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1. Reversing the resource curse: Advancing good natural resource governance for inclusive growth and sustainable development in Southern Africa

Author:
Sikhululekile Mashingaidze and Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Gas Outlook in late 2023 notes that “Africa accounted for nearly 40% of new natural gas discoveries globally in the past decade, mainly in Mozambique, Mauritania, Senegal and Tanzania. However, socio-political instability and security issues make Africa a high-risk environment for the gas industry. This results in a gap between the potential and the actual gas production projects under development.” Nonetheless, the Agency forecasts natural gas production growth of 10% (higher than current levels) by 2026. It had only grown by 2.5% from 2011 to 2021, and currently accounts for roughly 6% of global production.1 Asian and Middle Eastern markets’ demand will continue2 while African governments will bet on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In the longer term, it is critical to phase out fossil fuels due to their exacerbation of global warming and health and environmental risks. Given the imperative for lowercarbon growth trajectories, demand for oil, gas, and coal will likely peak in 2024. Governments and mining investors’ negotiations and contracts should safeguard local populations through ecologically sensitive, responsible mining. Communities’ voices are critical to decision-making from project inception to ensure revenues usher in broad-based growth and increased domestic energy security. In 2022, Good Governance Africa (GGA), with support from the Southern Africa Trust (SAT), explored critical issues surrounding LNG exploration and development in Southern Africa in the context of climate change.3 This intelligence report is a consolidation of key lessons from these LNG projects’ impact on local communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado; South Africa’s Eastern Cape, and Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin. Together, these three cases illustrate both the promise and perils of LNG mining in Africa.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:
Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

3. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:
Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

4. The Politics of New Cities: Diversification of Actors and Recentralization of State Power in the Case of Diamniadio

Author:
Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The construction of new cities on the African continent is in vogue. From multifunctional urban hubs to eco-districts, the images that accompany the announcement of these projects promote an African urban future based on modernity and technology. This trend for urban planning that claims to make a clean sweep of pre-existing approaches is not unique to African countries, whose governments are inspired in particular by North African and Asian models. However, the promotion of new cities in Africa is part of the lively debate that has been going on for several years on the rapid urbanization of the continent's countries. The creation of modern cities, organized and corresponding to the urban planning standards of international metropolises, is presented as a means of avoiding haphazard, chaotic urban development. This paper offers a critical analysis of the policy of new cities based on an empirical study of the new urban pole of Diamniadio (PUD) in Senegal. Two key arguments are put forward in this paper. First, the analysis deconstructs the ex nihilo character of these urban projects and emphasizes that they are part of public policy trajectories. Due to its geo-economic and strategic position, Diamniadio has been at the heart of the Dakar region's territorial planning policies since at least the end of the 1990s. Secondly, new towns are far from being neutral and technical urban planning instruments; rather, they are political devices that convey interests and stimulate power games. By delimiting the boundaries of the PUD, which is presented as President Macky Sall's political footprint, the central government regains certain administrative powers, particularly in terms of land planning and allocation. In addition, the PUD reflects competition from foreign actors, both public and private, and the growing importance of emerging actors such as Turkey.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, State, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

5. Twilight Institutions: Land conflict and hybrid authorities in Benin’s Borgou department

Author:
Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Borgou Department is a large administrative area with eight communes and 43 districts spanning over 25,856 square kilometers. The department primarily comprises the Bariba, Dendi, Boo (about 40%) and Fulani ethnic groups (about 33%). The majority of the first three groups are farmers, and the Fulani are primarily nomadic or semi-nomadic cattle and sheepherders. The Borgou Department in Northern Benin has seen communal conflict over the past few years. There are escalating tensions between farmers and herders, even though there has also been more violence between the supporters of the former president Boni Yayi and those of the sitting President Patrice Talon (particularly in 2019 and 2020). Communal conflicts between farmers and herders in Borgou have multiple driving forces. This report explores one of these: changing land management systems. It is argued that recent changes in land management are in any event likely to become a stronger driver of tensions in Borgou in the near future. Exploring land management systems and their impact on the Borgou is relevant for two reasons. First, there is simply very little literature on changing land management systems in Benin. For example, in August 2017 Benin’s authorities modified the 2013 Land Code to limit land conflicts and to modernize the institutional framework governing land acquisition and management. But exactly what the impact of this change has been has not been fully explored. Second, Northern Benin has experienced the problem of increasing violent extremist activity. While this activity is concentrated in the Alibori and Atacora regions, it is conceivable that once it has become established it might further escalate, with Borgou being a possible area of expansion. Being able to focus on vulnerabilities with the aim of addressing them is important for Benin’s stability. Research and media reports point to an increase in both the number and intensity of farmer-herder confrontations in the Borgou Department over the past five years. From the literature, it is apparent that this shift is driven by two factors. On the one hand, it is the effect of the demographic growth of and the increase in the cattle population which results in more competition for land. On the other hand, the introduction of land reforms by successive governments has tended to reinforce the feeling of insecurity among essentially illiterate farmers and herders.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Conflict, Institutions, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

6. Climate and Environmental Security in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Kira Vinke, Loyle Campbell, Dana Schirwon, Katongo Seyuba, Florian Krampe, Hafsa Maalim, and Guélor Isulu Mbungwal
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Climate change is compounding the Democratic Republic of Congo’s tangle of problems – a long-running civil war, weak governance, and deeply entrenched poverty and inequality. The country’s future is of global significance: its vast Congo-basin rainforest is a crucial carbon sink and a haven of biodiversity. DRC’s hydropower potential and its deposits of copper and cobalt could enable the energy transition, but a green resource looms over development prospects. Germany will need flexible and well-aligned national strategies to effectively support peace, human progress, and environmental protection in the DRC while putting the focus on the needs of marginalized populations.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Poverty, Inequality, and Hydropower
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

7. Double-Edged Sword: How to Engage Returnee Networks in Migrant Reintegration

Author:
Victoria Rietig and Sophie Meiners
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Migrants increasingly have a say in migration policies. Diaspora and migrant associations rightfully step into the spotlight to bring their much-needed perspectives to policy development. But the work of associations of returned migrants has stayed in the shadows despite their having firsthand experiences that can guide the design of reintegration policies.
Topic:
Migration, Networks, Reintegration, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

8. A Monumental Relationship: North Korea and Namibia

Author:
Tycho van der Hoog
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Visitors to Windhoek, the capital city of Namibia, will quickly learn a remarkable fact that is well-known among the local population—much of the capital’s architectural landscape is designed and constructed by North Korea. In recent years, North Korean nationals have built the official residence of the president of Namibia, the State House; the national cemetery for the fallen heroes of the liberation struggle, the National Heroes’ Acre; the national history museum, the Independence Memorial Museum; the Ministry of Defense headquarters and other buildings. The Namibian government thus uses North Korean aesthetics for some of the most important aspects of its power: the president, the history, and the army. This analysis explores the relationship between Namibia and North Korea by providing historical and political context to the aforementioned buildings. Today, Namibia often has the reputation of a quaint and sometimes sleepy destination, tucked away in the southwestern corner of the African continent. Yet, Namibia was at the center of geopolitical tensions for most of the twentieth century. The complicated decolonization process of Namibia, or “the Namibian question,” as it became known in the corridors of the United Nations (UN), had its roots in the aftermath of three decades of German occupation between 1884 and 1915. German South West Africa, the area that became modern Namibia, was transferred to South Africa as a League of Nations mandate territory and renamed “South West Africa.” South Africa viewed the territory as an unofficial fifth province and introduced brutal apartheid legislation. Internal opposition against the South African regime resulted in the formation of nationalist organizations, of which the South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) became the most prominent.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Politics, Arts, and Culture
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, North Korea, and Namibia

9. Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa

Author:
Elizabeth Shackelford, Ethan Kessler, and Emma Sanderson
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
The US strategy toward Africa today is neither effective nor sustainable. It’s time to flip the script. US policy in Africa has for too long prioritized short-term security to the detriment of long-term stability by prioritizing the provision of military and security assistance. This is done in hopes that partner countries will use this capacity to suppress radical groups at home and reduce the likelihood that they will spread disorder in the region or create threats to US interests at home and abroad. Yet, this strategy has neither produced security in Africa nor reduced threats to the United States and its interests. Washington should rein in its use of security assistance with partners that fail to demonstrate commitment to the reforms necessary to build long-term stability. Partnerships and military assistance with illiberal, undemocratic countries have delivered little, if any, sustainable security improvements, and in many cases have prompted further instability and violence by building the capacity of abusive security forces. They have also provided harmful associations between the US government and the abuses committed by those we arm and assist. Since terrorism in Africa poses a low threat to US national security interests, there is no justification for focusing on short-term security issues at the cost of good governance, rule of law, and other factors that contribute to long-term stability. The costs of doing so are increasingly being recognized, with Congress today more likely to apply existing legal provisions to end security cooperation with abusive regimes. But these interventions typically come too late and are too inconsistent to influence behavior of illiberal regimes. A more systemic approach is needed to break the pattern of poor outcomes. The rise of great-power competition exacerbates the risk that the US national security establishment will double down on its security cooperation strategy in the region out of concern that doing otherwise would leave a vacuum that America’s competitors might fill. In reality, however, the argument for being more selective in distributing security assistance is even stronger with the return of great-power competition, as values and reputation become increasingly important in attracting support for the United States over other great powers. Security and military assistance will continue to play a role in the region. However, the United States would be better off being more deliberate and cautious, only pursuing it after completing a holistic assessment of the potential impact of such assistance on governance, human rights, and broader stability. Security assistance can and must be more closely scrutinized with enhanced US government oversight tools to ensure it does not undermine governance and stability, and Washington should be more willing to choose different tools when shaping relationships with weak partners, to condition assistance to ensure it does not facilitate bad outcomes, and to cut it off when partner countries use it to abuse civilians.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Strategic Competition, and Military Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

10. The Challenges of Climate Financing in Conflict Contexts

Author:
Sagal Abshir
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The “Challenges of climate finance in conflict contexts” is a paper by Sagal Abshir, senior advisor to the Environmental Peacemaking Project in Somalia, supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Amidst a general global underfunding of climate action, fragile and conflict-affected states struggle to secure climate financing. This is the case even for countries where climate change exacerbates the impact of chronic war and poverty. Although the funding gap is known, climate finance flows are scarce and scattered to fragile and conflict-affected to adapt and mitigate lag behind what has been promised and what is needed. In the cases of Somalia and Yemen, which are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, it averaged only USD 2 per capita. More generally, the total annual global flows of climate-related finance averaged a little over USD 600B in 2019-2020 – only a third of the IPCC’s estimate of funding required to reach our climate targets – from which only 10 per cent is directed to climate adaptation. The challenges in preparing communities and governments in fragile and conflict-affected states for climate impacts call for a new imagination, new mechanisms, and mobilizing political commitment to ensure climate financing flows help people in these countries respond to climate risks. Other solutions are on the horizon: well-designed climate action can serve as an opportunity to consolidate peace. Lessons learned from pilot climate responses in war-torn countries demonstrated that climate adaptation could contribute to conflict prevention and resolution efforts, such as in the case of Sudan and Nepal. In this paper, Sagal Abshir explores the status of climate finance for the extremely fragile and climate-vulnerable countries of Somalia and Yemen. The author reviews the global climate financing landscape and some challenges of deploying climate financing resources in these contexts. Using Somalia and Yemen as case studies, the paper will take a closer look at how these two countries have fared; and conclude with some reflections and recommendations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

11. Equitable Sharing of Mining Profits: The Best Deal for Tanzania?

Author:
Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Tanzania’s unique approach to mining taxation, described as an equitable sharing of economic benefits between government and mining company according to a negotiated split, could leave the country shortchanged. Tanzanian citizens have access to the terms of only one profit-sharing deal, a 50-50 framework agreement for Barrick’s gold mines. The rest remain unpublished, despite laws that require the government to disclose deal terms. The Barrick deal predicates government revenues more heavily on mine profitability than a more typical regime, making these revenues more uncertain. This structure also increases the risk that companies may seek to avoid tax payments. Negotiating the split on a project-by-project basis, without any legal guardrails on the approach, increases the risks of corruption and unfavorable deal terms. The Tanzanian government could eliminate these risks by borrowing provisions from other countries that also require a specific government share of mine profits but take a different approach. However, unless the government has identified benefits from its current sharing mechanism that a more typical regime does not offer, it should not pursue a sharing mechanism and instead focus on improving the underlying regime, such as increasing its flexibility with regards to profits and reducing tax avoidance risks. To gain more trust from citizens, Tanzania’s government should explain how the mechanism works in existing deals.
Topic:
Government, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Mining, Transparency, Contracts, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

12. The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations

Author:
Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
This report is based on a chapter of my forthcoming book on the relationship between China and Russia. For the US, this is arguably the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. A robust, resilient partnership between Beijing and Moscow has the potential to remake world order. It would usher in an era of international relations based on power and polarity, eroding the role of international law and institutions, and undermining the sovereignty and agency of smaller states. This world order would represent a serious threat to US interests, as currently defined. On the other hand, transactional, “thin” ties between China and Russia allow the US some breathing space. Instead of a revisionist authoritarian alliance, the US would confront two states that represent different types of challenges. In this case, Washington could deal with the acute, militarized threat of Russia in the near term, while remaining postured to confront the “pacing” threat of China—the only potential peer competitor to the US—over the longer term. The academic and policy worlds have been seized with the China-Russia relationship for almost two decades. Policy debates revolve around how to confront the two, with some arguing that the current focus on reversing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine puts the US at risk of being unprepared for the threat China represents. Others argue that Russia is not merely a disruptive power but represents a profound and immediate danger to US interests. Competition for resources often lurks in the background of this debate: US government organizations focused on Europe tend to argue for focusing on Russia first; those with an Indo-Pacific focus tend to argue that China should be the focus. What this debate often fails to consider is the nature of their relationship and its impact on US policy options. The scholarly debate fills this gap by focusing directly on the nature of the relationship: one camp defines it as a strategic partnership and the other defines it as an “axis of convenience.” Often missing from scholarly analysis, though, is an analysis of the implications for US policy. In other words, scholars often argue forcefully for one of these characterizations of the China-Russia relationship but then fail to advise what the US should do in response. Instead, their analysis focuses on the implications of the relationship for theoretical approaches to international relations. The book that will include this report aims to close this gap between the policy and scholarly debates. It aims to provide a better understanding of the nature of the China-Russia relationship and use that understanding to inform US policy options. It will do this through a novel approach. Instead of focusing on Chinese-Russian interaction at the level of the international system, as most approaches do, it focuses on their interaction “on the ground” in regions where both have important interests at stake. This report examines Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa; other chapters of the book focus on Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. Africa and Central Asia provide good testing grounds for the China-Russia relationship because both have important but different interests there. How they advance and defend those interests and how they interact in doing so, can yield important insights into the nature of their overall relationship. These regions are also important because the US footprint is light. The US has been called the “binding agent” in ties between Beijing and Moscow. The idea here is that shared resistance to the US is the only major thing they have in common. In this view, removing the US from the equation will make China and Russia more likely to find reasons to compete rather than cooperate.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

13. Verifying Nuclear Disarmament: Lessons Learned in South Africa, Iraq and Libya

Author:
Robert E. Kelley
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Inspections in the 1990s and early 2000s in South Africa, Iraq and Libya were designed to discover the details of nuclear weapon programmes and destroy any remnants. As the global norm against nuclear weapons strengthens, the international community may once more require verification of a state’s denuclearization. But success in the three earlier cases does not guarantee success in the next similar task—any future inspection mission must learn from the lessons of the past. This report draws on the unique experience of Robert E. Kelley, a participant in all three past denuclearization efforts. In it, he gives an account of the unique scale and circumstances of each investigation and the different tools and approaches required. By publicly documenting and comparing obstacles and successes in the three cases for the first time, this report gives meaningful and practical insight into the difficult work of disarmament and its verification. It is an essential resource for future inspectors—and all others interested in what real disarmament looks like on the ground.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, South Africa, and North Africa

14. Faltering Lion: Analyzing Progress and Setbacks in Somalia’s War against al-Shabaab

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Analysts have long understood the war against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate, as “unwinnable” and “[with] no end in sight.” Most have considered the group one of the largest and most sophisticated jihadist insurgencies on the planet while viewing Somalia, the state in which it was born and primarily operates, as a quintessential “failed state.” Yet in mid-2022, many analysts began to change their tune. Al-Shabaab began to suffer its most significant setbacks in a decade at the hands of a clan uprising in Somalia’s central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The uprising quickly received military support from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and some United States officials believe it constitutes Somalia’s Anbar Awakening. Meanwhile, Somali officials speak of this offensive, which they’ve now dubbed Operation Black Lion, as the long-awaited death blow against the group. Unfortunately, the pendulum started to swing back after al-Shabaab began regrouping and counterattacking in early 2023. As of September 2023, the Somali government is struggling to complete the offensive that began last year in central Somalia. All the while, the government promises to achieve ever more ambitious goals for defeating the group in its southern Somalian strongholds by the end of 2024. The question, then, is whether Somalia is really turning a page in the war against al-Shabaab, with the group’s defeat or meaningful degradation in sight for the first time in years, or if the FGS’s battlefield progress in 2022 was merely a short-lived setback for the terrorist group. In this report, I argue that the ongoing, if faltering, offensive against al-Shabaab reveals the dilemma of counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa: On the one hand, al-Shabaab is not invincible, and the group’s center of gravity—its ability to gain a modicum of acceptance or legitimacy from vulnerable Somali communities—has been exposed as fragile. On the other hand, Somalia’s perennial and myriad political disputes, as well as other issues like a lack of state capacity and rampant corruption, are preventing its federal and state governments from capitalizing on the opportunities available to them. Instead, Mogadishu, aware of its limited military capacity, is looking to the militaries of neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia to bear the brunt of its anticipated offensive into southern Somalia, even though these countries’ controversial interventions in Somalia over the years have catalyzed al-Shabaab’s formation and expansion. In any case, there appears to be little appetite from either country to engage in another offensive. Al-Shabaab, for its part, is counterattacking against government forces in central Somalia and looking to expand its operations in neighboring countries—in part to hinder those regional militaries’ potential participation in any forthcoming offensive. Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. I have drawn this report from insights I gained during a four-week trip to Kenya and Somalia in June 2023. Within Somalia, I traveled around the federal capital, Mogadishu, as well as the capitals of the states of Jubbaland, Galmudug, and Puntland, in the south, center, and north of the country respectively. I also traveled to the frontline town of Bar Sanguuni, near al-Shabaab–controlled territory in Jubbaland, and separately to Las Anod, a disputed city that both Somaliland and local clans have claimed and that is at the heart of a new regional conflict. Given the sensitivity of discussing security matters in Somalia, I have anonymized the details of interview subjects in almost all references.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Alliance, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

15. Fragile States Index 2023 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Emily Sample, Wendy Wilson, and John Madden
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
War, Territorial Disputes, Fragile States, Political stability, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Armenia, Peru, Guyana, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh

16. Advancing Victims’ Rights and Rebuilding Just Communities: Local Strategies for Achieving Reparation as a Part of Sustainable Development

Author:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This comparative study examines strategies used by local actors to facilitate the operationalization of reparations for victims of widespread human rights violations, while highlighting the synergies between these efforts and sustainable development. The study is based on the fieldwork of ICTJ and its partners in four contexts—Colombia, The Gambia, Tunisia, and Uganda. These countries represent a range of different situations, where the progress made, challenges faced, and overall political and institutional contexts vary significantly. Nonetheless, comparison of the approaches used across the cases offers valuable insights for those working in these and other contexts. In The Gambia, the truth commission and legislation for reparations have created expectations among victims, but a program has yet to be implemented. In Uganda, the legal and policy framework for reparations exists, but there is no enabling legislation or mechanism to provide them as a result of stalled political will. In Tunisia, the truth commission recommended reparations, but the political and economic situation make operationalization unlikely. In Colombia, challenges faced by reparations have informed the design of restorative sanctions that include reparative projects but are yet to be implemented. The major insights gained from this comparative study relate to the specific ways in which reparations can contribute to individual and community well-being and development; innovative and effective approaches to ensuring victims and communities receive reparations and support, including through collective action, engagement with government, and grassroots initiatives; the integration of victims’ needs and priorities into development policies and models; and the reparative elements of complementary accountability and reform measures that are participatory, address corruption and marginalization, and contribute to gender justice and equality. The report offers practical guidance and policy recommendations for advancing reparations as an integral element of broader societal efforts to facilitate inclusion, justice, peace, and development.
Topic:
Human Rights, Sustainable Development Goals, Accountability, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Colombia, South America, Tunisia, and Gambia

17. Europe after the War

Author:
Rym Ayadi, Paolo Garonna, and Goran Svilanovic
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This book, a collaboration between CEPS and the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association (EMEA), is a collection of papers which discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe spanning a wide range of areas from geopolitical scenarios to economic prospects, sustainable energy to logistics, and the Eastern European dimension to EU-Africa relations. The authors of this book believe that we are living an unprecedented ‘European moment’, and that this moment can and should be seized upon to respond to present and future shocks. Both the papers collected in this volume and the manifesto presented point out the most promising directions of the leap forward that is required – more assertive and unified policies towards Eastern Europe, the Euro-Mediterranean region and Africa, a federalist drive towards more effective and fairer economic and social governance, the fight against polarisation, and the strengthening of liberal democracy.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

18. Investing in inclusive governance yields dividends in Africa

Author:
Pranish Desai, Monique Bennett, Nnaemeka Ohamadike, and Chrissy Dube
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Over the long term, there is a clear association between accountable and inclusive governance on the one hand and broad-based economic development on the other.1 We find empirical support for this assessment at the global, African, and regional levels within Africa across both shorter and more extended periods of time. The explanation is that a long-term governance environment which embraces accountability is also more politically stable, enabling consistent policymaking, which can sustain economic dynamism and meet citizens’ needs. Concerningly, there are African countries, including Angola, which have recently sought to repress rather than encourage participation. This has been one contributing factor to the recent stagnation and reversals which Angola has experienced in critical measures of human development pertaining to education, health and economic outcomes. This intelligence report identifies the critical implications that this finding has for companies with committed financial interests in African countries: • The importance of inclusive governance is that a more participatory, accountable and nondiscriminatory society will also see corresponding improvements in broad-based economic development, which benefits businesses and citizens in tandem. • The private sector has both an incentive and a responsibility to actively invest in mechanisms that encourage accountable governance in African countries where they operate. Investing in these mechanisms minimises the reputational risk companies open themselves up to by engaging in opportunistic behaviour which bolsters rather than blocks repressive behaviour by African governments. • Through supporting inclusive governance initiatives emanating from African civil society and local communities, companies can demonstrate that they have a long-term commitment to fostering economic development in the world’s fastest-growing continent.
Topic:
Governance, Investment, Economic Development, Private Sector, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa

19. The state of the renewable energy independent power producer procurement programme: Where to from here?

Author:
Busisipho Siyobi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, recently briefed South Africa on the progress of the Energy Action Plan and the challenges associated with its implementation. Minister Ramokgopa further remarked on the positive socio-economic impact that the Renewable Energy Independent Power Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) has had on the industry and economy. Over R300 billion has been attracted for infrastructure investment and over 120 independent power producers have been selected as preferred bidders. These success factors indicate great potential for an optimal energy mix, led by renewable energy sources, to be attained. They also highlight opportunities for more private-sector investment. For this potential to be fully maximised, programme design, programme management and market dynamics will be critical to factor in. This report assesses the abovementioned overarching categories and illustrates mechanisms that will be integral to facilitating increased private sector investment into grid-connected renewable energy generation. This will yield efficient management of REIPPPP and further enable improved economic growth and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

20. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:
Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

21. Localizing Humanitarian Action in Africa

Author:
Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Kurtzer Jacob D., and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The international humanitarian community is increasingly focusing on the need for local and national actors to lead humanitarian response and recovery efforts in conflict-affected or disaster-prone regions, especially in the Global South. Local and national actors responding to crises remain severely underfunded, particularly in Africa, where civil society organizations (CSOs) receive insufficient funding from African and international actors alike. African funders reportedly directed 9 percent of large gifts to African CSOs between 2010 and 2019, while non-African philanthropists provided 14 percent of their funding to these groups. The United States is the world’s largest foreign assistance donor, having contributed $35.5 billion in overseas development assistance (ODA) in 2020. Much of this aid goes to sub-Saharan Africa, including $8.5 billion to 47 countries and 8 regional programs in 2020. Yet national and local organizations receive little of this funding directly. At the same time, Washington has repeatedly signaled a commitment to the “localization” of humanitarian aid, or the shift of decisionmaking power, program implementation, and resources to local and national actors. Yet localized humanitarian assistance in Africa has failed to materialize. Bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles, as well as geostrategic calculations, pose a challenge to localization efforts. African voices are excluded from the decisionmaking landscape—in donor discussions and localization efforts themselves—resulting in a gap in cultural competency. The conversation on localization in Africa cannot be limited to the African continent; it must occur in donor capitals, with African voices leading the dialogue. To achieve sustainable localization, the U.S. and African policy landscapes should resolve bureaucratic obstacles and shift an exclusionary aid paradigm to one that is inclusive and builds on existing successes.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Intervention, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa

22. CCP Inc. in West Africa: How Chinese Party-State Actors Secured Critical Minerals in Guinea

Author:
Briana Boland, Lauren Maranto, and Jude Blanchette
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This CCP Inc. case study explores how Chinese diplomatic, regulatory, financial, and commercial actors work in concert to secure critical minerals in the West African nation of Guinea. Efforts in Guinea to mine bauxite and iron ore, the primary inputs for aluminum and steel, illuminate Beijing’s conduits for influencing and supporting its geo-economic objectives. Examining one key Chinese player in Guinea’s mining sector, this study highlights state actors’ connections with nominally private Chinese companies and the importance of partnerships with state-owned enterprises for building costly infrastructure. Across multiple bauxite and iron ore mining ventures, Chinese diplomatic support and state financing provided conduits to help further favored projects and increase Chinese companies’ access to Guinea’s mining industries.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Mining, and Superpower
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Guinea

23. Concurrent Crises in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Kurtzer Jacob D., Sierra Ballard, and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The greater Horn of Africa, stretching from southern Ethiopia to northern Kenya and Somalia, is experiencing its worst drought in four decades. A fourth consecutive failed rainy season caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon has generated extreme drought conditions that have curtailed agricultural production, destroyed crops, and killed more than 3 million livestock, threatening the livelihoods and lives of millions of farmers and pastoralists. Across the region, more than 20 million people currently face starvation, and nearly 6 million children under the age of five are acutely malnourished. The number of individuals impacted by acute food insecurity will likely increase to over 25 million by mid-2022, hitting conflict-affected Ethiopia and Somalia the hardest, potentially leading to widespread malnutrition and starvation. Droughts in the region are not new, but they are becoming more frequent and severe, resulting in longer-term impacts. Climate models forecast the upcoming October–December rains to underperform, meaning the region will likely see an unprecedented five-season drought. Rangelands are unable to recover from increasing drought cycles and pastoralist livelihoods may no longer be viable in many areas. The current drought is the latest of many crises afflicting the Horn, including the Covid-19 pandemic, devastating floods, and locust outbreaks. The Horn is also one of the most conflict-affected regions of the world. Each country in the Horn has experienced some measure of political strife for decades. Conflict and violence have compounded the effects of climatic shocks on affected populations by creating additional needs and barriers for international humanitarian organizations and frontline local actors. Women and girls are bearing the brunt of these concurrent crises due to prevailing gender inequalities, which hinder their participation in decisionmaking mechanisms and humanitarian response and recovery efforts, undermining the integration of local actors in humanitarian action. While resilience-building efforts have made some progress in mitigating impacts from drought, they are not yet scaled to the overwhelming need. The combined effects of the climatic and political crises necessitate both an emergency humanitarian response and the implementation of long-term climate adaptation and resilience strategies.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Disaster Management, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa

24. Supporting Water Programming in the Sahel

Author:
Conor M. Savoy and Alexandra Norris
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Sahel region of Africa is one of the most climate-affected regions in the world. Temperatures are rising 1.5 percent faster than the global average rate. Increasing temperatures and irregular rainfall have resulted in regular droughts and floods that disrupt traditional agropastoral patterns and contribute to broader instability and fragility. Lake Chad, a crucial water and livelihood source for 30 million people in the Sahel, has shrunk by 90 percent since 1960, displacing 2.3 million people and creating a humanitarian crisis. Periods of prolonged and intense drought and improper land use have degraded much of the soil in the Sahel. In Burkina Faso, over one-third of farmland is degraded, meaning some land cannot sustain agriculture even when there is enough rainfall. A rapidly increasing population, coupled with the impact of climate change, means more people are competing for diminishing water resources. This results in a vicious cycle of population growth, land degradation, and food instability. The greater the population, the greater the demand for food and the greater the use of unsustainable farming practices, exacerbating food scarcity and demand for additional farmland. As the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) updates its water strategy, it is important to examine the interplay of economic and conflict fragility, irregular migration, climate change, and water availability in the Sahel to identify interventions for greater resilience. In a region like the Sahel, water is critical to resilience and adaptation to the effects of climate change. While water strategy is not a cure-all, it can improve outcomes for other challenges. The Biden administration recently announced the new Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), an initiative to mobilize private capital investment in infrastructure. The four pillars of this initiative—climate and energy security, digital connectivity, health and health security, and gender equality and equity—could support additional investments in water infrastructure.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Health, Water, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

25. How Innovative Financing Models Can Support the Scaling of Supply Chain Innovations

Author:
Allie Dichiara and John Simon
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Substantial progress has been made toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3: Health and Well-Being for All. However, progress is plateauing as global health development funding decelerates, and much of the remaining gaps are among the hardest to address, especially for the most vulnerable and hardest-to-reach communities. A key element to reigniting progress toward SDG 3 is significantly improving the effectiveness of the current fragmented health commodity supply chain, through which billions in spending—approximately $6 billion in donor funds in 2015 and $50 billion in overall spending in 2017—flow each year to low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). Fortunately, there is a growing number of innovative supply chain solutions available across sub-Saharan Africa that could have the potential to dramatically improve the underperforming status quo.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Africa

26. Roadmap to Zero-Carbon Electrification of Africa by 2050: The Green Energy Transition and the Role of the Natural Resource Sector (Minerals, Fossil Fuels, and Land)

Author:
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
All Africans—whether living in urban or rural areas—need access to affordable, clean, efficient, reliable, climateproof, and renewable energy for both residential and productive uses to achieve sustainable development objectives. This report sets out a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for Africa’s zero-carbon energy transformation by 2050, with most advances achieved by 2030. Natural resource management in minerals, fossil fuels, and land sits at the core of the strategy. The world is moving to decarbonization by 2050. This was the dominant geopolitical message of 2021, appearing, for example, in U.S. President Joe Biden’s online summit with world leaders in April 2021 and in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Report on Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, which stated that there was “no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply” in a pathway to net zero by 2050. Africa will be part of this global trend. The UNFCCC COP 26 evidenced the continued commitment to the world to this agenda, with the Global Methane Pledge and the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use, holding strong promises to respectively reduce methane by 2030 by 30% relatively to 2020 levels and end all deforestation by 2030 while strongly investing in reforestation. Prospective oil and gas projects in Africa will no longer be pursued as overseas markets and financing will shrink. The Russian war on Ukraine in 2022 has reinforced the determination of Europeans and Americans to wean off Russian gas in the short term and off all gas in the medium to long term, seeing in the energy transition an opportunity to meet parallel goals of decarbonization and energy independence. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2022 notes that, even under a relatively conservative “stated policies” scenario, global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak or plateau in the coming years and subsequently fall. The report also notes that the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though leading to a short-term increase in fossil fuel demand, has consolidated the global long-term shift toward renewable energy, energy efficiency, and electrification. In parallel to this reality, Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, in the solar and hydropower sectors especially, will engage increasingly bankable and highly attractive investments. In net terms, Africa has a huge amount to gain from a decisive buildup of renewable energy and the capacity to produce the minerals, hardware, and software of the new zero-carbon energy economy.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Africa

27. No Time to Waste: Governing Cobalt Amid the Energy Transition

Author:
David Manley, Patrick Heller, and William Davis
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Cobalt is critical. Along with other critical minerals, cobalt has important economic uses and currently few viable substitutes, yet its supply faces a high risk of disruption. Manufacturers of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) want the metal. EV sales—and likewise, cobalt demand— could grow a lot more. Yet, cobalt may not remain critical for decades to come. EV buyers, battery manufacturers and miners fear the high prices and disrupted supply, as well as human right abuses, environmental destruction, corruption, and political risk. As with other critical minerals, industries are seeking to use less of the metal. The time available for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and other countries to benefit from mining the metal may be short-lived. Good governance is therefore important both for people in mining countries and for humanity to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. This report aims to help governments and their advisors in mining countries, such as the DRC, derive value from mining cobalt, develop industry along the battery-supply chains and address a host of problems from human rights abuses to corruption. The report is also for policy-makers working to ensure that the world delivers enough cobalt in time for the global energy transition.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Energy, Green Transition, and Cobalt
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

28. Triple Win: How Mining Can Benefit Africa’s Citizens, Their Environment and the Energy Transition

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, David Manley, Silas Olan'g, and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Africa’s mineral wealth is essential for the energy transition and for the hundreds of millions of people currently living in poverty in African mining countries. Whether and how governments and companies move to further extract this mineral wealth is not only economically and environmentally important for Africa, but also for the vital importance of protecting the world’s rapidly diminishing forests. The world therefore needs a mining triple win: policies that can benefit Africa’s citizens, their environment, and the energy transition. These policies need to work for all if they are to work for any of them. But mining in Africa has been riddled with injustice. Humanity cannot afford to repeat the mistakes that have beset Africa’s mining in the past. To achieve a triple win, this time must be different. There are a whole host of policies available, and many ideas from experts. NRGI has brought these together and considered how they may work to truly achieve a triple win.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Mining, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Correlates of Politics and Economics: How Chinese Investment in Africa Changes Political Influence

Author:
Carla D. Jones, Mengge Li, and Hermann A. Ndofor
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of Chinese economic engagement in Africa (FDI and loans from China to African countries) on African countries’ international political alignment as evidenced by voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. We find three seasons of Chinese policy in Africa. Pre 2008, Chinese economic engagement in Africa was driven primarily by economic considerations, market seeking for FDI and likely resource seeking for loans. During the Great Recession, China came to terms with its rise as an economic power and thus started leveraging its economic power in international relationships. During this season, both Chinese FDI and loans were no longer driven by economic considerations but rather by international relations which led to increased political alignment with recipient African countries. The final season captured the Xi Jinping era beginning 2013. During this season, Chinese FDI had no effect on African countries’ foreign policy alignment with China, but Chinese loans still had a significant positive effect. This likely reflects a movement away from FDI to less transparent bilateral loans as a means of utilizing Chinese economic power to influence foreign policy. During the entire period of the study, Chinese FDI to Africa resulted in reduced political alignment between African countries and the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Investment, and Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

30. The Wagner Group's Playbook in Africa: Mali

Author:
Raphael Parens
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
What is the Wagner Group doing in Mali? Since it rose to prominence after its involvement in the Syrian Civil War alongside the Assad regime, Wagner Group, a Russian-owned Private Military Contractor (PMC), has expanded its footprint into Africa. [1] Wagner has immersed itself in Libya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan, leading training exercises, fighting anti-government forces, and brutally quelling protests. Wagner Group often overlaps with Russian state foreign policy aims, but its position as an independent contractor lends it unpredictability, while giving Russia plausible deniability. The group offers the Russian state a valuable tool: the ability to test new environments for military cooperation without appearing heavy-handed or overtly involved. Wagner has established a pattern of political, military, and economic involvement in Sudan and CAR since 2015. Wagner Group and its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have followed this strategy successfully in Mali, contributing to France’s recent decision to withdraw its military forces from the country. Although Wagner group still needs to adapt its strategy to succeed in a new environment in Mali, the Kremlin has strong-armed a key competitor out of the country. This creates potential contagion effects for the rest of the Sahel, particularly those countries facing long-term insurgencies, such as Burkina Faso.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Wagner Group, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Mali

31. AQIM’s Imperial Playbook: Understanding al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb’s Expansion into West Africa

Author:
Caleb Weiss
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In 2021, the United Nations noted the newfound threats of the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), a branch of al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), that extended into Burkina Faso and the Ivory Coast, stretching farther yet into Ghana, Togo, and Benin. Had an observer in 2006 had this information presented to them, they might have scarcely believed it. That year, in which AQIM was formed, the group was a thoroughly North African organization and based primarily in Algeria. Fast forward 15 years, how did AQIM end up nearly 1,300 miles away, now posing immediate threats in the states of littoral West Africa? Relying on a combination of primary source jihadi propaganda and historical research, this report argues that over the past 30 years, al-Qa`ida and its branches and allies in North and West Africa have followed what this report calls “al- Qa`ida’s Imperial Playbook,” as they have sought to expand their areas of influence southward. Al-Qa`ida’s “playbook,” this report shows, is composed of five fundamental tactics: befriending or creating militant groups operating in the midst of conflict; integrating themselves into communities where those militants exist; exploiting grievances of those communities to gain sympathy; addressing internal or external dissent either passively or aggressively; and looking toward new theaters once their base is solidified. Al-Qa`ida has subsequently utilized this playbook to expand southward from its Algeria base in five distinct historical periods: from 1992- 1998; 1998-2006; 2006-2012; 2013-2017; and 2017-present. The report concludes that al-Qa`ida and its affiliates in northern and western Africa are likely to continue to use this playbook as they continue their contemporary expansion into West Africa.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, and History
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

32. Assessing U.S. Counterterrorism in Africa, 2001-2021: Summary Document of CTC’s Africa Regional Workshop

Author:
Jason Warner, Julia Broomer, and Stephanie Lizzo
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On October 21, 2021, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point, as part of the Recrudescence Project (a research collaboration with the Middle East Institute and the Center on National Security at Fordham Law), hosted a closed-door workshop with 18 top observers of U.S.-Africa policy from across government, academia, think-tanks, and the private sector. The goal of CTC’s Africa Regional Workshop was to assess the successes and challenges of U.S. policy to address terrorism by violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and to assist in counterterrorism (CT) efforts on the African continent over the past 20 years (2001-2021), and to consider how these approaches might be improved in the future. This anonymized summary document offers an overview of the findings from that workshop. Three topics of concern are the focus of this summary: assessments of U.S. kinetic counterterrorism engagement in Africa; assessments of U.S. non-kinetic counterterrorism engagement in Africa; and the future of U.S.-Africa policy beyond a counterterrorism lens.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

33. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:
Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:
International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

34. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
Topic:
Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

35. Managing Vigilantism in Nigeria: A Near-term Necessity

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Vigilantes have become so important to protecting the Nigerian public that for now the country has little choice but to rely on them. Yet there are dangers. Authorities should better regulate these groups, while working to restore citizens’ trust in the police.
Topic:
Governance, Conflict, Police, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

36. Saïed’s Tunisia: Promoting Dialogue and Fixing the Economy to Ease Tensions

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

37. Rebels, Victims, Peacebuilders: Women in Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Years of fighting between separatists and the state in Cameroon have hit women hard, uprooting hundreds of thousands. The government and external partners should step up aid for the displaced. Donors should start planning now for including women activists in future peace talks.
Topic:
Women, Conflict, Peace, Victims, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

38. Education, Training and Capacity Building in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2021: Multilateral and Bilateral Ambitions Twenty Years On

Author:
Kenneth King
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The latest Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place in Dakar, Senegal in November 2021. Among the huge range of pledges and agreements, one of the most extensive was capacity building through scholarships, targeted training and people-to-people exchanges. In this Occasional Paper, Kenneth King analyses China’s pledges not just in the sphere of formal education, but across the many different sectors of China’s collaboration with Africa for the next three years. While the impact of COVID-19 can be seen in the reduction of some face-to-face opportunities in China, the extent of what is agreed to be implemented in Africa remains significant. Though these ambitious promises are agreed multilaterally with the whole of Africa, they are delivered bilaterally across the continent in more than fifty different country settings, reflecting how the Africa-China relationship remains strong after two decades of growing engagement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Training, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Africa and China

39. Governing Cities in Africa. A Panorama of Challenges and Perspectives

Author:
Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
By 2050, about 60% of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will live in urban areas. The governance of the rapid growth of capital and intermediary cities in Africa is one of the priorities of the international development agenda. Between 2020 and 2050, African cities, and especially secondary cities, have to absorb more than 700 million urban dwellers. Given these projections, urban growth in Africa has become a central concern of the international community, including experts from international organizations, researchers, aid agencies, and the private sector. While expert meetings and research initiatives on the future of cities are accumulating, this study aims to take stock of the debate. First, it provides an overview of the major issues that mostly policy-oriented research on cities in Africa has dealt with since independence. Based on this review, our paper builds on the concept of urban governance to approach the transformation and growth of African cities. Hereby we take into consideration the multiple actors (public, private, civil society, etc.), policy sectors (land, housing, infrastructure, etc.), and scales (local, national, international) that shape the political, economic, and social aspects of urban life. The paper also addresses African cities as part of a broader urban-rural continuum. Second, this study proposes concrete avenues to contribute to ongoing research and technical initiatives on urban governance in Africa. More knowledge and data are needed to inform the debate on urban infrastructure financing and the role of intermediate cities in the broader urbanization process in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that a more detailed comprehension of land tenure systems is fundamental to understanding the challenges of future urban development in Africa.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Urban, Rural, and Cities
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Tanzania, and Sub-Saharan Africa

40. India–East Africa: A Not So Healthy Relationship?

Author:
Isabelle Saint-Mezard and Françoise Nicolas
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Due to historical as well as geographical reasons, India and East Africa have long been close partners. In the recent period however, and even more so since the early 2000s, these ties have tightened as a result of combined efforts by the government of India and its business community. The presence of communities of Indian origin in several East African countries has also acted as a catalyst. East Africa is perceived as a valuable partner both by Indian authorities and by Indian private companies. Although the two types of Indian players may not explicitly coordinate their actions, their interests dovetail nicely in this particular region. The health sector sticks out as one major sector on which Indian actors focus in East Africa. It provides a striking example of the multilayered complementarity between India and East Africa, on the one hand, and between public and private Indian players’ interests on the other. However, India’s activism in the health sector is not necessarily perceived positively by the East African host countries. Despite some technology transfers and efforts by the Indian actors, be they public or private, to promote capacity-building, East African countries find themselves in a situation of dependence as a result of Indian companies exporting and producing drugs, building hospitals, improving hospital management and Information Technology (IT) infrastructure, or digitalizing healthcare. However, the major point of tension pertains to the promotion of medical tourism. Although offshore healthcare comes with many benefits, it is unlikely to be sustainable for the East African economies in the long run. Moreover, the money spent on medical tourism could arguably be used more usefully to develop local medical facilities and competence. The recent developments in the context of the pandemic have made the associated risk very clear. The challenge in the coming years will be for the two parties to find a way to better balance their relationship and set it on firmer ground – in other words, to make it healthier.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Health, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and India

41. Sahel States Opt for Negotiations with Jihadists

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The inability of local and international forces to defeat the jihadists in the Sahel region has led to grassroots initiatives to reach an understanding with them. In Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, preparations are also underway for similar talks by governments, with the hope of including some extremists in the political mainstream. This may help with stabilising the volatile situation, but it carries the risk of strengthening the influence of the radicals.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Negotiation, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

42. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Eritrea

43. Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going. Atraveler through today’s Africa might be surprised by frequent markers of a distant power: Turkey. Consider that in Somalia, “Istanbul” is now one of the most popular girls’ names and that Turkey’s largest embassy in the world is located in Mogadishu. In the tiny coastal nation of Guinea-Bissau, Ankara has announced a new embassy, its forty-fourth on the continent. Meanwhile, state-owned Turkish Airlines now flies to sixty-one African destinations, compared to just a handful when Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government began its Africa outreach two decades ago. Trade volume has soared as well, with projects like Turkey’s proposed $4 billion development of Sudan’s Suakin Port drawing headlines­—and consternation from rivals in the Gulf. In this illuminating Policy Note, Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh survey Ankara’s robust activity in sub-Saharan Africa, where dynamics are shifting, and not always to Turkey’s advantage. Amid an economic swoon at home, Ankara is seeking improved ties with Middle East states and could be receptive to cooperating with Washington in Africa as part of the competition against other great powers, namely, China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Sub-Saharan Africa

44. Measuring the Resilience of Livelihoods in Darfur: The Income Streams Index

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick and Hassan Alattar Satti
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Resilience is the recognition that people are active agents in their own survival in the face of crises. Understanding the dynamics of how households in crisis-prone contexts plan for and respond to crises can help structure policy, development, and humanitarian activities to support their strategies, reducing the impact of crises, speeding recovery, and reducing the amount of humanitarian assistance required. A resilience indicator that is both quantitative and descriptive is needed to see how crises affect households and the livelihoods through which they meet their needs. Previously proposed measures either use proxies of outcomes or combinations of economic and wealth measurements, but none measure livelihoods themselves in real-time. This report uses an innovative real-time index, the Income Streams Index (ISI), to teach us how households in South, West, and North Darfur states in Sudan managed and adapted their livelihood activities in the face of multiple shocks of various types and sizes over a three-year period (2018 to 2021).
Topic:
Development, Resilience, Livelihoods, and Structuralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

45. Market Access and Quality Critical for Food Security in Periods of Stress

Author:
Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This briefing paper describes how market access is associated with household food security and dietary diversity in the Karamoja region of Uganda in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, according to both the study’s primary data and secondary data, households experienced significantly worse conflict, climate, and economic shocks compared with 2019. These shocks in 2018 led to a decline in livestock production, increase in food prices, and declines in terms of trade. While the experience of shocks was worse according to many indicators in 2018, household food security and , dietary diversity data remained relatively similar across the two years. The data indicate that greater use of markets during the more stressful 2018 year might have mitigated the expected, but not observed reduction in food security. Better market quality and access was associated with using fewer short-term coping strategies and better food security and dietary diversity, but only in 2018, when households experienced more shocks. Thus, households are likely to be more reliant on markets during periods of greater stress. This analysis is part of the United States Agency for International Development/Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA)-funded Apolou Activity, a consortium led by Mercy Corps. It was designed to help Mercy Corps and other national and international actors to address youth’s vulnerability and opportunities in the Karamoja sub-region. The findings are part of a four-year study carried out in four districts of the Karamoja sub-region. The analysis and findings in this report focus on the first and second round of quantitative data from November/December 2018 and 2019. The data come from a longitudinal two-stage randomized cluster sample of approximately 500 households across 52 villages. The same respondents were interviewed across both years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food, Children, Resilience, and Household
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

46. Youth political participation in post-2011 Tunisia: Exploring the impact of the youth quota system through the prism of local municipal councillors

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Introduced as way to induct youth into institutional politics, Tunisia modified its electoral code in 2014 to include a youth quota, with a mandatory representation of youth on electoral lists for local elections. In April-May 2018, Tunisia held elections for local councils, representing the first mandatory iteration of these youth quotas in practice. The mandatory character of the quotas has theoretically meant that a greater number of young people ran during these elections and are today participating in institutional politics at the local level. What has been the impact of these youth quotas in stimulating youth meaningful participation in the political process? To answer this question, the Arab Reform Initiative conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with ten young local councillors at the municipalities of Kasserine, Foussana, Medjez El Beb, Kairouan, Hajeb Laayoun,e and Chebika. The research sought to understand what distinguished these young councillors from the rest of their age cohort, and in particular to understand what factors led them to become active in the political realm. The research also sought to explore the impact of political socialization on them, as well as their own values and understandings of politics. Finally, the research explored the difficulties they have encountered or are still encountering as young councillors working in public institutions that are new to them. The research has found that primary and secondary socialization are behind youth’s political participation. Young councillors entered politics with the “help” of their primary socialization (family) and secondary socialization (civil society, volunteering, etc.); nonetheless, all of the councillors we met were solicited by older people in their environment (family, friends, professors) looking for young people to add to their list. In other words, none had initiated their own electoral bids, and only a couple were thinking of running for the elections before being solicited. The research has also found that for these young councillors, age difference and gender are perceived as sources of tension. Age difference among the councillors, as well as with the mayor, are perceived as having a negative impact on the youth’s work at the council. This age difference can also take the shape of an experience gap that plays to the detriment of young councillors, as many of the older councillors held the same positions during the Ben Ali era. Likewise, gender intersects negatively with age for young women councillors. Most women councillors noticed that older male councillors adopt certain attitudes to belittle them during the meetings. Moreover, they state that men tend to take advantage of women’s temporal and spatial limitations (their inability to stay out late at night or sit in men’s cafés, for instance) to take decisions in their absence. Yet, alliances based on age are difficult to create, and the only alliance formed was between three young women in Chebika. Despite the difficulties they encounter because of their age and gender, most councillors are gaining experience and self-confidence, leading them to consider running for re-election. Learning, understanding, and ultimately seeing one’s impact in the local environment have been raised as the most motivational aspects of being a councillor. Nonetheless, youth councillors still harbor distinct ideas regarding electoral politics: all of the councillors reject political parties, even those who ran under party banners. They see the “country’s interest” as their main political compass, yet some consider their mandate to be to fight against their region’s historical marginalization. Currently none of the councillors interviewed is affiliated to a political party, and most expressed clear rejection of parties. They perceive them as inefficient and detrimental to the “country’s interest” which held a central place in the councillor’s evaluation of the political landscape. Political parties were mainly depicted as going against the “nation’s interest,” a notion that transcended political affiliations, ideologies, or social class. The youth quota system thus appears to be efficient in inducting youth into institutional politics to the point where most of the councillors we met are considering renewing and deepening (as in running for legislative elections, for instance) their participation in the political landscape. However, the youth quota reaches a limit given the lack of diversity of the youth whose entrance it permitted. The quota opens the way to the most educated portions of youth, that is university graduates, but does not reach young people who left school early. Moreover, these young people have been for the most part socialized into politics through their family or through affiliations such as student unions and local NGOs. Given this, the youth quota – still in its nascent stage – has only a limited impact as it exclusively reaches young people who have predisposition for entering the political realm in the first place.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

47. Youth perceptions of politics in the post-2011 Tunisia: Giving the floor to millennials and Gen Z

Author:
Zied Boussen
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With the annual anniversary of Tunisia’s 2011 Revolution approaching, this study aims to better understand the views of Tunisian youth on politics and the country’s democratic transition, as well as their ambitions and priorities for themselves. In order to understand Tunisian youth today, one must distinguish between two different generations: the generation that led or actively engaged in the revolution (Millennials between 26 and 35 years old), and the generation that only became of age after the start of the political transition (Gen Z, “zoomers,” between 18 and 26 years old). As such, we believe that these two groups of youth show generational differences in terms of their perceptions and interests in politics. To understand generational differences among the youth, 12 focus groups were organized by the Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) across six different municipalities in Tunisia. For Medjez el Bab, Kasserine and Foussana, ARI partnered with the Humetna Association and collaborated with “We Start for Kairouan”, “Hajeb El Ayoun” and “Shabikah”. Youths from each cohort would gather every time to answer questions about what they remember from the pre-2011 and post-2011 periods, about their values and expectations, as well as their priorities and how they assess the services provided by the State. Key findings showed that the sense of belonging to a single generation does not apply to everyone. Millennial respondents seem to identify to a generational group separate from Gen Z, whereas the latter recognizes little to no differences. The differences highlighted by millennials concern lifestyle, spoken language, cultural references, and even the relationship with new technologies. Nonetheless, both groups agree that these differences are far more pronounced among their parents and elders, more so in socio-economic and geographic factors, than age or generational differences. In parallel, the study revealed generational differences with the past. While the two groups share their overall negative assessment of the political situation in the country, Gen Z respondents showed some gaps in their memory of pre-2011 Tunisia and the 2011 events. They also associated the Ben Ali era with more positive aspects than what is present today (calm, security, prosperity). In contrast, millennials had more layered perceptions of the past. Generational differences in terms of social and employment prospects were also detected in the research. Generally, millennials have a bleaker outlook than Gen Z, which is less inclined to leave the country if the opportunity presents itself. However, generational differences are less visible vis-à-vis current politics. Both groups see the role of political parties and leaders in a negative light, with the exception of some atypical figures, namely Kais Saied. For most millennials and zoomers, democracy remains vague, without real impact on their daily lives or foundation in Tunisian academic programs. The main values mentioned are respect, ethics, justice, and equality among all citizens.
Topic:
Politics, Youth, Participation, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

48. The role of local governance in achieving political stability: A joint public-private effort towards sustainable development

Author:
Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Improving local governments' performance is vital because it is the governance sphere that is closest to local communities, local businesses, and local economic activities. It is in the best interest of companies operating in municipalities to play an active role in ensuring that their host municipalities can effectively deliver services, maintain infrastructure and plan for the future, thereby catalysing sustainable development. This will not only benefit municipalities and businesses but communities at large.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Political stability, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Africa

49. The Russia-Ukraine War and addressing Africa's food security challenges

Author:
Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted and worsened systemic weaknesses in the current international food system which pose a disproportionate risk to African countries, and companies doing business in Africa, due in large part to their high dependence on fuel and food imports.
Topic:
Food Security, Business, Imports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

50. Implications of COP26 for Africa's mining industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Due to the importance of critical minerals in the energy transition, the mining industry has a significant role to play in the pursuit of a net-zero future. At the same time, critical minerals mining is an environmentally damaging process, often occurring in jurisdictions with poor labour and environment standards, compounded by political instability risk. The recently concluded 26th Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) shows that Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) integration must play a larger role in the mining industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Political stability, Mining, Industry, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa

51. A Compendium on the State of Peace, Reconciliation and Healing in Southern Africa

Author:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report details the shared challenges and opportunities Lesotho, Namibia, Mozambique, Mauritius, Seychelles and Zimbabwe face with respect to how they have approached, and continue to approach, transitional justice processes.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Violence, Reconciliation, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Lesotho

52. The Marikana Massacre: Repair and Corporate Accountability 10 Years On

Author:
Malose Langa, Hugo van der Merwe, Modiege Merafe, and Jordi Vives-Gabriel
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:
This report focuses on the process of corporate redress in response to the Marikana Massacre, which occurred on 16 August 2012. The study sought to examine the various forms of reparations that have been provided to victims by the mining company and to understand this process in the context of other processes of justice and repair to address the consequences of conflict and violence. As such, this report forms part of a broader international study on the role of corporate actors in transitional justice processes.1 The report provides a brief description of the events in Marikana against the backdrop of the history of mining in apartheid South Africa and the subsequent transition to democracy. It frames the causes of the massacre as embedded in the unresolved transition and South Africa’s failure to confront the legacy of exploitation and repression in the mining sector. It also seeks to unpack the various initiatives undertaken in response to the massacre, focusing particularly on the measures to address the needs of injured and arrested mineworkers as well as the families of those who were killed.
Topic:
Torture, Criminal Justice, State Violence, Police, Reconciliation, and Corporate Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

53. The Russians are coming! The Russians are coming? Russia’s growing presence in Africa and its implication for European policy

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The growth of Russia’s presence across Africa over the last decade has generated significant international concern, further exacerbated after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s engagement can affect the interests and policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states (MS) in Africa. How should European policymakers understand these developments and respond to them? To answer this question, this report looks at Russia’s engagement in Africa, reaching three main conclusions. First, Moscow’s engagement with Africa has so far remained limited as compared to that of other global players, particularly in the economic domain. The current level of (media) attention devoted to Russia’s role in Africa is thus not supported by sufficient evidence of its actual engagement in the continent. At the same time, however, the growth of Russia’s presence is a real trend. Second, Russian actors are guided by a rather loose strategy when it comes to Africa. The Russian state has some interests that act as a broad framework. However, the actual engagement is carried out not only by state actors, but also by state-backed conglomerates and politically connected private businesses. These latter actors have their own specific interests, which are not always fully aligned with those of the Russian state. While state actors are often driven by geopolitical considerations, Russian companies are more interested in economic opportunities. Third, Russia’s engagement in African countries is significantly shaped by the different national contexts and by the interests of African governments. For instance, in a strong state like Ethiopia, Russia’s engagement takes place exclusively at the governmental level. By contrast, in Sudan and Mali (contexts with weaker state structures), other Russian actors like PMCs and private businesses are involved. Yet, in all three cases, Moscow’s presence tends to grow when relations between African governments and their international partners (especially in the West) deteriorate, often in the wake of authoritarian turns. This shows the opportunistic nature of Russia’s engagement, as well as the complex trade-offs faced by EU/MS governments when engaging with African governments. These findings have significant consequences for the policy response of the EU and its member states. This report suggests that: (i) Rather than trying to respond reactively to Russia’s presence, EU/MS should focus on strengthening their own relations with relevant African partners. Addressing some of the political and economic imbalances in the Europe-Africa partnership may be an effective way to strengthen such relations, and by doing so to reduce the chances of an increase in Russia’s influence. (ii) In countries where this preventive strategy is difficult to implement (e.g. when facing authoritarian governments), decisions on whether/how to engage should go beyond debates about Russia’s (potential) presence, and be based instead on a comprehensive understanding of EU/MS interests and norms. Partnerships with non-governmental actors (e.g. the private sector, traditional authorities) may allow EU/MS governments to remain engaged despite souring ties with the government. (iii) In countries where Russia’s presence is already established, evidence-based and context-specific assessments of this presence should inform the EU/MS policy response. This can allow EU/MS governments to avoid overreacting to Russia’s influence, while also not underestimating its dangers. (iv) To pursue their interests in an increasingly multipolar world, EU/MS governments should try to strengthen their leverage vis-à-vis Russia (as well as other actors). To do so, EU/MS policymakers should leverage more strategically the engagement of European businesses across Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Europe

54. How To Talk About Migration in Africa: Classic Hurdles and Six Recommendations for European Policymakers

Author:
Victoria Rietig and Alia Fakhry
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Europeans are entering a decisive period for their relationship with African countries, on migration and beyond. Efforts to strengthen cooperation abound, but many migration initiatives are plagued by frustrations on both sides. So how to break through this vicious cycle and improve the unhealthy relationship? This paper analyzes trends in African migration policies and puts forward six recommendations for European policymakers and experts about how to prepare for their next encounter with their African counterparts – be it a friendly and informal chat or a negotiation.
Topic:
International Relations, Migration, European Union, and Asylum
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

55. Missing or Unseen? Exploring Women’s Roles in Arms Trafficking

Author:
Emilia Dungel and Anne-Séverine Fabre
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The roles of women in arms trafficking have been addressed in broader studies focusing on issues like violent extremism prevention, women offenders, political activism, and transnational crime in relation to drug trafficking and human trafficking. However, there has been little research on this subject from a specific small arms control perspective. Missing or Unseen? Exploring Women’s Roles in Arms Trafficking strives to fill this gap, and examines the extent to which well-established small arms research methods—general population surveys, key informant interviews, and court documentation reviews—can be used to explore arms trafficking through a gender lens. The Report applies these methods in the form of three case studies—in Niger, Ukraine*, and the United States. It finds that the combined use of these methods does help to shed light on specific aspects of women in arms trafficking, such as their varied roles, which include high-risk activities and, in a few cases, leadership positions. The study also offers a number of suggestions for future research in this area.
Topic:
Crime, Women, Arms Trade, and Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, North America, Niger, and United States of America

56. Roadmap to Zero-Carbon Electrification of Africa by 2050: The Green Energy Transition and the Role of the Natural Resource Sector (Minerals, Fossil Fuels, and Land)

Author:
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Perrine Toledano, and Martin Dietrich Brauch
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
All Africans—whether living in urban or rural areas—need access to affordable, clean, efficient, reliable, climate- proof, and renewable energy for both residential and productive uses to achieve sustainable development objectives. This report sets out a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for Africa’s zero-carbon energy transformation by 2050, with most advances achieved by 2030. Natural resource management in minerals, fossil fuels, and land sits at the core of the strategy. The world is moving to decarbonization by 2050. This is the dominant geopolitical message of 2021, appearing, for example, in U.S. President Joe Biden’s online summit with world leaders in April 2021 and in the new IEA Report on Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Africa will be part of this global trend. Prospective oil and gas projects in Africa will no longer be pursued as overseas markets and financing will shrink. At the same time, Africa’s vast renewable energy potential, in the solar and hydropower sectors especially, will engage increasingly bankable and highly attractive investments. In net terms, Africa has a huge amount to gain from a decisive build-up of renewable energy and the capacity to produce the minerals, hardware, and software of the new zero-carbon energy economy. Starting from a simple and transparent model of the annual investment volumes needed to provide continent-wide access to electricity based on renewable sources (Section 2), the report addresses various imperatives and challenges regarding Africa’s energy planning (Section 3) and financing (Section 4) and outlines recommendations for immediate implementation of the strategy from 2022 (Section 5).
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa

57. New Producer Contract Terms and Uncertainty: Lessons From the Recent Past

Author:
Patrick Heller, Perrine Toledano, Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, and David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The petroleum industry is volatile, and governments in “new producer” countries have operated at a significant information disadvantage when negotiating with international oil companies. This challenge is growing today; new producer countries face intensifying questions around whether to offer fiscal incentives to maintain investment in the face of 1) the pandemic-induced volatility in oil prices and 2) long-term questions about the future of the industry in the face of the climate crisis and the global energy transition. This confluence of short-term and long-term uncertainty is prompting a reexamination of the narrative that once took hold in many new producer countries. The traditional story was one of linear progression from being non-producers to small levels of production to ultimately having oil and gas become a major economic contributor over the long term. This notion of progression was associated with a commonly held theory: After a country’s first major discovery, the geological risk that wells will be dry was expected to decrease. Countries could therefore shift from a position of having to grant tax breaks (and other concessions) to international investors, to taking a tougher stance in laws and negotiations for new projects going forward. In this paper we examine whether this theory has been borne out in practice and make recommendations to support new producers in their navigation of the uncertainty associated with the energy transition. Among the eight “new producer” countries, for which we analyzed a total of 26 contracts signed before and 25 contracts signed after discovery events (all occurring between 2001 and 2014), the evidence is mixed. Only three of the eight countries in our sample—Ghana, Mozambique and Uganda—demonstrated a clear pattern in the direction of more stringent terms in post-discovery contracts. They featured definitive steps to increase some of the obligations of contractors to the state, and no significant terms that became less stringent. Five out of eight countries did not meaningfully alter their approach to gain greater concessions from their company partners.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Governance, Gas, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, and Ghana

58. Democracy in the Middle East & North Africa

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are growing increasingly concerned about the potential problems associated with a democratic political system. Over the last decade, but particularly within the last five years, there has been a dramatic increase in the degree to which the region’s citizens believe democracies are bad for economic performance, stability, and decisiveness. In some countries, the degree to which concern about these potential problems has increased is especially dramatic. For example, Tunisians and Iraqis are now nearly 50 points more likely to say that democracy has some of these limitations than they were just a decade ago. Ultimately, citizens across MENA seek solutions to major problems in their lives. These include but are not limited to stagnant economies, high unemployment rates, rising cost of living, and, in some countries, internal instability. Until recently, many appeared to believe that democracy was a system that could solve such challenges. Over the last 75 years, democracies have tended to be wealthier, more politically stable, less corrupt, and more efficient at meeting the basic needs of citizens than authoritarian alternatives.1 In recent years, however, many non-democratic systems may appear more attractive, including the Chinese system that has led to rapid economic growth over the last 40 years. In this new global environment, many in MENA appear uncertain if democracy can effectively deliver solutions to their country’s problems.2 Moreover, looking at the experience of MENA countries over the last decade, it is perhaps not surprising that the region’s citizens have increasing doubts about the benefits of democracy. Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are the countries across the region where elections have been the most meaningful over the past decade, with each having experienced a change in government based on results at the ballot box. Yet, their collective experience clearly demonstrates that democracy has not been a panacea for their respective challenges. Tunisia’s GDP per capita is now lower than it was in 2011, Lebanon has faced financial collapse, and Iraq suffered significant internal instability
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

59. Food Insecurity and its Discontents in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Salma Al-Shami
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Food insecurity plagues majorities of citizens in six out of 10 countries surveyed as part of Arab Barometer’s seventh wave (2021-2022). Majorities from 53 percent in Libya to 68 percent in Egypt report that they ran out of food before they had money to buy more. And in nine out of 10 countries, more than half of all citizens express concern about running out of food before being able to get more. These findings reiterate a long-standing and often observed quagmire in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): the high proportion of food insecure citizens in middle income countries with otherwise medium or high levels of human development is staggering. Beyond affirming this quagmire, Arab Barometer’s newest data show that looking at region through the lens of food insecurity and its web of discontents emphasizes seven key challenges facing MENA: “Democracy fatigue” is highest among the food insecure, though they still prefer democracy to its alternatives. Gender gaps in reports of food insecurity reiterate the consequences of extreme gender imbalances in labor force participation. Urban-rural cleavages in food insecurity are a reminder that food scarcity can be higher in rural areas on account of decreased access to credit, reliance on import substitution strategies, shrinking agricultural lands, and climate change. Despite the documented effects of the latter on food availability, food insecure citizens are less likely to want government intervention to address climate challenges. Differences between food secure and insecure citizens on evaluations of the economy are more muted than expected, perhaps because broadly defined economic challenges loom heavily on all. Still, those suffering from food insecurity express a higher desire to emigrate. And finally, food insecurity has devastating effects on present and future outlooks, with food insecure citizens—particularly youth—less likely to say both that their lives are better than their parents’ and their children’s lives will be better than their own.
Topic:
Security, Children, Food Security, and Food Safety
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

60. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA

Author:
Mary Clare Roche
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Gender equality is far from achieved in MENA. Clear majorities in most countries surveyed hold that women should not play equal roles to men in both public and private spheres. Yet, there are also signs of change. In the past decade and a half of Arab Barometer surveys, public opinion across the Middle East and North Africa has trended towards gender equality. This is not only a result of younger generations with more liberal ideas of social norms becoming older, but an actual shift in perceptions across generations. In particular, agreement with the statements that “men are better at political leadership than women” and “university education is more important for men than women” has dropped sharply across many countries Arab Barometer has surveyed. The survey always examines perceptions of violence against women. There is a widespread perception that violence against women has been increasing in the region. This is in line with the World Bank’s assessment that gender-based violence has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in MENA.1 However, the gap between men and women’s perceptions of violence is significant, with women being far more likely to say the level of violence has increased. In order to appropriately address the issue of gender-based violence, conversations need to be facilitated across genders. Another challenge for women in MENA relates to employment opportunities. Labor force participation rates for women are the lowest of any region in the world.2 However, results from Arab Barometer make it clear that most citizens perceive structural barriers to have a greater impact than cultural barriers, meaning governments could more readily develop policies to address these challenges.
Topic:
Civil Society, Culture, Public Opinion, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

61. Sahel: 10 Years of Instability. Local, Regional and International Dynamics

Author:
Giovanni Carbone and Camillo Casola
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Ten years after the start of the Malian crisis, political and security instability in the Sahel have changed in scale and nature, and spilled over across national frontiers. The border region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger has become the new epicentre of insecurity. The comeback of military actors on the political scene, and the support provided by large parts of the population to post-coup military juntas is evidence of poor governance and a severe deterioration in the legitimacy of elected authorities. In this complex scenario, the initiatives of external partners affect regional balances, making the Sahel a major theatre for power competition. How did the crisis evolve over the past decade? What are the main drivers behind local, regional and international dynamics? What prospects for regional stability?
Topic:
Security, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Borders, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

62. Conflict in the Penta-Border Area: Benin’s Northern Jihad from the perspective of its neighbours

Author:
Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Since December 2021, Benin has suffered an increasing number of armed conflicts linked to violent extremist groups. The Beninese government publicly acknowledges that there have been around 20 violent events in the period between December 2021 and May 2022. This report records 43 discrete violent events involving Violent Extremist Organisations (VEOs) from December 2021 to September 2022 (92 when including non-violent activities). This report makes an uncommon point: that violence in Benin presently comes from its neighbours and not from within. Developments in Burkina Faso, Niger, Togo and even Nigeria generate the problems in Alibori and Atactora (the Northern Provinces of Benin), for now. This report explores the activity of four main groups and the rational for expansion. A JNIM group under the command of Mouslimou, the Emir of the East, in Kompienga; a JNIM group in Tapoa (Burkina Faso); a JNIM group in Torodi (Niger) under the command of Emir of Torodi, Abu Anifa; and finally the Islamic State of the Greater Sahel (ISGS)."
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Conflict, Borders, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Benin

63. The Periphery Cannot Hold: Upper Nile since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule. In Upper Nile, Kiir's regime has successfully peeled off Eastern Nuer commanders once loyal to Riek Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). Following a brutal dry season campaign against the SPLA-IO waged by these commanders, Machar's opposition suffered an almost total collapse of support in Upper Nile. The rump of the SPLA-IO fighting forces had already split from Machar in 2021, and formed the Kitgwang faction, which hoped to acquire materiel and money in Khartoum to fund a renewed war. However, thanks to a regional realignment that means Sudan and South Sudan are allies, the Kitgwang found no succour in Khartoum, and was easily divided by Kiir's regime. The current fighting in Upper Nile is the fallout from the two parts of the Kitgwang being set against each other by the government. Clashes have displaced more than 10,000 people, and taken on a worryingly ethnic dimension that Kiir's regime will struggle to control.
Topic:
Politics, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Upper Nile

64. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war. Such clashes are often dismissed as 'inter-communal violence' delinked from the politics of the peace agreement. 'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS—a report from the Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—demonstrates that the conflict raging in Warrap is instead deeply political, and a consequence of the way that Kiir's regime maintains power by setting feuding elites against each other. In Warrap, the South Sudanese state has suffered an almost total collapse in political legitimacy, and cattle-guards have emerged as the only actors on the ground with genuine community support that can resist the predatory state, even if they are also instrumentalized by it. 'And Everything Became War' is the first in-depth study of conflict dynamics in Warrap state since the beginning of the South Sudanese civil war. Based on extensive fieldwork, the report makes one central conclusion: as South Sudan enters its fourth year of ‘peace’, everything has become war, and the South Sudanese government is the war’s cause rather than the solution.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

65. Political and Media Analysis on the Tigray Conflict in Ethiopia

Author:
Moses Tofa, Alagaw Ababu Kifle, and Hubert Kinkoh
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
This study reviews patterns of domestic and international media reporting and the role of disinformation, misinformation, and media bias in the Tigray conflict, which has been raging since November 2020. Since its outbreak, the conflict has evolved through four broad phases. Throughout these phases, the conflict was characterised by egregious violations of international human rights law, international humanitarian law and international refugee law. To analyse the role of the media in the conflict, this study reviewed local and international media, conducted interviews with local and international journalists and analysts, and consulted secondary literature. Patterns of reporting by international and local media exhibited fairly significant levels of divergence in the issues that were selected for reporting and how they were reported during these four phases of the conflict. The study found significant levels of disinformation, misinformation, and biased reporting that clouded accounts of the conflict and encouraged debates over highly contested issues. International media largely disregarded the role that the TPLF played in provoking the federal government to take military action, at times neglecting to mention the TPLF attack on the Ethiopian Northern Command and occasionally even accusing Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy of ordering a wanton attack on Tigray. International journalists either partially or completely ignored the historical context of the conflict. On the other hand, domestic Ethiopian media largely disregarded the violations that were committed by the federal government and were overly focussed on debunking the claims that were made by the TPLF. Overall, the study found a systematic pattern of local media biased towards the narrative of the federal government, whereas the international media were generally biased towards the narrative of the TPLF. As a result, the voice of the people who suffered the brunt of the fighting became the “casualty” of misinformation, disinformation and biased reporting.
Topic:
Human Rights, Politics, Media, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

66. 2021 Resource Governance Index

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Decisions about how the oil, gas and mining sectors are governed determine the wellbeing of the billion people living in poverty in resource-rich countries. Where policies and practices ensure informed, inclusive and accountable decision making, natural resources can enable fair, prosperous and sustainable societies, rather than undermine them. The climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and dramatic changes in global energy markets have increased the stakes of good governance. Complex decisions about how to enable the political and economic adaptations necessary for a managed phaseout of fossil fuels and responsible increase in production of transition minerals sit at the heart of this dual crisis. Governance of the oil, gas and mining sectors will play a central role in the transition away from fossil fuels and the return to progress against poverty. The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) produces the Resource Governance Index (RGI) as a diagnostic tool to measure the governance of oil, gas, and mining sectors in select countries and to highlight opportunities for policy and practice reforms at the global, regional and country levels. The 2021 RGI assesses the governance of extractive sectors in 18 countries, including both established mineral and hydrocarbon producers, as well as new and prospective entrants to natural resource production.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Mongolia, Colombia, South America, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Mexico, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, Peru, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, and Democratic Republic of Congo

67. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

68. Leaving Behind the Worst of the Past: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Sierra Leone

Author:
Ibrahim Bangura
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
From 1991 to 2002, Sierra Leone experienced a destructive civil war that fomented widespread violence and abuse. To address both the causes and consequences of the war, the country implemented criminal prosecution, a truth commission, a limited reparations program, institutional reforms, and local reconciliation practices. Nearly two decades after the end of the war, the country has avoided the recurrence of violent conflict, made substantial socioeconomic progress, and improved its democratic governance. This study analyzes how transitional justice in Sierra Leone has contributed to prevention through accountability and redress measures that addressed the grievances of those who were harmed by human rights violations and reduced the exclusion associated with the violence. Institutional and other reforms also helped to address the causes of the past violence and catalyze long-term change. At the same time, however, these contributions were limited in terms of reach and implementation. Despite these achievements, many of the civil war’s root causes—including poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and a lack of agency among and recognition of ordinary people—remain unaddressed, and many of its consequences unredressed. The marginalization of young people, a key factor in the onset of the war, continues to be a societal problem. At the political level, ethno-regional-based approaches have deepened divisions and ethnic tension and increased the risk of instability. While transitional justice has helped Sierra Leone to avoid the recurrence of the worst of its recent past, a more comprehensive approach to sustainable peace and development is needed to address the historical legacies of the conflict and meet the current challenges. This approach will demand enormous political engagement, willpower, and resources, as well as community-based mobilization. It will also require following through on transitional justice processes, such as fully implementing the truth commission’s recommendations, and a range of additional political, social, and economic measures.
Topic:
Reform, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Engagement, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

69. A Transitional Justice Approach to Foreign Fighters

Author:
Cristian Correa
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This research study examines the value of a transitional justice approach to the issue of foreign fighters in violent conflict. A transitional justice approach addresses the massive and serious human rights violations that are committed in conflicts involving significant numbers of people who traveled from another state to participate in them. Such an approach is based on the shared responsibility of states to meet their obligations derived from international human rights law and international humanitarian law. It is one that can help to center human rights considerations in responses to foreign fighters, thereby shifting the focus from security and punishment to justice and prevention. Transitional justice can help to develop a more comprehensive and coordinated set of responses to gross violations that account for the roles and responsibilities of a range of actors. In addition to providing justice to victims, transitional justice can help prevent the recurrence of the violence and abuse in which foreign fighters are often involved. A transitional justice approach includes interventions that promote accountability, truth, reparation, rehabilitation, reintegration, memory, and reform. These measures can be implemented in countries of origin and countries in or emerging from conflict. A transitional justice approach to requires dealing not just with foreign fighters themselves but with all of the abuses committed as part of the broader conflict or violence. The challenges that such an approach faces include the phenomenon’s transnational dynamic and the association of foreign fighters with contexts of terrorism and violent extremism. The report makes specific recommendations to countries of origin, countries in conflict, and the international community.
Topic:
Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Engagement, Foreign Fighters, and Gender
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Balkans, Syria, and Asia-Pacific

70. Measuring Results and Monitoring Progress of Transitional Justice Processes

Author:
Mateo Porciuncula
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Transitional justice processes are complex, politically contested, and not necessarily linear. Because of this, they present unique theoretical and practical challenges for measuring results, which include challenges for gathering data, registering unintended outcomes, reporting progress, providing feedback to interventions, and extracting useful information to establish impact or counterfactuals. Based on a desk research and a series of discussions with practitioners, policymakers, and academics, this report considers the following: The different roles monitoring and evaluation systems can play and the questions they can answer at different stages of a transitional justice process. This report recommends conducting assessments early on to inform design and to build feedback loops into ongoing processes. Key features of transitional justice processes, including their complexity, their political nature, and the difficult contexts where they are usually implemented. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and designing monitoring and evaluation approaches that allow for capturing rich contextual data and unexpected results. Power dynamics, exclusion, and language, particularly in fragile contexts and when dealing with vulnerable populations. Monitoring and evaluation approaches that are conflict sensitive, victim centered, and participatory. The Sustainable Development Agenda as a framework for measuring results of transitional justice. While a politically legitimate and useful conceptual framework, there is room for improvement as current indicators are not best suited to contexts where a large proportion of the population has experienced human right abuses. Overall, stakeholders in transitional justice should take a “user-centered” approach to measuring progress and results, one that puts the people that a process is meant to serve at the center. In doing so, they can focus on collecting what matters, establishing feedback loops, and learning from and continually improving their interventions.
Topic:
Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Gender, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America

71. ‘A Drop of Water on a Hot Stone:’ Justice for Victims in the Central African Republic

Author:
Rim El Gantri and Arnaud Yaliki
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
The Central African Republic (CAR) has endured six decades of violent conflict, which has fractured the country and weakened the state’s ability to provide not only justice but also basic services. Victims of human rights violations, especially those outside the capital Bangui, often belong to profoundly marginalized communities. Their victimhood is thus aggravated by daily struggles of exclusion, inequality, and the absence of alternatives. This research report examines the notion of justice and its feasibility from the perspective of a victim-centered approach in a context of profound fragility and extreme poverty. The first section of the report gives an overview of the contextual challenges to providing justice to victims, including the ongoing violent conflict and widespread human rights violations, polarization, lack of inclusion, social norms, and the exclusion of young people from decision-making processes. These obstacles, which deepen the justice gap, are generally not taken into consideration when designing justice measures and initiatives. The second section describes existing justice initiatives and those currently being established in CAR, including judicial and non-judicial mechanisms and those administered by national and international bodies. However, high operating costs, dysfunction, corruption, and centralization of services in the capital severely tend to limit the ability of these initiatives to deliver justice to victims. The third section discusses victims’ demands and aspirations for justice based on their experiences and priorities. It sheds light on the need for meaningful participation of victims, members of marginalized communities, and civil society representatives, among others, in justice initiatives in order to ensure their legitimacy and facilitate their implementation. Garnering such broad participation requires engaging, unifying, and impactful communication and outreach strategies. The report concludes with a set of conclusions and recommendations that acknowledge the challenges in providing justice to victims in a fragile context like CAR and highlight innovative transitional justice strategies in which victims are the cornerstone.
Topic:
Reform, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Engagement, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Central African Republic

72. Transitional Justice and Prevention: Summary Findings from Five Country Case Studies

Author:
Roger Duthie
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This report summarizes the findings of an ICTJ research project exploring the role that transitional justice can play in preventing both massive and serious violations of human rights as well as violence and violent conflict more broadly. Its conclusions are drawn from case studies of five countries—Colombia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone—representing a range of complex contexts in which societies are grappling with violent conflicts, repressive governments, or acute inequality. It argues that transitional justice should be an integral element of conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and sustainable development. The report contends that transitional justice can contribute to prevention by: (1) addressing the exclusion and other harms that victims experience due to human rights violations they suffered; (2) addressing the exclusion and related injustices that communities and social groups face as a result of targeted violations and structural marginalization; (3) strengthening the rule of law and making it more inclusive; and (4) catalyzing the reform of institutions and laws that have perpetuated violence and discrimination as a means to exclude marginalized groups. The report also identifies a number of limitations to the preventive impact of transitional justice, including: (1) tensions that can exist between justice and prevention initiatives, especially in the short term; (2) justice processes that may be seen to be insufficiently participatory or even exclusionary themselves; (3) a lack of implementation of measures and reforms that are designed or recommended; and (4) contextual factors such political dynamics, security concerns, and the absence of broader structural change. The report concludes that applying a prevention lens to transitional justice does not fundamentally change how the field is understood, but it does have broad policy implications. First, fostering inclusion should be a primary objective of both the outcomes and the design of transitional justice mechanisms. Second, assessing the preventive role of transitional justice requires a long-term approach to inclusion and reform as these involve changes to social relationships, institutions, and structures. Third, prevention requires a society to confront both the root causes and consequences of injustice, and transitional justice processes can contribute greatly in this regard. However, they alone are not enough.
Topic:
Reform, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Peru, and Oceania

73. Preventing and addressing violent extremism A conceptual framework

Author:
Maja Halilovic Pastuovic, Gillian Wylie, Karin Göldner-Ebenthal, Johanna-Maria Hulzer, and Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
This paper represents the theoretical framework behind the PAVE project that aims to tackle the issue of radicalisation by examining its root causes and driving factors. The project is based on a comparative assessment of local communities' vulnerability or resilience to violent extremism in seven countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Kosovo, Lebanon, North Macedonia, Serbia and Tunisia.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Violence, Local, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Kosovo, Serbia, Lebanon, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia

74. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

75. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahara

76. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

77. Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Inequality, and Insurrection
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

78. Tanzania’s 2020 Election: Return of the One-Party State

Author:
Michaela Collord
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Beginning with early voting in Zanzibar on October 27, 2020, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, had won a landslide. After significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule. Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham. Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions: What explains the election results? And what are the implications for Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015. The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

79. Great Britain and Africa: Boris Johnson's Strategic Reversals

Author:
François Gaulme
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In 2020-2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson undertook to fundamentally change the operational mode and strategy of relations between the United Kingdom and the African continent bequeathed by his predecessors since 1997. Great Britain and Africa : Boris Johnson's Strategic Reversals He first put an end to the autonomy and power of the great Department for International Development (DfID), by merging it with the Foreign Office. Deciding to make the granting of aid political, he also reduced its amount on the grounds of the recession hitting the country but against British legislation itself. His strategy for external deployment, adopted in March 2021 and based primarily on an “Indo-Pacific tilt”, has marginalised the relationship with Africa to which Theresa May had wanted to give new impetus in the perspective of the Brexit in 2018. While taking up her concept of “Global Britain”, her successor now seems to want to limit ties with Africa to business relations, highly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, as well as minimal participation in security efforts on the continent. This note analyses such reversals in a historical perspective of the end of a relational cycle. It concludes that Boris Johnson’s very personal policy towards Africa is too reductive not to be amended. In particular on aid and fundamental rights, it neglects the complexity of British positions towards this continent. By reaffirming the strength of the strategic relationship with the United States, it will also have to adapt to the new African policy of the Biden administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Foreign Aid, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, and Europe

80. Priorities for US-Africa commercial policy in the Biden Administration

Author:
Aubrey Hruby
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With a renewed focus on multilateralism, President Joe Biden, in his first one hundred days, has actively been reengaging with traditional US allies and partners repeatedly sidelined by the Trump administration. African countries have been included in this effort. When addressing the African Union Summit of African presidents in February, he reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to partnering with African nations to address challenges including climate change and erosion of democratic institutions. Biden has gained widespread praise for supporting the appointment of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the first African head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), nominating officials who have deep experience in African markets to Cabinet positions, such as Linda Thomas-Greenfield as ambassador to the United Nations, and putting together a historically diverse government, including many senior members of the African diaspora. Building on this early progress, Biden has an opportunity to reset US-Africa policy by not only prioritizing it at a level unseen during the last four years, but also changing the long history of siloing Africa policy. The Biden administration should look to further integrate African nations into broader US foreign policy, acknowledging Africa’s increasing importance to US priorities and enhanced standing on the global stage. Doing so will allow the new administration to deepen commercial and people-to-people ties with African nations, benefiting US businesses, furthering US interests, and working to address global challenges, such as public health and climate change. This more multifaceted and nuanced engagement with African states will set a foundation for stronger US-Africa partnerships, support mutual economic growth, and contribute to strengthening US global leadership. While cooperation with African states is critical to regional stability and global security, this issue brief sets aside security policy and focuses on ways the Biden administration can strengthen its commercial policy and public diplomacy with African nations. This effort includes building on commercial policies started under the Trump administration, facilitating green growth, and deepening people-to-people ties. In doing so, Biden’s domestic priorities of promoting diversity and climate responsibility will be reflected in Africa policy and ensure US businesses can take advantage of increasing opportunity in African markets and remain competitive globally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economy, Business, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

81. The Impact of the Situation in Afghanistan on Military Missions in Africa

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Taliban victory in Afghanistan was enthusiastically received by some armed Al-Qaida-affiliated jihadist groups in Africa with whom they share a sense of fighting for a common cause. Countries participating in international military operations in Somalia and the Sahel are limiting their involvement because of the growing political cost. In the case of Somalia, the risk of Islamists seizing power has increased. In Mali, the likelihood of the extremists’ participation in ruling the country has grown. To prevent a repeat of the Afghanistan scenario, EU states and the U.S. will modify their military engagement.
Topic:
Taliban, Violent Extremism, Al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, Mali, and Sahel

82. Europe and Africa. The Long Search for Common Ground

Author:
Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Ayear and a half after the new Strategy with Africa proposed by the European Commission was made public, the new partnership between the two continents is still being defined. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic with Africa’s first economic recession in 25 years and a sharp rise in poverty and debt has created new challenges for the two continents’ agenda, highlighting new gaps to address on the way forward. With the European Union-African Union summit scheduled for February 2022, the definition of the new partnership is once again gathering momentum, while both sides are still trying to define common positions. Will these two “natural partners” be able to tackle the most urgent challenges and turn them into opportunities for collaboration and engagement? What are the priority issues, and which ones are potentially most divisive?
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, African Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

83. Supporting Small Arms and Light Weapons Controls through Development Assistance: The Case of sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Lucile Robin
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) has had a negative impact on conflict, security and development. In order to help states to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the proliferation of these weapons, some states as well as regional and international organizations have established a series of funding instruments and assistance programmes that support or provide SALW control-related assistance. In view of the recognized linkages between SALW proliferation, security and development, official development assistance (ODA) has progressively become an eligible source of funding in this field. However, there remains limited clarity on which assistance activities have been supported through development spending. A comprehensive assessment of the use of ODA to support SALW control-related assistance could help donors, policymakers and interested stakeholders to understand how assistance policies have adjusted to the recognition of the link between conventional arms control and sustainable development made in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Focusing on SALW control-related assistance provided in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study and comparing information included in separate data sets compiled by SIPRI and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, this report attempts to provide information on which relevant activities have been supported through ODA in this region. It shows that only a limited number of donors have used ODA to support SALW control-related assistance and that they have different practices in the way they report on the use of these funds. It also outlines the challenges that make mapping this assistance a particularly difficult exercise.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

84. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

85. Toward a Viable Future for South Sudan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten years after independence, South Sudan is faring poorly, beleaguered by political and socio-economic ills. The civil war’s two main antagonists have an uneasy peace, but others fight on. The country needs a reset rooted in power sharing and devolution of authority from the centre.
Topic:
Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Leadership, State Building, Independence, and Power
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

86. Ending Nigeria’s Herder-Farmer Crisis: The Livestock Reform Plan

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria’s latest plan for curbing herder-farmer conflict is facing obstacles, including staff and funding shortages as well as political opposition. If this initiative fails, there could be more rural violence. Abuja should work with donors to raise both money and awareness of the scheme’s benefits.
Topic:
Conflict, Violence, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

87. Libya Turns the Page

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Libyan politicians have moved with salutary speed in 2021 to reunify their divided country. With UN help, the new government should hasten to clear two last hurdles: establishing a legal framework for elections and clarity about who holds supreme command of the armed forces.
Topic:
International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, Elections, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, North Africa, and MENA

88. Stemming the Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Deadly conflict in Mozambique’s ruby- and natural gas-rich northernmost coastal province feeds on a mix of colonial-era tensions, inequality and Islamist militancy. To tame the insurrection, Maputo needs to use force, with bespoke assistance from outside partners, and to carefully address underlying grievances.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Insurrection
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

89. Oil or Nothing: Dealing with South Sudan’s Bleeding Finances

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Upon South Sudan’s independence in 2011, many hoped the country’s oil wealth would help build the state and lift citizens out of poverty. Instead, politicians have shunted these revenues toward patronage and personal enrichment, feeding internal conflict. Transparency and accountability are badly needed.
Topic:
Oil, Poverty, Natural Resources, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

90. Relaunching Negotiations over Western Sahara

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The fighting in Western Sahara, which broke out again in November 2020, remains of low intensity. Yet outside powers would be wrong to assume that it will not escalate. With U.S. support, the new UN envoy should pursue confidence-building measures that could facilitate negotiations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa

91. Mali: Enabling Dialogue with the Jihadist Coalition JNIM

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Authorities in Mali seem to be considering negotiations with Jamaat Nusratul Islam wal-Muslimin, the country’s largest Islamist insurgency. Pursuing talks will be a tall order, given the stakes and the group’s al-Qaeda connection. Both the government and the militants should begin with incremental steps.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Terrorism, Conflict, Violence, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

92. Low Covid-19 Cases In Africa. What Explains This?

Author:
Wilfred Ngwa, Dr. Asahngwa Constantine, Denis Foretia, Gobina Ronald, Charlotte Bongfen, Odette Kibu, and Nkengafac Fobellah
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Since the first case of COVID 19 was made known worldwide in December 2019, the world as of November 10, 2020 had recorded over 51 million cases and over 1.2 million deaths [1]. The African continent as of the same date had recorded the lowest number of cases when compared the other continents of the world, with close to 2 million cases and over 45 thousand deaths [1]. Africa is therefore seen to contribute to about 3.7% of the global caseload and to about 3.6% of the global death roll [1,2,3]. Although some few countries in Africa such as South Africa, Morocco and Egypt are witnessing a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, a drastic decline in the number of cases was observed in the months of July, August and September 2020 [4,5]. According to preliminary analysis by the African branch of the World Health Organization, Africans may be twice as likely to experience COVID-19 without any illness, compared with people in the rest of the world [6]. The trend of COVID 19 cases observed in Africa contrasts with several other parts of the world. Just the Unites States of America alone (as of November 10, 2020) had close the 6 times the number of cases and deaths recorded in the entire African continent [1]. This bulletin therefore seeks to explore possible reasons for the low number of COVID 19 cases and deaths observed in Africa when compared to other continents of the world.
Topic:
Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

93. Building And Strengthening Public Trust In Government Policy Decisions And Institutions To Effectively Tackle Covid-19 In Cameroon

Author:
Dr. Asahngwa Constantine, Denis Foretia, Gobina Ronald, Wilfred Ngwa, Charlotte Bongfen, Odette Kibu, and Nkengafac Fobellah
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In Cameroon the battle against COVID-19 is far from over as the disease still continue to claim many lives and aggravates the deepening poverty situation of Cameroonians. According to reports from the Ministry of Health (as from 8th of December, 2020), Cameroon has recorded 24,752 infected cases, 23,344 recoveries and 433 deaths. [1] The economic consequences of the disease remain preoccupying as many people have experienced a decline in their businesses. The government of Cameroon through the Prime Minister published a national response plan which aimed at combating the disease, highlighting preventive measures and effective management of confirmed positive cases. Some of these measures include the prohibition of mass gatherings above 50 persons, maintaining physical distancing, wearing of face mask in public places, frequent handwashing with soap or using hand sanitizers and isolation of infected persons. [2] These measures and others are currently being implemented since March, 2020. Although the government has been doing its best to bring this pandemic to an end, this has not been without challenges. One of the challenges is the decline of public trust in government’s policy decisions and institutions, which if not given sufficient attention may compromise all the efforts and resources already galvanize for this battle against COVID-19.[3] Drawing from published literature, we discuss the factors responsible for the decline of public trust, how the lack of trust can hamper interventions and control efforts and some suggestions how this challenge can be tackled to enhance effective interventions to combat COVID-19 in Cameroon.
Topic:
Government, Health, Institutions, Public Sector, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

94. Impact Of Covid-19 On The Continuum Of Care

Author:
Wilfred Ngwa, Nkengafac Fobellah, Dr. Asahngwa Constantine, Mbuwir Charlotte, Kibu Odette, Gobina Ronald, and Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (widely referred to as COVID-19), caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in Wuhan (Hubei province) China in December 2019. By January 30, 2020, WHO Director General declared that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) [1]. The virus has since December 2019, spread to all the 7 continents of the world. The highest concentration of infected persons has shifted several times since mid-February 2020 from China to Iran, and then to Italy and Spain and is presently in the United States of America, India and Latin America and [3]. According to The Lancet, it is inevitable that Africa will be experiencing the next wave of infections [4]. Africa as of November 2nd, 2020, had registered more than 1.8 million cases and over 43 thousand deaths, thus contributing to about 3.9% of the global caseload and to about 3.6% of the global death roll [5].
Topic:
Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

95. Cameroon: Almost 97% Of Household Have Problems In Food Crop Production

Author:
Sundjo Fabien
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Agriculture is critical to achieving global poverty reduction target and it is the single most important sector in most low-income countries, as concern its share in the Gross Domestic Product and equally in terms of number of people it employs (World Bank, 2009). According to the World Bank report (2007), agricultural development is one of the most powerful tools to end extreme poverty, boost shared property and feed a projected 9.7 billion people by 2050. In addition, the same report holds that growth in agricultural sector is two to four times more effective in raising income amongst the poorest as compared to other sectors. This has made agriculture to remain a core activity in the developing economies. It is believed that, over the past decades, hunger and malnutrition persist in many countries because of slow agricultural productivity (WFP, 2018). The expected increase in agricultural demand associated with population growth requires a continuous increase in the investment in agricultural activities be it at the national or individual levels. Goal two of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which is emphasized in the Millennium development Goals (MDGs) aims at eliminating hunger to zero level by 2030. But unfortunately, hunger and malnutrition remain a barrier of development in developing countries. In this light identifying factors that can hamper agricultural production is remarkably important. The objective of this write-up is therefore to investigate the challenges faced by farmers in order to implement informed decision to boost productivity in the food crop farming sector in Cameroon.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Millennium Development Goals, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Development, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

96. Barriers To Formalization Of Businesses In Cameroon: High Tax Rates

Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Clearly expressed in its National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30), Cameroon’s desire for the coming decade is to achieve sustainable growth driven by the manufacturing industry. Thus, the government hopes to increase (i) manufacturing value-added from 14.5% in 2017 to 25% in 2030 and (ii) the share of manufacturing exports to 54.5%. However, in the absence of an efficient industrial sector, the economy tends to specialize in the “end of the chain” activities, including extraction (mining and oil) and subsistence agriculture on the one hand and trade and services on the other. According to the Third Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector conducted by Cameroon’s National Institute of Statistics in 2018, nearly 90% of the Cameroonian labor force remains trapped in the informal sector. The sector comprises a set of individual companies – generally nonagricultural – that operate on a small scale and are not registered with the competent authorities. Many entrepreneurs choose to operate informally because of barriers to formalization. For example, businesses spend an average of 624 hours to make 44 payments per year to the tax authorities. The total tax rate remains one of the highest in Central Africa, at 57.7% of business profits than 47.1% in Gabon (World Bank, 2020).
Topic:
Labor Issues, Business, Tax Systems, Economic Development, Sustainability, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

97. Should We Consider A Post-Covid-19 Reform Of The VAT In Cameroon?

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic so far has had a profound impact on the global economy. The containment measures adopted by governments to curb the spread of the disease have curtailed business activities, making it impossible for companies to adequately meet their tax obligations. As a result, forecasts for customs revenues and internal tax resources have been revised downward, mainly due to the closure of borders. Collected both at the borders and within the country, Value Added Taxes revenues have naturally been very negatively affected by the crisis. In Cameroon, losses related to value added tax in 2020 were estimated at CFAF 298.017 billion, representing 50.73 percent of recorded tax losses, which is hardly surprising. Value-added taxes are identified as the main source of tax revenue in Cameroon. They were estimated at 44.73% of tax revenue in 2019 and about 7% more than in 2016. The importance of VAT in tax revenue mobilization requires an examination of the Cameroonian tax system, particularly the factors that could explain a reform of the tax. Moreover, given that Cameroon is at high risk of external debt distress (IMF, 2018), there is an urgent need to find new ways to ensure the continued sustainability of public finances. This Tax Policy Letter analyzes the rationale for VAT reform in Cameroon. First, we present the severity of the economic repercussions of the coronavirus health crisis at the level of VAT revenues in Cameroon. Noting that VAT is the main source of indirect tax revenue – 60.19% in 2019 compared to 54.54% in 2016, for example – we then examine the guiding principles that govern its collection and application in Cameroon. A careful examination of these principles has allowed us to analyze the benefits associated with a reform of this tax on final consumption.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

98. The Declaration and Payment of Taxes in Cameroon: A Critical Appraisal

Author:
Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu, Ulrich D’POLA KAMDEM, and Dinga Tambi
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Nkafu Policy Institute is delighted to share with you the results of a report that critically appraises the declaration and payment of taxes in Cameroon. Indeed, since 2004 the Doing Business Index (DBI) of the World Bank has been ranking national economies based on their performance in several domains. One of these domains includes the “paying taxes” indicator. It records taxes and mandatory contributions that medium-size companies must pay in a given year and equally measures the administrative burden of paying taxes and contributions and complying with post-filing procedures. Therefore, the weight of the tax burden remains a decisive element in the attractiveness of an economy as it encourages or dissuades national and foreign investors, widens or reduces the tax base, stimulates or refrains entrepreneurship. During the 2009 and 2016 General Census of Enterprises by the National Institute of Statistics, the following key question was asked to top management personnel: “What are the most important obstacles to entrepreneurship in Cameroon?” Taxation was cited as the first major obstacle regardless of cities, according to National Institute of Statistics reports.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, World Bank, Regulation, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

99. Institutionalized (In)Security: Exploring The Mens Region's Governance Crises

Author:
Andrea Cellino and Eleanore Ardemagni
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
After a decade of popular uprisings and civil wars, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is experiencing a deep governance crisis. The transformation, weakening or even the collapse of state institutions has changed the security framework, with direct implications for processes of Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSG/R). This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and DCAF, explores multiple governance crises in the MENA region, providing case studies on Libya, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen. How can we effectively bring about meaningful SSG/R in hybrid security orders? In which way is “institutionalised insecurity” challenging traditional patterns of governance in vulnerable settings?
Topic:
Security, Governance, Reform, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

100. FOCAC at 21: Future Trajectories of China-Africa Relations

Author:
Chris Alden, Stephen Paduano, Mzukisi Qobo, Lukas Fiala, Iginio Gagliardone, Yu-Shan Wu, Gidon Gautel, and Lina Benabdallah
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The China-Africa relationship has continued to evolve over the last years. In light of the 8th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) that will take place later in 2021, the latest report from LSE IDEAS China Foresight brings together an international team of experts to shed light on emerging and consolidated areas of engagement between China and Africa that will likely shape the relationship in the years to come.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and China