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61. Responding to Security Challenges in East Asia: Three Perspectives

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper examines the security context of the Australia- Indonesia relationship. East Asia presents a fundamental paradox for scholars of international relations. It has arguably more sources of interstate tension than any other region of the developing world. However, it has experienced no signi cant interstate con ict since the end of the China-Vietnam war in 1979. After brie y reviewing the principal security challenges that East Asia faces, the paper then looks at the three categories of explanations for the long peace in the region: hegemony and balancing; institutions and elite socialization; and economic interdependence. By early 2016, East Asia appeared to be facing the most unsettled security environment it has experienced for four decades. The new sources of interstate tensions present challenges for the mechanisms that have previously maintained peace in the region. Washington’s “pivot” to Asia has brought the United States into a more direct policy of balancing against China than in the past — but its sustainability and medium-term consequences remain unclear. Meanwhile, regional institutions, despite growing in numbers, are seemingly incapable of effectively addressing the new security challenges. A need for better leadership and initiatives is evident, both within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and in the broader regional context. Finally, recent developments in the region and elsewhere have illustrated the challenges of using economic interdependence as a lever over unwelcome state behaviour.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Australia/Pacific

62. The Evolution of Bonding Technology, Creditor Committees and the IMF

Author:
James A. Haley
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper reviews a range of issues associated with proposals for creditor engagement clauses (CECs) in sovereign bond contracts. CECs have moved onto the international policy agenda in the wake of the recent introduction of model “second-generation” collective action clauses (CACs) designed to address problems highlighted by the protracted litigation between Argentina and its holdout creditors. Speci cally, the new CACs should limit the ability of holdout creditors to impede restructurings acceptable to a supermajority of creditors and address the problematic interpretation of pari passu language that has plagued the Argentina debt restructuring. However, the introduction of these clauses, building on the foundation laid a decade ago by Mexico’s innovation of rst-generation CACs, has led some observers to express concerns that the sovereign debt restructuring playing eld has become “tilted” to the bene t of sovereign borrowers. Recent contractual innovations should be balanced, these experts contend, with CECs requiring sovereign issuers to convene and negotiate with creditor committees.
Topic:
International Security and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

63. Patents and Internet Standards

Author:
Jorge L Contreras
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In recent years, high-pro le lawsuits involving standards- essential patents (SEPs) have made headlines in the United States, Europe and Asia, leading to a heated public debate regarding the role and impact of patents covering key interoperability standards. Enforcement agencies around the world have investigated and prosecuted alleged violations of competition law and private licensing commitments in connection with SEPs. Yet, while the debate has focused broadly on standardization and patents in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector, commentators have paid little attention to differences among technology layers within ICT. A review of case statistics shows that patent ling and assertion activity is substantially lower for Internet- related standards than for standards relating to telecommunications and other computing technologies. This paper analyzes historical and social factors that may have contributed to this divergence, focusing on the two principal Internet standards bodies: the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) and the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C). It offers a counternarrative to the dominant account portraying standards and SEPs as necessarily fraught with litigation and thereby in need of radical systemic change. Instead, it shows how standards policies that de-emphasize patent monetization have led to lower levels of disputes and litigation. It concludes by placing recent discussions of patenting and standards within the broader context of openness in network technologies and urges both industry participants and policy makers to look to the success of Internet standardization in a patent-light environment when considering the adoption of future rules and policies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, International Security, and Information Age
Political Geography:
Global Focus

64. The Relative Importance of Religion and Region in Explaining Differences in Political Economic and Social Attitudes in Iraq in 2014: Findings from the Arab Transformations Public Opinion Survey

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
Based on the Arab Transformations survey of Iraq in 2014, this paper examines the relative weight of religious identification and region of residence in several key areas, including main challenges perceived by the population, perceptions of security, of economic conditions, of governance, political mobilisation, corruption, and migration. Contrary to the perception that sectarian identity is the most important factor in understanding contemporary Iraqi politics, this analysis shows that religious identification is often a confounding variable, and that regional location better captures variations in respondents’ perceptions, including in key areas such as security, the economy, and migration.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

65. After the Arab Uprisings: Popular Expectations and the EU’s Response

Author:
Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:
The Arab Uprisings moved the EU to learn lessons from past mistakes and re-define its approach to development, democracy, and security. Reality, however, has fallen short of this aim. Analysis of the revised Neighbourhood Policy suggests it changed little, falling back on pre-Uprisings conceptions and discarding approaches which were more inclusive, organic, and better suited to long-term EU interests. Conversely, ArabTrans survey data shows MENA populations display precisely the more substantive and holistic approaches to democracy which EU policy discarded. It also shows supporters of the Uprisings were driven by dissatisfaction with the provision of satisfactory socioeconomic conditions and tackling corruption, and that their expectations of improvements remain largely frustrated. This mis-match between policy and popular expectations leaves existing difficulties unaddressed.
Topic:
International Security, International Affairs, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East

66. Ukraine’s relations with Russia, the EU and the US: The background, the current crisis and what must be done

Author:
Volodymyr Dubovyk
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of Euromaidan (Maidan II), Ukraine finds itself entangled in a deep crisis, which, while not necessarily existential, dramatically alters the country’s internal dynamics and international positioning vis-à-vis its neighbors and other significant regional and global players. To handle this crisis, Ukraine must find the right method of dealing with international players, especially the Russian Federation, the European Union and the United States of America. Ukraine should take certain actions against the new super-assertive and aggressive Russia. The European Union unquestionably has provided significant aid to Ukraine during these turbulent times. However, there remains great potential for cooperation, and questions linger regarding whether the EU is prepared to foot the bill for pulling Ukraine’s economy away from the brink indefinitely. Finally, the United States should by all means continue doing its good work in bringing attention to the situation in and around Ukraine in a variety of ways, including multilateral venues, unilateral initiatives, and bilateral frameworks. The fact that Ukraine is located in Europe does not make this crisis a mere European problem but a conflict with global repercussions.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and European Union

67. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future

Author:
Oleksandr Fisun
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

68. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia

Author:
Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

69. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author:
Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

70. Non-State Militias and Borderlands in Eastern Ukraine

Author:
Kimberly Marten
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Kimberly Marten considers the role that freewheeling private militias have played, both in the war in eastern Ukraine and in Ukraine’s politics more generally. While militias supplemented the Ukrainian army’s firepower, especially in the early phase of the war, we know from the experience of other countries that autonomous armed groups can also challenge the authority of the state and undermine its efficacy. How might militias shape Ukraine political trajectory and shape its security?
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, Non State Actors, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe