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  • Author: Kathryn McNabb Cochran, Gregory Tozzi
  • Publication Date: 08-2017
  • Content Type: Research Paper
  • Institution: Center for a New American Security
  • Abstract: Humanity is fascinated by prediction failures. The failure to predict the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks has replaced the failure to predict the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor as the United States’ canonical intelligence failure, but the failure to predict the Arab Spring is gaining ground. These failures have prompted some to argue that because prediction is a futile exercise, organizations are better served by investing in agile systems that can react rapidly to change rather than investing in predictive systems that help them anticipate change. The authors argue that this is a false dichotomy. Predictive systems can support agility, and recent advances in the science of forecasting offer multiple tools for organizations seeking to see around the corner faster and with more acuity.
  • Topic: Cybersecurity
  • Political Geography: Global Focus