Content Type: Special Report / Publishing Institution: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE / Publication Year: and within 25 Years

1. Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine

Author:: Dmytro Boyarchuk
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Ukraine has been a stellar example of a little reform going a long way. First invaded by Russia in 2014, the Ukraine of 2022 was a different country, with more resilience, more ability, and more depth. As it pushes to repel the Russian aggressor, it is never too early to think about how Ukraine can continue its reform process and become a state that is free of Russia, economically strong, and a model for policy reform. The ways in which Ukraine can attain this goal are contained in the economic roadmap, “Economic Priorities in Post-war Ukraine,” produced by Ukrainian experts and world-class policy advisors under CASE-Center for Social Research and CASE Ukraine and funded by agencies from around Europe and the United States. This report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction, as well as enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. Over 30 years of independence, Ukraine has launched almost all of the necessary reforms to build and develop a market economy. In 2014, Ukraine signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, and substantial progress has been demonstrated since then. However, the country fought against a legacy of start-stop reforms and inattention to major objectives such as building the rule of law and encouraging private sector competition. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, it had been making progress in institutional reforms but still had far to go. This report addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law, a problem lasting for three decades. Our team of experts propose specific mechanisms to make the transition to a country which respects the rule of law, including ways to improve the judiciary, respect property rights, and encourage private sector competition. The report also examines the question on how the Ukrainian government can attract funding and rebuild the country after the war is over, discussing ways in which the EU and the donor community can be involved. The eventual end of the war also provides Ukraine with a unique opportunity to leap ahead in the European integration process and to finish its institutional reforms. With Ukraine now a candidate for EU membership, the prospects of the integration process, the unprecedented support for integration with the EU in Ukrainian society and the continued support of the West, present Ukraine with a way forward and overcoming the obstacles that have delayed, stalled, or even caused the abandonment of reforms in the past.
Topic:: Development, Reform, Economy, Institutions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2. Excess liquidity in the euro area: developments and implications

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The excess liquidity in the euro area is a product of a long period of quantitative easing. It changed the operational framework of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy from the scarce reserves system (SRS) to the abundant reserves system (ARS). To eliminate excess liquidity and return to the SRS, the ECB must intensify quantitative tightening, which is also essential for successful disinflation. Fiscal adjustment can help in this process and mitigate the risk of financial instability. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 25 September 2023.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Finance, European Central Bank, and Liquidity
Political Geography:: Europe

3. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?

Author:: Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

4. In search of new opportunities. Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic

Author:: Agnieszka Kulesa, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz, Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský, and Andrei Yeliseyeu
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: We are pleased to present the report on circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between four research institutions – Warsaw-based CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, CASE Belarus, the Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic), and the Institute of Economic Research, SAS (Slovakia). The partners teamed up to implement the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia”. Additionally, Youth Labour Rights, an NGO based in Belarus, was responsible for launching and maintaining a website addressed to Belarusians interested in working in Poland, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic. The implementation of this project was possible thanks to co-financing from the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration. Circular migration flows between the countries examined in the report were affected by two events that occurred in 2020. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus caused three major shocks – to public health systems, to states’ economies, and to the global financial system. The pandemic also temporarily closed borders and essentially stopped international migration. These measures, together with the border restrictions and lockdown measures which followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, have affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic as well. Surprisingly, in the case of Poland, however, this influence was limited in time and related only to the first months of the pandemic (March-April 2020). In fact, 2020 was the sixth consecutive year since 2014 during which the number of documents issued to Belarusian nationals as part of the simplified system of employing foreign nationals in Poland increased. Longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on circular migration patterns and related policies are yet to be seen, but preliminary observations are presented in the respective chapters. The second event that occurred in 2020 which affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic was the Belarusian presidential election held in August. The announcement of the official results, according to which Alexander Lukashenko could commence his sixth term in office as the president of Belarus, provoked political demonstrations and mass anti-government protests across the country. As a result, officially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Belarusian government closed land border crossings for people wishing to leave the country from 21 December 2020 until further notice. This issue, as it is rather recent and thus difficult to evaluate fully, is just signalled in the report. The report is divided into five main parts. It starts with the executive summary, which discusses the concept of circular migration and synthesises the main findings of the country chapters. The country-specific section includes a chapter concentrated on Belarus, followed by chapters dedicated to the Visegrad Group countries under study – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Each country chapter ends with a set of recommendations addressed to policy makers. Notes on the contributors can be found at the end of the report.
Topic:: Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Belarus

5. Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

6. Turning away from globalization? Trade wars and the rules of competition in global trade: Implications for the EU

Author:: Jan J. Michałek and Przemyslaw Wozniak
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit. Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

7. Does Low Inflation Pose a Risk to Economic Growth and Central Banks Reputation?

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Inflation, and Central Bank
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Is a bubble inflating on Poland’s housing market?

Author:: Adam Czerniak and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The year 2019 brought double-digit growth in Polish housing prices, for both new and existing homes. In some cities, real prices for residential real estate have reached the highest levels in history, even higher than at the peak of the boom in 2008. As a result, some are saying that there is a growing price bubble. But thus far no research has been produced that would comprehensively verify this hypothesis on the basis of data from 2006-2019. This work aims to fill that gap. This is exceptionally important, because assessing the likelihood that a housing price bubble is emerging is key for the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy in Poland. Because if we’re really dealing with growth in macroeconomic imbalances, then taking pre-emptive action to limit further price growth and prepare the economy (including the financial sector) for a potential collapse in housing prices is essential for limiting fluctuations in growth.
Topic:: Markets, Economic Growth, Trade, and Housing
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

9. Our Europe: 15 Years of Poland in the European Union

Author:: Jerzy Wilkin, Joanna Konieczna-Sałamatin, Mirosława Marody, Maja Sawicka, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, Jan J. Michałek, Andrzej Halesiak, Stanisława Golinowska, Irena Topińska, Anna Fornalczyk, Richard Woodward, Grzegorz Gorzelak, Andrzej Kwieciński, Katarzyna Zawalińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Anna Malinowska, Wiesława Kozek, Magdalena Kąkol, Maciej Nowicki, Grzegorz Wiśniewski, Andrzej Cylwik, Tomasz Komornicki, Urszula Sztanderska, Jacek Liwiński, Dorota Ilczuk, Anna Karpińska, Przemysław Kowalski, Mateusz Szczurek, Stanisław Gomułka, and Paweł Wojciechowski
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration. This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Topic:: Climate Change, Demographics, Energy Policy, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, Social Policy, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

10. Estonian corporate tax: Lessons for Poland

Author:: Aleksandr Łożykowski, Anna Leszczyłowska, and Dmitri Jegorov
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
Topic:: Governance, Tax Systems, Investment, Fiscal Policy, and Corporate Tax
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Poland, and Estonia

11. The European Union: State of play and prospects

Author:: Janusz Lewandowski
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: "Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski, the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

12. The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy

Author:: Adam Śmietanka, Anna Malinowska, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report, prepared by a team of economists from CASE, is a continuation of the 2018 analysis The significance of the tobacco product manufacturing to Poland’s economy commissioned by JTI Polska Sp. z o.o. The purpose of the research whose results are presented in this report is to assess the economic significance, challenges and development prospects of the tobacco product manufacturing, trade and distribution sector in Poland. In the report we analyze a cross-section of the tobacco industry and its significance for the economy as a whole. We also present the significant barriers to the sector’s growth, i.e. the illicit market, costs of compliance and regulatory uncertainty, and we also model the long-term macroeconomic effects of potential changes in the industry. To the best of our knowledge, at the moment this is the most comprehensive economic study of the sector.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Tobacco
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

13. Increasing the International Role of the Euro: A Long Way to Go

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Topic:: European Union, Economic Growth, Central Bank, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

14. Is the economy doomed to a long recession?

Author:: Andrzej Halesiak and Andrzej Rzońca
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic. A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economy, Economic Growth, Crisis Management, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report

Author:: Adam Śmietanka, Grzegorz Poniatowski, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported. In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019. Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion). The Policy Gap and its components remained stable. For the EU overall, the average Policy Gap level was 44.24 percent. Of this, in 2018, 10.07 percentage points were due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap) and 34.17 were due to the application of exemptions without the right to deduct. The results of the econometric analysis show that the VAT Gap is influenced by a group of factors relating to the current economic conditions, institutional environment, and economic structure as well as to the measures and actions of tax administrations. Out of a broad set of tested variables, GDP growth and general government balance appeared to explain a substantial set of VAT Gap variation across time and countries. Within the control of tax administrations, share of IT expenditure proved to have the highest statistical significance in explaining the size of the VAT Gap. In addition, the VAT Gap appeared to be inter-related with the values of risky imports of goods, indicating the role of fraud in driving the overall share of the VAT Gap. Since the COVID-19 recession will likely have a dire impact on the EU economies, the VAT Gap in 2020 is forecasted to increase. If the EU economy contracts by 7.4 percent in 2020 and the general government deficit jumps as forecasted in the Spring Forecast of the European Commission, the Gap could increase by 4.1 percentage points year-over year up to 13.7 percent and EUR 164 billion in 2020. The hike in 2020 could be more pronounced than the gradual decrease of the Gap observed over the three preceding years. Moreover, a return to the VAT Gap levels observed in 2018 and 2019 will take time and require significant action from tax administrations. This Report has been written for the European Commission, DG TAXUD, for the project TAXUD/2019/AO-14, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, and is a follow-up to the seven reports published between 2013 and 2019.
Topic:: European Union, Fiscal Policy, VAT, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

16. The Rule of Law and its Social Reception as Determinants of Economic Development. A Comparative Analysis of Poland and Germany

Author:: Christopher Hartwell, Kateryna Karunska, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Maria Krell
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland. But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020). Against this background, this study examines the rule of law as a determinant of economic development in Germany and Poland from both the de jure and de facto perspectives.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Rule of Law, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Germany

17. Guidebook: Direction: An Efficient State

Author:: Gvantsa Ichkiti, Hasmik Grigoryan, Agnieszka Kulesa, Salome Kandelaki, and Stanislav Bieliei
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The Polish Decentralisation Guidebook aims at presenting in a synthetic way the experience of Poland regarding the re-introduction of local government and the decentralisation process since 1989. Its main goal is to provide representatives of central and regional authorities, experts, and representatives of opinion-forming circles in Armenia and Georgia with relevant information and knowledge. The idea of the authors of this Guidebook was to facilitate mutual learning between the countries, the exchange of good practices, and lessons learned. The territorial division of Armenia was established in 1995. Now the country has two levels of administrative division – regions and communities – and the local self-government is exercised only on the level of communities. In the case of Georgia, administrative reform aimed at introducing local government started in 1997. Currently, self-government in Georgia is exercised on just one level – in municipalities (including self-governing cities and self-governing communities). Poland’s experience, in which local government units are established on all three levels of territorial division, might be useful to Armenia and Georgia, if they wish to further reform their territorial administration and pursue decentralisation. This Guidebook is comprised of four main parts. The first part is devoted to the presentation of the Polish experience in five selected areas: Empowerment of local communities Financing of local government units Providing public services Absorption of external funds by local governments Crisis responses The second part is dedicated to the presentation and analysis of needs and main blocking points in decentralisation in Armenia, while the third one concentrates on Georgia. Both of them are structured around the five above-listed areas. The last but very most important section of this Guidebook provides a set of recommendations for Armenia and Georgia based on the Polish experience in introducing local government and decentralisation. The country-specific sections of this Guidebook were prepared mainly on the basis of the results of desk research. This included reviewing the existing literature, relevant state strategies and action plans as well as reports developed by local and international organisations. Key legal acts were also reviewed. In addition, interviews with representatives of local municipalities and other stakeholders were carried out in Armenia and Georgia. This Guidebook was developed as part of the project called ‘Direction: an efficient state. Polish experiences of decentralisation and modernisation, lessons learned for Armenia and Georgia’ co-funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. It is the joint work of three partner institutions: CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research based in Warsaw, the Tbilisi-based Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP), and the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC) from Yerevan.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Governance, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Poland, and Armenia

18. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2019 Final Report

Author:: Adam Śmietanka, Alejandro Esteller Moré, Grzegorz Poniatowski, José María Durán-Cabré, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018. This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses. In 2017, growth in the European Union (EU) continued to accelerate with a combined real GDP growth of 2.5 percent, providing a sound environment for an increase in VAT collections. As a result, VAT revenue increased in all Member States (MS). An increase in the base was the main, but not the only, source for growth. Increase in compliance contributed to an approximate 1.1% increase in VAT revenue. In nominal terms, in 2017, the VAT Gap in EU-28 MS fell to EUR 137.5 billion, down from EUR 145.4 billion. In relative terms, the VAT Gap share of the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) dropped to 11.2 percent in 2017 and is the lowest value in the analysed period of 2013-2017. Fast estimates for 2018 indicate that the downward trend will continue and that VAT Gap will likely fall below EUR 130 billion in 2018. Of the EU-28, the VAT Gap as percentage of the VTTL decreased in 25 countries and increased in three. The biggest declines in the VAT Gap occurred in Malta, Poland, and Cyprus. The smallest Gaps were observed in Cyprus (0.6 percent), Luxembourg (0.7 percent), and Sweden (1.5 percent). The largest Gaps were registered in Romania (35.5 percent), Greece (33.6 percent), and Lithuania (25.3 percent). Overall, half of EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 10.1 percent (see Figure 2.2 and Table 2.1). The Policy Gaps and its components remained stable. The average Policy Gap level was 44.5 percent, out of which 9.6 percentage points are due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates instead of standard rates (the Rate Gap). The countries with the most flat levels of rates in the EU, according to the Rate Gap, are Denmark (0.8 percent) and Estonia (3 percent). On the other side of spectrum are Cyprus (29.6 percent), Malta (16.5 percent), and Poland (14.6 percent). The Exemption Gap, or the average share of Ideal Revenue lost due to various exemptions, is, on average, 35 percent in the EU, whereas the Actionable Policy Gap – a combination of the Rate Gap and the Actionable Exemption Gap – is, on average, 13 percent of the Notional Ideal Revenue. The econometric analysis repeated after the 2017 Study confirmed the earlier results. We observe that the dispersion of tax rates and unemployment rate have a positive impact on the VAT Gap. Regarding the variables in hands of the administration, on the extended times series compared to the previous year, our results suggest that the nature of the expenditure of the administration, in particular IT expenditure, is more important that the amount of the overall resources.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

19. EuroPACE Market Analysis

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Izabela Styczynska, Karolina Beaumont, and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: EuroPACE is an innovative tool designed to make home renovation simple, affordable and reliable for all Europeans by combining affordable financing with people-centric technical assistance. EuroPACE offers 100% up-front financing that can be repaid over a long term of up to 25 years. The innovation lies in the collection and repayment mechanism – financing is attached to the property and is repaid regularly with charges linked to a property. Homeowners are offered logistical and technical support throughout the process and access to trained and qualified con-tractors. Thus, EuroPACE overcomes the main barriers to home renovation – lack of financing, technical knowledge and complexity of the works. The concept of EuroPACE is inspired by the success of a financing model called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE), launched in California in 2008. In the United States (US), the PACE market reached over USD 6 billion in funded projects, including the retrofit of over 220,000 homes, which resulted in more than 50,000 new local jobs and the creation of hundreds new companies.EuroPACE combines the best practices from the US PACE market with project partners’ substantial experience in improving energy efficiency in European buildings. EuroPACE is a three-year project that intends to assess market readiness, deploy a pilot programme in Spain and scale across Europe to four leader cities. A two-phase research (firstly – legal & fiscal readiness, and secondly – market demand) has been carried to assess the overall readiness for adaptation of this model across the European Union (EU). This document is the second phase of the EuroPACE readiness assessment developed to identify European countries most suited for EuroPACE implementation. It complements the legal and fiscal assessment by focusing on the “demand dimension” by analysing local needs for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES) in residential building renovation of seven selected countries. Based on the results of legal and fiscal analysis of the EU28 MS, in October 2018 the Steering Committee Group of the EuroPACE Horizon2020 (H2020) project chose seven countries: Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Romania, for the second phase of evaluation. These countries were selected based on the scoring outlined in D2.1 and two additional considerations developed by the Steering Committee Group. First, a diverse geo-graphical distribution of the countries was an important element for the selection of these seven countries. Secondly, the knowledge and expertise of the Steering Committee Group about the national potential market opportunity was taken into consideration during the selection process. While in Austria a similar mechanism has already been tested but was unsuccessful, the country still has been chosen for further analysis. In Belgium, despite being a federal state, there is a strong local and regional interest in new financial mechanisms designed to upscale residential retrofits across the country. In the Netherlands, asset-based financial instruments are currently being discussed at the national level, which opens a window of opportunity for EuroPACE to be tested in the country. As for Italy, although the property-taxation system is far from stable, potential synergies with successful programmes like Ecobonus or Sismabonus should be explored. In Poland, nearly 70% of the 6-million residential buildings need significant energy efficiency overhaul; these buildings contribute to some of the worst air quality across the EU leading to approximately 47 thousand premature deaths annually. Portugal, given its Mediterranean climate, proves a great potential not only for EE, but also prosumer RES development, given that current incentives are far from sufficient. Romania has been chosen mainly because of its highest home-ownership rate across the EU and the most institutionalised property-related taxation, possibly setting a stable base for EuroPACE being collected alongside existing charges.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Fiscal Policy, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Belgium, Romania, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, and European Union

20. EU28 legal and fiscal readiness for the adoption of an on-tax financing mechanism - EuroPACE

Author:: Izabela Styczynska and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: EuroPACE is an innovative financial mechanism inspired by an American building improvement initiative called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE). The innovative character of the EuroPACE mechanism is that financing through EuroPACE is linked to the taxes paid on a property. In other words, the financing lent by a private investor is repaid through property taxes and other charges related to the buildings. EuroPACE is therefore in line with the EC’s objectives of (1) putting EE first, (2) contributing to the EU’s global leadership, and (3) empowering consumers to enable MS to reach their energy and climate targets for 2030. Last but not least, EuroPACE could contribute to the democratisation of the energy supply by offering cash-flow positive, decentralised EE solutions. The EuroPACE mechanism engages several stakeholders in the process: local government, investors, equipment installers, and homeowners. To establish the EuroPACE programme, several conditions must be satisfied, each of which are relevant for different stakeholder at different stages of the implementation. For the purpose of this report, we divided these criteria into two categories: key criteria, which make the implementation possible, and complementary criteria, which make the implementation easier. For the time being, it is a pure hypothesis to be tested with potential EuroPACE implementation. One ought to remember that residential on-tax financing is a concept in its infancy in the EU. Therefore, the methodology to evaluate the readiness of a country to implement on-tax financing is complex and consists of six stages:Identification of fiscal and regulatory conditions; Data collection; Weighting; Grading; Country SWOT analysis; Qualitative assessment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Economy, Tax Systems, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

21. The Economic and Monetary Union: Past, Present and Future

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Twenty years of euro history confirms the euro’s stability and position as the second global currency. It also enjoys the support of majority of the euro area population and is seen as a good thing for the European Union. The European Central Bank has been successful in keeping inflation at a low level. However, the European debt and financial crisis in the 2010s created a need for deep institutional reform and this task remains unfinished.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

22. Financing for the Polish economy: prospects and threats

Author:: Andrzej Halesiak, Ernest Pytlarczyk, Mariusz Wieckowski, and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In a properly functioning economy, finance has important role to play in making main sectors of the economy – production, trade, services – to thrive. One of the most important – and often unappreciated – channels by which finance affects the processes taking place in the real sector is the selection of investment projects. It is banks and financial intermediaries that to a great degree decide which projects are carried out in the economy at a given moment, and which are not. If financial institutions are excessively conservative (which today is often an effect of the tight regulatory environment), they will prefer low-risk projects with high levels of collateral (e.g. mortgage loans). A financial system oriented this way will rarely be a source of problems, but at the same time not inclined to finance innovative projects with high potential to benefit the economy. Thus for any economy, a very important question is whether its regulatory framework smartly balances both of these aspects: financial system safety and the need to take on risk. When analyzing the functioning of the financial system, it’s worth noting the gradual blurring of certain traditional boundaries. While decades ago households were the main source of savings in the economy, and the borrowers were enterprises and the public sector, today both households and companies are on both sides, as suppliers and receivers of capital. The boundary between the functioning of banks and capital markets is also increasingly blurred. Today banks operate broadly through the capital market, both as acquirers of securities and as issuers. One area that has been developing dynamically in recent years is the flow of financial resources bypassing traditional intermediaries: direct lending through the peer-to-peer (P2P - direct financing of a project by business partners) and crowdfunding platforms (fundraising by collecting money online).
Topic:: Demographics, GDP, Financial Markets, Economy, Banks, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

23. Why do we need self-employed persons? Some economic reflections, mainly tax related ones

Author:: Adam Adamczyk, Leszek Morawski, and Jarek Neneman
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: For many years, we have been hearing about the need for innovation and entrepreneurship. Successive Polish government declare their support for entrepreneurs and expand the catalog of privileges, mainly related to taxes and mandatory contributions. Not infrequently, in these discussions the self-employed are equated with entrepreneurs. In this work, we will seek an answer to the questions: Who, then, are the self-employed? Are they really entrepreneurs? Should we support their activities? And finally the fundamental question: What does the economy get from the self-employed? In this work we point out that the differences in rates of self-employment between countries may result from differences in taxation on the labor provided by self-employed and salaried workers. In the main part of the work, taking advantage of the potential of the EUROMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model, we show that in Europe there is no single model of taxation of work conducted as one’s own business. In the majority of the tax-contribution systems we examined, the profitability of employment or self-employment changes along with changes in income. In light of the regressivity of the burdens on the self-employed, as a rule it begins to be profitable only above a certain income level. In the first part of the work we define the self-employed as those who run a business, and later we distinguish within this group entrepreneurs, meaning those who take on risk and create innovations. Discussing the advantages and disadvantages of self-employment from the point of view of the self employed and the employer, we point out that the benefits – including systemic (tax and contribution) benefits, outweigh the disadvantages. We also discuss in more detail the imposition of income tax on the self-employed. In the second part we present changes in the value of self-employment over the last 25 years. Here we use data from the World Bank and certain data points from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). They allow us to observe how the relationship between the self-employed and the economy is changing: The significance of services provided for other businesses is growing. Additionally, we can see that the significance of self-employment is falling. In Poland the level of (non-agricultural) self-employment is low. The dynamics of the rate of self employment indicate that the influence of legal regulations on the scale of self-employment is secondary. It seems that in this case, technological and demographic factors are much more significant.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

24. Is Non-State Money Possible? mBank – CASE Seminar Proceedings No. 158

Author:: George Selgin
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: "Depending on how one interprets the question that forms the topic of my talk, one can argue that the answer is obvious, or one can argue just the opposite. In one sense of course, it’s obvious that non-state money is possible. That’s the sense in which we ask only whether some kinds of non-state money are possible. And of course, the answer is yes. The vast majority of payments today, in Poland as elsewhere, are made with privately produced forms of money – that is, with bank deposits of various kinds – transferable by cheque or using debit cards. And there is nothing surprising about that. But of course, my assigned question can also be understood in a different and more interesting way. The interesting question is not whether some kinds of non-state- supplied money are possible. It is a different question, or rather two different questions. One of these is whether non-state circulating monies, or currencies, are possible. Can we rely on the private sector to supply hand-to-hand circulating means of payment? The other even more fundamental question is whether we can have a complete monetary system in which all forms of money supplied privately, and the state plays no substantial regulatory role. In fact, I intend to argue that non-state supplied currencies are also possible, and that completely private monetary systems, in which the state plays no important part, are possible as well. Indeed, I will argue, not only that these things are possible, but that history offers examples of them. That is, they are not just hypothetically possible. I plan to spend much of my time talking to you about these historical examples of privately produced currencies and private or mostly private monetary systems. I wish not merely to make it clear that private currencies and mostly private monetary systems really have existed in the past, but to point out to you that these private currencies and monetary systems have often been entirely or at least highly successful. We might even envy them today, given the performance of our own relatively heavily regulated monetary systems." - Prof. George Selgin writes in the introduction.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and Cryptocurrencies
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

25. Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer, and construction services

Author:: Anna Malinowska, Krzysztof Głowacki, Malgorzata McKenzie, and Przemysław Kowalski
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report analyses the extent of integration within the European Single Market in three services sectors, (1) construction, (2) IT/computer services, and (3) accounting and auditing services, and draws key conclusions in the context of future Single Market services liberalisation efforts. The main body of the report provides a comparative analysis of trade integration and recent trade developments within the three sectors, focusing on Poland’s stakes in the agenda regarding liberalisation of trading in services. It assesses the still existing trade barriers, both for Polish services providers operating in the European Single Market and for foreign firms from other Single Market member states selling to customers in Poland. The discussion of potential benefits from further liberalisation of trade in these sectors for Poland is set in the broader context of the offensive and defensive interests in these sectors of three of Poland’s EU partners: Germany, Hungary and Sweden. The main body of the report is organised into three parts. The first one serves as the background for subsequent analyses, providing general information on trade in services in the EU and modes of the provision of services across borders, as well as presenting statistics on export competitiveness in the sectors of interest. The second part discusses the Services Directive and relevant liberalisation efforts within the Single Market. This is followed by a detailed analysis of the remaining barriers in the three sectors within the Single Market. The last section concludes and provides key policy recommendations. The Annexes present additional sectoral statistics and information on economic characteristics, trade integration, and the remaining trade barriers identified in Poland and the three selected EU partners (Germany, Hungary and Sweden). Additional information on the OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index methodology used to assess the significance and implications of remaining trade barriers is also included. The study “Integration within the European Single Market: accounting, computer and construction services” was commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in consultation with the Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Technology) and prepared by CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research. It is intended as a Polish contribution to the ongoing discussion on the future of the Single Market at the highest political level as well as in the context of upcoming programming of the agenda of the next European Commission.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

26. EuroPACE Market Analysis

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Izabela Styczynska, Karolina Beaumont, and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: EuroPACE is an innovative tool designed to make home renovation simple, affordable and reliable for all Europeans by combining affordable financing with people-centric technical assistance. EuroPACE offers 100% up-front financing that can be repaid over a long term of up to 25 years. The innovation lies in the collection and repayment mechanism – financing is attached to the property and is repaid regularly with charges linked to a property. Homeowners are offered logistical and technical support throughout the process and access to trained and qualified con-tractors. Thus, EuroPACE overcomes the main barriers to home renovation – lack of financing, technical knowledge and complexity of the works. The concept of EuroPACE is inspired by the success of a financing model called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE), launched in California in 2008. In the United States (US), the PACE market reached over USD 6 billion in funded projects, including the retrofit of over 220,000 homes, which resulted in more than 50,000 new local jobs and the creation of hundreds new companies.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Markets, Climate Finance, Fiscal Policy, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe

27. Climate Calling: Inside EU Cities’ and Regions’ Green Race

Author:: Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: : In this issue of showCASE our economist discusses the role of cities and regions in climate negotiations, which since COP21 in 2015 has indeed been growing. Will the incoming COP25 in Madrid (2–13 December) further strengthen cities and regions in fight against climate change? As the author argues, for the upcoming COP presidency, lying a strong foundation for climate action and subnational parties’ engagement in post2020 reality could become the biggest success.
Topic:: Environment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2018 Final Report

Author:: Adam Śmietanka, Alejandro Esteller Moré, Grzegorz Poniatowski, José María Durán-Cabré, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this Report, the Authors present the new Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2016, as well as updated estimates for 2012-2016. In addition to the analysis of the Compliance Gap, this Report examines the Policy Gap in 2016 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses. Moreover, the Report contains an econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants, which is a novelty introduced from this year’s Study. In 2016, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw positive tailwinds with a combined real GDP growth of 2.0 percent. As a result of a growing base and increasing VAT compliance, VAT revenue increased in all MS with three exceptions. Most pronounced is the case of Romania, where VAT revenue decreased in response to reduction of the standard rate by four percentage points. In nominal terms, in 2016, the VAT Gap in EU-28 MS fell below EUR 150 billion and amounted to EUR 147.1 billion. In relative terms, the VAT Gap share of the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) dropped to 12.3 percent from 13.2 percent in 2015, and is the lowest value in the analysed period of 2012-2016. Denoted at the share of GDP, the VAT Gap in 2016 amounted to 0.99% compared to 1.05% in 2015. Of the EU-28, the VAT Gap share decreased in 22 countries and increased in six—namely, Romania, Finland, the UK, Ireland, Estonia, and France. The biggest declines in the VAT Gap—of over five percentage points—occurred in Bulgaria, Latvia, Cyprus, and the Netherlands. The smallest Gaps were observed in Luxembourg (0.85 percent), Sweden (1.08 percent), and Croatia (1.15 percent). The largest Gaps were registered in Romania (35.88 percent), Greece (29.22 percent), and Italy (25.90 percent). Overall, half of EU-28 MS recorded a Gap below 9.9 percent. The Policy Gaps and its components remained stable. The average Policy Gap level was 44.8 percent, out of which 9.95 percentage points are due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap). Countries with the most flat levels of rates in the EU, according to the Rate Gap, are Denmark (0.93 percent) and Estonia (2.97 percent). The Exemption Gap, or the average share of Ideal Revenue lost due to various exemptions, is, on average, 35 percent in the EU, whereas the Actionable Policy Gap—a combination of the Rate Gap and the Actionable Exemption Gap—is, on average, 16.5 percent of the Notional Ideal Revenue. The econometric analysis can be considered a successful first attempt at inferring the impact of various determinants. Firstly, it can be observed that the productive structure of the economy exerts an impact on the VAT Gap. The share of retailers has the strongest impact on the VAT Gap; however, telecommunications, industry, and art also have a positive impact. Secondly, liquidity constraints and the productive structure of the economy also play a role in determining VAT compliance. The most interesting results have to do with the impact of the variables under the direct control of the tax administration. We show that the impact of the size of the tax administration and the VAT Gap is concave. On the contrary, in the case of IT expenditure, the impact is convex, albeit small, until productivity vanishes when IT expenditure is about 9.8 percent of the total expenditure of the tax administration.
Topic:: Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

29. Virtual currencies and their potential impact on financial markets and monetary policy

Author:: Lukasz Janikowski and Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Virtual currencies are a contemporary form of private money. Thanks to their technological properties, their global transaction networks are relatively safe, transparent, and fast. This gives them good prospects for further development. However, they remain unlikely to challenge the dominant position of sovereign currencies and central banks, especially those in major currency areas. As with other innovations, virtual currencies pose a challenge to financial regulators, in particular because of their anonymity and trans-border character.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

30. Economic recovery and inflation

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.
Topic:: Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

31. Enhancing Credibility and Commitment to Fiscal Rules

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to derive the characteristics of an effective fiscal governance framework, focusing on the incentives that ensure a commitment to the fiscal rules. We study this problem with the use of econometric tools, complementing this analysis with formal modelling through the lens of a dynamic principal-agent framework. Our study shows that both economic and institutional factors play an important role in incentivising countries’ fiscal efforts. Fiscal balances are affected not only by the economic cycle, but, among others, by the level of public debt and the world economic situation. We find that the existence of numerical fiscal rules, their strong legal entrenchment, surveillance mechanisms, and credible sanctions binding the hands of governments have a significant impact on curbing deficits. The relationship between the Commission and European Union (EU) Member States (MS), where the EU authorities act as a collective principal that designs contracts for MS, has elements in common with the assumptions of the principal-agent framework. These are: asymmetry of information, moral hazard, different objectives, and the ability to reward or punish the principal. We use a dynamic principal-agent model and show that to ensure good fiscal performance, indirect benefits should be envisaged for higher levels of fiscal effort. In order to account for the structural differences of exerting effort by different MS, it is efficient to adjust fiscal effort to the level of indebtedness. To ensure a commitment to the rules, MS with difficulties conducting prudent fiscal policies should be required to exert less effort than the MS with more modest levels of debt. The FIRSTRUN project is a European Union funded multinational research project that investigates the need for fiscal policy coordination in the EU.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

32. The Significance of the Tobacco Product Manufacturing to Poland’s Economy

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski and Krzysztof Głowacki
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report, The Significance of the Tobacco Product Manufacturing to Poland’s Economy, presents the results of the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco product manufacturing on the Polish economy. The comprehensiveness of the study results from the subject range, covering the sector’s entire value chain: from tobacco cultivation, through processing of raw tobacco and manufacturing of tobacco products, to the distribution and sale of ready products. The report includes an in-depth analysis of current conditions, discusses the challenges facing the sector and attempts to estimate the development of the branches of the economy related to manufacturing of tobacco products in the future. The main purpose of this research was to analyze the economic significance of manufacturing of tobacco products. The economic effect of consumption of tobacco products was only a peripheral element of the research. Conducting such complex research was made possible by advanced methodology. The analytical work was built on three pillars: analysis of existing data, expert interviews and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model expanded to include production and consumption of tobacco products.
Topic:: Economics, Commodities, Fiscal Policy, Manufacturing, and Tobacco
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

33. What’s next for healthcare in Poland: diagnosis and prognosis

Author:: Alicja Domagała, Christoph Sowada, Krzysztof Kuszewski, Marzena Tambor, and Stanisława Golinowska
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The health protection system is the object of constant pressures and difficulties in mitigating them, and even more so eliminating or at least reducing them. Changes are undertaken under the influence of a one-sided political assessment, the interests of various groups of participants or the protests of successive groups of medical staff. There is no professional and fully documented diagnosis of the system, made by independent experts, which could serve as the basis for a comprehensive health protection reform plan, rather than individual, incidental changes that disrupt the system’s already very fragile balance. A well thought-out reform, properly distributed over time, so that at no point does it cause negative health effects. A reform agreed among stake-holders and adopted with understanding of the need for changes, so that it is supported by society. A reform for which there will be funds, institutions and engaged professionals – leaders in health protection. A reform that won’t be criticized or changed when the government changes. Such a reform is waiting to be presented and debated. We begin this process by pointing out and presenting the system’s main problems. At the top of the list of issues that must be taken up urgently we place the problem of insufficient resources, but associated with other activities that are essential to achieve higher effectiveness in accomplishing health goals. There is no single miraculous way of balancing and fixing the functioning of the health protection system. This requires both greater financing, qualitatively and quantitatively appropriate staffing, and good institutions. Financial resources are a necessary condition but not a sufficient one – if there is no staff or appropriate institutions, and these are shaped over years. In this publication we present four subjects, corresponding to that list of the main issues that must be addressed urgently. We begin with the problem of good governance, meaning achieving a decisive improvement in institutional solutions in health protection. Next we take up the problem of the need for growth in financial outlays, with judicious public and individual responsibility. We strongly accent the need for development in Poland of medical and support staff, presenting the problems of neglect and the deep shortage of professionals, which is currently paralyzing the health service. The final text, though no less important in the group of priority problems in health protection, concerns public health and demands that it be properly valued by treating care for the health of the population as an investment in human capital with a measurable and significant rate of return.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, Labor Issues, Governance, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

34. Is a Fiscal Policy Council needed in Poland?

Author:: Balazs Romhanyi and Lukasz Janikowski
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Unsustainability and procyclicality of fiscal policy are problems that many developed countries face. The public debt crisis revealed that fiscal rules are a useful but insufficient instrument for mitigating them. A large and growing group of economists are calling for the creation of ‘fiscal policy councils’ – independent collegial bodies made up of experts whose role is to act as independent reviewers of government policy and advise the government and parliament on fiscal policy. Such councils currently exist in at least 40 countries. Poland is the only EU country that does not have a fiscal policy council. The aim of this paper is to address the issue of whether a fiscal policy council is needed in Poland and what kind of additional contribution such a council might make to the public debate on fiscal policy.
Topic:: Debt, Government, Governance, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

35. The Stupendous US Record Gets Suppressed

Author:: Amity Shlaes
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In recent years, the consensus regarding the American past has slipped leftward, and then leftward again. No longer is American history a story of opportunity, or of military or domestic triumph. America’s has become, rather, a story of wrongs, racial and social. Today, any historical figure who failed at any time to support abolition, or, worse, took the Confederate side in the Civil War, must be expunged from history. Wrongs must be righted, and equality of result enforced. The equality campaign spills over into a less obvious field, one that might otherwise provide a useful check upon the non-empirical claims of the humanities: economics. In a discipline that once showcased the power of markets, an axiom is taking hold: equal incomes lead to general prosperity, and point toward utopia. Teachers, book club presidents, and especially professors withhold any evidence to the contrary. Universities lead the shift, and the population follows. Today, millennials, those born between 1982 and 2000, outnumber baby boomers by the millions, and polls suggest that they support redistribution specifically, and government action generally, more than their predecessors. A 2014 Reason/Rupe poll found 48 percent of millennials agreeing that government should “do more” to solve problems, whereas 37 percent said that government was doing “too many things.” A full 58 percent of the youngest of millennials, those 18-24 when surveyed, held a “positive” view of socialism, in dramatic contrast with their parents: only 23 percent of those aged 55 to 64 viewed socialism positively.
Topic:: Government, Markets, History, Economy, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Welfare
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

36. Will Ukraine Be Able to Establish Real Property Rights?

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Over time, the necessary economic reforms have become so obvious that they have become politically possible in most places. The great problem has become the establishment of real property rights. By and large, Central and Eastern Europe have managed to accomplish that not least thanks to support from the European Union. In the former Soviet Union, however, only Georgia succeeded in that endeavor. The big question today is whether Ukraine will manage to do so, or whether it will be caught in a low-economic-growth trap. The three main elements that are needed are independent courts, autonomous prosecutors, and a law-abiding law enforcement, while no old secret police structures should be allowed to sabotage them.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Reform, and Elections
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

37. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2017 Final Report

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: CASE prepared a new study for the European Commission on the VAT Gap in the European Union in 2015. The figures offer an important snapshot of the problems of collecting VAT in the EU and what needs to be done to improve revenues and fight tax fraud. During 2015, the overall VAT that should have been collected in EU Member States grew by about 4.2 %, while collected VAT revenues rose by 5.8 %. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU Member States decreased by about €8.7 billion in absolute terms, down to €151.5 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap decreased by 2.1 % to 12.7 %. In 2015, the highest VAT Gap was recorded in Romania with a figure of 37.18 %. In absolute terms, the highest VAT Gap of €35 billion was in Italy. Overall, the VAT Gap decreased in most Member States, with the largest improvements noted in Malta, Romania and Spain. The VAT Gap measured in this study includes for the first time revenues emerging from new VAT rules for cross-border sales of e-services which came into force on 1 January 2015, following a Commission proposal. CASE's team was led by Grzegorz Poniatowski, Director of Fiscal Policy Studies, and composed of Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy and Misha Belkindas.
Topic:: European Union, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

38. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Peer Country Paper: Poland

Author:: Iakov Frizis, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Katarzyna Mirecka
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Tax administration has been improving in Poland in recent years. The country moved from a ranking of 128 to a ranking of 47 in the Paying Taxes indicator of the World Bank’s Doing Business report between its 2012 and 2017 editions. However, compliance with taxes still requires 271 man hours, compared to the European Union (EU) & European Free Trade Association (EFTA) average of 173 man-hours and to the top Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) performer Estonia’s 81 man-hours. Polish tax legislation has been described as complex by some observers and not overly complex by other observers, while many emphasise that it is improving at a good pace. The paper summarizes knowledge on tax gaps in Poland with respect to PIT, CIT, VAT, and excise. An introduction to the Polish tax system is given, trends in tax collectability and estimates of the tax gaps are discussed, and methods of combating tax evasion and avoidance are reviewed. The paper has been written as part of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016-2017.
Topic:: Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Free Trade, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

39. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Final Report

Author:: Iakov Frizis and Krzysztof Głowacki
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: ax gaps, or the differences between tax amounts that are due by the taxpayers and the amounts that are actually collected by the state, remain a challenge for many European Union (EU) Member States, including for the V4 countries. Tax gaps also present a formidable challenge for Ukraine, which is currently reforming many aspects of its financial and legal systems. To help increase awareness about tax compliance and exchange knowledge on the state-of-the-art methods used to combat tax gaps, the project Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine has been implemented. The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

40. Quality and cost-effectiveness in long-term care and dependency prevention: the Polish policy landscape

Author:: Stanisława Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: With the population ageing the development of sustainable long-term care institutions is of great importance in many European countries. In Poland, currently dominant, traditional and family based care will become insufficient with increasing cohorts of older people. Presented paper discusses recent developments in long-term care policy in the country. Long-term care institutions are separated in the two sectors, with little field for cooperation and coordination of activities. Over the past years policy addressing ageing related problems was developed, focusing on the active ageing instruments. Dependency prevention and active ageing are among goals of national policies formulated separately in the health and social sector. Information policy and monitoring long-term care services’ provision remains insufficient. Coordination of activities mainly takes place at the local level. Local governments and non-governmental organizations, often cooperating with representatives of older people, are active in providing services to older people in community and often incorporating innovative solutions in care.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

41. Potential impact of financial innovation on financial services and monetary policy

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The recent wave of financial innovation, particularly innovation related to the application of information and communication technologies, poses a serious challenge to the financial industry’s business model in both its banking and non-banking components. It has already revolutionised financial services and, most likely, will continue to do so in the future. If not responded to adequately and timely by regulators, it may create new risks to financial stability, as occurred before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. However, financial innovation will not seriously affect the process of monetary policymaking and is unlikely to undermine the ability of central banks to perform their price stability mission.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

42. Social harmonization and labor market performance in Europe

Author:: Katarzyna Mirecka and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union. The descriptive empirical evidence shows that the level of labor taxation varies significantly across European countries and the introduced changes might affect national markets differently. The Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data regression shows that an increase in the tax wedge, as an element of a social harmonization process, has a very weak impact on labor market performance in the European Union. The impact is statistically significant and negative only for the elderly (i.e. the population aged 50+). Empirical analysis suggests that upward social convergence might negatively affect the employment of the most disfavored groups in the labor market, such as the elderly. It suggests that social harmonization focused on reducing the tax wedge would have favorable effects on labor market performance, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. This report was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Social Security
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

43. Female Brain Drain in Poland and Germany: New Perspectives for Research

Author:: Karolina Beaumont, Matthias Kullas, Matthias Dauner, Izabela Styczynska, and Paul Lirette
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report provides an analysis of the issues related to female brain drain between Poland and Germany in the years 1989-2015: female and male migration patterns during specific time periods, the challenges of female migration, the emigration of highly-skilled individuals in Poland and Germany, as well as the issues regarding brain drain from a gender perspective. Global female migration is a topic frequently studied in academic literature; however, the topic of female brain drain is one that has long been ignored by academic research. This gap in research on female brain drain is closely related to a significant lack of relevant quantitative data, and, consequently, has led to gaps in policymaking. The aim of this report is to gather all available information on female brain drain and its impact on labour markets, gender equality, female migration, and human capital, while noting the gaps in data and policymaking. A further objective of this report is to highlight the issues that are important for policymaking, as well as to propose adequate polic recommendations. The report aims to provide a current and comprehensive analysis of female brain drain in Poland and in Germany – two neighbouring countries, with complex histories of population migration – as well as an analysis of the economic and societal consequences of this phenomenon for both countries. The publication was prepared within the project “Brain drain/brain gain: Polish-German challenges and perspectives - Focus on the gender aspects of labour migration from 1989” with financial support from the Polish-German Foundation for Science and The Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation.
Topic:: Demographics, Education, Gender Issues, Migration, Labor Issues, Brain Drain, Women, Inequality, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Germany, and European Union

44. Pension reform in Belarus in the shadow of Social Europe: vulnerability issues of people aged 50+ and points for improvement

Author:: Sierž Naŭrodski
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The policy brief by Sierž Naŭrodski presents a review of potential effects of parametric pension reform in Belarus starting in 2017 for the population aged 50 and more in terms of unemployment, alcohol consumption, and poverty. It concludes that, despite the fact that raising the retirement age is overdue in Belarus to address demographic challenges, it may have a negative impact on the quality of life of people close to retirement age as well as a poorer GDP effect within current conditions on the labor market in Belarus. The paper presents a set of public policy improvement directions in Belarus, which could help mitigating vulnerability of the group 50+ during the pension reform.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

45. Social harmonization in the eyes of Polish stakeholders – in search of consensus

Author:: Karolina Beaumont, Katarzyna Mirecka, and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Aspects of labor mobility and discrepancies in social benefits schemes in Member States became an urgent matter to address. Revision of the Posting of Workers Directive, the European Pillar of Social Rights and the European Mobility Package were aimed at introducing more harmonization within the EU countries. However, the EU propositions faced a strong resistance from some groups of stakeholders and Member States. Moreover, the debate has been evolving quickly given recent events such as the economic and migration crises and Brexit. CASE held a forum with various Polish stakeholders, where CASE experts gathered views on the future of social situation in the EU. They are all summarized in this Policy Brief. Main policy recommendations emphasize that proposed legislation is important for Poland, however it still needs more debate, since under current form certain policies might be harmful for many EU Member States. This policy brief was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

46. The Influence of Economic Migration on the Polish Economy

Author:: Agata Górny, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, and Joanna Tyrowicz
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the ongoing public debate on economic migration to Poland, emotional statements, or those without any basis in data, often have the upper hand. But in order to speak rationally about Poland as a destination country for immigrants, it is necessary to fully understand the conditions – and in particular the weaknesses – of the Polish labor market. It’s also worth becoming aware of the scale of the processes being discussed. In the 149th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, Joanna Tyrowicz analyzes whether immigration could be a significant labor market driver in Poland. Paweł Kaczmarczyk and Agata Górny discuss the structural consequences of the inflow of Ukrainian workers to the Polish labor market.
Topic:: Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

47. More for less: What tax system for Poland?

Author:: Stanisław Gomułka, Jarosław Neneman, and Michał Myck
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: What are the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years? What does the optimal tax system mean? Do we have high taxes in Poland? The goal of the publication is to initiate a discussion on the subject of a tax system for Poland, presenting a framework within which the current system should be analyzed and conclusions drawn about what changes are needed over the longer term. Professor Stanisław Gomułka, chief economist of the Business Centre Club, analyzes the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years. Jarosław Neneman, an assistant professor at Łazarski University, presents the basic parameters for a planned academic research project on how to use the Polish tax system effectively. Michał Myck, director and board member of CenEA (the Center for Economic Analysis) describes the optimal characteristics of a tax system according to theory and the results of scholarly research, which of course also relates to the Polish tax system.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

48. Russia’s Crony Capitalism: Stagnant But Stable

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The Russian economy is caught in stagnation, but thanks to a skillful macroeconomic policy, the economy has stabilized. The current economic model is dualistic. On the one hand, the so-called systemic liberals are in charge of macroeconomic policy, which they pursue eminently. On the other, President Vladimir Putin allows state corporations, cronies, and law enforcement agencies to dominate the corporate economy, enriching themselves with little consideration of legality. Anders Aslund's paper discusses the state of the Russian economy and the prospects for reform and growth.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, Reform, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Putin, Cronyism, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Russia and Eastern Europe

49. How the European Commission and European countries fight VAT fraud

Author:: Kamil Olczykowski, Piotr Laskowski, Tomasz Kassel, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The VAT gap, both on the European Union scale and that of particular member states (though not all of them) appeals to the imagination and awakens many extreme emotions. For it is difficult to accept that the level is so significant, and – what is more – in recent years it has narrowed quite insignificantly despite attempts to limit it. In the popular understanding, this gap is quite often identified exclusively with the consequences of fraud, but it has many more component elements, many of which have nothing to do with abuse. Still, this doesn’t change the face that it is precisely fraud and abuse that constitute a particularly significant element of the VAT gap.
Topic:: Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

50. The Catalan economy: Crisis, recovery and policy challenges

Author:: Xavier Cuadras-Morató
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain. Until the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis in 2008, it enjoyed a phenomenal economic boom – which then turned into a very severe depression, from which the region began to exit only in 2014. Consolidating the recovery and making the economy more competitive and resilient, and less volatile, are some of the key challenges of economic policy in Catalonia. Also, to improve the region’s social cohesion, policymakers should make sure that economic prosperity is more widely shared, and transform it into an effective tool for social progress.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Trade, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, Catalonia, and European Union

51. Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios

Author:: Aleksander Łaszek
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Poland’s structural deficit is one of the largest in the EU. While other Member States are taking action to reduce their deficits, the Polish government has not only introduced costly projects, but has also announced additional projects that will further aggravate the state of Polish public finances. The aim of maintaining the nominal deficit under 3% of GDP, as declared by the government, is insufficient because it does not leave a margin of safety in case of an economic slowdown. In the meantime, the turbulent global economy and the structural challenges the Polish economy is facing make the scenario of an economic slowdown increasingly plausible. Dr. Aleksander Łaszek evaluates the government’s current policy through the lens of the challenges that stand a head of Polish economy, and its resilience to shocks, in the new mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings "Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios".
Topic:: Debt, Government, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

52. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2016 Final Report

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The analysis serves as the Final Report for the DG TAXUD Project 2015/CC/131, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, which is a follow up to the reports published in 2013, 2014, and 2015. In this report, estimates of the VAT Gap and the Policy Gap for the year 2014 are presented, as well as revised estimates for the years 2010–2013 “due to the transmission” of Eurostat national accounts from the ESA95 to the ESA10. This update covers Croatia, which was not included in the previous updates. While it was hoped that the update would also cover Cyprus, it has not been possible due to incomplete national accounts data. The VAT Gap is a measure of VAT compliance and enforcement that provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies, as well as miscalculations. It is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), which is expressed in the report in bothabsolute and relative terms. The VTTL is the theoretical tax liability according to tax law, and is estimated using a “top-down” approach.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Croatia, and European Union

53. The impact of pension system reform on projected old-age income: the case of Poland

Author:: Elena Jarocinska and Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper analyses the distributional effects of the Polish old-age pension reform introduced in 1999. Following a benchmark Mincer earnings equation, and using a newly developed microsimulation model we project future pension benefits for males born in years 1969–1979. We find that inequality of predicted first pension benefits measured by the Gini coefficient increases from 0.119 to 0.165 for cohorts of men retiring between 2036 and 2046. The observed increased inequality of pension benefits is due to the decreasing share of initial capital that is based on a more generous DB formula in the total accumulated pension capital. At the same time, inequality in replacements rates decreases due to a stronger link between contributions paid through the entire working life and pension benefits.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, Inequality, Social Policy, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

54. Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: lessons for the ECB

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The European Central Bank (ECB) recently became engaged in macro-prudential policies and the micro-prudential supervision of the largest Euro area banks. These new tasks should help complete financial integration, and make the Euro area more resilient to financial instability risks. However, the multiplicity of mandates and instruments involves a risk of their inconsistency which could compromise the ECB’s core price-stability mandate as well as its independence. The experience of central banks during the recent global financial crisis confirms that such risks are not purely hypothetical.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Macroeconomics, Innovation, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

55. On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries

Author:: Aleksander Łaszek, Andrzej Rzońca, and Andrzej Halesiak
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups. The 144th mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings consist of the main paper "On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries" by Andrzej Rzońca and Aleksander Łaszek and the commentary "Economic Growth in Western Europe: The Investment Perspective" by Andrzej Halesiak.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Investment, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Western Europe, and European Union

56. Economic policy and macroeconomic developments in Hungary, 2010-2015

Author:: Gábor Oblath
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The publication "Economic policy and macroeconomic developments in Hungary, 2010–2015" discusses the factors responsible for Hungary’s growth performance. In the 143rd mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings Gábor Oblath argues that that the factors essentially responsible for Hungary’s growth performance over the last five or six years were mainly exogenous to Hungarian government policy. The acceleration of economic growth observed in 2014 was due to, in particular, exceptionally large transfers from EU funds, which have nothing to do with the government’s so called “unorthodox” economic policy. By contrast, the decline in the quality of the institutional environment of the economy is a direct consequence of both the spirit and the methods of the economic policy pursued.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and European Union

57. VAT non-compliance in Poland under scrutiny

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Jarek Neneman, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Since 2009, despite constant growth in the tax base and only slight variations in effective rates, the trend in VAT revenue in Poland has been reversed, and inflows have become less stable. The ongoing decline in VAT collection and the increase in the uncertainty related to the main component of budget revenues is a very important problem, which in the light of growing budget spending may threaten the stability of public finances. In the new mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings three experts: Grzegorz Poniatowski, dr. Jarosław Neneman and Tomasz Michalik examine the structure and the causes of the VAT gap as well as the legal context and possible methods of improving VAT compliance at national and European level.
Topic:: Budget, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

58. The condition of and prospects for the private equity funds market in Poland

Author:: Barbara Nowakowska, Piotr Noceń, Michał Surowski, and Michał Popiołek
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the publication, Barabara Nowakowska and Piotr Noceń discuss 'Poland’s Private Equity Market: Current Conditions and Development Prospects', and Michał Surowski and Michał Popiołek describe 'Private Equity From a Bank’s Perspective'.
Topic:: Development, Markets, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banks, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

59. Quo vadis, Ukraine? Is there a chance for success?

Author:: Ivan Mikloš
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: "If I were to say just one thing about Ukraine, I think I would have to stress it is the most underperforming country of all the countries I know. Ukraine has had, and indeed still does have, a lot of potential. In the beginning of 1990s, in 1992 to be precise, Deutsche Bank prepared an analysis of the chances for the former Soviet Union states to be reformed and developed successfully, and according to this analysis, Ukraine had the best chance among them all to be successful. We know that in reality the opposite happened, and Ukraine is in a very difficult situation now. The main reason for this situation is that when at the beginning of 1990s communist countries collapsed, the old system in Ukraine was not replaced by a new one, one of functioning market economy. It was eroded, but not exactly replaced the way it happened for example in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Baltic states. The country was captured by oligarchs, and a very strange, dysfunctional, and corrupted system was created instead."
Topic:: Development, Economies, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

60. CP ALL and the Case of Value Web Creation

Author:: Bryane Michael, Christopher Hartwell, and Vladimir Korovkin
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: How should convenience store operators like Thailand’s CP-ALL construct its value chains? What does economic theory teach us about an under – modelled area of management theory (namely value chains)? In this paper, Bryane Michael, Christopher Hartwell and Vladimir Korovkin use a seemingly unrelated economic model analysing Vietnam to tell something about the conglomerates running convenience stores licenses like CP-ALL. They find that convenience stores may not want to raise capital from Thai banks and the Bangkok stock market when labour productivity exceeds capital’s. They also find that inefficiencies inherent in Thai markets may significantly reduce the optimal size of a convenience store operator like CP ALL. These operators may also (counter-intuitively) need to give up a significant share of their profits to “value service providers” when the cost of capital falls. As such, counter to the usual World Bank nostrums, improvements in Bangkok’s stock market and banks may actually hurt firms like CP ALL.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia and Thailand

61. Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. 2015 Report

Author:: Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report “2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States” , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries. The VAT Gap is an indicator of the effectiveness of VAT enforcement and compliance measures, as it provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies as well as miscalculations. As the VAT Gap in this study is based on a top-down approach, it does not readily lend itself to be deconstructed according to industrial sectors or other criteria (territorial, professional), and can be best used as a diagnostic tool in the context of its evolution over time. As discussed in previous reports, the VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT actually collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), in absolute or percentage terms. The VTTL is an estimated amount of VAT that is theoretically collectable based on the VAT legislation and ancillary regulations. This report calculates, for each country the VTTL on the basis of national accounts, by mapping information on standard, reduced rates and exemptions onto data available on final and intermediate consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation, from national accounts and use tables. Thus, the quality of the VAT Gap estimates depends on the accuracy and completeness of national accounts data and use tables. The year 2013 saw a continuing overall unfavourable economic environment, as the GDP of the European Union was nearly stagnant. This contributed to a slowdown of nominal final consumption and of other economic aggregates that form the basis of the Value Added Tax. Six countries applied changes to standard or reduced rates in 2013, marking a relatively stable policy environment. During 2013, the overall VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) for the EU-26 Member States grew by about 1.2 percent, while collected VAT revenues rose by 1.1 percent. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU-26 saw an increase in absolute values of about Euro 2.8 billion, to reach Euro 168 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap stayed constant at 15.2 percent. The median VAT Gap rose by 1.6 percentage point, to reach 13.9 percent. In 2013, Member States’ estimated VAT Gaps ranged from the low of 4 percent in Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, to the high of 41 percent in Romania. Overall, 15 Member States decreased their VAT Gap, with the largest improvements noted in Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. 11 Member States saw an increase in the VAT Gap, generally of small magnitudes, with the largest deteriorations in Estonia and Italy. This report also provides new and expanded evidence on the Policy Gap for the EU-26. The Policy Gap is an indicator of the additional VAT revenue that a Member State could theoretically collect if it applied standard rate to all consumption of goods and services supplied for consideration. We provide here estimates of the Policy Gap adjusted to take into account items that could not easily be taxed even in an “ideal” system (imputed rents, public goods, financial services). The results moderate views of the relative importance of reduced rates and exemptions in reducing the revenue potential of VAT, and suggest that better enforcement remains a key component of any strategy of improvement of the VAT system. The results of this report and the underlying data were presented to Member States in advance of publication and discussed on several occasions with the representatives of Member States. Deviating approaches and views of Member States are noted in the relevant country section in Chapter 3. The authors are grateful for the constructive cooperation and helpful input of Member States.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

62. Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses in Georgia – White paper

Author:: Maya Grigolia, Lasha Labadze, Pavol Minarik, Alena Zemplinerova, and Marek Vokoun
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report has been prepared in the framework of the project “Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses” of the International Visegrad Fund (IVF) and USAID. It summarizes the conditions of the SME sector (small and medium size enterprises) in Georgia, identifies the main problems in their development and provides recommendations for further interventions based on the Czech experience, existing literature and a survey implemented among SME stakeholders. Georgia generally receives favorable evaluations of its business environment. It ranks high in indices of economic freedom and is among the top countries with respect to ease of starting and doing business. On the other hand, the SME sector suffers from several problems. The most serious obstacle to SME development seems to be in the area of finance; access to finance is difficult for SMEs and the cost of credit is high. Human capital and innovations are among the weak points of Georgian SMEs as well. The different shortcomings of the environment and markets call for different interventions. The paper is roadmap of concrete activities – it contains a set of recommendations to support SMEs development drawn on three different sources: first, the theoretical foundations of entrepreneurship policy, second, the Czech experience and know-how in the SME sector, and finally, the ideas of local experts and stakeholders generated during interviews and workshops. Activities and recommendations have been divided into “generic,” which relate to a particular determinant of business environment and have an impact across industries and sectors such as access to financing, education, developing skills training, R&D, innovation, export strategy, start-ups, and those which are “sector-specific,” such as banking, health and agriculture. Political stability, the main problem in Georgia, is beyond the scope of possible interventions.
Topic:: Development, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, Institutions, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

63. Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:: Monika Blaszkiewicz
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE. This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

64. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia

65. The impact of living and working longer on pension income in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland

Author:: Andres Võrk, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Elena Jarocinska, Niku Määttänen, Robert Gál, and Theo Nijman
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five European countries and assess the impact of these policy reforms on the financial well-being of the elderly. The paper shows the diversity of the policy measures taken in these countries. Furthermore, we analyze the financial incentives for working longer and postponing claiming pension benefits and we assess the attractiveness of these options. Lastly, we study how increases in life expectancies and survival probabilities affect pension incomes.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Netherlands, and European Union

66. Transfer of Know-how for SMEs in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. White Paper: Moldova

Author:: Gabor Hunya, Lidis Garbovan, Magdolna Sass, and Oliver Kovacs
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The report focuses on the potential of the development of small and mid-size businesses in Moldova. It provides an economic overview of the country, and then analyzes various best practices and lessons learned from the development of SMEs in the Visegrad countries, especially Hungary. The report provides a description of economic developments, main trade figures, relevant labor developments, migration and the role of remittances and defines the bottlenecks for SME development in the country. The authors built their analysis on available literature and statistics as well as their own survey and interview series. The study highlights six case studies relevant for SME development selected for deeper investigation such as simplified tax schemes, online tax reporting, entrepreneurship education, agriculture and producers’ organizations, the wine industry and issues of measurement of the SME sector. Finally the report draws up potential intervention schemes for Moldovan stakeholders and provides further recommendations for longer term initiatives and actions taken for the support of economic and SME development.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

67. Transfer of Know-how for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine White Paper: Ukraine

Author:: Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The publication was issued within the project ‘Transfer of Know-How for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine’ which aims to assist SMEs in those countries by providing support to stakeholders in their efforts to develop analytical and policy advocacy capabilities and by opening new channels of communication between SMEs and NGOs in the Visegrad Four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and the rest of the European Union. The objective of the study is to deliver the complete findings and outcomes of the project aimed at Ukraine. This White Paper serves as an authoritative document with action plans, budgets, and a tangible way for the beneficiary country stakeholders to move forward with the agenda of small and medium-sized business development. It presents an overview of the collected background information and contains basic data on the countries, including some key macroeconomic comparisons as well as rankings in major competitiveness reports (e.g. Doing Business report by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development), identifies the project stakeholders and provides an overview of the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine. It also includes the findings of two surveys implemented by the Slovak-Ukrainian team. Based on the findings, the “Discussion and Recommendations” section presents various perspectives on the problems of SMEs in Ukraine using the experience of the accession process of Slovakia, specific examples of key initiatives that led to the resolution of the problems, as well as case studies from various industries. It stresses the involvement of all parties including the EU, local governments, civil society, business associations, and the SMEs themselves. The key outcome of the paper is a road map – a very specific plan of actions including schedules, budgets, and other details within the scope of this project that will help the beneficiary country to cope with problems regarding the agenda of small and middle business development using the expertise and experience of institutions and stakeholders accumulated throughout the Slovak EU accession process. It includes a wide range of activities including a discussion of the project results with various Ukrainian stakeholders, workshops aimed at increasing knowledge about EU markets, legislation and standards, as well as strategic and institutional moves.
Topic:: Development, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

68. Corporate debt securities market in Poland: state of art, problems, and prospects for development

Author:: Agnieszka Gontarek, Piotr Kowalski, and Tomasz Gałka
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The development of the Polish corporate bonds market resulted from changes on the supply side. When the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Polish entrepreneurs realized that financing their companies’ operations only with the use of credit, even if contracted from different sources, might not be the best idea. Consequently, Polish business turned to debt instruments – said Piotr Kowalski, one of the keynote speakers during the mBank - CASE Seminar no. 136. In the publication, which is an extended and authorized version of presentations delivered during the abovementioned seminar, the authors discuss various aspects of the corporate debt securities market in Poland. Piotr Kowalski gives a synthetic presentation of the subject of the analysis, Agieszka Gontarek presents selected domestic regulations and factors, and Tomasz Gałka writes about selected consequences of excessive burdens.
Topic:: Debt, Business, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

69. An assessment of direct and indirect liabilities of Polish banks AD 2015

Author:: Marek Radzikowski and Mieczysław Groszek
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The present document is an attempt at a comprehensive analysis of direct and indirect burdens imposed upon banks in 2015. The idea to present such factors — which are often extremely varied in nature — in a single study was born out of the fact that these factors are often considered separately, on the basis of various criteria, which causes them to be split into different groups. This approach results in a fairly common tendency for fragmentary assessment of their impact and, more importantly, in the adoption of piecemeal regulations which fail to take into account the full impact of the actions taken in different areas. This applies in equal measures to supervisory authorities, regulators, analysts, policymakers and the media, which means that, in a somewhat oversimplified sense, the above statement is applicable to the public at large. This situation can be most succinctly characterised in the manner presented below. In the aftermath of the crisis, banks require a new set of instruments to regulate the functioning thereof. This is because they are to become more stable, safe, less risk-prone and more customer-friendly. Each of these areas requires a separate set of regulatory instruments, along with the respective subgroups thereof. Oftentimes they are not synchronised with each other and are usually aimed at the implementation of a specific, particular goal to an excessive extent. In addition, there are also “special tasks” such as the reform of the Credit and Saving Unions (SKOK).
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, and European Union

70. The Banking Union: State of Art

Author:: Andrzej Reich and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: It is widely believed that the creation of the banking union initiated the integration of the EU banking market. The process is traced back to June 2012 (EU Summit decided to create the banking union), 4 November 2013 (effective date of the Banking Union Regulation), or 4 November 2014 (operational launch of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, SSM). However, the integration of the EU banking market began much earlier and the creation of the banking union should be considered the final rather than the initial step in the process.
Topic:: Finance, Financial Markets, Regional Integration, Banks, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

71. A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little

Author:: Oleh Havrylyshyn
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work.
Topic:: Development, Markets, Economy, Transitional Justice, Institutions, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

72. On Competition in the Banking Sector in Poland and Europe Before and During the Crisis

Author:: Małgorzata Pawłowska
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the past decades, the banking sector has come to be known in literature as the banking industry as it was geared to increasing profits, banks were growing, and banking products developed dynamically. It was believed that competition in the banking sector makes banks more efficient and stimulates financial innovation opening new markets. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 has sparked the interest of researchers and politicians in competition in the banking sector and its impact on the stability of the financial sector and overall economic growth. However, researchers cannot agree whether more competition improves or hinders stability. The paper is comprised of three sections and a summary. The first section discusses the concept of competition in the banking sector as well as measures of competition. The second section is a review of literature on competition in the banking sector and its determinants. The third section presents the results of research on competition in the EU, including my own research as well as other research. The paper concludes with a short summary. This publication was presented by Małgorzata Pawłowska during the 134th mBank-CASE Seminar "The global financial crisis: changes in competition in the banking sector in Europe, the role of regulation and intervention by governments and central banks".
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Finance, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, and Banks
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

73. Conceptual Framework of the Active Ageing Policies in Employment in the Czech Republic

Author:: Lucie Vidovićová
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this paper the author presents a general assessment of the labour market situation of older workers in the Czech Republic, starting with a more general overview of the demographic situation and emphasizing the generational differences among the young-old and older cohorts, underlying a number of different problems as well as solutions. Further in the paper she addresses the impact of the recent economic situation on employment levels, showing that the recovery in terms of employment has not yet begun and that the impact on older workers is (at least) two-fold: firstly, for older workers it is very difficult to find a new job once unemployed; secondly, if employed, the pressure on workability and the increasing demands of workplaces may be harder to bear for the older the worker. She describes a National Action Plan Supporting Positive Ageing (2013-2017) and other examples of good and transferable praxes which address some of the active ageing issues in an innovative way. The second part of this report examines the issues of employability, workability and age-management as perceived by some of the key actors. The report goes into greater detail on the topic of paid work after retirement, which is considered an important part of the Czech economy, despite the fact that the employment of sizable groups of older workers after retirement is undeclared. Self-entrepreneurship and independent work in later life are another realm of employment that is increasing in importance in the Czech economy; however, as consulted experts argue, it is not to be taken as an unproblematic solution to late-life careers. In the last chapter the author turns her attention to the lifelong learning of older workers and to their up-skilling/retraining. In the concluding remarks, she reemphasizes the need to address the heterogeneity of the older workforce, in the sense of age/generational affiliation, health, socio-economic and other characteristics.
Topic:: Demographics, Employment, Social Policy, Aging, Social Services, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Czech Republic

74. Conceptual Framework of the Active Ageing Policies in Employment in Poland

Author:: Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The aim of this work is to present an in depth understanding of the conceptual framework of active ageing policies, which have been created and implemented in Poland. The discussion of active ageing in employment in Poland started relatively late. The first discussions on the unfavourable situation of elderly employment emerged only in the second half of the 1990s, when the debate on the pension system reform started. While only a few ageing policies were developed at the national level during that time, several interesting initiatives were undertaken at a regional level and in the third sector. They were mostly focused on productive ageing and the problems associated with the economic activation of people over 50. The intensive implementation of the active ageing policies in Poland started in 2012, during the European Year of Active Ageing. At present, there is an intense discussion on policies addressed to the elderly, which concentrate not only on the activation of the labour market, but also on healthy, active and socially inclusive ageing, education andcivil engagement. This paper concludes that despite intense work being done by public authorities, the concept still needs a deeper implementation - especially at the regional level. Furthermore, close observation and evaluation of the activation programmes is still missing and the identification and implementation of good practices which are already being developed in other European countries is under-used.
Topic:: Demographics, Employment, Social Policy, Aging, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

75. Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure. To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved. However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Arab Spring, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Instability
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Mediterranean, and Southern Europe

76. Employee financial participation in businesses: Is it worth discussing?

Author:: Barbara Blaszczyk
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper is an overview of the achievements in the area of employee financial participation (EFP) during the last fifty years. It addresses the question of the extent to which EFP is relevant in today’s world. EFP is distinguished from participation in management (industrial democracy), and the various types of EP are discussed. The major arguments for EFP are presented and discussed critically. The evolution of major forms of EFP, the scale of their operation in several advanced economies, and the legal and tax incentives for EFP are described. The efforts of European Union bodies to popularise this idea in all member countries are illustrated. Showing that EFP has become a broadly recognised principle of modern management in thousands of enterprises, we consider opportunities for disseminating these solutions on a wider scale, in particular in Poland. Finally, a number of directions for further research on financial participation are considered.
Topic:: European Union, Employment, Finance, and Management
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

77. Employment in Long-term Care. Report on Poland

Author:: Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta, Ewa Kocot, and Stanisława Golinowska
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Topic:: Demographics, Employment, Aging, Social Services, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

78. Forecasting Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski and Maciej Krzak
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, and Czech Republic

79. Impact of aging on curative health care workforce. Country Report Poland

Author:: Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta, Ewa Kocot, and Stanisława Golinowska
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.
Topic:: Social Policy, Aging, Public Health, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

80. EU cooperation with non-member neighboring countries: the principle of variable geometry

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this study the author analyzes the experience of the European Union in cooperation with non-member neighboring countries, to which the EU’s integration process and institutions are both available. On the one hand, several non-member countries are interested in close cooperation or integration with the organization because of their future membership aspirations or simply because they consider the EU an important economic and political partner. On the other hand, the EU itself is also interested in building such close relations, for economic but often also for geopolitical and security reasons.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Eastern Europe

81. True and false remedies for long time unemployment in Visegrad countries

Author:: Ágota Scharle
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Two in ten working age adults have been out of work for over a year in Visegrad economies and long term joblessness is especially high among the uneducated. The employment disadvantage of uneducated workers tends to be larger than in Western European countries, and is especially grievous in Hungary, where a relatively large share of the labour force has only completed primary school. The build-up of long term joblessnes may take its toll both on the individual and the economy. Beside the loss of human capital and potentially harmful effects on health and mental health, the lower job search intensity of the long term unemployed may lead to weaker wage adjustment and slower economic recovery. Long term non-employment also increases poverty and social exclusion, which may further constrain economic growth. Reducing long term unemployment by activating the unemployed, increasing the education level or preventing early retirement could potentially increase the total employment rateby 2-3 % points in the Visegrad countries.
Topic:: Social Policy, Human Capital, Unemployment, Social Services, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Hungary

82. Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Katarzyna Waşik, and Maciej Krzak
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous. For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier. The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

83. Demand-driven innovation policies in the European Union

Author:: Camilla Jensen and Itzhak Goldberg
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The objective of the PICK-ME (Policy Incentives for Creation of Knowledge – Methods and Evidence) research project is to provide theoretical and empirical perspectives on innovation which give a greater role to the demand-side aspect of innovation. The main question is how can policy make enterprises more willing to innovate? This task is fulfilled by identifying what we consider the central or most salient aspect of a demand-side innovation- driven economy, which is the small and entrepreneurial yet fast growing and innovative firm. We use the term “Gazelle” to signify this type of firm throughout the paper. The main concern of policy-makers should therefore be how to support Gazelle type of firms through various policies. The effectiveness of different policy instruments are considered. For example, venture capitalism is in the paper identified as an important modern institution that renders exactly the type of coordination necessary to bring about an innovation system more orientated towards the demand side. This is because experienced entrepreneurs with superior skills in terms of judging the marketability of new innovations step in as financiers. Other factor market bottlenecks on the skills side must be targeted through education policies that fosters centers of excellence. R&D incentives are also considered as a separate instrument but more a question for future research since there is no evidence available on R&D incentives as a Gazelle type of policy. Spatial policies to foster more innovation have been popular in the past. But we conclude that whereas the literature often finds that new knowledge is developed in communities of physically proximate firms, there is no overshadowing evidence showing that spatial policies in particular had any impact on generating more of the Gazelle type of firms.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Europe

84. Special Economic Zones - 20 years later

Author:: Camilla Jensen
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In this paper the authors undertake an ex-post evaluation of whether the special economic zones (SEZs) introduced in Poland in 1994 have been successful in meeting regional development objectives. They evaluate the policy of as many of its objectives as possible: employment creation, business creation (which includes attracting foreign direct investment), income or wage effects, and environmental sustainability. They use different panel data methods to investigate this question at the powiat and gmina levels in Poland during the 1995-2011 period. It is also possible to include numerous controls to reduce the problem of the omitted variables bias such as education level, dependency rates, state ownership, general subsidies and whether the area is urban or rural. The results indicate that SEZs in Poland have been successful in a number of their objectives such as private business creation. The positive effect of the policy however mainly comes through foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effects on e.g. investment and employment are small or insignificant. In other areas, such as securing higher income levels and locking firms into the sustainability agenda through the adoption of green technologies and reduced air pollution, the authors find only a small positively moderating effect of the policy on what are traditionally economically disadvantaged areas in Poland that used to be dependent on the socialist production model. Hence, despite high levels of FDI, the zones policy has not managed to overcome the legacy of backwardness or lagging regions. The main policy implication of the paper is that SEZs may be successful in stimulating activity in the short run but the policy must be seen as one of necessary temporality and can therefore not stand alone. Before launching SEZs, policymakers must have plans in place for follow up measures to ensure the longer term competitiveness and sustainability implications of such an initiative. There is a need to understand the connection between the specific incentive schemes used (in this particular case tax incentives were used) and the kinds of firms and activities they attract, including the behavioral models that those incentives promote.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Special Economic Zones, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

85. Innovation and the Growth of Service Firms: The Polish Case

Author:: Krzysztof Szczygielski, Richard Woodward, and Wojciech Grabowski
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Differences in the growth of firms remain a major topic in economics and strategy research. In this paper we investigated the link between innovation performance and employment growth. First we discuss the problem from the theoretical point of view and then we analyze the relationship between innovation performance and the dynamics of employment in the Polish service firms in 2004-2009. Firms that introduced new services or marketing techniques experienced stronger growth. Process innovations contributed to employment reduction. Tellingly, this effect could only be observed in 2008-2009, a subperiod which saw the lowest levels of aggregate demand. This conclusion yields support to the presumption formulated by Pianta (2005) that the impact of innovation on employment growth depends on the macroeconomic situation.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

86. External vs Internal Determinants of Firm Technology Strategy: Evidence from the Polish Services Sector

Author:: Krzysztof Szczygielski, Richard Woodward, and Wojciech Grabowski
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The authors use the insights from strategy research and innovation studies to address two principal questions regarding the technology strategy of a firm: what are the distinct elements of technology strategy and what are the strategy determinants? Equipped with Zahra’s (1996) concept of measuring technology strategy, we analyze data from two runs of the Community Innovation Survey for Polish service firms. They propose a set of indicators reflecting four principal fields of technology strategy: pioneer-posture, R&D efforts, technology portfolio, and monitoring activities. Interactions between the strategic variables are analyzed and their determinants are assessed. The results suggest that technology strategies are determined by both factors external to the firm, and by the hitherto less stressed in the CIS-based empirical literature, internal factors. The role of internal factors increases with the macroeconomic environment becoming less favourable.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

87. What Affects the Main Engine of Growth in the European Economy? Industrial Interconnectedness and Differences in Performance of Business Services Across the EU25

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski and Maciej Sobolewski
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The main purpose of this study is to determine what are the main factors which stand behind the diversity in performance of business services measured by their contribution to growth in the EU Member States. We show that in addition to typical growth factors which enhance labour productivity, also the extent of interconnectedness of business services with upstream industries is important to explain service-based economic growth. The analysis yields two interesting results. Firstly, the authors show that patterns of industrial interconnectedness of business services are considerably diversified across the EU Member States indicating large differences in the integration of services as supplier with other sectors on a country level. Secondly they show that the diversified growth performance of business services across the EU25 countries can be explained by differences in labour productivity and differences in forward linkages. The results indicate the fundamental role of business services as the main engine of growth in the European economy. This service-based growth is channelled mainly through increases in labour productivity and forward interconnectedness of services with downstream industries. On the policy making level the results indicate that investment in human and intangible capital are crucial for the service-dominated economy as they not only enhance economic growth inside knowledge intensive services but also facilitate transmission of growth impulses to downstream industries by increasing diffusion and integration of services as suppliers of high value added inputs to the economy.
Topic:: Development, European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Services, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Europe

88. Post-Crisis Lesson for EMU Governance from the Principal-Agent Approach

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski and Luca Barbone
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on fiscal consolidation and the questionable effectiveness of the Stability and Growth Pact by addressing the problem of economic governance in the EMU with a game-theoretic principal-agent approach. Following the theory of delegation, we develop a principal-multi agent model where the EMU authorities act as a collective principal that designs contracts for each of two agents that reflect Europe’s ”South” and ”North”. We investigate what happens when agents face hidden-information moral hazard problem and when they are able to coordinate their actions. Bearing in mind the applicability of incentive mechanisms, we discuss the optimal contracts for the principal and each of the agents. We prove that the most efficient solution consists of tailor-made contracts, according to which highly indebted countries must be offered strong incentive mechanisms in the form of substantial penalties but also rewards (e.g., preferential loans). We also stress the importance of taking into account positive spillover effects, which could be facilitated by economic integration and fiscal policy coordination between the EMU Members.
Topic:: Governance, Macroeconomics, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

89. Does Government Support for Private Innovation Matter? Firm-Level Evidence from Turkey and Poland

Author:: Krzysztof Szczygielski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Sinan Tandogan, and Wojciech Grabowski
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The aim of the project is to analyze government support for innovation in a comparative perspective by first examining the main existing instruments of financial support for innovation in Turkey and Poland, and secondly to assess their effectiveness by applying recent econometric techniques to firm-level data for both countries obtained from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). Comparing Turkey to Poland is both meaningful and promising from a policy-analysis point of view. Both countries are comparable in terms of levels of economic development and technological capabilities, i.e. the ability of their economies to create knowledge and exploit it commercially. Both have undergone deep market-oriented reforms in the last decades – Turkey since 1980, Poland since 1989 – resulting in a significant catching-up of their economies. However, as the possibilities for further growth based on structural change and eliminating obstacles to business.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Markets, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Poland, and Mediterranean

90. Economic Policy Coordination in the EMU: From Maastricht via SGP to the Fiscal Pact

Author:: Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The present paper first takes a step backwards with an attempt to situate the adoption of this Treaty in discussion of the SGP and the “Maastricht criteria” (the criteria for EMU membership fixed in the Maastricht Treaty) in a longer perspective of the sharing of competences for macroeconomic policy making within the EU from the initial Treaty to the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). It then presents the main features of the Fiscal Treaty and its relation to the SGP and draws some conclusions as regards the importance and relevance of this new step in the process of economic policy coordination. It concludes that the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union does not seem to offer a definitive solution to the problem of finding the appropriate budgetary-monetary policy mix in the EMU already well identified in the Delors report in 1989 and regularly emphasised ever since and now seriously aggravated due to the Crisis. Furthermore, the implementation of this Treaty may under certain circumstances contribute to an increase in the uncertainties as regards the distribution of the competences between the European Parliament.
Topic:: Globalization, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Eurozone, Trade, Economic Integration, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe

91. Labour Migration from the Eastern Partnership Countries: Evolution and Policy Options for Better Outcomes

Author:: Luca Barbone, Matthias Luecke, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, Partnerships, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

92. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Ukraine

Author:: Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupe
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Partnerships, Social Policy, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

93. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Moldova

Author:: Georgeta Mincu and Vasile Cantarji
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This Report is one of six studies in the first phase of the EU project on “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries.” It aims to provide an informed view on the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Moldova. Since Moldova’s Declaration of Independence in 1990, migration has transformed the country in ways that were impossible to predict. With over a quarter of its labour force now working abroad (a full ten percent of its population), Moldova has become the epitome of a migration-dependent country, with all the costs and benefits associated with this definition. Remittances are as high as one-third of national income, and have helped the country raise its living standards and fuel investment in housing and small businesses. Yet there have also been costs to the large migratory flows, ranging from effects on the macroeconomy to the disruption of social life. All in all, migration has been good for Moldova. This complex socio-economic phenomenon now appears to have stabilized. Further gains for Moldova and its partner countries could be achieved when new agreements are implemented and the institutions dealing with the planning of migration and protection of migrants are strengthened.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe

94. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia

Author:: Lasha Labadze
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration from Georgia to the EU. The study estimates the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years. While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially, other EaP countries.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and Georgia

95. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Belarus

Author:: Alaksei Kazlou and Alexander Chubrik
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Belarus

96. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Azerbaijan

Author:: Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This Report is one of the six studies in the first phase of the EU project on the “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries”. It aims at providing an informed view of the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Azerbaijan. The Report is comprised of 7 Chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 provide a discussion of relevant developments in the economy and labour market in the period since independence, with emphasis on developments over the last ten years or so. Chapter 3 provides a detailed discussion of trends in migration, and discusses the labour migration profile. Chapter 4 analyses remittances and their impact on income, investment and consumption. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of the available evidence on the costs and benefits of labour migration, emphasising the economic, social and demographic costs and consequences. Chapter 6 discusses current migration policies and institutions, while Chapter 7 discusses various factors that may be useful in forecasting key migration trends in the future.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Azerbaijan

97. Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Armenia

Author:: Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity. Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and Armenia

98. Fiscal or Bailout Union: Where Is the EU/EMU’s Fiscal Integration Heading?

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The European debt crisis triggered a debate on the lacking components of the EU and EMU integration architecture. Many believe that a common currency requires closer fiscal and political integration as a condition for its survival. This opinion is not necessarily supported by the experience of other monetary unions, especially those created by sovereign states. On the other hand, the current EU integration architecture already contains several elements of fiscal union. Furthermore, in several important policy areas such as financial supervision, defense, security, border protection, foreign policy, environmental protection, and climate change, the centralization of tasks and resources at the Union level could offer increasing returns to scale and a better chance to address pan-European externalities. This applies to the entire EU, not only to the Eurozone. Each variant of fiscal integration must be based on sound foundations of fiscal discipline. Market discipline, i.e., the danger of sovereign default, supplemented by clear and consistently enforced fiscal rules is the best solution to this problem. Unfortunately, since 2010, the ‘no bail out’ principle has been replaced by a policy of conditional bailout of governments in fiscal trouble. Some proposals, such as Eurobonds or the lender of last resort to governments, go even further in this direction, and threaten to build a dysfunctional fiscal union.
Topic:: Debt, European Union, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Eurozone
Political Geography:: Europe

99. Cost and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries

Author:: Luca Barbone and Matthias Luecke
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Migration from Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries has only become a large and important phenomenon over the last twenty years. At its heart, labour migration reflects entrepreneurial decisions by individuals and families looking to improve their lives while facing complex challenges and opportunities. In the past, the language of "migration management" was sometimes used to suggest that migrants and migration needed to be “managed” to achieve government objectives. By contrast, in adopting a migrant-centered perspective, our project aimed to understand, first, EaP migrants’ incentives and the effects of migration on migrants and their families, on non-migrants in the country of origin, and on residents of the destination country. Second, we investigated how labour migration is shaped by and interacts with a wide range of government policies and which policy interventions can enhance the benefits of migration for the affected groups.
Topic:: Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe

100. Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation

Author:: Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Claudia Villosio, Maciej Lis, Michele Belloni, and Monika Potoczna
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report, titled "Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation", was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme. The report focuses on links between age, productivity and lifelong learning. Various data sources (EU-SILC, LFS, Structure of Earnings Survey, SHARE, ELSA, SHARELIFE) and methodological approaches were used in this report. The analysis identifies clusters of countries with common characteristics of age-earnings profiles (for certain groups of employees) and allows for an explanation of those differences. Some differences can be attributed to the share of sectors, education types, and occupations in country-specific employment. Others are due to labour market institutions and the (dis)incentives to work at older ages provided by social security systems. Additionally, the dynamics of earnings after age 50 differ less between educational and occupational groups than at earlier ages. The authors show that the dynamics of average wages are strongly influenced by the timing of entering and leaving labour market. An estimation of the impact of LLL on productivity (measuredby earnings) at older ages shows that for employees aged 50+, participation in training increases wages in the short-term.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Human Capital, Aging, Labor Market, and Capital
Political Geography:: Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS