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2. Coronavirus: An Ethical Question in the US-Iran Showdown
- Author:
- Ali Akbar Dareini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Coronavirus is killing Iranians, so does Trump by waging a campaign of economic and medical terrorism. Its refusal to lift the sanctions exacerbates the already-tense relations between Tehran and Washington and pushes Iran to redefine its foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Health, Sanctions, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
3. The New Arab Uprisings: How the 2019 trajectory differs from the 2011 legacy? (Part 2)
- Author:
- Peter Bartu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2019, the Middle East seems beset by conflict, chaotic politics and dysfunctional economies. However, the mood of the people in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq is more defiant. Not since 2011 have we seen such public demonstrations for accountability and an end to corruption, war and foreign meddling. This time, they might just get it.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
4. Uzbekistan’s New Parliament: Real Reform or Just the Will of the ‘President’s Men’?
- Author:
- Zaki Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The first meeting of the Senate of Uzbekistan’s Oliy Majlis took place in Tashkent January 22, 2020 to carry out its functions for the new term until 21 December 2024. In his keynote speech, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev congratulated the senators on this high status, while the new council includes representatives from diverse professional fields. He also argued it was “imperative to strengthen the role of the Upper House of Oliy Majlis in delivering an atmosphere of the irreconcilable fight against corruption and crime in general in society, as well as boost control over the activities of government bodies aimed at enhancing the role of women in society.” In Uzbekistan, political parties are traditionally seen to serve a symbolic function with their main mission being to mobilize and maintain support for a strong presidential system. Harnessing popular support for the poll could be seen as a crucial step in Mirziyoyev’s strategy of building support in the run up to the next presidential elections, which will be due in Uzbekistan in 2021. This aim will remain a higher priority compared to the pursuit of political transformation, which could allow the new parliament evolve as an autonomous institution and the democracy to mature. This first part of this paper explains the significance of the parliamentary elections held in Uzbekistan on 22 December 2019. The second part brings to the readers’ attention a range of reactions and responses on how the campaign, polling and outcome was seen by voters, party representatives and election observers. The third and final part of the report will conclude with the findings and recommendations of the observers in addition to some projections of how the conduct and outcome of the election may affect the future course of the country’s politics.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, Reform, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Uzbekistan
5. Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- During the month of January 2020, most world capitals, diplomats, and think tanks sought to evaluate the status of the already-fragile balance of power in the Gulf. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to assassinate the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad has triggered the most acute escalation between Washington and Tehran since 1979. The White House’s pursuit of neutralizing the second most important figure in Iran, after the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamenei, has shifted the US-Iranian rivalry into a fierce confrontation between Washington’s “maximum pressure” and Tehran’s “maximum resistance”. There have been several interpretations and predictions of Iran’s possible direct or indirect acts of retaliation vis-à-vis Trump’s threats of targeting 52 sites, which have political and cultural significance for the Iranians. Some Washington-based analysts have been wary that “the U.S. and Iran are now in a traditional escalatory slope, and although neither side wants war, there is a real risk that it might happen.”(1) Anthony H. Cordesman, leading analyst at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, has cautioned that the new US-Iran crisis “has now led to consistent failures in the U.S. strategy when dealing with Iraq and the Middle East for the last two decades – and has already turned two apparent ‘victories’ into real world defeats.”(2) In Doha, two research institutions, Aljazeera Centre for Studies and Qatar University’s Gulf Studies Centre, hosted a two-day conference, “Toward a New Gulf Security Order: Abandoning Zero-sum Approaches” at Qatar University January 19 and 20, to formulate new perspectives of the waning regional security order, and explore how to construct an alternative paradigm. As a point of entry, the Conference concept highlighted two manifestations of the failure of the existing security order, formally adopted by all Gulf States, since the establishment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) May 25, 1981: First, to prevent the invasion, and later liberation, of Kuwait in the early 1990s. GCC established a coalition land force, “the Peninsular Shield Force”, with the objective of defending the six nation states, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the decision of three member states - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain - to impose a blockade on Qatar, a founding member of GCC since June 2017.(3) In this turbulent part of the world, Iran’s pursuit of creating a regional security order, but on the parsuit of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region—a condition rejected by Gulf states, which see the United States as the principal guarantor of their national security. Moreover, Iran still considers its own foreign interventions in the Gulf and Arab region as part of its revolutionary identity, to which it has devoted resources and agencies.(4) This paper “Seven Ironies of Reconstructing a New Security Paradigm in the Gulf” is a summary of the presentation I delivered at the Conference’s fifth panel “The Gulf and the US-Gulf Conflict”. It probes into several challenges of deconstructing the status quo, before envisioning an alternative framework of mutual security cooperation among several actors in the Gulf and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
6. A Thick Cloud in the US-Iran Climate
- Author:
- Ali Akbar Dareini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Neither Iran nor the United States want a full-fledged military war but the Trump administration’s campaign of “maximum pressure” and Soleimani’s assassination mean the two foes remain on collision course.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
7. Why Trump Rejects the Need from Middle Eastern Oil
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It is the geopolitics rather than the economics of energy that will drive US interest, particularly as it regards efforts to change Iranian policies, if not the Iranian regime, as well as the longer-term power balance in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
8. US-Iran tensions: East Asian Perspectives
- Author:
- Scott Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On the 3rd of January 2020, the United States signalled its intent to escalate tensions with Iran, through the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds forces, in Iraq. Following attacks from Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia on the American embassy in Baghdad, the escalation took place on a backdrop of worsening US-Iranian relations, focused on the US withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear deal (and Iran’s subsequent rollback of key commitments), the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Iran, and increasing tensions in the Straits of Hormuz. Such tensions have been met with concern in East Asia, particularly among countries that have been steadily expanding their relationships with Iran. Responses, however, reflect a continuation of business as normal rather than any great change. While Malaysia, for example, has condemned the assassination in line with their growing closeness to Iran, there has been no tangible change of policy. Indonesia, who has developed a relationship but emphasised their desire to remain neutral in the Iran-Saudi tensions, have avoided making overt statements in support of Iran or condemning US action. For the most part, therefore, Southeast Asian states have been unwilling and unable to abandon their relationship with the US and other key states such as Saudi Arabia, or isolate themselves by supporting Iran overtly. For other East Asian states, overtly supporting Iran runs the risks of encouraging the escalation of the conflict and the damaging of their interests, such as is the case with China. As such, this paper will argue that while the perception surrounding Soleimani’s assassination among East Asia is for the most part negative, this will not fundamentally impact on their relationship with the US or spur a further shift to Iran. Instead, in the face of continuing US pressure on Iran, Iran’s relationships within East Asia have begun to ultimately suffer. This paper will begin by analysing the expansion of Iran’s relationship with East Asian states before going on to argue how these are likely to decline in future despite these countries’ concerns of US actions as well as actions of other important states such as Saudi Arabia. While Iran has expanded its relationship with a number of partners in East Asia, this paper will focus on relationships Iran finds particularly important. Primarily, this is Malaysia and Indonesia, who, as countries with Muslim majority populations, have seen their involvement with Iran growing at a faster pace than others but in relationships mired in complexity. It will also consider China’s perspective; a relationship that has taken on importance for different reasons.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Conflict, Qassem Soleimani, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Malaysia, Middle East, East Asia, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
9. Ethiopia’s Challenging Path to the 2020 Ballots
- Author:
- Anwar A. Bashir
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since Abiy become the new prime minister of Ethiopia, Ethiopian politics has taken a new turn. He has released political prisoners, promoted media freedom and increased inclusion of women into the political arena. He has also invited the opposition to the discussion table, and reduced tension in the 18-year feud between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As a result, some politically-oriented Ethiopians believe Abiy has taken exquisite and peerless actions. There are also several reprehensible issues, which have started under his tenure. Communal violence has peaked whilst agreements with opposition groups was met with skepticism. Moreover, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ethiopia has reached a zenith due to the ethnic violence, for which human rights organizations have heavily criticized Ethiopia’s leadership. Several political analysts note that Abiy’s transformations are only a veneer, because his agreement with oppositions groups are yet to be implemented, especially with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the oldest opposition in the country. This skepticism from the opposition has resulted in a new coalition party aimed at undermining the incumbent government in the upcoming Ethiopian 2020 election. Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), the second oldest opposition has complained of mistreatment by the leadership of the Somali region. Outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party has asserted, “Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections.” On the other hand, Abiy disbanded the longest ruling party in the country, the EPRDF, an action that has resulted in a widening dichotomy within his inner-circle. Jawar, an Oromo media tycoon, has tremendous support from the youth, especially since the Oromo region has boycotted Abiy’s policies. With all these various issues and considerations, there is much anticipation as to how the upcoming elections will unfold.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea
10. The Emergence of Another African Conflict: Egypt, Ethiopia and Geopolitics of the Renaissance Dam
- Author:
- Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Very few consider that despite the possibility of conflict or cooperation, such changes in the exploitation of the Nile River resources are due to changing relations and the need to address long-standing unfair and hegemonic approaches to trans-boundary resource sharing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt
11. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 1)
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- One should highlight the distance between fiction and reality. However, a number of China politics observers and Western military officials have claimed a strong link between Coronavirus and recent research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
12. The Shifting Geopolitics of Coronavirus and the Demise of Neoliberalism – (Part 2)
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- What is needed now, more than ever, is a public debate of moral autonomy of citizens in redefining the rights and obligations of the state and reconstructing their moral authority. The debate needs to kick off on a blank slate.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Neoliberalism, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
13. Moscow's Maneuvres for Mediterranean Bases and ME Markets
- Author:
- Zaki Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- By carrying on the activities of the Russian military contingents in Syria and with its backing of Libya’s renegade general Khalifa Haftar, Moscow seeks to reassert its role in the Mediterranean and leverage a strategy for generating low-risk yet high yield wins.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Mediterranean
14. Africa Versus Coronavirus: Four Much-Needed Capabilities
- Author:
- Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- For many African countries, prevention of Coronavirus has no alterative as financial and structural demands of treatment far exceed capabilities. Without stricter measures, the infection curve will be exponential and flattening it will take a long time with more deaths.
- Topic:
- Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa
15. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 1
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Leadership in crisis can be a mixture of science, history, and art. It derives from the need for being well-informed with data and dynamics, well-enlightened with best practices and matured wisdom among previous leaders in similar challenging times.
- Topic:
- Governance, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. Eight Heads of States versus Coronavirus: A Leadership Comparative Question – Part 2
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It seems to be a three-way failure of leadership, national public policies, as well as international institutions, and should not be overshadowed by mere crisis management. By April 12, the infection cases escalated to 1,781,383 with 108,864 deaths worldwide.
- Topic:
- Government, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. The U.S.-Iran Showdown: Clashing Strategic Universes Amid a Changing Region
- Author:
- Ross Harrison
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and Iran are poised for a showdown. Understanding where we are today with this conflict and where we are likely to go in the future requires that we look at the conflicting strategic doctrines between the United States and Iran against a backdrop of a shifting Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
18. China’s Battle with Coronavirus: Possible Geopolitical Gains and Real Challenges
- Author:
- Jean-Pierre Cabestan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- China has tried to take advantage of the Coronavirus crisis to boost its international role and status. Nonetheless, China’s own mistakes in battling the virus as well as diplomatic aggressiveness have raised doubts about its capacity to become a world leader.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
19. The Trump-Iran Showdown: A Conflict Resolution Perspective
- Author:
- Richard E. Rubenstein and Oakley Thomas Hill
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Why would Trump run the risk of a war by assassinating Iran’s most effective general? Conventional Realist explanations do not answer the question adequately. The imperial strategy and the American Empire’s decline points toward a more convincing (and alarming) explanation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
20. Awaiting A Post-Coronavirus Dawn: What Kind of Recovery?
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- What kind of economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis should we expect? Attempts to answer this question must start by acknowledging an unusually high degree of uncertainty about the immediate future. There is uncertainty about the recurrence of the virus, about how policy makers will balance public health and economic goals, and about the ability of governments to ramp up their capacity to test, trace and isolate the infected, thereby making it safe for others to return to work. Further sources of uncertainty include the behavioral responses of households and investors, the sustainability of the extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies adopted in response to the crisis, and the extent to which economic organization will change in the new public-health environment. These aspects of the current crisis and their contrasts with crises past suggest that recovery from the Covid-19 crisis will be bumpy, subdued and above all uncertain, and that it will differ in Europe and the United States.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America
21. Responding to Kissinger: The Risks of Remodeling Neoliberalism and Manipulating the Enlightenment values
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Kissinger aims to skip any debate of the financial elitist performance of Neoliberalism. He seeks to dissipate concerns over a post-Coronavirus reality with some romanticized Enlightenment values. He expects the world’s democracies “to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values.”
- Topic:
- Finance and Neoliberalism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
22. Into Orbit: Iran’s Nour 1 Satellite and the Two-Wing Doctrine
- Author:
- Ali Akbar Dareini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- “The Central Intelligence Agency has been secretly supplying Iraq with detailed intelligence, including data from sensitive U.S. satellite reconnaissance photography, to assist Iraqi bombing raids on Iran’s oil terminals and power plants in the war between the two nations … Iraq reportedly used the intelligence to calibrate attacks with mustard gas on Iranian ground troops.” (1) This was a Washington Post report in 1986. “In 1988, during the waning days of Iraq’s war with Iran, the United States learned through satellite imagery that Iran was about to gain a major strategic advantage by exploiting a hole in Iraqi defenses. U.S. intelligence officials conveyed the location of the Iranian troops to Iraq, fully aware that (Saddam) Hussein’s military would attack with chemical weapons, including sarin, a lethal nerve agent.” (2) This was part of one of the declassified CIA documents published by Foreign Policy on 26 August 2013. Satellite imagery, communications intercepts and CIA assessments forwarded by the United States to Iraqi commanders showing ‘where the Iranian weaknesses were’ led to the death of many Iranian soldiers and civilians during the bloody 1980-88 war. That bitter and costly experience left a profound impact on the minds of Iranian military strategists. Having an intelligence eye to watch enemies from the sky and prevent similar disasters in the future preoccupied their brains. At the outset, possessing instruments of visual observation in the sky appeared to be a dream for many Iranians. But that would be a long-term project to make sure that Iran would not suffer again. Reconnaissance satellite is now widely seen as a strategic asset enabling states possessing this technology to obtain first-hand key information about the activities and resources of their enemies. It also enables states to protect their national security in this competitive world. This paper argues that great powers threaten weaker states. And regional powers like Iran have no option to survive but to get strong in order not to be bullied. It also argues that Iran, by successfully launching its “first military satellite” into orbit, has demonstrated a new capability that may shift the balance of power in its favor amid increasing tensions with the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
23. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 1
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
- Topic:
- Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
24. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 2
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
25. How Arab States Take on Coronavirus: Morocco as a Case Study
- Author:
- Mohammed Issam Laaroussi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Tremendous socio-economic and political challenges are facing Morocco during the Coronavirus crisis. Regardless of the promising signs of a short-term momentum in unity and institutional trust, the institutional weaknesses in the public policy and healthcare system have not disappeared.
- Topic:
- Politics, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Arab Countries, and Morocco
26. Beyond Health: Looking for Europe’s Strategy vis-à-vis the COVID-19 Crisis
- Author:
- Thibaud Deruelle
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Europe is among the most affected regions in the world by the spread of COVID-19. The continent was designated in March 2020 as the new epicenter of the pandemic and Europe’s recovery strategy to the crisis seems to be threatened by a lack of solidarity. This paper analyses how the European Union (EU) governance system has – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It examines how the insufficiencies of the EU governance system have – so far – conditioned the construction of a modest coordinated European response to the crisis. It suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity(1) rather than a make-or-break event. Crises in the EU are important catalysts of change(2) and offer a propitious context for policy learning.(3) This paper suggests that COVID-19 is a learning opportunity rather than a make-or-break event. Two lessons are highlighted: first, this crisis shows that if Europeans bet on solidarity as an incentive to cooperate, their chances to produce prompt and ambitious responses are slim and overshadowed by power-struggles on what the governance of the EU ought to be. Second, while the crisis started as a public health problem, the crux of the debate is now centered on a common economic recovery strategy. The challenge ahead will be to avoid that lessons learned about public health are cannibalized by economic affairs.
- Topic:
- Governance, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
27. Trump’s Presidency: Nuances of Leadership versus Management of Crises
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The current riots across America represent a moment of rebuttal at the conjuncture between an exit from the Coronavirus dilemma and Trump’s pursuit of a second term a few weeks before the National Conventions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Crisis Management, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
28. The Lingering Stalemate: Qatar’s Blockade Awaits a Mediation Exit
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On June 6, 2020, the Qatari crisis entered its fourth year with two parallel political discourses, which have endured the complexity of issues between Qatar and the Quartet [Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt] since early June 2017: a) diplomatic hopes in the U.S.-backed Kuwaiti mediation amidst several gestures of rapprochement between the Qataris and the Saudis; and b) disparity of positions by the disputing parties while maintaining status quo politics. The Trump administration has urged the Quartet capitals to reopen their airspace for Qatari airlines as a step toward ending the open-ended blockade. The Wall Street Journal quoted U.S. officials saying "there is a greater sense of urgency to resolve the airspace issue. It's an ongoing irritation for us that money goes into Iran's coffers due to Qatar Airways overflights." (1) The Trump White House has been irritated by the so-called "overfly fees" that Qatar pays to Iran to use its airspace. There is growing hope Washington’s call will trigger momentum for lifting the land and sea blockade imposed on Qatar as well. Qatar’s foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani hopes “the initiative will produce results, we are open to dialogue and ready to meet each step forward with 10 steps from our side.” (2) Unlike the Saudis, the Emiratis have maintained the 2017 demands, and UAE Foreign Minister Anwar Gargash insists “this issue will stay with us, and we have to manage it in a better way until we reach a future stage.” He has often characterized the blockade as “a result of Doha's interference policies," and argued "the solution for this crisis should be based on dealing with the causes of it." (3) As a result, the three-year blockade is causing a hurting stalemate for both sides of the Gulf conflict. In his new book “Qatar and the Gulf Crisis”, Kristian C. Ulrichsen argues the blockade has become “stuck at a political level where the Saudi and Emirati leadership—and especially Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed—appear reluctant to make the first move to offer concessions or progress to a negotiated compromise.” (4) This paper examines some major narrative turns of the Quartet-Qatar showdown and the transformation of Trump’s position. It traces the possibility of a de-escalation shift along Washington’s pursuit of mediation in the framework of the Kuwaiti diplomacy; and weighs on the future of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as a counterbalance of the Arab Gulf strategic (dis)unity and common existentialism in a turbulent region.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi
29. The Hard Chess Puzzle: Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ versus Iran’s ‘Maximum Resistance’
- Author:
- Kayhan Barzegar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the dice of the “maximum pressure” and “maximum resistance” policies are rotating between Iran and the United States, a new synthesis, seemingly satisfactory for both parties, emerges and that is appealing to a “minimum containment” policy and avoiding an unwanted war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
30. The Pandemic Makes Politics Worse: The Unites States as a Case Study
- Author:
- Jennifer Nicoll Victor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Covid-19 makes politics worse because it has generated not only greater awareness about many inequalities in the US, but it also has sharpened those inequalities. Unfortunately, inequalities such as those discussed here have a way of becoming self-perpetuating.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
31. The Islamic Group and Lebanon’s Popular Uprising*
- Author:
- Chafic Choucair
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- While a number of key and effective groups within the Lebanese regime stood against the Hirak movement, other parties, though few in number, provided the popular movement with unconditional support, as in the case of the Islamic Group (al-Jama’ah al-Islamiya).
- Topic:
- Politics, Islamism, Hezbollah, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
32. COVID-19: The Lingering Conflict and the Regional Balance of Power in Yemen
- Author:
- Moosa Elayah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The longer the pandemic lasts, with its detrimental financial and social effects, the higher the chances for terrorist groups to increase their influence in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria and spread this to neighbouring countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
33. Energy Geopolitics in 2019
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The extraordinary criticism that Saudi Arabia is under holds the potential for the US Congress enacting legislation against OPEC. Anti-trust legislation would have turbulent impact on the global energy market in that such pressure could lead members withdrawing from OPEC.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. Social Capital between State and Society in Morocco: An Outside-in Reflection
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since 2017, the decline of social capital in Morocco represents a tree that hides a forest. We are now at an interlocking point of two negative trends in this decline: one is political vertical, and the other is societal horizontal.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Morocco
35. Global Compact for Migration: Security Constraints versus Humanitarian Morality in the Case of Morocco
- Author:
- Anna Jacobs
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Morocco’s migration policy reflects of the interconnectedness of foreign policy priorities, desired reform and the reality of domestic politics. Morocco has positioned itself as a counterterrorism and migration ally for Europe; while leaning toward the African Union, and African markets.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Migration, International Affairs, and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Do Trump’s Sanctions on Iran Fulfill Their Objectives?
- Author:
- Fatima Al-Smadi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The sanctions affect Iran in many ways, not only in economic terms. This paper examines the impact of sanctions on Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
37. Intra-Gulf Relations: The Dilemma of Strategic Void and Fragmentation (1971- 2018)
- Author:
- Mohammed Al-Misfer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Through a meditative and forward-looking vision, the book examines the relations of the GCC states from the council’s pre-establishment stage to its post-establishment phase. The book also looks at the different paths of cooperation and conflicts that have occurred in the intra-Gulf relations and their evolution during the last three decades of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty first. The book also explains the various local, regional and international factors that have influenced and continue to influence relations between the GCC countries both negatively and positively.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Global Security
- Political Geography:
- Gulf Nations
38. “Let it Spoil!”: Morocco’s Boycott and the Empowerment of ‘Regular’ Citizen
- Author:
- Mohammed Masbah
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The unfulfilled promises of 2011 reversed citizens’ optimism, and hence pushed them to take to the street once again. While Moroccan authorities’ crackdown had intimidated protesters, boycotters learned the lessons and chose a different strategy.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Morocco
39. The “Deal of the Century”: The Final Stage of the Oslo Accords
- Author:
- Joseph Massad
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump’s “Deal of the century” is the final phase of the 1993 Oslo Accords, which formalized the final liquidation of the Palestinian anti-colonial national struggle for independence and liberation. The “Deal” is nothing more or less than the last step of the so-called “peace process.” In order to understand the aims of the “Deal,” we need to go back to the Oslo Accords, which anticipated this step and assiduously prepared the ground for it. Since the beginning of the so-called “peace process” inaugurated in Madrid in 1991, the PLO, through its unofficial negotiators, conceded Palestinian rights one by one, in a gradual process culminating in the official PLO signing of the Declaration of Principles in Washington D.C. on September 13, 1993.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
40. Imran Khan CPEC Diplomacy: Remodelling Trade Politics between Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and China
- Author:
- James M. Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan lands in Beijing on November 3, the latest head of government to seek a renegotiation of commercial terms and/or focus of projects related to China’s infrastructure and energy-driven Belt and Road initiative. He follows in the footsteps of his Malaysian counterpart, Mahathir Mohamad has suspended US$26 billion in Chinese-funded projects; while Myanmar is negotiating a significant scaling back of a Chinese-funded port project on the Bay of Bengal from one that would cost US$ 7.3 billion to a more modest development that would cost US$1.3 billion in a bid to avoid shouldering an unsustainable debt. China has also witnessed pushback and rising anti-Chinese sentiment in countries as far flung as Kazakhstan, Nepal, and Denmark
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
41. Jamal Khashoggi: The Intellectual and his ‘Incomplete’ Chapter…!
- Author:
- Jamal Khashoggi and Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Saudi intellectual and journalist Jamal Khashoggi was among a diverse group of panelists at a joint international conference, hosted by Aljazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS) and Johns Hopkins University (JHU) in Washington June 12, 2018, to discuss the topic “Shaping a New Balance of Power in the Middle East: Regional Actors, Global Powers, and Middle East Strategy”. In the morning, participants in the first panel “Dynamics of Political Geography in the Middle East” and the second panel “Non-State Actors and Shadow Politics” gave rather deconstructive perspectives on several recent trends in the politics of the region. They probed into several modalities of what seems to be competitive strategies of various global and regional actors and non-state actors in the Gulf, the Middle East, and North Africa.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. The 3-R Dilemma: Religiosity of Peace, Realism of War, and Regressed Subidentities in the Middle East [Part 2]
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- North Africa and the Middle East are struggling with their present; let alone how to shape their future. The promise of the 2011 uprisings has turned into growing malaise and widespread deception by the poor performance of Islamist, secular, military, nationalist, and other brands of Arab governments. After seven years of high expectations, the Arab story of reform and democratization has become a daunting cliffhanger. The main question now is how we got here. Why there is so much concentration of conflict and violence in this strategic region located at the heart of the world with enormous natural and human resources. Why is there still dire shortage of democratic steps and civility in the Arab public discourse across the region? One good example in Saudi Arabia, Tweeter has served as the best weapon of mass stigmatization of Qatari officials and their allies. Another intriguing question; what prevents Arab societies from forging a smooth path to modernity, welfare, and democracy? Are there any real prospects of an Arab age of enlightenment to help address this difficult Arab pregnancy of democracy?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. The 3-R Dilemma: Religiosity of Peace, Realism of War, and Regressed Subidentities in the Middle East [Part 1]
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- North Africa and the Middle East are struggling with their present; let alone how to shape their future. The promise of the 2011 uprisings has turned into growing malaise and widespread deception by the poor performance of Islamist, secular, military, nationalist, and other brands of Arab governments. After seven years of high expectations, the Arab story of reform and democratization has become a daunting cliffhanger. The main question now is how we got here. Why there is so much concentration of conflict and violence in this strategic region located at the heart of the world with enormous natural and human resources. Why is there still dire shortage of democratic steps and civility in the Arab public discourse across the region? One good example in Saudi Arabia, Tweeter has served as the best weapon of mass stigmatization of Qatari officials and their allies. Another intriguing question; what prevents Arab societies from forging a smooth path to modernity, welfare, and democracy? Are there any real prospects of an Arab age of enlightenment to help address this difficult Arab pregnancy of democracy?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
44. The Presumed Trump-Kim ‘Denuclearization’ Deal: A View from Tokyo
- Author:
- Koki Ishigohoka
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- President Donald Trump is considering holding a second summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un “sometime next year, sometime early next year [2019].” (1) The Trump-Kim relationship, which was clearly an attitude of mutual diversion at first, has now entered a new phase. Russia and China are providing major support to North Korea, with the aim of holding a five-way round of talks including South Korea and the United States. (2) Since heading his new government in 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears to be cut out of the loop despite his ‘new level of pressure’.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
45. Hezbollah and the Battle of Arsal: Restoration in the Lebanese Centre
- Author:
- Chafic Choucair
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The battle of Arsal occurred in the context of a gradual easing of the Syrian conflict after its unprecedented exacerbation, and the party’s efforts to confront regional and international developments that target it. However, it also revealed the party’s multiple hegemonies over Lebanese authority.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Lebanon and Syria
46. Israeli Settlers Acts of Violence and Attacks in the Occupied Territory of the De Jure State of Palestine
- Author:
- Basheer Al Zoghbi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the phenomenon of settlers’ acts of violence and attacks directed against Palestinian civilian population, civilian property and livelihood in the occupied territory of the de jure State of Palestine in the context of international humanitarian law and human rights law.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Palestine
47. Crisis in Mindanao: Duterte and the Islamic State’s Pivot to Asia
- Author:
- Richard Javad Heydarian
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Shortly after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte embarked on a high-profile state visit to Russia, a legion of Islamic State-affiliated groups launched a daring siege on Marawi, the Philippines’ largest Muslim-majority city.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Asia
48. How has Qatar Fended Amidst a Sociopolitical and Economic Blockade by its Neighbours?
- Author:
- Thembisa Fakude
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The haphazard nature of the political campaign by the anti-Qatar forces demonstrated serious political immaturity and the over-estimation of the power of money in politics and shaping world opinion.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
49. Counterterrorism and Neo-Machiavellism in International Relations
- Author:
- Dr. Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The new approach of the U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East has increasingly pivoted around possible ways of fighting radical groups with various denominations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
50. Rwanda and President Kagame
- Author:
- Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- After winning 98.6 percent of the votes , President Paul Kagame was inaugurated for his third term in office on 18 August 2017.
- Topic:
- International Security and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Rwanda
51. Europe and the Gulf Crisis
- Author:
- Stasa Salacanin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The GCC crisis has put all international actors, including Europe, in a complicated position, and as ever louder calls for the greater engagement in the mediation process comes at challenging times as Europe is facing countless problems at home.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
52. Saudi Arabia alters its foreign policy on various fronts: Why now?
- Author:
- Thembisa Fakude
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent developments in Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy towards Syria, Iraq and Yemen have created great confusion. A “bastion of Sunni Islam”, Saudi Arabia has made controversial political decisions that have resulted in immense criticism from across the world.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
53. Saudi Vision 2030 and the Consequences of the Gulf Crisis
- Author:
- Naser al-Tamimi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Saudi government has begun an ambitious process of economic reforms, but internal resistance and external disturbances – worsened by the Gulf crisis – are increasing costs and may lead to its failure.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
54. Saudi Arabia and its neighbours: A troubled relationship
- Author:
- Madawi al-Rasheed
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Riyadh is keen to impose guardianship on its Gulf neighbours, but most of them resist, which mires the Gulf system in recurring conflicts. This will not be settled definitively unless their relations are based on the principles of equality and mutual respect.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
55. The Gulf Crisis: Demonising Qatar through Fabrication
- Author:
- Dr. Mohamed Erraji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews the role of media fabrication and propaganda in the current political crisis in the Gulf. Propagandists have deliberately created a new political reality to demonise Qatari politics and political leaders with a detailed political approach to create a prefabricated reality.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
56. Making Sense of Turkey’s Strategy towards the new Gulf Crisis
- Author:
- Murat Yeşiltaş
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey's current strategic move is it is a continuation of Turkey’s new vision for regional politics within the context of the new regional geopolitical realities.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
57. Qatar’s battle for LNG market share
- Author:
- Stasa Salacanin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2005, Qatar imposed a self-moratorium on future gas developments in the North Field, but has recently lifted it in defence of the country’s leading LNG market share as new global players rapidly expand their production.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
58. Ben Gardane Attacks: Achievements and Failures
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The 7 March 2016 attacks on Ben Gardane by Islamic State (IS) occurred in the context of growing upheaval in next-door Libya, internal government tension in Tunisia and challenges faced by Tunisia’s security apparatus after several armed attacks in the country during 2015. This policy brief examines the security, political and regional contexts of the Ben Gardane attack, the positive and negative aspects of the state’s response and addresses preventative measures the state is likely to take in the future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia