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401. Rainfall Shocks, Markets, and Food Crises: Evidence from the Sahel

Author:
Jenny C. Aker
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
How do markets respond to extreme rainfall in West Africa? This paper examines the effect of weather on grain market performance in Niger, a country increasingly affected by drought and severe food crises over the past two decades. Using a dataset that combines information on rainfall, agricultural production, prices and transaction costs, I exploit rainfall variation to estimate the impact of drought on grain market performance between 1997 and 2006. Time series tests suggest that grain markets in Niger respond to supply shocks and that markets are more integrated during drought years. Exploiting the exogeneity of extreme rainfall in a difference-in-differences framework supports these findings: drought reduces grain price dispersion across markets. This impact is stronger as a higher percentage of markets are affected by drought, as was the case in 2004/2005, the year of a severe food crisis. The results suggest that early warning systems in West Africa should focus on the spatial impact of drought at the sub-regional level, as well as monitor prices in key forecasting markets during the harvest period.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Political Economy, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

402. Income Per Natural: Measuring Development for People rather than Places - Working Paper 143

Author:
Michael Clemens and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
It is easy to learn the average income of a resident of El Salvador or Albania. But there is no systematic source of information on the average income of a Salvadoran or Albanian. We create a first estimate a new statistic: income per natural—the mean annual income of persons born in a given country, regardless of where that person now resides. If income per capita has any interpretation as a welfare measure, exclusive focus on the nationally resident population can lead to substantial errors of the income of the natural population for countries where emigration is an important path to greater welfare. The estimates differ substantially from traditional measures of GDP or GNI per resident, and not just for a handful of tiny countries. Almost 43 million people live in a group of countries whose income per natural collectively is 50% higher than GDP per resident. For 1.1 billion people the difference exceeds 10%. We also show that poverty estimates are very different for national residents and naturals; for example, 26 percent of Haitian naturals who are not poor by the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States. These estimates are simply descriptive statistics and do not depend on any assumptions about how much of observed income differences across naturals is selection and how much is a pure location effect. Our conservative, if rough, estimate is that three quarters of this difference represents the effect of international migration on income per natural. This means that departing one's country of birth is today one of the most important sources of poverty reduction for a large portion of the developing world. If economic development is defined as rising human well being, then a residence-neutral measure of well-being emphasizes that crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development, it is economic development.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, Migration, Poverty, and Population
Political Geography:
United States and Albania

403. Prevention Failure: The Ballooning Entitlement Burden of U.S. Global AIDS Treatment Spending and What to Do About It - Working Paper 144

Author:
Mead Over
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
U.S. global AIDS spending is helping to prolong the lives of more than a million people and is widely seen as a foreign policy and humanitarian success. Yet this success contains the seeds of a future crisis. Life-long treatment costs are increasing as those on treatment live longer, and the number of new HIV infections continues to outpace the number of people receiving treatment. Escalating treatment costs coupled with neglected prevention measures threaten to squeeze out U.S. spending on other global health needs, even to the point of consuming half of the entire U.S. foreign assistance budget by 2016.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

404. The Place Premium: Wage Differences for Identical Workers across the U.S. Border - Working Paper 148

Author:
Michael Clemens, Lant Pritchett, and Claudio E. Montenegro
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We compare the wages of workers inside the United States to the wages of observably identical workers outside the United States—controlling for country of birth, country of education, years of education, work experience, sex, and rural-urban residence. This is made possible by new and uniquely rich microdata on the wages of over two million individual formal-sector wage-earners in 43 countries. We then use five independent methods to correct these estimates for unobserved differences between the productivity of migrants and non-migrants, as well as for the wage effects of natural barriers to international movement in the absence of policy barriers. We also introduce a selection model to estimate how migrants' wage gains depend on their position in the distribution of unobserved wage determinants both at the origin and at the destination, as well as the relationship between these positions. For example, in the median wage gap country, a typical Bolivian-born, Bolivian-educated, prime-age urban male formal-sector wage worker with moderate schooling makes 4 times as much in the US as in Bolivia. Following all adjustments for selectivity and compensating differentials we estimate that the wages of a Bolivian worker of equal intrinsic productivity, willing to move, would be higher by a factor of 2.7 solely by working in the United States. While this is the median, this ratio is as high as 8.4 (for Nigeria). We document that (1) for many countries, the wage gaps caused by barriers to movement across international borders are among the largest known forms of wage discrimination; (2) these gaps represent one of the largest remaining price distortions in any global market; and (3) these gaps imply that imply allowing labor mobility can reduce a given household's poverty to a much greater degree than most known in situ antipoverty interventions.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Nigeria, and Bolivia

405. Why Warner-Lieberman Failed and How to Get America's Working Families behind the Next Cap-and-Trade Bill

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Among partisans of greenhouse gas emissions regulation, the Senate's failure to pass the Warner-Lieberman cap-and-trade bill is often attributed to rampant denial, fueled by diehard political conservatism, energy-company propaganda, and government suppression of evidence on global warming. If so, the solution to the problem is electoral change, exposure of the propaganda, and public education. However, public concern is already so widespread that even leaders of the Southern Baptist Convention have acknowledged the need for action. In this paper, I consider two additional forces that have stymied carbon emissions regulation in developing countries. The first is the perception that costly carbon regulation promoted by the rich will inflict an unjust burden on the poor. The second is hostility to taxation of critical fossil-fuel resources that were developed long before climate risk was identified. My econometric analysis suggests that these same forces have significantly affected senators' votes on Warner-Lieberman. By implication, Congress is not likely to approve cap-and-trade legislation unless Americans with below-median incomes are compensated for expected losses. My analysis supports recent proposals for direct distribution of emissions permit auction revenues to American families on an equal per-capita basis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Government, Markets, and Politics
Political Geography:
America

406. Biofuels and the Food Price Crisis: A Survey of the Issues

Author:
Kimberly Elliott
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
While the precise contribution of biofuels to surging food prices is difficult to know, policies promoting production of the current generation of biofuels are not achieving their stated objectives of increased energy independence or reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Reaching the congressionally mandated goal of blending 15 billion gallons of renewable fuels in gasoline by 2015 would consume roughly 40 percent of the corn crop (based on recent production levels) while replacing just 7 percent of current gasoline consumption. Moreover, while it has long been known that the net energy and greenhouse gas emission benefits of corn-based ethanol are relatively small because its production is energy-intensive, recent scientific studies suggest that the current generation of biofuels, including biodiesel made from palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed, as well as corn-based ethanol, actually add to greenhouse gas emissions relative to petroleum-based fuels when land use changes are taken into account. That is, greenhouse gases are released when forests are cut down or grasslands cleared to plant biofuels, or food is planted on new acreage to replace crops diverted to fuel elsewhere. In sum, the food crisis adds urgency to the need to change these policies but does not change the basic fact that there is little justification for the current set of policies.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment

407. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficien t of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

408. Performance-based Incentives for Health: Demand- and Supply-Side Incentives in the Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social - Working Paper 119

Author:
Ferdinando Regalía and Leslie Castro
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social (RPS) is one of the first conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs implemented in a low-income country. Demand-side incentives, in the form of monetary transfers, are provided to poor households on condition that their children attend school and visit preventive health care providers. The design of the program is unique among CCT programs because these demand-side incentives are complemented by supply-side incentives aimed at improving the provision of health care. Health care providers are paid on the basis of their performance against predetermine d targets. Both private and nonprofit health care providers contracted by the government extend the coverage of services to previously underserved areas.
Topic:
Education, Health, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Nicaragua

409. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean - Working Paper 120

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In order to support poor families in the developing world to seek and use health care, a multi-pronged strategy is needed on both the supply and the demand side of health care. A demand-side program called Conditional Cash Transfer s (CCTs) strives to reduce poverty and also increase food consumption, school attendance, and use of preventive health care. Since 1997, seven countries in Latin America have implemented and evaluated CCT programs with health and nutrition components. The core of the program is based on encouraging poor mothers to seek preventive health services and attend health education talks by providing a cash in centive for their healthy behavior (with healthy behavior representing performance). Evaluations of these programs measured outputs in the utilization of services; health knowledge, attitudes, and practice; food consumption; the supply and quality of services; as well as outcomes in vaccination rates; nutritional status; morbidity; mortality; and fertility.
Topic:
Education, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

410. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Six Years of Results from Supply-Side Programs in Haiti - Working Paper 121

Author:
Rena Eichler, Paul Auxila, Uder Antoine, and Bernateau Desmangles
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
USAID launched a project in 1995 to deliver basic health services in Haiti. The project began by reimbursing contracted NGOs for documented expenditures or inputs. In 1999, payment was changed to being based partly on attaining performance targets or outputs. The project also provided technical assistance to the NGOs, along with opportunities to participate in an NGO network and other cross-fertilization activities. Remarkable improvements in key health indicators have been achieved in the six years since payment for performance was phased in. Although it is difficult to isolate the effects of performance-based payment on these improved indicators from the efforts aimed at strengthening NGOs and other factors, panel regression results suggest that the new payment incentives were responsible for considerable improvements in both immunization coverage and attended deliveries. Results for prenatal and postnatal care were less significant, perhaps suggesting a strong patient behavioral element that is not under the influence of provider actions.
Topic:
Development, Education, Health, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Haiti

411. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: A Way to Improve Tuberculosis Detection and Treatment Completion?

Author:
Rena Eichler, Diana Weil, and Alexandra Beith
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tuberculosis is a public health emergency in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Of the estimated 1.7 million deaths from TB, 98 percent are in the developing world, the majority being among the poor. In order to reach the MDG and the Stop TB partnership targets for 2015, TB detection rates need to double, treatment success rates must increase to more than 7075 percent, and strategies to address HIV-associated TB and multi-drug resistant TB must be aggressively expanded. DOTS, the internationally-recommended TB control strategy is the foundation of TB control efforts worldwide. A standard recording and monitoring system built on routine service-based data allows nearly all countries in the world to track progress in case detection and treatment completion through routine monitoring. This provides a good base for measuring the impact of different strategies for improving TB control outcomes.
Topic:
Health, International Organization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Asia

412. It's One World Out There: The Global Consensus on Selecting the World Bank's Next President

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In May 2007 CGD launched an online survey of the global development community on three issues: the selection process for the next World Bank president; criteria for rating the candidates; and actual ratings for nine candidates who had been named by the international media. Between May 22 and May 31, CGD received nearly 700 responses from people whose characteristic s reflect the diversity of the international development community. Survey participants represent 71 nations; all world regions; high-, middle- and low-income countries; a variety of professional affiliations; and all adult age groups. About 30% of respondents are women.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Organization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

413. The Provision of Banking Services in Latin America: Obstacles and Recommendations

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The depth of and access to financial services provided by banks throughout Latin America are extremely low in spite of its recognized importance for economic activity, employment and poverty alleviation. Low financial depth and access hurts the poor the most and is due to a variety of obstacles that are presented in this paper in four categories, along with recommendations to overcome them. The first category groups socio-economic obstacles that undercut the demand for financial services of large segments of the population. The second category identifies problems in the operations of the banking sector that impedes the adequate provision of financial services to households and firms. The third category captures institutional deficiencies, with emphasis on the quality of the legal framework and the governability of the countries in the region. The fourth category identifies regulations that tend to distort the provision of banking services. Recommendations to confront these obstacles include innovative proposals that take into consideration the political constraints facing individual countries. Some of the policy recommendations include: public-private partnerships to improve financial literacy, the creation of juries specialized in commercial activities to support the rights of borrowers and creditors, and the approval of regulation to allow widespread usage of technological innovations to permit low-income families and small firms to gain access to financial services.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Latin America

414. Aiding Transparency: What We Can Learn About China Exim Bank's Concessional Loans

Author:
Paul Hubbard
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Chinese government, through the China Exim Bank, is pledging billions of dollars worth of concessional lending to the developing world. More information on these lending practices can be gleaned from Chinese language sources than is readily available in English. However, this material is insufficient to draw more than tentative conclusions about the real nature and scope of China's concessional lending. Over 48 countries have agreements with China for concessional loans. An average loan of US$20-30 million is made available to Chinese exporting firms to develop infrastructure and facilities in developing countries. While these loan sizes are not huge when compared to other aid flows, China's status as the dominant lender of concessional loans amongst some recipients makes this program significant. Finally, it is still not clear if the loans could be considered Official Development Assistance according to the DAC definition.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

415. Does Influence-Peddling Impact Industrial Competition? Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Africa

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Manju Kedia Shah, and Gaiv Tata
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Prior research has emphasized that the high costs and risks arising from a poor investment climate—lack of clear property rights, macro-instability , the burden of regulation and taxation, poor infrastructure, lack of finance, and lack of human capital—have impeded the development of the private sector in sub-Saharan Africa, despite adoption of structural adjustment and liberalization policies. Given the resulting wide differentials in productivity, it is not surprising that most of the African manufacturing sector has not been competitive in exports. However, trade liberalization should have had greater impact on domestic markets for manufactured goods in Africa, leading to either a rapid decline in the size of the manufacturing sector due to import competition, or to a rapid increase in productivity of surviving enterprises. In fact, neither has happened to any significant degree over the last 20 years.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

416. How Do the BRICs Stack Up? Adding Brazil, Russia, India, and China to the Environment Component of the Commitment to Development Index

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Commitment to Development Index (CDI) ranks 21 of the world's richest countries on their dedication to policies that benefit the five billion people living in poorer nations. Moving beyond simple comparisons of foreign aid, the CDI ranks countries on seven themes: quantity and quality of foreign aid, openness to developing-country exports, policies that influence investment, migration policies, stewardship of the global environment, security policies and support for creation and dissemination of new technologies.
Topic:
Environment and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Brazil

417. Generation of Political Priority for Global Health Initiatives: A Framework and Case Study of Maternal Mortality

Author:
Jeremy Shiffman and Stephanie Smith
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Why do some global health initiatives receive priority from international and national political leaders while others receive minimal attention? We propose a framework for analyzing this question consisting of four categories of factors: the strength of the actors involved in the initiative, the power of the ideas they use to frame the issue, the nature of the political contexts in which they operate, and characteristics of the issue itself.
Topic:
Health, International Cooperation, and Politics

418. Reflections on the Macro Foundations of the Middle Class in the Developing World

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this working paper I define inclusive growth as growth conducive to increasing the size and economic command of the middle class. I suggest a definition of the middle class based on absolute and relative measures of country-based income distributions, and present evidence of change in the size of the “middle class” for selected developing countries. I then review how macroeconomic policies shape the environment and incentives for inclusive growth, focusing on three areas: fiscal discipline, the more rule-based the better; a fair tax and redistribution system; and a business friendly exchange rate.
Topic:
Education and Poverty
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Central America

419. The Pentagon and Global Development: Making Sense of the DoD's Expanding Role

Author:
Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
One of the most striking trends in U.S. foreign aid policy is the surging role of the Department of Defense (DoD). The Pentagon now accounts for over 20 percent of U.S. official development assistance (ODA). DoD has also expanded its provision of non-ODA assistance, including training and equipping of foreign military forces in fragile states. These trends raise concerns that U.S. foreign and development policies may become subordinated to a narrow, short-term security agenda at the expense of broader, longer-term diploma tic goals and institution-building efforts in the developing world. We find that the overwhelming bulk of ODA provided directly by DoD goes to Iraq and Afghanistan, which are violent environments that require the military to take a lead role through instruments like Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the use of Commanders' Emergency Response Program (CERP) funds. This funding surge is in principle temporary and likely to disappear when the U.S. involvement in both wars ends. But beyond these two conflicts, DoD has expanded (or proposes to expand) its operations in the developing world to include a number of activities that might be more appropriately undertaken by the State Department, USAID and other civilian actors. These initiatives include: the use of “Section 1206” authorities to train and equip foreign security forces; the establishment of the new Combatant Command for Africa (AFRICOM); and the administration's proposed Building Global Partnerships (BGP) Act, which would expand DoD's assistance authorities.
Topic:
Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia

420. Moving Toward A Consensus on Climate Policy: The Essential Role of Global Public Disclosure

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Among climate scientists, there is no longer any serious debate about whether greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are altering the earth' s climate. There is also a broad consensus on two issues related to reducing emissions. First, developing countries must be full participants in global emissions control, because they will be most heavily impacted by global warming, and because they are rapidly approaching parity with developed countries in the scale of their emissions. Second, efficient emissions control will require carbon pricing via market-based instruments (charges or cap-and-trade). These points of consensus are sufficient to establish a clear way forward, despite continued disagreements over the choice of specific instrument and the appropriate carbon charge level. Since all market-based systems that regulate emissions sources require the same emissions information, the international community should immediately establish an institution mandated to collect, verify and publicly disclose information about emissions from all significant global carbon sources. Its mandate should extend to best-practice estimation and disclosure of emissions sources in countries that initially refuse to participate. This institution will serve four purposes. First, it will lay the necessary foundation for implementing any market-based system of emissions source regulation. Second, it will provide an excellent credibility test, since a country's acceptance of full disclosure will signal its true willingness to participate in globally-efficient emissions reduction. Third, global public disclosure will itself reduce carbon emissions, by focusing stakeholder pressure on major emitters and providing reputational reward s for clean producers. Fourth, disclosure will make it very hard to cheat once market-based instruments are implemented. This will be essential for preserving the credibility of an international agreement to reduce emissions.
Topic:
Environment, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

421. Reviving Economic Growth in Liberia

Author:
Steve Radelet
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Liberia was decimated by 25 years of gross economic mismanagement and 14 years of brutal civil war. GDP fell by over 90% in less than two decades, one of the largest economic collapses in the world since World War II. This paper explores the challenges in reinvigorating rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth in the post-war environment. It stresses the importance of not just reigniting growth, but rebuilding the economy in a way that avoids the substantial income concentration of the past and creates significant economic opportunities to groups that were marginalized and excluded in the past. It examines the new government's progress so far, including the major steps it has taken in its first 18 months and the unique way that it has organized government-donor relations.
Topic:
Development, Government, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

422. Putting the Power of Transparency in Context: Information's Role in Reducing Corruption in Uganda's Education Sector

Author:
Paul Hubbard
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
One of the popular stories told (and taught) in development circles is how corruption was slashed in Uganda simply by publishing the amount of monthly grants to schools. This paper takes a deeper look at the facts behind the Uganda story and finds that while information did indeed play a critical role, the story is much more complicated than we have been led to believe. A dramatic drop did occur in the percentage of funds being diverted from Uganda's capitation grant. But to attribute this leakage solely to the monthly release of grant data by the government risks ignoring the major funding in which this transparency campaign was imbedded.
Topic:
Education and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

423. Inexcusable Absence: Why 60 Million Girls Still Aren't in School and What to do About It

Author:
Marlaine Lockheed and Maureen Lewis
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The images of girls returning to school in Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban drew attention to the lack of educational opportunities for girls all too common in many developing countries. Girls' education is indisputably crucial to development, and the development community has worked hard to get more of them into school. The result: since 1960, there have been remarkable increases in primary school enrollment rates for both boys and girls in developing countries. In most countries, girls' participation has converged with that of boys, bringing gender equity to the educational systems of many poor countries. But the international community has largely overlooked a key issue: that out of the remaining 60 million girls ages 6-11 still not in school, 70 percent belong to socially excluded groups.
Topic:
International Relations, Education, Gender Issues, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

424. Liberia's External Debt: Moving Towards Comprehensive Debt Relief

Author:
Steven Radelet
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this essay, CGD senior fellow Steve Radelet describes Liberia's debt situation and the key issues in moving forward on debt relief with the IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank and bilateral creditors. He explains why it is important for Liberia's recovery that the international community act quickly and outlines the key steps necessary for Liberia to achieve a debt deal before the end of 2007.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

425. Generating Political Priority for Public Health Causes in Developing Countries: Implications From a Study on Maternal Mortality

Author:
Jeremy Shiffman
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Why do some serious health issues—such as HIV/AIDS—get considerable attention and others—such as malaria and collapsing health systems—get very little? Why and under what conditions do political leaders consider an issue worthy of sustained attention, and back up that attention with money and other resources? In this CGD Brief, visiting fellow Jeremy Shiffman, an associate professor of public administration at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University, discusses nine factors that influenced the degree to which national leaders in five countries made one public health issue—maternal mortality—a political priority. Pregnancy-related complications are the leading cause of mortality globally among adult women of reproductive age, with more than half a million deaths annually. But in some countries maternal health has become a priority and maternal deaths have fallen, while in other countries this has not yet occurred. Drawing on his comparison of these countries, Shiffman offers recommendations for public health priority-setting in developing countries. His bottom line: attaining public health goals is as much a political as it is a medical or technical challenge; success requires not only appropriate technical interventions but also effective political strategies.
Topic:
Globalization, Health, Political Economy, and Third World

426. The Provision of Banking Services in Latin America: Obstacles and Recommendations

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The depth of and access to financial services provided by banks throughout Latin America are extremely low in spite of its recognized importance for economic activity, employment and poverty alleviation. Low financial depth and access hurts the poor the most and is due to a variety of obstacles that are presented in this paper in four categories, along with recommendations to overcome them. The first category groups socio-economic obstacles that undercut the demand for financial services of large segments of the population. The second category identifies problems in the operations of the banking sector that impedes the adequate provision of financial services to households and firms. The third category captures institutional deficiencies, with emphasis on the quality of the legal framework and the governability of the countries in the region. The fourth category identifies regulations that tend to distort the provision of banking services. Recommendations to confront these obstacles include innovative proposals that take into consideration the political constraints facing individual countries. Some of the policy recommendations include: public-private partnerships to improve financial literacy, the creation of juries specialized in commercial activities to support the rights of borrowers and creditors, and the approval of regulation to allow widespread usage of technological innovations to permit low-income families and small firms to gain access to financial services.
Topic:
Political Economy and Third World
Political Geography:
Latin America

427. A Short Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The “difference” and “system” generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for dynamic panel models are growing steadily in popularity. The estimators are designed for panels with short time dimensions (T), and by default they generate instruments sets whose number grows quadratically in T. The dangers associated with having many instruments relative to observations are documented in the applied literature. The instruments can overfit endogenous variables, failing to expunge their endogenous components and biasing coefficient estimates. Mean while they can vitiate the Hansen J test for joint validity of those instruments, as well as the difference-in-Sargan/Hansen test for subsets of instruments. The weakness of these specification tests is a particular concern for system GMM, whose distinctive instruments are only valid under a non-trivial assumption. Judging by current practice, many researchers do not fully appreciate that popular implementations of these estimators can by default generate results that simultaneously are invalid yet appear valid. The potential for type I errors—false positives—is therefore substantial, especially after amplification by publication bias. This paper explains the risks and illustrates them with reference to two early applications of the estimators to economic growth, Forbes (2000) on income inequality and Levine, Loayza, and Beck (LLB, 2000) on financial sector development. Endogenous causation proves hard to rule out in both papers. Going forward, for results from these GMM estimators to be credible, researchers must report the instrument count and aggressively test estimates and specification test results for robustness to reductions in that count.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World

428. Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia

Author:
Peter Timmer and Neil McCulloch
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

429. What Have IMF Programs With Low-Income Countries Assumed About Aid Flows?

Author:
David Goldsbrough and Ben Elberger
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper examines the nature of aid projections in IMF programs with low-income countries. On average, IMF projections of net aid increased sharply in the first year of programs but tapered off in subsequent years. Projections were also significantly more optimistic in countries with low initial levels of aid but differed little across regions. Most notably, projections of net aid to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa following the Gleneagles Summit are significantly more pessimistic than the path implied by commitments to double aid to Africa by 2010. This pattern is strong throughout the group with only two Sub-Saharan African countries showing increases in net aid consistent with the Gleneagles commitments.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Poverty, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Africa

430. Cost-Effective Prevention of Diarrheal Diseases: A Critical Review

Author:
Michael Kremer and Alix Peterson Zwane
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper critically reviews the existing research on the cost-effective prevention and treatment of diarrheal diseases, and identifies research priorities in this area aimed at finding ways to reduce the diarrheal disease burden. In contrast to the empirical knowledge base that exists for traditional child health programs to reduce diarrheal morbidity and mortality, evidence on the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various environmental health interventions is limited and subject to significant methodological concerns. There is a limited understanding of the determinants of long-term water and sanitation technology adoption and behavior change at the individual level. Even less is known about how collective action problems in water and sanitation infrastructure maintenance can be overcome. An agenda for future research includes evaluating alternative transmission interruption mechanisms, improving understanding of the determinants of individual-level technology adoption in the water and sanitation sector, and assessing the quality of infrastructure maintenance under different management schemes.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty

431. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficient of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China

432. Performance-based Incentives for Health: Demand- and Supply-Side Incentives in the Nicaraguan Red de Protección Social

Author:
Ferdinando Regalía and Leslie Castro
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social (RPS) is one of the first conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs implemented in a low-income country. Demand-side incentives, in the form of monetary transfers, are provided to poor households on condition that their children attend school and visit preventive health care providers. The design of the program is unique among CCT programs because these demand-side incentives are complemented by supply-side incentives aimed at improving the provision of health care. Health care providers are paid on the basis of their performance against predetermined targets. Both private and nonprofit health care providers contracted by the government extend the coverage of services to previously underserved areas.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

433. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In order to support poor families in the developing world to seek and use health care, a multi-pronged strategy is needed on both the supply and the demand side of health care. A demand-side program called Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) strives to reduce poverty and also increase food consumption, school attendance, and use of preventive health care. Since 1997, seven countries in Latin America have implemented and evaluated CCT programs with health and nutrition components. The core of the program is based on encouraging poor mothers to seek preventive health services and attend health education talks by providing a cash incentive for their healthy behavior (with healthy behavior representing performance). Evaluations of these programs measured outputs in the utilization of services; health knowledge, attitudes, and practice; food consumption; the supply and quality of services; as well as outcomes in vaccination rates; nutritional status; morbidity; mortality; and fertility.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Latin America

434. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Six Years of Results from Supply-Side Programs in Haiti

Author:
Amanda Glassman, Jessica Todd, and Marie Gaarder
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
USAID launched a project in 1995 to deliver basic health services in Haiti. The project began by reimbursing contracted NGOs for documented expenditures or inputs. In 1999, payment was changed to being based partly on attaining performance targets or outputs. The project also provided technical assistance to the NGOs, along with opportunities to participate in an NGO network and other cross-fertilization activities. Remarkable improvements in key health indicators have been achieved in the six years since payment for performance was phased in. Although it is difficult to isolate the effects of performance-based payment on these improved indicators from the efforts aimed at strengthening NGOs and other factors, panel regression results suggest that the new payment incentives were responsible for considerable improvements in both immunization coverage and attended deliveries. Results for prenatal and postnatal care were less significant, perhaps suggesting a strong patient behavioral element that is not under the influence of provider actions.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

435. Performance-Based Incentives for Health: A Way to Improve Tuberculosis Detection and Treatment Completion?

Author:
Rena Eichler, Diana Weil, and Alexandra Beith
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Tuberculosis is a public health emergency in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Of the estimated 1.7 million deaths from TB, 98 percent are in the developing world, the majority being among the poor. In order to reach the MDG and the Stop TB partnership targets for 2015, TB detection rates need to double, treatment success rates must increase to more than 7075 percent, and strategies to address HIV-associated TB and multi-drug resistant TB must be aggressively expanded. DOTS, the internationally-recommended TB control strategy is the foundation of TB control efforts worldwide. A standard recording and monitoring system built on routine service-based data allows nearly all countries in the world to track progress in case detection and treatment completion through routine monitoring. This provides a good base for measuring the impact of different strategies for improving TB control outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Health, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

436. Do Visas Kill? Health Effects of African Health Professional Emigration

Author:
Michael Clemens
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The emigration of highly skilled workers can in theory lower social welfare in the migrant-sending country. If such workers produce a good whose consumption conveys a positive externality—such as nurses and doctors in a very poor country—the loss can be greater, and welfare can even decline globally. Policies to impede emigration thus have the potential to raise sending-country and global welfare. This study uses a new database of health worker emigration from Africa to test whether exogenous decreases in emigration raise the number of domestic health professionals, increase the mass availability of basic primary care, or improve a range of public health outcomes. It identifies the effect through two separate natural quasi-experiments arising from the colonial division of the African continent. These produce exogenous changes in emigration comparable to those that would result from different immigration policies in principal receiving countries. The results suggest that Africa's generally low staffing levels and poor public health conditions are the result of factors entirely unrelated to international movements of health professionals. A simple model proposes that such results would be explained by segmentation of health workforce labor markets in the sending countries. The results further suggest that emigration has caused a greater production of health workers in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Health, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa

437. Do No Harm: Aid, Weak Institutions, and the Missing Middle in Africa

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The implicit assumption of the donor community is that Africa is trapped by its poverty, and that aid is necessary if Africa is to escape the trap. In this note I suggest an alternative assumption: that Africa is caught in an institutional trap, signaled and reinforced by the small share of income of its independent middle-income population. Theory and historical experience elsewhere suggest that a robust middle-income group contributes critically to the creation and sustenance of healthy institutions, particularly healthy institutions of the state. I propose that if external aid is to be helpful for institution-building in Africa's weak and fragile states, donors need to emphasize not providing more aid but minimizing the risks more aid poses for this group in Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

438. Why Doesn't Africa Get More Equity Investment? Frontier Stock Markets, Firm Size and Asset Allocations of Global Emerging Market Funds

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Scott Standley, and Todd Moss
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper addresses the question of investment in sub-Saharan African listed securities by examining characteristics of the continent's 15 equity markets, the rise and fall of African regional funds, and the asset allocation trends for global emerging market (GEM) funds. The data shows that South Africa is now a leading destination of capital, but that few managers invest elsewhere on the continent. However, we find that African markets are not treated differently than other markets and present evidence that small market size and low levels of liquidity are a binding deterrent for foreign institutional investors. Thus, orthodox market variables rather than market failure appear to explain Africa's low absolute levels of inward equity flows. The paper then turns to new data from firm surveys to explore why African firms remain small. The implications of our findings are threefold: (a) efforts to encourage greater private investment in these markets should concentrate on domestic audiences and specialized regional funds, (b) the depth and success of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange can perhaps be better utilized to benefit other parts of the continent, and (c) any long-term strategy should concentrate on the underlying barriers to firm entry and growth.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

439. Group Versus Individual Liability: A Field Experiment in the Philippines

Author:
Xavier Giné and Dean Karlan
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Group liability is often portrayed as the key innovation that led to the explosion of the microcredit movement, which started with the Grameen Bank in the 1970s and continues on today with hundreds of institutions around the world. Group liability claims to improve repayment rates and lower transaction costs when lending to the poor by providing incentives for peers to screen, monitor and enforce each other's loans. However, some argue that group liability creates excessive pressure and discourages good clients from borrowing, jeopardizing both growth and sustainability. Therefore, it remains unclear whether group liability improves the lender's overall profitability and the poor's access to financial markets. We worked with a bank in the Philippines to conduct a field experiment to examine these issues. We randomly assigned half of the 169 pre-existing group liability “centers” of approximately twenty women to individual-liability centers (treatment) and kept the other half as-is with group liability (control). We find that converting to individual liability from group liability but keeping other aspects of group lending such as weekly repayment meeting does not affect the repayment rate, but leads to higher outreach by attracting new clients.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

440. Credit Elasticities in Less-Developed Economies: Implications for Microcredit

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Policymakers often prescribe that microfinance institutions increase interest rates to eliminate reliance on subsidies. This strategy makes sense if the poor are rate insensitive: then microlenders increase profitability (or achieve sustainability) without reducing the poor's access to credit. We test the assumption of price inelastic demand using randomized trials conducted by a consumer lender in South Africa. The demand curves are downward-sloping, and steep for price increases relative to the lender's standard rates. We also find that loan size is far more responsive to changes in loan maturity than to changes in interest rates, which is consistent with binding liquidity constraints.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

441. Observing Unobservables: Identifying Information Asymmetries with a Consumer Credit Field Experiment

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Information asymmetries are important in theory but difficult to identify in practice. We estimate the presence and importance of adverse selection and moral hazard in a consumer credit market using a new field experiment methodology. We randomized 58,000 direct mail offers issued by a major South African lender along three dimensions: 1) an initial "offer interest rate" featured on a direct mail solicitation; 2) a "contract interest rate" that was revealed only after a borrower agreed to the initial offer rate; and 3) a dynamic repayment incentive that extended preferential pricing on future loans to borrowers who remained in good standing. These three randomizations, combined with complete knowledge of the Lender's information set, permit identification of specific types of private information problems. Our setup distinguishes adverse selection from moral hazard effects on repayment, and thereby generates unique evidence on the existence and magnitudes of specific credit market frictions. We find evidence of moral hazard and weaker evidence for adverse selection. A rough calibration suggests that perhaps 7% to 16% of default is due to asymmetric information problems. Asymmetric information may help explain the prevalence of credit constraints even in a market that specializes in financing high-risk borrowers at very high rates.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
South Africa

442. Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Author:
Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Expanding credit access is a key ingredient of development strategies worldwide. Microfinance practitioners, policymakers, and donors have ambitious goals for expanding access, and seek efficient methods for implementing and evaluating expansion. There is less consensus on the role of consumer credit in expansion initiatives. Some microfinance institutions are moving beyond entrepreneurial credit and offering consumer loans. But many practitioners and policymakers are skeptical about “unproductive” lending. These concerns are fueled by academic work highlighting behavioral biases that may induce consumers to overborrow. We estimate the impacts of a consumer credit supply expansion using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. A South African lender relaxed its risk assessment criteria by encouraging its loan officers to approve randomly selected marginal rejected applications. We estimate the resulting impacts using new survey data on borrower behavior and well-being, and administrative data on loan repayment. We find that the marginal loans increased credit access and produced measurable benefits in the form of increased employment, reduced hunger, and reduced poverty. The marginal loans also appear to have been profitable for the lender. The results must be interpreted with caution but suggest that consumer credit expansions can be welfare-improving.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

443. Female Empowerment: Impact of a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines

Author:
Dean Karlan, Wesley Yin, and Nava Ashraf
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Female “empowerment” has increasingly become a policy goal, both as an end to itself and as a means to achieving other development goals. Microfinance in particular has often been argued, but not without controversy, to be a tool for empowering women. Here, using a randomized controlled trial, we examine whether access to an individually-held commitment savings product leads to an increase in female decision-making power within the household. We find positive impacts, particularly for women who have below median decision-making power in the baseline, and we find this leads to a shift towards female-oriented durables goods purchased in the household.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

444. AIDS Treatment and Intrahousehold Resource Allocations: Children's Nutrition and Schooling in Kenya

Author:
Markus Goldstein, Joshua Graff Zivin, and Harsha Thirumurthy
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The provision of life-saving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment has emerged as a key component of the global response to HIV/AIDS, but very little is known about the impact of this intervention on the welfare of children in the households of treated persons. We estimate the impact of ARV treatment on children's schooling and nutrition outcomes using longitudinal household survey data collected in collaboration with a treatment program in western Kenya. We find that children's weekly hours of school attendance increase by over 20 percent within six months after treatment is initiated for the adult household member. For boys in treatment households, these increases closely follow their reduced market labor supply. Similarly, young children's short-term nutritional status—as measured by their weight-for-height Z-score—also improves dramatically. We also present evidence that the impact of treatment is considerably larger when compared to the counterfactual scenario of no ARV treatment. The results illustrate how intrahousehold allocations of time and resources are altered in response to significant health improvements. Since the improvements in children's schooling and nutrition at these critical early ages will affect their socio-economic outcomes and wellbeing in adulthood, the widespread provision of ARV treatment is likely to generate significant long-run welfare benefits.
Topic:
Health and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

445. Why Are There So Few Black-Owned Firms in Africa? Preliminary Results from Enterprise Survey Data

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran and Manju Kedia Shah
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Much of the growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade has come from extractive industries, rather than from private, entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, non-extractive activity in the private sector is often dominated by firms owned by ethnic minorities. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the formal private sector in five countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular emphasis on Black African-owned (indigenous) firms. We find that indigenous firms start smaller and grow more slowly; however their rate of growth is positively influenced by whether the owner-entrepreneur has a university degree. We do not find overwhelming evidence that credit is the binding constraint but we do find that indigenous firms get less access to trade credit than firms owned by minority entrepreneurs. Finally, we discuss policy solutions that might enable a larger number of indigenous entrepreneurs to enter and survive in a vibrant, multi-ethnic private sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

446. An Index of Donor Performance

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Commitment to Development Index of the Center for Global Development rates 21 rich countries on the “development-friendliness” of their policies. It is revised and updated annually. The component on foreign assistance combines quantitative and qualitative measures of official aid, and of fiscal policies that support private charitable giving. The quantitative measure uses a net transfers concept, as distinct from the net flows concept in the net Official Development Assistance measure of the Development Assistance Committee. The qualitative factors are: a penalty for tying aid; a discounting system that favors aid to poorer, better-governed recipients; and a penalty for “project proliferation.” The charitable giving measure is based on an estimate of the share of observed private giving to developing countries that is attributable to a) lower overall taxes or b) specific tax incentives for giving. De-spite the adjustments, overall results are dominated by differences in quantity of official aid given. This is because while there is a seven-fold range in net concessional transfers/GDP among the scored countries, variation in overall aid quality across donors appears far lower, and private giving is generally small. Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden score highest while the largest donors in absolute terms, the United States and Japan, rank at or near the bottom. Standings by the 2006 methodology have been relatively stable since 1995.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Norway, and Netherlands

447. A Millennium Learning Goal: Measuring Real Progress in Education

Author:
Lant Pritchett, Amer Hasan, and Deon Filmer
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Millennium Development Goal for primary schooling completion has focused attention on a measurable output indicator to monitor increases in schooling in poor countries. We argue the next step, which moves towards the even more important Millennium Learning Goal, is to monitor outcomes of learning achievement. We demonstrate that even in countries meeting the MDG of primary completion, the majority of youth are not reaching even minimal competency levels, let alone the competencies demanded in a globalized environment. Even though Brazil is on track to the meet the MDG, our estimates are that 78 percent of Brazilian youth lack even minimally adequate competencies in mathematics and 96 percent do not reach what we posit as a reasonable global standard of adequacy. Mexico has reached the MDG—but 50 percent of youth are not minimally competent in math and 91 percent do not reach a global standard. While nearly all countries' education systems are expanding quantitatively nearly all are failing in their fundamental purpose. Policymakers, educators and citizens need to focus on the real target of schooling: adequately equipping their nation's youth for full participation as adults in economic, political and social roles. A goal of school completion alone is an increasingly inadequate guide for action. With a Millennium Learning Goal, progress of the education system will be judged on the outcomes of the system: the assessed mastery of the desired competencies of an entire age cohort—both those in school and out of school. By focusing on the learning achievement of all children in a cohort an MLG eliminates the false dichotomy between “access/enrollment” and “quality of those in school”: reaching an MLG depends on both.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Education
Political Geography:
Brazil and Mexico

448. Fragile States and U.S. Foreign Assistance: Show Me the Money

Author:
Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Bush administration has increasingly acknowledged that weak and failing states represent the core of today's global development challenge. It has also recognized that such states are potential threats to international peace and security. But despite the rhetoric, it has yet to formulate a coherent strategy around fragile states or commit adequate resources towards engaging them. Excluding funding for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and HIV/AIDS, the administration's FY07 budget request proposes to spend just $1.1 billion in direct bilateral assistance to fragile states—little more than a dollar per person per year. In this new working paper, CGD research fellow Stewart Patrick and program associate Kaysie Brown urge U.S. policymakers to consider increasing aid to fragile states and to think creatively about how and when to engage these troubled countries. The authors also call for the policy community to integrate non-aid instruments into a more coherent government strategy. To put its money where its mouth is, the U.S. should treat aid to weak and failing states as a form of venture capital, with high risk but potentially high rewards.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

449. New data on African health professionals abroad

Author:
Gunilla Petterson and Michael A. Clemens
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The migration of doctors and nurses from Africa to developed countries has raised fears of an African medical brain drain. But empirical research on the causes and effects of the phenomenon has been hampered by a lack of systematic data on the extent of African health workers' international movements. We use destination-country census data to estimate the number of African-born doctors and professional nurses working abroad in a developed country circa 2000, and compare this to the stocks of these workers in each country of origin. Approximately 65,000 African-born physicians and 70,000 African-born professional nurses were working overseas in a developed country in the year 2000. This represents about one fifth of African-born physicians in the world, and about one tenth of African-born professional nurses. The fraction of health professionals abroad varies enormously across African countries, from 1% to over 70% according to the occupation and country. These numbers are the first standardized, systematic, occupation-specific measure of skilled professionals working in developed countries and born in a large number of developing countries.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa

450. Social Cohesion, Institutions

Author:
William Easterly, Michael Woolcock, and Jozef Ritzen
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We present evidence that measures of “social cohesion,” such as income inequality and ethnic fractionalization, endogenously determine institutional quality, which in turn casually determines growth.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus