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1902. State Authority Restoration in the Central African Republic: The Striking Gap Between Its Past, Its Potential, and People’s Expectations
- Author:
- Tim Glawion
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Central African Republic (CAR) could be a case of hope. After years of violence, the main armed groups and the government signed a peace agreement last year. At the end of 2020, elections are set to take place that could strengthen the democratic credentials of the country and grant its institutions the legitimacy needed to rebuild the state. As surveys have shown the populace is tired of the armed groups scattered (and fighting) throughout the country and demand the return of the state. The state is building up its army and deploying troops across a growing part of the country’s territory with the help of international actors. However, the restoration of state authority in the CAR remains unlikely. The state’s history is one of neglect, meaning there remains little to be “restored” and much to be built in the first place. Whether the state is willing and able to live up to the population’s demands is questionable. The military approach to state authority restoration and the integration of armed actors risks marginalizing the calls for an emphasis on public services. Locals hope for the return of the state—and one that is robust and caring. The reality of a militarized and inefficient state would shatter these hopes.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Governance, State, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Central African Republic
1903. Libya’s Civil War: US Abdication Providing a Playground for Foreign Intervention
- Author:
- Jonathan Winer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar initiated his effort to take Libya’s capital, Tripoli, by force on April 4, 2019, Libya has remained in a state of full-on civil war. The conflict involves not only competing forces within the country, but also foreign powers using Libyan clients as proxies for their regional interests. These external actors—primarily the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Turkey, plus a host of supporting players—continue to exacerbate the chaos as they maneuver for long-term power. Meanwhile, the United States is absent.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil War, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
1904. Peace in Northern Ireland: A Model for Ending Wars?
- Author:
- Iain King
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- When Good Friday fell on April 10 this year, it was exactly twenty-two years to the day after Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement was signed. That watershed deal of 1998 cemented peace in the Province—a peace that has lasted almost as long as the conflict it brought to an end.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Northern Ireland
1905. In the Shadow of the British Empire: International Law and the State of Decolonization
- Author:
- Quentin Levin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The sun may have set on the British Empire, but its shadow lingers over modern Britain’s foreign policy. Britain retains fourteen minor overseas territories worldwide, though its global ambitions lie beyond these vestiges of its empire. Today, the United Kingdom is a nation on the move—it is just not yet sure where. Its people resolved in a 2016 referendum to reverse European integration, rekindle economic ties with the Commonwealth, and strengthen the “Special Relationship” with the United States. Yet, as Britain attempts to reassert its national sovereignty, it is haunted by the specter of its imperialist past and the constraints imposed by international institutions it helped strengthen.
- Topic:
- International Law, History, Decolonization, and Empire
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
1906. Preparing for the Inevitable: Climate Change and the Military
- Author:
- Esther Sperling
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The US military maintains almost $1.2 trillion worth of installations worldwide, allowing the United States to sustain critical capabilities and respond to crises around the globe. Outdated and degraded infrastructure limits the military’s ability to respond. The growing impacts of climate change exacerbate the challenge of modernizing and maintaining infrastructure. Climate change’s impact on military installations can be broken down into four main categories: sea level rise, extreme storms, extreme drought and heat, and Arctic ice melt. While Congress has passed bipartisan legislation to address the threat, the Department of Defense (DoD) must take additional steps to adapt to the challenges of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Military Affairs, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
1907. Epidemics and Pandemics as Transnational Issues: The Challenge of the Novel Coronavirus
- Author:
- Robert Kim-Farley and Lauren Dunning
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The first recorded pandemic occurred during the Peloponnesian War in 430 B.C. Suspected to be due to typhoid fever, the pandemic contributed to the Spartan victory over the Athenians. Since then, infectious diseases have had a significant impact on the course of human history. The explosive outbreak of the new novel coronavirus, COVID-19, was first identified in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province in the People’s Republic of China. The outbreak is again challenging the global community, its governance structures, and its mechanisms for international collaboration. Many key data points critical to fully characterizing the disease epidemiology of COVID-19—including transmissibility, potential for asymptomatic spread, and risk factors for severe illness or death—are still emerging; as a result, a collective global response under strong World Health Organization (WHO) leadership, followed by subsequent nation-level implementation, is vital to ensuring the good of the many is not sacrificed for the good of the few. COVID-19 is in the same family as the coronavirus of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the spread of which in 2002-2003 caused the first pandemic of the twenty-first century. It prompted the creation of an ad-hoc Emergency Committee (EC) composed of international experts convened under the International Health Regulations (IHR) that inform the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General. The IHR, which were last revised in 2005 following the SARS outbreak and subsequent calls for reform, obligate 196 state parties, including all WHO member states, to broadly work together to enhance global health security.
- Topic:
- Governance, Multilateralism, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1908. Business as Usual, Unusually: North Korea’s Illicit Trade with China and Russia
- Author:
- Neil Watts
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- While the global economy is shuddering under repeated blows from the coronavirus-induced economic contagion, North Korea continues to sustain its fortress economy. North Korea—known by its formal title as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)—continues to grab headlines amidst the global turmoil with its staged ballistic missile launches and, less noticeably, its ongoing illicit trade. Despite the combination of a comprehensive United Nations sanctions regime and stringent unilateral sanctions imposed by individual countries and the European Union, the isolated country somehow continues undeterred, and sustains its nuclear and ballistic missile programs without missing a beat. A great deal has been written about the regime’s ability to prevail, and many theories abound, but the inevitable conclusion is the old adage that all roads lead to Rome—or, in this case, Beijing.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Business, Multilateralism, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
1909. National Security Upate 13: Accessing the Technologies and Capabilities of the U.S. Commercial High-Tech Sector: A Defense Department Priority
- Author:
- Jack Kelly
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- Our thirteenth IFPA National Security Update examines the growing need of the Department of Defense to access and leverage the advanced dual-use technologies increasingly being developed in the commercial high-tech sector to maintain U.S. technological and military superiority. It focuses on the impediments facing the U.S. government and Defense Department in accessing commercial high-tech technologies, strategies and policies to remove these impediments, specific programs and initiatives to address the problem, and the concerns about the growing technological and military capabilities of China. Topics addressed in our National Security Update series include the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act, hypersonic missiles, military applications of artificial intelligence, missile defense priorities, the Trump Administration’s Executive Order on Electromagnetic Pulse, the status of the Space Force, and China’s actions in the South China Sea and U.S. options.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- China, North America, and United States of America
1910. National Security Update 14: The Impact of the Coronavirus on Future Defense Budgets
- Author:
- Jack Kelly
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
- Abstract:
- Our fourteenth IFPA National Security Update examines the potential impact of the coronavirus on future U.S. defense budgets and the need for the Department of Defense to prioritize its programs and technology development efforts in the new budget environment caused by the global pandemic. The pandemic coincides with and intensifies threats and challenges facing the United States. These include not only heightening tensions with China but also likely efforts on the part of other adversaries to take advantage of perceived U.S. vulnerabilities. Topics addressed in our National Security Update series have included the Defense Department’s approaches to access advanced technologies developed in the commercial hightech sector; the FY2020 National Defense Authorization Act; hypersonic missiles; missile defense priorities; nuclear modernization issues; President Trump's Executive Order on Electromagnetic Pulse; the status of the Space Force; China’s actions in the South China Sea and U.S. options; and the military applications of artificial intelligence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Budget, Weapons, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1911. The New Weapon of Choice: Technology and Information Operations Today
- Author:
- Kelly M. McFarland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- In recent years, a growing number of governments, non-state actors, and citizens have rapidly expanded their use of pernicious information operations against other countries and even their fellow citizens. Social media and the internet have become the main tool. The current technological revolution has lowered the cost of entry for those wishing to spread misinformation and disinformation. Some use the internet to propagate an alternative version of the global order they seek to dominate, to damage a regional rival, or to influence their own or others’ elections. The players, tactics, tools, and topics will continue to expand in the months and years ahead, and the coronavirus pandemic has only enhanced the salience of these activities. Information operation campaigns sow confusion, further divide deeply partisan societies, and are an existential threat to democracies around the world. Thus far, governmental, tech sector, and civil society responses have fallen short, although some have fared better than others. In fall 2019 and the spring 2020, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy convened a series of working group meetings that included academics and practitioners, private sector specialists, and representatives from civil society. The attendees mapped out this space and identified the challenges inherent in this new form of incipient and widespread information operations. This group also identified potential areas of further engagement, collaboration, and research within the private sector, academia, and civil society. Ultimately, the group came up with a set of principles and policy recommendations for governments, private sector companies, and civil society to enact in both the near-and-long-term in order to mitigate information operations.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, and Information Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
1912. The COVID-19 Pandemic: Counterterrorism Practitioners’ Assessments
- Author:
- James Wither and Richard Masek
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020 arguably created the greatest global security challenge since 1945. Faced with this unanticipated threat, scholars and practitioners from the security and counterterrorism fields have struggled to understand and assess the impact of the pandemic on global and domestic terrorism.1 Many terrorist groups and individual extremists reacted with enthusiasm to the pandemic. Salafi-jihadist and far-right extremists, in particular, claimed that the pandemic vindicated their very different ideological standpoints and called for attacks while affected states were at their most vulnerable. However, outside of areas already impacted by armed conflict like the Sahel, there has not been a rise in terrorist attacks during the pandemic. Terrorists of all kinds have stepped up their propaganda, hoping to influence anxious people largely confined to their homes by lockdowns and compelled to spend more time on the Internet and social media. However, the extent to which terrorists have successfully attracted new converts to their cause or active recruits during the crisis still remains uncertain. The pandemic has also raised the specter of bio-terrorism, as there were fears that terrorists might try to use COVID–19 as a biological weapon. Early in the crisis, some extremists used the internet to encourage infected individuals to spread the virus in public places, but there is little evidence of such activities being carried out. As regards more sophisticated attacks, some terrorist groups in the past have aspired to employ bio-terrorism, but the necessary weapons have always proved too difficult for terrorists to successfully develop or deliver. Despite the calls for attacks on social media, the pandemic’s lockdowns, increased surveillance, the ban on gatherings, and travel restrictions, coupled with a heavy police and military presence on the ground in some cities have created a challenging environment for terrorist operations. But as governments continue to focus their efforts on combating the virus, normal security protocols may be reduced or abandoned. In most countries, the security services have been drawn directly into efforts to counter the pandemic and to an extent have been affected by social distancing and other restrictions employed to combat the virus. There are also concerns that international cooperation to combat terrorism will be reduced as countries focus more narrowly on domestic priorities. Many governments have resorted to emergency legislation to allow the police to enforce lockdowns and social isolation. This is normal behavior for autocratic governments, but unprecedented in liberal democracies, at least during peacetime. Repressive legislation allows intrusive surveillance, detention, and prevents freedom of assembly and movement. Although traditionally there has been no direct link between poverty and terrorism, socio-economic hardships caused by the pandemic are also likely to be severe, especially in the developing world. Government repression is a common trigger for acts of terrorism as it can turn already aggrieved citizens into violent extremists. To date, the COVID–19 pandemic has highlighted governments’ lack of preparedness, social inequalities and macro-economic failings. It would be premature, however, to conclude that the coronavirus crisis will inspire new forms of anti-state terrorism or turn largely non-violent anti-globalization and environmentalist groups into violent extremists. In the longer term, it remains to be seen whether counterterrorism will retain the priority it has been given since 9/11 in terms of financial, technical, and manpower resources. Public health as a national security priority may command a much greater share of resources than ever before. Given the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on public finances, budget cuts to the security services may be more severe than after the financial crisis in 2008-2009, which could create new vulnerabilities for terrorist groups to exploit. The aim of this report is to provide further insights into the issues outlined above by providing data on the preliminary impact of COVID–19 supplied by over 400 military and civilian counterterrorism professionals surveyed by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies’ (GCMC) Program in Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) faculty team.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1913. Pakistan Security Report 2019
- Author:
- Safdar Sial, Muhammad Amir Rana, Umar Farooq, Anam Fatima, Muhammad Akba Notezai, and Najam U Din
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS)
- Abstract:
- In 2019, Pakistan witnessed a further decline in the number of terrorist incidents and consequent casualties. The statistics of Pakistan Security Report 2019 show that terrorist attacks this year decreased by around 13 percent as compared to 2018, and the number of people killed in these attacks plummeted by 40pc. Indeed, there has been a gradual decrease in terrorist attacks and casualties since 2009 (with the exception of 2013, when a surge in sectarian violence mainly contributed to a rise in attacks and casualties). Continuous anti-militant operational and surveillance campaigns by security forces and police counterterrorism departments, as well as some counter-extremism actions taken under the National Action Plan, have apparently helped sustain that declining trend 2013 onwards. However, these plummeting numbers do not suggest, in any way, that the threat of terrorism has been completely eliminated. Certainly, most terrorist groups have been weakened but they are still present in physical and virtual spaces.
- Topic:
- National Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Countering Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan
1914. Cartel Presence by State; Jalisco Nueva Generacion Cartel(CJNG) Achieves the Top Spot in the Country-Wide Territorial Campaign, Surpassing Sinaloa Cartel’s Control Throughout Mexico
- Author:
- Machiko Olivera
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- TRAC: Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium
- Abstract:
- Despite the fact that the federal government has ordered the deployment of the armed forces in the country to combat drug traffickers, at least nineteen (19) cartels have active operations throughout the country, of which four (4) have a presence in more than ten (10) state – Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) being the largest.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Violent Extremism, Trafficking, Drugs, and Legal Sector
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico
1915. Defending the Right to Health in Guatemala: Reflections of Two Indigenous Women on the Frontlines
- Author:
- Benilda Batzin, Paulina Culum, and Julia Fischer-Mackey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
- Abstract:
- The Guatemalan Constitution guarantees the right to health for all Guatemalans, but indigenous citizens face multiple barriers in accessing public health services. In addition to the transportation challenges and under-resourced facilities faced by rural communities around the world, indigenous Guatemalans face racial and linguistic discrimination and corrupt officials demanding fees for free public services. Two organizations that formed to combat these problems are the Center for the Study of Equity and Governance in Health Systems (Centro de Estudios para la Equidad y Gobernanza en los Sistemas de Salud, or CEGSS) and the Network of Community Defenders of the Right to Health (Red de Defensores y Defensoras Comunitarios por el Derecho a la Salud, or REDC-Salud). REDC-Salud volunteer health defenders educate citizens about their rights, provide accompaniment to patients, monitor health services, and advocate for health system improvements. The CEGSS team provides technical support and capacity building to REDC-Salud members and coordinates monitoring and advocacy at the municipal, departmental and national levels. In the following interview excerpts, Benilda Batzin of CEGSS and Paulina Culum of REDC-Salud describe how they work together to make government health systems more accountable to all citizens. Benilda and Paulina’s unique approach involves mobilizing established community leaders to engage on health access issues at multiple levels of government and forming alliances with groups including the national Human Rights Ombuds. As Maya Tz’utujil women from Sololá, Western Guatemala, Benilda and Paulina faced multiple barriers to civic participation and leadership. And yet, their commitment to bringing positive change to their communities have led them to initiate and join organizations and acquire new skills. Those skills and leadership qualities have been widely recognized and resulted in formal and informal opportunities to lead: Benilda was elected by her colleagues to become Executive Director of CEGSS and was invited to give testimony at the United Nations General Assembly; Paulina chairs her town’s Community Development Council, has served as the national chairperson for the Tz’utujil Women’s Organization and mentors young female activists. This Note highlights strategies and accomplishments of these leaders and their organizations while reminding us of the work yet to be done by activists and their allies to defend the rights of all Guatemalans.
- Topic:
- Women, Accountability, Indigenous, Public Health, Community Engagement, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
1916. From Peoples' Struggles to Public Policy: The Institutionalization of the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability in India
- Author:
- Rakshita Swamy and Aruna Roy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
- Abstract:
- This Accountability Note describes and explains a set of principles for social accountability that emerged out of the struggles of some of the most marginalized people in India. Although firmly rooted in the experience of local resistance, the Bhilwara Framework of Social Accountability speaks directly to national and global struggles for accountability. The essential elements of the Bhilwara Framework were first framed by Dalit activists fighting discrimination and structural injustice, who reflected on and theorized about the causes of their marginalization. These elements were then accepted, developed further, and disseminated by activists and social movements. This Note discusses the social origins of the Bhilwara Framework and explains how each of the six principles was derived and applied. The principles include: 1. Access to meaningful and usable information; 2. The formal registration of citizen grievances; 3. The need for time-bound inquiry processes; 4. Platforms for citizen participation; 5. Protection of complainants against reprisal; and 6. Public and collective spaces in which citizens can dialogue with their state. This Note also describes how the Framework was refined and expanded, and how it was consequently institutionalized within the state. Unlike most activists’ agendas, the Bhilwara Framework has made the transition from concept to policy. India’s Supreme Audit Institution and Comptroller and Auditor General used the Bhilwara Framework to develop a set of minimum standards for social audits. The Framework has also been used to frame state and national policies on accountability for social justice and security for Dalits, rights holders accessing their entitlements under the right to work, food security, education, etc., urban poor workers, and other marginalized groups. It also informs an ongoing attempt to draft a legal framework for accountability by the Rajasthan State Government, a fitting tribute to where the struggle for these principles began. The Framework has helped define and develop the practice of ‘independent facilitation,’ which refers to the efforts made by the State to provide institutionalized platforms, institutions, and processes for enabling citizens to hold the State to account, that are independent of the latter’s control and interests. Similar breakthroughs have been made in contemporary grievance redress reforms. Recognizing that complainants will face difficulty and perhaps intimidation while registering a grievance at the very office that is the cause of the grievance, the Bihar Public Grievance Redress Law mandates Information and Facilitation Centers to provide single window support centers for information, to register grievances and track their status, an independent officer to hear appeals, and a wide scope in the definition of a complaint. The Framework served as the point of reference for State and civil society jointly building the country’s first web portal for mandatory disclosure of information (the Jan Soochna Portal). It has played an instrumental role in forming the basis of wider conceptions of social audits in tribal autonomous regions, labor welfare schemes and corrective or rehabilitation institutions run by the State. These interconnected efforts have emerged from concerted grassroots struggles and refined by social movements and ordinary citizens and users of India’s various rights-based legislation. These essential struggles deepen social accountability strategies, rooting them firmly in social justice and participatory democracy.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democracy, Social Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Marginalization, and Community Engagement
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
1917. Meet the Moment: A Call for Progressive Philanthropic Response to the Anti-Gender Movement
- Author:
- Teddy Wilson, Jenna Capeci, and Gitta Zomorodi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
- Abstract:
- In early 2020, Global Philanthropy Project worked with our member organizations and philanthropic partners to develop two related pieces of private research: 1) a report mapping the funding of the global “anti-gender ideology” or “anti-gender” movement, and 2) a report mapping the progressive philanthropic response. We offer the following public document in order to share key learning and to offer additional analysis gained in the comparison of the two reports. Additionally, we share insights based on comparing global and regional LGBTI funding data as documented in the 2017-2018 Global Resources Report: Government and Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities. These findings offer a clear call to action: progressive movements and their philanthropic partners are being outspent by hundreds of millions of dollars each year, and the institutions providing that opposition funding have developed sophisticated and coordinated systems to learn, co-fund, and expand their influence. The philanthropic community is called to recognize the scale of the fight and to be both rigorous and creative in our response. Let us seize this remarkable opportunity to work together and engage our collective learning, spending power, and institutional knowledge to help transform the conditions of our communities. Together we can leverage the collective power that this generational crisis demands.
- Topic:
- LGBT+, Progressivism, Philanthropy, Funding, Transgender, and Gender Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Asia, South America, Global Focus, and United States of America
1918. COVID-19 Future Trends: Impacts on Children and the Search for Opportunities
- Author:
- Sol Pradelli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Elevate Children Funders Group
- Abstract:
- This short thought-piece was commissioned by ECFG in September 2020 to help members navigate the uncertainty around how COVID would impact children in the longer-term. The paper includes a desk review of the impacts of previous pandemics and economic crises on children; an overview of likely impacts for children of the COVID crisis, including projections by age cohort; four potential scenarios and related planning questions; recommendations for funding, advocacy, and research; and a bibliography of key resources and reports.
- Topic:
- Children, Advocacy, COVID-19, Funding, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1919. Cybersecurity (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on cybersecurity written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of cybersecurity.
- Topic:
- Education, National Security, Cybersecurity, Norms, and Syllabus
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Africa, India, North America, and Global Focus
1920. Constructivism (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on Constructivism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of Constructivism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Education, Constructivism, and Norms
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1921. Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on arms control and non-proliferation written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of arms control and non-proliferation.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Education, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1922. Beijing+25: Accelerating Progress for Women and Girls
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women and Jeni Klugman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Beijing+25: Accelerating Progress for Women and Girls is a roadmap to advance global gender equality authored by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security (GIWPS), with support from The Rockefeller Foundation and in collaboration with Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton. Marking the 25th anniversary of the United Nations Fourth World Conference on Women, which took place in Beijing, China in 1995, the new report builds upon the original Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. Since 1995, there have been some important gains for women and girls, including parity in education in many countries, far fewer deaths in childbirth, more women elected to parliament and leadership positions in government and business, and reduced discrimination under the law. Yet major inequalities have persisted, only to be exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Part I of the report documents serious challenges such as the stagnation of women’s income and wages, discrimination depriving women of fair wages, and how women still carry the burden of unpaid work at home. Violence against women also remains a global scourge, and women remain largely excluded from decision-making in governments (from local to the highest levels), in peace negotiations, and in corporate leadership. With this as the backdrop, Part II provides a deeper dive into five key areas for progress including: (1) changing problematic gender norms; (2) enforcing and resourcing policies that promote equality; (3) countering growing backlash to gender equality; (4) fostering inclusive democracy and climate justice; and (5) harnessing technology as a means to promote women’s economic empowerment and protection from violence. Part III proposes a course of action to leverage multiple actors—from civil society and youth, male allies and traditional authorities, through to the business community and multilateral agencies. When taken together, they not only accelerate progress for women and girls, but also build a better world for all. The report was written by a GIWPS team led by Dr. Jeni Klugman, Managing Director of GIWPS.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Science and Technology, United Nations, Women, Inequality, Income Inequality, Economy, Youth, COVID-19, Girls, Empowerment, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1923. Women Building Resilient Cities in the Context of Climate Change
- Author:
- Molly Kellogg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- United Nations Security Council Resolution 2242 recognized climate change as an important consideration for the peace and security of women and girls. Women – marginalized in economic, political, and social spheres in many contexts – have even fewer available resources to cope with climate-related disasters as they face unique and often disproportionate risks. Yet despite the challenges posed by climate change and gender inequality, evidence shows that women are actively contributing to building resilient cities. In urban contexts, women are carving paths to inclusion across multiple levels of local governance and helping communities become safer and more prepared to cope with disasters. Field work in Freetown, Sierra Leone, reveals that women engaged in local governance are leading the charge for resilience building. This report distinguishes two key modes of engagement: formal representation, and community-based organizations or civil society networks. Local government shapes how residents experience risk, through providing services such as water or waste management, or planning future land use. In informal settlements, where local government is less reliable, informal structures of organizing can help build resilience, as through designing community-based early warning systems or forming savings cooperatives that allow households to bounce back after a disaster. Interventions from NGOs can fill gaps in service delivery and help link community-based initiative to government planning. While the gender narrative for climate-related risks in urban areas has focused on women’s vulnerabilities, this report illustrates that women are also making important contributions to building resilient cities. Its findings point to five key recommendations for policy-makers and development practitioners to empower the voices and actions of women in local governance: Invest in community-based organizations in informal settlement communities. Promote collaboration between formal and informal governance bodies. Design projects that are climate-responsive and gender-responsive. Amplify the voices – and actions – of women change agents. Conduct gender-responsive data collection in informal settlements. This research was supported by the Laudato Si’ Fund. Key findings from this report are featured as a chapter in new UN report published jointly by UN Environment Programme (UNEP), UN Women, the UN Development Programme (UNDP), and the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (UNDPPA).
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Women, Cities, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sierra Leone
1924. Movements for Inclusion (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus related to movements for inclusion: Specifically, there is: Disability Rights Ethnic, Religious and Linguistic Minority Rights Indigenous Rights Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Rights Scholarly writing on movements for inclusion written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity, and inclusion-related dimensions of movements for inclusion.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Religion, Ethnicity, Linguistics, Disability, LGBT+, Indigenous, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1925. How Did Conflict Affect Women’s Economic Opportunities in Sub‑Saharan Africa?
- Author:
- Jeni Klugman and Turkan Mukhtarova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Prior research suggests that in times of conflict, women seek paid work for various reasons. But do these shifts last post-conflict? The authors analyze women’s labor force participation and employment trends in six conflict-affected Sub-Saharan African countries: Burundi, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Rwanda. The report finds there are significantly higher labor force participation rates among women, both in absolute numbers and relative to men’s participation, in these conflict-affected countries compared to peer countries. However, while conflict expanded women’s economic opportunities, it did not transform or improve the quality of jobs available to them. Most women continue to work in agriculture, often lacking decent working conditions and adequate social security. A deeper investigation of Liberia suggests that conflict-related disruptions expanded women’s economic opportunities. The predicted employment likelihood rose significantly between 1986 (three years before the conflict) and 2007 (four years after the end of the conflict) for all Liberian women, but especially among married women.
- Topic:
- Economics, Labor Issues, Women, Conflict, Participation, and Opportunity
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Liberia, Rwanda, Burundi, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire, and Sub-Saharan Africa
1926. Explaining Trends in the Frequency of Gender Provisions in Peace Agreements, 1990–2019
- Author:
- Agathe Christien and Turkan Mukhtarova
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates trends in the presence of gender provisions in peace agreements. The authors analyzed 352 peace agreements in 64 countries between 1990 and 2019 to see whether gender provisions were included and to identify which factors influence the likelihood of such provisions. The key findings have important implications for advancing gender mainstreaming in peace processes. Good news: Up through 2013, there had been a significant increase in the share of peace agreements with gender provisions, from below 10 percent in the 1990s to 45 percent in 2013. Bad news: the share has plummeted since 2013, to a new low of 11 percent in 2018. In 2019, the share of agreements with gender provisions rebounded to 29 percent, but remained below the 2013 peak. Which factors influence the likelihood of gender provisions in peace agreements? KEY FINDING 1 Participatory processes and the democratization of peace negotiations is significantly associated with increases in the likelihood of adopting gender provisions. When women are parties to the negotiations and civil society organizations are official third parties to the agreement, gender provisions are more likely. However, such participatory processes in peace negotiations remain far from the norm. KEY FINDING 2 International involvement and mediation—especially by United Nations peacekeepers, other states, or regional organizations—has a significant impact on mainstreaming gender in peace settlements. Although we did not find a statistically significant association between UN involvement as a third party and the adoption of gender provisions, states or regional organizations in official third-party roles—such as mediators, witnesses, and observers to the negotiations—is correlated with an increase in the likelihood of adopting gender provisions. The presence of UN Peacekeeping in conflict-affected countries was also found to be associated with an increase in the likelihood of adopting gender provisions. KEY FINDING 3 Better scores on gender-equality indicators at the country level do not always guarantee that peace agreements will have gender provisions. While increased female parliamentary representation is linked to an increased likelihood of adopting gender provisions, somewhat surprisingly equal rights and opportunities for women under the law is not. KEY FINDING 4 Peace agreements that are ceasefire related are associated with a lower likelihood of adopting gender provisions. Ceasefire agreements tend to focus on the cessation of hostilities between warring parties and are usually less comprehensive than framework agreements, which address more substantive issues such as women’s rights.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Women, Peace, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1927. Human Rights (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus related to: International Law; Peacekeeping; Race in International Relations; The Global Human Rights Regime; Women’s Rights and Gender in International Relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Education, Human Rights, International Law, Race, Peacekeeping, Women, and Syllabus
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1928. Business Ethics (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus related to: Business Ethics, Financial Inclusion, International Finance, International Trade, Labor and Employment, Multinational Corporations. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on human rights written by diverse scholars and experts. Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives. Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity, and inclusion-related dimensions of human rights.
- Topic:
- Finance, Ethics, Business, Multinational Corporations, Trade, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1929. The Best and Worst States for Women: The US Women, Peace and Security Index 2020
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The US WPS Index offers the most comprehensive measurement of women’s rights and opportunities across 50 states and the District of Columbia. It goes beyond women’s inclusion in the economy and politics to capture key aspects of justice and legal protections, as well as women’s security against violence in their homes and in their communities.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Law, Women, Economy, Violence, Justice, Inclusion, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1930. Feminism (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on Feminism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of Feminism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Education, Women, Feminism, and Syllabus
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1931. Transnational Crime (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on transnational crime written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of transnational crime.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Women, Transnational Actors, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1932. Terrorism, Counter-terrorism and Violent Extremism
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of terrorism, counter-terrorism and violent extremism.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Women
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1933. Realism (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on Realism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of Realism.
- Topic:
- Education, Realism, International Relations Theory, and Syllabus
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1934. National Security and Defense (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on national security and defense written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of national security and defense.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Education, National Security, and Syllabus
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1935. Liberalism (Syllabus Resource)
- Author:
- Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- The following is material to consider for your syllabus. Specifically, there is: Scholarly writing on Liberalism written by diverse scholars and experts; Scholarly writing providing geographic variety and geographically varied perspectives; Studies and analyses examining diversity, equity and inclusion-related dimensions of Liberalism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Neoliberalism, and Liberalism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1936. Public perceptions towards public safety, internal and external threats
- Author:
- Shpat Balaj and Mentor Vrajolli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The first chapter of the report presents the perceptions on how safe citizens’ feel in Kosovo and their respective communities do. Moreover, the public safety chapter includes the citizens’ perception on different issues that potentially endanger the community and how much of a threat the citizens’ perceive those issues. On the other hand, the second chapter consists of citizens’ perceptions on what are the key internal and external threats to the national security of Kosovo and presents their opinion on how much of a threat do several issues present to the security of Kosovo. The key findings of this report are: Respondents feel safe in their immediate communities. However, the results show a tendency for the feeling of insecurity to slightly increase as respondents expand from their immediate communities; When asked to identify a threat posed to the community without stating pre-defined options of what the potential threats would be, the majority of respondents (43 percent) declared that there are no threats at all at their respective communities; When presented with pre-defined options of different phenomena that potentially endanger the community, 64 percent of the respondents believe that the emigration of Kosovo citizens’ is a high threat or a very high threat for the community; When asked to identify the key internal national security threats, without pre-defined options on what the potential threats would be, 24 percent of the respondents listed corruption/nepotism as the key internal threat; When presented with pre-defined options of different phenomena that potentially endanger the national security of Kosovo, 88 percent of respondents share the opinion that unemployment is a high threat or very high threat for the national security of Kosovo; In regard to external national security threats, 44 percent of the respondent believe that Serbia is the largest external security threat for Kosovo.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Opinion, Threat Perception, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1937. Unpacking Kosovo's response to returnees from the war zones in Syria and Iraq
- Author:
- Skender Perteshi and Ramadan Ilazi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This report finds that the government of Kosovo as well as civil society have, overall, positively responded to the needs of the returnees and supported their reintegration, albeit shortcomings with the extent of implementation of proclaimed commitments towards the returnees. Upon arrival in Kosovo institutions provide medical care, temporary housing, mental health sessions, while preparing them for reintegration in the society. Kosovo has two overall approaches to the returnees: punitive-restorative approaches and societal reintegration programs. Following a period of 72 hours returnees are interrogated by authorities to determine their roles in the war zones in Syria and Iraq, while confirmed foreign fighters are arrested. The first set of measures deals with those Kosovars who are found to have committed a criminal offense for participating in a foreign conflict in accordance with the national legislation. While in the correctional service, foreign fighters are offered access to programs that aim to help them with skills development to increase their employability, completion of education, as well as, training and lectures that target radical religious beliefs.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Conflict, Syrian War, Foreign Fighters, and Reintegration
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Kosovo, and Syria
1938. Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue: Examining respondents' perceptions
- Author:
- Plator Avdiu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This report provides a comprehensive and detailed data interpretation concerning perception of the public opinion based on a pre-defined set of questions on the issue at hand. In this regard, this report presents the 2019’ Kosovo Security Barometer respondents’ perception towards partition of Kosovo and territorial autonomy, including Association of Serb Municipalities which are perceived as national security threats to Kosovo by majority of respondents.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Opinion, Data, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
1939. Challenges and practices of inclusiveness in Kosovo's security sector
- Author:
- Plator Avdiu and Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an overview of the current level of inclusion of non-majority communities in KP and the KSF. It analyzes the state of inclusion in these institutions and the measures taken to ensure consistency in the process. Moreover, particular focus is given to the recruitment process, the practices on this regard and the specific measures taken to bring communities closer to these institutions. In addition, the paper offers an overview of the functioning of existing internal mechanisms that oversee and contribute to the development of inclusive policies. Among other, the paper focuses on the integrity of non-majority members, especially in the KP and the challenges posed in ensuring integrity.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Institutions, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
1940. Legitimising external missions: Deconstructing citizens' perceptions towards EULEX in Kosovo
- Author:
- Emma-Louise Rose
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- On the EU’s part, EULEX has been its largest ever civilian mission in an attempt to strengthen what is considered to be the EU’s weakest spot: foreign and security policy. Despite its lengthy presence, EULEX has not gained the trust of the citizens of Kosovo. The Kosovo Security Barometer (KSB) conducted annually by KCSS has been measuring the amount of trust that Kosovo citizens have in the mission and have found the number to be consistently low when compared to other local and international institutions. The lack of trust, and therefore support, from the public seems to stem from many different areas particularly EU/EULEX’s neutrality on the issue of Kosovo independence (due to lack of recognition by 5 member states) and a failure to carry out its mission. Based on the quantitative measurement of KSB, the lack of trust has remained fairly stable over the years, with all of the given statistics being within 15% of each other (between 16% and 31%), the lowest amount of trust was recorded in 2015. This brought the legitimacy and public support for the mission into question.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Institutions, and EULEX
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1941. Kosova Resilience Index - Violent extemism in Kosova: What community resilience can teach us?
- Author:
- Skender Perteshi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- To measure the community resilience towards extremism and radicalization, three indicators have been treated, namely: identity and social cohesion, connection with the country, and trust in state institutions and religious harmony between communities in the country. By evaluating these indicators, we have identified the strong points of community resilience in Kosova, which should be worked on in order to create communities which are resilient against violence and radicalization.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Social Cohesion, Resilience, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1942. Challenges of Public Safety in Kosovo - Special Edition of Kosovo Security Barometer
- Author:
- Donika Marku
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Various elements affect citizens’ perceptions regarding public safety. Indisputably, such attitudes are shaped by personal experiences. However, the importance of media and social networks in shaping citizens’ opinions cannot be ignored. Perceptions might be correlated with personal characteristics such as age, gender, ethnicity, education and economic status. Therefore, beyond general data analyses, this edition also includes cross-analyses of various public security threats with personal characteristics.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Opinion, and Public Safety
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1943. Kosovo Security Barometer - Tenth Edition
- Author:
- Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The tenth edition of the Kosovo Security Barometer, respectively the first edition of the Western Balkans Security Barometer, consists of three main chapters: 1. Citizens’ trust towards Security, Justice and Central Institutions; 2. Citizens’ perceptions on the corruption of the key institutions; 3. Frequency of citizens’ contact with key security and justice institutions. While this report provides a general overview of citizens' perceptions on the above-mentioned chapters, it also presents the data based on Gender, Region, Area (Urban/Rural), Age (18-35/36+) and Ethnicity of the respondents. In addition, the report offers additional analysis on why such citizens’ perception towards the issues provided in the report are present. This was enabled by conducting two focus groups with field researchers - who provided first-hand information from the field in addition to the fixed responses of the citizens’ and two focus groups with representatives of institutions and other stakeholders that are subject of KSB analysis - who provided their perspective on why such perceptions are present and offered potential solutions on how to further the citizens' perception towards them.
- Topic:
- Security, Public Opinion, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1944. State of play of integrity policies in the Kosovo Police
- Author:
- Plator Avdiu and Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Kosovo’s security sector integrity practices, in particular Kosovo Police ones, have run into severe challenges, which have been exacerbated by the current Covid-19 pandemic the country is dealing with. Numerous police officers are subjected to criminal investigations by relevant rule-of-law mechanisms (Police Inspectorate of Kosovo and State Prosecution) for alleged criminal offenses related to breaches of legal procedures governing their official duties. On the other hand, the Prime Minister’s decision of October 2020 to discharge the former General Director of the Kosovo Police, has both directly and indirectly paved the way for political influence over the Kosovo Police by ruling parties. Furthermore, this may have a significant impact on discouraging structural reforms in the police, particularly in human resource management.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Law Enforcement, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
1945. China Maritime Report No. 6: Djibouti: China's First Overseas Strategic Strongpoint
- Author:
- Peter A. Dutton, Isaac B. Kardon, and Conor M. Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This China Maritime Report on Djibouti is the first in a series of case studies on China’s “overseas strategic strongpoints” (海外战略支点). The strategic strongpoint concept has no formal definition, but is used by People’s Republic of China (PRC) officials and analysts to describe foreign ports with special strategic and economic value that host terminals and commercial zones operated by Chinese firms.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Navy, Oceans and Seas, Seapower, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Port, and People's Republic of China (PRC)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, Djibouti, and East Africa
1946. China Maritime Report No. 5: China's Dreadnought? The PLA Navy's Type 055 Cruiser and Its Implications for the Future Maritime Security Environment
- Author:
- Daniel Caldwell, Joseph Freda, and Lyle J. Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- China’s naval modernization, a process that has been underway in earnest for three decades, is now hitting its stride. The advent of the Type 055 cruiser firmly places the PLAN among the world’s very top naval services. This study, which draws upon a unique set of Chinese-language writings, offers the first comprehensive look at this new, large surface combatant. It reveals a ship that has a stealthy design, along with a potent and seemingly well-integrated sensor suite. With 112 VLS cells, moreover, China’s new cruiser represents a large magazine capacity increase over legacy surface combatants. Its lethality might also be augmented as new, cutting edge weaponry could later be added to the accommodating design. This vessel, therefore, provides very substantial naval capability to escort Chinese carrier groups, protect Beijing’s long sea lanes, and take Chinese naval diplomacy to an entirely new and daunting level. Even more significant perhaps, the Type 055 will markedly expand the range and firepower of the PLAN and this could substantially impact myriad potential conflict scenarios, from the Indian Ocean to the Korean Peninsula and many in between. This study of Type 055 development, moreover, does yield evidence that Chinese naval strategists are acutely aware of major dilemmas confronting the U.S. Navy surface fleet.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Navy, Oceans and Seas, Seapower, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Republic of China (PRC)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1947. Lockdown Preventive Measure against COVID-19 Pandemic: Livelihoods Implications in Cameroon
- Author:
- Dr. Tata E. Sunjo, Adeline Kaptue Wuyt, and Dr. Yauba Saidu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The entire world today is, in one way or another, affected by the spread of the novel coronavirus infection which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared to be a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020. This outbreak which has spread to all continents (Figure 1) has been characterized by exponential increase in infected cases, attributed deaths and socio-economic hardship. There are already more than 3.8 million confirmed cases globally with over 265 862 deaths (WHO Situation Report, 9 May 2020). The quality of the health system in a given country appears to not be an influential factor in preventing the installation or propagation of the pandemic as the nations with relatively robust health systems like in Europe and the USA have also been hit hard.
- Topic:
- Health, World Health Organization, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1948. Socio-Economic Implications of Covid-19 in Cameroon
- Author:
- Dr. Fuein Vera Kum and Henri Kouam
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The economic impact of COVID-19 will be broad-based, causing wages to fall due to social distancing and quarantine measures on the service sector. While communications and ICT-related sectors will be less affected, transport, entertainment and leisure sectors will be adversely affected, together with exports and domestic demand. Policymakers should utilise the $164 billion availed by international institutions to support SMEs and wages in the informal sector, whilst the 90 billion should be used in other to invest in the physical and digital infrastructure to support educational outcomes and employment over the medium term. Such actionable policies should accompany broader quarantine and social distancing measures.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Macroeconomics, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1949. Cultural Communication Patterns and Alternatives Approaches to Fight COVID-19
- Author:
- Dr. Asahngwa Constantine and Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Cameroon on the 6th of March, 2020, 23 measures have been taken by the Cameroon Government which spoke through Prime Minister and Head of Government in a bid to contain the spread of this unwanted visitor or is it a permanent resident! Agreeably, the government’s response strategy has been in line with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines for its member states (WHO, 2020). The response strategy aims to interrupt transmission of the virus as well as effective management of confirmed cases. The most common preventive measures include: social distancing, suspension of mass gathering of more than 50 persons, frequent hand washing with soap, disinfecting surfaces with alcohol and sanitizers, self-isolation, quarantining of conformed cases and the obligatory putting on of a face mask in all public places. However, there have been some concerns relating to the effectiveness of this response strategy. The number of confirmed cases has been on the rise since 6th March 2020 when Cameroon registered its first case. It has been observed that most of the problems associated with curbing person to person transmission have to do with behaviors, related issues, especially cultural stereotypes (WHO, 2020). The problem is that Cameroonians have cultural behaviors that may not be compatible with the current national response strategy. Consequently, the objective of this paper is to investigate and identify the gaps that exist between these control measures churned out by the government and the Cameroonian cultural environment; with the view to suggest alternatives to intercultural communication approaches, which can be encouraged to fight the spread of COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Health, Public Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, Community, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1950. The impact of COVID 19 on health and food security in Cameroon
- Author:
- Egoh Aziz and Dr. Fuein Vera Kum
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of COVID 19 in the Wuhan province of China has caused tremendous damages to human lives throughout the world while affecting the global economy due to the untold temporary lockdowns of businesses, companies, and the restriction of international travels across the globe. With high and mostly under-reported COVID-19-related fatalities in many countries as well as the added strain on healthcare services, the burden of this pandemic is easily palpable. The impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak in Cameroon continues to unfold and carries with it considerable human security risks. The United Nation’s Development Program considers seven main dimensions of human security through sustainable human development. These are economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, and political security. The departure point of this article brings into focus the effects of the current coronavirus pandemic on health and food security. Based on available data from reliable sources (such as the Ministry of Public Health, the Nkafu Policy Institute’s Coronavirus Task Force, FAO, IMF, World Bank, WHO, etc.), we analyze the impact of COVID 19 on the afore-mentioned aspects of human security and propose recommendations that can help mitigate the overarching consequences of the virus on health and food security in Cameroon.
- Topic:
- Health, Food, Health Care Policy, Food Security, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1951. Cameroon’s Informal Sector Put To The Test By Coronavirus (Covid-19)
- Author:
- Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu and Ulrich D’POLA KAMDEM
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- On 6 March 2020, the first positive case of Coronavirus (COVID-19) was recorded in Cameroon. Towards the end of April 2020, the country has more than 1000 positive cases with eight (8) out of the country’s ten (10) regions affected. To block the spread of the Coronavirus in Cameroon, government’s authorities took a series of thirteen (13) measures on 17 March 2020. At the level of business enterprises, the objective of the actions taken to counter the virus was two-fold: to implement the government’s recommendations and, especially, to ensure continuity of work. For example, the use of telework has been adopted in some companies. However, while the government’s measures and those relating to telework have been widely followed in both the public and the formal private sectors, they have, nevertheless, been a real headache for the informal sector. Indeed, the informal sector in Cameroon is characterised by precarious activities, with little or no supervision, which are not covered by the National Accounting. This sector employs 90% of the active population and accounts for more than 50% of the country’s GDP according to the International Labour Organization – ILO (2017). Consequently, because of its weight in the Cameroonian economy, this article analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the informal sector.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, Public Sector, Private Sector, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1952. The Impact Of Covid-19 On Sino-African Trade Activities
- Author:
- Egoh Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has caused waves of horror and anxiety across many nations in the world. Considering the intense unravelling of the pandemic, no exact figure as per the number of confirmed and death cases worldwide is definite because the situation changes almost every hour. However, on April 14, 2020 3:40 GMT, Worldometer reported 210 countries and territories across the globe having a total of 1,925,179 confirmed cases, and a dead toll of 119,699 deaths. The impact of the pandemic is disastrous globally affecting a variety of sectors including the service and supply chain, as well as trade, manufacturing, and tourism. This article aims to provide a synoptic assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on Sino-African trade activities. It stresses that, if African policymakers revamp their efforts to quickly address COVID-19, the human casualty will be less and African economic growth may experience lesser shock as previewed by the IMF. On the other hand, if they relent their efforts, the human casualty will soar while the growth rate may decline. The effect of COVID-19’s outbreak in China has caused a slowdown on exports and services directed towards China.According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2018, China’s total import and export volume with Africa was US$204.19 billion, a yearly increase of 19.7%, surpassing the total growth rate of foreign trade in the same period by 7.1 percentage points. Among these, China’s exports to Africa were US$104.91 billion, up 10.8% and China’s imports from Africa were US$99.28 billion, up 30.8%; the surplus was US$5.63 billion, down 70.0% every year. The growth rate of Sino African trade was the highest in the world in 2018. This shows that Sino-African trade has a significant contribution to the growth of African economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Trade, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, and Cameroon
1953. Cloth Face Masks Should be Used in the Community, Not by Health Care Workers in Health Facilities
- Author:
- Ronald Gobina
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Wearing face masks are an essential aspect of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Although medical face masks are reportedly in very short supply in many countries especially low-income countries, cloth face masks seem to be gaining ground in terms of popularity and usage. In Cameroon, where the government has mandated wearing face masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19, with hefty fines for violators, cloth face masks are becoming more and more ubiquitous. They are a natural choice for community face mask users due to the ease of access (relatively low cost of production, accessibility of materials), potential reusability, and esthetic variability. The usefulness of cloth face masks to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, however, has been subject to a lot of debate. The scientific community is torn between outright restriction of use because of a lack of evidence supporting protective ability and the ethical dilemma of appearing to prefer a ‘no face masks’ policy (where medical masks are unavailable).
- Topic:
- Health, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
1954. Alliance power for cybersecurity
- Author:
- Kenneth Geers
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- There is only one internet and only one cyberspace connecting individuals, enterprises, and nations all over the world. Ever more frequently, this shared space is coming under attack from malicious actors, both state and non-state, who are seeking to exploit cyberspace’s shared infrastructure for their own ends. Addressing cybersecurity threats is therefore an international problem that requires an international solution. But given the myriad of threats faced in the cyber domain and the ambiguous borders that exist there, how can states best address these challenges and ensure the safety of their own networks and people? In this new report from the Scowcroft Center’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, Cyber Statecraft Initiative senior fellow Kenneth Geers argues that the best way for democratic states to defend their own cyber networks is to leverage the multinational strength of political and military alliances like NATO and the European Union. Alliances like NATO give democracies an advantage over their authoritarian rivals by providing already established mechanisms for multinational cooperation. Alliances are therefore better equipped to tackle the inherently international challenges of cybersecurity. To illustrate the impact of alliances on cybersecurity, Geers uses events in Ukraine as a case study, comparing the Ukrainian government’s efforts to defend against Russian cyberattacks shortly after the 2014 revolution with measures taken in cooperation with partners to defend the 2019 presidential election. Geers illustrates how collective action in 2019 produced improved security outcomes compared to efforts taken by Ukraine alone. Building on these lessons, Geers argues that the only structures likely to produce tangible results in cybersecurity are those within political and military alliances. Indeed, the only credible cyber superpower is a robust alliance. The report then offers a series of recommendations on how NATO and the EU can promote trust and collaboration among Allies and partners to build a more effective cyber alliance.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Northern Europe
1955. Turkey’s Refugee Resilience: Expanding and Improving Solutions for the Economic Inclusion of Syrians in Turkey
- Author:
- Bastien Revel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since 2014, Turkey has not only hosted the world’s largest refugee population but has also modeled a best practice for the global refugee policy discussion. Turkey’s experience on the key issues such as jobs and employment should be examined as lessons for both refugee hosting countries and donor countries alike. The country has provided Syrians under Temporary Protection the right to access work permits and formal employment. Facilitating self-reliance for such a large number of refugees’ households remains a challenging task, even in the medium to long-term. This is especially the case in a context where increasing levels of unemployment in Turkey compounded by the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have posed a serious challenge to job creation and increased competition for available opportunities. Many Syrians living in Turkey experiencing partial or complete loss of income while incurring higher expenses, which is compounded for most households by a lack of savings. Addressing these challenges requires to draw lessons learnt at both policy and operational level to effectively support access to livelihoods opportunities. This notably involves fostering greater engagement and partnership with the private sector, on the one hand, and exploring innovative solutions such as e-work and online livelihoods opportunities on the other. The COVID-19 pandemic is proving to be an important test on the government’s and their international partners’ relevance and flexibility and their ability to quickly step up efforts in that direction. In this context, UNDP Turkey—a longstanding development partner and the co-lead of the Refugee and Resilience Response Plan (3RP)—joined hands with the Atlantic Council’s program on Turkey—”Atlantic Council IN TURKEY”—to explore policy options to foster socioeconomic inclusion among Syrians under Temporary Protection. Building on the experience and expertise of both organizations, our joint policy report : “Turkey’s Refugee Resilience: Expanding and Improving Solutions for the Economic Inclusion of Syrians in Turkey” aims at outlining pragmatic and innovative options to facilitate refugees’ access to decent employment so as to contribute to our common objective to #leavenoonebehind.
- Topic:
- Migration, Science and Technology, United Nations, Women, Refugees, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Syrian War, Crisis Management, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
1956. Strategies for reforming Afghanistan’s illicit networks
- Author:
- Harris Samad and Fatima Salman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report explores illicit networks in Afghanistan in the context of peacebuilding, democratic consolidation, and enhancing state capacity. Existing literature on the topic is sparse. While the 1990s saw study of the subject matter as tangential to international arms and drug trafficking policies, this period laid the foundation for renewed interest on the issue partially catalyzed by the 2001 US-led invasion. The 2008 global financial crisis shifted this lens toward one of countering the financing of terrorism strategies, corruption, and money laundering. The current day reflects a broadening of how illicit networks are analyzed beyond sector-specific policies; that is, the subject matter today encompasses more of the sectors that make it profitable, rather than focusing only on the most relevant component at a given time. Indeed, it is an internationalized issue, encompassing the smuggling of different goods and involving individuals of varying motivations and capacities within and without Afghanistan. Illicit networks can be broadly understood at three main levels: hyper-local, national, and international. At a hyper-local level, illicit networks represent a series of interpersonal relationships that facilitate the exchange of goods and compensation (taking many forms) beyond the reach of central law enforcement or political authority. Nationally, illicit networks comprise regional and countrywide patronage, criminal, and insurgent networks that organize and profiteer from the hyper-local relationships on a macro level. Internationally, actors with reach outside of the country move illicitly gained goods such as poppy, talc, methamphetamine, minerals, and others, as well as people via human trafficking, into trading hubs in Iran, Pakistan, and the Gulf for export into international markets. They then use poorly regulated financial institutions throughout the world (notably, Western and Gulf banking systems) to store funds, some of which make their way back to Afghanistan (though this phenomenon is particularly difficult to track). This report outlines several specific policy recommendations that will be necessary to combat the illicit networks in a manner that supports the durability of the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and the continued consolidation of its fragile democratic institutions. These recommendations include the following: For Afghanistan: Provide a path for illicit actors into the formal economy; Generate political will and support; Establish high-level Afghan support for countering illicit trafficking; and upholding the rule of law; Implement enhanced border management; Expand the negotiating table to include more localized narratives; Strengthen and internationalize counter-threat finance strategies For the United States: Support a comprehensive economic settlement; Ensure future interoperability between Afghan and US security forces For regional stakeholders: Provide access to global markets to enhance regional trade integration; Cut off regional and international components of networks to reduce viability and profitability via neighborhood watchdogs, in conjunction with the United States
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Trafficking, Financial Institutions, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
1957. A strategic concept for countering Russian and Chinese hybrid threats
- Author:
- Lauren Speranza
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Tackling hybrid threats, particularly from state actors such as Russia and China, remains one of the greatest challenges for the transatlantic community. Hybrid threats have gained more traction among policymakers and publics across Europe and the United States, especially in a world with COVID-19. Over the last five years, Euro-Atlantic nations and institutions, such as NATO and the European Union (EU), have taken important steps to respond to hybrid issues. But, as hybrid threats become more prominent in the future, policymakers must move toward a more coherent, effective, and proactive strategy for countering Russian and Chinese hybrid threats. To develop such a transatlantic counter-hybrid strategy for Russia and China, this paper argues that two major things need to happen. First, transatlantic policymakers have to build a common strategic concept to guide collective thinking on hybrid threats. Second, transatlantic policymakers need to take a range of practical actions in service of that strategic concept. In a strategic concept for countering Russian and Chinese hybrid threats, Lauren Speranza offers five strategic priorities that could form the basis of this strategic concept and presents a series of constructive steps that NATO, the EU, and nations can take, in cooperation with the private sector and civil society, to enhance their counter-hybrid capabilities against Russia and China.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Resilience, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
1958. Geometries of deterrence: Assessing defense arrangements in Europe’s northeast
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk and Conor Rodihan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The conventional military threat from Russia towards Europe most acutely affects a number of frontline Nordic and Baltic states from the Barents Sea in the Arctic through the Baltic Sea region: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, these countries, in concert with other Euro-Atlantic allies and partners, have concentrated on strengthening their own defenses and on developing and enhancing eight sets of different defense cooperation arrangements. As the only two non-NATO and militarily nonaligned nations in the region, Finland and Sweden’s role in regional security and their level of cooperation with these and other partners poses challenges as well as opportunities for deterrence and defense in Europe’s northeast. These two countries have particularly emphasized cooperation with partners as they seek to build an interlocking web of security relationships to improve defense in the region. The core arrangements within this network include: The Finnish-Swedish bilateral defense relationship; Nordic Defense Cooperation; Nordic-Baltic Eight; The Northern Group; NATO Partnerships; The European Union; Ad hoc arrangements such as the Joint Expeditionary Force; Framework Nations Concept, and European Intervention Initiative; Finnish-Swedish-US trilateral and bilateral defense cooperation. These “geometries of deterrence” vary in scope, scale, and membership, but taken together, they enhance a range of important components of deterrence. In Geometries of Deterrence, Hans Binnendijk and Conor Rodihan assess the contributions of each of these arrangements against an ideal or “gold standard” for conventional military deterrence, before evaluating the arrangements collectively and offering recommendations to further strengthen deterrence for Finland, Sweden, and indeed for all of Northeastern Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Northern Europe
1959. The reverse cascade: Enforcing security on the global IoT supply chain
- Author:
- Nathaniel Kim, Trey Herr, and Bruce Schneier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. 1 These devices vary from Internet-connected power-generation equipment to wearable health trackers and smart home appliances, and generally offer some combination of new functionality, greater convenience, or cost savings to users. The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the increasing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. Hundreds of “things” are being connected to the Internet and each other, with more than fifty billion devices expected to be connected by 2030. 1 These devices vary from Internet-connected power-generation equipment to wearable health trackers and smart home appliances, and generally offer some combination of new functionality, greater convenience, or cost savings to users.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1960. An affordable defense of Asia
- Author:
- T. X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For the last two decades, China has studied the US military, identified its key weaknesses, and developed the tactics and forces best suited to exploit those vulnerabilities. These challenges are compounded by significant deficiencies in today’s US joint force across all domains of conflict—sea, air, land, space, electronic warfare, and cyber. Proposed budgets cannot overcome those deficiencies using legacy systems. Therefore, the current US military strategy for the defense of Asia—a conventional defense of the first island chain from Japan to the Philippines, built on current air and sea platforms supported by major air and sea bases—needs to be adapted. The United States and its allies have two major advantages they can exploit—geography and emerging technologies. In Forward Defense’s inaugural report, An Affordable Defense of Asia, T.X. Hammes crafts a strategy for leveraging these advantages. Hammes makes the case that by developing novel operational concepts that take advantage of emerging technologies, while integrating these concepts into a broader Offshore Control Strategy which seeks to hold geostrategic chokepoints, the United States can improve its warfighting posture and bolster conventional deterrence. This paper advances the following arguments and recommendations. 1. The geography of the Pacific provides significant strategic, operational, and tactical advantages to a defender. 2. New operational concepts that employ emerging, relatively inexpensive technologies—including multimodal missiles, long-range air drones, smart sea mines, and unmanned naval vessels—can support an affordable defense of Asia. 3. These new technologies can and should be manufactured and fielded by US allies in the region in order to strengthen alliance relationships and improve their ability to defend themselves. 4. Autonomous weapons will be essential to an affordable defense of Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China, East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1961. Assessing Indian digital trade policies: Will they support a $5 trillion economy?
- Author:
- Mark Linscott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has forced nearly all public policy questions to be seen through the lens of how to detect and respond to the disease as it spreads rapidly across the globe. These include obvious questions of national health care policy and whether there is a place for international efforts to coordinate their national responses. Trade policy has come to the fore as a growing number of countries restrict exports of critical medical supplies to ensure sufficient availability for patients in-country. In this crisis, international collaboration to keep trade flowing has been limited and has not prevented many countries from imposing new trade restrictions. The importance of digital policies has grown as countries seek to harness the tools of big data, artificial intelligence (AI), and vital infrastructure to trace outbreaks of the virus and assist efforts to find cures and vaccines. While digital tools are proving vital in efforts to track outbreaks and trace contacts, legitimate concerns are growing about potentially invasive government surveillance even after the virus retreats. These policy areas—health, trade, and digital—overlap in the international, national, and local efforts to reduce the duration of the pandemic and mitigate its effects with respect to human lives and economic well-being. The analysis in this paper, while initially conducted before anyone had ever heard of COVID-19, has been impacted by its sudden emergence and will likely require updating to assess the experiences of this ongoing crisis. The paper, which focuses on the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, concludes with a series of questions, as opposed to policy recommendations. This is due partly to the very complexity that all governments confront in mapping out digital policies given the ubiquitous role digital networks and devices play in our daily lives. But these questions may have even more tangible relevance now that COVID-19 is forcing a reckoning with a severe interruption in global economic growth, which could be on the scale of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Ultimately, the governments of India, the United States, and other nations will determine for themselves what answers are relevant to their individual circumstances.
- Topic:
- Economy, Business, Trade, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Canada, India, North America, and United States of America
1962. Downstream oil theft: Countermeasures and good practices
- Author:
- David Soud, Ian M. Ralby, and Rohini Ralby
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Downstream oil theft has become a global problem. Since most of the world’s energy systems still rely on oil, fuel smugglers are nearly always able to find markets for their goods. Moreover, since oil is not inherently illegal, it is generally an easy product to move, buy, and sell. Profits from oil theft are frequently used to fund terrorism and other illegal activities. The new Atlantic Council Global Energy Report by Dr. David Soud, Downstream Oil Theft: Countermeasures and Good Practices, provides an in-depth look at how governments—from militaries to law enforcement officials—along with other stakeholders can anticipate and intercept instances of downstream oil theft. The report offers a range of methods to counter oil theft, which range from fuel marking and other technologies to transnational
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1963. Counting the cost: Avoiding another war between Israel and Hezbollah
- Author:
- Nicholas Blanford and Assaf Orion
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Almost fourteen years since the 2006 war, Hezbollah and Israel seem to be drifting closer to war than at any time in the last decade. Even as Lebanon and Israel grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, neither the Israeli military nor Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah are allowing the disease to distract from their long-running enmity. With the military buildup on both sides, the mutual destruction would be far reaching. Given the risks at hand, the Atlantic Council has released a new report, “Counting the Cost: Avoiding Another War between Israel and Hezbollah,” authored by Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, and Brig. Gen. (Res.) Assaf Orion, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. The authors examine the current force posture of the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah, identify potential triggers that could lead to a war, analyze how the next war would be fought by both sides, and offer recommendations to at least maintain the current relative calm and avoid a conflict that could cost thousands of lives and bring unprecedented ruin to both Lebanon and Israel.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, Crisis Management, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
1964. European energy security and the critical role of transatlantic energy cooperation
- Author:
- Richard L. Morningstar, András Simonyi, Olga Khakova, and Jennifer T. Gordon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Transatlantic cooperation is essential to European energy security, which is and should remain a key national security priority for the United States. European energy security is crucial for the maintenance of a strong European economy and for European political stability, both of which are in the best interests of the United States. The new report from the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, European Energy Security and the Critical Role of Transatlantic Energy Cooperation: Final Report and Recommendations, by Richard L. Morningstar, András Simonyi, Olga Khakova, and Jennifer T. Gordon, provides insights into how the United States and European Union (EU) can work together to strengthen European energy security. The Global Energy Center’s new report recommends that the United States and the EU focus their energy cooperation in several areas that will benefit the EU’s efforts to meet climate targets and that, at the same time, will also bolster energy security. These areas include: the development of competitive and transparent energy markets; the identification of alternative energy sources and routes; collaboration on new energy technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and coordination of a transatlantic financing strategy. Additionally, new energy infrastructure, interconnected grids, the European Green Deal, and broader geopolitical challenges also represent areas of opportunity for cooperation between the United States and the EU.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
1965. US-Brazil trade and FDI: Enhancing the bilateral economic relationship
- Author:
- Abrão Neto, Ken Hyatt, Daniel Godinho, Lisa Schineller, and Roberta Braga
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 marks the turning of a page for the Western Hemisphere, a region that in 2019 saw uncertainty dominate headlines as new governments came in and out of office, trade tensions grew, and citizens took to the streets to voice their concerns with the status quo. For years, the opportunities that could come with a stronger bilateral relationship between the United States and Brazil have been underestimated. Significant potential exists to produce sizeable benefits for both societies. That potential must be maximized. While US and Brazilian governments and businesses have begun to seize the benefits of the synergies the two countries share, hurdles remain that prevent a full and successful commercial reality. The United States and Brazil would benefit from a closer and stronger trade and foreign-direct-investment-relationship that would amplify growth and prosperity, in both the short and long terms. Deepening the economic relationship would pay dividends in other areas as well, translating into greater opportunities for strategic bilateral cooperation. This paper recognizes that the moment is now and that 2020 is a pivotal year to substantively advance bilateral economic ties. Building upon the successes and progress made over the years, this paper incorporates the input and expertise of the US and Brazilian private sectors and policymakers to offer a renewed vision and new momentum for strengthening US-Brazil trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), supporting concrete steps toward deepening the commercial relationship, and laying the foundation for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Brazil. As the global balance of power shifts, as the world faces new hurdles that could slow growth, and as Latin America must contend with more uncertainty amid new external shocks, the two countries strategically and economically have countless reasons to deepen commercial relations. Stronger ties will ultimately provide additional certainty at this critical time.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
1966. Emerging technologies and the future of US-Japan defense collaboration
- Author:
- Tate Nurkin and Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Geopolitical and security dynamics are shifting in the Indo-Pacific as states across the region adjust to China’s growing influence and the era of great-power competition between the United States and China. These geopolitical shifts are also intersecting with the accelerating rate of innovation in technologies associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) to reshape the future of military-technological competition and emerging military operations. This report, Emerging Technologies and the Future of US-Japan Defense Collaboration, by Tate Nurkin and Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, explores the drivers, tensions, and constraints shaping US-Japan collaboration on emerging defense technologies while providing concrete recommendations for the US-Japan alliance to accelerate and intensify long-standing military and defense-focused coordination and collaboration.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan, East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1967. The future of US-Iraq relations
- Author:
- C. Anthony Pfaff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With US-Iraq ties strained and a Strategic Dialogue between the two countries set to begin in June 2020, this Atlantic Council Iraq Initiative report by Nonresident Senior Fellow and former White House National Security Council Iraq Director Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff analyzes the current challenges in the relationship and presents policy recommendations. Dr. Pfaff argues in the report that the United States should: Avoid dragging Iraq into its broader campaign against Iran; Play to its comparative advantage: The United States can be a better security partner for Iraq than other countries and can also assist with integrating it into the international community and developing the economic and financial capabilities necessary to participate in the global economy; Continue to insist on the integration of Iran-backed militias into Iraq’s security forces; Highlight US aid to Iraq and while acknowledging US mistakes, push back against politicized narratives that explain Iraq’s lack of recovery; Emphasize military interoperability, so that in the event of an ISIS resurgence – or the emergence of a like-minded group – US forces can quickly fill in the Iraqi armed forces’ capability gaps; Promote reconciliation and provide an alternative to Iranian mediation while at the same time avoiding advocacy for a particular outcome; Provide economic assistance to set conditions for foreign investment by US companies and like-minded partners; Focus additional COVID-19 related assistance on economic recovery;.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
1968. Sustainable aviation fuel policy in the United States: A pragmatic way forward
- Author:
- Fred Ghatala
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The aviation sector has been working to decarbonize, but it faces unique challenges since decarbonization options that may work for ground or maritime transport are generally not feasible for air travel. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) present an opportunity to decarbonize the aviation sector, but federal policies that address SAF have largely included SAF as an add-on to existing policies that are meant primarily to address ground transportation. However, due to the unique challenges presented to decarbonization by the aviation sector, the use of SAF should be incentivized through pragmatic, sector-specific federal policies. The new Atlantic Council report by Fred Ghatala, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Policy in the United States: A Pragmatic Way Forward, provides a set of near and long-term federal policy options that could be implemented in order to encourage the use of SAF. The report contextualizes each policy choice and explains the implications of each option, differentiating between policies that can be implemented in the near-term and policies that require long-term implementation.
- Topic:
- Environment, Governance, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1969. A framework for an open, trusted, and resilient 5G global telecommunications network
- Author:
- John T. Watts
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Recent events have seen an acceleration in the rise of reemerging great powers. This has had a profound impact on global economic, technological, and political assumptions and has created new technological realities. The potential impact and implications of artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology innovation, and the dark sides of social media have raised new concerns for social norms. No issue is more emblematic of the competition between liberal, free-market nations and authoritarian command-economy principles than the evolution of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications. Generational shifts between cellular telecommunications networks have profound implications for national and global economies. As data become increasingly central to every aspect of a modern economy, the shift to the next generation of cellular networks will be of even greater significance. The Chinese government identified the importance of this transition and has, for years, been aggressively investing around the world to be the purveyor of 5G infrastructure that will carry that data in the coming decades. Chinese-backed firms are currently better positioned to exploit the vast opportunity that 5G represents more effectively than corporations within free markets, for several reasons. The most significant is the high infrastructure cost of legacy cellular models and uncertain consumer demand in the short term. Capital costs are driven predominately by the technical requirements of 5G, which—in return for far higher speeds and ultra-low latency—require new hardware to be installed in many more locations than previous networks. Moreover, the legacy infrastructure model relied on proprietary and incompatible hardware components that are best suited to large, single-manufacture companies that can provide comprehensive end-to-end solutions. While consumer demand is predicted to be high, businesses are cautious in deploying such large amounts of money for unproven speculative demand. The lack of a concrete user base creates an opening that vertically integrated Chinese companies, heavily backed by the state, are exploiting by deploying the 5G technology and services at a discount of about 25 percent, along with loss-leading financing terms. Given that end-to-end network solutions can cost $10–100 billion, or more, 25-percent discounts have a major impact. While the 25-percent discount is financially enticing, the longer-term consequences are often hidden, and can include vulnerability to foreign espionage, economic leverage, and forced compliance to conditions underpinned by authoritarian principles. For the Chinese government, the financial cost is a small investment in return for potential control of the world’s data backbone for the next several decades. The reality is that questions revolving around security, as defined from the perspective of traditional “cyber” or “network security,” are ancillary to the critical challenge. If a nation builds a telecommunications network with equipment supplied from Chinese tech giants such as Huawei or ZTE, those networks will inherently be subject to Chinese laws that require compliance with many principles’ anathema to free-market, liberal views. Moreover, these networks, by design, must be managed and maintained by large services organizations, likely staffed by a vast workforce of Chinese citizens, who also must comply with Chinese law and can provide local human intelligence back to the Chinese state. These are terms that countries should not have to accept, and to which their citizens should not be involuntarily subjected. An open, innovative, safe, and reliable alternative is needed, so that people have a realistic option that allows them to freely communicate and consume information. 5G is emblematic of the competition between the new authoritarianism and free-market, liberal principles. China has executed its plan well over the last five years by driving the standards discussion, developing the leading vertically integrated solution, deploying national export finance to subsidize their offerings, and building the largest and most effective services organization in the market. Free-market economies have spent far less on research and development (R&D), have only limited export finance options, rely on semiconductor dominance, deploy severely limited services organizations, and have no integrated national or international strategy. Few governments or companies were prepared for the level of sophistication of the product and export finance offering of the authoritarian-backed commercial players.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, and 5G
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1970. A new energy strategy for the Western Hemisphere
- Author:
- David L. Goldwyn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In 2019, the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center began an effort in partnership with the United States Department of Energy to consider a fresh approach to energy in the Americas that is comprehensive in nature and targeted in its approach. Following a year-long period of engagements alongside six representative stakeholder countries participating, the resulting report: “A New US Energy Strategy for the Western Hemisphere,” was launched in March 2020 and will serve as the launch point for additional work by the Atlantic Council on energy and sustainability issues across the hemisphere.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Governance, Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and North America
1971. Withdrawal deadlines in war: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Paul D. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- At the outset of some of the most impactful wars in history, policymakers have assumed that the duration of conflict would be brief. Unfortunately, their assumptions were often wrong, as may wars like those in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan only grew more complicated with the passage of time. However, at least in these three cases, the reality of prolonged stalemate did not stop policymakers from setting withdrawal deadlines to assuage public anxieties and improve military performance. The pressures contributing to these consistent decisions across time are still relevant now. Therefore, as the United States currently seeks to deter great-power rivals and rogue regimes while combating terrorism, it is as important as ever to understand the roles and potential outcomes of withdrawal deadlines in war. In this new Atlantic Council report, Withdrawal Deadlines In War: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Dr. Paul D. Miller examines the effect of withdrawal timetables on public opinion, military success, and policymakers’ goals across the three titular case studies. He finds that “Withdrawal timelines do not achieve the political benefits that policymakers desire, but they do incur the risks policymakers rightly fear.” In the face of prolonged and difficult military challenges, withdrawal deadlines can exacerbate outcomes at crucial moments, and thus policymakers must tread carefully.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, History, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and United States of America
1972. Iranian digital influence efforts: Guerrilla broadcasting for the twenty-first century
- Author:
- Emerson T. Brooking and Suzanne Kianpour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iran has invested significant resources and accumulated vast experience in the conduct of digital influence efforts. These clandestine propaganda efforts have been used to complement Iranian foreign policy operations for the better part of a decade. Nonetheless, Iranian influence capabilities have gone largely unstudied by the United States, and only came to widespread attention in August 2018 with the first public identification of an Iranian propaganda network. Following the US assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani and a sharp escalation in US-Iranian tensions, it is important to understand the perspective, methods, and intent of Iranian influence efforts. For Iran, information dominance represents a central focus of both foreign and domestic policy. Iran sees itself as engaged in a perennial information war: against Sunni Arab powers, against the forces of perceived Western neocolonialism, and particularly against the United States. Should the information conflict be lost, many Iranian officials believe the collapse of the state will soon follow. Accordingly, Iran has prioritized the development of digital broadcast capabilities that cannot be easily targeted by the United States or its allies. Iran has also prioritized information control. Although Iran boasts roughly fifty-six million Internet users, these users must navigate a culture of censorship and frequent state intimidation. Following the 2009 Green Movement, the Iranian government came to see social media activism as enabling an existential threat. Authorities created special cyber-police units, built a new legal framework for Internet regulation, and outlawed most Western digital platforms. They also began to develop systems to remove Iranian users from the global Internet entirely. In pursuit of foreign and domestic information dominance, Iran began operating Facebook and Twitter sockpuppets as early as 2010. As the United States and Iran entered into a period of rapprochement and negotiation, the number of accounts grew exponentially. These accounts have been used to launder Iranian state propaganda to unsuspecting audiences, often under the guise of local media reports. To date, Facebook has identified approximately 2,200 assets directly affecting six million users. Twitter has identified eight thousand accounts responsible for roughly 8.5 million messages. Much of this Iranian content cannot be characterized as “disinformation.” In sharp contrast to the information operations of Russia, which routinely disseminate false stories with the aim of polluting the information environment, Iran makes less use of obvious falsehood. Instead, Iran advances a distorted truth: one that exaggerates Iran’s moral authority while minimizing Iran’s repression of its citizens and the steep human cost of its own imperial adventures in the wider Middle East. As a whole, Iran’s digital influence operations represent a continuation of public diplomacy, albeit conducted through misleading websites and social media sockpuppets. Iran broadcasts a fairly consistent message to many different audiences: in Africa, in Southeast Asia, in Europe, in North America, and, most notably, in Latin America and the Middle East. The aim of these efforts is to “tell Iran’s story,” the same as any Western government broadcaster might strive to do. The difference is that, as an international pariah, Iran must pursue this work through more clandestine means. Global observers have long learned to doubt the truthfulness and sincerity of Iranian-branded media. As the United States considers policies to safeguard its elections and confront Iranian influence activities, three conclusions can be drawn about the nature of Iran’s modern propaganda apparatus. Iran’s digital influence efforts involve centralized goals and disparate agents. Different elements of Iran’s digital propaganda apparatus evidence the involvement of different government agencies. It is not clear how, or if, these agencies coordinate their operations. These goals are closely tied to Iran’s geopolitical interests. Nearly all content spread by Iran’s digital influence efforts relates directly to its worldview or specific foreign policy objectives. Consequently, it is easier to identify the operations of Iran than those of other actors like Russia, whose content is more likely to be politically agnostic. Iran may attempt direct electoral interference in 2020 and beyond. To date, there is little evidence that Iran has sought to affect the outcome of a US election. This does not, however, preclude future such campaigns based on Iranian interest in achieving rapprochement with the United States.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Conflict, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
1973. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region
- Author:
- Bina Hussein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations
1974. PeaceGame Venezuela: Pathways to Peace
- Author:
- Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In October 2019, PeaceGame Venezuela convened global leaders in Washington, D.C. to advance thinking around how Venezuelans and the international community should prepare for the potential of complete state collapse in Venezuela. This undesirable scenario must be considered as the domestic situation and the regional and global implications further deteriorate. This high-level crisis simulation was a collaboration between Foreign Policy, the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, and Florida International University.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Peacekeeping, Democracy, Crisis Management, Peace, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Venezuela
1975. Covid-19 Disinformation & Social Media Manipulation
- Author:
- Elise Thomas, Albert Zhang, and Jake Wallis
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- ASPI ICPC has investigated a campaign of cross-platform inauthentic activity, conducted by Chinese-speaking actors and broadly in alignment with the political goal of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to denigrate the standing of the US. This appears to be targeted primarily at Western and US-based audiences by artificially boosting legitimate media and social media content in order to amplify divisive or negative narratives about the US. This has included highlighting racial tensions, amplifying criticisms of the US’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, and political and personal scandals linked to President Donald Trump. However, there’s no clear indication of a partisan lean in this campaign. President Trump appears to be criticised in his capacity as a leader of the US rather than as a presidential candidate. This activity has been conducted primarily in English, with a smaller amount of Chinese-language content. It relies on a high degree of automation and appears to have achieved low engagement across both Facebook and Twitter. The divergent tactics used in this campaign suggest that’s unconnected to the state-linked operations studied by ASPI ICPC in Tweeting through the Great Firewall and Retweeting through the Great Firewall. There’s no clear actor—state or non-state—to which attribution can be made from this investigation. It does appear that those behind the campaign commonly type in double-byte fonts used for Asian languages, including Chinese, and that a small number of accounts appear to have been used in an earlier campaign targeting the Falun Gong / Falun Dafa community in the US. This activity is valuable as a case study because it highlights the ways in which social media platforms provide a vector for small-scale actors to engage in covert political influence campaigns targeting citizens and voters in other nations in ways that can complement state-driven propaganda. The investigation offers insights into behavioural patterns that can reveal coordinated inauthentic activity designed to drive influence, even when it is disguised through selective sharing of authentic content by accounts with profiles that offer a veneer of legitimacy
- Topic:
- Internet, Social Media, COVID-19, and Misinformation
- Political Geography:
- Australia, North America, and United States of America
1976. Retweeting through the Great Firewall: A persistent and undeterred threat actor
- Author:
- Jake Wallis, Tom Uren, Elise Thomas, Albert Zhang, Samantha Hoffman, Lin Li, Alex Pascoe, and Danielle Cave
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This report analyses a persistent, large-scale influence campaign linked to Chinese state actors on Twitter and Facebook. This activity largely targeted Chinese-speaking audiences outside of the Chinese mainland (where Twitter is blocked) with the intention of influencing perceptions on key issues, including the Hong Kong protests, exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui and, to a lesser extent Covid-19 and Taiwan. Extrapolating from the takedown dataset, to which we had advanced access, given to us by Twitter, we have identified that this operation continues and has pivoted to try to weaponise the US Government’s response to current domestic protests and create the perception of a moral equivalence with the suppression of protests in Hong Kong.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Internet, Social Media, COVID-19, Misinformation, and Twitter
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1977. Covid-19 attracts patriotic troll campaigns in support of China’s geopolitical interests
- Author:
- Albert Zhang and Elise Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This new research highlights the growing significance and impact of Chinese non-state actors on western social media platforms. Across March and April 2020, this loosely coordinated pro-China trolling campaign on Twitter has: Harassed and mimicked western media outlets; Impersonated Taiwanese users in an effort to undermine Taiwan’s position with the World Health Organisation (WHO); Spread false information about the Covid-19 outbreak; Joined in pre-existing inauthentic social media campaigns.
- Topic:
- World Health Organization, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, Social Media, COVID-19, Misinformation, and Twitter
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia
1978. Covid-19 disinformation and social media manipulation trends
- Author:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- A range of actors are manipulating the information environment to exploit the Covid-19 crisis for strategic gain. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is tracking many of these state and non-state actors online and will occasionally publish investigative data-driven reporting that will focus on the use of disinformation, propaganda, extremist narratives and conspiracy theories. The bulk of ASPI’s data analysis uses our in-house Influence Tracker tool—a machine learning and data analytics capability that draws out insights from multi-language social media datasets. This report includes three case studies that feature China, Taiwan, Russia and Africa
- Topic:
- Internet, Social Media, COVID-19, and Misinformation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Taiwan, and Asia
1979. Clean pipes: Should ISPs provide a more secure internet?
- Author:
- Tom Uren
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- One of the largest online challenges facing Australia is to provide effective cybersecurity to the majority of internet users who don’t have the skills or resources to defend themselves. This paper explores the concept of ‘Clean Pipes’, which is the idea that internet service providers (ISPs) could provide security services to their customers to deliver a level of default security. The Australian Government looks to be implementing a version of Clean Pipes: on 30 June 2020 the Prime Minister announced a funding commitment to ‘prevent malicious cyber activity from ever reaching millions of Australians across the country by blocking known malicious websites and computer viruses at speed’.1 This paper examines arguments for Clean Pipes and possible implementation roadblocks.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Australia
1980. Thailand’s strategic drift: Domestic determinants amidst superpower competition
- Author:
- Thitinan Pongsudhirak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- After more than five years of military-authoritarian government following its 13th successful coup in May 2014, Thailand’s most recent elections on 24 March 2019 yielded a controversial parliament and a fractious post-election coalition government, headed by incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. This report argues that despite the challenges of domestic political preoccupations and the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, Thailand’s strategic role in the Indo-Pacific is too important to be marginalized and that the country is an indispensable piece of the regional jigsaw puzzle in an era of global power shifts and transitions. The current Sino-US competition involves far-reaching battleground between democracy and authoritarianism, and Thailand – one of America’s oldest treaty ally with increasingly close ties with China – is strategically consequential. The report explains the complexity of Thai’s foreign policy and implications for Australia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
1981. Winning Hearts and Likes: How foreign affairs and defence agencies use Facebook
- Author:
- Damien Spry
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For defence and diplomacy, digital media, and specifically social media, have become an unavoidable aspect of their operations, communications and strategic international engagement, but the use of those media isn’t always understood or appreciated by governments. While the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and the Department of Defence (DoD) both use social media, including accounts managed by diplomatic posts overseas and by units of the ADF, both departments can improve how they reach and engage online. It’s important to note, however, that their use cases and audiences are different. DFAT’s audience is primarily international and varies by geographical location. Defence has a more local audience and focus. More importantly than the content, online engagement is dependent on the strength of the ties between the senders or sharers and the recipients of the content. For both departments, improving those online ties is vital as they seek to influence. The Australian Government should use social media far more strategically to engage international audiences—particularly in the diplomatic and defence portfolios. Both DFAT and Defence should review outdated digital strategies, cross-promote more content and demonstrate transparency and accountability by articulating and publishing social media policies. Both departments should create more opportunities for training and the sharing of skills and experiences of public diplomacy staff. They should refrain from relying solely on engagement metrics as success measures (that is, as a measure of an individual’s, usually senior staff’s or heads of missions’, level of ability or achievement). Instead, by changing the emphasis from the producers of social media content to the audiences that interact with it, the engagement data can be usefully regarded as a proxy for attention and interest. This can tell us what kinds of audiences (mostly by location) are engaged, and what types of content they do and don’t engage with. This information indicates the (limited) utility of social media; this should guide online engagement policy. This report also highlights and recognises the value of social media for the defence community — especially as a means of providing information and support for currently serving personnel and their families—by supporting the use of Facebook for those purposes by all defence units. DFAT should remove the direction for all Australian heads of mission overseas to be active on social media. While this presence is indeed useful and boosts the number of global government accounts, if our ambassadors aren’t interested in resourcing those accounts, the result can be sterile social media accounts that don’t engage and that struggle to connect with publics online. Instead, both departments should encourage those who are interested in and skilled at digital diplomacy to use openness, warmth and personality to engage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Social Media, and Facebook
- Political Geography:
- Australia
1982. From concentrated vulnerability to distributed lethality—or how to get more maritime bang for the buck with our offshore patrol vessels
- Author:
- Marcus Hellyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This report proposes a way for the Australian Government to acquire maritime war-fighting capability quickly and affordably while promoting Australian industry and the continuous Naval Shipbuilding Program. It would deliver substantial new maritime capability in the next few years, in contrast to the current investment program, and it would introduce a transformative force structure for the price of one or two traditional large multi-role platforms. This would address key challenges faced by the ADF by enabling it to transition more quickly to a force structure that better supports operating concepts employing distributed lethality and greater use of autonomous systems and human–machine teaming.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Military Strategy, and Navy
- Political Geography:
- Australia
1983. A Pacific disaster prevention review
- Author:
- Paul Barnes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Disaster risk reduction is a global policy issue. Reducing the likelihood and severity of damage and related cascading and cumulative impacts from natural hazards has become central to all nations and has triggered the evolution of international cooperation, multilateral responses and humanitarian aid efforts over many years. The nexus between natural hazards and vulnerability is central to appreciating the scale of the damage caused by large disasters and resultant sociotechnical impacts. Multilateral efforts to mitigate the impacts of weather and climate hazards have progressed over time. The Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation was a harbinger for the Hyogo Framework for Action, which emphasised building the resilience of communities and nations to the effects of disasters, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction as the current flagship of unified effort. Pacific island countries (PICs) have long been affected by weather-related disasters. Many PICs have been listed among the top 10 most disaster-prone countries in the World Risk Index over several years. In addition to damaging winds a convergence of flash flooding, king tides and high intensity rainfall contributed to damage to essential services, food supply and displacement of people across island economies. This year marks the fifth year of applying the Sendai Framework to Disaster risk reduction efforts globally - completing one-third of the Framework’s operational life cycle. It seems an opportune time to take stock of the challenges faced by selected PICs in incorporating guidance from the Sendai Framework into policy, legislation and practice. This report details independent views on challenges to implementing the Sendai Framework in eight Pacific economies. It does not pursue an in-depth analysis of constraints or impediments to implementation of the framework but seeks to present independent views on the ‘fit’ of the Sendai Framework to local needs in a general context of the Four priorities central to the Framework. It hoped that it can contribute to ongoing discussion and thought about important issues in a vibrant yet vulnerable region.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Multilateralism, Crisis Management, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Asia-Pacific
1984. The party speaks for you: Foreign interference and the Chinese Communist Party’s united front system
- Author:
- Alex Joske
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- What’s the problem? The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is strengthening its influence by co-opting representatives of ethnic minority groups, religious movements, and business, science and political groups. It claims the right to speak on behalf of those groups and uses them to claim legitimacy. These efforts are carried out by the united front system, which is a network of party and state agencies responsible for influencing groups outside the party, particularly those claiming to represent civil society. It manages and expands the United Front, a coalition of entities working towards the party’s goals.1 The CCP’s role in this system’s activities, known as united front work, is often covert or deceptive.2 The united front system’s reach beyond the borders of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—such as into foreign political parties, diaspora communities and multinational corporations—is an exportation of the CCP’s political system.3 This undermines social cohesion, exacerbates racial tension, influences politics, harms media integrity, facilitates espionage, and increases unsupervised technology transfer. General Secretary Xi Jinping’s reinvigoration of this system underlines the need for stronger responses to CCP influence and technology-transfer operations around the world. However, governments are still struggling to manage it effectively and there is little publicly available analysis of the united front system. This lack of information can cause Western observers to underestimate the significance of the united front system and to reduce its methods into familiar categories. For example, diplomats might see united front work as ‘public diplomacy’ or ‘propaganda’ but fail to appreciate the extent of related covert activities. Security officials may be alert to criminal activity or espionage while underestimating the significance of open activities that facilitate it. Analysts risk overlooking the interrelated facets of CCP influence that combine to make it effective.4 What’s the solution? Governments should disrupt the CCP’s capacity to use united front figures and groups as vehicles for covert influence and technology transfer. They should begin by developing analytical capacity for understanding foreign interference. On that basis, they should issue declaratory policy statements that frame efforts to counter it. Countermeasures should involve law enforcement, legislative reform, deterrence and capacity building across relevant areas of government. Governments should mitigate the divisive effect united front work can have on communities through engagement and careful use of language. Law enforcement, while critically important, shouldn’t be all or even most of the solution. Foreign interference often takes place in a grey area that’s difficult to address through law enforcement actions. Strengthening civil society and media must be a fundamental part of protecting against interference. Policymakers should make measures to raise the transparency of foreign influence a key part of the response
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Foreign Interference, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Australia/Pacific
1985. Genomic surveillance: Inside China's DNA dragnet
- Author:
- Emile Dirks and James Leibold
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- What’s the problem? The Chinese Government is building the world’s largest police-run DNA database in close cooperation with key industry partners across the globe. Yet, unlike the managers of other forensic databases, Chinese authorities are deliberately enrolling tens of millions of people who have no history of serious criminal activity. Those individuals (including preschool-age children) have no control over how their samples are collected, stored and used. Nor do they have a clear understanding of the potential implications of DNA collection for them and their extended families. Earlier Chinese Government DNA collection campaigns focused on Tibet and Xinjiang, but, beginning in late 2017, the Ministry of Public Security expanded the dragnet across China, targeting millions of men and boys with the aim to ‘comprehensively improve public security organs’ ability to solve cases, and manage and control society’.1 This program of mass DNA data collection violates Chinese domestic law and global human rights norms. And, when combined with other surveillance tools, it will increase the power of the Chinese state and further enable domestic repression in the name of stability maintenance and social control. Numerous biotechnology companies are assisting the Chinese police in building this database and may find themselves complicit in these violations. They include multinational companies such as US-based Thermo Fisher Scientific and major Chinese companies like AGCU Scientific and Microread Genetics. All these companies have an ethical responsibility to ensure that their products and processes don’t violate the fundamental human rights and civil liberties of Chinese citizens. What’s the solution? The forensic use of DNA has the potential to solve crimes and save lives; yet it can also be misused and reinforce discriminatory law enforcement and authoritarian political control. The Chinese Government and police must end the compulsory collection of biological samples from individuals without records of serious criminal wrongdoing, destroy all samples already collected, and remove all DNA profiles not related to casework from police databases. China must enact stringent restrictions on the collection, storage, use and transfer of human genomic data. The Chinese Government must also ensure that it adheres to the spirit of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1966), the International Declaration on Human Genetic Data (2003), the Universal Declaration on the Human Genome and Human Rights (1997) and the Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989), as well as China’s own Criminal Law (2018). National and international legal experts have condemned previous efforts to enrol innocent civilians and children in forensic DNA databases, and the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to privacy should investigate the Chinese Government’s current collection program for any violations of international law and norms.2 Foreign governments must strengthen export controls on biotechnology and related intellectual property and research data that’s sold to or shared with the Chinese Government and its domestic public and private partners. Chinese and multinational companies should conduct due diligence and independent audits to ensure that their forensic DNA products and processes are not being used in ways that violate the human and civil rights of Chinese citizens.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Minorities, Surveillance, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and DNA
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
1986. After Covid-19: Australia and the world rebuild (Volume 1)
- Author:
- John Coyne and Peter Jennings
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This Strategy report offers policy-focused analysis of the world we will face once the pandemic has passed. At a time when all our assumptions about the shape of Australian society and the broader global order are being challenged, we need to take stock of likely future directions. The report analyses 26 key topics, countries and themes, ranging from Australia’s domestic situation through to the global balance of power, climate and technology issues. In each case we asked the authors to consider four questions. What impact did Covid-19 have on their research topic? What will recovery mean? Will there be differences in future? What policy prescriptions would you recommend for the Australian government?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Climate Change, Disaster Relief, National Security, Science and Technology, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Global Focus
1987. Running on empty? A case study of fuel security for civil and military air operations at Darwin airport
- Author:
- John Coyne, Tony McCormack, and Hal Crichton-Standish
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Most Australians have no idea how quickly they’ll be running on empty if fuel supplies from overseas are cut in a crisis. For decades, the nation has relied on risky, “just in time” deliveries of the fuel necessary for transport systems, industry, policing and individual motoring needs—and even the operations of the Australian Defence Force. This report describes how this situation is so fraught, and the national reserve so small, that during major military exercises and actual operations such as the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, fuel stocks have reached critically low levels.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Fossil Fuels, and Aviation
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1988. Terrorism is terrorism: The Christchurch terror attack from an Israeli CT perspective
- Author:
- Boaz Ganor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Print this page SR155 Terrorism is terrorism - banner 19 MAY 2020 Terrorism is terrorism: The Christchurch terror attack from an Israeli CT perspective By Professor Boaz Ganor This report by Professor Boaz Ganor examines the different phases of the Christchurch terror attack, its similarities to and differences from Islamic jihadist terror attacks, and the lessons to be learnt for preventing, thwarting and managing such attacks, based on Israeli counter-terrorism experience. Lone-wolf attacks have become a widespread phenomenon in many countries, some have ended with a limited number of casualties. The 2019 Christchurch terror attack resulted in dozens of casualties. This report rigorously examines each phase of the attack to assess where points of intervention may have been overlooked and what can be learned from this experience to evolve counter-terrorism strategy and methods. Professor Ganor shares key lessons from the Christchurch attack that will help prevent or thwart future attacks through social media intelligence, artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data, security, gun regulation, damage mitigation and victim treatment, post attack activity, and international cooperation.
- Topic:
- National Security, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and New Zealand
1989. Cybercrime in Southeast Asia: Combating a global threat locally
- Author:
- Jonathan Lusthaus
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- What’s the problem? Cybercrime is a serious threat facing Australia and the world, but this criminal activity is often wrongly viewed as a near invisible online phenomenon, rather than a ‘real world’ concern. Behind every attack sits one or more people in a physical location. Those people are products of particular socio-economic conditions, which influence the types of regional and local cybercrime activity they specialise in. Cybercrime isn’t evenly distributed around the globe, but is centred around hotspots, which offer potential breeding grounds or safe harbours from where offenders can strike. This is true in Australia’s own region, where some Southeast Asian countries are emerging as bases for serious regional, and even global, cybercrime threats. We’re not proactively tackling the locations where the cybercrime threat develops and matures. What’s the solution? Australia’s current approach to fighting cybercrime needs to be augmented to account more seriously for this local dimension, particularly in Southeast Asia, and our fight against cybercrime should be more targeted, enduring and forward-looking. While it makes sense to support international cooperation in the fight against cybercrime, those efforts need to be targeted to specific hotspots where the problem is the most acute and Australia’s contributions can provide the greatest value for money. This involves the identification of current or future cybercriminal hotspots within Australia’s near region. Australia’s existing law enforcement capacity-building programs should be matched specifically to those countries producing the biggest cybercrime threat. Deeper relationships should also be developed between investigators in Australia and those countries through more cyber liaison posts and exchange programs. Finally, Australia should adopt prevention programs that seek to block offenders’ pathways into cybercrime and promote those programs to suitable cybercrime hotspots in the region.
- Topic:
- Crime, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Southeast Asia
1990. North of 26° south and the security of Australia: Views from The Strategist Vol. 2
- Author:
- John Coyne
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- North of 26° south and the security of Australia Volume 2’, is a new report by ASPI’s The North and Australia’s Security Program. The report builds on Volume 1 by presenting an all new series of articles by a range of trusted and up and coming authors exploring the continued importance of Northern Australia to national security and defence strategy. Northern Australia had become key political, military and economic terrain in a new era of major-power competition. Despite those developments, Australian policymakers have struggled to develop a cohesive northern Australia strategy. While Australia has a long-term defence capability plan, we need to continue to test our assumptions about the defence of northern Australia and the north’s significance to national security. In December 2019, Defence had finished the first draft of its internal review of Australia’s 2016 Defence White Paper. The review was meant to test the White Paper’s underlying assumptions. Arguably, the economic, social and geopolitical changes driven by Covid-19 will be historically significant, and that will require all-new thinking about northern Australia. This report provides much needed contemporary analysis of the criticality of the North to Australia’s national security and defence.
- Topic:
- National Security, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1991. National security agencies and the cloud: An urgent capability issue for Australia
- Author:
- John Coyne, Michael Shoebridge, and Albert Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This new ASPI report, argues for the development of a national security cloud. If the community doesn’t shift to cloud infrastructure, it’ll cut itself off from the most powerful software and applications available, placing itself in a less capable position using legacy software that vendors no longer support. The report’s authors argue that if this need isn’t addressed rapidly and comprehensively, Australia will quite simply be at a major disadvantage against potential adversaries who are using this effective new technology at scale to advance their own analysis and operational performance. The report identifies four significant obstacles that stand in the way of Australia’s national security community moving to cloud infrastructure. These obstacles need to be crossed, and the change needs to be driven by ministers and agency heads. Ministers and agency heads have both the responsibility and perspective to look beyond the important current technical security standards and rules and think about the capability benefit that cloud computing can bring to Australia’s national security. They’re the ones who must balance opportunity and risk.
- Topic:
- National Security, Cybersecurity, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1992. Returning to work during the pandemic
- Author:
- Michael Shoebridge
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- National Cabinet is meeting to begin the pathway to get Australia back to work and school. That's while we are still in the midst of 'flattening the curve' and in a world without a vaccine or even effective therapeutic treatment to reduce death rates from the virus. So, how might Australia return to work without getting back on the elevator of exponentially growing infection and deaths? This Strategic Insight sketches out that path, with the answers involving mass testing, and companies funded and supported to do rapid testing, data collection and analysis. It will rely on smartphone apps for data collection to enable outbreak suppression and contact tracing. Critically, national cabinet must communicate how this new approach will work alongside the existing social distancing restrictions, which will need to remain in place for months to come. The hygiene and distancing protocols for this 'return to work' will be easier for advanced manufacturing workplaces, it turns out, as those workplaces are already pretty socially distant, with low levels of staffing and high levels of automation. A lot of construction work is mainly outdoors and is also now more mechanised than labour intensive. And a regime of testing workers on arrival, combined with strict workplace health protocols, will probably be feasible for many other manufacturing, large-scale agricultural and white collar workplaces—including our parliaments. Small businesses will struggle in the absence of almost ubiquitous community testing, unless ‘precinct’ approaches provide testing and health hygiene for facilities that house groups of such businesses (shopping centres and business parks are examples). This diversity across workplaces and organisations means that taking the path advocated here—tests, data, apps and surveillance—will involve a clear and pervasive communication effort between our leaders and our people. Confusion about who’s in, who’s out, which businesses can start planning to get back into operation in facilities now closed and which must stick to what they have now will unravel this approach. And being able to explain how the health surveillance approach has been designed to work with our democratic society and to not be a part of any future national security surveillance powers will be key to bringing different parts of our population along. Again, this communication task is a job for the national cabinet.
- Topic:
- Health, Labor Issues, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1993. Eyes wide open: Managing the Australia-China Antarctic relationship
- Author:
- Anthony Bergin and Tony Press
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Given recent broader tensions in the China–Australia relationship, China’s global ambitions, lack of progress on key Antarctic policy initiatives and the potential for significant geopolitical consequences for the future of Antarctica and for Australia’s strategic interests, it’s important that Australian policymakers reconsider our long-term Antarctic policy settings. The report found no clear evidence that China is violating the Antarctic Treaty. But it argues we should apply a more sharply focused assessment of the costs and benefits of cooperation, given China’s more assertive international posture and increasing interests in Antarctica. The recommendations in the report are designed to maximise the value and mitigate the downside risks of China engagement for our Antarctic and broader national interests. Overall, we should adopt a more transactional approach in our Antarctic engagement with China, making it clear what we require from cooperation and what we expect from China. Given the track record Beijing has in moving rapidly on a broad front, as it’s done in the South China Sea, we need to be prepared to respond to a rapid increase in the speed and scale of China’s actions in Antarctica.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Antarctica
1994. Weaponised deep fakes
- Author:
- Hannah Smith and Katherine Mansted
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Fakes are all around us. Academic analysis suggests that they’re difficult to spot without new sensors, software or other specialised equipment, with 1 in 5 photos you see being fraudulent. The exposure of deep fakes and the services they facilitate can potentially lead to suppression of information and a general breakdown in confidence in public authorities and trust. We need to react not just to false or compromised claims but to those who would try to exploit them for nefarious purposes. We should not assume the existence of fake news unless we have compelling evidence to the contrary, but when we do, we should not allow the propaganda. I’ve never been more sure of this point than today. —GPT-2 deep learning algorithm The foreword to this report was written by a machine. The machine used a ‘deep fake’ algorithm — a form of artificial intelligence (AI) — to generate text and a headshot. Deep fakes are increasingly realistic and easy to create. The foreword took us approximately five minutes to generate, using free, open-source software.1
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1995. Counterterrorism Yearbook 2020
- Author:
- Isaac Kfir and John Coyne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- This year’s Counterterrorism Yearbook draws upon 19 contributing authors, each a renowned thought leader in their field, to promote practical counterterrorism solutions by reviewing a global range of terrorism developments and counterterrorism responses. ASIO’s Director General, Mike Burgess commends the publication for its ‘valuable contribution to the public discourse on counterterrorism’. While maintaining its geographic focus, the Yearbook now includes thematic chapters on mental health, strategic policing, the media, the terror–crime nexus and terrorist innovation. These new thematic chapters have been included to encourage governments to consider more proactive CT agendas that move beyond the current focus on disrupting plots and discouraging people from joining and supporting terrorist groups. The focus here has been on promoting new thinking on how to deal with emergent areas of concern, such as comorbidity of mental health, use of gaming platforms, and artificial intelligence.
- Topic:
- National Security, Counter-terrorism, Mental Health, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1996. Uyghurs for sale: 'Re-education', forced labour and surveillance beyond Xinjiang
- Author:
- Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, Danielle Cave, James Leibold, Kelsey Munro, and Nathan Ruser
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government has facilitated the mass transfer of Uyghur and other ethnic minority1 citizens from the far west region of Xinjiang to factories across the country. Under conditions that strongly suggest forced labour, Uyghurs are working in factories that are in the supply chains of at least 82 well-known global brands in the technology, clothing and automotive sectors, including Apple, BMW, Gap, Huawei, Nike, Samsung, Sony and Volkswagen. This report estimates that more than 80,000 Uyghurs were transferred out of Xinjiang to work in factories across China between 2017 and 2019, and some of them were sent directly from detention camps.2 The estimated figure is conservative and the actual figure is likely to be far higher. In factories far away from home, they typically live in segregated dormitories,3 undergo organised Mandarin and ideological training outside working hours,4 are subject to constant surveillance, and are forbidden from participating in religious observances.5 Numerous sources, including government documents, show that transferred workers are assigned minders and have limited freedom of movement.6 China has attracted international condemnation for its network of extrajudicial ‘re-education camps’ in Xinjiang.7 This report exposes a new phase in China’s social re-engineering campaign targeting minority citizens, revealing new evidence that some factories across China are using forced Uyghur labour under a state-sponsored labour transfer scheme that is tainting the global supply chain.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Minorities, Business, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Australia
1997. Australia's next cybersecurity strategy: Views from The Strategist
- Author:
- Fergus Hanson, Gai Brodtmann, Rachael Falk, Nigel Phair, Lesley Seebeck, and Peter A. Dutton
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Back in 2016, Australia launched a new national cybersecurity strategy. The strategy covers a four-year period to 2020, and given the changes in the security environment, an update is now clearly warranted. To that end, the government has just released a discussion paper to kick off the public consultation. The closing date for submissions on the discussion paper is 1 November. To complement the public submission process, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is initiating a public debate on what should be included in the next cybersecurity strategy. Contributions will be compiled into a report that we will deliver to the Department of Home Affairs to inform the strategy’s development. This Strategic Insight includes views from The Strategist published in late 2019.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1998. Australia's implementation of women, peace and security: Promoting regional security
- Author:
- Louise Allen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Australia’s implementation of women, peace and security examines the benefits of Australia strengthening its implementation of the women, peace and security agenda to bolster its regional stability and national security efforts. Since its formal establishment by the UN Security Council in October 2000, the women, peace and security agenda has become the central framework through which to advocate for women’s participation across all peace and security decision-making processes, to promote the rights of women and girls in conflict and crisis settings, and for the integration of gender perspectives into conflict prevention, resolution and post-conflict rebuilding efforts and throughout disaster and crisis responses. The agenda, when implemented holistically, can also complement states’ national security efforts and strategies aimed at promoting regional stability. The report highlights that while Australia has a positive story to tell particularly about its mainstreaming of the agenda across the Australian Defence Force, within international operations of the Australian Federal Police (AFP) and in its aid program. There are, however, significant inconsistencies and resourcing gaps in how Australia approaches the implementation of its commitments on the women, peace and security agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, United Nations, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
1999. ICT for development in the Pacific islands
- Author:
- Bart Hogeveen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Information and communication technologies (ICTs) as an invisible driver of socio-economic change have long captured the imagination of politicians, policymakers and aid professionals alike. Since the first fibre-optic submarine cable connected Fiji 20 years ago, many reports and studies have been written about the potential that the introduction of ICTs in the South Pacific would bring for reaching targets of poverty reduction and economic growth. The internet, mobile devices and e-commerce have already penetrated the Pacific, configured to the political, economic and sociocultural context of the various island nations. This report takes a step back and zooms in on one aspect of that digital revolution: e-government. E-Government is defined as a set of capabilities and activities that involves the use of ICTs by government to improve intragovernmental processes and to connect with citizens, businesses and industry. Fiji was the first island to get linked up to the global network of submarine communications cables in 2000. In 2020, all major islands in the region are connected through one or more domestic and international fibre-optic cables. The region is connected. This report finds that the potential of ICTs to enable stronger governance, effective public service delivery and better government services is there. In all countries that are part of this study, critical foundational infrastructure is in place: Government broadband networks that connect departments, schools and hospitals have been established. Central government data centres have been built, public registries are being digitised, and the introduction of national (digital) identities is currently being considered. All Pacific island states have introduced relevant strategy and policy documents and have reviewed, or are currently reviewing, legislation related to data-sharing, cybersecurity and universal access. All islands have an online presence that is steadily professionalising. Government (information) services are increasingly provided online, along with tourism information, fisheries data, geological data and meteorological forecasts. But there’s still a lot to be unlocked. Increased internet connectivity, the availability of mobile devices and online services and access to information are creating a greater demand from users to their governments. International donors similarly focus on the delivery of ‘digital aid’, using ICTs to provide international assistance more efficiently and effectively. This report asks the following questions: What capabilities have been established and are in place? What are the current policy issues? What can the international (donor) community do to enhance its support for the digitisation process of the Pacific island governments? The report reaches five main conclusions for the implementation of e-government and digital government initiatives, and it concludes with four recommendations for future programming of international support in the area of ICTs and e-government.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Communications, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
2000. Disrupted: The Reproductive Rights Issue
- Author:
- Katie Washington
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
- Abstract:
- This journal began with the aim to reject and disrupt the ‘single-story’ of mainstream foreign policy through highlighting both experienced and emerging voices from across the globe. Throughout the last four issues of Disrupted, we have sought to understand, challenge, and critique mainstream foreign policy. Through a post-colonial feminist analytical lens, our contributors from all around the world, have questioned the unquestioned objectivity of elitist, Western-centric foreign policy, and unpacked the complex connections between gender, race, ethnicity, sexuality that are embedded in the everyday actions and politics of people from across the world. We truly believe that Feminist Foreign Policy brings all voices to the table, through whichever medium they choose to express themselves, and alongside our expertly written articles, we aimed to challenge the academic and un-inclusive paradigm that foreign policy is embedded in by including artwork, poetry, and more. Regrettably, this issue will be the last of its kind and - for now - Disrupted as a project will be on hold. Disrupted was a passion project that was started with lots of good intentions but no budget. Until very recently, CFFP has been an entirely volunteer-run organisation, so the volunteer-run journal fit within that scope. No one, including CFFP volunteers and staff, has ever been reimbursed for this project. However, we strongly believe that we cannot continue producing a feminist journal without paying all editors and contributors for their labour. While members have received access to the journal in the past, in no way does the money generated from membership come even close to covering the cost of producing even a part of the journal. The small pot of money generated by Disrupted purchases/membership has only ever covered the cost of printing the journal, but even printing became very unsustainable (financially and environmentally) so we decided to go digital. Charging a small amount for access (£5 for a digital issue) was a path we thought we could use to generate money to offset project and event costs and pay for labour, but again, the numbers haven't got close to balancing out. It's been a bit of trial and error to see how we could make Disrupted sustainable. Indeed, over the past year, we've gotten done a wonderful job at figuring out how to source sustainable funding for projects and pay people for their time. However, Disrupted is one of the pieces of the CFFP puzzle that we haven't quite figured out a solid funding model for, nor found someone willing to fund it (yet!). This brings us to our final issue of Disrupted in its current form. With a thematic focus on Sexual and Reproductive Health, Rights, and Justice, our contributors tackle issues from decriminalising abortion to menstrual equity and sustainability, to reproductive health conditions, to the Trump Administration’s global gag rule, and more. Across the world there is an urgency of providing a platform within foreign policy and beyond for women and minorities’ voices on these issues that directly, and often violently, impact and oppress their daily lives. We hope that we have contributed to building this platform, making foreign policy more feminist, more transparent, and more intersectional. Thank you to every single one of the contributors and volunteer Editors, past and present, who have helped make Disrupted a reality. A special thank you to Louise Scarce – without you, this issue wouldn’t have been possible. And, finally, thank you to you, our members and readers, for supporting us. With your support, we have amplified a different and more nuanced conversation that can better inform policy decisions and begin to alleviate global inequality. I am extremely proud to have been Editor-in-Chief of Disrupted, and I hope that this is only goodbye for now.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, Feminism, Decolonization, and Reproductive Rights
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus