Search

Begin New Search Content Type Special Report

1851. A Role Model for Water Governance in a Shared Basin: the Example of the Danube

Author:
Ivan Zavadsky
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) is the largest transnational river basin management body in Europe. Its work is based on the Danube River Protection Convention (DRPC), signed on June 29, 1994 in Sofia, Bulgaria, the major legal instrument for cooperation and transboundary water management in the Danube River Basin. The ICPDR was established in 1998. The Convention was signed by eleven countries: Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the European Union. Serbia joined the Convention in 2003, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2005. Montenegro became the 14th ICPDR member in 2008. The ICPDR is formally comprised by the Delegations of all Contracting Parties to the DRPC. The ultimate goal of the ICPDR is to implement the Danube River Protection Convention, and make it a “living” instrument. The mission of the institution is to promote and coordinate sustainable and equitable water management, including conservation, and improvement and rational use of waters for the benefit of the Danube River Basin countries and their people. The ICPDR pursues its mission by making recommendations for the improvement of water quality, developing mechanisms for flood and accident control, agreeing on standards for emissions, and by assuring that these measures are reflected in the Contracting Parties’ national legislation and are applied in their policies.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

1852. Riparian Governance in South Asia: Many Rivers to Cross

Author:
Rajiv Bhatia
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Governance of transboundary rivers in South Asia is both complex and challenging due to a peculiar mix of imperatives relating to geography, demographics, and geopolitics. Hosting a quarter of the world’s population, the region, however, has no choice but to improve its record of riparian governance if it is to contribute more to the world’s well-being and its own.
Topic:
Demographics, Water, Governance, Geopolitics, and Geography
Political Geography:
South Asia

1853. Measuring Shinzo Abe’s Impact on the Indo‐Pacific

Author:
John Hemmings
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Last month’s news that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was stepping down came like a thunderbolt from the blue. Once again, a health condition that had compelled him to step down in 2007, resurfaced. Whatever else one might say about Abe ‘the politician’ or Abe ‘the nationalist’, one cannot refute the fact that Abe the ‘grand strategist’ has had the most impact on Japan’s security posture since the Second World War. Of course, the question will be how Yoshihide Suga - his successor - adjusts Japan's grand strategy in coming months before he calls an election. One thing is already obvious, Suga – and, indeed, the next generation of future prime ministers – will have to live with Abe’s legacy in one form or another. This is all a long way from 2007, when Abe’s one-year premiership was already in the rear-view mirror. Even as he recovered his health, there were whispers in the corridors of Kasumigaseki that he intended to make a comeback and become prime minister again. At the time, many Japan-watchers were skeptical about his chances. His first year had not been particularly successful or popular. Indeed, the loss of the Upper House to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan had paved the way for their electoral in in 2009. Despite this inauspicious beginning, not only did Abe challenge his doubters by successfully running for LDP leadership in September 2012 but he campaigned on a slogan of “take back Japan” in November and won the premiership back in 2012.
Topic:
Security, Elections, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Japan and Indo-Pacific

1854. Where Are We Now? Examining the Trump Administration’s Efforts to Combat Cybercrime

Author:
Michael Garcia and Anisha Hindocha
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has seen an acceleration of an already massive cybercrime wave. Daily reports of cybercrime to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center have nearly quadrupled since the pandemic began, to roughly 4,000 reports per day. Unfortunately, even before this crisis began, the enforcement rates for these crimes are low – for every 1,000 reported cyber incidents, only three arrests of the perpetrators occur. In the fall of 2018, the White House released the “National Cyber Strategy of the United States,” which detailed how the Administration would create or update policies for combating cybercrime. While no implementation plan for this Strategy was ever published, Third Way conducted an analysis of publicly available information of the Administration’s actions and budgetary allocations since the strategy’s release to examine their cybercrime enforcement efforts.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1855. Weakened Encryption: The Threat to America’s National Security

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Michael Garcia
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
For years, law enforcement officials have warned that, because of encryption, criminals can hide their communications and acts, causing law enforcement to struggle to decrypt data during their investigation—a challenge commonly referred to as “going dark.” They called on technology companies to build a process, like a “master key,” to enable law enforcement to unlock encrypted communications. While this may seem like a tempting idea, it would have grave implications for our national security. As more and more of our communications move online, users seek out encrypted services to protect their privacy. Unlike telephonic communications, and despite repeated requests by law enforcement to do so, Congress has not required internet communications platforms to give law enforcement access to intercept user communications or access stored communications. In this paper, we assess the national security risks to a requirement to provide that master key (referred to throughout as “exceptional” or “backdoor” access) to encrypted communications and propose alternative approaches to address online harms.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Encryption
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1856. A Roadmap to Strengthen US Cyber Enforcement: Where Do We Go From Here?

Author:
Allison Peters and Michael Garcia
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The following report is the result of a multiyear effort to define concrete steps to improve the US government’s ability to tackle the scourge of cybercrime by better identifying perpetrators and imposing meaningful consequences on them and those behind their actions
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Governance, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1857. Ecosystem Mapping: The State of Play and the Path to Creating a Community of Practice

Author:
Branka Panic
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
How can cutting-edge approaches to data—like advanced data science methods, quantitative methods, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and natural language processing (NLP)—help inform peacebuilding and conflict prevention? In 2019 and 2020, the Center on International Cooperation convened researchers and practitioners for a series of workshops on Data for Peace and Security highlighting practical applications of these new approaches in the peacebuilding field. Now, we are continuing this work through a new initiative on Data for Peacebuilding and Prevention, which will include a series of monthly Data for Peace Dialogues. This report, launched at the first virtual dialogue, lays out the state of the field and provides recommendations on how best to grow the field effectively. The report maps and analyzes the existing global ecosystem in the field of data for peace and prevention. It highlights multiple examples of relevant initiatives throughout the world utilizing big data, data visualization, AI, ML, image recognition, and social media listening. It also discusses technical challenges impacting all actors, such as the lack of data or lack of high-quality data, lack of access due to security reasons, and data colonialism, as well as the ethical considerations brought on by exponential technologies (security, accessibility, transparency, safety, trust, bias, and justice), and some specific challenges for data-driven approaches to peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Fragile States, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1858. Global Trends Report 2018

Author:
Mensur Akgün, Sena Kekeç, and Yasin Küçükkaya
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
This report focuses on the 73rd Session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 73) that the theme of general debate is “Making the United Nations Relevant to All People: Global Leadership and Shared Responsibilities for Peaceful, Equitable and Sustainable Societies.” held on September 25 - October 1, 2019. In the first part, it aims to analyze priority topics in Turkey’s statement. Accordingly, it shows how all the remaining 195 speeches matched with the themes of Turkey. In the second part, it staked out the measurement of both global and regional correlation through percentages. It can also be found some graphs showing the comparison with the last year.
Topic:
United Nations, Leadership, Peace, Sustainability, and Equity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

1859. Spilling Over: Conflict Dynamics in and around Sudan's Blue Nile State, 2015–19

Author:
Khalid Ammar Hassan
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The conflict between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-North (SPLM/A-N) in Sudan’s Blue Nile state erupted in September 2011—extending from ongoing combat in South Kordofan, in Jibal El Nouba state. Fighting continued until mid-2016 when both parties declared unilateral cessations of hostilities. Although the Blue Nile conflict has been deemed ‘inactive’ since 2016, tensions in the area continue as a result of the SPLM/A-N split into two factions and the state’s proximity to South Sudan. A report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the developments in Blue Nile from 2015 onwards. Spilling Over: Conflict Dynamics in and around Sudan’s Blue Nile State, 2015–19 takes its basis in previous HSBA studies on the topic from 2011 to 2015, and provides an analysis of the military and political dynamics that followed. It assesses the evolution of the SPLM/A-N’s war with the Government of Sudan (GoS); the split within the SPLM/A-N itself; the dire humanitarian situation; as well as the failed—more than 15 since 2011—peace talks.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1860. Sudan Uprising: Popular Struggles, Elite Compromises, and Revolution Betrayed

Author:
John Young
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In response to wider economic decline and uneven development, youth-led protests broke out in Khartoum in December 2018. Following this, the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) brought together political parties and armed groups to form the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), committed to removing Omar al-Bashir from power. A report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, Sudan Uprising: Popular Struggles, Elite Compromises, and Revolution Betrayed, analyzes the 2018–19 uprising in the country, what led up to it, and what happened next. Trailing the history of rebellion in Sudan, the reign of the National Islamist Front (NIF)/ National Congress Party (NCP), the dynamics of the uprising, the attack on the sit-in outside the military headquarters in Khartoum, and the power-sharing agreement, the report finds that since the primary grievances underlying the uprising were not resolved, instability is likely to continue.
Topic:
Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, Revolution, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1861. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement

Author:
Jérôme Tubiana, Clotilde Warin, and Mahamat Saleh Mangare
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Darfur’s fade-out from international headlines and Western interests over the past several years has fostered a false narrative that the conflict there is over, despite stark evidence to the contrary. Linked to this narrative, the paralysis of internal and international engagement on Darfur has compelled Darfurians—civilians and combatants alike—to increase their outward mobility in search of safety and livelihood opportunities in neighbouring African countries or further afield into Europe. Diaspora in Despair: Darfurian Mobility at a Time of International Disengagement, a new joint report from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) and Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) projects analyzes several components and consequences of this increased mobility. The report finds that highly mobile Darfurian rebel groups have found fertile ground for lucrative activities such as cross-border smuggling in neighbouring countries—particularly Libya. The study also notes that the harsh conditions encountered in Libya by non-Arab Darfurian civilians have compelled many to seek asylum across the Mediterranean in Europe.
Topic:
Conflict, Smuggling, and Disengagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Darfur, and Libya

1862. Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa

Author:
Nicolas Florquin, Elodie Hainard, and Benjamin Jongleux
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Even though states may not intentionally supply materiel to armed groups, a lack of stringent risk assessments on weapons and ammunition exports destined for areas prone to diversion can hamper efforts to curtail the broader illicit arms trade. The 2020 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s annual Trade Update, Trade Update 2020: An Eye on Ammunition Transfers to Africa, delves into cases of authorized small arms ammunition transfers to Africa through exploring the potential of beyond-the-norm data sources. Relying on peacekeeping operations, national customs, and civil society research, the case studies highlight ammunition imports from opaque exporters to countries affected by armed conflict, states subject to arms embargoes, and other areas on the continent equally prone to seeing arms and ammunition diverted from the licit to illicit markets. Ammunition accounted for 42 per cent of all authorized African small arms imports in 2017. Since countries with low transparency records do export ammunition to government forces in conflict-affected regions and such regions are prone to diversion, there is a gap in risk identification. Therefore, findings from the case studies emphasize the importance of exporters improving their reporting practices and carrying out stringent risk assessments. In addition, the leveraging of multiple data sources can enhance the monitoring of the authorized ammunition trade and help curb unauthorized activities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Crime, Markets, Peacekeeping, Arms Trade, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa

1863. Radical Right Counter Narratives Expert Workshop Report

Author:
Hedayah
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
This report presents some of the overarching themes, key insights, and modes of practice discussed over the two-day workshop in order to convey current trends and best practices in the area of radical right extremist counter-narratives. This workshop report is one of the many deliverables produced as part of the Radical Right Counter Narrative Collection project, funded through the STRIVE Global program and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right.
Topic:
Radical Right, Political Extremism, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Europe, New Zealand, Global Focus, and United States of America

1864. GENDER AND PEACEMAKING STRATEGY

Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The European Institute of Peace is scaling up its efforts to incorporate the Women, Peace and Security Agenda across its work. In order to do this the Institute has developed a “Gender and Peacemaking” Strategy. This will contribute to achieving our vision of a world where people live in safety and peace because conflicts and grievances are resolved through inclusive dialogue and lasting political agreements. The Institute is committed to ensuring that gender perspectives, women’s meaningful participation and protection of their rights are a central component of our work. By using the Women, Peace and Security Agenda as a framework for a localised and rights-based approach to conflict prevention, resolution and peacebuilding we can contribute to international efforts to prevent conflict and create a more sustainable peace.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

1865. TIME TO STEP UP EU MEDIATION?

Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The need and scope for conflict resolution and mediation is going up. The numbers of people affected by violence and conflict is increasing. The world is disfigured by prolonged, internationalised civil wars and growing civil unrest. Great power politics are resurgent, the conventions regulating states’ behaviour are fraying, and international law and human rights are being eroded. Profound demographic and climatic changes, the emergence of new technologies and of threats are changing the global landscape in ways that should bring humanity together but too often are exploited for commercial and political gain, driving insecurity and a sense of injustice. The EU has an enormous role to play in this context. It is a powerful global actor pursuing multiple objectives on the world stage. It is committed to human rights, gender equity, sustainable development and a rules based global order, and to supporting others that are taking action, whether inter- governmental and regional bodies such as the UN and AU, or civil society including at the very local level. But the EU also recognises, as the High Representative has put it, the need to learn “to use the language of power”, to deploy its capabilities, whether political, security, economic or regulatory, more strategically to shape reality, address the agents and drivers of violence, and secure peace. So what should the EU’s role in mediation be in this context? The review of the EU’s concept on mediation provides an excellent opportunity to generate debate and to define the parameters of the future of EU mediation frameworks. This study provides a snapshot of the views within the Brussels diplomatic and policy community. Even within this relatively confined universe, there is a very broad diversity of opinions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Human Rights, Peacekeeping, European Union, Sustainability, Mediation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Europe

1866. THE SIDAMA’S QUEST FOR SELF-RULE: A STUDY OF THE REFERENDUM ON REGIONAL STATEHOOD

Author:
Kjetil Tronvoll, Filata Boroje, and Kairedin Tezera
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
On 14 and 15 January 2020, the European Institute of Peace presented a report entitled “Sidama’s quest for self-rule: a study of the referendum on regional statehood” in Addis Ababa, to an audience of politicians, policy makers, activists, academics and researchers, civil society organisations, and interested citizens of Ethiopia. This study, conducted by Professor Kjetil Tronvoll with Filata Boroje and Kairedin Tezera on behalf of the Institute, assesses the referendum that was held among inhabitants of the Sidama zone Ethiopia on 20 November 2019.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Nation-State, Autonomy, Independence, and Statehood
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1867. Western Balkans in 2020

Author:
Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our researchers, Žiga Faktor and Jana Juzová, analyse elections in Serbia, Croatia, Northern Macedonia and Montenegro in four policy papers and offer recommendations aimed at strengthening the EU's enlargement policy. In this report, EUROPEUM’s two researchers – Jana Juzová and Žiga Faktor – analyze each of the four elections from these perspectives in four policy papers, offering succinct dissections of the elections themselves, as well as what they portend for the future of the region and the EU’s enlargement policy. Based on their analyses, they offer policy recommendations designed to strengthen the EU enlargement policy in a tailor-made approach rather than the hitherto “one size fits all”-approach that has proven dysfunctional not only from the perspective of future enlargement, but also retrospectively during the last enlargement wave in 2004. The enlargement policy may be seen as marginalized today, yet the enlargement policy is not solely a policy of enlargement; it is a window into the state of the EU, as well as the soul of Europe itself. It is therefore my pleasure to invite interested readers to read more about the 2020 developments in the Western Balkans, offering both valuable insights about the region itself, and an opportunity to thoughtfully consider what role the EU and Europe should play in a changing world marred by instability and upheaval.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Croatia, and Montenegro

1868. Continuity and Change in Iraq’s Sunni Politics: Sunni Arab Political Trends, Factions, and Personalities Since 2014

Author:
Kirk H. Sowell
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The year 2014 was a horrible one for Iraq. The national election held in April was preceded by two ominous trends: an increasingly strong, armed insurgency from the Sunni Arab population and an increasingly sharp sectarian conflict within the mainstream political system, driven by actions of both the Shia Islamist-dominated government and Sunni Arab political leaders. A divisive election with a disputed result was followed by a strong insurgency, and while both pan-Arab and Iraqi Sunni media tended to frame it as a “revolution” driven by oppressed Sunni tribesmen, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS), a brutal terrorist group with a globalist Salafi-Jihadist ideology, was its primary driver. The crucible event of the year was the fall of Mosul, Iraq’s most populous Sunni-majority city in the northwest province of Nineveh, to ISIS jihadists on June 10. The city did not fall without resistance, as is sometimes said, as federal police units fought a four-day gun battle for the city, while army divisions, including two garrisoned right outside the city, watched on. Once resistance in the city collapsed, several Iraqi army divisions, weakened by sectarian divisions and riddled with corruption, collapsed almost overnight, and terrorists overran much of northern and western Iraq. These events were a watershed for Iraq, and especially for its Sunni Arab population, and it is Sunni Arab politics since 2014 which is the focus of this chapter.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Sectarianism, Elections, Sunni, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1869. Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics

Author:
Aaron Stein
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Republic of Iraq has faced considerable challenges after the American-led invasion in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, ranging from insurgency to endemic corruption and poor government services. Baghdad has emerged as the epicenter of a broader geopolitical struggle between the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran, two hostile adversaries at odds since the Islamic Revolution toppled the American-friendly Shah in 1979. Amidst these broader challenges, Iraq faced an existential security threat in 2014, after the Islamic State gained strength in Syria, augmented its ranks with foreign fighters, and took control over eastern Syria and parts of western Iraq, including the Iraqi city of Mosul, the country’s second largest city. The war to defeat this group was brutal and fraught, with the Iraqi military bearing the brunt of the casualties fighting for control over densely populated urban areas and vast expanses of desert terrain. The fighting consumed Iraqi affairs for years, blunted the sharp tensions that underpin U.S.-Iran relations, and focused military efforts on the defeat of a common enemy. In the year since the defeat of the Islamic State, the American role in Iraq has become less clear. The United States has undertaken an aggressive policy, dubbed “Maximum Pressure,” to economically coerce the Iranian government to make a series of concessions, including limits on the development of ballistic missiles and foreign policy changes. This effort included the American withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multi-national agreement that placed considerable limits on Iran’s nuclear program and instituted an expansive inspection regime to verify the terms of the deal in exchange for Iran receiving American and European sanctions relief. The Trump administration’s decision to reimpose sanctions severely complicated the arrangement, depriving Iran of the reward for its compliance and setting in motion a series of Iranian steps to try to coerce Europe to continue to uphold trade with the Islamic Republic. The United States, however, has threatened to sanction European entities should they not comply with American policy. The tensions over sanctions have had a deleterious effect on stability in Iraq and the Middle East, more broadly. The Iranian government has gradually increased its efforts to impose a cost on the United States for using sanctions to end its export of oil, beginning with a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating to include missile strikes on important oil centers in Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais, and then a shooting down an American surveillance drone. In response to rocket attacks inside Iraq, the United States has struck Iraqi militia’s linked to Iran and, in January 2020, assassinated Major General Qasem Soleimani, the now-deceased leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iranian-linked actor that oversaw Iraqi militias sympathetic to the Islamic Republic. In retaliation, the Iranian military fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at bases in Iraq, striking targets with precision, but luckily resulting in no American deaths. The strikes still resulted in over one hundred cases of traumatic brain injury in the soldiers at the targeted bases. The tit-for-tat underscores Iran’s appetite for risk, particularly at time when its economy is under siege from U.S. actions.
Topic:
Politics, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Sunni, Transition, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

1870. The Russian Way of War in Syria: Implications for the West

Author:
Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Russian Federation’s intervention in Syria is a watershed event. However the war there ends, its impact on Russia is likely to be profound. For the first time in its post-Soviet history, Russia’s military is fighting outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. In doing so, it is exercising military capabilities that had atrophied from long lack of use. Moscow is also rebuilding its diplomatic muscle through its role in Syria by managing a diverse coalition, leading a parallel peace process, and forcing the United States to take the Kremlin’s preferences into account when making decisions in the Middle East. Through Syria, Russia has reemerged on the geopolitical stage. The war is not over, and there are many ways in which things could still go badly for Russia. Moscow may find that a return to geopolitical prominence entails costs and risks at least as great as the rewards that status brings. Nevertheless, the West will be dealing with a Russia that has changed fundamentally through its experience in the war. Understanding these changes and their implications for Western governments is the focus of this conclusion chapter. It is structured around two questions. First, what does Syria tell us about how Russia fights its wars? Second, how has Russia’s experience in Syria affected the capabilities of its armed forces? Answering these questions should increase our understanding of Russia as a geopolitical actor and allow Western governments to make more effective policy on issues where Russia is a factor.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Armed Forces, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

1871. African Insurgencies

Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
World Politics Review
Abstract:
In Nigeria, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Mozambique and Somalia
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, Chad, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso

1872. R2P Monitor, Issue 49, 15 January 2020

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 49 looks at developments in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
Genocide, Human Rights, Conflict, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Burkina Faso

1873. PART I: How Auctions Helped Solar Become the Cheapest Electricity in the World

Author:
Benjamin Attia, Shayle Kann, and Morgan D. Bazilian
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The global energy transition has reached an inflection point. In numerous markets, the declining cost of solar photovoltaics (PV) has already beaten the cost of new-build coal and natural gas and is now chasing down operating costs of existing thermal power plants, forcing a growing crowd of thermal generation assets into early retirement. Perfect comparability between dispatchable and non-dispatchable resources invites debate, but the cost declines in solar PV are irrefutable: the global average unit cost of competitively-procured solar electricity declined by 83 percent from 2010 to 2018. This is due in part to module cost reductions of approximately 90 percent, capacity-weighted average construction cost declines of 74 percent, and a global paradigm shift in renewable energy procurement policies in the last six years.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1874. The Srebrenica Genocide: A Testament to Persistence in “The Last Refuge”

Author:
Carly Kabot
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
History is the storyteller that holds all truth, yet when she speaks, much of mankind closes its ears. Hasan Nuhanović, a survivor of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide committed by a Bosnian Serb militia, narrates his family’s harrowing journey through Bosnia in The Last Refuge: A True Story of War, Survival, and Life under Seige in Srebrenica. Though Nuhanović’s story is tragic, it is not uncommon. He makes this clear from the beginning, writing, “I did not write this book to tell my own story” (5). Rather, his story embodies the experiences of eight thousand Bosniaks who were executed by Serb forces on July 11, 1995, and brings to mind the millions of genocide victims worldwide who have been mercilessly slaughtered in the past century.
Topic:
Genocide, War, History, Book Review, Ethnic Cleansing, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Srebrenica

1875. The Causes, Effects, and Manifestations of the Money Laundering Problem in the Former Soviet Union

Author:
Yehuda Shaffer and Stefan D. Cassella
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the past few years, a number of European banks have been implicated in money laundering scandals in countries such as Cyprus, Malta, Latvia, and, most recently, Scandinavia. Although European and international voices are putting pressure to take further action by all including the banks against this, the issue continues to emerge in the continent. In this short article, we attempt to explain this trend and how might it be resolved.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Finance, Business, Financial Crimes, Banks, and Currency
Political Geography:
Russia, Soviet Union, Latvia, Scandinavia, Cyprus, and Malta

1876. South China Sea Threat Assessment: Is China a Threat or a Paper Tiger?

Author:
Shaoyu Yuan
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Tensions in the South China Sea continue to rise. China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s Rear Admiral Lou Yuan, regarded as a hawkish military commentator, recently proclaimed that the continuing dispute over the ownership of the South China Sea could be resolved by sinking two US aircraft carriers. Statements like these result in a legitimate fear that China’s increasing presence in the South China Sea might spark a kinetic military conflict with the United States. However, while most Western scholars and media are paying excessive attention to the rise of China, few are contemplating China’s weaknesses in the region. Despite China’s constant verbal objections and rising tensions with the United States in the last century, the world has yet to witness any major military confrontation between the two superpowers. China will continue to avoid directly confronting the United States in the South China Sea for at least another decade because China’s military remains immature and defective.
Topic:
Security, Power Politics, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, South China, and United States of America

1877. Sanctions, Scarcity, and the Depressing Reality of Iranian Healthcare

Author:
Younes Mahmoudieh
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
When I visited Iran this summer, severe panic attacks, depression, and anxiety—longstanding byproducts of post-traumatic stress disorder—caused me to seek out a trauma therapist. After weeks of contacting Iranian pharmacies, hospitals, charities, and relief organizations, my prescriptions for Zoloft, Xanax, Ativan, and Clonazepam remained unfilled. Since the United States exited the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA) and imposed new sanctions, this kind of shortage has become commonplace.
Topic:
Health, Sanctions, International Community, and International Court of Justice (ICJ)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1878. Same-Sex Marriage and the Liberal Transformation of Ireland

Author:
Theresa Reidy
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In 2015, Ireland became the first country in the world to introduce same-sex marriage through a national referendum vote. The decision to introduce equal marriage received a great deal of attention, and not just because it was the first positive referendum decision on this issue; the vote was also preceded by a citizens’ assembly which recommended the referendum and endorsed a “yes” vote. The resounding victory for the liberal position provided definitive evidence of Ireland’s shift from a conservative, inward-looking European periphery state to a modern, liberal, and inclusive republic.
Topic:
Religion, Culture, Domestic Politics, and LGBT+
Political Geography:
Europe, Ireland, and European Union

1879. Pope Francis: Extending his “Culture of Encounter” into the Arab and Muslim Worlds

Author:
Scott M. Thomas and Anthony O'Mahony
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In February 2019, Pope Francis became the first pope to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Like John-Paul II before him, he has also visited Egypt, and he went to Morocco in March 2019. The pope participated in a colloquium on “human fraternity” and interreligious dialogue sponsored by the UAE-based Muslim Council of Elders—the brain-child of Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, the grand imam of Egypt’s Al-Azhar, the most important Sunni Muslim university in the world. The Council of Elders sponsors initiatives to engage young Muslims on Islamist ideology by promoting a more “authentic” interpretation of Islam. Islamist violence—with its beheadings and mass executions—has provoked disgust across the Muslim world and is causing young Muslims to become more distant from their imams and mosques. It is becoming clear to many Muslim intellectuals in Egypt, Iraq, and Lebanon that, in order to defeat Islamism, there needs to be greater dialogue and coexistence with Christians. Pope Francis is attempting to lead the way, extending his “culture of encounter.”
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Culture, Violence, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Vatican city

1880. No Peace Without Justice in Afghanistan

Author:
Huma Saeed
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s presidential election took place on September 28, 2019, with less than 2 million people participating out of 9.7 million registered voters. Taking into consideration Afghanistan’s total population of 35 million, the turnout was a historic low—a problem further amplified by the fact that the government poured a huge amount of financial and human resources into election preparation. The main explanation for such low turnout is twofold. On the one hand, security threats such as suicide attacks or gun violence—which reached their peak during the presidential election campaigns—deterred many people from going to polling stations. On the other hand, Afghans have become wary about determining their own political fate because, for decades, regional and international powers have steered the political wheel in Afghanistan, rather the people. After four months, election results have still not been announced, leading to further speculation and anxiety among a population which has already been the victim of four decades of violent conflict in the country. This anxiety is further exacerbated by the ongoing “peace” negotiations with the Taliban. Afghan people have learned from experience that, even in the best-case scenario of the election results or peace negotiations, they cannot hope for new justice measures to heal their wounds. As demonstrated by the experience of Afghanistan and other countries, peace and security will not last without addressing the people’s demands for justice.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Politics, Elections, Taliban, and Justice
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Middle East

1881. Nationalist Underpinnings of Turkey’s Damaging “Kurdish” Policy

Author:
Max Erdemandi
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Recent discussions on the Turkish state’s actions, which have devastated Kurdish people within and outside of its borders, suffer from a familiar deficiency: they neglect the historical and cultural foundations of the dynamics that placed the Kurdish people at the center of Turkey’s national security policy. Serious human rights violations and voter suppression in southeast Turkey, the massacre of Kurdish people in various parts of northern Syria, and purging of Kurdish politicians on false accusations are all extensions of Turkey’s decades-long, repeated policy mistakes, deeply rooted in its nationalist history. Unless there is a seismic shift in the drivers of Turkish security policy, especially as it pertains to the Kurdish people, Turkey is bound to repeat these mistakes. Furthermore, threat externalization with linkage to legitimacy of rule will further erode the democratic institutions of the state and other authentic aspects of Turkish identity.
Topic:
Security, Nationalism, Ethnicity, Syrian War, Borders, Violence, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

1882. Ambassador Richard Morningstar on Energy and Geopolitics in the Caspian Region

Author:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs and Richard L. Morningstar
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On November 18, the Georgetown School of Foreign Service welcomed former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Richard Morningstar for a conversation on energy security in the Caspian region. Prior to the event, GJIA sat down with Ambassador Morningstar to discuss the intersection of energy and geopolitics, legacies from the Soviet Union, and energy security challenges facing Central Asian states.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Interview
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Soviet Union, Caspian Sea, and United States of America

1883. Minister Helen McEntee on Brexit, the Good Friday Agreement, and Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs and Helen McEntee
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
On December 5, 2019, Georgetown University welcomed Ireland’s Minister of State for European Affairs, Helen McEntee, to the conference “Bridging the Atlantic: Ireland’s Role in EU-US Relations after Brexit.” Following the event, GJIA and The Europe Desk sat down with Minister McEntee to discuss the Good Friday Agreement, Brexit, and transatlantic relations. The Europe Desk is a podcast launched by the BMW Center for German and European Studies where leading experts discuss the most pertinent issues facing Europe and transatlantic cooperation today.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Negotiation, and Interview
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Ireland

1884. What Has Changed in the Turkish Coal Mining Industry Five Years After the Soma Mine Disaster?

Author:
H. Sebnem Düzgün
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Soma Mine Disaster (SMD) was the most massive mine disaster of the twenty-first century, with 301 fatalities. This was due to a mine fire in an underground coal mine. Although mine fires usually do not cause a large number of casualties in comparison with other explosions in underground coal mines, the SMD has an anomaly. The cause of the mine fire has not been precisely determined, though various groups of experts developed several hypotheses. Most of the fatalities were due to an inadequate safety culture, unstructured organizational and human performance, and improper decision-making and risk perception during the emergency management. So far, only minimal steps have been taken to improve the safety standards of the coal mines. Larger improvements are necessary to address the variety of factors that contributed to the disaster.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Labor Issues, Regulation, and Mining
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

1885. Iraq’s Power Sector: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Sujata Ashwarya
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Abstract:
Despite substantial efforts and investments in rebuilding Iraq’s infrastructure since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the country is still struggling to deliver on public services. Years of destruction in conflict, as well as alleged mismanagement and neglect, have taken a heavy toll on the country’s power infrastructure. Severe power cuts and rolling blackouts are endemic in Iraq today. Between 2014 and 2018, Islamic State terrorism inflicted billions of dollars in damage on the already dilapidated electricity infrastructure, causing a cumulative potential and actual loss of a whopping 7GW in generation and transmission capacities.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Business, Conflict, Services, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1886. The Intersection of Poetry and U.S.-Mexican Border Affairs in Natalie Scenters-Zapico’s “Lima :: Limón”

Author:
Gabriel Panuco-Mercado
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Natalie Scenters-Zapico is a poet from the United States-Mexico border towns of El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Her work, like her origin, is about borders. In her debut collection, The Verging Cities, Scenters-Zapico explores immigration, marriage, and femicide in the realm of border culture and identity [1]. She expands these themes in her second collection, Lima :: Limón, where she creates a scathing depiction of the brutal machismo that conditions a Mexican woman’s experience. Lima :: Limon is especially personal to Scenters-Zapico. Her lyrical passages draw from the music of her childhood. In an age where distorted narratives about immigration lead to family separation and threaten asylum seekers, Lima :: Limon’s intimacy is especially critical. Unlike the efficacy of border policy or trade negotiations, Scenters-Zapico’s personal narrative is undeniable—as are the harrowing experiences of millions of Mexican women.
Topic:
Immigration, Women, Borders, and Literature
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

1887. What Can FEMA Learn from the Historic 2017 Hurricane and Wildfire Seasons?

Author:
Jason Thomas Barnosky, Patrick S. Roberts, and Joie D. Acosta
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The 2017 hurricane and wildfire seasons were among the worst on record in the United States. The storms that year included three of the five costliest in the nation’s history: Harvey and Irma along the Gulf Coast, and Maria in the Caribbean. More than 70,000 wildfires scorched about 10 million acres. All told, these events affected the lives of nearly 47 million people, testing the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in unprecedented ways.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Governance, and Political Science
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1888. Hitting Home: Cyber-Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine and Its Impact on the United States

Author:
Yuriy Danyk, Chad Michael Briggs, and Tamara Maliarchuk
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The conflict in Ukraine has received renewed attention in Washington D.C., and it is worth considering the relevance of this conflict to US national security interests. The open conflict in eastern Ukraine since 2014 has been part of a larger hybrid war, including political and information warfare, cyber warfare, assassinations, promotion of corruption, and traditional (kinetic) warfare carried out by destructive geopolitical actors (DGAs) [1]. The conventional conflict cannot be taken out of context, and it is the less visible and “dark” aspects of hybrid warfare that should particularly worry the United States. Hybrid warfare consists of a wide spectrum of attacks, from conventional to covert, carried out to destabilize one’s opponent. Rather than being isolated incidents, cyber attacks often represent part of a wide spectrum of coordinated, offensive strategies against countries like Ukraine and the United States.
Topic:
National Security, War, Cybersecurity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

1889. Civilians Versus Their Governments: China, the United States, and the Changing Nature of Conflict and Security in Africa

Author:
Obert Hodzi
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
With a few exceptions, armed civil wars are no longer commonplace in Africa, but anti-government protests are. Instead of armed rebels, unarmed civilians are challenging regimes across Africa to reconsider their governance practices and deliver both political and economic change. In their responses, regimes in countries like Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Rwanda, and Burundi have favored the combat mode—responding to dissent with military and repressive means. With few options, civilian movements look to the United States for protection and support while their governments look to China for reinforcement. If the United States seeks to reassert its influence in Africa and strengthen its democratic influence, its strategy needs to go beyond counterterrorism and respond to Africa’s pressing needs while supporting the African people in their quest for democracy and human rights.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, State Violence, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1890. Civil-Military Relations in Pakistan: Positive Evolution or More of the Same?

Author:
David Smith
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Civilian governance in Pakistan has never lasted longer than eleven years. 2019 is the eleventh year since General Pervez Musharraf resigned the presidency and fears of a coup may exist, but one is not probable—at least not in the near-term future. In fact, two recent Chiefs of Army Staff (COAS)—Generals Kayani and Raheel in 2009 and 2014, respectively—considered taking, but decided not to take, direct control of the government. These decisions demonstrate that military rule is no longer necessary because the Army has already attained its major goals of de facto control of the country’s nuclear and missile programs, key foreign relationships, the military budget, and national security decision-making. In effect, the military has achieved what I have previously termed a “coup-less coup.” Instead of the traditionally fraught civil-military relationship, it seems that, for the first time in Pakistan’s turbulent history, the government and military agree on the three major issues facing Pakistan: domestic politics, the economy, and India. However, key variables, such as economic stability, could quickly change the course of this relationship.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Governance, Conflict, Civilians, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

1891. Catching Up: China’s Developing Military Power

Author:
Ian Williams
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
For decades, China has engaged in a fervent game of “catch-up” with U.S. military capabilities. This effort, which has ballooned China’s defense spending to 620 percent of its 1990 level, is beginning to bear real fruit. While still far from achieving military parity, China’s military technology and doctrine are quickly coalescing into a coherent form of warfare, tailored to overpowering the U.S. military in a short, sharp conflict in the Eastern Pacific. This strategy of “informationized” warfare focuses first on eroding U.S. situational awareness, communications, and precision targeting capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Weapons, Military Spending, Conflict, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1892. Building a Multi-Directional Transnational Solidarity Movement

Author:
Jeff Bachman
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Transnational solidarity movements have typically flowed from a central point located in the West, particularly in the United States, to the East and the Global South. Shadi Mokhtari describes this phenomenon as the “traditional West-to-East flow of human rights mobilizations and discourses.” Viewed individually, this phenomenon is not problematic in all cases. However, as Mokhtari argues, this one-directional flow of human rights politics precludes non-Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from weighing in on human rights violations committed in the United States. Human rights violations in the United States are typically experienced by marginalized communities, from the mass incarceration and disenfranchisement of African-Americans to the detention and ill-treatment of immigrants, migrants, and refugees. For a truly global human rights movement to emerge—one that is not grounded in Western paternalism and perceived moral superiority—this must change.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Post Colonialism, Immigration, Refugees, NGOs, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

1893. Big Tech, Antitrust, and Breakup

Author:
Michael A. Carrier
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Big Tech is in the news. At the center of our political and economic dialogue is the effect that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have on our lives and what, if anything, governments should do about it. In this article, I explain how Big Tech has come under scrutiny, the antitrust implications of the industry’s behavior, and the potential remedy of breaking up the companies.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Science and Technology, Regulation, Internet, Social Media, and Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

1894. Alcohol Policies in Australia: Indigenous Activism and International Blueprints

Author:
Maggie Brady
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity, a book sponsored by the World Health Organization (WHO) and boasting fifteen international authors, describes alcohol policies as authoritative decisions made by government or non-government groups designed to minimize or prevent the adverse consequences of alcohol consumption. This compilation of high-quality research and advice, in addition to the WHO’s other channels of communication, provides a blueprint for action for WHO member states designed to help governments around the world make national policies. This is necessary because many countries have no clear alcohol policies at all. Uganda, for example, has not reviewed its liquor laws since the 1960s, and China has no systematic data collection, legally enforceable drinking age, nor regulation over sales, despite rising alcohol consumption.
Topic:
Health, World Health Organization, Governance, Culture, Public Policy, Indigenous, and Alcohol
Political Geography:
Australia and Australia/Pacific

1895. National Security Update 12: Status of 2020 Defense Authorization/Appropriations and NDAA Highlights

Author:
Jack Kelly
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:
Our twelfth IFPA National Security Update examines the current status of the U.S. defense authorization, appropriations, and budget process with a focus on the Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and assesses its strengths and weaknesses in light of key programs and policies discussed in previous Updates. Topics addressed in our National Security Update series include hypersonic missiles, missile defense priorities, nuclear modernization issues, President Trump's Executive Order on Electromagnetic Pulse, the status of the Space Force, China’s actions in the South China Sea and U.S. options, and the military applications of artificial intelligence. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, National Security, Budget, Weapons, Missile Defense, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, North America, South China, and United States of America

1896. The Gender of Work

Author:
Gala Díaz Langou, Gimena de León, José Florito, Florencia Caro Sachetti, Alejandro Biondi, and Matilde Karczmarczyk
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
The Gender of Work is the result of a joint initiative between CIPPEC, the International Labor Organization, UN Women and the United Nations Development Program. It focuses on diagnosing the gender gaps that violate the economic rights of women in Argentina, and to present policy suggestions for removing the obstacles that make it impossible for women’s trajectories in the labor market to be substantively equal to those of men. In the Latin American context specifically (but not exclusively), there are three key issues that public policies should take into account when attempting to close the gender gaps in the exercise of economic autonomy. These can be summarized as (1) a human-rights perspective on substantive gender equality, that connects it with sustainable development priorities as described in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and approved by the United Nations in 2015; (2) the acknowledgement of intersectionality and interculturality when tackling discriminative societal structures and (3) the principle of integrality as fundamental to the achievement of physical, decision-making, and economic autonomy.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

1897. Global Governance in 2030: Prospective Scenarios on the Future of Politics

Author:
Julia Pomares and María Belén Abdala
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
We are living in an era of unprecedented changes. Mature democracies, emerging polities and the least electorally competitive countries are now facing new challenges in a globalized world. They are all dealing with technological breakthroughs, changes in global economic power, ageing populations and urbanization of their territories. Today’s picture shows that social inclusion seems to be an unfulfilled promise, and social cohesion is weakening. Some citizens are disenchanted, and political systems are having trouble adapting and responding to new demands. According to Edelman’s Trust Barometer (2017), one in every two countries does not have faith in the system, and we still do not know how this picture is going to evolve. In democracies, pro-democracy attitudes coexist with openness to nondemocratic forms of governance, such as rule by experts (49 per cent), strong leaders (26 per cent) or the military (24 per cent). This picture might be part of a transition period or indicating that polities are not being able to cope with some of the new challenges. It is why we need to think about the future of politics and how these trends will shape global governance in the next 10 to 20 years. Are political systems ready to govern a digital economy? How should political leaders evolve to address radical changes in an automated world? What will the consequences be for global governance and for the role of G20? This paper analyzes current global trends in domestic politics and the prospective scenarios on the future of politics. To do so, the paper presents a brief description on three forces we know will forge the future: technological breakthroughs, demographic changes and shifts in global economic power. Later, it turns to the uncertainty of the future. We live in nation states, so we first attempt to devise how these forces will shape domestic politics. We then look at global governance and the way these trends will impact upon it. The final stop of this journey is an analysis of the implications of these scenarios for the role of the G20.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1898. The Recycling of Lithium-Ion Batteries: A Strategic Pillar for the European Battery Alliance

Author:
Raphaël Danino-Perraud
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Although it is still marginal, the market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing. According to the French Institute of Petroleum and Renewable Energies (IFPEN, Institut Français du Pétrole et des Énergies Renouvelables), EVs accounted for a little more than 2% of the light vehicle market in 2019. This was up by 54% compared to 2018, but EVs still only represent 0.8% of the global car fleet. That said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates EVs could make up between 15% and 30% of vehicle sales in 2030. However, while European manufacturers have so far developed EVs such as the Renault Zoé or the BMW i3, they are highly dependent on Asian companies for the supply and manufacture of materials for cells and electric batteries, such as nickel, cobalt, lithium used to build precursors, or cathodes and their components. Asia provides more than 90% of world car battery output, half of which comes from China alone. European dependence is not only related to the manufacture of batteries, but occurs throughout much of their value chain, from extraction and processing of raw materials to the preparation of necessary treatment processes for recycling. The recycling market for batteries from small electronic objects (smartphones, computers, tablets, etc.) has also been led by Asian countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Business, and Recycling
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

1899. Confettis d’empire ou points d’appui? L’avenir de la stratégie française de présence et de souveraineté

Author:
Élie Tenenbaum, Morgan Paglia, and Nathalie Ruffié
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
France is one of the few nations in the world to benefit from a permanent global military presence. With more than 10,000 military personnel from all three services, deployed across the five continents and the three main oceanic basins, it benefits from the second largest network of prepositioned forces in the world. This global military posture is structured around five “presence forces”, based in Senegal, Ivory Coast, Gabon, Djibouti and the United Arab Emirates, as well as five “sovereignty forces” in the dependent overseas territories of the Antilles, French Guyana, Southern Indian Ocean, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Over the past twenty years, this unique force posture has been hit by a series of deep budgetary cuts, translating into staff reductions and persisting delays in equipment delivery. As a result, the current military presence is under serious strain, as some capability are now weighing on the ability of these prepositioned forces to contribute as much as they could to the five strategic functions reiterated in the 2017 Strategic Review. These considerations are all the more important given the coming demographic, climatic, economic, geopolitical, and of course military challenges that will dramatically constrain the operational environment of the French forces in the coming years.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, France, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

1900. Does Soleimani’s Death Matter? Findings from a 2019 Workshop

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last year’s Washington Institute forum on post-Soleimani succession suggested that the IRGC would lose a unique coordinating capability and its most important totem once he left the scene. Last April, The Washington Institute held a closed-door roundtable to discuss the potential impact if Qassem Soleimani no longer commanded the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force. Governed by the Chatham House rule, participants discussed how succession might work in the Qods Force and what Iran would lose if Soleimani became permanently unavailable, reaching consensus on many key issues. Now that the commander is indeed gone, their conclusions can help policymakers navigate the stormy seas ahead, though some aspects of his importance remain a matter of heated debate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East