Search

Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Center for Global Development

301. Economic Dynamics and Forest Clearing: A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Indonesia

Author:
David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, Susmita Dasgupta, Dan Hammer, and Brian Blankespoor
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper uses a large panel database to investigate the determinants of forest clearing in Indonesian kabupatens since 2005. Our study incorporates short-run changes in prices and demand for palm oil and wood products, as well as the exchange rate, the real interest rate, land-use zoning, forest protection, the estimated opportunity cost of forested land, the quality of local governance, the poverty rate, population density, the availability of communications infrastructure, transport cost, and local rainfall and terrain slope. Our econometric results highlight the role of dynamic economic factors in forest clearing. We find significant roles for lagged changes in all the short-run economic variables—product prices, demands, the exchange rate and the real interest rate—as well as communications infrastructure, some types of commercial zoning, rainfall, and terrain slope. We find no significance for the other variables, and the absence of impact for protected-area status is particularly notable. Our results strongly support the model of forest clearing as an investment that is highly sensitive to expectations about future forest product prices and demands, as well as changes in the cost of capital (indexed by the real interest rate), the relative cost of local inputs (indexed by the exchange rate), and the cost of land clearing (indexed by local precipitation). By implication, the opportunity cost of forested land fluctuates widely with changes in international markets and decisions by Indonesia's financial authorities about the exchange and interest rates. Our results suggest that forest conservation programs are unlikely to succeed if they ignore such powerful forces.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Indonesia

302. The High Return to Private Schooling in a Low-Income Country

Author:
Tessa Bold, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, and Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Existing studies from the United States, Latin America, and Asia provide scant evidence that private schools dramatically improve academic performance relative to public schools. Using data from Kenya—a poor country with weak public institutions—we find a large effect of private schooling on test scores, equivalent to one full standard deviation. This finding is robust to endogenous sorting of more able pupils into private schools. The magnitude of the effect dwarfs the impact of any rigorously tested intervention to raise performance within public schools. Furthermore, nearly two thirds of private schools operate at lower cost than the median government school.
Topic:
Development, Education, Government, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Kenya, United States, Asia, and Latin America

303. More Money or More Development: What Have the MDGs Achieved?

Author:
Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
What have the MDGs achieved? And what might their achievements mean for any second generation of MDGs or MDGs 2.0? We argue that the MDGs may have played a role in increasing aid and that development policies beyond aid quantity have seen some limited improvement in rich countries (the evidence on policy change in poor countries is weaker). Further, there is some evidence of faster-than-expected progress improving quality of life in developing countries since the Millennium Declaration, but the contribution of the MDGs themselves in speeding that progress is—of course—difficult to demonstrate even assuming the MDGs induced policy changes after 2002. The paper concludes with reflections on what the experience of MDGs in terms of global goal setting has taught us and how things might be done differently if there were to be a new set of MDGs after 2015. Any MDGs 2.0 need targets that are set realistically and directly link aid flows to social policy change and to results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid

304. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Asia

305. Overselling Broadband: A Critique of the Recommendation of the Broadband Commission for Digital Development

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Broadband Commission for Digital Development is an ITU (UN International Telecommunications Union) and UNESCO–backed body set up to advocate for greater broadband access worldwide. The commission's Declaration of Broadband Inclusion for All and other reports call for governments to support ubiquitous fixed broadband access as a vital tool for economic growth and to reach the Millennium Development Goals. Examining the evidence, however, shows that the benefits of broadband are being oversold. Several points stand out: (i) the evidence for a large positive economic impact of broadband is limited; (ii) the impact of broadband rollout on achieving the MDGs would be marginal; (iii) there is little evidence ubiquitous broadband is needed for 'national competitiveness' or to benefit from opportunities like business process outsourcing; (iv) the costs of fixed universal broadband rollout dwarf available resources in developing countries; (and so) (v) the case for government subsidy of fixed broadband rollout is very weak. There are, however, some worthwhile policy reforms that could speed broadband rollout without demanding significant government expenditure.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
United Nations

306. Quid Pro Quo: Builders, Politicians, and Election Finance in India

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In developing countries where elections are costly and accountability mechanisms weak, politicians often turn to illicit means of financing campaigns. This paper examines one such channel of illicit campaign finance: India's real estate sector. Politicians and builders allegedly engage in a quid pro quo, whereby the former park their illicit assets with the latter, and the latter rely on the former for favorable dispensation. At election time, however, builders need to re-route funds to politicians as a form of indirect election finance. One observable implication is that the demand for cement, the indispensible raw material used in the sector, should contract during elections since builders need to inject funds into campaigns. Using a novel monthly-level data set, we demonstrate that cement consumption does exhibit a political business cycle consistent with our hypothesis. Additional tests provide confidence in the robustness and interpretation of our findings.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

307. Technologies, Rules, and Progress: The Case for Charter Cities

Author:
Paul Romer
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Non-resident fellow Paul Romer argues that the principal constraint to raising living standards in this century will come neither from scarce resources nor limited technologies. Rather it will come from our limited capacity to discover and implement new rules—new ideas about how to structure interactions among people, such as land titles, patents, and social norms. The central task of reducing global poverty is to find ways for developing countries to adopt new rules that are known to work better than the ones they have. Economists who advise leaders on policy have often overlooked why some good rules get adopted and others do not. But a better understanding of rules-that-change-rules could lead to breakthrough thinking about development policy. The special rules of China's Special Economic Zones, where new cities like Shenzhen could grow up, created small laboratories through which rules from Hong Kong spread to the mainland, helping unleash the largest and fastest reduction of poverty on record. Romer concludes that a new type of development policy would be to voluntarily charter new cities for the purpose of changing rules, using a range of new legal and political structures analogous to the ones that made Hong Kong and Shenzhen possible. The essay is adapted from a talk presented in Mexico City on October 2009, at the conference, “Challenges and Strategies for Promoting Economic Growth,” organized by Banco de México.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Mexico, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen

308. Financial Integration and Foreign Banks in Latin America: Do They Amplify External Financial Shocks?

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Arturo J. Galindo, and Alejandro Izquierdo
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper explores the impact of international financial integration on credit markets in Latin America. Using a cross-country dataset covering 17 Latin American countries between 1996 and 2008, the authors find that financial integration amplifies the impact of international financial shocks on aggregate credit and interestrate fluctuations. Despite this pernicious effect, the net impact of integration on deepening credit markets is positive and dominates for the large majority of states of nature. The paper also uses a detailed bank-level dataset covering more than 500 banks in Latin America for a similar time period to explore the role of financial integration—captured through the participation of foreign banks—in propagating external shocks. The authors find that interest rates charged and loans supplied by foreign-owned banks respond more to external financial shocks than those supplied by domestically owned banks. However, this result does not hold for all foreign banks: Spanish banks in the sample behave more like domestic banks and do not amplify the impact of foreign shocks on credit and interest rates. Important policy recommendations to avoid foreign banks' amplification of external financial shocks include the establishment of ring-fencing mechanisms, the development of early-warning systems, and the incorporation for agreements between domestic and foreign supervisors.
Topic:
Economics and Markets
Political Geography:
Latin America and Spain

309. The International Financial Crisis: Eight Lessons for and from Latin America

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The international financial crisis of 2008–09 exposed the strengths and weaknesses of the current paradigm of development in Latin America, a paradigm based on liberalized capital accounts and significantly improved macroeconomic conditions. This paper presents lessons derived from the crisis, not only for the region itself, but also for other developing countries that might seek economic growth in the context of greater integration to the international capital markets. Some of the lessons are not new but have been reinforced by the crisis, such as Latin America's imperative need for export diversification (not only in products but in partners). Other lessons break with longstanding myths about the region, such as its inability to undertake counter-cyclical policies—at least on the monetary side. Yet other lessons reflect new developments in the current growth paradigm, such as a renewed assessment of (1) the relative roles of foreign and domestic banks in shielding the financial system against external shocks and (2) the potential costs of adopting blanket international financial regulations that do not account for a country's degree of development. Taken together, the lessons in this paper bring a new sense of optimism for growth in Latin America.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America

310. A Labor Mobility Agenda for Development

Author:
Michael Clemens
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Rich countries have made efforts for half a century to help people in poor countries catch up to rich-country standards of living. Those efforts have included giving foreign aid, encouraging overseas investment, dismantling trade barriers, and spreading ideas and institutions. That is, their international development policy has been to encourage the globalization of almost all factors of production—except labor. So far, this policy has failed to cause the living standards of most people in most developing countries to converge with living standards in rich countries. But the globalization of labor—greater mobility for workers across borders—quickly and massively raises migrants' living standards toward those of rich countries. This paper argues that every rich country should consider its immigration policy to be part of its international development policy, and vice versa. A development policy that includes migration will be more effective; an immigration policy that includes development will better serve rich countries' ideals and interests. The paper also gives a non-technical review of new research on several common objections to unifying development policy and migration policy. One concrete way forward is for rich countries to greatly open up legal pathways for temporary labor movement.
Topic:
Globalization, Foreign Aid, and Labor Issues

311. From Predation to Production Post-conflict

Author:
Satish Chand
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper builds an analytical framework that models predation (banditry) and production as part of the choice of a rational utility-maximising agent. Aggregating this choice up for society produces equilibrium outcomes ranging from Utopia (where no one predates) to Amorphy (where everyone does). The intermediate position constitutes Anarchy where a mix of predation and production prevail. This framework shows that (i) organized conflict can lower welfare relative to the level that prevails without such organization; and, (ii) peacekeeping raises welfare, but the equilibrium is self-enforcing only with the requisite level of peacekeeping technology. The last is then used to analyse conditions under which peacekeeping arises endogenously and the potential (and catalytic) role for external assistance in the above.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Human Welfare, Peace Studies, and War

312. The Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries

Author:
David Wheeler, Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, and Brian Blankespoor
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Without international assistance, developing countries will adapt to climate change as best they can. Part of the cost will be absorbed by households and part by the public sector. Adaptation costs will themselves be affected by socioeconomic development, which will also be affected by climate change. Without a better understanding of these interactions, it will be difficult for climate negotiators and donor institutions to determine the appropriate levels and modes of adaptation assistance. This paper contributes by assessing the economics of adaptation to extreme weather events. We address several questions that are relevant for the international discussion: How will climate change alter the incidence of these events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically? How will future socioeconomic development, notably an increased focus on education and empowerment for women and girls, affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context?
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Third World, and Foreign Aid

313. Peace-Building without External Assistance: Lessons from Somaliland

Author:
Nicholas Eubank
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Since its secession from Somalia in 1991, the east-African nation of Somaliland has become one of the most democratic governments in eastern Africa. Yet Somaliland has never been recognized by the international community. This paper examines how this lack of recognition—and the consequent ineligibility for foreign financial assistance—has shaped Somaliland's political development. It finds evidence that Somaliland's ineligibility for foreign aid facilitated the development of accountable political institutions and contributed to the willingness of Somalilanders to engage constructively in the state-building process.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

314. The U.S. Aid "Surge" to Pakistan: Repeating a Failed Experiment? Lessons for U.S. Policymakers from the World Bank's Social-Sector Lending in the 1990s

Author:
Nancy Birdsall and Molly Kinder
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
During the 1990s, the World Bank and several donor partners provided a “surge” in external aid to support Pakistan's social sectors. Despite the millions of donor dollars spent, the program failed. Poverty was higher in Pakistan in 2004 than it was a decade earlier when the antipoverty program began. This working paper re-releases a CGD analysis of the World Bank's program, which was prepared in 2005 by CGD researchers Nancy Birdsall, Milan Vaishnav, and Adeel Malik. The analysis reports the many problems donors faced while working with Pakistan's government to improve health and education outcomes. A new preface by Nancy Birdsall and Molly Kinder identifies the key lessons from this massive donor experiment that are relevant today, as the United States and other donors prepare to increase their assistance to Pakistan to historic levels.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and Central Asia

315. Are Funding Decisions Based on Performance?

Author:
Nandini Oomman, Steven Rosenzweig, and Michael Bernstein
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
To what extent do the major funders of HIV/AIDS programs in developing countries use past performance to guide decisions about future funding? This question is important for those concerned with the effectiveness of the significant funding flows for the treatment, care, and prevention of HIV and AIDS: linking funding to performance can help ensure that the best programs are given continued resources (and the failing ones are not) and that program managers have the strongest incentives to perform at a high level and to improve the performance of their programs. Performance-based funding can also have unintended negative consequences. Linking funding to performance can also induce single-minded attention to specific targets to the exclusion of harder-to-measure but important outcomes and loss of integrity of information systems.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
United States

316. The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters

Author:
Kimberly Elliott, Antoine Bouët, David Laborde Debucquet, and Elisa Dienesch
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper examines the potential benefits and costs of providing duty-free, quota-free market access to the least developed countries (LDCs), and the effects of extending eligibility to other small and poor countries. Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model, it assesses the impact of scenarios involving different levels of coverage for products, recipient countries, and preference-giving countries on participating countries, as well as competing developing countries that are excluded. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the role that rich and emerging countries could play in helping poor countries to improve their trade performance and to assess the distribution of costs and benefits for developing countries and whether the potential costs for domestic producers are in line with political feasibility in preference-giving countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Third World

317. The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich and the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Inclusive growth is widely embraced as the central economic goal for developing countries, but the concept is not well defined in the development economics literature. Since the early 1990s, the focus has been primarily on pro-poor growth, with the "poor" being people living on less than $1 day, or in some regions $2 day. The idea of pro-poor growth emerged in the early 1990s as a counterpoint to a concern with growth alone (measured in per-capita income) and is generally defined as growth which benefits the poor as much or more than the rest of the population. Examples include conditional cash transfers, which target the poor while minimizing the fiscal burden on the public sector, and donors' emphasizing primary over higher education as an assured way to benefit the poor while investing in long-term growth through increases in human capital. Yet these pro-poor, inclusive policies are not necessarily without tradeoffs in fostering long-run growth. In this paper I argue that the concept of inclusive growth should go beyond the traditional emphasis on the poor (and the rest) and take into account changes in the size and economic command of the group conventionally defined as neither poor nor rich, i.e., the middle class.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, and Foreign Aid

318. Open Markets for the Poorest Countries: Trade Preferences That Work

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Trade preference programs are an important and underused tool for stimulating exports, creating jobs, reducing poverty, and promoting prosperity and stability in poor countries. While many rich countries provide special access for exports from the least developed countries (LDCs) to promote these benefits, the trade preferences often do not extend to the products that matter most to LDCs, such as agriculture and clothing. Improving these programs could make a major difference in the lives of the poor, while having minimal effects on production or exports in preference-giving countries because the affected trade is so small: less than 1 percent of global exports are from LDCs. And, in the longer term, improved trade preferences for LDCs will promote shared prosperity and stability in rich and poor countries alike. Recognizing the role of trade in poverty reduction, the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for poor countries call on high-income countries to provide duty-free, quota-free market access for the LDCs.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Third World

319. Less Smoke, More Mirrors: Where India Really Stands on Solar Power and Other Renewables

Author:
David Wheelter and Saurabh Shome
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Until recently, India's intransigent negotiating posture has conveyed the impression that it will not accept any carbon emissions limits without full compensation and more stringent carbon limitation from rich countries. However, our assessment of India's proposed renewable energy standard (RES) indicates that this impression is simply wrong. India is seriously considering a goal of 15 percent renewable energy in its power mix by 2020, despite the absence of any meaningful international pressure to cut emissions, no guarantees of compensatory financing, and a continuing American failure to adopt stringent emissions limits. If India moves ahead with this plan, it will promote a massive shift of new power capacity toward renewables within a decade. We estimate the incremental cost of this change from coal-fired to renewable power to be about $50 billion-an enormous sum for a society that must still cope with widespread extreme poverty. If India moves ahead with its current plan, it should give serious pause to those who have resisted U.S. carbon regulation on the grounds on that it will confer a cost advantage on "intransigent" countries such as India.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, America, and India

320. Are Borders Barriers? The Impact of International and Internal Ethnic Borders on Agricultural Markets in West Africa

Author:
Jenny C. Aker, Michael W. Klein, Stephen A. O'Connell, and Muzhe Yang
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper addresses two important economic issues for Africa: the contribution of national borders and ethnicity to market segmentation and integration between and within countries. Market pair regression analysis provides evidence of higher conditional price dispersion for both a grain and a cash crop between markets separated by the Niger-Nigeria border than between two markets located in the same country. A regression discontinuity analysis also confirms a significant price change at the international border. The international border effect is lower, however, if the cross-border markets share a common ethnicity. Ethnicity is also linked to higher price dispersion within Niger; we find a significant intranational border effect between markets in different ethnic regions of the country. This suggests that ethnic similarities diminishing international border effects could enhance international market integration, and ethnic differences could contribute to intranational market segmentation in sub-Saharan Africa. We provide suggestive evidence that the primary mechanism behind the internal border effect is related to the role of ethnicity in facilitating access to credit in agricultural markets. We argue that the results are not driven by differences in price volatility or observables across borders.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

321. The Washington Consensus: Assessing a Damaged Brand

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Augusto de la Torre, and Felipe Valencia Caicedo
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this paper we analyze the Washington Consensus, which at its original formulation reflected views not only from Washington but also from Latin America. We trace the life of the Consensus from a Latin American perspective in terms of evolving economic development paradigms. We document the extensive implementation of Consensus-style reforms in the region as well as the mismatch between reformers' expectations and actual outcomes, in terms of growth, poverty reduction, and inequality. We then present an assessment of what went wrong with the Washington Consensus-style reform agenda, using a taxonomy of views that put the blame, alternatively, on (i) shortfalls in the implementation of reforms combined with impatience regarding their expected effects; (ii) fundamental flaws—in either the design, sequencing, or basic premises of the reform agenda; and (iii) incompleteness of the agenda that left out crucial reform needs, such as volatility, technological innovation, institutional change and inequality.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Washington and Latin America

322. Financing Food Assistance: Options for the World Food Programme to Save Lives and Dollars

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran, Benjamin Leo, and Owen McCarthy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The World Food Programme has world-class logistics, but its ability to manage financial risk is extremely limited. The WFP procures 100 percent of its food through spot markets, which subjects it to substantial commodity and transport price risks and significant delays delivering food. Relying on reactive emergency appeals and on donors that tend to earmark contributions and make commitments one year at a time only adds to operational inflexibility and uncertainty.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid and Food
Political Geography:
United States

323. Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa

Author:
Jenny C. Aker and Isaac M. Mbiti
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We examine the growth of mobile phone technology over the past decade and consider its potential impacts upon quality of life in low-income countries, with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. We first provide an overview of the patterns and determinants of mobile phone coverage in sub-Saharan Africa before describing the characteristics of primary and secondary mobile phone adopters on the continent. We then discuss the channels through which mobile phone technology can impact development outcomes, both as a positive externality of the communication sector and as part of mobile phone-based development projects, and analyze existing evidence. While current research suggests that mobile phone coverage and adoption have had positive impacts on agricultural and labor market efficiency and welfare in certain countries, empirical evidence is still somewhat limited. In addition, mobile phone technology cannot serve as the “silver bullet” for development in sub-Saharan Africa. Careful impact evaluations of mobile phone development projects are required to better understand their impacts upon economic and social outcomes, and mobile phone technology must work in partnership with other public good provision and investment.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

324. How to Pay "Cash-on-Delivery" for HIV Infections Averted: Two Measurement Approaches and Ten Payout Functions

Author:
Mead Over and Timothy B. Hallett
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In contrast to current donor policy, which funds a recipient country's national AIDS control program, this paper proposes a measurement strategy to enable a donor to reward a recipient country's success at HIV prevention, irrespective of the inputs, activities, or who gets the credit. In accordance with the “cash-ondelivery” model of foreign assistance, the objective is not to replace traditional input- or activity-oriented aid, but to complement it by enhancing the motivation for local actors and their partners (including the traditional bilateral and multilateral funding agencies and their agents) to achieve measurable reductions in the rate of new HIV infections. This paper proposes two approaches to measuring the number of HIV infections averted between a baseline survey and a follow-up survey and explores the properties of ten alternative “payout functions” which would link measured epidemic changes to the size of the reward to be paid. All measurement approaches include the possibility of statistical error and thus a risk of rewarding the country too little or too much. This risk depends on the initial rate of infection and on HIV prevention success and can be reduced by either increasing the survey sample size or increasing the interval between surveys. By negotiating in advance the choice of one of these measurement approaches and one of a menu of payout functions, the donor and recipient agree on the recipient's incentive structure with respect to the magnitude and precision of the estimated reduction in the rate of new infection.

325. The Roots of Global Wage Gaps: Evidence from Randomized Processing of U.S. Visas

Author:
Michael Clemens
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This study uses a unique natural experiment to test a simple model of international differences in workers' wages and productivity. Large differences in wages across countries could arise from several sources. These include barriers to trade in outputs, differences in technology, differences in workers, or differences in the other factors of production accessible in different countries. To measure the relative importance of these sources in one setting, this study exploits the randomized processing of U.S. visas for a group of Indian workers who produce software within a single multinational firm. In this setting, international barriers to trade in outputs, barriers to technology transfer, and all observable or unobservable differences between workers are extremely low. The results indicate that location outside of India causes a sixfold increase in the wages of the same worker using the same technology to produce a highly tradable good. Under plausible assumptions about competition in the industry, this suggests that country-of-work by itself is responsible—in this industry—for roughly three-quarters of the gap in productivity between workers in India and workers in the richest countries. These findings have implications for open questions in labor, growth, international, and development economics.
Topic:
Economics and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and India

326. Leveraging World Bank Resources for the Poorest: IDA Blended Financing Facility Proposal

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
With the Millennium Development Goals deadline only five years away, the international donor community faces significant challenges due to the global economic crisis, record government deficits, and simultaneous funding requests from nearly every multilateral development institution. This paper proposes a new World Bank financing model for creditworthy emerging economies, such as India and Vietnam, which currently receive billions of dollars in IDA assistance. In contrast to the current IDA-centric financing model, the IBRD would provide the same loan volumes to qualifying emerging economies while IDA would provide grant subsidies to buy down the concessionality level of these IBRD loans. As such, these countries would be held harmless both in terms of aid volumes and lending terms. By better leveraging the IBRD's balance sheet for loan capital, IDA then could re-allocate what it otherwise would have provided to emerging economies. For the current IDA-15 replenishment period, this would mean up to $7.5 billion in additional assistance for the world's poorest, most vulnerable countries. In relative terms, this would entail a 30 percent increase over existing levels. Of this, African countries would have received an additional $5.5 billion in IDA assistance. If donor governments find a way to scrape together increased contributions to IDA, then the allocation pie would grow by an even larger margin. The Inter-American Development Bank already successfully utilizes a similar approach for its lower middle-income and low-income country clients. It is time for World Bank shareholders to seriously consider the same resource-maximizing model. With the IDA-16 replenishment and IBRD general capital increase negotiations currently underway, they have an excellent window of opportunity to implement this win-win-win approach.
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Vietnam

327. Concentrating Solar Power in China and India: A Spatial Analysis of Technical Potential and the Cost of Deployment

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Coal power generation in China and India is expected to double and triple, respectively, over the next 20 years, increasing exposure to fuel price volatility, exacerbating local air pollution, and hastening global climate change. Concentrating solar power (CSP) is a growing source of utility-scale, pollution-free electricity, but its potential in Asia remains largely unexamined. High-resolution spatial data are used to identify areas suitable for CSP and estimate power generation and cost under alternative land-use scenarios. Total technical potential exceeds current coal power output by a factor of 16 to 23 in China and 3 to 4 in India. A CSP expansion program and attendant transmission requirements are simulated with the goal of providing 20 percent of electricity in both countries by midcentury. Under conservative assumptions, the program is estimated to require subsidies of $340 billion in present dollars; coal-associated emissions of 96 GtCO2eq are averted at an average abatement cost of $30 per tCO2eq. Estimated costs are especially sensitive to the assumed rate of technological learning, emphasizing the importance of committed public policy and financing to reduce investment risk, encourage expansion of manufacturing capacity, and achieve long-term cost reductions. The results highlight the need for spatially explicit modeling of renewable power technologies and suggest that existing subsidies might be better used through integrated planning for large-scale solar and wind deployment that exploits spatiotemporal complementarities and shared infrastructure.
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China and India

328. The End of ODA (II): The Birth of Hypercollective Action

Author:
Jean-Michel Severino and Olivier Ray
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The development business has become much more complex in the past decade, with actors proliferating and collaboration fragmenting. This trend is characteristic of the change from collective action to what the authors term hypercollective action. Such a shift brings new energy and resources to international development, but also more difficulty managing global public policy. Severino and Ray use the lessons of the Paris Declaration—the first large-scale effort to coordinate hypercollective action—as a starting point for envisioning a new conceptual framework to manage the complexity of current international collaboration. They offer concrete suggestions to improve the management of global policies, including new ways to share information, align the goals of disparate actors, and create more capable bodies for international collaboration.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy

329. Bridging the Gap: Better, Faster, and Cheaper Clinical Trials for Health Products for Neglected Diseases

Author:
Thomas Bollyky
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There has been tremendous progress over the last decade in the development of health products for neglected diseases. These include drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics for malaria and tuberculosis, which kill millions of people annually, plus other diseases like chagas and dengue fever, which may less familiar, but nonetheless exact a large and often lethal toll in the world's poorest communities. Led by product development public private partnerships (PDPs) and fueled by the support of the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and other donors, there are now dozens of candidate products in the pipeline.
Topic:
Development, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Infectious Diseases

330. Inside the World Bank's Black Box Allocation System: How Well Does IDA Allocate Resources to the Neediest and Most Vulnerable Countries?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
During the last few International Development Association (IDA) replenishment negotiations, several large donors have pressed for reforms to further increase the share of IDA resources provided to the neediest and most vulnerable countries. While the proposed reforms take different forms, the philosophical Thrust is the same—push IDA's focus further down the development chain. Against this backdrop, this paper explores just how well IDA's existing performance-based allocation (PBA) system actually addresses these issues. To achieve this, I examine how IDA allocations are distributed at each successive stage of the PBA methodology based upon a number of need and vulnerability measures. Next, I apply two simple measures to gauge IDA's performance: (1) whether per-capita allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries are equal to or greater than those for the best off countries and (2) whether allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries increase between the baseline and final allocation scenarios. Based on these criteria, IDA has a mixed track record. IDA's performance is very modest with respect to the relative share allocated to the neediest or most vulnerable countries. Of the eight measures examined, only two illustrate parity between final allocations to the bottom and top quartile of countries. However, the litany of PBA exceptions clearly helps to redistribute resources in absolute terms. Per-capita allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries more than doubles between the baseline and final PBA scenarios for every need and vulnerability indicator examined. Clearly, the existing system has several built-in biases to redistribute resources to these countries. However, these exceptions fall short from ensuring full parity that some IDA donors may wish to achieve. As such, the philosophical debate among key IDA donors likely will continue for the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis

331. Pulling Agricultural Innovation and the Market Together

Author:
Kimberly Elliott
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Feeding an additional three billion people over the next four decades, along with providing food security for another one billion people that are currently hungry or malnourished, is a huge challenge. Meeting those goals in a context of land and water scarcity, climate change, and declining crop yields will require another giant leap in agricultural innovation. The aim of this paper is to stimulate a dialogue on what new approaches might be needed to meet these needs and how innovative funding mechanisms could play a role. In particular, could “pull mechanisms,” where donors stimulate demand for new technologies, be a useful complement to traditional “push mechanisms,” where donors provide funding to increase the supply of research and development (R). With a pull mechanism, donors seek to engage the private sector, which is almost entirely absent today in developing country R for agriculture, and they pay only when specified outcomes are delivered and adopted.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Development, and Poverty

332. Beyond Population: Everyone Counts in Development

Author:
Joel E. Cohen
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This essay reviews some of the most important demographic trends expected to occur between 2010 and 2050, indicates some of their implications for economic and global development, and suggests some possible policies to respond these trends and implications. The interactions of population, economics, the environment, and culture are central. In the past decade, for the first time in history, old people outnumbered young people, urban people outnumbered rural people, and women of reduced fertility outnumbered women of high fertility. The century from 1950 to 2050 will have included the highest global population growth rate ever, the largest voluntary fall in the global population growth rate ever, and the most enormous shift ever in the demographic balance between the more developed regions of the world and the less developed ones. In the coming half century, according to most demographers, the world's population will grow older, larger (albeit more slowly), and more urban than in the 20th century, but with much variance within and across regions. No one knows what numbers and demographic characteristics of humans are sustainable, but it is clear that the prodigious stain of a billion or so chronically hungry people at present results from recent and ongoing collective human choices, not biophysical necessities. Concrete policy options to respond to demographic trends include providing universal primary and secondary education, particularly education for global and household civility; eliminating unmet needs for contraception and reproductive health; and implementing demographically sensitive urban planning, particularly construction for greater energy efficiency and friendliness to older people.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:
Washington

333. Twenty Concrete Steps to Improve the United States' Commitment to Development

Author:
David Roodman and Cindy Prieto
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Commitment to Development Index (CDI) ranks 22 rich countries on their dedication to policies that benefit poor nations. Looking beyond standard comparisons of foreign aid flows, the CDI measures national policies on aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, and technology. The United States ranked 17th overall in 2009, strong in trade and security but less competitive in aid and environment. This memo describes how to boost the U.S. score and links to CGD materials with more detail.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

334. Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia

Author:
Oeindrila Dube and Suresh Naidu
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Does foreign military assistance strengthen or further weaken fragile states facing internal conflict? We address this question by estimating how U.S. military aid affects violence and electoral participation in Colombia. We exploit the allocation of U.S. military aid to Colombian military bases, and compare how aid affects municipalities with and without bases. Using detailed political violence data, we find that U.S. military aid leads to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries (who collude with the military), but has no effect on guerilla attacks. Aid increases also result in more paramilitary (but not guerrilla) homicides during election years. Moreover, when military aid rises, voter turnout falls more in base municipalities, especially those that are politically contested.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, and Latin America

335. Who Are the MDG Trailblazers? A New MDG Progress Index

Author:
Benjamin Lee and Julia Barmeier
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In September, world leaders will assemble in New York to review progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Ahead of the ensuing discussions, we examine how individual countries are faring towards achieving the highly ambitious MDG targets. We outline a new MDG Progress Index, which compares country performance against the core MDG targets on poverty, hunger, gender equality, education, child mortality, health, and water. Overall, we find evidence of dramatic achievements by many poor countries such as Honduras, Laos, Ethiopia, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Nepal, Cambodia, and Ghana. In fact, these countries' performance suggests that they may achieve most of the highly ambitious MDGs. Moreover, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for many of the star MDG performers. Interestingly, poor countries perform nearly on par with middle-income countries. Not surprisingly, the list of laggards largely consists of countries devastated by conflict over the last few decades, such as Afghanistan, Burundi, the DRC, and Guinea-Bissau. Most countries fall somewhere in between, demonstrating solid progress on some indicators and little on others.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Poverty, Third World, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, New York, Cambodia, Nepal, United Nations, and Ethiopia

336. Can Donors Be Flexible within Restrictive Budget Systems? Options for Innovative Financing Mechanisms

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper focuses on how budgetary scorekeeping systems affect governments' ability or willingness to support innovative development finance initiatives and explores several options to overcome the restrictions the systems often impose. As a starting point, it assumes that donor governments, such as the United States, will not reform their budgetary system regulations to accommodate innovative development finance commitments due to political and budget policy concerns. In general, each option outlined entails important financial, political, and bureaucratic challenges and tradeoffs. In other words, there are no silver bullets. However, there are possible approaches that may merit further exploration by donor governments that want to support specific innovative development finance initiatives but are constrained by existing budgetary systems.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States

337. When Does Rigorous Impact Evaluation Make a Difference? The Case of the Millennium Villages

Author:
Michael Clemens and Gabriel Demombynes
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
When is the rigorous impact evaluation of development projects a luxury, and when a necessity? We study one high-profile case: the Millennium Villages Project (MVP), an experimental and intensive package intervention to spark sustained local economic development in rural Africa. We illustrate the benefits of rigorous impact evaluation in this setting by showing that estimates of the project's effects depend heavily on the evaluation method. Comparing trends at the MVP intervention sites in Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria to trends in the surrounding areas yields much more modest estimates of the project's effects than the before-versus-after comparisons published thus far by the MVP. Neither approach constitutes a rigorous impact evaluation of the MVP, which is impossible to perform due to weaknesses in the evaluation design of the project's initial phase. These weaknesses include the subjective choice of intervention sites, the subjective choice of comparison sites, the lack of baseline data on comparison sites, the small sample size, and the short time horizon. We describe how the next wave of the intervention could be designed to allow proper evaluation of the MVP's impact at little additional cost.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

338. Austerity and the IMF

Author:
Kenneth Rogoff
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
It is a great honor to present the fifth annual Richard H. Sabot lecture at the Center for Global Development. In this talk, I will take up a relatively narrow but absolutely fundamental question in the international monetary system, particularly in developing countries: Is the International Monetary fund (the IMF) guilty of bringing excessive austerity to the countries that turn to it for bailout funding? Should the IMF instead put much more weight on encouraging countercyclical fiscal policy, as it does in rich countries? Extremely difficult and complex issues underlie these seemingly straightforward questions. My modest aim in this lecture is to help clarify the issues so as to promote rational dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Monetary Fund, and Foreign Aid

339. Aid for Trade: Supporting Trade Preference Reform

Author:
Susan Prowse
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Aid-for-trade programs can help strengthen low-income countries' supply capacity and knowledge of trade preferences, which will allow them to take fuller advantage of these preferences. Aid for trade to support preference reform can be divided into three categories: (i) creation of information-sharing mechanisms to ensure that governments, SMEs and other businesses are aware of the opportunities that preferential market access offers; (ii) capacity-building support to overcome supply-side and policy constraints; and (iii) support to ease the adjustments to preference erosion that will inevitably occur. As with other aid initiatives, coordination and cohesion among assistance programs is critical for success. Delivery mechanisms such as the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF), the Trade Facilitation Facility (TFF), and the Standards and Trade Development Facility (STDF), are aimed at facilitating such coordination, but more could be done. And, as preference programs are intended to be temporary, aid for trade can also facilitate graduation from these programs and compensate beneficiaries for preference erosion. Unfortunately, this area is still lacking the level of innovation and financial support needed.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid

340. How Can Donors Create Incentives for Results and Flexibility for Fragile States? A Proposal for IDA

Author:
Alan Gelb
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
International Development Association (IDA) donors and others operating a country performance-based allocation system face two difficult problems: how to strengthen incentives to produce and document development results and how to increase flexibility for fragile states. Fragile states have the greatest need for projects, but their projects tend to rate poorly in performance-based allocations systems, which provide little incentive to produce successful projects in fragile states or other countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Aid

341. The Legacy of the Jubilee Debt Relief Movement: Agreements, Lessons, and Remaining Challenges

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Over the last 25 years, the international community has pursued a series of measures to address unsustainable debt burdens in low-income countries. Early actions focused on debt relief for official bilateral claims—initially by rescheduling—followed by increasing levels of debt stock reduction. During this period, the Paris Club repeatedly reduced or rescheduled the debts of a number of countries.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Foreign Aid

342. The Arc of the Jubilee

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Jubilee 2000 movement, which called for the cancellation of the foreign debts of the poorest nations, reached its zenith in the late 1990s and 2000-and then, by design, shut down. In the space of a few years, it became one of the most successful international, nongovernmental movements in history. As part of a larger, ongoing project to understand the consequences and lessons of the episode, David Roodman provides thumbnail assessments of Jubilee 2000 from several perspectives, deemphasizing anecdotes and statistics in favor of major themes.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and Non-Governmental Organization

343. Learning about Schools in Development

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There has been considerable progress in school construction and enrollment worldwide. Paying kids to go to school can help overcome remaining demand-side barriers to enrollment. Nonetheless, the quality of education appears very poor across the developing world, limiting development impact. Thus we should measure and promote learning not schooling. Conditional cash transfers to students on the basis of attendance and scores, school choice, decentralization combined with published test results, and teacher pay based on attendance and performance may help. But learning outcomes are primarily affected by the broader environment in which students live, suggesting a learning agenda that stretches far beyond education ministries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and East Asia

344. Global Prospects for Utility-Scale Solar Power: Toward Spatially Explicit Modeling of Renewable Energy Systems

Author:
Kevin Ummel
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper provides high-resolution estimates of the global potential and cost of utility-scale photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies and uses a spatially explicit model to identify deployment patterns that minimize the cost of greenhouse gas abatement. A global simulation is run with the goal of providing 2,000 TWh of solar power (-7% of total consumption) in 2030, taking into account least-cost siting of facilities and transmission lines and the effect of diurnal variation on project profitability and required subsidies. The American southwest, Tibetan Plateau, Sahel, and Middle East are identified as major supply areas. Solar power consumption concentrates in the United States over the next decade, diversifying to Europe and India by the early 2020's, and focusing in China in the second half of the decade—often relying upon long-distance, highvoltage transmission lines. Cost estimates suggest deployment on this scale is likely to be competitive with other prominent abatement options in the energy sector. Further development of spatially explicit energy models could help guide infrastructure planning and financing strategies both nationally and globally, elucidating a range of important questions related to renewable energy policy.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Sahel

345. Capability Traps? The Mechanisms of Persistent Implementation Failure

Author:
Lant Pritchett, Michael Woolcock, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many countries remain stuck in conditions of low productivity that many call “poverty traps.” Economic growth is only one aspect of development; another key dimension of development is the expansion of the administrative capability of the state, the capability of governments to affect the course of events by implementing policies and programs. We use a variety of empirical indicators of administrative capability to show that many countries remain in “state capability traps” in which the implementation capability of the state is both severely limited and improving (if at all) only very slowly. At their current pace of progress countries like Haiti or Afghanistan or Liberia would take hundreds (if not thousands) of years to reach the capability of a country like Singapore and decades to reach even a moderate capability country like India. We explore how this can be so. That is, we do not attempt to explain why countries remain in capability traps; this would require a historical, political and social analysis uniquely applied to each country. Rather, we focus on how countries manage to engage in the domestic and international logics of “development” and yet consistently fail to acquire capability. What are the techniques of failure? Two stand out. First, 'big development' encourages progress through importing standard responses to predetermined problems. This encourages isomorphic mimicry as a technique of failure: the adoption of the forms of other functional states and organizations which camouflages a persistent lack of function. Second, an inadequate theory of developmental change reinforces a fundamental mismatch between expectations and the actual capacity of prevailing administrative systems to implement even the most routine administrative tasks. This leads to premature load bearing, in which wishful thinking about the pace of progress and unrealistic expectations about the level and rate of improvement of capability lead to stresses and demands on systems that cause capability to weaken (if not collapse). We conclude with some suggestive directions for sabotaging these techniques of failure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, India, and Liberia

346. Sudan Debt Dynamics: Status Quo, Southern Secession, Debt Division, and Oil–A Financial Framework for the Future

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are scheduled to vote in a referendum on whether to remain unified with the central government in Khartoum or break away to form a new, fully independent country. While the Khartoum government remains committed to a unified Sudan, all indications suggest that the Southern Sudanese will vote for secession by an overwhelming majority. Khartoum's willingness to accept the potential losses remains unclear. Many suspect that its ultimate actions will depend, at least in part, upon the resolution of key outstanding issues, such as oil and debt. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of Sudan's $35 billion in external debt obligations – both for a unified Sudan and a possible Southern secession. First, it examines Sudan's existing debt dynamics and the potential eligibility for traditional debt relief and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Second, it outlines potential options for dividing Sudan's external debt obligations in the event of a Southern secession. Third, it estimates external indebtedness ratios under each debt division scenario and the potential relevance of traditional debt relief treatments. Lastly, the paper provides an indicative roadmap for clearing Sudan's loan arrears of $30 billion and potentially securing comprehensive debt relief in the future.
Topic:
Civil War, Debt, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

347. Confronting the American Divide on Carbon Emissions Regulation

Author:
David Wheeler
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The failure of carbon regulation in the U.S. Congress has undermined international negotiations to reduce carbon emissions. The global stalemate has, in turn, increased the likelihood that vulnerable developing countries will be severely damaged by climate change. This paper asks why the tragic American impasse has occurred, while the EU has succeeded in implementing carbon regulation. Both cases have involved negotiations between relatively rich “Green” regions and relatively poor “Brown” (carbon-intensive) regions, with success contingent on two factors: the interregional disparity in carbon intensity, which proxies the extra mitigation cost burden for the Brown region, and the compensating incentives provided by the Green region. The European negotiation has succeeded because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is relatively small, and the compensating incentive (EU membership for the Brown region) has been huge. In contrast, the U.S. negotiation has repeatedly failed because the interregional disparity in carbon intensity is huge, and the compensating incentives have been modest at best. The unsettling implication is that an EU-style arrangement is infeasible in the United States, so the Green states will have to find another path to serious carbon mitigation. One option is mitigation within their own boundaries, through clean technology subsidies or emissions regulation. The Green states have undertaken such measures, but potential free-riding by the Brown states and international competitors seems likely to limit this approach, and it would address only the modest Green-state portion of U.S. carbon emissions in any case. The second option is mobilization of the Green states' enormous market power through a carbon added tax (CAT). Rather than taxing carbon emissions at their points of production, a CAT taxes the carbon embodied in products at their points of consumption. For Green states, a CAT has four major advantages: It can be implemented unilaterally, state-by-state; it encourages clean production everywhere, by taxing carbon from all sources equally; it creates a market advantage for local producers, by taxing transport-related carbon emissions; and it offers fiscal flexibility, since it can either offset existing taxes or raise additional revenue.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

348. Not Just Aid: How Making Government Work Can Transform Africa

Author:
Tony Blair
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Country ownership has become the new watchword in development. The problem for traditional donors is that ownership is too often code for convincing developing country governments to adopt the donors' agenda as their own: a way of securing influence without imposing conditionality. What is really needed is genuine country leadership. As President Obama said when he announced the United States' new development policy at the UN Millennium Development Goals summit in New York in September, “We will partner with countries that are willing to take the lead. Because the days when your development was dictated in foreign capitals must come to an end.”
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, New York, and United Nations

349. Giving Money Away? The Politics of Direct Distribution in Resource Rich States

Author:
Alexandra Gillies
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The governments of resource rich states have several options for how to allocate oil and mineral revenues, including the direct distribution of revenues to their citizens. This paper discusses the political feasibility and political implications of such cash transfers in the specific context of resource-rich states. Identifying the contexts in which this policy is mostly likely to emerge, and understanding the potential governance risks and benefits, will help policymakers to consider the desirability of cash transfers as an allocation choice.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

350. China in Africa: A Macroeconomic Perspective

Author:
Benedicte Vibe Christensen
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In recent years, China has dramatically expanded its financing and foreign direct investment to Africa. This expansion has served the political and economic interests of China while providing Africa with much-needed technology and financial resources. This paper looks at China's role in Africa from the Chinese perspective. The main conclusion is that China, as an emerging global player and one of Africa's largest trading and financial partners, can no longer ignore the macroeconomic impact of its operations on African economies. Indeed, it is in China's interest that its engagement leads to sustainable economic development on the continent. Trade, financing, and technology transfer must continue at a pace that African economies can absorb without running up against institutional constraints, the capacity to service the costs to future budgets, or the balance of payments. A key corollary is that China should show good governance in its own operations in Africa. Finally, macroeconomic analysis needs to be supported by better analytical data and organization of decision making to support China's engagement in Africa.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China