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202. Citizens' Perceptions on Kosovo's EU Integration Perspective and Regional and International Cooperation
- Author:
- Dea Fetiu and Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This Western Balkans Security Barometer report examines the perceptions of Kosovo citizens about Kosovo's EU integration process, and the regional and international cooperation. This report consists of two sections. The first section analyzes the public perceptions towards the EU integration, Kosovo’s progress in fulfilling the EU membership criteria, the bilateral relations, and the influence of EU countries towards Kosovo, and an assessment of the EU as a mediator in the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. The second section addresses regional cooperation within the Western Balkans countries, the bilateral relations, and the influence of these countries towards Kosovo. The analysis of this report is based on the results of the survey through face-to-face interviews with randomly selected respondents throughout Kosovo, in September, 2021.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
203. The impact of disinformation and political polarization during COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo
- Author:
- Shpat Balaj and Skender Perteshi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This report is an attempt to document instances of disinformation and political polarization during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kosovo and to trace their implications in shaping the public’s attitudes to the pandemic and the pandemic’s management. Through a set of mixed methods, which include desk research, media monitoring, focus group queries and public opinion instruments, the report identifies the most frequent disinformation narratives encountered in Kosovo’s public domain, studies the way they connect to global and regional narratives related to COVID-19 pandemic and investigates how key upheavals in the country’s political environment undermined Kosovo’s vaccination bid and contributed to public’s vaccines reluctance and the subsequent record number of deaths. Through examples in Kosovo, the report corroborates recent scholarly finds that examine the public’s trust in government and that country’s vulnerability to disinformation. The report shows that the trust towards the institutions, and the politicization of public health issues, affects the public perceptions around public health issues, resulting in an environment with more potential for the penetration of disinformation. In this vein, the report concludes that the mainstream media’s efforts to produce and provide credible information to the public about COVID-19 is challenged by the presence of false and fake news and conspiracies about the virus and the pandemic disseminated primarily through social media and unverified online sources.
- Topic:
- COVID-19, Disinformation, Polarization, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
204. Kosovo citizens perceptions of violent extremism and reintegration and rehabilitation of the returnees
- Author:
- Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- Kosovo citizens continue to perceive violent extremism as a threat for the national security of Kosovo. Majority (76%) of the WBSB respondents believe that violent extremism presents a high threat or a threat for Kosovo. As per the forms of violent extremism, Kosovo citizens see the ethno/national based violence as the most threating, with 42 percent of respondents sharing the opinion that it presents a high threat for the security of Kosovo. Political based violence is perceived as a high threat for the security of Kosovo by 38 percent of the WBSB respondents, while religious based violence is perceived as threatening by 34 percent of the respondents. Kosovo, as other European countries, have faced challenges with respect to participation of citizens in foreign conflicts. The WBSB data shows that 37 percent of the respondents see citizens that participated in the war zones in Syria and Iraq and returned to Kosovo, as a high threat potential for the country.
- Topic:
- National Security, Public Opinion, Violent Extremism, Rehabilitation, Reintegration, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
205. Citizens perceptions of integrity of public institutions in Kosovo
- Author:
- Shpat Balaj
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- The Kosovo Security Forces, the Kosovo Police, the President of Kosovo and the Municipalities are the most trusted public institutions in Kosovo, with over 50 percent of respondents declaring that they trust or completely trust these institutions. This is followed by the Kosovo Customs and the Kosovo Intelligence Agency with 45 percent of respondents sharing such an opinion. On the other hand, less than 40 percent of the respondents declared that they trust or completely trust Courts, Prosecution, Kosovo Correctional Services, the Government of Kosovo and the Kosovo Assembly. The results of the report show that citizens of Kosovo find the security institutions more reliable with a higher level of trust towards them, compared to other public institutions in Kosovo, such as the justice institutions which citizens perceive less trustworthy and with weak integrity. The citizen confidence in the institutions of the Courts and the Prosecution in Kosovo has been consistently in decline, and this is concerning. Citizens have higher confidence in the public institutions from the central level, especially when compared to the previous year (2020), however, the skepticism towards these institutions generally prevails.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Public Opinion, Institutions, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
206. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation
- Author:
- Daniel Solomon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
- Topic:
- Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
207. Promoting the Inclusion of Europe’s Migrants and Minorities in Arts and Culture
- Author:
- Lucía Salgado and Liam Patuzzi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Decades of sustained immigration have transformed many European cities into mosaics of different cultures. Yet this diversity is not always mirrored in the art celebrated in museums, the plays produced in major theaters, and the music heard in concert halls. In addition, well-intended efforts to celebrate ethnic and cultural diversity through art and culture run the risk of overemphasizing differences, exoticizing minority groups rather than contributing to the normalization of diversity within society. But this status quo may be changing. Widespread anti-racism protests have prompted long-overdue conversations about mis- and under-representation of minorities as well as discrimination in the cultural scene. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions have placed further financial strains on the already fragile cultural sector, challenging organizations to reach new audiences in new ways. This MPI Europe report, which draws on interviews with cultural professionals from 11 European countries, explores approaches to strengthening the participation of migrant and minority communities in arts and culture, with potential benefits for immigrant integration outcomes, social cohesion, and the vibrancy and sustainability of cultural institutions. It examines migrants’ and minorities’ inclusion on three levels: as visitors of cultural venues and consumers of art, as featured artists and performers, and as leaders and staff within cultural institutions. The research was conducted within the framework of the Urban Agenda Partnership on the Inclusion of Migrants and Refugees, co-led by the City of Amsterdam and the European Commission and funded by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs.
- Topic:
- Migration, Arts, Culture, Minorities, European Union, Integration, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Europe
208. Destination-Country Policies to Foster Diaspora Engagement in Development
- Author:
- Kathleen Newland
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- It is now widely recognized that emigrants and their descendants contribute greatly to the development of their countries of origin or ancestry, not only with remittances but also by starting businesses, through exchanges of knowledge, and more. And many migrant-origin countries have invested in connecting with their diaspora and leveraging its contributions. Far less attention has gone, though, to how countries of destination with substantial official development assistance programs are supporting—or could support—their resident diasporas’ engagement in the development of countries of origin. This report explores the diaspora engagement actions and policies of Western donor governments—including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United States—highlighting distinctive features. It considers a variety of modes of engagement, such as assistance with forming or strengthening diaspora organizations, grants for diaspora-led development projects, consultations, skills circulation initiatives, and support for entrepreneurship. The report also explores why more destination countries have not (consistently) operated diaspora-for-development programs, and offers lessons about effectiveness and sustainability.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, International Organization, Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, Governance, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
209. From Fear to Solidarity: The Difficulty in Shifting Public Narratives about Refugees
- Author:
- Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Refugees and asylum seekers are alternatively depicted as heroes or security threats, victims or exceptional workers, exemplary neighbors or opportunists. And though public narratives are sometimes described as a binary, in reality, people can hold multiple, competing beliefs and opinions about forced migration and its impacts on society. They may, for example, experience pride in their country’s humanitarian response and compassion for refugees alongside anxiety over changing cultural norms or fear of competition for scarce jobs, each of which can become more or less salient under different circumstances. These public attitudes can create or constrain the space needed for sensible and creative policy responses, as well as community cohesion. As a result, governments, international organizations, and advocates have invested in myriad programs and campaigns to bolster solidarity and defuse negative reactions to forced migrants. Yet, as this study discusses, changing people’s minds is far from straightforward. This report—the first in the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the different narratives that tend to emerge in communities welcoming forced migrants, looking at a variety of geographic, socioeconomic, and historical contexts. It also explores two categories of interventions that aim to address negative narratives about refugees and asylum seekers: information campaigns that aim to defuse threat narratives and “contact-building” initiatives that seek to build connections between refugees and host communities. The report concludes by offering strategies to promote solidarity and mitigate tensions.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Employment, Refugees, Economy, Asylum, Integration, Social Cohesion, COVID-19, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe
210. The COVID-19 Catalyst: Learning from Pandemic-Driven Innovations in Immigrant Integration Policy
- Author:
- Jasmijn Slootjes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
- Abstract:
- Despite talk of COVID-19 as a “great equalizer,” the pandemic and its economic fallout have hit certain segments of European and North American societies particularly hard. Among them are immigrants and refugees, and especially groups with distinct vulnerabilities, such as refugee children, irregular migrants, and migrant women. Without swift government intervention, the twin public-health and economic crises risk jeopardizing immigrant integration and creating durable rifts in diverse societies. Yet precisely at a time when bold and agile policy responses are needed, the pandemic has disrupted governments’ usual ways of working. When lockdown and social-distancing measures were introduced in 2020, many in-person integration services were suspended, and both these programs and the day-to-day work of governments and civil-society organizations shifted online. This opened new opportunities but also hindered the engagement of migrants, policymakers, and other stakeholders with limited digital access or literacy. This report examines how governments’ immigrant integration strategies, partnerships, and policy priorities have changed in the two years since the pandemic began. It explores how this period of forced adaption has worked as a catalyst for innovation at the local, national, and (in Europe) EU level, drawing on interviews with senior policymakers and other experts in North America and Europe. The report then distills recommendations on how to leverage these innovations to durably improve the governance of immigrant integration.
- Topic:
- Education, Employment, Innovation, COVID-19, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
211. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)
- Author:
- Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, and Katherine L. Kuzminski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.
- Topic:
- NATO, Climate Change, Terrorism, Infrastructure, Elections, Drones, Pandemic, Resilience, Supply Chains, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
212. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)
- Author:
- Carl V. Evans, Chris Anderson, Malcom Baker, Ronald Bearse, and Salih Biçakci
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking in the fields of academe, emergency management, and the industry practitioner community was a handbook that leveraged the collective subject matter expertise of the core lecturer team, a handbook that could serve to educate government leaders, state and private-sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, academicians, and policymakers in NATO and partner countries. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency is the culmination of such an effort, the first major collaborative research project under a Memorandum of Understanding between the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), and NATO COE-DAT. The research project began in October 2020 with a series of four workshops hosted by SSI. The draft chapters for the book were completed in late January 2022. Little did the research team envision the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, successive missile attacks against Ukraine’s electric generation and distribution facilities, rail transport, and cyberattacks against almost every sector of the country’s critical infrastructure have been on world display. Russian use of its gas supplies as a means of economic warfare against Europe—designed to undermine NATO unity and support for Ukraine—is another timely example of why adversaries, nation-states, and terrorists alike target critical infrastructure. Hence, the need for public-private sector partnerships to secure that infrastructure and build the resiliency to sustain it when attacked. Ukraine also highlights the need for NATO allies to understand where vulnerabilities exist in host nation infrastructure that will undermine collective defense and give more urgency to redressing and mitigating those fissures.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Risk Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
213. The Coming Storm: Insights from Ukraine about Escalation in Modern War
- Author:
- Benjamin Jensen and Adrian Bogart
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Based on three crisis simulations held in late March 2022 with think tank fellows, military planners, and congressional staffers, The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will likely struggle to address escalation vectors almost certain to push the current war in Ukraine beyond the country’s borders. This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events: (1) a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in southeast Poland, and (2) Russian use of chemical weapons along the Polish border while simultaneously mobilizing to threaten the Baltics. As the conflict crossed a key threshold and risked becoming a regional war, most participants found a natural pull to escalate in each scenario despite limited expectations of achieving a position of competitive advantage. Analyzing how individuals and teams approached decision making provides insights on rethinking escalation models in the twenty-first century and taking advantage of new concepts and capabilities to better support signaling during a crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
214. The Need for a New NATO Force Planning Exercise
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Grace Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- NATO countries have already provided massive amounts of military aid to Ukraine, deployed additional forces to support the NATO countries that share a border with Russia, improved the Alliance’s ability to rapidly deploy forces forward in a crisis, and worked with key powers like Poland to strengthen its capabilities. NATO has accepted Finland and Sweden as future members of the Alliance, and it has made numerous other short-term adjustments to its force posture that enhance its deterrence and defense capabilities. NATO faces a future, however, where it cannot predict how much territory Ukraine will lose and where it must now view Russia as an ongoing major threat at virtually every level from the limited conventional threats Russia poses to the NATO countries on its border to the major increases in its threat of strategic nuclear forces. NATO cannot continue to treat Russia as a potential partner, and that seems to be an unlikely path forward so long as Putin or anyone like him is in power. NATO also cannot ignore the rise in China’s military and economic power or the prospects of closer Russian and Chinese strategic cooperation. The challenge NATO faces goes far beyond Ukraine. The days in which NATO countries could keep taking peace dividends by cutting their forces, failing to modernize, and failing to adopt new forces of tactics and interoperability are over. NATO cannot deal with the Russian threat in terms of half-measures or by continuing to focus on empty and virtually meaningless force goals like spending 2% of national GDP on defense and 20% of defense expenditure on equipment. NATO needs to act now to look far beyond the short-term priorities of the Ukraine conflict. It needs to revitalize its entire force planning progress. It needs to create effective levels of deterrence and defense capability, while it modernizes its forces to deal with radically new requirements like joint all-domain operations (JADO), emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs), new precision-strike capabilities, changes in air and missile warfare and defense, and the revival of Russian naval power and the growth of a Chinese blue-water navy. The Emeritus Chair in Strategy has prepared a report, entitled, The Need for a New NATO Force Planning Exercise, that examines how NATO must approach an effective force planning exercise that can give its new strategy real meaning. This report documents the pointless character of NATO’s present emphasis on burdensharing, and it examines the real-world shifts in spending and forces in NATO since 2014, as well as how these changes have affected the national forces in given sectors of Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
215. Securing Semiconductor Supply Chains: An Affirmative Agenda for International Cooperation
- Author:
- William Alan Reinsch, Emily Benson, and Aidan Arasasingham
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Technological innovation has been a driving force for U.S. global leadership and economic prosperity for over a century. This legacy of innovation largely stands on the foundation of a key component: semiconductor chips, found today in almost all electronic products. Semiconductors are an integral component of various consumer products across industries, including cars, smartphones, and household appliances. But semiconductors can also be used in dual-use goods—products that have both military and civilian applications—such as air guidance systems for both civilian and military aircraft. The tension between economic gain and security risk inherent within dual-use semiconductor goods is heightened in fields with national security implications, such as supercomputing and artificial intelligence (AI). How the government and private sector manage the global value chains (GVCs) of chips will directly affect U.S. global competitiveness and national security going forward. Given the evolving security relationship between the United States, the Quad, and the European Union, this paper focuses on both Quad and EU countries and the possibilities for friend-shoring in both. It assesses how the EU and U.S. governments can collaborate to avoid duplicative policies that fail to enhance the overall resiliency of transatlantic semiconductor supply chains.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Science and Technology, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
216. Of Ships and Cyber: Transposing the Incidents at Sea Agreement
- Author:
- Alexander Klimburg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Amid the geopolitical crises caused by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it may seem wildly optimistic—or even bad diplomacy—to consider future arms-control scenarios for cyber operations. However, good policy needs to prepare for the day after tomorrow, and smart policy will look at what has gone wrong today and what can be learned from yesterday. Arguably, one element that may have contributed to rising geopolitical tensions over the past decade has been a lack of clear cyber signals among the main adversaries. This makes it even more urgent to consider what can be learned from past arms-control exercises such as the vaunted Incidents at Sea (INCSEA) Agreement—especially as this accord was conceived in the wake of several of its own perilous crises. In 1962, a lack of agreed signaling protocols nearly led to World War III. According to a riveting account in the 2020 book Nuclear Folly, 1 on October 27, 1962—at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis—the U.S. Navy cornered one of the few Soviet submarines unaccounted for off Cuba. In an effort to convince the Foxtrot-class B-59 submarine to surface, the destroyer USS Cony employed practice depth charges—which were not accurately identified as such by B-59’s beleaguered crew. When, in the middle of the night, the submarine did indeed surface, a low-flying anti-submarine aircraft dropped flares and pyrotechnics so it could take better photographs. This seemed like an attack to the submarine, and the exhausted captain of B-59 ordered a crash dive and speculated that perhaps the war had already broken out. He gave orders to prepare to launch a 10-kiloton nuclear torpedo at the U.S. Navy task force. It took a near-mutiny by senior officers to stop him. This close call remained unknown until fairly recently. But several more prominent naval incidents throughout 1960s convinced the Soviet Union and the United States that a basic common agreement was necessary, and the Cold War “thaw” of the early 1970s made this possible.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Cybersecurity, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
217. Modernizing Ukraine’s Transport and Logistics Infrastructure
- Author:
- Romina Bandura, Janina Staguhn, and Benjamin Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is yielding devastating human and material costs. But with the destruction comes a rare opportunity to modernize Ukraine’s economy by building state-of-the-art infrastructure. Rebuilding hospitals, schools, and housing will be critical to bringing refugees back, while constructing new roads and rail networks alongside ports and airfields could catalyze the economic reconstruction and link the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to global supply chains and markets. Infrastructure investments can achieve a rare combination of political and economic objectives, connecting Ukraine to Europe while helping its large industrial base and educated workforce reach global markets. In other words, rebuilding the transportation and logistics infrastructure in Ukraine provides an opportunity for democratic leaders to realize the vision of the Group of Seven (G7) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). A successful reconstruction would include a Ukraine that is connected to and firmly embedded in the Euro-Atlantic community. Ukraine has a large industrial base, with a well-educated and skilled population that has the potential to build a highly competitive manufacturing sector to complement the European Union. However, to unlock this potential, Ukraine needs to build quality transport and logistics infrastructure (i.e., civilian airports, roads, bridges, ports, and railways) connected to the West. Over the next 10 years, the transport and logistics infrastructure sector will require significant financing, prioritization, and coordination among the Ukrainian government and international actors (bilateral partners, multilateral institutions, and the private sector). Foreign direct investment (FDI), including through long-term public-private partnership and concession contracts financed by the private sector, will also be critical for funding large-scale projects and providing know-how so there is a world-class infrastructure base in Ukraine. International donors and foreign investors need to assess how to best support Ukraine’s future economic and trade recovery, specifically regarding its transport and logistics infrastructure. Ukraine can also be the country where the PGII conducts its first project, testing its capabilities and providing a demonstration for other investors.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Modernization, Transportation, and Logistics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
218. Baltic Conflict: Russia’s Goal to Distract NATO?
- Author:
- Courtney Stiles Herdt and Matthew "BINCS" Zublic
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Baltics are a key strategic region where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russian military and economic interests overlap. Sabotage of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, regardless of who executed the attack, has signaled that conflict in the region is no longer left of bang. Gray zone operations are underway, and the United States, NATO, and their partners need to be ready to act in unity against an increasingly hostile Russia that is now trying to distract attention from its military shortcomings in Ukraine. In this effort, Russia’s playbook will test the limits and try to exploit the seams of the alliance. An exacting response is needed to deny Russia control and ensure full conflict is avoided. The NATO summit in Vilnius will be critical to strengthening resolve and a path forward to a combined strategy to deter further Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and Baltic States
219. A World in Crisis: The “Winter Wars” of 2022–2023
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Paul Cormarie
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- t is obvious that the world now faces a wide range of potential wars and crises. What is far less obvious is the level of confrontation between the U.S. and its strategic partners with both Russia and China, the rising levels of other types of violence that are emerging on a global level, how serious these wars and crises can become, and what kind of future could eventually emerge out of so many different crises, confrontations and conflicts, and trends. These issues are addressed in depth in a new analysis by the Emeritus Chair in Strategy at the CSIS entitled A World in Crisis: The “Winter Wars” of 2022–2023. This analysis explores the risk on the basis that war does not have to mean actual military conflict. Here, it is important to note that avoiding or minimizing combat is scarcely peace. As Sun Tzu pointed out in the Art of War well over 2,000 years ago, “war” does not have to involve the use of military force or any form of actual combat. His statement that “the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting” applies to every form of major military confrontation and gray area warfare between opposing powers. It recognizes that it is all too easy to predict dire outcomes from the War in Ukraine, the current arms races with Russia and China, and growing levels of violence and confrontation between other states. There is still a case, however, for examining the broader impact of the war, the growing intensity of the arms races with Russia and China, and the current overall patterns of global conflict as the world enters the winter of 2022-2023. It is already clear that this will be a deeply troubled winter in many areas of the globe, that the level of confrontation between major powers has risen sharply, that they do seek to subdue the enemy without fighting, and their rivalry has become the equivalent of political and economic warfare. It is equally clear that the wide range of lower-level conflicts between other powers, their civil wars, and the abuses many governments commit against their own citizens are also intensifying, although many of these conflicts have been going on in some form for years or even decades. In far too many cases, the world is not moving toward peace. It is moving towards repression and war. Accordingly, this analysis argues that the world already faces a series of possible and ongoing “Winter Wars” in 2022-2023 that may not escalate to open military conflict but that are wars at the political and economic level and in competition to build-up more lethal military forces both for deterrence and to exert political leverage. It also shows that these “Wars” already pose serious risks and could escalate sharply and in unpredictable ways for at least the next five to ten years.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Rivalry, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
220. Implications of the European Union’s Digital Regulations on U.S. and EU Economic and Strategic Interests
- Author:
- Kati Suominen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the European Union has adopted several sweeping digital regulations, such as the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), while proposing a number of new measures—including the Data Act, the Artificial Intelligence Act, and the Media Freedom Act. These regulations will shape, likely quite dramatically, the environment for doing digital business in Europe and beyond. They will have profound implications on the leading U.S. digital service providers designated by the European Union as “gatekeepers”—large digital services providers that are expected to adhere to regulatory requirements—as well as these companies’ hundreds of millions of transatlantic European business and individual customers. By impacting primarily U.S. companies instead of Asian or European ones, Europe’s digital policies will also shape U.S. and European global strategic and national security interests. This study will assess the potential implications of new and proposed EU digital acts on U.S. digital service providers, on their customers in Europe and the United States, and on the EU and U.S. economies and exports.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Regionalism, Strategic Interests, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
221. Software Power The Economic and Geopolitical Implications of Open Source Software
- Author:
- Alice Pannier
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Open source plays a central role in software development, both in parallel with proprietary software and increasingly intertwined with it. It has become a major factor for companies’ innovation processes and for the success and popularity of their products. For users, using open source software can alleviate risks stemming from proprietary solutions, including data privacy concerns or trade restrictions. Beyond that, open source is the foundation of critical software bricks and Internet languages and protocols. However, open source is a victim of its own success. It suffers of a lack of resources dedicated to the maintenance of open source components, even though vulnerabilities in open source code can have serious consequences, as illustrated by the Log4Shell vulnerability in December 2021. For these reasons, private companies are investing ever more money and human resources in the development and maintenance of open source software, and acquiring structuring roles in the governance of the ecosystem. This support, however, is not without risk for the open source ecosystem, which is increasingly shaped by the private interests of Big Tech companies. Meanwhile, governments are getting increasingly concerned with the cybersecurity implications of open source software, and with risks not only of accidental vulnerabilities, but also manipulation of codes by criminals and foreign agents. The interest of governments in open source is not new, but it is evolving: governments are no longer only seeking to adopt open source or to develop software solutions, but also to contribute to the financing or even the governance of open source ecosystems, at the national and/or global level. An analysis of the United States, Chinese and European cases show that government involvement in open source is not only pragmatic; it is increasingly politicized, and serves to uphold governments’ ambitions for national security, international influence, or digital sovereignty. The study highlights the dilemmas that emerge, for public authorities, from the tensions between the desire to secure universally used, critical open source components, the desire to develop “sovereign” technologies, and the risk of encroaching on the horizontal and decentralized functioning of open source.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Economy, Software, and Open Source
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
222. Military Stockpiles: A Life-Insurance Policy in a High-Intensity Conflict?
- Author:
- Léo Péria-Peigné
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- For the first time after thirty years of budgetary restriction, European armies must face a high-intensity conflict involving heavy human and material losses. Having run down their military stockpiles to the bare minimum, supporting Ukraine has taken a heavy toll on their operational inventory; as modern operational inventories are limited, much decommissioned and older equipment has also been donated. Russia too has mobilized its extensive military stockpiles, inherited from the USSR, to maintain its combat capability after the initial failure of its “special military operation”. Russian efforts to retrofit older systems have also intensified as production of modern equipment has stalled. As a result, we are seeing modern and ancient weapons pitted against each other in Ukraine. This situation raises questions about France’s military storage strategy and prompts comparisons with those of other nations. US forces have kept a significant proportion of their Cold War arsenal in working condition, using it as a valuable commercial, diplomatic, and military asset. This arsenal also allows the United States to dominate the second-hand weapons market as it can supply cheap and almost immediately available systems. In Russia, despite an apparent modernization process, military power still relies on Soviet-era stocks of vehicles and weapons. For the Russian navy, modernization of old hulls is a way to compensate for the slow production of modern ships. Chinese armed forces are being modernized and rationalized: substantial quantities of older equipment could therefore become available before 2030, a potential asset for Chinese diplomacy. In Europe, military stockpiling strategies diverge along a rough east–west line. Western powers such as the United Kingdom and France chose quality over quantity, while Eastern ones, closer to the Russian threat, try to maintain large volumes while also modernizing their equipment. While the war in Ukraine may prompt Western nations to begin a reinforcement program, Eastern European countries such as Poland had already begun their own before 2014 and the Crimea crisis. After the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, France began to restore its military means and budgets, but the overall size of its armed forces is still inadequate to face a high-intensity conflict. The professionalization of the armed forces, the 2008 financial crisis, and budget cuts progressively led to the practice of stockpiling being replaced with a generalized “just-in-time” approach, to reduce infrastructure needs and costs more broadly. French armed forces had to make tough choices with their limited budgets, keeping what was immediately useful to their current missions and abandoning what was not. Operations in Africa and the Middle East and anti-terrorist operations in French cities absorbed considerable budgets, while specialized military units and infrastructure necessary to maintain stocks required for high-intensity conflicts were disbanded. Several initiatives and processes are at work to restore minimum storage capabilities, but a relevant stockpiling strategy, in line with France’s resources and strategic context, is still far off. The French army is building several military reserve units that could drive greater retention of older equipment and vehicles, although compatibility issues with more recent models may arise. As storing combat aircraft would be far too costly, the French Air and Space Force is trying to optimize the availability of its fleet, especially through a new approach to private industry partners in maintenance and training. The French navy has initiated a reform and rationalization process of its spare-parts-storage policy to optimize the availability of its ships as well as their capabilities. A coherent equipment reserve and stockpiling program is an essential component of a military driven by a clear strategic framework. However, in the French case, this strategy is currently being pulled in two directions: between the probable end of expeditionary operations in Africa and the Middle East, and the likelihood of a high-intensity conflict. The whole French stockpiling approach cannot be based entirely on the experience in Ukraine, and it is therefore necessary to evaluate multiple probable scenarios to develop relevant recommendations. A conflict in Eastern Europe fought by a coalition differs from one led by Europe without US support, or from a major crisis in the French territories of the Pacific or Indian Ocean. Moreover, recommendations must reflect military realities, as French resources are limited and would not allow for the creation of a reserve stock strategy similar to that of the United States. To support an allied nation under attack, the French army would need a much expanded ammunition stockpile. Similarly, the French air force lacks advanced munitions, while the French navy needs to rebuild a support fleet sufficient to enable combat operations far away from the French mainland and infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Conflict, Industry, and Armament
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, France, and United States of America
223. Neither Surveillance Nor Algorithm-driven Consumerism: Toward an Alternative European Model for Smart Cities
- Author:
- Jacques Priol and Joé Vincent-Galtié
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Smart city projects take many forms, ranging from the installation of connected street lights to total initiatives such as The Line – the gargantuan and futuristic project carried out by Saudi Arabia. In one form or another, these initiatives are multiplying, guided by the objectives of efficiency and the improvement of public policies. What they have in common is that they mobilize various digital tools and use data to develop and manage public services. As they are exported, these projects also become levers for international influence. Where does Europe stand on this spectrum? While many smart territory projects have already been implemented on the continent, Europe is still looking for its own model. Two models are unanimously rejected: the one promoted by China, and the one implemented by certain North American cities. The first subordinates the smart city to security and social control imperatives and contributes to the constant surveillance of the population. In contrast to this model, which is primarily concerned with control and surveillance on behalf of the State, the Californian-inspired North American model is criticized for its massive use of personal data, which is collected and used by private actors. Users are alarmed by the potential use of this data for commercial purposes and denounce the replacement of democratic decision-making by automated tools. From there, developing a European model requires taking these pitfalls into account and respecting both the issues related to privacy protection and the maintenance of open and democratic procedures. Europe can rely on an ambitious regulatory framework, capable of encouraging the development of smart cities in its territory. This framework can also be a real asset for exporting its model to other continents. European initiatives in the field of smart cities are also part of efforts to promote digital sovereignty. In this respect, matters of standardization, interoperability and infrastructure are at the heart of the debate and must be fully integrated into the projects implemented. They are also subject to intense international competition.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Governance, Geopolitics, Urban, Smart Cities, and Data
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and United States of America
224. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Misleading Doctrine, Misguided Strategy
- Author:
- Pavel Baev
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The blame for committing the blunder of starting the war with Ukraine is deservedly placed on President Vladimir Putin, but a single-explanation interpretation of the unfolding disaster is unsatisfactory. The scope of problems with the chain of command and logistics, scant air support and poor morale indicates that Russian planning and preparations for the war were seriously flawed and misguided. On the level of doctrine, the assertion of Russia’s ability to deter North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), defined as the main adversary, by employing the complete set of nuclear, conventional and “hybrid” capabilities, laid the foundation for the failure of attack on what was presumed to be a frangible Ukraine. Strategic guidelines on gaining a quick and complete victory by establishing air dominance and executing offensive maneuvers by armored battalion tactical groups (BTGs), led to the confusion of poorly coordinated attacks without proper air support. The strategic culture, pro-forma conservative but distorted by bureaucratic sycophancy and corruption, produced inflexible chains of command, demoralization of poorly led combat units and ugly atrocities. The sum total of these flaws is too high for the Russian army to learn useful lessons in the six months of fighting, so it has fallen back on the old pattern of positional warfare based on destroying the enemy by heavy artillery fire. The strategy of protracted war of attrition can lead to victory only if the economy and society are mobilized fully for delivering the necessary resources to the fighting army, but such mobilization—while proceeding in defiant Ukraine—remains politically impossible in discontented, isolated and economically degraded Russia.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
225. Five Years after China’s Plastic Import Ban Have Europeans Taken Responsibility?
- Author:
- Eugénie Joltreau
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- After the 2017 Chinese waste import ban, the international and European Union (EU) legislative framework on waste exports has been revised. • The amendment to the Basel Convention is stricter on the possibility to export plastic waste outside the EU, which has integrated the amendment in the waste shipment regulation (WSR) and is considering further export restrictions. Moreover, a Directive to reduce the use of single-use plastics and stimulate local demand for recycled plastics has been adopted. • The recycling rate of plastic packaging has been deteriorating since 2016 in view of the growing quantities of plastic packaging waste and limited export outlets, despite an increase in the tonnage recycled. Exports of plastic waste from the European Union have been reduced and partly redirected, with some negative environmental impacts reported. The EU demand for certain recycled plastics has boomed, encouraged by the new regulation, yet overall, EU plastic packaging consumption keeps increasing. • The debate on the export ban opposes a view of responsibility for the treatment of waste with the promotion of international waste trade as a means to achieve a global circular economy (for plastics). However, there is no evidence that the waste trade enables to increase the global recycling rate, reduces the use of virgin plastic, and reinforces sustainability. • The European Commission (EC) has released a new legislative proposal that tightens up waste export possibilities but does not ban it.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economy, Recycling, Waste, Imports, and Plastic
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
226. Narrative Warfare: How the Kremlin and Russian news outlets justified a war of aggression against Ukraine
- Author:
- Nika Aleksejeva and Andy Carvin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In the weeks and months leading up to Russia invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kremlin and pro-Kremlin media employed false and misleading narratives to justify military action against Ukraine, mask the Kremlin’s operational planning, and deny any responsibility for the coming war. Collectively, these narratives served as Vladimir Putin’s casus belli to engage in a war of aggression against Ukraine. To research this report, the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) identified recurring pro-Kremlin narratives over two timeframes: the 2014–2021 interwar period and the seventy days leading up to the 2022 invasion. For the interwar period, we reviewed more than 350 fact-checks of pro-Kremlin disinformation. We then collected more than ten thousand examples of false and misleading narratives published by fourteen pro-Kremlin outlets over the seventy-day pre-invasion period. To understand how these narratives evolved, we catalogued them by themes, sub-narratives, and relationships to pre-invasion escalatory events. This allowed us to produce a timeline of false and misleading Kremlin narratives encompassing the year leading to the invasion, showing how Russia weaponized these narratives as its actions on the ground escalated toward war.
- Topic:
- News Analysis, Conflict, Narrative, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
227. The Future of Xi’s China. Scenarios and Implications for Europe
- Author:
- Alessia Amighini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- At the upcoming 20th Party Congress, which opens Sunday in China, Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed as the country's Secretary General for an unprecedented third term. At a time of international instability caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as rising competition between international superpowers, the Chinese leadership is called to increase the country's international standing, while ensuring economic growth at the domestic level. However, achieving these goals will not be without challenges. This Report analyses China’s hard road to international prestige and development. Which prospects for China's economic growth? Which obstacles to its rise at the global level? To which extent can the Party steer the country’s direction?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economy, Xi Jinping, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
228. Facing War: Rethinking Europe’s Security and Defence
- Author:
- Serena Giusti and Giovanni Grevi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s attack on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across Europe and the world. While the current war is a geopolitical turning point, it remains unclear whether it will trigger a quantum leap forward for European defence policies and for the role of the European Union as a security provider. This Report investigates whether we can expect a further convergence of European strategic cultures, and on collaboration among Europeans to generate the required military capabilities and integrate their forces. Most importantly, it finds that the timely implementation of the EU’s Strategic Compass will be a decisive test to establish whether Europeans are rising to the challenge of taking more responsibility for their security and defence.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
229. The geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Paul Dibb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The eminent Harvard University professor of Ukrainian history, Serhii Plokhy, observed that Russia’s occupation of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014 raised fundamental questions about Ukraine’s continuing existence as a unified state, its independence as a nation, and the democratic foundations of its political institutions.1 This created a new and dangerous situation not only in Ukraine but also in Europe as a whole. For the first time since the end of World War II, a major European power made war on a weaker neighbour and annexed part of the territory of a sovereign state. This unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine threatened the foundations of international order—a threat to which, he said, the EU and most of the world weren’t prepared to respond. Two years later, Plokhy published a book called Lost kingdom: a history of Russian nationalism from Ivan the Great to Vladimir Putin 2 in which he observed—correctly, in my view—that the question of where Russia begins and ends, and who constitutes the Russian people, has preoccupied Russian thinkers for centuries. He might have added that Russia has no obvious or clear-cut geographical borders. Plokhy also stated that the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict is only the latest turn of Russian policy resulting from the Russian elite’s thinking about itself and its East Slavic neighbours as part of their joint historical and cultural space, and ultimately as the same nation. He asserts that the current conflict reprises many of the themes that have been central to political and cultural relations in the region for the previous five centuries. Those include Russia’s great-power status and influence beyond its borders; the continued relevance of religion, especially Orthodox Christianity, as defined in Russian identity and the conduct of Russian policy abroad; and, last but not least, the importance of language and culture as tools of Russian state policy in the region. Moreover, the conflict reminds the world that the formation of the modern Russian nation is still far from complete. Plokhy concludes that this threat is no less serious than the one posed in the 19th and early 20th centuries by the German question—the idea of uniting all the German lands to forge a mighty German Empire.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
230. Deciding the future: the Australian Army and the infantry fighting vehicle
- Author:
- Albert Palazzo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The aim of this report is to inform government decision-makers and the public on the ability of Project LAND 400 Phase 3—the infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) acquisition—to meet the needs of Australia. I examine a number of factors that provide context for the government’s upcoming decision, whenever that may take place. Those include how IFVs fit into the Australian strategic environment, the ease with which the ADF can deploy them, their vulnerability to threats, and the ongoing utility of armour in the light of lessons unfolding from the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian War. To set the information into a useful context, this report explains the nature of contemporary land warfare and speculates how the Australian Army is likely to fight in a future conflict. To further assist those making the IFV decision, this report offers a number of scenarios that outline potential operations that the government may direct the ADF to undertake. It also identifies current gaps in ADF capability that will need remediation if the IFV is to achieve its potential, as well as the other opportunities that might not be taken up because of the focus on this investment. The report’s analysis results in some key questions for decision-makers to consider as they decide on the infantry fighting vehicle acquisition: Does the government believe that its IFV investment will deliver an appropriate balance of protection, lethality and mobility (both tactical and operational)? Does the government agree with the requirement for an infantry vehicle with STANAG 4569 Level 6 force protection and equipped with an active protection system? Is the government confident that the number of the IFVs obtained will generate a deployable and sustainable force that represents a sufficient return on the investment? Does the government accept that the IFV options under consideration will enable the ADF to offset existing gaps in capability and allow it to conduct operations in a contested maritime environment, including sea and airlift, long-range fires and logistics? Is the government confident that the Army’s combined arms system is deployable in contested environments, particularly in a maritime scenario? Does the government believe that the IFV will provide utility in the range of contingencies that the government envisages the ADF will need to meet? Does the government agree that the IFV will contribute to the requirement that the ADF be able to shape, deter and respond to threats as mandated in the 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU)?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, United Nations, Economy, Defense Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Australia, and United States of America
231. ‘Impactful projection’: long-range strike options for Australia
- Author:
- Marcus Hellyer and Andrew Nicholls
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Australian Government has stated that the ADF requires greater long-range strike capability. This was first stated by the previous government in its 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU), which emphasised the need for ‘self-reliant deterrent effects’. The present government has endorsed that assessment: Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles has stated that ‘the ADF must augment its self-reliance to deploy and deliver combat power through impactful materiel and enhanced strike capability—including over longer distances.’ He’s coined the term ‘impactful projection’ to describe the intended effect of this capability, which is to place ‘a very large question mark in the adversary’s mind.’ The term may be new, but the concept is not. To us, it’s a restating of the concept of deterrence by denial; that is, having sufficiently robust capabilities to convince an adversary that the cost of acting militarily against us isn’t worth any gains that might be made. But the need for the ADF to have those kinds of capabilities has become much more urgent. As the 2020 DSU noted, we no longer have 10 years of warning time of conventional conflict involving Australia. Moreover, this is not just the prospect of conflict far from Australia’s shores. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) force-projection capabilities have grown dramatically in the past two decades and include long-range conventional ballistic missiles, bombers and advanced surface combatants that have already transited through Australian waters.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Australia, and Australia/Pacific
232. Fair Energy Transition for All: Final Recommendations National Report of the Netherlands
- Author:
- Louise Van Schaik, René Cuperus, and Paul Hofhuis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the past year, the Clingendael Institute and Bureau Berenschot have participated in the Fair Energy Transition for All (FETA) project, which was also carried out in eight other European countries. The idea was to enter into a dialogue with both those who are potentially hard hit by the energy transition as well as experts, with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the emotions, fears, views and needs of vulnerable people with regard to energy transition and to develop policy recommendations for a fairer transition. Bureau Berenschot organised 14 focus groups with a total of 128 participants who had concerns about the current high energy prices and the possible effects of the energy transition/climate challenge on their daily lives. Based on the outcomes, Clingendael Institute organised two sessions with experts from government, academia and civil society to develop policy recommendations. Those policy recommendations were then discussed with the target group and validated in a Fair Energy Forum, organised by Berenschot, with input from Clingendael. The high energy prices and the consequences of the war in Ukraine gave the FETA project enormous urgency. In just a few months, energy transition has become an alarming issue with concerns about energy poverty and the ditsribution of energy topping political agenda's. What follows is a brief overview of policies already in place, followed by the key findings for the Netherlands and corresponding recommendations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
233. Walking the tightrope towards the EU: Moldova’s vulnerabilities amid war in Ukraine
- Author:
- Bob Deen and Wouter Zweers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- When the Council of the European Union decided on 23 June 2022 to grant Moldova the status of EU candidate country, it boosted the morale of a beleaguered government in Chișinău trying to circumnavigate a daunting series of crises. Since Maia Sandu ousted Socialist President Igor Dodon in the presidential election in 2020 and her reform-oriented Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) obtained a parliamentary majority in 2021, Moldova has barely had a chance to catch its breath. In the year that followed, the country experienced an energy crisis that almost deprived it of gas in the winter of 2021-2022, a budding economic crisis with rampant inflation, and a security and refugee crisis as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The war in its immediate neighbourhood, with Russian troops advancing in the spring along Ukraine’s southern coast to barely over 100 kilometres of Moldova’s borders, has further complicated the already difficult geopolitical balancing act of successive Moldovan governments. It has also aggravated existing security risks. For years, Moldova has balanced its aspirations to join the EU with its constitutional neutrality and its many dependencies on the Russian Federation. While President Putin was quick to congratulate Maia Sandu on her election and has so far refrained from open hostility towards her government, there are still many vulnerabilities that Moscow already leverages and could further exploit if it chose to destabilise Moldova. Not only is Moldova’s economy highly fragile and dependent on Russian energy, there are also political forces and regions that see their interests threatened by the reforms of the PAS government in Chișinău – and over which Moscow has different degrees of influence. Two of such regions are the separatist region of Transnistria in the east and the autonomous region of Gagauzia in the south of the country. A better understanding of these key vulnerabilities could help the EU and the Netherlands to assist Moldova in reducing them and to increase the stability and resilience of the EU’s newest candidate country. The central question of this research report therefore is to what extent Russia’s influence over Moldovan domestic politics as well as the regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia poses risks to the internal and external stability of Moldova.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Moldova
234. France and visa liberalisation for Kosovo: Ready to move forward?
- Author:
- Wouter Zweers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Kosovo’s EU visa liberalisation process, for many years now, has been an ordeal for Kosovo citizens and a thorn in the image of the EU in the Western Balkans. Reaching a conclusion to this process would allow both the EU and Kosovo to move forwards in a regional and European context fraught with geopolitical instability. The position of France in this matter remains cardinal. Together with various other member states, it has since 2018 prevented the process from returning to the Council’s voting agenda. However, a recent shift in the French position could now set a positive course and have implications beyond Kosovo. This report builds on the analysis of official documents and a series of interviews with policymakers and politicians from France and Kosovo. It examines the French position on Kosovo’s visa liberalisation process since 2018, as well as its motives and driving forces. It discusses how Kosovo has approached the issue and how the last remaining obstacles could be removed. While highlighting the strategic character of the issue in the broader context, the report finally explores the implications that the completion of Kosovo’s visa liberalisation process could have for the EU, the region, as well as France and Kosovo.
- Topic:
- European Union, Borders, Visa, and Liberalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Kosovo
235. Navigating an uncertain future: An exploration of China’s influence on the Netherlands’ future maritime logistics hub function
- Author:
- Frans-Paul van der Putten and Xiaoxue Martin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The maritime logistics hub function is of strategic importance to the Netherlands as a trading country. The Netherlands positions itself as the ‘Gateway to Europe’ thanks to its advanced logistics network and plays an important role in the global economy. This position nevertheless faces an uncertain future: there is no guarantee that the Netherlands will remain a leader in the years ahead. Geopolitics, and particularly the influence of China, will have a major impact on the Dutch maritime logistics hub function. On behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this report examines China’s influence on the Netherlands’ maritime logistics hub function. The main question posed in the study is: How is China’s influence on the central position of the Netherlands’ maritime logistics hub function likely to evolve in the decades ahead and what possible actions could the Dutch government take in response to it? The purpose of this study is to assess scenarios as a basis for possible actions by the Dutch government and the Dutch maritime logistics sector, particularly with regard to the Netherlands’ central position and strategic autonomy as a maritime logistics hub.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Logistics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Netherlands
236. The instrumentalization of migration: A geopolitical perspective and toolbox
- Author:
- Monika Sie Dhian Ho and Myrthe Wijnkoop
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- As armies and weapons cross borders, geopolitics re-enters the western mindset. With his full-scale invasion of Ukraine President Putin attempts to redraw the borders in Europe, and carve out a Russian sphere of influence. Whereas his armies’ achievements on the battlefield fall short of Putin’s initial expectations, they did succeed in making his fears relevant. They more tightly united the West, increased support for further enlargement of NATO, convinced Europeans that massive defence investments make sense and energy dependency is a strategic mistake. This is a geopolitical turn that was deemed impossible only one year ago. After the COVID-19 shock, the Russia-shock has made western countries realize in full that economic globalization and interdependence create vulnerabilities (e.g. dependence from medical masks imported from China, and gas imported from Russia). Adversary states can use these economic vulnerabilities as geopolitical weapons. The growing awareness and scrutiny of our vulnerabilities extends to the field of migration as well. As Ukraine is fighting back, millions flee to Europe. UNHCR has counted almost 4.8 million refugees from Ukraine that have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in EuropeSee https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. Last updated: 29 November 2022. as a direct consequence of Putin’s geopolitical aspirations. The indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Ukraine reminds one of the Russian strategy in the war in Syria. NATO’s top commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, warned back then that Putin and Assad were trying to create a massive displacement of people. He suggested that refugees are the war, and the target of this destabilisation strategy was Europe. That interpretation of the indiscriminate bombing is deemed farfetched by some, but recent examples of the instrumentalization of migration abound. Libya used it against EU Member States, Morocco against Spain, Turkey against Greece, and Belarus against EU Member States. In this context there is an increased interest in understanding the phenomenon of the instrumentalization of migration. The aim of this paper is to use a geopolitical perspective to better understand the phenomenon of instrumentalization of migration. Such a perspective is helpful to analyse the points of vulnerability of target countries, and to initiate a discussion about possible strategic responses to prevent, deter and combat its use. These insights could contribute to more resilience of potential target countries and better protection of potential victims.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, Borders, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
237. US-Chinese Competition and Transatlantic Relations: Implications for Germany and Europe
- Author:
- Markus Jaeger
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany is at risk of sustaining collateral damage in the face of intensifying US-Chinese competition and conflict. China’s ascendance and America’s desire to preserve the status quo lock Beijing and Washington into a classic security dilemma. The United States sees China as a potential regional hegemon in Asia and as an emerging global systemic challenger. China sees the United States as impeding its rise. Security competition is already well underway. So are geo-economic and geo-technological competition and conflict. For Germany, a position of relative neutrality or equidistance is not an option, it should consider pursuing a multi-track approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, and United States of America
238. Germany’s Global Technology Diplomacy Strengthening Technology Alliances, Partnerships, and Norms-Setting Institutions
- Author:
- David Hagebölling and Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The fusion of technological, geopolitical, and ideological ambitions is straining internet governance discourses, cyber norms diplomacy, technical standard-setting, and the global connectivity infrastructure. The German government has made support for global, open, and secure digital connectivity a centerpiece of its foreign policy. However, it has yet to make the shaping of a corresponding international technology agenda a strategic policy priority. To shape a global technology order that reflects Germany’s interests as a high-tech industrial economy and democratic society, the government should focus on realizing synergies with EU international digital policy, strengthening coordination with like-minded partners, and engaging with the Global South on an inclusive and democratic global digital agenda.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Norms, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
239. Technology and Industrial Policy in an Age of Systemic Competition: Safeguarding Germany’s Technology Stack and Innovation Industrial Strength
- Author:
- David Hagebölling and Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As one of the world’s most globalized economies, Germany is confronting a challenging international environment characterized by ag-gressive subsidies, a global race for control of key technologies such as advanced chips, and vulnerable supply chains for critical compo-nents. Increased energy costs – induced by Russia’s war on Ukraine – are also straining Germany’s industrial model. Germany’s industrial economy is simultaneously undergoing a fundamental transformation from precision-based engineering to sys-tems-based manufactured products. With this shift, a competitive digital technology stack is becoming a key repository for future industri-al competitiveness. Yet, the country struggles to capture value in fast-growing markets like that for cloud and edge infrastructure. It also faces risks from its exposure to untrustworthy technology vendors and potential geopolitical disruptions to fragile hardware supply chains. The German government is consequently drawing the contours of a new technology-industrial policy. This effort, however, suffers from uneven implementation and the complexities of eff ectively coordinating subnational (across the Länder) and supranational (across the EU) industrial policy. To effectively preserve its economic competitiveness, the German government should conduct a systematic assessment of the country’s strengths and vulnerabilities in critical technology, increase the cohesiveness between federal and state government initiatives, and work internationally – within the EU and with like-minded partners beyond – to leverage comparative advantages.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
240. Germany’s Economic Security and Technology: Optimizing Export Control, Investment Screening and Market Access Instruments
- Author:
- Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Technological development and increasingly fraught US-China competition have geopolitical consequences for technology access. The erosion of post-Cold War multilateral dual-use technology export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, and investment and other control frameworks have led to na-tional, EU, and ad hoc measures, such as the restrictions on Russian semiconductor access following the invasion of Ukraine. The German government must integrate technology access and control instruments – export controls, FDI screening, critical infrastructure access, research protection, and outbound investment– in its Digital Strategy and National Security Strategy. The former currently neglects critical technology access and control; the latter must address it comprehensively. German – and EU – dual-use export and FDI screening reforms have been updated and are now in place. Capacity building and alignment with EU and NATO partners now deserves greater attention. Measures could include more robust, institutionalized information-sharing and consultations on dual-use technology export, import, investment, and research controls in a Multilateral Technology Control Committee born out of the G7 or TTC. The commit-tee should also establish the capacity to deny end-user access to German technology through its own Foreign-Direct Product Rules and Entity List.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Investment, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
241. A German Digital Grand Strategy: Integrating Digital Technology, Economic Competitiveness, and National Security in Times of Geopolitical Change
- Author:
- Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- This report systematically outlines the state of play in digital policy and Berlin’s current policy approach. It provides 48 recommendations for strengthening Germany’s efforts to build a confident, high-performing European digital economy embedded in an open, democratic, and rules-based digital order.
- Topic:
- Economics, National Security, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
242. Germany’s Role in Europe’s Digital Regulatory Power: Shaping the Global Technology Rule Book in the Service of Europe
- Author:
- David Hagebölling and Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Four elements help to map the strengths and, at times, the limits of German power in digital rule-making. First, Germany anticipates EU digital regulation and attempts to establish facts on the ground. Second, Germany has outsized influence in the formal stages of EU digital regulatory policymaking. Third, the EU, in turn, provides Germany with a launch pad for influencing worldwide regulatory norms. Fourth, a belated reawakening of the capacity of the German private sector and affiliated technical standard bodies to influence global technical standards is occurring. Germany, as an EU member state, is engaging in three significant areas of data governance and cybersecurity: digital identities and open data, lawful access to electronic messaging systems, and rules for sovereign cloud usage. Germany’s largely successful role as a key incubator for the EU’s regulatory approach to digital technology and, therefore, as a proponent of the “Brussels Effect” of influencing global markets is not widely appreciated or understood at home. The lag among regulations, tech-nology, and international context is evident in areas such as data protection, content moderation, and market power of online platforms. Even meaningful regulatory debates on quantum, the metaverse (AR/VR), and 6G have yet to arise in Germany. Germany must change its approach to digital regulation to more accurately reflect the dynamic, general-purpose nature of emerging digital technologies against an increasingly fraught international landscape in which technological rules are a dimension of geopolitical power. This includes more fully addressing political trade-offs associated with digital regulation choices, expanding reviews and sunset clauses in digi-tal regulation to encourage flexibility, and making greater use of multi-stakeholder regulatory approaches that incorporate civil society, companies, and other non-state actors. Germany must also increase the engagement of its foreign policy and national security communi-ties in EU technology diplomacy and in global regulation enforcement.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
243. The Geopolitics of Digital Technology Innovation: Assessing Strengths and Challenges of Germany’s Innovation Ecosystem
- Author:
- Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-era public and private investment influx into Germany’s digital technology R&D is reversing amid inflation, fiscal consolidation, and geopolitical pressures coming from the Zeitenwende. Germany’s future in an EU that is among the top-tier technology powers requires a profound and rapid transition of the country’s R&D strengths into data-intensive, systems-centric areas of IoT and deep technology that are linked to the domestic manufacturing base. New policy approaches in three areas – money, markets, and minds – are needed. New technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced material science, biotech, and quantum computing tend to have broad general-purpose applications. But uncoordinated funding vehicles, universities’ civil clauses, and restrictive visa and onboarding guidelines for skilled foreign workers slow innovation in these sectors and hamper German techno-geopolitical competitiveness. In the mid-term, Germany could look at a scheme to bundle the Future Fund together with new institutional investment in a sort of embryonic German Sovereign Wealth Fund, with a proportion of funding specifically geared toward strategically important VC endeavors.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
244. Different Choices, Divergent Paths: Poland and Ukraine
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason, Eduard Hochreiter, and Tadeusz Kowalski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- We compare the economic growth trajectories of Poland and Ukraine since 1990 to try to understand the extent to which the observed growth differentials can be traced to increased efficiency in the use of capital and other factors (intensive growth), rather than to simple accumulation of capital (extensive growth). We stress the role of qualitative factors such as education, governance and institutions. We ask whether the EU perspective and NATO membership played a role. We discuss the closely related histories of the two countries and note the stark differences between them, including their different approaches to the EU vs Russia, full vs incomplete transition to a market economy, and democracy vs anocracy, as well as different initial conditions. We compare key determinants of growth and growth trajectories, using economic as well as social indicators, and trying to disentangle efficiency and accumulation and combine path dependence and the role and scope of creative destruction. While Poland had the shortest and mildest transformation recession among CEE countries, Ukraine has been stagnant, or in decline, since 1990. The statistics we report and the stories we tell suggest that both countries have a complex relationship with democracy and that the nearly threefold difference in per capita GDP at PPP in 2021 in Poland’s favour, with the ratio of investment to GDP similar in both countries, can most plausibly be traced to: (a) Poland’s more extensive and diversified exports, and fewer restrictions on trade, in addition to more comprehensive and quicker restructuring of the national economy inspired by the EU perspective; (b) Poland’s more extensive and better-quality education; (c) Poland’s greater democracy and longer experience of democracy, lower levels of corruption, better governance, and freer press; (d) Poland’s smaller agricultural sector and greater emphasis on manufacturing; and (e) Poland’s lower inflation and higher level of financial development. Furthermore, Poland built market-friendly institutions to EU specifications and joined NATO. Against all this, Ukraine had more economic equality and lower unemployment as well as, from the early 1990s, a lower initial level of income per person, but was hampered by political divisions, path-dependent corruption and poor governance. During the global Covid-19 pandemic, Ukraine apparently suffered fewer deaths than Poland, despite fewer vaccinations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Education, Governance, Reform, European Union, Economic Growth, Inflation, Exports, Transition, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Poland
245. Economic and Social Impacts of FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe
- Author:
- Doris Hanzl-Weiss and Branimir Jovanovic
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the economic and social impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 17 economies in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE). More precisely, we investigate how different FDI inflows have affected various economic and social indicators, such as GDP growth, labour market outcomes, and poverty and inequality, for the period since the fall of communism until 2020. We pay particular attention to FDI that originates from the EU, as well as FDI from Germany and Austria, in order to evaluate whether their effects are different from the effects of FDI from other places of origin. We also examine whether there are differences in the impacts of different types of FDI – equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra-company debt, as well as of FDI that goes to different sectors of the economy – the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. We find that FDI inflows have had, in general, a positive effect on economic growth in CESEE, and that this effect has been particularly strong for German and Austrian FDI. For total FDI, higher inflows of 1 percentage point (pp) of GDP are associated with 0.19 pp higher GDP growth. For FDI from Germany and Austria, this effect is five times higher – FDI inflows of 1 pp of GDP have led to 0.9 pp higher GDP growth. The positive GDP effects have come from the higher consumption and exports that the FDI has induced. FDI inflows have also reduced unemployment and increased wages, but have had no effects on labour productivity. Total FDI has had only limited effects on inequality and poverty, but FDI from Germany and Austria has been found to reduce both inequality and poverty, likely because they have benefitted mainly lower-income persons. There are differences in the effects of the different types of FDI, with reinvested earnings and equity capital having in general more beneficial effects than intra-company loans. Also, FDI in different sectors of the economy has had different effects, with inflows to the secondary and tertiary sectors having greater effects than inflows to the primary sector. The policy implications of these results are that CESEE economies should not give up on their efforts to attract more FDI, but also that their endeavours should be more targeted, focusing on investments that have greater economic and social impacts. Moreover, foreign investment should not be criticised for the perhaps unsatisfactory economic and social performances of the economies from this region. Instead, the reasons for this should be sought in domestic factors and in the modest growth of the European Union during the past two decades.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, Foreign Direct Investment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Germany, and Austria
246. How do Economies in EU-CEE Cope with Labour Shortages?
- Author:
- Vasily Astrov, Richard Grieveson, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Hermine Vidovic, and Zuzana Zavarská
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE) have been experiencing increasing labour shortages, which only briefly subsided in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing demographic decline suggests that labour shortages will only get stronger over time. As a result, the bargaining power of labour has increased, wages have been generally rising ahead of labour productivity, and industrial action (strikes) – the level of which has remained low in recent decades – has emerged in some instances. In the face of labour and skill shortages, people have been investing in education. The share of employees with tertiary education has increased, and vocational training has gained in importance, although active labour market policies have been used only selectively. Employers have increasingly been investing in fixed assets, especially in manufacturing, and the degree of robotisation has risen strongly. Despite domestic concerns that automation would generate massive job losses, our findings suggest that capital deepening has taken place faster where labour was in higher demand. Thus, labour was not substituted with capital, but rather the complementary effect prevailed. Employment actually increased in EU-CEE over the past two decades – despite the shrinking working-age population. Employers could hire not only the formerly unemployed, but also the formerly inactive, and used the relaxed immigration policies to attract foreign workers, especially from Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Czechia, Hungary, Slovenia and Slovakia and most recently Poland have become net receivers of migrants, while in Bulgaria immigration largely compensates for the natives who go abroad. However, immigration from non-European countries as a general solution to the problem of labour shortages in the region is highly problematic in the current domestic political context. Overall, both our findings for the EU-CEE region over recent years and the experience of Western Europe during the ‘golden age’ (1950-1973) suggest that labour shortages are not in themselves an obstacle to rapid structural change and income growth. However, for such an economic model to be sustainable, more active government policies will be needed, such as greater public investment in education and training, higher minimum wages in order to encourage automation, and more extensive welfare networks in order to deal with the possible negative short-run side-effects of automation.
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, European Union, Populism, Vocational Training, Investment, Labor Market, Trade Unions, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
247. Will Russia Survive Until 2084?
- Author:
- Philip Wasielewski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- If the Russian army collapses in defeat in Ukraine, this could be the catalyst for political violence seeking regime or leadership change to extract revenge for humiliation on the battlefield and a ruined economy at home. However, as the number of armed groups in Russia grows (regular military, security services, private military companies, ethnic-nationalist military units, etc.), political violence initially focused on the Kremlin could unleash a broader struggle as each group vies for power against the other. If Russia’s central government, with a defeated army and weakened security services, is convulsed in an armed power struggle, this situation could motivate some ethnic republics within Russia to take advantage of this opportunity and attempt to secede, which would plunge the state into further chaos. Even if a defeat in Ukraine does not lead to disintegration within Russia itself, the former Soviet republics in what Russia considers its “near abroad” will continue to spin away from Moscow’s sphere of influence and reorient themselves towards other historic powers in their regions. This will be especially true in Central Asia and the Caucasus where Chinese and Turkish power has risen over the past several decades while Russia’s has declined. In Russia’s far east, the disparity between China’s and Russia’s relative strengths—military, economic, and demographic—is turning the balance of power in Beijing’s favor.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
248. Mental Health Conditions and Substance Use: Comparing U.S. Needs and Treatment Capacity with Those in Other High-Income Countries
- Author:
- Melinda K. Abrams, Reginald D. Williams II, Katharine Fields, and Roosa Tikkanen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Commonwealth Fund
- Abstract:
- About one-quarter of U.S. adults report having a mental health diagnosis such as anxiety or depression or experiencing emotional distress. This is one of the highest rates among 11 high-income countries. While U.S. adults are among the most willing to seek professional help for emotional distress, they are among the most likely to report access or affordability issues. Emotional distress is associated with social and economic needs in all countries. Nearly half of U.S. adults who experience emotional distress report such worries, a higher share than seen in other countries. The United States has some of the worst mental health–related outcomes, including the highest suicide rate and second-highest drug-related death rate. The U.S. has a relatively low supply of mental health workers, particularly psychologists and psychiatrists. Just one-third of U.S. primary care practices have mental health professionals on their team, compared to more than 90 percent in the Netherlands and Sweden.
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, Mental Health, Drugs, and Substance Abuse
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Global Focus
249. Promoting China–European Union Cooperation on Green and Sustainable Finance
- Author:
- Ian Anthony, Jingdong Yuan, and Sun Xia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Energy transition is an essential element of the global effort to meet the objectives set out in the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change. China and the European Union (EU) have agreed to work together to help deliver the financing needed to achieve energy transition, but more is needed. To promote China–EU co-operation, this SIPRI Policy Brief recommends: (a) exploring a dedicated China–EU green finance initiative; (b) presenting a joint China–EU proposal on clear definitions and standards of sustainable green financing to the International Partnership on Sustainable Finance; (c) generating a joint curriculum to train staff in multilateral development banks, private investment banks, insurance companies and green banks; (d) pursuing joint finance for projects that find private capital difficult to attract; and (e) deploying independent evaluation teams to scrutinize how rating systems are applied in energy transition projects.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Finance, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Peace
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
250. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
251. Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia, the two countries remain mired in mutual non-recognition, with deleterious effects on both. The parties need to move past technicalities to tackle the main issues at stake: Pristina’s independence and Belgrade’s influence over Kosovo’s Serbian minority.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Minorities, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
252. A Course Correction for the Sahel Stabilisation Strategy
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since 2013, when it sent troops to Mali, France has led international efforts to root out Islamist militancy from the Sahel. Yet the jihadist threat has grown. Paris and its partners should reorient their military-centred approach toward helping improve governance in the region.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
253. Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In mid-2020, Turkey and Greece put their Mediterranean fleets on high alert, dramatically raising tensions in their long-running dispute over air, water, rock and now seabed gas deposits as well. Talks have been frustrating but remain the best way to contain the risk of conflict.
- Topic:
- Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Water, Maritime, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean
254. Post-war Prospects for Nagorno-Karabakh
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh left many issues unresolved and the front lines volatile. The parties should establish a formal communication channel to address urgent post-war problems, Russian peacekeepers need a clearer mandate and aid agencies must be granted access to the conflict zone.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Caucasus
255. Cyber Threats During The COVID-19 Outbreak and Activities of National CERTS in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Nele Achten
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This report outlines cyber incidents and response of national Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in Western Balkan economies in Spring 2020, during the first months of COVID-19. Through surveys and feedback gained from national Western Balkan CERT teams, this report analyses specific challenges faced and provides insights on how transnational and private sector cooperation could further improve cyber incident response in the region. In a COVID-19 world, where many services have moved online at accelerated speed, there are exponentially more cyber threats to not only individuals and businesses, but also healthcare facilities, educational institutions, critical infrastructure and state organs. This report outlines how in the Western Balkan region, the largest vector of cyber threats during the early months of COVID-19 came from traditional phishing campaigns targeting and exploiting public health and safety concerns during the pandemic. Following survey conducted with Western Balkan national CERTs, the report categorizes activities and joint efforts of the CERTs during the outbreak of COVID-19 into two main categories: 1. Public awareness raising efforts and public security warnings; 2. Extended trainings and educational activities. The report concludes by emphasizing the need and interest for more regional and international cybersecurity co-operation in the Western Balkan region, which was confirmed by several national CERTs during a regional meeting held in preparation for the drafting of this report.
- Topic:
- Security, Cybersecurity, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
256. Armenia Cybersecurity Governance Assessment
- Author:
- Natalia Spinu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This report is a two-factor analysis of cybersecurity, including the legislative framework and key national actors in cybersecurity. The first part of the report presents the main cybersecurity threats in the Republic of Armenia, and the needs arising from national security objectives. It describes the normative and legislative framework of Armenia, which covers the main aspects of information security ensuring a level of national security of the population and mentions the main objectives of the national cybersecurity strategy. This report also identifies the issues and challenges in the Armenian cybersecurity strategy and describes the main actors within the state responsible for the national action plan for cybersecurity. The last part reflects conclusions extracted following the study and elaboration of this report.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Governance, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Armenia
257. Azerbaijan Cybersecurity Governance Assessment
- Author:
- Natalia Spinu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This report is a two-factor analysis of cybersecurity, including the legislative framework and key national actors in cybersecurity. The first part of the report presents the main cybersecurity threats in Azerbaijan and the needs arising from national security objectives. It describes the normative and legislative framework of Azerbaijan which covers the main aspects of information security in cybersecurity and ensures a level of national security of the population, while mentioning the main objectives of the national cybersecurity strategy. The last part reflects the conclusions that we have extracted following the study and elaboration of this report.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Governance, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Azerbaijan
258. Georgia Cybersecurity Governance Assessment
- Author:
- Natalia Spinu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This report is a two-factor analysis of cybersecurity: the legislative framework and key national actors in cybersecurity. The first part of the report presents the main cybersecurity threats in Georgia and the needs arising from national security objectives. It describes the normative and legislative framework of Georgia covering the main aspects of information security and ensuring a level of national security of the population, while mentioning the main objectives of the national cybersecurity strategy. The second part of the report analyses the national cybersecurity strategy, the main actors within the state responsible for the national action plan for the national cybersecurity strategy in Georgia. The final part reflects upon the conclusions that have been extracted following the study and elaboration of this report.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Governance, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Georgia
259. Ukraine Cybersecurity Governance Assessment
- Author:
- Natalia Spinu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This report is a two-factor analysis of cybersecurity: the legislative framework, and key national actors in cybersecurity. It describes the main cybersecurity threats in Ukraine and the needs arising from its national security objectives. The present assessment paper describes the normative and legislative framework of the Ukraine, which covers the main aspects of information security and ensures a level of national security of the population, while mentioning the main objectives of the national cybersecurity strategy as well as the main actors and stakeholders in the national cybersecurity.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Governance, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
260. UK Economic Diplomacy in the 21st Century: The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission Final Report
- Author:
- LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- The LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission was convened in 2019 to establish a strategic direction for a new age of foreign economic policy, to understand the domestic ramifications of changes to the UK’s trade agenda, and to present recommendations that may best advance the UK’s priorities at home and abroad. The aim of the Report is to position the UK optimally in a changed 21st century global economy while maintaining the UK’s support for an open, multilateral trade and rules-based international system. The Report proposes a refined economic diplomacy framework that seeks to balance commercial openness with strategic domestic and foreign policy aims, broadly defined.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
261. Hedging by Default: The Limits of EU “Strategic Autonomy” in a Binary World Order
- Author:
- Richard Higgott and Simon Reich
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- For some time, international relations has trended in the direction of an American and Chinese dominated binary world order. While the Trump administration has been an accelerator not a cause of this trend between 2016 and 2020, not coincidentally the post 2016 era has also seen key EU figures move to develop a strategy of greater "strategic autonomy". This interest in strategic autonomy was, in no small part, a reflection of growing European distrust in the reliability of both China and, increasingly, the USA. The paper shows, in contrast to the Cold War era during which the EU was unambiguously aligned, how the EU now appears to have embarked on a hedging strategy, albeit implemented more by default than design. In its desire to defend its core interests the EU appears to lean to one side or the other on an issue by issue basis in at least seven key policy domains identified in the paper. This approach is seen to be the outcome of its dual desire to articulate the values of its much touted “Geopolitical Commission" at the same time as it tries to continue its traditional institutional commitment to multilateralism. The paper concludes that the ambiguity present in this endeavour to straddle the realist-liberal fence only serves to expose the limitations of the strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
262. Sea Change? The Impact of the US Presidential Election on Central and South-Eastern European Security and Defence
- Author:
- Corina Rebegea, Wojciech Michnik, and Ivan Vejvoda
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This LSE IDEAS report assesses the likely impact of the new Biden administration on security and defence in the Black Sea, Balkan and Central European regions. The report finds grounds for optimism but also for managing expectations. President Biden's support for multilateral security approaches is likely to strengthen NATO and regional cooperation, particularly on Russia, but the region cannot expect to be the US' top priority. A return to values-based diplomacy under Biden, too, may put pressure on democratically-backsliding allies to whom his predecessor turned a blind eye.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
263. The Rise of Insurgent Europeanism
- Author:
- Luke Cooper, Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz, Mary Kaldor, Niccolò Milanese, and Iavor Rangelov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Civil society in Europe and its attitudes towards the European project have changed dramatically in the past decade of multiple crises. This study mapped, tracked and monitored developments in European civil society from 2018 to 2020, revealing the nature and implications of these changes.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Migration, Insurgency, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe
264. Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance
- Author:
- Luke Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- Authoritarianism has become a major buzzword of global politics today. But the public debate has often focused on headline-catching cases of democratic decline. In the European Union (EU), Hungary and Poland, have tended to dominate discussion and critique with the implication that a modern-day ‘containment’ strategy might suffice to withstand the authoritarian advance. This brings dangers for how we think about politics in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE), involving a problematic reading of the region as a source of threat to democracy, rather than a theatre for its renewal. This new LSE IDEAS report, Authoritarian protectionism in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe: diversity, commonality and resistance, seeks to provide a wider regional contextualisation through the examination of Hungary and Poland in tandem with four other case studies in the region: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. The paper argues that the recent histories of these states provide a vantage point for reflection on the broader tendencies driving democratic decay globally. As the populaces of these states have shown tremendous civic energy in their willingness to resist authoritarianism, often in very large numbers, these case studies also point to the need to re-frame how this topic is discussed in the European public sphere. They suggest we should highlight how events in the region may be a harbinger of new opportunities for democratic advance. The snapshot comparative analysis of these states is undertaken through the frame of what the author, Dr Luke Cooper, calls authoritarian protectionism. This emphasises the importance of a politics of ethnonational partisanship to the contemporary challenge to democracy. In the cases examined in the report, authoritarian protectionism draws particular attention to the coherence that exists amongst such actors– despite the fact the examples are drawn from the left, centre and right of the political spectrum.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Diversity, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Southern Europe
265. Three Dilemmas Facing the Indo-Pacific’s Regional Order
- Author:
- Arzan Tarapore
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For decades, an international order delivered security and prosperity to the Indo-Pacific. The order was based on U.S. military hegemony and alliances that preserved the strategic status quo and multilateral cooperation that enabled economic development and growth. That order is now under strain. The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the order’s founding principles, prompting some regional states to limit their interdependency in certain sensitive sectors under the guise of supply chain resilience. The pandemic was not the first challenge to test the order; serious threats began to emerge over a decade ago, with the global financial crisis of 2008, and were sharply exacerbated by China’s economic rise and strategic revisionism, which threatens U.S. military and economic primacy and the territorial status quo. The United States, India, and like-minded middle-power partners from the Indo-Pacific and Europe have struggled to respond effectively. The other contributions in this series on navigating U.S.-China competition in the Indo-Pacific show how these states have sought to recover from the pandemic while also answering structural threats of revisionism and economic headwinds from decoupling, protectionism and changing integration patterns. Cutting across those specific policy issues are three overarching dilemmas that each state will be forced to resolve when making policy. How policymakers navigate these dilemmas will define the policy settings of their regional strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Economic Growth, Multilateralism, Regional Integration, Economic Development, Strategic Competition, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, South Asia, India, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
266. European Middle Powers in the Indo-Pacific amid GreatPower Strategic Competition
- Author:
- Nilanthi Samaranayake
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- European middle powers are not typically part of U.S. discussions of the Indo-Pacific. However, in an era of growing strategic competition, they are collectively and individually expressing stronger equities in the stability of the region. In May 2021, for example, the United Kingdom’s aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth set sail for the first time on a tour that will take it to various locations, including to the Indo-Pacific region. The Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen, as well as a U.S. destroyer and aircraft, are also part of the carrier strike group. Thus, now is a good moment to step back and reflect on the role of European middle powers in the Indo-Pacific amid the backdrop of great-power, strategic competition. The Netherlands, Germany, and France have recently published strategy documents focused on the Indo-Pacific. The Netherlands’ document released in November 2020 discussed concerns about upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in the South China Sea and the need for the European Union to take a more vocal stance on stability in this region. Germany published a similar document in September 2020 in which it emphasized its deep economic interests in the Indo-Pacific “rules-based international order.” Earlier, France led thinking about evolving regional dynamics in 2018. Through the publication of France’s Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific and France and Security in the Indo-Pacific documents in 2019, France expressed its concerns about the impact of China’s activities in the East and South China Sea on regional stability. These issues have also been raised through NATO, which has been grappling with the belief that “China does not share our values” and the implications for alliance security and the international rules-based order.
- Topic:
- Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Indo-Pacific
267. Preventing Nuclear Proliferation and Reassuring America's Allies
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder, Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, and Kevin Rudd
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent decades, the threat of nuclear proliferation has emanated primarily from the Middle East and from south and northeast Asia. But the proliferation threat wasn’t always concentrated in these regions. Long before countries like North Korea and Iran topped the list of nuclear threats, leaders in Washington and elsewhere worried about a different group of countries—America’s allies in Europe and Asia. Indeed, in the early 1960s, intelligence officials projected that by the mid-1970s there likely would be 10 to 15 nuclear powers in the world within a decade, as countries like Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey would opt to join a growing nuclear club. The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 was designed to prevent this, and it did. But it succeeded in large part because of a concerted US effort since the 1960s to reassure its allies around the world that America’s nuclear umbrella would extend to their territory and ensure their security. Rather than developing their own national nuclear capabilities, key allies in Europe and Asia opted to rely on the US nuclear guarantee instead. Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, just four countries (India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea) have acquired nuclear weapons. More recently, however, questions about the credibility of the American nuclear guarantee have arisen again in Europe and Asia. Allies in both regions confront growing military threats from a resurgent Russia, a rising China, and a nuclear North Korea. At the same time, successive US administrations have sought to retreat from some longstanding commitments, leaving America’s allies around the world uncertain whether they can still rely on the United States for their defense and security—nuclear and otherwise. So far, the discussions about nuclear deterrence and reassurance have played out largely beyond public view. But the issue is becoming increasingly salient, given growing threats from Russia and China especially, and growing doubts about the United States. America and its allies cannot ignore this new reality. For if we are to prevent new nuclear proliferation among these allies, it is essential to acknowledge that what has long been unthinkable is becoming thinkable once more.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, East Asia, North America, and United States of America
268. Making the Rounds: Illicit Ammunition in Ukraine
- Author:
- Matt Schroeder and Olena Shumska
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Making the Rounds: Illicit Ammunition in Ukraine finds that thousands of hand grenades, rockets, mortar rounds, landmines, and tins of firearms cartridges have proliferated throughout Ukraine, including to areas located far from the conflict zone in the east. Presenting findings from a comprehensive review of imagery and information on illicit ammunition trafficked to, from, and within Ukraine, the report includes an analysis of markings on more than 1,600 seized hand grenades, shoulder-fired rockets, ammunition tins, and anti-personnel landmines. The report reveals the types and sources of illicit ammunition in the country, as well as the modes of transport and smuggling techniques used by Ukrainian arms traffickers and their co-conspirators abroad. The analysis shows that the overwhelming majority of the 1,600 items analyzed were Soviet-designed models produced in Eastern European and Soviet factories prior to the dissolution of the USSR. Curbing the threat to local and regional security posed by this ammunition requires a long-term, coordinated effort by Ukrainian authorities and the international community.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
269. Bringing Back the Golden Age: Hungarian Radical Right Narratives and Counternarratives in Light of Historical Revisionism
- Author:
- Balša Lubarda
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hedayah
- Abstract:
- This country report, written by Balša Lubarda, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
- Topic:
- Ideology, Radical Right, Political Extremism, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Hungary
270. From Street-based Activism to Terrorism and Political Violence: UK Radical Right Narratives and Counter-Narratives at a Time of Transition
- Author:
- William Allchorn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Hedayah
- Abstract:
- This country report, written by Dr. William Allchorn, is one of the outputs of the CARR-Hedayah Radical Right Counter Narratives Project, a year-long project under the STRIVE Global Program at Hedayah funded by the European Union and implemented by the Centre for Analysis of the Radical Right (CARR). The overall project creates one of the first comprehensive online toolkits for practitioners and civil society engaged in radical right extremist counter narrative campaigns. It uses online research to map narratives in nine countries and regions, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Hungary, New Zealand, Norway, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and the United States. It also proposes counter narratives for these countries and regions and advises on how to conduct such campaigns in an effective manner.
- Topic:
- Violence, Radical Right, Political Extremism, Narrative, and Countering Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
271. Strategic Autonomy and the Transformation of the EU: New Agendas for Security, Diplomacy, Trade and Technology
- Author:
- Niklas Helwig
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU is caught up in a debate over whether to increase its autonomy with regard to the wider world. International developments and crises of recent years have raised the question of whether Europeans should be more capable of managing the risks stemming from their exposure to global trade and possible over-reliance on allies for their security. This report analyses how the pursuit of strategic autonomy transforms EU policies in the field of security, diplomacy, trade, and technology. The report makes recommendations on how the EU can advance strategic autonomy, while striking a balance between protectionist tendencies and the need to stay open to international engagement and cooperation. Instead of focusing on the divisive question of strategic autonomy from others, member states should pay attention to more constructive approaches and concrete actions to strengthen strategic autonomy. In each of the policy fields, the right mix of protection of European assets, provision of the economic and political basis, and the projection of European interests and values abroad will be vital.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, European Union, Regionalism, Autonomy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe
272. The path to recognition: Kosovo’s and Serbia’s evolving dialogue
- Author:
- Engjellushe Morina
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The EU-sponsored dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is entering a critical phase: it is unclear whether the parties will agree on a new agenda or continue to discuss old issues. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti aims to set a new agenda for the dialogue and to place Kosovo on an equal footing with Serbia. The solution to the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia should be to create a societal consensus on both sides of the border. Kurti prefers not to prioritise the dialogue, but it is not in his interest to delay it – as this would only benefit Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Kosovo’s leadership should take greater responsibility for the Kosovo Serb community and provide services in areas such as healthcare and education, which are currently in the hands of the so-called ‘parallel structures’. The leadership should avoid linking this provision of services to any future Serbian concessions on Kosovo’s status. An internal dialogue would be the best way to address contentious, politicised issues such as the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo.
- Topic:
- Religion, Culture, European Union, Ethnicity, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
273. Ambiguous alliance: Neutrality, opt-outs, and European defence
- Author:
- Clara Sophie Cramer and Ulrike Franke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- EU member states that are neutral or militarily non-aligned, or that have an opt-out from common defence, are often overlooked in discussions about European defence. The existence of these special status states not only creates uncertainty about the EU’s ambitions to become a fully fledged defence union but also calls into question the functionality of the mutual defence clause, Article 42.7, in the long run. The special status states fall into three groups according to the challenges they pose to the EU: the “non-aligned in name only” (Finland and Sweden); the “odd one out” (Denmark); and the “strategic schnorrers” (Austria, Ireland, and Malta). The EU’s work on its Strategic Compass should include debates on the special status states’ future role in European defence, as well as discussions on the operationalisation of the union’s mutual defence clause.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Alliance, and Neutrality
- Political Geography:
- Europe
274. Conference on the Future of Europe: Czech Perspective
- Author:
- Vít Havelka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Czech attitudes towards the Conference have not been elaborated on the expert level either. The following paper therefore tries to fill this research gab and clarify how Czechs perceive the Conference on the Future of Europe and what influence it might potentially have on the Czech perception of the EU. Finally, the article will address both the political and societal level of the question, thus drawing a wider perspective of what other Member States might expect from the Czech Republic.
- Topic:
- Politics, Public Opinion, European Union, Conference, COVID-19, Society, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czech Republic
275. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its effects on trade with third countries
- Author:
- Tom Baker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Trade with third countries is the major component of the EU’s foreign policy, serving as a critical economic, diplomatic and geopolitical tool. As such, the EU is eager to green this area of its activity via a host of policies, one such being the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Serving essentially as a form of carbon tax on goods imported into the EU, the CBAM aims to instigate more climate friendly production of goods in third countries. In simple terms, the CBAM would, as an incentive for global action against climate change, tax goods imported from countries with less ambitious climate policies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Borders, Tax Systems, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
276. How will CBAM affect manufacturing industries in the Czech Republic?
- Author:
- Katharine Klačanský
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- The issues of carbon leakage and competitiveness have recently become major topics of concern for policy makers and stakeholders involved in decarbonisation, as international commitments of the European Union (EU) on climate change are moving higher on the agenda. The much-needed target of reaching climate neutrality by 2050 has led to increased interest, and urgency, in examining options to address the risk of carbon leakage as well as measures to prevent it from happening.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, European Union, Borders, Manufacturing, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czech Republic
277. Review of the Czech EU Policy in 2020/2021
- Author:
- Vít Havelka, Katerina Davidova, and Danielle Piatkiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- The institutional year 2020/2021 was strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which not only took over most of the agenda, but also influenced the functioning of the EU institutions as such. The European Council and COREPER became the most significant players, as the regular Council meetings were predominantly held online. This constellation had an impact on the EU policy ownership of the Czech ministers, who were simultaneously forced to deal with the deteriorating domestic situation and upcoming elections.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, European Union, Domestic Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Czech Republic
278. EU – Japan Economic Partnership Agreement: Strengthening economic ties as a way out of recession
- Author:
- Jana Záhořová
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Today, Japan remains an important international trading partner of the EU. Following China, Japan is the EU’s second-most important trading partner in Asia. According to experts from the European Commission, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia and the University of Pavia, the EU-Japan EPA is a success because it is a great example of a higher degree of economic integration that can put pressure on other countries to feel obliged to adhere to free trade rules rather than protectionism.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, and Asia
279. EU-Western Balkans Summit –The Morning After
- Author:
- Jana Juzová, Alexandra Ilková, and Ondřej Pešek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Our Jana Juzová, Alexandra Ilková, and Ondřej Pešek collaborated on the report of EU-Western Balkans Summit and its consequences. The conference took place in Carolinum on November 5, 2021. The speakers discussed relations between the European Union and Western Balkans and ways how to get the EU enlargement agenda back on track from the state of a deep crisis.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regional Integration, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
280. Is EU leading the way to becoming a global change in business and human rights?
- Author:
- Leonor Tavares
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- In the latest EU Monitor Leonor Tavares examines how human rights issues are reflected in the European Union's negotiations and what kind of development could be expected in this area. The pandemic has exposed even more the vulnerabilities of our economic model and underlined the precarious nature of global value chains, demanding us to create better solution. We reached the point, where there is no other option, besides changing the system, meaning that EU has a major responsibility to stop importing human rights and environment violations through the consumption of goods hailing from areas where European standards/values are not respected, and this proposal is a recognition of that reality.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, Human Rights, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
281. The EU’s military engagement in Central Mediterranean – Migrant crisis and arms embargo intertwined
- Author:
- Vojtěch Freitag
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- In the new EU Monitor Vojtěch Freitag writes about the ongoing EU’s military mission in the Central Mediterranean Sea called EUNAVFOR MED Irini. The article attempts to overview, critically reflect and present recommendations for the issues connected to it. Notwithstanding EU’s efforts, Sophia had not achieved the prevention ofillicit arms flows. In fact, it could not possibly be successful as the sea is not the only entry point into the vast country. Failure of the embargo has been recently confirmed also by the UN expert panel on Libya, which claimed “total ineffectiveness”. However, the termination of the operation was caused by concerns deemed of greater importance to the member-states than the arms embargo –the question of rescuing and disembarking migrants, an aspect fitting into general EU’s immigration policy debate.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Migration, Military Affairs, and Refugee Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
282. Dialogue with Russia: Russia Needs to Reset Relations with the West
- Author:
- Kalev Stoicescu, Liana Fix, Agnieszka Legucka, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Artūrs Bikovs, and Keir Giles
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Moscow’s resurgent foreign policy and the undemocratic rule of President Vladimir Putin ended the relatively friendly relations that had been possible between Russia and the West in the 1990s. In the seven years since Russia annexed Crimea and started a war of attrition against Ukraine, the security situation in the transatlantic region has continuously deteriorated. The Kremlin has demonstrated hostility towards the West, crises and security issues have continued to multiply instead of being resolved, and the risk of outright conflict has come close to Cold War peaks. There is an obvious and urgent need to lower tensions, but Moscow prefers to demonstrate its readiness to escalate. This report analyses Western-Russian relations and proposes a way forward for conducting dialogue with Russia. It offers an analysis of Russia’s relations with NATO and the EU, an overview of the bilateral relations of various Western countries with Russia, a glimpse of China’s role, and an assessment of the main interests and contentious issues in Western-Russian relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, International Affairs, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, France, Poland, Germany, Latvia, and United States of America
283. Reconceptualizing Lithuania’s Importance for U.S. Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Nikolas Gvosdev
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- During the immediate post-Cold War period, the importance of Lithuania, along with other Central-Eastern European countries, to U.S. foreign policy increased. Lithuania became one of the jumping-off points for further “democratic enlargement” in Europe, Eurasia, and the Greater Middle East. Today, U.S. policy is focused on retrenchment and consolidation—defined by a shift in attention and resources away from the Euro-Atlantic region and the Greater Middle East towards the Indo-Pacific region—as well as the growing priority of climate change and the environment as central organizing principles. U.S. foreign policy is also increasingly subordinated to domestic political considerations about the costs and benefits of overseas action for constituencies within the United States. In the 2020s, Lithuania’s importance will rest less on the Russia dimension and further Euro-Atlantic enlargement into the post-Soviet space, and more on its ability to play a greater role in European affairs, to assist in the rebalance to Asian affairs more generally, and to contribute to energy, supply chain, and environmental security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Geopolitics, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, Lithuania, and United States of America
284. Russia’s Nuclear Activity in 2020: A Show of Strength Despite COVID-19
- Author:
- Maxim Starchak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation’s powerful nuclear arsenal has stood as a cornerstone of its political and military influence. In 2020, despite the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions, Russia’s strategic nuclear forces maintained a high degree of activity. The number of nuclear exercises and air and sea deterrence patrols was stable and not much different from 2019. The Russian strategic nuclear arsenal remains an integral tool of the Kremlin’s pressure on rivals in Europe and North America.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Power, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and North America
285. A Reassessment of the European Union’s Response to Climate-related Security Risks
- Author:
- Anniek Barnhoorn and Elise Remling
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This SIPRI Insights paper examines how climate-related security risks (CRSRs) are framed and responded to within different bodies of the European Union (EU). The paper finds that CRSRs are framed differently across the EU and that the kinds of actions proposed vary. Although this is not necessarily a problem, a key challenge is that across the EU the prescriptions for addressing CRSRs largely focus on long-term prevention in the form of climate mitigation, on the one hand, and reactive crisis responses, on the other. As a result, the substantial climate change that is already locked in and its related security risks are currently not being addressed. Similarly, this focus overlooks the varied and often complex ways in which climate change can increase risks. The paper concludes that the EU needs to broaden its understanding of and response to CRSRs if it wants to take—and inspire—more effective action to reduce such risks.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, European Union, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arctic
286. Brexit and beyond
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Brexit is done. The formal negotiations are over — even though the Trade and Cooperation Agreement paves the way to many further negotiations between the UK and the EU. Our understanding of what Brexit does mean in practice is just beginning. Now the UK is finally able to embark on its new course, we believe that the need for social science to play a role in informing public and political debates is as great if not greater than ever. The contributions that follow underline the scale and scope of the agenda that confronts the United Kingdom. It is meant both as a guide to the issues that will loom large of the months and years to come and as a signal that we intend to deploy the best social science research in order to understand and address them.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economy, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
287. Digitalisation of Poland's post-COVID economy – how to make the best use of the EU Recovery Fund?
- Author:
- Jan Hagemejer and Karolina Zubel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- In this report, we show that the level of digitalisation of the Polish economy as a whole is behind European benchmarks and that it is insufficient. This has two dimensions – one is the overall low digital literacy of Polish society and the low demand for digital services, while the other is the insufficient digitalisation of business activities which stems from inefficient programmes and incentives in this respect. These dimensions overlap – human capital deficiencies reduce the benefits from digitalisation efforts on the part of enterprises while digitalisation itself is performed in an inefficient way. We analyse digitisation in several sectoral dimensions to understand the challenges facing specific segments of the Polish economy. We show that the deficiencies in digitalisation are uneven: small firms are lagging behind large firms, while manufacturing firms use existing digital solutions in inefficient ways, lacking integration and strategic vision. Given the existing empirical evidence, improvements in these areas can positively contribute to the costs of running a business and to the way a business is organised as well as improve the allocative efficiency. Improving the degree of the use of digital technology in manufacturing can contribute to maintaining the cost-competitiveness of the sector while digital process innovations can shift it towards non-price competitiveness. Improvements in the digitisation (and digitalisation) of the services sector will help with consumer outreach and facilitate entering foreign markets, in particular for small firms. Last but not least, in light of the identified list of needed improvements, we comment on the potential use of the EU Recovery Fund which was agreed in July 2020 to mitigate the social and economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic in EU MS. Thanks to this earmarked budget, the European Commission (EC) will be able to borrow EUR 750 billion from capital markets and redistribute it among MS as grants and loans between 2021 and 2027.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Labor Issues, European Union, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
288. In search of new opportunities. Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic
- Author:
- Agnieszka Kulesa, Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz, Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský, and Andrei Yeliseyeu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- We are pleased to present the report on circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. It is the product of a fruitful collaboration between four research institutions – Warsaw-based CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, CASE Belarus, the Institute for Politics and Society (Czech Republic), and the Institute of Economic Research, SAS (Slovakia). The partners teamed up to implement the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia”. Additionally, Youth Labour Rights, an NGO based in Belarus, was responsible for launching and maintaining a website addressed to Belarusians interested in working in Poland, Slovakia, or the Czech Republic. The implementation of this project was possible thanks to co-financing from the governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from the International Visegrad Fund. The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration. Circular migration flows between the countries examined in the report were affected by two events that occurred in 2020. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic. The worldwide spread of the coronavirus caused three major shocks – to public health systems, to states’ economies, and to the global financial system. The pandemic also temporarily closed borders and essentially stopped international migration. These measures, together with the border restrictions and lockdown measures which followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, have affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic as well. Surprisingly, in the case of Poland, however, this influence was limited in time and related only to the first months of the pandemic (March-April 2020). In fact, 2020 was the sixth consecutive year since 2014 during which the number of documents issued to Belarusian nationals as part of the simplified system of employing foreign nationals in Poland increased. Longer-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on circular migration patterns and related policies are yet to be seen, but preliminary observations are presented in the respective chapters. The second event that occurred in 2020 which affected circular migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic was the Belarusian presidential election held in August. The announcement of the official results, according to which Alexander Lukashenko could commence his sixth term in office as the president of Belarus, provoked political demonstrations and mass anti-government protests across the country. As a result, officially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Belarusian government closed land border crossings for people wishing to leave the country from 21 December 2020 until further notice. This issue, as it is rather recent and thus difficult to evaluate fully, is just signalled in the report. The report is divided into five main parts. It starts with the executive summary, which discusses the concept of circular migration and synthesises the main findings of the country chapters. The country-specific section includes a chapter concentrated on Belarus, followed by chapters dedicated to the Visegrad Group countries under study – Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Each country chapter ends with a set of recommendations addressed to policy makers. Notes on the contributors can be found at the end of the report.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Migration, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Belarus
289. Thinking Beyond the Pandemic: Monetary Policy Challenges in the Medium- to Long-Term
- Author:
- Marek Dabrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
290. European Security Seminar EU – NATO Cooperation: Seminar Report
- Author:
- Sebastian von Münchow and Matthew Rhodes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- From January 11-15,2021, the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies conducted for the first time a European Security Seminar (ESS) on EU-NATO cooperation. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the seminar took place virtually. Fifty-eight participants from twenty-seven countries attended the event via online seminars. The participants represented EU and NATO member states, countries that are solely NATO or EU members, non-aligned states, as well as befriended countries, and countries along Europe’s southeast and eastern flanks. A little more than two-thirds of the attendees were civilian officials; approximately one-third of the participants were female. The major goals of the ESS were to understand the new impetus and substance of EU-NATO strategic partnership, to explore selected areas where cooperation between EU and NATO organizations should be enhanced, and to identify how NATO, the EU, Germany, and U.S. can strengthen the capacity and capability of its neighbors, potential EU and NATO partners, while being mindful of constant hostile interferences by revisionist powers and the multi-faceted challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic presents to societies. To this end, the Marshall Center organized seven units of panels and lectures with experts and senior officials from the Brussels-based institutions as well as national governments, followed by outcome-oriented seminars for smaller groups. The Chatham House Rule (i.e. non-attribution of any statements made) was respected throughout the course.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
291. Greenwashing under growing regulatory scrutiny
- Author:
- Busisipho Siyobi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- On 10 March 2021, a set of ‘green finance’ rules designed by the EU to prevent greenwashing – the act of claiming that a fund is sustainable when in reality it is working against sustainability objectives – was applied to certain financial services sector firms in the EU. These rules – known as the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) – effectively categorise products as sustainable and non-sustainable. Asset management firms will be subject to rigorous disclosure requirements should they want to credibly market their funds as promoting sustainability. These rules are an attempt to regulate what is currently a disordered market, where firms are quick to employ the ESG concept for marketing purposes, but investors have no way of ascertaining whether the claimed credentials are legitimate or verifiable. In our view, this regulatory trend towards preventing concept abuse is a welcome development and will help to separate the wheat from the chaff in a world that is under immense pressure to achieve low-carbon growth. Early adopters of ESG principles – those who mainstream social and environmental responsibility into how the firm is governed – will see optimal long-run returns. Those who engage in greenwashing or are too slow to adapt will suffer long-run decline.
- Topic:
- European Union, Finance, Business, Sustainability, and Greenwashing
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
292. From indices to insight: A proposal to enhance the risk assessment of the Dutch Early Warning/Early Action process
- Author:
- Bob Deen, Adaja Stoetman, and Kars de Bruijne
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the course of the last three decades, countless scholars, diplomats and experts have sought to develop reliable ways to predict and prevent violent conflict and instability. These efforts have yielded a vast array of analytical instruments, ranging from indices that measure various proximate and structural causes of instability to forecasting models that estimate the probability of an outbreak of violent conflict. Predicting and preventing violent conflict and instability Presently, there is a great deal of data available ranging from better measures of political violence and better predictors of violence. Moreover, as data sciences advance, social scientists have been able to develop new models and refine their predictions. However, as such tools proliferate, so do the challenges for policymakers. First, more data does not always mean ‘better’ data. Key indicators such as on political inclusivity, local grievances and competition are often still not readily available. Second, more data and better methodologies have not always meant a better insight into conflict risks. While we have generally become better in predicting the continuation and intensity of ongoing conflict, it remains a major challenge to predict which countries will become unstable and when. Third, perhaps the biggest problem is that even when having a clear insight into conflict risks, converting these insights into actionable policies remains difficult. In these instances, it is often not a lack of information or insufficient early warning signals per se that pose the key obstacles, but rather the ability to convert these data points into policy-relevant analysis and to identify relevant entry points for preventive efforts.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Risk, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Netherlands
293. Unpacking open strategic autonomy: From concept to practice
- Author:
- Luuk Molthof, Dick Zandee, and Giulia Cretti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Amidst the weakening of the multilateral system, the rise of multipolarity, and the Covid-19 pandemic, the concept of European strategic autonomy (ESA) has gained considerable traction. In fact, according to European Council President Charles Michel, the strategic independence of Europe is ‘our new common project for this century’ and ‘goal number one for our generation’. Long seen as a French pipedream, and first applied in 2013 to Europe’s defence and security policy, the ambition of strategic autonomy is now backed by a growing number of member states and is increasingly applied to a broad range of policy areas, including industrial and trade policy.
- Topic:
- Multilateralism, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Strategic Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
294. Three Scenarios for Europe’s Conflict Landscape in 2030
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In September 2020, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) conducted an expert workshop on the future of conflict for Europe. Participants from across the continent were invited to develop forward-looking scenarios for crises impacting European security up until 2030.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
295. Strategic Foresight and the EU Cyber Threat Landscape in 2025
- Author:
- Valentin Weber, Victoria Cygne, and Lara Toriser
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- This report explores how the cyber threat environment of the European Union could develop in the next five years. It not only describes two plausible future scenarios for European policy-makers that are characterized by different levels of disruption, but also envisions strategies and mechanisms that the EU could deploy to overcome the various challenges that lie ahead.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Digitization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
296. Migration, Borders, and the EU’s Capacity to Act
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- This in-depth monitoring study assesses the EU’s capacity to handle migration. Why does the European Union respond so badly to migration crises? And why does it repeatedly allow itself to be blackmailed by neighboring states which extract concessions in return for holding back migrants? The ongoing situation at the EU’s border to Belarus is no isolated incident. It reveals vulnerabilities resulting directly from the way the EU regulates its borders and international migration. Over the past decade, a pattern has emerged: the more the EU tries to defend the Schengen Area, its passport-free travel zone, the more vulnerable it makes itself.
- Topic:
- Migration, European Union, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
297. The Digital Technology Environment and Europe’s Capacity to Act
- Author:
- Tyson Barker
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- This monitoring study explores the EU’s capacity to act in digital technology across five categories: 1) how the EU defines the problem it is attempting to address; 2) how the EU sets an agenda; 3) how the EU formulates policy; 4) how the EU implements policy; and 5) to what degree European policy has an impact at home and globally. Ultimately, the EU’s policy success will be determined by its ability to shore up areas where it is weakest and establish constant and interactive benchmarking to create honest performance assessments. The EU must set out clearly defined objectives that confront the tough questions of “what is essential” and “what is nice to have.”
- Topic:
- Environment, Science and Technology, and Digitization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
298. Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030
- Author:
- Roderick Parkes, Anna-Lena Kirch, and Serafine Dinkel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Containing twelve scenarios for the world in 2030, this report offers insights into how the EU can maintain and build up its capacity to act in the face of the major disruptive changes that are likely to come over this decade. It is being released in the run-up to German elections in September 2021 that will serve as a kind of referendum on ten years of government-heavy crisis management.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Science and Technology, Elections, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe
299. Learning from Tumultuous Times: An Analysis of Vulnerable Sectors in International Trade in the Context of the Corona Health Crisis
- Author:
- Oliver Reiter and Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic marks an unprecedented shock to global growth and trade and brought international dependencies into the spotlight. This triggered discussions on resilience and robustness of global value chains. In this paper we assess which products can be considered as vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level – referred to as ‘risky’ products – by constructing a ‘product riskiness indicator’ for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability. In a second step the bilateral imports of risky products are matched to multi-country input-output tables enabling the analysis of the importance of internationally sourced risky products by country and using industries. Higher-tech industries are more prone to supply-chain vulnerability given the large share of risky products in high-tech product categories. Third, we apply a ‘partial global extraction method’ to assess the GDP impact of reshoring. Assuming that imports of risky products are re-shored from non-EU27 to EU27 countries suggests an increase in the EU27 GDP of up to 0.5%. The non-EU27 countries lose from such re-shoring activities accordingly. This suggests that it is also in the interest of the supplier countries and industries to assure robust or at least resilient supply chains. Finally, selected policy aspects in the context of the envisaged EU Open Strategic Autonomy are debated.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, European Union, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
300. To Grow or Not to Grow: Belarus and Lithuania
- Author:
- Thorvaldur Gylfason and Eduard Hochreiter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- We compare the economic growth performance of Belarus and Lithuania since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Our interest in this country pair is driven by the two countries´ interwoven histories as well as by the fact that Belarus remains autocratic and strongly tied to Russia, while Lithuania has reinvented itself as a democratic market economy fully integrated into the EU. Our aim is to better understand the extent to which the growth differential between the two countries can be traced to increased efficiency, i.e., total factor productivity, in the use of capital and other resources via, inter alia, better institutions (intensive growth) as opposed to sheer accumulation of capital (extensive growth), the hallmark of Soviet economic growth. To this end, we compare the development of some key determinants of growth in the two countries since the 1990s. A simple growth accounting model suggests that advances in education at all levels, good governance, and institutional reforms have played a more significant role in raising economic output and efficiency in Lithuania than in Belarus, which remains marred by problems related to weak governance as well as autocratic rule. Further, as in Estonia and Latvia, the EU perspective has made a significant contribution to growth in Lithuania. The Russian connection has done less for Belarus. Finally, we touch upon the impact of the corona virus on the economies of the two countries.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Economic Growth, Post-Soviet Space, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Lithuania, and Belarus