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252. U.S.-China Security Perceptions Survey: Findings and Implications
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine, Rachel Esplin Odell, Luo Yuan, and Liu Xiangdong
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Public and elite attitudes in the United States and especially China are exerting a growing influence on the bilateral security relationship. The U.S.-China Security Perceptions Project analyzes the content of these attitudes through original surveys and workshops conducted in both countries. The project's findings have implications for policymakers seeking to reduce the likelihood of future bilateral conflicts.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
253. Merkel's Unfinished Business: Why Germany Needs to Act Strategically
- Author:
- Judy Dempsey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel will soon face parliamentary elections. On her eight-year watch, her governing coalition has failed to develop foreign policy, security, and defense strategies. This weakens Europe's ability to think and act strategically and limits the European Union's (EU's) influence in its immediate neighborhood and beyond. There is much unfinished business that the next chancellor, be it Merkel or someone else, will have to manage.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
254. Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The development of non-nuclear weapons that can strike distant targets in a short period of time has been a U.S. goal for more than a decade. Advocates argue that such Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) weapons could be used to counter antisatellite weapons or sophisticated defensive capabilities; deny a new proliferator the ability to employ its nuclear arsenal; and kill high-value terrorists. Critics worry that CPGS weapons could create serious strategic risks, most notably of escalation—including to the nuclear level—in a conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
255. Rethinking Urban Mobility: Sustainable Policies for the Century of the City
- Author:
- Shin-pei Tsay and Victoria Herrmann
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Each week, more than 1 million people move from rural areas to cities around the world, placing huge demands on existing infrastructure—and especially on existing transport systems. Booming cities need contemporary mobility systems capable of transporting increasing numbers of people while doing the least possible harm to the natural environment. Multiple actors, including national and local governments, must work together to create environmentally and financially sustainable urban transport systems.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, Migration, Infrastructure, and Governance
256. Russia and the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Alexey Malashenko
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia has spent over a decade trying to recapture the influence the Soviet Union once enjoyed in the Middle East, but President Vladimir Putin's attempts to position Moscow as a key regional player have come up short. With revolutions across the Arab world overturning old orders and ushering in Islamist governments, Russia's chances for strengthening its position in the region look increasingly slim. The Kremlin must change course and ensure that its approach to the Middle East and Islamists reflects post–Arab Spring realities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Soviet Union, and Arabia
257. Individual Freedoms in Turkey
- Author:
- Marc Pierini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has witnessed economic success and launched major reforms, in particular writing a new constitution, negotiating with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, passing four judicial reform packages, and installing an ombudsman. In sharp contrast, the AKP's exclusive reliance on its election victories for legitimacy and increasingly authoritarian practices in the fields of freedom of cultural expression and coexistence of different lifestyles are at odds with its stated objective of establishing an advanced democracy. Popular discontent with these practices and unending restrictions on media freedom resulted in major protests in May and June 2013.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Islam, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, and Kurdistan
258. The EU Beyond the Crisis: The Unavoidable Challenge of Legitimacy
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The euro crisis has mobilized the masses and unleashed vitally important debates about changing the model of European integration, both economically and politically. Yet, as European governments deepen economic cooperation and the crisis appears to have calmed, European Union (EU) member states feel increasingly confident that fundamental political changes are not necessary. This is a dangerously short-sighted calculation. To build a truly democratic EU, citizens need to have a greater voice in decision making.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
259. The Eastern Partnership—It Is High Time to Start a Real "Partnership"
- Author:
- Paweł Dariusz Wiśniewski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The European Union's (EU's) Eastern Partnership, which aims to deepen cooperation between the EU and its Eastern European neighbors, must be modernized. Partner states and the EU have to acknowledge their own failures instead of playing a “blame game” and work together to make the partnership a success. If the Eastern Partnership initiative fails, both sides—along with Russia, whose role is key—will be responsible.
- Topic:
- Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
260. Smart Geostrategy for the Eastern Partnership
- Author:
- Richard Youngs and Kateryna Pishchikova
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The European Union's (EU's) relationship with Eastern Europe and the Caucasus is at a turning point. Russia's increasingly assertive tactics have chipped away at the ties that bind the six Eastern Partnership countries to the EU, and the entire Eastern Partnership is on the verge of unraveling. To rescue its association with its Eastern partners, the EU must deliver more tangible results. Europe can be both geopolitical and committed to reform—but to strike the right balance, the EU must be more strategic.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
261. Violence Against Copts in Egypt
- Author:
- Jason Brownlee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian Orthodox Christian community—the Copts—has been the target of violence and discrimination since the 1970s and especially following the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian state has done little to remedy the situation and has at times enabled the conflict between Muslims and Christians. Achieving religious freedom and equality depends on building state institutions that can guarantee all citizens' constitutional rights.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
262. The Politics of Plenty: Balancing Climate and Energy Security
- Author:
- David Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The United States is entering an era of oil and gas abundance. Its new resources will increase U.S. energy security, but they may also undermine climate security—as fossil fuel combustion increases, so too does global warming. Unless Washington enacts a plan to simultaneously advance its competing energy and climate security objectives, it risks squandering the benefits of its new resources and suffering the disastrous effects of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States
263. A More Pluralist Approach to European Democracy Support
- Author:
- Richard Youngs and Kateryna Pishchikova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- European support for democracy is at a crucial juncture. Just as the eurozone crisis complicates the European Union's (EU's) efforts to support democratic reform around the world, new forms of political transition are confounding the EU's traditional approach to democracy building. The EU must embrace a wider variety of tactics, models, actors, and strategies, or it risks losing credibility and traction in the field of democracy support.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
264. Iraq's Tangled Foreign Interests and Relations
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A decade after Saddam Hussein's fall, Iraq still lacks a centralized foreign policy that advances its national interests. Internal divisions, such as those between the Shia-dominated regime in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil, have given rise to alternative power centers with their own policy priorities. Iraqi foreign policy will remain disjointed and incoherent until Baghdad resolves the issues polarizing the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Oil, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
265. The Paranoid Neighbor: Algeria and the Conflict in Mali
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As the crisis in Mali threatens to grow into a full-fledged regional security and humanitarian nightmare, nervous neighboring countries are looking to Algeria to lead a conflict management effort. In many ways Algeria has always wanted recognition as a regional leader. Yet, Algiers worries about being dragged into a Saharan quagmire and seems reluctant or unable to maintain stability in its backyard. Both the country's neighbors and the West are questioning Algeria's decision not to take a more active role in Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, and Mali
266. Borderline Chaos? Securing Libya's Periphery
- Author:
- Peter Cole
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Libya's borders remain largely ungoverned, and securing the periphery is among the country's greatest challenges. Weak border control allows markets in arms, people, and narcotics to thrive alongside everyday trafficking in fuel and goods, with profound consequences for the region as a whole. For Libya to create a truly effective border security strategy it must do what no Libyan government before it has done—disentangle the web of economic and local interests that fuel Libya's border insecurity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
267. The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU?
- Author:
- Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The customs union formed by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 2010— the largest in the world by territory—is becoming very real. Though hurdles remain, member states are eliminating non-tariff barriers to trade within the union, moving toward a common external tariff, and fine-tuning a joint customs code. As the customs union's influence on the world stage and in Europe's neighborhood is likely to increase, the European Union (EU) should attempt to understand the project and find ways to protect its own interests.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus
268. Democracy Policy Under Obama: Revitalization or Retreat?
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Upon taking office in January 2009, President Barack Obama inherited a democracy promotion policy badly damaged from its prior association with the war in Iraq and with forcible regime change more generally. The Bush years had also seen a decline in America's reputation as a global symbol of democracy and human rights as well as rising fears of a broader democratic recession in the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and America
269. The Future of Russia: Modernization or Decline?
- Author:
- Adam Balcer and Nikolay Petrov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and nuclear power remains a key player in Eurasia with a substantial leverage in the post Soviet space and, at the same time, the most important neighbour of the EU. However, in the coming decades Russia will face serious challenges to its internal prospects and international position. The further rise of China, negative demographic trends (shrinking population, emigration of well-educated people), substantial increase of the share of Muslim population, degradation of its infrastructure, unsustainability of the current economic model and rampant corruption are the most important factors which will impact on Russia's future and by default on the EU's. Certainly, Russia's democratization would substantially increase its ability to face these challenges and impact positively on EU-Russia relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Soviet Union, and United Nations
270. Russia, China and Global Governance
- Author:
- Charles Grant
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The need for international co-operation has never been greater, yet global governance is inadequate. Whether one looks at the Doha round of trade liberalisation, the climate change talks led by the United Nations, the G20's efforts to co-ordinate economic and financial policies, or efforts to reform the UN Security Council (UNSC), not much is being achieved. 'Multilateralism'–the system of international institutions and rules intended to promote the common good–appears to be weakening. At the same time, the growing influence of China, Russia and other non-Western powers is pushing the international order towards 'multipolarity'.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
271. True Partners? How Russia and China See Each Other
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- This report compares Russian and Chinese security perceptions and explains how they shape the two countries' policies towards each other. It argues that the modern relationship between the two countries, formed in the late 19th and 20th centuries, was turned on its head at the start of the 21st century. China has now become a powerful factor affecting a whole range of Russian policies, both domestic and foreign. The paper also argues that, while Russia is not central to China's foreign relations, and non-existent in China's domestic politics, good relations with Moscow are an important supporting element in Beijing's overall strategy of reclaiming China's 'rightful place in the world'. It concludes that while both countries need each other and would benefit from a stable political relationship and close economic ties, both Moscow and Beijing lack the long-term strategies to create such a bond.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
272. The Arab World's Education Report Card: School Climate and Citizenship Skills
- Author:
- Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The youth of the Arab world have driven much of the popular upheaval that has overtaken the region in the last year. Calling for fundamental political and economic change, they seek to remake their societies into more open, global players. But if that grassroots momentum is to be solidified, real societal reform must take place.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Economics, Education, Globalization, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
273. When Victory Becomes an Option: Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood Confronts Success
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt\'s Muslim Brotherhood stands on the brink of an impressive electoral victory. After several months of suggesting it would check its own electoral ambitions, the Brotherhood plunged into politics with unprecedented enthusiasm, focusing all of its energies and impressive organizational heft on the parliamentary vote. Now, with the electoral list of its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, likely to gain close to (and maybe even more than) half the seats and perhaps cabinet positions as well, the movement is entering uncharted waters.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, Syria, and Egypt
274. Simmering Discontent in the Western Sahara
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory annexed by Morocco despite Algerian objections, is a critical region that could quickly become part of the criminal and terrorist networks threatening North Africa and the Sahel. The undergoverned areas abutting the territory are becoming major hubs for drug trafficking, contraband smuggling, and weapons circulation. And Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is extending its reach in the region. The potential for destabilization is real.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Terrorism, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
275. The Underachiever: Ukraine's Economy Since 1991
- Author:
- Pekka Sutela
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- When Ukraine became independent in 1991, there were expectations that it would in the near future become a wealthy free market democracy and a full member of the European and Euro-Atlantic communities. The largest country geographically wholly European, and the fifth-biggest European nation by size of population, it was hoped, would become a member of the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
- Topic:
- Corruption, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Atlantic Ocean
276. Why Fukushima Was Preventable
- Author:
- James M. Acton and Mark Hibbs
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Public sentiment in many states has turned against nuclear energy following the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The large quantity of radioactive material released has caused significant human suffering and rendered large stretches of land uninhabitable. The cleanup operation will take decades and may cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Disasters, Governance, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Israel
277. Mauritania's Islamists
- Author:
- Alex Thurston
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Islamists have become an important political force in Mauritania since formal Islamist associations first emerged in the 1970s. Islamist activism has contributed to the ongoing Islamization of Mauritanian society, as is evident from the proliferation of mosques and Islamic associations in the capital, Nouakchott, and elsewhere. In the 1990s, political liberalization allowed Islamists to participate in elections as independents, and since its legalization in 2007, Tewassoul, the strongest Islamist party in Mauritania today, has become a significant minority voice in the country's politics and has built ties with Islamists elsewhere in the Arab world. These moderate Islamists who participate in elections hold different beliefs and goals from Mauritania's jihadist fringe. Overall, Mauritanian Islamism does not currently pose a threat to the United States. The mainstream of the movement appears committed to democracy and, even so, is unlikely to take power. Islamist parties like Tewassoul have never captured a large share of the vote in elections, and moderate Islamist leaders have explicitly rejected using violence to take over the state. Indeed, the United States may even find an upside to the Islamists' rise: Mainstream Islamist leaders publicly condemn the Muslim terrorist group Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which the Mauritanian government has been combating since 2005.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and North Africa
278. Egypt's Judges in a Revolutionary Age
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt's tumultuous uprising of 2011 was about many things, but among the most central was a demand by legions of political activists and large crowds of mobilized citizens that public authority in the country be reconstructed to operate in a clearly accountable manner, fully governed by the rule of law. Egyptian judges might therefore be expected to look upon the post-uprising environment as a time when they can finally realize a vision that they have been articulating for a generation in the face of an imperious and impervious presidency: A state ruled by law in which they will be insulated from political pressures and private interests, providing full autonomy to individual judges and to the judiciary as a body to issue decisions that will be respected and implemented by all the agencies of the Egyptian state.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
279. Turkey and the Bomb
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Though most states that want a nuclear weapon can get one through determined effort, the fact remains that most choose not to proliferate. Turkey is no exception. Not even the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to push Ankara to develop its own nuclear weapons. The only circumstance where such a scenario would acquire a degree of likelihood is a breakdown in Turkey's security relationship with the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and Middle East
280. The State of Iraq
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Within days of the official ceremonies marking the end of the U.S. mission in Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved to indict Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges and sought to remove Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq from his position, triggering a major political crisis that fully revealed Iraq as an unstable, undemocratic country governed by raw competition for power and barely affected by institutional arrangements. Large-scale violence immediately flared up again, with a series of terrorist attacks against mostly Shi'i targets reminiscent of the worst days of 2006.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, War, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan
281. Understanding Unconventional Oil
- Author:
- Deborah Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Conventional oil production has peaked and is now on a terminal, long-run global decline. However, contrary to conventional wisdom, which many embraced during back-to-back oil crises in the 1970s, oil is not running out. It is, instead, changing form—geographically, geologically, chemically, and economically.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Markets, Oil, and Science and Technology
282. The Drivers of Insecurity in Mauritania
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The trans-Saharan region is emerging as a hotbed of instability and insecurity. A confluence of forces, from the revolts in North Africa and the proliferation of weapons to transnational trafficking of illicit goods and terrorist activity led by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, are generating acute interest in this part of the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Islam, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Mauritania
283. Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen
- Author:
- Nadwa Al-Dawsari
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The power-sharing deal signed by Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011 mentioned presidential elections, the formation of a national unity government, and a military commission to reform the armed forces. It was at best the first step in Yemen's recovery from the protracted turmoil and instability that wracked the country for months.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
284. Looking Beyond the Chicago Summit: Nuclear Weapons in Europe and the Future of NATO
- Author:
- George Perkovich, Steven Pifer, Malcolm Chalmers, Paul Schulte, and Jaclyn Tandler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will meet for a summit in Chicago this May to conclude their Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR), which was intended to be a vehicle for resolving key questions about the future role of nuclear weapons in NATO policy. However, NATO is unlikely to resolve the question of what to do about its forward deployed nuclear weapons before the summit.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Chicago
285. Building a Better Yemen
- Author:
- Charles Schmitz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Yemeni economy is often portrayed as a dire picture of impending disaster, as the country runs out of oil and even more devastatingly of water. Yemen's economic problems are real, but they are not caused by an absolute, irreparable shortage of resources. Rather, it is Yemen's contentious politics and its lack of institutional development that constitute the main obstacle to surmounting present economic difficulties.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Development, Economics, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
286. Libya's Troubled Transition
- Author:
- Paul Salem and Amanda Kadlec
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- More than a year after the outbreak of the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi's rule, Libya is in the midst of a challenging transition. Qaddafi is dead, his forty-two-year-old regime overthrown, and the country liberated. And now Libyans are laying the groundwork for elections that will start their country on the path to a new constitution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Arabia
287. Gaza Five Years On: Hamas Settles In
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As political upheavals spread over much of the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, regimes throughout the region were shaken and a few fell. But in both the West Bank and Gaza, a soft authoritarianism that has provoked uprisings elsewhere has only been further entrenching itself.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Education, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Gaza, and Cameroon
288. The Economic Agenda of the Islamist Parties
- Author:
- Ibrahim Saif and Muhammad Abu Rumman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Islamist parties have gained newfound political power across the Arab world. Four parties in particular—Tunisia's Ennahda, Egypt's Freedom and Justice Party, Morocco's Justice and Development Party, and Jordan's Islamic Action Front—have either made a strong showing at the ballot box or are expected to in upcoming elections. Their successes have dredged up fears about their political and social ambitions, with worries ranging from the enforcement of sharia law to the implications for Western tourists on these countries' beaches. Meanwhile, the parties' economic platforms have largely been overlooked, despite the serious challenges that lie ahead for the economies of the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Islam, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and Arabia
289. Sudan: From Conflict to Conflict
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Mai El-Sadany
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Less than a year after the old “greater” Sudan split into the northern Republic of Sudan and the new Republic of South Sudan—or North and South Sudan, for clarity—the two countries were again in a state of war. Years of international efforts to bring an end to decades of conflict by helping to negotiate the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 and later efforts to ensure a smooth separation of North and South appear to have come to naught.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Genocide, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
290. India and Europe in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Bernd von Muenchow-Pohl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The image of India as an emerging power is widely held, but there is equal reason to see the European Union as an emerging power, too, even at the risk of raising eyebrows. Like India, the EU seeks to become a global political player on top of being a great economic power. As the global power dynamic shifts, both are trying to define their roles in an emerging multipolar world. The question arises whether closer cooperation can help the EU and India to achieve their ambitions. Though they have committed to a strategic partnership, in its present state the EU-India relationship has been likened to a “loveless arranged marriage.” With each increasingly absorbed by domestic problems, the prospects for closer ties are fading, notwithstanding the opportunities that would be lost.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, India, and Asia
291. The Rise of Egypt's Workers
- Author:
- Joel Beinin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Workers have long sought to bring change to the Egyptian system, yet the independent labor movement has only recently begun to find a nationwide voice. As Egypt's sole legal trade union organization and an arm of the state for nearly sixty years, the Egyptian Trade Union Federation (ETUF) has had a monopoly on representing workers. Though its mission is to control workers as much as it is to represent them, ETUF has been unable to prevent the militant labor dissidence that has escalated since the late 1990s. Workers were by far the largest component of the burgeoning culture of protest in the 2000s that undermined the legitimacy of the Mubarak regime.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, Insurgency, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
292. In Search of the Global Middle Class: A New Index
- Author:
- Uri Dadush and Shimelse Ali
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The swelling middle class in emerging economies has received much attention in recent years, as it well should. The implications of its rise are far-reaching, from expanding economic opportunity to transforming the political landscape in some of the world's most populous countries. Measuring the middle class, however, is no easy task. There is no widely accepted definition of what constitutes the middle class, and the commonly used income-based measures suffer from a number of deficiencies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Political Economy, Poverty, and Social Stratification
293. Nonalignment Redux: The Perils of Old Wine in New Skins
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since the Cold War ended, India has been persistently criticized for lacking a grand strategy. Like many other complaints about India, this one, too, is curious because the country has been nothing if not the exemplar of excessive planning for much of its modern history. In fact, ever since India was incarnated as an independent state in 1947, it has always had a clear and arguably defensible grand strategy—even if it lacked a summary document that articulated its national aims.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, and Post Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia
294. Tunisian Media in Transition
- Author:
- Fatima el-Issawi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The media in Tunisia has undergone drastic changes since the country's 2011 revolution. From content that was once uniform and restricted in the extreme, Tunisian media outlets have moved away from echoing the state line and are now providing diverse output. A host of new media outlets have cropped up. The legal framework and state institutions governing the industry are undergoing reform. And most importantly, journalists are now able to experience political journalism firsthand.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Mass Media, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia
295. The Big Three in EU Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Stefan Lehne
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- To an outside observer, Europe acts as a bloc with all 27 member states discussing issues and unanimously making decisions on foreign policy. But behind the scenes lies a tacit agreement that the largest member states with the most resources take the lead. Three of those states are in a category of their own: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany
296. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation
- Author:
- KUIK Cheng-Chwee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, and Israel
297. Freedom and Reform at Egypt's Universities
- Author:
- Ursula Lindsey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Underfunded, understaffed, and suffering from opaque governance and political repression, the public higher education system that Egypt's new civilian government inherited from the Mubarak era is deeply flawed. Yet change in this area has stopped far short of a revolution.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Egypt
298. Religious Education and Pluralism in Egypt and Tunisia
- Author:
- Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Religion occupies a prominent position in the education systems of all Arab countries. With the rise of Islamists across the Arab world, especially in Egypt and Tunisia, there is a possibility that the new parties in power will update education curricula to reflect conservative Islamic beliefs.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Education, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
299. Above the State: The Officers' Republic in Egypt
- Author:
- Yezid Sayigh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Egypt's new, democratically elected officials are struggling with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) for control of the country's post-Mubarak future. The SCAF, which has ruled over Egypt since early 2011, is attempting to enshrine its custodianship of the country in the constitution. The civilian authorities are trying to wrest control from a military institution that has been the mainstay of authoritarian power for decades, and that now seeks to remain above the law. No less than the fate of Egypt's transition is at stake.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Egypt
300. The End of the Putin Era?
- Author:
- Andrew C. Monaghan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Much recent commentary on Russia consists of binary attempts to predict the country's future: Putin or Medvedev? Will Putin maintain his grip on power or will his system collapse? The result is a short-sighted and one-dimensional discussion. The reality is much more complicated.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Development, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia