Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: International Relations

101. China-Global governance without hegemony

Author:: Pan Zhongyin
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pangoal Institution
Abstract:: Where is global economic governance heading? What will the future of global economic governance hold? These questions are on everyone’s lips. In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s foreign policy principle of ‘never seeking hegemony’, but this does not mean that China should disavow the role of international leadership. Indeed, it is now engaged in what might be called a non-hegemonic leadership, which is sure to be hugely significant in the future of global economic governance.
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, Hegemony, and Economy
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

102. The 2016 Failed Coup in Turkey: What Is the Impact on Turkish-African Relations?

Author:: Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The July 2016 failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government not only resulted in a dramatic upheaval in Turkey, it also had a significant impact on the structure of its international relations and its networks of influence abroad. The way this coup affected the political actors who shaped Turkish policy in Africa highlights the extent to which Fethullah Gülen’s movement – accused by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of having organised the coup- shaped those relations up to 2016. Today, Turkish diplomacy in Africa is undergoing a process of reconstruction, as it dismantles functional networks, and supports the new actors championed by Ankara. The destruction of what has been patiently established for 20 years and the creation of new channels of influence is a challenging task for Turkish diplomats and politicians who multiply their visits to Africa. In some countries, Turkish diplomacy sometimes faces difficulties in removing the Gülenist networks, as some are closely linked to high-ranking local leaders.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Fethullah Gülen
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

103. The Drums of Trade War

Author:: Yu Yongding
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: With Chinese President Xi Jinping willing to make some concessions to the US, the world may yet avoid a trade war. But the reason Sino-American relations have soured is the Trump administration's worldview, not external balances. BEIJING – Last month, US President Donald Trump’s administration fired the opening salvo in what is quickly shaping up to become a full-blown trade war. While trade friction has long been an issue in the Sino-American relationship, few expected such an escalation, not least because economists widely view trade wars as damaging to all parties. So how did we get to this point, and can we turn back before it’s too late? ...... According to the USTR report, the problem is that the policy tools the Chinese government is using to achieve the goals of Made in China 2025 “are largely unprecedented, as other WTO members do not use them.” Moreover, they “include a wide array of state intervention and support designed to promote the development of Chinese industry in large part by restricting, taking advantage of, discriminating against, or otherwise creating disadvantages for foreign enterprises and their technologies, products, and services.” Yet the report fails to identify those interventions, which is not surprising, given that the State Council has not yet specified the policy tools it will use. And while America’s grievances regarding IPR issues are understandable, they could be addressed through the WTO. The fact that the Trump administration has taken the approach it has suggests that it does not merely want to ensure that China complies with existing rules; it wants to prevent China from catching up to the US technologically. This is obviously not acceptable to China.
Topic:: International Relations, Trade Wars, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

104. European strategic autonomy: Policy Brief Going it alone?

Author:: Margriet Drent
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: With the boost that has been given to the EU’s defence policy, some of the St. Malo reﬂexes have reoccurred in Washington. Mostly, there are some misgivings in the United States about the exact meaning of ‘European strategic autonomy’, as it featured in the 2016 EU Global Strategy. But also in Europe, it is not clear what strategic autonomy means. In light of the increasing uncertainty among the EU and European NATO-members about the solidity of the American security guarantees, strategic autonomy gains a new quality. If Europe were forced ‘to go it alone’, what would that take, both in terms of conventional and nuclear capabilities? In her latest Policy Brief author Margriet Drent concludes that European countries face a dilemma: they have to simultaneously invest in their strategic autonomy and in keeping the United States committed to their security.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, European Union, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

105. How the New Cold War travelled North (Part II) Interaction between Norway and Russia

Author:: Julie Wilhelmsen and Kristian Lundby Gjerde
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This policy brief examines changing Russian and Norwegian approaches to each other in the period 2012–2016, and discusses how the “New Cold War” spread to the North. This is an intriguing question, since both parties had initially stated that, despite the overall worsening of Russia–West relations following the crises in Ukraine, the North should be protected as a space for peaceful interaction. To address this question, watching and tracking the changing patterns of Russian exercises and military modernization is not enough; understanding the rise in tensions requires studying the effects of the interactions underway between the parties in this region. Three interaction effects need to be taken into consideration in explaining why the tense relations following the conflict in Ukraine spread to the low-tension Northern theatre. In this, we stress the interactive dynamics that ensues when two parties start to view each other as threats, interpreting new moves by the other as expressions of hostile intent. Further, we explain the observed New Cold War “contamination” with reference to domestic policy agendas and practices of decision-making. On both the Norwegian and the Russian sides, the new military posturing in the North, now interpreted as part of a growing conflict, has emerged partly as a side-effect of implementing what actually were longstanding national goals.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Norway, and Arctic

106. Promoting Sustainable Connectivity in the Balkans and Black Sea Region

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The risk of a connectivity conflict becoming the next Great Game in the Balkans and Black Sea region is real. If, instead, countries in the region are to capitalize on their geography and history as a trading hub, all stakeholders need to invest in furthering political will, money, cooperation and trust. The Balkans and Black Sea Cooperation Forum (BBSF), convened in Athens in May 2018, is a noteworthy building block in this process.
Topic:: International Relations and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Balkans

107. Germany and European defence cooperation: A post-Atlantic turn?

Author:: Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Tensions in the transatlantic partnership are spurring the German debate on how to prepare for the possibility of a post-Atlantic Europe. Germany has renewed its focus on the EU’s security and defence policy. This includes long-term initiatives to improve European operational readiness, as well as recognition of the EU mutual assistance clause in the doctrine of the German armed forces. However, efforts by German politicians to convince the public of the need for a greater international engagement face difficulties as Germans see the threat as negligible and eye the military with suspicion. The challenge for Berlin remains to step up the ambition for European defence cooperation, while avoiding new fault lines among EU members.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Germany

108. Pension reform in Russia: A test of the regime’s resilience and citizens’ patience

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Kremlin has cast a cloud over the horizon for millions of Russian citizens. People do not perceive the forthcoming pension reform as a necessary measure for sustaining economic and social stability. Rather, it has ignited a collective sense of anger among the people that they have been cast adrift by the elite
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia

109. India and the geoeconomics of climate change: Global responsibility as strategic interest

Author:: Emma Hakala
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As climate change progresses, it will have impacts on global politics, creating both new vulnerabilities and opportunities. Geoeconomics provides a useful analytical framework for the political implications of climate change as it shifts the focus from military force to economic means of exerting power. This working paper looks at the geoeconomics of climate change in the case of India. It examines the ways in which India has used climate policies to gain leverage and contain threats regionally and globally. Due to its emerging power status and high vulnerability to climate impacts, India holds a key position in the global fight against climate change. The paper argues that India has incorporated geostrategic uses of climate change into a wider shift in its foreign policy. Globally, it has chosen a cooperative strategy to emphasise its responsibility through diplomacy and sustainable energy investments, contributing to its role as a global power and to its influence in partner countries. Yet a similar geoeconomic climate policy has not been applied in its regional relations. The Indian case shows how climate change can lead to both competitive and cooperative geostrategies.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: India

110. Complex Humanitarian Emergencies and Disaster Management in Bangladesh: the 2017 Rohingya Exodus

Author:: Alistair D. B. Cook and Foo Yen Ne
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The exposure to natural hazards has prompted Bangladesh to institutionalize disaster management and coordination. This report examines Bangladesh’s established disaster management structures and the role of key actors through reviewing existing literature from international organisations, academia, and think tanks, followed by interviews with key disaster management stakeholders in Bangladesh from the end of February to the beginning of March 2018. In analysing the response to the 2017 Rohingya Exodus, this report aims to identify lessons learnt and factors which may impede effective disaster management and coordination between different actors with some operating outside their traditional mandated area of natural hazards to govern a complex humanitarian emergency.
Topic:: International Relations and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Bangladesh

111. Resilience in the Face of Disruptions

Author:: NTS
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Human activities, technology and climate change drive changes to our environmental landscape and societal order. Marine microplastics arising from woeful human use of plastics threaten marine ecology. Excessive consumption of fossil fuels disrupts weather systems and consequently undermines food security. Unequal access between the “haves and have nots” aggravates food insecurity. Without meaningful intervention, annual deaths from food-borne diseases (FBDs) caused by anti-microbial resistant (AMR) bacteria will reach 10 million in 2050. Human displacement continues unabated across state lines as humanitarian crises require fresh responses. Ubiquitous use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) has created a new landscape where cyber-threats target both hardware and software and where truth has become its latest victim. Moreover, social media has been weaponized to breed intolerance. The Annual Conference of the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security (NTS) in Asia held in Singapore recently examined responses to these uncertainties, if not threats to humanity, arising from key disruptions. This report captures the responses and hopes touted by experts at the Conference with the view of providing policy makers and invested scholars interested in such developments with some recommendations towards building resilience within and across states.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Asia

112. Inadvertent Escalation and the Entanglement of Nuclear Command-and-Control Capabilities

Author:: James M. Acton
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief is based on “Escalation through Entanglement: How the Vulnerability of Command-and- Control Systems Raises the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War,” which appears in the summer 2018 issue of International Security.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

113. The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples and governments while also avoiding a direct clash with Saudi Arabia
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Turkey

114. Ukrainian Election Task Force—Exposing Foreign Interference in Ukraine’s Democracy

Author:: Ukrainian Election Task Force
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s persistent efforts to influence the domestic politics of his neighbors and countries well beyond Russia’s borders have posed enormous challenges in Europe and across the Atlantic. More than any other country, Ukraine has been the unwanted recipient of Moscow’s attention, particularly during the past five years. The Kremlin has sought to place a pliable client in command in Kyiv and block Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations, including by pressuring the previous Ukrainian leadership against signing. The March 2019 presidential election will be a pivotal event in Ukraine’s history
Topic:: International Relations, International Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:: Ukraine

115. China-Zambia Relations

Author:: Caesar Cheelo and Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030?
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: China and Zambia

116. The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU-27

Author:: Antonio Fernández Tomás
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: La Fundación Alternativas presenta un nuevo estudio: ¨The impact and consequences of Brexit on acquired rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU-27¨. Informe encargado y financiado por el Parlamento Europeo, ha sido elaborado por Antonio Fernández Tomás y Diego López Garrido.
Topic:: International Relations and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

117. The Libyan political agreement- Time for reconsideration

Author:: Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA)1 also known as the Skhirat Agreement has been bedeviled with significant deficiencies from its onset. In part, it was vouched for irrespective of the fact that necessary domestic support was not garnered pursuant to its approval - vital security sector actors missing at the negotiation table. This Policy Brief discusses how it has failed thus far and gives options for inclusive renegotiations given Libya is at a pivotal point with every action of the UNbacked Government of National Accord (GNA) key going forward in the country’s quest for sustainable peace and unity. The Agreement as it stands is largely not a panacea to any of Libya’s political and security predicaments with the battle against the Islamic State won in Sirte
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Libya

118. The US’ special relationships in Europe

Author:: Mikkel Runge Olesen and Matthew Hinds
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The election of Donald Trump as US president was met with considerable unease in Europe. This has not least been the case among those who, like the UK and Denmark, consider themselves among America’s closest allies. In the policy brief, Matthew Hinds and Mikkel Runge Olesen take stock of the US special relationships in Europe – large and small. In the policy brief they discuss both the classical “Special Relationship” between the US and the UK, as well as the US-Danish relationship, as an example of a small power that has chosen to give the relationship to the superpower premium priority. Hinds and Runge Olesen find that Trump may destabilize relations, but also that he may open up for new opportunities as well – especially for the UK.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Britain, America, and Europe

119. Combating Terrorism and Alleviating Human Suffering in Syria

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In this new Transition 2017 paper, Institute expert Andrew J. Tabler argues that Syria remains de facto partitioned, making the establishment of safe zones in non-Assad-controlled areas the Trump administration's most expedient course of action. Moreover, it would further Washington's cause to drive a wedge into the country's Russia-Iran alliance, and both isolate and pressure the Assad regime. If Washington's objectives in Syria are to defeat U.S.-designated terrorist groups and stem the outflow of refugees, President Bashar al-Assad is under no circumstances the right person to entrust with these missions. Simply in practical terms, he lacks the manpower to retake and hold the two-thirds of Syrian territory outside his control any time soon, despite having sufficient support from Russia and Iran to maintain control in large parts of the country. But more important, Assad is an avowed adversary of the West, undeserving of its cooperation.
Topic:: International Relations, Civil War, International Security, International Affairs, and Neoimperialism
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Iran, and Syria

120. Rebuilding Alliances and Countering Threats in the Gulf

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Trump administration has an opportunity to reset, tighten, and maximize America's strategic relations with the Gulf states. For the United States, expanded security cooperation and coordination could be a force multiplier in campaigns to achieve key policy goals, such as countering Iran's destabilizing policies and defeating the Islamic State. Gulf leaders have expressed optimism over the new administration's gestures, despite its "America First" rhetoric. But the administration also faces challenges, including those brought about by its own emphasis on "radical Islamic terrorism." This two-part Transition 2017 paper, featuring contributions by Gulf experts Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson, navigates the complex U.S.-Gulf relationship. The first essay provides an overview of its basic tenets, stressing the importance of rapport to bilateral ties and discussing key policy priorities. The second essay narrows the focus to the Washington-Riyadh link, the most important U.S. tie with the conservative Gulf. It analyzes differences in viewpoint, policy options, and some anticipated Saudi responses on the core issues of oil, terrorism, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Gulf allies, and the Sunni bloc.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

121. Yet Another War in Shingal: The Sword of Damocles

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: On 3 March, clashes erupted between the PKK-linked forces and the KDP’s Rojava Peshmerga near Khanasor in the district of Shingal. These events now more than ever highlight the need for a negotiated compromise between the KRG and the PKK; and for the international community to actively intervene.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: Middle East

122. Iraq and Libya: common challenges for the years ahead

Author:: Irene Costantini
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Iraq and Libya are facing similar challenges: addressing the hurdles of socio-economic recovery in areas liberated from the Islamic State (IS); facing a fiscal crisis in the midst of continuous political tensions; and striking a power balance between central and local authorities, serving the interests of the people.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Middle East

123. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

124. China-Africa Trade Developments and Impacts: Case of China-Zambia Relations

Author:: Caesar Cheelo, Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso, and Zhun Che
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030? This study sought to undertake a critical comparative assessment of the trade (and other underpinning socioeconomic) developments in China, Africa and Zambia, with a view to understanding their impetus as well as their consequences, both positive and negative, for China- Africa and China -Zambia ties. It offers unique perspectives and understanding about China-Africa and China-Zambia relations. It takes a look at the history and present-day China- Africa and China-Zambia relations, considering the social and cultural ties that have defined cooperation as well as the political and diplomatic relations that have been forged over time. It unravels the trade and development implications of these relations for Zambia, Africa and China.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

125. Expanded ambitions, shrinking achievements: How China sees the global order

Author:: François Godement
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Xi Jinping took a bold stance at this year's Davos summit, claiming that China could be the leader and protector of global free trade. However, he fell short of pronouncing the same commitment to the international order. • While China finds little to criticise in globalisation, which has fuelled its rapid economic rise, it has an uneasy relationship with the international order, picking and choosing what parts of it to engage with. • China's governance model at home is fundamentally at odds with the liberal international order. Whether in climate talks, international arbitrations, or on the topic of open markets, China resists any parts of the order that infringe on its sovereignty. • Facing an increasingly interest-driven China, and a US in retreat from the international order, the EU must stand by its values if it wants to protect them. Faced with Donald Trump, Xi has sent a clear message about his country's commitment to internationalism. The EU should hold China to its word on this.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

126. Peripheral Vision: How Europe can help preserve Tunisia’s fragile democracy

Author:: Hamza Meddeb
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Six years since the revolution, the success of democracy in Tunisia depends on those parts of the country where the popular uprising began: its ‘periphery’, whose regions lag far behind the country’s economically more developed coast. Tunisia’s periphery regions suffer from weak economic growth and high levels of poverty and unemployment – a legacy of decades of underinvestment. Regional conflict, terrorism and organised crime have led the government to crack down on security threats in the periphery regions. This has disrupted the informal and illegal economic networks on which much of the population relies and caused it to lose faith in the government. Tunisia has enjoyed extensive support from international partners since 2011 – money is not the problem. Instead, the country must strengthen its regional governance and address fragmentation at the heart of government. Europeans can radically alter the terms of debate by offering Tunisia membership of the European Economic Area, galvanising change in support of its journey towards democracy and stability.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe

127. After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya

Author:: Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

128. The Gulf: An unprecedented crisis and major repercussions

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, in marked succession, cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Within a matter of hours, it became clear that this was not simply a move to sever ties, but a plan for a full embargo, an unprecedented step at a time of peace between these nations. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain blocked flights to Qatar, closed land and sea borders, and ordered Qatari citizens out of their countries while calling on their own nationals to leave Qatar. The same day, Maldives, Mauritius (though it later denied the news), the Libyan Tobruk-based government (which is not recognised internationally), and the Yemeni government based in Riyadh followed suit and cut ties with Qatar, unable to resist Saudi pressure. The next day, Jordan downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar and revoked the licence of Al Jazeera’s bureau in Amman, while Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Mauritius, in an official statement, denied it had cut ties, raising questions of whether some party took the initiative on behalf of the Mauritian government. The actions taken at dawn on 5 June were the culmination of an unprecedented, anti-Qatar media blitz initiated by Emirati, Saudi, Bahraini and Egyptian media on the evening of 23 May. The campaign intensified until it assumed official imprimatur with the decision to cut ties and blockade Qatar. What, then, is happening to relations between countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? After Gulf leaders came together in a scene of friendship, cooperation and solidarity during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, why are relations between three GCC states and Qatar deteriorating so rapidly and in such unprecedented fashion? Was there an immediate cause that spurred Saudi Arabia and its partners to take this stance, or were these actions planned in advance? Is this simply a fleeting crisis in relations between GCC states, or could the break persist?
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

129. The Haftar-Sarraj Rapprochement and Prospects for a Resolution of the Libyan Crisis

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Abstract The commander of Operation Dignity, Khalifa Haftar, shocked supporters even more than his opponents when he agreed to meet the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in Abu Dhabi on 2 May 2017, having previously refused to recognise him. This about-face may be attributable to the acquiescence of Haftar’s regional allies to direct international pressure. Reactions to the rapprochement between al-Sarraj and Haftar varied across the eastern and western fronts. Khalifa Haftar’s status in the east precludes serious opposition to his decisions, while in the western region a substantial segment of the population blessed the meeting in hopes that a détente would stop the deterioration of the security and economic situation. In contrast, western political and military factions were incensed, and some responded violently. Haftar’s acceptance of consensual agreement and reconciliation clearly grows out the waning possibility of assuming control of the country through decisive military action. From his standpoint, it therefore makes sense to attempt to impose his conditions through negotiations, which means the Skhirat agreement could collapse or undergo radical revisions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Libya

130. Beyond NORAD and Modernization to North American Defence Evolution

Author:: Andrea Charron and James Fergusson
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: While most attention on NORAD and North American defence cooperation is focused on the modernization of the North Warning System (NWS), significant developments have occurred that suggest modernization will be accompanied by significant evolutionary changes to the Command. The new threat environment, centered upon Russian behaviour in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria, a new Russian strategic doctrine, and a new generation of advanced Russian long-range cruise missiles dictate not only layered, multi-sensor early warning system, but also changes in NORAD command arrangements. In addition, the maritime component of the cruise missile threat, alongside continuing concerns of terrorists employing freighters as cruise missile platforms, raise the question whether NORAD should evolve into a binational air-maritime defence command. These considerations are central to the ongoing Evolution of North American Defence (EVONAD) study, emanating from the Canada-US Permanent Joint Board on Defence, under the lead of NORAD, in collaboration with the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) and US Northern Command (the tri-command structure). The final result is difficult to predict. However, it is clear that both modernization and evolution will be driven by the militaries engaged, with civilian authorities guiding the process, and the public and Canadian government not paying attention.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: Canada

131. Japan: Eternal Geography, Varied Responses

Author:: Matt Preston
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Korean Peninsula has dominated the news out of Asia as of late. From assassinations reminiscent of James Bond villains and ballistic missiles aimed at U.S. bases in Japan, to Chinese anger over advanced missile defence systems, and harsher than ever sanctions by China on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRIK), there is no shortage of headlines. But below the radar, some more important events have been taking place across the Tsushima Strait. On March 4, Japan’s Liberal Democrat Party approved a rule change that would allow the party’s president to continue for a third term. This means that should the LDP win another election, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could serve until 2021, making him the longest-serving Japanese prime minister in the postwar era.1 Upon the rule’s approval, Abe announced: “It’s the historic mission of the LDP, which has held up the backbone of Japan throughout the postwar period, to lead a specific debate toward a proposal to amend the constitution.” To Abe and the conservative faction he heads within the LDP, that largely means repealing Article 9 — the ‘no war’ clause. Simultaneously, controversy has arisen over a potential conflict of interest story regarding the sale of land far below market value to a nationalistic primary school that originally named Abe’s wife, Akie, as honourary principal.2
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Japan

132. Staying Ahead of Trump on Security Requires a Holistic Review of Canadian National Security

Author:: Alan Stephenson
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: It is time for the Canadian government to conduct a holistic review of Canada’s national security complex. The Defence Policy Review is floundering as a consequence of an uncooperative world, Canada’s domestic security institutions require legislative empowerment, and the election of Donald Trump has placed increased pressure on Canadian security and defence. Securing the U.S.’s northern border is a no-fail mission for Canada as peace and prosperity depend upon it. However, this must be done within Canadian security norms and values. Only a ground-up examination of the Canadian national security system will elicit a comprehensive understanding of the current deficiencies that will allow focused alignment of government objectives, policies and public funds. Crisis management requires a strategic plan with clear objectives from which to conduct concurrent and coordinated activities. The Trudeau government has the team in place; now, it needs a new National Security Policy statement to assist in “lead turning” an unconventional U.S. administration steadfast in its stance over national security.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Immigration
Political Geography:: America and Canada

133. Russian Hybrid Warefare: A Study in Disinformation

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The basic tenet of the Russian disinformation strategy is the claim that all news is constructed and therefore contested. In the best postmodern tradition they claim there is no ‘objective news’ – only different, rivalling interpretations which purport to show different aspects of what may be called ‘reality’. And what the Russian media outlets present are merely possible explanations which serve as alternatives to the stories offered by Western media. It is a strategy which is both cunning and elegant as it preys on the enlightenment tradition and on the vulnerabilities of liberal democratic media. The Russian authorities seem to believe that (dis-) information campaigns hold great prospects. In a 2017 article, the Russian Chief of Staff informed the public about the Russian military thinking on the topic of ‘war’ and on the role of the non-military or "non-kinetic" in this. It seems premature to conclude that this thinking sees the possibility of war as an exclusively non-kinetic activity – this at least was not announced in the article – but the development points strongly in this direction and we should therefore expect to see an increased Russian focus on (dis-) information campaigns designed to bring well-defined outcomes. There will not be any easy or fix-it-all solutions to this development. Rather, liberal democracies, especially vulnerable as a result of their free media culture, should prepare themselves for a long-term commitment to countering disinformation and to building up cognitive resilience to ensure that the former has minimal effect.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia

134. “Russian World”: Russia’s Policy towards its Diaspora

Author:: Mikhaïl Souslov
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: This paper traces the evolution of the diaspora policies and visions from the early 1990s to the present, and argues that the understanding of Russian “compatriots abroad” has never been the same; rather, it travelled a long road from revanchist irredentism of the red-brown opposition in the 1990s, to the moderately liberal pragmatism of the early 2000s, to the confrontational instrumentalization of Russian “compatriots” as a lever of Russia’s soft power in the late 2000s, and, finally, back to the even more confrontational, irredentist and isolationist visions after the Ukrainian crisis of 2014.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, International Affairs, and Diaspora
Political Geography:: Russia

135. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the New Regional Geopolitics

Author:: Zahid Hussain
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The CPEC is a nodal part of China’s larger Belt and Road Initiative that envisages connecting China to Europe, the Middle East and Africa. As part of the project, Pakistan welcomes investments worth tens of billions of dollars for infrastructure and power sector development at a time when it desperately needs foreign investment to boost its fledgling economy. The addition of an expected 10,000 MW of electricity to the national grid by end 2018 will help overcome energy shortages and give a major boost to the economy. Similarly, the development of roads and other transport infrastructure will also improve connectivity inside the country as well with other neighboring countries in the future. The connectivity part of the project could actually become a game changer for Pakistan
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and China

136. Minsk-Beijing: What Kind of Strategic Partnership?

Author:: Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Since they signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” agreement in 2013, military-industrial cooperation has intensified, thereby substantiating Belarusian hopes for closer ties with China, which are meant to counterbalance Minsk’s complex relations with Moscow and Brussels. In the eyes of its Chinese partners, however, Belarus seems to enjoy only limited appeal compared with other central and eastern European (CEE) countries, which are more advanced on the road to economic transformation and better integrated into the global system
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

137. Reforming Ukrainian Defense: No Shortage of Challenges

Author:: Isabelle Facon
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Three years after the Euromaidan protests and as the war in the east continues, the government has pursued significant military reforms. Kiev has published new strategic documents which reflect the complexity of the challenges facing Ukrainian national security. Pressure from NATO comes in addition to pressure from civil society, which manifests itself in numerous ways. Nonetheless, military reform in Ukraine is still suffering from a number of constraints related to the amount of resources available, resistance on the part of various national players and conflicts between different institutions.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Ukraine

138. Japan's Security Policy in Africa: The Dawn of a Strategic Approach?

Author:: Celine Pajon
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: In recent years, Japan's security contribution in Africa rose with the unprecedented participation of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in an international counter-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden, the subsequent build-up of its first overseas military base in Djibouti, and the SDF's longest participation in United Nations Peace-Keeping Operations (UNPKO), in South Sudan (2012-May 2017). This increased security contribution has been driven by a need to react to various events, such as the rising Chinese presence in Africa and the increase in terrorist attacks and piracy. It is also a means of reassuring a risk-averse business sector and encouraging it to step up its investment in Africa. Finally, it is about demonstrating Japan's identity as a "proactive contributor to peace", and responsible shareholder in international security. While media attention is drawn to the Japanese SDF presence on the ground and at sea, the bulk of Japan's security contribution to Africa remains low-key, mostly in the form of financial contributions and capacity-building assistance, and is very often channeled through or in partnership with multilateral institutions or a third country, such as France. This said, Africa is now being associated more tightly with Japan's strategic core interests. Terrorist attacks on the continent are posing a direct risk to Japanese nationals. Threats to the security of vital maritime shipping routes transiting from the Middle East to the Indian Ocean are also directly undermining Tokyo's interests. The inclusion of Africa in the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy" demonstrates Japan's willingness to adopt a more strategic approach to Africa.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Japan

139. New Order for Old Triangles? The Russia-China-India Matrix

Author:: Bobo Lo
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The influence these great powers exert, on themselves and others, is uneven and difficult to predict. Alongside a public consensus on a “democratic world order”, there are significant differences of perspective and sometimes conflicting interests. It is far from clear whether the Russia-China-India matrix can form the basis of an emerging network of cooperation, or whether its contradictions foreshadow an increasingly problematic engagement.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and India

140. What do 'The People' (Still) Want? Conceptions of Democracy. Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 1

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: EU policy towards its Southern Neighbour- hood aims to ensure the security of Member States and is underpinned by an assumption of a shared interest in democracy, security, and prosperity through economic liberalisation. It sees the main way of achieving these aims as promoting Western-style liberal democracy as a political system capable of providing peace and stability. Evidence from public opinion survey research shows this ambition is supported by citizens of Arab countries, where public opinion polls for over a decade report strong support for democracy. However, these citizens do not share the EU’s procedural conception of democracy, a conception in which civil and political rights are decoupled from – and prioritised over – social and economic rights. The Arab Transformations survey carried out in 2014 in six Arab states (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq) suggests few people demanded this brand of democracy. Furthermore, most people thought the EU has not done a good job of supporting transitions to democracy, nor did they have much appetite for EU involvement in the domestic politics of their countries.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, International Affairs, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

141. A “Modest Proposal” To End The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Trump Should Threaten Beijing With A Nuclearized Taiwan

Author:: Steven Holloway
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: As the North Korean nuclear crisis escalates, the media is filled with an endless rehashing of the old inutile options. Typically articles in Globe and Mail and others will restate all the traditional options from multilateral diplomacy to tougher sanctions to unilateral US military action but then recount the long acknowledged problems with each option. This paper suggests a simple but revolutionary diplomatic move. It agrees with the many commentators who have said that China is the only actor with the leverage to effectively halt or even roll back Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile program (or even to attempt regime change.) But unlike some of these analyses, I will argue that so far China has not had sufficient motivation to fully exercise its leverage on North Korea. Therefore the key is to develop a threat plausible enough to provide that motivation. If the US is to face a nuclear deterrent from North Korea, then China should face a similar deterrent and threat from Taiwan.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

142. Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense

Author:: Rebecca Slayton
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Bottom Lines: Creating unnecessary vulnerabilities. Making offensive cyber operations a national priority can increase instabilities in international relations and worsen national vulnerabilities to attack. But because the skills needed for offense and defense are similar, military offensive readiness can be maintained by focusing on defensive operations that make the world safer, rather than on offensive operations. Managing complexity. The ease of both offense and defense increases as organizational skills and capability in managing complex technology improve; it declines as the complexity of cyber operations rises. What appears to be offensive advantage is primarily a result of the offense’s relatively simple goals and the defense’s poor management. Assessing kinetic effects. It is often more expensive for the offense to achieve kinetic effects—for instance, sabotaging machinery—than for the defense to prevent them. An empirical analysis of the Stuxnet cyberattacks on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities shows that Stuxnet likely cost the offense more than the defense and was relatively ineffective.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, Nuclear Power, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Middle East and North America

143. Leading Peace Operations: Turkey’s Experience

Author:: Uğur Gungor
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:: This policy brief focuses on Turkey’s leadership in peace operations in Somalia (UNOSOM II) and Afghanistan (ISAF II and VII). It explains the events leading to the establishment of these operations, provides a brief history, and explores their mission in order to provide a better understanding of Turkey’s leadership and the operations themselves. Then, the brief examines the organization and activities of these operations under Turkey’s leadership. This brief also aims at analyzing the significance of Turkey’s leadership.
Topic:: International Relations and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Turkey

144. Dispelling the Myth that Israel Is the Largest Beneficiary of US Military Aid

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many American detractors of Israel begin by citing that Israel receives the lion’s share of US military aid. The very suggestion conjures the demon of an all-powerful Israel lobby that has turned the US Congress into its pawn. But these figures, while reflecting official direct US military aid, are almost meaningless in comparison to the real costs and benefits of US military aid – above all, American boots on the ground. In reality, Israel receives only a small fraction of American military aid, and most of that was spent in the US to the benefit of the American economy
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Israel

145. Governance, Accountability, and Security in Nigeria

Author:: Oluwakemi Okenyodo
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As in much of Africa, the vast majority of security threats facing Nigeria are internal, often involving irregular forces such as insurgents, criminal gangs, and violent religious extremists. Effectively combating such threats requires cooperation from local communities—cooperation limited by low levels of trust in security forces who often have reputations for corruption, heavy-handedness, and politicization. Tackling modern security threats, then, is directly tied with improving the governance and oversight of the security sector, especially the police. Key paths forward include clarifying the structure of command and oversight, strengthening merit-based hiring and promotion processes, and better regulating private and voluntary security providers.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:: Nigeria

146. Survival of the fittest: Trump’s not-so-simple nationalism

Author:: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
Topic:: International Relations, Nationalism, International Affairs, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: America and Global Focus

147. Election Hacking in Democracies: The example of the U.S. 2016 elections

Author:: Mika Aaltola and Mariita Mattiisen
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The US, as a highly digitalized state, depends on different cyber platforms for election campaigning, political discussions, forming popular opinions, and – in some cases – the voting process itself. Geopolitically motivated election hacking can aim to influence the direction of foreign policy debates, to promote/demote candidate(s), and to instigate disruptions, suspicions, and distrust towards the election process or the democratic system. The strategic aim to lower democratic appeal and increase the attraction of autocratic "stability”. A state sponsor of hacking can demonstrate that it has sophisticated cyber capabilities, thereby promoting its own major power standing. Even if its efforts raise suspicions, it gains visibility, as its efforts are discussed in the media and it manages to insert itself into the election discussions. The state sponsor can subtly promote the images of its own type of political system as being comparatively more resilient and stable than the US democratic system. The relative success of the election hacking targeting the US might motivate scaling up the intensity and scope of similar operations in future democratic elections. At a minimum, the election hacking incidents point to a scenario that has to be taken seriously.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: America

148. Brexit's Impact on the EU Institutions: Immediate implications and possibilities for reform

Author:: Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The direct implications of Brexit for the EU’s political system will be less significant than the indirect consequences, opening up possibilities for reform. The treaty rules on a qualified majority in the Council might need to be reconsidered due to Brexit, which will also lead to a major reshuffle of the EU’s critical political groups in the European parliament after the 2019 EP elections. The political pressure to consolidate the EMU in terms of strengthening its governance and its own fiscal capacity may grow as a part of the general reform process following on from Brexit. If the treaties are reopened, principled amendments to the institutions and decision-making of the common foreign and security policy as well as further steps within the common security and defence policy are very likely to occur. Any internal reform project shouldn’t compromise the unity and coherence of the EU any further, however, as it is currently highly exposed to both internal and external pressures.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

149. European defence core groups

Author:: Margriet Drent, Anne Bakker, and Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The why, what & how of permanent structured cooperation The deteriorating security situation around Europe and the burgeoning messages from Washington that Europe has to take more responsibility for its own security call for a step change in European defence cooperation. So far, progress has been too slow. This policy brief argues that permanent structured cooperation (Pesco) offers the option to take a more ambitious and more productive route by member states willing to move forward more quickly, set more demanding objectives and commit themselves more strongly. This would end the well-known ‘voluntary basis’ which has often been used as an excuse for doing little or nothing at all.
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, International Security, International Affairs, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: America and European Union

150. EU trade diplomacy and the cold peace in cross-Strait relations

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Today’s uncertainty in cross-Strait relations is not without consequence for third parties that maintain ties with both China and Taiwan. To what extent does (and should) the situation also impact on EU’s trade diplomacy with both sides? This policy brief argues that under today’s circumstances, the cold peace in cross-Strait relations is reason to tread carefully — and to stay on course. The May 2016 inauguration of the Taiwanese government led by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Tsai Ing-wen placed a big question mark over the future of cross-Strait relations. Within weeks, Beijing had unilaterally imposed a freeze on (semi-)official talks until the new Taiwanese President acknowledges the so-called 1992 Consensus. While confirming its ‘one China’ policy, the EU may contribute to the stability of cross-Strait relations by being a partner in China’s economic reform and by negotiating EU–China and EU–Taiwan investment agreements in parallel. In this policy brief author Maaike Okano-Heijmans builds on discussions during the 13th Symposium on ‘Sino–EU Relations and the Taiwan Question’, which was held in Shanghai from 9–11 October 2016 and in Taipei from 12–14 October 2016. These second-track dialogues were supported by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and European Union

151. Defence industrial policy in Belgium and the Netherlands

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium and the Netherlands work closely together in defence. Both countries for example have a combined naval command; they also have single schools and maintenance facilities for their M-frigates and minehunters. Yet, the Belgian and Dutch defence industries are quite different. This report, issued by the Armaments Industry European Research Group (Ares), compares the defence industrial policies of both countries. Clingendael senior research fellow Dick Zandee has contributed to the report by writing the sections on the Netherlands.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Belgium and Netherlands

152. Major developments in the US and China and US-China Relations Amidst Turmoil in the International Order (US-China Project)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

153. Sub-project I. Domestic factors influencing US foreign policy (US Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: With President Obama’s second term coming to an end, 2016 will mark a major turning point for US politics and foreign policy. Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate since the 2014 mid-term elections have made the Obama administration a “lame duck” but, with no concerns about re-election, the administration is now using its “free hand” to issue executive orders and exercise presidential authority for the sake of “legacy building” through, say, revisions to the Immigration Act and normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

154. Sub-project II: China’s Domestic Situation and Foreign Policy (China Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Among the most significant variables defining trends in the international order and the international environment surrounding Japan are domestic circumstances in China and its foreign policies prescribed by them. China ranks highest among the emerging powers that have rapidly increased their presence within the international community over a short period and is, from Japan’s standpoint, simultaneously a real threat to Japanese security in the East China Sea and Japan’s largest trading partner.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

155. A Few Words on Real Russia

Author:: Yan Vaslavsky
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Rethinking Russia
Abstract:: Vladimir Putin delivered his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly at St. George’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace on December 1. The state-of-the- nation address is regarded as a major speech over a 12-month period. It usually recounts the progress and outlines national priorities and the development agenda for the near future. This format is not unique1, but it tends to command attention of the general public at home and abroad as well as of parliamentarians to whom, judging by its very name, it is addressed.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Global Focus

156. The Russian Gambit In Syria

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Syria

157. Israel’s conflicting interests in the Syrian War

Author:: Halle Malmvig
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Senior researcher Helle Malmvig explores Israels’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. Israel’s activities in Syria have not drawn much attention due to Israel’s official policy of neutrality. Yet, over the last couple of years, Israel has stepped up its operations in Syria, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah assets and providing quiet assistance to the rebels.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Israel and Syria

158. The Catch-22 in Nineveh: The Regional Security Complex Dynamics between Turkey and Iran

Author:: Tomáš Kaválek and Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This paper argues that the future political stability of Nineveh depends on a two-level normalisation. A potential agreement between competing local actors, such as Baghdad and Erbil, is not the only necessary condition to stabilise the area. It also requires that Turkey and Iran decide to desecuritise Nineveh to the extent that it ceases to play the role of a buffer zone in the Middle East regional security complex. This argument is underpinned by the close examination of Turkey’s and Iran’s involvement together with their respective local allies in Nineveh in the post-2014 period. Developments referring to the cases of Bashiqa, Shingal, Tal Afar, as well as activities in favour or against Mosul leaders’ post-Islamic State (IS) vision illustrate that Nineveh’s securitisation has transcended Iraq’s borders. All in all, Turkey and Iran are vying for greater influence in Nineveh, or at least attempting to ensure that it will not become a satellite area of a competing power. Partly through their direct diplomatic and military engagement, but most importantly through their military and economic support to their local allies, the two regional powers pursue their security and diplomatic goals. At the same time, their involvement in the area has compounded the friction between local actors. Accordingly, the paper argues that in order to avoid greater polarisation in Nineveh and prepare the ground for constructive negotiations in the post-IS environment, Turkey and Iran should work on institutionalising their relationship beyond trade. Working together on issues of security between them, but also specifically in Nineveh, would improve trust and confidence in their relationship and help overcome the catch-22.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Turkey

159. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?

Author:: Zachary Gallant
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

160. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue

Author:: Hawraman Ali
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Kurdistan

161. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
Political Geography:: Turkey

162. State-building in a Fragmented Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:: Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The roadmap to independence starts from home and ends at home. A fragmented and unstable Kurdistan Region is neither good for the stability of the Kurdistan Region nor for Iraq or the rest of the Middle East. Institutionalisation of national unity and promotion of good governance are a key priority in every country of the Middle East, and even more so for an emerging one like the Kurdistan Region.
Topic:: International Relations and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East

163. The Battle for Mosul; Pre and Post ‘Liberation’ Planning

Author:: Dylan O’Driscoll
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: There is the opportunity for the rebirth of Mosul and Nineveh, as well as for Iraq, but without a valid plan in place for the liberation of Mosul, that includes the formation of political agreements and huge post-conflict efforts of reconstruction, reconciliation and de-radicalisation, it will be a stillbirth rather than the beginning of a new and promising life.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

164. Averting an Economic Meltdown in the KRI: Aligning Political Objectives with Economic Necessities

Author:: Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: This report is a contribution to the public debate in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) about crucial aspects of the current economic crisis and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) immediate response. In addition, it looks at the impact of four different policy options, such as a.) independence b.) rapprochement with Baghdad c.) macro-financing from International Stakeholders and d.) macro-financial assistance from Regional Stakeholders, may have in averting an economic meltdown in the short-term, on the assumption that the oil prices will remain suppressed for the foreseeable future. This report argues that it is only when the economic meltdown is averted in the short-term that the KRG will be able to proceed with deep structural reforms in the public sector and start working on the diversification of the economy.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

165. Time for a Radical Rethink. Full report on the MERI Economic Forum 2016

Author:: MERI
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: The MERI Economic Forum 2016 is the first of its kind to be held in Iraq or the Kurdistan Region. Iraq and the KRI, at the time of the forum in April 2016, were in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis and searching for ways to move away from the rentier-state economic model to restructure and grow the economy.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

166. Heavy Metal Diplomacy: Russia’s Political Use of its Military in Europe since 2014

Author:: Mark Galeotti
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Since 2014, Russia has mounted an extensive, aggressive, and multi-platform attempt to use its military and the threat of force as instruments of coercive diplomacy, intended to divide, distract, and deter Europe from challenging Russia’s activities in its immediate neighbourhood. The main elements are threats of potential military action, wargames which pointedly simulate such operations, the deployment of combat units in ways which also convey a political message, and intrusions close to and into European airspace, waters and even territory. The actual impact of these policies is varied, sometimes counter-productive, and they depend on coordination with other means of diplomacy and influence. But they have nonetheless contributed to a fragmentation of unity within both NATO and the European Union. ‘Heavy metal diplomacy’ is likely to continue for the immediate future. This requires a sharper sense on the part of the EU and its member states of what is a truly military move and what is political, a refusal to rise to the bait, and yet a display of convincing unity and cross-platform capacity when a response is required.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia

167. EU differentiation and the push for peace in Israel-Palestine

Author:: Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The adoption and streamlining of differentiation measures represents a unique and effective European contribution towards Israeli-Palestinian peace at a time in which the Middle East Peace Process in its current configuration has failed. Differentiation disincentives Israel’s illegal acquisition of territory and re-affirms the territorial basis of a two-state solution. It also feeds an Israeli debate over national priorities by framing the negative consequences that Israel will face in its bilateral relations if it continues its annexation of Palestinian territory. Despite Israeli efforts to erode consensus within the EU, differentiation continues to receive broad support among member states. EU officials must allow the correct, full, and effective implementation of existing legislation and policy positions relating to Israeli settlements European entities engaging in financial activity with Israeli settlements – even indirectly – could face serious legal, financial and reputational risks. The EU and its member states should offer more advice on the consequences of doing business with settlement-related entities.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Israel

168. Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

169. A Canadian Agenda for the USA: Obama and Beyond

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can use this week’s Washington Summit to advance Canadian interests with the Obama Administration. Successful outcomes in Washington will also help to set both the agenda and right mood for the upcoming North American Leaders Summit and, next January, for opening discussions with the next U.S. Administration. A Canadian action agenda is outlined below followed by background and historical analysis. Specific initiatives are grouped in four baskets: Security; Trade and Economic; Climate and the North; and Getting It Done.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

170. A Primer to the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS)

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: On Wednesday, June 29th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will host US President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto for the tenth North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). All three leaders want this meeting to succeed. For President Obama, it will advance his climate agenda continentally and help to cement his legacy in managing good neighbourhood relations. Climate also rates high in President Peña Nieto’s agenda, along with improving access for Mexican goods and mobility for Mexicans within North America. In terms of Canada-Mexico relations, President Peña Nieto expects Prime Minister Trudeau to announce the lifting of the obnoxious Canadian visa requirement. For Prime Minister Trudeau, making his debut as host of a multilateral summit, it is another demonstration that ‘Canada is back’. He must reset the Mexican relationship by announcing the long-promised lifting of the visa. He will get to know Enrique Peña Nieto better (they met briefly at November’s G20 summit and they were friendly ‘rivals’ for ‘APEC ‘hottie’ at the subsequent Manila summit). The summit represents another opportunity for ‘face-time’ with Barack Obama with whom he has quickly established a strong personal friendship and to reciprocate the hospitality of the White House meetings and state dinner in March. The North American summit comes within a week of the Brexit referendum. It will offer an opportunity for the three leaders to demonstrate a different kind of continental integration – less centralized, less bureaucratic – but still successful in mutually advancing economic prosperity that reinforces the sovereignty of each member.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

171. A Way Ahead With Russia

Author:: Chris Westdal
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada and Russia are on speaking terms again. Our government has abandoned Stephen Harper’s policy of vocal disdain and the attempted isolation of Russia. We stand against Russian “interference” in Ukraine but, in the words of Global Affairs Minister, Stephane Dion, “the more we disagree, the more we have to discuss.” This paper describes the setting of Canada-Russia re-engagement in terms of current tension in East-West, NATO-Russia relations and of heightened Canadian foreign policy aspiration; rehearses the case for earnest, long-term Western and Canadian engagement, with investment of senior attention and talent; cautions that, though a bit of spring has sprung, there is a lot of ice to thaw, as bilateral sanctions are likely to be lifted only in step with allies and the implementation, halting at best, of the Minsk peace plan; assesses Russia’s vulnerabilities and the record of its interventions in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria; recommends active Canadian support, by all means, for Ukrainian-Russian reconciliation and for a better fence, a “mending wall” between Russia and NATO; and suggests formats and first steps toward the normalization of bilateral and multilateral relations with our Arctic neighbour.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Canada

172. Canada and Saudi Arabia: A deeply flawed but necessary partnership

Author:: Thomas Juneau
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The proposed $15 billion sale of light armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia has brought significant attention – mostly negative – to Canada’s partnership with the Arabian Peninsula kingdom. Much of this criticism is valid: the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia is abysmal, and Canada and its allies incur costs by being associated with Riyadh’s poor foreign policy choices. But to stop the analysis here and call for the cancelling of the deal fails to take into account the strategic rationale underlying the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Despite its many flaws, the partnership between Saudi Arabia and West, and therefore Canada, remains necessary; rejecting it and turning Saudi Arabia into a rival would make things worse. An important implication is that the best way forward with regards to the LAV deal is to collectively hold our nose, uphold the agreement, and move on.
Topic:: International Relations and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Canada and Saudi Arabia

173. Clinton or Trump: Canada’s Energy Relations with the US

Author:: Colin Robertson
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Energy, the environment, and climate change will figure prominently in Canada-US relations after January 20, 2017. The environmental movement will continue to press for ‘environmental justice’ –which means different things to different groups - in alignment with allies, especially indigenous peoples. Regardless of whether it is a Clinton or Trump presidency, Canadian leadership - provincial, federal, and private sector - must pro-actively advance our interests with Congress, the Administration and its agencies, and with state governments. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump plan to spend a lot of money on infrastructure, including that related to energy. US business likes this idea. A majority of Republicans and Democrats, in both the Senate and House, as well as governors, would like more money devoted to infrastructure. Again, there will be opportunities for collaboration, improving North America’s relative competitiveness. Trade figured prominently throughout the campaign with Hillary Clinton stating that she would not accept the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in its current form and would appoint a ‘Trade Prosecutor’. Donald Trump has declared he will “tear up” the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and not sign the TPP. Regardless of who becomes president, we can expect more US protectionist trade action whether aimed directly at Canada - levies on softwood lumber are coming soon - or indirectly, as we recently experienced on aluminum when the US took aim at China.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Canada

174. The Russian Reality Check on Turkey's Gas Hub Hopes

Author:: Morena Skalamera
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: On Nov 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet after it veered into its airspace for 17 seconds. On December 13, a Russian ship fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel in the Aegean Sea. Bilateral tensions, with overt military dimensions, have seemed to quickly replace the goodwill that characterized relations only a year ago. Over the past few weeks, experts and observers have debated whether this incident will jeopardize deep Turkish-Russian energy cooperation—and whether newfound tensions between Moscow and Ankara will thwart Turkey’s ambition to transform itself into an energy hub. A closer look suggests grounds for both optimism and pessimism. Given the deep interests of both parties in continuing energy cooperation, and the mutual nature of the dependency, tensions over Syria are unlikely to adversely impact energy cooperation in a fundamental way. Turkey, however, is unlikely to realize its vision of an energy hub—not because of Russia, but because of a combination of domestic and other geopolitical factors.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Geopolitics, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Turkey

175. On Political Forgiveness: Some Preliminary Reflections

Author:: Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief examines political forgiveness, when countries or groups are able to reconcile or set aside historic enmities. The inability to overcome longstanding grievances—however justified and deeply rooted—often undermine a group’s or nation’s current core interests. This lack of forgiveness manifests throughout the world: tribal warfare in South Sudan, hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seemingly irreconcilable differences within the European neighborhood, and the failure to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Deep animus often seems to take precedence over interests. What conditions are necessary for political forgiveness, and through what process is it achieved? How is it that some countries, like Germany, have been able to find their way through this thicket, while others, such as Japan, have not—or at least not to a comparable extent? And, in cases of genocide, such as Rwanda, where political forgiveness may well be impossible, should the international community more purposefully examine the social license extended to victims? Ambassador Wendy Sherman makes the case that insights from frameworks of personal forgiveness can help nations seize the moment when their interests align and, accordingly, move to achieve political forgiveness. First, the process of forgiveness requires a sense of justice—victims must feel that perpetrators have been held accountable and will no longer be able to hurt them. It must also be a deep, extended undertaking: when perpetrators offer only superficial acknowledgments of the victims’ pain and attempt to move on quickly, victims perceive those efforts as perfunctory, even disingenuous. Additionally, countries must reestablish genuine, ongoing contact to overcome narratives of “the other” that inhibit forgiveness. They should not assume, however, that political forgiveness will proceed as a linear, three-part process in which the perpetrator issues an apology, the victim accepts the apology, and the two subsequently cultivate their ties on the basis of aligned national interests. This examination finds that the process works best in the reverse order: only upon discerning that their strategic interests happen to align do conflicting countries begin to move toward reconciliation and forgiveness.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Forgiveness
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

176. Promoting Rule of Law: Myth Versus Reality

Author:: Christina Murtaugh
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Rule of law has long been a key international concern, especially for conflict-affected countries, and promoting it is a critical challenge to the international community. This Peace Brief focuses on the misconceptions of what is called the golden hour approach to offer more practicable alternatives. The issue is focus—whether to find a solution among Western paradigms or to empower people, support sustainable change, and provide enough time for the people to act and the process to unfold on their own terms.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Law

177. Overcoming Barriers to U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:: Maral Noori, Daniel Jasper, and Jason Tower
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2011, U.S. president Barack Obama announced plans to "pivot" toward Asia. In 2012, Chinese president Xi Jinping expressed his hope for "a new type of relationship" with the United States. A lack of strategic trust between the two countries, however, prevents critically needed productive cooperation. This Peace Brief addresses the misunderstandings behind this mistrust and a possible way to move beyond them.
Topic:: International Relations, Communism, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

178. Implications of Downed Russian Jet on Turkey-Russia Relations

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: After Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane 24 November 2015, tensions between the two countries came to a head, particularly given their very different political positions on the Syrian issue. With Russia an ally of the Assad regime, and Turkey an ally of the opposition, the downed Russian jet has been the latest in a string of incidents that have threatened otherwise growing economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. This position paper argues that escalation of the tension between the two sides will have ramifications not only for the two parties involved, but also for the Syrian crisis.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Turkey

179. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey

180. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
Topic:: International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

181. In the Balance: Searching for protection in eastern DRC

Author:: Hannah Cooper
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As 2014 starts, there are reasons to hope that peace may be in sight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). National initiatives and committed regional and international political engagement in 2013 led to important advances and new framework agreements to resolve the conflict and insecurity. However, the people Oxfam talked to across eastern DRC reported that their situation remains precarious, particularly in remote areas where there is little state presence. Ongoing national, regional and international engagement is needed, as well as efforts to ensure that high level agreements and initiatives are systematically linked to community experiences. Without these, it is possible that this rare opportunity will be wasted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

182. The ICC under Political Pressure: Towards Lowered Expectations of Global Justice

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) launched investigations into the 2007-2008 post-election violence in Kenya, in which some 1,200 people were killed and several hundred thousand displaced. The ICC is breaking new ground with the Kenyan cases; for the first time sitting heads of state are facing charges before the Court. Kenya's response to the proceedings has involved a number of political and judicial measures. It has obstructed the work of the Court; it has sought deferral of the cases by the Security Council; and it has threatened the ICC with mass withdrawals. Kenya's objection to the trials has gained regional support and renewed strength for the claim that the Court has an anti-African bias. Its claims that the Court should not prosecute state leaders because of concerns over regional peace and security have been met with understanding. The Security Council has, however, refused to suspend the trials. The political attack against the ICC will have broader implications for the Court. The Court will need to reconsider how it protects witnesses, safeguards evidence, and selects cases for prosecution. It may even have to retreat from the principle of prosecuting sitting heads of state. The expectations placed upon the ICC as an institution of global justice have been unrealistic. The current international political climate will not further this goal. Major powers remain outside the Court and the current Ukrainian crisis will make it hard to agree upon Security Council referrals.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, International Organization, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

183. Chinese Dream, Others' Nightmare? Despite superficial similarities, China is not destined to follow Russia's path to rogue-dom

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although China's statements about the Ukrainian crisis have been weighed very carefully, there are concerns that China is drawing lessons such as 'might is right' and 'geopolitics is all that matters' from the crisis. The hawks in China have adopted a similar tone to that of the Kremlin, with both wishing to see a relatively diminished Western influence in the international arena. The Chinese Dream is all about national rejuvenation, which entails redressing past grievances. Nevertheless, the Dream need not turn into a nightmare for other powers. The increase in China's military budget does not indicate growing ambitions of a global power projection. China's primary concern remains stability both within and without its borders.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Asia

184. Maximizing the Impact of Aid to Pakistan: Leverage Reform and Local Capacity

Author:: Richard Albright
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The effectiveness of U.S. civilian assistance to Pakistan depends on sustained funding commitments from the United States and sustained commitment to economic and institutional reform from Pakistan. Weak public institutions and poor governance have greatly impeded Pakistan's development. U.S. assistance should focus on strengthening institutions systemically. Direct assistance to the Pakistani government—through financing that supports specific reform programs and policy initiatives and cash-on-delivery mechanisms that offer assistance after agreed performance criteria are met—could incentivize Pakistani public institutions to improve service delivery. Pakistan's devolution of authority to the provinces offers an opportunity for well-targeted and cost-effective initiatives to incentivize improvements in provincial public service delivery in such areas as basic education, health and policing.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan and United States

185. Georgia's Search for the Third Way: Despite a strong westward pull, Georgia attempts to improve its relations with Russia

Author:: Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia is not likely to resort to overt political pressure on Georgia in the run-up to Georgia's signing of the Association Agreement with the EU (27 June), and the NATO Summit in Wales (4-5 September). This is partly due to its weak levers and the fact that they cannot be strengthened within a short time span. Instead, Russia is likely to apply a dual strategy by strengthening its indirect 'influence tools' that are operating within Georgian society, as well as by continuing dialogue and pragmatic cooperation with the Georgian leadership - at least for the time being. Moscow is likely to stand firm on the issue of the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In all likelihood, Russia will seek to increase its control over the territories, and to hamper any rapprochement between Georgia and the separatist territories. Despite the fact that the Russian intervention in Ukraine is likely to deter and delay substantial progress in the cooperation between Georgia and Russia, both sides seem to be willing to continue on the path of 'normalisation'. A practical compromise on the Georgian westward course seems to be emerging: in all likelihood Georgia will sign the Association Agreement with the EU without much Russian interference, but NATO will not offer Georgia a Membership Action Plan at the Summit.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia

186. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul in July 2014 shows how the relations between China and South Korea have taken center stage in North- East Asia. Both countries are building up a growing strategic partnership, as a result of emerging cross-interests in the region and robust trade relations. This dynamic underlines the dilemma Seoul faces in maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States, while turning increasingly toward China as its core partner for both its economic development and its North Korea policy.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

187. The Middle East and North Africa: Change and Upheaval 2014

Author:: Christian Koch
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The breakdown of state structures and the wider regional political order has resulted in a complex tapestry of conflict throughout the Middle East that is likely to produce a continued period of volatility and violence for several years to come. This is because there are numerous dynamics at play that are competing with one another across various levels. Within these dynamics, religion as a mobilizing factor which, alongside sectarianism has emerged as a primary driving force for many of the ongoing conflicts. In addition, the deep crisis of the nation-state has released different dichotomies resulting in overlapping lines of confrontation that seem to be exploding all at once. The situation is exacerbated by the diminished leverage of global players on regional forces and regional players over national ones, thus significantly complicating the search for solutions.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and North Africa

188. The EU in the MENA region: confounded by the chaos?

Author:: Domhnall O'Sullivan
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The first concerns the fundamental methodological logic of the policy instruments underpinning EU action in its neighbourhood. Historically, a certain duality has existed between the multilateral regionalism of grand approaches towards the south and the bilateral realism which often comes to the fore. According to institutional dynamics and preferences – as well as vacillating local conditions – the EU has moved back and forth along this continuum.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

189. Turning the Tide on Ebola: Scaling up public health campaigns before it's too late

Author:: Debbie Hillier
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is totally unprecedented. The accelerating number of cases, the poor health infrastructure in affected countries, the short supply of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding this disease are providing a huge challenge to affected governments and the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Health Care Policy, and Ebola
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

190. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

191. Time to Worry about China's Military Rise

Author:: Evan Braden Montgomery
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: What are the potential consequences of China's military modernization? This question is at the heart of recent debates over the durability of U.S. primacy, whether or not the United States can sustain its grand strategy of global engagement, and how it should adapt its armed forces. During the past two decades, China has been increasing its defense spending, developing new war fighting strategies, and fielding advanced weapons systems. Yet many scholars and policymakers still believe that U.S. dominance will remain uncontested.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: North America

192. Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Goals in the BRICS-Led New Development Bank

Author:: Kathryn Hochstetler
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The BRICS countries held their annual meeting in Fortaleza, Brazil on July 15-17, 2014. While there, they formally launched their NDB, answering some of the many lingering questions about its function (BRICS 2014). The Shanghai based bank will have at least US$50 billion in initial capital, making it a significant new entrant into the sphere of global development finance. India will hold its first rotating presidency, but all five of the countries have particular roles to play. The lengthy presidential declaration gave little new information about the kinds of projects that will receive funding; however, simply repeating earlier statements that it will finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects. This policy brief examines how the NDB is likely to approach those two policy objectives, and notes a potential clash of these goals. There is already abundant evidence on this issue in the 2013 agreements and in the current financing patterns of the various national development banks of the BRICS member countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Development, and Environment

193. Prepare for a 'multi-partner' world! Reordering Order

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: If decision-makers are to cope with a rapidly emerging polycentric world characterized by compounding complexity and declining constitutionalism, new forms of statecraft are need - ed. Partnerships may well be the way forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Power Politics

194. EU – NATO Relations in The Western Balkans

Author:: Michael Littlehale
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: This paper will outline past examples of successful cooperation in relevant operations (that is, in meeting security issues on the continent) in the western Balkans, and show the implications this has in moving forward. In doing so, the initial international response to the breakup of Yugoslavia will briefly be reviewed, and the subsequent involvement of NATO and Europe to these conflicts in the 1990s. This leads to US/NATO efforts that finally brought the warring parties to the table, and Europe’s increasing involvement as NATO phased out its operations. The evolution of institutional and operational dynamics of cooperation between the EU and NATO will then be examined before focusing on this relationship in regards to the western Balkans, and the impact it has had on the region —both positive and negative —to date. The paper will conclude with the lessons drawn and the implications for EU and NATO relations’ moving forward, as conflict once again has emerged on the European continent.
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, International Cooperation, European Union, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

195. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations

Author:: Filippo Urbinati
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

196. Energy Crossroads: Shifting Dynamics in the Troubled Triangle Between Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad

Author:: Emanuela Pergolizzi
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Iraq, Turkey, and the Kurdistan Regional Government are in tense political relations over recent energy politics and regional dynamics. While major international interests related to oil and gas resources might currently be at stake, historic mistrusts and deeper political challenges seem to stand in the way of a peaceful trilateral cooperation. While energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government grow apace, Ankara seems to stand both as an active gambler and a key facilitator. The domestic and regional dynamics unfolding in Turkey will likely be indicators of whether a durable peace situation can succeed over longHstanding political obstacles and historical tensions between the countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

197. Does Beijing Have a Strategy? China's Alternative Futures

Author:: Banning Garrett and Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: As China's National Party Congress gathered in early March to anoint Xi Jinping and the next generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing's behavior at home and abroad strongly suggested that, while they have strategic goals, they have no strategy for how to achieve them. Beijing seems unable to change course from following a development model it has outgrown and pursuing assertive, zero-sum foreign policies that are counter to its long-term interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: China and Asia

198. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:: Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

199. The Start-Up Fund – An Elegant Treaty Mechanism for Sustaining Defence Capabilities

Author:: Dinesh H.C. Rempling and Quentin Huxham
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: At his regular press briefing on 6 May 2013, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, dramatically threw down the gauntlet to Europe's leaders ahead of this December's European Council. Emphasising the need for improved cooperation and coordination between NATO and the EU, he called on Europe's leaders to ensure that, as a result of the first discussion about European security since the financial crisis at the European Council in December, Europe would be both willing and able to act in the interests of transatlantic security.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

200. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict

Author:: Thomas Pierret
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS