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701. Bahrain's National Charter And Political Reform In The Gulf

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamad's reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the Gulf kingdoms toward the establishment of representative institutions. However, Bahrain's proposed reforms are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to address the political and economic discontent among Bahrain's Shia majority.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Bahrain

702. Syria Under Bashar Al-Asad: The Domestic Scene And The 'Chinese Model' Of Reform

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This is the first of two PolicyWatch pieces about Syria under Bashar al-Asad. This article examines the domestic situation in Syria; the next article will look at Syrian foreign policy.On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding — inter alia — freedom of expression, release of political prisoners, and an end to martial law in place since 1963. A similar such petition, published in September with ninety-nine signers, has evidently sparked a broader movement. And on January 20, the first-ever elections for many positions within Bashar al-Asad's Baath Party will be held.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Syria

703. Israel's National Unity Governments: A Retrospective

Author:
Michael Phillips Moskowitz
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Friday, June 15 marks day one hundred for the Sharon administration and Israel's sixth national unity government. The occasion warrants a look back at the five previous Israeli unity governments.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

704. Palestinian-Israeli Political Fatalities, September 28, 2000 - April 30, 2001

Author:
Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following report evaluates trends in Israeli-Palestinian violence during the past seven months using fatality statistics. This analysis covers the period from the outbreak of the "Al Aqsa Intifada" on September 28, 2000 through to April 30, 2001. The following statistics are based primarily on information provided by the Israeli human rights group B'tselem. This data has been cross-checked for accuracy with the Israeli government and U.S. and other Western media sources. For information about fatalities in earlier periods and about methodology, see Peacewatch #317: "Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overvie" and Research Note #8: "Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

705. How Sharon and Arafat May Respond to U.S. Initiatives

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the State Department Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs-designate William Burns seeks to coax Israelis and Palestinians into accepting a sequence of steps to halt the current deterioration of violence that has engulfed the area in recent months, the question is whether there is sufficient political will among the parties to arrive at a mutually satisfactory arrangement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Palestine, and Arabia

706. Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overview

Author:
Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following report analyzes political fatalities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that occurred during the government of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak (July 7, 1999-March 7, 2001). This report is an update to The Washington Institute's Research Note #8: Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999. Like the research note, its primary source for data is the Israeli human rights group Btselem, although other sources (including various media sources) were also used. Consistent with the previous study, no deaths that resulted from inter-Israeli or inter-Palestinian violence are included in this report; for example, the deaths of Israeli Arabs, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, and accused Palestinian collaborators with Israel are excluded. A main conclusion from the data is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict increasingly involves official security services, as distinct from civilians.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Government
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

707. Israel's New Sharon Government

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party rivals, but rather caught the defeated and divided party off balance by immediately offering them top cabinet positions in the desire to cement a unity government. Sharon was not intoxicated by the breadth of his victory, but rather followed through on his campaign commitment. Sharon realizes that it is also good politics. According to Gallup's poll taken last week, the Israeli public favors the establishment of such a government by an overwhelming 79 to 14 margin.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

708. Inside Palestinian Politics: Preparing For Israel Under Sharon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final status" negotiations and the new Israeli leadership. The most provocative event in recent days has been the issuance of a document — penned by a senior PLO official and longtime associate of PA Ra'is (Chairman) Yasir Arafat — which raises the specter that mainstream Palestinian politics are publicly reverting to the radicalism of pre-Oslo days.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

709. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

710. Behind A Looming Sharon Victory

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The deadline has now passed for Ehud Barak to step aside in favor of rival Shimon Peres in Israel's prime ministerial face-off next Tuesday, February 6, against Likud leader MK Ariel Sharon. Analysts have already written off this election for Barak, as Sharon's lead in the polls has barely budged from a 16 to 20 point margin over the last two months. Given that Barak won a landslide victory by a 12.1 percent margin less than two years ago, the scope of his probable defeat is striking — perhaps the most lopsided electoral debacle since Menachem Begin's Herut lost to the Labor forerunner Mapai in 1959 by a margin of 24.7 percent. Barak's electoral free-fall is especially remarkable given that his opponent is someone long regarded as unelectable, due to his advanced age, right-wing political views, checkered past, and evident discomfort with the new media age. Nevertheless, Barak has pressed on, insisting that the real campaign has only just begun. His decision to stay in the race has heightened speculation that he may plan on joining a Sharon-led "national unity government," despite carefully worded protestations to the contrary.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

711. Economic Policy Following the Terrorist Attacks

Author:
Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America has shown its best side in recent weeks in the efforts to help the victims of September 11. And it is showing its strength as it moves to strike back and tighten security at home. Dealing with the economic impact of these horrendous crimes has, appropriately, not been the first priority.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
America

712. Access to Land and Land Policy Reforms

Author:
Alaine de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Who should have access to land? What is the optimum definition of property rights and use rights in each particular context? Is government intervention justified to influence who has access to land and under what conditions? These questions remain, in most developing countries, highly contentious. It is indeed the case that land is all too often misallocated among potential users and worked under conditions of property or user rights that create perverse incentives. As a consequence, investments to enhance productivity are postponed, and responses to market incentives are weakened; many poor rural households are unable to gain sufficient (or any) access to land when this could be their best option out of poverty; land remains under-used and often idle side-by-side with unsatisfied demands for access to land; land is frequently abused by current users, jeopardizing sustainability; and violence over land rights and land use is all too frequent. With population growth and increasing market integration for the products of the land, these problems tend to become more acute rather than the reverse. As a result, rising pressures to correct these situations have led many countries to reopen the question of access to land and land policy reforms. While large scale expropriative and redistributive land reforms are generally no longer compatible with current political realities, there exist many alternative forms of property and use rights that offer policy instruments to alter the conditions of access to land and land use. A rich agenda of land policy interventions thus exists to alter who has access to land and under what conditions for the purposes of increasing efficiency, reducing poverty, enhancing sustainability, and achieving political stability.Historically, the most glamorous path of access to land has been through statemanaged coercive land reform. In most situations, however, this is not the dominant way land was accessed by current users and, in the future, this will increasingly be the case. Most of the land in use has been accessed through private transfers, community membership, direct appropriation, and market transactions. There are also new types of state-managed programmes of access to land that do not rely on coercion. For governments and development agents (NGOs, bi-lateral and international development agencies), the rapid decline in opportunities to access land through coercive land reform should thus not be seen as the end of the role of the state and development agents in promoting and altering access to land. The following paths of access to land in formal or informal, and in collective or individualized ownership can, in particular, be explored (Figure 1): (1) Intra-family transfers such as inheritances, inter-vivo transfers, and allocation of plots to specific family members; (2) access through community membership and informal land markets; (3) access through land sales markets; and (4) access through specific non-coercive policy interventions such colonization schemes, decollectivization and devolution, and land market-assisted land reform. Access to land in use can also be achieved through land rental markets (informal loans, land rental contracts) originating in any of these forms of land ownership. Each of these paths of access to land has, in turn, implications for the way land is used. Each can also be the object of policy interventions to alter these implications of land use. The focus of this policy brief is to explore each of these paths and analyse how to enhance their roles in helping increase efficiency, reduce poverty, increase equality, enhance sustainability, and achieve political stability.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

713. Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and Japanese policy-makers have successfully reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Yet, even as they have done so, a series of events has revealed a deeper ambivalence in Japan about the terms of the alliance. These events began with the 1995 rape of a school girl in Okinawa by U.S. servicemen, focusing attention on the social costs to residents of hosting U.S. forces. In 1999 came North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan, raising doubts among many Japanese about their alliance partner's ability to protect them. Most recently, the outcome of the 2001 sinking of the Ehime Maru training ship by a U.S. nuclear sub seemed to many to sacrifice Japanese citizens' interests to those of the U.S. military. Taken independently, these developments may seem temporary set-backs to policymakers, but together they suggest that there is increasing impatience among Japan's citizens with the way the alliance is managed. This disconnect between the public and policymakers could, if untended, have serious implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea

714. Failure of Perception and Self-Deception: Israel's Quest for Peace in the Context of Related Historical Cases

Author:
Joel S. Fishman
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
An examination of the historical record reveals many examples of failures of perception, and of leaders and governments refusing to integrate compelling information of existential importance. Taking account of new information and responding to changing circumstances is vital to man's relationship with his environment. When a dysfunction in the process of absorbing important new knowledge and correcting mistakes occurs, the faculty of rational judgment may be fatefully impaired. While, collectively, the attitude of a society is the sum of those of individuals, occasionally, the perception of a single individual in an influential position may be sufficient to determine a government's policy.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

715. Jerusalem in International Diplomacy: The 2000 Camp David Summit, the Clinton Plan, and Their Aftermath

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Since its independence in 1948, and indeed even in prior times, Israel's rights to sovereignty in Jerusalem have been firmly grounded in history and international law. The aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War only reinforced the strength of Israel's claims. Seven years after the implementation of the 1993 Oslo Agreements, Prime Minister Ehud Barak became the first Israeli prime minister to consider re-dividing Jerusalem in response to an American proposal at the July 2000 Camp David Summit. The December 2000 Clinton Plan attempted to codify Barak's possible concessions on Jerusalem. Yet they proved to be insufficient for PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, leading to a breakdown in the peace process and an outburst of Palestinian violence with regional implications. At least the failed Clinton Plan did not bind future Israeli governments or U.S. administrations, leaving open the possibility of new diplomatic alternatives. Only by avoiding premature negotiation over an unbridgeable issue such as Jerusalem can the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians stabilize the volatile situation that has emerged and restore hope that a political process can be resumed in the future.
Topic:
Security, Government, International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

716. U.S. Opposition to the International Criminal Court: Unfounded Fears

Author:
Robert C. Johansen
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
U.S. opposition to creating a permanent international criminal court arises from unwarranted fears that U.S. officials might be wrongly prosecuted. Opposition also rests on a mistaken belief that the United States can protect legitimate national sovereignty only by rejecting international legal constraints on criminal abuses of sovereignty. However, the proposed court would serve U.S. interests by investigating the world's worst international crimes and assigning individual responsibility for them, reducing collective blame for the criminal acts of individuals, discouraging atrocities, and upholding international law while protecting against politically motivated prosecutions.
Topic:
Government, International Law, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States

717. European Union: Belgian Presidency

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

718. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

719. Iran — Khatami Landslide

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

720. Nepal — Royal Murders

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The new King of Nepal, Gyanendra Shah, promised an inquiry into the massacre that killed almost the entire royal family on June 1. Given the former king's legacy as adored head of state and symbol of stability, his violent death has created extreme political uncertainty. It has occurred at a time of general political unrest in the form of strikes and demonstrations in the towns and an increasingly violent Maoist insurrection in the countryside. In the short term, violent demonstrations over the unsatisfactory nature of official explanations of how the royal family died will continue. They may do so even after the findings of the independent inquiry into the deaths are announced. A return to calm depends largely on King Gyanendra's ability to govern in the same manner as his murdered brother.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

721. European Union — Takeover Tensions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

722. Italy — Berlusconi Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

723. Japan — LDP Prognosis

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

724. United States — Medical Marijuana

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

725. India — Arms Scandal

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

726. Japan — Monetary Easing

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

727. Indonesia — Kalimantan Consequences

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Aburrahman Wahid yesterday visited Central Kalimantan, the scene of violent clashes between local Dayaks and Madurese settlers. The crisis has its origins in the ill-conceived transmigration policies of the Suharto era. Despite its localised and specific nature, there is a significant risk that it will embolden other outer-island communities to move more decisively against non-indigenous sections of local populations. This would place further strains on the thinly-stretched security forces. With Wahid's authority already weakened, the crisis in Central Kalimantan will strengthen the position of hard-line elements in the military who are opposed to the president. Nonetheless, Megawati's ability to gain political capital will be limited by the fact that she herself has a leading role in formulating policy towards the regions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

728. Moldova — Communist Government

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) has won full control over parliament following the February 25 general election. The decisive result has broken the country's political stalemate and allows the PCM to select the president, premier and parliamentary speaker without needing to form a coalition in the chamber. However, uncertainties over the PCM's economic policy and political priorities persist. While the PCM has a monopoly on power, this could be undermined by continued economic decline, internal party splits and a nationalist backlash against its pro-Russian orientation. The PCM will seek allies in domestic politics, and will seek to find the external partner, whether Russia or the IFIs, best able to assist in the long-term revival of the economy.
Topic:
Communism, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

729. Indonesia — Wahid Reprieve

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The past month has seen an escalation of elite political conflict in Jakarta, with enemies of President Abdurrahman Wahid engineering an investigation into allegations that he was involved in two financial corruption scandals. This investigation culminated in the endorsement by a majority of members of the House of Representatives on February 1 of a 'memorandum' concluding that the president was indeed implicated in corruption and demanding that he account for his actions. Many opposition legislators also called for the convening of a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the 700-member supra-parliamentary body which elected Wahid as president in October 1999 and has sole power to remove him.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

730. United States — Bush Administration

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A combination of good fortune and some skilful planning have allowed the Bush administration to make a successful start in office. These factors will probably allow the president to pursue much of his agenda effectively this year. However, difficulties will be encountered once Washington politics becomes preoccupied by the 2002 congressional elections.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

731. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

732. Ukraine — Kuchma Cornered

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition deputies, led by former justice minister Serhiy Holovatiy, have called on President Leonid Kuchma to resign over his alleged involvement in the murder of a journalist. The scandal has provoked popular protests and divided Kuchma's non-left majority in parliament, although the work of the reformist government has not been adversely affected. The case has highlighted the absence of the rule of law and the executive's control over supposedly independent state organs. Kuchma's fate depends on his ability to retain the support of oligarchic interests, some of which have already defected. His departure would enable the popular Yushchenko to campaign for the presidency while enjoying the benefits of incumbency, albeit in a temporary capacity.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

733. United Kingdom — Mandelson Departure

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Mandelson, resigned in acrimonious circumstances last week. Mandelson was a key figure in the reconstruction of the Labour Party in the 1990s and the most prominent partisan of early euro entry in the UK cabinet. While Mandelson's departure will be felt within the Labour Party and comes at a critical time in the Northern Ireland peace process, the most substantial impact is likely to be on the internal debate within the cabinet over euro-area entry, with the consequence of a diminishing likelihood of an early referendum on the issue.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and North Ireland

734. Philippines — Macapagal-Arroyo Elevation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Newly inaugurated President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo installed herself in Manila's Malacanang presidential palace on January 22. Macapagal-Arroyo's elevation from vice-president to president represents the culmination of a long campaign by opposition politicians and civic figures to unseat Joseph Estrada from the presidency. While Macapagal-Arroyo's administrative style is likely to differ markedly from her predecessor, her accession also represents the return to political prominence of elite groups closely associated with the presidencies of Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos. The ouster of Estrada significantly diminishes the political and economic uncertainty and instability which has plagued the country for several months. However, as the euphoria of 'people power' fades, factional politics within the new administration, and the regrouping of pro-Estrada forces in a new opposition, are likely to present Macapagal-Arroyo with significant challenges.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

735. CIAO: Russia: Weimar Analogy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Striking parallels exist between post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany (1918-33) with regard to their international position, socio-economic conditions, sense of defeat and humiliation, and political situation. The analogy implies that a fascist regime is likely to come to power in Russia. However, the underlying causes of economic distress, the structure of the political system, and the cultural context in post-Soviet Russia and Weimar Germany also differ. Thus, contemporary Russia has weak fascist movements. The regime that emerges will probably be authoritarian and nationalist in character, and may to some extent exhibit fascist tendencies, but is very unlikely to be fully fascist in the classical sense.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Germany

736. Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy in the Clinton Years

Author:
Gene Healy
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In his classic 1973 book The Imperial Presidency, historian Arthur Schlesinger Jr. warned that the American political system was threatened by “a conception of presidential power so spacious and peremptory as to imply a radical transformation of the traditional polity.” America's rise to global dominance and Cold War leadership, Schlesinger explained, had dangerously concentrated power in the presidency, transforming the Framers' energetic but constitutionally constrained chief executive into a sort of elected emperor with virtually unchecked authority in the international arena.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and America

737. Microsoft's Appealing Case

Author:
Alan Reynolds and Robert A. Levy
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's final judgment in the Microsoft case indicates that he has fallen hook, line, and sinker for the government's flawed arguments. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is unlikely to be so accommodating. The Justice Department's case will crumble as a result of procedural errors, flawed fact-finding, wrongheaded legal conclusions, and Jackson's preposterous plan to break up the software company most directly responsible for America's high-tech revolution.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

738. Constitutional Problems with Enforcing the Biological Weapons Convention

Author:
Ronald D. Rotunda
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The 1972 Biological Toxins and Weapons Convention—often called the Biological Weapons Convention, or BWC—requires the signatories to renounce the development, employment, transfer, acquisition, production, and possession of all biological weapons listed in the convention.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Government
Political Geography:
United States

739. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

740. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

741. The Pugwash Newsletter: Missile Defense: At Sea?

Author:
Jeffrey Boutwell and George Rathjens
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
As we went to press, the election of a new US President was still undecided. More than a week after 100 million Americans went to the polls, the ultimate margin of victory for either George W. Bush or Al Gore appeared to hinge on several hundred Florida votes. Whoever does take office on January 20, the next American President (and Commander in Chief), the man with ultimate authority over the world' s largest nuclear arsenal, will begin his term in office in the most politically tenuous position of any American president in perhaps a century.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
America

742. In Focus: Peru: Democracy

Author:
Coletta A. Youngers
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Since taking office in 1990, President Fujimori has concentrated power in his own hands, greatly strengthened the role of the armed forces and SIN, and thwarted political opposition through bribery and intimidation. The recent Peruvian elections failed to meet even the most minimal international standards for a free and fair process, and Fujimori embarked upon an unconstitutional third term, which left the country deeply polarized. Fujimori's decision to call for new elections and dismantle SIN is an important step toward putting Peru back on the path to democratization; however, the situation remains very tense and the position of the military and intelligence services uncertain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and Peru

743. Factors Impeding the Implementation of Privatization

Author:
Yaakov Ne'eman
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A number of factors are impeding the implementation of privatization in the Israeli economy. Here I will review those factors based on my own experience, both as someone who has represented investors who purchased government companies through privatization processes, and (from the other side of the fence) in my positions in the Ministry of Finance, when I had an opportunity to observe the governmental process from the inside.
Topic:
Security, Government, Privatization, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

744. Setting the Terms of Reference: Daniel J. Elazar's Impact on American Jewish Organizational Life

Author:
Gerald B. Bubis
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A giant of the twentieth century left us when Daniel J. Elazar succumbed to an illness on December 2, 1999, at age 65. His career was unique, and much will be written of his multifaceted contributions over the decades to the fields of political science and political theory. While he was known in the world at large for his brilliant theoretical work on the nature of federalism and its applications in government in America and abroad, this analysis looks at the wide-ranging impact of Daniel Elazar on the American Jewish community.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States

745. CIAO: Romania — Far-Right Ascendant

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Leftist Ion Iliescu and far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor will contest the second round of the presidential election on December 10. Tudor has a real chance of defeating Iliescu. He came a strong second in the first round, owing to disgust with the outgoing coalition, a popular anti-corruption platform and a shift away from extremist rhetoric. The PRM is an unpredictable, potentially destructive force with links to the Ceausescu era and dubious security circles and, now, the ability to obstruct reforms in parliament. Iliescu's weak credentials on reform and minority questions may hinder his attempts to form a common front against Tudor.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Romania

746. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia

747. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

748. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

749. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Canada

750. Iran — Investor Inhibitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East