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  • Publication Date: 06-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Fundación Alternativas
  • Abstract: Informe en español. Versión pasapáginas aquí.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Publication Date: 06-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Fundación Alternativas
  • Abstract: The 4th Report on the State of the European Union –”Europe at the political crossroads”– is published as a contribution to a campaign to relaunch the EU, motivated by the belief that the serious problems with which the Union is currently grappling can only be resolved if we address the political challenges it faces. The publication of this report coincides with perhaps the most difficult moment for the Union since its creation. With the EU still struggling to overcome the drastic impact of the economic crisis, it is threatened by the storm clouds of another recession or, at the very least, weak growth.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Ana Belén Sánchez
  • Publication Date: 05-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Fundación Alternativas
  • Abstract: Hace unos años propuse que entre los Informes que la Fundación Alternativas dedica a los grandes temas de nuestro país y de Europa –la Democracia, la Desigualdad, la Unión Europea, la Cultura– no podía faltar uno consagrado a la Sostenibilidad.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jessica Lewis McFate, Harleen Gambhir
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of War
  • Abstract: The next forty-five days constitute a high-risk period for a surge of attacks by ISIS during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. ISIS traditionally uses Ramadan – which begins on June 6 and ends on July 5, 2016 - as a justification for its attacks and as an occasion to reorient its strategy. This year, ISIS will likely take action to reverse serious losses in Iraq and Syria while expanding its attacks against the non-Muslim world in an attempt to spark an apocalyptic total war. ISIS is still operationally capable in its core terrain and stands poised to expand its operations over the next six weeks, particularly in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. This forecast will outline the most likely and most dangerous targets that ISIS may seek to operate against during Ramadan
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Author: Jennifer Cafarella, Genevieve Casagrande
  • Publication Date: 03-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of War
  • Abstract: International negotiations to reach a political settlement in Syria have resumed, although serious challenges remain to reaching a political settlement. The talks follow two weeks of a “cessation of hostilities” in which the Russian air campaign in Syria decreased notably, though it did not entirely cease. Putin announced that he would withdraw some airframes from Syria on March 15, incentivizing both Assad and the opposition to engage in Geneva. Major opposition demands such as the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad from office have not been met, however, and Syrian regime officials have not conceded that there should be an immediate release of political prisoners. Reaching a political deal in Geneva under these conditions will therefore be difficult. The conditions in which the Geneva negotiations are taking place still strongly favor the regime, indicating that a transitional government, if formed, likely will fail to reconcile most Sunni armed actors with the government. The result could actually increase the jihadist threat while miring the U.S. and regional states in political turmoil in Damascus.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Syria
  • Author: Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman, Jennifer Cafarella
  • Publication Date: 02-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of War
  • Abstract: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP are publishing the findings of this exercise in multiple reports in a series titled U.S Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS and al Qaeda.
  • Topic: International Relations, Civil War, International Security
  • Political Geography: Syria
  • Author: Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Institute for the Study of War
  • Abstract: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. The planning group weighed the national security interests of the United States, its partners, its rivals, and its enemies operating in or influencing the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. It considered how current policies and interests are interacting in this complex environment. It identified the minimum endstates that would satisfy American national security requirements as well as the likely outcomes of current policies. The group also assessed the threat posed by al Qaeda and ISIS to the United States, both in the immediate and long term, and tested the probable outcomes of several potential courses of action that the United States could pursue in Iraq and Syria.
  • Topic: Intelligence, International Security
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Virgílio Gibbon
  • Publication Date: 10-2015
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
  • Abstract: Situational crises tend to concentrate economic activity in centers where such activity already is historically more significant. As a result, financial markets — especially the organized markets — tend to coalesce around these same centers because they benefit from the higher level of liquidity that concentrated economic activity offers. This undoubtedly was one of the major causes of the waning of the financial market in Rio de Janeiro, and the hegemony conquered by São Paulo as of the 1980s.
  • Topic: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets
  • Political Geography: Brazil
  • Author: Kevin Rudd
  • Publication Date: 04-2015
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Asia Society
  • Abstract: The future relationship between China and the United States represents one of the great mega-changes and mega-challenges of our age. Unlike other such changes, the consequences of China’s rise are unfolding gradually, sometimes purposefully, but most of the time imperceptibly while the world’s attention is drawn to more dramatic events elsewhere. With the rise of China, we are observing the geopolitical equivalent of the melting of the polar ice caps. Slowly the ice thins, cracks appear and one day a large sheet of ice spectac- ularly peels away. If captured on camera, the world momentarily sits up and pays attention before CNN returns our gaze to the drama of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s most recent atrocity.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: China, America
  • Author: Denis Hadžović
  • Publication Date: 12-2015
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: The Centre For Security Studies
  • Abstract: BiH’s contributions to peacekeeping operations take place in the context of ongoing reforms to its security sector, particularly within the defense sector, which has had a great influence on the operational capacities of the Armed Forces. As per the Defence white paper of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2005), the primary objective of the defense reform process was the establishment and strengthening of the state-level institutions which could function as the supreme authority on defense-related issues. Consequently, activities have focused on increasing the authority of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as the supreme commander of the BiH Armed Forces, expanding the role the Parliamentary Assembly in order to exercise effective democratic control over the Armed Forces, and establishing state- level defence institutions capable of supporting the Presidency in exercising command and control over the Armed Forces. To illustrate the complexity of defence reform in BiH and its subsequent effects on the functionality of the defense sector as a whole, it is worth mentioning that the current BiH Armed Forces have been formed of ex-warning factions – the Army of the Republic of Srpska and the Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – two entities within BiH which had full control over their forces until the last defence reform in 2005.
  • Topic: Peace Studies, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Bosnia and Herzegovina