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522. The Road to Low-Carbon Economies in the EU's Arab Neighbourhood
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- At the end of last year, Mediterranean Arab states (i.e., Egypt and Algeria) announced investments or tenders related to the production of renewable energy sources (RES). This is related to the pressure to move away from fossil fuels and the favourable conditions in these countries to produce solar energy. Although in the short term the EU cooperation with its Arab neighbours on RES might slow due to the war in Ukraine, in the longer perspective, given their capacities in this regard, it remains crucial in order for the EU to become independent on Russian energy.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Fossil Fuels, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Algeria, and Mediterranean
523. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine
524. Determinants of China's Policy Towards the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s position on the war in Ukraine depends mainly on the stabilisation of China’s internal situation before the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress planned for autumn this year. By holding NATO responsible for the conflict, the CCP reinforces its rhetoric about the legitimacy of the rivalry with the U.S. China’s signals on supporting peace negotiations and not helping Russia to circumvent sanctions are intended to protect China from possible Western secondary sanctions. The prospect of further Sino-Russian cooperation should induce the EU to reduce its economic interdependence with China.
- Topic:
- War, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
525. The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, War, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Vaccine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, and Venezuela
526. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
527. A New Rapprochement in Romanian-Moldovan Relations
- Author:
- Jakub Pieńkowski
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in December 2020, Romanian-Moldovan relations have steadily improved. In November 2021 she met for a fourth time with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, signing a “roadmap” of cooperation. Both countries recognise that a linguistic, historical, and cultural community binds them, however the challenge is to move from declarations to the implementation of projects, especially in infrastructure. Romania’s effective involvement in such projects, given its special ties with Moldova, may contribute to the success of its pro-European transformation, which is also supported by Poland.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Rapprochement
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, and Romania
528. Austrian Migration Policy and the Events in Afghanistan and Belarus
- Author:
- Łukasz Ogrodnik
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Contrary to the government’s rhetoric about restrictive migration policy, Austria remains open to the settlement of people from outside the EU. The takeover of power by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 and the intensifying crisis on the border between EU countries and Belarus stimulated the Austrian government in international forums in the field of migration. The prospects for cooperation with the V4 countries in this regard were heightened after interior minister Karl Nehammer was elevated to Chancellor.
- Topic:
- Government, International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Austria, and Belarus
529. Foreign Policy in the Presidential Campaign in South Korea
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The presidential election in South Korea will be held on 9 March. The main candidates are representatives of the largest political parties: Lee Jae-myung of the ruling liberal Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the opposition conservative People Power Party. A Lee victory would largely mean the continuation of the current government’s foreign policy—striving for dialogue with North Korea, maintaining a strong alliance with the U.S., and stable relations with China. If Yoon wins, it would increase the likelihood of stronger support of South Korea for the U.S. in its rivalry with China and increased tensions in relations with North Korea. Both candidates condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but draw different conclusions from the war.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Presidential Elections, and Campaigning
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
530. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy
- Author:
- Melchior Szczepanik
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
531. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
532. Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
533. Lebanon after the Elections
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
534. The UK's First Comprehensive Space Strategy
- Author:
- Aleksandra Kozioł
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The development of a comprehensive space strategy that encompasses civil and military aspects is in line with the British global strategy adopted last year. Its main goal is to strengthen the domestic space sector in the face of increasing competition on world markets and to make the United Kingdom one of the leaders in this field. The implementation of the strategy will be supported by increased funding, but without setting investment priorities and establishing closer cooperation with allies, including European countries, it will be difficult to achieve the objectives.
- Topic:
- Markets, Space, Strategic Competition, and Military
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
535. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria
536. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria
537. Russia's Wartime Censorship and Propaganda
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.
- Topic:
- War, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Censorship
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
538. French Politics after the Second Round of Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Amanda Dziubińska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell well short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly (289 required of the chamber’s 577 seats). For both radical right-wing and left-wing voters, the limitation of the president’s power was of more importance than ideological differences. As a result, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally saw an unprecedented result, becoming the main opposition party. In the most likely scenario of a coalition with Republicans or moderate left and right politicians, the presidential camp, as the greatest political force in the Assembly, will seek to continue the current foreign policy and retain its representatives in key ministries.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Emmanuel Macron, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
539. Germany in the Shadow of War and Inflation: Six Months of the Scholz Government
- Author:
- Łukasz Jasiński
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to power with the intention of undertaking significant economic and social reforms. Their ambitious plans were symbolised by the title of the coalition agreement, “Daring to Make More Progress”. The war in Ukraine, though, has forced the government to take revolutionary steps in the areas of defence and energy security. The Chancellor’s vagueness about the supply of weapons to Ukraine has been causing his SPD’s ratings to fall and The Greens’ popularity to rise. To reverse this trend, the chancellor will pursue further social reforms.
- Topic:
- Government, War, Domestic Politics, Inflation, and Olaf Scholz
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
540. Environment in Times of War: Climate and Energy Challenges in the Post-Soviet Region
- Author:
- Aldo Ferrari and Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been devastating both politically and environmentally. On top of the environmental damage directly caused by military operations, the invasion has put an abrupt end to the EU-Russia “green cooperation”, which had previously raised many hopes. At the same time, it has also shifted international attention away from climate and environmental concerns, which are particularly acute in the post-Soviet region. This Report analyses some of the main climate change and environmental issues in the post-Soviet space, providing an initial assessment of the invasion’s impact. The bulk of the latest scholarly and policy production on these matters focuses on Russia — given the country’s geopolitical and energy relevance. However, this analysis finds that environmental disasters such as the desertification of the Aral Sea transcend state borders and require a broader approach both from an analytic and policy standpoint.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, War, European Union, Post-Soviet Space, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine