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  • Author: Jose Brambila-Macias, Isabella Massa, Matthew J. Salois
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In this paper, we use a mixed-effects trade gravity model on a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990-2007 to assess the impact of trade finance and foreign aid on bilateral export flows. In addition to traditional variables, we also include a banking crises variable and a global economic downturns variable among the regressors. Differences across developing regions are taken into account. Our results suggest that: (i) trade finance has a positive and significant impact on bilateral export flows in all developing regions except Latin America; (ii) foreign aid matters in all regions; (iii) global economic downturns exert a negative and significant impact on export flows in all developing countries, and especially in Latin American and Sub-Saharan African economies; (iv) banking crises appear to have no significant impact in most developing regions.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Aid, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa, Latin America
  • Author: Peter Gibbon
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The paper's background is a revival of the historically dominant narrative on the large-scale and plantation farming (LSF and PF) in Africa, in reaction to the contemporary phenomenon of 'land grabbing'. The historical antecedents of this narrative are examined and its central contentions – that features including low productivity and limited employment generation normally, if not intrinsically characterize LSF and PF – are problematized. This is undertaken on the basis of comprehensive reviews of the historical and contemporary literatures on African LSF and PF farming and labour control systems.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Political Economy, Territorial Disputes, Food
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Ole Therkildsen
  • Publication Date: 11-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Tanzania's 2005 push to increase rice production by ambitious rural investments in irrigation and by tariff protection of its rice industry from cheap imported subsidised rice has apparently highlevel political support. Yet, the implementation has run into problems: non-compliance with the tariff, substantial smuggling of cheap rice through Zanzibar, and low sustainability of irrigation schemes due to poor local-level operation and maintenance.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, Food
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Peter Gibbon, Henrik Nielsen
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This report reviews international experiences with pro-poor development assistance to export sectors. Such support has become more common in the last decade and a half, following the emergence of widespread consensus amongst policymakers that export growth can be a key poverty reduction mechanism – since it should increase both national income and formal employment. This contributes to poverty reduction directly through increased employment and indirectly through creating additional resources for governments to pursue pro-poor policies. Nevertheless, policymakers normally also agree that some types of export growth are more (potentially) pro-poor than others, especially but not only in their employment effects. It is initiatives to respond to this challenge that will be treated in this report.
  • Topic: Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Ghana has exhibited rather strong economic growth since the 1980s, but little transformation of the productive structure of its economy. The paper argues that ruling elites' policy choices are shaped by their political survival strategies. In turn, these strategies are shaped by (1) the characteristics of the ruling coalitions, which include a high degree of vulnerability in power, strong lower-level factions of the ruling coalition, and a substantial amount of fragmentation among the higher factions of the ruling coalition; (2) the weak capabilities and political influence of the nascent productive capitalists; and (3) easy access to financing for the state and the ruling coalition from foreign aid, mining and cocoa bean exports. As a result, ruling elites' policy actions did not prioritize the development of new productive sectors (or upgrading of old ones), but were geared towards delivering benefits to the higher and lower levels of the ruling coalition, as well as delivering a small amount of visible goods and services to as much of the population as possible in an effort to 'swing' voters their way at election time. Neither of these political survival strategies resulted in significant productive sector investments.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Since the Fourth Republic was inaugurated in 1993, politics in Ghana has been increasingly characterized by competitive clientelism. Ruling coalitions are characterized by a high degree of vulnerability in power due to a strong opposition party, by strong lower-level factions within the ruling coalition due to their importance in winning elections, and by a high degree of fragmentation among the ruling elite. These characteristics, combined with a weak domestic capitalist class and high inflows of foreign aid, have led the ruling elites across political parties to pursue and implement policies that have a short time horizon, that do not significantly shift the allocation of resources towards building productive sectors, and which are often plagued by problems of enforcement. The results have led to growth without economic transformation. In particular, the country has witnessed recurrent macroeconomic instability, a haphazard process of privatization of state-owned enterprises, and no serious attempt to build up productive sectors outside of cocoa and gold.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Economics, Politics, Social Stratification, Foreign Aid, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The nascent Ghanaian horticulture export sector, which emerged in the mid-1980s, has been ignored by ruling elites, especially after the return to multiparty democracy in 1993. Ruling elites across the two party governments between 1993 and 2008 did not actively pursue initiatives to support the industry. Without sustained political support, the types of public-private coordination of actions and investments needed to help the sector expand and upgrade were not forthcoming in an effective and timely manner. This private sector-driven non-traditional export sector constitutes a neglected opportunity for export diversification and building a new agro-industry, and also highlights some of the factors explaining why the country's economy was still dependent on the traditional exports of cocoa and gold by the close of the 2000s. The political challenges to changing the productive structure in Ghana can be found in the characteristics of ruling coalitions–vulnerability of the ruling elite in power, the high fragmentation within ruling coalitions, and their existing sources of and strategies for financing the state and the ruling coalition, combined with the country's existing economic structure as well as the size and capabilities of domestic capitalists. The characteristics of ruling coalitions in Ghana shaped the incentives facing ruling elites such that the ruling elites were not sufficiently compelled to support new productive sectors, such as horticulture export, which did not (yet) provide substantial revenues.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Social Stratification, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Nauja Kleist
  • Publication Date: 12-2011
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: In recent years, there has been a reconfiguration of the relationship between states and international migrants. From an overall perception of migration as a problem to be solved, a number of international development agencies, policy makers, and academics are taking the position that migration contributes to national development – if well managed. This aspiration indicates the (re-)discovery of non-resident citizens or former citizens as populations to be governed by their states of origin. The implications of this aspiration are examined in this working paper, focusing on migration-development scenarios in Ghana. The paper is inspired by anthropological and critical development studies on statecraft and public policy, approaching migration-development scenarios as a cultural and political object of study. Using the theatrical metaphor of scenario, it analyzes actually implemented policies as well as policy visions and debates, focusing on the underlying narratives and imaginaries of how migration and development are interlinked and can be governed.
  • Topic: Development, Government, Migration, Sovereignty, Labor Issues
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ghana
  • Author: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde, Moussa Djiré, Abdoulaye O. Cissé, Amadou Keita, Anna Traoré
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Recent years have witnessed an increasing focus on water as a source of conflict. So far, much of the focus has been on the risk for transboundary water conflicts. Our current knowledge on local water conflicts is however more limited, and tends to be based on sporadic accounts of local water conflicts rather than on systematic empirical evidence. At the same time, the extent and nature of local water cooperation is often overlooked, just as we know little about the particular role of the poorest in water conflict and cooperation.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Natural Resources
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mali
  • Author: Mikkel Funder, Carol Emma Mweemba, Imasiku Nyambe, Barbara Van Koppen
  • Publication Date: 06-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Recent years have witnessed an increasing focus on water as a source of conflict. So far, much of the focus has been on the risk for transboundary water conflicts. Our current knowledge on local water conflicts is however more limited, and tends to be based on sporadic accounts of local water conflicts rather than on systematic empirical evidence. At the same time, the extent and nature of local water cooperation is often overlooked, just as we know little about the particular role of the poorest in water conflict and cooperation.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Natural Resources, Water
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zambia
  • Author: Peter Hansen
  • Publication Date: 07-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines remittance and diaspora policy formation in Tanzania as cargo cult. Both migration-development policy formation and cargo cults express the belief in the miraculous transformation of the local by the arrival of wealth emanating from the outside. The paper is based on ethnographic research in Dares Salaam, and adds to our understanding of the links between migration and development in Tanzania, and to our understanding of the relationship between remittances and the state, where the underlying cultural values, ideas and imaginaries expressed in remittance policies and thinking have been ignored.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Helene Maria Kyed
  • Publication Date: 10-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Since the turn of the millennium 'Community Policing' has become a significant and widespread element of everyday policing in poor rural and urban areas of Mozambique. This development is not unique to Mozambique, but reflected globally. Community policing (CP) has since the 1990s enjoyed widespread popularity as a philosophy and strategy of 'democratic policing' that seeks to substitute centralised, paramilitary-style state policing with active citizen inclusion in policing. In Mozambique, councils of community policing members have been formed since 2001, with the purpose of reducing crime as well as making the state police more transparent and accountable to the public.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Corruption, Crime, Torture
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mozambique
  • Author: Lindsay Whitfield
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The economic policy agenda which promoted a non-interventionist state, trade openness, deregulation, liberalization and privatization as the formula for unleashing private sector productive forces in developing countries is discredited. The economic record of the past decades does not support this theory. Former proponents of the agenda acknowledge that the 'supply side' response of the private sector, especially in African countries, has not been what was expected in reaction to these economic reforms. Consensus is building on the need for industrial policy, and the debate is over what kinds of state interventions are likely to help build the private sector. Thus, the time is ripe for an evidence-based discussion of what is 'private sector development' in Africa, and how it promote it. In order to move the debate forward, we need more analyses of how actual existing industries are created, expanded and remain competitive in the contemporary global economic context.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Daniel Large, Luke Patey
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Sudan is at an important, historic moment. The upcoming referendum vote may very likely result in the South becoming an independent state. Since the landmark signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, China, and to a lesser extent India, have become even more important political and economic partners of the ruling National Congress Party in Khartoum. Generally, commentaries and studies covering China and India's relations with Sudan focus on their interactions with the central government in Khartoum. However, this paper finds that both have also followed a necessary hedging strategy by establishing quasi-diplomatic relations with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-run Government of Southern Sudan in Juba. Both have expanded economic and political relations beyond investment in Sudan's oil sector and beyond merely engaging Khartoum. Chinese and Indian engagement with the GOSS in Juba marks a major shift in policy from dealing exclusively with the central government. The adaptation of both to political developments, however, does not leave them invulnerable to present uncertainties revolving around Sudan's potential split. Due to its economic role in Sudan, China in particular is in a unique position to promote a peaceful transition.
  • Topic: Democratization, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Africa, China, Sudan, India
  • Author: Kasper Hoffmann
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to propose an analysis which discloses the various interdependencies that may exist between modes of objectifying the nation and the legitimacy of discursive strategies of nation-building in the context of a grave social conflict. The paper advances two interrelated arguments. Firstly, it argues that the order of conflict in the Congo is contingent on the strictly symbolic efficacy of myths of identity. Secondly it argues that the "charisma" of some of the country's "Big Men" is a related to what I call the democratization of sovereignty, and neither to their supposedly exceptional individual qualities nor to a specifically African "Big Man"-syndrome. I propose that while one must be critical of the Weberian notion of "charisma" as a sociological theory of prophecy, one can nonetheless use the notion of "charisma" as a tool to analyse symbolic properties that accrue to a specific individual and his followers, to the extent that they embody a subjectivity which is held as absolute by his, or their, proper discourse.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Peter Albrecht
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper discusses the uneasy role of chiefs within three cycles of security and justice reform in Sierra Leone during the past decade. Interaction has been indirect, by default or marginal, and always hesitant. This has been the case, even though chiefs constitute the most important governing institution in Sierra Leone's rural communities. One of the key tensions, I argue, has been the tendency to cast chiefs as state or non-state, respectively, or even as a hybrid between the two. However, as illustrated in this paper, while they are formally and discursively tied into a 'state system' in the Constitution and in legislation, they are subjected to limited oversight, and therefore govern in relative autonomy. A new program, designed in 2010, might help to transcend the state-non-state dichotomy and prepare the ground for a more productive way of engaging chiefs that do not fit into either a state or non-state category. This is done by focusing on which actors are actually providing security and justice, rather than who donors would prefer did it, i.e., the state.
  • Topic: Security, Law
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Morten Broberg
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Cotonou Agreement is the European Union's most important legal measure in the field of development assistance covering 79 developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP countries). It empowers the European Union to sanction 'serious cases of corruption' where this corruption is related to economic and sectoral policies and programmes to which the European Union is a significant financial partner. During the negotiations leading to the adoption of the Cotonou Agreement the ACP countries strongly objected to the inclusion of the possibility of sanctioning corruption. In practice the European Union has only sanctioned one single case of corruption under the provision, however. Whereas this does not necessarily mean that the sanctioning clause is without an impact, the fact that sanctions have been imposed in only one situation is a strong indication that its impact is rather limited. It is suggested that more effective means of preventing corruption are considered.
  • Topic: Corruption, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, Caribbean
  • Author: Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: A new wave of land reforms has passed Sub-Saharan African countries in recent years. Tanzania got its reform in 1999. Though expectations to outcomes are high, not much is known about how reforms affect local governance of land. This working paper provides an overview of implementation projects carried out in Mainland Tanzania and describes experiences gathered so far. It focuses on establishment of formal institutions for land administration and dispute settlement in rural areas. The implementation process is described as slow and uneven. With a few exceptions, implementation has been project-driven, largely controlled by donors and implementing agencies. At the same time the responsible ministry retains some control through its know-how, which is shared with other stakeholders in bits and pieces only. The paper concludes that more resources, more commitment and a freer flow of information is required if reform objectives are to be achieved. Independent research is urgently needed.
  • Topic: Development, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tanzania
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 02-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Piracy is an old problem which is now again attracting attention, mainly because of the surge of pirate attacks off the coasts of Somalia. Closer analysis shows the problem to be of quite modest proportions. The international naval protection of merchant shipping holds out some prospects of containing the problem, but it is most likely to solve itself. If international shipping opts for the route south of Africa, piracy will die out for a lack of targets. Maritime terrorism is, likewise, a problem of very limited proportions. It is often conflated with piracy, but there are significant differences between the two phenomena, the latter being undertaken for selfish reasons, the former for the sake of some higher cause. Whereas it is conceivable that maritime terrorists will gradually transform themselves into pirates, a transformation in the opposite direction is well Nigh inconceivable. Besides the analysis of these two phenomena, the overlap between them and certain naval strategies are also briefly touched upon.
  • Topic: Security, Crime, International Law, International Security
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Bjørn Møller
  • Publication Date: 03-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Somalia has been without a functioning state ever since 1991, when the former dictator, Siyad Barre, was overthrown. None of the competing factions were strong enough to take his place as ruler of the country, producing first chaos, but gradually a form of stateless order. The international interventions have ever since the failed, and counter-productive intervention by the United Nations and the United States in the early 1990 exacerbated rather than mitigated the problems, let alone solved them. This was especially the case for the Ethiopian invasion (December 2006-January 2009), which produced utter chaos and a severe humanitarian crisis. Since the withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces, Islamist extremist militias have been establishing control of Somalia, and they may or may not be able to maintain this control. If they pursue their radical programme of Islamisation, their reign is likely to be short, but if they moderate themselves they may retain control.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Somalia