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  • Author: Giovanni Grevi
  • Publication Date: 05-2013
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The international system is changing fast and both the European Union and Brazil will need to adapt. This paper argues that such a process of adjustment may bring the two closer together, even if their starting points differ considerably. Europe looks at the ongoing redistribution of power as a challenge, Brazil as an opportunity. Europe is coping with the detrimental impact of the economic crisis on its international profile; Brazil is enhancing its influence in its region and beyond. Their normative outlook is broadly compatible; their political priorities and behaviour in multilateral frameworks often differ, from trade to development and security issues. Despite the crisis, however, there are signals of renewed engagement by the EU on the international stage, with a focus on its troubled neighbourhood and partnerships with the US and large emerging actors such as Brazil. The latter is charting an original course in international affairs as a rising democratic power from the traditional South with no geopolitical opponents and a commitment to multilateralism. In testing the limits of its international influence, Brazil will need dependable partners and variable coalitions that go well beyond the BRICS format, which is not necessarily sustainable. This contribution suggests that the strategic partnership between the EU and Brazil may grow stronger not only as a platform to deepen economic ties and sustain growth, but also as a tool to foster cooperation in political and security affairs including crisis management, preventive diplomacy and human rights.
  • Topic: Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Latin America
  • Author: Jos Boonstra, Jacqueline Hale
  • Publication Date: 01-2010
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: European Union (EU) assistance in general and to Central Asia in particular is a complicated, many sided and fairly opaque business. In 2007, a few months prior to the Council's approval of an EU Strategy for Central Asia under the German Presidency, the Commission also presented two documents: an overarching Regional Strategy Paper for assistance to Central Asia over the period 2007–13 (RSP) and a more detailed and programme-orientated Central Asia Indicative Programme (IP), from 2007 until 2010.4 Over a seven-year period, 719 million Euros were to be set aside for assistance to the region through the new EU Development Cooperation Instrument (DCI). In addition, the EU has allocated more modest funds through global thematic instruments. Meanwhile, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and more recently the European Investment Bank (EIB) are stepping up activity in Central Asia and several member states have their own assistance programmes (foremost Germany) that are likely to match the DCI amount.
  • Topic: Development, Foreign Aid
  • Political Geography: Europe, Central Asia, Germany
  • Author: Bohdana Dimitrovova
  • Publication Date: 12-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the dynamics affecting the development of civil society in Morocco within the context of the European Neighbourhood Policy. It explores cooperation mechanisms in three domains of civil society endeavour – women's rights, human rights and socio-economic rights. In each area, the paper examines the kinds of mechanisms and opportunities emerging for the promotion of civil society, and which forms of action and stances taken by civil society have been encouraged (or otherwise). The paper contends that the development of civil society has triggered different responses by the state and international community. While civil and political rights have preoccupied domestic and international actors, socio-economic rights have long been absent from their agendas. Yet it is argued here that shifting responsibility for issues in the socio-economic domain to civil society is highly problematic under the current circumstances of state building, and poses risks of further ruptures in Moroccan society.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Human Rights, Islam
  • Political Geography: Europe, North Africa, Morocco
  • Author: Sébastien Peyrouse
  • Publication Date: 11-2009
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Agriculture constitutes one of the main sectors in the economies of Central Asia: cotton production and export, mainly in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and to a lesser extent in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan; a booming grain sector in Kazakhstan; and a long tradition of vegetable cultivation throughout the region. The agrarian question is a sensitive one since the population is still predominantly rural in four of the five republics (all except Kazakhstan) and because food safety is not ensured in the two poorest states (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Land reform would be a priority for the growth of investment, increased productivity, and, consequently, the reduction of rural unemployment and poverty. However, pressed by the choice of cotton versus self-sufficiency in food production, the Central Asian states remain hesitant. They must also manage many structural problems, including high levels of corruption in the agrarian administrative organs, the opacity of decisionmaking structures for the export of production, quasi-slavery in some impoverished rural areas, child labour, and serious environmental problems related to the overuse of the soil.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan
  • Author: Arno Behrens
  • Publication Date: 09-2008
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper analyses the variety of different external aid initiatives and financing mechanisms of the European Commission addressing climate change and development objectives, such as those stemming from the 2004 EU Action Plan on Climate Change and Development, from the Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) and those under the Thematic Programme for Environment and Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (ENRTP). The paper also outlines related Commission commitments with the European Investment Bank (EIB), the World Bank and the United Nations. While the European Commission has advanced a number of new initiatives, it seems that the complexity of responsibilities in the management of the current financing instruments requires organisational restructuring, a more transparent reporting mechanism and the development of better indicators to evaluate the impacts of those initiatives. Overall it appears that the Commission is just at the beginning of taking full account of climate change in development cooperation. Its contribution is rather limited in view of the financing needs related to climate change in developing countries, and innovative financing mechanisms should be sought together with member states and the private sector.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Maria Raquel Freire, Licínia Simão
  • Publication Date: 05-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This paper looks at the Armenian transition towards democracy, focusing on the internal and external dimensions of the process. Internally, we consider the decision-making structure, with particular emphasis on the role of leadership, the development of political parties and changes in civil society. Externally, our attention is focused on neighbourly relations and external actors, including international organisations, particularly the European Union (EU), and its specific instrument, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The paper aims to shed light on the democratisation process in Armenia and the role of the EU in this process, by looking at the relationship between Brussels and Yerevan, at the instruments and strategies in operation, and at the international context in which these changes are taking place.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Brussels
  • Author: Florian Geyer
  • Publication Date: 04-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Recent investigations, not least by the EP Temporary Committee, have shed light on the illegal practice of extraordinary renditions and unlawful detentions by foreign security services on European territory with the alleged involvement of certain member states, which suggests that the line between cooperation and complicity has become blurred. This paper addresses the issue of how EU member states could not resist taking advantage of extraordinary renditions and unlawful detentions and how they still profit from such practice. Recent examples of this kind of profiteering are provided, together with an assessment of their legality.
  • Topic: Development, International Organization, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Senem Aydin, Rusen Çakir
  • Publication Date: 04-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Turkey differs from the Arab states studied in the CEPS–FRIDE Political Islam project in not only in having a European Union membership prospect, but also in the fact that a broadly Islamist-oriented party has been in office since 2002. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) still enjoys the primary support of pro-Islamic constituencies in Turkish society and its orientation towards the EU has not changed since its assumption of power. An overwhelming majority in the party still sees the EU as the primary anchor of Turkish democracy and modernisation despite the inferred limitations of cooperation on issues relating to the reform of Turkish secularism. Yet the growing mistrust towards the EU as a result of perceived discrimination and EU double standards is beginning to cloud positive views within the party. Decreasing levels of support for EU membership in Turkish society and the fact that explicitly Euro-sceptic positions are now coming from both the left and the right of the political spectrum suggest that the sustainability of the pro-European discourse within the party could be difficult to maintain in the longer run.
  • Topic: Development, Politics, Religion
  • Political Geography: Europe, Turkey, Arabia
  • Author: Sergio Carrera
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The EU is developing a border management strategy aiming at an "integrated and global response" to the challenges posed by the phenomenon of irregular immigration through the common external borders. "The Southern maritime borders" constitute one of the main targets addressed by this strategy. On November 2006, the European Commission published a communication calling for the reinforced management of the EU's Southern maritime borders and for the maximisation of the capacities of the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union – FRONTEX. This paper provides some reflections about these current policy approaches by looking at the nature, scope and practical implications of the implementation of the Integrated Border Management strategy and its relationship with a common EU immigration policy. After assessing the latest policy developments in these areas, we raise a number of questions about some of the functions and capacities carried out by FRONTEX, and present a series of vulnerabilities characterising the joint operations coordinated by this Community body taking the example of the operations HERA I, II and III in the Canary Islands (Spain).
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe, Spain
  • Author: Stefano Bertozzi
  • Publication Date: 02-2007
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This article argues for closer integration to be a key part of the EU's migration policy. It accepts that migration is necessary for a prosperous Europe and looks at the role of the EU and how best to integrate immigrants. Countries' experiences and the need for better aligned policies among member states are examined. The European Commission's role in sharing experiences and best practices is considered, as well as the need for the many stakeholders involved to work together. Integration is a complex and delicate process, and ultimately the EU must be bolder in its promotion of integration if it is to benefit from migration.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, Claudio Vicarelli
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
  • Topic: Development, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, Vladimir Sazhin
  • Publication Date: 06-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
  • Topic: Development, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany
  • Author: Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, Paul Tang
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Economics, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Europe, Lisbon
  • Author: Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, Mike Widgrén
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, Alexei D. Voskressenski
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
  • Topic: Arms Control and Proliferation, Development
  • Political Geography: China, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Ville Kaitila
  • Publication Date: 02-2005
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jorgen Drud Hansen, Morten Hansen
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: For almost a decade all three Baltic countries have witnessed substantial deficits on the current accounts of the balance of payments. This paper discusses whether this situation should be a matter of concern. Recent literature on the sustainability of balance of payments deficits is reviewed and put into a Baltic context. The main conclusion is that the recurrent large deficits in the Baltic countries pose a risk for the fixed exchange-rate policies until the countries adopt the euro. In the longer term, large deficits will influence the time path of convergence of living standards between the Baltic countries and the EU as a whole.
  • Topic: Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: David Kernohan, Dean A. DeRosa
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Population
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Francesco Daveri
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Magazines and newspapers often refer to or even take for granted the economic decline of the EU, particularly when contrasting the EU data with US data. The first part of this paper poses the question of whether IT – as often alleged – is really the only cause for the EU's productivity slowdown. The conclusion is that it is not. The non-IT part of the economy has not only contributed to the slowdown but appears to have crucially contributed to the EU-US growth gap as well. There is thus little reason for the EU to target IT-diffusion as an intermediate goal, as implied by the Lisbon strategy. The second part of the paper, after showing that the growth slowdown comes from the reduction of non-IT capital deepening and the lack of acceleration in total factor productivity growth, argues that the slowdown of capital deepening will continue. The scarce resources available for enhancing growth should concentrate on providing incentives to R and innovation at large, rather than financing traditional infrastructures. This is at odds with the goals pursued by the EU within the framework of the European Growth Initiative.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Carlos Santiso
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Should European Union (EU) member states 're-nationalise' foreign aid? Considering the dismal record of the aid managed by the European Commission, this is a legitimate question that European leaders nevertheless seem unwilling to address seriously. Like in America, there is heightened debate across Europe on the purpose of the aid it provides to developing countries. The current debates on poverty reduction, debt relief and, more broadly, the effectiveness of development assistance have brought renewed light on foreign aid.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: America, Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Economic recovery in the region requires stable currencies and open markets. The best way to establish these two basic conditions quickly is for the countries concerned to immediately link their currencies to the euro via a currency board and join the customs union of the EU. The EU should support this radical approach financially in two ways: a) through compensation for lost tariff revenues (conditional on clean and efficient border controls), and, b) emergency loans to acquire the necessary backing for the currency board. The currency boards should graduate to full euroisation in 2002. The total cost for the EU would be modest: around 2 billion euro p.a. if all countries participate. A market-led approach that pays local hosts to house refugees would ensure that the expenditure on refugees benefits the local economies.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Migration
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe