Content Type: Special Report / Topic:

501. The state of the European Union

Author:: Anand Menon and Simon Usherwood
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: In ‘The State of the European Union’, some of the most respected scholars working on the EU provide their analysis of its current state, looking, in turn, at member states, at the EU institutions, at a number of policy areas and cross-cutting political themes and at EU relations with key external partners. This is a crucial moment in the history of the European Union. It has taken on new responsibilities in the face of new challenges and now must deliver, whilst simultaneously managing deep and potentially debilitating divisions between member states. There is all to play for.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

502. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fourth edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fourth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since March 2022.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

503. The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill: context and consequences

Author:: Catherine Barnard, Joelle Grogan, Katy Hayward, Andrew McCormick, and Jill Rutter
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The UK government introduced a piece of primary legislation, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, in response to concerns over the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. This report explains some of the context to the Bill, the conditions in which it has emerged and its potential ramifications for Northern Ireland, the UK, the EU, and UK-EU relations. It also considers a number of ways in which the stand-off over the Protocol might be resolved. The report brings together the insights of several experts: Catherine Barnard (University of Cambridge, and UKICE), Joelle Grogan (UKICE), Katy Hayward (Queen’s University Belfast), Andrew McCormick (formerly lead official on Brexit for the Northern Ireland Executive) and Jill Rutter (UKICE).
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Northern Ireland

504. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: fifth edition

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe’s series of regulatory divergence trackers provide an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU regulation. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the fifth edition of the tracker, covering changes which have taken place since May 2022. It finds there are 13 cases of active divergence (where the UK or some part of it changes its rules), nine of passive divergence (where the EU changes its rules and the UK does not follow), and three of procedural divergence (changes in the systems for managing pre-existing divergence). In addition, there are two cases of a new category – legal action – where the actions of one side result in the other initiating a legal dispute.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

505. Levelling up: what England thinks

Author:: Suzanne Hall, Will Jennings, Lawrence McKay, Sophie Stowers, Paula Surridge, and Alan Wager
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: For all the discussion there has been about ‘levelling up’ and the problem of regional inequality in the UK, little energy has been expended in finding out how people feel about their areas, what could and should be done to improve them, and who they trust to actually do it. The following report aims to fill this gap. UK in a Changing Europe partnered with YouGov to carry out a survey of over 20,000 people from across England. This was the first survey of its kind on levelling up and regional inequality, and the first to assess the impact of changes to how England is governed, including the effect of the introduction of Metro Mayors. This survey was accompanied by a series of focus groups conducted by NatCen and King’s College London’s Policy Institute in Barking and Dagenham, Blackpool, Nottingham, Blyth and Barnsley – designed to capture the views of metropolitan boroughs, rural towns and coastal communities. The aim was to find out how people in England feel about their local communities, what policies they feel would be most effective when it comes to ‘levelling up’ the country, how they would like these policies to be delivered, and who they trust to deliver them.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Inequality, Economy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

506. A beginner’s guide to the European Union

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: UK in a Changing Europe is launching a new series of ‘beginner’s guides’ – quick, easy guides to the most pressing issues, important institutions and divisive debates in politics and society today. We’re kicking off our series with a guide to the European Union, an institution encompassing around 47,000 staff, seven institutions, over thirty agencies, and a population of almost 450 million. It’s pretty complicated, to say the least. But here we have tried to set out in an accessible and straightforward way what the EU is and how it came to be, what its institutions are and what they do, the EU budget, and how the EU makes and enforces laws and regulations. This guide is perfect for those who are learning about European institutions and multilevel governance for the first time during their politics A-level. It will also be useful for undergraduate students beginning their studies in law, politics and economics who want to know more about how the EU interacts with their chosen subject area, or seasoned professionals who just want a quick reminder on how member states and European bodies cooperate on key policy areas.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, and Institutions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

507. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:: David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the eﬀects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely eﬀects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report ﬁnds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariﬀ barriers. However, non-tariﬀ barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse eﬀects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour ﬂows, both aﬀecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conﬂicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to aﬀect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential beneﬁts from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected beneﬁts of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring beneﬁts or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any beneﬁts that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to beneﬁt from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

508. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:: Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

509. An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence

Author:: Katy Hayward and Nicola McEwen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: This report, An EU border across Britain: Scotland’s borders after independence, considers the prospect of an independent Scotland within the European Union, not as a prediction, but to illustrate how Brexit has profoundly changed the context in which independence is contested and could be realised. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, the Anglo-Scottish border would become not just an international border between Scotland and what remains of the UK, but a new land border between the EU and the UK. Some of the crossborder arrangements for an independent Scotland that had been envisaged in the 2014 referendum would no longer be possible as a result of the UK’s departure from the EU. Because we know what is required by the EU at its external borders, it is possible to outline the border-related ramifications for an independent Scotland with EU membership. Such ramifications centre upon the land border with its closest neighbour.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, Brexit, Borders, Independence, and Referendum
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

510. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:: Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:: International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

511. Civil Society-Led Truth-Seeking Initiatives: Expanding Opportunities for Acknowledgment and Redress

Author:: Eduardo González Cueva, Jill Williams, and Félix Reátegui Carrillo
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This study reviews civil society-led truth-seeking initiatives in different regions of the world drawing on their experiences, methodologies, and contributions. It identifies lessons learned and best practices and presents practical options for activists considering similar endeavors. The report is inspired by and builds on the work of transitional justice practitioners, including at ICTJ, who deploy wide-ranging modalities to advance truth seeking, including oral history, artwork, theatrical productions, reenactments, museum exhibits, memorials, films, and documentation projects. The right to the truth is a fundamental component of redress for victims of massive human rights violations. Institutional silence, suppression of complaints, and refusal to acknowledge such violations further perpetuates them by protecting and enabling those responsible. In many contexts, government-supported truth commissions are not possible. Moreover, total reliance on state-sanctioned formats can result in one-size-fits-all approaches to truth seeking, devoid of creativity or potential. In the absence of political will, civil society actors have responded to demands for truth by devising and carrying out truth-seeking efforts independently, using a wide array of tools and methods. Civil society-led truth-seeking initiatives provide a practical channel by which communities can respond to demands for redress when the state fails to deliver on its obligations to protect victims’ rights. While truth-seeking initiatives can take many forms, they generally share three main objectives: (1) establish the facts about human rights violations that remain disputed or denied and validate different interpretations and analyses of those facts; (2) protect, acknowledge, and empower victims and survivors; and (3) inform public policy, promote institutional reform, and contribute to social and political transformation. Through an examination of case studies from the United States, Colombia, Scotland, and West Papua, the report highlights common considerations and procedural questions that civil society groups should consider when designing and implementing a truth-seeking mechanism. These considerations can help inspire and guide civil society actors as they lead truth-seeking efforts in the United States and around the world.
Topic:: Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Engagement, Reparations, Gender, Atrocity Prevention, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Colombia, South America, North America, and United States of America

512. Changing Local Governance in Yemen The areas under control of the internationally recognised government

Author:: Katharina Jautz, Monder Basalma, and Joshua Rogers
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: Local governance is changing in Yemen, with far-reaching effects on the way state institutions function, on central-local relations, and on service provision and citizens’ experiences of the state. Earlier Berghof research (Rogers 2020) highlighted the ways in which war and Houthi policy were re-drawing central-local relations and the functioning of local governance in the areas under Ansar Allah’s control. This paper complements that investigation by examining the changes under way in the areas under the control of the internationally recognised government.
Topic:: Governance, Local, State Building, and Social Services
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

513. Mediating the political transformation of non-state armed groups Workshop report

Author:: Berghof Foundation
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: Together with the United Nations DPO DDR section, our team working to improve international support to transformation processes of non-state armed groups after wars and conflicts, organised a workshop with international experts in Berlin.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

514. Ties without Strings? Rebuilding Relations between Colombia and Venezuela

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Bogotá and Caracas are back on cordial terms after a period of rancour. Their interests may not always align precisely in the years ahead. But with deft diplomacy, and help from neighbours, the two countries can nonetheless keep repairing their links to mutual benefit.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

515. Stop Fighting Blind: Better Use-of-Force Oversight in the U.S. Congress

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The U.S. constitution divides war powers between the executive and legislative branches, so as to ensure that decisions about using force are collective and deliberative. Lawmakers’ role has receded, however, particularly in recent decades. Small steps would help them start reclaiming their prerogatives.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Legislation, Civil-Military Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

516. A Remedy for El Salvador’s Prison Fever

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Following a spate of murders, the Salvadoran government ordered mass roundups of suspected criminal gang members, throwing more than 53,000 in jail. The clampdown is popular but unsustainable. Authorities should develop a path out of gang life that members can choose.
Topic:: Crime, Governance, Police, and Gangs
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, and El Salvador

517. Trapped in Conflict: Reforming Military Strategy to Save Lives in Colombia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, says he will work to bring “total peace” to the countryside, including areas roiled by violent competition among criminal and other armed groups. This task will require significant changes to military approaches devised for fighting the insurgencies of the past.
Topic:: Crime, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, Peace, and Gangs
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

518. A New Era of Sectarian Violence in Pakistan

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A local jihadist group and a violent protest movement are driving renewed sectarian strife in Pakistan. To prevent a slide back into violence, Islamabad should ensure those inciting or perpetrating violent acts are prosecuted while denying hardliners the civic space to propagate their hatred.
Topic:: Religion, Protests, Violence, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

519. Realigning European Policy toward Palestine with Ground Realities

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Events in 2021 – particularly the Gaza war – put in sharp relief how much Europe’s policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs a refresh. The European Union and its member states should use the levers they have to push for their stated goal of a peaceful resolution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

520. Afghanistan’s Security Challenges under the Taliban

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: One year after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, fighting has decreased considerably. Yet serious security problems remain, not least the foreign militants still in the country. External actors should press the new authorities to fulfil their commitments and avoid any steps that could reignite large-scale violence.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Taliban, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

521. Hard Times in a Safe Haven: Protecting Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In recent years, Venezuelans have streamed into Colombia looking for work and respite from their country’s socio-economic meltdown. But dangers also await them, including the clutches of organised crime. Bogotá’s change of government is a chance to reset policy to keep the migrants safer.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Socioeconomics, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

522. Containing a Resilient ISIS in Central and North-eastern Syria

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Its self-declared caliphate is gone, but ISIS continues to stage attacks and intimidate the public in much of its former domain. The forces fighting the group need to hinder the militants’ movement between Syria’s regions – and, above all, to avoid debilitating conflicts with one another.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, War on Terror, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

523. Managing the Risks of Instability in the Western Balkans

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Western Balkan six – five of the former Yugoslavia’s successor states plus Albania – remain outside the EU as war wounds fester and reform efforts stumble. Brussels should find means short of promising accession to help guide these countries back onto the right track.
Topic:: Political stability, State Building, Strategic Stability, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

524. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
Topic:: Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

525. Avoiding a Return to War in Myanmar’s Rakhine State

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: An unofficial ceasefire has kept Rakhine State quiet compared to much of Myanmar following the 2021 coup. But friction is building between the military and ethnic Rakhine fighters. The parties should strike a formal deal to avert a return to war.
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

526. Iraq: Stabilising the Contested District of Sinjar

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

527. Risky Competition: Strengthening U.S.-China Crisis Management

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As their strategic rivalry grows, China and the U.S. are increasingly operating in close proximity in the Asia Pacific. An accident or misinterpreted signal could set off a wider confrontation. The danger level is low, but dialogue is needed to dial it down further.
Topic:: Conflict, Crisis Management, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

528. Syria: Ruling over Aleppo’s Ruins

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

529. Truce Test: The Huthis and Yemen’s War of Narratives

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Adversaries of Yemen’s Huthi rebels say they will never negotiate in good faith. Others think they might, given the right mix of incentives. With a nationwide truce in place, diplomats should give the latter hypothesis a shot.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Yemen and Persian Gulf

530. Managing Vigilantism in Nigeria: A Near-term Necessity

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Vigilantes have become so important to protecting the Nigerian public that for now the country has little choice but to rely on them. Yet there are dangers. Authorities should better regulate these groups, while working to restore citizens’ trust in the police.
Topic:: Governance, Conflict, Police, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

531. Saïed’s Tunisia: Promoting Dialogue and Fixing the Economy to Ease Tensions

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

532. Addressing Islamist Militancy in the Southern Philippines

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The transition to self-rule in the Bangsamoro, the majority-Muslim region in the southern Philippines, is proceeding apace. Militants outside the associated peace process are losing strength but could recover. Regional and national authorities should do all in their power to keep that from happening.
Topic:: Religion, Governance, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Philippines and Oceania

533. Rebels, Victims, Peacebuilders: Women in Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Years of fighting between separatists and the state in Cameroon have hit women hard, uprooting hundreds of thousands. The government and external partners should step up aid for the displaced. Donors should start planning now for including women activists in future peace talks.
Topic:: Women, Conflict, Peace, Victims, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

534. Southern Philippines: Fostering an Inclusive Bangsamoro

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The peace process in the Bangsamoro, the newly autonomous region in the southern Philippines, is making progress. But several groups, including minorities and women, could be better represented. Donors should join hands with interim authorities to ensure that self-rule delivers for all the area’s residents.
Topic:: Diversity, Peace, Identity, Inclusion, and Self-Rule
Political Geography:: Philippines and Oceania

535. Overcoming the Global Rift on Venezuela

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The political standoff in Venezuela continues as the country sinks deeper into socio-economic distress. Renewed talks between government and opposition – now on hold – give external partners of both sides an opening to push harder for resolution of the impasse. They should seize the opportunity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Strategic Interests, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

536. Women and Peacebuilding in Pakistan’s North West

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Women in north-western Pakistan have long been at the forefront of activism to bring peace and security to the region. More work is needed on legal, political and economic reforms for their protection and to help them make the greatest contribution possible to civic life.
Topic:: Women, Peace, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

537. Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Islamabad must tread carefully with its long-time Taliban allies back in power in Kabul. Pitfalls lie ahead for Pakistan’s domestic security and its foreign relations. The Pakistani government should encourage Afghanistan’s new authorities down the path of compromise with international demands regarding rights and counter-terrorism.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Asia

538. Brokering a Ceasefire in Yemen’s Economic Conflict

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Alongside the battles over territory, the parties to Yemen’s war are embroiled in fights for control of key parts of the country’s economy. The latter struggle causes great civilian suffering. The new UN envoy should make it a central task to achieve an economic truce.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Yemen and Persian Gulf

539. The Iran Nuclear Deal at Six: Now or Never

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After all is said and done, the Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015 remains the best way to achieve the West’s non-proliferation goals and the sanctions relief that Tehran seeks. The parties must not squander what is likely their last chance to save the accord.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

540. Myanmar’s Coup Shakes Up Its Ethnic Conflicts

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The numerous ethnic armed groups fighting Myanmar’s regime have taken different tacks after the 2021 coup. Some are aiding the parallel government; others are not. With civil strife set to continue for some time, donors should concentrate on mitigating war’s effects on the population.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Coup
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

541. Healthier Firms for a Stronger Recovery: Policies to Support Business and Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Andrew Powell and Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This report—the product of a joint working group convened by the Center for Global Development and the Inter-American Development Bank—focuses on firms and labor markets in Latin America and the Caribbean during the COVID-19 crisis and the highly uncertain recovery phase now underway. The ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, volatility in international financial markets, and fears of global stagflation (low growth and high inflation) combine with the impacts of the pandemic to make the economic environment particularly challenging. Through a balance sheet analysis, the report describes how larger firms have navigated the crisis by cutting back on variable costs and investment. It also focuses on small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), which appear to have suffered more in terms of closures and restrictions on credit access. The impacts on labor markets were unprecedented, with steep falls in employment and participation rates. A key question is whether the reallocation of resources, favoring firms in sectors that were hit less hard and able to take advantage of digital technologies, will persist. Key dangers are that informality is higher than ever, that productive resources remain trapped in small and less productive or ultimately unviable enterprises, and that firms are not rebuilding their capital stocks quickly. Drawing on an analysis of firms and labor markets, the report provides a set of recommendations for policymakers in the region and suggestions for international financial institutions to assist productive firms to invest, support the growth of new firms, and enhance labor market performance.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

542. Breakthrough to Policy Use Reinvigorating Impact Evaluation for Global Development

Author:: Julia Kaufman, Amanda Glassman, Ruth Levine, and Janeen Madan Keller
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In 2006, when a CGD working group, led by Ruth Levine, Bill Savedoff, and Nancy Birdsall, published its report When Will We Ever Learn? Improving Lives Through Impact Evaluation, very few social programs benefitted from studies that could determine whether or not they actually make a difference. Since then, the world has seen tremendous progress in harnessing better evidence to inform public policy decision making, especially from impact evaluations of programs in low- and middle-income countries. But COVID-19 has put a spotlight on an unfinished agenda, underscoring the need for high-quality, timely, and context-specific evidence—for both effectiveness and political credibility of the response. The pandemic has demonstrated the cost in lives and livelihoods lost when policymakers make decisions based on incomplete or outdated evidence and data. Given the potential real-world benefits, why have decision makers within governments, aid agencies, multilateral organizations, and NGOs not yet fully harnessed the value of evidence—including from impact evaluations—for better public policies? Looking ahead, how can the development community renew momentum and broaden bases of support for impact evaluation and the wider evidence agenda? These questions were the focus of a CGD Working Group on New Evidence Tools for Policy Impact, which set out to understand why these social benefits continue to go unrealized and to chart out a renewed funding agenda for greater value in government policymaking.
Topic:: Development, Leadership, Community, and Impact Evaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

543. Girls’ Education and Women’s Equality: How to Get More out of the World’s Most Promising Investment

Author:: Shelby Carvalho and David Evans
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: To hear talk of it, you might think educating girls is a silver bullet to solve all the world’s ills. A large and still growing collection of research demonstrates the wide-ranging benefits of girls’ education. Recent research has nuanced some of those findings, but the fundamental result stands: Educating girls is good for girls and good for the people around them
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

544. Schooling for All: Feasible Strategies to Achieve Universal Education

Author:: Justin Sandefur
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This report debates the case for specific public investments in education in low- and lower-middle-income countries, drawing on evidence of what has worked not just in small-scale experiments but historically and in large-scale national programs. Its messages are intended more for economic policymakers than educators, as they speak to what can be accomplished with fiscal instruments (money) and where trade-offs must be made. CGD does not take institutional positions. Each chapter is authored by a different set of CGD researchers (with some editorial steer), and each commentary is written by external contributors (who were promised space to disagree). This introduction tries to summarize the main arguments across all these contributions, noting points of consensus and ongoing debate.
Topic:: Development, Education, Reform, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

545. The Distortion of UN Resolution 2758 to Limit Taiwan’s Access to the United Nations

Author:: Jessica Drun and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: There is a campaign underway by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to reinterpret UN Resolution 2758 as based on its “One China” Principle and spread the fallacy that, through the resolution, UN member states came to a determination that Taiwan is a part of the PRC. Yet, in passing the resolution in 1971, the countries solely intended to grant the seat occupied by the Republic of China in the General Assembly and the Security Council to the PRC. This is reflected in the official historic record and meeting minutes as well as in the resolutions raised at the time for the General Assembly’s consideration. The PRC understood then that the resolution did not contain the Taiwan conclusions it wanted. Prime Minister Zhou Enlai noted that, if Resolution 2758 passed, “the status of Taiwan is not yet decided.” Beijing, through its proxies at the UN, expressed its unwillingness to join the organization if it allowed “‘two Chinas,’ ‘one China, one Taiwan,’ or ‘the status of Taiwan remaining to be determined.’” However, given that Beijing did not enjoy the same level of international influence then as it does today, it did not reject the resolution when it passed. Instead, PRC officials assumed the “China” seat and only later began to leverage their position to promote Beijing’s stance on Taiwan at the UN level. The PRC’s efforts to rewrite Taiwan’s status at the UN ramped up in the 1990s and early 2000s at the same time as the island’s democratization. The PRC has since worked to “internationalize” its “One China” Principle and to conflate it with UN Resolution 2758, a revisionist shift from the original intent of the document. Beijing has managed to further institutionalize and normalize its stance on Taiwan within the UN by signing secret agreements with UN bodies, restricting Taiwan’s access to the UN and its facilities, and embedding PRC nationals across various levels of UN staff. The UN and its specialized agencies have not made the texts of these agreements, such as that of the 2005 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the PRC and the World Health Organization, available to the public or to any entity beyond the main signatories, though leaked guidance memos provide insights into the scope of the MOU’s content (See Appendix B). The PRC has likewise sought to force its views on nomenclature relating to Taiwan within the UN. This includes withholding UN accreditation from NGOs and civil society groups that do not refer to Taiwan as a part of the PRC in their organizational materials or on their websites. Recently, it has come to light that the PRC and its representatives have altered historic UN documents to change references of “Taiwan” to “Taiwan, Province of China.” (Examples are presented in a case study.) These developments have played out alongside marked shifts in the guidance of the UN Office of Legal Affairs on Taiwan, where it only 15 years ago cited an ambiguous and undefined “One China” policy, but now reiterates the PRC position on Taiwan. The PRC has likewise used UN Resolution 2758 and bilateral normalization agreements with other member states to falsely claim that its “One China” Principle is a universally accepted norm. It has also ensured that a plurality of countries back its views at the UN level and will cast votes alongside it—particularly on issues of Taiwan’s participation—and it reinforces this support through economic pressure on governments. The PRC’s efforts to constrain Taiwan at the UN have broader implications for international governance, as it shows a prioritization of one member state’s national interests over the global community’s—as exemplified by Taiwan’s damaging exclusion from global health debates during the coronavirus pandemic. The United States opposes the PRC’s attempts to redefine UN Resolution 2758 and has pushed back against UN statements claiming that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, including issuing a 2007 “non-paper” asserting its position that Taiwan’s status is not yet determined. The PRC has recently attempted to use its narrative of the “One China” Principle as embedded in UN Resolution 2758 to call into question the legitimacy of longstanding US policy on Taiwan—including the Taiwan Relations Act, which is US law.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, United Nations, and International Community
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and United States of America

546. Designing Ukraine’s Recovery in the Spirit of the Marshall Plan

Author:: Ronja Ganster, Jacob Kirkegaard, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, and Bruce Stokes
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The Marshall Plan is a source of inspiration and a fountain of hope for Ukraine’s recovery; evoking it is a marker of ambition. Yet, it cannot be a template for the international aspiration to help rebuild the country. A plan for Ukraine needs to take a 21st century shape. In the late 1940s, there was one hegemon and a set of newly built institutions to aid more than a dozen ailing current and future allies. Today, many countries are needed to help one. This necessitates utilizing and adapting existing aid mechanisms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Recovery, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

547. A Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine

Author:: Heather Conley
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Can one of the most successful US foreign policy initiatives in the 20th century—the Marshall Plan—be replicated in the 21st century—a modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine? The unequivocal answer to this question is “yes,” but it is essential to draw upon historical and inspirational lessons from the Marshall Plan to ensure the reconstruction and long-term economic recovery of Ukraine succeeds.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Recovery, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Defense Cooperation, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

548. Education, Training and Capacity Building in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2021: Multilateral and Bilateral Ambitions Twenty Years On

Author:: Kenneth King
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: The latest Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place in Dakar, Senegal in November 2021. Among the huge range of pledges and agreements, one of the most extensive was capacity building through scholarships, targeted training and people-to-people exchanges. In this Occasional Paper, Kenneth King analyses China’s pledges not just in the sphere of formal education, but across the many different sectors of China’s collaboration with Africa for the next three years. While the impact of COVID-19 can be seen in the reduction of some face-to-face opportunities in China, the extent of what is agreed to be implemented in Africa remains significant. Though these ambitious promises are agreed multilaterally with the whole of Africa, they are delivered bilaterally across the continent in more than fifty different country settings, reflecting how the Africa-China relationship remains strong after two decades of growing engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Education, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Training, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:: Africa and China

549. Winter is Coming: The Baltics and The Russia-Ukraine War

Author:: Leon Hartwell, Agnė Rakštytė, Julia Ryng, and Ēriks Kristiāns Selga
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In this LSE IDEAS Special Report, the authors focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the Baltics. The report highlights both collective and country-level impacts and responses to the conflict. It is argued that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the top supporters of Ukraine, not merely in terms of military aid, but also with regards to providing substantial diplomatic and humanitarian support during Ukraine’s darkest hour since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Moreover, it is argued that this literal and metaphorical winter will be a key challenge, not only for Ukraine, but also for the Baltics. Given how closely the fate of Ukraine is intertwined with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the manner in which the Baltics and NATO respond to the winter could significantly influence the Russia-Ukraine war. A key strategic priority for the Baltics and NATO should be to promote resilience of everything from defense to energy security. Accordingly, the Report concludes with a variety of key policy recommendations aimed at the Baltics, EU and NATO.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States

550. The Inflation Weapon: How American Sanctions Harm Iranian Households

Author:: Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:: This study examines the humanitarian harms of U.S. sanctions on Iranian citizens by focusing on their principal economic impact—high rates of inflation. Although nonexperimental, the study draws upon various data to present a cohesive, if not comprehensive, narrative of the economic shocks that followed the imposition of U.S. sanctions in 2012 and 2018.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, and Inflation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

551. On the Horizon Vol. 4: A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation of Nuclear Professionals

Author:: Reja Younis
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2021 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates such as the future of arms control and deterrence, emerging technologies, SSBN vulnerability, public opinion, cyber norms, and the role of regional dynamics including China and India in nuclear security.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

552. The Department of Defense Contributions to Pandemic Response

Author:: Tom Cullison and J. Stephen Morrison
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Department of Defense (DOD) should be systematically incorporated into any evolving U.S. government vision on international health security. A process of strategic planning that encompasses a spectrum of valuable DOD contributions to contain the global Covid-19 pandemic should begin right away. DOD has broad capabilities that have consistently proven their high value in addressing the current Covid-19 pandemic and other historical disease outbreaks, in support of the U.S. civilian-led response. The knowledge and experience gained in crisis response at home and overseas contribute to military readiness and improved coordination of all actors involved in preventing, detecting, and responding to infectious disease events. This report draws from months of deliberations organized by the CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security’s DOD Working Group. It lays out four concrete and pragmatic recommendations to strengthen DOD’s contributions overseas in advancing U.S. global health security interests
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

553. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and Digital Trade in Southeast Asia

Author:: Andreyka Natalegawa and Gregory B. Poling
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In October 2021, the Biden administration announced the development of an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with partner nations to “define our shared objectives around trade facilitation, standards for the digital economy and technology, supply chain resiliency, decarbonization and clean energy, infrastructure, worker standards, and other areas of shared interest.” Details on the framework are still being worked out, but it now seems that those six areas of focus have been distilled into four negotiating “pillars.” Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said in early February that these would include “fair and resilient trade, supply chain resilience, infrastructure and decarbonization, and tax and anticorruption.” The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will likely lead negotiations on the first, while it appears that the Commerce Department will take the lead on the other three. The details of each pillar will be worked out in the months ahead, but the Biden administration is certain to face challenges and trade-offs across each, given the diversity of economies and political constraints across the region. USTR has said the trade pillar will be “high-ambition” and include binding commitments. But this will be complicated by the fact that the administration plans to roll out the IPEF through executive action rather than as a traditional trade deal requiring congressional approval. This pathway will help the framework sidestep political obstacles that agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership faced before Congress, but it also means that the administration cannot offer increased market access or any other concessions that would require changes to U.S. law. Moreover, moving forward with the IPEF through executive action has led to concerns among partners that the framework could be vulnerable to U.S. domestic politics or that a future administration may well roll back or abandon the framework. Given these self-imposed constraints, the administration will face headwinds trying to convince countries to sign on to high-standard provisions on digital trade, labor, and environmental standards that might run counter to their perceived short-term political or economic interests. One possible solution would have been to make the involvement in the other three pillars, where there are likely to be more tangible benefits for other countries, contingent on an agreement in the trade pillar. But that would run counter to the desire to get as many countries on board as possible. So, the administration has instead indicated that countries will be invited to engage in each pillar a la carte. And while like-mindedness in and of itself does not immediately guarantee their support for the IPEF, the likely result is that only Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and perhaps South Korea—the most developed economies which already share U.S. standards on digital trade, environment, and labor—will engage with USTR on the trade pillar. But a wider array of economies will likely join the talks with the Commerce Department on the other three.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Digital Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

554. Russia Futures: Three Trajectories

Author:: Cyrus Newlin and Andrew Lohsen
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Beginning in 2018, the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS initiated a research project to explore scenarios related to Russia’s future development and to consider the transatlantic implications of each scenario. The project, which was generously funded by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, was intended to provide policymakers with an understanding of how Russia’s domestic political situation, economic outlook, military activities, and foreign policy might evolve in response to modern-day challenges including climate change, growing competition in the Arctic, and the fraught relationship between China and the collective West. Based on original research and workshops involving U.S., Norwegian, and European experts, CSIS identified three potential scenarios for Russia’s future development. The first scenario envisioned a path of continuity, in which Russian leaders strove to maintain the status quo. The second scenario foresaw a trend of risk reduction in the Kremlin’s decisionmaking that led to a partial normalization of relations with the West. The third scenario considered a darker future, in which Russian leaders accepted a higher degree of risk to manage mounting problems at home and abroad, leading to sustained confrontation with the West and the further detachment of the Russian government from its people. These scenarios were being prepared for publication when Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a renewed invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and ushered in a period of deep uncertainty for European and global affairs. Almost immediately, Russia’s act of aggression turned the country into a global pariah, triggering international sanctions far beyond the Kremlin’s expectations and consolidating transatlantic unity to an extent that was difficult to imagine in the tense months immediately preceding the invasion. As orthodoxies have been challenged and expectations reconsidered, contingencies that were thought impossible—from embargoes of Russian hydrocarbons to the potential use of nuclear weapons by the Kremlin—are starting to feature into conversations among policymakers and analysts.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

555. Reducing Methane Emissions from Global Gas

Author:: Ben Cahill
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cutting methane emissions from oil and gas will help slow the pace of global warming, and methane is firmly on the international climate agenda. But how will progress on methane rules and regulations spread beyond Europe and North America, especially to regions where state utilities and national oil companies (NOCs) play a prominent role? And how can global gas trade—especially the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector—evolve in ways that lower methane emissions? This report outlines recent global, national, and sub-national efforts to curtail methane emissions from oil and gas. It analyzes how demand for cleaner, or “differentiated,” gas might develop, delving into the drivers for buyers and others in the gas ecosystem. It concludes with policy recommendations and suggested engagement strategies with global gas players.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

556. Securing Medical Supply Chains with Trusted Trade Partners

Author:: Meredith Broadbent
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill and in the Biden administration regarding excessive dependence on Chinese manufacturing and production. An extension of this is that diversification of supply chains for certain medical products will make U.S. citizens more secure in fighting future infectious diseases. The highly disrupted international economic environment, reeling from supply and demand dislocations unleashed by the pandemic, U.S.-China trade conflicts, and war in Eastern Europe, is prompting certain countries in the Western Hemisphere to seize the occasion to aggressively market themselves as attractive hosts for foreign direct investment looking to move closer to the U.S. market. It is an opportune time for the United States to shape some of the larger forces of global economic disruption, including the movement of investment and production capital. It is time to forge enhanced trade links and diversified supply chains with friends and allies to promote health security, stronger economic and diplomatic engagement, commitments to exchange of data on production, and best practices in fighting disease. This paper breaks down CSIS’s analyses on the capacity for nearshoring in Canada, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Manufacturing, Medicine, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

557. The Caribbean in the Crossfire Between Covid-19, Narcotics, China, and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Caribbean is strategically vital as the southeast maritime approach to the United States. It is a key hub and transit area for commercial logistics serving the eastern coast of the United States as well as the Atlantic side of Central and South America. The region is connected to the United States through ties of commerce, geography, and family. Not only is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico situated centrally in the Caribbean between the Dominican Republic and the Leeward Antilles islands, but significant diasporas of Cubans, Jamaicans, Dominicans, Haitians, and others are found in U.S. communities, from South Florida to New York and New Jersey and beyond. The United States relies on good governance in the Caribbean and partnership on a range of national security issues, including the entry of illegal narcotics (principally moving north from Colombia and Venezuela) and other contraband goods. Even more importantly, the Caribbean touches—or is proximate to—a substantial number of important U.S. ports and military facilities, such as Jacksonville, Florida; Savannah and Kings Bay, Georgia; Charleston, South Carolina; and Norfolk, Virginia. Not only are these facilities critical to U.S. international maritime commerce, but military facilities in some of those areas play important roles in the deployment and sustainment of forces in a range of potential conflicts, be they in Africa, Europe, or Asia. Indeed, during the wars of the previous century, German submarines sought to operate in or near the Caribbean in order to put U.S. facilities and ship convoys at risk.
Topic:: Security, Narcotics Trafficking, Military Intervention, Drugs, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America, Caribbean, and North America

558. Strategic Competition in the Financial Gray Zone

Author:: Heather A Conley, James Andrew Lewis, Eugenia Lostri, and Donatienne Ruy
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the past 10 years, the U.S. government has slowly reoriented its foreign and security policy from the fight against global terrorism toward strategic competition with Russia and China. This reorientation has been accompanied by a new examination of how strategic competition will impact the integrity and future stability of the U.S. economy and financial system. One of the most important elements of strategic competition is sub-threshold warfare (also called asymmetric, hybrid, or gray zone warfare), wherein strategic competitors seek to shape the geostrategic environment in their favor, from information operations to economic warfare—which includes such tools as illicit finance and strategic corruption. Strategic competitors present a clear economic and financial threat to the United States when they operate in the emerging financial gray zone, in which malign actors can take advantage of the U.S. financial system to further their aims and disarm the country internally. The U.S. government, along with its allies, has only begun to acknowledge the sweeping nature of the financial gray zone and to reposition itself to compete within it. Because adversaries exploit the seams between the internal and external policies and authorities, Washington must have greater insights into a complex operating system and better integrate data across the many relevant agencies—in a way, connecting the financial dots. As it develops this comprehensive picture, the U.S. government should develop stronger defensive and offensive policy tools to counter this emerging threat.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

559. Equity and Diversity in the Nation's Cyber Workforce: Policy Recommendations for Addressing Data Gaps

Author:: Irving Lachow
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: U.S.-based businesses and government agencies face a shortage of between 350,000 and 600,000 cybersecurity professionals, and 56 percent of companies believe that their staffing shortfalls put them at moderate or extreme risk. Focusing on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) can help organizations address that shortage by increasing the pool of available talent. Beyond the social good that comes with successful implementation of DEI policies, a 2018 McKinsey & Company report notes that organizations can also realize a positive impact on growth and performance. This is due to improved problem solving and idea generation: “Diverse teams have been shown to be more likely to radically innovate and anticipate shifts in consumer needs and consumption patterns—helping their companies to gain a competitive edge.” These benefits carry over to the cybersecurity realm. A diverse workforce can contribute to a better understanding of user behavior and the ever-evolving threat landscape. Additionally, diverse representation can help organizations identify and address implicit biases that may be impacting their ability to hire and retain talent, develop new products and services, and understand market demand across a broader demographic base. MITRE recently conducted a study, funded by the Hewlett Foundation, that examined the current state of data on the diversity of the nation’s cyber workforce. The results of that study point to a data gap that needs to be addressed
Topic:: Labor Issues, Diversity, Labor Market, Cyberspace, and Equity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

560. Multilateral Trade Arrangements and Climate Provisions

Author:: Emily Benson, Sparsha Janardhan, and William Alan Reinsch
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This new paper from the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business assesses sectoral standards bodies, evaluates environmental provisions in trade agreements, and explores opportunities for addressing climate concerns in newer trade arrangements, such as the recent announcement to negotiate a deal on green steel and aluminum between the European Union and the United States. As this paper seeks to demonstrate, binding agreements with clear enforcement mechanisms are best suited for ensuring that parties meet their climate change obligations as outlined in various bilateral or multilateral agreements. Since concluding agreements that are both binding and have clear enforcement capabilities are not always possible or politically desirable, pursuing a mixed approach—one based on best practices from a diverse set of trade architectures—may be the most viable approach that produces the most tangible outcomes. This paper evaluates climate provisions in trade architectures and makes recommendations for including climate provisions, including sectoral standards, in trade arrangements in a way that encourages increased multilateral collaboration in a WTO-compliant manner.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

561. CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues

Author:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), have convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past 13 years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues. By identifying areas of consensus, the group seeks to improve collaboration and cooperation among the three nations across a range of challenging nuclear policy concerns. The majority of the experts are former U.S., UK, and French senior officials; the others are well-known academics in the field. Since the Dialogues’ inception, currently serving senior officials from all three governments have also routinely participated in the discussions. The United States, the United Kingdom, and France hold common values and principles directed toward a shared purpose of sustaining global peace and security, as well as an understanding of their respective roles as responsible stewards of the nuclear order. While each of the three nations has unique perspectives and policies regarding nuclear issues and the nature of today’s security environment, as the three nuclear weapons states in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance, they play a unique and enduring role in the stewardship of international alliances and partnerships, especially in matters of nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation and arms control. In 2021, the group’s discussion addressed a range of growing challenges in the international security environment and beyond, prompting the group’s Track 2 participants to issue this statement reflecting their consensus after two rounds of meetings (one virtual and one in person). Moreover, recent events in Ukraine, including Russia’s violent cross-border aggression, endangerment of nuclear power sites, and blatant nuclear saber-rattling drive home the inescapable risks of war that occurs under a nuclear shadow and the enduring importance of close collaboration and solidarity of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states and NATO alliance members. All signatories agree to this statement in their personal capacities, which may not represent the views of their respective organizations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe

562. Defense Acquisition Trends 2021

Author:: Gregory Sanders, Won Joon Jang, and Alexander Holderness
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Defense Acquisition Trends 2021 is the latest in an annual series of reports examining trends in what the DoD is buying, how the DoD is buying it, and from whom the DoD is buying using data from the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS). This report analyzes the current state of affairs in defense acquisition by combining detailed policy and data analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of the current and future outlook for defense acquisition. It provides critical insights into understanding the current trends in the defense-industrial base and the implications of those trends on acquisition policy.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Military Strategy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

563. The Two Technospheres Western-Chinese Technology Decoupling: Implications for Cybersecurity

Author:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Decoupling of digital innovation, systems, and data flows between Western nations and China is a growing global issue with high potential to destabilize the digital world. Through a series of workshops and an analysis of existing efforts, the Multilateral Cyber Action Committee (MCAC) has provided an assessment on the current status of technology decoupling and the growing divergence of the Western and Chinese technospheres. The report provides a set of recommendations for action to mitigate the growing cybersecurity risks posed by technology decoupling.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and North America

564. Beyond Foreign Military Sales: Opportunities to Enhance Japan-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation

Author:: Takashi Kodaira
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The security environment in the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly severe due to China’s growing military power. Further cooperation between the Japanese and U.S. defense industries will strengthen deterrence, although Japan’s defense industry is currently in a difficult situation, with domestic procurement stagnating. For Japan to fully take advantage of its role in the U.S.-Japan alliance, it must maintain and strengthen the defense industry through defense industrial cooperation with the United States. This report examines trend lines in Japan’s defense industrial strategy and potential avenues for bilateral cooperation to enhance capabilities critical to managing complex security challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Military Strategy, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

565. A Shared Responsibility: Public-Private Cooperation for Cybersecurity

Author:: Eugenia Lostri, James Andrew Lewis, and Georgia Wood
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Cybersecurity is a priority for Congress and for the Biden administration as online crime and espionage reach unparalleled heights. To improve cybersecurity in federal agencies and in critical infrastructure, the administration has built a strong team, elevated the positions of White House officials dealing with the issue, and released a series of policy directives. In Congress, 157 pieces of legislation addressing cybersecurity were introduced during 2021, with proposals ranging from capacity building and workforce development to updating federal policy. Crime and espionage have made cybersecurity a national priority, and action on cybersecurity is more likely than ever in 2022. CSIS convened two private roundtables with senior government officials and senior information security executives from major enterprises in a range of U.S. industry sectors. The goals of the roundtables were to identify common challenges, discuss best practices, and outline avenues for cooperation.
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Governance, Cybersecurity, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

566. Convergence and Divergence: Multilateral Trade and Climate Agendas

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If the international community wants to make meaningful progress ahead of the 2030 deadline—which critics argue is still too late to avert global catastrophe—major global players should work together to reduce emissions at home and abroad. This paper discusses the politics of climate policy in the United States and how it is influenced by relationships with the European Union and China. It analyzes these international relationships through specific policies, namely subsidies, and assesses their reduction or removal in some cases and their reallocations in others. It also evaluates the politics and policy implications of carbon border adjustments, including their compliance with existing WTO rules. These trade policies allude to domestic industrial policies and how they can be adjusted to better combat climate change while complying with existing trade rules. In outlining policy options for the United States’ trade agenda, including how the European Union and China factor into these options, the paper assesses the probability that certain climate policies will ultimately materialize. The paper argues that unilateralism is insufficient and counterproductive in both trade and climate and that only through multilateral, legally compliant policy convergence can countries stave off environmental and economic collapse.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Multilateral Relations, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

567. Measuring Congressional Impact on Defense Acquisition Funding

Author:: Seamus P. Daniels and Todd Harrison
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Congress exercises its oversight authority on the executive branch’s defense policy via the appropriations process and can choose to match, modify, or eliminate the Department of Defense’s (DoD) requested funding levels for acquisition programs primarily funded by the procurement and research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) accounts. Congress’s decisions in this process can have a significant impact on the executive branch’s defense plans by making adjustments to acquisition projects’ program of record. This in turn can force DoD program management teams to alter schedules and contracting actions, causing second-order effects on private sector partners in the acquisition process. To measure Congress’s impact on defense acquisition funding, this study compares the actual funding level for procurement and RDT&E accounts with the original level proposed in the administration’s budget request and identifies patterns in which accounts are regularly adjusted by Congress. It assesses procurement and RDT&E accounts between fiscal year (FY) 2001 and FY 2020 and conducts data cuts of acquisition funding at the account, category, military department, and budget activity levels. This analysis ultimately aims to inform defense planners, acquisition officials and program managers, and industry partners of trends in congressional appropriations for defense so they can better anticipate Congress’s impact on defense acquisition funding.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Legislation, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

568. How Will a Revival of the JCPOA Affect Regional Politics and Iranian Militias?

Author:: Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The news about the imminent revival of the nuclear deal between the United States and Iran is heightening concerns, especially across the Middle East. The deal would involve the lifting of economic sanctions, resulting in Iran enjoying a significant flow of income. This analysis attempts to address two important questions: First, free of the U.S. sanctions, will Iran indeed decide to increase its regional influence by funding its regional militias? And second, how will Iran’s strategic direction and regional politics change in the near future? This analysis reveals that the geostrategic threats currently facing Iran as a result of its adopted hostile regional policy outweigh the gains from continuing in its current trajectory. In general, despite the long history of conflict, dispute, and mistrust, the region seems to be gearing toward an era of de-escalation. For the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to justify its continued presence, there is a need for its involvement in continuous conflicts, especially since it currently controls more than two-thirds of the Iranian economy. However, this buckling economy itself is now in dire need of renewal and revival to continue Iran’s ability to prop up the regime and all its components.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

569. U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022: Peering into the Abyss

Author:: Mark F. Cancian
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: CSIS senior adviser Mark Cancian annually produces a series of white papers on U.S. military forces, including their composition, new initiatives, long-term trends, and challenges. This report is a compilation of these papers. It takes a deep look at each military service, as well as special operations forces, DOD civilians, and contractors in the FY 2022 budget. This report also discusses the debate about legacy equipment, the interaction of the budget and force size, and the decline in force size that the services face with retiring older systems without adequate replacements.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Defense Industry, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

570. Securing Intellectual Property for Innovation and National Security

Author:: Sujai Shivakumar
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States is engaged in a global competition for innovation, with critical implications for the nation’s continued technological leadership, competitiveness, and security. To win, the United States will need to leverage its advantages at home, including its robust intellectual property (IP) rights system and the innovative zeal of its entrepreneurs. It should also look abroad—setting the pace for scientific cooperation with allies and strategic partners, as well as developing shared international technical standards through the contributions of experts from around the globe. Most pressingly, the United States should not adopt policies that weaken protection of U.S.-owned patents—which would both disincentivize innovation in the United States and support Chinese efforts to dominate critical standards and other advanced technologies. Yet a recent proposal of the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) does just that. Launched as a consultation, its Draft Policy Statement on Licensing Negotiations and Remedies for Standards-Essential Patents Subject to F/RAND Commitments is promoted as an effort to encourage good-faith licensing negotiations and to address the scope of remedies available to patent owners who have agreed to license their essential technologies on fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (F/RAND) terms. While this draft policy seems like an innocuous administrative change, it has the potential to do significant damage to the United States’ innovation engine and, by extension, to its national security.
Topic:: Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

571. Decarbonizing Aluminum: Rolling Out a More Sustainable Sector

Author:: William Alan Reinsch and Emily Benson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the effects of climate change intensify, countries and industries alike are seeking new ways to decarbonize to meet emissions targets, avoid carbon border tariffs, and reduce energy costs. Today, energy use in industry is the number one contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, decarbonization of heavy industry would have a direct and immediate impact on reducing GHG emissions and slowing climate change. Aluminum is the second most used metal in the world. Its applications are numerous and fundamental, from electrical transmission to defense and construction. Aluminum is also a key input in other goods that help reduce emissions, such as electric vehicles and energy-efficient buildings, meaning that decarbonizing aluminum can help industries that are playing a critical role in global climate efforts. This paper evaluates global progress on sectoral emissions reductions and assesses policies governments can pursue to accelerate decarbonization of the aluminum sector. The aluminum industry consists of three component segments: upstream aluminum, downstream aluminum, and recycled aluminum. The upstream aluminum sector is responsible for the sourcing of raw material components from mined bauxite that is then refined into alumina and smelted into aluminum. Aluminum production is usually accomplished in two phases. In the first stage, bauxite ore is refined to obtain aluminum oxide through the Bayer process. The Hall-Heroult process of smelting the aluminum oxide to release pure aluminum comprises the second stage. Upstream production of aluminum involves the mining of bauxite and refining it into alumina. The downstream segment refers to the production of semi-fabricated aluminum products and their use in a wide range of sectors, from manufacturing and automobiles to construction and consumer products. Aluminum not only offers durability, but also is lightweight and infinitely recyclable, meaning it has clear environmental benefits compared to other similar inputs, such as steel or plastic. While aluminum does offer some environmental benefits, producing it is carbon intensive. Aluminum production processes have changed very little since the 1800s, and many countries continue to rely on coal to produce the electricity required for aluminum production. Globally, the aluminum sector contributes roughly 2 percent of GHG emissions—equivalent to about 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Yet demand for aluminum is expected to increase by 50 to 80 percent by 2050. In 2019, the aluminum industry consumed 6 percent of all global coal-fired electricity, exceeding the total amount of coal-fired electricity generated in Europe. That same year, coal-fired electricity used in aluminum electrolysis produced 636 million tons of C02 emissions, or 58 percent of the sector’s carbon footprint. On average, 72 percent of GHG emissions from primary production of aluminum are from electricity, meaning greater use of renewable energy in aluminum production could significantly decrease the sector’s carbon output. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global CO2 emissions need to decrease by 45 percent by 2030 in order to keep global warming below the 1.5 degree threshold. By accelerating the deployment of renewables and designing policies that encourage and support the decarbonization of heavy industry, the private and public sectors can play key roles in helping to reduce carbon emissions, while also continuing to grow the global economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

572. The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith

Author:: Heather A Conley and Donatienne Ruy
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For six years, the Kremlin Playbook series has studied Russia’s malign influence efforts in Europe, primarily through the economic lens. This research showed the Kremlin has developed a pattern of malign economic influence in Europe through the cultivation of “an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making.” The aim is to weaken democratic systems from within, using existing and creating new societal divides. But what if Russia, for its own malign purposes, were to seek to influence religious or traditional views? The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith aims to protect these beliefs by exposing how Russian malign influence works in this particularly challenging and very personal dimension—a new strategic seam—to ensure citizens do not unwittingly become part of an influence operation. The instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs is a relatively recent and particularly pernicious front of the Kremlin’s influence efforts in Europe and elsewhere. This study investigates these dynamics in four case study countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Georgia, and Greece. This report explores how the United States and its European allies can protect the religious beliefs and values of their citizens from malign influence at a time when transatlantic societies are grappling with the speed of societal change. Societal anxiety and fear related to these rapid economic, demographic, and generational shifts—and the subsequent politics and political figures that seek to capitalize on them—have fueled societal divisions around the so-called cultural wars in Western societies. Through two main channels, the Orthodox world and the traditional values ecosystem, the Kremlin has taken advantage of these fears to accentuate societal wedges in Europe and Eurasia.
Topic:: Economics, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Influence
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

573. Creating Accountability for Global Cyber Norms

Author:: James A. Lewis
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The year 2021 saw all UN member states agree in the Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on a framework for responsible state behavior in cyberspace, based on norms developed in the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) in 2015.1 The OEWG formalized global agreement on the 2015 norms. This consensus agreement means that the framework for responsible state behavior is now politically binding for all member states. Global agreement on the obligations for responsible state behavior is a substantial step forward in building international cybersecurity in a rules-based environment. Unfortunately, international experience since 2015 has shown that agreement on norms, even when politically binding, is by itself not enough to ensure their observation or create stability in cyberspace. This has shifted discussion from what norms are needed to how to build accountability and what to do when norms are ignored. While the norms agreed to by all member states will ultimately reinforce international stability, to make progress, it will be necessary to develop a collective diplomatic strategy to improve the observation of norms and increase accountability when they are ignored. A strategy of sustained engagement and the imposition of consequences is necessary for norms to have effect. Our assumption is that accountability for malicious cyber actions can only be strengthened if there are consequences for a state’s decision not to observe norms. If nothing else, a failure to take action in response to transgressions seems to only encourage opponents. An immediate task is to define the conditions for collective action. There has been an initial and informal agreement among like-minded democratic nations that accountability requires the imposition of consequences for a failure to observe norms, but several issues must be addressed. These include agreement on standards for attribution of the source of a malicious action and agreement on a proportional, lawful, and effective response. A collective approach is essential if efforts to create accountability are to succeed, and any response to a cyber incident will require political heft and sustained engagement.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Cybersecurity, Accountability, Transparency, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

574. Data Protection or Data Utility?

Author:: Alexander Kersten and Issac A. Robinson
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Despite the economic upheaval wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States is now poised to enter a new period of productivity growth with the widespread deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. And just as past eras’ technologies have been driven entirely by the consumption of resources such as steam, coal, oil, and natural gas, this AI-driven period will rely on data. Yet, while this data-driven economic growth model has proven benefits to both individuals and firms, it also raises serious concerns over individuals’ data privacy. A key challenge in this regard is to ensure that data is handled securely and that the privacy of American citizens is protected. Because of the regard paid to data protection and privacy over the past decade, the proliferation of digitization has made privacy policy a part of innovation policy. However, until now, policymakers have viewed data use and data protection as trade-offs, with some nations adopting strict control of data flows. These measures have not been effective in practice; strict curbs have stifled innovation while doing relatively little to protect privacy. An alternative is to deploy promising cryptographic software solutions that can enhance privacy while still allowing access to data. This solution not only unlocks the commercial potential of data for use by firms, law enforcement, nonprofits, and researchers but also protects individuals’ privacy. Realizing the benefits of this win-win solution will require further development and widespread adoption of emerging cryptographic software solutions.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Cyberspace, and Encryption
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

575. 475,106 Mistakes: The Cost of Erroneous Parking Tickets

Author:: Kasey Henricks
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: In this report we analyze nearly 3.6 million parking tickets issued in Chicago between August 2012 and May 2018 where complying with parking restrictions depended on time, weather, and location restrictions and identified that more than one in eight tickets (13.2%) were issued in error. Erroneous tickets served as a $35.5 million dividend for the City of Chicago during the six years the analysis covered. The 475,106 erroneous tickets we identified in this period generated more than $27.5 million in revenue. Furthermore, only 7% of tickets written under false pretenses are contested, and nine of the 10 community areas with the lowest appeal rates are majority Latinx. More than 20% of inaccurate tickets are subject to late penalties and majority Black community areas represent the 20 community areas with the highest percentage of late penalties tied to flawed tickets. While paying a ticket or taking the time to contest it may be minor inconveniences for some, these erroneous parking tickets amplify the vulnerability of those already vulnerable.
Topic:: Minorities, Discrimination, Police, Transportation, and Cars
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

576. Chicago's Racial Wealth Gap: Legacies of the Past, Challenges in the Present, Uncertain Futures

Author:: Fructoso M. Basaldua Jr., Maximilian Cuddy, Amanda E. Lewis, and Ivan Arenas
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:: By the time they reach adulthood, Black and Latinx children born to middle income families in Chicago are far less likely than White children from families with the same income to remain in the middle class or to attain a college degree. These patterns in downward mobility among middle class Black and Latinx Chicagoans are much worse than national averages, raising important questions about the future of Black and Latinx communities in Chicago. In this report, we argue that we need an in-depth understanding of wealth inequality to comprehend why middle class families in Chicago seem to be on such different trajectories. The report centers the life experiences of middle class Black, Latinx, and White families to demonstrate that there is much work to be done to support our middle class families, many of whom are contending today not just with the legacies of past inequities, but also with the ongoing failures of public policy to address basic needs.
Topic:: Education, Children, Inequality, Class, Economic Inequality, and Middle Class
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

577. Far-Right Violence and the American Midterm Elections: Early Warning Signs to Monitor Ahead of the Vote

Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: A narrow focus on aggregate trends in political violence can obscure important new patterns and warning signs. While the total number of political violence events in the United States declined in 2021 after far-right groups stormed the Capitol at the start of the year, trends since then reflect an ongoing evolution in anti-democratic mobilization on the right — not the aftermath of its high-water mark. Many of the same far-right groups and networks involved in the Capitol attack have adapted their activity to fit the new environment. These adaptations have manifested in multiple ways: the landscape of actors has become more defined; demonstration engagement has shifted, with a focus on protests that allow for the co-option of new supporters; some actors, like the Proud Boys, have increased their use of violence; armed protests have proliferated, particularly at legislative facilities; contentious counter-demonstration trends have intensified; offline propaganda and vigilantism is on the rise, especially motivated by white supremacy and white nationalism; and preparatory actions have surged, including recruitment drives and training exercises. ACLED data indicate that political violence in the United States, and specifically violence involving far-right militias and militant social movements, typically manifests in peaks and lulls. Against this backdrop, the recent decline in aggregate events should not be taken as a sign that the threat of violence has abated. On the contrary, current trends indicate that it may only represent a relative calm before the next storm. The United States faces many latent risks, and a wide range of factors that can contribute to and elevate these risks — from the ascendance of extremist protest drivers like white supremacy, to the increased rate of armed demonstrations at statehouses, to a rise in militia training and recruitment campaigns — are intensifying. Monitoring these factors, and these groups, will be critical for detecting emerging threats, particularly in the lead-up to potential flashpoint events, such as this year’s midterm elections.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Far Right
Political Geography:: United States

578. Europe and the Geopolitics of 5G Walking a Technological Tightrope

Author:: Julien Nocetti
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The acute Sino-American tensions which started in 2018 have been coupled with controversies around 5G technology, exemplified by the spotlight placed on Chinese equipment manufacturer Huawei and the security risks associated with its use. For Europe, the 5G challenge at the international level is drawing a very complex landscape. Just like artificial intelligence, 5G materializes a very strong geopolitical sensitivity around the control of critical technologies. 5G is indeed critical because of its expected quasi-ubiquitous use, the gradual shift towards network technologies based entirely on software, and the potential strengthening of already dominant players (including digital platforms via cloud services). The United States-China rivalry is limiting the European Union’s room for action, against a backdrop of security considerations and low levels of investment. The continent’s various players (the European Commission, the main European powers, private players such as Nokia and Ericsson) have not adopted a uniform stance, reflecting an entanglement of technological dependencies on China and the United States. Meanwhile, the issue of semiconductors, symbolizing both the technological decline and the renewal of the EU’s ambitions, is fully integrated into the development of 5G. These chips constitute the "muscle" of the system and trigger new geo-economic challenges in which Europe must still find its place.
Topic:: European Union, Internet, 5G, Telecommunications, and Digital Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

579. Rewinding the Clock? US-Russia Relations in the Biden Era

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis in Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022 has returned US-Russia relations to center stage. Faced with the prospect of a new Russian military intervention, US President Joe Biden has re-engaged with Vladimir Putin in a manner reminiscent of the diplomacy of the superpower era. But this latest American attempt at accommodation raises more questions than answers. In the intervening three decades the world has changed out of all recognition, the international influence of the US-Russia relationship is much diminished, and their cooperation has sunk to historic lows. Can Washington and Moscow defy gravity and achieve some level of pragmatic engagement? There is good reason for skepticism. Neither side is truly invested in cooperation, but instrumentalizes it to other purposes. The Biden administration hopes to neutralize Russia in order to focus on the all-encompassing challenge of China. The Kremlin looks to undermine American influence as part of its project of promoting Russia as an independent global power. These goals are essentially irreconcilable. Looking ahead, the real question is not whether the United States and Russia can recalibrate their relationship to new “normal”, but whether they can avoid confrontation in an increasingly fluid and disorderly world.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

580. French Engagement in the Western Balkans: Boosting Strategic, Political, Economic, and Societal Cooperation

Author:: Florent Marciacq and Romain Le Quiniou
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: After years of lower interest, France has signaled its ambition to re-engage in the Western Balkans. It is not starting from scratch. Historical affinities with the countries of the region abound, in culture, sciences, politics, and economy. But shifting priorities in the past decades have eroded French presence in the region. To regain a foothold in this important part of Europe, France has taken a series of initiatives aimed at boosting its engagement. In 2016, it hosted the Berlin Process summit; in 2017, it launched with Germany an initiative to coordinate the drive against firearms trafficking in the Western Balkans; in 2018, it expanded the intervention mandate of the French Development Agency (AFD) to all Western Balkans countries and adopted a national Strategy for the Western Balkans; in 2020, after a two-year stalemate, it withdrew its reservations against the opening of accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, while sketching the contours of the revised enlargement methodology. Drawing from a series of consultations in the region and structured cooperation with partner think-tanks, this policy paper is conceived as an independent, expert contribution to French efforts at re-engaging with the Western Balkans. It explores perceptions of French re-engagement in the region and reflects the potential of the 2019 Strategy for the Western Balkans in light of the forthcoming French Presidency of the European Council and in the context of the grands débats on the future of Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Multilateralism, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Balkans

581. Governing Cities in Africa. A Panorama of Challenges and Perspectives

Author:: Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: By 2050, about 60% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will live in urban areas. The governance of the rapid growth of capital and intermediary cities in Africa is one of the priorities of the international development agenda. Between 2020 and 2050, African cities, and especially secondary cities, have to absorb more than 700 million urban dwellers. Given these projections, urban growth in Africa has become a central concern of the international community, including experts from international organizations, researchers, aid agencies, and the private sector. While expert meetings and research initiatives on the future of cities are accumulating, this study aims to take stock of the debate. First, it provides an overview of the major issues that mostly policy-oriented research on cities in Africa has dealt with since independence. Based on this review, our paper builds on the concept of urban governance to approach the transformation and growth of African cities. Hereby we take into consideration the multiple actors (public, private, civil society, etc.), policy sectors (land, housing, infrastructure, etc.), and scales (local, national, international) that shape the political, economic, and social aspects of urban life. The paper also addresses African cities as part of a broader urban-rural continuum. Second, this study proposes concrete avenues to contribute to ongoing research and technical initiatives on urban governance in Africa. More knowledge and data are needed to inform the debate on urban infrastructure financing and the role of intermediate cities in the broader urbanization process in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that a more detailed comprehension of land tenure systems is fundamental to understanding the challenges of future urban development in Africa.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Urban, Rural, and Cities
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, and Sub-Saharan Africa

582. Convince and Coerce: U.S. Interference in Technology Exchanges Between its Allies and China

Author:: Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The tough-on-China policy adopted by the Trump and Biden administrations has – and will increasingly have – important consequences for Washington’s allies, both on their infrastructure choices (5G, submarine cables...) and on their technological exchanges with China. Indeed, the U.S. objective of slowing down China’s technological development has been translated into multiple policies, primarily targeting China but also – directly or indirectly – U.S. partners. On the one hand, Washington deploys a range of coercive and incentive tools to prevent its allies from adopting certain technologies, supplied by Chinese companies and « untrusted » by American authorities (in terms of cyber, data or infrastructure security). Case studies of U.S. efforts against the deployment of Huawei’s 5G or Hengtong Group’s undersea cables reveal a similar strategy, combining direct diplomatic pressure, a threat awareness campaign, and financial incentives. On the other hand, in line with the United States’ historical use of the extraterritoriality of its law and its position as an economic superpower to influence its allies’ decisions, Washington seeks to restrict transfers of critical technologies from allies to China. As the main manufacturers (along with the United States) of these technologies, American allies are increasingly constrained by these legal and diplomatic restrictions, which target one of their main trading partners and tend to extend beyond strictly military or cutting-edge technologies. For example, in order to limit sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, U.S. authorities are combining changes to the American export control regime with diplomatic efforts (bilaterally and multilaterally) to persuade allies to align their own export policies with those of the United States. While the Biden administration appears to be placing greater emphasis on cooperative and incentive approaches, it seems likely that the multidimensional U.S. strategy serving these two objectives will continue, and even be strengthened. Among allies (and especially in Europe), this trend has raised awareness of the security challenges posed by certain Chinese suppliers, but also of the risks associated with the growing coercive practices of the great powers.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, 5G, Semiconductors, and Submarine Cable
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

583. India–East Africa: A Not So Healthy Relationship?

Author:: Isabelle Saint-Mezard and Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Due to historical as well as geographical reasons, India and East Africa have long been close partners. In the recent period however, and even more so since the early 2000s, these ties have tightened as a result of combined efforts by the government of India and its business community. The presence of communities of Indian origin in several East African countries has also acted as a catalyst. East Africa is perceived as a valuable partner both by Indian authorities and by Indian private companies. Although the two types of Indian players may not explicitly coordinate their actions, their interests dovetail nicely in this particular region. The health sector sticks out as one major sector on which Indian actors focus in East Africa. It provides a striking example of the multilayered complementarity between India and East Africa, on the one hand, and between public and private Indian players’ interests on the other. However, India’s activism in the health sector is not necessarily perceived positively by the East African host countries. Despite some technology transfers and efforts by the Indian actors, be they public or private, to promote capacity-building, East African countries find themselves in a situation of dependence as a result of Indian companies exporting and producing drugs, building hospitals, improving hospital management and Information Technology (IT) infrastructure, or digitalizing healthcare. However, the major point of tension pertains to the promotion of medical tourism. Although offshore healthcare comes with many benefits, it is unlikely to be sustainable for the East African economies in the long run. Moreover, the money spent on medical tourism could arguably be used more usefully to develop local medical facilities and competence. The recent developments in the context of the pandemic have made the associated risk very clear. The challenge in the coming years will be for the two parties to find a way to better balance their relationship and set it on firmer ground – in other words, to make it healthier.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Health, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

584. The Russian-Iran Partnership in a Multipolar World

Author:: Clément Therme
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Iran depends on overlapping security interests; bilaterally, regionally and on the world stage. Tehran has pursued a regional policy program that is largely in line with Russia’s interests, whether these relate to Syria (from 2011), the Caucasus, Central Asia, or Afghanistan (since 1991). This security dimension was already one of the foundations of the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War-period. It has now appeared in regional dealings between Tehran and Moscow. In addition, the decline of US international predominance, which has been apparent since the 2000s, has allowed Russia and Iran to develop a shared ideological discourse in opposition to “Western values”. Beyond this shared ideological basis, Tehran has developed a true “Realpolitik” whereby it relies on Russian foreign policy to relieve US pressure on Iran that is aimed at regime change or, at the very least, a change in the behavior of the Islamic Republic. In other words, in seeking to preserve intact the main ideological tenets of its regime, Tehran has added a new dimension to its relationship with Moscow. Since 1991, this relationship has become a matter of survival for a regime that faces both popular opposition at home and external pressure from Washington: pressure that increased during the Trump administration of 2017-2021.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, and Middle East

585. Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region

Author:: Jean-Louis Lozier
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland. However, this peaceful cooperation is not exempt from strategic rivalries: for some years now, these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented in particular by the United States – which is lagging behind after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022 also carry the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems. Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and North Pole

586. Will Artificial Intelligence Hone North Korea's Cyber “All-Purpose Sword”?

Author:: Scott W. Harold, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jenny Jun, and Diana Myers
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How is the increasing spread of artificial intelligence (AI) likely to shape the cyber capabilities of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK; North Korea) in the coming years? Over the past decade, cyber tools have become an important enabler of the Kim Jong Un regime’s quest to achieve its policy objectives. Today, as a result of sustained investments by Pyongyang, the DPRK has developed an increasingly sophisticated set of cyber capabilities, which it has used to substantial effect against foreign militaries, banks, companies, media outlets, and individuals. While the regime has been able to achieve much through cyberattacks relying on traditional human operators, there are some areas where automating cyberattacks may prove attractive to the North. At the same time, demand for trained cybersecurity professionals usually far outstrips supply, and AI for cyberdefense may be an area where the regime ultimately feels compelled to invest, either to offset human capital shortfalls, or as adversary AI-enabled cyberattacks grow more sophisticated. Is North Korea about to make the leap to AI-enabled cyberattacks or cyber defense? Or will the country’s international isolation impair its ability to pair up AI with its existing cyber capabilities?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

587. Cybersecurity for innovative small and medium enterprises and academia

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer, Melanie J. Teplinsky, and Robert J Butler
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Innovation is fundamental to United States global leadership, critical both for the economy and for national security. Yet the resilience of the US innovation ecosystem against adversary cyber espionage and attack—most specifically from China—has not received the attention required, particularly given the essential innovation roles played by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and by academia. In response to that challenge, this report sets forth a proposal for expert-provided cybersecurity resilient architectures for SMEs and academia that are engaged in the development and operation of key emerging and advanced technologies. Such cybersecurity resilient architectures would be operated by the private sector and funded through the establishment of transferable cybersecurity investment tax credits. The use of such architectures for the protection of emerging and advanced technologies would play a key role in ensuring that the United States maintains its worldwide innovation leadership.
Topic:: Cybersecurity, Innovation, Academia, and Resilience
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

588. The Afghan refugee crisis: How to resurrect the global refugee resettlement coalition

Author:: Rory Stewart
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Six months after the fall of Kabul, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated at an alarming rate. The threat of famine and economic collapse looms over the entire country. Consequently, many Afghans are fleeing both these appalling conditions and the oppressive Taliban that now control the country. However, Afghan asylum seekers will be facing difficult circumstances even after they leave their country. The global resettlement order remains severely atrophied after the refugee crisis of the mid-2010s, leaving it unable to face the challenge in a rise in Afghan refugees or for other future refugee crises. As the humanitarian tragedy in Afghanistan intensifies, a new global refugee resettlement coalition has to be formed to address the escalating refugee crisis. The primary objectives of this report, written by Rory Stewart, Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute and former UK development minister, are to: outline the ways in which states have already attempted to respond to the Afghan refugee crisis; discuss realistic and measured ways to address the refugee crisis without undermining border security; improve transatlantic and global coordination in reinvigorating standards on refugee resettlement across the world. This report outlines how the refugee resettlement coalition can be restructured. Beginning with the United States, United Kingdom, and coalition of likely EU member states (such as France, Germany, Benelux, and the Nordic countries), these countries can resettle approximately 320,000 refugees annually. This would happen if each country committed to taking in 0.05% of their respective populations each year: 33,026 for the United Kingdom, 166,400 for the United States, and 120,000 for the likely coalition of willing EU member states. The report also explains how the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated significantly since the fall of Kabul, why Afghans are leaving their home country in increasing numbers, and why the international community must reinvigorate the global resettlement coalition to address this crisis and future refugee crises.
Topic:: Refugee Crisis, Resettlement, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

589. US-China vaccine diplomacy: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: María Eugenia Brizuela de Ávila, Bosco Marti, Riyad Insanally, and Claudia Trevisan
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: COVID-19 has laid bare the competing strategies and practices of the United States and China to amass further clout in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In many ways, the pandemic is quickly accelerating a regional trend seen over the last decade: China uses its growing economic and diplomatic muscle to provide an alternative to US activities and interests. The implications of diverging COVID-19 responses, notably at the onset of the pandemic’s rise in the region, will reverberate beyond the health sector. What might the differing US and China pandemic approaches portend for future influence in the region? For the United States and China, the pandemic has opened new opportunities to deepen regional ties. Both countries’ assistance eventually centered on vaccine diplomacy, but China was first out of the gates in offering vaccinations beyond its borders. For LAC, its interactions with the United States and China during the pandemic are emblematic of broader trends: China provides an alternative to LAC during crisis moments; and regional leaders use US-Chinese competition to their advantage. Both instances are visible in the region, including in the four geographic areas analyzed in the following pages: Central America, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), Brazil, and Mexico. In each case, distinct US and Chinese engagement at various stages of the pandemic—along with the host countries’ own actions and reactions—have yielded short-term results and some that are likely to persist. In Central America, China provided strategic diplomatic messaging alongside vaccine shipments, but the United States donated more vaccines. In T&T, Chinese vaccines were accompanied by a new loan, and the country’s prime minister applied a pragmatic approach to acquire vaccines from both the United States and China. For Brazil, laboratory-to-laboratory agreements highlighted a different version of vaccine diplomacy: one that occurs at the subnational level. In Mexico, numerous diplomatic exchanges occurred alongside substantial vaccine purchases from US and Chinese manufacturers. Vaccine-related diplomacy also contributes to an evolving discussion about the different ways China and the United States more broadly engage the region—and vice versa. Starting from a low base, Chinese engagement with LAC has focused on and grown significantly in diplomacy, trade, and investment over the last decade. China is either the first- or second-largest trading partner for many countries in the Americas and a top source of foreign direct investment among its allies. Current US strategy in the region similarly reflects a new sense of deploying diplomatic tools to advance hemispheric prosperity, while doing so as part of a broader vision that reflects partnering to address global challenges—from climate change and the instability that sparks migration to shoring up democracy and addressing corruption. Overall, the region’s proximity, shared peoples, history, and borders with the United States provide greater depth and multidimensionality to the relationship. Consequently, vaccine diplomacy represents a greater marginal opportunity for China to broaden and deepen regional ties.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Caribbean, and United States of America

590. Iraq: Implementing a way forward

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: A new report, Iraq: Implementing a Way Forward, authored by Atlantic Council staff and fellows C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi lays out findings and recommendations to assist the Iraqi government and its international partners in improving political, social, economic, and security conditions to enhance national stability, stabilize Iraq’s democratic processes, and promote broad-based, Iraqi-generated economic growth. The report draws on two years of engagement with experts from Iraq, the United States, and Europe through a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue convened from March 2020 through December 2021. Convened by the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung with support from DT Institute, the Dialogue consisted of a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s political, socioeconomic, and security challenges. Dialogue participants included former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Economy, Youth, Legitimacy, Identity, Foreign Assistance, and Resource Management
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

591. Entangling alliances? Europe, the United States, Asia, and the risk of a new 1914

Author:: Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: How has alliance formation and maintenance changed since the Cold War? As Russia invades Ukraine, China threatens Taiwan, Iran harasses Gulf States, and Turkey’s neighbors worry about Ankara’s designs, it is a good time to reassess the validity of alliances for global security. Some believe that traditional military alliances are getting weaker or outmoded, and will increasingly be replaced by looser ad hoc groupings such as the Quad, the defense-alliance trio known as AUKUS, or coalitions for given operations such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, or Libya. However, standing alliances are proliferating (increasing in numbers), widening (welcoming new members), and deepening (reinforcing solidarity and cooperation). The result is a network of interlocking defense relationships, to which an ever-thicker layer of new security groupings and quasi alliances is being added. The emerging system is complex, and policymakers would do well to think through possible future crises to imagine how the various moving parts would end up interacting. They should avoid drawing on the Cold War as a guiding epoch, as it was a comparatively stable and predictable bipolar order. Alliances will also be consistently tested as well, because, as alliances are created or reinforced, adversaries react and probe their limits. Will this expanding network of alliances create more stability or more instability? Does alliance proliferation reduce or increase the risk of war? And if war erupted somewhere, what would be the risks of escalation? The dawning multipolar world, featuring an increasingly dense network of security arrangements, uncomfortably remind us of the years 1912-1914, shortly before the outbreak of World War I. A definitive answer may be impossible to arrive at, but evidence suggests that the current proliferation of alliances is, on balance, more stabilizing to world order than not. The broad set of alliances, suballiances, and security arrangements act as a “safety belt” for world order, rather than as a “conveyor belt” to catastrophe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Instability
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and United States of America

592. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden

593. Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

594. Difficult Debate on an Intellectual Property Protection Waiver to Fight COVID-19

Author:: Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The negotiations currently taking place at the WTO on the suspension of, among others, patent protection for vaccines and medicines against COVID-19, are at a standstill. This creates a risk of widening the rift between developing countries, which mostly support the idea, and some developed countries, which oppose it. It also makes it more difficult to increase the supply of patented items, particularly of vaccines, to an extent undermining other efforts by countries and international organisations to contain the pandemic. It is in the interest of Poland and the EU to overcome this impasse.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, European Union, Vaccine, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

595. Humanitarian Catastrophe in Afghanistan: A Crisis by Choice

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: One of the world’s most serious humanitarian crises is taking place in Afghanistan and it is largely the result of flawed assumptions of Western policy following the Taliban’s seizure of power. The West’s suspension of development aid has led to the collapse of the economy and to hunger for millions of Afghans. Instead of forcing the Taliban to respect human rights, the actions will have the opposite effect—a humanitarian catastrophe, mass migration, and a failed state. The European Union may soon face these effects directly, so it should take steps to resume development cooperation and avert the worst-case scenario.
Topic:: Human Rights, Taliban, Economy, Development Aid, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and South Asia

596. Prospects for the Launch of the Digital Yuan

Author:: Oskar Szydłowski
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Among the digital currency projects developed by major economies, the Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) is the most advanced. After pilot projects in selected Chinese regions, the biggest test was to be at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The spread of the digital yuan will enable the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to expand its digital authoritarianism through increased surveillance of citizens’ finances. It may also increase the Chinese currency’s share of international transactions in the region. The success of the e-CNY should accelerate the ECB’s work on a privacy-preserving digital euro.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Digital Currency, and Yuan
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

597. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus

598. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Eritrea

599. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean

600. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS