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1552. Afghanistan: Conflict & Crisis
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- Many of the underlying causes and drivers of instability and conflict in Afghanistan have existed for a long time and have been well recorded in IEP indices and registers, and these causes and drivers had shown exacerbation recently, making instability and conflict more likely. There is a long history of resource degradation leading to conflict and conflict further degrading the resources – a vicious cycle. Our analysis is that these underlying causes and drivers of instability are likely to continue to frustrate efforts for peace and federalised governance in Afghanistan into the future with the Taliban likely to struggle with its own challenges to peace. For the United States and its coalition partners, recent events in Afghanistan may be the closing of a chapter, but for the people of Afghanistan this is part of a continuum of conflict and crisis that will likely continue.
- Topic:
- Governance, Taliban, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
1553. Ecological Threat Report 2021
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the second edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which analyses 178 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the report covers over 2,500 subnational administrative units or 99.9 per cent of the world's population. It assesses threats relating to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters. These assessments are then combined with national measures of socioeconomic resilience to determine which countries have the most severe threats and lowest coping capabilities. These are the countries most likely to suffer from increased levels of ecological-threat related conflict. The report also looks at the future, with projections out to 2050.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Water, Food, Conflict, Population Growth, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1554. China Maritime Report No. 17: The PLA Army's New Helicopters: An "Easy Button" for Crossing the Taiwan Strait?
- Author:
- Tom Fox
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This report examines the potential roles and missions of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) new rotary wing capabilities in a cross-strait invasion. Looking specifically at the helicopter units of the PLA Army (PLAA), it discusses two possible scenarios in which these forces could serve as the main thrust in a campaign to seize control of Taiwan. In the first scenario, the PLAA would use nearly all of its rotary wing inventory simultaneously to overwhelm Taiwan’s defenses and quickly convince the country’s political leadership to surrender. In a second “unconventional” scenario, the PLAA would risk the destruction of older helicopters in order to launch a sudden attack against the island, thereby achieving the element of surprise while saving its most capable platforms for lengthy follow-on operations to fully subdue the island. Based on analysis of the scale, complexity, and frequency of recent PLAA exercises, this report argues that China is at best a decade away from having the ability to seize Taiwan by either approach.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Air Force, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
1555. China Maritime Report No. 16: Chinese Ferry Tales: The PLA's Use of Civilian Shipping in Support of Over-the-Shore Logistics
- Author:
- J. Michael Dahm
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has long provided indications it will use civilian shipping in direct support of a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. To date, however, there has been little effort to gauge the PLA’s actual ability to leverage China’s commercial fleet in the most challenging part of any such campaign—operations over-the-shore. Drawing from ship tracking data, satellite imagery, media reporting, and the writings of PLA experts, this report analyzes recent military-civil fusion exercises and training to assess current capabilities.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Civilians, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
1556. China Maritime Report No. 15: The New Chinese Marine Corps: A "Strategic Dagger" in a Cross-Strait Invasion
- Author:
- Conor Kennedy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy Marine Corps (PLANMC) has undergone significant expansion, growing from two brigades to eight. The major impetus behind these efforts is a desire to build the service arm into an expeditionary force capable of operating in most environments at short notice. However, PLANMC reform has also bolstered its ability to contribute to major campaigns along China’s periphery, including a Taiwan invasion scenario. This report examines the PLANMC’s role in a cross-strait amphibious campaign and analyzes how new additions to the force could be used against Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Navy, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
1557. China Maritime Report No. 14: Chinese Views of the Military Balance in the Western Pacific
- Author:
- Eric Heginbotham
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This report examines Chinese views about the military balance of power between China and the United States in the Western Pacific. It argues that while there is no single “Chinese” view on this topic, Chinese analysts tend to agree that 1) the gap between the two militaries has narrowed significantly in recent years, 2) the Chinese military still lags in important ways, and 3) Chinese military inferiority vis-à-vis the U.S. increases the further away it operates from the Mainland. In terms of specific areas of relative strength, the Chinese military has shown the greatest improvements in military hardware, but has farther to go in the area of jointness, training, and other military “software.” Nevertheless, despite continued criticism from senior civilian leaders, training quality has likely improved due to a greater focus on realism, and recent military reforms have, to a degree, improved the prospects for jointness.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Reform, Strategic Competition, Military, and Competitive Balance
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
1558. China Maritime Report No. 13: The Origins of "Near Seas Defense and Far Seas Protection"
- Author:
- Jennifer Rice and Erik Robb
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- This report traces the origins and development of China’s current naval strategy: “Near Seas Defense and Far Seas Protection.” Near Seas Defense is a regional, defensive concept concerned with ensuring China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. Its primary focus is preparing to fight and win informatized local wars within the first island chain. Far Seas Protection has both peacetime and wartime elements. In peacetime, the Chinese navy is expected to conduct a range of “non-war military operations” such as participating in international peacekeeping, providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, evacuating Chinese citizens from danger, and engaging in joint exercises and naval diplomacy. In wartime, the PLAN could be tasked with securing China’s use of strategic sea lanes and striking important nodes and high-value targets in the enemy’s strategic depth. Nears Seas Defense and Far Seas Protection is rooted in the ideas of Alfred Thayer Mahan and Mao Zedong.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Navy, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1559. China Maritime Report No. 12: Sansha City in China's South China Sea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control
- Author:
- Zoe Haver
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- China established Sansha City in 2012 to administer the bulk of its territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea. Sansha is headquartered on Woody Island. The city’s jurisdiction includes the Paracel Islands, Zhongsha Islands, and Spratly Islands and most of the waters within China’s “ninedash line.” Sansha is responsible for exercising administrative control, implementing military-civil fusion, and carrying out the day-to-day work of rights defense, stability maintenance, environmental protection, and resource development. Since 2012, each level of the Chinese party-state system has worked to develop Sansha, improving the city’s physical infrastructure and transportation, communications, corporate ecosystem, party-state institutions, and rights defense system. In effect, the city’s development has produced a system of normalized administrative control. This system ultimately allows China to govern contested areas of the South China Sea as if they were Chinese territory.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Communications, Territorial Disputes, Infrastructure, Maritime, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South China Sea
1560. EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future
- Author:
- Peter Václavík
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Our intern Peter Václavík wrote a report on enhancing the relationship between the EU and Japan, which were discussed in the debate EU – Japan Strategic dialogue: climate change cooperation as a pathway to the future.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, and Asia
1561. 2021 Resource Governance Index
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Decisions about how the oil, gas and mining sectors are governed determine the wellbeing of the billion people living in poverty in resource-rich countries. Where policies and practices ensure informed, inclusive and accountable decision making, natural resources can enable fair, prosperous and sustainable societies, rather than undermine them. The climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and dramatic changes in global energy markets have increased the stakes of good governance. Complex decisions about how to enable the political and economic adaptations necessary for a managed phaseout of fossil fuels and responsible increase in production of transition minerals sit at the heart of this dual crisis. Governance of the oil, gas and mining sectors will play a central role in the transition away from fossil fuels and the return to progress against poverty. The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) produces the Resource Governance Index (RGI) as a diagnostic tool to measure the governance of oil, gas, and mining sectors in select countries and to highlight opportunities for policy and practice reforms at the global, regional and country levels. The 2021 RGI assesses the governance of extractive sectors in 18 countries, including both established mineral and hydrocarbon producers, as well as new and prospective entrants to natural resource production.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, Sustainability, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Mongolia, Colombia, South America, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Mexico, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, Peru, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, and Democratic Republic of Congo
1562. Small States, Different Approaches: Estonia and Norway on the UN Security Council
- Author:
- Kristin M. Haugevik, Piret Kuusik, Kristi Raik, and Niels Nagelhus Schia
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- In 2021, Estonia and Norway served as elected members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Both being relatively small states, defending multilateral cooperation and rules-based international order were important common goals. In the last decade, great power tensions have returned to the Security Council, and multilateralism has again come under pressure. The opportunities of elected members to substantially influence the UNSC agenda are arguably limited by power struggles, complex subject matter and inefficient working methods. In spite of these limitations, both Estonia and Norway achieved some important outcomes as members of the Security Council. Their experiences confirm above all the value of diplomatic experience and reputation-building for elected members. To some extent, the two states have also been able to assume ownership of matters on the UNSC agenda. As in any diplomatic setting, knowing how to “play the game” is key to the ability of small states to punch above their weight. Specific methods through which elected members work to influence the UNSC agenda include coalition-building, actively using the presidency function, organising special events, and assuming the penholder role in a specific country or thematic issue. Common priority areas of Estonia and Norway in the UNSC include conflict resolution and peacebuilding, protection of human rights and especially women’s rights, and addressing new security challenges in the fields of cyber and climate. The most significant experience of cooperation during 2021 was the Estonian-Norwegian joint penholdership of the Afghanistan file which brought the two countries to the centre stage of global diplomacy and reinforced their international profile as small states that make an active and professional contribution to multilateral cooperation. Looking at Estonia’s and Norway’s performance in 2021, some interesting differences can be identified. First, the two states assess the relative importance of the UN differently. In Norway’s foreign policy, there is a strong tradition of prioritising the UN and seeing an active role in multilateral cooperation as an important contribution to national interests and security. By contrast, for Estonia, the UN has not been a foreign policy priority in the past, and its contribution to national security continues to be seen as secondary to membership in Western organisations, notably NATO and the EU. Furthermore, Norway has generally worked a bit more behind the scenes, relying on its long experience and reputation as a constructive contributor to peace diplomacy. It has been active on issues such as the UNSC’s normative protection agenda and climate security, but also the Afghanistan, Syria and North Korea files. Meanwhile, Estonia has taken a rather bold approach as a newcomer visibly promoting its priorities, most notably the cybersecurity agenda. It has also focused on controversial issues of regional security, including the situations in Ukraine and Belarus, trying to use the UN to the advantage of national security through promoting its positions and strengthening coalitions with like-minded countries. Coordination between like-minded states is an integral part of the work of the Council. With Estonia and Norway both present, 2021 saw two Nordic-Baltic states concurrently represented in the Council for the first time. In the future, there may be scope for further strengthening Nordic-Baltic cooperation in the framework of the UN structures.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Cybersecurity, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Norway, Estonia, and Baltic States
1563. Strategic Connectivity in the Black Sea: A Focus on Georgia
- Author:
- Batu Kutelia and Vasil Sikharulidze
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This report argues that the government of Georgia needs to reshuffle its priorities in advancing its strategic connectivity in three major areas: democratic statecraft, economic modernization, and geopolitical identity. By prioritizing these three areas, Georgia can secure a better place as a major hub for transportation and logistics. Taking concrete actions and reforms will secure sustainable economic growth if Tbilisi reinforces its strategic partnerships. The wider Black Sea region has become a strategically important area because it connects Europe to the Eurasian landmass and allows the development of multidimensional and multimodal linkages related to energy, infrastructure, logistics, cyber, military, environment, and migration. This report provides policy recommendations on transportation, logistics, and critical infrastructure supporting proactive approaches for risk management and increasing resilience. The recommendations include innovative public-private cooperation for introducing modern technological and financial solutions. Other recommendations include a Western strategy to push back on Russian aggression and to strengthen security and stability.
- Topic:
- Partnerships, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Modernization, Connectivity, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Georgia, and Black Sea
1564. Make Foreign Policy Feminist. A Feminist Foreign Policy Manifesto for Germany
- Author:
- Nina Bernarding, Kristina Lunz, Sheena Anderson, Antonia Baskakov, Damjan Denkovski, Annika Kreitlow, and Anna Provan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
- Abstract:
- This manifesto intends to encourage and support those inside the next government to begin the process of systematically changing how Germany’s foreign policy operates, whom it is made for, and whom it is informed by. It introduces what a Feminist Foreign Policy would look like for Germany, including a proposed definition of a German Feminist Foreign Policy. We analyse existing German Federal Foreign Policy and outline principles of a German Feminist Foreign Policy and its priority areas, presenting action items (recommendations) for a radically different way of conducting foreign policy. Among many other topics, we address climate justice, demilitarisation, health, trade and peace & security.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Health, Feminism, Peace, Trade, Climate Justice, and Demilitarization
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
1565. Central Banks at the Frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: Weathering the Storm, Spurring the Recovery. A View from the Mediterranean Countries
- Author:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- On 28 June 2021, the Banco de España, the Central Bank of Tunisia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), organised the VI Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks. After the success of the last five Conferences held in Barcelona (2014, 2017), Rabat (2015), Tunis (2018) and Madrid (2019), this sixth edition counted with the first-ever participation of 10 Central Banks from the Mediterranean region, which were represented by their Governors, and the presence of high-level representatives of the European Central Bank. With the aim to foster a comprehensive dialogue on the economic and financial situation of the Mediterranean region, this VI Conference allowed organisers and participants to take a very important step forward in the ambition to strengthen cooperation ties and enhance knowledge-sharing among partner Mediterranean central banks, which is of outmost importance especially in times of crisis.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Finance, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Mediterranean
1566. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report
- Author:
- Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Fund for Peace
- Abstract:
- The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America
1567. Economic Cracks in the Great Wall of China: Is China's Current Economic Model Sustainable?
- Author:
- Thomas J. Duesterberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Since Deng Xiaoping changed the trajectory of Chinese economic policy in 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has amassed an impressive record of economic growth. Many economists and political analysts, however, have come to question whether the top-down, mercantilist economic system in the PRC is sustainable in the medium to long term. This report explores the long-term structural and short-term economic problems in contemporary China, and in particular considers whether the Xi Jinping regime can avoid a financial crisis and effectively manage a transition to a stable new equilibrium. Structural issues include a looming downturn in the population and in the workforce; associated problems with an underdeveloped and underfinanced social safety and welfare net; income and regional inequality; environmental degradation; and domestic shortages of raw materials, agricultural production, and energy resources. The acute economic problems analyzed in the paper are a real estate bubble, the accumulation of dangerous levels of debt, dependence on external markets and financing, a difficult transition to a more consumer-oriented and less investment-driven economy, a crackdown on dynamic digital and financial sectors, a return to dominance of low-productivity state-owned enterprises and manufacturing firms, and weak governance from an increasingly authoritarian and unaccountable regime. Many of these acute issues result from Xi’s changes in policy since 2013. Xi’s turn toward greater economic self-reliance while maintaining mercantilist trade relations signals an effective decoupling from the US and allied economies. Some historical examples of bubble economies and financial crises are discussed as possible analogies to the current situation in China. One conclusion is that the Middle Kingdom will see a much slower-growing economy, which makes addressing the structural issues much more difficult. Inability or lack of determination to address the large array of issues may also undermine the political legitimacy of the current regime, which has been buttressed since 1978 by a rapid growth model based on debt, real estate, and investment, including infrastructure. The concluding section of this report offers policy tools that the United States and its allies could deploy to induce China to be a more responsible stakeholder in the world economy and a more reliable contributor to global sustainability. The tools considered in the study include trade policy and export controls, expanded oversight of foreign investment (both direct and portfolio investment), cooperation with allies on China policy, and defense-related sanctions. The paper also suggests that deployment of these tools could be a factor in weakening China’s economy as well as a means to convince its leadership to pursue less mercantilist and authoritarian global strategies, which are harmful to the US economy and to global stability.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1568. Risking Apocalypse? Quantum Computers and the US Power Grid
- Author:
- Arthur Herman and Alexander Butler
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Millions without power; stores and banks shut down; vital services running on emergency generators, if at all; lines of hapless people awaiting food and water. The experience that the state of Texas underwent during February 2021 is only a preview of what we would all face should the United States’ ever-vulnerable energy grid be subject to a major cyberattack. For years, experts have been warning us of the national power grid’s vulnerability to attacks by such malicious actors as Russia, China, and Iran. A major task force within the US Department of Energy—the North American Energy Resiliency Model (NAERM)—has been tasked with determining how best to protect our energy grid from damage caused by not only natural disasters but also terrorism and cyber assaults. NAERM’s purview, however, encompasses only existing, conventional cyber threats and does not extend to quantum computer attacks, whose effects would be far more protracted and far worse than those of a conventional cyberattack. Indeed, the “smarter” a grid is, that is, the greater the extent to which it relies on computer supervision and control, the more vulnerable it would be to such an attack. The shutdown resulting from an attack by a future quantum computer, with its unprecedented power to easily decrypt existing encryption systems, could be the most catastrophic disaster our country has ever experienced. Using data supplied by global econometrics firm Oxford Economics, researchers at Hudson Institute’s Quantum Alliance Initiative are conducting a quantitative study designed to model the impact of a hypothetical future quantum cyberattack on the US power grid, and preliminary results indicate that protection of our power networks needs to be an urgent national priority. The study’s preliminary results offer important clues as to the areas on which policymakers should focus, not only to secure our power and energy grid from a large-scale quantum computer attack but also, in the event this were to be unsuccessful, to mitigate such an attack’s impact on our infrastructure, both in terms of economic and national security. As Hudson Institute founder Herman Kahn wrote in his 1962 book Thinking About the Unthinkable, “Even the most utopian of today’s visionaries will have to concede that the mere existence of modern technology involves a risk to civilization that would have been unthinkable twenty-five years ago.” Today, we must once again consider the unthinkable, not the nuclear apocalypse that haunted Kahn and his generation in the 1950s and 1960s but a quantum apocalypse that, if not as physically and permanently destructive as a nuclear attack, could cause catastrophic harm to our economy and society unless proper steps are taken now to mitigate such an attack’s attendant risk.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
1569. The Diminishing Path to Growth: Can Xi Jinping Avoid Crisis during China's Economic Transition
- Author:
- Thomas J. Duesterberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Since Deng Xiaoping changed the trajectory of Chinese economic policy in 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has amassed an impressive record of economic growth. Starting as a poverty-stricken agricultural society under rigid socialist rule, the country has grown steadily and rapidly to become the second largest economy in the world and carved out a growth path whose strength and longevity is historically unprecedented. As the 21st century has unfolded, the PRC has become a near peer competitor to the United States and other developed countries in terms of economic and political power. It is deploying this power in multiple ways that explicitly challenge US leadership in both the economic and global political spheres. If the PRC manages to maintain recent growth rates of around 6 percent per year, it will soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy and enhance its ability to challenge the global US leadership position, which has been a pillar of stability since World War II. The US and its allies had hoped that the PRC would become a responsible stakeholder in a liberal international order, but these hopes have been undermined in recent years by China’s increasingly apparent mercantilist economic policies, its aggressive expansion of political power, the resurgent dominance of state-owned enterprises, and the ever-more evident suppression of political liberties and traditional cultures in its sphere of influence. Many economists and political analysts, however, have come to question whether the top-down, mercantilist economic system in the PRC is sustainable in the medium to long term. A number of trends suggest weaknesses in the traditional economic and political structures that have propelled growth in China: growing private and public sector debt, adversely shifting demography, the return to prioritizing state-run enterprises over private firms, the continued reliance on an export-oriented economic system, growing weaknesses in the financial system, dependence on external commodity and technology suppliers, persistent economic and geographic inequality, and continued reliance on external financing. Recent economic data show that bankruptcies are growing, returns on investment are shrinking, and capital controls are contributing to unrealistic valuations of internal capital stock and housing stock. Additionally, regulations are stifling innovative sectors of the economy, and opaque and unregulated consumer financing products are undermining central bank monetary policy and contributing to over-leveraged balance sheets among consumers and small businesses. Consumer purchasing power that is consistently too weak to absorb domestic production, along with incentives to increase that production, has resulted in sustained trade surpluses that create a closed loop of increased investment in manufacturing and the need for growing markets. More recently, US-led efforts to deny China access to certain high-technology products and materials have underscored Chinese vulnerabilities in key sectors like telecommunications and semiconductors. This dynamic results in trade tensions with developing countries and in economically questionable investment in the developing world. These tensions, along with the undermining of developing world markets through subsidized PRC production, are increasingly causing costly disruptions in trade flows and placing pressure on the state banking system, which is the source of most external financing. If the mounting problems with the current Chinese economic model result in material slowing of growth or even sustained recession in the PRC, this would have substantial impact on the United States and its allies in two important ways. First, given that the PRC is the second largest (or in some measures the largest) economy in the world and has been an engine of growth for economies in Europe and the rest of Asia, slower growth or recession in China would likely lead to a global slowdown or recession. Second, because growth has immense political salience in the PRC—it justifies the authoritarian system of governance—a significant slowdown or recession could lead to political instability. Given Chinese nationalist rhetoric and revanchist ambitions toward Taiwan, political instability could in turn motivate risky military activities that escalate into confrontations with democratic, market-oriented countries. From the perspective of the United States, a slowdown could exacerbate the already serious trade and economic tensions, especially if nationalist forces in China sought to cast the US as the scapegoat for its internal problems. In sum, a better understanding of the weaknesses within the PRC growth model and its potential frailties would allow policymakers to craft targeted tools when needed to support US policy objectives, either economic or political, and to deter PRC aggression or the undermining of US economic interests. Policy tools such as trade tariffs, export controls, and limitations on direct investments and access to US financial markets could have material impact on Chinese performance. A more robust understanding of the impact of these tools would help the United States and its allies craft overall strategies to meet the Chinese economic and political challenge. Even while operating in a time frame longer than twelve months, many financial analysts have begun to describe the unfolding economic challenges in the PRC. The general public, including political opinion leaders and government analysts, have not generally understood the extent of the danger of economic crisis in China. Instead, the common assumption is that growth in the PRC, albeit a continuing economic threat to the US economy, is not in danger of faltering. This white paper takes a different view, exploring the structural weaknesses characterizing the current Chinese economic model and the recent policy changes initiated by President Xi Jinping. Its working assumption is that the combination of these two factors will result in a material weakening of the dynamic growth China has enjoyed since Deng Xiaoping set his country on a more Western-style growth path in the late 1970s. At a minimum, various factors will slow growth to levels more characteristic of modern developed economies; and at the extreme these factors may possibly lead to negative growth and weakening of the political strength that underpins the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Economic Growth, and Xi Jinping
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
1570. EU regions with legislative powers: Exploring the appetite, capacity and direction for EU policy influencing and delivery
- Author:
- Alison Hunter, Perle Petit, and Marialena Pantazi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- How can EU regions with legislative powers amplify their presence through the RLEG initiative and play a stronger role in EU decion-making? Made up of 16 regions with legislative powers, the RLEG initiative aims to contribute to and improve the functioning of EU multilevel governance systems. The joint initiative also aims to bring citizens closer to the EU, such that a stronger ‘line of sight’ is generated between them and the EU’s multilevel governance system. This requires that the role of regions with legislative powers is better acknowledged by key partners. However, that recognition is not currently present, which directly impacts the role RLEG can play in EU decision-making. This report recommends that RLEG improves the positioning of their agenda for greater coherence and visibility so as to foster improved dialogue with decision-makers.
- Topic:
- European Union, Legislation, Autonomy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Spain, and Basque Country
1571. Arms Control and Strategic Stability with Russia: The View from Europe
- Author:
- Jon B. Wolfsthal and Andrea Kendall-Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- The United States and its NATO partners have successfully managed the challenge of deterrence and reassurance for generations. The risk of conflict, even nuclear conflict, with Russia remains all too real, especially as political and military competition continues to escalate, and as new technologies and capabilities come online that could further raise the risk of direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. Ensuring clear, consistent, and constructive communication among officials and experts within the transatlantic security community about the potential dangers posed by Russian behavior, and how to effectively pursue greater stability together, will be essential if the alliance is to remain successful in the decades to come. The following assessment is informed by conversations among such experts committed to that goal. The memo identifies European allies and partners’ views, interests, and concerns about America’s emerging dialogue with Russia on arms control and strategic stability. It is intended to inform U.S. approaches to alliance management and consultation with European allies as well as potential talks and negotiations with the Russian Federation. Although the expert discussions occurred before Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border resumed in October 2021, the insights the working group produced remain relevant so long as the U.S.-Russia arms control and strategic stability dialogue persists.
- Topic:
- NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Strategic Stability, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
1572. Monitoring Online Political Advertising: A Toolkit
- Author:
- Barbara Jouan Stonestreet and Michael Baldassaro
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- During an electoral process, electoral actors, whether contestants or noncontestants, have the right to advertise political ideas in accordance with the right of expression. However, political advertising may be subject to reasonable limitations through regulations imposed by domestic law, including who can run political advertisements, when and where they may run advertisements, restrictions on advertising expenditure levels, and reporting and disclosure requirements to ensure transparency, accountability, and a level playing field. Increasingly, election contestants and noncontestants are using social media platforms to advertise political ideas.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Internet, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1573. Brexit and Beyond: the union
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Tensions about the relationships between the UK’s component parts have never been too far from the surface during the political crisis triggered by Brexit. The question of what happens to powers that were formerly exercised at the EU level, but which fall within devolved competence, has been a recurrent source of disagreement between the UK Government and the devolved administrations. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and the union.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1574. Brexit and Beyond: politics
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- How politics in the UK develops over the coming months and years will depend at least in part on the degree to which its focus moves on from Brexit. This mini report on politics taken from our Brexit and Beyond report makes clear, politics will be about far more than inter party competition.
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1575. Brexit and Beyond: policy
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and policy looking at a wide range of policy areas including immigration, social care, cyber security and manufacturing.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, Cybersecurity, Brexit, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1576. Brexit and Beyond: public opinion
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon public opinion, from the growing division between British voters and the lasting importance of Remain and Leave identities, to the increasing salience of social values, Scotland’s appetite for independence, and the fluctuating importance of immigration to the British electorate.
- Topic:
- Politics, Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, Domestic Politics, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1577. Brexit and Beyond: economy
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its consequences for the economy, from its impact upon inequality, employment, and public finances, to future prospects for British trade outside of the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Brexit, Trade, and Public Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1578. Freeports
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Freeports will be the centrepiece of the Budget, presented as a concrete sign, especially to ‘left behind’ communities, both of the benefits of Brexit and the Government’s commitment to the ‘levelling up’ agenda. For those looking to create ‘Global Britain’, freeports send out a message: we’re open for business. In this report, Deputy Director Professor Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University examines both the rationale for them and the existing evidence on them. The report concludes that freeports are unlikely to be a magic bullet.
- Topic:
- Budget, European Union, Business, Brexit, and Freeports
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1579. Brexit and Beyond: government, law and external relations
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. This mini report is for those who want to dig deep on Brexit and its impact upon British governance and the constitutional makeup of the UK, and what Britain’s place in the world is set to look like outside of the European Union. This mini report is taken from the Brexit and Beyond report.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Governance, Law, European Union, Constitution, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1580. Whitehall in Brussels: the UK permanent representation to the EU
- Author:
- Matthew Bevington
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK has left the European Union but the two sides, as neighbours, partners and competitors, will need to continue to work with each other. How this happens matters. The report author, Matt Bevington, looks at how the UK interacted with the EU in the past, and what role the UK mission might play in those interactions going forward.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Brexit, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1581. Comfortable leavers: the expectations and hopes of the overlooked Brexit voters
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This briefing paper draws on workshops conducted by NatCen in summer 2020 with a group of voters we have labelled ‘Comfortable Leavers’. Often overlooked, in favour of narratives that have emphasised the role of the ‘left behind,’ we thought it important to understand what this sizeable part of the Leave vote thought about Brexit and hoped for the future of the country.
- Topic:
- Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, Voting, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1582. The EU Settlement Scheme
- Author:
- Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) allows EU nationals who arrived by 31 December 2020 (and some others) to protect their rights to live and work in the UK. The aim of this report is to explain the scheme, its background, how it works, who has applied, who may not have, and the lessons we have learned so far.
- Topic:
- Border Control, European Union, Citizenship, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1583. EU-UK 2030
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Five years on from the EU referendum, we are still attempting to learn lessons and digest those we have learnt. In this country, the vast majority of attention has, unsurprisingly, focused on developments here – in parliament, in our constitutional settlement, and in the country as a whole. But how did the EU and its member states approach the Brexit process? What were their priorities in the lengthy negotiations? How did they view the UK, and what are their priorities for their relationship with it in the years ahead?
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Brexit, Negotiation, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1584. Global Britain: views from abroad
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- ‘Global Britain’ is the term used to denote the UK’s approach to the world post-Brexit. The success of ‘Global Britain’ depends not simply on the energy and resources devoted to it by the UK Government but also on the participation of potential partners. To consider what these reactions might be, UK in a Changing Europe and the School of Security Studies at King’s College London consider perceptions of Global Britain across different states around the world in this new report.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1585. Covid or Brexit?
- Author:
- Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, Alan Wager, Sarah Overton, and Joël Reland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The world is emerging from the COVID pandemic, with society and the economy opening up again. The immediate impact has been widespread supply and labour shortages, and rising inflation. But for the UK, the issue is not simply that of post-pandemic disruption, but also the early impacts of the decision to leave the European Union, replacing our membership of the Single Market and customs union with a minimal free trade deal. In what follows, we explore the extent to which current problems in the UK economy are down solely to post pandemic disruption or also the result of the altered terms of trade and labour mobility with the EU.
- Topic:
- Politics, Labor Issues, European Union, Brexit, Trade, COVID-19, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1586. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. It forms the first of a series of trackers which will keep tabs on the latest developments in the regulatory divergence landscape.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Brexit, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1587. What do MPs think? expectations, issues and identities
- Author:
- Alan Wager and Paula Surridge
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- This briefing, authored by Dr Alan Wager, sets out where the House of Commons stands on key public policy issues facing the country and its expectations for the future. Drawing on a representative survey of Members of Parliament undertaken by Ipsos MORI between June and August 2021, it provides a pen portrait of opinion within the corridors of Westminster.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Brexit, Survey, Society, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1588. The impact of Brexit on UK services
- Author:
- Sarah Hall and Martin Heneghan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The service sector stands as a clear exemplar of the trade-offs entailed by Brexit. The emphasis placed by the government on reclaiming regulatory autonomy during the negotiations over the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), and the particular importance of ending freedom of movement had particularly serious consequences for those who import or export services. In this report, Sarah Hall, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe and Martin Heneghan, Research Fellow at the University of Nottingham explore the consequences to date of Brexit, and particularly of the TCA, for service providers.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, Services, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1589. UK-EU regulatory divergence tracker: second edition
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- UK in a Changing Europe’s regulatory divergence tracker provides an overview of where and how the UK has used its newfound regulatory freedoms to diverge from EU standards. It identifies and analyses the most significant cases of divergence in regulatory standards between the UK and EU which have taken place since Brexit. It explains what the changes are, what impact they are having, and likely further consequences. This is the second edition of the tracker, covering changes which took place predominantly between September-December 2021.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1590. Alive in the Demand for Change: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Peru
- Author:
- Julie Guillerot
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- From 1980 to 2000, Peru experienced both a violent internal violent conflict and political authoritarianism. In the two decades since, the country has implemented a wide range of transitional justice processes, including elements of truth, criminal justice, reparations, and institutional reforms directed at guaranteeing nonrecurrence. This study reflects on the preventive impact of those processes. It pays specific attention to the factors that facilitated the conflict and help explains its differentiated impact on victims and affected communities. The Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CVR) revealed significant and longstanding socioeconomic, geographic, and educational divisions within Peruvian society that both caused the political violence and were reinforced by it. It painted a picture of victims as socially and economically excluded and placed the political violence within the context of almost two hundred years of domination, marginalization, and oppression of members of the Andean and native populations. In order to mend these human rights violations and social fractures, the CVR recommended truth, justice, reparations, and guarantees of nonrecurrence. The study contends that there is a before and after the CVR. Policies that contribute to preventing the recurrence of widespread political violence and abuses have been developed that would not have been possible without the existence of the CVR. There are also signs that the CVR’s narrative has penetrated a broader stratum of the population and political class, and that transitional justice has had a positive impact on society’s internal and external control of institutions. The broader democratic transition in Peru, however, never truly attempted to create a pluralist society based on a new social pact that included all Peruvians in the benefits and obligations of citizenship. In the absence of broader cultural or attitudinal institutional transformations, advances linked to transitional justice ultimately depend on the benevolent will of government officials and on persistent advocacy from victims’ groups and human rights organizations. The process of change remains unfinished.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
1591. Disrupting Cycles of Discontent: Transitional Justice and Prevention in the Philippines
- Author:
- Robert Francis B. Garcia
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- The end of authoritarianism in the Philippines in 1986 was an important opportunity to pursue transitional justice and effect societal transformation. This report examines how reparations, legal and institutional reforms, and truth telling about historical injustice and marginalization have contributed to prevention. But it also reveals how the limited and delayed nature of these efforts fits within a broader failure of society to address the root causes and legacies of the past. This, in turn, allows the risk of recurrence to persist. The study examines how the Philippines has responded to the repression and corruption under former president Ferdinand Marcos as well as armed conflicts that persist today. Reparations, for example, have contributed to the recognition and inclusion of victims of human rights violations by addressing grievances, providing redress, and increasing awareness of rights. In the Bangsamoro region, a truth commission addressed issues such as land dispossession, marginalization, and discrimination and made concrete recommendations for change. It is reasonable to argue that transitional justice in the Philippines has played a role in preventing the recurrence of the most serious and widespread human rights violations associated with Marcos. But many of its measures were not implemented at the opportune time and were not sufficient to either fully address the legacies of the past or to maximize their contributions to prevention. The lack of accountability for crimes committed under Marcos and the limited accountability in the decades since have perpetuated a culture of impunity. Post-dictatorship reforms have achieved much in way of reestablishing the democratic order but have not removed a corrupt system that can be traced back to colonial times. Limited structural change and economic policy have failed to address inequality. The persistence of rampant human rights violations since 1986 and the country’s recent swing back to authoritarianism are arguably at least partially the result of society’s failure to learn the lessons of the past.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Philippines, and Oceania
1592. Leaving Behind the Worst of the Past: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Sierra Leone
- Author:
- Ibrahim Bangura
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- From 1991 to 2002, Sierra Leone experienced a destructive civil war that fomented widespread violence and abuse. To address both the causes and consequences of the war, the country implemented criminal prosecution, a truth commission, a limited reparations program, institutional reforms, and local reconciliation practices. Nearly two decades after the end of the war, the country has avoided the recurrence of violent conflict, made substantial socioeconomic progress, and improved its democratic governance. This study analyzes how transitional justice in Sierra Leone has contributed to prevention through accountability and redress measures that addressed the grievances of those who were harmed by human rights violations and reduced the exclusion associated with the violence. Institutional and other reforms also helped to address the causes of the past violence and catalyze long-term change. At the same time, however, these contributions were limited in terms of reach and implementation. Despite these achievements, many of the civil war’s root causes—including poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and a lack of agency among and recognition of ordinary people—remain unaddressed, and many of its consequences unredressed. The marginalization of young people, a key factor in the onset of the war, continues to be a societal problem. At the political level, ethno-regional-based approaches have deepened divisions and ethnic tension and increased the risk of instability. While transitional justice has helped Sierra Leone to avoid the recurrence of the worst of its recent past, a more comprehensive approach to sustainable peace and development is needed to address the historical legacies of the conflict and meet the current challenges. This approach will demand enormous political engagement, willpower, and resources, as well as community-based mobilization. It will also require following through on transitional justice processes, such as fully implementing the truth commission’s recommendations, and a range of additional political, social, and economic measures.
- Topic:
- Reform, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Engagement, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sierra Leone
1593. A Transitional Justice Approach to Foreign Fighters
- Author:
- Cristian Correa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- This research study examines the value of a transitional justice approach to the issue of foreign fighters in violent conflict. A transitional justice approach addresses the massive and serious human rights violations that are committed in conflicts involving significant numbers of people who traveled from another state to participate in them. Such an approach is based on the shared responsibility of states to meet their obligations derived from international human rights law and international humanitarian law. It is one that can help to center human rights considerations in responses to foreign fighters, thereby shifting the focus from security and punishment to justice and prevention. Transitional justice can help to develop a more comprehensive and coordinated set of responses to gross violations that account for the roles and responsibilities of a range of actors. In addition to providing justice to victims, transitional justice can help prevent the recurrence of the violence and abuse in which foreign fighters are often involved. A transitional justice approach includes interventions that promote accountability, truth, reparation, rehabilitation, reintegration, memory, and reform. These measures can be implemented in countries of origin and countries in or emerging from conflict. A transitional justice approach to requires dealing not just with foreign fighters themselves but with all of the abuses committed as part of the broader conflict or violence. The challenges that such an approach faces include the phenomenon’s transnational dynamic and the association of foreign fighters with contexts of terrorism and violent extremism. The report makes specific recommendations to countries of origin, countries in conflict, and the international community.
- Topic:
- Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Engagement, Foreign Fighters, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Balkans, Syria, and Asia-Pacific
1594. Measuring Results and Monitoring Progress of Transitional Justice Processes
- Author:
- Mateo Porciuncula
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- Transitional justice processes are complex, politically contested, and not necessarily linear. Because of this, they present unique theoretical and practical challenges for measuring results, which include challenges for gathering data, registering unintended outcomes, reporting progress, providing feedback to interventions, and extracting useful information to establish impact or counterfactuals. Based on a desk research and a series of discussions with practitioners, policymakers, and academics, this report considers the following: The different roles monitoring and evaluation systems can play and the questions they can answer at different stages of a transitional justice process. This report recommends conducting assessments early on to inform design and to build feedback loops into ongoing processes. Key features of transitional justice processes, including their complexity, their political nature, and the difficult contexts where they are usually implemented. Combining qualitative and quantitative methods and designing monitoring and evaluation approaches that allow for capturing rich contextual data and unexpected results. Power dynamics, exclusion, and language, particularly in fragile contexts and when dealing with vulnerable populations. Monitoring and evaluation approaches that are conflict sensitive, victim centered, and participatory. The Sustainable Development Agenda as a framework for measuring results of transitional justice. While a politically legitimate and useful conceptual framework, there is room for improvement as current indicators are not best suited to contexts where a large proportion of the population has experienced human right abuses. Overall, stakeholders in transitional justice should take a “user-centered” approach to measuring progress and results, one that puts the people that a process is meant to serve at the center. In doing so, they can focus on collecting what matters, establishing feedback loops, and learning from and continually improving their interventions.
- Topic:
- Reform, Transitional Justice, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Gender, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America
1595. ‘A Drop of Water on a Hot Stone:’ Justice for Victims in the Central African Republic
- Author:
- Rim El Gantri and Arnaud Yaliki
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- The Central African Republic (CAR) has endured six decades of violent conflict, which has fractured the country and weakened the state’s ability to provide not only justice but also basic services. Victims of human rights violations, especially those outside the capital Bangui, often belong to profoundly marginalized communities. Their victimhood is thus aggravated by daily struggles of exclusion, inequality, and the absence of alternatives. This research report examines the notion of justice and its feasibility from the perspective of a victim-centered approach in a context of profound fragility and extreme poverty. The first section of the report gives an overview of the contextual challenges to providing justice to victims, including the ongoing violent conflict and widespread human rights violations, polarization, lack of inclusion, social norms, and the exclusion of young people from decision-making processes. These obstacles, which deepen the justice gap, are generally not taken into consideration when designing justice measures and initiatives. The second section describes existing justice initiatives and those currently being established in CAR, including judicial and non-judicial mechanisms and those administered by national and international bodies. However, high operating costs, dysfunction, corruption, and centralization of services in the capital severely tend to limit the ability of these initiatives to deliver justice to victims. The third section discusses victims’ demands and aspirations for justice based on their experiences and priorities. It sheds light on the need for meaningful participation of victims, members of marginalized communities, and civil society representatives, among others, in justice initiatives in order to ensure their legitimacy and facilitate their implementation. Garnering such broad participation requires engaging, unifying, and impactful communication and outreach strategies. The report concludes with a set of conclusions and recommendations that acknowledge the challenges in providing justice to victims in a fragile context like CAR and highlight innovative transitional justice strategies in which victims are the cornerstone.
- Topic:
- Reform, Youth, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Engagement, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Central African Republic
1596. Transitional Justice and Prevention: Summary Findings from Five Country Case Studies
- Author:
- Roger Duthie
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- This report summarizes the findings of an ICTJ research project exploring the role that transitional justice can play in preventing both massive and serious violations of human rights as well as violence and violent conflict more broadly. Its conclusions are drawn from case studies of five countries—Colombia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone—representing a range of complex contexts in which societies are grappling with violent conflicts, repressive governments, or acute inequality. It argues that transitional justice should be an integral element of conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and sustainable development. The report contends that transitional justice can contribute to prevention by: (1) addressing the exclusion and other harms that victims experience due to human rights violations they suffered; (2) addressing the exclusion and related injustices that communities and social groups face as a result of targeted violations and structural marginalization; (3) strengthening the rule of law and making it more inclusive; and (4) catalyzing the reform of institutions and laws that have perpetuated violence and discrimination as a means to exclude marginalized groups. The report also identifies a number of limitations to the preventive impact of transitional justice, including: (1) tensions that can exist between justice and prevention initiatives, especially in the short term; (2) justice processes that may be seen to be insufficiently participatory or even exclusionary themselves; (3) a lack of implementation of measures and reforms that are designed or recommended; and (4) contextual factors such political dynamics, security concerns, and the absence of broader structural change. The report concludes that applying a prevention lens to transitional justice does not fundamentally change how the field is understood, but it does have broad policy implications. First, fostering inclusion should be a primary objective of both the outcomes and the design of transitional justice mechanisms. Second, assessing the preventive role of transitional justice requires a long-term approach to inclusion and reform as these involve changes to social relationships, institutions, and structures. Third, prevention requires a society to confront both the root causes and consequences of injustice, and transitional justice processes can contribute greatly in this regard. However, they alone are not enough.
- Topic:
- Reform, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Peru, and Oceania
1597. Setting an Agenda for Sustainable Peace: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Colombia
- Author:
- María Cielo Linares
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- This study examines the preventive impact of transitional justice mechanisms created in Colombia before the 2016 peace agreement, namely the 2005 Peace and Justice Law and the 2011 Victims and Land Restitution Law. It finds that transitional justice has contributed to prevention in a number of ways, including by: (1) improving institutional responses for victims of human rights violations and creating spaces for participation; (2) adding issues to the public agenda, such as those related to economic and political networks supporting armed groups and the need to address the plundering of land; (3) developing a culture of awareness and respect for human rights; and (4) strengthening leadership within victims’ communities and facilitating the reintegration of victims into public life. The report also concludes, however, that these transitional justice processes have not done all that they could to promote the structural social changes necessary to resolve the underlying violent dynamics, especially in matters of inequity and discrimination, leaving the door open for future violence. Little progress has been made in addressing economic, social, cultural, and environmental rights violations, and insufficient attention has been paid to gender and ethnic discrimination. Where progress has been made in areas such as land restitution and participation, it has been limited by a lack of coordination between the national and local levels, a dearth of political will, and an ensuing failure of implementation. The study demonstrates that pursuing transitional justice in contexts of ongoing violence requires coordination between the justice and security sectors that depends on a holistic view of security and sustainable development. Additionally, it suggests that transitional justice processes have to work in tandem with the institutions set up to more directly address the structural problems of inequity and inequality. Finally, it contends that promoting the rights to truth, justice, reparation, and nonrecurrence requires a strategy to comprehensively address the associated demands and expectations.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Peace, Reparations, Gender, Atrocity Prevention, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
1598. Moving from Mirage to Reality: Transitional Justice and Prevention in Morocco
- Author:
- Mustapha Hadji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- This study examines how transitional justice in Morocco has contributed to the prevention of serious human rights violations, mainly related to state violence and repression and social and economic exclusion. Beginning in the 1990s, Morocco’s a constitutional monarchy engaged in a process of liberalization that included efforts to address past grave human rights violations. In the 2000s, these efforts centered on the Equity and Reconciliation Commission (IER), a truth-telling initiative that recommended and helped bring about other transitional justice processes such as reparations, the preservation of memory, and a series of institutional and legal reforms intended to prevent the recurrence of those violations. Despite the political liberalization that was underway, Morocco’s transitional justice efforts were not undertaken in a context of regime change. Morocco’s experience nevertheless suggests that limited political reform can have real but restricted impact on the prevention of human rights violations. As a truth-telling measure, the IER diagnosed some of the wrongdoings of the past and called for reform to prevent their recurrence. Reparations provided important benefits to victims that had improved inclusion, while collective reparations drew attention to regional exclusion and inequality. Beginning in 2011, a new constitution facilitated institutional and legal reforms that had been recommended by the IER, many of which included the protection of human rights. The fact that the regime that was responsible for past human rights violations remained in control of the transitional justice processes—and at the same time it was perpetrating abuses in the name of anti-terrorism—however, has undermined the legitimacy of those processes and constrained their preventive impact. While the Moroccan monarchy may have no desire to return to the widespread repression of the Years of Lead, the persistence of human rights violations, corruption, inequality, and social unrest in the country suggests that a transitional justice approach that is more comprehensive and inclusive and, in the end, more fully implemented has the potential to make a greater contribution to preventing future wrongs.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Reform, Memory, Institutions, Reparations, Atrocity Prevention, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Morocco
1599. Our Identities under Arrest
- Author:
- Kellyn Botha
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- ILGA World (International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association)
- Abstract:
- Arrests and prosecutions for consensual same-sex sexual acts, or for diverse gender expressions, continue unabated across the world. And yet, they are considerably under-reported. Our Identities Under Arrest is a brand-new publication by ILGA World offering a global overview of the enforcement of laws criminalising consensual same-sex sexual acts between adults and diverse gender expressions. The report reviews hundreds of cases in which law enforcements subjected LGBT and gender-diverse persons to fines, arbitrary arrests, prosecutions, corporal punishments, imprisonments and more – up to (possibly) the death penalty. Governments often argue that criminalising laws are ‘dormant’, but this report offers evidence that such claims are largely inaccurate. How – and how often – they are enforced can vary abruptly and in unpredictable ways, making both our communities on the ground and asylum seekers who managed to flee live perpetually under threat. The Our Identities under Arrest report will be of great value to the advocacy work of human rights defenders. It will assist asylum seekers and the legal experts working on their cases. And it will provide researchers, media outlets, governmental and global agencies with the necessary information to build a holistic picture of how the criminalisation on the grounds of sexual orientation, gender identity, and gender expression really looks like.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Law Enforcement, LGBT+, and Criminalization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
1600. Asking my Sisters Intergenerational Voices of Women from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Mindanao
- Author:
- Berghof Foundation
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- In this booklet female ex-combatants from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front - Bangsamoro Women's Auxiliary Brigade (MILF-BIWAB) and their daughters in Mindanao share their stories from the region’s post-conflict reconciliation process.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines