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402. Living with Palestinian Democracy
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- By electing a parliament dominated by Hamas, Palestinians have sharply challenged U.S. policy. The initial American reaction—undermining the new government—will leave the population in chaos, with various Palestinian groups vying for influence. Political constraints preclude anything but a Hamas government in the short term. But the Hamas victory should not be viewed as a defeat for the American vision of reform—which, indeed, may offer a path out of the current deadlock. The United States should develop a policy for the longer term to continue calming the Israeli- Palestinian conflict; maintain the Palestinian Authority; and work for political reform by focusing on the judiciary, media, and other institutions that are independent of the current regime.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
403. Pakistan: The Myth of an Islamist Peril
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The risk of an Islamist takeover in Pakistan is a myth invented by the Pakistani military to consolidate its hold on power. In fact, religious political parties and militant organizations are manipulated by the Pakistani Army to achieve its own objectives, domestically and abroad. The army, not the Islamists, is the real source of insecurity on the subcontinent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
404. Effective Counterterrorism and the Limited Role of Predictive Data Mining
- Author:
- Jim Harper and Jeff Jonas
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, spurred extraordinary efforts intended to protect America from the newly highlighted scourge of international terrorism. Among the efforts was the consideration and possible use of “data mining” as a way to discover planning and preparation for terrorism. Data mining is the process of searching data for previously unknown patterns and using those patterns to predict future outcomes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, National Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America
405. Foreign Aid and the Weakening of Democratic Accountability in Uganda
- Author:
- Andrew Mwenda
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Africa is the world's poorest continent. Between 1974 and 2003, the per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa declined by 11 percent. Africa continues to trail the rest of the world on human development indicators including life expectancy; infant mortality; undernourishment; school enrollment; and the incidence of HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. The international aid lobby advocates more foreign aid and greater debt relief for Africa as solutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa
406. India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When the third round of the normalisation talks concludes in July 2006, India and Pakistan will be no closer than when they began the process in February 2004 to resolving differences, including over Kashmir. What they call their "composite dialogue" has helped reduce tensions and prevent a return to the climate of 2001-2002, when they were on the verge of all-out war, but progress has been limited to peripheral issues. India's prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, have reiterated commitments to sustain the dialogue. It is unrealistic, however, to expect radical change. International, particularly U.S. support for the process will likely dissuade either side from pulling out but asymmetry of interests and goals militates against a major breakthrough. The need is to concentrate on maintaining a cold peace until a long process can produce an atmosphere in which the support of elected governments in both states might realistically bring a Kashmir solution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Kashmir
407. The Golan Heights and Syrian-Israeli Relations: What Does Asad Want?
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The first annual International Media Forum on the Golan Heights, held November 5-7, 2006, in the city of Quneitra on the Syria-Israel border, highlighted Syria's stated desire for the return of the entire Golan. The forum's backdrop was a litany of controversial statements made by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad about his next moves in relation to Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
408. Prosecuting Terrorists: A Look at the American and Israeli Experiences
- Author:
- Christopher Hamilton and Dvorah Chen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israel's summer war with Hizballah has again raised legal questions about the imprisonment of terrorists in Israel. From its founding, the state of Israel has been forced to confront belligerent activities by hostile states and organizations seeking to destroy it. The struggle against Palestinian terrorism has taken an enormous toll over the course of the second intifada, during which time more than one thousand Israelis have been killed and thousands more wounded. Enemy combatants are imprisoned in order to prevent them from causing further destruction. Therefore, terrorist detentions play a central role in the struggle to prevent terrorist activities, and the legal issues surrounding these detentions pose crucial concerns for the entire international community. There are two major processes for the prosecution of terrorist detainees in Israel: (1) through the normal civilian criminal track based on penal legislation, and (2) through special administrative measures under the minister of defense.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America, Middle East, and Israel
409. From Beirut to Gaza: Israel's Neighbors in the Aftermath of War
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The governments on both of our “hot” fronts, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, are on the verge of change, with practical, immediate implications for Israel—and unfortunately, not positive ones. Rather, the storm clouds continue to gather on the strategic horizon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
410. On the Record: Robert Gates on the Middle East
- Author:
- Robert Gates
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 24, 2004, Gates was interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman of the Council on Foreign Relations: Gwetzmann: “Do you have any predictions as to how Iraq is going to turn out?” Gates: “No. We have the old line in the intelligence business that everything we want to know is divided into two categories: secrets and mysteries.” Gwertzman: “And Iraq is which?” Gates: “Iraq is very much the latter.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
411. Countering Holocaust Denial in Arab and Muslim Societies: A New Approach
- Author:
- Robert Satloff, Akbar Ahmed, and Gregg Rickman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Of all the forms of anti-Semitism in Arab societies, Holocaust denial is one of the most pernicious and widespread. Generally it takes one of three forms: outright denial, Holocaust glorification, and Holocaust minimization or trivialization. One does no favor to Arabs by exempting them from this history, whatever its connection to their political dispute with Israel. And because jihadists' conspiracy theories target a coalition of “Crusaders and Jews,” exempting Arabs from Holocaust history certainly does America no favor either.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Genocide, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, America, and Israel
412. Turkey Gets Ready to Elect President under New Chief of Staff: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 1, 2006, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit became Turkey's new chief of staff. Compared with his predecessor, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, who came into office about the same time as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, General Buyukanit is a more vocal personality on many issues, including secularism. As Turkey prepares for the April 2007 election of a new president by parliament, General Buyukanit's term marks a new, crucial era in military-civilian relations in Turkey. What are the dynamics of this new era, and what implications does it have for U.S. policy?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Turkey
413. Ending the Palestinian Political Stalemate: Abbas's Electoral Option
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the breakdown in talks over the formation of a unity government in mid-September, the Palestinian political environment has become more dangerous and dysfunctional. Paralyzed by ongoing international economic and political isolation, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has essentially ceased to function as tens of thousands of public sector employees continue to strike in protest against unpaid salaries. Factional violence assumed a new level of intensity on October 1 when the Hamas interior minister, Sayed Siam, ordered Hamas's security force to break up demonstrations by the mainstream Fatah-dominated security services, who were protesting after not receiving salary payments. The resulting gun battles left twelve people dead and dozens injured. Fatah loyalists responded to the incident in Gaza by targeting Hamas interests in the West Bank, burning offices, kidnapping officials, and threatening to assassinate Hamas leaders.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Environment, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Palestine and Gaza
414. Yemen's President to Be Reelected As Terrorist Plots Revealed
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 20, amid reports of al-Qaeda plots against local American targets, the people of the strategically important but impoverished Arabian Peninsula state of Yemen go to the polls to elect a president. The president will not be new -- the incumbent Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for twenty-eight years, is expected to be reelected. Apart from last-minute doubts about the poll caused by the security crisis, the main question is how sweeping his victory will be. The last time elections were held, in 1999, President Saleh polled 96 percent, including the vote of his only opponent, a member of his own political party who said he considered Saleh more worthy. This time the field includes four other candidates. Saleh's main rival is Faysal bin Shamlan, a former oil minister who is backed by an alliance of opposition parties and whom Saleh has linked to an arrested "major terrorist."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America and Yemen
415. Reconstructing Lebanon: Short- and Longer-Term Challenges
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has secured pledges for assistance roughly equal to its $3.6 billion estimate of what is required to rebuild from the recent war. Though foreign assistance will be an important element in the short-term physical reconstruction, it will do little to help Beirut contend with the longstanding structural maladies afflicting the economy—particularly $40 billion in government debt. Lebanon also faces the challenge of how to reinforce central government authority in the face of Hizballah's efficient reconstruction efforts.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
416. Containing Hizballah's Terrorist Wing
- Author:
- Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As part of the international effort to ensure that the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel can become a sustainable ceasefire, much attention has been paid to blocking arms shipments to Hizballah, as called for in UN Security Council Resolution 1701. But another threat to peace in the region is Hizballah's potent terrorist wing. Arguably its most dangerous offensive weapon, Hizballah's terrorist wing was active throughout this recent conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
417. Making the Lebanon Ceasefire Work: Security Requirements and Implications for an International Force
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt, Emile El-Hokayem, and Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Daniel Christman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 23, 2006, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Daniel Christman, Emile El-Hokayem, and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Christman is senior vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and previously served as assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Emile El-Hokayem is a Middle East analyst at the Henry L. Stimson Center. Michael Eisenstadt is director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
418. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
419. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
420. Why a Multinational Force is Essential in Lebanon
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Lebanon plunges deeper into ruin and chaos as a result of Hizballah's “gang war” tactics against Israel's expanded military campaign to degrade the power of the Islamist party, Hizballah, Syria, and its allies in Lebanon are devising plans to subvert an international agreement on a multinational force to guard the Israel-Lebanon border. They are also preparing for a political comeback in a postconflict Lebanon by riding the wave of the victory Hizballah is sure to claim whatever the outcome—a supposed triumph that in reality will be at best a Pyrrhic victory.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
421. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
422. Assessing What Arabs Do, Not What They Say
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 25, 2006, Robert Satloff and David Pollock addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Satloff is the executive director of The Washington Institute and the author most recently of the Institute monograph Assessing What Arabs Do, Not What They Say: A New Approach to Understanding Arab Anti-Americanism. Dr. David Pollock, formerly head of Near East research in the U.S. Information Agency, currently works in the Office of the Undersecretary of Global Affairs at the Department of State. His remarks were off the record. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Satloff's remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Arabia
423. The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view is that since no one has an interest in escalating to a regional conflict it will not happen. Both of these views do not account for the complex set of dynamics and the real possibility that accident and error can intervene.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
424. An International Stabilization Force for Lebanon: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As diplomacy to halt the violence in Lebanon slowly gathers momentum, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has endorsed the idea of an international “stabilization force” to keep the peace, seconding proposals previously put forward by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, British prime minister Tony Blair, and European Union foreign policy envoy Javier Solana. Such a force, however, is liable to face major obstacles and incur substantial risks that could jeopardize its prospects for success. For this reason it is essential to consider what past experiences in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere teach about peacekeeping and peace enforcement operations, the sort of challenges such a force could encounter, and the kind of mandate and capabilities required to meet these challenges.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
425. Hizballah's Global Terror Option
- Author:
- Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
426. Hamas and Israel: From Isolation to Confrontation
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 10, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Makovsky and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
427. Reactions in the Middle East to the Israel-Lebanon Crisis
- Author:
- Rana Shaab, Nicholas Ravella, Nathan Hodson, and Daniel Fink
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of hostilities after Hizballah's July 12 raid into Israel, in which it captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, has elicited a variety of responses from government officials and other prominent figures throughout the Middle East. Though it is not surprising to see harsh statements about Israel, it is unusual to see Arab leaders criticizing Hizballah for its role in precipitating the conflict. The usually cautious Saudi authorities implicitly criticized Hizballah for adventurism; is seems that Riyadh may be wary of Iranian influence. The following is a sampling of Middle Eastern reactions, compiled from various regional and international media sources.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
428. Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash
- Author:
- Samer Abu Libdeh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Even while Israelis and Palestinians are locked in deepening conflict over the kidnapping of a young Israeli soldier and the future of the Hamas government, political life on the East Bank of the Jordan River is increasingly focused on internal Jordanian concerns.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan
429. Hizballah: Learning to Live with Resolution 1559
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Hizballah has been deployed along the blue line, the internationally accepted border between Lebanon and Israel, since May 2000 when the Israeli army left southern Lebanon. Hizballah's fulltime strength is 500–600 well trained, combat experienced fighters, but in an emergency the organization can also call upon thousands of other fighters with elementary training. Training continues in the eastern Bekaa valley, although at a much reduced rate compared to the 1990s. At present, Hizballah uses Shebaa Farms to justify its military operations and continued weapons possession, a rationale based on the claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese territory occupied by Israel, even as the United Nations considers this territory to be Syrian.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon
430. Tracking Hamas's Leadership: Insights into the Organization's Structure and Evolution
- Author:
- Christopher Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Taken together, the kidnapping on Sunday of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and the signing on Tuesday of an agreement among Palestinian factions to create a unity government for the Palestinian Authority (PA) suggest that significant seismic forces may be developing within Hamas that may have a decisive impact both on the organization's solidarity and on the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. While the unity agreement itself has little significance beyond internal Palestinian politics—it is a nonstarter for the Israelis and represents a major retreat from previous Palestinian positions—its importance lies in the fact that it highlights the possible emergence of a fissure within the Hamas organization between its internal leaders, headed by Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, who experience the brunt both of popular concerns and Israeli reprisals, and its external leaders, chief among them Damascus-based Khaled Mashal, who are free of these constraints and therefore able to insist on more maximalist positions. However, in signing this agreement—apparently without full consultation with, or the approval of, the Damascus contingent—the Hamas leaders in the territories have signaled both their independence and their intention to embark on a more pragmatic path than that preferred by Hamas's more ideological external elements. Indeed, the timing and nature of the attack seems to have been specifically intended to disrupt the effort to agree on a unity government with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and thereby, the possible emergence of a more moderate Hamas strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
431. Abbas, Hamas, and the Referendum Trap
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's pursuit of a referendum on the Palestinian National Accord has been widely interpreted by commentators and reporters as a power play designed to circumvent the Hamas-led government and force it to implicitly accept Israel's existence. But while the process of conducting a referendum -- the legality of which remains questionable -- would shift power away from the government and the legislature, the actual text of the document, which a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails negotiated, more closely resembles the political program of Hamas than that of Abbas. Moreover, Hamas has recovered from its initial surprise at the referendum initiative and has mounted an effective response, first by challenging the legality of a referendum, then by dragging Abbas into negotiations over the substance of the Accord. Despite a possible compromise that may emerge in coming days and shift the composition of the government or modify the language of the Accord, Hamas has used the internal Palestinian debate over a referendum to secure its internal legitimacy and advance many of its governing priorities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
432. Three Legacies: Ataturk, Inonu, and Ozal and the Making of the U.S.-Turkish Relationship
- Author:
- Eric Edelman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Sayin arkadashlar merhaba. Hello, my good friends. It is an honor to be here today to deliver this years Turgut Ozal lecture. I would like to thank The Washington Institute, Rob Satloff, Soner Cagaptay, and in particular, Mark Parris, one of my distinguished predecessors as ambassador to Turkey, for inviting me. This institutions excellent work in promoting U.S.-Turkish relations does not go unnoticed and I am proud to be a part of it. In fact, I would argue that the Institutes work on Turkey is more important now than it has ever been. I would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the important efforts of my successor, Ambassador Ross Wilson, who with great dedication and skill works everyday at maintaining our strong relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and Middle East
433. Iranian Azeris: A Giant Minority
- Author:
- Ali M. Koknar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently in Iran, tens of thousands of Iranian Azeris took to the streets for several days of demonstrations touched off by the May 12 publication of a racist cartoon in the state-run Iran newspaper. (The cartoon depicted an Azeri-speaking cockroach.) Iranian security forces cracked down violently on the demonstrators, killing at least four people (Azeri nationalists claim twenty dead), injuring forty-three, and detaining hundreds of others. These developments indicate brewing discontent among Iran's Azeri population and should be studied for their implications for U.S. and Western policy toward Tehran.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Tehran
434. Understanding the Middle East: A View from inside the Mossad
- Author:
- Efraim Halevy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the current global circumstances, the role of intelligence gathering and analysis in policymaking has become increasingly important. As a result, intelligence leaders have ever more influence in the policymaking process. This is particularly the case in Israel, where some of the political leadership's most significant decisions came on the heels of Mossad and Military Intelligence initiatives and assessments.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem
435. Iran: International Pressure and Internal Conflict
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany consult today about what measures to take to influence Iran's decisions about its nuclear program, it is worth evaluating what impact outside pressure would have on President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's administration and its ability to overcome internal political and economic challenges. International pressure has already increased tensions between different factions within the Islamic Republic and laid bare the contradictory aspects of the president's political and cultural management.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Germany
436. Perils and Promise of U.S.-Iranian Negotiations
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable interlocutor, and his recent statements on Syria and Hizballah typify his disregard for the conventions of the Lebanese political establishment. While many Lebanese may quietly support Jumblat's truth telling, his statements are sure to increase his list of powerful enemies.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Syria
437. Security in Iraq: Prospects for Progress in the al-Maliki Era
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt, Jeffrey White, and Matt Sherman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 28, 2006, Jeffrey White, Matt Sherman, and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Jeffrey White, the Berrie Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute, spent thirty-four years with the Defense Intelligence Agency. Matt Sherman recently returned from Iraq after serving for two years as the senior coalition advisor to the Iraqi Ministry of the Interior. During his tenure, he counseled four interior ministers and was the lead coordinator for policy on Iraqi police services. Michael Eisenstadt is director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program, and is the coauthor, with Jeffrey White, of the Institute Policy Focus, Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Washington
438. Funding Alternatives to Hamas
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 7, the State Department announced its plan for restructuring aid to the Palestinians in response to the formation of a government led by Hamas, which has refused Quartet demands to recognize Israel, cease violence and terror, and accept past diplomatic agreements. In order to target assistance toward the Palestinian people rather than the Hamas leadership, the United States will now provide the vast majority of its aid (some $203 million) for humanitarian needs, including food, health, and education programs primarily administered by United Nations agencies such as the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the UN World Food Program. An additional $42 million is allocated for "securing and expanding democracy," in an effort that "protects and promotes moderation and democratic alternatives to Hamas." Assisting the development of such a peaceful and democratic alternative -- as distinct from an immediate overthrow of Hamas -- will require the United States to support programs driven internally by Palestinians that can foster a broad-based political movement. Bolstering a centralized Fatah-like organization run by elites will only lead to further corruption and the continued alienation of the Palestinian public.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Corruption, Government, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Palestine
439. Quelling Iraq's Sectarian Violence: What the United States Can Do
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The ongoing debate over whether or not Iraq is on the verge or in the midst of a civil war is a distraction from the main challenge the United States now faces in Iraq: how to reduce or contain sectarian (and ethnic) violence that could derail the political process and drag Iraq's neighbors into the conflict. That said, the recent increase in sectarian violence following the attack on Samarra's Askariyya Shrine does not necessarily alter the fundamental character of the conflict: attacks on Shiites have long been an important element of Sunni Arab insurgent operations, although Shiites have only recently begun striking back in a sustained way. The violence does, however, have the potential to spiral out of control should another insurgent attack damage an important Shiite shrine or result in very large loss of life.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
440. Lebanese National Dialogue: Avoiding the Hard Questions?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 22, leaders from across the Lebanese political spectrum completed another round of the ongoing National Dialogue. The talks, which started earlier this month, have touched on some of the more salient topics in Lebanese politics. Conspicuously absent from the agenda, however, has been a discussion of disarming militias, such as Hizballah, a key element of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. The indefinite postponement of this critical issue will make it difficult for the United States to continue to actively support its democratic allies in post-Syria Lebanon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
441. Palestinian Economic Dependence on Israel
- Author:
- Elizabeth Young
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the international donor community struggles to determine its stance on aid to the Palestinians under the Hamas government, it is important to remember the extent to which the Palestinian economy is dependent upon Israeli decisions. Last year the international community gave the Palestinians $1.4 billion in aid; Israel has the potential to affect at least that sum through its policies on trade, Palestinian workers in Israel, and the tax revenue it collects.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
442. The Shape of Israel's Election Race
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a surprise move prior to Israel's March 28 election, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unveiled a proposal that Israeli settlers be consolidated into West Bank settlement blocs largely adjacent to the Green Line. A week after the announcement, Israeli public reaction suggests his gamble seems to have paid off. According to a Yediot Ahronot poll released on March 17, Israelis favor Olmert's unilateralist proposal by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. Moreover, Olmert's poll standing was not negatively impacted by the proposal, despite the fact that it could mean the removal of an estimated 60,000 settlers from dozens of settlements scattered across the larger part of the West Bank outside Israel's security barrier. (Inside the Israeli security barrier, there are approximately 193,000 settlers, mostly in blocs, in the 8 percent of the West Bank largely adjacent to the pre-1967 boundaries. By comparison, President Clinton's final proposal in 2000 involved Israel keeping 5 percent of the land.) An Olmert security advisor and former Shin Bet head, Avi Dichter, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not be withdrawn from the West Bank. Olmert was able to use his commanding lead to answer critics who say that the new party leader lacks Ariel Sharon's track record and therefore the authority to ask the public to trust his decisions. In the March 17 poll, Olmert's Kadima stood to win 39 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Labor was polling at 19 seats and Likud, 15 seats. Olmert's standing was undoubtedly assisted by Israel's March 15 operation to seize from a Jericho prison the assassins of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi. Olmert hopes the operation will burnish his security credentials and undercut Netanyahu's argument that he is uniquely tough enough to challenge Hamas. (Olmert needs to be concerned about the 22 percent of Israelis who are undecided—the equivalent of twenty-five Knesset seats.)
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
443. Is Oil Independence Attainable and Desirable?
- Author:
- Gal Luft and Edward Morse
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 8, 2006, Gal Luft and Edward Morse addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-chair of the Set America Free Coalition. Mr. Morse is executive advisor at Hess Energy Trading Company and former publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Washington
444. Responding to Hamas's Triumph
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Patrick Clawson, and Marc Otte
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 3, 2006, Marc Otte, Patrick Clawson, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Otte is the European Union's special representative for the Middle East peace process. Dr. Clawson, The Washington Institute's deputy director for research, is author with Zoe Danon Gedal of the Institute monograph Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
445. Where to Draw the Line on International Assistance to the Palestinians?
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Michael Herzog, and Elizabeth Young
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the immediate aftermath of Hamas's parliamentary victory in late January, the Quartet—the United States, the EU, Russia, and the UN—set clear criteria for funding a Palestinian Authority (PA) under Hamas's leadership. The Quartet said direct funding would be a function of the new government's “commitment to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap.” Indeed, there is no other example of taxpayers subsidizing a government run by an organization that appears on State Department and EU terror lists.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
446. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
447. The Security Implications of a Hamas-Led Palestinian Authority
- Author:
- Moshe Yaalon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 8, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon served until June 2005 as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. The following is a transcript of his remarks. “Hamas's recent victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections challenges all those actors currently invested in promoting change in the Middle East. These include Israel, Western nations, Arab democrats, and Palestinian moderates. Adding to this challenge is the perception of radical Islamists—Sunni and Shiite alike—that Hamas's victory is a defeat for U.S. policy in the region, a blow to democratization, and a victory for Islamist fundamentalism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
448. Miscommunication between Iranian Society and the West on Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the growing controversy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and Western suspicions about the military intentions of the Iranian regime has reached a crucial phase. A serious problem for the Western campaign to press the Islamic Republic about its nuclear program is that Iranian society has been indifferent or hostile to the West's efforts. The United States in particular needs to find ways to reenergize its outreach to Iranian society.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
449. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?
- Author:
- Emily Hunt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
450. Turkey: Between the West and the Middle East
- Author:
- Yigit Alpogan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 24, 2006, Yigit Alpogan, secretary-general of Turkey's National Security Council, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Alpogan, who assumed his current post in August 2004 as the first civilian head of the Turkish National Security Council, previously served as the Turkish ambassador to Greece and Turkmenistan as well as deputy undersecretary of foreign affairs. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
451. Hamas's Rise and Israel's Choice
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 23, 2006, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the 2006 Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel's National Security. Excerpts from Dr. Satloff's remarks follow. “Beware the unintended consequences of sound policies. On June 24, 2002, President Bush announced a major shift in U.S. policy. No longer would fulfillment of diplomatic requirements—that is, acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 242 or recognizing Israel's right to exist—alone merit the full engagement of the United States in assisting Palestinians as they try to achieve their legitimate rights through negotiations with Israel. From then on, how they handled themselves at home—whether they are corrupt, whether they are democratic, whether they are, as the president said, 'untainted by terrorism'—would all matter.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Middle East
452. America and the Middle East, circa 2006
- Author:
- James F. Hoge Jr. and Stuart Rothenberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Barring any unforeseen developments in the region, there will be very little change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East this year. Terrorism will remain the top priority overall. In addition, the Bush administration will continue to maintain the priorities that have defined American approaches over recent decades, such as preserving energy supplies, containing strife, ensuring Israel's existence, and working with allies such as Turkey. Further, the White House will reiterate its condemnations of the Syrian regime—though it will refrain from more active policies of regime change for fear that a new government would be even worse. However, the issues of democratization, Iraqi development, the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will also be high on the agenda in 2006.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, and Middle East
453. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
454. Map Wars: The UAE Reclaims Lost Territory from Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After years of quiet diplomatic frustration, the oil-rich Persian Gulf federated state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has publicly reopened a dispute with neighboring Saudi Arabia over two parts of their common border. A map in the 2006 edition of the official UAE Yearbook shows the UAE extending westward as far as Qatar, across territory currently controlled by Saudi Arabia. (The map in the 2005 edition does not show this.) Less obvious, but also depicted, is a southern border that extends to include most of the Shaybah Oil Field, Saudi Arabia's newest oil production area.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
455. Khaddam's Revelations: Is the Asad Regime Unraveling?
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Abdul Halim Khaddam, who was vice-president of Syria from 1984 to June 2005, gave an explosive interview to the Dubai-based al-Arabia TV on December 30 implicating the Syrian leadership, including President Bashar al-Asad, in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Khaddam's action widened irrevocably the crack in Syria's political system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
456. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem
457. 'Outsourcing' de facto Statehood: Russia and the Secessionist Entities in Georgia and Moldova
- Author:
- Daniel Gros and Stefano Micossi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The European Union is suffering a deep crisis: disdain, disillusionment and distrust top the list of prevailing sentiments towards the European institutions, as was brought home dramatically by the failed referenda on the Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Moldova, Middle East, France, Georgia, and Netherlands
458. It's a long way to Copenhagen
- Author:
- Willem H. Buiter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- On October 3, 2005, Turkey officially started negotiations for membership in the European Union. Whether Turkey becomes a full member of the EU is likely to be a defining decision, both for the existing EU members and for Turkey. The regional - and geo-political consequences of success or failure of the negotiations, and its cultural and ideological impact, are likely to be even more significant than its economic consequences, although even from an economic perspective the stakes are very high. Turkey's population of over 70 million is larger than that of the ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 combined. Unlike the EU-25 (and in particular the ten new member states), the Turkish population is young and growing. Its present per capita income is lower than that of any of the EU-25 countries – about at the level of Romania and Macedonia, using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) estimates of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, with the right institutions and policies, Turkey could become a true tiger economy. But this is not guaranteed. With the institutions and policies of the second half of the 20th century, it could end up a mangy cat instead of a tiger.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Eastern Europe, Romania, and Macedonia
459. From Neighbourhood to Integration Policy: Are there concrete alternatives to enlargement?
- Author:
- Eneko Landaburu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The answer to the question posed in the subtitle is yes, indeed, there are concrete alternatives to enlargement. As there must be. Enlargement has been a key tool in projecting stability across our continent. But it is a reality that the EU cannot expand ad infinitum – everything has its limits. We must honour our present basic commitments, while strictly insisting on the criteria. One of these criteria is our own absorption capacity – it is clear that in some member states the pace and scale of enlargement is approaching the limits of what public opinion will accept. To overstretch, rather than consolidate, the Union would be detrimental not only for us but also our partners. These are all issues with which our leaders will struggle in Vienna in a few months time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Vienna
460. Deadlock avoided, but sense of mission lost? The Enlarged EU and its Uncertain Constitution
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas and Justus Schönlau
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The assertion that the enlarged EU will become dysfunctional under the current treaty provisions has been one of the strongest arguments in favour of the Constitutional Treaty. Also after the two 'no' votes to the text, political leaders continue to see the necessity of institutional reform. Jacques Chirac and Tony Blair, neither of whom is keen to resume the ratification process as such, have stressed independently that the issue needs to be addressed in the near future. The British Prime Minister argues that the EU cannot function properly with 25 member states under today's rules of governance, adding "Having spent six months as EU president, I am a good witness of that." His French counterpart even predicted that the status quo would eventually "condemn the EU to inertia and paralysis."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
461. The game's not over yet for the Capital Requirements Directive...
- Author:
- Rym Ayadi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Following seven years of painstaking and demanding negotiations, European bankers and regulators breathed a sigh of relief when the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) finally got through the European Parliament on 28 September 2005, and was formally approved by the Council of Ministers of the 25 EU member states on 11 October 2005. The new CRD will finally apply the complex, risk-sensitive Basel II capital adequacy rules to some 8,000 European banks and some 2,000 investments firms in two stages, the first in January 2007 and the second one year later.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
462. An Interim Plan for South-East Europe: Customs Union with the EU and a Regional Schengen for the Free Movement of People
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The central recommendation of the Amato report of April 20051 set the year 2014 as the target accession date for the whole of the Western Balkans, which would take the EU from the 27 (in 2007 or 2008) to 32 member states minimally, 33 with Turkey, and 35 in the event of independence for Montenegro and Kosovo. This scenario is in contradiction with the present mood of the EU following the French and the Dutch referenda, which rejected the Constitution that was itself designed to pave the way institutionally for further enlargement. The EU has now officially entered a period of profound reflection on its future, a process which cannot be hurried.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Montenegro
463. Moldova's Uncertain Future
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With Romania's expected entry into the European Union in 2007, the EU will share a border with Moldova, a weak state divided by conflict and plagued by corruption and organised crime. Moldova's leadership has declared its desire to join the EU, but its commitment to European values is suspect, and efforts to resolve its dispute with the breakaway region of Transdniestria have failed to end a damaging stalemate that has persisted for fifteen years. Young people have little confidence in the country's future and are leaving at an alarming rate. If Moldova is to become a stable part of the EU's neighbourhood, there will need to be much greater international engagement, not only in conflict resolution but in spurring domestic reforms to help make the country more attractive to its citizens.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Romania
464. Israel/Palestine/Lebanon: Climbing Out of the Abyss
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is immersed in its worst crisis in years following the capture of three Israeli soldiers by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Lebanese Party of God (Hizbollah) in late June 2006 and early July, Israel's comprehensive offensive throughout the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and the daily firing of rockets deep into Israel. And horrific as it is, the current toll of death and destruction could reach entirely different proportions should a new threshold be crossed – a Hizbollah rocket that strikes a chemical plant or a heavily populated area in Tel Aviv or Haifa, an Israeli bombing raid resulting in massive casualties, a major ground offensive, or the expansion of the war to Syria or Iran. A political solution to the twin crises of Lebanon and Palestine must be the international community's urgent priority. Waiting and hoping for military action to achieve its purported goals will have not only devastating humanitarian consequences: it will make it much harder to pick up the political pieces when the guns fall silent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon
465. Beyond Victimhood: Women's Peacebuilding in Sudan, Congo and Uganda
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Peacebuilding cannot succeed if half the population is excluded from the process. Crisis Group's research in Sudan, Congo (DRC) and Uganda suggests that peace agreements, post-conflict reconstruction, and governance do better when women are involved. Women make a difference, in part because they adopt a more inclusive approach toward security and address key social and economic issues that would otherwise be ignored. But in all three countries, as different as each is, they remain marginalised in formal processes and under-represented in the security sector as a whole. Governments and the international community must do much more to support women peace activists.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Debt, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Democratic Republic of the Congo
466. Southern Serbia: In Kosovo's Shadow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Southern Serbia's Albanian-majority Presevo Valley is a still incomplete Balkan success story. Since international and Serbian government diplomacy resolved an ethnic Albanian insurgency in 2001, donors and Belgrade have invested significant resources to undo a legacy of human rights violations and improve the economy. Tensions are much decreased, major human rights violations have ended, the army and police are more sensitive to Albanian concerns and there is progress, though hesitant, in other areas, such as a multi-ethnic police force, gradual integration of the judiciary, and Albanian language textbooks. Ethnic Albanians appear increasingly intent on developing their own political identity inside Serbia and finding a way to cohabit with Serbs, something that should be encouraged and supported. Nevertheless, the Kosovo status process threatens to disrupt the Presevo Valley's calm.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, Albania, and Southern Serbia
467. Darfur's Fragile Peace Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) signed under African Union (AU) auspices on 5 May 2006 between Sudan's government and the faction of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army led by Minni Arkou Minawi (SLA/MM) is a first step toward ending the violence but strong, coordinated action is needed if it is to take hold. The document has serious flaws, and two of the three rebel delegations did not accept it. Fighting between rebel and government forces is down somewhat but violence is worse in some areas due to clashes between SLA factions, banditry, and inter-tribal feuds, while the Chad border remains volatile. If the DPA is not to leave Darfur more fragmented and conflict-prone than before, the international community must rapidly take practical measures to shore up its security provisions, improve prospects for the displaced to return home, bring in the holdouts and rapidly deploy a robust UN peacekeeping force with Chapter VII authority.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Darfur
468. Geeing up the G-20
- Author:
- Mark P Thirlwell and Dr. Malcolm Cook
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Globalisation implies a big increase in the payoffs from successful cross-border economic cooperation. Yet the main international institutional mechanisms designed to facilitate such cooperation, the G7 and the IMF, are not up to it. Both the G7’s membership and the IMF’s governance structure significantly under-represent several key players in the modern global economy, a potentially fatal handicap when it comes to tackling some of the most pressing challenges now facing policymakers. Moreover, neither gives Australia a permanent seat at the top table.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
469. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
470. Russia's Challenges as Chair of the G-8
- Author:
- Anders Åslund
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- On January 1, Russia became the chair of the Group of Eight (G-8), the exclusive group of the biggest industrial democracies. This chairmanship raises many eyebrows. Russia was originally included in the G-8 to help lock in its democratic reforms, 1 but Russia is no longer even semidemocratic. Last year, US senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman sponsored a resolution urging President Bush to work for the suspension of Russia's membership until the Russian government accepted and adhered to “the norms and standards of free, democratic societies as generally practiced by every other member nation of the Group of 8 nations.” Jeffrey Garten ( Financial Times , June 28, 2005) has called Russia's chairmanship “farcical,” saying, “Two trends are changing the world for the better—freer markets and democratization. . . . But, alone among the summit member Russia is moving in the opposite direction. . . . Moscow's leader - ship of the G-8 reduces the credibility and the relevance of the group to zero.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
471. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations
- Author:
- Albert Kiedel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
472. Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic Ambitions: Building an Effective Policy Coordination Process
- Author:
- F. Stephen Larrabee, Jeffrey Simon, Jan Neutze, and Steven Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since his inauguration in January 2005, Ukrainian President Viktor Yush-chenko has repeatedly stated that his foremost foreign policy goal is his country's integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. “Joining Europe” today, be it preparing a country for a bid to enter the European Union or NATO, is an extraordinarily complex business. It will require the development of a consensus on a Euro-Atlantic policy course among the country's political leadership. It will also require an effective and coherent policy coordination structure. As the experience of other Eastern European countries has demonstrated, integration into the European Union or NATO is not just the responsibility of the foreign and defense ministries. It also requires coordination with the ministries of economy, justice, agrarian policy, transportation and communications, internal affairs – indeed, virtually every ministry in the Ukrainian Cabinet.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
473. Libya and the United States: The Next Steps
- Author:
- Ronald Bruce St. Jon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On the evening of December 19, 2003, the Libyan Foreign Ministry issued a statement, the product of nine months of tough negotiations with the United Kingdom and United States, renouncing weapons of mass destruction and related missile delivery systems. The statement said Libya had “decided, with its own free will, to get rid of these substances, equipment and programmes and to be free from all internationally banned weapons.” It added Libya intended to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime, the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol, and international biological and chemical weapons agreements and treaties. It pledged to “take these measures in a transparent way that could be proved, including accepting immediate international inspection.” Soon after the issuance of this statement, Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi publicly endorsed the move, terming it a “wise decision and a courageous step.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
474. The Carter Center News Fall 2006
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Marcel Wetsh'okonda fights for human rights laws to be passed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a country where 1,000 people die each day from disease, hunger, and vio-lence. It is no easy task.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
475. The Carter Center News Spring 2006
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Palestinian parliamentary election results surprised world leaders, international observers, and even Palestinians themselves when Hamas won a majority of the seats in January 2006.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
476. Border Management in the Kosovo-Southern Serbia-fYR Macedonia Vortex: a Local Perspective
- Author:
- Henry Bolton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The impositions of firstly, the international border between the fYR Macedonia and Yugoslavia in 1992, and secondly the conversion of Kosovo's Administrative Boundary Line (the ABL), between the province of Kosovo and the Republic of Serbia, into a de-facto border in 1999, have had significant impacts on the social and economic lives of the predominantly ethnic Albanian border communities of Kosovo, Serbia and fYR Macedonia within the GPKT (Gjilan/Gnjilane-Presevo-Kumanovo-Trgoviste) micro-region. The situation in the past, whereby the people of the micro-region could travel and interact freely, whether socially or commercially, has changed. Now people wishing to cross from one side of the GPKT micro-region to another, say Gjilan/Gnjiilane to Kumanovo, must cross what are, in effect, two policed and guarded borders, complete with passport checks and customs inspections.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia
477. Draft Constitution Gained, but an Important Opportunity Was Lost
- Author:
- Mona Iman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While the outcome of Iraq's October 15 national referendum is uncertain, it is clear that many of Iraq's Sunni Arabs will vote against it. Why are Sunni Arabs opposed to a constitution that appears to give them the same opportunities for self-governance that it provides to Kurds and Shia?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
478. Six-Party Talks: Defining A Realistic Roadmap for Success
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa, Scott Snyder, and Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The forthcoming resumption of Six-Party Talks to eliminate nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula is expected to build on the Joint Statement of principles released at the end of the last round on September 19, 2005. While some have criticized the vagueness of the Joint Statement, it represents the first tangible progress in identifying common principles and objectives in two years of sporadic meetings. If North Korea has indeed made a “strategic decision” to abandon its nuclear weapons programs – a thesis still to be tested – it may provide a basis for future progress. For this to occur, however, a more specific negotiating road map and implementing process must be developed. It is important to assess where the current guidelines might lead and to identify the "commitments for commitments" and "actions for actions" that might be envisioned as next steps.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
479. Rising Spatial Disparities and Development
- Author:
- Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Amidst a growing concern about increasing inequality, the spatial dimensions of inequality have begun to attract considerable policy interest. In China, Russia, India, Mexico, and South Africa, as well as most other developing and transition economies, there is a sense that spatial and regional disparities in economic activity, incomes and social indicators, are on the increase. Spatial inequality is a dimension of overall inequality, but it has added significance when spatial and regional divisions align with political and ethnic tensions to undermine social and political stability. Also important in the policy debate is a perceived sense that increasing internal spatial inequality is related to greater openness of economies, and to globalization in general.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Mexico
480. What Motivates Regional Financial Cooperation in East Asia Today?
- Author:
- Jennifer Amyx
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Regional financial cooperation in East Asia is proceeding with unprecedented intensity. Latest developments include two Asian Bond Funds, created by the regional central bankers group, and an Asian Bond Markets Initiative launched by the finance ministers of the Association of South East Asian Nations member states plus China, Japan, and South Korea (or ASEAN+3). Some observers continue to attribute such cooperation to sharpened antagonism between East Asia and the West since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. But this view overlooks a key internal driver: ChinaÂ's shift to a more proactive stance toward regional cooperation. Far from demonstrating an antagonism toward market-based financial systems, ASEAN+3 members are embracing more liberal rules for economic interaction in their creation of regional bond funds and markets. Financial cooperation in East Asia is today motivated by factors that differ considerably from those observed in the immediate aftermath of the Asian financial crisis—and the implications extend beyond East Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Israel
481. President Attempts to Show that Asia Matters to the United States
- Author:
- John Gershman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- President Bush is in Asia this week for a series of meetings, including bilateral meetings in Japan, South Korea, China, and Mongolia and attending the economic leaders meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. This trip comes on the heels of a disastrous trip by President Bush to Latin America, but there is little sign this trip will do much to rescue the President's sinking foreign policy reputation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea
482. Beyond Bonn: Revisioning the International Compact for Afghanistan
- Author:
- Peter Middlebrook and Mark Sedra
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The Bonn Agreement, signed on December 5, 2001, provided the road map for the transformation of the Afghan state, culminating in the September 18, 2005 legislative elections. The landmark polls, which proceeded largely peacefully, have elected an Afghan Parliament for the first time in more than three decades. Although the Bonn political process has made great strides toward facilitating Afghanistan's transition to democracy, the costs and challenges associated with the reform agenda are immense and continue to spiral. With a narrow revenue base, Afghanistan will remain dependent on support from the international community for many years to come, not just to cover the capital costs associated with reconstruction and poverty reduction but also to underwrite core operating expenditures. Once funding for Coalition military operations is factored in, the cost of maintaining relative peace and stability in Afghanistan could exceed the $16-18 billion per year currently being spent—a prohibitively high figure in light of creeping donor fatigue. With the security situation in the country still volatile, regional posturing intensifying, and the United States signaling that troop withdrawals are imminent, Afghanistan's transition remains fragile and uncertain. Senior Washington officials already quietly acknowledge that the reform process has failed to maintain the critical momentum that the Afghan government's landmark report, Securing Afghanistan's Future: Accomplishments and the Strategic Path Forward, appeared to generate when it was launched at the spring 2004 Berlin Donors Conference.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
483. Karen Hughes' Indonesia Visit Underscores Bush Administration's PR Problems
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- It is doubtful that the Bush administration will be very successful advancing America's image in the Islamic world as long as its representatives have such trouble telling the truth. A case in point took place on October 21, when U.S. Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes was talking before a group of university students in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. As she has found elsewhere in her visits in the Islamic world, there is enormous popular opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the ongoing U.S. counter-insurgency war.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Indonesia, Middle East, and Southeast Asia
484. Waiting to Exhale: The Six-Party Talks Agreement
- Author:
- Wade Huntley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Nuclear nonproliferation advocates worldwide welcomed the joint agreement issued September 19 by the participants in the "Six-Party Talks" process aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. The agreement evinces not only a commitment by North Korea to end all nuclear weapons development, but also a validation of a negotiated approach to the current Korean nuclear crisis which both North Korea and the United States have, at various times, resisted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and North Korea
485. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement
- Author:
- John Feffer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
486. Feeding the Nuclear Fire
- Author:
- Zia Mian and M.V. Ramana
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The July 18 joint statement by U.S. President George Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has attracted a great deal of comment. The focus has been on the possible consequences of U.S. promises to support India's nuclear energy program in exchange for India clearly separating its military and civilian nuclear facilities and programs and opening the latter to international inspection.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, India, and Asia
487. Giving Democracy a Bad Name: Afghanistan's Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Sonali Kolhatkar and Jim Ingalls
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The United States has supposedly created new "democracies" in Afghanistan and Iraq, but these endeavors give democracy a bad name. Sure, the two countries have some ingredients of representative democracy, such as elected officials and a constitution. But both countries are still beset by grinding poverty, insurgencies, and entrenched militia forces that make the exercise of democracy either impractical or dangerous. Both countries have high numbers of foreign troops occupying their land and terrorizing the population while hunting "terrorists." And both countries' governments answer to their respective U.S. ambassador on most issues. In the midst of such a violent and coercive environment, Afghans are pressing ahead with the latest in a series of "democratic" exercises imposed by the United States: the first Afghan parliamentary elections in four decades will take place this Sunday, September 18. Even though many Afghans hope that the elections will empower them to end their troubles, the fear is that the elections will probably be as undemocratic in practice as every other U.S.-inflicted Afghan institution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
488. U.S.-China Relations — Opportunities, Risks, and the Taiwan Issue
- Author:
- Thomas J. Bickford
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- China is primarily interested in concentrating on trade and economic development and therefore wants an international environment conducive to continued economic growth. Even with recent defense budget increases, China's ability to project power beyond its borders will be extremely limited for a long time to come. There is a real risk of conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, and U.S. policy needs to be aimed at avoiding such a conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Taiwan
489. August Around the World
- Author:
- Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The prevailing sentiment, less "laid back," refers to "the dog days of summer" from which the rich and well-connected have historically sought relief by getting out of town. Indeed, one can easily picture Caesar Augustus — in whose honor the Roman Senate renamed and lengthened the sixth month in the Julian calendar — abandoning Rome in the same way Congress and the president flee Washington.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States and Washington
490. Security Council Reform Debate Highlights Challenges Facing UN
- Author:
- Ian Williams
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Within a day of arriving at the United Nations John Bolton, the former lobbyist for Taiwan and advocate for one permanent seat on the Security Council, the United States, had cut a deal with the Chinese representative. China wants to stop an additional permanent Security Council seat for Japan. The United States had promised Japan its support in return for its loyalty over Iraq, but hated Germany more than it loves Japan. So the two agreed to thwart the attempt by the G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), to secure permanent seats during the current reform proposals.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, Brazil, and Germany
491. Bolton Appointment Provides New Opportunities
- Author:
- John Gershman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- President Bush's recess appointment of John Bolton as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations — the first time ever for the post — represents a sad irony in this year, the 60th anniversary of the signing of the San Francisco charter on June, 26 1945 and the ratification of the charter by the 5 permanent members of the Security Council and the majority of the signatories to the San Francisco Charter, on October 24, 1945.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States and San Francisco
492. The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The election of the hard-line Teheran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, over former President Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani as the new head of Iran is undeniably a setback for those hoping to advance greater social and political freedom in that country. It should not necessarily be seen as a turn to the right by the Iranian electorate, however. The 70-year old Rafsanjani — a cleric and penultimate wheeler-dealer from the political establishment — was portrayed as the more moderate conservative. The fact that he had become a millionaire while in government was apparently seen as less important than his modest reform agenda. By contrast, the young Teheran mayor focused on the plight of the poor and cleaning up corruption.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
493. South America's New Militarism
- Author:
- Raúl Zibechi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- South American societies are militarizing as a result of the regional superpower's intervention, which is undoubtedly a crucial factor on the continent, but also as a consequence of the profound economic and political changes we have come to call neoliberalism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
- Political Geography:
- South America
494. A Strategy for Ending the Iraq War
- Author:
- Tom Hayden
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- In January 2005, a group of fifty peace activists from the Vietnam and Iraq eras issued a global appeal to end the war (online at http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/20996/). The appeal proposed undermining the pillars of war (public opinion, funding, troop recruitment, international allies) and building the pillars of peace and justice (an independent anti-war movement linked to justice issues, a progressive Democratic opposition, soldiers and families against the war, a global network to stop the US empire). This is an update on implementation of the strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
495. Breaking the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty) Stalemate: Japan Could Help
- Author:
- Anthony DiFilippo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Deterring attack is usually cited as the main motivation for states to keep or acquire nuclear weapons. Yet today's NPT stalemate involves both security and economic concerns. Nuclear and nonnuclear weapons states alike have associated nuclear-energy-generating capabilities with economic growth. By far the biggest problem that the NPT faces today is that nations have come to see and use it as a self-serving accord.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Israel
496. Fuelling Mistrust Between Iran and the United States
- Author:
- Roger Howard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Imagine your reaction if, during last November's presidential contest, the mullahs of Iran had suddenly launched a tirade of criticism against the American system of democracy and beamed their message onto our television sets and radios for all of us to hear: democracy in the United States, the mullahs might perhaps have claimed, is a corrupt process that is determined largely by the influence of the wealthiest donors, and a process that wholly fails to address the religious needs of a secular, materialist culture.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
497. Undermining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—It Didn't Start With the Bush Administration
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Most of the international community and arms control advocates here in the United States have correctly blamed the Bush administration for the failure of the recently-completed review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In the course of the four-week meeting of representatives of the 188 countries which have signed and ratified the treaty, the United States refused to uphold its previous arms control pledges, blocked consideration of the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, refused to rule out U.S. nuclear attacks against non-nuclear states, and demanded that Iran and North Korea—but not U.S. allies like Israel, Pakistan, and India—be singled out for UN sanctions for their nuclear programs. Thomas Graham, who served as a U.S. envoy to disarmament talks in the Clinton administration noted that the Bush administration's demands resulted in what appears to be "the most acute failure in the treaty's history."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, India, Israel, and Korea
498. The Me Too Club
- Author:
- Tad Daley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The "nuclear option" may have receded in the U.S. Senate for the time being. Unfortunately, it's still very much on the table for the two newest aspirants to the nuclear club. Not to mention those who already have their membership cards.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
499. Reflections on Vietnam and the Iraq War
- Author:
- Daniel Ellsberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- I'm often asked whether there aren't big differences between the Iraq War and Vietnam. And I'm always quick to say, of course, there are differences. In Iraq, it's a dry heat. And the language that none of our troops or diplomats speak is Arabic rather than Vietnamese.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Vietnam, and Arabia
500. The Iglesias Legacy and the IDB's Future
- Author:
- Nadia Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- After 17 years at the helm of Latin America's largest source of development financing, the President of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is stepping down. Enrique Iglesias is slated to pass the reins to his successor in September. Like the recent fight over the leadership position at the Organization of American States, this contest promises to be a long and arduous process of political negotiation. As the United States attempts to maintain its traditionally hegemonic role in Latin America, Brazil is more boldly gaining some of that ground. And with annual lending to Latin American countries surpassing $8 billion annually, the IDB has significant influence over the region's economies.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Brazil, South America, and Latin America