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  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Now, more than ever, financial institutions require authoritative and trusted assessments of credit risk to pursue profitable opportunities in challenging markets. This report provides a snapshot of some of the capabilities of The Economist Intelligence Unit's (The EIU's) risk assessment services. It analyses risk scenarios in depth, to help you understand and respond to risks that could impact your business. The EIU can help you assess and compare cross-border credit and financial risk in 128 markets worldwide. Our Country Risk Service provides in-depth ratings enables you to swiftly identify countries which are experiencing a deterioration or improvement in creditworthiness and to rank countries in order of riskiness, it's a valuable tool to help your organisation to optimise its country credit limits.
  • Topic: Markets
  • Political Geography: Russia, Greece, Brazil, Italy
  • Author: Leo Abruzzese
  • Publication Date: 06-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: For the first time in at least two decades of reporting the worldwide cost of living survey Zurich sits atop the ranking as the world's most expensive city. An index swing of 34 percentage points pushed the Swiss city up 4 places compared to last year to overtake Tokyo which remains in 2nd place. Geneva, the other Swiss city surveyed saw a 30 percentage point rise in the cost of living to move up six places into joint third alongside Osaka.
  • Topic: International Relations, Demographics, Economics, Markets, Urbanization
  • Political Geography: Tokyo
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, Europe
  • Publication Date: 04-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 11-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, Communications
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, Brazil
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Last year we published Industries in 2012 and made a number of predictions about developments in our six key industries – Automotive, Consumer Goods and Retail, Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare and Telecommunications. Some of our predictions were prescient, others were premature.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: In the run-up to the global financial crisis, the euro area looked very much like a microcosm of the world economy. The region as a whole grew in line with its long-term trend, and its trade position with the outside world was broadly in balance. However, the euro area's aggregate position masked large variations across the member states. In some parts of the region (notably countries on the geographical periphery), demand grew consistently faster than output; in others (like Germany), the reverse was the case. Profligacy in the periphery was funded by thrift in the "core". This arrangement suited both sides.for a time at least. While countries in the periphery enjoyed debt-fuelled booms, countries such as Germany, where domestic demand was weak, could rely on exports to keep growing.
  • Topic: Debt, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe, Germany
  • Author: Caroline Bain
  • Publication Date: 09-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Global oil consumption grew by 3.4% in 2010, rebounding from a contraction of 1% in 2009. Consumption growth will slow in 2011-14 but remain relatively strong.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil
  • Publication Date: 09-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
  • Topic: Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: China
  • Publication Date: 10-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, microfinance has begun to enter a more mature and sustainable growth phase. After years of rapid expansion, the focus has turned to accelerating the improvements already underway in corporate governance, regulatory capacity and risk management. Indeed, risk management, which has become a post-crisis priority for all financial institutions, has improved considerably in the microfinance sector, which is essential, given that it is offering an increasingly diversified range of innovative financial services to the poor. Efforts to strengthen the sector sit comfortably beside new opportunities; microfinance is well positioned to take further advantage of technological and market innovations and to build on improvements already underway.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Governance
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Thirteen years since its launch, Europe's common currency is in crisis. A Greek debt restructuring is inevitable, and concern is now focusing on contagion among the larger euro area economies. The prospect of a cascade of disorderly sovereign defaults is chilling investors, and the departure of some members from the common currency is increasingly being discussed. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that the currency area will survive, but the odds of failure are too high to ignore. To help clients anticipate the implications for their operations of a collapse in the euro zone, we have compiled a list of frequently asked questions (FAQ), exploring the potential scope and impact of a euro-area break-up. We look at what “break-up” could mean, although in practice numerous possible permutations exist between the extremes of departure by a single country and the exit of all 17 members.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Steven Leslie, Jason Karaian
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Sweeping overhaul is now law However, many years will be needed to create agencies, conduct studies and write rules Phase-in provisions for many measure.
  • Topic: Government, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Leo Abruzzese, Editorial Director for North America, discusses the latest EIU forecast for the world. Forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve in many countries in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the contraction in global GDP is over. The improvement has triggered hopes of an imminent and sustained global economic recovery. But does this signal the start of a genuine strong recovery, or is it a false dawn, to be followed by months—or even years—of anemic growth? What is the outlook for the US, Canada, and Asia, as well as the major emerging markets, over the next couple of years? And what are the downside risks to this outlook?
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, Canada, Asia, North America
  • Author: Robert Ward
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Economist Intelligence Unit
  • Abstract: Global: Recoverology Bounce-back theory: "V". The sharper the contraction, the stronger the recovery Financial-impairment theory: "U", "L" Recoveries following financial crises are much slower than normal recoveries Borrowed-time theory: "W" Stimulus boosts economy at the cost of weakness later Armageddon theory: "Q" Too grim to talk about.
  • Topic: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Asia