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391. Sahel: 10 Years of Instability. Local, Regional and International Dynamics

Author:
Giovanni Carbone and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Ten years after the start of the Malian crisis, political and security instability in the Sahel have changed in scale and nature, and spilled over across national frontiers. The border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has become the new epicentre of insecurity. The comeback of military actors on the political scene, and the support provided by large parts of the population to post-coup military juntas is evidence of poor governance and a severe deterioration in the legitimacy of elected authorities. In this complex scenario, the initiatives of external partners affect regional balances, making the Sahel a major theatre for power competition. How did the crisis evolve over the past decade? What are the main drivers behind local, regional and international dynamics? What prospects for regional stability?
Topic:
Security, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

392. Facing War: Rethinking Europe’s Security and Defence

Author:
Serena Giusti and Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across Europe and the world. While the current war is a geopolitical turning point, it remains unclear whether it will trigger a quantum leap forward for European defence policies and for the role of the European Union as a security provider. This Report investigates whether we can expect a further convergence of European strategic cultures, and on collaboration among Europeans to generate the required military capabilities and integrate their forces. Most importantly, it finds that the timely implementation of the EU’s Strategic Compass will be a decisive test to establish whether Europeans are rising to the challenge of taking more responsibility for their security and defence.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

393. From Warlords to Statelords: Armed Groups and Power Trajectories in Libya and Yemen

Author:
Eleanore Ardemagni and Federica Saini Fasanotti
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Armed groups play a central role in Libya and Yemen. Pervading weak and contested institutions, they have gradually brought their survival, profit and governance strategies under the state umbrella: warlords have become the new lords of the state. Armed groups control most of the energy revenues, critical infrastructure, smuggling and illicit trafficking. Their leaders are multifaceted: they are simultaneously military commanders, tribal chiefs, politicians and businessmen. Combining comparative analysis and case studies, this Report sheds light on the “economic face” of the armed groups and their power trajectories. How do armed groups build networks of profit and loyalty in the territories they hold? How does clientelism mark a continuity trend with former authoritarian regimes?
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, Armed Forces, and Economy
Political Geography:
Libya, Yemen, and North Africa

394. Energy Politics in the MENA Region: From Hydrocarbons to Renewables?

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its weaponisation of natural gas supplies, energy security has become a top political priority for Europe. Given the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's abundant oil and gas resources, the European countries inevitably turned to the region to make up for the shortfall. This Report analyses the impact of Europe's "scramble for alternatives" on key MENA exporters of fossil fuels. Specific attention is attached to their prospects as short-term suppliers of fossil fuels while they set the stage for their green transition. How is the current energy crisis affecting the role of MENA hydrocarbons producers as Europe's energy suppliers? Which impact on energy relations among MENA countries? Which new prospects for their green transition?
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, Hydrocarbons, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

395. Asia’s Push For Monetary Alternatives

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For the last quarter century, Asia has been seeking greater autonomy within the existing international monetary system. While the region has had the resources to go its own way, intraregional rivalries and a reluctance to damage ties to the US and the International Monetary Fund have put a damper on regional initiatives. Now the ascendency of China offers a path toward greater regional autonomy in monetary affairs. Asia, led by China, has been playing a two-track strategy pushing for greater influence within the existing global institutions, while developing its own parallel institutions such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Use of the Chinese renminbi will likely grow as a trade invoicing currency but expanded use of the renminbi as a reserve currency is more uncertain. It is possible that the dollar-centered international financial system could evolve into a multipolar system with multiple currencies playing key roles.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Finance, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

396. The Indian Farmer Makes Her Voice Heard

Author:
Sandeep Kandikuppa and Pallavi Gupta
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In August 2020, thousands of farmers, mostly from Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, gathered on the outskirts of India’s national capital, New Delhi, to protest the passage of three controversial “farm laws” perceived by these farmers as threats to their livelihoods and well-being. Though the farm laws would affect only a small percentage of India’s farmers, over the next 16 months the protests attracted participation from across the country, cutting across class, caste, gender, and religious identities. While the proximate driver seemed to be the farmers’ fear of losing legal protections against a collapse in the market price of their produce, broader economic, ecological, and social factors helped trigger the movement. The protestors employed several strategies that made their movement successful enough in pushing back against a hugely popular government to bring about a repeal of the laws the farmers objected to.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Women, and Protests
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

397. Strengthening Japan-ROK Relations: The Prime Time to Rebuild Relations Through Young Parliamentary Diplomacy

Author:
Hideshi Futori
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol began his remarkable administration by emphasizing the values of freedom and democracy, and the triangular Japan-U.S.-ROK relationship. Contrasting the previous administration, which prioritized reconciliation with North Korea, President Yoon embraced positive messages on restoring Japan-ROK relations even before taking office. On August 15, the National Liberation Day of Korea, President Yoon described Japan as a “neighbor that joins forces against the challenges that threaten freedom.” Such a posture clearly distinguishes President Yoon’s approach from that of previous South Korean administrations. Truly, even after the Yoon Administration’s approval rating began declining, Japan-ROK relations were not used politically to alleviate the pressure. One of the best takeaways from my recent visit to South Korea was Foreign Minister Park Chun’s assurance to “persistently work from a strategic perspective to improve relations with Japan, a partner that shares the universal values of freedom, human rights, and the rule of law.” Heretofore, Japan has not been able to capitalize on the precious opportunities it has been afforded to mend ties with Korea. Instead, Japan continues to take a hardline approach toward South Korea and is unable to flexibly respond, instead prioritizing Japan’s self-image, as suggested by the export control regulations toward South Korea. Since 2019, the Japanese government has tightened control regulations on exports of semiconductor materials to South Korea in response to potential seizures of Japanese assets as reparations for forced labor claims related to Japan’s 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. I believe Japan should consider changing its policies toward South Korea as South Korea has proactively improved its policies in response to Japan’s request, nonetheless, the effects have faded. From the perspective of economic security, it is also necessary to diversify Japan’s supply chain and strengthen trilateral cooperation between Japan, the United States, and South Korea. Similar voices have been raised not only from South Korea but also by Japanese experts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and South Korea

398. After Hegemony: Japan’s role and dilemma in maintaining the rules-based order

Author:
Yu Inagaki
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The phrase “rules-based order” has recently become a recurring theme in the Japan-US alliance . This is based on the recognition that the liberal international order (LIO)—which the United States built and maintained, and that Japan has significantly benefited from—is now being challenged. While the war in Ukraine has heightened the sense of crisis over global power dynamics, China has been considered the main threat to the LIO. The United States has identified China as not just a security threat but a “ most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge ,” and Japan has come to view the current international environment from a larger perspective, international order. In fact, Japan has expected to play a leading role in maintaining the LIO as US international engagement weakened under the Trump administration. However, is it possible for Japan, a constrained middle power, to maintain the existing order in the face of a declining hegemon and rising challengers? This raises a classic question in international relations: What will happen to the international order after hegemony; and what can and will Japan, occupying a particular place and role in the international system, be able and willing to do regarding international order?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Hegemony, and International Order
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

399. Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan

Author:
East-West Center
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The inaugural edition of Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and the Taiwan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Culture, Population, and Travel
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

400. New Opportunities for the United States-Kingdom of Thailand Alliance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Lance D. Jackson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In March 2022, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Royal Thai Embassy, Washington, DC, convened a two-day seminar in which experts from Thailand and the United States discussed issues and opportunities for the US-Thailand alliance. The workshop included a diverse array of discussants hailing from government, military, academic, think tank, and private sector backgrounds. This report, which adheres to the “Chatham House Rule” under which observations referred to in the report are not attributed to any individual participant, is a summary of the group discussions and the key themes from the seminar. The recent signing of the United States-Thailand Communique on Strategic Alliance and Partnership and a memorandum of understanding (MOU) focused on promoting supply chain resilience on July 10, 2022, highlight the pertinence of this report and the associated seminar. The topics detailed in this report aligned with many of the pressing issues addressed in the Communique and MOU, including expanding law enforcement cooperation, deepening cybersecurity collaboration, supporting resilient transportation corridors, advancing military modernization, and catalyzing Thailand’s bio-circular-green (BCG) economy. The report also covered topics and key themes from a series of jointly produced public webinars and an Asia Pacific Bulletin series of policy briefs on US-Thai affairs.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Leadership, Public Health, and Travel
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific