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1401. 2020 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention: Rapporteur's Report

Author:
Alex Vandermaas-Peeler
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On June 10, 2020, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together scholars, practitioners, and civil society representatives to discuss possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global risk of mass atrocities and efficacy of mass atrocity prevention. This seminar was the first in a series designed to stimulate new policy-relevant research and begin building a network of scholars and practitioners focused on global trends and their implications for mass atrocities and atrocity prevention. Future seminar series topics include the global distribution of power, new technologies, demographics, climate change, and resource competition, and norms and ideologies. This rapporteur’s report summarizes major observations raised during the workshop.
Topic:
Genocide, Risk, Atrocities, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1402. The Future of Mass Atrocities and Atrocity Prevention: Report from the 2020 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:
Lawerence Woocher and Jonathan Strauss
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report compiles essays from several leading experts who participated in the seminar series. We asked them to reflect on one or more key themes and offer recommendations for research and/or policy initiatives that could help current and future leaders address mass atrocities. The collection of essays reflects the breadth and diversity of issues that are likely to affect mass atrocities and their prevention over the next decade. Reflecting on changes in the distribution of political power and weakening anti-atrocity norms, Scott Straus identifies four significant challenges for the atrocity prevention agenda. Dara Kay Cohen highlights an often-neglected factor--sex and gender inequalities-- and argues that it is likely to worsen over the next decade in ways that will exacerbate risks of mass atrocities. Roudabeh Kishi discusses how monitoring and early warning initiatives must adapt to changes in the information environment and the changing nature of atrocities. Dismas Nkunda focuses on how COVID-19 has affected civil society efforts to address mass atrocities. Finally, Jennifer Welsh discusses war crimes, “extreme atrocity,” and political barriers to effective prevention—three key issues for the prevention of mass atrocities over the coming decade.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, War Crimes, Inequality, Norms, Atrocities, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1403. Expert Meeting on Assessing Atrocity Risk in Northwest and Southwest Cameroon: Rapporteur's Report

Author:
Alex Vandermaas-Peeler
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In response to ongoing atrocities in Cameroon’s Northwest and Southwest regions, this expert meeting focused on ways in which atrocity risk could be heightened. In order to better specify the mass atrocity risks, meeting participants explored plausible scenarios in which atrocities would significantly worsen. These “worst-case” scenarios, detailed below, can inform atrocity prevention efforts and assist in generating targeted policy suggestions. The scenarios are not predictions, but they highlight some of the ways atrocities could worsen in coming months and years.
Topic:
Violence, Public Policy, Risk, and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

1404. “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in November 2021, “To Make Us Slowly Disappear”: The Chinese Government’s Assault on the Uyghurs. The Chinese government’s attacks on the Uyghur community are alarming in scale and severity. The report expresses the Museum’s grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide against the Uyghurs, a Muslim community in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwest China. The report also details multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government is committing against the Uyghur population. These crimes include forced sterilization, sexual violence, enslavement, torture, forcible transfer, persecution, and imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty. The Museum’s findings, based on publicly available information, demonstrate that China is failing to uphold its responsibility to protect its citizens from genocide and crimes against humanity. The Chinese government must halt its attacks on the Uyghur people and allow independent international monitors to investigate and ensure that the crimes have stopped. The seriousness of the assault on the Uyghur population demands the immediate response of the international community to protect the victims.
Topic:
Genocide, Government, Human Rights, Minorities, State Violence, Atrocities, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:
China and Xinjiang

1405. Human Rights Investigations in Ethiopia and Paths Forward for Justice

Author:
Isabelle Turner and Tallan Donine
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On November 19, 2021, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together researchers, international legal experts, and foreign policy practitioners to discuss the evolving crisis in Ethiopia and explore options for justice and accountability. This rapporteur’s report summarizes the key themes and observations raised during the roundtable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, International Law, Justice, Atrocities, and Investigations
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1406. Relaunching the Central American Minors Program: Opportunities to Enhance Child Safety and Family Reunification

Author:
Mark Greenberg, Stephanie Heredia, Kira Monin, Celia Reynolds, and Essey Workie
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The Central American Minors (CAM) Program was created to allow certain children living in dangerous conditions in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to enter the United States as refugees or parolees to join their parents. The program sought to create a safe, legal, and orderly alternative for children who might otherwise seek to enter the United States by crossing the U.S.-Mexico border unaccompanied. The program began in 2014, the Trump administration announced its termination in 2017, and the Biden administration relaunched it with expanded eligibility in 2021. This report takes a critical look at lessons learned from the program’s earlier iteration and offers recommendations for how to strengthen the relaunched version. It examines, among other things, eligibility criteria, program administration, safety provisions for children awaiting a decision on their case, and the assistance children have access to after they arrive in the United States. “Even with substantial improvements,” the authors write, “it is doubtful that the CAM Program will ever be able to assist more than a small fraction of children who face danger in northern Central America and have parents or close relatives in the United States. Still, with improvements, the program can help significantly greater numbers of children and families seeking relief and family reunification.”
Topic:
Health, Refugees, Immigrants, Resettlement, Asylum, Integration, Immigration Policy, and Family Reunification
Political Geography:
Central America and United States of America

1407. Solidarity in Isolation? Social Cohesion at a Time of Physical Distance

Author:
Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
In addition to its widespread public-health and economic impacts, the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged social cohesion in many countries by forcing changes in how people interact. Physical connection, the most human response to collective adversity, has been largely out of reach during long periods of lockdown, social distancing, and remote work and learning. The temporary closure of public spaces such as libraries and schools has also limited the spontaneous, casual encounters that can build bridges between disparate groups. This MPI Europe report explores ways to assess the pandemic’s effects on social capital and social infrastructure in Europe and North America. It also presents an initial analysis of how and where social cohesion is in peril and where it may actually be gaining strength, and highlights the importance of governments taking an inclusive approach and prioritizing social cohesion as societies move toward recovery. The authors identify three trends: Bridges between groups are weakening, even as new forms of connection may be strengthening bonds within existing networks. Immigrant integration programs have worked hard to move their offerings online, but digital tools may capture only a fraction of what in-person programming can and they may leave behind some people who most need assistance overcoming integration barriers, such as those with limited access to and familiarity with technology. A wide range of volunteering, mutual aid, and other grassroots forms of solidarity have emerged during the pandemic, but it remains to be seen which can make the switch from emergency response to longer-term engagement.
Topic:
Immigration, Citizenship, Integration, Social Cohesion, Social Capital, COVID-19, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Global Focus

1408. Future Scenarios for Global Mobility in the Shadow of Pandemic

Author:
Meghan Benton
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an undeniable and wide-ranging impact on human mobility of all kinds—from travel for work or study to family reunification to refugee resettlement. More than 18 months since the first round of travel restrictions were introduced, it remains to be seen when and how fully these different forms of mobility will recover. This report explores possible scenarios for what international mobility could look like in two to three years as an exercise to help national governments and international organizations think through the potential impacts of different policy choices and approaches to pandemic management. It also identifies critical questions to address in the coming months and years, such as: What tools should be used in conjunction with vaccines to safely reopen travel, given concerns that the uneven vaccine rollout will deepen existing inequalities in access to mobility? And how can countries better coordinate health screening requirements to minimize unnecessary duplication and costs to travelers? Returning to the pre-pandemic status quo for travel and migration seems highly unlikely, and the structures that are being built now will shape mobility systems and responses to future disease outbreaks for years to come. A key priority, the author writes, should be to outgrow the current picture of fragmented, frequently shifting policies in favor of transparent, equitable, and risk-proportionate rules.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Mobility, Public Health, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1409. Taking the Long View: Options for Inclusive Post-Pandemic Labor Markets

Author:
Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has ushered in harsh effects across European economies, and uncertainty persists even as vaccination campaigns have picked up speed. EU governments’ prompt investments in historically large job retention measures have temporarily cushioned the pandemic’s blow to labor markets, but this also means that the full impact is yet to be felt. What is clear, however, is that the crisis has exacerbated the labor market challenges some immigrant groups, such as recently arrived refugees and migrant women, were facing even before the pandemic began. Among the contributing factors are immigrants’ overrepresentation in hard-hit sectors, precarious work arrangements (such as part-time contracts and gig work), difficulties accessing social benefits, and some countries’ temporary suspension of integration supports. This MPI Europe report explores how the pandemic has affected immigrant workers thus far and how labor market trends such as automation, remote work, and the growth of the platform economy may affect migrant integration as European economies begin to recover. It also presents policy ideas and recommendations for crafting inclusive pandemic recovery strategies.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Refugees, Economy, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

1410. Healing the Gap: Building Inclusive Public-Health and Migrant Integration Systems in Europe

Author:
Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed European health-care systems to their limits, as millions of Europeans have fallen ill and hundreds of thousands have died from the virus. But these harms have not been felt evenly. Immigrants and refugees have had disproportionately high risks of infection and mortality, in part due to frontline and close-proximity jobs. This uneven impact has drawn increased attention to factors that have long created vulnerabilities for migrants across the health continuum, including greater exposure to drivers of ill health (such as low income and poor housing) and barriers to accessing health services. There is also a close link between migrant health and integration, as health problems may prevent immigrants from completing integration courses, from finding or maintaining employment, and from participating fully in their communities. Ensuring that health disparities are addressed and do not become long-term barriers to integration thus promises to foster more inclusive societies in addition to its benefits for individuals, families, and public health. This report examines the impact of the pandemic on Europe’s migrant populations and how European governments and nongovernmental actors have responded, including with initiatives to improve health-care accessibility. It situates this discussion within a broader look at how the migrant health policy field has grown since the early 2000s, and how trends that have emerged during the COVID-19 crisis may further shape this policy area.
Topic:
Refugees, Immigrants, Public Health, Integration, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

1411. "Diversifying" Social Investment: European Welfare States and Immigrant Integration in the Wake of the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:
Anton Hemerijck and Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Across Europe, the COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened awareness of the importance of robust, well-functioning welfare states in helping individuals, families, and communities weather threats to their lives and livelihoods. Initial EU and Member State responses to the pandemic and its economic fallout were much more vigorous than responses to other recent economic shocks, such as the Great Recession and the European debt crisis. Even so, European societies will likely have to contend with long-term social and economic impacts, which in many cases are exacerbating existing inequalities. The shift in the structure and goals of welfare spending since the start of the pandemic can be understood through the prism of “social investment.” In recent decades, European welfare states have moved away from a predominantly reactive focus on financial safety nets that protect individuals during periods of unemployment and illness, and toward investing in people’s human capital and employability to help them navigate life transitions and drive growth in advanced knowledge economies. Looking ahead, the success of social-investment policies will depend on their ability to account for immigration and diversity, increasingly prominent features of European societies that are central to understanding the nature and development of socioeconomic inequalities. This report explores whether the social-investment approach to welfare states could serve as a tool for post-pandemic recovery—particularly in diverse, immigrant-receiving societies. It examines how European welfare systems fared and adapted during the Great Recession, how social investment seeks to balance social and economic goals, and how lessons from recent immigrant integration policy developments could help improve the reach, accessibility, and relevance of social-investment initiatives.
Topic:
Education, Health, Children, Employment, Family, Welfare, Integration, COVID-19, and Workforce
Political Geography:
Europe

1412. The People of the PLA 2.0

Author:
Roy Kamphausen
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The 27th annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Conference—“The People in the PLA” 2.0—revisited a theme first explored at the 2006 conference but understudied since. This volume examines how the structure, education, training, and recruitment of PLA personnel have changed in the last decade and in the Xi Jinping era. Structural changes in the PLA have centered around two poles: improving the warfighting readiness of the PLA and strengthening Communist Party of China (CPC) control of the PLA. Reforms to the political work system, the evolution of the Second Artillery into the Rocket Force, and expansion of the PLA’s foreign-based force posture all indicate that the PLA is accelerating its drive to become a world-class military. To succeed in future “informatized” wars, the PLA recognizes it must improve its members’ education level. It seeks to leverage better China’s civilian education system while also addressing legacy issues that frustrate professional military education and the care of its veterans. The PLA is also reforming joint education and seeking insight from its exchanges and interactions with other nations’ militaries. The revamping of its academic institutions to support better its most technical and advanced entities for network warfare and other operations is indicative of the PLA’s fast-paced evolution.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Recruitment, Professional Military Education, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1413. Sustainable carbon removal

Author:
David R. Morrow and Simon Nicholson
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University
Abstract:
Carbon removal, which involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it, can help us meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The key question is not just how to make large-scale carbon removal operational, but how to make it sustainable. Sustainable practices balance environmental, social, and economic goals. Sustainable carbon removal balances those goals in order to meet the needs of the future without compromising the ability of current generations to meet their own needs. To operationalize this idea, we need to ask two questions: How should we measure the environmental, social, and economic impacts of carbon? How should we decide when carbon removal strikes the right balance between future and present needs? Analyzing carbon removal at different levels can illuminate environmental, social, and economic risks and opportunities. Levels of analysis range from broad technological categories, like reforestation, to specific projects, like Climeworks’ Orca direct air capture project in Iceland. Most analyses have focused on broad technological categories, but more fine-grained analyses are crucial for delivering actionable advice. Finding metrics for environmental, social, and economic impacts is vital for quantifying positive and negative impacts and comparing approaches. One possibility is to use the indicators for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which are politically negotiated, internationally accepted metrics of environmental, social, and economic sustainability. Determining which approaches are most sustainable requires balancing different positive and negative impacts that may not be easily comparable. There are several ways to do this, ranging from intuitive judgments to multicriteria decision analysis, although any decisions about which approaches are most sustainable are ultimately political decisions. In summary, to develop sustainable carbon removal, we need to identify sustainability metrics, such as the indicators behind the Sustainable Development Goals; apply those metrics at different levels of analysis; and develop strategies for determining which approaches strike the right balance between environmental, social, and economic goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1414. Self-Determination and Sea-Level Rise

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, Matthew Edbrooke, and Rana Ibrahem
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This report summarizes a workshop held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) and the Liechtenstein Mission to the United Nations, New York, between September and December 2020. The workshop and this report are products of LISD’s Project on Self-Determination, Environment, and Migration. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the workshop was divided into four seminars, taking place via video teleconference and under the Chatham House Rule.
Topic:
Environment, Migration, Self Determination, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1415. Climate, State, and Sovereignty: Self-Determination and Sea Level Rise

Author:
Christina Hioureas and Alejandra Torres Camprubi
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Climate change and sea-level rise are existential threats to low-lying island States, which face the looming submergence of their territory and the correlative depopulation and severe restrictions on their governmental capacity, at a national and international levels. Four States are particularly endangered because they are exclusively (or almost exclusively) composed of coral islands and atolls below 10 or even five meters of altitude. They are Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change foresaw an average rise of sea level of 98 cm by 2100. This prospect, often regarded as conservative, in fact represents a possible death sentence for these States. As a result, low-lying island States are considering and deploying legal and physical strategies to protect their continuity as States, sparking new debates on the potential evolution of the law on Statehood and the international law of the sea.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Sovereignty, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Asia, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Maldives

1416. Gender, Law, and Security: Selected Student Research from the Project on Gender and the Global Community, 2019-2020

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, Beth English, Jake Gutman, Seoyoung Hong, Mikaylah Ladue, Katrin Lewis, and Liza Paudel
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Who is the ‘self’ in self-determination? Feminist scholars and activists have long noted that, when self-determination means primarily non-interference in the internal affairs of a governing body, practices and traditions through which men dominate women can flourish. In order to fully realize the promise of the concept of self-determination, it is therefore best understood in both collective and individual forms. Women across the world have long sought to influence and shape the nature of their own lives, with a gendered understanding of power and how hierarchies of power are not only created and maintained, and perpetuate inequalities, but also how they can potentially be reorganized and remade. In this spirit, the research agenda and related activities of the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University’s Project on Gender in the Global Community (GGC) uses gender as a primary lens for analysis and starting point for broader dialogues about sustainable development, state building, economic and political participation, negotiation and mediation, peace, and security. The GGC Student Fellows Program, inaugurated during the 2017-18 academic year, has been an integral complement to this work. Building on student interest in the GGC project and modeled on the successful student fellows program organized as part of LISD’s Project on Religion, Diplomacy and International Relations (PORDIR), a dedicated student cohort of Princeton students ranging from first-year undergraduates to Ph.D. candidates and postdocs, were selected through a competitive application process. Over the course of the 2019-20 fellowship year, GGC fellows pursued independent, academically rigorous research, a sampling of which is presented in this publication. In December 2019, they presented their projects alongside peers from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs during a joint student research day. The papers in this volume include the written output of this independent work, which represents a variety of disciplines and methodologies and reflect the range of work undertaken by GGC students throughout the year.
Topic:
Governance, Law, Self Determination, Influence, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1417. Deadly Disparities in the time of COVID-19: How Public Policy Fails Black and Latinx Chicagoans

Author:
Cal Lee Garrett, Cynthia Brito, Ivan Arenas, Claire Laurier Decoteau, and Fructoso M. Basaldua Jr.
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:
In this report we center the lived experiences Black, Latinx, and white residents of three neighborhoods — Austin, Little Village, and Albany Park — in order to explore how the pandemic has impacted different communities in the city. Drawing on over 150 interviews with residents and policy makers, we find that while COVID-19 has been treated as a health crisis at the federal, state, and local levels and thus has been fought through a series of public health strategies, the residents we spoke to experienced it as a much broader crisis related to housing, jobs, childcare, schooling, and healthcare. The policy response to COVID-19 gave explicit attention to racial equity but, for a number of reasons we lay out, often fell short in meeting the needs of the most vulnerable. Longstanding structural inequities meant that low-income and working-class Chicagoans were more vulnerable both to the disease and to the impact of disease mitigation strategies (e.g., economic fallout of the shutdown).
Topic:
Minorities, Discrimination, Urban, Community, Health Crisis, and Equality
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1418. Between the Great Migration and Growing Exodus: The Future of Black Chicago?

Author:
Teresa Cordova, Eve L. Ewing, Lisa Yun Lee, Alden Loury, Mary Pattillo, Barbara Ransby, David Stovall, and Stacey Sutton
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy (IRRPP), University of Illinois at Chicago
Abstract:
Starting in 1980, Chicago’s African American population growth not only halted, but reversed. By 2016, the population of black Chicagoans had decreased by 350,000 from its peak in 1980. These population trends have attracted significant media attention and speculation about why black Chicagoans are leaving the city. Given these trends, IRRPP set out to analyze what the data on population in Chicago can tell us about black migration into and out of the city. In this report, we assess the historical context of shifts taking place over the past 100 years, provide a more detailed analysis of population change across Chicago neighborhoods from 1990 to 2016, and examine where Chicagoans who are leaving the city are going.
Topic:
Migration, Minorities, Urban, and Community
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

1419. Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors

Author:
Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts. The current and expected demise of the traditional arms-control architecture, the renewed strategic competition, and the polarization of the multilateral debate on nuclear weapons have contributed to this renewed salience. Building upon the 2019 G7 Statement on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this report defines strategic risk reduction as the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral measures that aim at lowering the likelihood of nuclear weapons use through improved communication, predictability, and restraint, and underlines the need to adopt a strategic approach to nuclear risk reduction. Risks emanating from conflict dynamics between nuclear powers are different in nature and severity from those arising from technical incidents. This report argues that in a context of growing geopolitical rivalries, diplomats should prioritize mitigating the former type of risk. Risk reduction efforts should aim at hindering the most dangerous behaviors in crisis time, through measures focusing both on nuclear forces and on nonnuclear capabilities, whose impact on strategic balances keeps growing. Strategic risk reduction can strengthen international security and strategic stability by complementing arms control measures and deterrence policies. It is therefore crucial to ensure that diplomatic initiatives aimed at limiting nuclear risks do not ultimately, and paradoxically, increase the risk of war. Historical experience shows not only the feasibility of such an approach, but also the concrete security benefits that can be derived from it, by channeling the behavior of nuclear powers in times of tensions, reducing the ambiguity inherent in certain strategies and behaviors, or laying the foundations for international regimes based on operational and strategic restraint as well as on transparency.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, and United States of America

1420. Once a Jihadist, Always a Jihadist? A Deradicalization Program Seen from the Inside

Author:
Marc Hecker
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
France has traditionally taken a security-based approach to the fight against terror. It was a latecomer to the field of radicalization prevention and the establishment of disengagement programs aimed at jihadists. It only started to think seriously about the issue in 2013 and its first attempts involved certain irregularities. For that reason, deradicalization suffers from a persistent bad reputation in France. The disengagement and reintegration programs established since 2016—RIVE from 2016 until 2018 and PAIRS, which started in 2018 and is still running—have operated behind closed doors. Discreetness was preferred to overcommunication. This study—the result of a long-term field survey of the staff, participants, and partners of PAIRS—opens the black box of disengagement methods. It offers a nuanced assessment of these initiatives, which, after four years of operations, have produced reassuring results: among the dozens of terrorist offenders who have participated in RIVE and PAIRS in open custody, none have reoffended.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamism, Jihad, and Deradicalization
Political Geography:
Europe and France

1421. Tanzania’s 2020 Election: Return of the One-Party State

Author:
Michaela Collord
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Beginning with early voting in Zanzibar on October 27, 2020, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, had won a landslide. After significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule. Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham. Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions: What explains the election results? And what are the implications for Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015. The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

1422. Collective Collapse or Resilience? European Defense Priorities in the Pandemic Era

Author:
Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
To what extent has the COVID-19 pandemic affected defense priorities across Europe? When the pandemic reached its cities, Europe was already under severe internal and external stress. By throwing the continent and the world into an unprecedented economic crisis while security challenges abound, the pandemic has exposed Europe to a risk of irreversible loss of capacity for collective action, hampering its influence and control over its regional areas of interest. One year after, this report provides a comparative assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the foreign and defense policies and spending levels of ten different European countries. It not only aims at assessing the immediate impact of the pandemic on the defense posture of each country but more importantly at mapping in which areas the pandemic did or might prove disruptive for European defense priorities, whether directly or indirectly. Although uncertainty remains about the long-term effects of the current crisis, the different case studies highlight that, contrary to the most pessimistic scenarios, the pandemic has so far had a relatively modest impact on defense and security policies. Monitored European countries have so far shown resilience in their individual and collective responses to the crisis. If anything, changes brought by the pandemic are less striking than the continuity observed in most cases when it comes to foreign and defense policies, from stated levels of ambition to defense spending plans. It is, however, unclear how enduring this resilience can prove in the longer-term in the face of disruptive developments such as new variants of the virus, sweeping domestic political developments in Europe, radical changes in the US commitment to European security, or an intensified strategic competition in Europe’s neighborhood and beyond it.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

1423. The Automotive Industry: The Achilles’ Heel of German Economy?

Author:
Marie Krpata
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The global car market has been shrinking since 2018. This is a key economic sector for Germany whose producers belong to the Top 15 carmakers worldwide. Yet they are running the risk of being outclassed and eventually replaced, given emerging actors in the USA and China. These new competitors benefit from the growing digitization of the mobility sector, disruptive economic models and the obsolescence of vehicles with an internal combustion engine. This form of propulsion is progressively being replaced by less-polluting alternatives, which are being endorsed by public authorities. The Chinese-American rivalry is also impacting German carmakers, whose strategy greatly relies on the globalization of production chains. This has led to major successes in the past, but the threat of a technological decoupling between the USA and China limits German carmakers’ activities in terms of production and exports. Access to the Chinese market, which accounts for nearly 20% of the global population, is indispensable for the German brands that intend to benefit from China’s catch-up effects. European industrial and political actors plan to invest in promising sectors whilst seeking to respect environmental and social objectives. Also, the European Union (EU), led by a German powerhouse, intends to prevent market distortions such as hurdles to market access, while supporting the emergence of technologies and the compliance with production standards. However, developments in the automotive sector are challenging the EU’s capacity to act in a unified fashion, even if the EU is not seeking to impose its vision on the industry’s private sector, in a top-down manner.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, European Union, Social Policy, Mobility, Industrialization, Green Deal, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1424. Green Batteries: a Competitive Advantage for Europe’s Electric Vehicle Value Chain?

Author:
Carole Mathieu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Aligning its climate and industrial policies, the European Union (UE) is introducing sustainability requirements for the whole life-cycle of electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This initiative would not only ensure that EVs fit with Europe’s climate-neutrality and resource-efficiency pledges, but also give European new entrants a better chance to compete. Since 2017, the EU’s nascent green industrial policy has made the EV battery value chain its favored experimental field. The wave of investments in battery cell manufacturing projects suggests that the worst-case scenario of Europe subsidizing massive battery cell imports will not materialize. Cell manufacturers have a direct commercial interest in setting up operations closer to the European automakers’ EV assembly factories, and Member States can provide an additional argument for local cell production with their large financial support for EU-based industrial projects. However, strategic autonomy remains a distant dream, as most confirmed projects are being developed by non-EU stakeholders. In addition, Europe has not yet managed to attract corresponding investments in the manufacturing of battery cell components, while its very limited control on raw material supply chains does not match its political aspirations. Despite pressure from civil society, the lack of consensual calculation methodologies makes it almost impossible for manufacturers to substantiate their green claims, especially with regards to carbon footprints. Yet, the life-cycle assessment (LCA) literature points to cell and active material manufacturing as key climate hotspots. Thus, efforts should concentrate on reducing energy consumption for these critical production steps and covering incompressible needs with grid-based or contract-based low-carbon electricity, provided the latter option guarantees the additionality of renewable electricity supplies. In addition, the extraction and refining of raw materials offer the second largest and mostly untapped potential for green differentiation, especially when combining climate and local environmental impact considerations. Ultimately, manufacturing green batteries does not necessarily require locating all production steps in Europe, but European players may have a competitive edge thanks to their expertise in measuring and improving the sustainability of their operations. In addition, reducing the environmental footprint of products requires a holistic view of supply chain management, which pleads for building closer ties between industrial stakeholders. Should the final text of the Batteries Regulation retain an ambitious timeframe for information and labelling requirements, it could be a game changer for the European EV market. The methodological and practical challenges should not be underestimated, but the best way to obtain robust implementation rules is to engage the industry in the drafting process. If the EU legislator confirms that customers should be able to compare the environmental performance of EV batteries as of 2023, companies should see the urgency of sharing their knowledge with the EC, and Member States will allocate appropriate resources to enforcement procedures. Likewise, the political signal will encourage EU automakers to place greater focus on sustainability in their ongoing supplier selection processes, instead of waiting for future industrial cycles to take serious action. The Batteries Regulation is not just about the EV value chain, it is an opportunity to demonstrate the high potential of Europe’s green industrial policy, delivering consumer trust, jobs, and strategic autonomy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Batteries, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:
Europe

1425. Denmark: A Case Study for a Climate-Neutral Europe

Author:
Thibault Menu
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In recent years, Denmark has steadily emerged as a leader and role model in the global green energy transition. Its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions since 2010 have been reduced at greater pace than those of the European Union (EU) average. This transformation is all the more impressive, given that the country used to be a significant oil and gas producer which also relied heavily on coal for power generation. From its highly publicized success in offshore wind, to its ambitious goal of cutting GHG emissions by 70% by 2030 - which would put Denmark as a European and global frontrunner, with only Finland being more ambitious and planning to be climate neutral already by 2035 – as well as its pioneering green energy policies, the country has transformed itself into a beacon for low carbon technologies and public policies. The country has a record high share of renewable energy sources in power generation, with wind in the lead. Given the recent announcements and climate goals set by the Von der Leyen Commission, Denmark serves as an interesting case study for other European and world nations alike on how to embark on their own energy transitions. This paper assesses whether the country is really successful in accelerating even more than its European peers in its decarbonization process. And if so, what is so special about Denmark and what can be learned from its transformation? Policies range from well-publicized successes, such as the country’s ability to nearly rid itself from coal in its power mix in less than thirty years by increasingly developing its wind power potential, in leading the offshore wind segment and championing repowering, but also its lesser-known achievements, such as the diffusion of combined heat and power (CHP) and district heating across the country. Another success point of the country’s strategy relies in promoting energy efficiency in the industrial sector as well as its use of energy taxation for enhanced decarbonization, even in challenging sectors such as transportation. Questions remain open, especially concerning the sustainability credentials of biomass, a fuel which is a key component of the country’s energy mix, but also the future role of natural gas, which has an important balancing role in power generation, given the country decision to rid itself of oil and gas (O&G) production by the middle of the century. To a large extent, the Danish success story so far can be linked to a combination of socio-political factors including: a high level of stability and predictability in energy policy stemming from Denmark’s long historical tradition of broad energy agreements, a cross-sectoral and holistic approach to developing the nation’s energy policy involving a high level of participation from various public and private actors, a willingness to back innovative technologies, combined with generous public policy schemes in order to bring them to market-level competitiveness. Next frontiers will consist of large-scale carbon capture and sequestration projects, as well as low carbon energy islands. However, it would be somewhat reductive to simply equate Denmark’s success story to these previously mentioned factors. Indeed, the Scandinavian nation also benefits from certain geographical dispositions which are great assets for its path to decarbonization. For one, the country is ideally placed to develop variable renewable energy sources, most notably wind power given its topography and its strong wind resources. On top of this, Denmark also benefits from an incredibly reliable and interconnected power grid thereby making renewable energy integration into the wide energy system all the easier. In addition, the fact that its power grid is one of the most interconnected in Europe entails that excess renewable energy production can quickly be exported when the wind blows, just as imports can hastily be called upon when wind is found to be lacking. Finally, from a more socio-political perspective, the relatively flat social structure of Danish society as well as the country’s high level of institutional trust, makes policymaking and policy implementation simpler as well as more effective than in other European states. As such, although this paper identifies important lessons to be learnt from Denmark’s decarbonization strategies, the context as well as the particular characteristics of the country in which these were implemented should nevertheless be considered when seeking to establish similarly successful carbon reduction policies. In any case, Denmark is still far from coming close to achieving its objectives and will have to accelerate its decarbonization on all fronts: the country’s current total primary energy supply still relies for 60% on fossil fuels.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Decarbonization, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

1426. Complementarity or Competition? Franco-British Cooperation and the European Horizon of French Defense Policy

Author:
Alice Pannier
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
What does future hold for the Franco-British defense partnership after Brexit? France and the United Kingdom have, for long, enjoyed a close defense relationship, thanks in part to their analogous strategic cultures. The 2010 Lancaster House treaties built on this proximity to expand cooperation in the fields of nuclear weapons, force projection, interoperability and industrial integration. In spite of genuine progress in the first years following the treaties, the Franco-British strategic partnership has had to face two pitfalls: on the one hand, Brexit and its political consequences for the United Kingdom, and, on the other hand, President Macron’s attempt to revive European defense and Franco-German cooperation. The tenth anniversary of Lancaster House should offer the opportunity to rethink the convergence between bilateral cooperation and the resolutely European horizon of French defense policy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Germany

1427. Mavi Vatan, the "Blue Homeland": the Origins, Influences and Limits of an Ambitious Doctrine for Turkey

Author:
Aurélien Denizeau
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Turkey’s activism in the Eastern Mediterranean now appears to be guided by an ambitious legal and geopolitical doctrine, based on the claim of a vast maritime domain – the “Blue Homeland” or Mavi Vatan in Turkish. Developed by admirals of Turkey’s Navy, who are aware of the strategic importance of the sea, this approach is influential among Turkey's military, political, economic, and intellectual elites. Although it presents certain contradictions with the traditional vision of the Islamo-conservatives, Mavi Vatan has been adopted by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, offering him the opportunity to consolidate his alliance with nationalist movements and to provide a legal framework for his action in Libya. However, the success of this doctrine also depends on Turkey's ability to modernize its naval forces, an effort that will require the maintenance of strong international partnerships.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nationalism, Navy, Grand Strategy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Military
Political Geography:
Turkey and Mediterranean

1428. Russia and Turkey. Strategic Partners and Rivals

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The extraordinarily troublesome year 2020 tested many international institutions and bilateral ties, but few experienced sharper challenges than the complex relations between Russia and Turkey, which have a strong impact on crisis developments in Europe’s immediate neighborhood. Moscow can be content that Ankara is now perceived in Paris, Berlin and Washington DC as a major troublemaker, but it finds itself rather too often on the receiving end of Turkish attempts at projecting power. It was the unreserved and forceful support granted by Turkey to Azerbaijan in the war against Armenia in autumn 2020 that forced many Russian analysts to re-evaluate the status and prospects of relations with this important and difficult neighbor. There is a degree of compatibility between the autocratic political systems maturing in Russia and Turkey, but the latter state is a NATO member, while the former perceives the Atlantic Alliance as the inexorable adversary. Many drivers shaping Russian-Turkish relations, from deepening domestic discontent with corrupt authoritarian rule to the shifts in the European energy market, are outside the control of their ambitious autocrats. This analysis will focus on the most recent and ongoing shifts in the character of this relationship. Evaluation of the key dimensions of bilateral interactions, from historical and economic to personal, is followed by an investigation of the dynamics of interplay in four key intersections: the Syrian warzone, the Black Sea area, the Libyan conflict, and the Caucasus, shaken by the new spasm of war around Nagorno Karabakh.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

1429. Great Britain and Africa: Boris Johnson's Strategic Reversals

Author:
François Gaulme
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In 2020-2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson undertook to fundamentally change the operational mode and strategy of relations between the United Kingdom and the African continent bequeathed by his predecessors since 1997. Great Britain and Africa : Boris Johnson's Strategic Reversals He first put an end to the autonomy and power of the great Department for International Development (DfID), by merging it with the Foreign Office. Deciding to make the granting of aid political, he also reduced its amount on the grounds of the recession hitting the country but against British legislation itself. His strategy for external deployment, adopted in March 2021 and based primarily on an “Indo-Pacific tilt”, has marginalised the relationship with Africa to which Theresa May had wanted to give new impetus in the perspective of the Brexit in 2018. While taking up her concept of “Global Britain”, her successor now seems to want to limit ties with Africa to business relations, highly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, as well as minimal participation in security efforts on the continent. This note analyses such reversals in a historical perspective of the end of a relational cycle. It concludes that Boris Johnson’s very personal policy towards Africa is too reductive not to be amended. In particular on aid and fundamental rights, it neglects the complexity of British positions towards this continent. By reaffirming the strength of the strategic relationship with the United States, it will also have to adapt to the new African policy of the Biden administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Foreign Aid, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, and Europe

1430. Commercial Space in Europe: A Balancing Act between Physics, Politics and Profession

Author:
KP Ludwig
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Satellite constellations have become core elements of the digital transition. Over the next decade, several thousand satellites will have to be launched, to build these constellations. For positioning satellites, preferably in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), reliable and affordable launch services are essential. At the end of 2020, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded three German space start-ups competing contracts in order to support its small-launch system. One may identify a change in Germany’s space policy, since the ESA Ministerial Council (MC) in Seville in late 2019. Besides supporting programs in its traditional fields of interest, Germany showed a special interest in supporting the Commercial Space Transportation Service acceleration program for the above-mentioned German space start-ups. This report is focused on a technical analysis of the market demands and the special commercial market conditions in LEO. It describes the competitive situation and, especially, the limiting conditions, which may hinder private investors from continuing to support a sound technical solution. These are: the size of the accessible market share, the natural risks of operating complex systems in a hostile environment, and the regulatory hurdles in acquiring formal approval by the authorities. A major factor for the expected business success is and will be the governmental support that the consortia can acquire.
Topic:
Space, Digitization, Satellite, and Airspace
Political Geography:
Germany and European Union

1431. Can the Biggest Emitters Set Up a Climate Club? A Review of International Carbon Pricing Debates

Author:
Carole Mathieu
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The world’s largest emitting countries are reconsidering the role of carbon pricing instruments and increasingly looking at carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) to address leakage concerns. This renewed momentum should trigger a broader discussion on how to make trade policies compatible with the climate agenda. With the Glasgow climate conference (COP26) approaching, the concept of putting a price on carbon is generating unprecedented interest in Canada and the United States (US), China and Japan. But the European Union (EU) still stands as an exception; it is the only regional trading bloc that is determined to leverage the full potential of its emissions trading system (ETS). To date, others have lacked the political backing to deploy nation-wide carbon pricing initiatives with a design sturdy enough to drive meaningful emission reductions. Canada has made significant progress with the adoption of a national framework for carbon pricing in 2018. The country’s draft regulations foresee the introduction of a federal ETS as of 2022 and a gradual increase in carbon prices, but its ambitions risk being upset by the lack of consistent efforts in the US, its largest trading partner. Given US political divides, a federal carbon pricing scheme is unlikely to materialize in the short run. In China, the long-delayed national ETS has finally been launched. However, its scope is restricted to the power sector for now, and it is likely to only have a modest impact on coal use with its current design. Several arguments may discourage China from fully extending its ETS as planned and rather argue in favor of introducing a complementary carbon tax. Japan has also engaged an expert debate on the benefits of introducing carbon pricing at the national level, but the government is struggling to find a balance between the risk of worsening competitiveness and the need to mobilize investment in clean technologies. For the EU, the upcoming reform of the EU ETS is an opportunity to introduce a truly demanding cap reduction for the 2023-2030 period and make this flagship instrument more robust, predictable, and fair. To initiate in-depth decarbonization of its industry, the EU will need to phase out free allowances. Therefore, other measures addressing unfair competition will have to be introduced and CBAM could be part of the solution. A unilateral application is however no panacea. The EU should move cautiously and start implementing the CBAM to a small set of sectors. This also means that the challenge of leveling the playing field with non-EU producers will remain largely unresolved. There is little chance that an international alliance on carbon pricing or “climate club” can be set up within a timeframe compatible with the climate emergency. Yet, the EU’s CBAM proposal can encourage trading partners to accelerate decision-making on carbon pricing, at least to obtain partial exemption. In addition, having a concrete anti-leakage proposal on the table leads to a sense of the inevitable mismatches between the global trade and climate agendas. Large emitters are starting to acknowledge the need for a multilateral discussion on how to decarbonize industries while maintaining a level playing field. The next step should be to kickstart an open discussion in all possible multilateral fora (G20, International Energy Agency, global industry associations, etc.) and mandate the World Trade Organization (WTO) to develop guidance on a wide range of instruments (including CBAM, but also eco-design labelling and standards, differentiated tariffs based on CO2 intensity, etc.) and including a common exemption approach for Least Developed Countries. Exploring a set of workable solutions should be more attractive to trade partners than pushing for a uniform solution, but results would still take time to materialize. Hence, establishing a level playing field with imports will likely require the EU – and all countries with an aggressive decarbonization agenda for their industries – to strengthen their financial and regulatory support to the deployment of innovative low-carbon manufacturing processes. Again, this almost-unavoidable resort to State aid would strongly benefit from a multilateral discussion.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, and Canada

1432. Health Data Governance: Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe, China, and the United States

Author:
Clément Tonon and Julie Martinez
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The health crisis has triggered a tectonic movement in the recomposition of health data governance and protection models around the world, while accelerating the investment of large digital companies in the field of e-health. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the shortcomings of pre-existing governance models in every region of the world and the need to move towards a model of public health crisis management "through health data". For Europe and for France in particular, the health crisis has revealed a long "technological innocence". Despite a strategic awakening, questions remain about the ability of Europeans to cooperate effectively and move towards a common digital space in health. In the United States, the pandemic has created tensions around the health data governance model – particularly on the articulation between the federal government and state authorities. Changes are announced by President Joe Biden, which tend towards a model of global regulation of personal data. In China, the pandemic has accelerated the transition to a model of surveillance capitalism which could lead in the short term to a new power struggle between the regime and the Chinese digital giants. Finally, the COVID-19 crisis has accelerated the rise of digital companies, which are now positioning themselves on the entire value chain of health data, from its raw collection via connected objects to its mass processing for insurance purposes. They now have all the levers in hand to economically value this massive data with the help of artificial intelligence.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Geopolitics, Data, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

1433. Geopolitics of the World’s Forests: Strategies for Tackling Deforestation

Author:
Alain Karsenty
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Deforestation continues at a worrying pace worldwide, except in temperate and boreal countries. It is caused by the race for land, underpinned by population growth and rising global demand for “deforestation-prone” products. Moreover, with climate change, mega-fires are now posing unprecedented threats to forests. China has a major influence on the evolution of the world’s forests through its trade and investment in infrastructures for the Belt and Road Initiative. The country has stopped the exploitation of its natural forests, but it is using imports to meet its huge timber needs, while its demand for agricultural products carrying risks of deforestation is also growing, such as soybeans and palm oil. In Africa and Southeast Asia, large European forestry firms are in retreat, given the expansion of Asian firms (from Malaysia, China, and Vietnam), and agribusiness firms are gaining influence everywhere. Major reforestation operations are, at best, of limited effectiveness when they are not accompanied by the recognition of land rights, and when they lead to monoculture plantations with fast-growing tree species. By contrast, independent certifications appear to be essential tools for forest management and ensuring zero-deforestation production. Finally, the United Nations’ REDD+ mechanism pays countries that reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, or that increase their carbon stocks through plantations. Yet, REDD+ is criticized because it relies on reference scenarios: the anticipated emissions paths presented by the countries themselves. Moreover, it always faces the problem of the “non-permanence” of carbon storage in forests or plantations that may burn or simply die. At the same time, companies’ growing concerns to offset some of their emissions has generated strong demand for carbon credits from forest projects. Hundreds of “REDD+ projects” have emerged, relying on specific certifications to support the issuance of carbon credits in “voluntary markets.” This entails risks of double-counting emission reductions at the national level. Moreover, the uncertain additionality and the risks of “leakage” (shifting deforestation pressures elsewhere) cast doubt on the environmental integrity of these private initiatives. Finally, the success of “REDD+ projects” remains conditional on taking into account the problems of land security of rural inhabitants, a key factor in reforestation, and in their access to land. While institutionalized consensuses continue to pile up, there is in fact an urgent need to reconsider existing instruments, taking into account systemic and political economy questions which are too often ignored. The 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) is scheduled to take place in China in October 2021, and needs to participate in the necessary leap forward on global forest governance: The principle of “results-based payment” (RBP) should be complemented by broad support for the investments needed to “produce” these results. It should only retain the coherence of public policies that have real potential impacts on forests as an essential criterion for assessing results. The demand for products linked to deforestation must be strictly controlled. Governments should review trade agreements with countries that encourage land-forest conversion and include measures to tackle deforestation that are legally binding. Imports of products involved in illegal deforestation must be banned, and tariffs must favor products certified as involving zero deforestation. Developing countries should be helped to implement incentive-based environmental taxation to support agricultural production based on zero-deforestation and sustainable forests. Fiscally neutral bonus-malus systems could favor traced and certified production and penalize production whose origin is uncertain and presumably unsustainable. A common agenda for food security, tackling deforestation and restoring degraded natural ecosystems needs to be built with developing countries. Ecological intensification through peasant-farmer agroecology, crop-livestock associations and agroforestry should become priorities. Necessary investments could be channeled through programs of payments for ecosystem services (PES). Finally, the forest concession regimes must evolve to include the recognition of overlapping rights, the commercial management of new resources and the sharing of profits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1434. Strategic Calculation: High-Performance Computing and Quantum Computing in Europe’s Quest for Technological Power

Author:
Alice Pannier
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Computing power plays a key role in enabling machine learning, for scientific research, and in the military domain. Therefore, the race for computing power has become a key element of the US-China technological competition, and it is also a strategic priority for Europe. This study focuses on two complementary segments of computing: high-performance computing (HPC, also known as “supercomputing”), and quantum computing. HPC has for several decades been used in scientific research, meteorology, and the military. While states continue to drive the needs for massive computers, the field is also witnessing a diversification of uses in industry. Meanwhile, quantum computing is still at an experimental stage but has highly disruptive potential, as it promises to multiply computing power exponentially. As such, it has become a focal point for government, industry, and investors around the globe. In the global race, European countries are seeking to pool resources by encouraging the development of federated computing services, data infrastructures, and a local industry. Of course, Europe faces multiple challenges (the design and production of processors, energy consumption constraints, and scarce private investment) and risks (such as export restrictions and company takeovers). Yet, today, quantum computing does offer an opportunity to learn lessons from past developments in the field of classical computing, and to take the right actions early on, to reap the societal, economic and security benefits of this technology.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Data, Quantum Computers, Digital Sovereignty, and Supercomputers
Political Geography:
Europe

1435. The French Military's Perception of the Turkish Military and Turkey's Expansion in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Aris Marghelis
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In the summer of 2020, the Central and Eastern Mediterranean became the center of unusual tensions between France and Turkey. Given that these tensions were also military, which is uncommon for the two countries, the perception that the French military has of Turkey’s army and its doctrine is particularly relevant to address. From the interviews that were conducted with French officers, it appears that for the French military, 2016 and 2020 are two milestones in the evolution of both Turkish political and military Turkish attitudes. From 2016 onwards, the Syrian and Libyan conflicts uncovered diverging interests between France and Turkey, with military implications for France. In the same year, Turkish military behavior in the Eastern Mediterranean started shifting, but was at first seen as of little consequence. Additionally, the failed coup attempt against President R. T. Erdogan decreased the level and quality of communication and cooperation between both militaries. In 2020, Turkish aggressiveness openly manifested itself in the Eastern Mediterranean, including directly against France with the Courbet incident. This attitude was criticized by the interviewees who specified that such behavior, along with unilateral actions and faits accomplis, would not be tolerated in the future. Yet, it also appears that the French military show respect for the Turkish armed forces. The latter are generally accredited with professionalism, reliability, efficiency, and determination. The interviews revealed no sign of animosity by the French officers towards their Turkish counterparts: sometimes, even the opposite was detected.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Army, and Military
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, France, and Mediterranean

1436. A Principled Middle Power Diplomacy Approach For South Korea to Navigate the U.S.-China Rivalry

Author:
Saeme Kim
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In the context of growing US-China tensions, South Korean administrations have opted for degrees of strategic ambiguity, refraining from overt actions that suggest South Korea is taking sides. While strategic ambiguity has been moderately successful, there are limits to this approach which make it unsustainable. This paper will argue that rather, South Korea needs to apply a principled middle power diplomacy, which refers to a middle power carrying out roles expected of it in accordance with a set of rules or values that uphold the liberal international order. The goal of principled middle power diplomacy would be to shape the environment in which the current great power rivalry is unfolding, in order to moderate the fallout of great power competition. After an analysis of South Korea’s middle power diplomacy, this paper will recommend that South Korea double down on its commitment to multilateralism so that it can augment its roles as a facilitator and agenda-setter on the international stage.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1437. South Korea as a Fourth Industrial Revolution Middle Power?

Author:
Dongwoo Kim
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a framework for conceptualizing middle powerism in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, using South Korea as an example. The paper argues that the systemic transformation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution has created new openings for middle powerism, and proposes 1) technology, 2) networks, and 3) governance as factors that could enable it. Then, South Korea’s capacities in each of these three areas, potential barriers, and ultimately Seoul’s capacity to act as a “Fourth Industrial Revolution” middle power are evaluated.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Science and Technology, Governance, Industrialization, and Middle Power
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

1438. Building on the Middle: Diversifying South Korea’s Foreign Policy Narrative and Economic Ties

Author:
Carolin Wefer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The rivalry between the United States and China is affecting countries in its midst. This particularly applies to South Korea. The country is a strong economic player with a successful net of free trade agreements. Additionally, it has branded itself as a middle power, a multilateralist, and good international citizen. However, South Korea’s middle power perspective has recently assumed a literal definition of being situated in the middle of two great powers. Seoul’s dependencies on both the U.S. and China are undeniable. As the conflict intensifies, it is thus essential for South Korea to diversify its ties through trade policy and multilateral fora. This requires leaving the literal middle power definition behind and leveraging its economic standing towards an increase in international status, as well as refocusing on the figurative middle power narrative that brought the country to its initial global esteem. Through diversification and the build-up of its economic and multilateral prowess, South Korea stands to lessen the shocks of the U.S.-China rivalry. Joining RCEP and obtaining a guest role at the G7 were important steps in that direction. They offer an expansion of both regional and global ties and an involvement in discussions on the redefinition of international fora, but more can be done.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Multilateralism, Rivalry, and Middle Power
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

1439. Russia after Putin: How to rebuild the state

Author:
Anders Åslund and Leonid Gozman
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The new government’s first action should be to release all political prisoners and to establish all elementary freedoms of speech, media, assembly, organization, and religion. It should dissolve the Federal Security Service (FSB), the principal security agency of Russia, and dismiss all its employees and form a new judicial system, courts, as well as the general prosecutor’s office. Russia should abandon its presidential system and hold early founding elections at all levels soon after a democratic breakthrough.
Topic:
Security, Government, State, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1440. Priorities for US-Africa commercial policy in the Biden Administration

Author:
Aubrey Hruby
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With a renewed focus on multilateralism, President Joe Biden, in his first one hundred days, has actively been reengaging with traditional US allies and partners repeatedly sidelined by the Trump administration. African countries have been included in this effort. When addressing the African Union Summit of African presidents in February, he reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to partnering with African nations to address challenges including climate change and erosion of democratic institutions. Biden has gained widespread praise for supporting the appointment of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the first African head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), nominating officials who have deep experience in African markets to Cabinet positions, such as Linda Thomas-Greenfield as ambassador to the United Nations, and putting together a historically diverse government, including many senior members of the African diaspora. Building on this early progress, Biden has an opportunity to reset US-Africa policy by not only prioritizing it at a level unseen during the last four years, but also changing the long history of siloing Africa policy. The Biden administration should look to further integrate African nations into broader US foreign policy, acknowledging Africa’s increasing importance to US priorities and enhanced standing on the global stage. Doing so will allow the new administration to deepen commercial and people-to-people ties with African nations, benefiting US businesses, furthering US interests, and working to address global challenges, such as public health and climate change. This more multifaceted and nuanced engagement with African states will set a foundation for stronger US-Africa partnerships, support mutual economic growth, and contribute to strengthening US global leadership. While cooperation with African states is critical to regional stability and global security, this issue brief sets aside security policy and focuses on ways the Biden administration can strengthen its commercial policy and public diplomacy with African nations. This effort includes building on commercial policies started under the Trump administration, facilitating green growth, and deepening people-to-people ties. In doing so, Biden’s domestic priorities of promoting diversity and climate responsibility will be reflected in Africa policy and ensure US businesses can take advantage of increasing opportunity in African markets and remain competitive globally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Business, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

1441. A transatlantic agenda for homeland security and resilience beyond COVID-19

Author:
Anna Wieslander
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disclosed the importance of resilient power – a society’s capability to absorb unexpected major shocks, handle and adapt to these, and then, most importantly, bounce back. As the pandemic still rages, endurance has become a major challenge for individuals, institutions, companies, and societies. It emphasizes another dimension of resilience: it is not only about how fast society is able to bounce back and recover at a certain moment, but also how it can withstand repeated shocks over time. The pandemic also brought the notion of solidarity to the forefront and exposed the connection between strong resilience and solidarity in open societies. Solidarity was repeatedly tested within and between nations, as well as between different parts of society. Fragmentation and competition flourished amid weak resilience and discouraged tendencies toward cooperation, despite potential gains. To successfully handle modern challenges to homeland security and resilience, such as climate change and pandemics, there is no way around efficient cooperation. For resilience to be strong, it must be developed not only among states but also in partnership with the private sector, as resilience must be ensured for individuals, communities, private businesses, and public institutions, and at all levels of authority. Furthermore, the pandemic has heightened other threats to modern societies, including disinformation, cyber operations, attacks on election systems, and social media manipulation. Ultimately, these threats are targeted to undermine democracy itself. They differ in character, magnitude, and scope, but are often non-military. This new report, “A Transatlantic Agenda for Homeland Security and Resilience Beyond COVID-19”, highlights some of these modern challenges, which could be possible focus areas for transatlantic cooperation, as well as ideas for building and enhancing capabilities. This report is the result of a half-day online workshop held on January 28, 2021. This report aims to help shape a transatlantic agenda on homeland security and resilience that encompasses everything from policy and capabilities to future science and technology in a time when the transatlantic relationship is ideally positioned to be revitalized and deepened.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, European Union, Crisis Management, Resilience, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America

1442. Enhancing US-Japan cooperation on global supply chains

Author:
Miyeon Oh and James Hildebrand
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Mounting US-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to growing calls in the United States and among its allies and partners, including Japan, to address the vulnerabilities in global supply chains critical to national security and economic competitiveness. Strategic uncertainty has led stakeholders to pose the following questions. What role should government play, and to what extent can, or should, governments require firms to operate more in line with national security interests? How can firms manage short-term and long-term risks to balance national security requirements and commercial interests? How should trusted partners be defined, and what is a desirable allied and multilateral approach to enhancing security and resilience of global high-tech supply chains? With new administrations in both the United States and Japan, the two countries have an opportunity to consider these questions and rethink coordination of their efforts to establish secure and resilient supply chains. This issue brief analyzes recent developments in US and Japanese supply-chain policy, explores the importance of closer coordination through case studies of the semiconductor and rare-earth minerals industries, and provides a set of recommendations for the Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Yoshihide Suga administrations to enhance US-Japan cooperation in the years ahead. These recommendations include actions to operationalize the April 2021 US-Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement by creating a bilateral interagency Supply Chain Steering Committee that includes sector-specific working groups to enhance public-private-partnerships in high-technology industries, and by expanding bilateral supply-chain cooperation into multilateral efforts through flexible and informal frameworks.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Innovation, Trade, Defense Industry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1443. Hong Kong’s future on edge: Countering China’s national security law

Author:
Ash Jain, Joel Kesselbrenner, and Peter Mattis
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Over the past seventy-five years, the United States and its allies have constructed and defended a rules-based international system that has provided unprecedented levels of peace, prosperity, and freedom. In recent years, the system has come under increasing strain, as a new era of great power competition has emerged. Despite hopes that China would become a “responsible stakeholder” in a rules-based system, Beijing has grown increasingly assertive, especially under President Xi Jinping. Beijing’s more confrontational path poses a significant challenge to a rules-based system. The challenge presented by China is particularly acute in the context of Hong Kong, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has brashly violated an international treaty and curtailed democratic institutions and human rights. As the world enters an era of strategic competition with China, Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong should be a priority for policymakers in the United States and allied countries. This report addresses the importance of Hong Kong within the context of China’s broader challenge to the rules-based system and offers recommendations for how the United States and its allies can prevent a further erosion of democracy in Hong Kong and, over time, seek to restore it. It suggests that the United States and its allies still have available a range of pragmatic policy tools that can can be used to exert pressure and impose meaningful costs on Beijing. These should be implemented as part of a broader, comprehensive strategy to prevent China from undermining the rules-based system in the security, economic, and governance domains. On June 30, 2020, the CCP imposed a sweeping new National Security Law on Hong Kong, effectively giving Beijing direct control over the autonomous territory. Since then, China has acted to erode Hong Kong’s liberal traditions, in violation of Beijing’s treaty commitments under the Sino-British Joint Declaration. The National Security Law has for all practical purposes outlawed democratic activism, organizing, and speech. Over the past year, Beijing has cracked down on Hong Kong’s democratic institutions and thrown the pro-democracy movement into disarray. Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong is aimed at achieving several objectives. First, China’s leaders seek to maintain the legitimacy of the CCP in the face of a pro-democracy movement that it fears could spread to the mainland. Second, they seek to advance the unification of China by harmonizing the cultural, social, and economic aspects of life across the country, including Hong Kong. Third, the CCP aims to achieve a comprehensive modernization of China, while retaining the Party’s leadership, including by reaping economic benefits from the Greater Bay Area Integration Plan. Finally, China’s crackdown is aimed at stemming the advance of a liberal, democratic world order by pushing back on democratic norms that it views as antithetical to the Party and a danger to its efforts to modernize China on its own terms.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Human Rights, Politics, Sanctions, and Business
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Hong Kong

1444. Whither the Arabs: The end of the welfare state and the start of a journey into the unknown

Author:
Hani K. Findakly and Kevin A. Findakly
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Arab countries, rich and poor, large and small, are rapidly approaching a moment of reckoning. A confluence of anachronistic governance, economic mismanagement, and disruptive technology, which has changed the dynamics of both the supply and demand for hydrocarbon fuels and raw materials, is pushing the region to a tipping point. Together, these factors spell an end of the welfare state and an irreversible break in the social compact that has been in place for the past five decades. The COVID-19 pandemic is merely the canary in the coal mine that serves to expose the region’s problems and inject further uncertainty into its economic future. Neither future instability nor secular stagnation are foreordained for the region. In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative report, “Whither the Arabs: The End of the Welfare State and the Start of a Journey into the Unknown,” Dr. Hani K. Findakly and Mr. Kevin A. Findakly argue that a positive outcome is predicated on adopting a cogent new social compact with a strategy for an inclusive political, social, and economic system. The authors go on to outline three possible scenarios for the future of the region.
Topic:
Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

1445. Transatlantic tools: Harmonizing US and EU approaches to China

Author:
David Barkin and Agatha Kratz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Close cooperation between the United States and the European Union is essential if advanced economies are to develop effective responses to the array of challenges presented by China. Washington and Brussels share concerns regarding competitive distortions arising through the state’s role in the Chinese economy, the use of advanced technologies to repress ethnic minorities and fuel its military, and the spread of authoritarian influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, there has been a lack of coordination and cooperation in recent years between the US and EU when it comes to responding to China’s policies and behaviors. Washington’s focus on risks to US economic and national security contrasts with an emphasis in Brussels on ensuring reciprocity and leveling the economic playing field. But, with the transatlantic relationship back on a better footing under the Biden administration, new structures for transatlantic dialogue being put in place, and a greater focus on the Indo-Pacific in both Washington and Brussels, this paper argues there is now an opportunity for the United States and Europe to learn from each other and harmonize some of their China-related efforts.
Topic:
Human Rights, Markets, Sanctions, European Union, Regulation, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

1446. Axis of collusion: The fragile Putin-Xi partnership

Author:
Harley Balzer
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The close relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is driving what many Russian officials call a developing Sino-Russian alliance. Major achievements have resulted from what the two presidents can accomplish through a top-down approach. However, positive portrayals in official media and some cooperation in diplomatic and military realms have not been accompanied by economic and societal linkages that could produce “thick” connections. Differences over geostrategic, economic, and regional issues and in cultural values have caused some elites and social groups in both countries to express concerns about the growing costs of the partnership. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these problems, leading a growing number of Russian analysts to say that the Sino-Russian relationship has peaked.
Topic:
International Organization, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Economy, Trade, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

1447. Ukraine’s Policy Towards Turkey

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The current revival of Ukrainian-Turkish contacts stems from Ukraine’s efforts to win over Turkey as an economic and defence partner in the face of Russian aggression. Both countries share the common goal of limiting Russian domination in the Black Sea. Turkey supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and stands up for the Crimean Tatars, persecuted by Russia. Close bilateral relations may make Turkey—after the EU and the U.S.—one of Ukraine’s most important partners. However, the intensity of the political dialogue will depend on the state of Russian-Turkish relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

1448. Acceleration of Climate Policy and the Energy Transformation in Slovakia

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Eduard Heger government wants to increase the production of energy from renewable sources and nuclear energy. This is evidenced among others by the preparations for the commissioning of two new units of the Mochovce nuclear power plant. Although Visegrad Group states include pronouncements they plan to use nuclear power in their national energy mixes, the difference in those mixes limits the possibilities of formulating regional climate policy and results in a lack of coherence on the EU forum. Hydrogen fuel, the use of which is growing in Slovakia, also remains an untapped potential for regional cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Government, Nuclear Power, and European Union
Political Geography:
Central Europe and Slovakia

1449. Germany-U.S. Relations: A Return to the Strategic Partnership

Author:
Lidia Gibadło and Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since Joe Biden’s presidency began, Germany’s relationship with the United States has improved. The U.S. made significant concessions, primary among them agreeing to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline. This is a new opening for the U.S. in the bilateral relations and sets the foundations for the reconstruction of the strategic partnership with Germany that Biden sees as necessary to implement U.S. policy towards a post-Brexit Europe. However, the possible reluctance of the next German government to adopt a more confrontational policy towards China could be a challenge to that goal.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Nord Stream 2
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

1450. The Specificity of Hungarian-Israeli Relations

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz and Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s premiership has become one of Israel’s most important European partners. This is reflected in the diplomatic support for Israel by Hungary, mainly at the EU level. Close relations with Israel serve Hungary’s foreign and domestic policy goals and at the same time weaken the effectiveness of the EU’s Middle East policy. However, the new Israeli government may be less open to political cooperation with this country because of earlier criticism of Hungary on, for example, historical issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Hungary

1451. The Ukrainian Energy Sector at a Crossroads: Opportunities for Poland

Author:
Maciej Zaniewicz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Ukraine’s orientation towards the synchronisation of its energy system with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area (CESA) and the need to determine the future of nuclear energy has forced it to settle on an energy transformation strategy. One model may involve replacing nuclear and coal with renewable energy sources (RES), as advocated by Germany. However, a solution assuming the simultaneous development of nuclear, gas, and renewable energy would be more beneficial for Ukraine, and for Poland’s energy security. Poland may promote this solution in Ukraine in cooperation with France, the U.S., and the UK.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

1452. Reform of the European Court of Human Rights

Author:
Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Protocol No. 15 to the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR), which entered into force on 1 August, was to improve the functioning of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), including by accelerating the examination of cases. However, some of the changes made by it may have the opposite effect. The protocol does not solve the problem of overloading the ECtHR with incoming complaints. The reform should be thus continued by, for example, more effective resolution by states of systemic problems identified by the ECtHR.
Topic:
Reform, Courts, Jurisdiction, and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Europe

1453. EU Humanitarian Aid in Afghanistan: Needs and Challenges

Author:
Aleksandra Kozioł and Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban offensive in Afghanistan has deepened the humanitarian crisis in the country. Afghans are struggling now with forced displacement as well as a food and health crisis. The EU will increase its humanitarian aid, but its effectiveness will be limited by dangerous working conditions for NGOs. This requires an agreement with the Taliban to respect humanitarian law.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Taliban, NGOs, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and South Asia

1454. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Regional Security in Central Asia

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
From the perspective of Central Asian states, the potential for further destabilisation of Afghanistan is seen as a significant regional transnational threat. It would make these countries more susceptible to influence, primarily from Russia, which bases its policy in the region on military power. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan is already being used by Russia, China, and Turkey in propaganda as an example of the lack of American credibility, as well as that of European countries. This situation will limit the prospects for cooperation between the Central Asian republics and the U.S. and the EU in the future.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Destabilization, and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1455. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
Topic:
Taliban, Violent Extremism, Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, Mali, and Sahel

1456. Arab Gulf States and the Situation in Afghanistan

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Arab state authorities are refraining from making unequivocal declarations about the future of relations with Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. The priority of the Arab leadership in the Persian Gulf will be to prevent the destabilisation of Afghanistan and to influence the Afghan government policy towards terrorist organisations. Given the convergence of EU and Arab state goals related to countering the threat of terrorism in the country, the Union could include them in the announced regional platform for cooperation on Afghanistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Terrorism, Taliban, and European Union
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

1457. Vaccine Diplomacy: A Tool in the Rivalry for Influence in Latin America

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The uneven access to COVID-19 vaccines in Latin American countries has resulted in a widely varied pace of immunisation. The region has relied mainly on direct purchases from China and Russia, among others, the global COVAX initiative, and donations from the U.S. and other countries. Russia, China, and the U.S. in particular are using this “vaccine diplomacy” to boost their own political and economic influence in Latin America. The EU has been trying to position itself against that rivalry, for example, through significant funding for vaccine access and distribution initiatives. These efforts require, however, more efficient promotion of the Union’s engagement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Latin America, and United States of America

1458. A Year Later: Status and Perspectives on Israeli-Arab Normalisation

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Israeli-Arab normalisation launched in August 2020 has proved to be a stable process so far. Relations are deepened by the interest of the parties despite changing conditions (e.g., the new government in Israel and the U.S.) or the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The future of the process remains dependent on U.S. policy towards the region and the scale of support for the new Israeli government.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1459. The EU's Plans to Reduce Methane Emissions in the Energy Sector

Author:
Zuzanna Nowack
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Later this year, the European Commission (EC) will present draft legislation aimed at increasing the standards of monitoring ,reporting, and leak detection of methane emissions. Although there is a consensus in the EU regarding the need to reduce emissions of this second-most-harmful greenhouse gas after CO2, the implementation of the EC’s methane strategy and its expected costs are of concern to energy companies, including Polish ones. The EC will have to consider implementing a system of compensation and incentives to mitigate the effects of the proposed reforms.
Topic:
European Union, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

1460. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć and Karol Wasilewski
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The leaders of Turkey and Armenia announce an attempt to establish diplomatic relations and open borders. Success would be beneficial for both countries: it would strengthen Turkey's influence in the Caucasus, and it would enable Armenia to break the regional isolation. However, success remains unlikely due to nationalist sentiment in both countries and the possibility of Russia and Azerbaijan sabotaging the talks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, and Mediterranean

1461. Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan: Consequences for NATO

Author:
Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will not change NATO’s overall threat perception, which will be shaped mainly by the military threat from Russia, challenges related to the rise of China, and instability in Europe’s neighbourhood. Criticism of NATO may, however, influence discussions on a new strategy, which should facilitate adaptation of the Alliance to new threat assessment. There will be increased pressure on the development of crisis-response capabilities within the coalition of the willing and the European Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Taliban, and European Union
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, and South Asia

1462. Ambitious Plans and Economic Pragmatism - China in the Face of Climate Change

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China’s policy on climate change mainly serves to improve its international image, increase the competitiveness of its economy, and strengthen the legitimacy of the Communist Party’s (CPC) power. China’s activities include the development of green technologies and the announcement of a plan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by around 2030. However, the plans are unevenly implemented, sometimes even contrary to expectations, as evidenced by the construction of new coal-fired power plants. The problem of satisfying the country’s energy needs while protecting the environment means that the EU and the U.S. should treat China’s pro-climate declarations with caution.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Green Technology, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1463. The Fall of Afghanistan: The Biden Administration's First Crisis

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan sparked the first major crisis of confidence in President Joe Biden and his administration, both in the U.S. and internationally. It has affected the administration’s relations with Democrats in Congress, whose confidence in the president has weakened. This narrows the president’s freedom to conduct foreign policy. At the same time, the way the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan will be used by its rivals to undermine American guarantees to Allies and the U.S. standing in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

1464. Progress of the Debate on Sustainable Farming in the EU

Author:
Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation. In October, the European Parliament approved the goals set by the European Commission (EC) in the Farm to Fork Strategy. This boosted the effort to reduce the negative effects of agriculture on the climate and environment. The details of the strategy must, however, still be negotiated, with the majority of Member States less enthusiastic about the planned reforms than MEPs. Certain sectors of the agri-food industry are striving to slow the transformation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Europe

1465. North Korea's Foreign Policy Towards South Korea and the U.S.

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In recent months, North Korea has intensified missile tests, while signalling the possibility of resuming talks with South Korea and the U.S. These signals of openness to dialogue indicate that North Korea wants the next South Korean president, who will be elected in March 2022, to be favourable to the inter-Korean dialogue. In turn, the demonstration of military capabilities serves to strengthen North Korea’s position ahead of possible negotiations with the U.S. to convince it to ease sanctions. The difficult domestic situation will not persuade North Korea to take a more conciliatory stance in the talks, however.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Military
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

1466. Ukraine's Foreign Policy Strategy

Author:
Maria Piechowska
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, approved in August this year the first Foreign Policy Strategy in the country’s history. According to the document, Ukraine’s main goal is membership in the EU and NATO and an end to the conflict with Russia. Like in the National Security Strategy, Ukraine included Poland in the second group of strategic partners. Cooperation with Poland is to be deepened and developed, not only bilaterally but also as part of multilateral formats in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Volodymyr Zelensky
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1467. Belarus in Turkey's Foreign Policy

Author:
Karol Wasilewski
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Turkey’s actions towards Belarus show that the country plays a greater role in Turkish foreign policy than bilateral relations might suggest. It would be beneficial for Turkey’s Western allies, including Poland, to take this factor into account in the dialogue with their Turkish partner on the political use of the migration through the Belarusian-Polish border by Alexander Lukashenka’s regime and on the political situation in Belarus.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Belarus

1468. Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Author:
Agnieszka Legucka and Filip Bryjka
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.
Topic:
NATO, Migration, Borders, Propaganda, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Belarus

1469. The Course of the Energy Transition in Latin America

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek and Zuzanna Nowak
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The energy transition in Latin American countries is increasingly important for their economic development and the fight against climate change. These states want to use their potential of renewable energy sources (RES) and raw materials such as lithium deposits to attract investments and increase their participation in global supply chains building the low-carbon economy. The EU and its Member States—Germany in particular—have been more and more involved in cooperation with the region in these areas. Poland can also benefit, for example, through the exchange of experience and the engagement of Polish companies.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Latin America

1470. Japan's Foreign Policy Under Kishida

Author:
Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The government of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, formed on 10 November, will continue the foreign policy of his predecessors Abe Shinzō and Suga Yoshihide. In response to China’s regional policy, Japan intends to develop its military potential and deepen cooperation with the U.S. and other partners, including European, in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, Kishida will strive for stable relations with China and trade liberalisation in the region out of Japan’s own economic interest. The new government’s focus on the country’s internal socioeconomic problems will be conducive to maintaining the current course in foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Economy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

1471. Protection of Digital Platform Workers in the EU

Author:
Marta Makowska
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The European Commission (EC) has proposed a directive that provides protection of people performing work for digital platforms, especially in professions that do not require specialist qualifications. If the proposal is accepted in the shape presented by the EC, it will be a breakthrough solution on a global scale that adjusts labour law to the challenges of the digital economy. It will also strengthen the EU’s position in relations with platforms.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, European Commission, and Digital Platform Workers
Political Geography:
Europe

1472. "Next Generation EU" Cities: Local Communities in a Post-Pandemic Future

Author:
Anna Lisa Boni and Tobia Zevi
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
As the world enters a new year, the Covid-19 pandemic is still upsetting our daily lives. And as 75% of EU citizens live in urban areas, cities are the most prominent stage both for responding to the health crisis, and for seizing opportunities to recover and move forward. Meanwhile, in 2020, EU countries agreed to Next Generation EU, a €750 billion recovery package that represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity. This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and Eurocities, argues that cities should be given more say over how post-pandemic national recovery plans pan out between here and 2026, when all projects are supposed to be wrapping up. Indeed, the success of the EU recovery plans will hinge upon what cities do, or they don’t do over the next five years. How are cities rethinking their role within the “twin” green and digital transitions? How can they achieve gender parity, reduce inequalities, and preserve a vibrant cultural life?
Topic:
European Union, Cities, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

1473. Europe and Africa. The Long Search for Common Ground

Author:
Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Ayear and a half after the new Strategy with Africa proposed by the European Commission was made public, the new partnership between the two continents is still being defined. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic with Africa’s first economic recession in 25 years and a sharp rise in poverty and debt has created new challenges for the two continents’ agenda, highlighting new gaps to address on the way forward. With the European Union-African Union summit scheduled for February 2022, the definition of the new partnership is once again gathering momentum, while both sides are still trying to define common positions. Will these two “natural partners” be able to tackle the most urgent challenges and turn them into opportunities for collaboration and engagement? What are the priority issues, and which ones are potentially most divisive?
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, African Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1474. Institutionalised (In)Security: Exploring the MENA Region’s Governance Crises

Author:
Andrea Cellino and Eleanore Ardemagni
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
After a decade of popular uprisings and civil wars, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is experiencing a deep governance crisis. The transformation, weakening or even the collapse of state institutions has changed the security framework, with direct implications for processes of Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSG/R). This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and DCAF, explores multiple governance crises in the MENA region, providing case studies on Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen. How can we effectively bring about meaningful SSG/R in hybrid security orders? In which way is “institutionalised insecurity” challenging traditional patterns of governance in vulnerable settings?
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Governance, Crisis Management, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Tunisia

1475. North Africa 2030: What the Future Holds for the Region

Author:
Karim Mezran and Armando Sanguini
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
More than ten years after the “Arab Spring”, the turmoil that swept across North Africa has taken many forms. But the Arab uprisings have also brought about a surprising amount of “more of the same”, as the problems that plagued the region have not gone away. This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and the Atlantic Council, looks at the future of the region by asking: what will North Africa be in 2030? Which direction could the region as a whole, and specific countries, take? And what are the implications for Europe and the US?
Topic:
Development, Arab Spring, Future, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
North Africa

1476. The Global Quest for Sustainability: The Role of Green Infrastructure in a Post-Pandemic World

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the pandemic, global demand for infrastructure is booming. National plans around the world show that infrastructure is likely to provide the backbone for a resurgence in public expenditure, and to support growth in economies badly hit by the pandemic. As all the biggest powers and blocs (the EU, the US, China, and Japan) have recently announced their plans for climate or carbon neutrality, the room and need for green and sustainable infrastucture are greatly expanding. Decarbonisation and digitalisation will be underpinning this latest investment drive in infrastructure, with sustainability and ESG principles at its core. However, infrastructure expenditure will not come without risk: after the pandemic, the world will be left with the highest levels of public and private debt since World War II, and the sustainability of key investment decisions must be carefully evaluated. How to foster quality and sustainable infrastructure investment? What role for the private sector? What future for sustainable mobility? What kind of policies will countries adopt to reach carbon neutrality?
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

1477. China After Covid-19: Economic Revival and Challenges to the World

Author:
Alessia Amighini
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic that has rocked China since December 2019 has posed a gruelling test for the resilience of the country’s national economy. Now, as China emerges from its Covid-induced "recession", it feels like the worst is behind it. How did China manage to come out almost unscathed from the worst crisis in over a century? This Report examines how China designed and implemented its post-Covid recovery strategy, focussing on both the internal and external challenges the country had to face over the short- and medium-run. The book offers a comprehensive argument suggesting that, despite China having lost economic and political capital during the crisis, Beijing seems to have been strengthened by the “pandemic test”, thus becoming an even more challenging “partner, competitor and rival” for Western countries.
Topic:
Economy, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1478. Influence for hire. The Asia-Pacific’s online shadow economy

Author:
Jacob Wallis, Ariel Bogle, Albert Zhang, and Hillary Mansour
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
It’s not just nation-states that interfere in elections and manipulate political discourse. A range of commercial services increasingly engage in such activities, operating in a shadow online influence-for-hire economy that spans from content farms through to high-end PR agencies. There’s growing evidence of states using commercial influence-for-hire networks. The Oxford Internet Institute found 48 instances of states working with influence-for-hire firms in 2019–20, an increase from 21 in 2017–18 and nine in 2016–17. There’s a distinction between legitimate, disclosed political campaigning and government advertising campaigns, on the one hand, and efforts by state actors to covertly manipulate the public opinion of domestic populations or citizens of other countries using inauthentic social media activity, on the other. The use of covert, inauthentic, outsourced online influence is also problematic as it degrades the quality of the public sphere in which citizens must make informed political choices and decisions. The Asia–Pacific region contains many states in different stages of democratisation. Many have transitioned to democratic forms of governance from authoritarian regimes. Some have weak political institutions, limitations on independent media and fragile civil societies. The rapid rate of digital penetration in the region layered over that political context leaves populations vulnerable to online manipulation. In fragile democratic contexts, the prevalence of influence-for-hire operations and their leverage by agents of the state is particularly problematic, given the power imbalance between citizens and the state. A surplus of cheap digital labour makes the Asia–Pacific a focus for operators in this economy, and this report examines the regional influence-for-hire marketplace using case studies of online manipulation in the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and Australia. Governments and other entities in the region contract such services to target and influence their own populations in ways that aren’t transparent and that may inhibit freedom of political expression by drowning out dissenting voices. Several governments have introduced anti-fake-news legislation that has the potential to inhibit civic discourse by limiting popular political dissent or constraining the independence of the media from the state. These trends risk damaging the quality of civic engagement in the region’s emerging democracies.
Topic:
Elections, Labor Market, and Shadow Economy
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

1479. New beginnings: Rethinking business and trade in an era of strategic clarity and rolling disruption

Author:
John Coyne, Gill Savage, and Michael Shoebridge
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This special report considers the relationship between our business and trade positioning in the context of the impacts of Covid, natural disasters and the actions of coercive trading partners. Global economic integration has enabled the spread of ideas, products, people and investment at never before seen speed. International free trade has been a goal of policy-makers and academics for generations, allowing and fostering innovation and growth. We saw the mechanism shudder in 2008 when the movement of money faltered; the disruption brought about by COVID-19 has seen a much more multi-dimensional failure of the systems by which we share and move. The unstoppable conveyor belt of our global supply chain has ground to a halt. This time, what will we learn? ASPI’s latest research identifies factors that have led to the erosion of Australia’s policy and planning capacity, while detailing the strengths of our national responses to recent crises. The authors recommend an overhaul of our current business and trade policy settings, with a view to building an ‘agenda that invests in what we’re good at and what we need, values what we have and builds the future we want.’ The authors examine the vulnerabilities in Australia’s national security, resilience and sovereignty in relation to supply chains and the intersection of the corporate sector and government. To protect Australia’s business interests and national sovereignty, the report highlights recent paradigm shifts in geopolitics, whereby economic and trade priorities are increasingly relevant to the national security discussion.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Business, Trade, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Australia and Global Focus

1480. Iron ore futures: possible paths for Australia’s biggest trade with China

Author:
David Uren
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The iron ore market is wrong-footing forecasters again, as it has throughout the last 20 years. Nobody expected the iron ore price to surpass US$200 a tonne as it did in May and no one predicted it would then plunge to less than US$100 as it has this week. This report argues that Australia’s troubled relationship with China will be influenced by which path the iron ore market takes over the medium term. China’s authorities are determined to reduce their dependence on Australian iron ore, both by seeking alternative supplies and by capping their steel production. However, China has been trying and failing to curb its steel production for the past five years, with many local governments ignoring central orders. In just the first six months of this year, 18 new blast furnaces capable of producing as much steel as Germany’s entire output were approved. Although China will never be able to rid itself entirely of the need for Australian supplies, this report warns that if an iron ore glut emerges, whether by Chinese government design or because of an economic downturn, the commodity may join the list of other Australian exports subject to Chinese coercion. The report also highlights that the effort to reduce its dependence on Australia will come at considerable cost to China. Australia is by far the cheapest and closest source of high-quality iron ore for China’s mills.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Natural Resources, Mining, and Trade
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1481. Economic coercion in Indo-Pacific island states: Building resilience

Author:
Richard Herr and David Brewster
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Indo-Pacific island states face diverse challenges as they grapple with their own unique vulnerabilities to the geopolitical consequences of growing strategic competition in the region. This report explores the vulnerability of island states to economic coercion and the risks they face in navigating the growing economic power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In this report, the authors examine four perceived examples of economic coercion within the region that challenge the Quad’s vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. China’s increasing interest in the island states of the Indo-Pacific has led to concern that the imbalance in those relationships is so large that both domestic and broader regional stability are at risk. This report offers a number of policy recommendations to protect Indo-Pacific island states from economic coercion, including: Island states must be better invested in the rules-based international economic order; Establishing codes of conduct to limit economic duress, limit undue economic influence and strengthen the rules-based international system; Strengthening government institutions so they can resist economic coercion; International partners should work with Indo-Pacific island states to help strengthen the ability of local businesses to take collective action against economic coercion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

1482. Delivering a stronger Navy, faster

Author:
Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Serious risks are being realised in the Royal Australian Navy’s twin transitions in its surface combatant and submarine fleets. As Australia’s strategic circumstances become more dangerous, Defence needs to adopt hedging measures to actively address the capability risks in its acquisition plans. The government’s recent announcement regarding the acquisition of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) is about addressing capability risk in the long term, but with delivery of the first future submarine now delayed probably to the late 2030s, in the short to medium term the proposal exacerbates those risks.1 To address those risks, this paper details an approach that will: deliver valuable additional maritime capability to the Navy significantly earlier than the current plan; sustain, and indeed grow, the workforce that will be essential to our long-term ship and submarine plans; develop the industrial ecosystem needed for naval construction in Adelaide and nationally; and provide a timely return on the funding that the Australian government has already planned to invest in naval capability this decade without requiring additional funding.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Australia

1483. Sliding-door moments: ANZUS and the Blue Pacific

Author:
Richard Herr and Anthony Bergin
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The report examines some key ‘sliding-door’ moments that have shaped the trajectory of ANZUS in the Pacific Island region over seven decades, to reach the current confused state within the alliance regarding its aims in the Pacific Islands. Our Pacific neighbours recognise that their security is tied up with the region’s new and complex geopolitical environment and they have made it clear that they have no wish to be a catspaw in any strategic rivalries. The report argues that ANZUS has not been fully functional as an alliance for several decades. If its three members are not unified on Pacific Island regional security, the alliance can scarcely advance the Islands concerns more widely. For these reasons, the report recommends that ANZUS strengthen its internal machinery by finding the accommodation needed to resume ANZUS Council Meetings. It also recommends using the Treaty’s Article VIII provisions to incorporate supportive extra-regional powers into an ‘ANZUS Plus’ While recognising that ANZUS isn’t a humanitarian aid agency, as co-author Dr Anthony Bergin notes, “we can’t ignore the security importance of regional infrastructure.” The report also recommends that the ANZUS allies act proactively through national aid programmes to identify and protect these interests in partnership with the Island states’ public and private sectors to prevent key assets becoming strategic bones of contention.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, ANZUS, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

1484. Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s crisis: And the implications for Australia

Author:
Huong Le Thu, David Engel, and Hillary Mansour
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The rapidly unfolding Myanmar crisis is presenting Southeast Asia with one of its most severe security and stability threats in the past three decades. While the region is certainly familiar with military coups and violent changes of government, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar carries risks far more acute than previous coups d’etat in the region. One of them is the risk to the sustained modus operandi of the region’s key institution—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The outcome of ASEAN’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is consequential not only for the Myanmar people, but also for the association’s ability to credibly lead efforts to preserve peace and security in the region into the future. In this report, we assess the security situation in Myanmar, ASEAN’s collective response and the individual roles of key ASEAN member states in the mediating process. We focus on the effect that the Myanmar crisis has on the overall ASEAN political and security situation, and highlight Indonesia’s leadership, and limitations, in the process. We also detail the legal instruments and responsibility of ASEAN—in the form of the ASEAN Charter—to uphold the rule of law. The report concludes with some policy implications for the wider region, particularly Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Coup, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Australia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

1485. The Sydney Dialogue: Playbook

Author:
Fergus Hanson, Danielle Cave, and Madeleine Nyst
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Major advances in technology have always been disruptive. But when they occur against a backdrop of great power competition, the stable development and deployment of these technologies becomes fraught. Few have grasped the enormity of the disruption coming our way as more and more new technologies – from increasingly sophisticated surveillance to quantum and biotechnologies – are deployed across the world. While governments grapple with foreseeing the full impacts and setting policy direction, there’s a growing realisation that emerging and critical technologies will be extraordinarily important for societies, economies and national security. We launched The Sydney Dialogue to support a more stable roll-out of the next wave of transformational technologies. It is a forum allowing for frank debate about the rapidly changing strategic landscape, and a space for governments, business and civil society to come together to focus on solutions, cooperation and policy options. The Sydney Dialogue came about because we saw big gaps in forums on technology, especially in the Indo-Pacific. There were industry events that showcased the latest technical advances and products, but they tended to eschew policy debates, and did not encompass government and civil society. There were important government multilateral discussion and policymaking forums, but these usually lagged well behind technological advances, and because they were primarily for governments, key global players – including those making the technology – weren’t part of the discussion. And there were excellent civil society initiatives, but these often focused on individual topics that were only one piece of a larger puzzle. Few of these initiatives focused on or resonated in the Indo-Pacific – the region that incubates much of the world’s technological innovation and has become a hotbed of strategic technological competition. These gaps drove us towards a dynamic where all the key actors were speaking past one another, while rarely all being in the same room. Tech companies are developing and deploying products that are revolutionary and hugely disruptive. A decade later, governments are scrambling to retrospectively legislate to address issues they did not foresee, and civil society is critiquing from the sidelines. Right now, three major problems must be addressed to ensure the stable development of advanced technologies. First, there’s the large lag between the deployment of new technologies and regulation governing them. With social media, this lag was about a decade. As we’ve seen, this doesn’t lead to good outcomes for individuals, or for societies. Second, there’s a delay between states’ use of new technologies and their consideration of the ethical questions raised by its use. Examples of this can be seen in the global surveillance industry, which has allowed its products to support some of the most egregious human rights abuses of our times. Third, a tense relationship between governments and technology companies is playing out around the world. The negative dynamic that has taken hold is hindering progress and genuine cooperation, leaving democracies at risk of being left behind. The Sydney Dialogue seeks to fill a gap and contribute towards these big challenges. By bringing world leaders, tech company CEOs and the world’s top civil society voices together for an annual dialogue, we hope the roll-out of the next wave of revolutionary technologies over the coming decade can be better managed. This collection of striking essays from some of the world’s top strategic thinkers from across business, government and civil society is a fitting way to start this dialogue. It explores timely debates at the forefront of technology and examines points of crisis and tension in the nexus of society, government and technology. Crucially, it offers innovative ideas to solve these challenges and bring about a brighter, fairer Indo-Pacific. The following pieces bring us all a much-needed dose of optimism and show that in many cases, the solutions already exist – we just need to work together to bring them to life.
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Economy, Surveillance, and Society
Political Geography:
Australia and Global Focus

1486. Collaborative and agile. Intelligence community collaboration insights from the United Kingdom and the United States

Author:
Michael Shoebridge, John Coyne, and Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The central aim of this report is to generate insights from the US and UK intelligence communities’ collaboration efforts. It identifies insights so that members of Australia’s national intelligence community, including the ONI, can use them to enhance the community’s collaboration and agility for the purpose of giving Australian decision-makers an insight edge over others. We acknowledge that agencies must contextualise those insights to Australia’s specific circumstances, and we’ve sought to do some of that in this report. The report isn’t intended as an academic think piece but as a guide-and goad-to actions that can advance and protect Australia’s wellbeing, prosperity and security. This report doesn’t seek to second-guess the internal insights that it explores. Instead, it takes an external perspective, informed by experience in relevant agencies and by perspectives from intelligence-community partners and analysts in the UK and the US.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, National Security, and Collaboration
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and United States of America

1487. What is AUKUS and what is it not?

Author:
Michael Shoebridge
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
What IS the new AUKUS partnership between the US, the UK and Australia? How does it fit with the Quad, ASEAN and other new forums like the government-tech Sydney Dialogue? This new ASPI Insight sets out what AUKUS is—a technology accelerator that’s’ about shifting the military balance in the Indo Pacific. Just as importantly, it sets out what AUKUS it isn’t, to reset some of the discussion that has made some assumptions here. AUKUS isn’t a new alliance structure, a competitor to the Quad between Australia, India, Japan and the US, or a signal of decreased commitment to ASEAN forums by the AUKUS members. And the Insight proposes some focus areas for implementation of this new ‘minilateral’ technology accelerator, including having a single empowered person in each nation charged with implementation and ‘obstacle busting’. This is to break through the institutional, political and corporate permafrost that has prevented such rapid technological adoption by our militaries in recent decades. As is the case with James Miller in the US, this person should report to their national leader, not from inside the defence bureaucracies of the three nations. On purpose and urgency, the report identifies a simple performance metric for AUKUS implementers over the next three years. On 20 January 2025, when the Australian prime minister calls whoever is the US president on that day, AUKUS has become such a successful piece of the furniture, with tangible results that have generated broad institutional, political and corporate support that, regardless of how warm or testy this leaders’ phone call is (think Turnbull-Trump in January 2016), AUKUS’s momentum continues.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Alliance, AUKUS, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1488. Implementing Australia’s nuclear submarine program

Author:
Andrew Nicholls, Jackson Dowie, and Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On 16 September 2021, the Australian Government announced that it would acquire a nuclear-powered submarine (SSN) capability with support from the UK and the US as the first measure of business under the AUKUS technology sharing partnership. At the same time, it announced that it had established the Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce, which would devote 18 months to determining the ‘optimal pathway’ to establishing this new capability. The taskforce has its work cut out for it, and the signing of an initial nuclear information sharing agreement only two months after AUKUS was announced suggests things are moving fast. Nevertheless this new enterprise will be a massive undertaking and probably the largest and most complex endeavour Australia has embarked upon. The challenges, costs and risks will be enormous. It’s likely to be at least two decades and tens of billions of dollars in sunk costs before Australia has a useful nuclear-powered military capability. Many commentators have suggested that the work of the taskforce is primarily about making a recommendation on the choice of submarine—either the US Virginia class or the UK Astute class. That’s misleading on two counts. First, the most important decision isn’t so much about the submarine, but about the strategic partner most able to work with us on our new SSN capability. Second, Australia will need to make many choices—about the strategic partner, about the submarine design, about the build strategy, about schedule, and more. Those choices will involve hard prioritisation decisions about what’s most important. Is it capability, schedule, Australian industry content, or something else? This report examines the decision space available to the government. The most important decision is the choice of our primary strategic partner. While both the US and the UK will need to provide us with assistance regardless of which submarine design we choose, there’s no point picking a boat if its parent nation doesn’t have the capacity to assist us with all of the fundamental inputs to capability needed to deliver military effects, or its industrial base doesn’t have the capacity to deliver. While we shouldn’t pre-empt the work of the taskforce, initial analysis suggests that the US has more capacity to assist us. Even once we choose a partner, we still have some difficult choices about the submarine design. Do we prioritise schedule and build our partner’s current design, with the result that we’re left with an orphaned and outdated fleet? Do we wait to get into step with our partner’s next class, exacerbating the risk of a capability gap? Or do we start with the current design and transition later to the partner’s future design, with the result that we have multiple classes of boat in our small fleet? Another area of choice is the amount of modification we do to the design. While some modifications will be necessary due to Australia’s regulatory and safety regimes—unless we recognise our partner’s regulatory approaches as fit for purpose and accommodate ours to theirs—others will be discretionary. Every effort must be made to limit the changes, whether they’re motivated by capability or Australian industry content, as every change drives cost and schedule risk regardless of how well intentioned it is. A fundamental choice is the build strategy. The government has stated that the SSNs will be built in Adelaide; however, it hasn’t committed to a continuous build. A continuous-build approach (one driven by a schedule designed to replace the first boat after around 30 years with no break in production) is appealing to Australian industry and current and future workers but would face many challenges—boats would be delivered on an inefficient three- or even four-year drumbeat, driving up cost and increasing the capability gap. Alternatively, an ‘economic’ approach that focused on the most efficient possible approach would deliver capability faster but require massive annual spending and produce the prospect of a ‘valley of death’ at the end of production. Either approach replicates a nuclear-submarine production capability in Australia as our own sovereign cottage-industry version of what the UK and the US already have. Underpinning all of those choices is the issue of schedule. We’re facing the looming spectre of a submarine capability gap as the Collins-class fleet ages out. The government’s stated schedule, delivering at least the first boat by the late 2030s, is feasible, if optimistic, if we build all the boats in Australia. But that may be too late to avoid a capability gap. An alternative that could accelerate delivery would be to open up the aperture of what ‘built in Adelaide’ should look like. One approach we consider is to build the initial boats overseas to accelerate delivery but also to train Australian workers on a mature production line to avoid a ‘cold start’ to local production. But there are also options that approach this enterprise as the embodiment of our AUKUS and alliance partnerships rather than as a large, but traditional, construction project. This could involve a ‘JSF’ (Joint Strike Fighter) approach of feeding components into a joint submarine enterprise that Australia enters with our primary enterprise partner. Such a joint enterprise would span more than just construction and enable Australia to be a ‘first line’ sustainment hub for our AUKUS partners’ submarines as well as for our own. When we consider that just the maintenance of Australia’s SSNs will be likely to require more workforce than the Attack-class build and Collins-class full-cycle dockings combined, there are ways to deliver submarines faster, sustain sovereign capability, contribute to our partnerships and still create jobs that don’t involve assembling submarines here. And this can’t be stated clearly or often enough: successful transition isn’t just about delivering boats but all of the elements of the capability. So, the choice of boat and build approaches aren’t just matters of capability or industry but must be informed by broader inputs to capability. Perhaps the most important of those is the challenge of how the Navy ramps up its uniformed workforce; solving that problem is just as crucial as delivering boats on time. Again, AUKUS has much to offer here. Finally, we’ve provided an estimate of the cost of the enterprise. Such an exercise is inherently hazardous at this stage of the process, with so many assumptions still open and untested. The government has been open in stating that the SSN program will cost more than the Attack-class program, which would have cost around $56–57 billion in current-day constant dollars. We agree: at an absolute minimum, an eight-boat SSN program will cost around $70 billion constant (or $116 billion in out-turned dollars, which account for inflation). However, it’s highly likely that it will cost substantially more once the cost drivers are more clearly understood. Those include both the US and UK moving to bigger submarine designs, our choice of build strategy, and the broader support system and infrastructure needed to operate nuclear submarines. To channel Donald Rumsfeld, there are things we know we don’t know, and things we don’t know we don’t know; both will drive up the estimate.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
Political Geography:
Australia

1489. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 4

Author:
John Coyne
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The 27 essays in the collection demonstrate that Australia’s north—that great sweep of territory from Rockhampton in the east to Onslow in the west, taking in Townsville, Bamaga, Darwin and Broome—is about a whole lot more than even what makes its way into the national debate (borders, quarantine facilities, mining, agricultural and energy projects, and small but key defence facilities). Between them, the authors of this volume cover proposals for an Indigenous civil defence force to work domestically and in our near region, the opportunities for processing critical minerals and producing rare-earth magnets, a broader way of thinking about and doing nation-building that gets beyond waiting for one big first-mover investor or entrepreneur before anything happens, and, of course, the ways that Australia can better use this huge chunk of the globe’s strategic geography—along with key partners like Japan and the United States. As thinkers who understand the austere environment of our north, the authors are all distinguished by a sense of opportunity, optimism and even that much-maligned, now neglected word ‘vision’—which history shows is what’s needed to advance the development and prosperity of the north of our continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Natural Resources, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

1490. Strategic Trade Controls in Southeast Asia: A Pandemic Update

Author:
Crystal Pryor and Ellise Fujii
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Pacific Forum, with support from the US State Department’s Export Control and Related Border Security Program, held a virtual Seminar on Strategic Trade Controls in Southeast Asia on July 27-28, and August 5-6, 2020 via Zoom. Over 90 people from the Indo-Pacific region representing relevant government departments and ministries, private sector, industry associations, academia, and civil society organizations joined the seminar. Following the conference, several experts in attendance were invited to submit short analytical commentaries for compilation into this volume. Key themes from this conference, along with a summary of each paper contribution, are outlined below. The seminar focused on four substantive topics: (1) the adoption of Strategic Trade Controls (STCs) for nonproliferation and internal security; (2) post-COVID-19 supply chains and trade facilitation; (3) ASEAN and STC; (4) the World Customs Organization, STC, and the exploration of maturity models. Following presentations and discussions on these topics, representatives from several Southeast Asian countries—Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Indonesia—offered updates on the adoption of STC in their respective jurisdictions. Panelists discussed the uneven STC implementation within the Southeast Asian region as evidenced by Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand’s recent adoption or calibration of regulations while others, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Brunei have been slower to implement a more robust system. The region’s history of non-alignment, past experience with export controls as a coercive mechanism, prioritization of economic growth, and the view that STC can be used for technological denial fuels skepticism. ASEAN is a late entrant to the development of free trade zones and regional economic integration. Although it seeks to attract international investment, relaxed oversight, susceptibility to smuggling, and a lack of transparency inhibit growth. Some participants suggested connecting STC with the World Customs Organization Authorized Economic Operator scheme as it can exist without a national STC system already in place.
Topic:
Security, Nonproliferation, Trade, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

1491. Strengthening Regional Energy Governance in the Mekong Subregion

Author:
Chen-Sheng Hong
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This paper explores the energy trilemma problems in the Mekong subregion and explains the necessity for regional energy governance. The current governmental cooperative mechanisms are an ineffective approach to regional energy governance in the Mekong subregion and should thus be strengthened. Countries of the Mekong subregion are facing the following energy trilemma: energy security, energy poverty, and environmental sustainability problems. This paper argues that regional energy governance is needed in the Mekong subregion because the energy trilemma has transboundary externalities on the Mekong ecosystem and requires regional cooperation to be managed effectively. Effective regional energy governance is based on three components: coordination,general norms, and consideration of the regional context. The existing mechanisms for governance in the subregion are lacking these elements. This paper concludes with three policy recommendations. First, it is necessary to enhance coordination among the subregional mechanisms. By exploring mutual benefits to raise incentives for cooperation and by seeking third-party engagement, more effective coordination may be realized. Also, information sharing may be a way to enhance the mechanisms’ transparency and improve coordination. Strengthened information sharing will enable other subregional mechanisms to understand the scale of the mechanisms’ proposed investments and their impact on the whole subregion, as well as provide potential opportunities for cooperation. Second, it is essential to develop norms and standards for the optimal management of natural resources for energy-related activities. Developing norms and standards may keep nations from choosing norms that benefit themselves but not the whole subregion. Finally, considering the context of the region is important, especially whether the actors share a largely homogeneous ecosystem. If actors in a geographical space share a largely homogeneous ecosystem, considering the negative impacts of transboundary externalities, they will be more willing to make compromises and cooperate to manage the energy trilemma. This paper assesses the engagement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and indicates that the lack of sharing a largely homogeneous ecosystem between mainland Southeast Asia and maritime Southeast Asia has weakened ASEAN engagement in solving the energy trilemma in the Mekong subregion. However, ASEAN should still increase its participation in the Mekong subregion’s energy sector. This would complement its efforts to push forward regional power integration plans such as the “ASEAN Power Grid,” “ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint,” and “ASEAN Master Plan 2025.”
Topic:
Security, Poverty, Governance, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1492. Advancing a Rules-based Maritime Order in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Jeffrey Ordaniel and John Bradford
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Authors of this volume participated in the Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Expert Working Group’s 2021 workshop that took place, virtually on March 23-24. The working group, composed of esteemed international security scholars and maritime experts from Japan, the United States, and other Indo-Pacific states, was formed to promote effective U.S.-Japan cooperation on maritime security issues in the region through rigorous research on various legal interpretations, national policies, and cooperative frameworks to understand what is driving regional maritime tensions and what can be done to reduce those tensions. The workshop’s goal is to help generate sound, pragmatic and actionable policy solutions for the United States, Japan, and the wider region, and to ensure that the rule of law and the spirit of cooperation prevail in maritime Indo- Pacific. The Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Expert Working Group’s 2021 workshop and this volume were funded by a grant from the U.S. Embassy Tokyo, and implemented in collaboration with the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies (YCAPS).
Topic:
Security, International Law, Maritime, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Japan, United States of America, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

1493. The United States and Viet Nam: Charting the Next 25 Years in Bilateral Security Relations

Author:
Jeffrey Ordaniel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and in collaboration with the Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam (DAV), organized the inaugural Track 2 U.S.-Viet Nam Security Dialogue on May 18-20, 2021. Strategic thinkers from the United States and Viet Nam, including scholars, policy experts, and retired military and government officials, participated in the dialogue. This report contains the general summary of the discussions. The recommendations contained in this report, unless otherwise specifically noted, were generated by the discussions as interpreted by the Principal Investigators. This is not a consensus document. Both the agenda and participant list are included in the appendix; all participants attended in their private capacity.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1494. The United States and Indonesia: Re-converging Security Interests in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Jeffrey Ordaniel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Pacific Forum, with support from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and in collaboration with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia (CSIS), organized the inaugural Track 2 U.S.-Indonesia Security Dialogue on June 1-3, 2021. Thought leaders from the United States and Indonesia, including scholars, policy experts, and retired military and government officials, participated in the dialogue. This report contains the general summary of the discussions. The recommendations contained in this report, unless otherwise specifically noted, were generated by the discussions as interpreted by the Principal Investigators. This is not a consensus document. Both the agenda and participant list are included in the appendix; all participants attended in their private capacity.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1495. European Contributions to Indo-Pacific Maritime Order

Author:
David Scott
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This paper looks at European contributions to the Indo-Pacific maritime order. The policy significance is two- fold. Firstly, the Indo-Pacific has become an increasingly crucial geographic region, with a constellation of leading powers. The United States and Japan face a rising China, with India a vital swing state. European powers are now faced with choices of policy in response to power competition in the Indo-Pacific. This also reflects the rising geo-economic importance of the region, home to the world’s most populous countries, India and China, and critical commercial sea lanes. Secondly, European actors–France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (EU) –have all announced various specific Indo-Pacific strategies to support their interests. Nevertheless, despite European interests and contributions to Indo-Pacific security, the European response to China-related maritime challenges, such as those in the South China Sea, has been too limited. European states are finding it difficult to balance national security interests tied to maritime stability and rules-based order in the region, with economic interests tied to China, the world’s second-largest economy. Europe needs a principled approach and a long-term view of its overall interests in the South China Sea and the wider maritime Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
National Security, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Indo-Pacific

1496. Foes to Partners: 25 Years of U.S.-Vietnam Relations

Author:
Jeffrey Ordaniel and Ariel Stenek
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Authors of this volume participated in the inaugural U.S.-Vietnam Next-Generation Leaders Initiative. With backgrounds in academia, public policy, military and industry, the cohort brings rich insights on the past, present, and future of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship. Between October 2020 and April 2021, cohort members engaged with senior experts and practitioners as they developed research papers addressing various aspects of the bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

1497. US-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue: Dealing with Increased Chinese Aggressiveness

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Taiwan needs much stronger friendships and more support, particularly from the United States, to counter Chinese moves and enhance deterrence of, and its defense potential against, Beijing. This is urgent because Taiwan no longer holds the qualitative advantage it once had over China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The United States supports a strong, resilient, and democratic Taiwan capable of maintaining its autonomy and ability to counter coercion and defend itself from any source, especially from China. Absent this, Washington’s widely shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific would be permanently undermined. It is clear, therefore, that the United States and Taiwan should step up their joint work and strengthen their security relationship, and it is critical that they do so expeditiously. At the same time, from a US perspective, it is important not to embolden Taipei or exceedingly raise its expectations about the US role to deter and defend against Beijing. While Washington has an interest in strengthening the island’s deterrence and defense potential vis-à-vis Beijing, it also does not want to encourage Taipei to become belligerent toward Beijing. Engagement, therefore, involves striking a tough balance, and many topics to that effect remain difficult—and much too sensitive—to address and discuss at the official level, particularly when it comes to deterrence and defense questions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1498. Imagined Currencies: How the DPRK Uses Cryptocurrency to Blunt Sanctions

Author:
Michael Buckalew
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
This research provides a contemporary study of how and why the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea (DPRK) chose to integrate cryptocurrency into its sanctions evasion strategy, as well as the US government’s response to this via its financial services regulatory and federal law enforcement agencies. The increased coverage and efficacy of US and international sanctions, especially during and since President Obama’s second term (2013-2017) forced the DPRK to find new sources of revenue to maintain elite domestic support and fund their weapons programs. The creation and proliferation of cryptocurrency, which allows for both a digital store of value and a means of exchange outside of the traditional international finance system, opened up an entirely new means by which the DPRK was able to obtain and move funds. Much the DPRK’s cryptocurrency is obtained by the through the use of illicit methods and their success has blunted the impact of sanctions as a policy tool. As a result, US financial services regulators and law enforcement have moved to regulate cryptocurrency and crack down on illegal activities associated with it, such as ransomware payments. However, US regulations regarding cryptocurrency remain largely fragmented across agencies and various local jurisdictions. This research highlights the underappreciated role played by the US Treasury Department and the semi-independent agencies under its aegis in turning policy goals into enforceable administrative law. It also finds a high degree of continuity in the development and application of sanctions between the Obama and Trump administrations against the DPRK. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the need for policymakers to develop a more comprehensive US legal framework around regulation of cryptocurrency to close off growing illicit revenue generation by hostile actors. The study then briefly touches on the increased importance of the DPRK’s digital activities during COVID-19. Finally, this study outlines three potential methods by which to manage risks posed by cryptocurrency: 1) a public-private partnership to create s standards setting or certification organization to self-police the industry; 2) the US government using its sovereign authority to legislate and regulate; or 3) an outright banning of cryptocurrency activities in the United States.
Topic:
Sanctions, Finance, Cryptocurrencies, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

1499. The United States and Singapore: Indo-Pacific Partners

Author:
Jeffrey Ordaniel and Ariel Stenek
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Authors of this volume participated in the inaugural U.S.- Singapore Next-Generation Leaders Initiative, sponsored by the U.S. Department of State, through the U.S. Embassy Singapore. With backgrounds from academia, public policy, civil society and industry, the cohort brings rich insights on the past, present, and future of the U.S.-Singapore relationship. Between September 2020 and August 2021, cohort members engaged with senior experts and practitioners as they developed research papers addressing various aspects of the bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Reform, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
North America, Singapore, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1500. More Harm than Good: Why Chinese Sanctions over THAAD have Backfired

Author:
Daniel Mitchum
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In 2017 South Korean Moon Jae-in, in response to North Korean ballistics testing, adopted a resolution to implement the THAAD missile interceptor system. Beijing had long been opposed to the system and as a result initiated a series of unofficial, punitive economic sanctions against South Korea which covered a range of industries. However, Beijing’s actions did little to alter Seoul’s decisions and have instead damaged China-South Korea relations. A similar paradigm has since appeared within China-Australia relations. How nations respond and adapt to such tactics in the future is a question of critical importance.
Topic:
International Relations, Sanctions, Weapons, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea