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21. Observe and Act The role of armed and political movements in the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in Myanmar

Author:
Zin Mar Phyo, Veronique Dudouet, Ann-Kristin Sjoberg, Tilman Papesch, Katharina Schmitz, Nicolas Sion, Maw Day Myar, and Thinzar Linn Htet
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
Berghof Foundation and Fight for Humanity, with the support of the German Federal Foreign Office, conducted a participatory research project examining the role that armed and political movements can play to implement UNSCR 1325. The research is based on the experiences of two Ethnic Resistance Organisations (EROs) from Myanmar: the Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Karen National Union (KNU). One of the key findings is that the movements do engage with this agenda and have maintained a constant dialogue with women’s organisations in their territories. However, a conservative mindset still exists among parts of the leadership as well the general population. Consequently, measures to protect women in conflict areas are limited and mainly decided on by men, which reduce their effectiveness.
Topic:
Women, Conflict, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

22. Attentive, assertive, supportive EU support to nonviolent movements

Author:
Sergio Rodriguez Prieto
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
Recent years have seen a dramatic increase of mass nonviolent movements around the globe, taking the street and the online space to demand radical reforms towards greater democracy, justice, peace or equal rights. External support to nonviolent movements can help prevent violent escalation, mitigate repression, protect civic space, facilitate conflict transformation and foster sustainable peace. In a global context where the shrinking of civic space is coupled with the proliferation of protests, the European Union needs to develop a strategy to deal with nonviolent movements consistently and effectively. This paper explores the role that different EU institutional actors can play in supporting nonviolent movements and puts forward some basic recommendations to develop a more coherent conceptual framework and factor peaceful protests into the EU’s external action.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Social Movement, European Union, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Europe

23. Fostering constructive relations Approaches to trust-building in peacebuilding interventions

Author:
Viktoria Budde and Karoline Eichhoff
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The international community is currently facing a dilemma: although building trust between representatives of state institutions and the population is one of the fundamental components of cooperation between donors and recipient countries of support services in the security sector, we are observing worldwide that trust in state institutions fades. Confidence-building initiatives between citizens and, for example, the police and the military obviously do not always contribute to improvement. Therefore, basic assumptions about the role of trust and how trust-building works in conflict societies must be questioned.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Conflict, Social Order, and Trust
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Strategic Shifts and NATO’s new Strategic Concept

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO currently faces a fundamental challenge. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO adopted a de facto strategy of political, geographical and functional extension, welcoming new members, launching operations in new regions and multiplying its activities to address new low-intensity security threats.1 However, the pillars on which this strategy rested are now weakening. Today, strategic competition has returned and NATO’s military primacy is eroding, as much due to China’s impressive military modernization as because of the diffusion of military power enabled by globalization.2 Likewise, the liberal international order which allowed NATO to endure an uncertain military balance and a competitive international system during the Cold War is also under pressure. Free trade is under attack, democracy is receding, financial stability is harder to maintain and, last but not least, a seismic redistribution of wealth and power away from the Euro-Atlantic area and towards the Asia-Pacific is underway.3 Lastly, the non-traditional security threats which characterized the post-Cold War era remain, having even expanded in number and intensity.4
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

25. War in Europe: preliminary lessons

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The 24th of February, 2022, will remain a watershed date in European history; that day, the Russian regime led by President Vladimir Putin launched a military invasion of Ukraine, marking the return of war in Europe for the first time in decades. Much of what has transpired since the war’s onset has come as a surprise, whether in its political and strategic dimensions or in operational and tactical terms. The war was not an impossibility prior to 24 February, but it was certainly viewed in the West as improbable from the perspective of a rational cost-benefit analysis. This is especially so when one considers Putin’s attempt to swallow the entirety of Ukrainian territory. The means with which Russia attempted its conquest also raise a number of questions as to its armed forces’ level of preparedness, organisation, and operational ability. Today, it is clear that Russia’s military capacity was overestimated while Ukraine’s capacity to resist was underestimated. We have witnessed Russian forces encountering difficulties in achieving their military objectives and a Ukrainian nation-state – including its armed forces and its society – determined to deny Russia any gains. Politically, the Russian regime misread the very nature of the Ukrainian nation, which proved strong and unanimous in its rejection of the Russian endeavour – even in the country’s supposedly Russian-leaning East (with the exception of part of the Donbas). For its part, the Atlantic Alliance has displayed a political unity that was admittedly lacking in recent years prior. The United States has demonstrated unequivocal commitment to the defence of Europe, while European Allies have shown both political resolve and a will to take defence spending seriously. Very little dissent or freeriding has occurred in the West. Solidarity with Ukraine has been optimal, both politically and through the delivery of weapons. Still, Allied support is constrained by the imperative of non-belligerence. NATO Allies have made it clear upfront that they have no desire to directly confront Russia, hence the rejection of a no-fly-zone or any other move carrying the risk of inadvertent escalation. That said, NATO has deployed part of its NATO Response Force and activated its defence plans. Allies have strengthened their presence in each of the enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) four existing battlegroups, and committed to the deployment of four additional battlegroups in Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. 40,000 troops are officially deployed under direct NATO command on the Eastern flank as of the beginning of April, together with ships and air assets. Most importantly, the US has staged a comeback in Europe, with an overall deployment of 100,000 troops, among which approximately 20,000 have deployed since the beginning of 2022. The European Union (EU) too has acted swiftly, most notably through the imposition of sanctions on Russia in lockstep with US and UK sanctions. The EU has also flexed its muscle through the newly created European Peace Facility (EPF), which has delivered three instalments of EUR 500 million to finance the delivery of weapons to Ukraine. At the time of writing, EU states had not taken the decision to extend sanctions to oil and gas imports from Russia, unlike the US and the UK. If such a decision is taken, this would lead to a major energy crisis – and therefore economic crisis – in the whole of Europe. The war, then, raises a series of questions about the current and future European security order. First, will Western unity endure over time? What are the risks that the US or some European states will defect once the initial shock of the invasion has faded, once sanctions begin harming European economies, once the possibility of a re-engagement with Russia is floated, or once the Indo-Pacific inevitably regains US attention? Second, how will the war impact European security institutions – most notably NATO and the EU – and to what extent will the current situation positively shape the partnership between the two? Third, how resilient will Europe be in the face of a possible energy crisis provoked by the cessation of oil and gas deliveries from Russia? Fourth, from a military perspective, what lessons can be drawn from the first months of the Russian offensive regarding both Russia’s capacity (or incapacity) as a first-tier military power and in the changing (or unchanging) character of modern war? Finally, what initial lessons should we draw regarding nuclear deterrence and the Atlantic Alliance’s ability to dissuade harmful Russian nuclear-related actions? This collective Research Paper, authored by NDC Researchers and the NDC Commandant, explores these questions directly, identifying some preliminary lessons from the war. In the first chapter, Lt. Gen. Olivier Rittimann looks at the war’s potential impact on the distribution of tasks between NATO and the EU. The second chapter, written by Thierry Tardy, examines NATO’s response to Russia’s aggression and outlines implications for both the EU and for NATO’s forthcoming Strategic Concept. The third chapter, co-authored by Andrea Gilli and Pierre de Dreuzy, analyses Russia’s military performance on the Ukrainian battlefield and draws early conclusions about Russian military power. Fourth, Marc Ozawa explores the war’s impact on European energy security and Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. Finally, Cynthia Salloum assesses how the crisis questions the very concept of deterrence and Allies’ ability to deter the Putin regime. This Research Paper is published alongside a series of related events and publications (notably in the Policy Brief series) that the NATO Defense College Research Division has organized in relation to the ongoing revision of the Alliance’s Strategic Concept. To that end, it arrives in tandem with an adjacent NDC study on the strategic shifts impacting NATO’s core tasks and in anticipation of a multi-authored analysis (to be released in September 2022) of the forthcoming Madrid Strategic Concept.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

26. Harnessing Informal Social Safety Nets for Resilience and Development

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick, Hassan Alattar Satti, Sarra Beheiry, and Elizabeth Stites
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
People turn to each other to get through difficult times, to celebrate life events, or simply to ease daily living. Humanitarian assistance usually provides support only when there are large-scale crises that affect whole populations. What do people do when humanitarian assistance is not provided, when only one or a few households are affected? And when humanitarian assistance is provided, how does it affect these systems of mutual support? Established systems of mutual support (informal social safety nets) evolve to organize reciprocal support and make that support more predictable. This report examines the nature of these mutual support systems in selected communities in North and South Darfur, Sudan. Through research conducted in these communities, we explore how a full menu of these social safety nets operate, the functions they serve, who benefits, and the obligations on community members. The informal social safety nets (SSNs) identified in this study varied somewhat from one community to another, but were largely the same across all communities, regardless of state or livelihood specialization. These SSNs operate as coherent webs that support social connections and norms, providing social and practical benefits as well as immediate emergency assistance when needed. SSNs depend on relationships and trust to function and are governed by shared norms. We have seen that SSNs can also restore broken trust and violated norms. The conflict in Darfur violated norms and disrupted many relationships, and therefore undermined the SSNs that depended on them. However, some SSNs have played important roles in reconciliation.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Resilience, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

27. The social and economic cost of Egypt's prison system

Author:
Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights Legal Researcher and Lawyer
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Legal scholars have long been concerned with how to deter crime and limit its spread. For a long time, imprisonment has been used as a tool to serve these two purposes. On one hand, prisons function as a means to deprive inmates of their liberty and deter public and private crime. On the other hand, they also seek to reform convicts in a way that facilitates their reintegration into society by adopting appropriate rehabilitation programs for each prisoner.1 Despite the general deterrent impact of imprisonment, overreliance on such penalties can also have negative consequences – particularly when prisons fail to fulfil the rehabilitation component of their role. Prisons then risk turning into a hotbed that enables even more dangerous criminal behavior. As such, some legal scholars believe that penalties that deprive individuals of their liberties are no longer considered the best or only means to create more stable and secure societies, nor to reduce crime rates.
Topic:
Crime, Law, Legal Theory, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

28. Egypt transport policies 2014-2021

Author:
Mohamed Hegazy
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Egyptian Ministry of Transport’s1 YouTube channel provides an excellent documentation of the far-reaching changes taking place in the transport sector in Egypt: new highways connecting cities and new bridges; new train carriages for the national railways; new public transport systems such as the Metro, Monorail and Electric train. Between 2014 and 2021 the Egyptian state has invested 1 trillion EGP (~63.6 billion USD) in the transport sector2 in its bid to achieve sustainable development3 . This paper seeks to examine policies and state investments in the transport sector from a sustainable development perspective, focusing on the environmental and social dimensions.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

29. Financial Analysis of Health System Shifts in Egypt: Searching for “gratuitousness” and the right to health

Author:
Mohamed Gad
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Throughout the formation and development of the modern state of Egypt,1 health policies played two key roles: First, the state played a powerful and efficient role in the provision of medical services through facilities funded by public treasury revenues. Secondly, it strived to provide these services at the lowest possible costs or free of charge in what is known as the “gratuitousness” policy. Like many other free social policies that took root during the interwar period and were given new impetus with the advent of Arab socialism in the 1960s, the “free public hospital” principle was a subject of conflict between two movements that fiercely competed to control public policy in recent decades. The first movement defended the “gratuitousness” policy through tax-based expansionary fiscal policies targeting the wealthiest segments of society — a model similar to the welfare state adopted in some Western European countries. The second movement believed that tax reduction and redistribution policies in general were of vital importance to help the country attract investments and achieve the highest possible rate of economic growth and capital accumulation — in parallel with the rise of neoliberalism globally. The second movement recommended fiscal policies aimed at reducing the budget deficit, claiming that the latter affects investment opportunities in a multitude of ways. For example, it contributes to the rise of inflation rates, not to mention that public debt crowds out private borrowing opportunities, etc. This movement calls for transforming the interwar and Arab socialism policy legacy into a new pattern relying less on the public treasury and more on middle-class contributions, with “gratuitousness” policies being restricted to the poorest segments of society. This system requires continuous updates to the citizens’ income distribution database to help identify affluent and disadvantaged groups. This movement managed to gain traction in Egypt thanks to two major financial crises in the country. The first took place in the late 1980s with the steep rise in external debt, which led Egypt to adopt economic liberalization policies in the early 1990s known as stabilization and structural adjustment programs, which were supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The second crisis happened when the global financial crisis reached Egypt and political instability following the 2011 revolution, with the subsequent emergency of a black market for hard currency in 2016, leading to a new phase of financial and monetary policies with the support of the IMF and international donors. During the two crises, international financial institutions were reinforcing their policies in Egypt, particularly the scaling down of social protection policy costs covered by the public treasury. In this context, a new health insurance law was introduced and approved in 2018. The provisions of the new law represented a major transformation in the role of the state in the health sector in Egypt. The law is the first piece of legislation aimed at restructuring the health insurance system in Egypt since the 1960s. In essence, it aims to reduce dependency on “gratuitous hospitals funded by the public treasury” model and, instead, to adopt a new model that is more reliant on the middle-class to fund the public health system via deductions from their income. This model could improve public health services, while enabling the state to maintain its social role in supporting the disadvantaged. As the new health insurance law created a major shift in the history of health policies in Egypt, it also sparked widespread controversy. It is likely to stir even more controversy during its 15-year implementation period. So far, the law has only been applied in a small number of the least populated governorates.2 This research paper is not biased towards either of the two abovementioned movements, as both of them entail numerous contradictions. The “gratuitous” hospital model funded by the public treasury has long been criticized for the poor quality of services, even during its beginnings in the 1960s. The movement defending this model also did not propose any broader perceptions on distributive tax policies to increase public treasury resources, and it focused on the improvement of medical services.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Finance, and Financial Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

30. Impacting policies: Waste management and advocacy in Lebanon

Author:
Samar Khalil
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since 1994, Lebanon's waste management policy has consisted of implementing a series of emergency plans, each partially and poorly executed, and extended until a new crisis emerged. Devoid of any measures to move to long-term, sustainable planning, these local emergency fixes to the lingering waste crisis have incurred high financial costs for citizens as well as negative environmental, health, and safety impacts. Lebanese citizens are paying a high price for solid waste management (SWM). Lebanon spends $154.5 to manage every ton of solid waste, compared to Algeria, Jordan, and Syria which spend $7.22, $22.8, and $21.55, respectively (Human Rights Watch, 2020). The solid waste sector ranked first in terms of environment-related government spending in Lebanon, with a total of $647 million spent between 1998 and 2008 (Arif & Doumani, 2014). Expenditures on SWM reached $2.2 billion between 1996 and 2015 (Akiki, 2019). Despite these high expenditures, the cost of environmental degradation (COED) from the solid waste sector was around $66.5 million (0.2% of national GDP) in 2012 (Arif & Doumani, 2014), increasing to $200 million (0.4% of GDP) in 2018 (MoE, UNDP, 2019). To date, around 20% of the waste is recovered, out of which only 6% reaches recycling facilities, 36% is landfilled, and 44% is dumped in around 940 open dumps scattered throughout the country (MoE, UNDP, UNHCR, UNICEF, 2020). At the same time, the private company contracted since 1994 to collect and treat much of Lebanon’s waste – Sukleen (part of the Averda Group) – has generated over $170 million in revenues per year, one of the highest waste management revenues in the world (Chaaban, 2016). Sukleen has held a monopoly in waste management in Beirut and Mount Lebanon since the 1990s, when it won a contract for building, testing, and operating a waste incinerator located in the city of Amrousiyeh. Operation at that site was short-lived as angry residents burned the plant down in 1996, but through other contracts, Sukleen came to handle around 50% of the waste generated nationally, serving around 400 municipalities (Chaaban, 2016). The company’s contract was renewed three times by the Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) without an open tender. With each contract renewal, collection and processing fees increased, all paid using transfers from the Independent Municipal Fund, an intergovernmental grant system that disburses taxes and fees to municipalities. Successive plans for integrated solid waste management (ISWM) – in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2019 – never bore fruit. Instead, Sukleen’s monopoly persisted in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, with its contracts managed by the central government rather than the municipalities. Meanwhile, in other regions, municipalities and federations of municipalities managed their waste following a decentralized approach, with international aid being channelled to finance Mechanical-Biological Treatment (MBT) plants for sorting and composting, achieving low diversion rates from landfills and dumps (Azzi, 2017).
Topic:
Governance, Decentralization, Waste, and Management
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon