Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: Security

1501. Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States: The Weekend's Events in Ras Al-Khaimah

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving supporters of the deposed son, Shaykh Khalid, forced members of the emiri guard to retreat behind the high walls of the ruler's palace. A semblance of order was restored only after Abu Dhabi, the lead emirate of the UAE, sent armored vehicles to Ras al-Khaimah. Shaykh Khalid still contests the change, but troops have prevented supporters from reaching his palace. Although he is an outspoken critic of the United States, his removal flies in the face of certain U.S. policy objectives.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1502. How Much Don't We Know? Government-Imposed Constraints on Middle East Media Coverage

Author:: Doug Jehl and Khaled Abu Toameh
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 2, 2003, Doug Jehl and Khaled Abu Toameh addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Jehl, currently with the New York Times' Washington bureau, served as the Times' Cairo bureau chief from 1995 to 2000 and, prior to that, as a White House correspondent for the paper. Mr. Abu Toameh is the West Bank and Gaza correspondent of the Jerusalem Post; previously, he served as a special correspondent for U.S. News and World Report, a senior writer for the Jerusalem Report, and a correspondent for Al Fajr. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: New York, Washington, Middle East, Gaza, and Arab Countries

1503. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran's Nuclear Program -- Countdown?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and David Albright
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 4, 2003, David Albright and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Albright is president of the Institute for Science and International Security and has also served as an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) weapons inspector in Iraq. Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military and security affairs. His publications include Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions (The Washington Institute, 1996) and "Living with a Nuclear Iran?" (Survival, Autumn 1999).
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

1504. Iran: Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by 196 prominent clerics and intellectuals. Are these signs that the Islamic Republic is in trouble?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

1505. Patterns of Sunni Resistance in Iraq

Author:: Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Almost from the beginning of the occupation of Iraq, coalition forces have faced "resistance" -- armed action against coalition forces, equipment, or facilities. Resistance is to be distinguished from violence by Iraqis against other Iraqis and from "opposition" -- that is, anticoalition statements, demonstrations, or the organization of political activity -- which appears to be more characteristic of the Shi'i.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1506. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

1507. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Iran -- Crosswinds?

Author:: William A. Samii and Nasser Hadian
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 21, 2003, A. William Samii and Nasser Hadian addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Samii is an analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, where he prepares the Iran Report. Dr. Hadian is a professor of political science at Tehran University and a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute of Columbia University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Colombia, and Arabia

1508. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part III: How Might Iran Retaliate?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series. Part I, by Michael Eisenstadt, examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part II, by Michael Knights, examined the operational challenges of preemptive action.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

1509. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part II: Operational Challenges

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the second in a three-part series. Part I (PolicyWatch No. 760, "The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action," by Michael Eisenstadt) examined the political and military challenges of preventing an Iranian nuclear breakout; Part III, by Jeffrey White, will examine potential Iranian responses to preemption.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1510. Iranian Nuclear Weapons, Part I: The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a three-part series. Future PolicyWatches by Michael Knights and Jeffrey White will examine the operational challenges of prevention, and potential Iranian responses.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1511. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Saudi Counterterrorism Cooperation: In the Wake of the Riyadh Bombing

Author:: Simon Henderson and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The recent bombings in Riyadh and Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's remarks condemning them have raised expectations that U.S.-Saudi counterterrorism cooperation will improve so that such tragedies can be averted in the future. What internal dynamic will guide the Saudis' handling of this crisis? What sort of counterterrorism cooperation are they likely to provide in the aftermath of the bombings?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1512. The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either indigenous political actors or Iranian state-sponsored media networks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1513. Polling in Iran: Surprising Questions

Author:: Nazgol Ashouri
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very interesting polls are in fact conducted in Iran.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

1514. Special Policy Forum Report: An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:: Hazem Saghie
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 8, 2003, Hazem Saghie addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Saghie has been the editor of the weekly supplement of the London-based daily al-Hayat for the past fifteen years and served fourteen years in Beirut for the Lebanon daily al-Safir. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute and editor of The Predicament of the Individual in the Middle East (Saqi Books, 2000). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, London, Lebanon, Beirut, and Czech Republic

1515. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

1516. Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources are better than al-Manar, Hizballah's Lebanese television station. The channel broadcasts messages calling for death to America and suicide bombings against American forces in Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut

1517. Patterns of Terrorism 2002: Terror, Counterterror, and State Sponsorship

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today, the State Department releases the 2002 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, its congressionally mandated annual accounting of international terrorism. The report chronicles a year marked by both devastating terrorist attacks and remarkable progress targeting al-Qaeda in the war on terror. However, against the backdrop of the increasingly successful international campaign to prevent such attacks by targeting terrorist groups, what stands out is the lack of a similar effort in 2002 to target state sponsors -- a problem that continues today.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1518. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

1519. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1520. U.S. Policy and Iraqi Oil: The Challenges Ahead

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- the oil producers' cartel of which Iraq is a founding member -- meets in Vienna to discuss production cuts intended to maintain the current, relatively high price of oil. The United States is not expected to send a representative for Iraq, although one or more among the plethora of political groups in the liberated country may send a would-be representative, unlikely to be seated. While ignoring the meeting, Washington still needs to make clear how it will reconstruct the Iraqi oil industry and utilize the nation's huge oil reserves, second in size only to those of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Vienna

1521. Winning the Peace in the Middle East: A Bipartisan Blueprint for Postwar U.S. Policy

Author:: William Perry, Newt Gingrich, R. James Woolsey, Lawrence Eagleburger, Alexander Haig, Robert Kerrey, and Fred Thompson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush declared that Iraq would be disarmed -- peacefully if possible, through force if necessary. While resort to arms was surely not the preferred option, Saddam Husayn's determination to preserve his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ensured that the United States and its allies would be left with no choice but to act militarily. The path to war has not been precipitous. If the United States is now to avoid the age-old fear of winning the war but losing the peace, the administration's postwar priorities must reflect an understanding of the challenges it faces and the choices it must make.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1522. The Future Shape of Military Operations in Support of Postwar Stabilization in Iraq

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although military operations have passed the "tipping point" in Iraq, U.S. Central Command spokesmen continue to stress that their primary focus remains the completion of high-intensity operations against remaining pockets of resistance. Moreover, in contrast to previous statements that advocated allowing looting to burn itself out, recent statements suggest that the coalition will quickly reconstitute the Iraqi police force, actively preventing looting and imposing curfews on its own in the meantime. These are positive steps because accomplishing the mission -- that is, neutralizing or apprehending leadership elements, uncovering weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and facilitating the humanitarian and economic recovery of Iraq -- depends on closer engagement with the civilian population and robust policing activity. The coalition cannot afford to choose between fighting the high-intensity war or engaging in low-intensity civil affairs; both endeavors must be undertaken simultaneously, which will be a strain on both the limited numbers of coalition forces and relations with Iraqi civilians.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1523. Foreign Irregulars in Iraq: The Next Jihad?

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In light of the recent dramatic events in Baghdad, U.S. policymakers are eyeing the next phase of the war. U.S. forces will almost certainly encounter increased guerrilla fighting. Saddam Husayn's vice president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, recently stated that more than 6,000 Arab volunteer fighters are now in Iraq. With increasing numbers of such volunteers vowing to fight, could Iraq become the epicenter for the next global jihad?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

1524. Special Policy Forum Report: Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam

Author:: Graham E. Fuller and Daniel Pipes
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 3, 2003, Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and an adjunct scholar of the Institute. His most recent book is Militant Islam Reaches America (W.W. Norton, 2002). Mr. Fuller is former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency and senior political scientist at RAND. His latest book is The Future of Political Islam (Palgrave, 2003). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

1525. Special Policy Forum Report: A Terrorist Front in Iraq?

Author:: Matthew Levitt, Avi Jorisch, and Roger Cressey
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 4, 2003, Matthew Levitt, Roger Cressey, and Avi Jorisch addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Levitt is the Institute's senior fellow in terrorism studies and author of its 2002 monograph Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11. Mr. Cressey is president of Good Harbor Consulting and former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council. Mr. Jorisch is a Soref fellow at the Institute, where he is writing a monograph on Hizballah and its television station, al-Manar. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1526. The End of Saddam's Regime

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "Bloody thou art, bloody will be thy end" -- like Shakespeare's quintessential villain Richard III, Saddam Husayn is being toppled by a combination of forces he called into existence through his own evil actions. Unlike Richard, Saddam's final act will lack heroic qualities. Clearly, the regime's disintegration is accelerating; all that is left is for the final act to be played out.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

1527. Special Policy Forum Report: A View from Tehran: War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Midle East

Author:: Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions has led to a conservative backlash. A coalition of hardliners has been successfully implementing a strategy for retaining power, namely, fostering popular apathy by controlling public discourse, imprisoning reformers, and negating the deliberations of elected institutions. This strategy reached its apex during local and council elections in February in which only 30 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia

1528. Special Policy Forum Report: Arabs View the War -- Images, Attitudes, and Opinions

Author:: Hafez al-Mirazi, Jonathan Schanzer, and Mouafac Harb
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: War remains a horrifying event and al-Jazeera will cover it realistically. Images carried by the network are graphic, but do not discriminate in showing American and Iraqi casualties. Similarly, al-Jazeera has covered both the unprecedented airpower brought to bear by the allied forces and the Iraqi government's own version of "shock and awe" in airing videotapes of American prisoners of war; failure to do so would challenge the station's credibility.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia

1529. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

1530. Ansar Al-Islam: Postmortem or Prelude to More Attacks?

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate in northern Iraq, was rocked by U.S. missile and air strikes over the weekend, concluding an eight-day campaign against the organization. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) stated that, with help from more than 100 U.S. Special Forces operatives, they have "completely overrun" Ansar's stronghold. The PUK reportedly killed twenty-four Ansar fighters on Monday alone. Yet, the group may not have been defeated completely. Although its enclave was literally flattened, Ansar al-Islam is threatening new attacks, and will likely live to fight another day.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

1531. Fighting the War to Win the Peace in a Post-Saddam Iraq

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the coalition prepares for the decisive phase of the war against Saddam Husayn's regime, it is crucial that combat operations set the conditions for achieving U.S. war aims and -- just as important -- winning the peace afterward. The principal war aims are: 1) eliminating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD); 2) achieving regime change; and 3) setting the conditions for the emergence of a stable, broad-based post-Saddam government. Moreover, prospects for winning the peace will be greatly enhanced if the coalition moves quickly to improve postwar living conditions for the largest possible number of Iraqis; to establish a modicum of stability in the country; and to create conditions wherein coalition forces are viewed not as occupiers, but as partners for building a new Iraq. How should the coalition fight the war in order to achieve these objectives?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1532. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

1533. Basing Restrictions Shape Concept and Conduct of War

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Saudi Arabian, Turkish, and Jordanian host-nation restrictions limiting coalition ground and air operations, the United States has begun to develop a range of Iraqi airfields as forward operating bases for combat aircraft. This is ironic considering that successive U.S. governments spent billions of dollars to develop an unparalleled basing environment to support U.S. power projection in the Gulf. Recent decisions by Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- key U.S. allies -- have arguably prevented Washington from waging a shorter and less costly war in terms of both blood and treasure. Yet, the United States has benefited greatly from its policy of diversifying basing assets in the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, recognizing that Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman are dependable allies and that Iraq may one day replace Saudi Arabia as a key airbase provider.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1534. War in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Saddam Husayn's regime is under relentless attack, and its days are numbered. Exactly when or how the end will come is unclear but not in doubt. After a week of major combat, it is reasonable to assess the progress of this war: accomplishments by both sides, surprising -- and not so surprising -- elements, emerging patterns or trends, and battlefield implications.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1535. Turkmens, The Soft Underbelly of the War in Northern Iraq

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the northern front in Iraq being officially launched today, coalition forces may soon move toward the city of Kirkuk, which they began bombing on March 21. Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds as the prospective capital of a Kurdish region in postwar Iraq, is the bastion of the Turkmens, a Turkish-speaking community that shares close historical, social, and cultural ties with the Anatolian Turks in neighboring Turkey. Their fortunes will be closely scrutinized in Turkey during and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. If Turks feel that the Turkmen community is being discriminated against or threatened, they could force Ankara to take action, perhaps undermining what remains of U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1536. Special Policy Forum Report: Whither U.S.-Turkish Relations? A Turkish Perspective

Author:: Ilter Turkmen and Emre Gonensay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 17, 2003, Ambassador Ilter Turkmen and Emre Gonensay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Turkmen has served as the Turkish minister of foreign affairs (1980-1983), as the undersecretary-general of the United Nations, and as the commissioner-general of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Professor Gonensay served as the Turkish minister of foreign affairs in 1996.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1537. Iraqi Strategy and the Battle for Baghdad

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past two days, U.S. forces have battled elements of the four Republican Guard (RG) divisions that form the outer ring of Baghdad's defenses, initiating what may be the decisive phase of the coalition's invasion of Iraq. The possibility of urban combat in Baghdad is a daunting one, entailing risks not only for coalition forces, but for the Iraqi regime as well. Although the battle for Baghdad is likely to be the decisive phase of the current campaign, it is unlikely to be the final stage of this conflict. Rather, it will mark the transition to a new phase of what is likely to become a protracted struggle, one that could last as long as U.S. troops remain in Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1538. Starting Over: U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Post-Iraq War Era

Author:: Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As demonstrated by President George W. Bush's request to Congress yesterday to provide Turkey with $1 billion in aid -- money that can be leveraged into $8 billion in loan guarantees -- Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the Iraq war is a watershed in U.S.-Turkish relations, and the partnership will inevitably involve a new agenda based on postwar realities.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1539. Iraq Fights Its War 'Outside-In'

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iraqi forces have been countering the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom with a form of "outside-in" strategy, defending their country from the periphery to the center. Although the coalition is winning every significant engagement and has penetrated to the heart of the country, Saddam Husayn's regime is not giving ground easily, and the costs of bringing it down will rise. The regime is demonstrating once again that it is a dynamic opponent, capable of understanding what it faces and coming up with surprises.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1540. The Long View of No-Fly and No-Augmentation Zones

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Coalition ground forces entered Iraq on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom, in contrast to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when the ground assault followed forty-three days of air strikes involving an average of 2,500 sorties per day. This difference was due in large part to the fact that much of the work of preparing the battlefield had been completed well before the current operation began. Specifically, coalition air forces have long engaged in large-scale activities in Iraq's no-fly and no-augmentation zones, flying as many as 1,000 sorties per day -- substantially more than the 700 sorties flown during the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1541. The 'Arab Street' and the War: Are Regimes in Control?

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An apparently spontaneous protest stopped traffic in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday. Protesting the allied attack on Iraq, some of the participants turned violent, overturning police blockades. In Damascus, riot police fired tear gas on hundreds of protesters who threw rocks and tried to rush the U.S. embassy. Several smaller demonstrations were also reported in Lebanon, Jordan, and the Gaza Strip. Today, more protests occurred in Cairo, Jerusalem, Beirut, Damascus, Amman, and Manama. In Yemen, a shootout was reported between police and antiwar protesters marching on the U.S. embassy in Sanaa. These incidents support the idea of a dangerous "Arab street," reflecting a disaffected Arab public incensed at U.S. policy. What is the impact of Arab antiwar opinion on regional stability?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1542. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S. Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt, Judith Yaphe, and Eric Mathewson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: It is day one of the Iraqi war. The Iraqi nation is in chaos. In the mosques, fatwas (religious decrees) are issued against the invading Westerners. The Kurds revolt. At home, antiwar protesters are demonstrating in the streets: is the objective of this war regional stability, political change, or oil?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1543. The Complexities of a Military Coup Against Saddam

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: There has been much speculation that under certain circumstances -- either just before a war or in the early stages of a coalition operation -- some elements of the Iraqi military would move against Saddam Husayn and his regime. A coup against Saddam would in fact be a highly complex event with uncertain benefits for the coalition. Whether or not such an action were to begin before or after the onset of war, specific requirements would have to be met and serious obstacles overcome in order to achieve a successful end result. The history of failed coups against Saddam suggests just how uncertain the prospects would be for such a result.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1544. The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report -- titled "Iraq, the Middle East, and Change: No Dominoes" -- as "pouring scorn" on Bush administration policy. In fact, the INR report meshes with administration policy, which is to seek political liberalization of existing regimes first, avoiding the radicalism of "overnight democracy" schemes.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

1545. Infrastructure Targeting and Postwar Iraq

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Using new operational concepts in concert with rapidly maturing strike technologies, the U.S. military will attempt to seamlessly dovetail the destructive process of warfare with the reconstructive effort of nation building in any future air operations against Iraq. Lessons learned from air campaigns conducted in Iraq during the 1990s have laid the foundation for a more finessed approach to infrastructure targeting.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1546. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

1547. Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: Insights from a Captured Document

Author:: Norman Cigar
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense and bears the approving signature of then-chief of staff Lt. Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji. As such, it represents official Iraqi thinking on the topic, providing the most detailed description of how Baghdad might use nuclear weapons if it were to acquire them. The existence of the manual indicates that the Iraqi military was thinking ahead to a time when Iraq would have nuclear weapons, and that it was preparing to integrate such weapons into its arsenal and its overall military doctrine
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1548. Special Policy Forum Report: Fighting With or Without Turkey? Lessons and Implications

Author:: Gordon Rudd and Gerald Thompson
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: It is unclear clear whether the Turkish parliament will re-vote or approve the deployment of U.S. troops in Turkey in preparation for an attack on Iraq. Turkish military cooperation -- or its absence -- may either facilitate or, respectively, complicate an American military operation. Even if the Turkish parliament were to approve the move, potential fault lines could challenge a Turkish-American partnership in the event of war. In this environment, Operations Provide Comfort (OPC) I and II of the early 1990s -- when Turkey, the United States, and other NATO allies collaborated closely in northern Iraq to establish a safe haven for Kurds -- may prove instructive.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

1549. Iran's Municipal Elections: A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter turnout and mass alienation from the political process, the conservatives swept elections in nearly all major Iranian cities. Indeed, the elections marked the lowest turnout in twenty-four years and the first time that the reform movement has been defeated at the polls since its emergence in the mid-1990s. Beyond the issue of largely symbolic local councils, the elections reflect the changing dynamics of Iran's political landscape.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1550. What Kind of Defense Might Iraq Mount?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: If the United States and the "coalition of the willing" go to war, the result will be a comprehensive defeat of the Iraqi regime and its military and security forces. What is not so clear is how smoothly the military campaign will proceed. Many commentators seem to assume that any serious problems would emerge only after the war was over. Yet, could the Iraqis mount enough defense to cause problems during the war itself? How might they defend themselves, and why might they have some success?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1551. Special Policy Forum Report: The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq

Author:: Yitzhak Nakash
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The prospect of American military action in Iraq has raised concerns that dismantling the Ba'ath regime will weaken the state and spur the defection of its Shi'i majority under the influence of Iran. Yet, much of the pessimism surrounding this assessment obscures the historical role that the Shi'i community has played in supporting the Iraqi state, not to mention the vital interest it has in preserving the country's territorial integrity. If war in Iraq leads to a more representative government that is willing to address Shi'i political aspirations, the likely result would be stability and the establishment of a more moderate religious leadership quite different from that seen in Iran.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1552. The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants: The Iranian Connection

Author:: Ely Karmon
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

1553. An Accident on the Road to U.S.-Turkish Cooperation in Iraq: Implications for Turkey

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to authorize the motion, however, blocking the creation of a northern front in the looming war. Of the 533 deputies in session, 264 voted for the motion, 250 voted against it, and 19 abstained, bringing the motion only three votes shy of the majority required by the constitution. AKP assurances that only 30 to 40 of its delegates would object to the motion crashed to a halt over the course of the session, with 99 of the party's deputies voting nay. Although the democratic will of the Turkish parliament should be respected, the fact remains that the AKP government failed to pass its agenda through the legislature. Some analysts argue that this spells trouble for both Turkey and AKP, with others speculating that U.S.-Turkish relations are now at a historical threshold.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

1554. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey's Stakes in Iraq

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue about Ankara's stance toward potential U.S. military action. Why has Turkey been hesitant to support Washington's plans, and how might such vacillation affect the U.S.-Turkish strategic alliance in the future?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

1555. Complicity in Iraq: How Deep?

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam Husayn's regime. According to the Washington Post, the United States intends to conduct a "de-Baathification" program in Iraq similar in some ways to the "de-Nazification" program conducted in Germany in the wake of World War II. Although the details of this program are still to be worked out, the Post indicated that complicity in "human rights and weapons abuses" would be key criteria in determining which Iraqi officials would be permitted to keep their jobs.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany

1556. Lebanese Military Deployment to the South: Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the reverberations to follow.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

1557. Iraq's Al-Samoud: A Missile with Great Possibilities

Author:: Richard Speier
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of attaining a range 22 percent greater than that allowed under UN restrictions is a "prima facie" case for their proscription. Yet, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has said, "There is no serious violation," and it is unclear whether Baghdad would obey a destruction order. Understanding the significance of the al-Samoud requires a closer look at the missile's developmental history, technical capabilities, and strategic purpose.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

1558. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?

Author:: Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

1559. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo

Author:: Osama el-Baz
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo

1560. Placing Iraq and Zarqawi in the Terror Web

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 6 address to the United Nations Security Council, some questioned his description of the "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network." In fact, the relationship between Baghdad and terrorism mirrors the way in which today's international terrorist groups function: not as tightly structured hierarchies, but rather as shadowy networks that, when necessary, strike ad hoc tactical alliances bridging religious and ideological schisms. Osama bin Laden's recent call on Muslims to come to Iraq's defense, even as he derided the "infidel" regime in Baghdad, is a case in point.
Topic:: Security, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

1561. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:: Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

1562. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English

Author:: Merissa Khurma
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

1563. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

1564. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options

Author:: Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

1565. Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States: Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics

Author:: Shafeeq Ghabra
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and dangers for the region.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

1566. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

1567. Reforming the Arab Stand: A Saudi Initiative on Iraq and the Wider Arab World

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, the Saudi government published what it described as a "Charter to Reform the Arab Stand," a document intended for endorsement at the next summit of Arab leaders, due to be held in Bahrain in March. Addressed to Arab kings and presidents, the charter calls for more internal reforms and "categorically reject[s] any illegal external aggression against any Arab state."
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

1568. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict

Author:: Max Abrahms
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

1569. Special Policy Forum Report: The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East -- A Preview of 2003

Author:: Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, E.J. Dionne, and Fred Barnes
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new ones to achieve these goals. Such decisions will affect the degree and nature of Iraq's transformation, and the new regime's composition could be significantly different if the United States were to depend on a reformed Iraqi military to promote stability. Moreover, Iraqi transformation corresponds directly to a region-wide transformation, because increased efforts to transform Iraq with a broad-based, representative government will send signals of political reform to Iraq's neighbors. U.S. policy must stand ready to assist other Middle Eastern regimes in their transition to more responsible governments that offer their people hope and the prospect for change.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

1570. Special Policy Forum Report: Hizballah Fundraising in the American Heartland

Author:: Kenneth Bell
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In 1996, an off-duty police officer working as a security guard at a cigarette wholesaler in North Carolina noticed young men entering the building with grocery bags full of cash. The men would queue up in the cashier's line with 299 cartons of cigarettes each, while one of them stood at the register and paid cash as the others came through. Next, they would load the cigarettes into minivans and head toward Michigan. At the time, it was against the law to transport more than 300 cartons of cigarettes into another state unless they were marked with the tax stamp of that state. Yet, the smugglers in question took advantage of the fact that neither North Carolina nor Michigan stamped cigarettes to show tax paid. Given the large disparity between North Carolina's cigarette tax (50 cents per carton) and Michigan's ($7.50 per carton), each minivan load had the potential to generate $13,000 worth of profit; indeed, at the height of the operation, three to four minivans were running to Michigan each week.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Arabia, and North Carolina

1571. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

1572. Banning in Hizballah Activity in Canada

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 11, 2002, the Canadian government banned Hizballah, labeling it a terrorist organization. Strangely, some in Canada are having second thoughts about this measure, likely under the assumption that Hizballah is not a terrorist group but a social and political organization engaged in armed struggle against Israel. Yet, evidence of Hizballah's international activity as a terrorist group of global reach is overwhelming.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Arabia

1573. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

1574. Chechnya Weekly: New Questions Arise Over Hostage Rescue Mission

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Did the U.S. and Russian governments both know that, when Russian commandos stormed Moscow's Dubrovka theater in October of 2002, the Chechen terrorists inside it had already agreed to release several of their hostages, including U.S. citizen Sandy Booker? Booker's fiance, Svetlana Gubareva, says that the answer is Yes. Booker and Gubareva's 13-year-old daughter, Sasha, both died in the tragedy; Gubareva was also taken hostage but survived.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

1575. Chechnya Weekly: What do Kremlin Changes Mean For Chechnya?

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The recent upheavals in the Kremlin, including the resignation of Aleksandr Voloshin as President Vladimir Putinís chief of staff, could portend major changes in the Kremlinís policies on Chechnya. Voloshin was known as a key architect of those policies and especially as a political ally of Akhmad Kadyrov, whose inauguration he attended in person last month. Conversely, the so-called ìsilovikiîó—the hard-liners of the military and secret police establishment, widely seen as the winners in the latest Kremlin faction fightó—have often been hostile to Kadyrov, whom they see as unreliable.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1576. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Security Sweep Victims Still Alive?

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Many of the Chechens who have disappeared in “zachistki” security sweeps are still alive in Russian captivity, in the view of human rights activist Kheda Saratova. The head of the Vozvrashchenie (“Return”) foundation told correspondent Aleksandr Kolesnichenko of Novye izvestia that the organization has assembled more than a thousand individual case files. Vozvrashchenie was created only a month ago in Grozny, for the purpose of finding as many of the kidnapped as possible.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1577. Chechnya Weekly: Election Resolves Few Tensions in Chechnya

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The purging from Chechnya's government structures of sup porters of the main opposition candidates in the recent election has apparently intensified since October 5. Marina Perevozkina of Moskovsky komsomolets reported in an October 21 article on her conversation with Salavat Gebertaev. He is the mayor of Urus-Martan, which lies southwest of Grozny, and was one of the leaders of the movement for the Urus-Martan district to secede from Dudaev's jurisdiction in 1994. Dudaev's army stormed his town four times. When Maskhadov came to power, Gebertaev was sentenced to death and for some time hid abroad; after returning he survived an assassination attempt that he believes was organized by Maskhadov's circle. “It would seem,” suggested Perevozkina, “that Moscow should be relying on precisely such people in Chechnya. But Gebertaev is a relative and friend of Malik Saidullaev [who tried to run for president against Kadyrov]. On top of that, he committed a terrible crime: He received from Saidullaev and distributed some 500 wheelchairs and 2,000 crutches. Because of this the head of the district administration told him on the day after the election: “From now on we will not work with you.”
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

1578. Chechnya Weekly: Military Voting Yields Unexpected Result

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Among the few surprises to come from Chechnya's election day on October 5, so far the most interesting is the revelation that the Russian troops who took part voted overwhelmingly against Akhmad Kadyrov. A respected Moscow journalist, recently returned from Grozny, told Chechnya Weekly on October 14 that some 90 percent of the Russian troops who cast ballots chose the option (not available in American elections) of voting “against all” of the candidates. The journalist said that the servicemen must have done this under the direction of their commanders, which provides further confirmation of the deep alienation between Kadyrov and the Russian military.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

1579. Chechnya Weekly: On the Eve of Elections in Chechnya

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell and Zaindi Choltaev
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: We left Sunzhensky district early in the morning, heading for Grozny from the west of Chechnya. After the turn to Assinovskaya, still not far from the Ingush border, we came upon engineering reconnaissance troops: Several tanks and military trucks, soldiers walking along the sides of the road. Civilian cars started to pile up behind us. Suddenly the soldiers stopped, squatted down, and aimed their machine guns and rifles at a spot in the field. So did the large caliber gun on the armed troop carrier. We heard an explosion. When the dust settled, our driver commented: “Those are just games. They put the explosives there themselves, and then they set them off.” I frequently heard similar talk. Many people in Chechnya have observed how the soldiers, in order to receive money and decorations, plant explosives and set up fake “battle situations.”
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Elections
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Chechnya

1580. Chechnya Weekly: Shattering the al Qaeda–Chechen Myth

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell and Brian Glyn Williams
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In 1999, U.S. presidential candidate George Bush spoke for much of the American right when he warned the Russians that they “need to resolve the dispute (with the Chechens) peaceably and not be bombing women and children and causing huge num bers of refugees to flee Chechnya.”[1] If the Russians did not stop their brutal second war against the Chechens, which had begun in the fall of 1999, Bush threatened to cut off IMF and Export-Import Bank loans to the former superpower that the Republican right, led by Senator Jesse Helms, still saw as a dangerous manifestation of the USSR.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Asia, and Chechnya

1581. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Leveling Accusations at US Officials?

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In a remarkably under reported statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently accused lower echelon U.S. government officials of meeting with known Chechen terrorists. On September 20, a few days before flying to the United States for his summit meeting with President George W. Bush, Putin met with several U.S. television journalists. Asked about Chechnya, the Russian president gave a long answer that mostly repeated points that he and his spokesmen have made before. But toward the end of his response he said the following (as translated by Chechnya Weekly from the text placed on the official website Kremlin.ru): “The United States has now voted in the Security Council in favor of recognizing several individuals as international terrorists. The State Department has announced that it has included several figures in its list of international terrorists. But unfortunately we know that on the executive level there are continuing attempts at contacts with some people under the pretense that what's happening is only work with the opposition. Even with people who are included on the United Nations list. These people come, say that they are 'political activists' and present them- selves in all sorts of guises. But I assure you, I know about this precisely—they are maintaining connections with their allies in Afghanistan, including those who have gone there from the Northern Caucasus of Russia and who are fighting with arms in their hands against American soldiers. Such absurdities on the working level must be stopped, the sooner the better.”
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and North Caucasus

1582. Chechnya Weekly: No Evidence of Chechens in Afghanistan

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Have Chechen separatist guerrillas been fighting against the United States and its allies in places such as Iraq or Afghanistan—and if so, how many have been captured or killed? The U.S. government has been strikingly passive in seeking to learn (or, at least, in publicly disclosing) the answer to that question. Chechnya Weekly began pressing for a precise, concrete answer months ago, but we have yet to get one from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1583. Chechnya Weekly: Candidate Drops Out of Presidential Race

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In a surprising announcement, Khusein Dzhabrailov has with drawn his candidacy for the presidency of Chechnya. The Moscow businessman, who had managed to win such potent endorsements as those of Bislan Gantemirov and Ruslan Khasbulatov, failed to give any substantive explanation for his decision. As reported on September 2 by the Lenta.ru website, his office merely announced that he had “come to the conclusion that he can provide significantly greater service to society in his present role.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

1584. Chechnya Weekly: Crisis For Refugees in Ingushetia

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Pressure against Chechen refugees in Ingushetia has intensified further in recent days, Aleksandr Podrabinek of the newspaper Russky kurier reported on August 18. Hooligans are throwing rocks at the tents during the night, he wrote, and the tents are also being besieged at night by cars that honk their horns so that the refugees cannot sleep. The Kadyrov administration's prime minister, Anatoly Popov, who is now serving formally as “acting president” while Kadyrov pursues his own candidacy, told the news agency Interfax on August 13 that all of the tent camps for Chechen refugees in Ingushetia must be closed by October 1. That is just four days before the election.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Ingushetia

1585. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Surround Mosdok Bombing

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Are the Russian authorities lying about the number of casualties caused by the August 1 bombing of the military hospital in Mozdok? According to the official figures, widely disseminated in the Russian and western media, fifty occupants of the hospital complex died and eighty-two were wounded. But the Moscow daily Kommersant has received conflicting versions regarding those figures from a source connected to the criminal-investigative team on the scene. According to this source, the hospital was filled to more than its planned capacity of 150 patients. Also, several tents had been deployed on its grounds, each containing an additional eight to sixteen people. The truck bomb that destroyed the hospital was so powerful that only one wall of the building was left standing and nearby buildings were also damaged.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

1586. Chechnya Weekly: Maskhadov Representative Visits Washington

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: About 20 percent of the Kadyrov administration's gunmen are secretly loyal to the secessionist government of President Aslan Maskhadov, a key Maskhadov representative claimed during a visit to Washington last week. Salambek Maigov, Maskhadov's emissary in Moscow, told Chechnya Weekly that former rebel guerrillas constitute the majority of Kadyrov's ostensibly “pro-Moscow” militia. Many of those not now in contact with the rebels, he insisted, “would fight for us if we were to attack Grozny again,” as in 1996.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Washington, Asia, Chechnya, and Moscow

1587. Chechnya Weekly: Putin Amnesty Proposal Raises Host of Questions . . .

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin's amnesty proposal, which last week received preliminary approval from the federal Duma, is intended in large part to serve the same purpose as his March constitutional referendum. That is to create the impression that peace, reconciliation and the rule of law are returning to Chechnya, with the support of all but a few separatist fanatics. But compared to the referendum, the amnesty has a key disadvantage: Most (though not all) of the key issues involve the proposed legislation's formal text, not the largely hidden process by which that text will be put into practice. Ever since the president formally presented his proposal to the Russian parliament on May 12, skeptics have subjected it to withering criticism—most of the specific points of which Putin and his circle have not even seriously tried to address.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1588. Chechnya Weekly: Terror Attacks Suggest Disturbing Trend

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In some few respects—indeed, fewer even than a year ago— Shamil Basaev remains a traditional Chechen rebel rather than a postmodern global terrorist. For one, he takes full, public and personal responsibility for his atrocities. That fact alone casts doubt on the Kremlin's attempts to create the impression that the Chechen separatist movement (of which Basaev in any case represents only a part) is simply an arm of al Qaeda. Another difference is that Basaev has not followed al Qaeda's recent switch to soft targets. A pair of mid-May attacks, which Basaev publicly claimed as his own on May 19, were directed against two of the most heavily defended entities in hyper-militarized Chechnya—a key regional headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB) secret police, and the person of the head of the republic's Moscow- appointed administration.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

1589. Chechnya Weekly: Questions Continue to Swirl About Mysterious Hostage-Taker . . .

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Anna Politkovskaya has indicated to a friendly human rights journalist that her newspaper has additional information about the involvement of Russia's secret services in the terrorist raid on Moscow's Dubrovka theater last October—enough information to confirm that involvement even apart from her dramatic interview with an apparent double agent. “The next chunk of information on this topic will be published later,” she said, “depending on what actions our authorities take.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Moscow

1590. Chechnya Weekly: Mysterious Figure Implicated in Russian Theater Tragedy

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Was last October's attack by Chechen terrorists on a Moscow theater actually a provocation organized by elements of the Russian security services—or at least known to them in advance, so that they could easily have prevented it? In the opinion of Novaya gazeta correspondent Anna Politkovskaya, the answer is yes, and the key figure in this shadowy operation was a Chechen serving as an agent for Russia's special services—one Khanpash Terkibaev. This mysterious figure unaccountably agreed to let Politkovskaya interview him. And although he has since denied the most sensational parts of her April 28 account of their conversation, he and the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin have failed to provide any convincing alternative explanation.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1591. Chechnya Weekly: Surprise Vote Against Russia's Chechnya Policy

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: An overconfident and overbearing Russian delegation lost the first major international test of Moscow's Chechnya policy to occur since the March 23 constitutional referendum. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) voted unexpectedly on April 2 to recommend creation of an international tribunal to try both Russians and Chechens accused of war crimes. The lopsided vote (97-27) stood in dramatic contrast to the victory celebrated by the Russians in January, when they succeeded in blocking a challenge to the referendum led by the Parliamentary Assembly's own rapporteur on Chechnya. Their action, in effect, forced his resignation (see Chechnya Weekly, February 6).
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1592. Chechnya Weekly: More on Constitutional Referendum

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Add one more to the list of independent eyewitnesses who flatly deny Russian claims of a huge turnout for Chechnya's March 23 constitutional referendum. Nathalie Nougayrede of Le Monde told Radio Radicale on March 25 that she saw no long lines at polling stations in Grozny, where she spent referendum day. She said that Grozny was “practically deserted” that day: “At one or two polling stations I saw a few people, maybe four or five. Twenty or twenty-five during the whole day....Everyone I spoke to in the days leading up to the referendum said they had no intention of voting.” She added that at one particular polling station she knew that only several dozen people turned out, but “at the end of the day the chief electoral officer declared that around 3,000 people had voted there.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1593. Chechnya Weekly: Secret Police Caught Red–Handed

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Moscow journalist Anna Politkovskaya has made a stunning discovery in the suburbs of Chechnya, one comparable to the 1999 scandal in which secret police of Russia's Federal Security Service (the FSB, which is the renamed. but not reformed. KGB) were caught planting explosives in a Ryazan apartment building. As she wrote in the March 24 issue of Novaya gazeta, “during the entire war in Chechnya rumors have circulated about how the federals are planting mines and organizing provocations which they then attribute to the guerrillas. But only now has it become possible to confirm these rumors with documentary evidence.”
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Moscow

1594. Chechnya Weekly: Last Minute Referendum Maneuvers and Forecasts

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin and its allies in Grozny are clearly counting on a big win in Saturday's (March 22) referendum. Putin aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky said that “the appearance of voters in Chechnya is traditionally high,” and the Russian media have been circulating forecasts that at least two-thirds of the republic's population will cast votes.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1595. Chechnya Weekly: pressure on chechens to vote in referendum

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Russian authorities and their allies in Chechnya are actively trying to create the impression that the March 23 constitutional referendum enjoys massive popular support. Buvaisar Arsakhanov, head of the election commission for Chechnya, told the news agency Itar-Tass on March 11 that almost 10,000 refugees have already expressed their desire to vote in the referendum. Vladimir Zorin, federal minister for nationalities, told a March 10 press conference that “the residents of the Chechen Republic themselves are placing great hopes on the referendum.” For the first time in ten years, he said, they will have the possibility “to express their will for peace and normal life.” (Zorin chose to ignore the 1997 vote, recognized as free and fair by international human rights observers, in which Aslan Maskhadov was elected president of Chechnya.) The pro-Kremlin website Strana.ru quoted Akhmad Kadyrov on March 5 as estimating that 96 percent of the residents of Chechnya are ready to take part in the referendum. That figure is reminiscent of the near-unanimous “elections” of the Soviet years.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1596. Chechnya Weekly: New Idea of Heroism

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 03-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Russia's highest military award, the order of “Hero of Russia,” has been bestowed on five people for their roles in the Dubrovka Theater hostage crisis of October 2002. But a member of the federal Duma learned that only two of these medals went to soldiers who actually took part in the storming of the theater. Another two went to top leaders of the secret police, and the fifth went to the chemist responsible for releasing the gas that killed about 200 of the hostages (see Chechnya Weekly, December 17, 2002).
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1597. Chechnya Weekly: News Briefs

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Reversal on voting rights for Chechen refugees? In an apparent reversal, the head of the Moscow-appointed Chechen government told a Grozny press conference on February 25 that only voters physically present in Chechnya will be allowed to cast ballots in next month's constitutional referendum. Akhmad Kadyrov said that no polling stations would be open outside Chechnya's boundaries. He thus seemed to be indicating that tens of thousands of Chechen refugees in neighboring Ingushetia will be able to vote only if they return to war torn Chechnya. A report by the Russian news agency Novosti said that “according to Mr. Kadyrov, all wishing to vote can come to Chechnya and vote there.” If the Novosti report is accurate, it means that Kadyrov has broken his recent pledge to the visiting human rights commissioner of the Council of Europe. He had announced his support of the March referendum after Kadyrov assured him that the refugees in Ingushetia would be allowed to take part.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

1598. Chechnya Weekly: News Briefs

Author:: Lawrence Uzzell
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Kremlin admits constitution flawed. The Putin administration's in-house human rights advisers admit that its proposed constitution for Chechnya has serious flaws. Human-rights ombudsman Oleg Mironov told Radio Liberty on February 4 that the proposed text gives the president of the Chechen republic too much power at the expense of the legislature. Ella Pamfilova, head of the president's human rights commission, expressed concern about the power granted to the president of the Russian Federation to dismiss the president of Chechnya. Nevertheless, the two have chosen not to challenge Putin on what has become the centerpiece of his Chechnya strategy: going ahead with the constitutional referendum on March 23.
Topic:: Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia

1599. Mexico Alert: Mexico's Southern Flank: A Crime-ridden "Third U.S. Border"

Author:: George W. Grayson
Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Mexico's southern flank constitutes a porous, crime-ridden third border of the United States. The problem is that both President Vicente Fox and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge concentrate on the U.S.-Mexican frontier, while neglecting the Mexican-Guatemalan interface that provides an open sesame for narcotraffickers, illegal aliens, prostitutes, smugglers, and terrorists.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and North America

1600. Canada Alert: The Smart Border Process at Two: Losing Momentum?

Author:: Andre Belelieu
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On December 12, 2001, Canada and the United States signed the Smart Border Declaration, which gave birth to the 30-point Smart Border Action Plan. This bilateral agreement instantly became the de facto framework for ensuring the world's longest undefended border remained secure, while facilitating the flow of people, goods, and services, and was a key component in the larger homeland security goal of creating a zone of confidence against terrorist activity, while causing minimal damage to the world's largest trading relationship. Two years later, the Canadian and U.S. governments can point to progress on all 30 points contained in the Action Plan. Through cooperation and an understanding that a smart border works in the interest of both countries, Canada and the United States can claim to be closer than ever to ensuring that the Canada-U.S. border remains “open to trade and closed to terrorists.”
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Latin America, and North America

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