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151. A Commitment to Building a Global Generation: The Five-Year Impact of IIE’s Generation Study Abroad Initiative

Author:
Lindsay Calvert and Jodi Sanger
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
In 2014, IIE launched the Generation Study Abroad (GSA), a five-year initiative to mobilize resources and commitments with the goal of increasing and diversifying the number of U.S. students studying abroad by the end of the decade. IIE created a concerted effort and space for partners to join Generation Study Abroad by committing to bold, ambitious actions in support of study abroad on their campuses or at their organizations. The campaign became a global movement, forming the 800+ strong GSA Commitment Partner network representing a variety of U.S.-based and international partners, including national governments, higher education institutions (HEIs), study abroad organizations, education associations, and more. In 2020, IIE took stock of Generation Study Abroad with the final annual progress survey for GSA Commitment Partners. The survey tracked progress toward goals, best practices, and the implementation of effective activities and resources for the network. The report highlights key programmatic efforts and partner achievements framed by an analysis of data collected over the life of the initiative. In addition to evaluating the impact of this initiative, it offers an opportunity to continue building on the momentum of study abroad growth from 2019.
Topic:
Globalization, Youth, Higher Education, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:
Global Focus

152. COVID-19 Effects on US Higher Education Campuses Report 4

Author:
Mirka Martel and Julie Baer
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The fourth report in IIE’s COVID-19 Snapshot Survey Series analyzes the international education field one year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the effects on international student enrollment and U.S. study abroad for the 2021/22 academic year.
Topic:
Higher Education, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

153. International Student Mobility Flows and COVID-19 Realities

Author:
Leah Mason
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The flow of international students crossing borders to pursue educational opportunities has been significantly affected by the COVID‐19 pandemic, causing higher education systems worldwide to consider the context and realities of global academic mobility before and after the health crisis. This joint paper by the Institute of International Education (IIE) and IC3 analyzes significant international student mobility trends before the COVID‐19 pandemic, the role of the United States and other host countries in offering international students academic opportunities, and the increased competitiveness among countries to attract international students. The paper will provide an overview of the global mobility flows to and from major world regions in the 2019/2020 academic year. The paper will then consider the effects of COVID‐19 on global student mobility and how the pandemic has comparatively affected international students and the countries that serve as their hosts.
Topic:
Mobility, Higher Education, Students, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

154. Economic Value of Peace 2021: Measuring the global economic impact of violence and conflict

Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The comprehensive methodology includes 18 indicators covering the direct and indirect costs of violence, and the expenditures to contain and prevent violence. The model also includes a multiplier for the direct costs to account for the additional economic activity resulting from a redirection of these costs to more productive pursuits. The economic impact of violence provides an empirical basis to better understand the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population. It uses the best available data to calculate the overall impact. However, not all categories of violence have reliable data, therefore preventing their inclusion in the model. Some examples of costs excluded from the model are counter-terrorism and intelligence agency expenditures, insurance costs, lost business opportunities and family violence. As such, the estimates presented in this report are considered highly conservative. In 2019, the economic impact of violence decreased by $64 billion from the previous year. This was the equivalent of a 0.4 per cent decrease and was largely driven by reductions in Armed Conflict. This fall predominantly occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region and was driven by fewer terror attacks, conflict deaths, and population displacement costs. This is a continued reversal of previous periods where between 2012 and 2017, the global economic impact of violence rose by 12.2 per cent to peak at $14.8 trillion. This is the second consecutive year of improvement.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

155. Global Peace Index 2021: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 15th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive datadriven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security, the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and the degree of Militarisation. This year’s results show that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.07 per cent. This is the ninth deterioration in peacefulness in the last thirteen years, with 87 countries improving, and 73 recording deteriorations; however, the change in score is the second smallest in the history of the index. The 2021 GPI reveals a world in which the conflicts and crises that emerged in the past decade have begun to abate, only to be replaced with a new wave of tension and uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions between many of the major powers.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Global Security, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

156. Business & Peace 2021

Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
Rather than asking what businesses can do for peace, this study differentiates itself by focusing on what peace can offer businesses. The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) sees this as an important, but missing step in business analysis. In order for the private sector to engage with peacebuilding, investors first need to see the benefits of peace to their investment decisions. This work shows that economic performance can be predicted by movements in the same socio-economic developmental factors that affect peacefulness. These conditions are known as Positive Peace. The global economic impact of violence was $14.4 trillion in 2020. This is broadly equivalent to the entire economy of China. If humanity were to reduce violence by ten per cent per annum, the savings of $1.4 trillion would broadly equate to adding an economy the size of Russia’s or Brazil’s every year to the global fold. The burden of violence on an economy is self-evident. However, this report focusses on the converse perspective: countries that improve their underlying conditions, as gauged by IEP’s measures of peace, create the potential for a significant peace dividend for business.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Business, Peace, and International Business
Political Geography:
Global Focus

157. Digital Technologies, Peacebuilding and Civil Society

Author:
Julia-Silvana Hofstetter
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
The wide availability of digital technologies is increasingly impacting the work of peacebuilders, altering both peacebuilding practices and conflict dynamics. The malicious use of technology – from the weaponization of social media to digital authoritarianism and cyberattacks – poses new threats to peaceful societies and urges peacebuilders to consider new fields of action in cyberspace. However, digitalization has also brought major innovations to the work of peacebuilders, establishing a new field of practice, ‘digital peacebuilding’. Many of the innovative uses of peace technologies – for conflict prevention, transformation and reconciliation – have been driven by civil society organizations, who are at the forefront of addressing the rising threat of digital conflict drivers, too. This report provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges digital technologies create for peacebuilders, discusses how they alter the role of civil society, and proposes future directions for the digital peacebuilding agenda.
Topic:
Civil Society, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Peace, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

158. Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Security Practices

Author:
Tobias von Lossow, Louise Van Schaik, Jos Meester, Anouk Schrijver, and Maxime van der Kroon
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Planetary Security Initiative has launched a first report and overview of climate security practices. Climate security research has evolved tremendously over the past 20 years in the direction of how to address security risks related to climate change. Action on the ground is still limited but holds a lot of potential. Therefore, interest is growing in the development, diplomacy and defence sectors to engage in this space. The climate security practices project from the Planetary Security Initiative seeks to open up a new and vital area of analysis in the climate security community: When it comes to action, what works, and what doesn’t? Although it is still too early to answer this question, it is possible to collect climate security practices and draw lessons from their implementation. With the climate security link having become more evident in many countries and regions of the world it is imperative to scale up efforts to address the climate security nexus and to learn from these efforts. The Planetary Security Initiative aims to inspire learning on how we can combat this complex risk, or at least alleviate security risks related to climate change, and consider it a new entry point for conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts. The first report draws lessons from and reflects on 8 climate security practices that enhance peace and stability. Many peace-building interventions try to address a wide range of conflict drivers, which include the various manifestations of climate stress such as pressure on natural resources, livelihoods and human security. These can arise from desertification, lack of access to water and unequal natural resource distribution. Examples of these interventions include tree-planting projects, the inclusion of natural resource distribution measures in peace treaties and provision of renewables in refugee camps and military missions. The projects will cover a wide range of practices ranging from human security to hard security-focused practices implemented by actors in the development, diplomacy and defence sectors.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

159. Countering Global Kleptocracy: A New US Strategy for Fighting Authoritarian Corruption

Author:
Nate Sibley and Ben Judah
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In the most comprehensive kleptocracy policy study yet published, Nate Sibley and Ben Judah examine the pervasive threat to democracy, prosperity and security posed by globalized corruption and offer 70 recommendations for US policymakers.
Topic:
Corruption, Authoritarianism, Criminal Justice, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

160. Implementing Decision-Centric Warfare: Elevating Command and Control to Gain an Optionality Advantage

Author:
Bryan Clark, Dan Patt, and Timothy A. Walton
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Since the Cold War ended, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has developed doctrine and capabilities predominantly for the most stressing campaigns it could face against opponents such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and North Korea. These worst-case scenarios are intended to ensure US forces can address “lesser-included” cases as well. This approach, however, favors concepts and systems designed for large-scale, high-intensity military conflict, and intelligent US adversaries are unlikely to present US forces with confrontations where DoD could leverage its strengths in missions such as power projection or precision strike. America’s rivals have evolved approaches during the past decade to circumvent US military strengths, such as PRC and Russian gray-zone or hybrid operations, that obtain objectives at lower cost and escalation—albeit over longer timeframes—than traditional military combat. DoD should therefore revise its planning to raise the priority of new scenarios that stress the US military in different ways than theater-wide high-intensity combat such as through protraction, varying levels of escalation and scale, and the use of proxy and paramilitary forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) concept of System Destruction Warfare and the Russian military’s New Generation Warfare are representative of the new approaches being employed against the United States and its allies. Although they are very different in their theory of victory and methodology, both concepts share a focus on information and decision-making as the main battlegrounds for future conflict. They direct attacks on an opponent’s battle network electronically and physically to degrade its ability to obtain accurate information while introducing false information that erodes the opponent’s ability to orient. Simultaneously, military and paramilitary forces would present dilemmas to the opponent by isolating or attacking targets in a manner that neutralized their combat potential and controlled the escalation of a conflict.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

161. The post-Covid city: the ongoing spatial and technological reconfiguration in China and the world

Author:
Philip Yang, Carlo Ratti, Kamila Aben Athar, and Yung Ho Chang
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
Considering the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on our everyday life, the XXV China Analysis Group Meeting focused on the organization of large cities and the reordering of urban agglomerations. According to the participants, the maintenance of this model and the rearrangement, focused on urban sprawl, are valid alternatives, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Another issue discussed was the impact of technologies on how cities are shaped in the 21st century, to which participants responded by mentioning the role of artificial intelligence and big data in making the architecture behave like a living organism. However, they also warned about the importance of developing a balance between the natural and the artificial world. Finally, the participants said that for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, it is necessary for each city to adopt specific policies that suit its own reality, because there is not a universal formula.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Science and Technology, Cities, Carbon Emissions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Global Focus

162. AI and International Stability: Risks and Confidence-Building Measures

Author:
Michael Horowitz and Paul Scharre
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Militaries around the world believe that the integration of machine learning methods throughout their forces could improve their effectiveness. From algorithms to aid in recruiting and promotion, to those designed for surveillance and early warning, to those used directly on the battlefield, applications of artificial intelligence (AI) could shape the future character of warfare. These uses could also generate significant risks for international stability. These risks relate to broad facets of AI that could shape warfare, limits to machine learning methods that could increase the risks of inadvertent conflict, and specific mission areas, such as nuclear operations, where the use of AI could be dangerous. To reduce these risks and promote international stability, we explore the potential use of confidence-building measures (CBMs), constructed around the shared interests that all countries have in preventing inadvertent war. Though not a panacea, CBMs could create standards for information-sharing and notifications about AI-enabled systems that make inadvertent conflict less likely.
Topic:
Science and Technology, International Affairs, Military Affairs, Political stability, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

163. Principles for the Combat Employment of Weapon Systems with Autonomous Functionalities

Author:
Robert O. Work
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
An international debate over lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) has been under way for nearly a decade.1 In 2012, the Department of Defense (DoD) issued formal policy guidance on weapon systems with autonomous functionalities,2 and nations have come together since 2014 to discuss LAWS through the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW). The discussions at the CCW have been hampered by the lack of an agreed-upon definition for LAWS.3 However, states party to the CCW agreed in 2019 that “human responsibility” for the decisions over the use of weapon systems and the use of force “must be retained.”4 Accordingly, discussions now tend to focus on the type and degree of human involvement required to ensure compliance with international humanitarian law and satisfy ethical concerns.5 Several scholars argue these discussions should focus on “developing objective, commonly held, and function-based understandings of autonomy in the military context” (emphasis added).6 The premise of this paper is that the best way to achieve such an understanding is to develop, debate, and agree upon some commonly accepted principles for the employment of weapon systems with autonomous functionalities in armed conflict.7 This is where the legal, ethical, and moral questions about autonomy in warfare are most acute and deserve the most attention. This paper offers a starting point for these discussions. The seven principles proposed in this paper are intended to complement and build on existing DoD guidance, including DoD Directive (DoDD) 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, and DoD’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Principles.8 They are also consistent with the 11 guiding principles adopted in 2019 by the CCW in its “Meeting of the High Contracting Parties to the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects.”9 These seven new principles concentrate on the responsible use of autonomous functionalities in armed conflict in ways that preserve human judgment and responsibility over the use of force and help minimize the probability of loss of control of the system or unintended engagements, especially against noncombatants. This paper is organized into four sections. The first details the history of U.S. weapon systems with autonomous functionalities. It is intended to give the reader a notion of how these weapons have historically been used, why autonomous functionalities are so useful, and why the DoD retains the right to use them. The second section explains why weapons with autonomous functionalities are now being improved through the addition of AI, an important development that aims to make the weapons more discriminate in the application of force. The third section explains why the DoD should consider publishing a new set of principles for the combat employment of weapon systems with autonomous functionalities. The final section outlines seven proposed principles for consideration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

164. Getting the Balance Right: Refining the Strategic Application of Nonproliferation Sanctions

Author:
Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, David Cortright, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fourth Freedom Forum
Abstract:
This paper argues for a greater commitment to sanctions that fit the reality of each discrete case of proliferation, nimble diplomacy that includes incentives-based bargaining, and strategies for reciprocal threat reduction to reduce nuclear dangers and enhance international cooperation for peace and security.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Nonproliferation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

165. National Development Delivers: And How! And How?

Author:
Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Core dual ideas of early development economics and practice were that (a) national development was a four-fold transformation of countries towards: (i) a more productive economy, (ii) a more responsive state, (iii) more capable administration, and (iv) a shared identity and equal treatment of citizens and (b) this four-fold transformation of national development would lead to higher levels of human wellbeing. The second idea is strikingly correct: development delivers. National development is empirically necessary for high wellbeing (no country with low levels of national development has high human wellbeing) and also empirically sufficient (no country with high national development has low levels of human wellbeing). Three measures of national development: productive economy, capable administration, and responsive state, explain (essentially) all of the observed variation in an omnibus indicator of wellbeing, the Social Progress Index, which is based on 58 distinct non-economic indicators. How national development delivers on wellbeing varies, in three ways. One, economic growth is much more important for achieving wellbeing at low versus high levels of income. Two, economic growth matters more for “basic needs” than for other dimensions of wellbeing (like social inclusiveness or environmental quality). Three, state capability matters more for wellbeing outcomes that depend on public production than on private goods (and for some wellbeing indicators, like physical safety, for which growth doesn’t matter at all). While these findings may seem too common sense to be worth a paper, national development--and particularly economic growth—is, strangely, under severe challenge as an important and legitimate objective of action within the development industry.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

166. Principles for Building Confidence and Stability into National Defenses and International Security – toward sufficient, affordable, robust, and reliable defense postures

Author:
Charles Knight
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
By bringing military structures into line with defensive political goals, the non-provocation standard facilitates the emergence of trusting, cooperative, peaceful political relations among nations. In contrast, any doctrine and force posture oriented to project power into other countries is provocative — unless reliably restrained by political and organizational structures.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. Opportunities and Limits of CO2 Recycling in a Circular Carbon Economy: Techno-economics, Critical Infrastructure Needs, and Policy Priorities

Author:
Amar Bhardwaj, Colin McCormick, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Despite growing efforts to drastically cut carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and address climate change, energy outlooks project that the world will continue to rely on certain products that are currently carbon-intensive to produce but have limited alternatives, such as aviation fuels and concrete. Recycling CO2 into valuable chemicals, fuels, and materials has emerged as an opportunity to reduce the emissions of these products. In this way, CO2 recycling is a potential cornerstone of a circular carbon economy that can support a net-zero future. However, CO2 recycling processes have largely remained costly and difficult to deploy, underscoring the need for supportive policies informed by analysis of the current state and future challenges of CO2 recycling. This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Policy, examines 19 CO2 recycling pathways to understand the opportunities and the technical and economic limits of CO2 recycling products gaining market entry and reaching global scale. The pathways studied consume renewable (low-carbon) electricity and use chemical feedstocks derived from electrochemical pathways powered by renewable energy. Across these CO2 recycling pathways, the authors evaluated current globally representative production costs, sensitivities to cost drivers, carbon abatement potential, critical infrastructure and feedstock needs, and the effect of subsidies. Based on this analysis, the paper concludes with targeted policy recommendations to support CO2 recycling innovation and deployment.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

168. Oil Intensity: The Curiously Steady Decline of Oil in GDP

Author:
Christof Ruhl and Titus Erker
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Oil is the largest primary fuel, and the trajectory of oil consumption is of great concern and consequence for economic, political, and, not least, for climate change reasons. Anticipating oil prices and production from year to year is not easy; identifying even basic ingredients of aggregate demand and supply schedules, such as price or income elasticities, is notoriously difficult. It’s an additional challenge to model the structure of a market that sometimes appears to be highly cartelized, and at other times populated by a large flock of peaceful price takers. But a remarkably steady metric—and possible tool for projecting consumption into the future—has been identified in this paper: oil intensity. Oil intensity is the volume of oil consumed per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). Measured simply in barrels per dollar, it is often viewed as a broad measure of oil efficiency; it certainly demonstrates the importance of oil in a society. The efficiency of oil use has improved, in other words oil intensity has declined, over the years and decades. In 1973, for example, when oil intensity was at its zenith, the world used a little less than one barrel of oil to produce $1,000 worth of GDP (2015 prices). By 2019 (the last data set before Covid) global oil intensity was 0.43 barrel per $1,000 of global GDP—a 56% decline. Oil has become a lot less important and humanity has become more efficient in making use of it. What is worth a closer look, and is the focus of this paper reporting on oil and gas related research at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, is the pattern by which this progress has been achieved. Since 1984, oil intensity has fallen every year in an almost perfectly linear fashion: the amount of oil used per dollar of global GDP has dropped by roughly the same amount each year. Wars and revolutions, booms and busts, OPEC successes and failures, and every other monumental event in the last 35 years left their imprint on oil markets but didn’t alter oil intensity’s steady, downward crawl. This kind of regularity is very rare in any long-time trend, in economics or in energy. Although oil intensity isn’t a new topic, an attempt to explain its curiously consistent downward progress—or even any discussion about it—is hard to find in the literature. For this paper, the authors explain the trend and cross-validate its predictive potential before delving into possible reasons behind the linear decline in oil intensity. It finally extrapolates what such a continuing trend might mean for oil consumption and policies around it going forward.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and GDP
Political Geography:
Global Focus

169. "The ball should not get stained": The Qatar soccer world cup 2022 tarnished by human rights violations

Author:
Gabriella Michele Garcia
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
FIFA gave the bid to Qatar to host the World Cup in 2022. Qatar gave the promise that they would hold a spectacular cup with the construction of a city, stadiums, and luxurious venues and hotels. To complete the construction process, they hired migrant domestic workers, and in the process they have violated human and workers rights, putting workers at risk of death, and betraying the terms and conditions under which the workers had been hired. Since the start of the construction project there has been a massive turn for the worst in migrant worker’s rights, as they continue to be abused.
Topic:
Human Rights, Sports, Migrant Workers, FIFA, and Soccer
Political Geography:
Qatar and Global Focus

170. Five Years After the Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Are Climate Change Considerations Reflected in Mining Contracts?

Author:
Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, Perrine Toledano, Martin Dietrich Brauch, and Mara Greenberg
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
At the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference, the world’s governments set an ambitious goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C over pre-industrial levels. To meet this goal, global anthropogenic CO2 emissions must decline steadily and reach net zero by about 2050.2 The pathway to a low-carbon future requires a fundamental shift away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy technologies. This transition will be mineral-intensive: the World Bank estimates that the production of minerals could increase by more than 450% by 2050 to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies.3 How these minerals are produced will have a lasting effect on the clean energy transition. The mining and metal sector contributes 4–7% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally.4 Without adequate regulation to incentivize climate- friendly sustainable operations, increases in mineral extraction risk increasing the sector’s carbon footprint.5 In addition, climate change acts as a risk multiplier by increasing the risk of flooding, drought, and landslides and, as such, exacerbates the negative externalities caused by poor mining practices. First and foremost, climate change considerations should be incorporated into the climate, environmental, water, forestry, energy, or mining laws of mineral-rich countries. For example, in 2016, Kenya passed a climate law that requires climate mainstreaming in all sectors.6 Guinea’s 2019 Environmental Code encourages the use of renewable energy wherever possible and mandates the environment minister to implement the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation.7 But the pace of legislative processes is often slow—and in countries where the legislation does not include climate change mitigation and adaptation requirements,8 countries may turn to contractual provi- sions to compel the mining sector to shift to climate- sensitive practices. This paper assesses the extent to which this is being done through an analysis of all publicly available mining contracts signed by fragile states in Africa9 after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 that appear on ResourceContracts.org (21 contracts).10 Though the magnitude of African fragile states’ contri- bution to global GHG emissions is minimal, these states have a comparatively high degree of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.11 In this context, governments can and should mobilize the mining sector to play a meaningful role in meeting their climate mitigation and adaptation needs and those of project-affected communities. In addition, the increased demand for critical minerals to produce renewable energy and battery solutions tends to increase investment flows into the mining sector of several of those fragile states,12 making it all the more crucial for their governments to ensure that new mining investments support each country’s sustainable development goals. Doing so, with respect to climate action, furthers both a country’s competitiveness in international markets13 and minimize the mining sector’s footprint on the country’s environment and communities. Though our analysis focuses on contracts concluded by fragile states in Africa, the policy recommendations that we draw from their analysis apply to all host governments that do not already have robust laws that operationalize mitigation and adaptation goals and are eager to leverage and strengthen the role of their mining sectors in achieving sustainable development. Our recommendations envision generating long-term savings over the life of the mines, even if some of those recommendations may in practice represent higher upfront costs for mining companies. For example, adopting renewable energy sources, though possibly more expensive at the outset, is more cost-effective than fossil fuels considering the life of a mine.14 Avoiding deforestation early on also generates savings for mining companies when the time comes to fulfill their mine closure and rehabilitation obligations. Furthermore, by supporting community efforts to build resilience to climate change, mining companies have the opportunity to meaningfully contribute to project-affected communities. Attention to climate change considerations that entail higher expenditures by mining investors at the initial stages of the operation of a mine also tend to reduce the tax revenues from mining for host governments in the short term. However, for governments, too, the long-term benefits outweigh the initial revenue reductions. As long as governments put strong progressive fiscal regimes in place,15 they will be able to reap the upside from a climate- aware, low-carbon mining sector that will be more profitable than a business-as-usual, carbon-intensive mining sector in the medium to long term.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

171. Comparison Between the IPCC Reporting Framework and Country Practice

Author:
Jiarui Chen and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines (IPCC 2008) for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC Guidelines) provide a recommend- ed (but not mandatory) methodology for preparing Na- tional Inventory Reports (NIR), which all Annex I Parties2 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) must submit every year (Romijn et al. 2019). In practice, however, many countries apply modi- fied methodologies in their NIRs to reflect country-specif- ic situations better. While helpful in addressing country specificities, those modified methodologies may result in emission data that is less standardized and therefore harder to compare and consolidate. Also, the IPCC recom- mends that countries adopt higher tier methods and use more granular data. Since different emissions categorized by the IPCC3 can be calculated by multiple methods, and the granularity and quality of country emissions databas- es vary, different countries adopt different granularity lev- els and tier methods (IPCC 2008). The 160 Non-Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (most of them developing countries) are not required to submit NIRs every year, but must submit Biennial Update Re- ports (BURs), including a national inventory report and information on mitigation actions, needs, and support re- ceived (Kainou 2016). Following the same IPCC Guidelines as NIRs, BURs are different from NIRs mainly in terms of reporting scope. The IPCC Guidelines require countries to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in NIRs from 1980 to the latest reporting period, while for BURs they merely encourage countries to submit summary informa- tion tables of inventories for previous submission years.4 Besides the required BURs, more Non-Annex I Parties have been submitting NIRs and Technical Annexes on REDD+ in recent years (Romijn et al. 2019). In 2020, 23 Non-Annex I Parties submitted NIRs (UNFCCC 2020). We recommend that the IPCC adopt, based on a man- date from the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, a consolidated framework to indicate best practice for each emissions category. A consolidated framework would help unify the granularity levels and standards across all coun- tries’ NIRs. It could also be extended to countries that have not adopted the IPCC Guidelines or published NIRs. Since an increasing number of Non-Annex I Parties are submit- ting NIRs to the UNFCCC, it is crucial to have a widely appli- cable framework that developing countries can also use. A consolidated framework would also make it easier for countries to communicate their emissions reductions goals in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. With the Paris Agreement, countries established an enhanced transparency framework (ETF): starting in 2024, countries will report transparently on actions taken and progress in climate change mitigation, adaptation measures, and support provided or received. It also provides for interna- tional procedures for the review of the submitted NIRs. A standardized reporting framework for NIRs would comply with the requirement of transparency framework under Paris Agreement (Winkler et al. 2017). To exemplify how a consolidated framework would work, after a background note on scopes and approaches in greenhouse gas reporting (section 1), we present the re- sults of our empirical research on the NIRs of Australia, Germany, Japan, and the United States, focusing on the differences in the choice of methodology (section 2) and emission factors (section 3). Then we conduct a case study on the German iron and steel industry, exploring the dif- ferences in emission reporting under different methods (section 4). Finally, we study the case of China, which has submitted BURs but not yet published annual NIRs, to understand how the IPCC Guidelines could be applied to more countries (section 5). We outline our findings and recommendations in section 6.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

172. Responsible Coffee Sourcing: Towards a Living Income for Producers

Author:
Kaitlin Y. Cordes, Margaret Sagan, and Solina Kennedy
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Coffee company sourcing practices are a key tool for improving coffee producer and farmworker well-being. Companies are not the only actor responsible for addressing living income and living wages, and sourcing practices are not the only relevant tool. Governments and other stakeholders must use policies, programs, and other levers to address the structural factors that contribute to producers’ and farmworkers’ impoverishment. Yet the role of other actors and interventions should not be an excuse for company practices that contribute to producer and worker poverty. Credible options exist for roasters and retailers to improve producer and farmworker well-being through sourcing practices.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Poverty, and Coffee
Political Geography:
Global Focus

173. Fixing the Business of Food: Aligning Food Company Practices with the SDGs

Author:
Columbia Centre on Sustainable Investment
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The world food system is in crisis, which is why UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres convened a UN World Food System Summit at UN Headquarters on September 23, 2021. The crisis is really a complex set of crises,
Topic:
Poverty, Food, Food Security, Sustainability, and Dietary Habits
Political Geography:
Global Focus

174. NEW TECH, NEW DEAL: Mining Policy Options in the Face of New Technology

Author:
Isabelle Ramdoo, Aaron Cosbey, Jeff Geipel, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Throughout the history of mining, technological innovation has played a vital role across all cycles of mining projects. The new wave of technological adoption is a combination of evolutionary and revolutionary technologies, with an increasing focus on the latter. An acceleration in investments in disruptive technologies in recent years has seen the large-scale mining sector finally catching up with a dynamic that has already advanced in many other sectors. The reasons for this shift include more difficult geology, declining ore deposits, the need to reverse a secular decline in productivity, the need to improve safety for mine workers, a need to manage environmental impacts, and—more recently—a reaction to pressures from the COVID-19 crisis.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Mining, Automation, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Global Focus

175. The Digital Decide: How to Agree on WTO Rules for Digital Trade

Author:
James Bacchus
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
After more than 20 years of unsuccessful negotiations, WTO member countries may be able to agree on global digital trade rules if they look to the new Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) among Chile, New Zealand and Singapore as a model. As the first “digital only” trade agreement, the DEPA offers a modular approach that allows members to pick and choose which modules work best for them today while enabling them to adopt more legal commitments on digital trade in the future. As cross-border trade becomes increasingly digital, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring the free movement of goods and services is essential to the global economy.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

176. 2020 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention: Rapporteur's Report

Author:
Alex Vandermaas-Peeler
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On June 10, 2020, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum brought together scholars, practitioners, and civil society representatives to discuss possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global risk of mass atrocities and efficacy of mass atrocity prevention. This seminar was the first in a series designed to stimulate new policy-relevant research and begin building a network of scholars and practitioners focused on global trends and their implications for mass atrocities and atrocity prevention. Future seminar series topics include the global distribution of power, new technologies, demographics, climate change, and resource competition, and norms and ideologies. This rapporteur’s report summarizes major observations raised during the workshop.
Topic:
Genocide, Risk, Atrocities, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

177. The Future of Mass Atrocities and Atrocity Prevention: Report from the 2020 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:
Lawerence Woocher and Jonathan Strauss
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report compiles essays from several leading experts who participated in the seminar series. We asked them to reflect on one or more key themes and offer recommendations for research and/or policy initiatives that could help current and future leaders address mass atrocities. The collection of essays reflects the breadth and diversity of issues that are likely to affect mass atrocities and their prevention over the next decade. Reflecting on changes in the distribution of political power and weakening anti-atrocity norms, Scott Straus identifies four significant challenges for the atrocity prevention agenda. Dara Kay Cohen highlights an often-neglected factor--sex and gender inequalities-- and argues that it is likely to worsen over the next decade in ways that will exacerbate risks of mass atrocities. Roudabeh Kishi discusses how monitoring and early warning initiatives must adapt to changes in the information environment and the changing nature of atrocities. Dismas Nkunda focuses on how COVID-19 has affected civil society efforts to address mass atrocities. Finally, Jennifer Welsh discusses war crimes, “extreme atrocity,” and political barriers to effective prevention—three key issues for the prevention of mass atrocities over the coming decade.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, War Crimes, Inequality, Norms, Atrocities, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Solidarity in Isolation? Social Cohesion at a Time of Physical Distance

Author:
Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan and Aliyyah Ahad
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
In addition to its widespread public-health and economic impacts, the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged social cohesion in many countries by forcing changes in how people interact. Physical connection, the most human response to collective adversity, has been largely out of reach during long periods of lockdown, social distancing, and remote work and learning. The temporary closure of public spaces such as libraries and schools has also limited the spontaneous, casual encounters that can build bridges between disparate groups. This MPI Europe report explores ways to assess the pandemic’s effects on social capital and social infrastructure in Europe and North America. It also presents an initial analysis of how and where social cohesion is in peril and where it may actually be gaining strength, and highlights the importance of governments taking an inclusive approach and prioritizing social cohesion as societies move toward recovery. The authors identify three trends: Bridges between groups are weakening, even as new forms of connection may be strengthening bonds within existing networks. Immigrant integration programs have worked hard to move their offerings online, but digital tools may capture only a fraction of what in-person programming can and they may leave behind some people who most need assistance overcoming integration barriers, such as those with limited access to and familiarity with technology. A wide range of volunteering, mutual aid, and other grassroots forms of solidarity have emerged during the pandemic, but it remains to be seen which can make the switch from emergency response to longer-term engagement.
Topic:
Immigration, Citizenship, Integration, Social Cohesion, Social Capital, COVID-19, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and Global Focus

179. Future Scenarios for Global Mobility in the Shadow of Pandemic

Author:
Meghan Benton
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had an undeniable and wide-ranging impact on human mobility of all kinds—from travel for work or study to family reunification to refugee resettlement. More than 18 months since the first round of travel restrictions were introduced, it remains to be seen when and how fully these different forms of mobility will recover. This report explores possible scenarios for what international mobility could look like in two to three years as an exercise to help national governments and international organizations think through the potential impacts of different policy choices and approaches to pandemic management. It also identifies critical questions to address in the coming months and years, such as: What tools should be used in conjunction with vaccines to safely reopen travel, given concerns that the uneven vaccine rollout will deepen existing inequalities in access to mobility? And how can countries better coordinate health screening requirements to minimize unnecessary duplication and costs to travelers? Returning to the pre-pandemic status quo for travel and migration seems highly unlikely, and the structures that are being built now will shape mobility systems and responses to future disease outbreaks for years to come. A key priority, the author writes, should be to outgrow the current picture of fragmented, frequently shifting policies in favor of transparent, equitable, and risk-proportionate rules.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Mobility, Public Health, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Global Focus

180. Sustainable carbon removal

Author:
David R. Morrow and Simon Nicholson
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University
Abstract:
Carbon removal, which involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it, can help us meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The key question is not just how to make large-scale carbon removal operational, but how to make it sustainable. Sustainable practices balance environmental, social, and economic goals. Sustainable carbon removal balances those goals in order to meet the needs of the future without compromising the ability of current generations to meet their own needs. To operationalize this idea, we need to ask two questions: How should we measure the environmental, social, and economic impacts of carbon? How should we decide when carbon removal strikes the right balance between future and present needs? Analyzing carbon removal at different levels can illuminate environmental, social, and economic risks and opportunities. Levels of analysis range from broad technological categories, like reforestation, to specific projects, like Climeworks’ Orca direct air capture project in Iceland. Most analyses have focused on broad technological categories, but more fine-grained analyses are crucial for delivering actionable advice. Finding metrics for environmental, social, and economic impacts is vital for quantifying positive and negative impacts and comparing approaches. One possibility is to use the indicators for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which are politically negotiated, internationally accepted metrics of environmental, social, and economic sustainability. Determining which approaches are most sustainable requires balancing different positive and negative impacts that may not be easily comparable. There are several ways to do this, ranging from intuitive judgments to multicriteria decision analysis, although any decisions about which approaches are most sustainable are ultimately political decisions. In summary, to develop sustainable carbon removal, we need to identify sustainability metrics, such as the indicators behind the Sustainable Development Goals; apply those metrics at different levels of analysis; and develop strategies for determining which approaches strike the right balance between environmental, social, and economic goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

181. Self-Determination and Sea-Level Rise

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, Matthew Edbrooke, and Rana Ibrahem
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This report summarizes a workshop held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) and the Liechtenstein Mission to the United Nations, New York, between September and December 2020. The workshop and this report are products of LISD’s Project on Self-Determination, Environment, and Migration. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the workshop was divided into four seminars, taking place via video teleconference and under the Chatham House Rule.
Topic:
Environment, Migration, Self Determination, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

182. Gender, Law, and Security: Selected Student Research from the Project on Gender and the Global Community, 2019-2020

Author:
Barbara Buckinx, Beth English, Jake Gutman, Seoyoung Hong, Mikaylah Ladue, Katrin Lewis, and Liza Paudel
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
Who is the ‘self’ in self-determination? Feminist scholars and activists have long noted that, when self-determination means primarily non-interference in the internal affairs of a governing body, practices and traditions through which men dominate women can flourish. In order to fully realize the promise of the concept of self-determination, it is therefore best understood in both collective and individual forms. Women across the world have long sought to influence and shape the nature of their own lives, with a gendered understanding of power and how hierarchies of power are not only created and maintained, and perpetuate inequalities, but also how they can potentially be reorganized and remade. In this spirit, the research agenda and related activities of the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University’s Project on Gender in the Global Community (GGC) uses gender as a primary lens for analysis and starting point for broader dialogues about sustainable development, state building, economic and political participation, negotiation and mediation, peace, and security. The GGC Student Fellows Program, inaugurated during the 2017-18 academic year, has been an integral complement to this work. Building on student interest in the GGC project and modeled on the successful student fellows program organized as part of LISD’s Project on Religion, Diplomacy and International Relations (PORDIR), a dedicated student cohort of Princeton students ranging from first-year undergraduates to Ph.D. candidates and postdocs, were selected through a competitive application process. Over the course of the 2019-20 fellowship year, GGC fellows pursued independent, academically rigorous research, a sampling of which is presented in this publication. In December 2019, they presented their projects alongside peers from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs during a joint student research day. The papers in this volume include the written output of this independent work, which represents a variety of disciplines and methodologies and reflect the range of work undertaken by GGC students throughout the year.
Topic:
Governance, Law, Self Determination, Influence, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

183. Geopolitics of the World’s Forests: Strategies for Tackling Deforestation

Author:
Alain Karsenty
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Deforestation continues at a worrying pace worldwide, except in temperate and boreal countries. It is caused by the race for land, underpinned by population growth and rising global demand for “deforestation-prone” products. Moreover, with climate change, mega-fires are now posing unprecedented threats to forests. China has a major influence on the evolution of the world’s forests through its trade and investment in infrastructures for the Belt and Road Initiative. The country has stopped the exploitation of its natural forests, but it is using imports to meet its huge timber needs, while its demand for agricultural products carrying risks of deforestation is also growing, such as soybeans and palm oil. In Africa and Southeast Asia, large European forestry firms are in retreat, given the expansion of Asian firms (from Malaysia, China, and Vietnam), and agribusiness firms are gaining influence everywhere. Major reforestation operations are, at best, of limited effectiveness when they are not accompanied by the recognition of land rights, and when they lead to monoculture plantations with fast-growing tree species. By contrast, independent certifications appear to be essential tools for forest management and ensuring zero-deforestation production. Finally, the United Nations’ REDD+ mechanism pays countries that reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, or that increase their carbon stocks through plantations. Yet, REDD+ is criticized because it relies on reference scenarios: the anticipated emissions paths presented by the countries themselves. Moreover, it always faces the problem of the “non-permanence” of carbon storage in forests or plantations that may burn or simply die. At the same time, companies’ growing concerns to offset some of their emissions has generated strong demand for carbon credits from forest projects. Hundreds of “REDD+ projects” have emerged, relying on specific certifications to support the issuance of carbon credits in “voluntary markets.” This entails risks of double-counting emission reductions at the national level. Moreover, the uncertain additionality and the risks of “leakage” (shifting deforestation pressures elsewhere) cast doubt on the environmental integrity of these private initiatives. Finally, the success of “REDD+ projects” remains conditional on taking into account the problems of land security of rural inhabitants, a key factor in reforestation, and in their access to land. While institutionalized consensuses continue to pile up, there is in fact an urgent need to reconsider existing instruments, taking into account systemic and political economy questions which are too often ignored. The 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) is scheduled to take place in China in October 2021, and needs to participate in the necessary leap forward on global forest governance: The principle of “results-based payment” (RBP) should be complemented by broad support for the investments needed to “produce” these results. It should only retain the coherence of public policies that have real potential impacts on forests as an essential criterion for assessing results. The demand for products linked to deforestation must be strictly controlled. Governments should review trade agreements with countries that encourage land-forest conversion and include measures to tackle deforestation that are legally binding. Imports of products involved in illegal deforestation must be banned, and tariffs must favor products certified as involving zero deforestation. Developing countries should be helped to implement incentive-based environmental taxation to support agricultural production based on zero-deforestation and sustainable forests. Fiscally neutral bonus-malus systems could favor traced and certified production and penalize production whose origin is uncertain and presumably unsustainable. A common agenda for food security, tackling deforestation and restoring degraded natural ecosystems needs to be built with developing countries. Ecological intensification through peasant-farmer agroecology, crop-livestock associations and agroforestry should become priorities. Necessary investments could be channeled through programs of payments for ecosystem services (PES). Finally, the forest concession regimes must evolve to include the recognition of overlapping rights, the commercial management of new resources and the sharing of profits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

184. The Global Quest for Sustainability: The Role of Green Infrastructure in a Post-Pandemic World

Author:
Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the pandemic, global demand for infrastructure is booming. National plans around the world show that infrastructure is likely to provide the backbone for a resurgence in public expenditure, and to support growth in economies badly hit by the pandemic. As all the biggest powers and blocs (the EU, the US, China, and Japan) have recently announced their plans for climate or carbon neutrality, the room and need for green and sustainable infrastucture are greatly expanding. Decarbonisation and digitalisation will be underpinning this latest investment drive in infrastructure, with sustainability and ESG principles at its core. However, infrastructure expenditure will not come without risk: after the pandemic, the world will be left with the highest levels of public and private debt since World War II, and the sustainability of key investment decisions must be carefully evaluated. How to foster quality and sustainable infrastructure investment? What role for the private sector? What future for sustainable mobility? What kind of policies will countries adopt to reach carbon neutrality?
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

185. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

186. Monitoring Online Political Advertising: A Toolkit

Author:
Barbara Jouan Stonestreet and Michael Baldassaro
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
During an electoral process, electoral actors, whether contestants or noncontestants, have the right to advertise political ideas in accordance with the right of expression. However, political advertising may be subject to reasonable limitations through regulations imposed by domestic law, including who can run political advertisements, when and where they may run advertisements, restrictions on advertising expenditure levels, and reporting and disclosure requirements to ensure transparency, accountability, and a level playing field. Increasingly, election contestants and noncontestants are using social media platforms to advertise political ideas.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Internet, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

187. Our Identities under Arrest

Author:
Kellyn Botha
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
Abstract:
Arrests and prosecutions for consensual same-sex sexual acts, or for diverse gender expressions, continue unabated across the world. And yet, they are considerably under-reported. Our Identities Under Arrest is a brand-new publication by ILGA World offering a global overview of the enforcement of laws criminalising consensual same-sex sexual acts between adults and diverse gender expressions. The report reviews hundreds of cases in which law enforcements subjected LGBT and gender-diverse persons to fines, arbitrary arrests, prosecutions, corporal punishments, imprisonments and more – up to (possibly) the death penalty. Governments often argue that criminalising laws are ‘dormant’, but this report offers evidence that such claims are largely inaccurate. How – and how often – they are enforced can vary abruptly and in unpredictable ways, making both our communities on the ground and asylum seekers who managed to flee live perpetually under threat. The Our Identities under Arrest report will be of great value to the advocacy work of human rights defenders. It will assist asylum seekers and the legal experts working on their cases. And it will provide researchers, media outlets, governmental and global agencies with the necessary information to build a holistic picture of how the criminalisation on the grounds of sexual orientation, gender identity, and gender expression really looks like.
Topic:
Human Rights, Law Enforcement, LGBT+, and Criminalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

188. Peace Through Food: Ending the Hunger-Instability Nexus

Author:
Kelly M. McFarland
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
In the twentieth century, humankind made phenomenal steps to increase food production. But today, complex and interrelated issues drive an increase in food insecurity globally, and propel conflict, migration, and human insecurity. Nearly a billion people, at a minimum, are malnourished or suffer the pains of hunger—while the world wastes a third of food produced. This pain, or the fear of it, drives political instability and conflict as people seek reliable access to food. Adverse climate events, poor resource management, disease outbreaks, breakdowns in distribution, and profit-driven research and development, among other factors, have led to structural imbalances and inequities in the food system, which limit consistent access to nutrition for an increasing number of people. In spring 2021, the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy convened a series of working group meetings with participants representing academia, think tanks, government, international organizations, NGOs, and the private sector. The group mapped out the current state of global food systems, discussed the relationship between hunger and conflict, and sought ways to establish food security as a means to promote stability and end conflict. Ultimately, an end to food insecurity requires three strands of policymaking: re-envision food security as a basic human right; re-think universal food security as a core component of stability and peace; and reform the global food system and distribution networks to address these shifts. Governments, NGOs, international organizations, and the private sector have already provided a foundation, but it is not yet sufficient to address the issue moving forward.
Topic:
Food, Food Security, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

189. 2021 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:
WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Women, Leadership, and Representation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

190. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume III, South Asian Perspectives

Author:
Peter Topychkanov, Sanatan Kulshrestha, Yanitra Kumaraguru, Malinda Meegoda, Kritika Roy, Saima Aman Sial, Dmitry Stefanovich, and Maaike Verbruggen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This edited volume is the third in a series of three. The series forms part of a SIPRI project that explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in artificial intelligence could have on nuclear weapons and doctrines, as well as on strategic stability and nuclear risk. This volume assembles the perspectives of eight experts on South Asia on why and how machine learning and autonomy may become the focus of an arms race among nuclear-armed states. It further explores how the adoption of these technologies may have an impact on their calculation of strategic stability and nuclear risk at the regional and transregional levels.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Political stability, Disarmament, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, East Asia, and Global Focus

191. Towards Greater Nuclear Restraint: Raising the Threshold for Nuclear Weapon Use

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report focuses on the risks that a lack of nuclear restraint pose for international security. On the one hand, the problem has to do with uncertainty regarding the first use of nuclear weapons, which has increased in recent years as a result of technological developments, political tensions, and the deadlock in nuclear arms control. On the other hand, there is a longer-term trend of a lowering nuclear threshold in response to WMD proliferation threats by non-nuclear weapon states. After identifying some of the most problematic aspects of the current nuclear policies of the five nuclear weapon states (NWS), the report makes the case for greater restraint, including recommendations for reducing doctrinal ambiguity and more credible assurances that the threshold for nuclear weapon use remains high. The report also seeks to provide conceptual tools for a broad international dialogue on nuclear doctrines, based on a recent agreement by the NWS to pursue such dialogue in the 1968 Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT) context.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Global Focus

192. Catalyzing Consensus around Global Commitments

Author:
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
An international consensus to meet contemporary challenges will develop primarily around defending against shared threats. If the United States is to turn this consensus into collaboration to strengthen security, it must stake out a clear vision of its primary threats and missions. As has become evident over the last few years, doing so will necessarily require adaptations to ally dynamics and disruptions to some international organizations, treaties, and agreements. These changes should not reflexively cause concern that the United States is “withdrawing from the world stage” or has “abandoned its leadership role”; rather, these disruptions are necessary to recalibrate international efforts to rise to contemporary challenges. As part of the US initiative to build consensus, Washington should be especially sensitive to and supportive of those allied and partner efforts already underway that align with US security priorities. It should seek to maximize their effectiveness, in turn providing an incentive for other nations to do the same.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, International Organization, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

193. Democracy by Design: An Affirmative Response to the Illiberal Use of Technology for 2021

Author:
Kara Frederick
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Aglobal contest between democracies and autocracies is raging on the digital front. Technology stands to alter the balance between free, open societies and closed, repressive regimes. Nation states in direct competition with the United States seek to project global influence by shaping an existing digital order to their will. Impulses toward illiberal use of technology at home threaten to curtail individual liberties, constrict opportunity, and erode a truly open society. Democracies do not yet have a model for how to confront this. In the United States, a roadmap for a solution must start with the fundamental question: How should U.S. technology companies, with the help of the U.S. government, respond to the illiberal use of technology by authoritarian actors abroad? This report contends with this question by identifying concrete actions and threat-mitigating strategies that contain the input of government, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. It provides starting points to address the systemic risk inherent in dealing with authoritarian regimes and also examines cost imposition on those complicit in tech-enabled human rights abuses. Yet a strategy aimed only at staunching the illiberal use of technology will fail in the long term. Instead, the U.S. government and tech companies alike must recruit democratic allies to purvey an affirmative agenda that promotes digital freedom across the globe. This report proposes an agenda that stresses privacy leadership by the United States and its technology companies. It identifies areas of collaboration for U.S. allies and democratic partners, like digital trade, foreign law enforcement requests for data, and technical standards. This report’s affirmative agenda also contains an imperative for U.S. tech companies to build commercial norms toward digital freedom and incentivize transparency within their own ranks. For digital freedom to prevail over authoritarian uses of technology, democracies must present something better. Together, they must establish an alternative model for the use of technology globally. These recommendations build that democratic case, starting with the United States.
Topic:
Human Rights, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

194. Toward a More Proliferated World? The Geopolitical Forces that Will Shape the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Eric M. Brewer, Ilan Goldenberg, Joseph Rodgers, Maxwell Simon, and Kaleigh Thomas
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The United States and the international community have been relatively successful at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, but there are new reasons to question whether this track record will last into the future. Working with partners, the United States has steadily built a framework of disincentives and barriers to prevent proliferation. These include: 1) international treaties and agreements that have erected legal, political, and normative barriers to the bomb; 2) U.S. security commitments to allies that dampen their own perceived need for nuclear weapons; and, 3) a set of tough penalties (e.g., sanctions) for those who get caught trying to build the bomb. In other words, the barriers to entry to the nuclear club are high, and those countries that want the ultimate weapon need to be willing to accept significant risks. This helps explain why, although many countries have explored or pursued nuclear weapons, only nine states have them today. But several trends are eroding the foundation on which this formidable set of barriers rests. These trends are rooted in, and being shaped by, changes to the nature and structure of the international system: namely, the decline of U.S. influence and its gradual withdrawal from the international order that it helped create and lead for more than 70 years, and the concurrent rise of a more competitive security environment, particularly among great powers. These trends (detailed below) will have three broad implications for proliferation and U.S. policy. First, they stand to increase pressures on countries to seek nuclear weapons or related capabilities as a hedge. Second, they will almost certainly challenge the U.S. ability to effectively wield the traditional “carrots and sticks” of nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy and dilute the effectiveness of those tools. Finally, they could increasingly pit U.S. nonproliferation goals against other policy objectives, forcing harder tradeoffs.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

195. Rebooting Congressional Cybersecurity Oversight

Author:
Carrie Cordero and David Thaw
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
Cybersecurity oversight is due for a reboot. This paper explores the need for refreshed congressional oversight of cybersecurity. After laying out why cybersecurity oversight presents special challenges, this paper suggests that the disparate nature of the cybersecurity policymaking legal framework is mismatched to the nature of the cybersecurity problem, resulting in difficulty legislating in this space. It then provides two key recommendations to guide a congressional cybersecurity oversight reboot. Cybersecurity is a broad challenge spanning many disciplines and industries. This paper argues that the current “patchwork” legal framework is ill suited to address cybersecurity questions either for legislative oversight or effective policymaking. The paper provides an overview of the nature and scope of the cybersecurity problem, with a focus on how the complexity of the field affects congressional oversight activities. Congress has been conducting a substantial amount of oversight in this area in recent years. Those efforts, however, have not yet resulted in legislative actions that have demonstrably improved national cybersecurity. This paper seeks to aid the effort to craft legal authorities that deal with an increasingly complex set of cyberthreats. This short exposition provides a path to rebooting Congress’ approach to cybersecurity oversight in a way that would allow these issues to be addressed more comprehensively.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

196. The Terrorist Lists: An Examination of the U.S. Government’s Counterterrorism Designations Efforts

Author:
Seth Loertscher, Daniel Milton, Bryan C. Price, and Cynthia Loertscher
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
After the attacks of September 2001, the U.S. government grappled with ways to apply all aspects of its national power against the terrorist groups it found itself combating militarily. On the diplomatic and financial fronts, much of this increased effort revolved around the sanctioning and designating of terrorist groups and individual terrorist actors, resulting in a drastic increase of the number of individuals and groups which were branded with the term “terrorist.” Yet despite the application of these tools for almost 20 years, or longer in some cases, little work has been done to understand the impact of these programs. This report examines two sanctioning efforts the U.S. government has employed against terrorist actors: the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list and the designation of individuals as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs) under the authority granted by Executive Order 13224. Although the specific purposes of each of these programs differ from one another, ultimately both represent a non-kinetic approach to counterterrorism that relies on the application of diplomatic and/or financial statecraft. The examination of each of these programs in this report has two general goals. The first is to provide an overview of the program and descriptive statistics regarding its implementation. The second is to provide some form of assessment regarding the impact that these programs have on terrorist groups and individuals. In accomplishing these two goals, the authors relied exclusively on open-source information collected by researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). This report attempts to provide a deeper understanding of the impacts of these tools, in addition to highlighting some of the structural limitations and gaps in the application of counterterrorism sanctions.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, Hamas, and Abu Sayyaf
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Global Focus, and United States of America

197. Small Groups, Big Weapons: The Nexus of Emerging Technologies and Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism

Author:
Stephen Hummel and F. John Burpo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Historically, only nation-states have had the capacity and resources to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD) due to the significant capital, infrastructure, and intellectual capacity required to develop and maintain a WMD program. In recent years, however, this paradigm has been shifting, particularly for non-state actors. The commercialization of emerging technologies is reducing the financial, intellectual, and material barriers required for WMD development and employment. This report surveys three emerging technologies—synthetic biology, additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing), and unmanned aerial systems—and examines the nexus of each with nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons agent proliferation. It examines how non-state actors might use these emerging technologies to overcome traditional barriers against the development and employment of WMD. This product, a joint collaboration of the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point, is a timely primer for policymakers, scientists, and security specialists concerned with the impact of emerging technologies on WMD development and terrorists’ capabilities broadly.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

198. Enforcement of Drug Laws: Refocusing on Organized Crime Elite

Author:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Commission On Drug Policy
Abstract:
In this first report of this decade, the Global Commission on Drug Policy outlines how the current international drug control regime works for the benefit of transnational organized crime. It highlights how years of repressive policies targeted at nonviolent drug offenders have resulted in mass incarceration and produced countless adverse impacts on public health, the rule of law, and social cohesion, whilst at the same time reinforcing criminal elites. The report argues that the top layers of criminal organizations must be disempowered, through policy responses and political will. It provides implementable recommendations for the replacement of the current policy of targeting non-violent drug offenders and resorting to mass incarceration. Law enforcement must focus on the most dangerous and protected actors and primary drivers of the corruption, violence, and chaos around illegal drug markets. The control of psychoactive substances in a rational and efficient way must be centered on people and their needs, and on a repressive approach against criminal elites who benefit from the illegal drug markets’ proceeds, and have access to high-level networks, financial and legal support as needed. Only responsible legal regulation of currently prohibited drugs, with careful implementation, has the potential to disrupt criminal organizations and deprive them of their most lucrative sources of income. The report contains research on the prerequisites for a successful transition towards the reform of the outdated ideology-based international drug control regime, and provides cutting-edge recommendations on how to ensure that international criminal organizations are effectively disempowered by the transition towards a legally regulated drug market under the control of governments.
Topic:
Crime, Health, War on Drugs, Drugs, Public Health, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

199. Charting a New Course: Women, Peace and Security, and the Maritime Domain

Author:
Sahana Dharmapuri, Pamela Tansey, and Lexie Van Buskirk
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Our Secure Future
Abstract:
The Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale. Passed in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating more effective international peace and security policies. Since 2000, more than 80 countries have adopted Women, Peace and Security National Action Plans and other policies to robustly implement the WPS agenda. In 2017, the US Congress adopted the Women, Peace, and Security Act to incorporate the principle of gender equality into US foreign policy. The two main objectives of the WPS agenda are to 1) increase the representation of women in decision-making positions, and 2) to apply a gender perspective to matters of international peace and security.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Gender Issues, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

200. Do Americans Face Greater Mental Health and Economic Consequences from COVID-19? Comparing the U.S. with Other High-Income Countries

Author:
Michelle M. Doty, Eric C. Schneider, Roosa Tikkanen, Arnav Shah, and Reginald D. Williams II
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Commonwealth Fund
Abstract:
With more than 4 million confirmed cases and 150,000 deaths as of August, the United States is failing to control the COVID-19 pandemic. At a time when many nations are reopening their economies and societies, the U.S. is struggling in its attempts to do the same. To examine the early impact of the pandemic on the well-being of adults in the U.S. and abroad, the Commonwealth Fund joined the survey research firm SSRS to interview 8,259 adults age 18 and older between March and May 2020. It is the latest in the Commonwealth Fund’s series of cross-national comparisons featuring the United States and nine other high-income countries that participate in the Fund’s annual International Health Policy Survey. The following exhibits illustrate COVID-19’s effects on people’s mental health and economic security and compare levels of public trust in national leaders in responding to the pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Mental Health, and Public Health
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Global Focus