Search

Begin New Search Content Type Special Report Publishing Institution Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Publication Year within 3 Years

1. Verifying Nuclear Disarmament: Lessons Learned in South Africa, Iraq and Libya

Author:
Robert E. Kelley
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Inspections in the 1990s and early 2000s in South Africa, Iraq and Libya were designed to discover the details of nuclear weapon programmes and destroy any remnants. As the global norm against nuclear weapons strengthens, the international community may once more require verification of a state’s denuclearization. But success in the three earlier cases does not guarantee success in the next similar task—any future inspection mission must learn from the lessons of the past. This report draws on the unique experience of Robert E. Kelley, a participant in all three past denuclearization efforts. In it, he gives an account of the unique scale and circumstances of each investigation and the different tools and approaches required. By publicly documenting and comparing obstacles and successes in the three cases for the first time, this report gives meaningful and practical insight into the difficult work of disarmament and its verification. It is an essential resource for future inspectors—and all others interested in what real disarmament looks like on the ground.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, South Africa, and North Africa

2. Arms-production Capabilities in the Indo-Pacific Region: Measuring Self-reliance

Author:
Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Xiao Liang, Siemon T. Wezeman, and Ming Sun
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Armed forces in the Indo-Pacific region remain dependent on weapon systems imported from foreign suppliers. This is despite the efforts of many governments in the Indo-Pacific to implement policies that support the development of local arms industrial capabilities with the aim of increasing self-reliance. This report develops three indicators to give a score and regional ranking of self-reliance in arms production to 12 jurisdictions in the Indo-Pacific region: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Viet Nam. Overall, this report contributes to knowledge and debates on armament trends and military modernization in the Indo-Pacific. In a region where tensions among neighbours are rising, it further contributes to transparency with regard to levels of self-reliance in domestic arms production, allowing for an independent assessment of the region’s respective arms industries.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Indo-Pacific

3. Cyber Posture Trends in China, Russia, the United States and the European Union

Author:
Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Current understanding of the cyber postures of China, Russia, the United States and the European Union (EU) merits re-evaluation. It is often assumed that China and Russia are aligned, yet this is not always the case. Unlike Russia, which has an ongoing focus on information security, China’s official documents incorporate both information security and cybersecurity concerns that are similar to those of the EU and the USA. Moreover, while often paired, the EU and the USA have differing regulatory structures in cyberspace. Further, both actors increasingly mirror Chinese and Russian concerns about the impact of information warfare on domestic stability. By examining key trends in each actor’s cyber posture, this SIPRI Research Report identifies points of convergence and divergence. Its conclusions will inform a broader SIPRI project that maps cyber posture trajectories and explores trilateral cyber dynamics among China, Russia and the USA to assist the EU in navigating future cyber escalation and enhancing global cyber stability.
Topic:
European Union, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Information Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America

4. Autonomous Weapon Systems and International Humanitarian Law: Identifying Limits and the Required Type and Degree of Human–Machine Interaction

Author:
Dr Vincent Boulanin, Netta Goussac, and Laura Bruun
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Compliance with international humanitarian law (IHL) is recognized as a critical benchmark for assessing the acceptability of autonomous weapon systems (AWS). However, in certain key respects, how and to what extent existing IHL rules provide limits on the development and use of AWS remains either subject to debate or underexplored. This report aims to help states form and express their views on the legal provisions that already do, or should, govern the development and use of AWS, particularly with respect to the required type and degree of human–machine interaction. It maps (a) what limits IHL already places on the development and use of AWS; (b) what IHL demands from users of AWS to perform and satisfy IHL obligations, whether the obligations are of a state, an individual or both; and (c) threshold questions concerning the type and degree of human–machine interaction required for IHL compliance. In its findings and recommendations, the report does not pre-judge the policy response that should regulate AWS. Instead, it aims to provide an analytical framework for states and experts to assess how the normative and operational framework regulating the development and use of AWS may need to be clarified and developed further.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Weapons, Disarmament, Autonomy, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: Application of the Risk-assessment Criteria

Author:
Paul Beijer
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
A central element of the 2013 Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is the risk-assessment criteria in articles 6 and 7. The flexibility in the wording of the two articles has required efforts to reach common interpretations of the criteria in order to lessen the scope for different assessment outcomes. These efforts, as well as improved and aligned national practices, will enhance the treaty’s long-term impact. While there are limits to how far some states parties will want to go, there is a genuine preparedness to look at ways to increase the effectiveness of the ATT that should be encouraged and supported. This is one of a series of five papers that are being produced as part of a wider project aimed at taking stock of specific aspects of the ATT—its scope, the application of the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and international assistance to support ATT implementation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Arms Trade, and Risk
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. The World Food Programme’s Contribution to Improving the Prospects for Peace in Lebanon

Author:
Kristina Tschunkert
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report aims to provide a better understanding of the World Food Programme’s (WFP) contribution to improving the prospects for peace in Lebanon. Specifically, the report investigates where and how WFP’s cash-based transfer (CBT) interventions in the country make potential peace contributions and looks at how these contributions could be further developed. The findings are based on a review of programme documents, in-depth interviews with a range of stakeholders and field visits to project sites in Lebanon in 2021. The findings suggest that WFP’s CBT interventions can—and do—positively contribute to improving the prospects for peace in Lebanon. However, the conflict and peacebuilding environment in Lebanon is extremely complex and rife with uncertainties. With this in mind, the report emphasizes the importance of taking conflict sensitivity concerns into account and provides 13 recommendations on how WFP’s contribution to peace in Lebanon could be enhanced.
Topic:
Security, Food, Peace, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

7. Mitigating Humanitarian Impact in a Complex Sanctions Environment: The European Union and the Sanctions Regimes against Iran

Author:
Keith A. Preble and Kolja Brockmann
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The combination of sanctions on Iran imposed by the United States, the United Nations and the European Union (EU) in response to, among others, nuclear and ballistic missile activities and human rights violations provides for a sanctions environment that is highly complex and difficult to navigate for exporters, financial institutions and humanitarian actors. Particularly in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is renewed attention to the humanitarian impact of sanctions, especially in the case of Iran which became one of the flashpoints of the pandemic. The focus of this paper is on the array of overlapping sanctions and the mitigation of humanitarian impact, with a particular focus on EU sanctions policy and instruments. The paper outlines key milestones and phases in the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the three main sanctioning actors, the USA, the UN and the EU, thus demonstrating the complexity and the at times coordinated or contradictory nature of the different sanctions. It then explores the humanitarian impact of sanctions on Iran by discussing several illustrative indicators and the impact of sanctions on the provision of international humanitarian aid. The paper reviews existing mechanisms to mitigate the humanitarian impact of sanctions and how they could be improved. In the context of the sanctions of Iran, but also beyond, the paper finds that there is a clear need to further strengthen compliance, enforcement and coordination of EU sanctions, including in the context of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It concludes by providing specific recommendations for the EU and its member states on improving the effective use of sanctions and reducing their humanitarian impact, including through strengthening key instruments and assessment processes, better coordination with the USA and more engagement with humanitarian actors.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Sanctions, European Union, Arms Trade, Disarmament, and Exports
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

8. Democracy in a Post-Covid World

Author:
Madeleine Albright
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The SIPRI Lecture is an annual event focusing on major themes in peace and security. The event provides a platform for prominent global thought leaders sharing the values underpinning SIPRI, its research and other activities. The third SIPRI Lecture, which was held virtually on 24 May 2021, was delivered by HE Dr Madeleine Albright and focused on the theme of ‘Democracy in a Post-Covid World’. The lecture highlighted ways in which the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftershocks have transformed the world. It also stressed the importance of placing democratic values and international cooperation at the centre of any post-pandemic strategy to create a more secure, stable, healthy and prosperous world.
Topic:
Security, Development, Democracy, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Women in Multilateral Peace Operations in 2021: What is the State of Play?

Author:
Claudia Pfeifer, Timo Smit, and Jaïr van der Lijn
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (2000) on Women, Peace and Security stresses the importance of women’s full and equal participation in all efforts towards maintaining and promoting peace and security, including peace operations. More than 20 years after the resolution was adopted, some progress has been achieved in improving women’s representation in multilateral peace operations, but there are still gaps to fill. Specific achievements include the UN and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) launching gender parity strategies and establishing specific targets for women’s participation in their respective personnel. At the same time, the European Union (EU) affirmed its political commitment by increasing women’s representation in Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions. This booklet provides a data-driven analysis of UN peace operations, OSCE field operations and EU CSDP missions and operations. It uses data visualizations to provide annual snapshots and averages of women’s representation in leadership roles, overall personnel numbers and member state contributions. The booklet supports the efforts of multilateral organizations and their member states to increase the representation of women in peace operations. Having a richer, data-oriented picture of women’s participation in peace operations will help multilateral organizations to identify gender-parity strategies. Finally, it enhances transparency and provides insights into recent trends and developments in peace operations.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, Women, Conflict, Multilateralism, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. A Reassessment of the European Union’s Response to Climate-related Security Risks

Author:
Anniek Barnhoorn and Elise Remling
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This SIPRI Insights paper examines how climate-related security risks (CRSRs) are framed and responded to within different bodies of the European Union (EU). The paper finds that CRSRs are framed differently across the EU and that the kinds of actions proposed vary. Although this is not necessarily a problem, a key challenge is that across the EU the prescriptions for addressing CRSRs largely focus on long-term prevention in the form of climate mitigation, on the one hand, and reactive crisis responses, on the other. As a result, the substantial climate change that is already locked in and its related security risks are currently not being addressed. Similarly, this focus overlooks the varied and often complex ways in which climate change can increase risks. The paper concludes that the EU needs to broaden its understanding of and response to CRSRs if it wants to take—and inspire—more effective action to reduce such risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Risk
Political Geography:
Europe and Arctic

11. South Asia’s Nuclear Challenges: Interlocking Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States

Author:
Petr Topychkanov and Lora Saalman
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report provides an overview of views on nuclear postures and escalation affecting South Asia, based on 119 research interviews conducted in 2020 with military, nuclear, political and regional experts from India, Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States. The publication also builds on the findings from a virtual workshop that SIPRI hosted on 8 and 9 December 2020 on ‘Nuclear challenges in South Asia: Views from India, Pakistan, China, Russia, Australia, New Zealand and the USA’. These discussions revealed a variety of interlocking insights on such issues as no first use, lowered nuclear thresholds, conventional and nuclear entanglement and emerging technologies that are shaping strategic stability. The publication consists of five country-focused sections that explore nuclear postures, strategic technologies and escalatory risks, as well as conclusions that offer building blocks for the next steps on engagement. This report was prepared in the framework of the SIPRI project Assessing Nuclear Deterrence Risks and Challenges in South Asia, generously supported by the German Federal Foreign Office.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, South Asia, India, and United States of America

12. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Mali

Author:
Farah Hegazi, Florian Krampe, and Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Climate-related security risks are changing the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts are taking place. Following a similar assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia in 2019, this SIPRI Policy Paper offers another glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the context of climate change, this time by providing an in-depth assessment of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Climate change in Mali has affected natural resource-based livelihoods and contributed to undermining human security in a context of conflict and weak governance. Furthermore, the compound character of climate change is an increasingly strong factor that reshapes social, political and economic contexts, thereby potentially amplifying local grievances and marginalization. These interactions all contribute to hindering MINUSMA’s efforts to support peace and stability in Mali. MINUSMA, however, explicitly and implicitly responds to climate-related security risks. For example, its divisions address natural resource-related conflicts, supporting peace and stability in a context where natural resources are often crucial to livelihoods and human security. MINUSMA also works to reduce its own potential negative environmental impact. Nevertheless, it faces three main limitations in addressing climate-related security risks: prioritization of the issue vis-à-vis the mandate, limited capacity within the mission, and coordination challenges between the mission and the UN Country Team. By analysing how climate change affects MINUSMA’s mandate, and the mission’s responses to it, the insight offered in this paper suggests the need for increased knowledge, training and prioritization surrounding climate security. This applies not only to MINUSMA, but also to other missions located in areas of high climate change exposure, and more generally to the broader UN system.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, United Nations, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

13. New Technologies and Nuclear Disarmament: Outlining a Way Forward

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This report sheds light on the impact of recent military-technological advancements on nuclear deterrence and disarmament. Noting that progress towards multilateral disarmament is hardly possible without prior and significant reductions in the largest nuclear weapon arsenals, the report views the resumption of bilateral arms control between Russia and the United States as the most important step towards disarmament at the present moment. It argues that these two countries should move away from their cold war era nuclear doctrines, which seek an ability to win nuclear wars, towards a policy of ‘minimal nuclear deterrence’, that is focused on deterring a nuclear attack. In line with doctrinal changes, further cuts in Russian and US nuclear stockpiles could be achieved by removing nuclear weapons from regional conflict dynamics, meaning that they would no longer serve as a deterrent against conventional aggression. Such a change would help to reduce nuclear risks without undermining regional deterrence, as each side already has robust conventional forces comprised of precision-strike weapons and other advanced military systems. At the same time, the report notes that progress towards nuclear disarmament would be complicated by long-range precision-strike weapons and strategic missile defences, which have raised the bar for credible nuclear deterrence by creating uncertainty about US adversaries’ second-strike capabilities. Lowering that bar and eventually reducing the perceived need for nuclear deterrence will require creative arms control diplomacy, including limits on strategic missile defences; stronger norms against both nuclear and conventional aggression; as well as a clear stigma against nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Russia and United States of America

14. Food Systems in Conflict and Peacebuilding Settings: Pathways and Interconnections

Author:
Caroline Delgado, Vongai Murugani, and Kristina Tschunkert
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Failing food systems and the resultant increasing world hunger are among the most pressing issues of our time. With 155 million people acutely food insecure and nearly 30 million people on the verge of starvation in 2020, the world is far off track to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) by 2030. Violent conflict remained the main driver of global hunger in 2020. Conflict has a direct negative impact on food systems and resultant levels of food security. Moreover, heightened food insecurity may create grievances that can escalate into instability and violent conflict. The increases in both acute food insecurity and violent conflict demand urgent and decisive action. The objectives of this three-part policy paper series are to emphasize the urgency of addressing the relationship between conflict and food insecurity and to point out existing opportunities to do so. This paper, the first in the series, aims, firstly, to inform policymakers of the intricate relationships between food security and violent conflict, secondly, to alert policymakers to the potential ability of food systems to contribute to peace, and then to highlight the action required to enhance this potential. The paper concludes with four recommendations intended to help guide more effective preventative and mitigating action to limit (and ultimately avoid) the long-term adverse consequences of violent conflict for food security and exploit food security’s potential to foster peace.
Topic:
Security, Development, Food, Conflict, Peace, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. A New Estimate of China’s Military Expenditure

Author:
Nan Tian and Fei Su
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
China publishes a national defence budget each year. In 2019 it reached 1.2 trillion yuan (US$175 billion). However, this figure does not account for all of China’s military spending. To provide a more accurate representation of China’s spending, SIPRI’s estimate—based on an analysis made in 1999—includes other items in addition to the official defence budget. Given China’s accelerating military modernization and reforms in recent years, the existing estimate of China’s military spending deserves a reassessment. This SIPRI report provides a comprehensive new analysis of the financial resources China dedicates to military purposes. Using publicly available sources in both English and Chinese, the report presents a new estimate of Chinese military expenditure. The new estimate—1660 billion yuan ($240 billion) in 2019—is around 142 billion yuan ($21 billion) less than the old SIPRI estimate. Although the new approach to estimating Chinese military expenditure improves on the old method, limited public transparency in budgeting on specific categories is still a cause of concern. Future research should focus on publicly available Chinese-language sources as there is still scope to improve the precision of the new estimate.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Spending, and Transparency
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16. Supporting Small Arms and Light Weapons Controls through Development Assistance: The Case of sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Giovanna Maletta and Lucile Robin
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) has had a negative impact on conflict, security and development. In order to help states to address the multifaceted challenges posed by the proliferation of these weapons, some states as well as regional and international organizations have established a series of funding instruments and assistance programmes that support or provide SALW control-related assistance. In view of the recognized linkages between SALW proliferation, security and development, official development assistance (ODA) has progressively become an eligible source of funding in this field. However, there remains limited clarity on which assistance activities have been supported through development spending. A comprehensive assessment of the use of ODA to support SALW control-related assistance could help donors, policymakers and interested stakeholders to understand how assistance policies have adjusted to the recognition of the link between conventional arms control and sustainable development made in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Focusing on SALW control-related assistance provided in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study and comparing information included in separate data sets compiled by SIPRI and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, this report attempts to provide information on which relevant activities have been supported through ODA in this region. It shows that only a limited number of donors have used ODA to support SALW control-related assistance and that they have different practices in the way they report on the use of these funds. It also outlines the challenges that make mapping this assistance a particularly difficult exercise.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

17. Promoting China–European Union Cooperation on Green and Sustainable Finance

Author:
Ian Anthony, Jingdong Yuan, and Sun Xia
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Energy transition is an essential element of the global effort to meet the objectives set out in the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change. China and the European Union (EU) have agreed to work together to help deliver the financing needed to achieve energy transition, but more is needed. To promote China–EU co-operation, this SIPRI Policy Brief recommends: (a) exploring a dedicated China–EU green finance initiative; (b) presenting a joint China–EU proposal on clear definitions and standards of sustainable green financing to the International Partnership on Sustainable Finance; (c) generating a joint curriculum to train staff in multilateral development banks, private investment banks, insurance companies and green banks; (d) pursuing joint finance for projects that find private capital difficult to attract; and (e) deploying independent evaluation teams to scrutinize how rating systems are applied in energy transition projects.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Finance, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Peace
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia