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1. UK-EU Relations Tracker Q3

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Released quarterly, the UK in a Changing Europe UK-EU Relations Tracker assesses relations between the UK and EU as well as relationships between the UK and EU member states. This edition of the tracker covers developments from July to September 2023. On 1 October, the UK government introduced the green-lane/red-lane system to ease the flow of goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland as part of the Windsor Framework. In the context of thawing relations post Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reiterated their commitment to making the most of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The political agreement on the UK’s association to the Horizon and Copernicus programmes was an important milestone. In other areas, the tracker notes that discussions are ongoing. On the future of the relationship, the tracker highlights a growing mismatch between debates on the two sides. Within the UK, the Labour Party have set out plans for building on the TCA in pursuit of a closer trading relationship. The EU, on the other hand, shows little appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is therefore shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Trade Balances and International Competitiveness in Cyber-physical, Digital Task-intensive, ICT Capital-intensive and Traditional Industries

Author:
Alexandra Bykova and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
In this report, we analyse the international competitiveness of the EU in four industry groups over the period 1995-2018. The groups are delineated by specific factor intensities, where these intensities are assessed from digital tasks performed by labour services and ICT capital stocks. The EU’s positions relating to trade balances, revealed comparative advantages and unit value ratios are assessed relative to its main competitors, such as the US, China, Japan and South Korea. The trade specialisation patterns confirm EU advantages in traditional industries, which still represent the largest part of global trade, and in the group of digital task-intensive industries. In the cyber-physical group of industries, which are characterised by both high digital task and ICT capital intensities, the EU records a trade deficit, although this has been receding in recent years. Competitiveness indicators depict heterogeneity among EU countries. The loss of international competitiveness for some technology front-runners is a worrying sign. On the positive side, however, a reduction in trade deficits or an improvement in product quality and market shares is evident for certain EU countries, especially in the Central European region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Digitalization, and International Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

3. The Future of Arms Control: Ready to (Dis)Agree?

Author:
Tõnis Idarand, Kalev Stoicescu, and Ian Anthony
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Having been crumbling already for years, international arms control architecture is now in a perilous state. Existing arrangements have either been losing their effectiveness or outright failing due to Russia’s non-compliance, whilst Russia’s aggression against Ukraine might have delivered the final blow to this system. Even after the war in Ukraine has ended, it will take years to re-establish the level of trust necessary to, again, engage with Russia on arms control. The return to the pre-war ‘business as usual’, where the dialogue will resume as if never interrupted, is unlikely. Arms control dialogue with Russia ‘at any cost’ cannot produce an acceptable result. Arms control as we have known it, with its legally binding and verifiable agreements, may have come to an end. The trends emerging from the expert discussions are more focused on a different set of instruments, such as political commitments, risk reduction, or transparency and confidence building measures. Development of new technologies, proliferation of new weapon systems, the rise of China as a global player, and increasing role of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Russian and Chinese military doctrines will all have an impact on global arms control. The fate of the New START Treaty will have a decisive effect on the future of arms control and the prospects of the nuclear non-proliferation regime already under immense pressure. This report attempts to summarise the developments in arms control architecture over the last decades and accentuate the trends that might be consequential when designing the arms control system of the future. The year 2023 has already demonstrated that arms control is less relevant in Russia’s security thinking. Moscow exploits the existing arrangements mainly as leverage to influence the US and NATO’s policy towards Ukraine or obtain concessions regarding its proposals on the new European security arrangements. The role of arms control in European security might be in decline, but the key elements of European security architecture are still in place, and most states continue to implement them. NATO allies – when discussing and designing arms control or confidence-building measures – shall consider how these instruments advance the security of allies. Under the current circumstances, the priority is to strengthen defence and deterrence of the Alliance. This is the only way to lay the groundwork for a constructive arms control dialogue with Russia.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, Nonproliferation, Trade, and Military
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

4. EU-Pacific Talks: Trade relations with the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Eliška Prostřední
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Overall, the debate focused on the diversification of global trading partners and how to achieve it. Speakers also discussed the threats associated with dependence on only a few strong countries, which can then take the position of rule makers. The whole debate was linked to the possibilities of global trade with countries that are part of the Indo-Pacific region. Writes Eliska Prostřední in her report on the debate "EU-Pacific Talks: Trade relations with the Indo-Pacific".
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Partnerships, Diversification, Trade, Debates, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Europe and Indo-Pacific

5. The Strategic Repositioning of LNG: Implications for Key Trade Routes and Choke Points

Author:
Leslie Palti-Guzman and Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
2022 saw the climax so far of the weaponization of energy. Following its geopolitical demise, Russia has undertaken its own gas amputation, moving from a super energy power status to a diminished role with uncertain prospects and only hard options left. Russia has cut off almost entirely pipeline gas supplies to the European Union (EU), first inflicting huge financial pain and collecting record high revenues, but then simply losing out its largest and best market with no realistic alternative, and no prospect of any significant return. However, the Kremlin could still further reduce some of the remaining pipeline gas or liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and thus cause some tensions in the markets. Russia also retains leverage on oil markets, where the Kremlin managed to cope with the embargo as well as the price cap and maintain the relationship with Saudi Arabia which drives OPEC+ decisions. Meanwhile, in 2022, the European energy system has managed to surprisingly adapt on the supply and demand side to the three shocks: the decoupling from Russian energy supplies, the hydropower generation crisis, and the French nuclear electricity crisis. Liquefied natural gas has made a comeback in Europe and has been a savior of industries, governments, and populations. The LNG corridor between the EU and the United States (U.S.) has become the most dominant LNG trade route in 2022. This came at a huge cost though – EU’s gas import bill soared ten times from 2020 and three times from 2021 levels. For 2023, the European gas balance is much more fragile, as the demand reduction potential has reached its limits, same for the ability to attract additional non-Russian exports to Europe, at a time when missing Russian volumes will probably reach 120 billion cubic meters (bcm), instead of about 77 bcm in 2022. More moderate price levels since November 2022 have clearly overshadowed this fundamental mismatch, especially as the weather has been mild and China was still struggling with the pandemic. With an additional 30-40 bcm of missing Russian gas to offset in 2023 compared to 2022, Europeans can be expected to benefit from an extra gas of around 20-25 bcm left in storages thanks to mild weather and available LNG. They have no choice but to continue saving energy in a hurry, that is both on gas and electricity. Gas demand in power generation had increased in the first nine months of 2022 before falling in Q4 2022, and well over 15 bcm can be saved here in 2023 as more nuclear is available altogether, alongside more renewables, and some coal. It will be critical to reduce peak loads though. The key improvement is in terms of logistics, with the massive new LNG import capacity deployed across Europe. Overall, EU’s import situation will be very tensed and fragile for the next winter. The key challenge is that EU’s gas supply security ultimately depends on the weather in Europe, China’s and Japan’s LNG demand, and weather or technical outages in the Gulf of Mexico or in other producers. Any slight disruptions in supplies can have major impacts. As a last resort, bringing back some Groningen supplies, no matter how politically sensitive this would be, must be considered and prepared. Large financial compensations and effective governmental action would notably be required to offset the hardships.
Topic:
European Union, Gas, Exports, Trade, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

6. UK trade tracker Q3 2023

Author:
Stephen Hunsaker
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The UK in a Changing Europe trade tracker is now being produced quarterly and in a new format. The new format trade tracker will focus on three key areas: UK trade and its performance relative to historical data; UK trade in a global context and how it compares to the G7; and finally, newsworthy developments which have occurred within trade in the last quarter. In this quarter’s edition, the trade tracker looks at how UK trade measures compare to 2019 as well as the proportion of total UK trade made up of trade with the EU. In addition, it looks at the UK’s trade balance and trade openness compared to the G7. Lastly, the tracker summarises the India-UK free trade agreement that has been in the works for the past few years, considering whether it is close to signing and what impact it might have on UK trade, as well as what elements are hotly debated.
Topic:
Economy, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7. Reviewing the Trade and Cooperation Agreement: potential paths

Author:
Jannike Wachowiak and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve 2020 the UK and EU finally agreed a treaty to regulate their relationship post Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was provisionally applied from 1 January 2021 and formally ratified in April. Among its numerous provisions, the treaty contains Article 776 stating that, ‘The Parties shall jointly review the implementation of this Agreement and supplementing agreements and any matters related thereto five years after the entry into force of this Agreement and every five years thereafter.’ Within the UK at least, many are looking to this review to deliver significant changes to the relationship. This report examines those provisions within the TCA and reflects on what might or might not reasonably be achieved in the context of the review. The report proposes three models which the review could follow: a technical check, acting on unfulfilled commitments, and widening the scope of the TCA.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. UK-EU relations tracker: April – June 2023

Author:
Cleo Davies and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the UKICE UK-EU Relations Tracker, covering developments in relations between the UK and EU and between the UK and EU member states from April to June 2023. This edition looks at key developments in the relationship since the formal adoption of the Windsor Framework on 24 March 2023 which had raised hopes for a reset in relations. Whilst some progress has been made within the framework of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), other areas remain stalled.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. Where next? The future of the UK-EU relationship

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Six and a half years since the Brexit referendum, UK relations with the EU have still not settled into a coherent and consistent pattern. Partly, this is because the process of leaving itself took so long. Partly, too, because there is much still to resolve, not least whether the treaties signed will be fully applied. This report examines the contours of that relationship. It assesses both where we have got to and how the relationship might evolve. The reports sets out the state of play on trade, migration, public opinion, as well as the various party positions on the relationship. It also highlights the deadlines and decisions on the horizon in a number of areas, such as financial services, electric vehicles and fisheries. Finally, it examines the ways in which the TCA could be deepened, and steps that might be taken beyond the TCA – both unilaterally and through increased cooperation with the EU – concluding that changes to the relationship are likely to be slow and incremental.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. A Strategic Challenge: A Peddling Peril Index Analysis of Countries’ Restricted Russia Trade

Author:
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
National trade control systems and sanctions enforcement across the globe have been particularly challenged by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the unexpected types and number of goods to control, the need for rapid control of those items, and Russia’s determination to thwart others’ trade controls. The Russian situation demonstrates that even countries with strong strategic trade control systems have vulnerabilities. • In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the results of the Peddling Peril Index (PPI) for 2021/2022 provide a method to assess a total of 31 countries identified by their respective roles in the transshipment of restricted goods or the supply of dual-use goods used by the Russian military. • The purpose of this study is to identify patterns in these countries’ scores and lessons in finding ways of thwarting Russia’s success in violating sanctions and export controls.
Topic:
Sanctions, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

11. Manufacturing after Brexit

Author:
David Bailey and Ivan Rajic
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
In mid-2020, UK in a Changing Europe published its report on the effects of Brexit on UK manufacturing, and the likely effects after the end of the transition period. The present report is an updated view of where UK manufacturing stands after Brexit. The report finds: The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) helped avoid tariff barriers. However, non-tariff barriers have returned, and the end of the transition period has brought adverse impacts for UK manufacturing. The TCA does not fully replace the frictionless trade and market integration that existed before it. The main adverse effects have been: administrative barriers to trade (e.g. customs formalities, proving rules-of-origin requirements) disruptions to labour flows, both affecting certain manufacturing sectors directly (e.g. food and drinks) and indirectly harming manufacturing by damaging service sectors (e.g. logistics) that support it. The adverse impacts are for now mainly showing through reduced exports and imports to and from the EU (around 15% less for both, as compared to a no-Brexit scenario), and through some production disruptions. The ongoing conflicts around Northern Ireland probably represent the biggest risk to UK-EU relations, with the potential to affect the entire TCA in case they escalate. Potential benefits from Brexit have yet to be felt: – There has been some redirection of exports towards non-EU countries, but this has not compensated for the reduction in trade with the EU. The UK has signed only two truly new trade agreements, with New Zealand and Australia, the former still only ‘in principle’. Both countries account for a small fraction of total UK trade, and the expected benefits of the trade agreements with them are minor. Trade negotiations with the US are currently stalled. Whether there is more progress on the trade front in the future remains to be seen. If there is more regulatory divergence from the EU going forward, it will become possible to see whether it will bring benefits or disruptions to UK manufacturers. Any benefits that may potentially arise out of Brexit will not happen automatically. The UK needs an active, integrated, and well-funded industrial policy, within a stronger devolution framework, if UK manufacturing is to benefit from future growth opportunities. This is especially the case in the context of net zero, industry 4.0 and levelling up. The impact of Brexit on manufacturing is likely to be most profound in regions in the north and midlands. That in turn will make levelling up more challenging.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done, but what does it mean? Doing things differently? Policy after Brexit brings together a number experts in their respective fields to investigate how policy and policymaking have changed in a range of sectors. We asked them to consider how changes so far compare to what was promised before Brexit, and to analyse what changes lie ahead and what their impact might be. Their contributions are divided into three sections: first, those policy areas (trade, immigration, agriculture, fisheries and subsidies) where Brexit compelled the UK to put in place alternative policies. Second, those retaining significant amounts of EU law where the government could think seriously about divergence (financial services, procurement, taxation, consumer protection, environmental policy, energy policy and aviation). A final section considers new or emergent sectors in which both the UK and EU are looking to dip their regulatory toes (climate change and net zero, data and digital, autonomous vehicles and bioscience).
Topic:
Agriculture, Immigration, European Union, Regulation, Brexit, Trade, Fishing, Subsidies, and Policymaking
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. A new formula for collaboration: Turkey, the EU & North Africa

Author:
Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over recent years, relations between Turkey and the European Union (EU) have been difficult and driven more by crisis management rather than equal partnership. Yet, despite this downward spiral, both blocs remain key partners on domains such as trade, migration and counterterrorism and repeatedly express their interest in developing a more cooperative and constructive relationship. This report is a product of the ‘Searching for a New Formula for collaboration between Turkey and the EU in/with North Africa’ project, which investigated the extent to which Turkey and the EU could collaborate in and with North Africa, more specifically, Morocco, Egypt and Algeria. North Africa was chosen because it offers an underexplored area of research for Turkey-EU relations; Morocco, Egypt and Algeria were selected for specific study as they are the countries with which both Turkey and the EU have the highest trade volumes in the region. Moreover, there are currently no joint projects between Turkey and the EU in Morocco, Algeria or Egypt, although the region is an area of strategic importance for both Turkey and the EU. The recent war in Ukraine has also increased the value of North Africa as a provider of agricultural products and gas for the region. Libya and Tunisia were excluded from the research to narrow the scope of the project. To avoid the traps of reproducing ‘neo-colonial’ or ‘neo-Ottoman’ discourses and of following a top-down approach, this study used action research as a democratic, participatory and collaborative research methodology. It engaged diverse participants from Turkey, the EU and North Africa in semi-structured in-depth interviews, conferences and a survey. Through a cyclical process, the study devised a tripartite collaborative model and concrete project ideas under five major policy options in which cooperation between Turkey, the EU, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt could be actionable. This report gives a detailed account of the abovementioned tripartite collaborative model and the subsequent project ideas which were designed to be mutually beneficial for all three blocs –Turkey, the EU and North Africa. It should, nevertheless, be mentioned that current geopolitical uncertainties in the wider region could challenge the implementation of these projects. The civil war in Libya, the political tension between Turkey and Egypt or Morocco and Algeria, and the influence of China and Russia in the region could pose potential risks for collaboration. However, we maintain that such uncertainties make it even more timely to seek opportunities for a future collaborative environment in the Mediterranean as, ‘if the Mediterranean is weak, all Mediterranean countries are weak’.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, European Union, Crisis Management, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and North Africa

14. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?

Author:
Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

15. Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

16. Make Foreign Policy Feminist. A Feminist Foreign Policy Manifesto for Germany

Author:
Nina Bernarding, Kristina Lunz, Sheena Anderson, Antonia Baskakov, Damjan Denkovski, Annika Kreitlow, and Anna Provan
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
This manifesto intends to encourage and support those inside the next government to begin the process of systematically changing how Germany’s foreign policy operates, whom it is made for, and whom it is informed by. It introduces what a Feminist Foreign Policy would look like for Germany, including a proposed definition of a German Feminist Foreign Policy. We analyse existing German Federal Foreign Policy and outline principles of a German Feminist Foreign Policy and its priority areas, presenting action items (recommendations) for a radically different way of conducting foreign policy. Among many other topics, we address climate justice, demilitarisation, health, trade and peace & security.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Health, Feminism, Peace, Trade, Climate Justice, and Demilitarization
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

17. Brexit and Beyond: economy

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its consequences for the economy, from its impact upon inequality, employment, and public finances, to future prospects for British trade outside of the EU.
Topic:
European Union, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and Public Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

18. Covid or Brexit?

Author:
Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Alan Wager, Sarah Overton, and Joël Reland
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The world is emerging from the COVID pandemic, with society and the economy opening up again. The immediate impact has been widespread supply and labour shortages, and rising inflation. But for the UK, the issue is not simply that of post-pandemic disruption, but also the early impacts of the decision to leave the European Union, replacing our membership of the Single Market and customs union with a minimal free trade deal. In what follows, we explore the extent to which current problems in the UK economy are down solely to post pandemic disruption or also the result of the altered terms of trade and labour mobility with the EU.
Topic:
Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

19. The impact of Brexit on UK services

Author:
Sarah Hall and Martin Heneghan
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The service sector stands as a clear exemplar of the trade-offs entailed by Brexit. The emphasis placed by the government on reclaiming regulatory autonomy during the negotiations over the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), and the particular importance of ending freedom of movement had particularly serious consequences for those who import or export services. In this report, Sarah Hall, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe and Martin Heneghan, Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham explore the consequences to date of Brexit, and particularly of the TCA, for service providers.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, Services, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

20. Transatlantic tools: Harmonizing US and EU approaches to China

Author:
David Barkin and Agatha Kratz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Close cooperation between the United States and the European Union is essential if advanced economies are to develop effective responses to the array of challenges presented by China. Washington and Brussels share concerns regarding competitive distortions arising through the state’s role in the Chinese economy, the use of advanced technologies to repress ethnic minorities and fuel its military, and the spread of authoritarian influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, there has been a lack of coordination and cooperation in recent years between the US and EU when it comes to responding to China’s policies and behaviors. Washington’s focus on risks to US economic and national security contrasts with an emphasis in Brussels on ensuring reciprocity and leveling the economic playing field. But, with the transatlantic relationship back on a better footing under the Biden administration, new structures for transatlantic dialogue being put in place, and a greater focus on the Indo-Pacific in both Washington and Brussels, this paper argues there is now an opportunity for the United States and Europe to learn from each other and harmonize some of their China-related efforts.
Topic:
Human Rights, Markets, Sanctions, European Union, Regulation, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

21. UK Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission Final Report

Author:
LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission was convened in 2019 to establish a strategic direction for a new age of foreign economic policy, to understand the domestic ramifications of changes to the UK’s trade agenda, and to present recommendations that may best advance the UK’s priorities at home and abroad. The aim of the Report is to position the UK optimally in a changed 21st century global economy while maintaining the UK’s support for an open, multilateral trade and rules-based international system. The Report proposes a refined economic diplomacy framework that seeks to balance commercial openness with strategic domestic and foreign policy aims, broadly defined.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

22. EU – Japan Economic Partnership Agreement: Strengthening economic ties as a way out of recession

Author:
Jana Záhořová
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Today, Japan remains an important international trading partner of the EU. Following China, Japan is the EU’s second-most important trading partner in Asia. According to experts from the European Commission, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia and the University of Pavia, the EU-Japan EPA is a success because it is a great example of a higher degree of economic integration that can put pressure on other countries to feel obliged to adhere to free trade rules rather than protectionism.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

23. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030

Author:
Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Production and Trade of ICT from an EU Perspective

Author:
Amat Adarov, Dimitrios Exadaktylos, Mahdi Ghodsi, Robert Stehrer, and Roman Stöllinger
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The competitiveness of industries and countries is shaped more and more by technological advancement in the production and use of information and communications technology (ICT). This report considers the supply side of ICT goods and services. It studies the drivers of ICT production location and trade across countries with a focus on the relative position of the EU. The analyses clearly indicate that the EU must step up its efforts to accelerate the shift towards digital production and strengthening the ICT sector that produces the required technologies and services. In addition, from a trade policy perspective, a harmonised set of standards and regulatory framework is to be aimed at to minimise mismatches in technical specifications and requirements. This will lead to the diffusion of positive externalities and should allow for a smooth operation of the global value chains in these products.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Trade, Information Technology, Digitalization, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe

25. EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future

Author:
Peter Václavík
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our intern Peter Václavík wrote a report on enhancing the relationship between the EU and Japan, which were discussed in the debate EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

26. The Trade Effects of the Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States: Early Empirical Insights from Panel Data

Author:
Frederik Stender, Axel Berger, Clara Brandi, and Jakob Schwab
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study provides early ex-post empirical evidence on the effects of provisionally applied Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) on two-way trade flows between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP). Employing the gravity model of trade, we do not find a general EPA effect on total exports from ACP countries to the EU nor on total exports from the EU to ACP countries. We do, however, find heterogeneous effects when focusing on specific agreements and economic sectors. While the agreement between the EU and the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM), which concluded several years ahead of the other EPAs in 2008, if anything, reduced imports from the EU overall, the provisional application of the other EPAs seems to have at least partly led to increased imports from the EU to some partner countries. More specifically, the estimation results suggest an increase in the total imports from the EU only in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) EPA partner countries. On the sectoral level, by comparison, we find increases in the EU’s agricultural exports to SADC, Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and the Pacific. Lastly, in the area of manufactures trade, we find decreases of exports of the ESA and SADC countries to the EU, but increases in imports from the EU into SADC countries. While this early assessment of the EPA effects merits attention given the importance of monitoring future implications of these agreements, it is still too early for a final verdict on the EPAs’ effects and future research is needed to investigate the mid- and long-term consequences of these agreements.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, South Africa, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and European Union

27. Court of Justice of the EU Ruling on Products from Territories Occupied by Israel

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz and Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 12 November 2019, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) issued a judgment on products from Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Golan Heights. It states that EU members are required to ensure that the origin is properly marked. The implementation of this requirement may cause disputes in the EU because of differences in Member States’ policies towards Israel. Tensions in relations with the U.S. are also possible, especially in the context of that country’s recent change in policy favouring the Israeli position on settlements. Hence, it is advisable for the EU to develop a uniform policy regarding imports and labelling of products from all occupied territories.
Topic:
International Law, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Occupation, Judiciary, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, United States of America, West Bank, and Golan Heights

28. Fisheries and Brexit

Author:
Anand Menon, Catherine Barnard, John Connolly, and Arno Van Der Zwet
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Brexit has been a steep learning curve for all of us. It has forced us to wrap our heads around a number of issues – Article 50, statutory instruments, rules of origin, business motions in the House of Commons and the rest – with which we were, at best, only vaguely familiar. Fish and fisheries is another such issue. Absurd though it may seem, as the formal Brexit process reaches its endgame, fisheries might yet be the issue that determines whether the negotiations succeed or fail. Consequently, we at the UK in a Changing Europe have put together this short report to try to explain the basics about a sector that is frequently referred to yet rarely properly understood. The aim of what follows is to explain, as clearly and accessibly as possible, what is at stake in the negotiations over fisheries, what is being negotiated and what the implications of these talks might be for the sector.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Trade, and Fishing
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

29. What would no deal mean?

Author:
Anand Menon, David Bailey, Tim Bale, Catherine Barnard, Matthew Bevington, Meredith Crowley, Sarah Hall, Katy Hayward, Martin Heneghan, Carmen Hubbard, Lisa James, Hussein Kassim, Ben Kienzle, Nicola McEwen, Jonathan Portes, Ivan Rajic, Meg Russell, Jill Rutter, Thomas Sampson, Maddy Thimont-Jack, Alan Wager, and Dan Wincott
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
We now have a Withdrawal Agreement, which means ‘no deal’ means ‘no trade deal’. Yet a no deal outcome would still have profound implications for the UK. As we analyse in this report, from trade to connectivity to foreign policy to cooperation in policing, a failure to strike an agreement with the EU will impact on us in numerous ways.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, Constitution, Economy, Trade, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. Revisited: What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?

Author:
Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Whether it is because of fishing rights, financial services, the EU’s insistence that the UK adhere to its level playing field, governance demands, or simply running out of time, it is far from clear that a trade deal will be successfully negotiated and approved by the end of 2020. As a consequence, the notion of the UK trading with the EU ‘on WTO terms’ has resurfaced. We have produced this report to explain what the WTO is and what trading on WTO terms actually means legally and practically. It updates an earlier version published in 2018.
Topic:
European Union, Constitution, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

31. Turning away from globalization? Trade wars and the rules of competition in global trade: Implications for the EU

Author:
Jan J. Michałek and Przemyslaw Wozniak
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit. Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

32. Our Europe: 15 Years of Poland in the European Union

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Mirosława Marody, Maja Sawicka, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Jan J. Michałek, Andrzej Halesiak, Stanisława Golinowska, Irena Topińska, Anna Fornalczyk, Richard Woodward, Grzegorz Gorzelak, Andrzej Kwieciński, Katarzyna Zawalińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Anna Malinowska, Wiesława Kozek, Magdalena Kąkol, Maciej Nowicki, Grzegorz Wiśniewski, Andrzej Cylwik, Tomasz Komornicki, Urszula Sztanderska, Jacek Liwiński, Dorota Ilczuk, Anna Karpińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Mateusz Szczurek, Stanisław Gomułka, and Paweł Wojciechowski
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration. This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, Social Policy, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

33. The European Union: State of play and prospects

Author:
Janusz Lewandowski
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski, the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

34. The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Anna Malinowska, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report, prepared by a team of economists from CASE, is a continuation of the 2018 analysis The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy commissioned by JTI Polska Sp. z o.o. The purpose of the research whose results are presented in this report is to assess the economic significance, challenges and development prospects of the tobacco product manufacturing, trade and distribution sector in Poland. In the report we analyze a cross-section of the tobacco industry and its significance for the economy as a whole. We also present the significant barriers to the sector’s growth, i.e. the illicit market, costs of compliance and regulatory uncertainty, and we also model the long-term macroeconomic effects of potential changes in the industry. To the best of our knowledge, at the moment this is the most comprehensive economic study of the sector.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Tobacco
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

35. Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Central Bank, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

36. The Rule of Law and its Social Reception as Determinants of Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany

Author:
Christopher Hartwell, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Maria Krell
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland. But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020). Against this background, this study examines the rule of law as a determinant of economic development in Germany and Poland from both the de jure and de facto perspectives.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

37. Africa Increases Control over Natural Resources

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
From October this year, new rules on the sale of cocoa beans entered into force, agreed between Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana—the crop’s two largest producers in the world—to ensure a profit for farmers. The agreement is an example of a departure from the raw material export model that is unfavourable to African producer countries. This change should increase the stability of African states. These processes will require a revision of the European business approach to Africa and the EU’s trade policy towards the continent.
Topic:
Agriculture, Natural Resources, European Union, Business, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire

38. Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Transatlantic Power

Author:
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, Daniela Schwarzer, Christian Mölling, and Sophia Becker
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) convened a strategy group of experts and former government officials from the United States and Europe over the past year to discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relationship and to propose a strategy to revive and strengthen it.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy, Government, Science and Technology, Partnerships, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

39. The Berlin Pulse 2020/21 (full issue)

Author:
Gro Harlem Brundtland, Paolo Gentiloni, Peter Altmaier, and H.R. McMaster
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:
In last year’s edition, we called 2020 an ‘eventful year’ with Germany’s presidency of the European Council and the US presidential election. But no one would have thought that a pandemic might be added to the list of major events affecting German foreign policy and political priorities around the globe. One year – and a COVID-19 special edition of The Berlin Pulse in between – later, international policy-making is slowly adjusting to the new level of uncertainty the pandemic brought into our lives. Despite these uncertain times, German public opinion on involvement or restraint in international crises remains solid as a rock: 44 percent of respondents say that Germany should get more strongly involved while 49 percent still prefer restraint. Since Körber-Stiftung posed this question for the first time in 2014, the public’s perspective has barely changed. In spite of this continuity, the present issue is also full of surprises and novelties. The idea of The Berlin Pulse is to identify potential gaps between German public opinion and expectations of international policy-makers. In 2020, another gap becomes an eye-catcher – the one between German and US public perceptions of the transatlantic partnership. A wide majority of US respondents considers Germany as a partner when tackling issues, such as protecting human rights and democracy (75 percent) or the environment (76 percent). By contrast, German respondents hardly reciprocate this feeling. With the US presidential election just behind us, an increasing US-Chinese rivalry in which Europe risks becoming – as Pauline Neville-Jones puts it – ‘the pig in the middle’ and crises beyond COVID-19 on the horizon, the present issue dedicates one chapter to each of these three developments to which German foreign policy needs to respond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Public Opinion, European Union, Multilateralism, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and WTO
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, Germany, Syria, and United States of America

40. The Importance of WTO Reform from a Transatlantic Perspective

Author:
Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Trade is at the forefront of international tensions in 2019. Political developments in the United States and Europe, and the rise of China as a peer competitor to the transatlantic economies, have led many to question the fundamental assumptions and operations supporting the World Trade Organization (WTO). Chinese mercantilism, the Trump administration’s aggressive use of unilateral tariff measures, and the inability of WTO members to reach consensus on expanding its disciplines to important new sectors and forms of commerce in the modern economy reinforce the critique of the WTO. Expansion in global trade, one of the great engines of growth and progress in bringing billions of people out of poverty since 1945, has slowed considerably in the last two decades. In 2018, however, several constructive efforts to craft reforms for this successor institution of the Bretton Woods system are engendering some hope that the WTO can be adapted to meet the needs of the contemporary economy. The first basket of problems revolves around a lack of WTO disciplines for newer sectors like services, including those associated with the emerging digital economy; for state-owned enterprises; for intellectual property protection; and for cross-border investments. The other main issues concern the sometimes ineffective and bounded operations of the WTO itself. Questions have been raised, notably by the United States, over the slow and inconsistent enforcement of existing WTO rules, and over rulings by judges in the Appellate Body which overstep the limits of existing WTO rules, undertake interpretations of domestic laws, and reinterpret facts established by earlier dispute panel decisions. This is the biggest issue now dividing U.S. and EU thinking on the reform of the WTO. The EU, Canada, Japan, the United States and other members have begun offering concrete proposals for addressing these problems, and the G20 political leaders gave a strong endorsement to their efforts in the December 2018 communique of the Buenos Aires summit. Ideas for new rules are being tested in sub-global trade agreements like the new North American and Trans-Pacific pacts and EU free trade agreements with Canada and Japan. Incorporation of new rules into the global WTO is extremely difficult; full consensus among its 164 members is required for the adoption of any new disciplines or internal operations. To overcome that impediment, this paper suggests that plurilateral agreements, like the Information Technology Agreement of 1997, be employed to establish and test new rules needed for the 21st-century economy. Some use of supermajority decision making instead of the consensus rule may also help advance the creation of new rules and redress weaknesses in WTO operations. The role of transatlantic leadership, finally, is emphasized as a key to building broad political support needed to achieve substantive reform.
Topic:
International Relations, World Trade Organization, Reform, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

41. Financing for the Polish economy: prospects and threats

Author:
Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Mariusz Wieckowski, and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk. When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers. One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).
Topic:
Demographics, GDP, Financial Markets, Economy, Banks, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

42. Is Non-State Money Possible? mBank – CASE Seminar Proceedings No. 158

Author:
George Selgin
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Depending on how one interprets the question that forms the topic of my talk, one can argue that the answer is obvious, or one can argue just the opposite. In one sense of course, it’s obvious that non-state money is possible. That’s the sense in which we ask only whether some kinds of non-state money are possible. And of course, the answer is yes. The vast majority of payments today, in Poland as elsewhere, are made with privately produced forms of money – that is, with bank deposits of various kinds – transferable by cheque or using debit cards. And there is nothing surprising about that. But of course, my assigned question can also be understood in a different and more interesting way. The interesting question is not whether some kinds of non-state- supplied money are possible. It is a different question, or rather two different questions. One of these is whether non-state circulating monies, or currencies, are possible. Can we rely on the private sector to supply hand-to-hand circulating means of payment? The other even more fundamental question is whether we can have a complete monetary system in which all forms of money supplied privately, and the state plays no substantial regulatory role. In fact, I intend to argue that non-state supplied currencies are also possible, and that completely private monetary systems, in which the state plays no important part, are possible as well. Indeed, I will argue, not only that these things are possible, but that history offers examples of them. That is, they are not just hypothetically possible. I plan to spend much of my time talking to you about these historical examples of privately produced currencies and private or mostly private monetary systems. I wish not merely to make it clear that private currencies and mostly private monetary systems really have existed in the past, but to point out to you that these private currencies and monetary systems have often been entirely or at least highly successful. We might even envy them today, given the performance of our own relatively heavily regulated monetary systems." - Prof. George Selgin writes in the introduction.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

43. Hungarian-Russian Economic Relations

Author:
Veronika Jóźwiak
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Hungarian-Russian economic relations are based on the energy industry. Hungary’s efforts to build closer political relations with Russia after 2010 did not result in a marked increase in bilateral trade, investment, or greater Russian influence outside the energy sector. EU economic sanctions imposed on Russia and the introduction of counter-sanctions in 2014 caused a significant drop in Hungarian exports to Russia. However, this has not resulted in substantial losses to the Hungarian economy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Hungary

44. Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer, and construction services

Author:
Anna Malinowska, Krzysztof Głowacki, Malgorzata McKenzie, and Przemysław Kowalski
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report analyses the extent of integration within the European Single Market in three services sectors, (1) construction, (2) IT/computer services, and (3) accounting and auditing services, and draws key conclusions in the context of future Single Market services liberalisation efforts. The main body of the report provides a comparative analysis of trade integration and recent trade developments within the three sectors, focusing on Poland’s stakes in the agenda regarding liberalisation of trading in services. It assesses the still existing trade barriers, both for Polish services providers operating in the European Single Market and for foreign firms from other Single Market member states selling to customers in Poland. The discussion of potential benefits from further liberalisation of trade in these sectors for Poland is set in the broader context of the offensive and defensive interests in these sectors of three of Poland’s EU partners: Germany, Hungary and Sweden. The main body of the report is organised into three parts. The first one serves as the background for subsequent analyses, providing general information on trade in services in the EU and modes of the provision of services across borders, as well as presenting statistics on export competitiveness in the sectors of interest. The second part discusses the Services Directive and relevant liberalisation efforts within the Single Market. This is followed by a detailed analysis of the remaining barriers in the three sectors within the Single Market. The last section concludes and provides key policy recommendations. The Annexes present additional sectoral statistics and information on economic characteristics, trade integration, and the remaining trade barriers identified in Poland and the three selected EU partners (Germany, Hungary and Sweden). Additional information on the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index methodology used to assess the significance and implications of remaining trade barriers is also included. The study “Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer and construction services” was commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in consultation with the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Technology) and prepared by CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research. It is intended as a Polish contribution to the ongoing discussion on the future of the Single Market at the highest political level as well as in the context of upcoming programming of the agenda of the next European Commission.
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

45. Rebels without a Cause: Russia’s Proxies in Eastern Ukraine

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Russia and the separatists it backs in Ukraine’s east are no longer quite on the same page, especially since the Kremlin abandoned ideas of annexing the breakaway republics or recognising their independence. The rift gives the new Ukrainian president an opportunity for outreach to the east’s embattled population, including by relaxing the trade embargo. What’s new? Russia’s gradual retreat from any plans to annex parts of eastern Ukraine has opened schisms between Moscow and its separatist proxies in the region. Why does it matter? For Kyiv, these divides could create opportunities to restart dialogue with the people of the east. Such contacts, in turn, could help lay the groundwork for Ukraine’s unification. What should be done? The rift between Moscow and its proxies should inform new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s policies. Kyiv should look to rebuild relations with the inhabitants of separatist-held areas, by easing the economic blockade on the east and increasing outreach to the population there.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

46. The US–China trade–tech stand-off and the need for EU action on export control

Author:
Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As the great power rivalry and (technological) trade conflict between the United States (US) and China intensifies, calls for an export control regime tailored to so-called emerging technologies are growing. In August 2018 the US government announced the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), seeking to limit the release of emerging technologies to end uses, end users and destinations of concern. The contest is on for the leader in the development and use of emerging technologies, but also for shaping norms and writing the rules for their use. This requires the Netherlands and other EU member states – in coordination with key stakeholders from business and academia – also to redouble their efforts to recraft their own approach to export controls of so-called ‘omni-use’ emerging technologies. This Clingendael Report outlines four levels of action in the field of export control for the Dutch government to pursue in parallel: bilaterally with the US; European Union cooperation; ‘Wassenaar’ and beyond; and trusted communities.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Power Politics, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

47. An Arduous Path: Are Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania Ready to Join the Area?

Author:
Žiga Faktor
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The concept of free movement between European countries anchored in the Schengen Agreement, manifested in the creation of the borderless Schengen Area, is arguably one of the great achievements of European integration. By facilitating conditions for trade, services and movement of citizens, the Schengen Area acts as one of the converging economic factors for Member States. Decision on the dissolution of state borders is generally seen as a positive step for economic development, regional integration and a sign of trust between the countries. Nevertheless, it also raises many questions and challenges, especially on the topic of security and compliance of national laws with rules and conditions set in the Agreement. This article will focus on the accession of Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania to the Schengen Area and discuss the main difficulties and obstacles for each country.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Trade, and Schengen
Political Geography:
Europe, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia

48. From Enlargement to the Unification of Europe: Why the European Union needs a directorate general Europe for future members and association countries

Author:
Srđan Cvijić, Marie Jelenka Kirchner, Iskra Kirova, and Zoran Nechev
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The need for the European Union’s involvement in the Western Balkans, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine has never been more acute. The European Commission’s structures are not up to the job. A new approach is needed to respond to the realities on the ground and in member states. The European Union needs to boost the tools of the European Commission to move the process on from enlargement and move decisively towards the unification of Europe. This means creating a directorate general that would have the resources to drive forward the accession process with the Western Balkans countries and the ambitious trade and reform agenda in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. A new directorate general Europe could play this role.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Europe Union, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

49. Virtual currencies and their potential impact on financial markets and monetary policy

Author:
Lukasz Janikowski and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Virtual currencies are a contemporary form of private money. Thanks to their technological properties, their global transaction networks are relatively safe, transparent, and fast. This gives them good prospects for further development. However, they remain unlikely to challenge the dominant position of sovereign currencies and central banks, especially those in major currency areas. As with other innovations, virtual currencies pose a challenge to financial regulators, in particular because of their anonymity and trans-border character.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

50. Enhancing EU–India Connectivity: Towards New Spice Routes

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The approaches of the EU and India to the connectivity between Asia and Europe largely converge. Both the Union and the country emphasize the importance of maintaining the highest international standards in infrastructure projects, share similar concerns regarding China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and implement their own ambitious transregional transport projects in their respective neighbourhood. Comprehensive cooperation on connectivity may become a key element of their strategic partnership, help promote regulatory standards, and boost economic cooperation. Better connectivity between Europe and India is also in Poland’s interest.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, India, Poland, and European Union

51. Potential impact of financial innovation on financial services and monetary policy

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The recent wave of financial innovation, particularly innovation related to the application of information and communication technologies, poses a serious challenge to the financial industry’s business model in both its banking and non-banking components. It has already revolutionised financial services and, most likely, will continue to do so in the future. If not responded to adequately and timely by regulators, it may create new risks to financial stability, as occurred before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. However, financial innovation will not seriously affect the process of monetary policymaking and is unlikely to undermine the ability of central banks to perform their price stability mission.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

52. The Catalan economy: Crisis, recovery and policy challenges

Author:
Xavier Cuadras-Morató
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain. Until the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis in 2008, it enjoyed a phenomenal economic boom – which then turned into a very severe depression, from which the region began to exit only in 2014. Consolidating the recovery and making the economy more competitive and resilient, and less volatile, are some of the key challenges of economic policy in Catalonia. Also, to improve the region’s social cohesion, policymakers should make sure that economic prosperity is more widely shared, and transform it into an effective tool for social progress.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Trade, and Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, Catalonia, and European Union

53. Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios

Author:
Aleksander Łaszek
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Poland’s structural deficit is one of the largest in the EU. While other Member States are taking action to reduce their deficits, the Polish government has not only introduced costly projects, but has also announced additional projects that will further aggravate the state of Polish public finances. The aim of maintaining the nominal deficit under 3% of GDP, as declared by the government, is insufficient because it does not leave a margin of safety in case of an economic slowdown. In the meantime, the turbulent global economy and the structural challenges the Polish economy is facing make the scenario of an economic slowdown increasingly plausible. Dr. Aleksander Łaszek evaluates the government’s current policy through the lens of the challenges that stand a head of Polish economy, and its resilience to shocks, in the new mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings "Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios".
Topic:
Debt, Government, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

54. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2016 Final Report

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The analysis serves as the Final Report for the DG TAXUD Project 2015/CC/131, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, which is a follow up to the reports published in 2013, 2014, and 2015. In this report, estimates of the VAT Gap and the Policy Gap for the year 2014 are presented, as well as revised estimates for the years 2010–2013 “due to the transmission” of Eurostat national accounts from the ESA95 to the ESA10. This update covers Croatia, which was not included in the previous updates. While it was hoped that the update would also cover Cyprus, it has not been possible due to incomplete national accounts data. The VAT Gap is a measure of VAT compliance and enforcement that provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies, as well as miscalculations. It is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), which is expressed in the report in bothabsolute and relative terms. The VTTL is the theoretical tax liability according to tax law, and is estimated using a “top-down” approach.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, Croatia, and European Union

55. Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: lessons for the ECB

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The European Central Bank (ECB) recently became engaged in macro-prudential policies and the micro-prudential supervision of the largest Euro area banks. These new tasks should help complete financial integration, and make the Euro area more resilient to financial instability risks. However, the multiplicity of mandates and instruments involves a risk of their inconsistency which could compromise the ECB’s core price-stability mandate as well as its independence. The experience of central banks during the recent global financial crisis confirms that such risks are not purely hypothetical.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Macroeconomics, Innovation, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

56. On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries

Author:
Aleksander Łaszek, Andrzej Rzońca, and Andrzej Halesiak
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups. The 144th mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings consist of the main paper "On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries" by Andrzej Rzońca and Aleksander Łaszek and the commentary "Economic Growth in Western Europe: The Investment Perspective" by Andrzej Halesiak.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Investment, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Western Europe, and European Union

57. The condition of and prospects for the private equity funds market in Poland

Author:
Barbara Nowakowska, Piotr Noceń, Michał Surowski, and Michał Popiołek
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the publication, Barabara Nowakowska and Piotr Noceń discuss 'Poland’s Private Equity Market: Current Conditions and Development Prospects', and Michał Surowski and Michał Popiołek describe 'Private Equity From a Bank’s Perspective'.
Topic:
Development, Markets, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banks, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

58. Quo vadis, Ukraine? Is there a chance for success?

Author:
Ivan Mikloš
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"If I were to say just one thing about Ukraine, I think I would have to stress it is the most underperforming country of all the countries I know. Ukraine has had, and indeed still does have, a lot of potential. In the beginning of 1990s, in 1992 to be precise, Deutsche Bank prepared an analysis of the chances for the former Soviet Union states to be reformed and developed successfully, and according to this analysis, Ukraine had the best chance among them all to be successful. We know that in reality the opposite happened, and Ukraine is in a very difficult situation now. The main reason for this situation is that when at the beginning of 1990s communist countries collapsed, the old system in Ukraine was not replaced by a new one, one of functioning market economy. It was eroded, but not exactly replaced the way it happened for example in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Baltic states. The country was captured by oligarchs, and a very strange, dysfunctional, and corrupted system was created instead."
Topic:
Development, Economies, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

59. Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. 2015 Report

Author:
Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report “2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States” , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries. The VAT Gap is an indicator of the effectiveness of VAT enforcement and compliance measures, as it provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies as well as miscalculations. As the VAT Gap in this study is based on a top-down approach, it does not readily lend itself to be deconstructed according to industrial sectors or other criteria (territorial, professional), and can be best used as a diagnostic tool in the context of its evolution over time. As discussed in previous reports, the VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT actually collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), in absolute or percentage terms. The VTTL is an estimated amount of VAT that is theoretically collectable based on the VAT legislation and ancillary regulations. This report calculates, for each country the VTTL on the basis of national accounts, by mapping information on standard, reduced rates and exemptions onto data available on final and intermediate consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation, from national accounts and use tables. Thus, the quality of the VAT Gap estimates depends on the accuracy and completeness of national accounts data and use tables. The year 2013 saw a continuing overall unfavourable economic environment, as the GDP of the European Union was nearly stagnant. This contributed to a slowdown of nominal final consumption and of other economic aggregates that form the basis of the Value Added Tax. Six countries applied changes to standard or reduced rates in 2013, marking a relatively stable policy environment. During 2013, the overall VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) for the EU-26 Member States grew by about 1.2 percent, while collected VAT revenues rose by 1.1 percent. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU-26 saw an increase in absolute values of about Euro 2.8 billion, to reach Euro 168 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap stayed constant at 15.2 percent. The median VAT Gap rose by 1.6 percentage point, to reach 13.9 percent. In 2013, Member States’ estimated VAT Gaps ranged from the low of 4 percent in Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, to the high of 41 percent in Romania. Overall, 15 Member States decreased their VAT Gap, with the largest improvements noted in Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. 11 Member States saw an increase in the VAT Gap, generally of small magnitudes, with the largest deteriorations in Estonia and Italy. This report also provides new and expanded evidence on the Policy Gap for the EU-26. The Policy Gap is an indicator of the additional VAT revenue that a Member State could theoretically collect if it applied standard rate to all consumption of goods and services supplied for consideration. We provide here estimates of the Policy Gap adjusted to take into account items that could not easily be taxed even in an “ideal” system (imputed rents, public goods, financial services). The results moderate views of the relative importance of reduced rates and exemptions in reducing the revenue potential of VAT, and suggest that better enforcement remains a key component of any strategy of improvement of the VAT system. The results of this report and the underlying data were presented to Member States in advance of publication and discussed on several occasions with the representatives of Member States. Deviating approaches and views of Member States are noted in the relevant country section in Chapter 3. The authors are grateful for the constructive cooperation and helpful input of Member States.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

60. Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:
Monika Blaszkiewicz
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE. This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

61. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia

62. Transfer of Know-how for SMEs in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. White Paper: Moldova

Author:
Gabor Hunya, Lidis Garbovan, Magdolna Sass, and Oliver Kovacs
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The report focuses on the potential of the development of small and mid-size businesses in Moldova. It provides an economic overview of the country, and then analyzes various best practices and lessons learned from the development of SMEs in the Visegrad countries, especially Hungary. The report provides a description of economic developments, main trade figures, relevant labor developments, migration and the role of remittances and defines the bottlenecks for SME development in the country. The authors built their analysis on available literature and statistics as well as their own survey and interview series. The study highlights six case studies relevant for SME development selected for deeper investigation such as simplified tax schemes, online tax reporting, entrepreneurship education, agriculture and producers’ organizations, the wine industry and issues of measurement of the SME sector. Finally the report draws up potential intervention schemes for Moldovan stakeholders and provides further recommendations for longer term initiatives and actions taken for the support of economic and SME development.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

63. Transfer of Know-how for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine White Paper: Ukraine

Author:
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The publication was issued within the project ‘Transfer of Know-How for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine’ which aims to assist SMEs in those countries by providing support to stakeholders in their efforts to develop analytical and policy advocacy capabilities and by opening new channels of communication between SMEs and NGOs in the Visegrad Four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and the rest of the European Union. The objective of the study is to deliver the complete findings and outcomes of the project aimed at Ukraine. This White Paper serves as an authoritative document with action plans, budgets, and a tangible way for the beneficiary country stakeholders to move forward with the agenda of small and medium-sized business development. It presents an overview of the collected background information and contains basic data on the countries, including some key macroeconomic comparisons as well as rankings in major competitiveness reports (e.g. Doing Business report by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development), identifies the project stakeholders and provides an overview of the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine. It also includes the findings of two surveys implemented by the Slovak-Ukrainian team. Based on the findings, the “Discussion and Recommendations” section presents various perspectives on the problems of SMEs in Ukraine using the experience of the accession process of Slovakia, specific examples of key initiatives that led to the resolution of the problems, as well as case studies from various industries. It stresses the involvement of all parties including the EU, local governments, civil society, business associations, and the SMEs themselves. The key outcome of the paper is a road map – a very specific plan of actions including schedules, budgets, and other details within the scope of this project that will help the beneficiary country to cope with problems regarding the agenda of small and middle business development using the expertise and experience of institutions and stakeholders accumulated throughout the Slovak EU accession process. It includes a wide range of activities including a discussion of the project results with various Ukrainian stakeholders, workshops aimed at increasing knowledge about EU markets, legislation and standards, as well as strategic and institutional moves.
Topic:
Development, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

64. Corporate debt securities market in Poland: state of art, problems, and prospects for development

Author:
Agnieszka Gontarek, Piotr Kowalski, and Tomasz Gałka
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The development of the Polish corporate bonds market resulted from changes on the supply side. When the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Polish entrepreneurs realized that financing their companies’ operations only with the use of credit, even if contracted from different sources, might not be the best idea. Consequently, Polish business turned to debt instruments – said Piotr Kowalski, one of the keynote speakers during the mBank - CASE Seminar no. 136. In the publication, which is an extended and authorized version of presentations delivered during the abovementioned seminar, the authors discuss various aspects of the corporate debt securities market in Poland. Piotr Kowalski gives a synthetic presentation of the subject of the analysis, Agieszka Gontarek presents selected domestic regulations and factors, and Tomasz Gałka writes about selected consequences of excessive burdens.
Topic:
Debt, Business, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

65. An assessment of direct and indirect liabilities of Polish banks AD 2015

Author:
Marek Radzikowski and Mieczysław Groszek
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The present document is an attempt at a comprehensive analysis of direct and indirect burdens imposed upon banks in 2015. The idea to present such factors — which are often extremely varied in nature — in a single study was born out of the fact that these factors are often considered separately, on the basis of various criteria, which causes them to be split into different groups. This approach results in a fairly common tendency for fragmentary assessment of their impact and, more importantly, in the adoption of piecemeal regulations which fail to take into account the full impact of the actions taken in different areas. This applies in equal measures to supervisory authorities, regulators, analysts, policymakers and the media, which means that, in a somewhat oversimplified sense, the above statement is applicable to the public at large. This situation can be most succinctly characterised in the manner presented below. In the aftermath of the crisis, banks require a new set of instruments to regulate the functioning thereof. This is because they are to become more stable, safe, less risk-prone and more customer-friendly. Each of these areas requires a separate set of regulatory instruments, along with the respective subgroups thereof. Oftentimes they are not synchronised with each other and are usually aimed at the implementation of a specific, particular goal to an excessive extent. In addition, there are also “special tasks” such as the reform of the Credit and Saving Unions (SKOK).
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, and European Union

66. EU cooperation with non-member neighboring countries: the principle of variable geometry

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this study the author analyzes the experience of the European Union in cooperation with non-member neighboring countries, to which the EU’s integration process and institutions are both available. On the one hand, several non-member countries are interested in close cooperation or integration with the organization because of their future membership aspirations or simply because they consider the EU an important economic and political partner. On the other hand, the EU itself is also interested in building such close relations, for economic but often also for geopolitical and security reasons.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

67. Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski, Katarzyna Waşik, and Maciej Krzak
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous. For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier. The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe