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1951. The Impact of RMA on Conventional Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis

Author:
Manjeet S. Pardesi
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This research aims to theoretically study if deterrence will prevail if and when states with RMA-ed militaries are faced with the prospect of conventional war. To answer this question, this study analyzes the impact of transformation on conventional deterrence in the event of a military standoff for three theoretical scenarios–(1) RMA capable conventional military vs. RMA-incapable conventional military (with the former state being nuclear or non-nuclear and with the latter being non-nuclear), (2) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states non-nuclear), and (3) two RMA-capable conventional militaries (both states nuclear). The study concludes that the current defense transformation is revolutionary simply because it permits the possibility of a limited conventional armed conflict between two nuclear weapons states (including great powers) and as such attempts to resuscitate the role of conventional military power in international politics. On the other hand, analogous to the nuclear revolution, the possession of RMA capabilities by two non-nuclear belligerents is likely to render large-scale conventional armed conflicts with unlimited military objectives between them unthinkable. However, this study warns that deterrence is weakened when only one state in an adversarial dyad is RMA-capable. Moreover, in any dyad involving RMA-capable states, deterrence is weakened when the RMA-capable state contemplates a strategy of limited aims (political and/or military) vis-à-vis its adversary. This tendency is all the more pronounced when it is contemplating a limited war waged with air power and missile strikes (low-cost, low-risk) than a limited war for territorial gains.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Development, and War

1952. Exploring the Emerging Social Movements in Africa at the Third African Social Forum

Author:
Marie Clark Brill
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
The African Social Forum was born out of the larger World Social Forum, which provides an annual open meeting place where groups and movements of civil society come together to dialogue and network towards collaborative action. The Third African Social Forum (ASF) took place in Lusaka, Zambia in mid-December 2004. This report includes notes and analysis of the African Social Forum and provides reflection s on emerging social movements in Africa.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, Lusaka, and Zambia

1953. A Silent Tsunami: The Urgent Need for Clean Water and Sanitation

Author:
William K. Reilly and Harriet C. Babbitt
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Few issues matter more to public health, economic opportunity, and environmental integrity than the availability of clean water and sanitation. With the 4th World Water Forum scheduled for Mexico City in March 2006, the Aspen Institute and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University conducted a multistakeholder dialogue to help highlight the importance of global water issues, suggest steps to provide services more rapidly and effectively, and to identify and draw attention to constructive ways the US government and other US participants can take part in the Forum.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States and Mexico

1954. Opening Opportunities, Building Ownership: Fulfilling the Promise of Microenterprise in the United States

Author:
Elaine L. Edgcomb and Joyce A. Klein
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The notion that a person can turn a dream into a small business by applying healthy doses of ingenuity, elbow grease and grit has resonated with Americans from the earliest days of this nation. Indeed, there is something so intrinsically appealing about that scenario that more than 22 million Americans are small business owners today—including some 20 million who operate "micro"—or very small—enterprises.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States and America

1955. Information Technology and the New Global Economy: Tensions, Opportunities, and the Role of Public Policy

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Changes in technology have been transforming commerce, politics, and culture for centuries. Yet it is now becoming clear that the explosion of the Internet and assorted digital technologies is provoking epochal changes in the global economy. Finance capital now roams the world with unprecedented speed. Transportation and logistics have become radically more efficient. Work readily moves to wherever it can be most skillfully and cheaply performed. Innovation and productivity are forging ahead, sometimes at blinding speeds.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, Government, and Science and Technology

1956. Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits

Author:
Menzie D. Chinn
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, the United States was the world's largest creditor nation, unsurpassed in its ownership of assets outside of its borders, even after deducting what foreigners owned inside its borders. Yet over the past two decades, America has been transformed into the world's largest debtor nation. At the end of 2004, its debts to the rest of the world exceeded its assets by about $2.5 trillion—21 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). This proportion is unmatched by any other major developed economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

1957. Power-Sharing in Iraq

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq's elections on January 30, 2005, were a watershed in the country's history. Still, democracy involves much more than voting. It is about the distribution of political power through institutions and laws that guarantee accountable rule. The real fight for power will be over Iraq's permanent constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1958. The Current State of the Japanese Economy

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

1959. Human Capital, R and Competition in Macroeconomic Analysis

Author:
Erik Canton, Bert Minne, Ate Nieuwenhuis, Bert Smid, and Mark van der Steeg
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Long-run per capita economic growth is driven by productivity growth. Major determinants of productivity are investments in education and research, and the intensity of competition on product markets. While these ideas have been incorporated into modern growth theories and tested in empirical analyses, they have not yet found their way to applied macroeconomic models used to forecast economic developments. In this paper, we discuss various options to include human capital, R and product market competition in a macroeconomic framework. We also study how policy can affect the decisions to build human capital or to perform research, and how competition policy impacts on macroeconomic outcomes. We finally sketch how these mechanisms can be implemented into the large models used at the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Netherlands

1960. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate

Author:
Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe