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  • Author: Medin Hege
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper presents a simple new trade theory model with results that contradict those from standard model. A home market effect in domestic sales of manufactured goods is found to co-exist with a reversed home market effect in exports of manufactured goods. In consequence, for a small country the number of manufacturing firms that sell in the domestic market is lower than proportional whereas the number of exporters is higher than proportional to country size. The proportion of firms that export, decreases with relative size of the home market. Empirical support for the latter prediction is found in a cross-sectional dataset on firm level exports for 116 countries.
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Innwon Park
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Both intra - and inter-regional trade agreements are proliferating in East Asia. Deepening regional interdependence through trade and investment, and the necessity for stability and revitalization of the regional economy since the East Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s led the East Asian countries to adopt discriminatory RTAs. Accordingly, East Asian commercial policy stance has shifted from unilateral to bilateral to mega-lateral liberalization. This report attempts to assess the East Asian countries' efforts to liberalize the regional market by cooperating with each other. We investigate (i) why RTAs have been proliferating in East Asia, (ii) what the main characteristics of East Asian RTAs are, (iii) whether the East Asian countries are natural trading partners for each other to enhance welfare gains from RTAs, and (iv) whither East Asian RTAs. From our analysis, we recommend following policy options. First, East Asian RTAs should follow an expansionary RTA path (for example, AFTA and five ASEAN+1 FTAs → RCEP and/or TPP → FTAAP). Second, as we consider the high dependence on external economies through global trade and investment, East Asia needs to cooperate with major external trading partners by forming cross-regional RTAs with the EU and US. Third, in order to enable East Asian economies to take the more desirable expansionary RTA path, harmonizing or simplifying ROO, the cumulation of value contents among the RTA members in East Asia, and enhancing trade facilitation should be a prerequisite considering the complicated web of RTAs, regional production networks, and the consolidation of the FTAAP.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Rich Karl, Magda Rich, P.G. Chengappa
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Despite estimates that the global butterfly trade generates over US$100 million annually in sales of pupae for exhibitions and deadstock for a range of collector and artisanal uses, almost no research has been conducted that unpacks the dynamics of these value chains. This paper remedies this gap by highlighting the governance structure of the value chain, with important implications on the benefits for chain participants, upgrading strategies, sectoral sustainability, and the potential for new market entrants. This research on live butterfly chains reveals the fragility of current modes of economic organization that promote overproduction as threatening the long-term viability for the industry as a whole. The authors propose an alternative governance model based on the use of individually transferrable quotas, or ITQs, as a means of improving the performance of certain butterfly value chains.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Governance
  • Author: Rich Karl, Magda Rich, Ganga Changappa, Babu Raghavan
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In many parts of the developing world, those with physical or mental handicaps are often considered to be a burden on society, with limited to no remunerative activities available in the workforce. Activities such as butterfly farming, which require precision and attention to detail, are potentially relevant for disadvantaged groups as a source of livelihoods. At the same time, such activities can be integrated with community-led conservation efforts as well. We provide a case study of the development of a butterfly garden at the Swastha Centre for Special Education and Rehabilitation in the Kodagu area of Coorg, a region in the state of Karnataka in India through which conservation-based activities are integrated with special education in a manner than builds skills, improves livelihoods, and serves as an important resource for environmental education. Our case demonstrates a scalable means by which butterflies can be used to educate, improve the environment, and offer livelihoods to the disadvantaged in a country where such opportunities are greatly needed.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Environment, Governance
  • Political Geography: India, Karnataka
  • Author: Rich Karl, Magda Rich, P.G. Chengappa, Arun Muniyappa, Yadava C.G, Ganashruthi M.K., Pradeepa Babu B.N., Shubha Y.C.
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Certification programs has been employed in many agricultural products as a means to encourage and communicate compliance with standards associated with various attributes, such as organic, fair-trade, GMO free, and eco-friendly, among others. Such programs further seek to provide added value, through a price premium, to producers and supply chain actors associated with the label. In this paper, we review a number of global labeling and certification programs that could add value for coffee farms in India through the promotion of conservation and environmental protection. We provide results from a survey conducted on a sample of coffee farms in Coorg district, India to assess their awareness and perceptions related towards certified coffee and environmental conservation in general. Survey results illustrate strong positive associations with the environment by coffee planters, particularly among certified and organic producers. However, price premiums for certified and organic coffee are relatively small. While the potential of conservation-oriented certification for coffee in Coorg could be relatively limited outside of a few individual-level niches, branding Coorg more generally as a conservation-oriented region could hold promise, leveraging and personalizing the uniqueness of the natural offerings from Coorg and tapping into burgeoning associations with place and region in India.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Magda Rich, P.G. Chengappa, Arun Muniyappa, Pradeepa Babu B.N., Karl M. Rich, Yadava C.G.
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The Indian coffee sector is at an important transition point, increasingly stuck in the middle between quality and value segments of the market. A potential niche for India is in the development of eco-friendly (green) coffees, leveraging the natural environment and biodiversity present in many regions. In this study, we conducted a value chain assessment of the coffee sector in Coorg, a major production area in India, to identify the potential entry points and constraints to a conservation-oriented strategy of upgrading. The results highlight that coffee value chains in Coorg are fragmented and largely uncoordinated, with innovative upgrading efforts largely individually motivated. This suggests that integrating conservation principles in a broad-based branding strategy could be difficult at the level of the chain without institutional support or the entry of chain champions. On the other hand, integrating conservation as a diversification activity e.g. through the development of butterfly gardens for tourism, could provide a low-cost way of adding value for farmers while promoting good environmental stewardship.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Biosecurity
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Medin Hege
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The new trade theory, which emerged in the early 1980s, emphasised economies of scale and market failures as driving forces behind international trade. As opposed to the earlier theory, which mainly assumed perfect competition, the new trade theory provided a rationale for industrial policy. This article shows how industrial policy targeting specific firms or industries may be socially desirable within the new trade theory framework. Models from new economic geography and the more recent 'new' new trade theory with heterogeneous firms are also discussed. The main focus is put on models with pecuniary externalities.
  • Topic: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Politics
  • Author: Tiberius Barasa, Andvig Jens Chr
  • Publication Date: 07-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The starting point of the paper is the spatial characteristics of slums when it seeks to explain why rulers tend to neglect the welfare of their dwellers: they don't have to. Their economies are fairly closed. While located close to the centers of power, their high population density implies that they cover small space and are easy to cordon off in case of danger. The ease of control from the outside allows rulers to spend less attention to the control of their complex inside. Particularly when a slum is based on shack architecture, the high degree of mutual monitoring among dwellers may cause sharp shifts in the control regime of crime. The emphasis on spatial configurations motivates the focus on one specific slum: Mathare Valley. Paths back to colonial rule are outlined. The paper is stylistically unkempt.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Leonard Seabrooke, Duncan Wigan
  • Publication Date: 08-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This working paper creates a theoretical framework to explain how Global Wealth Chains are created, maintained, and governed. We draw upon different strands of literature, including scholarship in international political economy and economic geography on Global Value Chains, literature on finance and law in institutional economics, and work from economic sociology on network dynamics within markets. This scholarship assists us in highlighting three variables in how Global Wealth Chains are articulated and change according to: (1) the complexity of transactions, (2) regulatory liability and (3) innovation capacities among suppliers of products used in wealth chains. We then differentiate five types of global value chain governance - market, modular, relational, captive, and hierarchy - which range from simple 'off shelf' products shielded from regulators by advantageous international tax laws to highly complex and flexible innovative financial products produced by large financial institutions and corporations. This paper highlights how Global Wealth Chains intersect with value chains and real economies, and provides three brief case studies on offshore shell companies, family property trusts, and global-scale corporate tax avoidance.
  • Topic: Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Governance
  • Author: Armando Chaguaced, Borghild Tønnessen-Krokan
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper attempts to summarize the status of the Cuban reform processes at the end of 2013 (including some elements from early 2014). It is part of a project at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, where we are following both the economic reforms and – in this case – the political implications of economic reforms. The article will take as a point of departure reforms and changes that may be observed in the following areas: agricultural transformations, possible widening space for entrepreneurs, the Mariel Special Development Zone, the new cooperative sector, the emergence of a new dual state-private structure in the economy, a discussion of different Cuban agents of change, considerations about an evolving international context. Towards the end of the paper, we attempt to assess these empirical trends against the backdrop of some theoretical considerations for political transformations, partly with reference to other cases, before the paper draws up three possible scenarios for Cuba towards and even after 2018, when the great generational shift in the Cuban leadership is supposed to take place. This Report also contains an article going more in depth about the deterioration of social services in Cuba, written by the Cuban political scientist Armando Chaguaceda. Since this article is printed in Spanish, a summary in English is included in the present article. The key question behind this paper is whether and to what extent a promotion of economic pluralism is taking place in such a way that it may lead to political pluralism and de-concentration of power, or contrary, whether there will be a re-concentration of both economic and political power in the party, state and military nomenclature.
  • Political Geography: Cuba
  • Author: Rieker Pernille, Tom O. Johnsen
  • Publication Date: 02-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: For nearly 20 years, Norway has contributed financially to less wealthy EU countries. From €120 million (1994–1998) these contributions have reached nearly €1.8 billion for the period 2009–2014. What exactly does Norway get in return? Should the Grants simply be understood as an act of solidarity? Or do the financial contributions serve as a source of soft power providing increased influence in the EU? The objective of this article is not to assess whether the Grants have helped to reduce economic and social disparities, nor to explain why the Grants emerged. We focus on how and to what extent Norway has had and can have political advantage from these contributions, in relations with the EU and the beneficiary states. This article serves as a case-study examining the relation between a policy (the Grants) and soft power.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Power Politics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Christine Mee Lie
  • Publication Date: 07-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper presents a survey of the micro-econometric literature on the effects of R tax credits on firms' innovation activities. The authors focus on one specific aspect that has not received sufficient attention in previous research: the sectoral dimension. Our meta-regression analysis (MRA) sets up a new database collecting a large number of firm-level studies on the effects of R tax credits and investigates the factors that may explain differences in the estimated effects that are reported in the literature. The main result of the MRA analysis is indeed that sectors matter. Micro-econometric studies that have focused on a sub-sample of high-tech industries have on average obtained a smaller estimated effect of R tax credits. The paper proposes a simple framework to investigate why the effects of R tax credits vary across sectors and points out new directions and hypotheses for future research.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Author: Hans-Inge Langø
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to categorize the various approaches,here referred to as schools of thought, to cyber security and identify the sources of their disagreements. Much of the academic and policy debate has revolved around the “revolutionist” and “traditionalist” schools of thought, with debates over cyberwar and the efficacy of strategic information warfare. However, none of the schools offer a systematic approach to understanding the strategic utility of cyberspace. This paper identifies a third, less known approach that is best described as “environmentalist.” The “environmentalist” school's approach to cyber power and analysis of cyberspace as a distinct environment or system offers the best way forward for the field.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, Science and Technology, Communications
  • Author: Hans-Inge Langø
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Hostile actors in cyberspace are considered one of the fastest growing threats to states. Much has been written on the subject, but the available literature remains parochial, lacking a unifying understanding of the environment. This paper proposes a systematic approach to understanding the political utility of cyberspace, specifically the character of compulsory cyber power.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, Political Economy, Science and Technology, Communications, Governance
  • Author: Vegard Bye
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The Cuban society is undergoing deep changes, more than fifty years after the Revolution and the same number of years with a Castro government. The focus of study is mostly on economic reforms. But economic transition also has great impact - gradually manifesting itself - on the entire political system. The direction of these changes is still quite unclear. In this Working Paper, "The Politics of Cuban Transformation - what Space for Authoritarian Withdrawal?", NUPI Research Fellow Vegard Bye analyzes the choice of direction and some scenarios in the political transformation process.
  • Topic: Communism, Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Cuba, Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 08-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This is a conceptual paper that seeks to dig out some of the distinct understandings of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and relate them to basic economic and ethical choices and theories. Most of the discussion is focused on enterprise choice of tax payment in a context where both enterprise production activities as well as their tax payment may be allocated between constituencies where the state of public governance and poverty levels may differ widely. The presentation is non-formal, but mostly stylized and empirical information is mostly presented in the footnotes.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, Political Theory, Governance
  • Author: Karsten Friis
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In a way, one could consider Norway a typical example of a small International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) partner in Afghanistan, with 400 troops at its disposal and responsible for one of the 26 provincial reconstruction teams (PRT). Norway is a signatory to the Atlantic Pact and a staunch North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member. At the same time, the people and the government of Norway — like those in many European countries — share reservations about the extraterritorial use of military force. They consider Norway to be a "peace-nation," a small state without strategic global interests. Norwegian foreign policy favors the multilateral institutional approach, providing stability and predictability through the United Nations (UN). The government of Norway has to balance military needs with civilian demands for humanitarian aid and the support of human rights — in particular women's rights. In Afghanistan, Norwegian civilian aid priorities included the strengthening of Afghan governance capacities, rule of law, education, and rural development.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Norway
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Hamza Kanar
  • Publication Date: 12-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The economic reforms recently implemented in Cuba do not adequately deal with the structural issues that hamper the country's economic development. The paper presents a system dynamics model to investigate Cuba's development process, and a simulation analysis to compare different policy scenarios that may be realized in the future as economic reforms will continue. The results indicate that the most effective development policy would be to combine active public policies to enhance the R sector, on the one hand, and foster the emergence of an efficient private sector that will develop the capital infrastructure of the economy, on the other.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Caribbean
  • Author: Brian D. Perry
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This report is part of a broad study of trade preferences and market conditions between various developing countries and Norway, conducted under the auspices of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Norway's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established in 1971. From 2002 Norway has provided duty and quota free market access (DQF-MA) for all goods from all the 50 least developed countries (LDCs3). In 2005 the results of a review of Norway's GSP were published (Melchior, 20054), which showed that agricultural products from developing countries other than LDCs were still subject to substantial tariffs, and this contrasted dramatically with advantages given to European trading partners. As a result, from 1 January 2008 changes were made to Norway's GSP5. An important adjustment was that 14 low income countries that were not part of the LDC group were included in the provision for duty and quota-free market access (DQFMA). Consequently, 64 low income countries now benefit from DQFMA to Norway for all their goods.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa, Norway, Ethiopia
  • Author: Arne Melchior, Karl M. Rich, Brian D. Perry
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Norway has traditionally operated a rather closed, managed market for beef importsnder WTO-auspices, Norway operates a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for beef that allows the entry of a small amount of product at a relatively low tariff rate, with higher rates of duty imposed on imports over the quota. There are several different TRQs of relevance to boneless beef. The main quota is the WTO quota, which allows for the annual import of 1,084 tons of frozen beef at an in-quota duty rate of NOK 33,60/kg for boneless cuts. Countries with ordinary GSP access receive a 30 percent discount on this duty, so that the in-quota GSP tariff is NOK 23,52/kg. The WTO quota is administered once per year by an auction system – table 6 provides a list of the prices and volumes for the 2011 WTO quota. For imports outside the WTO quota, the duty is 119,01 NOK/kg, with GSP countries paying 10 percent less at NOK 107,11/kg.
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Norway
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Arne Fevolden
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper carries out an empirical analysis of the factors explaining the export performance of firms in the defence sector. We focus on the case of Norway, and make use of two complementary methodologies: the first is based on quantitative firm-level data analysis for the whole population of defence companies, and the second is based on qualitative case study research on the three most important defence export products (weapon stations, ammunition, electronics). Our empirical results highlight the importance of four major success factors for exporting firms: (1) the participation in offset agreements; (2) the ability to focus on their set of core competencies; (3) their R activities and interactions with the public S system; (4) demand opportunities and, relatedly, user-producer interactions.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Science and Technology, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Norway
  • Author: Tiberius Barasa, Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 01-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper presents and analyzes most empirical research about crime and police corruption in Kenya that has been based on vicitimization statistics. It shows the wide variation in outcomes and draws implications of this for the potential use of this approach for police and crime policy. This is used as a background for the researcher's own victimization study which combines this information with a survey of police officers' attitudes and experiences. In a more theoretical section it discuss how officer rotation, crime registration procedures and citizen mobility controls may work when crime policies are considered as a set of collective action games where both police officers and community members are engaged.
  • Topic: Corruption, Crime, Law Enforcement
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Arne Fevolden, Martin Blom
  • Publication Date: 01-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents an agent-based simulation model of the defence industry. The model resembles some of the key characteristics of the European defence sector, and studies how firms in this market will respond to the challenges and opportunities provided by a higher degree of openness and liberalization in the future. The simulation analysis points out that European defence firms will progressively become more efficient, less dependent on public procurement and innovation policy support, and more prone to knowledge sharing and inter-firm collaborations. This firmlevel dynamics will in the long-run lead to an increase in the industry's export propensity and a less concentrated market.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Governance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Martin Blom, Arne Martin Fevolden
  • Publication Date: 05-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defence industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defence industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defence and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defence and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defence and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritise, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.international competitiveness or b) national defence and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defence and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defence and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritise, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Per Botolf Maurseth, Roger Svensson
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: International patenting is increasing in importance. Patents protection is sought in the inventors' homeland but increasingly also in other countries. Globalization, high growth rates in high-tech industries, growing emerging markets and harmonization of patent institutions across countries have stimulated increased international patenting. We use a simple model of international patenting developed by Eaton and Kortum(1996) where the decision to patent in a country depends on country characteristics and the quality of the patented invention. With access to a unique database on Swedish firms' patents and patent behavior we are able to estimate some of these relations and test their validity. Our results indicate that the propensity to apply for international patent protection increases with indicators of the value of the invention and indictors of technological rivalry and market size in the markets where patent applications are submitted.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Intellectual Property/Copyright
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Jose Miguel Natera
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents an empirical analysis of the time series properties of Schumpeterian multiple equilibria models. It considers a panel of 116 countries over the period 1980-2008, and makes use of panel cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests to identify the set of dynamic relationships linking together innovation, absorptive capacity and economic growth in different country clubs. The results provide general support for this class of models and show that absorptive capacity and innovation progressively become more important engines of growth as the development process unfolds over time. Relatedly, the complexity of the economic system (measured by the number of significant Granger causal relationships driving economic growth) increases as we move from the less-developed, to the middle-income and then to the advanced country clubs.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Political Economy
  • Author: Hilde Eliassen Restad
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: James Madison famously stated in 1793: “War is in fact the true nurse of executive aggrandizement.” By this, Madison meant that, when confronted with a grave threat to national security, the instinct of a state is to concentrate power at the very top. This can lead – and has led – to abuse of power. For instance, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's signing of Executive Order 9066 on February 19, 1942 resulted in the forcible internment of Japanese Americans (two thirds of whom were U.S. citizens), an episode widely seen as regrettable later, after history had removed Americans from the anxiety of war. But by no means do we have to look as far back as to World War II. We can note Cold War incidents such as the Iran-Contra scandal (1985–87), when the Reagan administration took it upon itself to bypass Congress – and specific laws – in order to support the controversial Nicaraguan Contras with money acquired by selling arms to Iran.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: United States, Iran
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 08-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Using data for more than 200 countries, split into nine regions, we study world trade in goods during 1970-2010. The largest changes are the declining relative importance of Western Europe, and the increasing role for Asia. The intra-regional trade of Asia grew particularly fast; from 4 to 16% of world trade. Due to growing intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia, world trade became more intra-regional until 1995. Manufacturing trade is more regionalised, whereas commodity trade is more globalised. After 1995, extra-regional trade flows grew faster so there was “globalisation” with trade travelling longer distances and a rising share for commodities. From 2000, smaller trade regions such as Africa and Latin America have increased their shares of world trade; reversing the trend over the 30 preceding years.
  • Topic: Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe, Asia, Western Europe
  • Author: Lenka Filipova
  • Publication Date: 08-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of religious denominations on values and attitudes that are thought to be conducive to economic growth and are usually pronounced in favor of Protestants. The model is based on the same strategy as in (Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales 2002). To isolate the effect of religion from other effects, socio-demographic controls such as gender, age, educational and income level and country fixed effects are included in all regressions. The analysis uses the World Values Survey to investigate twelve attitudes in the overall impact of religious denominations followed by the analysis controlling for the dominant religion of the country. The paper contributes to the research by: (1) including more Muslim countries, which leads to different results from that of (Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales 2002) where Muslims represented mostly minority religion in researched countries; (2) evaluating precisely the differences between Protestants and other religious denominations. The results thus are not dependent on such an unspecified group of people who answered that they do not belong to any religious denomination; (3) including new attitudes like determination or confidence in major companies that are emphasized especially in (Kuran 2011). The results show that neither overall analysis nor analysis with the control for dominant religion proved the hypothesis that Protestants have significantly higher values and attitudes considered advantageous for economic development compared to other religious denominations. Is it because of the changes of values and attitudes over time?
  • Topic: Economics
  • Author: Pernille Rieker
  • Publication Date: 06-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This article analyses the relationship between EU security, integration and associated members, using insights from security studies and the literature on Europeanization. While much recent literature emphasizes either the EU's insignificance as a security actor or its importance as a normative and global actor, I investigate its role as a security actor in its own region, arguing that the EU is primarily a regional security actor. I make two general claims: (1) it is the development of common rules and values in various policy areas that constitutes the basis for the EU as a security actor; (2) it is the successful projection of these rules and values beyond EU borders that will determine the impact of the EU as a security actor. The aim is therefore to show how the EU promotes security and stability through the externalization of rules and values through various processes, association agreements and neighbourhood policies.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents an empirical analysis of the innovative activities of business groups in Latin America. It compares the innovativeness of group-affiliated firms (GAFs) and standalone firms (SAFs), and it investigates how country-specific institutional factors – financial, legal, and labor market institutions – affect the group-innovation relationship. The empirical analysis is based on the most recent wave of the World Bank Enterprise Survey (period 2010-2011), and it focuses on a sample of 6500 manufacturing firms across 20 Latin American countries. The econometric results point out two major conclusions. First, GAFs are more innovative than SAFs: we estimate the innovation propensity of GAFs to be 9% higher than that of SAFs. Secondly, across countries, the innovativeness of GAFs is higher for national economies with a better institutional system than for countries with a less efficient institutional set up.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: M.S. Umesh Babu, Sunil Nautiyal
  • Publication Date: 10-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper provides an overview on biofuel production and its pros and cons in India and elsewhere. The paper also discusses the major issue of whether biofuels are an alternative to fossil fuels or are a competitive for food production. It examines benefits for the rural poor by providing additional income, employment, land value, etc., and the circumstances of the biofuels market and its inputs for GDP growth in India. However, of late, biofuels and their production have failed to address challenges like supply of water and food security, for the growing population in India as well as many other developing countries in the world. This paper highlighted these issues in detail particularly disadvantages of biofuel production.
  • Topic: Security, Environment, Oil, Water, Food
  • Political Geography: India
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper provides a semi-popular exposition of the formulation of public procurement and privatization mechanisms and how they may be influenced by organized crime units. A number of possibilities are outlined using examples from Bulgaria, Italy and Norway.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Crime, Governance, Law Enforcement
  • Political Geography: Europe, Norway, Bulgaria, Italy
  • Author: Taran Fæhn, Brita Bye
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Evidence points to relatively low supply elasticities for workers skilled for research and development (R), which can hamper innovation and growth. Increasing the supply of R skills will expand an economy's innovative capacity. A simultaneous effect of increased education, which is particularly important for small, open economies, is to raise final goods producers' capacity to absorb cross-border knowledge spillovers. In a calibrated endogenous growth model for Norway, we find that increasing the share of highly educated workers has pronounced absorptive capacity effects that partially crowd out R innovation. Both innovative and absorptive capacity expansions contribute to higher growth and welfare.
  • Topic: Development, Education, Human Welfare, Markets, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Karsten Friis, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, Harald Håvoll
  • Publication Date: 11-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: With the apparent lack of progress and success in Afghanistan, counter- insurgency (COIN), both as a theory and practice, is falling out of favor within the political and military establishment in the US. This comes at a time when the US is redirecting its geopolitical focus away from global instability towards the Asia-Pacific and the 'New Great Power Game'.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Australia/Pacific
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Jose Miguel Natera
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Missing data represent an important limitation for cross-country analyses of national systems, growth and development. This paper presents a new cross-country panel dataset with no missing value. We make use of a new method of multiple imputation that has recently been developed by Honaker and King (2010) to deal specifically with time-series cross-section data at the country-level. We apply this method to construct a large dataset containing a great number of indicators measuring six key country-specific dimensions: innovation and technological capabilities, education system and human capital, infrastructures, economic competitiveness, political-institutional factors, and social capital. The CANA panel dataset thus obtained provides a rich and complete set of 41 indicators for 134 countries in the period 1980-2008 (for a total of 3886 country-year observations). The empirical analysis shows the reliability of the dataset and its usefulness for cross-country analyses of national systems, growth and development. The new dataset is publicly available.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government, International Affairs, Infrastructure
  • Author: Morten Skumsrud Andersen
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In the Assyrian empire, boasting about how terrible and ferocious the Assyrian kings and their armies were in war served to install fear in the to-be-conquered populations (Mann 1986: 232-234). But their relations were not only of fear and awe. One event, as retold in the Bible, describes how the Assyrian army approaches the walls of Jerusalem. The people of Jerusalem are on the walls to see and listen. The Assyrian envoy, the Rab-shakeh (a vizier), is negotiating with the He- brew representative, but is asked by his fellow Assyrians not to speak in Hebrew when negotiating. The people on the wall will understand. But that was exactly the purpose. The Assyrians had chosen an envoy that mastered the local language. He 'stood and called out in a loud voice in the language of Judah: “Hear the word of the Great King, the King of Assyria. Thus says the King...Make your peace with me and come out to me; then every one of you will eat of his own vine, and every one of his own fig tree”' (2 Kings 18:31, quoted in Watson 1998: 36). He was reaching out to influence the people, not only talking to the local rulers.
  • Topic: Imperialism, International Affairs, Political Theory
  • Author: Ole Jacob Sending, Morten Skumsrud Andersen
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This report presents the key findings from a study of the role and functioning of the Board of Auditors (BoA), the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) and the Joint Inspection Unit (JIU). It is based on assessment of central policy documents and research papers as well as in-depth interviews with key representatives from these organizations and other stakeholders. The report analyses the functioning, mandate and perceived effectiveness of each of these three core organizations.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, United Nations, International Affairs, Governance
  • Author: Moaaz Elzoughby
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The Egyptian protest movement eventually won a historic victory with the achievement of its main demand, the resignation of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt's presidency. But the seventeen tumultuous days from the start of the demonstrations on 25 January until the president's departure on 11 February were far from straightforward in their course. In this eyewitness report, a researcher who was present during the crucial days when Cairo's Tahrir Square became the centre of the revolt reveals how the social composition and the moods of the movement fluctuated throughout the protest. Nothing was predetermined; even the events that led to the occupation of the square itself had elements of contingency about them. The interplay between a minority of politicised participants and a much larger group of non-political young people from Cairo's neighbourhoods was at the heart of the shifts that took place, which were in turn influenced by the tactics of security forces and the character of official media coverage. These factors, critical to the evolution of the movement and the outcome of the protest, may continue to be important in shaping the aftermath of Egypt's revolt.
  • Topic: Democratization, Insurgency, Political Activism
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Arabia, Egypt
  • Author: Benjamin de Carvalho, Jon Harald Sande Lie, Randi Solhjell
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The United Nations Mission in Eastern Chad and the Central African Republic (MINURCAT) was established to protect civilians and contribute to rule of law and regional peace in the conflict-prone region bordering Darfur. The mission was dismantled towards the end of 2010. This report, based on fieldwork undertaken in Chad in 2009, addresses the situation of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) against refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs) in eastern Chad and difficulties MINURCAT encountered in its response to such violence.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Human Rights, Refugee Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Nations
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Benjamin de Carvalho
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper takes as its starting point the difficulties encountered in implementing policies aimed at fostering local and national ownership in peacekeeping activities. Especially important in this respect are training programmes aimed at sensitizing people working in peacekeeping operations to the inherent difficulties of local ownership in post-conflict environments. The account offered here is an ethnography of local ownership in a specific context. Through such accounts, we argue, training programmes can go beyond emphasizing the difficulties relating to local ownership, and instead emphasize how these can be solved in different contexts, on a case-bycase basis. By offering an ethnographical account of practices of local ownership in Liberian ministries, problematizing the role played by international embedded experts, we argue that where you stand may actually depend on where you sit. In a difficult post-conflict environment, local ownership in the initial phases may not be possible without borrowing capacity from the outside. In the end, the important question may be not who does the work, but whose perspectives underlie the policies that are adopted and implemented.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Liberia
  • Author: Cedric De Coning, Andreas Øien Stensland, Walter Lotze
  • Publication Date: 07-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The protection of civilians (PoC) has received increasing levels of attention in United Nations (UN) mandated peacekeeping operations over the course of the past decade. Since 1999, eleven UN peacekeeping operations have been provided with increasingly robust protection of civilians mandates, and the UN System has over the past years focussed increasing levels of attention on the protection of civilians, not only in peacekeeping operations, but indeed across the range of activities undertaken by the UN in support of conflict management, resolution and transformation efforts. Although the wording of the clauses that address the protection of civilians in UN Security Council resolutions has been quite similar to date, the ways in which different missions have implemented these mandates have varied. Because missions operate within differing contexts, each mission is required to develop a unique strategy through which to achieve the common principles and aims of protecting civilians in conflict situations according to the unique setting in which it operates.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, United Nations, Peacekeeping
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper introduces service innovation in the proximity-concentration trade-off model of trade and FDI (Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple, 2004). The idea is that innovation will have two main effects on service firms' choice between exports and FDI. First, innovative firms will on average have higher productivity levels than non-innovative enterprises. Secondly, innovators will have to pay a higher relational distance cost for undertaking export activities, and they will therefore prefer to avoid (or reduce) these costs by choosing a FDI strategy instead. We test the empirical relevance of this idea on a new survey dataset for a representative sample of firms in all business service sectors in Norway. The results show that firms are more likely to choose FDI rather than export the greater their productivity level and the higher the relational distance costs they face.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Author: Randi Solhjell
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: International responses to the conflicts in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) bordering Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda have been widely criticized as inadequate. The region is poorly understood by the international community. The general international preference for working with states and institutions – in a region where none of these exists in the form familiar to the West – complicates responses significantly.
  • Topic: Crime, Gender Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Per Botolf Maurseth
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: A stylised fact from the large and growing literature on relationships between trade and growth is that liberal trade policies may stimulate growth. However, there is no academic consensus that liberal trade policies are either necessary or sufficient ingredients in growth promoting policies. In this paper, the relationships between trade policy and growth are investigated. The paper adds some new findings. My measure of trade policy is not only applied average tariff rates which have been used by others, but such tariff rates for agriculture and manufacturing separately. The results indicate opposite results of the two: Protection of manufacturing correlates negatively with growth, while tariffs on agriculture imports seem to have a weaker though positive correlation. These results are robust in the sense that they remain significant with the same sign independently of different specifications and inclusions of various control variables.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Karoline R. Eckroth
  • Publication Date: 02-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The changing nature of armed conflict has resulted in increased need to safeguard civilians, including humanitarian personnel, which is reflected in the emerging protection of civilians agenda. This report considers to what extent the issues raised in the recently updated OCHA Aide Memoire reflect the security needs of aid workers on the ground, by examining the case of Darfur
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig, Gbewopo Attila
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Recently economists have begun to study various aspects of public sector institutions (with their behavioral neighborhoods) and their effects on the long run economic development. Degrees of corruption, rule of law and protection of property rights have all apparently significant economic impact. These results are all based on the construction of indicators for these difficult-to-observe explanatory variable complexes. In most cases the indicators applied have been developed for most countries and have on the one hand 'nice' statistical properties when embedded in regression equations, but on the other hand are conceptually fuzzy with unclear relationships to basic observations. In this paper we go through many of the same relationships, but based on international efforts to collect questionnaire information about citizens' experience with crime and police corruption. This information is more conceptually distinct and likely to be more closely related to relevant experience, but proves on the other hand less amenable to econometric analysis. Despite the latter weakness we have found it worthwhile to pursue it in order to complement the indicator- based approaches.
  • Topic: Corruption, Crime, Economics, Law
  • Author: Karsten Friis
  • Publication Date: 03-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Over the last years there has been an increasingly vocal call for improved coherence and coordination among the international community engaged in Afghanistan. Facing a surge in violence, limited developmental and economical progress and a corrupt and inept domestic political leadership, it is assumed that better coordination among the international actors will address many, if not all, these challenges.
  • Topic: Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Military Strategy, Foreign Aid, Counterinsurgency, Governance, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Karl M. Rich, Brian D. Perry
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Market access for livestock products from Africa has traditionally been limited by the presence of certain infectious diseases that pose risks to animal and human health. However, an increasingly discussed option for increasing market access for African meat exports is the concept of commodity-based trade (CBT) that focuses on the health and safety attributes of the product rather than the disease status of the country of origin. While this concept is gaining traction in international policy circles, there have been few analyses on the potential economic impacts and unintended consequences of such an approach. This paper examines the principles behind a dramatic shift in approach to trading opportunities that CBT might bring, exploring both technical and economic considerations.
  • Topic: Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Robert Muggah
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This literature review offers a general overview of policy-related and theoretical innovations in disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) over the past decade. Drawing on an extensive review of academic and prescriptive contributions, it teases out key trends in the character and shape of DDR activities. If detects a shift from minimalist (security-first) interventions preoccupied with military and police priorities to maximalist (development-oriented) activities in the present era. It also notes a progressive professionalisation and standardization of DDR practice within the multilateral, bilateral and non-governmental communities. Moreover, the review observes a shift in the focus of research on DDR. Early in the decade, scholars were preoccupied with the process and practice of DDR as a spatially, temporally and socially bounded activity. Whilst establishing useful conceptual parameters, these researchers seldom considered more fundamental issues of causality and correlation, actor agency or intervention outcomes. Meanwhile, the latest wave of scholars are investing in comparative case studies, statistical assessments drawing on large-n samples and more experimental approaches to test counter-factuals. Focusing on a wider case selection these researchers are also exploring new sectoral horizons such as the relationships between DDR and combatant agency, peace agreements, transitional justice, security sector reform, and state-building more generally.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Peace Studies
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Benjamin de Carvalho
  • Publication Date: 09-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Rule of law reforms in Liberia over the past five years serve as a clear example of how the international community has failed on this point, as the country's own practices have been generally neglected in the process. Characteristically, there is little updated information on the customary law and traditional practices of Liberia. In investigating how the international community addresses SGBV in Liberia, we found within the liberal peacekeeping/building paradigm few analytical tools that could be used to gain a solid understanding of the host country 'from below'. This area of society remains a professional blind-spot and represents a gap in the efforts of the international peacekeeping/-building community to build a sustainable peace in the country.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Law, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Liberia
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Gaaitzen J. de Vries, Bart Los
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In their influential study on productivity growth at the sector-level, Bernard and Jones (1996, BJ) observed convergence of aggregate labor productivity levels in 14 highly developed countries in 1970-1987. They also found evidence that this could be attributed to convergence in services productivity rather than in manufacturing. The main question this paper addresses is whether this result can be generalized to a broader set of countries. Several strands of growth theory suggest that thresholds with regard to a variety of issues can lead to multiple growth regimes, which are likely to lead to very heterogeneous patterns of convergence and divergence. To analyze this, we use econometric techniques that explicitly allow for identification of parameter heterogeneity (quantile regressions and quantile smoothing splines), both with regard to initial conditions and to performance conditional on these initial productivity levels. BJ's data are extended in several dimensions. The recently developed sectoral dataset we use spans the period 1970-2004 and covers 49 countries, including many developing countries. Overall, our findings suggest that convergence as found by BJ only applies to limited groups of country-sectors ('convergence islands'), whereas the biggest parts of our sample spaces can be considered as 'oceans of divergence'.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 08-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on the dimensions shaping the dynamics of technology. We present a model where the knowledge stock of a country grows over time as a function of three main factors: its innovation intensity, its technological infrastructures and its human capital. The latter two variables contribute to determine the absorptive capacity of a country as well as its innovative ability. Based on this theoretical framework, we carry out an empirical analysis that investigates the dynamics of technology in a large sample of developed and developing economies in the last two-decade period, and studies its relationships with the growth of income per capita in a dynamic panel model setting. The results indicate that the cross-country distributions of technological infrastructures and human capital have experienced a process of convergence, whereas the innovative intensity is characterized by increasing polarization between rich and poor economies. Thus, while the conditions for catching up have generally improved, the increasing innovation gap represents a major factor behind the observed differences in income per capita.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Science and Technology, Infrastructure
  • Author: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper seeks to explain state failures. To do so, we focus on non-market forms of interactions in the public sector that allow officials to move into high or low effort levels, a kind of state tendency to bipolarity or manic depression. The activity level actually 'chosen' will have important consequences for the overall non-state economy. The paper outlines reasons why low effort and high corruption levels are likely to go together and increase the risks for possible rise in violent conflicts. It further describes mechanisms that show how non-formal institutions may impact corruption, state activity levels and possible economic gains from joining violent rebellion.
  • Topic: Corruption, Markets, Fragile/Failed State
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Using a world trade model with India subdivided into states, the paper examines how regional disparities are affected by domestic inter-state trade as well as international trade. According to the analysis, international liberalisation promotes decentralisation and convergence, not divergence, so trade is not to blame for India's growing regional disparities. High economic growth within India makes domestic markets more important and the geographical effect of this is opposite to that of globalisation. This may counterbalance the geographical impact of international liberalisation and explain why recent changes in geographical clustering in India are limited. The empirical results are consistent with this. They also indicate that Indian services expansion is largely driven by increases in domestic demand due to growth, and that domestic market integration is essential for India's manufacturing sector. We argue that for larger nations, the domestic inter-regional trade is important and India should have a trade policy that addresses domestic as well as international market integration.
  • Topic: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India, Asia
  • Author: Grant Dansie
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Current descriptions and explanations of the situation in Afghanistan include the use of a wide range of terms; however the true meaning of these terms is often unclear. In planning and outlining effective strategy clear and useful definitions will be required to ensure worthwhile and successful results. This study examines how definitions may significantly affect strategy by focusing on the example of non-violent or low level violent actors in Afghanistan that are perceived as negatively affecting international peace and stability operations. It highlights that the situation is inherently more complex that at first glance. Our definitions may carry entrenched meanings that negatively affect our perceptions of certain actors. At the same time the situation on the ground is extremely complex with numerous factors influencing this perceived negative behaviour. The study outlines a number of dilemmas involved in developing these definitions, as well as highlighting how these play out on the ground. The study draws on a number of interviews with NGO workers, researchers, Western government officials and NATO/ISAF troops.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, NATO, War, Non State Actors
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States
  • Author: Linda Skjold Oksnes
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper analyzes the convergence process of industrial productivity across Russian regions during the period 1996-2004 by applying empirical methods. The industrial sector refers to, in accordance with Russian official statistics, oil gas extraction, electricity production, mining quarrying and manufacturing. Convergence in productivity levels is well analyzed in economic literature, but few have tested the hypothesis on Russian regions. Most previous convergence analysis of Russian regions has examined the development in income per capita. Russia's special history and vast geographical extent have led to huge regional variations in resource endowments, market access and industrial structure, to name a few. Since the regression results are highly sensitive for regionspecific factors, these are identified and controlled for in the analysis. In addition, panel data techniques are used to check the robustness of the results to region-specific characteristics, which are not always measurable. The analysis also tests whether there is a tendency to economic agglomeration in the data. The hypothesis of absolute convergence is not supported in the analysis, but when region-specific factors are controlled for there are signs of convergence among Russian regions.Trade and investment as a share of regional industrial production appear in the analysis as the most significant explanatory variables.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Fredrik Wilhelmsson
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the effect of the EU enlargement process on income convergence among regions in the EU and in the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU. The data used is NUTS II regions in the EU and Oblasts' of Russia over the period 1996-2004. The estimation techniques used take into account both regional and spatial heterogeneity. The main findings are that the regional income differences are reduced within EU15. The income convergence within the EU is mainly driven by reductions in the differences across countries rather than by a reduction in regional differences within countries. When differences in initial conditions in the regions are controlled for by fixed regional effects there are strong evidences of convergence among regions in all studied country groups.
  • Topic: International Relations, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Benjamin de Carvalho, Jon Harald Sande Lie
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Although the Protection of Civilians (PoC) today is largely embedded in the UN system as a whole, there are a number of issues still critical to address at the institutional level for the PoC to inform a shared culture of protection effectively. These include addressing the extent to which preparations for civilian protection are an integral component of mission planning, and whether protection activities are part of the mission's mandate per se or a mere part of its many tasks. Also of key concern is the extent to which operational capacity is achieved and designed to enhance protection.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Benjamin de Carvalho
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The international response to SGBV in Liberia – in spite of having been touted as one of the great success stories in implementing UNSC resolution 1325 by the UN and the Liberian government – has so far at best been misguided.
  • Topic: Crime, Gender Issues, Law
  • Political Geography: Africa, United Nations, Liberia
  • Author: Chen Taifeng
  • Publication Date: 07-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The simultaneous emergence of rapidly developing RTAs and a strengthened and more encompassing MTS attracts worldwide attention. “Complementary Competition” is the very essence of the RTA/MTS relationship. Both compete complementarily in trade liberalization and economic integration initiatives. Since joining the WTO, China has pursued a “three-pronged” economic and trade development strategy of pushing forward regional trade cooperation and bilateral trade cooperation while enhancing multilateral trade and cooperation. After joining the WTO, China has basically developed a spatial landscape of “focusing on Asia-Pacific and reaching out globally” with regard to its participation in the RTA.By participating in RTAs, China can obtain the same benefits of market openness and trade and investment liberalization as other countries do. It is important for China not to act too hastily, but to push forward regional cooperation step by step from adjacent to remote regions and level by level, from easy to difficult regions. Asia is especially important to China, and Asian economic cooperation is the foundation of China's RTA policy.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Cedric De Coning
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The mixed findings of a number of recent peacekeeping, humanitarian and peacebuilding evaluation reports and related research, and the poor sustainability of peacebuilding activities undertaken to date, have led to a renewed focus on efforts aimed at improving our ability to undertake meaningful, coherent, coordinated and sustainable peace interventions. For example, the Joint Utstein Study of peacebuilding, which analysed 336 peacebuilding projects implemented by Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Norway over the past decade, has identified a lack of coherence at the strategic level, what it terms a 'strategic deficit', as the most significant obstacle to sustainable peacebuilding (Smith, 2003:16). That study found that more than 55% of the programmes it evaluated did not show any link to a larger country strategy.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper presents a survey of theoretical models of heterogeneity, growth and competitiveness. We compare two main theoretical traditions, evolutionary economics and mainstream heterogeneity models, in order to investigate whether the incorporation of heterogeneous agents has made the recent wave of mainstream models more similar to the evolutionary modelling style and results. The results of our survey exercise can be summarized as follows. On the one hand, we observe some increasing similarities and converging aspects between the evolutionary and the mainstream approaches to the study of heterogeneity. On the other hand, however, there are still some fundamental differences between them, which mainly relate to the distinct set of theoretical assumptions and methodological frameworks in which these heterogeneity models are set up and rooted. In short, the evolutionary approach emphasizes the complexities of the growth process and makes an effort to provide a realistic description of it, whereas the mainstream approach does instead follow a modelling methodology that emphasizes the analytical power and tractability of the formalization, even if that implies a somewhat simplified and less realistic description of the growth process.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci, Jinghai Zheng
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper investigates the relationships between technological regimes and firm-level productivity performance, and it explores how such a relationship differs in different Schumpeterian patterns of innovation. The analysis makes use of a rich dataset containing data on innovation and other economic characteristics of a large representative sample of Norwegian firms in manufacturing and service industries for the period 1998-2004. First, we decompose TFP growth into technical progress and efficiency changes by means of data envelopment analysis. We then estimate an empirical model that relates these two productivity components to the characteristics of technological regimes and a set of other firm-specific factors. The results indicate that: (1) TFP growth has mainly been achieved through technical progress, while technical efficiency has on average decreased; (2) the characteristics of technological regimes are important determinants of firm-level productivity growth, but their impacts on technical progress are different from the effects on efficiency change; (3) the estimated model works differently in the two Schumpeterian regimes. Technical progress has been more dynamic in Schumpeter Mark II industries, while efficiency change has been more important in Schumpeter Mark I markets.
  • Topic: Economics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe, Norway
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 04-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the convergence clubs literature from a Schumpeterian perspective, and it follows the idea that cross-country differences in the ability to innovate and to imitate foreign technologies determine the existence of clustering, polarization and convergence clubs. The study investigates the characteristics of different technology clubs and the growth trajectories that they have followed over time. The cross-country empirical analysis first explores the existence of multiple regimes in the data by means of cluster analysis techniques. It then estimates a technology-gap growth equation in a dynamic panel model specification. The empirical results identify three distinct technology clubs, and show that these are characterized by remarkably different technological characteristics and growth behavior.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Author: B.P. Vani, Meenakshi Rajeev
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Services trade has assumed considerable significance for the Indian economy. The role of IT and IT-enabled services (ITES) is particularly worth mentioning in this context. The growth of this sector has not only helped to improve the current account balance of India, but also generated income and employment. This paper anlyses data on services trade provided by IMF for different countries across the globe and examines India's position in relation to other countries. In particular, the paper compares India's exports of IT and ITES (clubbed together in IMF classification under other business and computer services categories) vis-à-vis some of its competitors in this field as far as international trade is concerned. The paper then looks at the trade in IT-enabled outsourcing services from India and examines the strengths and weaknesses of India as an outsourcing location.
  • Topic: Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: India, Asia
  • Author: Reidar Visser
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The argument in this paper is two-fold: On the one hand, the oil-rich far south of Iraq has a special potential for radical and unpredictable millenarianism by discontented Sadrists; on the other hand, developments among the Sadrist leadership nationally suggest that many key figures – including Muqtada al-Sadr himself and some of his lieutenants with links to Basra – still prefer a more moderate course and will seek to hold on to a veneer of Shiite orthodoxy as long as possible. Accordingly, the future of the Sadrist movement, including in the far south, will likely be decided by how US and Iraqi government policies develop over coming months. If Washington chooses to support Nuri al-Maliki in an all-out attack against the Sadrists, the response may well be an intensification of unpredictable Mahdist militancy in the far south, in a far more full-blown picture than anything seen so far. There will be no genuine national reconciliation in Baghdad, simply because the centralism of the Sadrists is a necessary ingredient in any grand compromise that can appeal to real Sunni representatives. Conversely, if the Sadrists are encouraged to participate in the next local elections, Amara, where Sadrists have been engaged in local politics since 2005, could emerge as a model of positive Sadrist contributions to local politics in Iraq. At the national level, too, the Sadrists could come to play the same constructive role as that seen in February 2008, when they together with Fadila reached out to Sunni Islamists and secularists to challenge the paralysed Maliki government on a nationalist basis by demanding early provincial elections.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Islam, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Baghdad, Palestine
  • Author: Cedric H. de Coning
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The 1992 Agenda for Peace was a landmark development in the conflict management field, but it did also produce side-effects. The UN, AU, EU and others have developed conflict management capacities that have encouraged the bureaucratic compartmentalization of the 4Ps across different units and departments. This report introduces an integrated conflict management model that is, instead, focussed on the multi-dimensional (political, security, socio-economic, rule of law and human rights) nature of conflict systems, and the need to coherently combine the collective efforts of a wide range of internal and external actors to build momentum towards peace. The report argues that, in the AU context, such an integrated conflict management model would be more effective and efficient than the existing 4Ps model. The AU, being smaller, newer and more open to further development and capacity building than the UN and EU, has a better chance of breaking free from the inadequacies of the bureaucratic 4Ps model, and adopting an integrated conflict management model.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Organization, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe
  • Author: Iver B. Neumann
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The end of the 15th Century saw what was beginning to be known as Europeans coming into first contact with the 'new world' to their West, and driving the Moor out of Europe to their South. In what contemporaneity thought of as 'the North', i.e. what we would now call the East, a less conspicuous but nonetheless highly consequential development took place. Beyond Poland, a new political entity was making itself felt in such a degree that diplomatic relations had to be sought with it. This was Muscovy, led by Ivan III. Russians shared an experience with Christians in the South Balkans and the South Iberians; they had fresh experience with being ruled by non-Christians, more specifically, by the Mongols who were based in their tent capital Saray at the Volga. I start with a presentation of Mongol and Rus' political organization at the time of the invasion in 1240, and discuss Rus' as a suzeraign system which was part of the Golden Horde empire (which was itself in the early decades part of the Mongol empire). I then ask how, once the Golden Horde fell apart and Muscovy emerged as a separate polity, Muscovy's Mongol connection coloured its entry into the European states system. My conclusion is that, since Muscovy itself chose to seek recognition among other things as successors to the Mongol Golden Horde and since it did so by dint of a number of practices that were taken directly from the Mongols, European powers were warranted in seeing Russia as a partly Asian polity. The argument is framed as a critique of the English School's proclivity for treating sequences such as these as cases of 'expansion of international society'. I attempt to demonstrate that such a perspective cannot account adequately for what should rather be treated as relations between cultures.
  • Topic: History
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Poland, South Iberia
  • Author: Dorota Gierycz
  • Publication Date: 06-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Transitional justice refers to a range of approaches that may be used to address past massive human rights violations. Transitional justice mechanisms include international tribunals, reconciliation commissions and truth-seeking measures. In recent years their importance and visibility increased due to gross human rights violations associated with armed conflicts in different parts of the world. While the crimes committed in Srebranica and Rwanda shocked the public opinion and paved the way for establishment of international judicial bodies, the peaceful transition in South Africa drew attention to its Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) as a possible model for seeking peace and justice through non-judicial means. So what is the added value of Transitional Justice for coming to terms with the past and building just and peaceful societies? The author reviews some past experiences and models of Transitional Justice and points to their weaknesses and strengths. As the main achievements she cites the international tribunals' contribution to the development of jurisprudence in some areas of international criminal law and the delivery of justice in a manner impossible for local courts in post - war countries; as their weaknesses, the perception of delivering the “winners` justice” and rather limited involvement of populations from the affected countries. She also provides sets of recommendations as to how to improve the effectiveness of reconciliation commissions established in post-conflict countries, in the context of the United Nations peace operations.
  • Topic: Civil Society, International Law, International Organization
  • Political Geography: South Africa, Rwanda
  • Author: Odd Helge Fjeldstad, Jens Chr.1 Andvig
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper examines (i) how and why corruption may arise in the daily routines of the police and whether it may have impacts on crime rates; (ii) empirical indications of whether the police may be more corrupt than other groups of public officials; (iii) how and why police corruption may vary across countries; and (iv) the wider impacts of police corruption on development.
  • Topic: Corruption, Crime, Government, Poverty
  • Author: Harald Olav Skar
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: A retired colleague at NUPI, who had been a prisoner of war during the Nazi occupation of Norway, once remarked: “The problem of youth movements has always been that they take on a life of their own, and are not easily controlled by the mother party.” On the other hand the mother party may use exactly this 'unruliness' to its favour when illegitimate targets are to be achieved. If the youth branch can be used to do political “dirty work”, while the mother party itself remains “clean” and lawful, then an additional strategic advantage may be gained. My colleague remembered the deeds of the Third Reich and the Nazi youth movement with apprehension, hoping that the new world would not see the likes of these.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Norway, Asia, Nepal
  • Author: Daniel Heradstveit, G. Matthew Bonham, Michiko Nakano, Victor M.Sergeev
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on how leaders in Western countries talk about the “war on terrorism.” The paper discusses the difficulties of defining “terrorism,” because, unlike Marxism or capitalism, “terrorism” is not an ideology. Instead the term may be used to designate actions that are used by members of non-governmental organizations against civilian targets. In the case of the “war on terrorism,” the signifier, “terrorism,” is used widely. However, the signified, the perpetrators and what they do, are quite different. Because the designation of the signified depends upon the speaker, the concept of terrorism seems to be subjective and fluid. The signified switches radically both by context and over time, while the only aspect that is stable is the signifier, “terrorism.” The paper goes on to analyze the “war on terrorism” as an ontological metaphor. The paper concludes by arguing that although figures of speech contribute to the cognitive dimension of meaning by helping us to recognize the equivalence to which we are committed and suggesting new equivalences, metaphors like the “war on terrorism” raise problems and do little to increase our understanding. Considering different cultural codes and world views, this type of metaphor is highly counterproductive for communication on the global level.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Author: Niels Nagelhus Schia, Ståle Ulriksen
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Despite major institutional differences regarding mandate, roles and membership, the UN, the EU and NATO all face common security challenges and operate together in several theatres throughout the world. There is now broad consensus that today's security challenges can be most effectively addressed through an integrated approach. This has led to a process where the organisations have acknowledged the necessity and efficiency of cooperation within and with each other. In turn, international and regional organisations such as the UN, NATO, the EU and the AU, all have developed integration approaches. These include models and concepts such as NATO's 'the comprehensive approach' and 'Effects-based Approach to Operations (EBAO)', 'whole-of-government' approaches, and the UN's 'integrated missions' concept.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, International Cooperation, Non-Governmental Organization
  • Author: Leo A. Grünfeld, Francesca Sanna-Randaccio
  • Publication Date: 01-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Under what conditions will a technology leader from a small country acquire a laggard from a large country, and vice versa? We answer this question with a two-firm two-country Cournot model, where firms enter new markets via greenfield FDI or acquisition. The model takes into account both technological and market size asymmetries, and allows for M transaction costs, like corporate finance and legal fees. We show that to be the acquirer, a firm from a small country needs not only a strong technological lead but also the ability to exploit it on a global scale, which requires low international technology transfer costs. Moreover, we find that a multilateral greenfield investment liberalization may actually increase the incentives for foreign acquisitions. The effect of such liberalization on the nationality of the acquirer depends largely on the extent of the technology gap.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology
  • Author: Ulrik Pram Gad
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: As one of the last decisions before it broke for this year's summer recess, The Danish Parliament, Folketinget, passed two bills to facilitate the participation of Danish municipalities in the International Cities of Refuge Network. On the face of it, it might be good news that yet another country opens its borders to writers targeted with threats and persecution.
  • Topic: Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Immigration
  • Political Geography: Europe, Denmark
  • Author: Meenakshi Rajeev
  • Publication Date: 08-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The fisheries sector assumes significance in the Indian economy in several respects. The most important amongst them is the providence of livelihood to many poor households especially located in the coastal areas. These households can generate income from the sector due to the fact that many varieties of marine fishes have been exported from the country including chilled and dried items, fish oil, shrimp and prawns. Thus from the point of view of employment and income generation, international trade has considerable significance as well. It is the trade aspect of the sector that would be the focus of the current paper.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, Food
  • Political Geography: South Asia, India
  • Author: Gbewopo Attila
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In this paper, I analyze how corruption in one country may be affected by its neighbors' corruption. It seeks to explain why corruption is perpetuating in large geographical areas populated by developing countries despite anticorruption efforts made in the single country.
  • Topic: Corruption, Development, Third World, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Omar Azfar, Tugrul Gurgur
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: We study the causal relationship between police corruption, crime and crime reporting, using data from the International Crime Victimization Survey. Using a simultaneous equations approach we find a number of intuitive relationships, which are statistically significant. The clearest of these is that crime reporting reduces police corruption.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, Economics, Sociology
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a model of structural change and the growth of industrial sectors. The model analyses the process of diffusion of general- purpose technologies (GPTs) and how this affects the dynamic performance of manufacturing and service industries. The empirical analysis studies the dynamics and the determinants of labour productivity growth of a large number of sectors in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970-2005. The results of dynamic panel data and cross-sectional analysis provide support for the empirical validity of the model. Industries that are close to the core of the emerging GPT based on information and communication technologies (ICTs) are characterized by greater innovative capabilities and have recently experienced a more dynamic performance. Relatedly, countries that have been able to shift their industrial structure towards these high-opportunity manufacturing and service industries have grown more rapidly.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy
  • Author: Paulo Esteves
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper discusses the emergence of the International as a regime of power at the end of the eighteenth century and the transformations this regime has been facing since the end of cold war. Two main questions were proposed to the paper. First, how these transformations can be understood and re-described. With this question, I do not want to establish a debate among different theoretical orientations, but to make an experiment that departing from a theoretical proposition, try to understand how a specific regime of power – in this case, the international – arise and transform itself. The second question is related to the very nature of these transformations: What has been changing in the last two decades and how these changes have been processed in terms of strategies and techniques of power.
  • Topic: International Relations, Imperialism, Political Theory, Power Politics
  • Author: Ulrik Pram Gad
  • Publication Date: 10-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Since 9/11, the terrorist is often awarded the position of the radical Other of Danish identity; the personified existential threat to Denmark (not primarily as a state but as a society). The strategy of the Danish government to counter terrorism describes itself as covering a 'broad spectrum' of efforts. It includes an 'active foreign policy' in relation to the Muslim world and an 'active integration policy' in relation to Muslim migrants. Both inside and outside the nation state efforts range from 'hard power' security strategies of elimination and control involving military, police, and intelligence operations to 'soft power' strategies of information, partnerships, and dialogue. The paper analyses Danish counterterrorism policies to identify the concepts of dialogue implied and the positions awarded to less-than-radical Muslim Others. The paper concludes that Muslims might in counterterrorism dialogue find a position for talking back – even if it is still a position circumscribed by control and securitization.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Migration, Terrorism, Immigration
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents new results on within-country regional inequality in per capita income for 36 countries during 1995-2005; focusing on Europe but with some non-European countries included for comparison. In 23 of the 36 countries there was a significant increase in regional inequality during the period, and in only three cases there was a reduction. Regional inequality increased in all countries of Central and Eastern Europe, while for most Western European countries there was little change. For the EU-27 as a whole, there was a modest increase in within-country regional inequality, but convergence across countries. The latter effect was quantitatively more important, so on the whole there was income convergence in the EU-27, especially after 2000. Regional inequality is particularly important for some large middle-income countries such as China, Russia and Mexico. In such countries there may however be considerable price differences across regions, and the use of common price deflators for the whole country may lead to a biased assessment of regional inequality.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy, Social Stratification, Sociology
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Europe, Mexico
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Does European economic integration create more inequality between domestic regions, or is the opposite true? While former research has asked for a general answer to this question, we argue that such a general answer does not exist and that the outcome depends on the liberalisation scenario. In order to examine this, we need models with higher dimensionality where the question is where and not whether there will be spatial agglomeration. For this purpose, the paper develops a numerical simulation model with nine countries and 90 regions in order to examine the impact of European and international integration on the regions. Eastward extension of European integration is beneficial for old as well as new members, but within countries the impact varies along the east-west axis. Reduction in distance-related trade costs is particularly good for the European peripheries. Each liberalisation scenario has a distinct impact on the spatial income distribution, and there is no general rule telling that integration causes more or less agglomeration.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Implementation of the European internal market and East-West integration has been accompanied by a dramatic change in the spatial distribution of economic activity, with higher growth west and east of a longitude degree through Germany and Italy. In the east, income growth has been accompanied by increasing regional disparities within countries. We examine theoretically and empirically whether European integration as such can explain these developments. Using a numerical simulation model with 9 countries and 90 regions, theoretical predictions are derived about how various patterns of integration may affect the income distribution. Comparing with reality, we find that a reduction in distance-related trade costs combined with east-west integration is best able to explain the actual changes in Europe's economic geography. This suggests that the implementation of the European internal market or the Euro has “made Europe smaller”. In Central Europe, the dominance of capital regions tends to eliminate east-west growth differences inside countries. There is no convincing support for the hypothesis that European integration had adverse effects on non-members.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Nina Græger
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper explores the increased outsourcing of humanitarian and, in particular, development services in conflict and post-conflict settings to private, profit-seeking companies that operate according to commercial principles. In integrated post-conflict missions, humanitarian aid and reconstruction and development tasks (including state building) now take place more or less in parallel. Arguably, governments, donors, NGOs and commercial companies are increasingly becoming part of the same political project: to assist countries in the transition from war to peace. The blurring of the lines between war and post-war settings has expanded the scope of activity by commercial actors. On the positive side, commercial companies seem to score better on efficiency and may contribute to a more professional humanitarian and development sector. On the negative side, the ability of governments to monitor and control private contractors is limited, while at the same time, allegations of corruption have sometimes been raised. Furthermore, profit-maximising companies are not likely to abide by or feel committed to established concepts and principles of humanitarian action in the provision of their services to the same extent as more traditional actors. If this is the case, the long-term legitimacy of the international community's commitment in war and post-war settings may suffer serious damage.
  • Topic: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, Third World, Foreign Aid
  • Author: Boye Lillerud
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper argues that unconventional methods and special operations should not be limited to military Special Operations Forces (SOF). It examines a potential role for SOF in a Counter Insurgency (COIN), with specific reference to Unity of Effort. It postulates that Special Forces are the sharpest instruments in the military toolbox available to policymakers, yet the great tactical success of these forces has not necessarily been translated into strategic success.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Author: Fulvio Castellacci
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in various service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities suggests three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Per Botolf Maurseth
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: In recent years, countries' governance has been paid increasing attention. At the same time, the availability of governance indicators has also increased. Such indicators are used by investors, aid donors and researchers. This paper reviews some commonly used governance indicators. Their construction and their usefulness are discussed. It is con-cluded that governance indicators are a useful tool for evaluating countries' performance, but that they should be complemented with other sources of information.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Post Colonialism, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Leo A. Grünfeld, Francesca Sanna-Randaccio
  • Publication Date: 12-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper discusses three important legacies that the first nuclear age, that of the Cold War, left behind: (1) the recurrent attempts at threat inflation and the corresponding politics of fear; (2) enormous stocks of poorly protected weapons and fissile materials; and (3) a vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. It goes on to explain the characteristics of the second nuclear age, a notion that Paul Bracken introduced after the testing in South Asia in 1998. Finally, it discusses two basic conditions for the international non-proliferation regime to function effectively: leadership and compatibility with the distribution of power in the international system. The latter is primarily about the rise of Asia in international affairs.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Author: Pernille Rieker
  • Publication Date: 12-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: With its special character in relation to both institutional design and policy content, the EU is often classified as a 'post-modern' security actor. What does this actually mean? What kind of capabilities does a post-modern actor have? This article focuses on the development of political and administrative capabilities in the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy. If it is true that the EU is becoming an increasingly important security actor, we should expect an increase in these kinds of capabilities as well. According to March Olsen (1995) little can be accomplished without capabilities such as rights and authorities, resources, competencies and organizational skills. This should also be true of a presumably 'post-modern' actor like the EU. This paper examines the extent to which the EU has established these kinds of capabilities in relation to its security policy, how they can be characterized and whether they have increased over time.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Author: Iver B. Neumann
  • Publication Date: 12-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Globalisation is shorthand for changes in space, time and the relationship between them. This paper, which will be forthcoming as a chapter in a book edited by Andrew Cooper and published by the United Nations University Press, argues that changes in deterritorialisation will not have thoroughgoing effects for diplomacy. A change in time, notably the change to zero lag-time in information flows, is, on the other hand, of key importance. So is the increase in the sheer mass and density of communication. If transcending boundaries is the essence of globalisation, then it stands to reason that state diplomats must sooner or later take cognizance of the other kinds of polities that exist within the system.
  • Topic: International Relations, Diplomacy, Globalization, Government
  • Author: Kristin M. Haugevik, Benjamin de Carvalho
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper discusses obstacles to civil-military cooperation in the context of multinational and interagency operations, with a special focus on assessment functions and processes. As such, the paper seeks to contribute to the ongoing process of developing a framework for assessment of operations within the context of MNE5. The rationale behind this study is to strengthen the basis for and the effectiveness of Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) of performances, effects, and end-states in multinational and interagency operations. The first section starts by identifying a set of key overall challenges to such cooperation, namely civilian and military actors' often lack of knowledge of one another's organizational identities, security concerns, and working procedures. The paper then discusses one of these categories, namely working procedures, in more detail, identifying in the second section the challenge of divergent operational terminologies, and in the third section the challenge of overcoming the information sharing gap when in the presence of similar assessment practices. The main suggestion of this paper is that knowledge about civilian and military operational terminologies and assessment practices is an imperative for successful civilmilitary cooperation in multinational and interagency operations. Such knowledge, we argue, is best obtained if both military and civilian actors respectively open their communication channels with the purpose of sharing information and operational experiences. Furthermore, based on the discussion, the paper raises a number of points which the authors believe would be valuable topics for further developing civil-military cooperation within the context of multinational and interagency operations.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Development, Government
  • Author: Indra Øverland, Kyrre Braekhus
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper examines the strategic convergence between Russia and China. Strategic convergence is understood as the overlap of key objectives and interests with regard to long-term developments in world politics, which provides the basis for extensive tactical co-operation between two or more states. The paper focuses on the compatibility of Russia and China in terms of complementary economies, location and political outlook. The match between Russian natural resources and Chinese markets is examined in particular. The paper concludes that a closer relationship between the two countries in many ways would be of mutual advantage, but that it is far from certain that an alliance will develop.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Russia, China
  • Author: Johnny Skorve
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: During the first NUPI study of the Novaya Zemlya underground nuclear test site in 1991–92, much information was generated. This relates both to facilities and testing activities. One of the most important discoveries made was the enormous catastrophic rockslide caused by an underground test. In recent years, new information has become available also from Russian sources. Declassified US satellite imagery made it possible for NUPI to study in more detail the effects of the powerful underground nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya. This report contains the most pivotal discoveries and findings during the three years of studying this arctic test site.
  • Topic: Development, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States
  • Author: Arne Melchior
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The paper examines the rationale for”aid for trade” (AfT), starting with a review of developments in the field and institutions involved. A statistical analysis attempts to trace for which countries there has not been a positive relationship between trade and development. The results indicate that for 40 countries, representing 2/3 of the world population, there has been a positive relationship between trade openness and growth. The relationship has however been negative for 15 countries representing 3% of the world population, and not so clear for the rest (around 100 countries, covering 30% of the world population). For the negative cases, the” problems with trade” are the same as the” problems with growth”, so AfT should be granted in conjunction with help for economic development in general. AfT related to supply-side limitations should be given not only to the LDCs (Least Developed Countries); other classifications in fact serve better in order to trace those with the greatest need for AfT.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Washington
  • Author: Axel Borchgrevink, Anita Haslie
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The report analyses the international engagement in Sudan since the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in relation to the Principles for Good International Engagement in Fragile States and Situations, which the OECD/DAC is currently developing. The report concludes that donor coordination has been quite advanced in Sudan, with a number of innovative mechanisms tried out. Furthermore, there has been a concerted effort towards contributing to the building of the South Sudan state. This effort, however, has focused on building institutions from the top down in Juba, without a complementary emphasis on building legitimacy and the relations between state apparatus and society. Moreover, strengthening the relationship between the Government of National Unity and the Government of South Sudan has been given relatively less attention. In terms of peacebuilding, there are also challenges for international engagement. More could have been done to contribute to a short-term peace dividend, and perhaps also to support the implementation of the CPA. On the basis of the experiences of the case of Sudan, the OECD/DAC Principles are found to be very relevant for guiding international engagement.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sudan, Juba
  • Author: Geir Flikke, Sergey O. Kisselyov
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: This paper is based on an analysis of electoral support to left-wing movements of parties and blocs in Ukraine from 1998 to 2006. It argues that traditional left-wing ideologies and thereby the position of the left-wing parties have eroded in the political landscape of Ukraine. The authors hold that this is due not only to the decline of traditional left-wing ideologies in Ukraine's electorate, but also to the return of a strong managed party for the Eastern regions of the country.
  • Topic: Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Kirsten Gislesen
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: After a conflict ends, there is a need to disarm, demobilise and reintegrate child soldiers into society. This report examines the challenges of achieving successful disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) of child soldiers, with reference to DDR processes in West Africa, and suggests how such problems can be overcome. The challenges posed by the DDR of child soldiers in West Africa are vast and complex. The disarmament and demobilisation phase involves a dilemma between the need to include as many child soldiers as possible in the DDR process (many whom do not carry weapons), with an often-conflicting need to collect as many weapons as possible. In the reintegration phase of DDR come the challenges of rehabilitating former child soldiers, both physically and psychologically; the difficulties of reuniting child soldiers with their families; and the difficulties of creating viable opportunities for demobilised child soldiers in a post-conflict society.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Africa, West Africa
  • Author: Geir Flikke, Jakub M. Godzimirski
  • Publication Date: 12-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The goal of this report is to examine Russia's policy towards secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space. In order to better understand Russia's policy choices in that sphere, the report addresses three key issues: the internal Russian debate on separatism as a security challenge in the post-Soviet space; Moscow's policies with regard to international institutions, regimes and frameworks; and the rising security agenda of international terrorism.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union, Moscow