Search

Begin New Search Content Type Special Report Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

701. And So Now… It’s War?

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The battle within Ukraine and the USA-Russia contest over it has returned Europe to the darkest, most ominous period of the 1947-1989 Cold War. That this should happen with both the United States and Russia barreling grimly forward reflects a singular failure of diplomacy and common sense. There were two recent points in time when positive leadership might have turned us away from the path of disaster. Fortunately, one of these is not yet foreclosed. Movement toward resolution begins with recognizing that all sides, all stakeholders share fault for the current crisis. And no side has told the whole truth of it. Without question, Russian intervention in Ukraine’s civil conflict violates international law. Although Russia has the right to defend itself from attack, this proviso does not apply in the current situation. The annexation of Crimea was illegal, as is Russian intervention in the Donbass. This is indisputable.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

702. Russia-Ukraine War: Estimating Casualties & Military Equipment Losses

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Within days of the Russian invasion, it became clear that Moscow’s effort to seize Ukraine had stumbled badly. The Russian military had expected a quick win, but found itself facing a hard slog instead. But why? And how to measure the conflict now?
Topic:
NATO, Weapons, Conflict, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

703. Did NATO expansion prompt the Russian attack on Ukraine?

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Neither NATO nor US policy caused the Ukraine war. The invasion was Moscow’s unforced choice. But that doesn’t settle the issue of provocation. Although neither provocation nor “facilitation” amount to “cause,” such dynamics might have played a role in moving us toward this war. And knowing what role US or NATO policy may have played in bringing the world to this juncture can help illuminate ways to end the conflict (short of prosecuting it to its bitter end – however long that might take and at whatever cost it might entail).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

704. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War

Author:
Charles Knight
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

705. Export Control and Emerging Technology Control in an Era of Strategic Competition

Author:
Ian Stewart
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
CNS has been focused both on the question of emerging technology controls and on the question of export controls in an area of strategic competition. CNS has been undertaking detailed sectoral mapping in relation to several emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, aerospace and avionics, high-performance computing, biotechnology, cybertechnology, telecommunications, and semiconductor technologies. CNS will soon be launching resources intended to help governments and the private sector to manage these technologies in this new security environment. CNS is also working to benchmark and develop good practices in relation to the cybersecurity of export-controlled information. This article is intended to provide a broader framing to the work CNS is undertaking concerning export controls in an era of strategic competition. CNS staff would be happy to brief officials from governments or the private sector on these topics.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Nonproliferation, Strategic Competition, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

706. Responsible Statecraft Correlates with UN Vote on Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Application of the 2021 Peddling Peril Index

Author:
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
On March 2, 2022, the UN General Assembly convened in New York and voted 141 (in favor), 5 (against), and 35 (abstained), on the UNGA Resolution ES-11/1, condemning and demanding an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This invasion is a paramount shift in the status quo of peaceful relations on the European continent and will have repercussions throughout the world. The Institute decided to assess the vote in terms related to international norms of responsible strategic trade and associated behavior, using the results and findings in the 2021/2022 Peddling Peril Index (PPI), which ranks national strategic trade control systems. We could have selected other international normative comparisons, but we decided to use the PPI since national strategic trade controls are often correlated with more responsible state actions, and the PPI also measures adherence to a large number of international treaties and conventions. A central finding is that the vote is positively correlated with states' demonstrated commitment and implementation of international arms control, trade control, and financial practices. Countries that voted against the resolution or abstained from voting performed worse, on average, in the Peddling Peril Index.
Topic:
United Nations, Norms, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

707. Russian Military UAV Used in Ukraine Depends on Foreign Parts

Author:
Spencer Faragasso
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Russia is well known to depend on foreign goods for its military equipment and industries. Recent Ukrainian social media reports illustrate the large fraction of foreign goods in Russia’s Orlan-10, a mid-range, gasoline-engine, propellor-driven reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) widely used by Russian military forces to pinpoint Ukrainian civilian and military targets for artillery strikes.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

708. Procurement Data and Safeguards: Looking Historically and to the Future

Author:
David Albright
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Because nuclear programs depend on procurements, understanding such procurements has become an important aspect of safeguards today. This paper looks back at the development of this approach and draws out lessons for tomorrow. Past cases, recounted using open source data and Institute archives, are drawn from, among others, Iraq Action Team investigations, Iran inspections during 2003-2006, the Khan Network investigations, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. These cases illustrate important lessons about collecting and including procurement data more explicitly in state declarations and meeting inspection and monitoring goals. The cases also demonstrate the value of procurement data in facilitating the detection of irregularities in a nuclear declaration or verifying the correctness and completeness of a state’s nuclear declaration. These experiences and historical cases yield additional insights and lessons into ways to increase the usefulness of procurement data in future safeguards practices and methodologies.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Data, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

709. Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts. With Russia’s horrific onslaught against Ukraine, news reports of a likely breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief. But sadly, that relief will be misplaced. U.S. negotiators have already admitted that the forthcoming deal will not match the nonproliferation achievements of the 2015 agreement, and no official has even hinted that the revised text will either penalize Iran for its flagrant violation of its commitments or address the range of problems that have emerged since the original deal was reached. In this Policy Note, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff delivers a powerful, bipartisan critique, assessing how and why three successive American presidents started their terms with sound ideas on Iran and leverage to advance them but accepted either flawed agreements or America’s own isolation. Looking beyond a new Iran deal, he proposes an urgent agenda: scrupulous enforcement; a renewed push for a “longer, stronger” agreement; early preparation for the day after restrictions expire; close coordination with regional partners to counter Iran’s rising influence; and outreach to the Iranian people, who will see little benefit from the windfall in sanctions relief likely coming to Tehran. American leadership, determination, and resilience, he notes, will be essential.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

710. No Going Back: Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring

Author:
Roy Gutman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
nterviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the third essay in the series, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Roy Gutman opens up the floor for prominent activists to share their observations and lessons learned a decade after the Arab Spring. With a focus on six countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen—this paper shows that despite widespread disappointment with the eventual results of the uprisings, the desire for change persists, the fear barrier has been broken, and hope prevails that a new generation of reformers will ultimately deliver lasting change to the region.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, Civil Unrest, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

711. Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon's Shia Community

Author:
Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The southern Beirut suburb encompasses multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. The highway leading south from Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport skirts the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiya, allowing travelers to feel the group’s power and presence without seeing the surrounding community for what it is—multiple layers of clashing and besieged identities that pose major internal challenges to Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. For motorists, the highway barrier blocks any concept of the area’s polarized conditions, from the posh, shop-lined sections where senior Hezbollah officials live to the dark, impoverished warrens postered with fading images of “martyrs.” Drivers also miss the network of Iran-sponsored media channels, military depots, and religious institutions that flourish in the suburb—along with the secret prisons that fortify Hezbollah’s iron grip. In this Policy Focus, richly illustrated with local maps, former Lebanese journalist Hanin Ghaddar reveals the widening gaps between the country’s Shia community and its Hezbollah overlords, especially since mass protests shook the nation in October 2019. This analysis not only corrects past oversimplifications of Lebanese Shia, it also offers a path for policymakers seeking to undermine the militant group and give the fragile country hope for the future.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

712. Hezbollah in Colombia: Past and Present Modus Operandi and the Need for Greater Scrutiny

Author:
Aurora Ortega
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A probe of the group’s commercial activities can yield insights on its Latin American operations, which in recent years have touched not only Colombia but also Peru, Chile, and Bolivia. Research on Hezbollah in Latin America has tended to focus on Venezuela and the Tri-Border Area, covering Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, but recent events show that less noted countries deserve attention too. In 2014, for example, Peruvian police arrested a Hezbollah operative in Lima’s Surquillo district for planning a terrorist operation, and security services in the region also evidently disrupted a Hezbollah terrorist plot targeting innocent civilians in Chile. In 2017, Bolivian authorities identified a Hezbollah-affiliated warehouse and seized enough explosive precursor material to produce a two-and-a-half-ton bomb. Then, in fall 2021 in Colombia, local reporting indicated that Hezbollah was planning to assassinate an Israeli national as part of a broader operation that also targeted Americans, reportedly to avenge the January 2020 killing of Iran’s Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani. In this incisive Policy Note, researcher Aurora Ortega demonstrates how enhanced scrutiny of Hezbollah’s commercial ventures could provide insight into the group’s operations and potentially disrupt its infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere. To this end, she highlights the activities of little-known Hezbollah agents in Latin America and outlines opportunities for the United States to interdict them through a mix of law enforcement, sanctions, and diplomacy.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Hezbollah, and Commerce
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

713. Beyond the Blocs: Jewish Settlement East of Israel's Security Barrier and How to Avert the Slide to a One-State Outcome

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Communities outside the West Bank security barrier constitute an obstacle to a future two-state solution and a potential source of friction between Washington and Jerusalem. Springtime in Israel has been marked by instability, from a spate of deadly terrorist attacks to the resignation of Idit Silman from the coalition government and violent clashes in Jerusalem. Yet these developments do not change the fundamental challenges in U.S.-Israel relations: first, the shape of a new Iran nuclear deal, and second, Israel’s West Bank policy, which has largely allowed the hardcore among Jewish settlers to pursue their ideological goals through the construction of settlements, outposts, and neighborhoods outside major blocs. In this finely detailed Policy Focus—released in tandem with an update to his landmark “Settlements and Solutions” interactive map—Israel expert David Makovsky explains why communities outside the West Bank security barrier constitute a central obstacle to a future two-state solution. In making his case—aided by an assortment of charts and graphics—he explores settlers’ voting patterns, discusses trends in violent activity on both sides, and explains why a quiet U.S.-Israel understanding could help preserve an outcome that advances both American interests and Israeli democracy.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Violence, and Settlements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

714. Countering Iran's Regional Strategy: A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach

Author:
Eyal Zamir
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A coordinated response to Iran’s aggression can preserve U.S. and Western interests, reinforce Israel and America’s Arab allies, and promote regional stability. For decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to extend its influence throughout the Middle East, and the threat has only grown more serious amid the regime’s enhanced conventional military capabilities and proximity to a nuclear breakout. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has spearheaded Tehran’s expansionist “four capitals” strategy, focused on Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa. In Iraq, the IRGC works through elements of the government-funded Popular Mobilization Forces; in Syria, through the regime of Bashar al-Assad; in Lebanon, through Hezbollah—which can be regarded as Iran’s “model” proxy; and in Yemen, through the Houthis, who hold territory and oppose the internationally recognized government. In all these places, the IRGC has exploited civil wars and interstate conflicts to spread its political, economic, and military influence. In this Policy Focus, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, IDF, draws on his deep experience in the Israeli military establishment to propose a detailed plan for undermining Iran’s influence in the region—an approach that will preserve U.S. and Western interests, reinforce Israel and America’s Arab allies, and promote regional stability.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Instability, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

715. The Age of Political Jihadism: A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Syria-based group now functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, portending a reorientation for the larger jihadist movement. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group previously linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and to al-Qaeda, has evolved in ways that challenge accepted views of “jihadism.” Now ruling over territory in Syria’s northern Idlib and western Aleppo governorates, it functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, and HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani is seeking the group’s removal from the U.S. State Department’s list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. But HTS is hardly anodyne. The group still espouses extremist beliefs that glamorize terrorism abroad, and its fighters fire rockets into civilian areas controlled by the Assad regime. Moreover, HTS hosts other designated groups in its territory, including Jamaat Ansar al-Islam, Katibat Imam al-Bukhari, and Katibat al-Tawhid wal Jihad. In this thought-provoking Policy Focus, illustrated with photographs of HTS personalities and personnel, jihadism expert Aaron Y. Zelin digs deep into the group’s past before reckoning with the implications of Jawlani’s request. Whatever the U.S. decision, he suggests, political jihadism is here to stay.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Governance, Jihad, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

716. The U.S.-Egypt Military Relationship: Complexities, Contradictions, and Challenges

Author:
David Witty
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Shared security interests, such as maintaining and expanding Arab-Israel peace efforts, can serve as the foundation of future ties. Since the Egypt-Israel peace treaty was signed in 1979, Washington has given Cairo more than $50 billion in military grant aid. But a strong military relationship has raised as many questions as it has answered: about the ethics of working with an increasingly harsh authoritarian government; about the partnership’s success in achieving American interests in the region; about the Egyptian military’s willingness to reform; and about whether conditioned aid can spur political change. Correspondingly, the post–Arab Spring years have seen rough patches, caused by U.S. limitations on military aid following the 2013 overthrow of Mohamed Morsi, America’s chafing at Egyptian human rights abuses, and Cairo’s eventual turn toward less restrictive partners such as Moscow and Paris for military supplies. In this comprehensive Policy Focus, David M. Witty—a retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel and foreign area officer—probes the complexities of the U.S.-Egypt military rapport before proposing that Washington base its future ties on shared security interests, including Arab-Israel peace efforts, negotiation of ceasefires between Israel and the Palestinians, and permission for U.S. military transit of Egyptian waterways and airspace.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

717. Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going. Atraveler through today’s Africa might be surprised by frequent markers of a distant power: Turkey. Consider that in Somalia, “Istanbul” is now one of the most popular girls’ names and that Turkey’s largest embassy in the world is located in Mogadishu. In the tiny coastal nation of Guinea-Bissau, Ankara has announced a new embassy, its forty-fourth on the continent. Meanwhile, state-owned Turkish Airlines now flies to sixty-one African destinations, compared to just a handful when Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government began its Africa outreach two decades ago. Trade volume has soared as well, with projects like Turkey’s proposed $4 billion development of Sudan’s Suakin Port drawing headlines­—and consternation from rivals in the Gulf. In this illuminating Policy Note, Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh survey Ankara’s robust activity in sub-Saharan Africa, where dynamics are shifting, and not always to Turkey’s advantage. Amid an economic swoon at home, Ankara is seeking improved ties with Middle East states and could be receptive to cooperating with Washington in Africa as part of the competition against other great powers, namely, China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Sub-Saharan Africa

718. The Necessary U.S. Role in Fixing the Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Dispute

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A targeted intervention could aid American interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas. On February 15, 2022, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled that the 2007 oil and gas law for the Kurdistan Region was unconstitutional, requiring a review of numerous production sharing contracts and oil sales agreements. If the case prevents oil exports via Iraqi Kurdistan, then the world market will almost immediately lose 500,000 barrels per day, triggering higher oil prices, expanded windfalls for Russia and Iran, the collapse of Iraqi Kurdistan’s economy, and a dangerous turn in Baghdad’s ties with Erbil and with Ankara. In this timely Policy Note, Iraq expert Michael Knights calls for the United States to act with other concerned states to resolve the Baghdad-Erbil energy crisis. In doing so, he categorizes the sub-issues of FSC implementation on a spectrum from higher to lower consensus, and explains both sides’ views in an unvarnished, direct manner. A targeted intervention by the United States and its partners, the author argues, could guide the dispute toward a long-overdue resolution that greatly aids U.S. interests and the global effort to find a substitute for Russian and Iranian oil and gas.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Crisis Management, Disputes, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iraq, North America, United States of America, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

719. The Revolution Will Be Televised in Arabic: Iran's Media Infrastructure Abroad

Author:
Hamdi Malik
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An umbrella entity, the Islamic Radio and Television Union, encompasses more than two hundred media groups stretching from Oman to East Africa. The concept sodoure enqelab, or “export of the revolution,” is written into Iran’s constitution, and the country’s founding leaders wasted no time trying to make it a reality. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) launched its Arabic Service in 1980 and subsequently leveraged satellite television to intensify its outreach to Arabic-speaking nations—Shia audiences in particular. Today, IRIB World Service runs fourteen satellite TV channels, three internet TV channels, and thirty-two radio stations, a number of them broadcasting in Arabic. In this highly informative Policy Note, expert Hamdi Malik surveys Iran’s remarkable range of Arabic-language media, with a focus on those under the Islamic Radio and Television Union banner, which encompasses more than two hundred entities. Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria feature strongly in the inventory, but more surprising places such as Oman and East Africa also crop up. To combat Tehran’s media infiltration and secure U.S. interests, the author urges Washington to promote a true partnership between Western countries and the region’s many media actors who wish to challenge Iran’s propaganda machine.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Media, and Propaganda
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

720. U.S. Counterterrorism Reimagined: Tracking the Biden Administration's Effort to Reform How America Addresses Violent Extremism

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This collection reveals the growing prevalence of nonkinetic tools while exploring the balance authorities must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights. Two very different events epitomized the CT/CVE challenge facing the incoming Biden administration in 2021: the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol and the August U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. The first reflected the sharp rise in violent extremism from white su­premacists, anti-government actors, and other similar figures, while the second presented the disturbing prospect of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as a haven for Islamist terrorism. These watershed moments occurred as Washington sought to free up funds to address a wide range of equally important national security issues, from the rise of China and Russia, to climate change, domestic infrastructure needs, and public health issues. The tenth volume of The Washington Institute’s Counterterrorism Lecture Series, edited by Matthew Levitt, covers the period January 2021 to March 2022. While revealing a trend toward nonkinetic tools—as indicated by a full-day Institute panel devoted to the subject—the selections also probe the delicate but necessary balance officials must strike between preventing attacks and protecting civil rights.
Topic:
Terrorism, Civil Rights, Joe Biden, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

721. China's Security Presence in the Middle East: Redlines and Guidelines for the United States

Author:
Grant Rumley
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information. The U.S. competition with China has reached the Middle East, where the longstanding American security infrastructure faces an increasing array of Chinese arms sales, military deployments, and investments in critical infrastructure. Beijing is keen to strengthen its own relationships in the region and views any reliance on the U.S. security umbrella as a “profound strategic vulnerability.” Yet Washington rightly regards these activities with skepticism, since an expanded Chinese security presence threatens to erode traditional partnerships and compromise sensitive information. For instance, discussions to sell F-35 aircraft to the UAE broke down over American concerns about Chinese-Emirati cooperation, including in the security realm. In this timely Policy Note—illustrated with informative graphics—security expert Grant Rumley traces the contours of China’s Middle East ambitions and where the perils lie for the United States. An effective U.S. response, he contends, will require assessing risk in each specific theater and acting appropriately, thereby ensuring a productive, sustainable American presence in this pivotal region.
Topic:
Security, Infrastructure, Partnerships, and Weapons
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

722. Fighting Jihadists By, With, and Through U.S. Partners: Lessons Learned and Future Prospects

Author:
Ido Levy
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Special forces have succeeded especially in such missions, but any BWT effort requires some U.S. ground presence to achieve its goals. As part of its bid to end Middle East “forever wars,” the United States has employed a “by, with, and through” (BWT) doctrine for fighting jihadist adversaries. Such operations rely on local partner forces to assume the bulk of the hard ground combat, sometimes with U.S. accompaniment, while American advisors provide support through training, intelligence, heavy air and artillery assets, equipment, funding, and logistics. BWT missions have seen success over the past two decades in theaters such as Iraq (with the Counter Terrorism Service), Syria (with the Syrian Democratic Forces), and Somalia (with the Danab Brigade). But they do not succeed on their own and must be guided by several principles, including a serious U.S. commitment, alignment of American and partner interests, and strong interpersonal relations between advisors and local actors. In this tightly argued Policy Note, military analyst Ido Levy emphasizes the particular success of U.S.-created special forces in missions against jihadist forces. But he cautions that BWT efforts cannot thrive without some U.S. ground presence and, as occurred in Afghanistan, would likely fail amid an outright American withdrawal.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

723. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

724. Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy: Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward. Since halting its crash nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Islamic Republic has pursued a cautious hedging strategy that has enabled it to become an advanced nuclear threshold state, while also avoiding a military confrontation with the United States and Israel. Yet Iran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program in order to ease pressure—and in turn to pursue more urgent objectives—may help Washington constrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by amplifying its concerns about the potential risks and costs of proliferating. In this Policy Focus, military analyst Michael Eisenstadt surveys the evolution of Iran’s nuclear hedging strategy and suggests ways for the United States, along with its allies and partners, to shape the regime’s proliferation calculus with the goal of preventing an Iranian breakout and a nuclearized Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

725. Reexamining U.S. Aid to the Middle East: Ideas for Advancing Both Governance and Democracy

Author:
Ben Fishman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Massive U.S. investment has failed to improve outcomes since the Arab Spring uprisings. A more targeted, sensitive approach could yield better results and promote regional stability. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fifth essay in the series, Ben Fishman probes the conundrum of U.S. democracy and governance assistance, wherein billions of dollars have failed to improve outcomes on a range of measures since the Arab Spring uprisings. The former regional National Security Council director traces U.S. support for democratic movements from its Cold War origins to the present day, concluding that a more effective approach must better align policy and spending priorities, account for the challenges facing individual countries, and focus on supporting local governing bodies, independent media, and anti-corruption efforts. Otherwise, the region could well become less free and more prone to fiercer future uprisings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Governance, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

726. The Tenacity of Young Iranians in the Protest Movement

Author:
Haleh Esfandiari
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Despite the regime's crackdown, Iranian protestors are showing unprecedented resilience and unity in their demands, making the international community's next steps even more crucial. Once again, Iranians have come out into the streets to protest against their government, its policies, and its leaders. Once again they face a regime that has proved itself tone-deaf to widespread public discontent—responding instead with brutality, arrests, mass trials, and executions. But this recent wave of protests has proved different. The regime is being confronted by its own children—a generation of young women and men who seek not just reform, not just an easing of controls, but a regime change. The protest movement was triggered when 22-year old Mahsa Amini died while in police custody, beaten to death by the morality police on September 16 because the form of her hijab was not to their liking. Protests quickly erupted immediately after her death, and they are now in their third month.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Economy, Youth, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

727. Hamas at 35

Author:
Devorah Margolin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A look back at the group’s track record and unchanging core ideology shows why its gestures toward democracy and inclusivity should not be mistaken for true moderation. On December 14, Hamas celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of its founding. In addition to unveiling a new logo, the group held a rally in Gaza City, where it showed off the gun of slain Israeli soldier Hadar Goldin, released numerous statements reiterating its goals, and hinted at future conflicts with Israel. Such hostile displays are no surprise given the course of the group’s ideological and political development over the past four decades.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, Hamas, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

728. 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index

Author:
Megi Reci and Daniel Prroni
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
On 15th of December 2022, the Institute for Democracy and Mediation presented the key findings of the 2021 Civil Society Organizations Sustainability Index (CSOSI). This annual index, presents the status and development trends of civil society in 74 countries around the world, focusing on the legal environment, organizational capacity, financial sustainability, advocacy, service provision, sector infrastructure and public image. The 2021 CSOSI on Albania provided an assessment of the enabling environment for the civil society sector by analyzing a number of important developments that took place during 2021. Although the overall sustainability of CSOs did not change, there were slight deteriorations in the legal environment, advocacy and public image dimensions. The legal environment suffered a decline due to some changes in the legal framework affecting CSOs. Prolonged restrictions on gatherings, limited transparency, and the lack of opportunities to consult with the government hindered CSO advocacy initiatives, while the public image of the sector slightly deteriorated as a result of ongoing attacks on CSOs and activists. Other dimensions of CSO sustainability remained largely unchanged. The report on Albania was written by IDM in partnership with FHI 360 and International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, with the support of USAID. It is based on discussions with a panel of Albanian experts, primary data gathered through qualitative research methods, as well as data gathered from a survey administered with local CSOs.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Social Order, and Civil Society Organizations
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

729. Blue on Blue: Investigating Sexual Abuse of Peacekeepers

Author:
Phoebe Donnelly, Dyan Mazurana, and Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
It is commonly assumed that the main threats to uniformed peacekeepers originate from outside of peacekeeping missions. However, many women (and some men) deployed as military or police peacekeepers are subjected to sexual abuse by other members of the organizations they serve. Until now, there has been little research specifically focused on this sexual abuse by uniformed peacekeepers against their peacekeeping colleagues. This paper helps fill that gap, drawing on a survey of peacekeepers as well as data from interviews and a closed-door workshop. It presents findings related to the extent, frequency, and type of abuse peacekeepers have experienced and witnessed; the perpetrators of this abuse; the organizational cultures that enable it; and peacekeepers’ perceptions of the UN’s response. These findings reveal that while sexual abuse is a major threat to uniformed peacekeepers, especially women, the UN and troop- and police-contributing countries (T/PCCs) have not adequately responded to the issue. This lack of attention is in contrast to the relatively robust architecture for reporting on and investigating sexual exploitation and abuse of host communities in peacekeeping environments.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Gender Based Violence, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

730. Measuring the Resilience of Livelihoods in Darfur: The Income Streams Index

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick and Hassan Alattar Satti
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Resilience is the recognition that people are active agents in their own survival in the face of crises. Understanding the dynamics of how households in crisis-prone contexts plan for and respond to crises can help structure policy, development, and humanitarian activities to support their strategies, reducing the impact of crises, speeding recovery, and reducing the amount of humanitarian assistance required. A resilience indicator that is both quantitative and descriptive is needed to see how crises affect households and the livelihoods through which they meet their needs. Previously proposed measures either use proxies of outcomes or combinations of economic and wealth measurements, but none measure livelihoods themselves in real-time. This report uses an innovative real-time index, the Income Streams Index (ISI), to teach us how households in South, West, and North Darfur states in Sudan managed and adapted their livelihood activities in the face of multiple shocks of various types and sizes over a three-year period (2018 to 2021).
Topic:
Development, Resilience, Livelihoods, and Structuralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

731. Market Access and Quality Critical for Food Security in Periods of Stress

Author:
Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This briefing paper describes how market access is associated with household food security and dietary diversity in the Karamoja region of Uganda in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, according to both the study’s primary data and secondary data, households experienced significantly worse conflict, climate, and economic shocks compared with 2019. These shocks in 2018 led to a decline in livestock production, increase in food prices, and declines in terms of trade. While the experience of shocks was worse according to many indicators in 2018, household food security and , dietary diversity data remained relatively similar across the two years. The data indicate that greater use of markets during the more stressful 2018 year might have mitigated the expected, but not observed reduction in food security. Better market quality and access was associated with using fewer short-term coping strategies and better food security and dietary diversity, but only in 2018, when households experienced more shocks. Thus, households are likely to be more reliant on markets during periods of greater stress. This analysis is part of the United States Agency for International Development/Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA)-funded Apolou Activity, a consortium led by Mercy Corps. It was designed to help Mercy Corps and other national and international actors to address youth’s vulnerability and opportunities in the Karamoja sub-region. The findings are part of a four-year study carried out in four districts of the Karamoja sub-region. The analysis and findings in this report focus on the first and second round of quantitative data from November/December 2018 and 2019. The data come from a longitudinal two-stage randomized cluster sample of approximately 500 households across 52 villages. The same respondents were interviewed across both years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food, Children, Resilience, and Household
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

732. China’s Antarctic Ambitions – and Their Implications for Australia

Author:
Yun Jiang
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In a new special report AIIA China Matters Fellow Yun Jiang argues that popular Australian concerns around the Antarctic ambitions of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including possible territorial claims, militarisation, and mining, are overstated.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Conflict, Mining, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

733. Winning hearts and minds: the PRC’s efforts to attract scientific talent

Author:
Yun Jiang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In her second policy research report, Ms Yun Jiang, AIIA China Matters Fellow, assesses efforts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to encourage the return of PRC-born scientists from abroad. Xi Jinping has made attracting returnee talent a priority to enable the PRC to achieve greater technological strength and self-reliance. Yun Jiang argues that these sometimes controversial programs have not met their objectives. Many top scientists are reluctant to return because of domestic policies in the PRC. At the same time, scientists of Chinese heritage in the United States face greater scrutiny and suspicion. Australia has an opportunity to attract some of this top scientific talent caught between the two countries.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Hegemony, Business, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China and Asia

734. The Lebanese diaspora and the upcoming elections: Lessons from the 2018 voting

Author:
Georgia Dagher
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
This report examines the choices of the Lebanese diaspora in the 2018 parliamentary elections—the first time out of country voting was allowed—in order to offer some insights on the diaspora’s vote potential impact in the upcoming elections. Wide efforts to encourage the diaspora to vote, led by Lebanese activists all over the world, have succeeded in getting over 225,624 Lebanese on the out of country voters’ list—almost a threefold increase from the last elections in 2018.
Topic:
Diaspora, Elections, Voting, Participation, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

735. Youth political participation in post-2011 Tunisia: Exploring the impact of the youth quota system through the prism of local municipal councillors

Author:
Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Introduced as way to induct youth into institutional politics, Tunisia modified its electoral code in 2014 to include a youth quota, with a mandatory representation of youth on electoral lists for local elections. In April-May 2018, Tunisia held elections for local councils, representing the first mandatory iteration of these youth quotas in practice. The mandatory character of the quotas has theoretically meant that a greater number of young people ran during these elections and are today participating in institutional politics at the local level. What has been the impact of these youth quotas in stimulating youth meaningful participation in the political process? To answer this question, the Arab Reform Initiative conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with ten young local councillors at the municipalities of Kasserine, Foussana, Medjez El Beb, Kairouan, Hajeb Laayoun,e and Chebika. The research sought to understand what distinguished these young councillors from the rest of their age cohort, and in particular to understand what factors led them to become active in the political realm. The research also sought to explore the impact of political socialization on them, as well as their own values and understandings of politics. Finally, the research explored the difficulties they have encountered or are still encountering as young councillors working in public institutions that are new to them. The research has found that primary and secondary socialization are behind youth’s political participation. Young councillors entered politics with the “help” of their primary socialization (family) and secondary socialization (civil society, volunteering, etc.); nonetheless, all of the councillors we met were solicited by older people in their environment (family, friends, professors) looking for young people to add to their list. In other words, none had initiated their own electoral bids, and only a couple were thinking of running for the elections before being solicited. The research has also found that for these young councillors, age difference and gender are perceived as sources of tension. Age difference among the councillors, as well as with the mayor, are perceived as having a negative impact on the youth’s work at the council. This age difference can also take the shape of an experience gap that plays to the detriment of young councillors, as many of the older councillors held the same positions during the Ben Ali era. Likewise, gender intersects negatively with age for young women councillors. Most women councillors noticed that older male councillors adopt certain attitudes to belittle them during the meetings. Moreover, they state that men tend to take advantage of women’s temporal and spatial limitations (their inability to stay out late at night or sit in men’s cafés, for instance) to take decisions in their absence. Yet, alliances based on age are difficult to create, and the only alliance formed was between three young women in Chebika. Despite the difficulties they encounter because of their age and gender, most councillors are gaining experience and self-confidence, leading them to consider running for re-election. Learning, understanding, and ultimately seeing one’s impact in the local environment have been raised as the most motivational aspects of being a councillor. Nonetheless, youth councillors still harbor distinct ideas regarding electoral politics: all of the councillors reject political parties, even those who ran under party banners. They see the “country’s interest” as their main political compass, yet some consider their mandate to be to fight against their region’s historical marginalization. Currently none of the councillors interviewed is affiliated to a political party, and most expressed clear rejection of parties. They perceive them as inefficient and detrimental to the “country’s interest” which held a central place in the councillor’s evaluation of the political landscape. Political parties were mainly depicted as going against the “nation’s interest,” a notion that transcended political affiliations, ideologies, or social class. The youth quota system thus appears to be efficient in inducting youth into institutional politics to the point where most of the councillors we met are considering renewing and deepening (as in running for legislative elections, for instance) their participation in the political landscape. However, the youth quota reaches a limit given the lack of diversity of the youth whose entrance it permitted. The quota opens the way to the most educated portions of youth, that is university graduates, but does not reach young people who left school early. Moreover, these young people have been for the most part socialized into politics through their family or through affiliations such as student unions and local NGOs. Given this, the youth quota – still in its nascent stage – has only a limited impact as it exclusively reaches young people who have predisposition for entering the political realm in the first place.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, Youth, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

736. Youth perceptions of politics in the post-2011 Tunisia: Giving the floor to millennials and Gen Z

Author:
Zied Boussen
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With the annual anniversary of Tunisia’s 2011 Revolution approaching, this study aims to better understand the views of Tunisian youth on politics and the country’s democratic transition, as well as their ambitions and priorities for themselves. In order to understand Tunisian youth today, one must distinguish between two different generations: the generation that led or actively engaged in the revolution (Millennials between 26 and 35 years old), and the generation that only became of age after the start of the political transition (Gen Z, “zoomers,” between 18 and 26 years old). As such, we believe that these two groups of youth show generational differences in terms of their perceptions and interests in politics. To understand generational differences among the youth, 12 focus groups were organized by the Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) across six different municipalities in Tunisia. For Medjez el Bab, Kasserine and Foussana, ARI partnered with the Humetna Association and collaborated with “We Start for Kairouan”, “Hajeb El Ayoun” and “Shabikah”. Youths from each cohort would gather every time to answer questions about what they remember from the pre-2011 and post-2011 periods, about their values and expectations, as well as their priorities and how they assess the services provided by the State. Key findings showed that the sense of belonging to a single generation does not apply to everyone. Millennial respondents seem to identify to a generational group separate from Gen Z, whereas the latter recognizes little to no differences. The differences highlighted by millennials concern lifestyle, spoken language, cultural references, and even the relationship with new technologies. Nonetheless, both groups agree that these differences are far more pronounced among their parents and elders, more so in socio-economic and geographic factors, than age or generational differences. In parallel, the study revealed generational differences with the past. While the two groups share their overall negative assessment of the political situation in the country, Gen Z respondents showed some gaps in their memory of pre-2011 Tunisia and the 2011 events. They also associated the Ben Ali era with more positive aspects than what is present today (calm, security, prosperity). In contrast, millennials had more layered perceptions of the past. Generational differences in terms of social and employment prospects were also detected in the research. Generally, millennials have a bleaker outlook than Gen Z, which is less inclined to leave the country if the opportunity presents itself. However, generational differences are less visible vis-à-vis current politics. Both groups see the role of political parties and leaders in a negative light, with the exception of some atypical figures, namely Kais Saied. For most millennials and zoomers, democracy remains vague, without real impact on their daily lives or foundation in Tunisian academic programs. The main values mentioned are respect, ethics, justice, and equality among all citizens.
Topic:
Politics, Youth, Participation, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

737. Gender Sensitive Urban Policy: Balıkesir-İzmir Examples

Author:
Gizem Fidan
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Gender Sensitive Urban Policy: Balıkesir-İzmir Examples, prepared within the scope of The Empowering Civil Society and Municipalities for Data-Driven Participatory Gender Equality Policies project, carried out by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) with the support of the Association for Monitoring Gender Equality (CEID), aims to to provide brief information on the data collected and maps prepared for the two project provinces and to aggregate the policy recommendations elaborated by the participants from the focus provinces during the workshops.
Topic:
Civil Society, Inequality, Public Policy, Urban, and Gender
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

738. Community-Based Open Data for Disasters and Emergencies

Author:
Hüseyin Can Ünen and Gizem Fidan
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Community-Based Open Data for Disasters and Emergencies” report, prepared within the scope of “Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) for Sustainable Cities” project as a part of “Supporting Sustainable Cities” program aims to provide information about the tools of open data and free, community-based mapping, assess the current situation in this area and compile suggestions and evaluations that emerged as a result of the field studies carried out in İstanbul, Bodrum and Hatay within the scope of the project. We thank the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for their support.
Topic:
Governance, Urban, Data, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

739. Cooperation Between Municipalities and Civil Society for Local Democracy

Author:
Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Given the fact that almost all ecological, economic, political, and social problems around the world are essentially urban issues today, the democratization of urban governance is becoming even more vital of a concern. In order to be able to speak of democratic local governance, all stakeholders of the city are expected to be involved in urban government. One way to achieve this is to plan, implement, and monitor partnerships between municipalities and civil society in a way that strengthens local democracy. When thinking of cooperation with the public sector, civil society organisations (CSOs) in Turkey still tend to think of the municipalities first. In reality, these kind of partnerships tend to be generally far from democratic due to different political, legal, technical and cultural barriers. The analysis and discussions in this report examine the legal framework regarding cooperation between municipalities and CSOs, the policy trajectory in development plans, the factors that support and hinder cooperation, as well as efforts undertaken to strengthen it, in particular TESEV’s Empowering Civil Society for a More Democratic Local Governance Project, which the foundation carried out within the scope of the European Union’s Partnerships and Networks for Enhancing Cooperation Between the Public Sector and CSOs funding program.
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Democracy, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

740. The Missing Link: Understanding Rental Housing for Urban Poor

Author:
Anindita Mukherjee, Shubhagato Dasgupta, Abhinav Kumar, Aastha Jain, and Isha Khurana
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
More than 30 million urban households in India, including urban poor, depend on the rental housing market for their housing needs, out of which around 70 per cent rely on informal rental arrangements. According to the NSSO 76th round (2017-18), 19 million households, 64 per cent of the total rental housing stock, belong to the economically weaker section. This reaffirms the important role of rental housing in providing housing for urban poor, albeit still remains understudied. This study contributes to the emerging discourse on state of rental housing for urban poor while highlighting the emerging policy direction from the analysis therein. Drawing from primary data from a household survey of 1800 urban poor households that included landlord and tenants across Bhubaneswar, Coimbatore, and Cochin across slum or non-slum low income neighborhoods; the findings reveal poorer housing condition in slums than those living in non-slum areas. It also shows that the households providing rental services to urban poor are also urban poor and they continue to rely on informal rental practices. This further perpetuates the deficient access to basic civic infrastructure both for the renter and rent provider, further marginalizing the renter. These findings suggest that there is an imminent need to recognize urban poor households as a critical supplier of rental housing stock for the urban poor and to develop comprehensive approaches for incentivizing them to improve the quality of living in renting arrangements. It further highlights the need to involve communities to create quasi legal structures for easier and faster dispute resolution, preferably outside the formal legal structure – cost of compliance to the Model Tenancy Act (MTA) may end up exacerbating poverty among the renters. The report further highlights the importance of policy and planning measures including earmarking land for affordable rental housing near and around high growth areas, servicing areas where poor urban tenants live, among others. As the fast-urbanising countries debate over the best ways to provide affordable housing at scale in the global south, providing affordable rental housing near places with economic opportunities is emerging as most crucial for fulfilling the vision of ‘Housing for All’. Affordable rent structure, universal access to safe water, sanitation, and connectivity through public transport have the potential to improve the living conditions and quality of life of urban poor enhancing their economic contribution in city making.
Topic:
Poverty, Urban, Housing, and Rent
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

741. India’s Political Parties

Author:
Rahul Verma, Nishant Ranjan, Satyam Shukla, Vaibhav Parik, Shamik Vatsa, and Melvin Kunjumon
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
A study of democracy is incomplete without a study of one of its most fundamental components—political parties. In India, works on the country’s political parties so far have explored, among other things, the direct and indirect relationship between the nature and type of political parties and the different facets of the state and governance. One such recurring theme is the exploration of the overall structure of federalism i.e relationship between the centre and state governments(Gardner 2013; Jenkins and Roscoe 2014; Borges 2011). The influence of political parties on the level of centralization and decentralization has not only impacted the federal structure of the country but has also influenced voters in choosing national parties over regional players(Chhibber and Kollman 1998). This ability of the national political parties to overall influence state-level politics has majorly impacted the regional autonomy of states(Gardner 2013). The transition of the Indian political system into a dominant party system centred around the BJP in the past decade provokes us to see how the changes in the party system are translated across states in India. Initially, we will consider broad and empirical evidence to study the formation, survival and dissolution or exit of parties in India. Here, we show how and when parties in India are formed, what factors impact their survival and what causes their eventual decline and exit. This section is the product of research conducted on a dataset developed over the course of the year. This dataset profiles all parties in all Indian states for legislative assembly elections conducted between 1962 and 2021inclusive. We first start by looking at periods of high formation and dissolution of political parties and find how many of India’s parties fail to last, ending up exiting the competition after a single election. We subsequently differentiate between the types of parties being formed: are they new and organically arising, or are they the product of splintering and shifting within existing parties? Our research does show that many successful parties are not entirely new and there are a significant number of key parties in states that have links to older national parties. This is especially true for the several parties that split from the INC, or ones that emerged from the breakup of the Janata Parivar of parties. Later in this section, we also look at state-wise trends of entry and exit of parties in any given election, and how new entrants perform in comparison to more established players. The results suggest that except in certain regions, the hold of older parties has increased, specifically post-1989,whilstsignificantchange happened before it. It also goes on to suggest that the polity of India’s states may be far more stable than frequently suggested. In the second part of the report, we see how national and regional parties are changing across states in three broad fields—ideologically, in their support bases and in their mobilization strategies and organizational capabilities. We have approached state-level experts in political parties and elections through an online survey to evaluate the parties in the above-mentioned parameters. Insights available from elite surveys(or expert surveys)conducted in the past decades present a national picture of major players in Indian politics in terms of their presence and organizational strength, but we have little to no insights into regional parties and how national parties organize themselves at the state level.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

742. R2P Monitor, Issue 63, 1 December 2022

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 63 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

743. R2P Monitor, Issue 62, 1 September 2022

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 62 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, South Sudan, Yemen, Mozambique, Nigeria and Sudan.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

744. R2P Monitor, Issue 61, 1 June 2022

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 61 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Mozambique and Sudan.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

745. R2P Monitor, Issue 60, 1 March 2022

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 60 looks at developments in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan and Venezuela.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Norms, Atrocities, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, and Central African Republic

746. Q&A with CCAS Assistant Professor Killian Clarke

Author:
Vicki Valosik and Killian Clarke
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Last fall, CCAS was pleased to welcome our newest core faculty member, political scientist Dr. Killian Clarke. Assistant Professor Clarke’s research centers around protest, revolution, and regime change in the Middle East and beyond. He has written about the causes of Egypt’s 2011 revolution, protest and unrest in Syrian refugee camps, pro-democracy social movements in Egypt, and processes of democratization in the post-colonial world. His work has been published in the British Journal of Political Science, World Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Mediterranean Politics, and Comparative Politics. Dr. Clarke is currently writing a book on counterrevolution, which uses the case of Egypt’s 2013 coup and an original global dataset on counterrevolution to explain why some revolutionary governments are toppled by counterrevolutions whereas others go on to establish durable and long-lasting regimes. The graduate-level courses he is currently teaching for CCAS include “Comparative Politics of the Middle East” and “Revolutions in the Middle East.” Dr. Clarke earned his PhD from Princeton University and holds an MA in Middle Eastern Studies from NYU’s Hagop Kevorkian Center and a BA from Harvard University. Prior to joining CCAS, he was a Raphael Morrison Dorman Memorial Postdoctoral Fellow with the Weatherhead Scholars Program at Harvard University. He has kindly agreed to answer a few questions about his research and teaching.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Protests, Interview, and Counterrevolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Egypt

747. Maisa’s Kosher Kitchen

Author:
Lindsey Pullum
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
How one woman’s restaurant reveals the intersections of ethnicity, militarism, and nationalism at play in culinary tourism. Maisa* has turned her modest home on her sleepy residential street into the most popular eatery in the Israeli Druze village of Daliyat al-Carmel. To get there, tourists take the 672 road out of Israel’s port city, Haifa, and climb the mountain north before turning off the main road that leads to the famous Druze Saturday Market. Maisa’s restaurant is part food stop, part cultural museum. With a long, bricked parking lot for 40-passenger buses, the neighborhood transforms daily into a small tourist hub. As you walk in, the enlarged portrait of the late Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Amin Tarif hangs directly in front of the open doors. The coffee stand garners much attention from tourists with a fabric designed with Israeli flags draped down from a window ledge. The fabric is held up by a brass menorah and a miniature metal tank, while a significantly smaller Druze flag is off to the side. Displayed with prominence next to the Israeli flag fabric is a certificate of kosher status, important for any Jew who might adhere to kosher food laws. These displays will soon fade from tourists’ attention once food is served, but for the time being, their function is unambiguous. The stand encapsulates the dominant narrative of brotherhood and patriotism told about a sect within Israel’s Arab minority.
Topic:
Nationalism, Food, Tourism, Ethnicity, Druze, and Militarism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

748. Tabletop Debates: reflections on molokhia, identity, and forks vs spoons

Author:
Antonio Tahhan
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Molokhia—an iconic Middle Eastern and North African soup—can be notoriously slimy. But when I lived in Aleppo, my aunt taught me three tricks to keep the slime at bay: first, leave the molokhia leaves whole (as opposed to chopped); second, squeeze a lemon over the leaves as soon as you add them to the pot; and third, do not overcook them. “This is how we cook molokhia,” my aunt said. The “we” was vague. Did she mean Aleppans? Other Syrians? “Egyptians—they make it the slimy way,” she added, raising a skeptical eyebrow. This led me to wonder: is there such a thing as a “Syrian molokhia” distinct from an “Egyptian molokhia”? In what ways does this dish unite, but also cut through, imagined national categories, in the Arab world and beyond?
Topic:
Food, Culture, Diversity, Identity, Molokhia, and Cooking
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

749. How MAAS alum and food historian Anny Gaul studies cookbooks

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Cookbooks can teach us how to braise a lamb shank, thicken a sauce, or bake a perfect pie crust. But for MAAS alum Anny Gaul (’12), a cultural historian of food and gender, they can do so much more. “Cookbooks can tell us something significant about norms and ideals, what is good taste, what is good food, and how those questions are connected to who we are as a nation,” says Gaul. That is an argument Gaul explores in her recent Global Food History article “From Kitchen Arabic to Recipes for Good Taste: Nation, Empire, and Race in Egyptian Cookbooks.” In Gaul’s paper, which earned her the Global Food History Prize for an Emerging Food Historian, she takes a deep dive into a unique literary sub-genre: cookbooks written by Egyptian women between the 1880s and 1950s. This was a period in Egypt, says Gaul, when female literacy was on the rise, girls were going to school in greater numbers, and women were beginning to pursue degrees abroad. Domestic science was a popular choice, with programs in England and Europe training female students to run efficient and modern home kitchens. A cohort of these women returned to Egypt to author cookbooks that would become widely influential, finding receptive audiences among the country’s emerging middle-class housewives, as well as the public education system, which often adopted their books as home economics texts.
Topic:
History, Food, and Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

750. A transformational moment? The EU's response to Russia's war in Ukraine

Author:
Sergio Carrera, Steven Blockmans, Malorie Schaus, Willem Pieter De Groen, and Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is often said that the EU is forged in crisis. After weathering what feels like so many crises over the past 15 years, the EU’s swift and decisive response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine has, for the most part, been welcomed as the EU finally getting a crisis right. In the first weeks of the war, the EU adopted an impressive series of sanctions, rapidly widening the net cast over growing numbers of targeted individuals and institutions. It has also provided over EUR 2 billion of ‘lethal aid’ to Ukraine to help it fight off the invaders, a notion that would have been absolutely unthinkable only a few short months ago. In advance of our 2022 edition of the annual CEPS Ideas Lab and harnessing our broad inhouse expertise, we gave our CEPS contributors a simple instruction for compiling this special report – to dive deep into their specialist areas and provide their perspective on whether the invasion and subsequent crisis is a true ‘game changer’ in terms of the EU’s immediate and ongoing policy response. Or, to put it another way, will 2022 be viewed by future historians as a year of genuine transformation, a transformation fuelled by the largest conventional conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War? The picture that emerges from the fog of war is a fragmented one. A general conclusion is that while there have been some positive changes in certain policy areas (such as migration, sanctions, energy and climate), the use of the term ‘game changer’ is as of yet unwarranted. The only real exception here, and where an alleged transformation can be argued is really starting to place, is in security and defence policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

751. Odisea Demográfica. Tendencias demográficas en Argentina: insumos clave para el diseño del bienestar social

Author:
Rafael Rofman, Carola Della Paolera, Juan Camisassa, and Emanuel López Méndez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
En los últimos 30 años, aún en períodos de crecimiento económico, Argentina no ha logrado reducir la incidencia de la pobreza por debajo del 25%. En otras palabras, durante las últimas tres décadas, siempre hubo al menos un cuarto de la población que vivió en la pobreza. La pobreza implica vulneraciones en múltiples dimensiones (ingresos, educación, vivienda, etc.) y una política efectiva enfocada en este desafío demanda la adopción de medidas en diversos campos, como la macroeconomía, los mercados de trabajo, la educación, el cuidado y otras políticas sociales. Habitualmente, en Argentina, estos temas son debatidos con un foco marcado en encontrar soluciones de corto plazo a los problemas, lo que dificulta cristalizar mejoras significativas y sostenibles. A esto se suma el hecho de que es habitual que una dimensión tan relevante como las anteriores sea ignorada: la dinámica demográfica. La evolución de la población, en tamaño y estructura etaria, es un factor determinante en las tendencias de mediano y largo plazo, tanto en lo que refiere a las posibilidades de desarrollo económico como a las condiciones de bienestar social, la equidad y la incidencia de pobreza. Este documento analiza los recientes cambios demográficos en Argentina para enfatizar el rol que tiene la demografía en las perspectivas económicas y sociales del país, respondiendo a cuatro preguntas: ¿de dónde venimos?, ¿por qué cambió la tendencia en la fecundidad en el último quinquenio y qué significa esto para la reducción de la pobreza?, ¿en dónde estamos hoy? y ¿hacia dónde vamos?
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Poverty, Society, Well-Being, and Protection
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

752. Americans’ Support for Key LGBTQ Rights Continues to Tick Upward

Author:
Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
For several years, PRRI has surveyed Americans’ support and opposition to three main LGBTQ rights policies: Laws that would protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender people against discrimination in jobs, public accommodations, and housing (since 2015) Allowing a small business owner in your state to refuse to provide products or services to gay or lesbian people if doing so would violate their religious beliefs (since 2015) Allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally (since 2014) All three issues have been addressed in continued policy action and court decisions at the federal and state levels during this time period. There is currently no national law guaranteeing nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people across most categories, but the 2019 Bostock v. Clayton County, Georgia U.S. Supreme Court ruling found that LGBTQ discrimination in employment is considered “sex discrimination” as defined by the Civil Rights Act of 1964.[1] However, that ruling applies only to employment, and beyond that, 29 states currently do not have complete or any nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ Americans.[2] The U.S. Congress is currently considering the Equality Act, which would bar discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity at the federal level.[3] The recent history of LGBTQ rights and the rights of private business owners to deny services that may violate their religious beliefs has been complex, notably involving a highly publicized battle between a baker and a gay couple for whom the baker refused to make a wedding cake. The years long battle culminated in the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, which sided with the baker on narrowly defined terms.[4] The issue remains unsettled, and the Supreme Court will hear another case on the issue in 2022.[5] Same-sex marriage was legalized at the federal level by the Obergefell v. Hodges U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2015.[6] There are fears that the court, which is now majority conservative, might overturn the decision if an opportunity arises. If the ruling is overturned, same-sex marriage might become illegal in states that had not passed marriage equality legislation prior to 2015.[7]
Topic:
LGBT+, Marriage, Identity, and Equality
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

753. American Bubbles: Politics, Race, and Religion in Americans’ Core Friendship Networks

Author:
Robert Jones, Natalie Jackson, Diana Orces, Ian Huff, and Maddie Snodgrass
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
To better understand the composition of Americans’ core friendship networks, PRRI designed a study to assess the scope and diversity of Americans’ social relationships. The method of measuring Americans’ core social networks was modeled after the General Social Survey and follows up on a study PRRI conducted in 2013. Respondents were asked to name people with whom they “discussed important matters” in the previous six months, regardless of the nature of the relationship or the frequency of interaction. This approach is designed to measure the ways in which individuals’ choices and attitudes are influenced by their family and close friends.[1]
Topic:
Politics, Race, Religion, Social Cohesion, Social Identities, and Social Exclusion
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

754. The Role and Importance of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity in Heterosexual and LGBTQ Americans’ Lives

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
n 2021, PRRI asked a series of questions related to how important personal identities are to Americans, one of which was about sexual orientation and gender identity: “When you think about your personal identity, how important is sexual orientation or gender identity in your life?” Respondents could say it is the most important thing, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important. One-third of Americans (33%) said that their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important thing or a very important thing in their lives. Just over four in ten LGBTQ Americans (41%) say their sexual orientation is the most important or a very important part of their identity, compared to one-third (32%) of heterosexual Americans. LGBTQ Americans comprise nine percent of the survey respondents, and 91% are cisgender (not transgender) and heterosexual.[1] It is not surprising that LGBTQ Americans say their sexual orientation or gender identity is the most important or a very important identity given the marginalization of the group and the celebration of Pride Month in June to commemorate the fight for LGBTQ rights and recognition. The concept of a strong cisgender heterosexual identity, however, might be somewhat surprising. This report examines both LGBTQ and cisgender heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity and how the strength of their sexual orientation identity impacts their views.[2] The differences demonstrate quite clearly that heterosexual Americans who say their sexual orientation is a very important identity exhibit cultural and social threat attitudes, whereas LGBTQ Americans with a strong attachment to their sexual orientation are generally more progressive.
Topic:
Religion, LGBT+, Identity, Gender, and Sexual Orientation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

755. Political and Religious Activation and Polarization in the Wake of the Roe v. Wade Overturn

Author:
PRRI Staff
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
PRRI: Public Religion Research Institute
Abstract:
In a survey conducted June 24-26, 2022, after the Dobbs decision was announced, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, including 33% who say it should be legal in all cases and 32% who say it should be legal in most cases. One-third of Americans (33%) say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, including 25% who say it should be illegal in most cases and 8% who say it should be illegal in all cases. PRRI has tracked opinion on this question since 2010, when 55% of Americans said abortion should be legal in most or all cases and 42% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. Much of the change has been in the “all cases” responses: support for legal abortion in all cases has slowly ticked up, from a low of 18% in 2010 and 2011 to the current 33%. Most recently, in March 2022, 28% said abortion should be legal in all cases. Conversely, the proportion of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in all cases has slowly declined, from 15% in 2010, and a high of 19% in 2014, to its current level of 8% (unchanged from 9% in March 2022). Republicans are least likely to say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (35%), but vast majorities of independents (69%) and Democrats (88%) say it should remain legal. Republicans have stayed consistent since 2010 (when 35% said it should be legal in most or all cases), and independents have moved only slightly (from 64% in 2010). Democrats have become considerably more supportive of abortion legality, however, with 71% saying it should be legal in most or all cases in 2010, compared with nearly nine in ten in mid-2022.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, Activism, and Gender
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

756. 2019-2020 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for LGBTI Communities

Author:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
The 2019–2020 Global Resources Report: Government & Philanthropic Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities is the most comprehensive report to date on the state of global funding for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. This report documents data on over 15,800 grants awarded by 499 foundations, intermediary NGOs, and corporations and by 17 donor government and multilateral agencies over the two-year period of 2019–2020. LGBTI communities worldwide face urgent conditions, and grantmakers must mobilize together to financially resource the movements that can meet those needs. This report provides the data to make the case for strategic and impactful funding. Building on three previous editions, and now documenting a combined 8 years, this report provides detailed data on the distribution of LGBTI funding by geography, issue, strategy, population focus, and donor type, offering a tool for identifying trends, gaps, and opportunities in the rapidly changing landscape of LGBTI funding. This new edition documents a total of $576 million, showing that global LGBTI funding grew by 3%, or over $16 million (USD). Notably, this edition of the report also documents a 38% increase in the number of grantees.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Organization, LGBT+, NGOs, and Philanthropy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

757. Baseline Report on Gender-Based Violence in Kosovo: Community and Stakeholder Perceptions

Author:
Teuta Avdimetaj, Dea Fetiu, and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This report provides a baseline assessment of Gender-based Violence (GBV) in Kosovo, with a focus on exploring key trends and challenges based on community and stakeholder perspectives. In doing so, this report relies primarily on data gathered through Key Informant Interviews (KII) and Focus Group Discussions (FGD) to obtain insights from affected communities as they articulate the presence of the threat, the factors influencing its prevalence, and how they consider the approach should be to address it. Although the legal and strategic framework on Gender-based Violence is considered advanced and mostly in line with international standards and EU regulations, the lack of adequate funding and deeply entrenched patriarchal norms in Kosovo’s society make the implementation of these laws difficult to be put into practice.
Topic:
Crime, European Union, Women, Gender Based Violence, Community, Stakeholders, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

758. Public perception on Trust, Corruption and Integrity of Public Institutions in Kosovo

Author:
Plator Avdiu
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Security institutions in Kosovo are constantly maintaining, and in some cases, increasing their trust among the citizens, thus resulting as the most trustworthy institutions compared to other sectors. Kosovo Security Force is the most trusted institution with 83 percent of trust, followed by Emergency Management Agency with 73 percent, and Kosovo Police, which is trusted by 72 percent of respondents. Two other security institutions have marked significant increase in 2022: around 60 percent of respondents trust the Police Inspectorate of Kosovo and 51 percent trust the Kosovo Intelligence Agency. This is the first time that both institutions gained the confidence of more than 50 percent. The President of Kosovo, with 59 percent, and Municipalities, with 55 percent of trust, are ranked as the most trusted among the central and local institutions followed by Kosovo Customs with 46 percent.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

759. Public Perception of Serbian Foreign Policy in the Midst of the War in Ukraine

Author:
Vuk Vuksanovic, Luka Steric, and Maja Bjelos
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine did not significantly affect the perception of the Serbian public regarding the major issues of Serbian foreign and security policy. In this context, this relates to how Serbian citizens think about the influence of great powers in their country and how the public perceives its relations with Russia and Western security institutions, the EU and NATO. The public opinion surveys also showed that the issue of Kosovo is still being perceived as a major foreign policy priority. There is a powerful cynicism in how the Serbian public views great power influences, as most respondents believe that external great powers bribe Serbian politicians and moguls to further their interests in the country. Russia and China are perceived as close foreign policy partners of Serbia, putting them in clear advantage over those who favour the EU on that front. The respondents also believed that Russia and China are sincere friends of Serbia and not players guided by their self-interest. As opposed to the study conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) in 2020, which noted that Serbs perceived Chinese influence in the country as more positive than Russian influence, the latest survey shows that those who believe Russian influence in Serbia is positive have a slight edge over those who believe the same about Chinese influence. This is most likely the result of the fact that China has not been in the spotlight in recent months.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

760. Two Opposite Viewpoints: Overview on How Citizens See Kosovar Bilateral Relations with Serbia and with Albania

Author:
Dea Fetiu and Mentor Vrajolli
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This report examines the perception of Kosovar citizens on bilateral relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and Kosovo and Albania. The report is divided into three chapters: elaborating the findings on citizens’ perceptions regarding ethnic distancing with the two countries, bilateral relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and bilateral relations between Kosovo and Albania.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

761. Citizens' Perceptions on Kosovo's EU Integration Perspective and Regional and International Cooperation

Author:
Dea Fetiu and Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This Western Balkans Security Barometer report examines the perceptions of Kosovo citizens about Kosovo's EU integration process, and the regional and international cooperation. This report consists of two sections. The first section analyzes the public perceptions towards the EU integration, Kosovo’s progress in fulfilling the EU membership criteria, the bilateral relations, and the influence of EU countries towards Kosovo, and an assessment of the EU as a mediator in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. The second section addresses regional cooperation within the Western Balkans countries, the bilateral relations, and the influence of these countries towards Kosovo. The analysis of this report is based on the results of the survey through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents throughout Kosovo, in September, 2021.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

762. The impact of disinformation and political polarization during COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo

Author:
Shpat Balaj and Skender Perteshi
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This report is an attempt to document instances of disinformation and political polarization during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo and to trace their implications in shaping the public’s attitudes to the pandemic and the pandemic’s management. Through a set of mixed methods, which include desk research, media monitoring, focus group queries and public opinion instruments, the report identifies the most frequent disinformation narratives encountered in Kosovo’s public domain, studies the way they connect to global and regional narratives related to COVID-19 pandemic and investigates how key upheavals in the country’s political environment undermined Kosovo’s vaccination bid and contributed to public’s vaccines reluctance and the subsequent record number of deaths. Through examples in Kosovo, the report corroborates recent scholarly finds that examine the public’s trust in government and that country’s vulnerability to disinformation. The report shows that the trust towards the institutions, and the politicization of public health issues, affects the public perceptions around public health issues, resulting in an environment with more potential for the penetration of disinformation. In this vein, the report concludes that the mainstream media’s efforts to produce and provide credible information to the public about COVID-19 is challenged by the presence of false and fake news and conspiracies about the virus and the pandemic disseminated primarily through social media and unverified online sources.
Topic:
COVID-19, Disinformation, Polarization, and Trust
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

763. Kosovo citizens perceptions of violent extremism and reintegration and rehabilitation of the returnees

Author:
Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Kosovo citizens continue to perceive violent extremism as a threat for the national security of Kosovo. Majority (76%) of the WBSB respondents believe that violent extremism presents a high threat or a threat for Kosovo. As per the forms of violent extremism, Kosovo citizens see the ethno/national based violence as the most threating, with 42 percent of respondents sharing the opinion that it presents a high threat for the security of Kosovo. Political based violence is perceived as a high threat for the security of Kosovo by 38 percent of the WBSB respondents, while religious based violence is perceived as threatening by 34 percent of the respondents. Kosovo, as other European countries, have faced challenges with respect to participation of citizens in foreign conflicts. The WBSB data shows that 37 percent of the respondents see citizens that participated in the war zones in Syria and Iraq and returned to Kosovo, as a high threat potential for the country.
Topic:
National Security, Public Opinion, Violent Extremism, Rehabilitation, Reintegration, and Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

764. Citizens perceptions of integrity of public institutions in Kosovo

Author:
Shpat Balaj
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Kosovo Security Forces, the Kosovo Police, the President of Kosovo and the Municipalities are the most trusted public institutions in Kosovo, with over 50 percent of respondents declaring that they trust or completely trust these institutions. This is followed by the Kosovo Customs and the Kosovo Intelligence Agency with 45 percent of respondents sharing such an opinion. On the other hand, less than 40 percent of the respondents declared that they trust or completely trust Courts, Prosecution, Kosovo Correctional Services, the Government of Kosovo and the Kosovo Assembly. The results of the report show that citizens of Kosovo find the security institutions more reliable with a higher level of trust towards them, compared to other public institutions in Kosovo, such as the justice institutions which citizens perceive less trustworthy and with weak integrity. The citizen confidence in the institutions of the Courts and the Prosecution in Kosovo has been consistently in decline, and this is concerning. Citizens have higher confidence in the public institutions from the central level, especially when compared to the previous year (2020), however, the skepticism towards these institutions generally prevails.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Public Opinion, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

765. The role of local governance in achieving political stability: A joint public-private effort towards sustainable development

Author:
Pranish Desai
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Improving local governments' performance is vital because it is the governance sphere that is closest to local communities, local businesses, and local economic activities. It is in the best interest of companies operating in municipalities to play an active role in ensuring that their host municipalities can effectively deliver services, maintain infrastructure and plan for the future, thereby catalysing sustainable development. This will not only benefit municipalities and businesses but communities at large.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Political stability, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Africa

766. The Russia-Ukraine War and addressing Africa's food security challenges

Author:
Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted and worsened systemic weaknesses in the current international food system which pose a disproportionate risk to African countries, and companies doing business in Africa, due in large part to their high dependence on fuel and food imports.
Topic:
Food Security, Business, Imports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

767. Implications of COP26 for Africa's mining industry

Author:
Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
Due to the importance of critical minerals in the energy transition, the mining industry has a significant role to play in the pursuit of a net-zero future. At the same time, critical minerals mining is an environmentally damaging process, often occurring in jurisdictions with poor labour and environment standards, compounded by political instability risk. The recently concluded 26th Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) shows that Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) integration must play a larger role in the mining industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Political stability, Mining, Industry, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa

768. Philanthropic Funding for Parent, Caregiver, and Family Support Programs in the Global South

Author:
Sweta Shah
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
The evidence is clear that from the moment a child is conceived, they need their parents, caregivers, and/or families to survive, thrive, and meet their developmental potential. Earlier this year, the ECFG Parenting & Family Strengthening interest group identified the need to understand philanthropic investments that support the adults whose behaviors, skills, and well-being impact children’s development. ECFG commissioned this exercise to map foundation investments in parenting and caregiving across the Global South. This mapping explores the who, what, when, where, and how of these investments.
Topic:
Children, Investment, Family, Philanthropy, Funding, and Caregivers
Political Geography:
Global South

769. Is a Genocide of Muslims Underway in India?

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Over the past decade, India has experienced a dangerous rise in Islamophobia. There are near daily episodes of harassment, public beatings and mob assaults, destruction of property, and lynchings that have created an atmosphere of fear for the country’s 200+ million Muslims. The rise in this bigotry has largely come into being with the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a right-wing Hindu nationalist party. Videos of BJP politicians and right-wing Hindu religious leaders calling on Hindus to bear arms and to kill Muslims have become a normal feature in Modi’s India, where the Prime Minister has failed to condemn such rhetoric or speak out against the rising instability and divisions within society. The inaction and appeasement by the judiciary, law enforcement, and senior levels of government has signaled to the followers of Hindutva, a far-right political ideology that advocates for Hindu supremacy, that those in power support their efforts to carry out their mission of making India a Hindu-only nation. With this, the threat of mass atrocities is growing and becoming a dangerous reality. This report examines the situation in India utilizing Gregory Stanton’s 10 stages of genocide, and finds that examples of the first 8 stages of genocide are present in India. Currently, the country is teetering at stage 8 (persecution) with the indicators of stage 9 (extermination) becoming more and more visible. Islamophobia has been central to the BJP and the Hindu nationalist movement, as their goals are reliant on the subordination and dehumanization of Indian Muslims.
Topic:
Genocide, Islamophobia, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Muslims
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

770. “Don’t Abandon Us”: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Papua, Indonesia

Author:
Made Supriatma
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report assesses the risk of mass atrocities (large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations) in Papua, Indonesia, over the next 12–18 months. Since its integration into Indonesia in 1969, Papua has seen ongoing political resistance and armed rebellion in favor of independence, and government repression in response. The region is home to Indigenous Papuans and a growing population of migrants from other parts of Indonesia, layering intercommunal tensions on top of the conflict over the region’s governance. An upward trend in the frequency of violent incidents prompted this analysis of the potential for mass atrocities. This report is based on field research in Indonesia, including in Papua, from March to August 2021, as well as on expert consultations and a literature review. The report’s conceptual framework and research questions draw from the atrocity assessment framework developed by the US government.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Indigenous, Industry, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

771. Justice Options for Ethiopia: Eight Options to Provide Redress for Ethiopia's Victims

Author:
Sarah McIntosh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The most recent conflict in Ethiopia has claimed thousands of lives and perpetrators have enjoyed almost complete impunity for their crimes. Ɣ Justice and accountability for perpetrators on all sides are desperately needed to demonstrate that perpetrators will not escape punishment, to provide recognition and repair to victims, and to promote social healing and reconciliation. Ɣ Ethiopian civil society representatives have called for the full spectrum of transitional justice mechanisms including criminal accountability, reparations, truth telling, and guarantees of non-recurrence.
Topic:
Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Impunity, Accountability, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, East Africa, and Tigray

772. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation

Author:
Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
Topic:
Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

773. Promoting the Inclusion of Europe’s Migrants and Minorities in Arts and Culture

Author:
Lucía Salgado and Liam Patuzzi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Decades of sustained immigration have transformed many European cities into mosaics of different cultures. Yet this diversity is not always mirrored in the art celebrated in museums, the plays produced in major theaters, and the music heard in concert halls. In addition, well-intended efforts to celebrate ethnic and cultural diversity through art and culture run the risk of overemphasizing differences, exoticizing minority groups rather than contributing to the normalization of diversity within society. But this status quo may be changing. Widespread anti-racism protests have prompted long-overdue conversations about mis- and under-representation of minorities as well as discrimination in the cultural scene. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions have placed further financial strains on the already fragile cultural sector, challenging organizations to reach new audiences in new ways. This MPI Europe report, which draws on interviews with cultural professionals from 11 European countries, explores approaches to strengthening the participation of migrant and minority communities in arts and culture, with potential benefits for immigrant integration outcomes, social cohesion, and the vibrancy and sustainability of cultural institutions. It examines migrants’ and minorities’ inclusion on three levels: as visitors of cultural venues and consumers of art, as featured artists and performers, and as leaders and staff within cultural institutions. The research was conducted within the framework of the Urban Agenda Partnership on the Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees, co-led by the City of Amsterdam and the European Commission and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs.
Topic:
Migration, Arts, Culture, Minorities, European Union, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe

774. Digital Health Credentials and COVID-19: Can Vaccine and Testing Requirements Restart Global Mobility?

Author:
Lawrence Huang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, rising vaccination levels and widespread testing in many countries are giving governments and the public increasing confidence in international travel. A central part of efforts to restart mobility are digital health credentials, which verify a person’s vaccination, testing, and/or recovery status. These credentials help to minimize the risk of travelers carrying the virus, and unlike paper credentials that must be manually inspected in airports and at borders, digital credentials can be automatically verified. But even as digital health credentials are becoming increasingly common, gaps in international coordination and technical integration issues between different credential systems remain. As a result, migrants and travelers moving between—and at times within—countries must navigate a complex maze of digital systems. This report examines the implications of digital health credentials for international travel and for immigrants’ and travelers’ access to domestic services and venues that also use such credentials. It also explores the implications for specific groups: tourists and business travelers, students, labor migrants, asylum seekers and refugees, and unauthorized migrants. Finally, it offers policy recommendations to facilitate mobility and minimize risks for people on the move.
Topic:
Health, Immigration, Border Control, Employment, Mobility, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

775. Destination-Country Policies to Foster Diaspora Engagement in Development

Author:
Kathleen Newland
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
It is now widely recognized that emigrants and their descendants contribute greatly to the development of their countries of origin or ancestry, not only with remittances but also by starting businesses, through exchanges of knowledge, and more. And many migrant-origin countries have invested in connecting with their diaspora and leveraging its contributions. Far less attention has gone, though, to how countries of destination with substantial official development assistance programs are supporting—or could support—their resident diasporas’ engagement in the development of countries of origin. This report explores the diaspora engagement actions and policies of Western donor governments—including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United States—highlighting distinctive features. It considers a variety of modes of engagement, such as assistance with forming or strengthening diaspora organizations, grants for diaspora-led development projects, consultations, skills circulation initiatives, and support for entrepreneurship. The report also explores why more destination countries have not (consistently) operated diaspora-for-development programs, and offers lessons about effectiveness and sustainability.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, Governance, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

776. From Fear to Solidarity: The Difficulty in Shifting Public Narratives about Refugees

Author:
Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Refugees and asylum seekers are alternatively depicted as heroes or security threats, victims or exceptional workers, exemplary neighbors or opportunists. And though public narratives are sometimes described as a binary, in reality, people can hold multiple, competing beliefs and opinions about forced migration and its impacts on society. They may, for example, experience pride in their country’s humanitarian response and compassion for refugees alongside anxiety over changing cultural norms or fear of competition for scarce jobs, each of which can become more or less salient under different circumstances. These public attitudes can create or constrain the space needed for sensible and creative policy responses, as well as community cohesion. As a result, governments, international organizations, and advocates have invested in myriad programs and campaigns to bolster solidarity and defuse negative reactions to forced migrants. Yet, as this study discusses, changing people’s minds is far from straightforward. This report—the first in the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the different narratives that tend to emerge in communities welcoming forced migrants, looking at a variety of geographic, socioeconomic, and historical contexts. It also explores two categories of interventions that aim to address negative narratives about refugees and asylum seekers: information campaigns that aim to defuse threat narratives and “contact-building” initiatives that seek to build connections between refugees and host communities. The report concludes by offering strategies to promote solidarity and mitigate tensions.
Topic:
Immigration, Employment, Refugees, Economy, Asylum, Integration, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

777. The Future of Remote Work: Digital Nomads and the Implications for Immigration Systems

Author:
Kate Hooper and Meghan Benton
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The pandemic spurred a rapid shift in working practices. In the decades leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, technological advances had allowed a growing number of people with jobs not tied to a specific location to work remotely, particularly in high-income countries with robust technological infrastructure. But the social-distancing and lockdown measures implemented in early 2020 accelerated this trend, with many people working remotely for the first time and some “digital nomads” seeking to do so internationally. These changes in the world of work have important ramifications for immigration systems worldwide, most of which are poorly attuned to remote work arrangements. Finding ways to adapt immigration policies to keep pace with remote work trends is likely to remain important even as the public-health threat recedes in many places, as there are signs that many employers will continue to demonstrate far greater flexibility about where their employees work—both as a means to streamline operations and to attract and retain workers who are increasingly demanding the option to work remotely. This report examines the challenges that remote workers and their employers face when navigating immigration systems, and analyzes opportunities to introduce greater flexibility into immigration, employment, and tax policies to accommodate the rapid rise of nontraditional working arrangements. In the immigration sphere, it identifies options for adapting existing immigration pathways to accommodate remote work and discusses the new digital nomad visas that have sprung up in countries around the world.
Topic:
Migration, Employment, Immigration Policy, Remote Work, and Digital Nomads
Political Geography:
Global Focus

778. The COVID-19 Catalyst: Learning from Pandemic-Driven Innovations in Immigrant Integration Policy

Author:
Jasmijn Slootjes
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Despite talk of COVID-19 as a “great equalizer,” the pandemic and its economic fallout have hit certain segments of European and North American societies particularly hard. Among them are immigrants and refugees, and especially groups with distinct vulnerabilities, such as refugee children, irregular migrants, and migrant women. Without swift government intervention, the twin public-health and economic crises risk jeopardizing immigrant integration and creating durable rifts in diverse societies. Yet precisely at a time when bold and agile policy responses are needed, the pandemic has disrupted governments’ usual ways of working. When lockdown and social-distancing measures were introduced in 2020, many in-person integration services were suspended, and both these programs and the day-to-day work of governments and civil-society organizations shifted online. This opened new opportunities but also hindered the engagement of migrants, policymakers, and other stakeholders with limited digital access or literacy. This report examines how governments’ immigrant integration strategies, partnerships, and policy priorities have changed in the two years since the pandemic began. It explores how this period of forced adaption has worked as a catalyst for innovation at the local, national, and (in Europe) EU level, drawing on interviews with senior policymakers and other experts in North America and Europe. The report then distills recommendations on how to leverage these innovations to durably improve the governance of immigrant integration.
Topic:
Education, Employment, Innovation, COVID-19, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

779. Rebooting the Asylum System? The Role of Digital Tools in International Protection

Author:
Hanne Beirens
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the way asylum systems use technology. After the initial pause on asylum processing in many countries, officials have turned to digital tools to revive these systems—and increasingly, to reimagine how they work. From the further digitalization of identification and security-check processes to chatbots that help asylum seekers register their protection claims and interviews conducted remotely via video call, such tools have permeated every corner of migration, asylum, and border management systems. This is particularly the case in Europe, where the 2015–16 migration and refugee crisis kickstarted a first round of growth in this area. With digital tools here to stay, the time is ripe to examine what impact their use has on people and processes, and how digitalization may interact with other developments in the international protection field. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—catalogues the use of digital tools in protection systems in Europe and elsewhere, and reflects on what the ramifications could be for humanitarian protection in the years to come. “Digitalization in and of itself is no universal cure,” the author writes, “and depending on how such efforts are carried out, they could obstruct the asylum process and violate asylum seekers’ rights as easily as they could facilitate or protect them.” This report highlights both the potential benefits of the increasing use of digital technology in different stages of asylum processes as well as key challenges and risks that need to be addressed, including concerns about data privacy, opaque decision-making, and how technology changes the nature of human communication.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

780. Financing Responses to Climate Migration: The Unique Role of Multilateral Development Banks

Author:
Lawrence Huang, Ravenna Sohst, and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
As climate change increasingly contributes to migration and displacement in many parts of the world, there is a pressing need for measures that build resilience and prevent displacement as well as those that help climate-affected people move to safety and support receiving communities. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are critical, if sometimes overlooked, players because of their ability to invest in large-scale projects that contribute to sustainable development, primarily in low- and middle-income countries. This report explores the unique role of MDBs in the climate finance landscape and highlights opportunities for migration, humanitarian, and other key actors to partner with them on projects that effectively target climate-related migration and displacement. After reviewing the evidence on the complex linkages between climate and mobility, the report examines MDBs’ climate-related work to date, challenges they face to scaling up these efforts, and strategies to begin to address hurdles. These recommendations include learning from past MDB investments that have touched on climate migration, funding data collection or sharing to strengthen understanding of climate migration trends, and developing partnerships to support policy and project development, financing, and implementation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Migration, Finance, and Banks
Political Geography:
Global Focus

781. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Author:
Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
Topic:
NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

782. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare

Author:
Sarah J. Lohmann, Chuck Benson, Vytautas Butrimas, Georgios Giannoulis, and Gabriel Raicu
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states. Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green transition are increasing, making it urgent that new tools are developed to protect these emerging technologies. No less significant are the cyber and information operations targeting energy security in Eastern Europe as it seeks to become independent from Russia. Economic coercion is being used against Western and Central Europe to stop gas from flowing. China’s malign investments in Southern and Mediterranean Europe are enabling Beijing to control several NATO member states’ critical energy infrastructure at a critical moment in the global balance of power. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare will be an important reference for NATO officials and US installations operating in the European theater.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Economics, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Renewable Energy, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, Western Europe, and Southeast Europe

783. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

Author:
Carl V. Evans, Chris Anderson, Malcom Baker, Ronald Bearse, and Salih Biçakci
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking in the fields of academe, emergency management, and the industry practitioner community was a handbook that leveraged the collective subject matter expertise of the core lecturer team, a handbook that could serve to educate government leaders, state and private-sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, academicians, and policymakers in NATO and partner countries. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency is the culmination of such an effort, the first major collaborative research project under a Memorandum of Understanding between the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), and NATO COE-DAT. The research project began in October 2020 with a series of four workshops hosted by SSI. The draft chapters for the book were completed in late January 2022. Little did the research team envision the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, successive missile attacks against Ukraine’s electric generation and distribution facilities, rail transport, and cyberattacks against almost every sector of the country’s critical infrastructure have been on world display. Russian use of its gas supplies as a means of economic warfare against Europe—designed to undermine NATO unity and support for Ukraine—is another timely example of why adversaries, nation-states, and terrorists alike target critical infrastructure. Hence, the need for public-private sector partnerships to secure that infrastructure and build the resiliency to sustain it when attacked. Ukraine also highlights the need for NATO allies to understand where vulnerabilities exist in host nation infrastructure that will undermine collective defense and give more urgency to redressing and mitigating those fissures.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

784. The Future of the Joint Warfighting Headquarters: An Alternative Approach to the Joint Task Force

Author:
Eric Bissonette, Thomas Bruscino, Kelvin Mote, Matthew Powell, and Marc Sanborn
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The US military must create standing, numbered, and regionally aligned Joint warfighting headquarters— American Expeditionary Forces (AEFs)—around a command council and a staff organized into Joint centers and cells. Calls for standing Joint force headquarters are not new, but the demonstrated military effectiveness of the Joint Task Force (JTF) model coupled with increasing service-specific resource requirements and tightening fiscal constraints have resulted in little evolution in joint force headquarters construction since the end of World War II. Analysis of the historical record has shown that joint warfighting is best conducted with a Joint warfighting command subordinate to the geographic combatant commands. However, the Joint Task Force model is problematic because the ad-hoc, post-crisis activation of JTFs, along with their antiquated command and control structure, inherently puts the United States at a strategic and operational disadvantage. In the future, the US military will primarily maintain its competitive advantage, especially in great-power competition, by being a superior and sustainable joint force sooner than its adversaries. The proposed AEFs draw on generations of hard-earned experience to maintain and grow American supremacy in Joint warfighting in an increasingly dangerous world.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Army, and Joint Operations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

785. Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete. This analysis emphasizes coercion does not depend simply on imposing costs; rather, it depends on placing adversaries in positions in which they must act and their most rational option is the one most beneficial to one’s own cause. To achieve this result, actors must carefully calibrate their demands to ensure their adversary’s cost of concession is as low as possible. To prevent challenges in the first place, actors should convince the adversary acting on a threat is one’s most rational response. If convincing the adversary is not possible, then one must find ways to decrease the value of the adversary’s challenge. When none of those options are possible, preparing for conflict is likely one’s rational option. This analysis then applies the rules of thumb to US relations with China, Russia, and Iran.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Game Theory, Coercion, and International Competition
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

786. Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers

Author:
Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, David Brewster, Christopher Cairns, Roger Cliff, and R. Evan Ellis
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities, and the implementation of major structural reforms, the People’s Liberation Army has built a more integrated joint force capable of conducting a wider and more complex array of missions. This volume advances the understanding of the People’s Liberation Army’s capability to conduct overseas missions by examining China’s military relations with Europe, Africa, and Latin America; the country’s military activities in the Indian Ocean, polar regions, and Pacific Island countries; and the emerging roles of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force. This volume finds the People’s Liberation Army is engaged in a wide range of activities throughout the world, including port calls, joint exercises, seminars, and personnel exchanges. China sells weapons to some parts of the world and seeks to acquire military and dual-use technology from others. In addition, the People’s Liberation Army seeks to increase its capability to operate in parts of the world, such as the Indian Ocean, Pacific Island countries, and polar regions, where the organization has only had a minimal presence in the past.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

787. The Grand Strategy of Gertrude Bell: From the Arab Bureau to the Creation of Iraq

Author:
Heather S. Gregg
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The remarkable life of early-twentieth-century British adventurer Gertrude Bell has been well documented through her biographies and numerous travel books. Bell’s role as a grand strategist for the British government in the Middle East during World War I and the postwar period, however, is surprisingly understudied. Investigating Gertrude Bell as both a military strategist and a grand strategist offers important insights into how Great Britain devised its military strategy in the Middle East during World War I—particularly, Britain’s efforts to work through saboteurs and secret societies to undermine the Ottoman Empire during the war and the country’s attempts to stabilize the region after the war through the creation of the modern state of Iraq. As importantly, studying the life and work of Bell offers a glimpse into how this unique woman was able to become one of the principal architects of British strategy at this time and the extraordinary set of skills and perspectives she brought to these efforts—particularly, her ability to make and maintain relationships with key individuals. Bell’s life and work offer insights into the roles women have played and continue to play as influencers of grand strategy.
Topic:
History, Military Strategy, Grand Strategy, World War I, and Gertrude Bell
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Mesopotamia

788. The Coming Storm: Insights from Ukraine about Escalation in Modern War

Author:
Benjamin Jensen and Adrian Bogart
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Based on three crisis simulations held in late March 2022 with think tank fellows, military planners, and congressional staffers, The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will likely struggle to address escalation vectors almost certain to push the current war in Ukraine beyond the country’s borders. This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events: (1) a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in southeast Poland, and (2) Russian use of chemical weapons along the Polish border while simultaneously mobilizing to threaten the Baltics. As the conflict crossed a key threshold and risked becoming a regional war, most participants found a natural pull to escalate in each scenario despite limited expectations of achieving a position of competitive advantage. Analyzing how individuals and teams approached decision making provides insights on rethinking escalation models in the twenty-first century and taking advantage of new concepts and capabilities to better support signaling during a crisis.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

789. Localizing Humanitarian Action in Africa

Author:
Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Kurtzer Jacob D., and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The international humanitarian community is increasingly focusing on the need for local and national actors to lead humanitarian response and recovery efforts in conflict-affected or disaster-prone regions, especially in the Global South. Local and national actors responding to crises remain severely underfunded, particularly in Africa, where civil society organizations (CSOs) receive insufficient funding from African and international actors alike. African funders reportedly directed 9 percent of large gifts to African CSOs between 2010 and 2019, while non-African philanthropists provided 14 percent of their funding to these groups. The United States is the world’s largest foreign assistance donor, having contributed $35.5 billion in overseas development assistance (ODA) in 2020. Much of this aid goes to sub-Saharan Africa, including $8.5 billion to 47 countries and 8 regional programs in 2020. Yet national and local organizations receive little of this funding directly. At the same time, Washington has repeatedly signaled a commitment to the “localization” of humanitarian aid, or the shift of decisionmaking power, program implementation, and resources to local and national actors. Yet localized humanitarian assistance in Africa has failed to materialize. Bureaucratic and regulatory hurdles, as well as geostrategic calculations, pose a challenge to localization efforts. African voices are excluded from the decisionmaking landscape—in donor discussions and localization efforts themselves—resulting in a gap in cultural competency. The conversation on localization in Africa cannot be limited to the African continent; it must occur in donor capitals, with African voices leading the dialogue. To achieve sustainable localization, the U.S. and African policy landscapes should resolve bureaucratic obstacles and shift an exclusionary aid paradigm to one that is inclusive and builds on existing successes.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Intervention, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa

790. Strengthening a Transnational Semiconductor Industry

Author:
James Lewis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
If data is the new oil, it could be said that chips are the new steel—a fundamental component of national power similar to the foundational role steel production played in the industrial age. As such, semiconductor chips are a natural focus for government intervention and support to accelerate growth and build secure supply chains. The specific goals for U.S. semiconductor policy are to increase reliability and trust in supply, reinforce all elements of chip-making capacity, and reduce China’s role in the supply chain. Chip production is based on complex, globally distributed, specialized supply chains involving many stages in production, including specialized materials, production equipment, design and related software, fabrication, testing, and packaging. In some stages of production, labor costs are important; in others, it is capital costs because a cutting-edge fabrication plant, or fab, can cost more than $12 billion. Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Japan, Singapore, and China are the leading chip-producing nations. There are also important facilities (often subsidiaries of a leading producer) in Europe, Southeast Asia, South America, and Israel. This global distribution has led some to push for greater production in the United States, but trying to “reshore” a global supply chain spread across many countries would be counterproductive if the goal is a reliable and more productive supply chain. The problem is China, not global production. The politics of the chip industry are generally favorable to the United States. One leading producer, South Korea, is a treaty ally and faces less risk of disruption from China than does Taiwan. Another leading producer, Japan, is one of the most important U.S. security partners and, with the United States, dominates the production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). ASML, another leading producer of SME, based in the Netherlands, is also an important ally. Singapore, while it would prefer not to be caught in a battle between giants, is also a dependable partner. These countries share democratic values and in many instances are treaty allies. The global distribution of chip-making in countries friendly to the United States is an advantage.
Topic:
Science and Technology, transnationalism, Emerging Technology, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

791. CCP Inc. in West Africa: How Chinese Party-State Actors Secured Critical Minerals in Guinea

Author:
Briana Boland, Lauren Maranto, and Jude Blanchette
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This CCP Inc. case study explores how Chinese diplomatic, regulatory, financial, and commercial actors work in concert to secure critical minerals in the West African nation of Guinea. Efforts in Guinea to mine bauxite and iron ore, the primary inputs for aluminum and steel, illuminate Beijing’s conduits for influencing and supporting its geo-economic objectives. Examining one key Chinese player in Guinea’s mining sector, this study highlights state actors’ connections with nominally private Chinese companies and the importance of partnerships with state-owned enterprises for building costly infrastructure. Across multiple bauxite and iron ore mining ventures, Chinese diplomatic support and state financing provided conduits to help further favored projects and increase Chinese companies’ access to Guinea’s mining industries.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Natural Resources, Hegemony, Mining, and Superpower
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Guinea

792. Concurrent Crises in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Kurtzer Jacob D., Sierra Ballard, and Hareem Fatima Abdullah
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The greater Horn of Africa, stretching from southern Ethiopia to northern Kenya and Somalia, is experiencing its worst drought in four decades. A fourth consecutive failed rainy season caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon has generated extreme drought conditions that have curtailed agricultural production, destroyed crops, and killed more than 3 million livestock, threatening the livelihoods and lives of millions of farmers and pastoralists. Across the region, more than 20 million people currently face starvation, and nearly 6 million children under the age of five are acutely malnourished. The number of individuals impacted by acute food insecurity will likely increase to over 25 million by mid-2022, hitting conflict-affected Ethiopia and Somalia the hardest, potentially leading to widespread malnutrition and starvation. Droughts in the region are not new, but they are becoming more frequent and severe, resulting in longer-term impacts. Climate models forecast the upcoming October–December rains to underperform, meaning the region will likely see an unprecedented five-season drought. Rangelands are unable to recover from increasing drought cycles and pastoralist livelihoods may no longer be viable in many areas. The current drought is the latest of many crises afflicting the Horn, including the Covid-19 pandemic, devastating floods, and locust outbreaks. The Horn is also one of the most conflict-affected regions of the world. Each country in the Horn has experienced some measure of political strife for decades. Conflict and violence have compounded the effects of climatic shocks on affected populations by creating additional needs and barriers for international humanitarian organizations and frontline local actors. Women and girls are bearing the brunt of these concurrent crises due to prevailing gender inequalities, which hinder their participation in decisionmaking mechanisms and humanitarian response and recovery efforts, undermining the integration of local actors in humanitarian action. While resilience-building efforts have made some progress in mitigating impacts from drought, they are not yet scaled to the overwhelming need. The combined effects of the climatic and political crises necessitate both an emergency humanitarian response and the implementation of long-term climate adaptation and resilience strategies.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Disaster Management, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa

793. Donor Funding Models for Innovation: A Review

Author:
Conor M. Savoy
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Donors have rhetorically supported the importance of innovation in global development, but the level of resources committed has seldom matched the level of this rhetoric. There are clear barriers to expanding funding for the innovation ecosystem: (1) innovation remains under-resourced, and models that are providing clear results are not properly supported; (2) pathways to scale remain limited because of the total funding available; and (3) the risk appetite of donors remains too conservative to properly support and scale innovation. Recent impact evaluations suggest that innovations supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Development Innovation Ventures (DIV) and the Global Innovation Fund (GIF) have yielded impressive returns. But more importantly, innovation also leverages scarce funding resources and engages with locally based partners.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Innovation, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

794. Allied Smart Cities

Author:
Matthew Goodman, Akhil Thadani, and Matthew Wayland
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Population growth and rapid urbanization are reshaping global networks and driving demand for digital infrastructure beyond advanced economies. These trends are accelerating U.S.-China commercial competition in third markets, where governments must decide which communication and technology governance systems to adopt. Developing a high-standard smart city model can help to successfully rejuvenate domestic infrastructure, close the global digital divide, and promote democratic values in digital infrastructure.
Topic:
Urban, Cities, Sustainability, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:
Global Focus

795. The Lessons of the Afghan War That No One Will Want to Learn

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
At the best of times, the U.S. tends to rush out heavily politicized studies of the lessons of war that are more political ammunition than serious analyses, and while these are followed by long formal studies that are often quite good, they then are often ignored as the flow of events moves on. These are scarcely the best of times. The collapse of the Afghan government and forces has occurred during one of the most partisan periods in American politics, followed by a totally different kind of conflict in Ukraine, all while the U.S. focus on terrorism and regional conflicts that began with 9/11 has been replaced by a focus on competition with nuclear superpowers like Russia and China. The very fact that the war stretched out over two decades has meant that much of the focus on lessons has ignored the first half or more of the war, and the almost inevitable chaos following the U.S. decision to withdraw has led to the focus on the collapse of the Afghan forces and the central government rather than on the actual conduct of the war – and few within the U.S. government now want to rake over the list of past mistakes that turned an initial tactical victory into a massive grand strategic defeat.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

796. Cyber War and Ukraine

Author:
James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This is a preliminary review of cyber operations in the Ukraine conflict based on publicly available information. Ukraine was not the first “cyber war”—the term itself makes little sense—but it was the first major conflict involving large-scale cyber operations. The so-far inept Russian invasion, where cyber operations have provided little benefit, raises questions about the balance between defense and offense in cyberspace, the utility of offensive cyber operations, and the requirements for planning and coordination. Better-than-expected Ukrainian defenses seem to be one hallmark of this invasion and the primary reason why Russian cyber efforts have had limited effect. It is likely that Ukraine, forewarned by Russian cyber actions that began as early as 2014, was better prepared as a result. It was also assisted in its cyber defense by friendly countries and private actors with whom it had developed cooperative relationships before the conflict. This preparation allowed it to deflect many Russian offensive cyber operations, suggesting that a well-prepared and energetic defense can have the advantage over offense in cyberspace. Russia had previously used cyberattacks against Ukraine to destroy or damage infrastructure and data. It attempted to do so again in 2022. Based on publicly available information, Russia launched a broad cyber campaign shortly before the invasion (see the appendix for a list of known events). Some reporting showed a huge increase in exploits on the first day. The intent appears to have been to create disorder and overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. Russia sought to disrupt services and install destructive malware on Ukrainian networks included phishing, denial of service, and taking advantage of software vulnerabilities. One company identified eight different families of destructive software used by Russia in these attacks. The primary targets were Ukrainian government websites, energy and telecom service providers, financial institutions, and media outlets, but the cyberattacks encompassed most critical sectors. This was a wide-ranging attack using the full suite of Russian cyber capabilities to disrupt Ukraine, but it was not a success. Russia’s most significant cyber success so far was the disruption of the Viasat Inc’s KA-SAT satellite. This created significant damage that spread beyond Ukraine but ultimately did not provide military advantage to Russia. The attack may have been intended to be part of a larger, coordinated cyberattack that proved unsuccessful, or the Russians may not have expected the rapid restoration of service that was provided with outside assistance. The metric for Viasat and for other actions is not whether a cyberattack is effective in terms of network penetration or the disruption of services or data, but whether its effect helps achieve in this case, the occupation of Ukraine and the elimination of its elected government. By this metric, the Viasat attack was not a success.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

797. The Geopolitics of Hydrogen in the Indo-Pacific Region

Author:
Jane Nakano
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Large energy consumers in the Indo-Pacific region and their traditional energy suppliers are examining the potential role of clean hydrogen in energy systems as well as their own potential roles in hydrogen supply chains. Several Asian governments are leading the charge in creating a clean hydrogen economy by releasing and executing hydrogen strategies and funding new projects, while others are beginning to articulate visions and strategies. This report surveys national visions and strategies of leading Asian economies and their traditional energy suppliers and presents key implications of clean hydrogen development in the Indo-Pacific region. The report further offers recommendations on the role the United States could play in this rising market, including ensuring resilience and robustness in clean hydrogen supply chains, recognizing the energy security benefit of clean hydrogen exports from the United States, and ensuring the environmental sustainability in hydrogen value-chain creation.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Environment, Sustainability, and Hydrogen
Political Geography:
Indo-Pacific

798. Genomes: The Era of Purposeful Manipulation Begins

Author:
Carol Kuntz
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The purposeful manipulation of genomes is now possible. Such manipulation has great promise and broad strategic implications; it is creating useful molecules of various sorts and, over time, it could eliminate genetic disease. Like many emerging technologies, genome manipulation could grow into an important economic sector, contributing to a replicating cycle of innovation and enabling the United States to favorably shape its strategic future at home and abroad. Advances in these technologies are fueled by a global commercial and academic community. The United States should ensure that it fully remains a member of that community, but also that key capabilities—such as large, well-curated databases and biofoundries—are created and sustained domestically. The United States needs to rationalize its policy on heritable human genome editing, allowing legitimate types of edits but contributing to international norms against illegitimate ones. A robust biotechnology sector at home would yield many benefits—economic, technological, medical—and provide the critical reservoir of expertise within which national security interests could be secured. The Department of Defense needs to make structural reforms in its approach to emerging technologies, particularly by creating career paths for uniformed practitioners. Otherwise, it will continue failing in its effort to incorporate emerging technologies into its operational concepts, budgets, and programs—leading to diminished capabilities in the United States, particularly as compared to China. In time, falling behind on these key areas of science could lead to many problems, including failures in deterrence and, ultimately, in war.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Medicine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

799. The Need for a New NATO Force Planning Exercise

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Grace Hwang
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
NATO countries have already provided massive amounts of military aid to Ukraine, deployed additional forces to support the NATO countries that share a border with Russia, improved the Alliance’s ability to rapidly deploy forces forward in a crisis, and worked with key powers like Poland to strengthen its capabilities. NATO has accepted Finland and Sweden as future members of the Alliance, and it has made numerous other short-term adjustments to its force posture that enhance its deterrence and defense capabilities. NATO faces a future, however, where it cannot predict how much territory Ukraine will lose and where it must now view Russia as an ongoing major threat at virtually every level from the limited conventional threats Russia poses to the NATO countries on its border to the major increases in its threat of strategic nuclear forces. NATO cannot continue to treat Russia as a potential partner, and that seems to be an unlikely path forward so long as Putin or anyone like him is in power. NATO also cannot ignore the rise in China’s military and economic power or the prospects of closer Russian and Chinese strategic cooperation. The challenge NATO faces goes far beyond Ukraine. The days in which NATO countries could keep taking peace dividends by cutting their forces, failing to modernize, and failing to adopt new forces of tactics and interoperability are over. NATO cannot deal with the Russian threat in terms of half-measures or by continuing to focus on empty and virtually meaningless force goals like spending 2% of national GDP on defense and 20% of defense expenditure on equipment. NATO needs to act now to look far beyond the short-term priorities of the Ukraine conflict. It needs to revitalize its entire force planning progress. It needs to create effective levels of deterrence and defense capability, while it modernizes its forces to deal with radically new requirements like joint all-domain operations (JADO), emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs), new precision-strike capabilities, changes in air and missile warfare and defense, and the revival of Russian naval power and the growth of a Chinese blue-water navy. The Emeritus Chair in Strategy has prepared a report, entitled, The Need for a New NATO Force Planning Exercise, that examines how NATO must approach an effective force planning exercise that can give its new strategy real meaning. This report documents the pointless character of NATO’s present emphasis on burdensharing, and it examines the real-world shifts in spending and forces in NATO since 2014, as well as how these changes have affected the national forces in given sectors of Europe.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

800. North America Is a Region, Too: An Integrated, Phased, and Affordable Approach to Air and Missile Defense for the Homeland

Author:
Tom Karako, Matthew Strohmeyer, Wes Rumbaugh, and Ken Harmon
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
U.S. air and missile defense efforts have long been characterized by a striking dichotomy. Defenses for the homeland have largely focused on long-range ballistic threats, while cruise missile defense and other air defense efforts have focused on regional and force protection applications to the exclusion of the homeland. This compartmentalization assumes that battles in one place will only consist of certain parts of the threat spectrum, and battles elsewhere will consist only of others. That lingering dichotomy creates a vulnerability that near-peer adversaries now seek to exploit. In a sense, the homeland-regional dichotomy ignores the fact that North America is a region, too. As with any other region, attacks on assets in North America could be designed to shape the political and military calculus of U.S. policymakers. This report explores the strategic significance of air and missile defense for the homeland, considers principles informing defense design, and develops and costs an architecture based on those principles.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Homeland Security, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America