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  • Author: Henri J. Barkey
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The consequences of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq will doubtless be debated for years to come. One result, however, is already clear: the long suppressed nationalist aspirations of the Kurdish people now dispersed across four states—Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria—have been aroused, perhaps irrevocably, by the war. Already in Iraq, Kurdish regions, which have benefited from Saddam Hussein's overthrow, have consolidated themselves into a federal region. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is a reality and a force for further Kurdish empowerment as it seeks to incorporate other Kurdish-majority areas and the oil-rich Kirkuk province in particular into its domain. The KRG's existence and demands have already alarmed all of Iraq's neighbors and the Baghdad government. The issues are far from being settled. If ignored or badly handled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to cause considerable instability and violence in Iraq and beyond at a particularly delicate time.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Armed Struggle
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Kurdistan
  • Author: Sharon Squassoni
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: After several decades of disappointing growth, nuclear energy seems poised for a comeback. Talk of a "nuclear renaissance" includes perhaps a doubling or tripling of nuclear capacity by 2050, spreading nuclear power to new markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and developing new kinds of reactors and fuel-reprocessing techniques. But the reality of nuclear energy's future is more complicated. Without major changes in government policies and aggressive financial support, nuclear power is actually likely to account for a declining percentage of global electricity generation.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Frédéric Grare
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The purpose of the present report is to analyze the intelligence agencies' role in Pakistan's political life through a better understanding of the agencies' objectives and mechanisms. Because Pakistan's civilian governments have been victims of the agencies' manipulation in the past, the new and very fragile government cannot ignore the decisive role of the intelligence agencies in Pakistani politics if it wants to counter the direct and more subtle manifestations of military control. The domestic political role of intelligence agencies is always a combination of three elements: militarization, comprehensive political surveillance, and state terror. The intensity and relative importance of each component varies over time and according to the specific situations in each country, but all three are always present. Terror as it applies to individuals or groups can be carried out by proxies and is intermittent, but it remains an essential element of the system. An intelligence agency's reputation for ruthlessness is often as important as its actual efficiency.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Terrorism, Military Strategy
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, South Asia
  • Author: Robert Jellinek
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: This paper has its origins in the observation that government responses to the global financial crisis are as much political phenomena as they are economic. The current global financial crisis, among its many consequences, has on a very high level shaken up the world political order. And while the crisis is international in origin—its roots lie in the breadth and the degree of the dispersal of risk associated with mortgagebacked securities, as well as the growing imbalance in international capital flows—its resolution is necessarily being carried out first and foremost on a domestic level. This is not least of all because, in the decade since the Asian financial crises, states have begun to play a dramatically increased role in international finance in relation to both multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and traditional private actors. In an age where global economic ties are integral to domestic economies and where states themselves are becoming some of the biggest players in international capital markets, a state's global financial standing will more than ever determine its political clout on the world stage. With states acting as market makers, lenders of last resort, and regulators of last resort, the key to understanding the future of individual states in the global economic order can be found only by analyzing states' domestic and foreign policy decisions within the context of the specific constraints facing those states at home and abroad.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Russia, Asia
  • Author: Sandra Polaski, Dirk Willenbockel, Eduardo Zepeda, Scott McDonald, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreir, Janine Berg, Karen Thierfelder
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Brazil's economic growth rate has been positive for the past eight years, after two decades of setbacks and extreme volatility. The country has once again been growing—for a sustained period—at rates that exceed its population growth, with average gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita averaging 1.63 percent from 2000 to 2007. This exceeds average per capita GDP growth of 0.83 percent from 1980 to 1989 and 0.28 percent from 1990 to 1999, although it still falls well short of the 5.92 percent per capita growth rate from 1970 to 1979.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Governance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America
  • Author: Ashley J. Tellis
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The run-up to the announcement of President Obama's new "Af-Pak" strategy provoked a flurry of "new solutions" to the conflict. Promoting reconciliation with the Taliban is one idea that has reappeared—even in the administration's own White Paper on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan. While this notion would rightly have been considered ridiculous a few years ago, many in Europe and the United States obviously believe that stabilizing Afghanistan may require just that. In fact, it would be the worst approach at this time—and it is destined to fail so long as key Taliban constituents are convinced that military victory in Afghanistan is inevitable.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Taliban
  • Author: Alejandro Foxley
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: No country has proved immune to the devastating effects of the current global financial crisis. But the middle-income countries of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia, which previously had achieved significant progress—economically and socially—have shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable. The crisis has highlighted important lessons for these countries, which inhabit a twilight zone between the developed and developing worlds?and those that aspire to join their ranks—as they rebuild.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe, East Asia, Latin America
  • Author: Henri J. Barkey
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: In principle, Turkey would welcome the global elimination of nuclear weapons. For the current government, the possession of nuclear weapons by other states is a factor that, indirectly at least, reduces Turkey's regional (if not global) aspirations and power. However, in the medium term, it remains deeply ambivalent on the future of nuclear weapons and its own plans regarding nuclear energy and weapons development.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran, Turkey, Germany
  • Author: Thomas Carothers
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: President Obama and his foreign policy team are only just starting to confront the challenge of reformulating U.S. democracy promotion policy. Crucial to any such effort will be revitalizing democracy assistance, a domain that has expanded greatly over the past 25 years but risks not adapting adequately to meet the challenges of the new landscape of democratic stagnation in the world. As the largest source of U.S. democracy assistance, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is a natural starting point for such a process of revitalization.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Democratization, International Cooperation, Reform
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Eduardo Zepeda, Mohamed Chemingui, Hedi Bchir, Christopher Onyango, Bernadette Wanjala
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: As the first decade of the twenty- first century comes to an end, Kenya's economy is being confronted with a number of challenges that call for carefully crafted, well- informed policies. After fifteen years of stagnation—when the country witnessed zero increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and investment at levels below 20 percent of GDP—it has risen to become one of Africa's fast growing economies (see Arbache and Page 2008). Between 2004 and 2007, Kenya's economy showed signs of revitalization, and the average annual growth rate climbed above 5 percent, allowing Kenyans to finally enjoy an increase in GDP per capita. However, the political turmoil of 2008 slowed growth, and the current global financial and economic crisis has made it difficult to return to high growth rates. Thus, Kenya now faces shrinking export markets, rising protectionist measures worldwide, and meager financial flows.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa