Search

You searched for: Content Type Working Paper Remove constraint Content Type: Working Paper Publishing Institution Center for Global Development Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Center for Global Development Political Geography Africa Remove constraint Political Geography: Africa Topic Government Remove constraint Topic: Government
Number of results to display per page

Search Results

  • Author: Mead Over, Gesine Meyer-Rath, Daniel J. Klein, Anna Bershteyn
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The South African government is currently discussing various alternative approaches to the further expansion of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in public-sector facilities. Alternatives under consideration include the criteria under which a patient would be eligible for free care, the level of coverage with testing and care, how much of the care will be delivered in small facilities located closer to the patients, and how to assure linkage to care and subsequent adherence by ART patients. We used the EMOD-HIV model to generate 12 epidemiological scenarios. The EMOD-HIV model is a model of HIV transmission which projects South African HIV incidence and prevalence and ARV treatment by age group for alternative combinations of treatment eligibility criteria and testing. We treat as sunk costs the projected future cost of one of these 12 scenarios, the baseline scenario characterizing South Africa's 2013 policy to treat people with CD4 counts less than 350. We compute the cost and benefits of the other 11 scenarios relative to this baseline. Starting with our own bottom-up cost analyses in South Africa, we separate outpatient cost into non-scale-dependent costs (drugs and laboratory tests) and scale-dependent cost (staff, space, equipment and overheads) and model the cost of production according to the expected future number and size of clinics. On the demand side, we include the cost of creating and sustaining the projected incremental demand for testing and treatment. Previous research with EMOD-HIV has shown that more vigorous recruitment of patients with CD4 counts less than 350 appears to be an advantageous policy over a five-year horizon. Over 20 years, however, the model assumption that a person on treatment is 92 percent less infectious improves the cost-effectiveness of higher eligibility thresholds over more vigorous recruitment at the lower threshold of 350, averting HIV infections for between $1,700 and $2,800 (under our central assumptions), while more vigorous expansion under the current guidelines would cost more than $7,500 per incremental HIV infection averted. Granular spatial models of demand and cost facilitate the optimal targeting of new facility construction and outreach services. Based on analysis of the sensitivity of the results to 1,728 alternative parameter combinations at each of four discount rates, we conclude that better knowledge of the behavioral elasticities would be valuable, reducing the uncertainty of cost estimates by a factor of 4 to 10.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Tessa Bold, Mwangi Kimenyi, Germano Mwabu, Justin Sandefur
  • Publication Date: 10-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: A large empirical literature has shown that user fees signicantly deter public service utilization in developing countries. While most of these results reflect partial equilibrium analysis, we find that the nationwide abolition of public school fees in Kenya in 2003 led to no increase in net public enrollment rates, but rather a dramatic shift toward private schooling. Results suggest this divergence between partial- and general-equilibrium effects is partially explained by social interactions: the entry of poorer pupils into free education contributed to the exit of their more affluent peers.
  • Topic: Education, Government, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Steve Radelet
  • Publication Date: 11-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Liberia was decimated by 25 years of gross economic mismanagement and 14 years of brutal civil war. GDP fell by over 90% in less than two decades, one of the largest economic collapses in the world since World War II. This paper explores the challenges in reinvigorating rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth in the post-war environment. It stresses the importance of not just reigniting growth, but rebuilding the economy in a way that avoids the substantial income concentration of the past and creates significant economic opportunities to groups that were marginalized and excluded in the past. It examines the new government's progress so far, including the major steps it has taken in its first 18 months and the unique way that it has organized government-donor relations.
  • Topic: Development, Government, International Cooperation, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Liberia
  • Author: Nancy Birdsall
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The implicit assumption of the donor community is that Africa is trapped by its poverty, and that aid is necessary if Africa is to escape the trap. In this note I suggest an alternative assumption: that Africa is caught in an institutional trap, signaled and reinforced by the small share of income of its independent middle-income population. Theory and historical experience elsewhere suggest that a robust middle-income group contributes critically to the creation and sustenance of healthy institutions, particularly healthy institutions of the state. I propose that if external aid is to be helpful for institution-building in Africa's weak and fragile states, donors need to emphasize not providing more aid but minimizing the risks more aid poses for this group in Africa.
  • Topic: Corruption, Development, Government, Humanitarian Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Vijaya Ramachandran, Scott Standley, Todd Moss
  • Publication Date: 02-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: This paper addresses the question of investment in sub-Saharan African listed securities by examining characteristics of the continent's 15 equity markets, the rise and fall of African regional funds, and the asset allocation trends for global emerging market (GEM) funds. The data shows that South Africa is now a leading destination of capital, but that few managers invest elsewhere on the continent. However, we find that African markets are not treated differently than other markets and present evidence that small market size and low levels of liquidity are a binding deterrent for foreign institutional investors. Thus, orthodox market variables rather than market failure appear to explain Africa's low absolute levels of inward equity flows. The paper then turns to new data from firm surveys to explore why African firms remain small. The implications of our findings are threefold: (a) efforts to encourage greater private investment in these markets should concentrate on domestic audiences and specialized regional funds, (b) the depth and success of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange can perhaps be better utilized to benefit other parts of the continent, and (c) any long-term strategy should concentrate on the underlying barriers to firm entry and growth.
  • Topic: Government, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa