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  • Author: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In this paper Kirkegaard presents new micro-level data consisting of individual greenfield investment projects and mergers and acquisitions as a source for detailed analysis of services sector cross-border investment flows among the Asian Development Bank (ADB) regional membership in Asia. The new transactional foreign direct investment (FDI) data are methodologically distinct from traditional BPM5-compliant FDI data but found to yield generally comparable aggregates, when compared with the latest available International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from the Comprehensive Direct Investment Survey for the ADB regional membership. The services sectors are found to receive considerably larger amounts of foreign investment, when compared with the Asian region's manufacturing and raw materials sectors. OECD countries account for roughly three-quarters of total recorded inward services sector FDI of about $2 trillion, relatively evenly split between the United States, the EU-27, and regional OECD-level-income countries. The presence of sizable regional "upward flowing" services sector investments into OECD-level-income economies is verified. Kirkegaard draws preliminary policy conclusions based on the new transactional FDI data results concerning prospects for regional services sector liberalization, threshold income levels for inward services sector FDI, upward-flowing regional services FDI, and preferred modes of services sector investments.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, Asia
  • Author: C. Randall Henning
  • Publication Date: 09-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand
  • Author: Murray Hiebert, Ernest Z. Bower, David Pumphrey, Gregory B. Poling, Molly A. Walton
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Southeast Asia will be the next big growth engine in Asia. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, with a population of 525 million and a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion (when measured by purchasing power parity), are expected to grow almost 6 percent between now and 2030, according to the Asian Development Bank. For years, they have been eclipsed by China and India, but now their combined GDP is catching up with India and they could overtake Japan in less than two decades. For U.S. firms, these five members of the Association of South East Asian Nations—hereafter the ASEAN-5—are a trade, energy, and environment story.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Ed Gerwin
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Third Way
  • Abstract: By 2020, the Asia-Pacific's $10 trillion import market will present vast opportunities to support U.S. economic growth and wider prosperity for America's Middle Class. But, over the past decade, the U.S. share of key Asia-Pacific markets has actually plummeted–by over 40%. Retaking America's share of these rapidly expanding economies—beginning with trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)—could pay huge dividends: over a half trillion dollars in additional U.S. exports, supporting millions of good American jobs.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Asia
  • Author: Philip Abbott, Finn Tarp
  • Publication Date: 03-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Vietnam has been among the most successful East Asian economies, especially in weathering the external shocks of recent globalization crises—the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2008-09 great recession, financial crisis and collapse of global trade. Its success contradicts its characterization as an example of export-led growth and highlights the role of the state, particularly in maintaining and influencing investment. Examination of economic performance and policy responses shows rising dependence on foreign finance around each crisis, and actions by the government to counteract that dependence and bolster the domestic economy while continuing to restructure the economy toward greater emphasis on the private sector. Growth, employment and poverty alleviation have been maintained at the expense of renewed inflation, larger budget deficits, and currency depreciation. The 'stop-go' nature of present …
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Gordon S. Smith
  • Publication Date: 05-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: This paper provides a brief history of the evolution of the Group of Seven (G7) from its origins in the aftermath of the 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of exchange rates and the oil crisis in 1973. It then discusses Russia's participation at summits after the fall of the Berlin Wall, formally joining the group in 1997, thus becoming the Group of Eight (G8). The paper gives a concise account of the formation of the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors in the late 1990s, in the wake of financial crises in Asia and Latin America, which was elevated to a leaders' summit forum at the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. The paper wraps up with a discussion of the differences in the G8 and G20 models, concluding that the G20 process is still the best option for meeting the challenges of complex global governance issues.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Governance
  • Political Geography: Russia, Asia, Latin America
  • Author: Edwin M. Truman
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have become a prominent feature of the international financial landscape. They are sufficiently diverse in their origins, structures, and objectives that generalizations are perilous. However, legitimate concerns have been raised in home and host countries about the management, behavior, and interactions of these funds. Many of those concerns can be addressed via increased accountability and transparency. The Santiago Principles are a good start in doing so, but Edwin M. Truman's SWF scoreboard points to areas where these principles can be improved. Meanwhile, SWF compliance must be further increased. At the same time, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) effort to address concerns from the host-country side has not resulted in the erection of new barriers to that form of cross-border investment, but the OECD failed to reverse the creeping financial protectionism of the past decade. Because of their size and the source of their funding, some Asian funds are different. As a result, they will be held to a higher standard of accountability and transparency even as their government owners press for more openness to cross-border investment.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Roger Bate
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Increasing competition generally decreases product prices. But in the case of pharmaceuticals, this is only beneficial if competitor products are therapeutically equivalent (bioequivalent). One measure of quality control is a consistently made product, examined in detail in this paper. A comprehensive study of drug samples in African and Asian countries--assessed for variability by spectrometer--suggests that registered products perform notably better than unregistered products. As all of the sampled drugs are used to treat potentially lethal infections, this product variability (particularly of unregistered drugs) could prove detrimental to public health. Future analysis will assess how significant these spectral differences are in terms of drug quality and hence how important changes in policy should be to limit quality variability.
  • Topic: Emerging Markets, Health, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, Asia
  • Author: Daniel Markey, Paul B. Stares, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Scott A. Snyder, John W. Vessey, Joshua Kurlantzick
  • Publication Date: 08-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: If past experience is any guide, the United States and China will find themselves embroiled in a serious crisis at some point in the future. Such crises have occurred with some regularity in recent years, and often with little or no warning. Relatively recent examples include the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in 2001, as well as several minor naval skirmishes since then. The ensuing tension has typically dissipated without major or lasting harm to U.S.-China relations. With China's rise as a global power, however, the next major crisis is likely to be freighted with greater significance for the relationship than in previous instances. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing, not to mention their respective publics, have become more sensitive to each other's moves and intentions as the balance of power has shifted in recent years. As anxieties and uncertainties have grown, the level of mutual trust has inevitably diminished. How the two countries manage a future crisis or string of crises, therefore, could have profound and prolonged consequences for the U.S.-China relationship. Given the importance of this relationship to not only the future evolution of the Asia-Pacific region but also to the management of a host of international challenges, the stakes could not be higher.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Hugo Dobson
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
  • Abstract: As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Governance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, Australia
  • Author: Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, Fan Zhai
  • Publication Date: 10-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: East-West Center
  • Abstract: Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, Asia-Pacific
  • Author: Marcus Noland
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: East-West Center
  • Abstract: South Korea is arguably the premier development success story of the last half century. For 47 years starting in 1963, the economy averaged 7 percent real growth annually, and experienced only two years of economic contraction: 1980 after the second oil shock and the assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and 1998 at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. At the start of that period South Korea had a per capita income lower than that of Mozambique or Bolivia; today it is richer than Spain or New Zealand, and was the first Asian and first non-G7 country to host a summit of the G20, the unofficial steering committee of the world economy.
  • Topic: Demographics, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia, South Korea, Spain, Mozambique, New Zealand, Bolivia
  • Author: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Edwin M. Truman
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: This paper addresses two central questions for Asia and the world: (1) What is the purpose of Asian regional policy coordination going forward? (2) Will Asian regional policy coordination substitute or complement global policy coordination? The paper examines the potential coverage and content of such policy coordination, what is meant by Asia in this context, and how Asia fits in with global policy coordination processes. Truman addresses three related aspects of Asian regional policy coordination: macroeconomic policies, reserve management, and crisis management. He concludes that while the countries in the Asian region have not completely exploited the scope for regional policy coordination, more ambitious efforts focused on close integration are not likely to bear fruit, in particular, if they are conceived and promoted under the banner of Asian exceptionalism. These conclusions are based on two main considerations: First, Asian economies differ, and will continue to differ, sufficiently in size and stage of development such that it is difficult to conceive of a successful voluntary blending of their interests. Second, the central lesson of the global financial crisis and its current European coda is that global economic and financial integration has advanced sufficiently that countries can run but they cannot hide individually or in sub-global groups of countries.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia
  • Author: C. Randall Henning, Mohsin S. Khan
  • Publication Date: 10-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Currently, Asia's influence in global financial governance is not consistent with its weight in the world economy. This paper examines the role of Asia in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group of Twenty (G-20). It looks in particular at how the relationship between East Asian countries and the IMF has evolved since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and outlines how Asian regional arrangements for crisis financing and economic surveillance could constructively interact with the IMF in the future. It also considers ways to enhance the effectiveness of Asian countries in the G-20 process.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia
  • Author: John Whalley, Chunding Li, Jing Wang
  • Publication Date: 07-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: The term "mega deal" has been widely used in relation to two large prospective trade deals between the United States and Europe – the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — and in Asia and the Pacific — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This paper starts by exploring a possible description of trade mega deals by making an inventory of mega deals in place, under discussion or negotiation, and deals yet to be considered under different criteria. This paper also calculates the trade volume coverage and trade barrier coverage for potential mega deals, and the results show the potential impact of mega deals on trade and growth performance is large.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Using a world trade model with India subdivided into states, the paper examines how regional disparities are affected by domestic inter-state trade as well as international trade. According to the analysis, international liberalisation promotes decentralisation and convergence, not divergence, so trade is not to blame for India's growing regional disparities. High economic growth within India makes domestic markets more important and the geographical effect of this is opposite to that of globalisation. This may counterbalance the geographical impact of international liberalisation and explain why recent changes in geographical clustering in India are limited. The empirical results are consistent with this. They also indicate that Indian services expansion is largely driven by increases in domestic demand due to growth, and that domestic market integration is essential for India's manufacturing sector. We argue that for larger nations, the domestic inter-regional trade is important and India should have a trade policy that addresses domestic as well as international market integration.
  • Topic: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Hideaki Asahi
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The genesis of this essay was a series of conversations over the Internet with a long-time friend who made a whirlwind trip to Japan at the end of 2009. At the time, I felt compelled to write by his suggestion that the concept of multilateralism might well be understood and become more prevalent among not only policy-makers, but also the general public, and that this would serve the interests of Japan in changing international circumstances. Subsequently, I was requested to draft an essay for contribution to a forthcoming annual bulletin of the graduate course I was about to leave at the conclusion of tenure. The bulletin struck me as an opportune medium for the dissemination of an essay on multilateralism. With this backdrop in mind, it should be understood that the essay was neither a piece of academic research nor a policy advocacy piece targeted at the ordinary readers of public opinion journals. It is rather an attempt to weave together vivid memories and piece together remembered fragments of conversations held over the past three decades, an undertaking I have long considered worthwhile. The contents of this essay intentionally steered clear of stories concerning my friendship with this person already reported by well-known journalists in Japan. Instead, the essay is intended to examine the core elements of what he stands for, known as multilateralism, which may be paraphrased as liberal internationalism in the literature of international relations. Accordingly, I hope the essay will serve as a personal memorandum. I also hope that it will help the readers envisage how multilateralism works and deepen their understanding of what it is all about by connecting the concept of multilateralism to concrete images and offering food for thought.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Linda Jakobson, Dean Knox
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: In contemporary China a cacophony of voices urges decision makers to pursue a variety of foreign policies. The continuing pluralization of Chinese society and China's growing interdependence with the international order have made decision-making processes more complex. These changes, taking place at a time when China's cooperation is increasingly vital to the resolution of key global issues, present a challenge to foreign policy makers. Effective engagement of China in the international arena requires an understanding of the interplay within and between not only the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Chinese Government and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) but also new foreign policy actors on the margins of the traditional power structure. These new actors include resource companies, financial institutions, local governments, research organizations, the media and netizens.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Alejandro Foxley
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: While middle-income countries have pursued regional trade agreements since the 1960s, these ties are becoming more important as the global economic crisis curtails demand from the United States and other major markets. With the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks stalled, regional trade agreements (RTAs) offer an alternative approach to increase trade, spur stronger economic growth, and lower unemployment rates in participating countries.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, Latin America
  • Author: Brad W. Setser, Arpana Pandey
  • Publication Date: 01-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: China reported $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of 2008. This is by far the largest stockpile of foreign exchange in the world: China holds roughly two times more reserves than Japan, and four times more than either Russia or Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China's true foreign port- folio exceeds its disclosed foreign exchange reserves. At the end of December, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)—part of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) managed close to $2.1 trillion: $1.95 trillion in formal reserves and between $108 and $158 billion in “other foreign assets.” China's state banks and the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund, together manage another $250 billion or so. This puts China's total holdings of foreign assets at over $2.3 trillion. That is over 50 percent of China's gross domestic product (GDP), or roughly $2,000 per Chinese inhabitant.
  • Topic: International Relations, Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Vanessa Rossi
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Chatham House
  • Abstract: Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. This report reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia, Tokyo
  • Author: Chen Taifeng
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The simultaneous emergence of rapidly developing RTAs and a strengthened and more encompassing MTS attracts worldwide attention. “Complementary Competition” is the very essence of the RTA/MTS relationship. Both compete complementarily in trade liberalization and economic integration initiatives. Since joining the WTO, China has pursued a “three-pronged” economic and trade development strategy of pushing forward regional trade cooperation and bilateral trade cooperation while enhancing multilateral trade and cooperation. After joining the WTO, China has basically developed a spatial landscape of “focusing on Asia-Pacific and reaching out globally” with regard to its participation in the RTA.By participating in RTAs, China can obtain the same benefits of market openness and trade and investment liberalization as other countries do. It is important for China not to act too hastily, but to push forward regional cooperation step by step from adjacent to remote regions and level by level, from easy to difficult regions. Asia is especially important to China, and Asian economic cooperation is the foundation of China's RTA policy.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: James J. Przystup
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for National Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Andrei Panibratov, Kalman Kalotay
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
  • Abstract: Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Leo Abruzzese, Editorial Director for North America, discusses the latest EIU forecast for the world. Forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve in many countries in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the contraction in global GDP is over. The improvement has triggered hopes of an imminent and sustained global economic recovery. But does this signal the start of a genuine strong recovery, or is it a false dawn, to be followed by months—or even years—of anemic growth? What is the outlook for the US, Canada, and Asia, as well as the major emerging markets, over the next couple of years? And what are the downside risks to this outlook?
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, Asia, North America
  • Author: Robert A. Manning, Evan A. Feigenbaum
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: President Barack Obama heads to Singapore in November for the 2009 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) summit. It will be his first foray into the arcane world of Asian multilateralism. And if his administration adopts a new approach, it could yet fashion a more sustainable role for the United States in a changing Asia.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Geny Piotti
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
  • Abstract: This paper attempts to explain why internationalization processes to China are growing despite the significant difficulties that foreign direct investments into China encounter. The answer to this question can be found in the processes of decision-making on internationalization at the company level and how these affect management practices in Chinese subsidiaries. The argument I put forward in this paper is that for the small and medium-sized enterprises the study focuses on, the decisions concerning investment in China are mainly the product of structural and legitimation pressure. Structural pressure can encourage cognitive mechanisms and behavioral consequences similar to those occurring when individuals (and organizations) cope with threat. Legitimation pressure can foster wishful thinking, which pushes actors to believe that desired options are good despite evidence to the contrary. These pressures have an impact on how well companies are prepared when they internationalize and can particularly affect some crucial management practices, leading to inefficiencies and problems in subsidiaries.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Europe, Asia, Germany
  • Author: Robert Jellinek
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: This paper has its origins in the observation that government responses to the global financial crisis are as much political phenomena as they are economic. The current global financial crisis, among its many consequences, has on a very high level shaken up the world political order. And while the crisis is international in origin—its roots lie in the breadth and the degree of the dispersal of risk associated with mortgagebacked securities, as well as the growing imbalance in international capital flows—its resolution is necessarily being carried out first and foremost on a domestic level. This is not least of all because, in the decade since the Asian financial crises, states have begun to play a dramatically increased role in international finance in relation to both multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and traditional private actors. In an age where global economic ties are integral to domestic economies and where states themselves are becoming some of the biggest players in international capital markets, a state's global financial standing will more than ever determine its political clout on the world stage. With states acting as market makers, lenders of last resort, and regulators of last resort, the key to understanding the future of individual states in the global economic order can be found only by analyzing states' domestic and foreign policy decisions within the context of the specific constraints facing those states at home and abroad.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Russia, Asia
  • Author: Katherine Morton
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: One of the greatest dilemmas of the early 21st century is how to satisfy the demands of densely populated states in the context of a global environmental crisis. As the world's biggest polluter and prominent emerging world power, China is at the centre of the global debate. Worsening pollution trends, increasing resource scarcity, and widespread ecological degradation have serious implications for China's ongoing modernisation drive. The spillover effects across borders also pose a challenge to its relations with the outside world. Although China's per capita CO2 emissions are low relative to the United States and Australia, they already exceed the world average. In 2007, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest aggregate emitter.
  • Topic: Environment, Government, International Trade and Finance, Reform
  • Political Geography: China, Asia, Australia
  • Author: Stephen Grenville
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is unwelcome.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia
  • Author: Warwick McKibbin, Tingsong Jiang
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: China, Asia, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Jeffrey Henderson
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
  • Topic: Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Oil
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Jarko Fidrmuc, Ivana Bátorová
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Yuqing Xing
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand
  • Author: Yuefen Li, Bin Zhang
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, India, Asia
  • Author: Alessandra Guariglia, Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Using a panel of 139 countries over the period 1992-2003, we analyse the links between export productivity, economic growth and financial development indicators. We then investigate whether the links observed in China, India and Brazil systematically differ from those observed in other countries in the sample. We find that both GDP per capita and investment generally exert a positive and significant effect on export productivity. Except for Brazil, financial development is not an important determinant of export productivity. Moreover, except for Brazil, export productivity plays a positive effect on growth, and so does financial development for both China and Brazil, but not for India. Finally, in both India and Brazil, FDI is negatively associated with growth.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, India, Asia, Brazil, South America
  • Author: Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in the China, Brazil, India and South Africa, and in other regional groupings. In doing so, the investigation calculates a time varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The findings indicate that export productivity is mainly determined by real income and human capital endowments. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in the export productivity and specialization patterns of countries with comparable per capita income levels. For instance, China's export productivity and implied export sophistication is in line with that of countries with higher per capita incomes, including some OECD industrial economies.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, South America
  • Author: John Henley, Stefan Kratzsch, Tamer Tandogan, Mithat Külür
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The burgeoning literature on outward foreign direct investment from emerging markets has largely focused on analysing the motives of investors as reported by parent companies. This paper, instead, focuses on firm-level investments originating from China, India or South Africa in fifteen host countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis is based on a sub-set of firms drawn from the overall sample of 1,216 foreign-owned firms participating in the UNIDO Africa Foreign Investor Survey, carried out in 2005. The sample of investments originating from China, India and South Africa is analysed in terms of firm characteristics, past and forecast performance in SSA over three years and management's perception of ongoing business conditions. Comparisons are made with foreign investors from the North. The paper concludes that while investors in SSA from the three countries are primarily using their investment to target specific markets, they are largely operating in different sub-sectors. While there appear to be specific features that firms from a given country of origin share, there are no obvious operating-level features they all share apart from market seeking.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa
  • Author: Rhys Jenkins
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, Genfu Feng
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Silvia Nenci
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
  • Topic: International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, South America
  • Author: Guanghua Wan, Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
  • Publication Date: 02-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, Thailand
  • Author: John Ravenhill
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Australian National University Department of International Relations
  • Abstract: In the decade since the financial crises, East Asia has become the most active site in the world for the negotiation of preferential trade agreements. Region-wide functional collaboration now goes substantially beyond trade, however, ranging across such areas as financial cooperation, disaster management, transborder crime, tourism, energy and environmental issues.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Israel, Asia
  • Author: Kenji E. Kushida
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Despite global leadership by Japanese firms in sectors such as automobiles, precision equipment, and various high tech components, Japanese firms in the ICT sector have followed a persistent pattern of leading without followers. While leading the domestic market to ever-high levels of sophistication, sometimes beyond that of most other advanced industrial countries, Japanese ICT companies have retreated dramatically from international markets. Moreover, in technology after technology, Japanese ICT firms invest heavily, undertake extensive R, and for network technologies, deploy infrastructure rapidly, only to find that global technological trajectories shift in a different direction. While globally successful Japanese industries were able to use their domestic market as a springboard into international markets, Japan's ICT sector became decoupled from global markets, trapping Japanese firms in the domestic market.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Japan, Israel, Asia
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: Coming in the midst of a very heated U.S. presidential election campaign, where the U.S. is faced with numerous foreign policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region and at a critical juncture in Islam's relationship with the rest of the world, the Asia Society convened over 50 Asian and American leaders at a very opportune time in Bali, Indonesia from April 3-6, 2008. Delegates discussed the characteristics of Islam in Asian countries with multiethnic or multireligious populations like India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. They also suggested ways of tackling radicalism and extremism by alleviating poverty, improving education, and reforming prisons and rehabilitation Centres, to name a few. During the second half of the conference, delegates engaged in a conversation about the evolving U.S. role in Asia. Contemporary affairs like the protests in Myanmar and Tibet, engagement with North Korea, and the impact of the Iraq war on U.S. foreign policy towards Asia were analyzed in light of the coming presidential election. Asian leaders were invited to give advice to the new U.S. president. Finally, young leaders from the Asia Pacific region shared their thoughts on what kinds of leadership and values are needed in the future.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Post Colonialism, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, South Asia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Asia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Min Gong, Wenpu Li
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: To understand China's trade relations with the US, Japan, and South Korea, we estimate a vector autoregressive model (VAR) model to investigate the trade interactions among these four countries using data from the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2005. We find substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-induced indirect trade from Japan and Korea to the US through China, and between Japan and Korea through China. These indirect trade flows lead to increases in China's trade deficit with Japan and Korea as well as China's trade surplus with the US. The indirect trade flows through China also indicate the importance of China's role as a trade bridge. From the viewpoint of world trade growth, as a trade bridge, China contributes to the stable growth of the regional and world economies. However, China's role as a trade bridge may negatively affect its long-run economic growth.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, Korea
  • Author: Richard J. Anderson
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The European Union 27 currently rely on Russia for almost 38% of their imported natural gas; this dependency will become significantly greater if European states implement their currently formulated energy policies. With plans to phase out nuclear power in several European countries, the EU goal to reduce coal consumption thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and the depletion of domestic sources of gas, reliance on Russia will rise to 50 to 60% of all gas imports within the next two decades if different energy policies are not adopted. The EU and greater Europe will soon find themselves in an extremely dangerous position due to the everincreasing dependence on Russian natural gas. These countries must work together now to produce a coherent diversification strategy.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Albert Keidel
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Governance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Paul Hubbard
  • Publication Date: 09-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: The Chinese government, through the China Exim Bank, is pledging billions of dollars worth of concessional lending to the developing world. More information on these lending practices can be gleaned from Chinese language sources than is readily available in English. However, this material is insufficient to draw more than tentative conclusions about the real nature and scope of China's concessional lending. Over 48 countries have agreements with China for concessional loans. An average loan of US$20-30 million is made available to Chinese exporting firms to develop infrastructure and facilities in developing countries. While these loan sizes are not huge when compared to other aid flows, China's status as the dominant lender of concessional loans amongst some recipients makes this program significant. Finally, it is still not clear if the loans could be considered Official Development Assistance according to the DAC definition.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia