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1. Parliamentary oversight of the police and the EU accession process – a missing link in the fundamentals-first approach

Author:
Marija Ignjatijevic
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
BCSP Researcher Marija Ignjatijević analyses parliamentary oversight of the police in Serbia through the lens of the European integration process and offers recommendations on how to connect it to the negotiating Chapter 24 – Justice, Freedom and Security. Parliamentary oversight of police work represents a critical measure in strengthening the integrity and operational independence of the police. At the same time, these features of the police work are crucial in attaining benchmarks for negotiating Chapter 24 in Serbia’s EU accession process. Along with judiciary, functional and democratically governed police is a prerequisite for the rule of law and other fundamental principles of the EU accession process. Chapter 24 occupies an even more important position within the revised methodology for accession negotiations, since benchmarks in the Cluster 1 (Fundamentals) are a precondition for advancements in all the other clusters. In the Justice, Freedom, and Security field (Chapter 24), the National Assembly plays an important role, foremost by passing and amending the laws through which domestic legislation harmonizes with the regulations of the European Union. The action plan for the Chapter 24 recognizes the role of the National Assembly in achieving benchmarks in this area, most often precisely through changes in the normative framework, i.e. adoption of new or changes to old legal regulations and confirmation of international agreements. However, the role of the National Assembly should be more significant in practice, although this cannot be precisely expressed through technical measures and activities. Defining obligations in the Action Plan might even produce a counter effect and further boost the “tick the box” approach, with the National Assembly captured by the ruling party proficient in simulating its democratic features. The primarily technical action plan cannot bind the National Assembly to effectively oversee the police since the problem is political – there is a lack of political will to control the security sector, the level of democratic culture is low, and the National Assembly is captured by the ruling party. It is, therefore, necessary to explore mechanisms which could make a clear bond between the political criteria which are part of the Fundamentals cluster, such as the functioning democratic institutions, and concrete measures from the action plans, like the ones aimed at strengthening police integrity. Parliamentary oversight of the police is one such connector since it is a vital democratic feature which can boost police integrity and reforms, essential Chapter 24 criteria and prerequisite for other elements of the Fundamentals cluster.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Police
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

2. Geopolitics is Local – Ramifications of Chinese Projects for Human Security in Serbia

Author:
Maja Bjelos and Vuk Vuksanovic
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This report examines the Chinese presence in Serbia through a human security lens, in terms of how it impacts the quality of life and the security of local communities. China’s “no-strings attached” financing of infrastructure has become attractive for Serbia’s ruling elite after the global financial crisis of 2008. However, it took Chinese companies almost a decade to take over two state-owned giants – the Smederevo Steel Mill and the RTB Copper Smelter – and invest in the construction of a new tyre factory. To maintain social peace, employment and legitimise themselves among the constituents, the ruling elite invested a lot of effort in facilitating the arrival of Chinese capital. This effort included drafting laws that suited PRC investors, donating arable land and providing subsidies, circumventing environmental and construction standards, turning a blind eye to labour and human rights violations, and making many other concessions at the expense of citizens and the local communities. Lack of transparency and public scrutiny is common to all PRC investments. In a short period of time, the profit-oriented exploitation of natural resources by PRC investors has led to various environmental hazards that have endangered public health and human existence, causing environmental (anti-government) protests and resentment towards the Chinese. But combating environmental threats and rule of law violations associated with the Chinese projects is difficult, especially since the Serbian government is willing to quell criticism and provide such projects with full political backing. The research was conducted in three Serbian cities with large PRC investments – Smederevo, Bor and Zrenjanin – to establish the impact of these projects on local communities and how they affect human security, understood in terms of human rights and human dignity. Several forms of human security endangerment were observed in the course of the research project: environmental hazards, public health, socio-economic and human rights, rule of law, cross-cultural issues and surveillance.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Local
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Serbia

3. Leaving Stabilocracy Behind – Rethinking the French Approach to the Western Balkans

Author:
Luka Steric
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In this paper, BCSP researcher Luka Steric calls for the U-turn in the French and EU approach to the Western Balkans, calling for the end of support for stabilocracy. The spring elections have resulted in regime continuity in both France and Serbia. President Macron has secured the second term with a convincing victory in the second round against the archrival Marine Le Pen. Simultaneously, President Vucic has stroke another landslide victory in the first round of the elections, with his Progressive Party holding on to power although losing absolute majority in the Parliament for the first time since 2014. However, the political landscape has changed radically since their previous victories five years ago. The war in Ukraine has shifted the focus of the European Union toward geopolitics, pushing the Western Balkans, seemingly forgotten, back on the European agenda. The threats of instability and the rising influence of third powers in the region have rung the alarm in the new global context, opening the floor for the discussion on how to revamp the European strategy which has been largely inadequate for the past decade. In contrast to previous periods in which France had a more passive approach and appeared mostly indifferent to the developments in the Western Balkans, during the first term of Macron’s presidency the official Paris has retaken a major role on the regional stage. As part of his ambition to become the political leader of Europe, Macron has launched several initiatives attempting to modify the European enlargement policy. Based on the consequences of these initiatives, we can conclude that the goal was to stop the enlargement process for a foreseeable future, substituting it with an economic and political presence that would ensure the stability of the region within the European sphere of influence. For this purpose, Macron was more than ready to collaborate with autocratic regimes such as the one in Serbia which he believed to be crucial for keeping the Western Balkans relatively stable. This strategy has contributed to the region steadily becoming both less secure and less democratic, eroding the once unquestionable European credibility and influence. The tectonic shifts we are witnessing on the European continent should be a wake-up call to critically evaluate and rethink the French policy in the Western Balkans, including a U-turn in the relationship with the current regime in Belgrade.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Balkans

4. Covidocracy in the Election Process – An Analysis of the Pandemic Narrative Serving the State Capture

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In this analysis, the predominant narratives of the pandemic shall be explored, as well as the ways they have impacted the state capturing process in the period from the second half of 2021 till 3 April 2022, when the general and presidential elections took place in Serbia. The crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic denuded the authoritarian tendencies in Serbia, both in the state and in the society, making visible the size and scope of state capturing. To what extent this process has set in may be best visible by the way the institutions and authorities have made decisions during the pandemic management, as well as by the decision they have taken. It has been 26 months since the first infection case was registered in Serbia and since the two-month long state of emergency was introduced. Ever since, decisions have been taken towards reducing the virus spread, but also disregarding the opinions of experts in this field (epidemiologists, virologists and immunologists). The decisions were made depending on the ruling elite’s political interests. For the first year and a half after the outbreak, the mainstream discourse imposed by the authorities was that the state and the society were at war. All the elements of war discourse were noticeable in the statements of public officials, even experts – there is an enemy out there whom we must beat (the virus), emergency measures like curfew were introduced, the story of doctors like frontline warriors was imposed, and allies were also chosen for this war. The narrative of war like predominant discourse of fighting the pandemic provided legitimacy for the highest officials to take the crucial decisions in countering the pandemic – precisely this enabled the President of the Republic or the Prime Minister to take and communicate the most important decisions regarding this “war”, while experts were placed at the margins of decision-making. Finally, the top officials are competent for declaring victory at war, and the ruling party declared the victory over the pandemic twice, both times on the eve of elections – first time in May 2020, and second in March 2022. However, during the autumn 2021, the narrative of war as the prevalent one during the pandemic was replaced by quiet and silence, the story of the pandemic was pushed to the margins, which was particularly evident in the April 2022 pre-election period.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

5. Pandemic Management – Lessons Learned for a Safer Future

Author:
Milja Dimitrijevic and Rade Panic
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How the pandemic was managed in Serbia and what are the recommendations for better coping in similar situations in the future, read in the analysis made by BCSP in cooperation with the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists of Serbia. The political and social context in which the pandemic management in Serbia is analysed is marked by a drastic decline in the level of democracy in the country, as well as the strengthening of authoritarian tendencies in the state and society within the process of “capturing the state” by the ruling elite. Unfortunately, Serbia cannot boast of successful results, especially if we take into account the number of deceased citizens, as well as the low level of vaccination compared to European Union countries. The number of deceased citizens in 2021 is as much as 18 percent higher than in the same period in 2020. Statistical data show that in 2021, most people died in Serbia within one year since the end of World War II. These data speak volumes about the results of the crisis management caused by the COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia. In this analysis, the focus is on two aspects of pandemic management – the legal aspects of crisis management and the health system’s readiness to deal with the crisis. The analysis was created within the framework of informal cooperation between the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy and the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists of Serbia. The author of the paper on the legal aspects of pandemic management is a lawyer from the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists Milja Dimitrijević, while the part about the capacities of the health system was written by Dr. Rade Panić, the President of the Union of Doctors and Pharmacists. The analysis was created within the survey that was conducted from October 2021 to March 2022. Precisely because of that, some data in the analysis were presented during the writing of the analysis itself, which were relevant during the research and writing the analysis (for example, when writing about the number of infected citizens, or the number of deceased doctors). Finally, the analysis concludes with certain recommendations necessary to improve the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, but possibly some other pandemics in the future.
Topic:
Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

6. (Absence of) Trust and Security in the Second Year of the Pandemic – Serbian Citizens’ Opinions about the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Maja Bjelos and Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
What do Serbian citizens think about the COVID-19 pandemic? What are their opinions about vaccination? Do they trust the institutions that were managing the pandemic? We present you an analysis of citizens' attitudes on these topics. The public opinion poll on the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, the process of immunisation of the population and the impact of the pandemic on the work of institutions and the status of democracy was conducted during the relatively calm epidemiological period, just before the big wave in late 2021 and early 2022, when Serbia had a record number of registered citizens newly infected with the Coronavirus. At the same time, the survey was conducted in the period when all adult citizens were offered the so-called booster or the third dose of the vaccine against COVID-19. The observed period was marked by the political and security crisis in Kosovo, so the pandemic was not in the focus of public and political discussion. In the meantime, the gradual calming of the situation regarding the pandemic itself, and primarily the reduction of the number of newly infected and dead, created space for the analysis and assessment of the way the pandemic had been managed.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

7. Rethinking the Dutch position towards the Western Balkans in the new security environment in Europe

Author:
Arlinda Rrustemi, Luka Steric, and Marko Drajic
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The main goal of this paper is to present lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The year 2022 brought many political, legal, and security changes to Europe. Most importantly, events which had been considered unthinkable for decades have occurred. On February 24th, Russia commenced a fullscale military invasion of Ukraine, conducting attacks that have caused 7,061civilian deaths, while some sources report up 21,000 deaths only in Mariupol, indiscriminate attacks in violation of the laws of war that may amount to war crimes, and more than five million refugees. The European response was unified and timely. A clear willingness to stand by the side of Ukraine has been shown and sanctions are enforced against Russia by all EU member states (MS), while providing aid in various forms. An uptick in polarization, populism and far right sentiment can be observed in Victor Orban’s success in the Hungarian April Elections and in Marine le Pen’s persisting into the second round of the French Presidential election. Not only the right political spectrum is gaining traction but also the left. The Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has been defeated by a left wing party, the Freedom Movement, founded a year ago. In addition, European governments that are key to stability and peace of the Western Balkans region are experiencing drastic political changes. The new German government that succeeded Angela Merkel’s cabinet after one and a half decade is posing new foreign and security policy questions. Macron suggested an end to the enlargement agenda as we know it, proposing the political European community as an alternative. Tensions in terms of hate and acts of violence have been reported in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, raising further questions about the future of the Western Balkans in Europe. War in the continent posed a threat to the credibility and legitimacy of the European project. It questions European values and is an existential threat to the integration process, and European security. Ursula von der Leyen offered a speedy response to Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union, for which Ukraine applied in times of conflict. This is the first time in history that a nation during conflict applies for EU membership. The Ukrainian application and the war have resulted in many uncertainties for Europe. This raises questions surrounding the accession processes of other countries in the Western Balkans region, such as Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. An analysis of the EU integration policy in the Western Balkans region is therefore crucial given the recent events. Progress towards EU integration has varied among countries in the Western Balkans region. The closest to the EU integration are Montenegro and Serbia with many chapters open. North Macedonia and Albania are waiting to start formal negotiations. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are farthest removed due to their internally and externally driven fragilities. The main goal of the report is to question the current approach while providing a fresh perspective on the EU’s integration policy, given the recent security and political events. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The following sections outline Dutch foreign policy, followed by recent political, security and legal developments in the Western Balkans region. The final section outlines lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe

8. They melted down our tanks, we are creating the strongest power in the region – militarist narratives serving the purpose of state capturing

Author:
Luka Steric
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In this publication, BCSP researcher Luka Šterić analyzes how are the militarist narratives used for the legitimising in public the capturing of the state. Defence system capturing is done in various ways. The authorities are using the procurement of armament from different parties to achieve foreign policy goals in order to reduce the external pressure on the authoritarian regime. Insisting on military neutrality and foreign policy balancing, Serbia is trying to keep access to both the Eastern and Western armament markets. Also, through non-transparent contracts, individuals and companies close to the government opulently profit at the expense of the military industry, as well as through exporting weapons oftentimes conducted in contravention of both domestic and international law and norms. However, the focus of this analysis shall be on the militarist narratives constructed by the authorities to legitimise in public the capturing of the state and its defence system. In this publication, we shall present three major militarist narratives used by the authorities to capture the state: the narrative of the personal power of the “commander-in-chief“, the narrative of non-transparent armament in order to defend the country from the external enemy and the narrative of discrediting criticism and political opponents on topics of defence. The narrative of efficient personal power in the defence system has got a dual function. On the one hand, building the cult of a leader as the only guarantor of the state’s success, thus the Army’s success, justifies the non-constitutional concentration of power in the hands of the President. On the other hand, it normalises the military hierarchy as the most efficient model for civilian authorities’ structure, too, whereby the institutional and other mechanisms of government control are discredited. The narrative about the external enemy and the necessity of armament serves to justify the reduced transparency and scandals related to the defence system. The narrative about the inept and non-patriotic former government is used for settling the political accounts with political opponents, as well as for suppression of any criticism against the regime regarding the topics of defence.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Military
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Resilience to Violent Extremism in Serbia: The Case of Sanjak

Author:
Predrag Petrovic and Marija Ignjatijevic
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This paper presents the factors enabling the environment for extremism and the resilience factors to violent extremism in the case of Sanjak. Many experts had gloomy forecasts about violent Islamist extremism and terrorism in Serbia. Sanjak – the southwest region in Serbia populated by Muslim majority – was even dubbed Jihadist hotbed, as it was the center for further spreading ultra-conservative Salafism from the neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina into Serbia, and a region where the recruitment of Syrian foreign fighters took place. Among the most influential militant Salafi leaders in Vienna who maintained contacts with ISIS there were individuals from Sanjak. However, despite these forecasts and the presence of both push and pull factors of violent extremism, Sanjak has proved to be very resilient to violent Islamist extremism. Compared to other countries in the Western Balkans, a relatively small number of people from Serbia (49 of them including women and children) joined militant Islamist groups in Syria. Only a few incidents involving militant Salafis and failed terrorist plots happened. People in Sanjak showed both resilience to violent extremism and to the spread of the ultra-conservative interpretation of Islam. In this paper, we first identify the cases of violent extremism and then map and analyze factors that make Sanjak enabling environment for extremism. The second part of the paper is dedicated to understanding key resilience factors to violent extremism showcased in Sanjak. Ethno-nationalism and far-right extremism are only analyzed as possible drivers of Islamist radicalization. This report is based on extensive field research in Belgrade, Novi Pazar, Sjenica, and Tutin between July and September 2021, during which a total of 25 interviews were conducted.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Violence, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

10. Public perception of Serbia’s foreign policy

Author:
Milos Popovic and Sonja Stojanovic Gajic
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The latest Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) working study summarizes the key findings of a survey on relations towards major powers and their influence on Serbia and Serbia’s foreign policy. The research was conducted from 26 December 2016 until 14 January 2017 on reprezentative sample of 1,403 adult citizens of Serbia (excluding Kosovo).
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Serbia

11. Public Opinion on the Security of Serbia and Dialogue with Pristina

Author:
Milos Popovic and Sonja Stojanovic Gajic
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The latest BCSP working study summarizes the key findings of a survey on national security and responses to security threats. The research was conducted from 26 December 2016 until 14 January 2017 on reprezentative sample of 1,403 adult citizens of Serbia (excluding Kosovo).
Topic:
International Security and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Serbia

12. The Future of International Police Missions in the New Global Security Environment – Contribution of Western Balkans Police Forces to EU’s International Policing

Author:
Andreja Bogdanovski and Uros Zivkovic
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The existence of a police component in UN peace operations is not a novelty. It goes back half a century ago and was first introduced in the Congo in the 1960’s. Embedding police components in UN missions became more extensive at the end of the 90’s. Over the years, with the change of the context of conflicts (from interstate to intrastate) peace support operations have evolved and are now very much shaped to reflect political and security developments on the ground. International policing efforts are an extremely important factor in establishing and maintaining international security today. Although military peace support operations and national military contributions are predominant, not all security problems can have a military solution. Regardless of the security context, police functions and mechanisms are extremely necessary for a successful peace support operation.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. What about the women? Understanding and Addressing the Problem of ISIS Female Recruitment in the Western Balkans

Author:
Eric Mietz
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In many ways, female recruits, both from the Western Balkans and other regions, are attracted to the Islamic State for the exact same reasons as men, highlights BCSP guest researcher Eric Mietz
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Balkans