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  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: Confidence-building is a process aimed at increasing security and stability amongst and within nation states. It begins with the recognition of each state's legitimate claim to security and proceeds on the principle of equality of all states involved. Confidence, ultimately, is a matter of perception: transparency and inclusiveness are thus key elements in the building process.
  • Topic: Security, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Dennis C. Blair, Robert L. Gallucci, John M. Shalikashvili, John J. Hamre, Sam Nunn, Paula Scalingi, Richard E. Combs, Janne E. Nolan, Henry G. Chiles, Theodore S. Gold, John D. Holum, Richard C. Macke, Joerg H. Menzel
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: The changing nature of technology and the proliferation of advanced commercialized technology are causing a transformation in the nature of threat and security issues and perceptions. The role of technology within the security environment has greatly enhanced the capabilities of both state and non-state actors. Concurrently, the use of technology has increased the vulnerabilities of states to the point where actors with a minimal amount of resources, such as transnational groups or terrorist organizations, can inflict significant harm on their victims. Although these actors are not capable of attacking the United States or its allies head-on, they may be able to exploit technology or use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to present the United States or its allies with asymmetric threats and attacks. As a consequence, the traditional objectives and methods surrounding arms control and threat reduction must be adapted to in incorporate these new threats and to inject some certainty into an uncertain situation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper is introduced by an analysis of the concept of region, followed by an application of this analytical framework to the Persian Gulf region. Several problems in this region are identified, including a seemingly open-ended arms race and a significant risk of war. As a possible remedy to these problems, the author proposes a policy of Common Security, intended to satisfy the legitimate security problems of all states in the region. As a consequence, he recommends efforts to ensure the strictly defensive nature of the military postures of regional states, to be implemented unilaterally as well as by means of arms control negotiations and regulations of the international arms trade. The paper concludes with a Postscript on the Iraqi crisis of 1997/98.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Persia
  • Author: Pal Dunay
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The story of post-World War 2 European integration had started before integration theory gained popularity. One has to bear in mind, however, that the idea of European integration was launched with modest objectives in the 1950s. Except for some visionary statesmen, like Jean Monnet and some others, both the subject matters to be covered by integration and the geographical scope was limited. Six countries aimed at establishing a free trade zone and not much else was on their "plate" when they signed the Rome Treaty on 25 March 1957.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: John Lewis Gaddis
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The single most striking feature of the post-Cold War environment is the diffusion, not the disappearance, of threats. The half-century extending from 1941 to 1991 was, for the United States, one in which threats were both focused and obvious. From the time of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor until the final collapse of the Soviet Union exactly fifty years later, we knew who our enemies were, or at least might be. As a consequence, we abandoned the isolationism that had characterized most of our history in favor of an unaccustomed but - as it turned out - highly effective internationalism.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William I. Hitchcock
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Ever since the end of the Cold War, analysts have engaged in long discussions about what sort of international order would replace it. Though these discussions have ranged widely in their assessments, they usually took as their starting point a common assumption: that the Cold War order and the basic structure of international relations it represented, was over and done for. From 1989 until about 1995, this assessment seemed accurate: the alliance was falling apart, war broke out in Europe, the western economies were in a tailspin, and the delicate architecture that bound Germany to the states of Western Europe seemed to be in jeopardy, overburdened by the arrival of a united, powerful Germany. Whatever order we had, it didn't seem like anything we had seen before.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Yuri Nazarkin
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The starting point for this paper is the National Security Blueprint of the Russian Federation approved by Presidential Decree No. 1300 dated 17 December 1997. As the Blueprint itself clarifies, it is "a political document reflecting the aggregate of officially accepted views regarding goals and state strategy in the sphere of ensuring the security of the individual, society and the state from external and internal threats of a political, economic, social, military, man-made (technogennyy), ecological, information or other nature, in the light of existing resources and potential." It is a conceptual document of a general nature which is intended to be the basis for the elaboration of specific programmes and organisational documents in the sphere of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Fred Tanner
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The dynamics of European security has become considerably more difficult to comprehend in recent years. This is due primarily to two sets of developments. First an "amorphous threat-free post-Cold War security setting" has replaced the distinct Alliance-wide threat from the Soviet Union. Second, new risks and threats have increasingly affected European security from regions immediately adjoining Western Europe. Conflicts and notorious instability loom in the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, including North Africa and the Middle East. As a consequence, security cooperation in Europe currently struggles to cope with these risks of non-military nature and ambiguous threat scenarios from the "out-of-area".
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: William C. Wohlforth
  • Publication Date: 08-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The most important security threat Russia faces, and the main threat it poses to the rest of the world, is its own implosion. If traditional security has to do with the manipulation and managment of the use of military force by states, then Russia's major contemporary problems must be understood under the "new security" rubric. Because the world has never before had to deal with the breakdown of a nuclear superpower, the security challenges Russia presents are certainly novel. But if "new security" is supposed to encompass problems that are transnational in nature and challenge state-centric analysis, then it too does not capture today's Russian question. For at the root of Russia's security problems is the absence of an effective government. To be sure, all of these problems are made more complicated by globalization. Many of them would continue to pester world politics even if Moscow had a capable government. But the root of these problems and the reason they present such great potential dangers is the absence of a capable state in Russia.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe
  • Author: Thomas Risse, Sarah Mendelson, Neil Fligstein, Jan Kubik, Jeffrey T. Checkel, Consuelo Cruz, Kathleen McNamara, Sheri Berman, Frank Dobbin, Mark Blyth, Ken Pollack, George Steinmetz, Daniel Philpott, Gideon Rose, Martha Finnemore, Kathryn Skikkink, Marie Gottschalk, John Kurt Jacobsen, Anna Seleny
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: The last decade or so has witnessed a resurgence in scholarship employing ideational and cultural factors in the analysis of political life. This scholarship has addressed political phenomena across a variety of national and international settings, with studies of European politics being particularly well represented. For example, the work of scholars like Peter Hall (1993), Peter Katzenstein (1996), Ronald Inglehart (1997), Robert Putnam (1994) and Daniel Jonah Goldhagen (1995) has improved our understandings of European polities, societies and economies. Yet despite a recent rise in interest, ideational and cultural explanations still meet with skepticism in many quarters of the discipline. Some scholars doubt whether non-material factors like ideas or culture have independent causal effects, and others, who accept that such factors might matter, despair of devising viable ways of analyzing their impact on political life.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Democratization, Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nationalism, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, France, Latin America
  • Author: Rebecca Johnson, Fraser Cameron, Alberto Navarro, Thierry Tardy, Sophia Clement, Glenys Kinnock, Tom Spencer, John Palmer, Joao de Deus Pinheiro, Christian Kudlich, Paolo Foresti, Hubert Heiss, Peter Ricketts, Elie Marcuse, Johannes Swoboda, Patricia Chilton, Maj Theorin, Stelios Stavrides, Thomas Eckert, Karen Smith, Krister Bringeus, Alexandra Laignel-Lavastine, Ognyan Minchev, Janos Vandor, Eric Remacle, Pauline Neville-Jones, Vasilij Likhachev, Peter Truscott, Jannis Sakellariou, Jesus Nunez, Claire Spencer, Birchara Khader, Alain Gresh, Lotte Leicht, Tim Hancock, David Nyheim, Francisco Rey, Bronwyn Brady, Geraldine O'Callaghan, Peter Saveiys, Brian Wood, Kiflemariam Gebrewold, Bernd Hemingway, Alyson J. K. Bailes
  • Publication Date: 09-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Security Information Service
  • Abstract: In his opening remarks as Chair of the conference, Tom Spencer, Chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, congratulated the organisers on their excellent timing. The European Union was now in a phase of 'pragmatic' evolution of CFSP and he believed the next nine months presented opportunities for progress.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Erik Melander
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Studies Association
  • Abstract: This paper presents a simple and straightforward model of the security dilemma in settings in which the parties lack secure second–strike capabilities with weapons of mass destruction. The model includes first–strike advantages and incomplete information as to the antagonist's preference ordering. Imperfect information is used to simulate mutual fear of surprise attack.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Author: Gerald M. Steinberg
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
  • Abstract: Since the beginning of the atomic age in 1945, the possession and deployment of nuclear weapons has become the dominant factor in the international system. Those countries that acquired nuclear weapons have become (or maintained their status as) primary world powers, but as the number of such countries grew, the potential for the use of nuclear weapons also increased. In the early 1960s, President Kennedy warned that unless immediate and significant action was taken, within a decade there would be as many as 20 nuclear powers. The process of proliferation was seen as one of the most dangerous and destabilizing aspects of the nuclear era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India
  • Author: Charles Tilly
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
  • Abstract: November 1830 brought London to one of its greatest nineteenth-century peaks of visible, vigorous, and often violent popular contention. When King William IV rode in state through Westminster from St. James to the opening of Parliament on 2 November, people who gathered along the streets cheered the king but jeered prime minister Wellington. Onlookers roared “Down with the New Police! No martial law!” (MC [ Morning Chronicle] 3 November 1830). Near Parliament, two people waved tricolor flags, ten or a dozen men wore tricolor cockades, and members of the crowd cried out “No police” or “Vote by ballot” (LT [ Timesof London], 3 November 1830).
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United Kingdom, Europe, London
  • Author: T.V. Paul
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
  • Abstract: In this paper, I explore the impact of globalization on one of the fundamental functions of nation-states—national security. Contrary to the polar positions of the proponents and the opponents of globalization, I argue that national security still remains a core function of the nation-state, but the extent of security behavior varies depending on the particular situations of states. Largely under the influence of systemic changes propelled by the end of the Cold War, rapid technological changes in both the civilian and military spheres, and the resurgence of the American hegemonic power, the nature of security competition has altered somewhat, but it is premature to bury the nation-state or its role as the key provider of national security.
  • Topic: Security, Globalization, Government
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: David Satterthwaite
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: In considering how the Istanbul Declaration on Human Settlements and the Habitat Agenda, the two key documents agreed upon at the Habitat II Conference, deal with poverty (and with other important issues, such as sustainable development1), it is easy to point to a lack of precision in some of the language used, the repetition, and the tendency toward long lists of "problems" with little consideration of their linkages (and often their underlying causes). But this might also be an inevitable result of any document that had to be endorsed by representatives of so many different governments. Where the wording on some controversial issue appears unclear or imprecise, this may be because any greater clarity or precision prevented agreement by some representative of a government or some group of countries, such as the Group of 77 or the European Union.
  • Topic: Security, Industrial Policy, Poverty, United Nations
  • Author: William H. Lewis, Edward Marks
  • Publication Date: 06-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: So declared Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali in 1994. Indeed, peacekeeping emerged in the post-Cold War period as the "most prominent U.N. activity." The organization was freed of the shackles placed upon it by superpower rivalry, that heretofore had rendered U.N. machinery inoperative in coping with local crises and was suddenly becoming "the center of international efforts to deal with unresolved problems of the past decades as well as the array of present and future issues." Between 1988 and 1993, more than a dozen new peacekeeping operations were launched, involving more than 70,000 military and civilian personnel for field operations, at an annual cost to the United Nations in excess of $3 billion.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, International Organization
  • Author: David C. Gompert
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: China's emergence begs a fresh look at power in world affairs—more precisely, at how the spread of freedom and the integration of the global economy, due to the information revolution, are affecting the nature, concentration, and purpose of power. Perhaps such a look could improve the odds of responding wisely to China's rise.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Soviet Union
  • Author: Greg Hansen
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
  • Abstract: Humanitarian action in the Caucasus is shaped by the political, social, and security contexts of the region which, in many ways, constitute a case study in the lasting legacies of forced migration and social engineering. Without discounting the historical underpinnings of conflict that often date back several centuries, fears of persecution and deeply-rooted feelings of injustice are contemporary sources of tension and have been overlaid and complicated in the past decade by profound upheaval in the economic, social, and political spheres. The collapse of the Soviet system left the economies of the region in tatters.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: The momentum for a comprehensive global ban on anti-personnel landmines is growing rapidly, and 1997 is a particularly decisive year. Africa is the most heavily mined continent, and African governments and non-governmental landmine campaigns are taking an increasingly prominent role in the global effort. The South African and Mozambican governments both announced comprehensive bans in February 1997, just as the 4th International NGO Conference on Landmines was convening in Maputo, Mozambique. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is being urged to quickly declare Southern Africa a mine-free zone, and non-governmental campaigns are gathering steam in many other African countries.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Andrew Krepinevich
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Paul Giarra
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Dr. LESLIE GELB (President, Council on Foreign Relations): Welcome to today's program on the United States and China: Strategic Partners or Adversaries? My name is Les Gelb. I'm President of the Council on Foreign Relations. And the Council, along with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, has put together this panel because we think it's dealing with one of the most important, if not the most important, foreign policy question facing the United States. These Policy Impact Panels, as we call them, are designed to do two things. One, try to establish facts in a very complicated situation, because often we spend a lot of time wondering what the facts are or if they can be established. The second purpose is to lay out the policy alternatives, to give us a sense of what we can do about the problems or the facts.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Ms. ELLEN FUTTER (President, American Museum of Natural History): Welcome to a panel discussion on 21st Century Surprises and Threats at the Council on Foreign Relations. I'm Ellen Futter, president of the American Museum of Natural History and moderator for this panel.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Rodney W. Jones, Michael Nacht, Sergei Rogov, Kenneth Sr. Meyers, Steve Pifer, Nikolai Sokov, Alexei Arbatov
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: In his introductory remarks, Jones pointed out that key Russian interests in the terms of START II, which the United States shared and helped address in the early 1990s -- the denuclearization of Ukraine and the decoupling of Russian strategic forces from dependence on missile production plants in Ukraine -- faded into the background after START I entered into force and Ukraine acceded to the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state in December 1994. Russian criticism of START II thereafter focused on U.S. missile defense developments that could affect the ABM Treaty, on the heavy costs to Russia of implementing reductions, and on the unequal U.S. and Russian reconstitution potential under START II ceilings. By 1996, reactions to NATO expansion had become a further obstacle to START II ratification in Moscow.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Ukraine
  • Author: Brad Roberts, Richard Speier, Leonard Spector, James Steinberg, Hank Chiles, Rüdiger Hartmann, Harald Müller, Leonard Weiss, Ben Sanders, Valery Tsepkalo, Shai Feldman, Phebe Marr, Riaz Kokhar, Virginia Foran, Dennis Gormley, Michael Moodie, Gennady Pshakin, Wendy Frieman, Shah. Prakash, Munir Akram, Michael Krepon, Alexei Arbatov
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: It is a great pleasure to welcome you to this conference on "Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Enhancing the Tools of the Trade." Each year, preparing the agenda for this meeting and preparing my opening remarks, provides me the opportunity to survey our field, to take stock of recent accomplishments and set backs, and to anticipate the challenges ahead. In many respects the news in our field has been good. Since we met last, in February 1996: The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty has been opened for signature. The South-East Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone has entered into force for the regional parties, and the African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone has been opened for signature. The safeguards system of the International Atomic Energy Agency has been upgraded and the way opened for further enhancements, under the second part of the 93+2 program. In the area of export controls, multilateral regimes, including the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, have added several new members and refined their rules... and China has strengthened its non-proliferation commitments by pledging not to assist unsafeguarded nuclear installations. In addition, there have been no new stories of significant leaks of nuclear materials from Russia or the other Soviet successor states, and U.S. cooperative programs to enhance security over such materials have gained considerable momentum. Reinforcing the norm of non-proliferation, the two nuclear superpowers continue to dismantle nuclear weapons and strategic missiles, and there are reasonable prospects for further reductions under the pending START II treaty and an anticipated START III accord. Looking at the threshold states... Pakistan is continuing its freeze on the production of fissile material, although Israel and India are apparently adding to their plutonium stockpiles. The North Korean nuclear weapons effort appears to remain frozen, as the result of the October 1994 Agreed Framework understanding with the United States. Finally, Iran's nuclear weapons program, according to recent testimony by U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Director John Holum, has not progressed in the past two years, while Iraq's nuclear activities are being suppressed by UNSCOM, and Libya's nuclear program appears to be languishing.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Africa, Russia, United States, Iran
  • Author: Geoffrey E. Forden
  • Publication Date: 09-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: Future regional conflicts will almost certainly involve politically less stable nations or other regional actors using theater ballistic missiles armed with either nuclear, biological, or chemical warheads. The United States Air Force is attempting to deal with this threat by developing the Airborne Laser (ABL) with the goal of shooting down missiles while they are still under power and before they can release submunitions possibly containing highly toxic biological agents. This paper presents the results of an analysis of this system. It is based solely on information found in the open literature and using the basic physics and engineering involved in transmitting intense laser beams through the atmosphere. The ABL's potential capabilities and possible theaters of operation are discussed at a non-technical level.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Xiangli Sun
  • Publication Date: 06-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on the impact of a comprehensive test ban on China's nuclear program and security policy. After a general review of China's nuclear doctrine and development, the study analyzes the relationship between China's nuclear strategy and its desire for testing, and explores the reasons China decided to join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. By comparing the maturity of the nuclear programs of the nuclear states and the degree of their preparations for a cessation of nuclear tests, this paper concludes that a comprehensive test ban would place greater constraints on China's nuclear program than on those of the others. Efforts such as a deeper reduction of the nuclear arsenals of the principal nuclear powers, a no-first-use commitment by all nuclear states, and the adherence to the ABM treaty by its signatories would be critical to reducing China's concerns. The progress of international arms control negotiations in the above directions would further encourage China to make even greater contributions in the field of global arms control in the post–comprehensive test ban era.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Dr. Renata Dwan, Dr. Andrew Cottey
  • Publication Date: 11-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: In 1997-98 the Institute for EastWest Studies (IEWS) is running two projects on means for strengthening cooperation in Europe. The 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe' is a series of meetings funded by the European Union's PHARE/TACIS Democracy Programme. Ten meetings and workshops will examine the diverse range of security problems facing the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and possible cooperative solutions to these problems. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate). Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including (but not limited to) governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives. IEWS is joined in organizing this Strategy Group series by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
  • Topic: Security, Development, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Maryland
  • Author: Bjorn Møller
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper features a general introduction to the concept of non-offensive defence (NOD) with a special emphasis on the offence/defence distinction and criteria of 'defensive sufficiency'. It is concluded with an assessment of the the post-Cold War relevance of NOD for various regions around the world.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The author argues that NATO membership is worth much less than assumed by the potential new members, hence that it should also cost less than demanded by NATO. Even though an enlargement of NATO is thus not particularly desirable, it is probably going to happen rather soon. Unless accompanied by various measures to ensure Russia of NATO's peaceful intentions, however, this enlargement will be viewed as a hostile move by Moscow, especially by the 'Eurasian' groupings. Eventually, Russia may take reciprocal steps that would negate whatever immediate security gains could be achieved through NATO membership. It is thus in the best interest of both present and future members of NATO to 'sweeten the pill' by taking Russian security concerns into account. A number of suggestions are made to this effect.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Moscow
  • Author: Pawel Wieczorek, Katarzyna Zukrowska
  • Publication Date: 03-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The public opinion polls show that decisive majority of Poles support Polish entrance to the NATO (80%) and the European Union (66%). This support derives mainly - as can be supposed - from association of the membership in the above mentioned institutions with priviliges linked with this status, what silently is accompanied by rather low financial consequences of integration. Awareness of real financial burdens tied up with integration can be considered as one of the basic arguments in support of preparing a reliable balance of widely understood benefits and commitments which are connected with the Polish membership in NATO and the EU.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Jonathan Kirshner
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Cornell University Peace Studies Program
  • Abstract: In contemporary International Relations theory, there exists a sharp distinction between international political economy and security studies. This is largely a false distinction, however, a product of peculiar circumstances associated with the cold war, and one which is becoming increasingly anachronistic in the post-cold war era. In order to understand international relations in this era, a re-integration of the discipline is necessary.
  • Topic: Security, Cold War, Globalization, Political Economy
  • Author: Norrin Ripsman
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
  • Abstract: Unlike the comparative political economy literature, the literature on foreign security policy treats democracies as a coherent category of states, focusing on their commonalities rather than their differences. Both classical and contemporary theorists of foreign security policy have emphasized that all democratic states--states that are characterized by popular sovereignty, where the ultimate source of authority resides within the people as a whole -- share certain constitutional, procedural and normative features which affect the nature and content of their foreign security policies in similar ways. Using this logic, traditional Realists have argued that public involvement in the policy process makes democracies slow to react to international threats, reluctant to spend on defense, incapable of secrecy and war-averse; consequently, they conclude that democracies are at a disadvantage in international politics, where balance-of-power policies are necessary. Liberals, on the other hand, argue that democracies enjoy certain advantages at international bargaining, devote more aggregate resources to implementing their foreign and security policies, and are less likely than non-democratic states to have their policies subverted to serve the particular interests of their leaders, private interest groups or foreign countries. Moreover, as democratic peace theorists have recently argued, shared political norms and common political procedures prevent democracies from waging war against other democracies.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France
  • Author: Yoji Akashi
  • Publication Date: 08-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper presents the history of APEC in terms of the different goals and fears of the participants and their perceptions of each others' agendas. The author contrasts the Western approach, as exemplified by the US push to institutionalize APEC and introduce binding, formal agreements, with the 'Asian way,' which emphasizes consensus, consultation, and flexibility. By reaching a better understanding of why various key players acted as they did in the past, the author seeks to provide a guide to what should and should not be expected regarding the breadth, specificity, and enforcement mechanisms of future regionwide trade agreements in the Pacific Rim. Ministers of trade and foreign affairs from twelve nations of the Pacific Rim gathered in Canberra in November 1989 to discuss trade liberalization and closer regional cooperation in such specific areas as investment, technology transfer, and manpower training and to plan a new organization that they hoped would shape the future of the world's most dynamic economic region, embracing 1.9 billion people whose combined economies accounted for 24% of world output.
  • Topic: Security, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Robert Chamberlain, Alexandra Cousteau, Nathan Ruff
  • Publication Date: 04-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Abstract: With the end of the Cold War, the United States military and intelligence communities have been searching for new enemies and new roles. The demise of the Soviet Union presented an opportunity to revisit traditional conceptions of security and consider new missions such as heightened counter-terrorist activities and protection of US firms against economic espionage. In this project, special attention has been given to the importance of environmental change. The exploration of linkages between environmental change and security has developed into a complex debate focused on two fundamental and interrelated questions: Is environmental change a "traditional" security threat? In any case, what role is best played by the military and intelligence communities?
  • Topic: Security, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: David E. Johnson
  • Publication Date: 07-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On November 30, 1995, Secretary of Defense William J. Perry testified before the House International Relations and National Security committees on the commitment of U.S. ground forces to the Former Yugoslavia. The commitment, crafted in Dayton, Ohio, had been avoided for some 4 years. Perry carefully discussed the mission, rules of engagement, and exit strategy for U.S. forces.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Yugoslavia
  • Author: Simon V. Mayall
  • Publication Date: 01-1997
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At the end of the Cold War every country was forced to reexamine the fundamental assumptions that had formed their security policies for the last 45 years. Among the "victors" of the Cold War, few countries were faced with a more disparate set of new circumstances than Turkey. Unlike the United States and Western Europe, "victory" for Turkey had a very ambivalent quality. Almost overnight Turkey moved from being the buttressing flank of one strategic region, to the epicenter of a new one.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Turkey
  • Author: Salih Booker
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Africa Policy Information Center
  • Abstract: Recent Congressional action to significantly cut aid to Africa is only one sign among many of a trend to reduce U.S. involvement on the continent. How much further Africa is marginalized in the U.S. will ultimately depend on the ability of Africa's multiple constituencies to reverse this trend. Nevertheless, events on the continent are likely to compel a greater commitment of resources than U.S. policymakers currently contemplate. And engagement at any level needs to be based on clear identification of U.S. interests in Africa and well-defined criteria for establishing priorities.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, Michael H. Armacost
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia-Pacific Research Center
  • Abstract: Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Michael E. Mandelbaum, Richard C. Holbrooke
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: Good evening. Welcome to the second or the third of our Great Debates, it depends on how you're counting. The first formal one was about six weeks ago when Madeleine Albright, our new Secretary of State designate, and Jeane Kirkpatrick debated about the United Nations. Before that we had a trial run with Bob Ellsworth, one of Senator Dole's closest friends and advisors, and Tom Donilon, the chief of staff of the State Department.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Alexander Pikayev, Alexei Arbatov, Richard Speier, Rodney W. Jones, John Pike, Michael Nacht, Linton Brooks, Stephen Cambone, Seth Carus, Robert Einhorn, Ronald Lehman II, McCarthy Tim, Yuri Nazarkin, Keith Payne, Henry Sokolski, Mikhail Streltsov
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The first panel focused on the U.S. and Russian stakes in strategic arms control, the prospects for START II ratification in Russia, the status of START III issues, and the possibilities for cooperative approaches to the issues of strategic offense-defense interaction. The Russian panelists, Ambassadors Yuri Nazarkin and Mikhail Streltsov, and State Duma member Alexei Arbatov, explained Russia's START II reservations, steps in the ratification process, and expected implementation problems in eliminating Russia's multiple warhead (MIRVed) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On balance, they agreed that START II serves Russia's basic interests, in lower levels of strategic arms, eventual economic savings, and political and military parity with the United States. They acknowledged that the ball is now in Russia's court, and ventured that parliament's approval probably would occur eventually.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Daniel N. Nelson, Andrei S. Markovits, Thomas Banchoff, Patricia A. Davis, Christian Deubner, Lily Gardner Feldman, JoEllyn Murillo Fountain, Stefan Immerfall, Michael Kreile, Carl Lankowski, Barbara Lippert, Susanne Peters, Elke Thiel, Wolfgang Wessels
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the continuity in German policy in Europe across the 1990 divide. Although the collapse of the Soviet bloc and reunification transformed the context of German foreign policy, its fundamental direction remained unchanged. The new Germany, like the old, made solidarity with the western allies the cornerstone of its policy in Europe. Chancellor Helmut Kohl did address new policy challenges in the East. But he made stronger western institutions, and a deeper European Union in particular, his top priorities. Neorealism and neoliberalism, this paper argues, cannot adequately explain the strong western orientation of the Federal Republic in the early 1990s. The constellation of power and institutions at the international level left German leaders with different ways to combine association with the West and engagement in the East. In order to explain the priority accorded solidarity with the West, it is necessary to bring in the foreign policy priorities espoused by Kohl and the views of history and its lessons that informed them.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Richard Whitman
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
  • Abstract: The Treaty on European Union (TEU, or 'Maastricht Treaty'), which came into force on 1 November 1993, established a 'three pillar' structure for the new European Union. Pillar one consists of the European Communities - the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC); the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC); and the European Community (EC). Pillars Two and Three were introduced by the TEU and consist of, respectively, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and co-operation in Home and Judicial Affairs (HJA).
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bjørn Moller
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Wonderful though it would be, in the real world it is not always possible to combine whatever is desirable and valuable. The present author holds (at least) two things to possess these qualities, namely a defensive restructuring of the armed forces and an expanded role for the United Nations. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze whether these two desiderata are possible to combine, or whether any incorrectable incompatibilities necessitate a choice between the two. The diagram below illustrates some of the possible inherent dilemmas in the form of a hierarchy of values, with an indication of logical (dotted lines) and causal (arrows) connections.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Alexander A. Sergounin
  • Publication Date: 07-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Pertti Joenniemi
  • Publication Date: 06-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Traditionally regarded as a fairly stable configuration, Norden has in recent years become one of the more uncertain cases on the European agenda. Obviously, it cannot remain unaffected once a new and different logic sets in and drastically reshapes the political landscape also in the northern part of Europe. The range of options is quite broad. Norden might establish itself as a central acronym or, on the contrary, develop into one of the more problematic configurations with a rather bleak future.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Wolfgang Biermann, Martin Vadset
  • Publication Date: 04-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: UN Peacekeeping after the Cold War shows that options of what the international community can achieve by intervening into or after civil war-like conflicts are in reality more limited than political or moral desires may demand. Finding out the criteria of the 'practicability' and feasibility of UN mandates is a challenging task for research as well as for political and military decision-makers. The Danish Norwegian Research Project on UN Peacekeeping (DANORP) has considered the peacekeepers themselves as a best resource to answer the question of 'practicability' of mandates they are expected to implement, and to identify political and operational "secrets of success" or "reasons for failure".
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Rudolf Joo
  • Publication Date: 02-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Political control of armed forces is not a problem that has confronted only liberal democracies of the twentieth century. Even less is it an issue challenging only the democratizing societies of Central and Eastern Europe in the l990s. The crucial dilemma -- that a separate armed body established in order to protect a society might pose a threat to that same society -- goes back to antiquity. The ever-relevant question of who guards the guards was a central issue in Plato's dialogue The Republic, written about 2,500 years ago. Plato, in presenting what he considered to be the right order of society, described the military state as a deviation. Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire were both confronted with the dilemma `sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?' The question has remained the same over the centuries, but as armed forces and society have changed, the nature of the problem has also changed.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Greece
  • Author: Richard L. Bernal, Stephen E. Lamar
  • Publication Date: 12-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: In 1986, as part of a major overhaul of the U.S. tax code, the U.S. Congress made a valuable source of private sector financing available for Caribbean economic development. Less than 10 years later, as part of a series of measures to balance the U.S. federal budget and enact a package of tax cuts for small businesses, the Congress approved legislation to terminate this source of funds for the Caribbean.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Caribbean
  • Author: Roman Popadiuk
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: On June 1, 1996, the last strategic missiles were shipped from Ukraine to Russia, bringing to an end a contentious issue that had marred the early stages of U.S.-Ukraine relations. In welcoming this development, President Clinton stated, “I applaud the Ukrainian government for its historic contribution in reducing the nuclear threat .... We remain committed to supporting Ukraine through its ambitious and far-sighted reforms and to working with Ukraine and our European partners to promote Ukraine's integration into the European community.”
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Europe, Johannesburg
  • Author: Ivelaw L. Griffith
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: This study assesses the Caribbean security landscape on the eve of the fast-approaching new century with a view to considering what the future portends in the security arena. Engaging in even guarded prospection during this period of history is particularly difficult, but also exciting, partly because of dramatic changes that the world began undergoing during the 1980s. These changes make scholars and statesmen approach the new century with a combined sense of expectancy and apprehension. The expectancy stems from the anticipated benefits of the end of the Cold War, among other things; the apprehension is driven by them may unknowns that tile dynamics of changing international relations hold for the future. This is true for the Caribbean as it is for other regions of the world, and it holds true for security as it does for other issue areas.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Caribbean
  • Author: Donna Lee Van Cott
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The cycle of Indian rebellion and government repression that characterized the first centuries of contact between European and Amerindian peoples cannot yet be consigned to the history books. The eruption of an armed movement in southern Mexico, comprised primarily of destitute Maya Indians, as well as smaller demonstrations of resistance in Brazil, Ecuador, and elsewhere speaks eloquently to this fact. While the majority of conflicts between the estimated 40 million indigenous peoples in Latin America and the societies in which they live are now played out in the political arena, security issues continue to generate violent interethnic conflict. Since the Conquest, the interests of indigenous communities usually have conflicted with national governments' security policies. These include a dimension explicitly intended to control the autonomous tendencies of indigenous communities, suppress Indian political organizing, and erase the independent identity of Indian nations.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Barry D. Watts
  • Publication Date: 10-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the end of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, there has been growing discussion of the possibility that technological advances in the means of combat would produce ftmdamental changes in how future wars will be fought. A number of observers have suggested that the nature of war itself would be transformed. Some proponents of this view have gone so far as to predict that these changes would include great reductions in, if not the outright elimination of, the various impediments to timely and effective action in war for which the Prussian theorist and soldier Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831) introduced the term "friction." Friction in war, of course, has a long historical lineage. It predates Clausewitz by centuries and has remained a stubbornly recurring factor in combat outcomes right down to the 1991 Gulf War. In looking to the future, a seminal question is whether Clausewitzian friction would succumb to the changes in leading-edge warfare that may lie ahead, or whether such impediments reflect more enduring aspects of war that technology can but marginally affect. It is this question that the present essay will examine.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War, Government, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Soviet Union, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Ralph A. Cossa
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, Northeast Asia
  • Author: Alan L. Gropman
  • Publication Date: 08-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: At a dinner during the Teheran Conference in December 1943, Joseph Stalin praised United States manufacturing: I want to tell you from the Russian point of view, what the President and the United States have done to win the war. The most important things in this war are machines. The United States has proven that it can turn out from 8,000 to 10,000 airplanes per month. Russia can only turn out, at most. 3,000 airplanes a month .... The United States, therefore, is a country of machines. Without the use of those machines, through Lend-Lease, we would lose this war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Vietnam
  • Author: Steven Philip Kramer, Irene Kyriakopoulos
  • Publication Date: 03-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: When political observers talk about European security, they invariably refer to the challenges Western Europe faces on its peripheries from a renationalized Russia, conflicts in the Balkans, and Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa. Rarely do they imagine that the greatest dangers to the new Europe may come from within, that the kind of stability Europe has enjoyed since World War II could be merely a passing chapter in history, not a transcendence of history. Without suggesting that there is necessarily a worst case ending, this study will argue that there is indeed a series of crises converging on post-Cold War Europe that threaten its stability and that need to be addressed by European policy makers and taken into account by Americans.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, War
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, North Africa
  • Author: Mark Roberts
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Middle East, France
  • Author: M.E. Ahrari, James Beal
  • Publication Date: 01-1996
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: The dismantlement of the Soviet Union also brought about the liberation of six Central Asian Muslim republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (figure 1). Although Azerbaijan is part of the Caucasus region, it is included in this study because: The independence of that country, like that of the Central Asian states, was brought about as a result of the dismantlement of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan, like its Central Asian counterparts, is a Muslim state, and faces similar politico-economic problems. Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia involving Nagorno-Karabkh reminds one of a number of conflicts in the Central Asian region. These include a seething ethnic conflict in Kazakhstan (involving the Khazaks and the Slavs), the ongoing civil war in Tajikistan "along ethnic, national, and religious lines (since the Russian forces are "also involved in this civil war), and the ethnic conflict in the Fargana valley that cuts across the borders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Like the economies of its Central Asian neighbors, the Azeri economy was largely dependent on the economy of the former Soviet Union. Consequently, like its other neighbors, Azerbaijan is also busy establishing economic self-sufficiency, along with strengthening its religious political, linguistic, and ethnic identities.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Religion
  • Political Geography: Central Asia, Middle East, Soviet Union
  • Author: John Leslie, Paul M. Lubeck, Georgi Derlugian, Elaine Thomas, Maria Todorova, Philip G. Roeder, Andrew Bell-Flailkoff, Nirvikar Singh, Daniel Chirot, Beverly Crawford, Ronnie Lipschutz
  • Publication Date: 03-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for German and European Studies, University of California, Berkeley
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the relationship between the rise of Islamic radicalism and changes in the global political and economic order. The author suggests that the major independent variable explaining whether Islamic radicalism can take power in a given state is the degree to which the state is able to articulate and then successfully pursue a national agenda. The success of such an agenda is in turn dependent upon the position of the state in the context of the global order. Thus, the author makes the claim that the creation of an integrated, global market exacerbates rather than suppresses Islamic radicalism because it interferes with the ability of any given state to pursue its own agenda. Economic liberalization weakens state authority, exposes its citizens to global competition and creates social and economic dislocation, providing an opportunity for Islamic radicals to position themselves as an alternative to further global integration.
  • Topic: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Nationalism, Sovereignty
  • Author: Thomas Chronopoulos
  • Publication Date: 12-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: In the period between 1758 and 1834 repertoires of contention in Britain changed from parochial, particular, and bifurcated to cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous. In other words, eighteenth century actions "that included a good deal of ceremonial, street theater, deployment of strong visual symbols, and destruction of symbolically charged objects" through the course of time lost their relative predominance and instead "demonstrations, strikes, rallies, public meetings, and similar forms of public interaction came to prevail during the nineteenth century." These new routines for the eighteenth century contentious events are the ones that ordinary people in the United States and Western Europe still to this date principally employ to make claims. This conclusion merges from a systematic study of more than 8,000 contentious gatherings, in Southern England (1758-1820) and Great Britain as a whole (1828-1834).
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, England
  • Author: Yagil Levy
  • Publication Date: 12-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Studies of Social Change
  • Abstract: Observation of state-military relations in Israel reveals an apparent paradox: Within a period of about seventy years, the more the militarization of Israeli society and politics gradually increased, the more politicians were successful in institutionalizing effective control over the Israel Defence Forces (IDF, and the pre-state organizations). Militarization passed through three main stages: (1) accepting the use of force as a legitimate political instrument during the pre-state period (1920-1948), subsequent to confrontation between pacifism and activism; (2) giving this instrument priority over political-diplomatic means in the state's first years up to the point in which (3) military discursive patterns gradually dominated political discourse after the 1967 War. At the same time, political control over the IDF was tightened, going from the inculcation of the principle of the armed forces' subordination to the political level during the pre-state period to the construction of arrangements working to restrain the military leverage for autonomous action.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel
  • Author: Stephen M. Saideman
  • Publication Date: 11-1995
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California
  • Abstract: Is secession contagious? If so, can it be contained or quarantined to limit its spread? These two questions must be addressed to understand the challenges posed by ethnic divisions within and between states today. The end of ideological competition between the United States and the Soviet Union has not ushered in an era of global peace, but instead a period characterized by ethnic conflicts within many states. The coincidence of the disintegrations of the Soviet, Yugoslav, and Czechoslovak federations suggests that secession does spread with potentially nasty consequences.
  • Topic: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Politics, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: United States, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 02-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Not even one child's death from firearms is acceptable or inevitable. What will we do about it? We gathered at The Carter Center, 26 people from various fields and disciplines, all concerned with protecting and lengthening the lives of children, to seek a path forward amid the carnage of our children caused by firearms. What could be done to stem the hemorrhage in the streets? Could we do enough to make a difference? Could we do anything at all? Author Norman Cousins has said that the greatest t the United States has given the world is to demonstrate that it is possible to plan a rational future. It is easy to lose hope when faced with a situation as horrible as thousands of children dying from firearms. Yet even here, we affirm that it is possible to plan a rational future. Our gathering was framed around a modest focus on: 1. Children, not all people; 2. Firearms, not all violence; 3. Initiatives that could make an urgent and significant impact in the next five to 10 years; 4. Things we could work on immediately.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 12-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: The end of the Cold War has had a major impact on global trade in conventional armaments, just as it has on most facets of national security and defense. The nature of global demand for arms has shifted from the context of rivalry between superpowers and their associated client states to providing for national defense within the context of regional security needs. While these changes have led to a decline in total global demand for arms, countries continue to seek to acquire substantial amounts of increasingly sophisticated weapons. Ironically, in many respects, the post-Cold War world is more unstable than the Cold War era, and is characterized by increased violence, by increased proliferation of military technology, and by the potential for these trends to continue. In this context, while the nature of the political-military issues that the U.S. and friendly nations now confront has changed, arms exports will continue to be a means of advancing U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Keith Krause, Ken Epps, Bill Weston, David Mutimer
  • Publication Date: 01-1994
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: The global proliferation of conventional weapons has earned a prominent place in the post-Cold War foreign policy agenda. The human and material toll of the relatively unconstrained flow of conventional weapons is large: the vast majority of the 20 million war-related deaths since 1945 have been in conflicts fought exclusively with conventional weapons, and the thirty-nine major ongoing conflicts in 1994 have been fueled by arms, especially light weapons, that have been amassed in the world's arsenals. Conventional proliferation is perhaps the last remaining important issue on the arms control and non-proliferation agenda that has not been comprehensively addressed.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Canada
  • Author: Sam G. Amoo
  • Publication Date: 02-1991
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: The conflict in Chad is a microcosm of the widespread instability in Africa. Since its independence in 1960, peace, security, and stability have eluded Chad just as they have been scarce in most of Africa. Since 1960, 18 full-fledged civil wars have been fought in Africa. Eleven genocides and politicides occurred in Africa between 1960 and the late 1980s, compared with 24 elsewhere in the world. During the decade of the 1980s alone, it is estimated that conflict and violence claimed over 3 million lives. At the beginning of 1990, 43 percent of the global population of refugees were African, most of them fleeing from political violence. The mediation and resolution of conflicts should indeed be the primary preoccupation of the continent's leadership.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Peace Studies, Population
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 05-1990
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: During the entire electoral process, the political system in Nicaragua gradually opened so that by election day, the major political parties acknowledged that they had an adequate opportunity to explain their positions to the Nicaraguan people. The Council of Freely-Elected Heads of Government shared the conclusion of the parties: the Nicaraguan people were free to vote their preferences in a fair election, and the official results reflected the collective will of the nation.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, Politics
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Central America