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192. Did NATO expansion prompt the Russian attack on Ukraine?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Neither NATO nor US policy caused the Ukraine war. The invasion was Moscow’s unforced choice. But that doesn’t settle the issue of provocation. Although neither provocation nor “facilitation” amount to “cause,” such dynamics might have played a role in moving us toward this war. And knowing what role US or NATO policy may have played in bringing the world to this juncture can help illuminate ways to end the conflict (short of prosecuting it to its bitter end – however long that might take and at whatever cost it might entail).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
193. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
194. Responsible Statecraft Correlates with UN Vote on Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Application of the 2021 Peddling Peril Index
- Author:
- David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- On March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly convened in New York and voted 141 (in favor), 5 (against), and 35 (abstained), on the UNGA Resolution ES-11/1, condemning and demanding an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This invasion is a paramount shift in the status quo of peaceful relations on the European continent and will have repercussions throughout the world. The Institute decided to assess the vote in terms related to international norms of responsible strategic trade and associated behavior, using the results and findings in the 2021/2022 Peddling Peril Index (PPI), which ranks national strategic trade control systems. We could have selected other international normative comparisons, but we decided to use the PPI since national strategic trade controls are often correlated with more responsible state actions, and the PPI also measures adherence to a large number of international treaties and conventions. A central finding is that the vote is positively correlated with states' demonstrated commitment and implementation of international arms control, trade control, and financial practices. Countries that voted against the resolution or abstained from voting performed worse, on average, in the Peddling Peril Index.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Norms, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
195. Russian Military UAV Used in Ukraine Depends on Foreign Parts
- Author:
- Spencer Faragasso
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
- Abstract:
- Russia is well known to depend on foreign goods for its military equipment and industries. Recent Ukrainian social media reports illustrate the large fraction of foreign goods in Russia’s Orlan-10, a mid-range, gasoline-engine, propellor-driven reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) widely used by Russian military forces to pinpoint Ukrainian civilian and military targets for artillery strikes.
- Topic:
- Weapons, Drones, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
196. 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index
- Author:
- Megi Reci and Daniel Prroni
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
- Abstract:
- On 15th of December 2022, the Institute for Democracy and Mediation presented the key findings of the 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index (CSOSI). This annual index, presents the status and development trends of civil society in 74 countries around the world, focusing on the legal environment, organizational capacity, financial sustainability, advocacy, service provision, sector infrastructure and public image. The 2021 CSOSI on Albania provided an assessment of the enabling environment for the civil society sector by analyzing a number of important developments that took place during 2021. Although the overall sustainability of CSOs did not change, there were slight deteriorations in the legal environment, advocacy and public image dimensions. The legal environment suffered a decline due to some changes in the legal framework affecting CSOs. Prolonged restrictions on gatherings, limited transparency, and the lack of opportunities to consult with the government hindered CSO advocacy initiatives, while the public image of the sector slightly deteriorated as a result of ongoing attacks on CSOs and activists. Other dimensions of CSO sustainability remained largely unchanged. The report on Albania was written by IDM in partnership with FHI 360 and International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, with the support of USAID. It is based on discussions with a panel of Albanian experts, primary data gathered through qualitative research methods, as well as data gathered from a survey administered with local CSOs.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democracy, Social Order, and Civil Society Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Albania
197. A transformational moment? The EU's response to Russia's war in Ukraine
- Author:
- Sergio Carrera, Steven Blockmans, Malorie Schaus, Willem Pieter De Groen, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- It is often said that the EU is forged in crisis. After weathering what feels like so many crises over the past 15 years, the EU’s swift and decisive response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has, for the most part, been welcomed as the EU finally getting a crisis right. In the first weeks of the war, the EU adopted an impressive series of sanctions, rapidly widening the net cast over growing numbers of targeted individuals and institutions. It has also provided over EUR 2 billion of ‘lethal aid’ to Ukraine to help it fight off the invaders, a notion that would have been absolutely unthinkable only a few short months ago. In advance of our 2022 edition of the annual CEPS Ideas Lab and harnessing our broad inhouse expertise, we gave our CEPS contributors a simple instruction for compiling this special report – to dive deep into their specialist areas and provide their perspective on whether the invasion and subsequent crisis is a true ‘game changer’ in terms of the EU’s immediate and ongoing policy response. Or, to put it another way, will 2022 be viewed by future historians as a year of genuine transformation, a transformation fuelled by the largest conventional conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War? The picture that emerges from the fog of war is a fragmented one. A general conclusion is that while there have been some positive changes in certain policy areas (such as migration, sanctions, energy and climate), the use of the term ‘game changer’ is as of yet unwarranted. The only real exception here, and where an alleged transformation can be argued is really starting to place, is in security and defence policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
198. Baseline Report on Gender-Based Violence in Kosovo: Community and Stakeholder Perceptions
- Author:
- Teuta Avdimetaj, Dea Fetiu, and Dorjeta Rukiqi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This report provides a baseline assessment of Gender-based Violence (GBV) in Kosovo, with a focus on exploring key trends and challenges based on community and stakeholder perspectives. In doing so, this report relies primarily on data gathered through Key Informant Interviews (KII) and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) to obtain insights from affected communities as they articulate the presence of the threat, the factors influencing its prevalence, and how they consider the approach should be to address it. Although the legal and strategic framework on Gender-based Violence is considered advanced and mostly in line with international standards and EU regulations, the lack of adequate funding and deeply entrenched patriarchal norms in Kosovo’s society make the implementation of these laws difficult to be put into practice.
- Topic:
- Crime, European Union, Women, Gender Based Violence, Community, Stakeholders, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
199. Public perception on Trust, Corruption and Integrity of Public Institutions in Kosovo
- Author:
- Plator Avdiu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Security institutions in Kosovo are constantly maintaining, and in some cases, increasing their trust among the citizens, thus resulting as the most trustworthy institutions compared to other sectors. Kosovo Security Force is the most trusted institution with 83 percent of trust, followed by Emergency Management Agency with 73 percent, and Kosovo Police, which is trusted by 72 percent of respondents. Two other security institutions have marked significant increase in 2022: around 60 percent of respondents trust the Police Inspectorate of Kosovo and 51 percent trust the Kosovo Intelligence Agency. This is the first time that both institutions gained the confidence of more than 50 percent. The President of Kosovo, with 59 percent, and Municipalities, with 55 percent of trust, are ranked as the most trusted among the central and local institutions followed by Kosovo Customs with 46 percent.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Institutions, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
200. Public Perception of Serbian Foreign Policy in the Midst of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Vuk Vuksanovic, Luka Steric, and Maja Bjelos
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine did not significantly affect the perception of the Serbian public regarding the major issues of Serbian foreign and security policy. In this context, this relates to how Serbian citizens think about the influence of great powers in their country and how the public perceives its relations with Russia and Western security institutions, the EU and NATO. The public opinion surveys also showed that the issue of Kosovo is still being perceived as a major foreign policy priority. There is a powerful cynicism in how the Serbian public views great power influences, as most respondents believe that external great powers bribe Serbian politicians and moguls to further their interests in the country. Russia and China are perceived as close foreign policy partners of Serbia, putting them in clear advantage over those who favour the EU on that front. The respondents also believed that Russia and China are sincere friends of Serbia and not players guided by their self-interest. As opposed to the study conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in 2020, which noted that Serbs perceived Chinese influence in the country as more positive than Russian influence, the latest survey shows that those who believe Russian influence in Serbia is positive have a slight edge over those who believe the same about Chinese influence. This is most likely the result of the fact that China has not been in the spotlight in recent months.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans