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402. Disorder from Chaos: Why Europeans fail to promote stability in the Sahel
- Author:
- Andrew Lebovich
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- France, Germany, and Sahel countries launched the Sahel Alliance in 2017 with the aim of bringing together major international donors to better coordinate development assistance and other financing efforts for the region. The Alliance aimed to integrate security, development, and governance perspectives but has struggled to find coherence and effectiveness – although it has adopted some novel approaches. The worsening security situation in the Sahel led international actors to then set up new initiatives, including the Partnership for Security and Stability in the Sahel and, more recently, the Coalition for the Sahel. However, the relationship between these initiatives remains largely theoretical, with the practicalities of cooperation and burden sharing yet to be fully defined. These new initiatives risk privileging security solutions to complex problems, meaning that necessary governance reforms may fall by the wayside. This is despite widespread acknowledgement, including from senior French officials, that there is no purely military solution to the varied conflicts and challenges in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Diplomacy, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, North Africa, and Sahel
403. The best defence: Why the EU should forge security compacts with its eastern neighbours
- Author:
- Gustav Gressel and Nicu Popescu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The European Union and its member states have yet to start upgrading EU policies to their declared ambitions of a more geopolitical and strategically sovereign EU. The EU spends more on support for Eastern Partnership countries than the United States does, but Washington has long taken care of security sector reform and capacity building there. If the EU is to be more geopolitically influential in its own neighbourhood, it needs to start developing strategic security partnerships with key neighbours to the east and the south. The bloc should do so by creating a security compact for the Eastern Partnership, comprising targeted support for intelligence services, cyber security institutions, and armed forces. In exchange, Eastern Partnership countries should conduct anticorruption and rule of law reforms in the security sector. The EU should treat this compact as a pilot project that it will implement with important partners in the Middle East and Africa.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
404. Mapping African regional cooperation: How to navigate Africa’s institutional landscape
- Author:
- Amandine Gnanguênon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Regional organisations have proliferated in Africa in recent decades, with many organisations attempting to address similar issues in similar parts of the continent. International donors have helped create this situation by funding new and existing African regional organisations without questioning the downsides of doing so. In recent years, African regional organisations have increasingly sought to concentrate on security issues, contributing to a rise in the use of ‘hard security’ solutions at the expense of ‘people-centred’ approaches. This proliferation comes with further costs, such as wasted resources, and ‘forum shopping’ by state leaders. Europeans and other international donors should take stock of the situation they have helped create. As a first step, they should agree a tacit ‘non-proliferation agreement’ before considering other options.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa
405. The power of perspective: Why EU membership still matters in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Beáta Huszka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Aspiring EU members must resolve outstanding disputes as part of the membership process. This has proved a powerful tool over the years. Resolving bilateral problems, including border disputes, is especially crucial in the Western Balkans, where they are numerous. France’s October 2019 veto of accession talks for North Macedonia and Albania has already weakened Western Balkans publics’ trust in the EU. Should the EU’s influence wane, nationalist leaders will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring countries. The future of North Macedonia’s Prespa Agreement with Greece is under threat, and the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo and Montenegro could also prove a potential flashpoint. The EU should demonstrate its commitment to the Western Balkans by encouraging countries there to resolve their outstanding disputes, both to make them better candidates and to strengthen security in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
406. Sustainable finance: the road to greater energy security in the Visegrad region
- Author:
- Linda Zeilina
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- Linda Zeilina wrote a policy paper as a part of the Think Visegrad platform on the topic of sustainable finance and energy security of the Visegrád group countries. The coronavirus outbreak has made the unthinkable happen, with major economies grinding to a halt and international travel coming to a standstill. Now, it is time to think what is often seen as unthinkable: to reimagine economic models and energy systems, and to position the Visegrad countries well for the economic models of the future. By doing so, the region will also make itself much more secure and prosperous.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Finance, Coronavirus, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
407. COVID-19 and the defence policies of European states
- Author:
- Alice Billon-Galland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- At the time of writing, the COVID-19 pandemic still wreaks havoc around the world. Its scale and duration, as well as the full social and economic impact of lockdowns and social distancing measures, are yet to be seen. Exactly how the pandemic and its aftermath will impact the defence policies of European states in the long-term remains uncertain for a while yet. However, some Europe-wide trends--economic strategic, and geopolitical--are already visible. These will impact how Europeans (re)think their security after the pandemic, and therefore have implications for defence planners, decision-makers and armed forces throughout the continent.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
408. Catalyst or crisis? COVID-19 and European Security
- Author:
- Claudia Major
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 crisis is teaching European countries that a pandemic can destabilize societies, the economy and political institutions to the same extent that military or hybrid threats do. However, while the pandemic's impact on European security seems massive, it is difficult to isolate the COVID-19 factor: what is uniquely pandemic-driven, and what is the result of other elements, such as the lack of US leadership, is not always easy to determine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Institutions, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
409. NATO’s strategic redirection to the South
- Author:
- Stephen J. Mariano
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- NATO created the Strategic Direction South--the "Hub"--in 2017, in response to illegal migration into Europe from war-torn Libya, Syria, and Iraq, highlighting humanitarian and internal security concerns. As evidence began to emerge that criminal organizations and terrorist groups were leveraging migration flows, these fears coalesced with other security concerns, not only disrupting the stability of European societies but also threatening the security of European societies but also threatening the security of the Alliance. Eventually, NATO recognized that the situation was connected to deeper sources of instability and that solutions would require a comprehensive approach to the southernmost parts of "the South".
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
410. Time for a NATO strategy on North Korea?
- Author:
- Tina J. Park
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg puts it, North Korea remains a "global threat that requires a global rsponse". The threats posed by North Korea are arguably imminent, with the potential to cause serious harm to the security of NATO member states. Since 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in clear defiance of the Treaty on Non -Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that the regime withdrew from in 2003. To date, the international community has failed to tame North Korea's nuclear ambitions, despite various diplomatic and political efforts. In addition to its nuclear capabilities, Pyongyang has made significant advances with conventional weapons, both chemical and biological, as well as with its cyber capabilities. North Korea's substantive linkages to China and Russia, and non-state terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas in the Middle East, amplify their threats beyond the borders of the Asia-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Diplomacy, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
411. Scoping NATO's environmental security agenda
- Author:
- Michael Ruhle
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Environmental change is increasingly recognized as one of the major factors that will shape the global security environment. According to most experts, rising global temperatures will lead to rising sea levels and cause more extreme weather events, such as storms, flooding, droughts and wildfires. The firestorms that engulfed parts of Australia in late 2019 and early 2020, burning an area the size of Belgium and Denmark combined, and severely decimating that continent's wildlife, were a stark reminder of the force of these changes.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Climate Change, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
412. It’s that time of the decade again: some considerations for NATO’s eighth Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Jeffrey H. Michaels
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- In the Declaration that emerged from teh December 2019 London Leaders Meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was tasked to present Foreign Ministers with "a forward-looking reflection process under his auspices, drawing on relevant expertise, to further strengthen NATO's political dimension including consultation.". This new tasking has been largely attributed to French President Emmanuel Macron's remark the previous month that the Alliance was suffering from "brain death". Speaking at a press conference alongside Stoltenberg, Macron elaborated on his comment, complaining the Alliance was overly focused on "cost-sharing or burden-sharing" whereas too little attention was being placed on major policy issues such as "peace in Europe, the post-INF, the relationship with Russia, the issue of Turkey, who is the enemy?"
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America
413. Estonia’s Partners in the EU Coalition Machinery: Maximising Influence in the EU through Coalition-building
- Author:
- Kristi Raik and Josef Janning
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- This policy paper examines Estonia’s partners in the European Union with the aim of identifying ways to enhance its influence on policy-making. Effective coalition-building is also important for the EU as a whole, since it can improve the Union’s capacity to take decisions and act. The paper highlights that: Estonia has a relatively strong position in the EU, considering its small size and limited resources. It is particularly well-connected with the Nordic-Baltic partners and should seek ways to use this grouping more effectively as a means to reach out to larger member states and shape decisions in the Union. The main challenge is to build stronger links with France and Germany, something that has become all the more important due to Brexit. Teaming up with other countries that are better connected to Berlin and Paris, such as Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium, is one way to pursue this goal. It is too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the latest change of government in Estonia on the country’s influence and image among partners in the EU. However, the research interviews show some indications of a weakened position. Estonia should avoid losing its reputation as a results-oriented member state that takes into consideration the priorities of others while pursuing its own interests in a constructive manner.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Estonia
414. Final Week Cybersecurity Considerations: Top Takeaways
- Author:
- Belfer Center
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This election has already faced threats from cyber adversaries seeking to influence its outcome. The joint CISA-FBI alert confirming Russian state-sponsored activity targeting government networks on October 22 builds on other advisories around potential cyberattacks on election systems ahead of the election, including advisories of DDOS attacks against election infrastructure. Making unplanned or last-minute changes ahead of election day can introduce serious risks, especially given the short window to test changes. Here are some considerations as you work to address and prepare to counter potential cyber threats.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Elections, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States of America
415. An Intelligence Agenda for a New Administration
- Author:
- Belfer Center
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- America’s Intelligence Community (IC) faces a daunting array of traditional national security challenges. Terrorism remains a persistent global problem in form of Islamic extremism as well as far-right nationalism. Russia, China and other nation state threats have become a higher priority after a long period of neglect. Regional conflicts simmer and occasionally boil over, reminding us that our agencies must provide global coverage. And we are now engaged in perpetual cyber conflict, with ambient digital espionage and conflict raging across global networks. At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic has shown us that there are other threats to national security which require our intelligence agencies to broaden their focus beyond the familiar threats that have defined their missions since inception. America’s intelligence agencies must be able to support our national response to the existential challenges of our time - pandemic and biothreats, climate change, and nuclear insecurity. Each represents a high probability and high consequence set of risks for the nation and the world. As a President-Elect Biden’s team prepares to assume power, it should examine: Independence: Has political interference degraded the IC’s capability to collect and protect intelligence, and has the IC’s independence and objectivity eroded? How can we ensure that political interference never degrades IC capabilities and objectives? Priorities: How well prepared is our Intelligence Community (IC) to play its role of providing warning, perspective and options in a new world of disinformation, pandemic and climate change? Keeping Pace: Has the IC’s ability to provide intelligence needed to keep America safe kept pace with the rapid changes in technology and society?
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America
416. Technology Factsheet: Quantum Computing
- Author:
- Akhil Iyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Quantum computing refers to the use of quantum properties—the properties of nature on an atomic scale—to solve complex problems much faster than conventional, or classical, computers. Quantum computers are not simply faster versions of conventional computers, though they are a fundamentally different computing paradigm due to their ability to leverage quantum mechanics. Harnessing quantum properties, namely the ability for the quantum computer bits (called “qubits”) to exist in multiple and interconnected states at one time, opens the door for highly parallel information processing with unprecedented new opportunities. Quantum computing could potentially be applied to solve important problems in fields such as cryptography, chemistry, medicine, material science, and machine learning that are computationally hard for conventional computers. Although it is still unclear which specific tasks can benefit from parallelized quantum processing, known as quantum parallelism, it is expected that solutions to a number of problems, especially those related to optimization, can be greatly accelerated by using a quantum computer. Though the field is still in its early stages, the anticipated opportunities offered by the unique computational power of quantum computers have attracted investment from not only research universities, but also startups, technology giants like Google, IBM and Microsoft, and directed investment by governments around the world. This cross-sectoral ecosystem has supported recent progress in underlying hardware, software, and algorithms necessary to make the computers work. The field has seen rapid advancement, however systems that can accomplish various kinds of computation, and especially those that can be commercially viable, are still likely to be decades away. There are expected to be some near- term applications on the horizon though, making quantum computing as relevant as ever. Currently, U.S. governance and regulation regarding quantum computing—a subset of the broader field of quantum information science, which also encompasses quantum communication and quantum sensing—focus on investments in the technical knowhow, collaborative research ecosystem, and human capital required to advance the technology. Given quantum computing’s potential for impact, especially in the fields of digital security, healthcare, energy, and machine learning and artificial intelligence, it is important for policymakers to understand the likely trajectories of the technology over the coming decades, as well as the pace of development both within the U.S. and abroad. Furthermore, policymakers must consider how to effectively promote the development, application and implementation of general-purpose quantum technologies to realize their larger economic and social benefits, while simultaneously mitigating foreseeable risks to privacy, safety, security, and inclusion.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, and Quantum Computers
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
417. The European Defence Fund and Norway
- Author:
- Karsten Friis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The establishment of the European Defence Fund (EDF) represents an important step towards a more coherent European security architecture. It is broadly recognised that Europe needs to reduce duplication between, as well as the number of, weapons systems and platforms. The EU recently opened up for associated countries to participate in the Fund, but the Norwegian government has failed to set aside money for the EDF, despite official policy to participate.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Norway
418. Russia’s view of Georgia: a NATO proxy yet again?
- Author:
- Julie Wilhelmsen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After the crises in Ukraine, and despite the Georgian government’s allegedly more pragmatic attitude towards Russia, official statements from Moscow increasingly project Georgia as hostile. This may be the result of the Kremlin stepping up a propaganda campaign to put pressure on Georgia, but it is also linked to growing perceptions of Georgia as becoming an agent of NATO. Moreover, Russia’s increasingly insistent rhetorical and practical support for the independent status of the two Georgian breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is still framed with reference to Kosovo as a tit-for-tat in a conflict with the West. In parallel with this hardening in Russian views, there is hardly any diplomatic contact between Russia and Georgia. The regional multilateral frameworks have become dysfunctional, obstructed by polarization. Further Georgian NATO integration could entail an increasing risk of war, unless frank discussions and engagement with Russia can be promoted.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia
419. Measuring Russia’s attention to Europe and the world
- Author:
- Kristian Lundby Gjerde
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Based on a mapping of mentions of country names in more than 30,000 Russian official speeches, press conferences, meeting transcripts, and official statements, this brief provides insights into changes to Russia’s engagement with the world during the 21st century. Without disentangling the subtleties of relations – such as their security, economic, or cultural dimensions and their benign or adversarial features – this approach allows the brief to sketch answers to questions that would otherwise be left to guesswork.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
420. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like
- Author:
- Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Leadership, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Libya, Germany, and Syria
421. Upgrading Europe’s Civilian Crisis Management: A Strategic Planning Process in Ten Steps
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel and Christian Mölling
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union sees civilian CSDP missions as a hallmark of its foreign policy. But these missions are implemented ad hoc, without any kind of systematic or strategic planning. As a result, the EU does not have the right capabilities to address essential challenges. Capability-based planning organized into a ten-step process offers a much better way. Existing EU initiatives can be used to kick-start a new approach.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Crisis Management, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe
422. Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran
- Author:
- Saeid Golkar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of unrest, from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student protests spanning 1999-2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and the December 2017-January 2018 upheaval in smaller cities and urban fringes. The most recent instance, sparked in November 2019 by a gas tax hike, spread to as many as one hundred municipalities and still reverberates today. The hardline Iranian regime has successfully put down all challenges to its authority thus far, causing numerous injuries and deaths in the process. State agents are also known to have perpetrated torture in prisons. But as Saeid Golkar contends in this prescient Policy Note, a climate of coercion has undermined Tehran’s legitimacy and its ability to coopt various social classes. Future protests, if they continue to grow in volume and violence, could exhaust even the regime’s multilayered security forces.
- Topic:
- Security, History, Social Movement, Protests, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
423. A Paris Reset on Hezbollah? Implications for French Interests and Regional Security
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In this study, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt explores the history and current status of Hezbollah operations against French interests, and details how a change in Paris's longstanding opposition to designating the group could bolster French efforts to stabilize Lebanon. Lebanon’s corrupt political system needs major reforms, but Hezbollah has indicated, unsurprisingly, that it will reject any changes that diminish its political status. Specifically, the group insisted in late September that it maintain control of key ministries in any future government. This demand cut against the work of French authorities seeking to help stabilize the country following the devastating port blast in early August. In his response, President Emmanuel Macron signaled a break from typical French passivity toward Hezbollah. He denounced the group’s attempts to pose as a legitimate political party while engaging in militant activity independent of the Lebanese state. In this Policy Note, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt shares the little-known story of Hezbollah’s targeting of French interests, dating to the early 1980s. He then shows how the group poses a unique and growing set of challenges to France, both at home and abroad, and argues that Paris should reconsider its longtime opposition to designating Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organization. Such a policy change, he contends, would bolster Macron’s efforts to stabilize Lebanon while mitigating threats within French territory.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon
424. Mediterranean Sea: a paradigm of contemporary conflicts
- Author:
- Admiral Jean Casabianca
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Looking back at my military career, during which I sailed and battled above and below so many oceans, I am struck by the duality of the Mediterranean Sea. It is indeed for me as well a familiar environment as an area of perpetual uncertainty, which contributed to define me as a man, a sailor and a military leader. Predicators say that the Mediterranean, stage of the first major clashes between civilizations, will not be anymore the international centre of gravity and that the Pacific Ocean will take over this role. It remains however a major hub for the interactions of key strategic competitors.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Mediterranean
425. The Networking Strategy of Contemporary Chinese Diplomacy
- Author:
- Jai Chul Heo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- China is actively building Network Power in economic and traditional security and non-traditional security areas, while in some cases maximizing its own interests by using the Network Power already formed. In particular, China is building Collective Power at a rapid pace in significant areas. China also actively participated in existing networks and established Positional Power by preoccupying important positions. However, China’s Network Power still seems to have a long way to go in terms of Programming Power to build new systems, unlike Collective or Positional Power. What is notable in the process of analyzing China’s Network Power is that competition between the U.S. and China is fierce over Network Power.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economics, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
426. Partial Local Autonomy in Southern Syria: Conditions, Durability, and Replicability
- Author:
- Alexander Decina
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In July 2018, Daraa Governorate, once home to an array of rebel groups and local governance councils, supported by significant international assistance, was partially recaptured by the Government of Syria (GoS). Through a combination of force and negotiations, the GoS has restored control over key routes and infrastructure, although a number of former rebel groups have retained limited autonomy in their own communities. Since then, poor security and economic conditions, inadequate services, and competition between and among GoS security actors and former opposition factions have challenged the status quo in Daraa, but, by and large, the situation has held. These negotiated outcomes – and the GoS’s willingness to accept them – were predicated upon multiple factors, including the relatively moderate nature of southern opposition factions, Russian and Israeli military postures, and the historical connections of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) in Daraa. While lessons learned from the south are important, the particular conditions and outcomes i
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Local, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
427. Emerging Security Challenges: framing the policy content
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd, Detlef Puhl, and Sean Costigan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Security challenges are ‘emergent’ or ‘emerging’ when the wider community of security experts begin to discuss and debate a given issue as a prelude to developing, resourcing and then implementing appropriate policy responses. Some security challenges are "ab ovo" – they emerge onto the policy landscape at incredible speed, complete and entire, rather than slowly over a long gestation period. For some institutions, the ‘real’ emerging challenge is defined as much by institutional and cultural change needed to enable more efficient, effective and legitimate policy response as it is by the inherent complexity of the challenges themselves. Highest priority challenges (e.g. climatological, nuclear, biological, health and agriculture-related) are those that threaten the survival of people and institutions. Second order priority challenges undermine essential ways of life and the fabric of state-society relations, the nature of democratic governance and the integrity of the ‘social contract’.
- Topic:
- Security and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Global
428. Tool 2: Policing and Gender (Gender and Security Toolkit)
- Author:
- Lisa Denney
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This Tool is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit, which comprises nine Tools and a series of Policy Briefs. Within police services, this Tool is aimed at the policy rather than the operational level, with relevance for senior police, gender units and those interested in improving police effectiveness through integrating a gender perspective. While police services are a key audience for this Tool, it is intended for a wide readership – including parliaments, government departments with policing responsibilities, civil society organizations, development partners, international police assistance providers and researchers working to improve policing and gender equality. Police reform is not solely the work of police services, but of a wider set of actors who support and influence the police and their operating environment. This Tool sets out a range of options for integrating a gender perspective and advancing gender equality in and through policing, drawing on experience from multiple contexts. While it provides guidance in terms of examples and checklists which borrow from good practices in different contexts, what is relevant will differ across time and place and require adaptation. For that reason, the Tool also sets out conditions that are important in achieving progress. The Tool includes: why a gender perspective is important for policing; what policing that advances gender equality and integrates a gender perspective looks like; how policing can advance gender equality and integrate a gender perspective; case studies that draw out learning from specific contexts; suggestions for assessing a police service’s integration of gender; other useful resources.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Governance, Law Enforcement, Women, and Criminal Justice
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Europe, United Nations, Switzerland, and Global Focus
429. Gender and Private Security Regulation
- Author:
- Anna Marie Burdzy, Lorraine Serrano, and Megan Bastick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit, which comprises nine Tools and a series of Policy Briefs. The other Tools and Policy Briefs in this Toolkit focus on specific security and justice issues and providers, with more focused attention on what gender equality looks like and how to achieve it in particular sectors. It is intended that the Toolkit should be used as a whole, with readers moving between Tools and Policy Briefs to find more detail on aspects that interest them. This Policy Brief explains why integrating a gender perspective is important to the regulation of private military and security companies (PMSCs) and provides guidance to States on doing so in national legislation, contracting and procurement policies, as well as certification, oversight and accountability frameworks for PMSCs. The Policy Brief: Outlines what PMSCs are and the role of States in their regulation; explains why a gender perspective is needed for effective regulation of PMSCs; and presents a range of priorities and entry points for States to integrate a gender perspective in regulation of PMSCs.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Law Enforcement, Women, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United Nations, and Global Focus
430. A Security Sector Governance Approach to Women, Peace and Security
- Author:
- Marta Ghittoni, Léa Lehouck, and Megan Bastick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit, which comprises nine Tools and a series of Policy Briefs. The other Tools and Policy Briefs in this Toolkit focus on specific security and justice issues and providers, with more focused attention on what gender equality looks like and how to achieve it in particular sectors. It is intended that the Toolkit should be used as a whole, with readers moving between Tools and Policy Briefs to find more detail on aspects that interest them. This Policy Brief explains how applying the principles of good security sector governance and engaging with security sector reform (SSR) can help to achieve the goals of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda. Over the last decade the UN system and many states and international actors have recognized that SSR should be gender responsive, identifying and addressing the different security and justice needs of women and men, girls and boys, across different parts of the community. In some SSR programmes, priorities have been set to promote the participation of women in the security sector. At the same time there is a need to step up the engagement of the WPS community with issues of security sector governance. This Policy Brief argues that applying a security sector governance lens to WPS helps to reveal the key barriers to and drivers of change. This Policy Brief: Explains the principles of good security sector governance; examines how security sector governance and SSR are addressed in the WPS Agenda; outlines how a security sector governance approach can catalyse the transformative and sustained change needed to realize the WPS Agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Law Enforcement, and Women
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United Nations, and Global Focus
431. Tool 1: Security Sector Governance, Security Sector Reform and Gender (Gender and Security Toolkit)
- Author:
- Henri Myrttinen and Megan Bastick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This Tool is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit, which comprises nine Tools and a series of Policy Briefs. Tool 1 is mainly intended for use by policymakers and practitioners working in or working with security and justice sector institutions to increase gender equality – be it equality within the institutions themselves, or achieved through the work of the institutions within society. Some users might be approaching these issues through implementation of Women, Peace and Security (WPS) commitments, or in relation to a security sector reform (SSR) process. The Tool also aims to be of use more widely to justice and security providers, people involved in oversight and management, civil society organizations, the media and academic researchers. The other Tools and Policy Briefs in this Toolkit focus on specific security and justice issues and providers, with more focused attention on what gender equality looks like and how to achieve it in particular sectors. It is intended that the Toolkit should be used as a whole, with readers moving between Tools and Policy Briefs to find more detail on aspects that interest them. The Tool: Introduces why gender matters in security sector governance (SSG) and in SSR processes, and outlines the benefits of integrating a gender perspective. It explains key concepts that are used in the Toolkit: gender, intersectionality, masculinities, femininities, LGBTI, gender equality and gender perspective, and also SSG and SSR. It gives an overview of some of the relevant international, regional and national legal obligations with respect to gender and SSG and SSR processes. It presents a vision of what integrating a gender perspective and promoting gender equality mean for security and justice providers, for management and oversight of sector and justice services, and for SSG and SSR processes. It presents several different pathways for the security and justice sector to integrate a gender perspective into SSG and SSR processes and advance gender equality. It focuses upon: defining security needs in an inclusive, gender-responsive manner; adopting policy frameworks to integrate gender equality into justice and security governance; gender training for security and justice providers; using staff with specialized gender expertise; changing masculine institutional cultures to increase women’s participation and diversity. It offers advice on how to overcome resistance to working on gender equality within the security and justice sector. It suggests elements of an institutional self-assessment checklist on integrating a gender perspective. It lists other useful resources to support work on gender equality with the security and justice sector, and in relation to SSG and SSR.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Law Enforcement, Women, Criminal Justice, and LGBT+
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, United Nations, and Global Focus
432. The Development of Hydrocarbons in East Africa: Political and Security Challenges
- Author:
- Benjamin Augé
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- East Africa has the potential to experience a gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom in the coming years due to several projects that have been released. Mozambique has approved two projects totaling more than 15 million tons per year (Mt/yr.) of liquefied gas and a third should be started by the end of 2019. The first ENI Floating Liquefied Natural Gas plant (FLNG) will come onto the market in 2022 and four other onshore liquefaction trains, two of which will produce 6.44 Mt (Anadarko/Total) and two of which will produce 7.6 Mt (ExxonMobil/ENI), will be available around 2025. However, with the recoverable reserves, the companies involved are counting on 50 or even 60 Mt/yr. by 2030. This volume will help this East African country to achieve the world’s fourth-largest LNG export capacity in the medium term after the United States, Qatar and Australia. As for Tanzania, no development should be approved before 2020 in the best-case scenario.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Oil, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and East Africa
433. Russia’s Militia Groups and their Use at Home and Abroad
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- What makes the militia milieu so unique and important for understanding today’s Russia is that it finds itself at the intersection of state institutions, patronage mechanisms, criminal structures, and grassroots illiberal activism. Abroad, the Kremlin plays through it one of its major “hybrid warfare” cards, outsourcing activities traditionally conducted by intelligence entities and allowing for plausible deniability. The militia realm thus seems destined to play a growing role in Russia’s law-enforcement, military and intelligence culture both at home and abroad. Marlene Laruelle is Research Professor and Associate Director of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University (Washington DC) and Co-Director of PONARS-Eurasia. She has been Associate Research Fellow at Ifri’s Russia/NIS Center since January 2019.
- Topic:
- Security, Nationalism, Military Affairs, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
434. Prospects for the New EU Strategy on India: Game Changer or Business as Usual?
- Author:
- Garima Mohan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The new European Union (EU) strategy on India marks a major moment of departure in EU-India relations. It reflects three critical shifts: firstly, the EU no longer views India from a “trade lens” only, recognizing its important geopolitical role in maintaining a multipolar Asia. Second, the strategy frames EU-India relations in the context of broader geopolitical developments, primarily the rise of China. Recognition of the China challenge and its impact not only in Europe, but also on the balance of power in Asia, has pushed the EU to change the nature of its partnerships in the region, particularly with India. Finally, the strategy links European security and prosperity to developments in Asia, broadening the scope of EU foreign policy substantially. This paper analyses the new EU strategy on India and highlights areas, which represent a departure from previous strategies. The paper looks specifically at proposals for greater foreign and security cooperation, for securing a rules-based order, increasing regional connectivity, improving trade and investment, and building better coordination on and with India. These proposals are commendable and respond to a long laundry list suggested by experts from both sides over a long time. They also fit well with India’s priorities, namely responding to increasing Chinese political, economic and military presence in South Asia, security in the Indian Ocean, as well as more proactive engagement in regional and global institutions. Finally, the paper suggests ways of taking this forward and ensuring the strategy does not remain a paper tiger in the long arsenal of EU-India declarations. While more dialogues on global and strategic issues is a great idea and will help change perceptions in New Delhi that the EU is not a strategic actor, the EU will have to ensure this is not hindered by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ already overstretched capacities and the 30 existing EU-India dialogues. Focusing on ongoing debates in India and Europe in these dialogues, particularly connectivity projects, maritime security in the Indian Ocean, 5G networks and infrastructure might also open up new avenues of cooperation. Overall the EU-India relationship has witnessed remarkable momentum over the last four years – aided by political will from both sides, the China challenge, friction in transatlantic ties, and common challenges within Europe and India. The new strategy is a good first step to build on this momentum. However, it needs to be translated into action fast.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, South Asia, India, and European Union
435. The Forgotten Peace at Twenty-Five: How to Protect and Strengthen Israel-Jordan Ties
- Author:
- Ghaith al-Omari and Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the peace treaty, both parties and the United States have strategic interests in upholding and reinforcing the relationship. The optimism that characterized the signing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty a quarter-century ago has long since dissipated. Today, the peace rests on a strong security foundation but lacks popular support, particularly on the Jordanian side. Nevertheless, there remain important opportunities for strengthening Israel-Jordan relations and preserving that pillar of America’s steadily eroding security architecture in the Middle East. It is critical for Washington to prioritize Jordan on its agenda. This includes urging the still-to-be-formed Israeli government to take responsible action on two fronts: keeping Amman’s interests in mind when formulating policy toward the West Bank, and implementing long-delayed initiatives that would help Jordan’s struggling economy.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, Jordan, and United States of America
436. Cyber-Security: The Threats from Russia and the Middle East
- Author:
- Ferry de Kerckhove
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The art of war has changed considerably since the end of the Second World War. In the last 15 years, the centre of gravity has slowly shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The West is increasingly being destabilized. Hybrid warfare and cyber-attacks have become increasingly effective alternatives to both hard and soft power. Russia is a major player in this domain; so is Iran. Other players are joining the fray, most of them hostile to the West, such as Iran and Russia’s client states. The barriers between civilian and military are fading quickly. All-out war now happens in a space that’s invisible to the naked eye. Not only is such warfare threatening us, but it also has consequences we have barely begun to assess. The divide between good and bad is blurring. Marshall McLuhan said the medium is the message. Today, the medium and the message are an undecipherable continuum where evil and lies coexist with truth and goodwill. Technological prowess increases vulnerability, but technology is also at the heart of corresponding systems of security. Thus, we have fully entered a new arms race where deterrence comes from the other side knowing what you don’t want him to discover, but what you want him to fear. Voltaire said: “If you wish to speak to me, let us start by defining the meaning of our words.” In this day and age, this mantra is particularly applicable to the definition of contemporary threats as well as of the targets, or even who is in the sights of Russian and Middle Eastern leaders. “Cyberspace is a domain characterized by the use of electronics and the electromagnetic spectrum to store, modify, and exchange data via networked systems and associated physical infrastructures. In effect, cyberspace can be thought of as the interconnection of human beings through computers and telecommunication, without regard to physical geography.” Consequently, “(c)ybersecurity is the practice of protecting systems, networks, and programs from digital attacks. These cyberattacks are usually aimed at accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users; or interrupting normal business processes. Implementing effective cybersecurity measures is particularly challenging today because there are more devices than people, and attackers are becoming more innovative.” Discussions focus on whether Russia or China is the heavyweight in terms of threat. Some argue that China is more subtle while Russia is more of a rogue. But it is undeniable that China’s attempt to change the fundamental paradigm of international relations, while using and hopefully subduing the existing international order’s mechanisms to its advantage, represents a holistic approach and is thus more threatening to the world if it even partly succeeds. Indeed, the planet’s centre of gravity is moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific and that means the global threat comes from China. If we needed a reminder, in 2014 Chinese hackers stole the personal information of more than 22 million people connected to U.S. security clearance processes. Not bad for five years ago!
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, and Middle East
437. Funding Defence for the Age of Accelerations
- Author:
- Ross Fetterly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- At a time when even large, high-tech Silicon Valley corporations that operate as market disruptors are challenged to keep up with the pace of change, national Western governments need to ensure that defence funding is responsive to persistent, dramatic and non-linear shifts in the international strategic environment. The United States is experiencing a “deepening crisis of credibility in global affairs”,2 largely resulting from an America-first posture, rather than a multilateral approach with traditional allies. Some nations now view the U.S. as “undermining the international order”,3 and reliance on the U.S. as the leading democratic nation is less certain. Indeed, periods of great economic change “driven chiefly by economic and technological developments, which then impact on social structures, political systems, military power, and the position of individual states”,4 create a dynamic that shifts power, influence and trade among nations. Further, nations that can “develop, produce, and deploy technology the most effectively”5 can gain a comparative advantage in the current security environment, where the rate of technological change is accelerating. However, with adversaries advancing their military technology in increasingly shorter cycles, market dominance by Western defence firms has only fleeting or transitory advantage. The revolution in military technology has been a constant topic for analysts, but the changing military and defence department skill sets required in the future security environment are equally important, with the cyber-realm and space being two prominent examples.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, and Military Spending
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
438. Hyperinflation in Venezuela: A Stabilization Handbook
- Author:
- Gonzalo Huertas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The unrelenting surge in prices in Venezuela has crippled the economy and deepened the humanitarian crisis there. Huertas lays out a feasible stabilization plan to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation. The extent of the humanitarian crisis and shortage of basic goods and services suggests that, on the fiscal side, a stabilization plan should focus primarily on reallocating rather than reducing spending. The authorities should avoid austerity policies and instead spend on taking care of the Venezuelan people. Stabilizing the price level while providing relief to the country’s population would require significant financial assistance from the rest of the world, so it is critical that Venezuela secure strong financial support from the international community. Successful stabilization requires a credible plan to transition to a responsible fiscal policy, the financial resources to carry it out, and the political will to sustain it.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Finance, Inflation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
439. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis
- Author:
- Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
- Topic:
- Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
440. Opening Internet Monopolies to Competition with Data Sharing Mandates
- Author:
- Claudia Biancotti and Paolo Ciocca
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the past few years, it has become apparent that a small number of technology companies have assembled detailed datasets on the characteristics, preferences, and behavior of billions of individuals. This concentration of data is at the root of a worrying power imbalance between dominant internet firms and the rest of society, reflecting negatively on collective security, consumer rights, and competition. Introducing data sharing mandates, or requirements for market leaders to share user data with other firms and academia, would have a positive effect on competition. As data are a key input for artificial intelligence (AI), more widely available information would help spread the benefits of AI through the economy. On the other hand, data sharing could worsen existing risks to consumer privacy and collective security. Policymakers intending to implement a data sharing mandate should carefully evaluate this tradeoff.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Science and Technology, Privacy, Internet, Monopoly, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
441. Toward a More Effective UN-AU Partnership on Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management
- Author:
- Daniel Forti and Priyal Singh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The United Nations and the African Union (AU) have worked in tandem since the AU’s establishment in 2002. During this time, their partnership has evolved to focus increasingly on conflict prevention and crisis management, culminating in the 2017 Joint UN-AU Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. But while the organizations’ collaboration on peacekeeping has been extensively studied, other dimensions of the partnership warrant a closer look to understand how to foster political coherence and operational coordination. This report, done in partnership with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), therefore considers the evolution of the strategic partnership between the UN and the AU, with a focus on their approach to conflict prevention and crisis management. It looks at this partnership at the member-state level in the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council, as well as at the operational level between various UN and AU entities. It also assesses the partnership across several thematic issues, including the AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative; mediation; women, peace, and security; electoral support; peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction and development; and youth, peace, and security. Based on this analysis, the paper offers several recommendations to guide UN and AU stakeholders in improving cooperation. These include strengthening council-to-council engagement, working toward a collective approach to conflict prevention and crisis management, creating a dedicated team within the AU Peace and Security Department to support the partnership, better aligning work on peacebuilding and post-conflict reconstruction and development, building momentum on the AU’s Silencing the Guns initiative, and expanding diplomatic capacities to support the partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Crisis Management, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
442. Navigating Crisis and Opportunity: The Peacekeeping Transition in Darfur
- Author:
- Daniel Forti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In the face of evolving security dynamics and geopolitical pressures, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council and the UN Security Council initiated the withdrawal of the AU-UN Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) in 2017. This transition is a uniquely complex undertaking—all the more so following Sudan’s political revolution in April 2019, which required the UN and AU to rapidly adapt their support to the country. This complex environment is putting all the principles of peacekeeping transitions to the test. This paper examines the dynamics of this peacekeeping transition in Darfur, focusing on UNAMID’s drawdown and reconfiguration, as well as the UN’s efforts to build the capacity of other actors to sustain peace following the mission’s exit. It highlights five broad priorities for this transition going forward: Strengthening political engagement between the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council; Translating the AU-UN joint political strategy into an effective follow-on presence; Reinforcing the transition concept; Integrating human rights and protection in all areas of work; and Sustaining international attention and financial support. This paper is part of a larger IPI project on UN transitions and is complemented by similar case studies on UN peacekeeping transitions in Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, and Liberia, as well as a paper exploring experiences and lessons from these three transitions.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Darfur, Haiti, Liberia, and Côte d'Ivoire
443. Incorporating Gender into UN Senior Leadership Training
- Author:
- Lesley Connolly and Sarah Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Comprehensive leadership training is necessary to ensure that peace operations are effective and that senior leaders are prepared for both the daily challenges and the inevitable crises of peacekeeping. A gender perspective is of central importance to such training. However, gender considerations—from gendered conflict analysis to recognition of who is in the room when decisions are made—remain poorly understood at a practical level, including among senior mission leaders. This issue brief discusses what it means to apply a “gender perspective” and the importance of such a perspective for senior leaders to effectively implement mission mandates. It provides an overview of existing gender-related training and preparation techniques for senior leaders, including gaps. It concludes with a series of recommendations on how trainings and approaches to senior leadership training can better reflect these considerations: The current status of gender training for senior leaders should be assessed. Facilitators of trainings should ensure that their curricula address and respond to a peacekeeping workspace dominated by men. Facilitators should be aware that leaders often think they do not need training. Trainings for senior leaders should be designed to reflect the complexity of implementing women, peace, and security obligations in a mission. Efforts to ensure gender parity in senior mission leadership should be strengthened. Gender advisers should be included as formal members of a mission’s crisis management team and play an active role in decision-making bodies. Facilitators should understand the gender dimensions of a given training scenario and be aware of the gender balance among participants. The UN should develop resources for leaders, including key documents and guidance on understanding the gender dimensions of their mission.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
444. Transitioning to National Forces in Somalia: More Than an Exit for AMISOM
- Author:
- Fiona Blyth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- When the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deployed in 2007, the AU and the UN Security Council expected that the United Nations would eventually take over from the AU force. But while a UN peacekeeping operation remains a theoretical option for the council, its prospects have diminished. Instead, the focus of Somali and international efforts has shifted to planning for AMISOM to transition directly Somali security forces without an interim UN mission. This issue brief outlines the factors behind this shift in intentions, including the new Somali administration’s commitment to assuming responsibility for security, a general agreement that the time had come for an exit strategy, and the Security Council’s reduced appetite for peace operations. It also lays out the objectives, approaches, and status of implementation of the Somali Transition Plan. Despite steady progress, there is still a long way to go in implementing this plan. Reforms are encountering resistance from vested interests, and al-Shabab poses an ongoing threat. Any sustainable transition from AMISOM must be a long-term project that includes not just a military handover but also political decisions on security and the structure of the state. It also depends on aligning national priorities and international efforts and the willingness of all security actors in Somalia to work together in a pragmatic, transparent, and coordinated way.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Transition, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
445. Preventing Violent Extremism While Promoting Human Rights: Toward a Clarified UN Approach
- Author:
- Chuck Thiessen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In response to the threat of violent extremism, the UN has adopted a comprehensive approach that involves both aligning ongoing interventions with the goals of preventing violent extremism (PVE) and implementing PVE-specific programming. These initiatives aspire to use human rights-based approaches as opposed to hard-security counterterrorism responses. To date, however, there has been inadequate research on how the UN and other international organizations can promote human rights as part of their PVE programming. This issue brief introduces findings on the strategic shift of UN peacebuilding interventions toward PVE and the barriers these interventions face to protecting human rights, drawing on research conducted in Kyrgyzstan. It concludes that PVE approaches to peacebuilding are fundamentally ambiguous, which may be hindering promotion of human rights. These ambiguities lie both in the terminology and strategies of intervention and in the drivers of radicalization and violent extremism. By clarifying its approach to PVE, the UN can dilute the inherent contradiction in its dual role as a critic and supporter of host states and reduce the odds that its interventions legitimize human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, United Nations, and Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Global Focus
446. The Global Pushback on Women’s Rights: The State of the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda
- Author:
- Sarah Taylor and Gretchen Baldwin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- For two decades, the women, peace, and security agenda has been the subject of policy development internationally, regionally, and nationally. But by many indicators, the global status of these commitments to gender equality is under threat. In the multilateral system, a growing number of states are questioning established standards of women’s rights, while international policy and programming struggle to adapt to the gendered implications of the changing nature of conflict. This issue brief takes stock of the state of the women, peace, and security agenda in the current geopolitical context, with a view to supporting strategic advances at the upcoming twentieth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (2000). It looks at characteristics of the current geopolitical context that are of concern to the defense of women’s rights, what these changes have meant for how the international community seeks to build peace and improve security, and how we can evaluate approaches to implementing WPS commitments in relation to these pressures on the multilateral system. The paper concludes that in order for the women, peace, and security agenda to be an effective tool, it must move beyond rhetoric and be woven into actionable policy. It must become a driving force behind the development and implementation of peace and security policy and programming rather than being buffeted by political considerations that elide the status and rights of women. This depends on a sustainable increase in resources and improved accountability within the multilateral system.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Women, Multilateralism, Accountability, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
447. Focus on 2020: Opportunities for the Twentieth Anniversary of Resolution 1325
- Author:
- Sarah Taylor and Gretchen Baldwin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- As the twentieth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (2000) on women, peace, and security (WPS) approaches, the ad hoc nature of and limited accountability for implementation of the WPS agenda are undermining its full promise. This is despite increasing recognition that efforts to build and sustain peace are dependent upon the full participation of women and respect for their rights. There is thus a need for concerted, strategic commitment to addressing the remaining gaps in implementation of the WPS agenda. This paper identifies opportunities for the twentieth anniversary of the adoption of Resolution 1325, particularly for the UN Security Council, its member states, and the UN system. It builds on IPI’s scene-setting issue brief “The Global Pushback on Women’s Rights: The State of the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda.” The paper concludes with several steps the UN and the international community can take to support substantive progress on WPS: Use creative mechanisms to increase women’s participation: The multilateral system can support new initiatives such as the regional women mediator networks. Leverage the tools of the UN Security Council: The council should consistently request gender-sensitive analysis and recommendations, mainstream the WPS agenda across all policies, and better integrate the work of the Informal Expert Group on WPS into its daily work. Significantly strengthen accountability: Increasing accountability requires changing the political calculus for engaging on the WPS agenda, particularly at the national level. Move the focus to the field: Dialogue around WPS needs to shift from UN headquarters in New York to focus more on the countries and regions grappling with conflict. Increase financing: Donors should increase their financial commitments to the WPS agenda and ensure funding supports long-term peacebuilding efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Women, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
448. Lessons for “Partnership Peacekeeping” from the African Union Mission in Somalia
- Author:
- Paul D. Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Deployed to Mogadishu in March 2007, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) operates through a complicated and extensive system of partnerships. This has been referred to as the “AMISOM model” of “partnership peacekeeping.” While this specific configuration of forces and mechanisms is unlikely to be repeated, AMISOM remains the longest-standing case of a peace enforcement operation built on such international partnerships. If the AU and UN are going to continue deploying missions into such difficult environments, AMISOM’s experience offers lessons for how partnership peacekeeping can work better. This report summarizes the main operational-level lessons across seven themes: force generation, logistics, security sector reform, protection of civilians, strategic communications, stabilization, and exit strategy. Many of these lessons have not been truly learned, internalized, and acted upon by the actors and organizations in question.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Partnerships, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
449. 2019 ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus: Enhancing Bilateral and Regional Cooperative Security for India and Japan in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Monika Chansoria
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, cooperative security became a catchphrase term used generally to describe a more peaceful approach to security through increased international cooperation. The cooperative security model essentially embraced four concentric and mutually reinforcing “rings of security”: Individual Security, Collective Security, Collective Defense, and Promoting Stability. In 1992, American strategists — Ashton Carter, William Perry, and John Steinbruner discussed cooperative security in terms of providing new avenues toward world peace, and argued, “Organizing principles like deterrence, nuclear stability, and containment embodied the aspirations of the cold war… Cooperative Security is the corresponding principle for international security in the post– cold war era.” Two years later, in 1994, former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans described cooperative security as tending “… to connote consultation rather than confrontation, reassurance rather than deterrence, transparency rather than secrecy, prevention rather than correction, and interdependence rather than unilateralism.”
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
450. The Quad process: The evolution of diplomatic and maritime security cooperation in the Indo Pacific
- Author:
- Thomas S. Wilkins
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The US-Japan-Australia-India Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue (QSD), or simply “Quad,” process continues to attract the attention of policy-makers, analysts, and scholars interested in the impact of this new and potentially significant alignment formation on the security dynamics of the Indo Pacific region. The reemergence of the Quad meetings in 2017 after their abrupt termination over a decade ago in 2007 has led analysts to wonder if it is now here to stay this time as an enduring additional component of the region’s multifarious security architecture. It has also animated a heated debate about its true nature and purpose, with commentators bitterly divided in their appraisal. Some believe it lacks real substance and cohesion, whilst others argue it has the portentous makings of a new military alliance aimed at containing the PRC. Nevertheless, despite prodigious efforts on behalf of the strategic commentariat, the actual substance and nature of the Quad itself remains enveloped by mixed signals, misapprehensions, and mischaracterizations. As Graeme Dobell recounts: ‘The Quad is more notable for the questions it provokes than the answers it offers.’
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
451. Third UN Conference on Law of the Sea (1973–1982): Promoting Peace, Security, Law, and Order in the Oceans
- Author:
- Monika Chansoria
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- The Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea spanning between 1973 and 1982 remains engraved as an exceptional event in the pages of history of international relations, being one of the most ambitious projects of the United Nations, represented with nearly all of the international community. The Conference was viewed as a test of constructive international cooperation in an increasingly interdependent system where such cooperation was extremely vital.1 By means of Resolution 2750C(XXV), the UN General Assembly on December 17, 1970, decided to convene the Third Conference on the Law of the Sea in 1973, and instructed the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of the Sea-Bed and the Ocean Floor beyond the Limits of National Jurisdiction to act as a preparatory body for this conference. The Committee held six sessions and a number of additional meetings in New York and Geneva between 1971 and 1973 following which the UN General Assembly requested the UN SecretaryGeneral to convene the first session of the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea in 1973 in New York to deal with organizational matters, and a second session in 1974, as well as subsequent sessions if necessary, to deal with substantive work (as per Resolution 3029 (XXVII).
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Law, Law of the Sea, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
452. What do we know about cyber escalation? Observations from simulations and surveys
- Author:
- Benjamin Jensen and Brandon Valeriano
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Do cyber operations alter how states respond to international crises in a way that creates incentives for decision makers to cross the Rubicon and use military force to settle disputes? This question is central to current cyber strategy debates and the idea of persistent engagement and defending forward in cyberspace. The answer is surprising: no. Based on the evidence, cyber operations offer a valuable escalatory offramp.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
453. UN Funding Cuts for Peacekeeping Have Consequences for Ghana: After sixty years of UN peacekeeping
- Author:
- Fiifi Edu-Afful, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Maya Mynster Christensen, Naila Salihu, and Peter Albrecht
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Contributing personnel to UN peacekeepinghas been central to Ghana’s foreign policy andessential in shaping the country’s security sector. However, with the police and militarystill facing considerable challenges at home, and with the prospect of funding for UN peacekeeping missions being cut, Ghana’s domestic stability might be affected. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Peacekeeping experiences should be used more forcefully to create accountability among Ghana’s security forces. ■ There should be a comprehensive review of Ghana’s approach to international peacekeeping with a view to understanding and articulating more clearly the relationship between strategic foreign-policy objectives and the provision of domestic security. ■ The UN and troop-contributing countries should make an effort to understand the implications for them both of planned cuts in peacekeeping budgets.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
454. Ghana's Peacekeeping Efforts Abroad Have an Impact at Home: The Many Implications of UN Peacekeeping
- Author:
- Festus Aubyn, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Fiifi Edu-Afful, Maya Mynster Christensen, and Peter Albrecht
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The UN deploys thousands of peacekeepers in support of peace processes and state-building in countries and regions that are emerging from conflict. The example of Ghana shows that the impacts of these missions are not just felt in countries that host UN missions, but also in those that provide them with troops. Recommendations ■ The Ghanaian government should conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of peacekeeping on the country’s security sector in order to inform its contributions to the UN in the future. ■ The Ghanaian army and police should continue to build on the lessons learned from deploying security personnel abroad and maintain their focus on consolidating the democratic and accountable foundations of the security sector. ■ The UN should build a stronger understanding of how countries that contribute to peace- keeping missions are affected politically, financially and in respect of their security by making these contributions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
455. We Need to Distinguish Between Local and Globalist Foreign Fighters
- Author:
- Maja Touzari Greenwood
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The broad definition of the term ‘foreign fighter’ causes operational problems for risk assessments. It is therefore important for security officials to identify significant variations by classifying actors into major categories. RECOMMENDATIONS ■When assessing the risk of continued security threats from foreign fighters, it is crucial to distinguish strategically between foreign fighters who join local rebel groups and those who join globalist groups. ■Ways should be provided for foreign fighters who have joined local rebel groups to ‘opt out’ and return home after the end of fighting in order to discourage them from becoming globalist foreign fighters and to stem potential flows of foreign fighters to new theatres of conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
456. Inside the Russian Digital Domain: Plug in, plug out
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The digital domain is an arena of opportunity for Russia in which to attempt to achieve its various objectives. However, it is also a source of threat, as it contains the possibility of attacks on Russia’s digital infrastructure, including the ability to send a relatively uninterrupted flow of information to the public. The continued development of artificial intelligence has the potential to upset the system, and Russia, which will trail the leading states within this field, is still in the early phases of formulating a response to this challenge. Recommendations ■ Remember that the digital domain in Russia is seen not only as an arena of opportunity, but also as a source of threat to the state (or rather to the regime). ■ Be prepared for Russia to think creatively to minimize the gap separating it from the world’s leaders in the development of AI. ■ Be prepared for Russia to work for an international regime restricting the use of AI for military purposes.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Power Politics, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
457. Disinformation Goes South: Political technologies threaten developing countries
- Author:
- Adam Moe Fejerskov and Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Political technologies executed from within the digital domain are increasingly deployed in the Global South. Here, social media monopolies and an upsurge in the number of new digital media users allow information operations to reach millions and affect important political developments. The consequences can be fatal, as seen in Myanmar. Recommendations Be prepared for a rapid transfer of the political technology of contemporary information operations to political actors in the Global South ■ Anticipate information operations, including the use of disinformation, that exploit the combination of social media monopolies and an upsurge in the number of new digital media users ■ Invest in digital media literacy and social media accountability mechanisms in states that have recently been affected by media disruption
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Science and Technology, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
458. Achieving a Sustainable Peace in Yemen Lies with Locally Driven Initiatives
- Author:
- Maria-Louise Clausen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Yemen will not be solved by a peace agreement between the Houthis and the internationally recognized government due to the increased fragmentation of internal political and economic structures. RECOMMENDATIONS ■Denmark is well positioned to take on a bigger role in pushing for a sustainable peace agreement and a realistic transitional framework. ■Denmark should prioritize building close links with local actors. ■Denmark should support and empower local authorities and communities in parallel with an effort to build the capacity of the Yemeni state.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Non State Actors, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Gulf Nations
459. Can China Buy Peace? Money and Security in the South China Sea
- Author:
- Yang Jiang
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite China’s strong economic influence over Southeast Asian countries, tensions in the South China Sea have been flaring up again this year, as domestic oppositions and external interventions create dilemma for Southeast Asian governments. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ When considering joining the freedom of navigation operations in the SCS Denmark should consider that foreign interference will likely escalate Chinese military activities. ■ Denmark’s delicate relationship with the US and China must be carefully evaluated and managed. ■As a major maritime nation it is important for Denmark to secure a free sea through diplomacy and UN institutions. ■European countries have much room to enhance their contribution to regional development in Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Organization, History, Power Politics, Economy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
460. Denmark's China Challenge
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A common refrain in Denmark is that China is too far away to be a threat to Danish economic, foreign and security policy interests. This is no longer the case. Danish policy-makers acknowledge that China’s rise as a global superpower presents Denmark with new challenges. However, transforming this strategic thinking into practice is no simple task. Recommendations Intensify cooperation between the Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs to ensure Denmark’s initiatives in foreign policy, security and economic relations with China are more closely integrated. Beware of the bilateral. Beijing’s new assertive foreign policy and US-China strategic competition require that Denmark leverage its interests increasingly through the EU, NATO and other multilateral bodies. Assess the economic vulnerabilities of Danish industries in China and diversify trade and investment across Asia’s emerging markets and developed economies in the G7/EU.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Power Politics, Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Denmark
461. The Impact of Remote Surveillance in Iraq: A tool of coercion or public security
- Author:
- Maria-Louise Clausen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The state of Iraq is struggling to exert control over its territory. As a result, remote surveillance is being used to enhance the effectiveness of policing. However, constant surveillance may have a negative impact on emerging state–society relations. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Invest in research focusing on the impact of surveillance on state–society relations in the Global South. ■ Work to introduce transparency in the use of surveillance in the Global South. ■ Encourage a discussion of issues of privacy and the regulation of airspace in the Global South.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Fragile States, Surveillance, Violence, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Global South
462. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party
- Author:
- Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
463. Progress on implementing the Briefing note Hague Declaration on Climate and Security
- Author:
- Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Hague Declaration is a six-point plan covering a call for an institutional mechanism on climate and security within the UN system, for a process to develop a climate security risk assessment in Lake Chad, and for concrete action in two of the most vulnerable post-conflict countries: Mali and Iraq. It is also a commitment by a growing community of practice to systematically address security risks related to climate change - from analysis to action, built on the conviction that everyone must work together to address and manage risks and threats before they arise. This briefing note by Susanne Wolfmaier and Janani Vivekananda presents the outcome of a survey by the Planetary Security Initiative on the objectives with the Hague Declaration, its achievements so far, and the gaps in and challenges to progress that still need to be overcome.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Mali, Global Focus, and The Hague
464. Stormclouds and Solutions: Anticipating and Preparing for Climate Change and Security Risks in the Caribbean
- Author:
- Shiloh Fetzek and Oliver Leighton-Barrett
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- A region long-tested by both extreme weather events and illicit economic activity, the Caribbean has developed abundant expertise in climate science and disaster resilience. It also has many underlying governance and security challenges which may amplify each other as climate impacts intensify. In this policy brief authors Shiloh Fetzek and Lt. Commander US Navy (ret.) Oliver Leighton-Barrett identify the key regional security risks exacerbated by climate change, which include: 1. economic contraction, violence and criminal activity; 2. disaster impacts and political repercussions; 3. food and water insecurity, damage to livelihoods and social unrest; and 4. Central and South American security deterioration impacting on the Caribbean. Anticipating and addressing these challenges by integrating security cooperation and climate resilience initiatives could support existing risk management structures and advance long-term economic and socio-political stability in the Caribbean.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- South America, Central America, and Caribbean
465. The Warning Signs are Flashing Red: The interplay between climate change and violent extremism in the Western Sahel
- Author:
- Tom Middendorp and Reinier Bergema
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Development and security cannot do without the other. It is not enough to counter violent extremism by addressing the symptoms; understanding and focusing on root causes, in regions such as the Western Sahel, is essential to countering violent extremism. Countries in the Western Sahel suffer from the consequences of climate change: increasing droughts and water shortages make it harder for 50 million people – who depend on agriculture and livestock for their survival – to support their families. Joining a non-state armed group, for income and food, becomes ‘a tempting, or sometimes even the only, alternative.’ To address these challenges, the authors propose five recommendations: 1. Routinise and institutionalise attention to climate change in security institutions 2. Factor in (counter)violent extremism and counterterrorism into climate change efforts 3. Create a comprehensive early warning mechanism 4. Ensure comprehensive engagements: terrorist threats are not only a military issue, addressing economic and financial sources, online recruitment, supply chains, and climate change is essential for strong stabilisation efforts 5. Improve regional cooperation
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Development, and Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
466. Climate Security: Making it #Doable
- Author:
- Dan Smith, Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe, and Karolina Eklöw
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19-20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security. Assisted by Rickard Söder and Mikaela Wang, authors Dan Smith, Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe and Karolina Eklöw review the progress made in global and regional organisations on addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks despite the turmoil in global politics at large. It builds on the two previous progress reports for the Planetary Security Initiative (PSI). The report focuses on progress in the UN and in regional intergovernmental organisations, both showcasing achievements and highlighting new challenges.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, United Nations, Sustainability, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
467. Women’s Participation and the Fate of Nonviolent Campaigns: A Report on the Women in Resistance (Wire) Data Set
- Author:
- Erica Chenoweth, Conor Seyle, and Sahana Dharmapuri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- The Women, Peace and Security agenda is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale. Passed in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating more effective international peace and security–related policies. Since 2000, more than 80 countries have adopted national action plans and policies to robustly implement the Women, Peace and Security agenda. In 2017, the US Congress adopted the Women, Peace, and Security Act to incorporate the principle of gender equality into US foreign policy. As the global agenda on Women, Peace and Security is increasingly implemented, the transformational role of women as direct actors in issues of peace and security is becoming more obvious. This is certainly true in the case of formal institutions, where women are increasingly represented in higher positions internationally. It is also true in less formal, official domains: women have been at the forefront of civil resistance movements throughout history, and they have been visible leaders in contemporary nonviolent resistance movements from Sudan to Algeria and beyond.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Women, Peace, and Nonviolence
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
468. If You Want Improved Security Outcomes You Have Tools
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- THE GLOBAL FRAGILITY ACT OF 2019 Requires the U.S. government – in collaboration with civil society – to develop a 10-year strategy to enhance stability and to reduce violence and fragility globally. “The President...shall establish a comprehensive, integrated, ten-year strategy...to contribute to the stabilization of conflict-affected areas, address global fragility, and strengthen the capacity of the United States to be an effective leader of international efforts to prevent extremism and violent conflict. The strategy shall focus on addressing long-term causes of fragility and violence, and shall…address the long-term underlying causes of fragility and violence through participatory, locally led programs, empowering marginalized groups such as youth and women, inclusive dialogues and conflict resolutions processes, justice sector reform, good governance across all sectors, community policing and civilian security, and inclusive and accountable service delivery.”
- Topic:
- Security and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
469. Transforming Security: Women Define Security Differently
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- The findings in this poll came from two online surveys conducted in the summer and fall of 2018 by the Women’s Alliance for Security Leadership/ICAN and World Pulse. Additionally, two focus groups were held in Jakarta, Indonesia in July 2018. The final survey included both qualitative and quantitative questions in five different languages: English, French, Portuguese, Spanish and Arabic. Most participants completed the English version. Participants were asked questions about how they define security, their security concerns and priorities, and security and representation. Women were recruited to participate through ICAN’s membership network, as well as through World Pulse’s networks and through promotions on social media platforms.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
470. US Leadership on Women and Foreign Policy: Recommendations for the 116th Congress
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- Passed unanimously in October 2000, United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (UNSCR 1325) underscores women’s agency, voice, and capacities as intrinsic to creating better policies and more equitable peace agreements.1 UNSCR 1325 was drafted and adopted by the UN Security Council with significant leadership from women-led civil society groups around the world. It has been followed by seven other resolutions (UNSCRs 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, and 2242), which make up the Women, Peace and Security Agenda (WPS).2 WPS is a transformative policy mandate with a global constituency. It provides policymakers with the tools to end cycles of violent conflict, create more equitable peace processes, halt inequalities between men and women, and promote gender equality on a global, national, and local scale.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Women, Peace, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
471. Strengthening European Leadership on Global Health Security
- Author:
- Amanda Glassman, Jeremy Konyndyk, and Liesl Schnabel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Impending leadership transitions in EU institutions provide a unique opportunity to bolster European action on global health security. This would be a double win for the EU: advancing its efforts to foster progress in developing countries while also protecting Europe itself against potential disease risks. To help strengthen the EU’s leadership on global health security, the new Commission should
- Topic:
- Security, Health, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe
472. Stress Tests: An insight into crisis scenarios, simulations and exercises
- Author:
- Daniel Fiott
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Until the arrival of General Norman Schwarzkopf to United States Central Command (CENTCOM) in November 1988, American war planners assumed that the US’ biggest threat in the Middle East would come from a Soviet invasion of Iran. The Soviet Union had been a net exporter of oil until the late 1960s, but in order to meet its own growing industrial and energy demands Moscow looked increasingly to the Middle East and countries such as Iran to bolster its oil reserves. Based on his own reading, however, Schwarzkopf turned this planning assumption on its head and with CENTCOM he worked on a wargame based on an intra-regional conflict between Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia rather than a Soviet invasion. Apart from the precise details about potential US fatalities (Schwarzkopf and his team believed the US would suffer more casualties than it actually did), the general and his wargamers were right: Iraq eventually invaded and annexed Kuwait in August 1990 and Operation Desert Storm was over before the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991. Schwarzkopf’s wargame had been prophetic in preparing the US military for war with Iraq. Of course, the history of wargaming and scenario planning does not always mirror the success achieved by Schwarzkopf. Companies such as Shell that are famed for their in-house scenario planning departments do have notable periods of success, but the company’s ‘futures branch’ was nearly shut down three times in almost 50 years of scenario planning at the firm because Shell’s leaders saw little value in its work. In some cases, sound scenario planning and the assessments they lead to are not taken seriously enough: for example, vulnerability assessments of the Fukushima nuclear plant showed that there was a risk from natural disasters such as tsunamis but the consequences of these assessments were downplayed. Most of the time, however, crisis scenario planning unfortunately emerges in the wake of a major crisis such as the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 in the US or the global financial crisis of 2007.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Hybrid Threats, and Strategic Planning
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
473. The EU as a Maritime Security Provider
- Author:
- Eva Pejsova
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Maritime security is one of the fundamental strategic interests of the European Union. Then HR/VP Federica Mogherini reiterated this fact at the conclusion of the informal meeting of EU defence ministers in Helsinki at the end of August 2019, adding that there was a ‘growing demand for an EU role as a maritime security provider not only in our region, but also further away’ – especially in Asia and the Indian Ocean. As a global trading power, the EU is vitally dependent on free, open and safe maritime shipping: 90% of its external and 40% of its internal trade is seaborne. The value of goods transported by sea is 1.8 times higher than that of goods transported by air and almost three times higher than that of goods transported overland.1 In 2018 alone, the value of trade between the EU and Asia, home to its main economic partners, reached €1.4 trillion, with 50% of it transiting through the Indian Ocean. As a result, the EU has a vested interest in a secure maritime domain and it is only natural that it should contribute to its preservation, especially in waters connecting it to its main economic partners in Asia. It is also natural that Asian countries want to see Europe becoming more proactively involved in addressing the many maritime security challenges – both traditional and non-traditional – in the Indo-Pacific, especially given its aspiration to play a greater security role in the region. The question is: can the EU perform such a role? How realistic is its ambition to become a maritime security provider in the region and how might it go about accomplishing this? The purpose of this Brief is to look into why, where and how Europe could contribute to improving the maritime security environment in the Indo-Pacific. A closer look at the current situation and the multitude of maritime security challenges facing littoral states in the region reveals several niches that the EU could fill. Analysing the Union’s key attributes and achievements in the maritime security field, the Brief identifies features and capacities that can effectively add value to regional security and stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, European Union, Navy, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Indo-Pacific
474. Who's Fighting Whom in Tripoli: How the 2019 Civil War is Transforming Libya's Military Landscape
- Author:
- Wolfram Lacher
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Khalifa Haftar’s offensive to take Tripoli, Libya’s capital and largest city, has stalled. Launched in April 2019, the campaign has triggered the largest mobilization of fighters in western Libya since the revolution of 2011. It has also provoked new rifts within and between communities, and is preparing the ground for future political struggles. Who is Fighting Whom in Tripoli: How the 2019 Civil War is Transforming Libya’s Military Landscape—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—examines the identities and interests of the forces fighting each other over control of Tripoli. It shows that the divides of 2011 are central in structuring the two opposing alliances and in shaping the motivations of many involved in the war.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Alliance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
475. Executive Summary: Understanding Russian Strategic Behavior Russia Strategic Initiative-Workshop 3 March 18-19, 2019
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The “Understanding Russian Strategic Behavior” Workshop #3 brought together twenty-five academics and practitioners from the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Belarus to discuss strategic issues concerning Russian behavior and policy. This workshop is one in a series of semi-annual events that is hosted by the Marshall Center, funded by USEUCOM’s Russia Strategic Initiative (RSI) office, and is supported by RAND. The workshop ran for two days and consisted of short presentations followed by more lengthy discussions. The international research team examined a variety of topics, including Russia’s strategic behavior in the Arctic as well as in the Nordic-Baltic region, Ukraine, and Syria; Russian engagement with Belarus, Turkey, and Afghanistan; sub-institutional cultures; the impact of U.S.-Chinese strategic competition on Russian strategic behavior; sanctions, and Putin’s relationship with Russia’s elite.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Territory
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
476. The Great Puzzle: China in Central and Eastern Europe
- Author:
- Małgorzata Jankowska
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- China’s engagement in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) through the 16+1 economic platform addressed investment needs imposed by the global financial crisis. Despite limited outcomes, it was accompanied by a negative EU narrative towards the sponsor of the program. The main argument has been that the platform undermines EU cohesion and unity. This narrative discouraged bilateral or sub-regional initiatives of CEE states towards China and served to mobilize European Institutions around policies that were primarily shaped by Berlin.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
477. Terrorism: Two Faces of Women
- Author:
- Lea-Grace B. Salcedo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Societal support for both terrorist groups and state-led counterterrorism efforts is dependent upon the extent to which the populace believes that these organizations reflect the societies in which they operate. The composition of the society as well as the society’s ability to address grievances and meet the expectations of the populace are of key importance when it comes to the integration of women into both types of organizations. In the past, women have primarily played support roles to men but increasingly, especially in recent years, they have also served in nontraditional roles in both terrorist organizations and the security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Women, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
478. Gang Violence as Organized Violence: Implications for the WPS Index
- Author:
- Mariana Viollaz and Jeni Klugman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- In this note, we experiment with potential improvements on the measurement of violence in the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Index to better reflect the reality on the ground in countries experiencing high levels of gang violence. First, we propose an extension to the measure of conflict from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program—currently the most comprehensive measure of organized violence—by including a more accurate number of deaths associated with gang violence alongside “battle deaths.” We show what difference this would make to WPS Index rankings for a set of four Central American countries and Mexico.
- Topic:
- Security, Women, Violence, Peace, and Gangs
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Mexico
479. The First Year of the Compact: How the Review Process Can Make Civilian CSDP More Capable
- Author:
- Carina Böttcher
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The EU needs more and better capabilities in civilian crisis management to fulfill its level of ambition and to more effectively contribute to security and peace in its wider neighborhood. In this, the Civilian CSDP Compact plays an important role. It has introduced an annual review process to take stock of implementation and identify capability shortfalls. This review process has great potential to improve the way the EU and its member states plan and develop capabilities for missions.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe
480. Berlin’s Preliminary 5G Decision: Limiting Damage and Learning Lessons
- Author:
- Kaan Sahin and Didi Kirsten Tatlow
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Despite the security concerns of the US, EU, and Australia, Germany plans not to exclude any telecom equipment vendors, including Chinese companies such as Huawei, from its 5G network. This stance reflects a narrow view of the issue that prioritizes short-term economic interests and fails to uphold national security and democratic values. Widespread criticism, including from within the government, shows that political decision-makers in Germany need a more sophisticated, forward-looking approach to 5G.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Germany, Australia, North America, and United States of America
481. A New Dimension of Air-Based Threats: Germany, the EU, and NATO Need New Political Initiatives and Military Defense Systems
- Author:
- Torben Schütz, Christian Mölling, and Zoe Stanley-Lockman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The range of air-based threats is expanding with considerable speed and intensity. The main reason is the proliferation of technologies and weapons systems. Germany could play a leading role in the necessary adaptation of arms control regimes and in the development of new air defense capabilities. To this end, Germany should initiate a PESCO project on short-range air defense and an air defense capability cluster within NATO.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
482. The Compact Roadmap: Towards a New Level of Professionalization in Civilian CSDP
- Author:
- Carina Böttcher
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- EU member states agreed the Civilian CSDP Compact in late 2018 to breathe new life into EU civilian crisis management. Its 22 commitments are a response to a double challenge: a rapidly changing security environment and persistent shortfalls in the planning, deployment, and conduct of missions. Implementation will be challenging. Political momentum depends on producing tangible results early on, notably through National Implementation Plans and a workable Civilian Capability Review process.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, and Professionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
483. German Leadership in Arms Control: Three Pillars to Achieve More Realism
- Author:
- Christian Mölling and Torben Schütz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Arms control is traditionally at the core of Germany’s cooperative security approach. It is therefore a natural leader for a new Western arms control policy. But Germany must overcome the Cold War approach that no longer suits today’s security environment. A new approach should build on three pillars: security, military, and alliance realism. While such a change entails risk and uncertainty for German decision-makers, the price of upholding existing outdated arms control architectures is already higher.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
484. Technology and Strategy: The Changing Security Environment in Space Demands New Diplomatic and Military Answers
- Author:
- Torben Schütz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- On the brink of being weaponized, space is becoming a military-operational environment. Proliferating anti-satellite weapons threaten space security and enable first strikes against military space assets crucial to conventional and nuclear forces. This affects the global strategic landscape and decreases crisis stability among major powers. As current arms control regimes are insufficient, Germany and NATO should push new initiatives to keep space peaceful and advance military planning should they fail.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
485. Creating the Political Space for Prevention: How ECOWAS Supports Nationally Led Strategies
- Author:
- Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines how ECOWAS has successfully addressed the concerns of their member states in West Africa to build nationally led, upstream prevention strategies. ECOWAS’ upstream prevention approaches support national sovereignty by putting the ownership of early response and structural prevention in the hands of national actors.
- Topic:
- Security, Sovereignty, Governance, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
486. Breaking the Silos: Pragmatic National Approaches to Prevention
- Author:
- Paige Arthur and Céline Monnier
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- In this policy briefing, our fifth in our series on prevention at the UN, we draw on examples from Côte d’Ivoire and Timor-Leste to illustrate how countries have developed integrated actions on prevention that cut across sectors, including security, development, and human rights. We then highlight options for the UN to better support these strategies through cross-pillar approaches and identify practical ways forward for governments implementing prevention approaches.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Human Rights, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Timor-Leste, and Côte d'Ivoire
487. Discussion Brief: Costs of Inequality and Exclusion
- Author:
- Paul von Chamier
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This discussion brief is a contribution to the Grand Challenge on Inequality and Exclusion, an initiative of the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies. Inequality and exclusion harm society in a number of ways, ranging from fraying trust in institutions and increasing volatility in politics, to causing economic damage, physical insecurity, and higher rates of crime and suicide. This brief lays out an array of tangible costs to show that inequality is damaging not only on normative, but also social and economic grounds. The areas of analysis include public health problems, such as anxiety, obesity, and unplanned teenage pregnancies; impacts on safety and security, including homicide rates and violent conflict; and the economic effects of GPD gaps caused by gender discrimination, vertical income inequality, and ethnicity-based discrimination. It also addresses the territorial dimensions of inequality and exclusion, and presents evidence that inequality is a force driving volatile politics, social unrest, and falling levels of trust in public institutions today.
- Topic:
- Security, Inequality, Public Health, Exclusion, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
488. Boko Haram and the African Union's Attitude Towards Terrorism
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to capture the African Union’s attitude towards terrorism in a relatively lesser extent to the activities of Boko Haram. In so doing, a brief background is coined together with this introductory section. This is followed by sub-sections which shall explore the following, Boko Haram’s territorial capture, Boko Haram’s status as a terrorist group and what encompasses terrorism. Subsequently, AU’s evolving attitude towards terrorism will be traced in addition to how it has set its agenda against terrorism. The AU’s counter-terrorism activities in the context of Boko Haram will be assessed with its role in the prevention and combat of terrorism in Africa analyzed. The AU’s challenges as far as terrorism is concerned will also be highlighted with suggestions on possible alternatives as well as concluding thoughts.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Boko Haram, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
489. China’s great game in the Middle East
- Author:
- Camille Lons, Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, and Naser Al-Tamimi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- China has significantly increased its economic, political, and – to a lesser extent – security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region. China still has a limited appetite for challenging the US-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics. Yet the country’s growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect European interests. Europeans should monitor China’s growing influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to sensitive issues such as surveillance technology and arms sales. Europeans should increase their engagement with China in the Middle East, aiming to refocus its economic role on constructive initiatives.
- Topic:
- Security, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America
490. Guarding the guardians: Ukraine’s security and judicial reforms under Zelensky
- Author:
- Gustav Gressel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Despite Ukrainians’ deep unhappiness with the corruption and inefficiency of the judiciary and security bodies, the Poroshenko administration failed to reform these services. Political interference and personal enrichment have long been part of the practice of these services, overshadowing the strong work they are often capable of and holding back reformist elements. The office of the prosecutor general and the Ukrainian Security Service need particular attention, but merely passing new laws will not be enough: replacing incumbent high-level officials should be an early step. The EU, US, and NATO have worked effectively together on encouraging reform in Ukraine, but they must now ensure that these services remain high in the minds of the Zelensky administration and of Rada members.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Government, Reform, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
491. A Vision for Nuclear Security
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The goal of global nuclear security efforts should be a world in which all countries with nuclear weapons, highly enriched uranium (HEU), separated plutonium, and nuclear facilities whose sabotage could cause a major radiation release have reduced the risk of nuclear theft and sabotage to the lowest possible level. This will require policymakers, regulators, and operators to commit to a continuous process of striving for excellence in nuclear security performance.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Science and Technology, International Security, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
492. Combating Complacency about Nuclear Terrorism
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Complacency about the threat of nuclear terrorism—the belief that nuclear and radiological terrorism threats are minimal and existing security measures are sufficient to address them—is the fundamental barrier to strengthening nuclear security. Many factors can lead to complacency, but the most significant contributors are lack of knowledge about: events related to nuclear terrorism; weaknesses of nuclear security systems; and the capabilities demonstrated by thieves around the world. People will be more likely to take action to strengthen nuclear security if they believe that nuclear terrorism poses a real threat to their own country’s interests and their actions can significantly reduce the threat. There have been many incidents in recent years that demonstrate the need for strong and sustainable security at both military and civilian nuclear facilities.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Science and Technology, International Security, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
493. Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials Worldwide: Expanded Funding Needed for a More Ambitious Approach
- Author:
- Matthew Bunn, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration budget request for programs to reduce the dangers of nuclear theft and terrorism is too small to implement the ambitious approach that is needed. Congress should increase funding in this critical area; direct the administration to develop and implement a comprehensive plan for improving security for nuclear weapons and materials worldwide; and exert expanded oversight of this effort. This brief highlights the importance of ongoing nuclear security work; describes the evolving budget picture; and outlines recommendations for congressional action.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, International Security, Natural Resources, and Budget
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
494. Finding a European response to Huawei’s 5G ambitions
- Author:
- Valentin Weber
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This policy brief suggests that European countries should institute national reviewing boards overseen by intelligence agencies to vet Huawei equipment. If that is not feasible due to a lack of resources or capabilities especially among smaller countries, European governments should consider pooling resources and create a common reviewing board. This would also prevent duplication of efforts on national levels. European authorities should also demand from Huawei to clearly separate its international from its domestic business operations in order to further reduce the risk to the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of European mobile networks.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Business, 5G, and Huawei
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
495. Should I stay or should I go? Security considerations for members leaving al-Shabaab in Somalia
- Author:
- Ingvild Magnaes Gjelsvik
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Somali jihadi organization al-Shabaab, yet again featured in the news internationally when they attacked a business and hotel complex in Nairobi 15 January this year. This is not the first time the group carries out largescale attacks outside the Somali boarders. Other examples are the Garissa University College attack in 2015, the mass shooting at Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi in 2013 and the Kampala attacks in 2010. However, the majority of the atrocities committed by al-Shabaab take place in South Central Somalia. The Global Terrorism Index 2018 ranked Somalia as number 6 on its list of countries most impacted by terrorism in 2017.1 Al-Shabaab was behind the deadliest terrorist attack in 2017 worldwide, when a suicide bomber detonated an explosives-laden truck, killing 587 people in Mogadishu. Although al-Shabaab has had several military setbacks the last few years, the group still poses a significant threat to security and stability in the region. As the name al-Shabaab (‘the youth’) indicates, young people predominate in the group. This means that thousands of individuals spend parts of their youth in al- Shabaab. The question then arises: how to best assist the ones who want to leave the group?
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Violence, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
496. Why Franco-German leadership on European defense is not in sight
- Author:
- Barbara Kunz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Emmanuel Macron, already as a presidential candidate, bet heavily on Europe and the Franco-German tandem. This choice, which required a certain amount of political capital, resulted in a number of initiatives, many of them outlined in his September 2017 Sorbonne speech. It also resulted in the bilateral Aachen Treaty Macron and Angela Merkel signed in January 2019, intended to renew the 1963 Elysée Treaty. But the pomp surrounding the signing ceremony in Aachen barely hides the fact that things are not going too well in Franco-German relations. Frustration with Berlin has reached new peaks in Paris, not least due to Germany’s failure to provide an “answer” to Macron’s vision for Europe. When the Christian Democrats’ new president, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, wrote a debate article in March 2019, this was widely considered too little too late – in addition to the protocol faux pas of a party president without any government position responding to a head of state. It seems clear that Germany is not willing to embark on a great journey toward “refounding Europe” together with Macron’s France, although Paris and Berlin of course do cooperate on many issues.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Germany
497. Experience and Awareness of Climate Change in Africa
- Author:
- Edem E. Selormey, Marvis Zupork Dome, Lionel Osse, and Carolyn Logan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Climate change is “the defining development challenge of our time,” and Africa the continent most vulnerable to its consequences, according to the African Union (2015) and the United Nations (UN Environment, 2019). Farmers in Uganda waiting endlessly for rain (URN, 2019), cyclone survivors in Mozambique and Zimbabwe digging out of the mud and burying their dead (Associated Press, 2019) – these images bring home what changing climate and increasingly extreme weather conditions may mean for everyday Africans. Long-term changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns are a particular menace to Africa, where agriculture forms the economic backbone of development priorities such as food security and poverty eradication (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2018). As an issue, “climate change” per se does not register among the “most important problems” that Africans surveyed by Afrobarometer want their governments to address (see Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018). But concerns about the effects of climate change may be embedded in some of the other priorities identified, including water supply (cited by 24% of respondents), food shortages (18%), and agriculture (17%). And progress in addressing these priorities may be seriously impeded by a changing climate. African countries dominate the bottom ranks in the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) Index (2019), meaning they are the world’s countries most vulnerable to and least prepared for climate change. Despite the continent’s minuscule contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, most African countries have willingly signed on to international agreements to fight it, including the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, and the 2016 Paris Agreement on Climate Change (United Nations, 2019). The Paris Agreement mobilizes worldwide action to limit further temperature increases and to strengthen the ability of countries to deal with the impacts of climate change, including a commitment from developed countries to allocate $100 billion by 2020 for climate adaptation and mitigation needs of developing countries (Munang & Mgendi, 2017; UN Climate Change, 2018). In March 2019, policymakers and key stakeholders from all 54 African countries gathered in Accra for Africa Climate Week 2019 to lay plans to be presented at the UN Climate Action Summit in New York in September (UN Climate Change, 2019). The United Nations has summed up its pressing demand for climate action in its Sustainable Development Goal No. 13: “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts,” calling on countries to integrate climate-change measures into national policies and strategies, strengthen resilience to climate-related hazards and natural disasters, and build awareness and capacity for early warning and impact reduction (United Nations Development Programme, 2019). Many African governments have laid out their countries’ vulnerabilities in agriculture, water resources, food security, livelihoods, and other sectors and have incorporated climate-change mitigation in national plans (see, for example, Uganda’s Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, 2018, and Ministry of Water and Environment, 2015). But building climate resilience will require a committed and coordinated effort (Busby, Smith, White, & Strange, 2012), backed by significant resources and a population that understands and supports the need for prioritizing climate change. How do ordinary Africans see climate change? Does talk of urgent action align with their experiences and needs? Findings from Afrobarometer’s latest round of public-opinion surveys across Africa show a keen awareness of climate change in some countries – often backed by personal observation – but the opposite in others. Across the continent, among people who have heard of climate change, a large majority say it is making life worse and needs to be stopped. But four in 10 Africans are unfamiliar with the concept of climate change – even, in some cases, if they have personally observed detrimental changes in weather patterns. And only about three in 10 are fully “climate change literate,” combining awareness of climate change with basic knowledge about its causes and negative effects. Groups that are less familiar with climate change – and might be good targets for awareness-raising and advocacy in building a popular base for climate-change action – include people working in agriculture, rural residents, women, the poor, and the less-educated.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
498. Are Africans’ Freedoms Slipping Away?
- Author:
- Carolyn Logan and Peter Penar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Protection of individual rights and liberties has been on both the African continental agenda and the global agenda for decades, shaped especially by the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. But the reality on the ground is often a far cry from the high standards set forth in these documents. In recent months, the world has watched as the governments of Algeria and Sudan have sought to stifle popular protests, often violently. And the past couple of years have witnessed a wide range of government attacks on civil liberties and individual freedoms. Cameroon shut down Internet service for months in the country’s anglophone regions, and Zimbabwe did the same in an effort to short-circuit opposition efforts to organize protests. Governments have responded with violence to protests in countries as diverse as Burundi, Senegal, Togo, and Zambia. Uganda now taxes social media use, while Tanzania requires expensive licenses for individuals who want to blog. In countries across the continent, government surveillance, restrictive media laws, and other freedom-limiting tactics appear to be on the rise. Freedom House’s 2019 Freedom in the World report was subtitled ”Democracy in Retreat,” and the Africa section appeared under the heading “Historic openings [in Angola, Ethiopia, and the Gambia] offset by creeping restrictions elsewhere” [Freedom House, 2019). How do African citizens perceive and interpret the state of political and civil liberties in their respective countries? This report takes the measure of popular demand for and government supply of basic individual rights and freedoms as captured in Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys, carried out in 34 countries between late 2016 and late 2018. It also looks at how attitudes, experiences, and perceptions have changed over the past decade. We uncover two troubling trends. First, consistent with the alarms sounded by Freedom House and others, citizens generally recognize that civic and political space is indeed closing as governments’ supply of freedom to citizens decreases. But the results also reveal a decline in popular demand for freedom, in particular the right to associate freely. Moreover, we find considerable willingness among citizens to accept government imposition of restrictions on individual freedoms in the name of protecting public security. In a context where violent extremists are perpetrating attacks in a growing number of countries, the public may acquiesce to governments’ increasing circumscription of individual rights and collective freedoms. Fear of insecurity, instability, and/or violence may be leading citizens of at least some African countries to conclude that freedoms come with costs as well as benefits, and that there may be such a thing as too much freedom.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Violent Extremism, Oppression, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Africa
499. European Union-Western Balkans: for a revised membership negotiation framework
- Author:
- Pierre Mirel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Whilst the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 opened up European prospects for the Western Balkans, the agenda that was promoted then has hardly been completed to date. These countries have experienced worrying democratic regression in a serious demographic and economic situation which is playing into the hands of re-emerging powers. The re-engagement of the European Union with the Berlin Process and the six flagship initiatives on the part of the Commission, approved in 2018 is positive, but is now seen to be lacking. Divisions are still deep, and reconciliation is waning. Given the fragile stability of these countries, which are now being wooed by third parties, the time has come for a new approach. Economic and political re-engagement, including the launch of membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, but based on a new framework, is vital for the very security of Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, European Union, Regional Integration, Negotiation, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
500. Cooperative Ideas for New Communication & Conference Processes in the Middle East/Gulf
- Author:
- Marc Finaud and Bernd W. Kubbig
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In our new Track II initiative we will present, discuss, and disseminate Cooperative Ideas jointly developed at two International Expert Conferences in Frankfurt and Berlin (see issue No. 1 of this New Publication Series at academicpeaceorchestra.com). The aim is to help establish promising focal points around which especially the relevant regional actors in the disarmament & non-proliferation area can rally. They may ultimately lead to constructive and sustainable dialogue mechanisms which are so rare – and so needed – in the Middle East/Gulf. The Two Expert Panels in Vienna are our starting point with a Third Panel envisaged for the Second NPT PrepCom in Geneva as a follow-up event. They are presented in this POLICY FORUM No. 2.
- Topic:
- Security, Communications, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations