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  • Author: Anne Mette Kjær
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Ugandan economy resembles many other economies in sub-Saharan Africa in that it has a large subsistence sector, relies on a few primary commodities for export and depends on aid to finance its public services. Oil and minerals have so far not been important to the economy. However, this might change as an estimated 3.5 billion barrel oil reservoir has been discovered in Uganda's Western and Northwestern Albertine Graben. Minerals have also been found and are being sold off as concessions. If oil revenues start to be mobilized as currently planned (2016-17), significant changes in not only government finance but also in the governments' relationships with donors and in state–society relations are likely to occur. The consequences for local communities and the environment are also likely to be significant.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Oil, Natural Resources, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Michael W. Hansen
  • Publication Date: 02-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: If African developing countries are to benefit fully from the current boom in foreign direct investment (FDI) in extractives (i.e. mining and oil/gas), it is essential that the foreign investors foster linkages to the local economy. Traditionally, extractive FDI in Africa has been seen as the enclave economy par excellence, moving in with fully integrated value chains, extracting resources and exporting them as commodities having virtually no linkages to the local economy. However, new opportunities for promoting linkages are offered by changing business strategies of local African enterprises as well as foreign multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs in extractives are increasingly seeking local linkages as part of their efficiency, risk, and asset-seeking strategies, and linkage programmes are becoming integral elements in many MNCs' corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. At the same time, local African enterprises are eager to, and increasingly capable of, linking up to the foreign investors in order to expand their activities and acquire technology, skills and market access. The changing strategies of MNCs and the improving capabilities of African enterprises offer new opportunities for governments and donors to mobilize extractive FDI for development goals. This paper seeks to take stock of what we know about the state of and driving forces of linkage formation in South Sahel Africa extractives based on a review of the extant literature. The paper argues that while MNCs and local enterprises by themselves will indeed produce linkages, the scope, depth and development impacts of linkages eventually depend on government intervention. Resource-rich African countries' governments are aware of this and linkage promotion is increasingly becoming a key element in their industrialization strategies. A main point of the paper is that the choice between different linkage policies and approaches should be informed by a firm understanding of the workings of the private sector as well as the political and institutional capacity of host governments to adopt and implement linkage policies and approaches.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Anne Sofie Westh Olsen
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Mobility is a resource and a privilege that is unevenly distributed between countries, and within countries. People from developing countries depend on visas and residence permits to a larger extent than citizens of the developed world. Most migration policy research determines the inequality of mobility mainly as a consequence of restrictive immigration policies in destination countries. The focus of this paper is instead on the limited access order that has led to unequal access to migration between people from an African sending country, which has been largely overlooked. This paper shows the historical emergence of a migration divide between intercontinental and intra-African migrants. Through a historical analysis, the paper under-lines how academic migration to France became a means to social mobility in Burkina Faso after independence, while today there is a breakdown of the social elevator via migration since preferential access to migration is likely to enhance the divide between rich and poor.
  • Topic: Economics, Migration, Poverty, Social Stratification, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa, France
  • Author: Lars Buur
  • Publication Date: 03-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores linkage creation in Mozambique related to mega-projects in natural resource extraction and development from a political economy perspective. It explores through a focus on linkage development related to extractive industries in Mozambique the 'best practice' attempts between commodity producers and local content providers. The paper argues that a relatively elaborate state organizational and institutional setup based on policies, strategies and units with funding tools has emerged over time in order to begin to reap the benefits of large-scale investments in the extractive sectors. However, despite the formal acknowledgement, very little has been achieved with regard to forward and backward linkages, state institutions are often despite the official government rhetoric of importance simply bypassed not only by foreign investors, but also by the political leadership.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Rachel Spichiger, Edna Kabala
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Land, and in particular agricultural land, is central to livelhoods in rural Zambia. Zambia is characterised by a dual legal system of customary and statutory law and by dual land tenure, with state land and customary land. A first wave of socialist-oriented reforms took place after independence in 1964, which abolished previously existing freehold land in favour of leasehold. Subsequent changes in government policies under the influence of structural adjustment programmes and a new government in 1991 paved the way for a market-driven land reform. The 1995 Lands Act introduced the privatization of land in Zambia and provided for the conversion of customary into state land, with the hope of attracting investors. However, the Act has been unevenly implemented, at least in rural areas, in part due to problems plaguing the land administration institutions and their work, in part due to opposition to the main tenets of the Act from chiefs, the population and civil society. Civil society, with donor support, calls for more attention towards women's precarious situations with regard to access to and ownership of land under customary tenure, but it still expresses a desire for customary tenure to remain. However, civil society also recognizes that customary practices are often also discriminatory towards women who depend on male relatives for access to land.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explains the differences in ruling elite support for the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda. Although production in Uganda has not generally been promoted in any sustained way, ruling elites have to varying degrees supported the dairy and fisheries sectors. The paper shows that the ruling elite initially supported the fishing industry because of industry pressure. They have failed to enforce fisheries management because there are big political costs associated with such enforcement. The dairy sector in the southwestern milk region was initially supported because the ruling elite wanted to build a coalition of support in this region. Coming from the region himself, the president had a keen interest in dairy cattle. The sector was subsequently regulated because the biggest processor put pressure on the ruling elite to do so. Even when the ruling coalition is fragmented, promoting production is possible if there is strong industry pressure and when the initiatives to promote the sector are also seen to help build or maintain the ruling coalition.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Poverty, Social Stratification
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Social Stratification
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Europe
  • Author: Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Tom Mwebaze
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The dairy sector is one of the only agricultural sectors in Uganda that has enjoyed sustained high growth since the late 1980s. Milk and the cold dairy chain developed especially in the south-western part of the country. This paper explains why this is so by the sector's relation to the ruling coalition. We argue that the dairy sector was relatively successful because the south-western based ruling elite wanted to build a support base in its home area. In addition, the elite had a special interest in dairy since key elite members owned dairy cattle themselves. As milk production grew, the ruling elite wanted to regulate the sector as this would help the big processor, the state owned and later privatized Dairy Corporation. Regulation was relatively successful and a pocket of bureaucratic efficiency was established in an agency called the Dairy Development Authority. The reason why regulation was enforced to a considerable extent was the organization of dairy farmers and traders and the bargaining and compromise with the Dairy Development Authority this organization of industry actors enabled.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Government, Infrastructure
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield, Niels Fold
  • Publication Date: 02-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores what can be learned about the development of a productive sector and the factors that affect the process of upgrading and innovation, through a comparative assessment of the experiences of Malaysia and Ghana in the palm oil sector. The purpose is not to carry out a direct comparison of the trajectories of the sectors in the two countries, which would serve only to emphasize the failures in the 'construction' of the palm industry in Ghana. Rather, the role of context must be acknowledged, such that learning starts with understanding key points in the industries' trajectories that either break or accelerate path dependency. Thus, the paper focuses on the differing contextual factors and initial conditions, and how they shaped early divergent paths and industry structures, as well as the presence or absence of factors supporting expansion and diversification within each country's trajectory.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Malaysia
  • Author: Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh
  • Publication Date: 03-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its leader, Yoweri Museveni, came to power, they had an explicit agenda of industrializing the economy (Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009). Improved infrastructure and increased production and productivity were the focus. Indeed, Uganda enjoyed a period of sustained economic growth of about 7 percent annually between 1990 and 2006 (Piron and Norton, 2004; Kjær and Muhumuza, 2009), made possible by a stable ruling coalition, macro-economic stability, low inflation (until recently), and relative peace. Poverty declined from 56 percent in 1991 to 25 percent in 20101 However, there has been limited structural transformation in terms of a shift from agriculture to industry. A number of explanations for this could be put forward, whether institutional, policy-oriented or geographical (Selassie, 2008; van de Walle, 2001). None of them, however, explains fully how Uganda, in spite of an initially highly dedicated ruling elite, did not succeed in transforming its economy. For example, Uganda is a landlocked country, but so is Zimbabwe, which is far more industrialized. Similarly, while Uganda certainly has weak institutions, so did other countries that have succeeded in industrializing (Selassie, 2008).
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Post Colonialism
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Zimbabwe
  • Author: José Jaime Macuane
  • Publication Date: 09-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Discussion of development strategies in Mozambique reveals three main perspectives on the role of elites in the policy process: donor dominance, political dominance over technocracy, and the emergence of non-state (economic and civil society) actors as players in the policy process, although still with a marginal role. These analyses tend to see the identity of these actors as monolithic and clearly identifiable. The identities condition the involvement of these actors in a set of dichotomous relations, such as politicians versus technocrats, donors versus internal actors, and state versus non-state actors. Based on this understanding, this paper analyses the role of elites in policy processes, focusing on elite formation and power relations in Mozambique in a context of an economically dependent country undergoing democratization. The paper shows that the dominant analyses of the role of the elites in the policy process in Mozambique overlook the process of elite formation, which contributes to the existence of multiple and overlapping elite identities in the policy process. In this regard, the paper concludes that, despite the emergence of new elites (economic, societal and bureaucratic) resulting from economic and political liberalization and as an aspect of pro-poor policies, the differentiation between these elitesis more apparent than real because of the strategies they have adopted to maintain their dominance in a context of the increasing importance of electoral politics. Further, the paper concludes that the political elite still dominates the process, even with donor dependence, but that nonetheless this dominance is being challenged by an erosion of legitimacy caused by the low effectiveness of the development strategies, reflected in increasing public contestation over government policies, which opens up a space for changes in the current pattern of elite relations.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Michael Kidoido, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Rachel Spichiger, Sarah Alobo
  • Publication Date: 11-2012
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Land is an important asset for people's livelihoods and for economic development in Uganda, where the majority of people live in rural areas. This working paper reviews the literature on Uganda's tenure systems and their relationship with economic activities, focusing primarily on rural agricultural land. The review illustrates that these relationships are complex and context-dependent.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, Law
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Erik Beukel
  • Publication Date: 02-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Sino-Japanese relationship is a highly complex one, marked both by Japan's aggressive wars from the 1930s on and the present economic interdependence between the two countries. Focusing on the role of the territorial conflict in the East China Sea, this DIIS Report considers how China's leaders handle anti-Japanese nationalism by adopting a Janusian stance and pursuing both China's basic interest in close economic relations with Japan and also domestic stability. After a review of Chinese and Japanese sovereignty claims in the area and of the rise of nationalism since the early 1980s, four crises over the East China Sea are examined to identify the character of and changes in China's policy. For the last ten years China's leaders have attempted to conduct a more pragmatic policy towards Japan and evade the pernicious shadow of history. But this policy faces critical problems both in a growing popular nationalism in China and in the Japanese government's lack of willingness to restrain their own nationalists and the absence of legal possibilities for them to do so.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Japan, China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Jakob Vestergaard
  • Publication Date: 04-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The voice reform process originated in the Monterrey Consensus, which was articulated at the United Nations International Conference on Financing for Development held in Monterrey on 22 March 2002. For several years after the Monterrey Consensus, progress in deliberations on voice reform in the governing bodies of the World Bank was modest. But the global economic crisis raised the urgency of reforming the Bretton Woods institutions in the eyes of most countries and the creation of a G20 Leaders Forum gave further impetus to the voice reform process.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Affairs, World Bank
  • Political Geography: United Nations
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 06-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: For the sake of less developed countries, it is time to adjust the discourses of international development assistance on poverty reduction. This article attempts to do so by reviewing new and old literature explaining why some countries are rich and others are poor. History has repeatedly shown that the single most important thing that distinguished rich countries from poor ones is basically their higher capabilities in manufacturing. We have to shift the discussion about ending world poverty back to one about structural transformation of the economy and increasing technological capabilities.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Poverty
  • Author: Lars Buur, Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 10-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Through a comparison of sector cases in Mozambique and Ghana, the paper analyzes why and how African states engage in developing productive sectors and with what success. It argues that successful state interventions depend on four factors: (1) sustained political support by the government leadership; (2) the existence of an embedded and mediating bureaucracy; (3) changing the 'rules of the game' which govern the distribution of economic benefits and resources; and (4) the organisation of industry actors and institutionalised interaction between industry actors and state actors.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Jose Brambila-Macias, Isabella Massa, Matthew J. Salois
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In this paper, we use a mixed-effects trade gravity model on a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990-2007 to assess the impact of trade finance and foreign aid on bilateral export flows. In addition to traditional variables, we also include a banking crises variable and a global economic downturns variable among the regressors. Differences across developing regions are taken into account. Our results suggest that: (i) trade finance has a positive and significant impact on bilateral export flows in all developing regions except Latin America; (ii) foreign aid matters in all regions; (iii) global economic downturns exert a negative and significant impact on export flows in all developing countries, and especially in Latin American and Sub-Saharan African economies; (iv) banking crises appear to have no significant impact in most developing regions.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Aid, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa, Latin America
  • Author: Ole Therkildsen
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Tanzania's 2005 push to increase rice production by ambitious rural investments in irrigation and by tariff protection of its rice industry from cheap imported subsidised rice has apparently highlevel political support. Yet, the implementation has run into problems: non-compliance with the tariff, substantial smuggling of cheap rice through Zanzibar, and low sustainability of irrigation schemes due to poor local-level operation and maintenance.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Food
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Peter Gibbon, Henrik Nielsen
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report reviews international experiences with pro-poor development assistance to export sectors. Such support has become more common in the last decade and a half, following the emergence of widespread consensus amongst policymakers that export growth can be a key poverty reduction mechanism – since it should increase both national income and formal employment. This contributes to poverty reduction directly through increased employment and indirectly through creating additional resources for governments to pursue pro-poor policies. Nevertheless, policymakers normally also agree that some types of export growth are more (potentially) pro-poor than others, especially but not only in their employment effects. It is initiatives to respond to this challenge that will be treated in this report.
  • Topic: Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Paul Masson, Mansoor Dailami
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: As the second decade of the 21st century unfolds, the growing clout of emerging markets is paving the way for a world economy with an increasingly multipolar character. The distribution of global growth will become more diffuse, with no single country dominating the global economic scene or even the global security agenda.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Ghana has exhibited rather strong economic growth since the 1980s, but little transformation of the productive structure of its economy. The paper argues that ruling elites' policy choices are shaped by their political survival strategies. In turn, these strategies are shaped by (1) the characteristics of the ruling coalitions, which include a high degree of vulnerability in power, strong lower-level factions of the ruling coalition, and a substantial amount of fragmentation among the higher factions of the ruling coalition; (2) the weak capabilities and political influence of the nascent productive capitalists; and (3) easy access to financing for the state and the ruling coalition from foreign aid, mining and cocoa bean exports. As a result, ruling elites' policy actions did not prioritize the development of new productive sectors (or upgrading of old ones), but were geared towards delivering benefits to the higher and lower levels of the ruling coalition, as well as delivering a small amount of visible goods and services to as much of the population as possible in an effort to 'swing' voters their way at election time. Neither of these political survival strategies resulted in significant productive sector investments.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Since the Fourth Republic was inaugurated in 1993, politics in Ghana has been increasingly characterized by competitive clientelism. Ruling coalitions are characterized by a high degree of vulnerability in power due to a strong opposition party, by strong lower-level factions within the ruling coalition due to their importance in winning elections, and by a high degree of fragmentation among the ruling elite. These characteristics, combined with a weak domestic capitalist class and high inflows of foreign aid, have led the ruling elites across political parties to pursue and implement policies that have a short time horizon, that do not significantly shift the allocation of resources towards building productive sectors, and which are often plagued by problems of enforcement. The results have led to growth without economic transformation. In particular, the country has witnessed recurrent macroeconomic instability, a haphazard process of privatization of state-owned enterprises, and no serious attempt to build up productive sectors outside of cocoa and gold.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The nascent Ghanaian horticulture export sector, which emerged in the mid-1980s, has been ignored by ruling elites, especially after the return to multiparty democracy in 1993. Ruling elites across the two party governments between 1993 and 2008 did not actively pursue initiatives to support the industry. Without sustained political support, the types of public-private coordination of actions and investments needed to help the sector expand and upgrade were not forthcoming in an effective and timely manner. This private sector-driven non-traditional export sector constitutes a neglected opportunity for export diversification and building a new agro-industry, and also highlights some of the factors explaining why the country's economy was still dependent on the traditional exports of cocoa and gold by the close of the 2000s. The political challenges to changing the productive structure in Ghana can be found in the characteristics of ruling coalitions–vulnerability of the ruling elite in power, the high fragmentation within ruling coalitions, and their existing sources of and strategies for financing the state and the ruling coalition, combined with the country's existing economic structure as well as the size and capabilities of domestic capitalists. The characteristics of ruling coalitions in Ghana shaped the incentives facing ruling elites such that the ruling elites were not sufficiently compelled to support new productive sectors, such as horticulture export, which did not (yet) provide substantial revenues.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Social Stratification, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Peter Hansen
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines remittance and diaspora policy formation in Tanzania as cargo cult. Both migration-development policy formation and cargo cults express the belief in the miraculous transformation of the local by the arrival of wealth emanating from the outside. The paper is based on ethnographic research in Dares Salaam, and adds to our understanding of the links between migration and development in Tanzania, and to our understanding of the relationship between remittances and the state, where the underlying cultural values, ideas and imaginaries expressed in remittance policies and thinking have been ignored.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The economic policy agenda which promoted a non-interventionist state, trade openness, deregulation, liberalization and privatization as the formula for unleashing private sector productive forces in developing countries is discredited. The economic record of the past decades does not support this theory. Former proponents of the agenda acknowledge that the 'supply side' response of the private sector, especially in African countries, has not been what was expected in reaction to these economic reforms. Consensus is building on the need for industrial policy, and the debate is over what kinds of state interventions are likely to help build the private sector. Thus, the time is ripe for an evidence-based discussion of what is 'private sector development' in Africa, and how it promote it. In order to move the debate forward, we need more analyses of how actual existing industries are created, expanded and remain competitive in the contemporary global economic context.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Sam Jones
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper synthesizes findings from a range of studies presented at a recent conference on the financial crisis held at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). Focusing on low and lower-middle income countries, the studies explore the impacts, responses and initial lessons of the crisis. The complex and diverse nature of these impacts at both the aggregate and household levels are highlighted, as is the need to reconsider conventional policy advice. Considerations for future research directions are also presented.
  • Topic: Economics, Third World, Global Recession, Financial Crisis
  • Author: Sam Jones
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Careful consideration of the appropriate level and composition of aggregate public spending is vital in low income countries, especially in the presence of large volumes of foreign aid. Not only can expansion of the public sector weaken economic growth, but also provision of public services may be difficult to re­trench. These issues are relevant to Mozambique as the share of government in GDP already is comparatively high and strategic management of aggregate public spending historically has been weak. A new long-term macroeconomic model quantifies the implications of alternative aggregate spending profiles. It shows that small increases in minimum levels of government spending correspond to large increases in the duration to aid independence. Sharp reductions in aid availability would necessitate significant fiscal and economic adjustments, including cuts in real public spending per capita. For this reason, there is no room for complacency as regards the future of development finance to Mozambique.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, International Political Economy, Poverty, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Sam Jones, Peter Gibbon, Yumiao Lin
  • Publication Date: 04-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the revenue effects of certified organic contract farming and of use of organic farming methods in a tropical African context. These are compared with 'organic by default' conventional farming systems without contractual relations. Survey data from a medium-size cocoa-vanilla contract farming scheme in Uganda is reported using a standard OLS regression and propensity score matching approaches. The analysis finds that there are positive revenue effects for the certified crops from both participation and, more modestly, from using organic farming techniques.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Lasse Folke Henriksen
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: DIIS Working Paper reviews a recent influential branch within the Social Studies of Finance literature which asserts that financial markets are embedded in economics rather than in society (as scholars of the New Economic Sociology would have it). Coming from actor-network theory, the literature contributes conceptually to an extended ontology of markets and agency and empirically to an improved understanding of the importance of economist's role in constructing markets and assembling economic agency. It also draws attention to the staggering effects that material devices and technical 'details' can potentially have on the macrodynamics of financial markets. In some cases financial markets can even be performed by economics, that is, materialized in very close accordance with the economic models that describe them. From this insight they conclude that economics is a performative science and that the social sciences should consequently break down the Great (analytical) Divide between finance the- ory and financial markets.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Theory
  • Political Geography: Greece
  • Author: Lone Riisgaard
  • Publication Date: 06-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Sustainability initiatives have proliferated in many industries in recent years. This has led to a plethora of standards that exist in parallel to each other seeking to address more or less the same social and environmental issues. Sustainability standards are not neutral tools but institutional mechanisms that differ in the way they seek to implement their objectives and in the impact they have on intended beneficiaries and other value chain actors. In this paper I explore the emergence of multiple standards seeking to regulate the social conditions in the production of cut flowers aimed at the EU market. I investigate developments in the focus and function of these standards and the effect of standards and standard harmonization attempts on the terms of competition in the cut flower value chain. The analysis shows that the harmonization of flower standards has a potential to 'lift the standard bar' by transforming risk management standards into product differ-entiation standards. The paper also shows how the market for standards can shape competition in the market for flowers by altering the terms of participation in the growing market segment for 'sustainable' flowers. Through the new standard harmonization initiative Fair Flowers Fair Plants, Dutch growers are now able to compete in the market for socially labelled flowers which before was restricted to Southern producers.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Dennis Rweyemamu
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Tanzania's current growth and poverty reduction strategies are contained in its second PRSP. This document, and the processes leading to its formulation, has helped to mobilize donor funds. However, the content of the PRSP is largely irrelevant for implementation, and has contributed little to better inter-sectoral linkages and synergies both of which were its main purposes. The immediate reasons for this irrelevancy include a participatory planning process not aligned with the domestic political process and with no budget constraints which led to a shopping list of un-prioritized initiatives; an implementation machinery around the budget process which in practice does not ensure that resources are allocated in line with the document's priorities; and limited understanding and/ or acceptance across the spectrum of government institutions and political leadership that the PRSP is the overall strategic guiding document.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Poverty, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 09-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper describes and explains the impact of the international-driven 'New Poverty Agenda' in Ghana, focusing on the impact of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) adopted by the New Patriotic Party government in power from 2001 until 2008. The paper argues that the New Poverty Agenda has had some impacts, but not they have been limited and not necessarily helpful in achieving long term poverty reduction. The PRSP was seen by the government in Ghana as necessary to secure debt relief and donor resources, and the strategies produced by the government contained broad objectives rather than concrete strategies on how to achieve those objectives and thus had little impact on government actions. The paper discusses what was actually implemented under the NPP government and the factors influencing those actions. It highlights the constraints Ghanaian governments face in pursuing economic transformation within contemporary domestic and international contexts.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Jørgen Estrup
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Support for private sector development is an important item on the ODA budgets of most donor countries and recently, there has even been an upsurge in the weight given to 'private sector led growth'. In this working paper, Jørgen Estrup, an independent senior adviser with comprehensive experience in aid programmes supporting the private sector in developing countries, provides an overview of recent trends in donor support to private sector development. The paper goes through the history of and rationale for support to the private sector, and it identifies a number of distinct approaches to the subject. Moreover, the paper discusses these approaches in the context of the Paris Declaration and notes a conspicuous lack of coherence between the approaches to private sector development and the principles of the Declaration.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Paris
  • Author: Peter Hansen
  • Publication Date: 10-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the role of the mild stimulant khat in the economic and political transformation of the independent, yet internationally unrecognized Republic of Somaliland. Rather than seeing khat as a hindrance for nation-state formation and as a developmental problem, the paper argues that khat has been important to the economic viability of Somaliland and to the formation of political practices and identities. In this sense, khat should be seen not only as a drug contributing to violence, state failure and inadequate development, but also as underpinning economic processes, political identities and societal structures that have been crucial to the formation and political success of Somaliland. The paper adds to our understanding of the links between emerging political and economic orders in a post-conflict society.
  • Topic: Economics, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Narcotics Trafficking, Fragile/Failed State
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Jonathan Goodhand
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores the linkages between the drugs economy, borderlands and 'post conflict' state-building in Afghanistan. It does this through a fine grained historical analysis of Sheghnan, a remote district on the Afghan-Tajik border in the north-east. The paper charts the opening and closing of the border; the movement of people, commodities and ideas across the border; the effects of changing political regimes; the role of resources and their effects on local governance; and the complex, multifaceted networks that span the border and are involved in the drugs trade. The paper argues that the drugs economy has been an important part of the story of borderland transformation in Sheghnan. Because of drugs, borderlands are no longer marginal, but have become a resource to be exploited by the centre. As such the paper argues that examining the frontier may throw light on processes of state formation, state collapse and 'post conflict' state-building. A focus on borderlands means taking seriously the 'politics of place' and examining the diffuse dynamics and localised projects that feed into and shape processes of state formation.
  • Topic: Cold War, Economics, War, Narcotics Trafficking
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Lars Buur, Obede Suarte Baloi
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the seemingly uncontroversial public life of the PRSP approach in Mozambique and suggests that it embodies much of the Frelimo government's thinking about development since independence, though obviously 'packaged' to fit international donor discourses as they continually change. The PRSP is therefore not an outright 'imposition' on the Frelimo government or necessarily a 'challenge' to its sovereignty, as it is often argued. In general we argue that the PRSP became over time a broad 'consensus document' because it came to potentially incorporate 'all' stakeholders needs and wishes. We argue that after the political turbulence of the 1980s and 1990s with privatisation and structural adjustments, the PRSP allowed for different elite groups to find common ground with regard to ideological and party-preserving concerns, as social and market-economic trade-offs could now be legitimately accommodated.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Lone Riisgaard, Simon Bolwig, Stefano Ponte, Frank Matose, Andries du Toit, Niels Halberg
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper presents a strategic and practical guide for how to design and implement action research in value chains in a way that integrates poverty, environmental and gender concerns. The focus is on small producers in developing countries and other weak chain actors such as small trading and processing firms.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, Gender Issues, Markets, Poverty
  • Author: Keith Hart
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: I explore here the dialectic of formal and informal economy in the context of 'development' discourse over the last four decades. It would not be hard, in post-colonial Africa for example, to conceive of this dialectic as a war waged by the bureaucracy on the people, allowing informal economic practices to be portrayed as a kind of democratic resistance. Yet, however much we might endorse the political value of self-organized economic activities, there are tasks of large-scale co-ordination for which bureaucracy is well-suited; and the institution's origins were closely linked to aspirations for political equality, even if historical experience has undermined that expectation. So the task is not only to find practical ways of harnessing the complementary potential of bureaucracy and informality, but also to advance thinking about their dialectical movement.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Johan Fischer
  • Publication Date: 11-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper explores Malaysia's bid to become the world leader in rapidly expanding halal (lawful or permitted) markets on a global scale. Over the last three decades, a powerful state nationalism has emerged, represented by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the dominant political party in Malaysia. The state has effectively certified standardised and bureaucratised Malaysian halal production, trade and consumption. Now, the vision is to export this model, and for that purpose the network as a strategic metaphor is being evoked to signify connectedness and prescriptions of organisation vis-à-vis more deep-rooted networks. Building on empirical material from research in Malaysia and Britain, I shall show how networks are understood and practised in a metaphorical sense.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: Britain, Malaysia, Asia
  • Author: Tina Maria Jensen
  • Publication Date: 12-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Despite several decades of development aid, economists generally agree that on average, most developing countries have experienced no or only little economic growth: while a limited number of countries particularly in South East Asia have experienced a rather significant growth, most African countries have had very limited or in some cases even negative economic growth. Only two of the 47 Sub-Saharan African countries, Botswana and Equatorial Guinea – both low in population – have reached annual growth rates of 7% over the last 15 years, while only nine countries have managed a growth rate above 2%. Moreover, 21 of the African countries have experienced negative growth, while on a global scale, just five countries have reached an annual growth rate of 7 % or more over a 15 year period (1985-2000) (Clemens et al. 2004:9-10).
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Søren Hvalkof
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This working paper summarizes the discussions and findings of a recent study of the impacts of contemporary land privatization processes and individual titling programs affecting indigenous communities in Latin America, with particular emphasis on indigenous economies and production systems. The study was informed by case studies from Peru, Bolivia and Honduras and Mexico, with the main focus on the indigenous peasant societies of the highlands, where individualization schemes apply. The neoliberal policies of the 1990s promoted market based legal and administrative reforms, with a strong emphasis on developing a dynamic land market that would eventually have an impact on indigenous communal land tenure systems, whether they were the direct target or not. From the present study it can be seen that there are significant contradictions between indigenous communal land arrangements and tenure systems, and the market-based land and agricultural policy reforms being promoted by the multilateral donor agencies. In the conventional economic development discourse land tenure security is considered a prerequisite for economic growth. The study shows, however, that in relation to indigenous communities the question of tenure security is much more complex and closely related to the security of social reproduction, safeguarding of communal control and of the communal decision-making authority. It shows that privatization and individualization of land tenure per se has not generated the expected results.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Ethnic Conflict
  • Political Geography: Latin America
  • Author: Nanna Hvidt, Hans Mouritzen
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This is an outline of Danish foreign policy 2006 provided by the Permanent Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. Throughout 2006, developments caused by globalisation posed huge challenges to Denmark. The cartoons crisis and the conflict in Lebanon were the most obvious ones. Confronted with these challenges, Denmark managed to pursue a pro-active foreign policy. Interrelated issues such as energy security, climate change, failed states and weapons of mass destruction became increasingly important. These issues must be addressed with different instruments ranging from diplomacy and multilateral cooperation to trade policy and development cooperation. They illustrate the need for new tools in foreign policy such as public diplomacy, which has gained further importance in the globalised and network-based system of international relations. In addition, the need for horizontal coordination has increased. The Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a major globalisation study in 2006, recommending how Denmark can cope with the challenges of globalisation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Denmark
  • Author: Lone Riisgaard
  • Publication Date: 08-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Export of cut flowers from East Africa to Europe is an example of how tightened quality regulations and increasing concern with social and environmental issues have created a highly codified industry. For producers participating in value chains driven by large retailers, adopting social and environmental standards is a requirement and specificities are dictated by the buyers. In this paper focus is on private social standards and the opportunities and challenges they pose for labour organizations, especially trade unions. By incorporating the concept of labour agency, global value chain analysis is widened to encompass not just industrial development but also labour development.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, East Africa
  • Author: Poul Ove Pedersen
  • Publication Date: 07-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The purpose of this paper is first to discuss the paradox that freight transport, which so clearly is an important prerequisite for the processes of regional development and economic internationalisation and globalisation, since the 1970s has almost vanished from mainstream economic geography and development studies, and is most often hardly mentioned in studies of international industrial development and global commodity or value chains. Secondly, the paper discusses the consequences of leaving freight transport out of the value chain analyses and argues that it has had serious consequences for economic development especially in the peripheral parts of the world, not least in Africa, and for our understanding of rural poverty.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Globalization, Third World
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Helle Munk Ravnborg, Mette Gervin Damsgaard, Kim Raben
  • Publication Date: 06-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The emergence of the concept of payment for ecosystem services during the late 1990s has raised expectations among rural natural resource managers, local and national authorities, public utilities and donor organizations alike, that ecosystem conservation can be achieved through popular payments rather than through unpopular measures of command and control.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Environment
  • Author: Evelyne Lazaro, Adam Akyoo
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The fall in the agricultural sector's contribution to Tanzanian export earnings since the early 1990s has increased attention toward new crops with the potential of supplementing the country's traditional export crops. Particular attention has been focused upon identifying crops enjoying price stability, high demand elasticity and low substitutability. Spices fall into this category. Consequently there have been efforts by public agencies and private exporters, both on the mainland and on Zanzibar, to promote the crop. However, access to high value export markets raises issues of supply chain dynamics and conformity with international standards. This paper focuses upon the recent history of the spice industry in Tanzania with reference to these issues. The main conclusions are that Certified Organic standards are the only international standards complied with, and that a very loosely coordinated chain exists alongside a more coordinated one. Macro- and micro-institutional weaknesses need attention if the full potential of the sub-sector is to be realized.
  • Topic: Economics, Health, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zanzibar, Tanzania
  • Author: Ole Therkildsen, Ole Winckler Anderson
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Paris declaration of 2005 on aid effectiveness is now part of the international consensus. It holds that increased use of budget support combined with decentralised aid administration will lead to transaction costs reductions (through better donor harmonisation of aid) and to enhanced local ownership (through better alignment of donor policies and practices with those of recipients). Both improvements are assumed to enhance aid effectiveness.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Paris
  • Author: Simon Bolwig, Peter Gibbon
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper examines the relative profitability of certified organic and conventional farming operations in tropical Africa as well as differences between organic and conventional farmers in rates of adoption of farming practices and in household factor endowments. The paper is based on three surveys in Uganda of smallholder farmers of respectively, organic coffee, cocoa, and pineapple and of matching control groups of conventional farmers. Organic production was in all cases organised on a contract farming-type basis, in schemes operated by the firm exporting the organic product. The central conclusion from the study is that farms that engaged in certified organic export production were significantly more profitable in terms of net farm income earnings than those that engaged only in conventional production. This was the result of generally significant differences between organic and conventional farmers' gross farm incomes, although these differences were further amplified by differences in costs. Income differences related partly to differences between organic and conventional farmers' factor endowments. Preliminary analyses indicted that, among factor endowments, area under crops subject to organic certification (CSC) and numbers of CSC plants had the strongest relations to farmers' sales volume and incomes,. Labour availability and average age of CSC plants had a much lower level of importance. As for other factors, yields were strongly related to sales volumes, but average price received was of lesser importance. The precise relative contribution of these different factors to sales volumes and incomes remains to be established in a further paper, however. The results for average net income also show enormous differences in profitability between organic farmers of different cash crops, with pineapple farmers earning three and five times more than cocoa and coffee farmers, respectively. It is worth underlining that, in contrast to the experience in developed countries, we found that organic conversion in tropical Africa is associated with increases rather than reductions in yield, which relates to the low-input characteristics of conventional farming on the continent. Focus group interviews suggest that organic farmers enjoyed higher yields due to more effective farm management technique, but the survey results on rates of adoption of yield-enhancing farming practices could not verify this.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Kim Raben, Michael Kidoido, David Loserian, Johnson Nyingi, Zarupa Akello
  • Publication Date: 01-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Tropical forests are characterised by stakeholders with multiple and often conflicting interests. This paper identifies and analyses local stakeholders in the Participatory Environmental Management (PEMA) programme in the Kasyoha-Kitomi forest landscape in Uganda and the South Nguru forest landscape in Tanzania. The overall objective of the PEMA programme is to pilot and promote an approach to the management of natural resources in two high-biodiversity Forest Reserves and surrounding landscapes that reconciles the conservation and development interests of multiple stakeholders at local, national and international levels. The Danish Institute for International Studies had as one of its task to carry out an analysis of local stakeholders i.e. the rural people in the forest landscapes, who directly or indirectly benefit from services provided by the forests. The image of stakeholders and interests in forest management is complex and stakeholder analysis provides a means to start understanding it. Based on the stakeholder identification methodology (Ravnborg and Westermann 2002) the paper investigates stakeholders and the interdependencies among them with regard to the management of natural resources. Point of departure is taken in individuals’ interests, and previous and current uses of services provided by the Kasyoha-Kitomi Forest Reserve and Nguru South Forest Reserve are documented. These services are for instance the provision of agricultural land, wood products, NTFP, hunting, fishing, grazing and the less tangible services such as climate regulation, water quantity and quality. Where possible, interests are distinguished according to social groups. It is concluded that local inhabitants’ stakes in the forest reserves are determined by their access to technology, capital, markets, skills, as well as their locality, gender, age, ethnicity and (lack of) alternative livelihood strategies. In addition, the context of inter-related demographic and socio-economic processes that influence patterns of resource use and determine (and change) local inhabitants’ interests in and use of the forests are described and conflicting interests and interdependencies identified. The stakeholder analysis provides a start to understanding the complex picture of interests attached to the forests and the potential for involving local stakeholders in the PEMA programme. The paper concludes, among other things, that activities such as cultivation within the forest reserves, labouring in logging activities, collection of material for thatch and sambu oil seeds are mainly the interests of the poor local inhabitants. Findings from both forest landscapes show that NTFP such as weaving and thatch material constitute important sources of income for the local inhabitants including the poor and should thus be considered when negotiating use rights to resources in the forest reserve. In general, it is recommended that profound attention is given in the PEMA programme to improving the local stakeholders’ access rights to the forest reserves and not just meet the interests of more powerful non-local stakeholders
  • Topic: Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa, Tanzania, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Stefano Ponte, Lisa Ann Richey
  • Publication Date: 09-2006
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Bono's launch of Product (RED)™ at Davos in 2006 marks the opening of a new frontier for development aid. The advent of 'Brand Aid' explicitly linked to commerce, not philanthropy, reconfigures the modalities of international development assistance. American Express, Gap, Converse and Armani represent the faces of ethical intervention in the world, as customers are encouraged to do good by dressing well. Consumption, trade and aid wed dying Africans with designer goods, as a new social contract is created to generate a sustainable flow of money to support The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Aid celebrities – the bard, the teacher and the healer – guarantee the 'cool quotient,' the management and the target of this new modality. Bono is the rock-star who led his fans to believe that they could solve Africa's problems of AIDS and poverty. Jeffrey Sachs is the recently-radicalized economist who masterminded The Global Fund. And Paul Farmer is the physician who convinced the world that treatment of AIDS was possible in even the poorest communities. The consumer's signification of status through designer RED products does not represent the exploitation of the most downtrodden – it actually helps them. 'Brand Aid' creates a world where it is possible to have as much as you want without depriving anyone else. Promoted as new leftist development chic, compassionate consumption effectively de-links the relations of capitalist production from AIDS and poverty.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Humanitarian Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, America