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11021. The War in Afghanistan: Key Trends in the Fighting and ANSF Development in the DoD 1230 Report and Year-End NTM-A Reporting

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Recent reporting by the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan (NTM-A) and the Department of Defense provides added insight into how the course of the fighting tracks with the development of Afghan security forces. The metrics in this analysis are not a substitute for reading the detailed Department of Defense reporting on Afghan force development available in the publications section of DoD's web site at defenselink.gov, or the new NTM-A report, "Year in Review, November 2009 to November 2010." They do show, however, that there is now a far more credible prospect that Afghan forces will be ready for transition in 2014, and capable of largely assuming responsibility for security operations. The one critical caveat is that these efforts must continue to be properly funded, and that NATO has not yet obtained anything like the quantity and quality of trainers and partners it needs to win. These metrics make it clear that this is a the highest single priority for added military contributions from NATO countries, and that current assets meet less that 40% of the requirement needed by mid-2011.
Topic:
Security, NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

11022. Managing the Challenge of Russian Energy Policies

Author:
Keith C. Smith
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the leaders of Russia, including then-President Boris Yeltsin, searched for new methods of continuing to exert influence over the former Soviet-controlled region. The Kremlin at first used an energy blockade to the Baltic States in 1990 in an attempt to prevent their breakaway from the Soviet Union. After that failed, it then focused on the growing opposition in the former republics of the Soviet Union and in East Central Europe to its foreign and economic policies, and in particular on demands that Russian military forces withdraw from the newly independent states. The Kremlin leadership quickly recognized that short of military action, its major foreign policy tool was the denial or threat of denial of access to Russia's vast oil and gas resources. The economies of East European and Central Asian countries, and especially their rail and pipeline infrastructures, had been hardwired by Soviet leaders to assure total dependency on Moscow for their raw materials, including oil, gas, coal, and nuclear fuel.
Topic:
Cold War, Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

11023. Radical Islam in the North Caucasus

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms large, the situation in the "Big Caucasus" seems less pressing and thus overshadowed. The worst scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period of the 2008 August war have not been realized. The Russian attempt to "replace the regime" of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to "nudge Georgia into a rematch," which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus, the first precedent of a revision of borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. After the "hot August" of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the "Big Caucasus" as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key stakeholder for the whole region.
Topic:
NATO, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Central Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow, and United Nations

11024. Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

Author:
Melissa Murphy and Wen Jin Yuan
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
After a decade of negotiations revolving around regional monetary cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus China, Japan, and South Korea (ASEAN+3) finally reached agreement to establish a regional foreign reserve pool in February 2009. The launch of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) came amid the global financial crisis, when the ASEAN nations hit so hard during the 1997 Asian financial crisis were once again reminded of the utility of a joint policy initiative to ensure regional financial stability.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

11025. Sudanese Perspectives on the 2010 Referendum

Author:
Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are a little more than one month away from casting their votes in a referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or become an independent state. The referendum is the most significant milestone in a six-year interim period that began with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005. The CPA was the outcome of a U.S.-backed process that successfully brought an end to almost 40 years of civil war between the North and South. Two votes are scheduled to take place on January 9, 2011. In the first, Southern Sudanese will vote on whether they wish to secede from the North and form an independent country in the South. At the same time, voters in the border enclave of Abyei will decide whether to remain in the North or join the South. CSIS Africa Program staff, Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy, traveled to Khartoum and the southern capital, Juba, in October to gauge views about the forthcoming referenda and assess how preparations are proceeding ahead of the polls.
Topic:
Civil War, Islam, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

11026. India and the Civil War in Sri Lanka: On the Failures of Regional Conflict Management in South Asia

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper provides an assessment of India's role in the final years of the civil war in Sri Lanka (2003-2009). In particular, it looks for explanations for India's inability to act as a conflict manager in its own region, which is in contrast to predominant assumptions about the role of powerful regional states. It also seeks to explain the surprising turn in India's approach to the conflict, when in 2007 New Delhi began to rather explicitly support the Sri Lankan government—in disregard of its traditional preference for a peaceful solution and its sensitivity for the fate of Sri Lankan Tamils. While historical and domestic pressures led to India's indecisive approach during the years 2003-2007, starting from 2007 regional and international factors—most notably the skillful diplomacy of the Sri Lankan government and the growing Chinese presence there—induced New Delhi to support the government side in order to keep some leverage on Sri Lankan affairs. The analysis of the Sri Lankan case opens several avenues for further research in the fields of regional conflict management and foreign policy analysis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and New Delhi

11027. UN Security Council Enlargement and U.S. Interests

Author:
Kara C. McDonald and Stewart M. Patrick
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Advancing U.S. national interests in an era of global threats depends on effective multilateral action. Global institutions inherited from the past are struggling to adapt to the rise of new challenges and powers. “The international architecture of the 20th century is buckling,” declares the new U.S. National Security Strategy. President Barack Obama has committed his administration to renovating outdated institutions and integrating emerging powers as pillars of a rule-based international order. Renovation of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and its membership must be a core component of this agenda. President Obama's announcement in November 2010 of U.S. support for a permanent UNSC seat for India is a critical first step in this direction.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Organization, United Nations, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

11028. Dangerous Little Stones: Diamonds in the Central African Republic

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the diamond mines of the Central African Republic (CAR), extreme poverty and armed conflict put thousands of lives in danger. President François Bozizé keeps tight control of the diamond sector to enrich and empower his own ethnic group but does little to alleviate the poverty that drives informal miners to dig in perilous conditions. Stringent export taxes incentivise smuggling that the mining authorities are too few and too corrupt to stop. These factors combined – a parasitic state, poverty and largely unchecked crime – move jealous factions to launch rebellions and enable armed groups to collect new recruits and profit from mining and selling diamonds illegally. To ensure diamonds fuel developmen t not bloodshed, root and branch reform of the sector must become a core priority of the country's peacebuilding strategy.
Topic:
Political Violence, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa

11029. China's Out of Area Naval Operations: Case Studies, Trajectories, Obstacles, and Potential Solutions

Author:
Christopher D. Yung and Ross Rustici
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This study seeks to understand the future direction of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) with regard to out of area deployments and power projection. The assessment is based on the history of past PLAN out of area deployments and an analysis of out of area operations of other military forces. Both short- and long-term lenses are employed to understand the scope and direction of China's defense planning and strategic decisions.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

11030. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy 2010

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the Economist Intelligence Unit's democracy index. It reflects the situation as of November 2010. The first edition, published in The Economist's The World in 2007, measured the state of democracy in September 2006 and the second edition covered the situation towards the end of 2008. The index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide for 165 independent states and two territories—this covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world's independent states (micro states are excluded). The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: full democracies; flawed democracies; hybrid regimes; and authoritarian regimes.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

11031. 2010 Academic Rankings of World Universities

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for World-Class Universities
Abstract:
The 2010 Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU) is released today by the Center for World-Class Universities of Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Starting from 2003, ARWU has been presenting the world top 500 universities annually based on a set of objective indicators and third-party data. ARWU has been recognized as the precursor of global university rankings and one of the most influential lists.
Topic:
Education and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China and Colombia

11032. Northern Nigeria: Background to Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence in northern Nigeria has flared up periodically over the last 30 years. Mainly in the form of urban riots, it has pitted Muslims against Christians and has seen confrontations between different Islamic sects. Although there have been some successes in conflict management in the last decade, the 2009 and 2010 troubles in Bauchi, Borno and Yobe states involving the radical Boko Haram sect show that violence still may flare up at any moment. If the situation were to deteriorate significantly, especially on Christian-Muslim lines, it could have serious repercussions for national cohesion in the build up to national elections in April 2011. To deal with the risks, community-level initiatives need to be reinforced, a more subtle security response should be formulated and the management of public resources must be improved. While some in the West panic at what they see as growing Islamic radicalism in the region, the roots of the problem are more complex and lie in Nigeria's history and contemporary politics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

11033. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia

Author:
Juzhong Zhuang, Suphachol Suphachalasai, and Jindra Nuella Samson
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
CSoutheast Asia is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change due to its long coastlines, high concentration of population and economic activity in coastal areas, and heavy reliance on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. Climate change is already affecting the region, as shown by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones in recent decades.
Topic:
Climate Change and Development
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

11034. By the People: The Rise of Citizen Journalism

Author:
Eugene L. Meyer
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Citizen journalism–it has an almost Norman Rockwell ring to it, something akin to his iconic town meeting cover for the Saturday Evening Post, with citizens rising to speak their minds in furtherance of the democratic ideal. Only now, citizens are speaking online, in many cases helping to disseminate the information an informed electorate needs for democracy to exist and flourish.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United Arab Emirates

11035. H1N1 Outbreak in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt

Author:
Sania Nishtar
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Compared to many other countries in Asia, the outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 appeared to be of minor concern to Pakistan. This paper analyses, using qualitative research methods, the extent to which such a notion was justified and the response of Pakistan's health system to the outbreak, exploring the degree to which it is responsive to problems posed by an emerging infection. It looks at the health system measures introduced prior to the H1N1 outbreak (after the implementation of the International Health Regulations 2005) as these came into play during this episode, as well as specific measures introduced subsequent to the H1N1 outbreak.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Globalization, Health, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

11036. Cyprus: Bridging the Property Divide

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The property issue is one of the most intractable knots in the settlement of the Cyprus dispute, without which stability in the Eastern Mediterranean remains fragile. Greek and Turkish Cypriots own tens of thousands of buildings and parcels of land on both sides of the divided island. A convincing plan to resolve conflicting claims would give great support to reunification efforts and persuade external partners of Cypriots' will to find a compromise, even as the 2011 electoral calendar sets what is in effect a deadline for the present negotiations. But as Cypriot politicians and Turkey fail to come to terms, the property question is increasingly being atomised by individual actions and the courts – a process that will be more expensive, slow and inefficient for all than a comprehensive property settlement. With a comprehensive deal proving elusive, heavy court and administrative penalties and the actions of Cypriot individuals mean that the property issue can no longer be ignored or avoided. New ideas are urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece

11037. Indonesia: Preventing Violence in Local Elections

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia needs to learn promptly the lessons from the sporadic violence witnessed in its local elections during 2010 as there is some evidence these easily preventable incidents could be increasing in frequency since the last cycle. While most district polls pass peacefully, the small number that do not reveals nationwide institutional weaknesses that should be fixed. These contests are often intense personal rivalries for community power that can be highly emotive and, if not closely watched, can quickly turn violent. While religious and ethnic ties are accentuated by these tense races, to date they have not triggered any sectarian schisms. Many confrontations could be avoided in future polls by relatively simple changes in practices, policies and laws. Rather than being too small for national attention, these political battles matter to this large country because, since decentralisation, it is this level of public administration that has the greatest impact on the lives of citizens. How these elections take place can determine the judgments that voters make on the success or failure of democracy throughout the archipelago.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

11038. Dealing with Iran: How can the EU achieve its strategic objectives?

Author:
Shirin Pakfar
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Europe and Iran have had important political, cultural and commercial relations that date back several centuries, but these relations have been steadily strained since 2002 when the uncertainty with regard to Iran's nuclear program became an issue of international concern. In demonstrating its role as an important foreign-policy actor capable of taking the lead in resolving global crises, through the leadership of France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the EU3) the EU has spearheaded efforts to obtain a solution to the deadlock between Tehran and the international community over Iran's nuclear program. This approach has not been fully successful in achieving its goal and has contributed to straining EU-Iran relations. The EU has yet to develop a unified, independent and long-term strategy vis-à-vis Iran that would enable it to maintain a constructive relationship with Tehran and achieve its strategic objectives without compromising its core values. The four strategies available to the EU are: a) use of force/military action; b) containment and deterrence; c) engagement; and d) non-entanglement. While the EU's short–term tactics represent a mixture of engagement and containment, this paper argues that, in the case of Iran, the two approaches cancel each other out. To increase its leverage on Iran on the nuclear issue and beyond, the EU must adopt a realpolitik strategy of détente, building confidence with the regime in Tehran and obtaining policy progress through non-controversial mutual areas of interest. The EU High Representative should also take a more active role in leading the EU's efforts.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

11039. U.S. Government Funding for Media Development

Author:
Laura Mottaz
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Center for International Media Assistance (CIMA) , a project of the National Endowment for Democracy, aims to strengthen the support, raise the visibility, and improve the effectiveness of media assistance programs by providing information, building networks, conducting research, and highlighting the indispensable role independent media play in the creation and development of sustainable democracies around the world. An important aspect of CIMA's work is to research ways to attract additional U.S. private sector interest in and support for international media development.
Topic:
Development and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States

11040. Learning about Schools in Development

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There has been considerable progress in school construction and enrollment worldwide. Paying kids to go to school can help overcome remaining demand-side barriers to enrollment. Nonetheless, the quality of education appears very poor across the developing world, limiting development impact. Thus we should measure and promote learning not schooling. Conditional cash transfers to students on the basis of attendance and scores, school choice, decentralization combined with published test results, and teacher pay based on attendance and performance may help. But learning outcomes are primarily affected by the broader environment in which students live, suggesting a learning agenda that stretches far beyond education ministries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and East Asia