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11. Strength in Unity: A Sustainable US-Led Regional Security Construct in the Middle East

Author:
Robert Greenway
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
China and Russia are exploiting US indifference toward the Middle East and efforts to integrate Iran into the region, threatening regional stability, Israel’s security, and global markets. The convergence of threats encompasses an Iranian nuclear threshold state controlling a constellation of terrorist groups, resurgent non-state terrorist groups including ISIS and al-Qaeda, and Russian and Chinese exploitation of receding American presence. We are reaching an inflection point at which the United States risks the irrevocable loss of a favorable balance of both trade and forces, resulting in instability that will threaten our vital interests and the global economy. This constitutes an unprecedented range of challenges beyond our capacity, and the capacity of our partners and allies, to address threats to global energy and trade as we struggle to recover from a global pandemic. We have not faced a similar period of risk in the Middle East since the turmoil following the Iranian Revolution, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and storming of the Grand Mosque in 1979. The US shares vital national security interests with longtime partners in the region and, as a result, they prefer US leadership in both the economic and security domains. A sustainable US-led regional security construct in the Middle East that includes effective partners based on convergent interests is the most efficient way to address the unacceptable risk, which results from the disconnect between the vital national interests of the US and its partners and the resources both have committed. A constellation of mutually beneficial trade relationships providing both the resources and rationale for a regional security construct would strengthen such an arrangement.1 Establishing a US-led enduring regional security architecture comprised of more capable partners and allies is the most effective way for the United States to safeguard our vital national security interests in the Middle East. This architecture would provide five key benefits: Secure our vital interests. The US and global economies depend on the uninterrupted flow of energy from and trade through the Middle East, which remains a vital national security interest. Compete with China. China depends on the Middle East for energy to sustain its economy and military. Beijing is exploiting the vacuum created by US indifference to securing the Middle East. Manage risk and uncertainty. Threats in the region are approaching a quantitative military advantage over America’s partners, which creates unacceptable risk to US interests. Leverage our relationships. We retain advantages in the long-term diplomatic, economic, and security relationships that we have derived from convergent interests with partners. Build on a sound foundation. Historic efforts to build collective security constructs, many of which have occurred within the Middle East, provide valuable lessons.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, and Middle East

12. Disarming the Bomb: Distilling the Drivers and Disincentives for Iran's Nuclear Program

Author:
Jonathan Lord, Arona Baigal, Hunter Streling, and Stewart Latwin
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Negotiations to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal, reached an impasse this past year. Further, Iran made parallel decisions to brutally crack down on a nationwide protest movement and to inject itself into the conflict in Ukraine by furnishing Russia with weapons. These decisions may have rendered the impasse insurmountable. U.S. President Joe Biden has not retreated from the U.S. policy that it will never allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. However, Iran’s maximalist demands at the negotiating table, along with its domestic and foreign activities, have made it politically impossible for the United States and Europe to pursue further negotiation. Further complicating the situation and perhaps rendering the JCPOA increasingly obsolete, critical provisions of the original deal will expire in 2025 and 2030.1 The United States and the international community must consider how to constrain Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear deterrent in a post-JCPOA world, in which Iran has never been closer to achieving a bomb. The CNAS Middle East Security Program designed and ran a scenario exercise in October 2022 to identify key factors that might accelerate or decelerate Iran’s nuclear program in 2024. Additionally, the exercise explored how Iran, the United States, Israel, and the Gulf nations could prioritize their own national security objectives with respect to Iran’s nuclear program, along with the potential actions each might take to accomplish those objectives. The exercise examined two scenarios. Scenario 1 explored key countries’ policy actions and perspectives if the United States and Iran failed to reenter the JCPOA. Scenario 2 explored key countries’ policy actions and perspectives if the United States and Iran successfully renegotiated a return to compliance with the JCPOA and faced the imminent expiration of elements of the deal. Overall observations from the exercise suggest that Iran’s leadership’s primary concern is self-preservation. Pursuing a nuclear program is secondary and ultimately serves to advance the primary objective (self-preservation). U.S. policymakers face many challenges in rallying partners against Iran while prioritizing a negotiated approach to curtail Iran’s nuclear program.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, Deterrence, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

13. Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections

Author:
Aurélien Denizeau
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey. The general elections (parliamentary and presidential) will take place on May 14 and are unanimously considered to be crucial for the political future of the country. The electoral campaign is polarized around two major coalitions: the People’s Alliance, led by the presidential AKP and the MHP, which supports the re-election of President Erdoğan; and the Nation Alliance, formed by the main Kemalist party CHP with five other parties, and supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a presidential candidate. Two other coalitions are also present and could tip the election one way or the other: the Labor and Freedom Alliance, centered around the progressive and pro-Kurdish HDP, and the Ancestral Alliance, which supports the nationalist Sinan Oğan. While this political configuration may seem familiar to European observers – where cross-party coalitions are common, especially in parliamentary regimes – there are indications, such as the tensions between the İYİ Party and its partners in the Nation Alliance over support for Kılıçdaroğlu, that call into question the nature of these coalitions: are they motivated by ideological proximity, or are they merely tactical tools for gaining power? In particular, these coalitions seem to derive from the nature of the Turkish political regime and its evolution over the last decade, with an ultra-presidentialization of the system under the successive presidential terms of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which has led all political actors to position themselves in relation to his personal power. As socio-economic conditions weaken the AKP’s electoral base, the prospects for this election seem more open than ever.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

14. Women and the Iraq War, 20 Years Later: The Consequences of War, Sanctions, and Occupation for Women and the Continuing Struggle for Women’s Rights

Author:
David Cortright, Anna Romandash, and Marcelle Al-Zoughbi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This report marks 20 years since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. It recounts the impacts of war and critiques the strategy of using military intervention to enhance women’s rights. It is presented in the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 1325, adopted in 2000, which urges all actors to “adopt a gender perspective.” Our analysis traces the deterioration of social and economic conditions for women caused by U.S. policy and the resulting rise of extremism and sectarian warfare. We also address the role of Iraqi women in mobilizing movements to assert their rights and oppose violence. In telling this story, we rely extensively on the voices of Iraqi women who experienced and studied these events. A gender perspective means going beyond the view of women as victims to address the political agency of women as they struggle for political, economic, and social justice. We use “feminist discovery” to examine the lived experience of Iraqi women and gain a better understanding of the realities of war.1 This report draws lessons for the future of U.S. and international security policy and examines the agenda for women’s rights today as defined by Iraqi women and their international supporters.
Topic:
War, Women, Feminism, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

15. Oslo at 30: Personal Perspectives from Washington Institute Scholars: A Compendium

Author:
Dennis Ross, David Makovsky, Neomi Neumann, Ghaith al-Omari, and Mohammed S. Dajani
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On the thirtieth anniversary of the landmark Oslo I Accord, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy has published a remarkable compendium that includes essays by officials who played significant roles in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process from the deal’s signing in September 1993 through the present. The volume includes personal perspectives from former diplomats, analysis of public opinion among Israelis and Palestinians, and policy recommendations for U.S. officials. The writers conclude that while the prospects for peace appear dim at the moment, wise policymaking may yet fulfill the promise of the Oslo Accords.
Topic:
Negotiation, Peace, Oslo Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16. Data for Disaster Risk Reduction: An Evaluation on the Use and Sharing

Author:
Bürge Elvan Erginli
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The report first examines how data and information technologies are situated in global frameworks and national plans for disaster risk reduction. Following a general outline of the types of data relating to the three stages before, during and after disasters, the report draws on relevant studies and engages the discussions in the round table meetings held within the scope of the project and attended by representatives from different institutions and organisations to analyse the data produced, utilised, and shared in the project provinces. The final section of the report presents conclusions and recommendations.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Governance, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

17. What Iraq Tells Us About Displacement

Author:
Salma Al-Shami
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Over pizza in the charming town of Ankawa on the outskirts of Erbil, Iraq, survey field researchers start telling their stories from the field. “I’m visiting this one house, and I come to the question about ‘do you consider yourself displaced,’” recounts a veteran Iraqi researcher. “The hajji [elderly man] stares at me silently for a minute, and then with a deadpan expression on his face says, ‘Do I consider myself displaced? No, I consider myself a lawyer!’ He then angrily yells at us to get out.” The table erupts in laughter. The casual outing in summer of 2018 had been proceeded by a week’s worth of training workshops on survey and interview best practices, discussions on questionnaires, and logistical meetings in a stuffy, high-rise hotel on Erbil’s 60 Meter Street. Research teams from Georgetown University (GU) and from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) were gathered in preparation for the latest round of qualitative and quantitative data collection for the joint project Access to Durable Solutions Among Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Iraq. The first-ever study of its kind, Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq followed, over a five-year period, nearly 3,600 Iraqi households that had been displaced by ISIS/ISIL. In this one evening away from official formalities, what crystalizes among the GU and IOM teams is that the study’s substantive contributions and innovations stem from the strengths of this academic-NGO partnership.
Topic:
Displacement, Internal Displacement, Perception, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

18. Honoring the Memories of Iraqi Academics

Author:
Besan Jaber
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
She will not awaken, will not come back to life. I thought that I could carry on, would carry on her legacy. I knew I would never be half the lawyer, half the teacher she was, but I thought I could carry on, keep her memory alive. I would ask the same questions, meet the same silences, get the same look that conveyed a deadly warning. But what was her death if I did not ask? What was my freedom if I did not question?… – Dr. Persis Kari These lines are an excerpt from the poem “When We Dead Awaken,” written by Dr. Persis Karim in memory of Iraqi academics Muneer al-Khiero and his wife Leila al-Saad. The couple worked together at Mosul University’s College of Law—Dr. Al-Saad as Dean and Dr. Al-Khiero as a lecturer. On June 21, 2004, both were found dead in their home in the Dandan neighborhood, South of Mosul. The pan-Arab newspaper Asharq Al- Awsat quoted a police official as saying that the killings were not motivated by theft, as large sums of money were found, untouched, in the couple’s home.* Instead, Al-Saad and Al-Khiero were likely the victims of targeted assassinations, placing them among the hundreds of Iraqi academics and educators brutally killed in the decade following the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of the country. Although the exact number is not known, the Brussels Tribunal verified and published the names and details of the deaths of over 400 Iraqi academics who were killed—more than half at point-blank by firearms, while others were kidnapped, including some by security forces and died in detention. Karim’s poem commemorating the couple is part of the project “Shadow and Light,” an on-going project to set up exhibitions of photographs and artists’ statements honoring the hundreds of Iraqi academics and educators brutally killed in the decade following the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of the country. “Shadow and Light” was founded in 2018 by poet and San Francisco-based activist Beau Beausoleil, who sees the project as one of “witness, memory, and solidarity.” “During their lifetimes, the men and women memorialized in this exhibit enriched diverse fields of knowledge —from history to calligraphy to the study of bees,” said Beausoleil. “Each assassination represented an attack on the underlying principle of education—to share knowledge—and served as a threat to scholars throughout Iraq that they were at risk.”
Topic:
Memory, Iraq War, Academia, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

19. The American Invasion and Authoritarianism

Author:
Joseph Sassoon
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Professor Joseph Sassoon discusses the durability of authoritarianism and the decline of American predominance in the years following the Iraq War. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not an isolated episode—as interventions by superpowers, have been a recurring feature in the contemporary history of the Middle East and its authoritarian trajectories. Even so, the American invasion stands out in terms of its scale and the reach of its aftermath. The events of 2003 have influenced Arab regimes and societies far more than other wars or softer forms of global involvement—and in ways that remain more distinct today. The fallout and lingering effects of the American invasion included regional polarizations, securitization, sectarian/ethnic manipulation, transferred counterinsurgency practices, and the expansion of carceral systems. Although Middle Eastern regimes varied in their capacity to translate their learning in the face of social and geopolitical pressures, these fallouts found unique expression in the “rogue states” that were targets of American democratization campaigns and played a key role in autocratic revival and well-being post-2011.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Iraq War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

20. The Lessons We Choose to Draw

Author:
Paul J. McKinney
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
In September 2003, just a few violent months after the Bush administration proclaimed major combat operations had ended, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) – the US-led civilian body charged with administering occupied Iraq – organized a two-day workshop in Baghdad to identify best practices for countries transitioning from state-led to market economies. Seeking to draw lessons that may be applicable to Iraq, the CPA invited former ministers and finance officials from Central and Eastern European countries to share their experiences. Evidently impressed by Poland’s “shock therapy,” in which Warsaw introduced a drastic neoliberal package during the country’s emergence from Soviet domination in the early 90s, the CPA appointed the former Polish finance and prime minister responsible for those reforms, Marek Belka, to head the CPA’s Office of Economic Policy. With Belka at the helm, lessons learned from Poland’s transition would be universalized and superimposed onto Iraq, with little regard to contextual factors. Iraq was, after all, seen as a blank canvas upon which the West could project its own visions. Zealously driven by a belief that markets are the most efficient way to organize a society and, by extension, to optimize individual freedom, the CPA issued what can only be described as the economic equivalent to the U.S. military’s “shock-and-awe” campaign. Within a year, the CPA issued an astoundingly high number of Orders to build the new neoliberal state. Some of the most notable included, for example, selling about 200 state-run enterprises, eliminating the right to unionize in most sectors, outlawing labor strikes, opening Iraq’s banks to foreign ownership and control, mandating a regressive flat tax on income, lowering the corporate rate to a flat 15%, eliminating taxes on profits repatriated to foreign-owned businesses, and even prohibiting Iraqi farmers from re-using “protected” varieties of genetically modified seeds.
Topic:
Security, Markets, Reform, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East