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Begin New Search Topic Democratization Content Type Policy Brief

1. Climate change actions in conflict affected contexts

Author:
Helene Maria Kyed and Justine Chambers
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Violent conflict and state oppression in Myanmar demonstrates the importance of placing conflict analysis and people-centred approaches at the centre of international programming on climate change and environmental protection. In 2021, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the impacts of the climate crisis will be particularly pronounced in poor and conflict-affected countries. Research also identifies climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ that, in combination with socio-political factors like poverty, state incapacity and inequality, can intensify violent conflict. However, gaps remain in how to address the increase in climate change vulnerabilities in contexts with violent conflict and state oppression. This is evident in Myanmar, where a historically repressive military regime is threatening to cause longer-term ‘climate collapse’. Since a military coup in February 2021, extractive activities and war economies are destroying the natural environment and placing communities at further risk of displacement, violent persecution and food shortages. These effects of conflict are reducing local people’s capacity to adapt to climate change and threatening civil society’s efforts to protect the environment. Under such conditions, climate change programming needs to place conflict analysis at its centre stage and substitute state-centric and purely technical approaches with people-centred ones, in alignment with the localisation of aid agenda.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, Natural Resources, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

2. Autocratization vs. democratization: The new framework for understanding political competition in Turkey in view of the elections and beyond

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The traditional “Kemalist vs. Islamist” divide is being replaced by authoritarianism vs. democratization. The antagonism between authoritarian statism and democratization will decide the future of the country. The current Opposition reflects the profound social need for change and democratization. AKP and MHP voters have far more hard-line nationalist and less democratic attitudes than supporters of the opposition parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine will herald the defeat of the Lukashenko regime.

Author:
Svetlana Tikhanovskaia
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
What is the domestic political situation in Belarus? Has the government been weakened by its brutal and incessant repression? How is the population responding? The government has been weakened by the protest movement of the Belarusian population. It has chosen the path of repression instead of meeting the demands of the people and holding fair elections. It has been weakened. The government now has a very small toolbox. Only repression remains. Any easing in its stance will be a signal for people to launch further protests, even bigger than before. Because life has not improved. When you are at war with your own people all the time, your position is a weak one. And the gains here for the so-called government are not visible.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus

4. The West’s struggle in Sudan: Standing with the people while being stuck with the coup regime

Author:
Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. Meanwhile, conniving with Islamist elements of the former al-Bashir regime, the coup alliance is cementing its stranglehold over the state. The historic opportunity for genuine democratic transition risks being lost. This policy brief argues that, by holding on to a transition that has ceased to exist, Western governments have helped consolidate the coup. To counter that course Western donor governments are well advised to 1) increase economic and diplomatic pressure on the coup regime, 2) strengthen the civil society that opposes the coup, and 3) safeguard aid against diversion and political manipulation.
Topic:
Democratization, Coup, Revolution, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

5. Providing security in Iraq - what do Iraqis think?

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Denmark assumed leadership of NATO Mission Iraq in late 2020. The Iraqi people’s perceptions of their personal security and of those who provide it can impact the success of this mission. A recent survey provides new insights. At a time of political turmoil and insecurity in Iraq, NATO has vowed to step up its commitment in the region. This happens at a time of increased resistance to the US presence in Iraq, and a deteriorating security situation due to the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil, as well as signs of an Islamic State resurgence. Security is a major concern in Iraq. When respondents were asked to select their most important concern for the Iraqi government to address, the most common choice was ‘maintaining security and stability’ (30.5%), closely followed by the job situation (27.5%), and corruption (26.2%). This should be read in conjunction with the fact that 71.7% of respondents stated that they experience their personal security as currently either only partially or not at all ensured. This was most pronounced among the surveyed Shias, with only 18.8% indicating that they feel fully or partly secure in contrast to 46.7% of Sunni respondents.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Denmark

6. Making women count, not just counting women: Creating a more effective security sector in Iraq requires increased inclusiveness

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen and Ekatherina Zhukova
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
A priority for NATO Mission Iraq is to further the Women, Peace and Security agenda as one of the mission’s activities. This effort should focus on raising awareness of the operational benefits of equal opportunities and diversity and not just counting the number of women involved. RECOMMENDATIONS: Formulate a clear mandate for WPS functions in the mission that positions the WPS agenda as an integral element of NMI’s other activities. Support awareness-raising programmes and initiatives to transform social norms, including patriarchal gender norms and institutional socio-political constraints on female participation. Support the transparent qualifications-based recruitment and employment of women and prioritize the focus on inclusive work environments, both mentally and physically. Incorporate intersectional and masculinity perspectives in the work on WPS to avoid creating an image of WPS as a foreign-backed agenda that is only of, by and for elite women.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Women, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

7. Risks of technology use in humanitarian settings: Avoiding harm, delivering impact

Author:
Adam Moe Fejerskov, Maria-Louise Clausen, and Sarah Seddig
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The use of emerging technology in humanitarian settings carries significant risks. The complexity of these risks entails a need to understand and imagine risks beyond those commonly associated with a particular technology, field, or implementing organization. Recommendations: Apply an extensive interpretation of what risks may look like, where, when, for whom, and how they might occur. The indiscernible nature of risks related to technology use means identifying or imagining these moves beyond existing organizational experiences. Recognize that technology-related risks can emerge across the data chain and are not only relevant for engineering or operational staff.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Development, Migration, Poverty, Science and Technology, Capitalism, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. When jihadists broker peace: Natural resource conflicts as weapons of war in Mali’s protracted crisis

Author:
Boubacar Ba and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Following Mali’s coup d’état of 18 August 2020, the transitional government is yet to present a roadmap for peace in central Mali outlining a new strategy for dialogue with armed non-state actors. To support this process, it is important that Mali’s international donors identify already-existing local peace agreements and support local-level dialogue with all parties to conflicts. Recommendations: Immediate de-escalation of conflicts is needed through disarmament of militias and rebuilding of trust between local communities and Mali’s armed forces, with a strong focus on protecting civilians. Mali needs a national, comprehensive strategy for how to include jihadists and local militias in dialogue, reconciliation and dispute resolution. International donors need to identify already-existing local peace agreements and support local-level dialogue between all parties to conflicts. Long-term solutions regulating equal access to natural resources for different population groups are key.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, Terrorism, Water, Food, Non State Actors, Governance, Fragile States, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

9. Africa Megatrends: Looking over the Horizon into the Future

Author:
Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Africa is an enormous continent composed of several regions and 54 states, populated with more than 1.3 bil- lion people. Tere are more than 1,500 languages and diverse cultures. Both low-income and high-income countries and disparate levels of development are found on the continent. There is both concern and hope in the air regard- ing the trajectory that Africa’s development will take. Dwelling solely on negative news about confict, polit- ical turmoil, hunger and refugees is not constructive. Neither is seeing Africa through ‘rose-tinted glasses’ as a continent full of promise for trade and investment prospects. Rather, a balanced and realistic vision that looks over the horizon into the future is required. Talking about the diverse and vast continent as a whole is fraught with potential accusations of sweeping generalizations and even arrogance. Nonetheless, this is exactly what the business of forecasting is all about. To put it another way, predicting the future is essentially about painting the canvas with broad strokes and seeing the big picture. It is then up to area studies, sociology, anthropology, political science and similar disciplines to dwell on the more nuanced and detailed case studies. Hence, despite the complexity that forecasting the future of Africa entails, it is possible to outline the main contours of the trajectory of change that in- forms the course of developments on the continent.1 It is with this in mind that this Briefng Paper exam- ines seven megatrends that are shaping the future of Africa
Topic:
Climate Change, Democratization, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Urbanization, Conflict, Regionalism, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Africa

10. A Moving Frontline in Africa

Author:
Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Peer Schouten
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Pastoralism is the key to climate change adaptation in African drylands, but it is threatened by conflicts with farmers, regional insecurity and violent extremism. Stabilisation and development efforts should place pastoralism at the centre by strengthening pastoral livelihoods and should include herders as peacebuilding and development partners. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Strengthen pastoralist capacities to cope with risk and variability by boosting inclusive and equitable resource governance in new development programmes. ■ Include pastoralists as potential peace-builders in conflict resolution efforts. ■ Support dialogue between pastoralists and local and national governments in order to prevent the further marginalisation of vulnerable pastoralist groups.
Topic:
Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa

11. EU membership of the Western Balkan states in times of crisis: From a strategic choice to protracted inertia

Author:
Marko Stojić
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Our associate research fellow Marko Stojić in his latest policy paper deals with the Western Balkans' European perspective and the COVID-19 crises' impact on the countries' journey towards EU membership.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

12. Democracy Support and Peaceful Democratisation after Civil War

Author:
Karina Mross
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Evidence exists that democracies are particularly stable, yet also that processes of democratisation are highly susceptible to conflict, especially if democratisation occurs in the aftermath of violent conflict. New research from the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) indicates that external democracy support can help mitigate the destabilising effects of post-conflict democratisation. Since the 1990s, democracy support has been integral to most peacebuilding efforts. Supporting free and fair elections or a vibrant media seems well-suited for fostering peace: Democratic institutions can actively deal with societal conflicts, in sharp contrast to authoritarian regimes, which often rely on repression. However, altering power relations through more political competition can also trigger power struggles, which newly emerging democratic institutions may have difficulty containing. Therefore, questions arise regarding countries that have embarked on a process of democratisation after civil war: Can democracy support help to mitigate destabilising effects, or does it reinforce them? If it can foster peace, how should it be designed in order to avoid renewed violence? The wisdom or folly of supporting democracy to build peace after civil war has caused controversy, yet has rarely been tested empirically. This briefing paper summarises findings from DIE research that addresses this gap.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, Conflict, Institutions, and Peace
Political Geography:
Germany and Global Focus

13. UN Funding Cuts for Peacekeeping Have Consequences for Ghana: After sixty years of UN peacekeeping

Author:
Fiifi Edu-Afful, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Maya Mynster Christensen, Naila Salihu, and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Contributing personnel to UN peacekeepinghas been central to Ghana’s foreign policy andessential in shaping the country’s security sector. However, with the police and militarystill facing considerable challenges at home, and with the prospect of funding for UN peacekeeping missions being cut, Ghana’s domestic stability might be affected. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Peacekeeping experiences should be used more forcefully to create accountability among Ghana’s security forces. ■ There should be a comprehensive review of Ghana’s approach to international peacekeeping with a view to understanding and articulating more clearly the relationship between strategic foreign-policy objectives and the provision of domestic security. ■ The UN and troop-contributing countries should make an effort to understand the implications for them both of planned cuts in peacekeeping budgets.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

14. Ghana's Peacekeeping Efforts Abroad Have an Impact at Home: The Many Implications of UN Peacekeeping

Author:
Festus Aubyn, Kwesi Aning, Emma Birikorang, Fiifi Edu-Afful, Maya Mynster Christensen, and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The UN deploys thousands of peacekeepers in support of peace processes and state-building in countries and regions that are emerging from conflict. The example of Ghana shows that the impacts of these missions are not just felt in countries that host UN missions, but also in those that provide them with troops. Recommendations ■ The Ghanaian government should conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of peacekeeping on the country’s security sector in order to inform its contributions to the UN in the future. ■ The Ghanaian army and police should continue to build on the lessons learned from deploying security personnel abroad and maintain their focus on consolidating the democratic and accountable foundations of the security sector. ■ The UN should build a stronger understanding of how countries that contribute to peace- keeping missions are affected politically, financially and in respect of their security by making these contributions.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

15. Armed Non-Satate Actors Need to be Included in Pragmatic Peacebuilding

Author:
Lise Philipsen
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Armed non-state actors (ANSAs) often act as important security-providers in conflict environments but are typically excluded from long-term strategies for peace. To succeed, pragmatic routes to peace should consider how to incorporate ANSAs into longer term frameworks for peace. RECOMMENDATIONS International peace operations should: ■ Build diplomatic skills to interact with ANSAs who provide security locally and consider what role they can play in building peace. ■ Establish dialogue with local actors on all levels using track 1, 2 and 3 diplomacy. ■ Expand the ‘local agreements strategy’ that has been used successfully in MINUSCA, the UN’s stabilization mission in the CAR.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Reconciliation in the Western Balkans: Overcoming the past together

Author:
Gentiola Madhi, Jana Juzová, Tomás Strázay, Adam Balcer, Jelica Minić, and Nikolett Garai
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Two decades after the last armed conflict in the Western Balkans, the reconciliation process in the region is still in its embryonic phase. Reconciliation is considered both a determinant for the democratization process of these countries and a precondition for them to join the EU at a later stage. Moreover, a satisfactory degree of reconciliation is also seen as an essential “step which would make European integration a long-term success“. Today, the political and social dynamics in the region are characterized by high youth unemployment, lack of trust in the governing elites and gloomy prospects of EU membership in the near future, which have affected citizens’ perceptions and level of confidence that the reconciliation process can overcome the present stalling stage. Moreover, the standstill with the enlargement process has allowed the local elites in power to raise the nationalistic rhetoric in their public speeches for short-term political gains, at the expense of the wider regional rapprochement process.
Topic:
Democratization, Conflict, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

17. Stepping up Synergies of the Danish Comprehensive Approach: The Peace and Stabilization Fund

Author:
Jessica Larsen and Christine Nissen
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The Danish Peace and Stabilisation Fund is a prime example of how to combine civilian and military instruments to address conflicts in fragile states. However, there is still room for stepping up synergies of the military-civilian balance in Denmark’s comprehensive conflict management. Recommendations ■ Increase the frequency of formal feedback between the field and the strategic level of the PSF to avoid loss of knowledge. ■ Synergies between civilian and military instruments should take place through complimentary-but-separate interventions. ■ Take PSF instruments into account when planning Denmark’s broader engagement in conflicts to ensure a more comprehensive security policy effort.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

18. In Defense of Democracy: Lessons from ECOWAS' Management of The Gambia's 2016 Post-Election Impasse

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The years 2015 and 2016 were crucial for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from the perspective of its efforts to ensure sustainable peace and stability in the region, through supporting the conduct of peaceful elections and the orderly transfer of power. A total of 10 of its 15 member states held elections in 2015 and 2016. ECOWAS has a rich history of managing political transitions and elections in the past 18 years, following the adoption of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-keeping and Security (referred to as “the mechanism”), as well as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines ECOWAS’ interventions around the electoral processes of its member states, with particular focus on its management of the 2016 post-election impasse in The Gambia. This highlights how effective a mediation process can be when mandates are grounded within institutions’ normative and legal instruments, and when international actors work in partnership with regional organisations with respect to the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages. The lessons from this intervention might therefore be relevant to other regional economic communities (RECs), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) in avoiding the pitfalls of working in silos or engaging in a multiplicity of interventions, which are often at cross-purposes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

19. A difficult birth: Complexities and prospects for the formation of the Moroccan government

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Abstract It appears from his decision to replace Abdelilah Benkirane with Saadeddine Othmani as head of the government that Moroccan King Mohammed VI does not want to deviate from the requirements of the constitution and democratic methods. He is attempting to use his constitutional powers to find an acceptable solution to end the stalemate and form a government. Othmani has succeeded in reaching a tentative agreement to form the government and is likely to succeed in its formation and leadership. However, he will head a heterogeneous government afflicted by many contradictions, which may implode if it falls under excessive pressure. The government would then be in crisis, which it would have to overcome with a cabinet reshuffle to avoid a complete collapse, especially given the strong position of the king who wants the Justice and Development Party to continue leading the government in future.
Topic:
Democratization, International Affairs, and Governance
Political Geography:
Morocco

20. The Significance of the ‘YES’ Vote to the Constitutional Amendments in Turkey and Its Repercussions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey has officially announced that the Yes camp has won the constitutional amendments by just over 51 per cent, in contrast to the camp rejecting the amendments which received just over 48 per cent, although these results are not yet final. Surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), though its leadership and the majority of its parliamentary bloc supported the amendments, voted ‘no’. The five major cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Antalya – all voted ‘no’. The Kurdish vote clearly played a very important role in the Yes supporters’ victory. In other words, those who said ‘yes’ to the changes in cities with a significant Kurdish population exceeded the total votes of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the MHP in the recent parliamentary elections. In the external sphere, the referendum’s outcome is not expected to have a direct impact on heated regional issues, particularly in Syria, as well as most regional issues.
Topic:
Democratization and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

21. Constitutional amendments in Turkey: Predictions and implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) could not possibly have received approval for the proposed constitutional amendments in parliament and needed the Nationalist Movement Party’s support in order to carry out a referendum. A difficult election campaign for the amendments awaits the two opposing parties; however, there is no way to be certain before the announcement of the referendum results. Nevertheless, the most important issue relates to the long-term consequences for the AKP, particularly in terms of its Kurdish base. In terms of ethnicities, the AKP is considered the party of Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Circassians and all other Turkish ethnic groups, while the Nationalist Movement Party has traditionally been committed to the most severe position against the Kurdish Nationalist Movement, including its armed and unarmed wings.
Topic:
Democratization and Constitution
Political Geography:
Turkey

22. Democracy and its Deficits: The path towards becoming European-style democracies in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author:
Ghia Nodia, Denis Cenusa, and Mikhail Minakov
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are three participating states of the European Partnership that have chosen to conclude Association Agreements with the European Union, often at the expense of relations with their most powerful neighbour, Russia. They are also rather similar in their levels of democratic development. Within a post-Soviet space, they stand out for their relatively high level of democratic freedoms and political pluralism; none of them, however, can be considered a consolidated democracy, and most analysts describe them as uncertain or hybrid political regimes that combine features of autocracy and democracy. This paper offers a comparative analysis of the three countries’ political systems and aims to interpret both the roots of their relative success, and the nature of the deficits that prevent them from consolidating their democratic institutions. Among these deficits are problems stemming from ethnic, regional and cultural conflicts; strong and weak features in their general constitutional systems; the links between democratic development and government capacity to produce public goods; state capture (including control over the most influential media organisations) by powerful oligarchs and endemic corruption; underdevelopment of political parties and party systems; insufficient trust towards institutions of electoral democracy and a resulting propensity to use extra-constitutional means of political struggle. Civil society organisations have also failed penetrate the wider public and the anti-liberal discourse of traditionally dominant churches and anti-Western media and civil society groups is often supported by Russia. Despite these structural challenges, the commitment to European values and norms demonstrated by societies in these three countries gives hope that they can eventually consolidate their democratic institutions. It is argued that closer ties to the EU are important in explaining their relatively high level of democratic development. For this reason, the consistent and enhanced commitment of the European Union to this region is crucial to their continued success in this area.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

23. From Activism to Artivism: New Forms of Youth Activism in the Aftermath of 20 February Movement.

Author:
Mohamed El Hachimi
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Like many countries of the MENA region, Morocco has witnessed one of the most vigorous and dynamic youth protest in its modern history during the so-called Arab uprisings. To face this unprecedented form of youth political action, the strategy of the State consisted in containing youth protest by a twofold policy: conducting constitutional reform and trying to de-legitimize the radicals. The Policy Brief analyses what impact this strategy may have had on youth activism in Morocco. It focuses on the way the Moroccan youth movement(s) is adapting to the response of the regime. In this regard, it shows that while the youth movement(s) did not change its strategic objective (parliamentary monarchy) it is progressively changing the means to achieve it.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Youth Culture, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

24. Davutoglu’s Resignation: Crisis Under Control

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After two meetings between Turkey’s President Erdogan and Prime Minister Davutoglu in the span of less than a week, Davutoglu announced his resignation as head of government and head of the AKP party on 5 May 2016. This policy brief examines the key points of contention between Erdogan and Davutoglu, the republic’s governmental crisis, the impact of Davutoglu’s resignation on the Justice and Development (AKP) Party and the possibility of constitutional reform that will change the country’s system of governance.
Topic:
Democratization, Political Power Sharing, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Turkey

25. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Tunisia

26. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey

27. Afghanistan’s Fourth Estate: Independent Media

Author:
Ann Proctor
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan’s media have evolved at warp speed since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, yet being a journalist remains an extremely dangerous occupation, as many have been killed and still more threatened with violence if they persist in their work. The growth of Afghanistan’s democracy depends on a functioning media. This report examines the situation and offers paths forward to making Afghanistan safer for journalism.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

28. Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country

Author:
Mohsin Khan and Karim Merzan
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, a civil society group comprising the Tunisian General Labor Union; the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, 2015 "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia." In a new Atlantic Council Issue Brief, "Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country," Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Senior Fellows Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran survey the successes of Tunisia's consensus-based transition and the challenges that lie ahead. "The decision to award this year's Nobel Peace Prize to Tunisia's National Dialogue Quartet is an extremely important recognition of the efforts made by Tunisian civil society and Tunisia's political elite to reach a consensus on keeping the country firmly on the path to democratization and transition to a pluralist system," says Mezran. With the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali in 2011, Tunisia embarked on a process of democratization widely regarded as an example for transitions in the region. The National Dialogue Conference facilitated by the Quartet helped Tunisia avert the risk of plunging into civil war and paved the way for a consensus agreement on Tunisia's new constitution, adopted in January 2014. In the brief, the authors warn that despite political successes, Tunisia is hampered by the absence of economic reforms. Facing the loss of tourism and investment following two terror attacks, Tunisia's economy risks collapse, endangering all of the painstaking political progress gained thus far. Unless the Tunisian government moves rapidly to turn the economy around, Tunisia risks unraveling its fragile transition.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and Tunisia

29. Tunisia's New Constitutional Court

Author:
Duncan Pickard
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
January 2014 became a milestone of Arab democracy when Tunisia adopted the first democratic Arab constitution drafted outside the influence of the military or a foreign power. In "Tunisia's New Constitutional Court," Duncan Pickard, a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, takes up the next step for the country's democracy: developing a functioning Constitutional Court. He introduces the court's structures, outlines the various challenges that the new parliament will face in drafting a law to officially establish the court, and details policy options for the United States and Europe to support Tunisia's nascent democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and Tunisia

30. Regional Security through Inclusive Reform in the Maghreb and the Sahel

Author:
Querine Hanlon and Joyce Kasee
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Throughout the Maghreb and the Sahel, governments are struggling to manage a security environment fundamentally transformed by the Arab Spring. Within this region, the efforts of governments to secure their territories and civil society organizations to create accountable and transparent security institutions have proceeded almost wholly divorced from each other. This Peace Brief shares key insights from the engagement between official and civil society actors both within and across borders to address these gaps, makes the case for working regionally to address the twin challenges of security and reform, and highlights how community-security partnerships offer one approach to advancing the region’s security and reform agenda.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and North Africa

31. Crisis and Opportunity in South Sudan

Author:
Princeton N. Lyman, Jon Temin, and Susan Stigant
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Ongoing negotiations to end the South Sudan crisis cannot simply return the country to the previous status quo. For lasting peace, the negotiating parties and mediators will need to reach beyond national political elites and those bearing arms and invite active involvement of the international community. South Sudan needs to build national cohesion and address fundamental issues of governance, democracy, and human rights. Restarting the stalled constitution-making process presents an opportunity to achieve these objectives. Following negotiations, a broad-based, inclusive, interim government that includes a degree of joint South Sudanese-international community administration and management should govern and ensure preparations for new elections.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Poverty, Power Politics, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

32. Compounding Uncertainty in Afghanistan: Economic Consequences of Delay in Signing the Bilateral Security Agreement

Author:
Casey Garret Johnson, William A. Byrd, and Sanaullah Tasal
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The still unsigned Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between Afghanistan and the United States provides the legal basis for continuing U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. In addition to its substantive importance, the BSA is also a confidence-building mechanism. The delay in putting it in place is compounding uncertainty and further diminishing economic confidence during Afghanistan's already challenging and uncertain transition. Afghans' responses include, among others, hedging behavior (legal and illegal), personal decisions on whether to come back to or stay in Afghanistan, delays in investments, incipient job losses, declining demand for goods and services and real estate prices, and farmers planting more opium poppy.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Treaties and Agreements, Insurgency, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

33. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections

Author:
Michael Semple
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

34. Close the Gap: How to eliminate violence against women beyond 2015

Author:
Daniela Rosche
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
At least one in three women worldwide will experience some form of violence during their lifetime, often perpetrated by an intimate partner. Violence against women and girls is a fundamental human rights issue and a central challenge to development, democracy and peace.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, and Human Rights

35. Afghanistan at a Crossroads: Recommendations for the UN Security Council on the 2014 UNAMA mandate

Author:
Steph Cousins and Liz Cameron
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As Afghanistan prepares for Presidential elections and the withdrawal of international forces, insecurity is continuing to spread across the country with a devastating impact on civilians. UNAMA's role in advancing human rights, supporting humanitarian access and promoting peace and reconciliation efforts – particularly as they relate to the women, peace and security agenda in Afghanistan – must be strengthened in order to ensure the significant gains that have been made in the last decade are not lost.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Government, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

36. Riding the Wave of Reform: Fast-tracking Myanmar's future with good quality aid

Author:
Jasmine Burnley and Javier Pereira
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2011, following decades of isolation, Myanmar embarked on an unprecedented reform process, raising hopes for a new democracy. These reforms have been welcomed by the international community with rising levels of aid. If properly handled and spent, aid offers an opportunity to harness Myanmar's economic potential and make it work for poor people – reducing inequality, providing essential services, building resilience, and promoting sustainable investment. This paper explores what good-quality aid should look like for Myanmar, what it could deliver for those living in poverty, and what decision makers can learn from other countries, to ensure that aid is a catalyst for democratic reform, equitable growth, and peace.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

37. Working for the Few: Political capture and economic inequality

Author:
Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva and Nicholas Galasso
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In November 2013, the World Economic Forum released its 'Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014', in which it ranked widening income d is parities as the second greatest worldwide risk in the coming 12 to 18 months. Based on those surveyed, inequality is 'impacting social stability within countries and threatening security on a global scale.' Oxfam shares its analysis, and wants to see the 2014 World Economic Forum make the commitments needed to counter the growing tide of inequality.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, Poverty, and Social Stratification

38. Why Afghanistan's Provincial Council Elections Matter

Author:
Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people's sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country's political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Demographics, Development, Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

39. Last Chance: The International Community and the 2014 Afghan Elections

Author:
Scott S. Smith
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's democratic development has taken place within the tight embrace of international support and the conception of "free and fair" elections that comes with it, but Afghan and inter-national views on what to expect from elections have diverged in the past, leading to a deepening of distrust between the Karzai-led Afghan government and the international community. The run-up to the 2014 presidential elections has been shaped by this distrust. Nonetheless, with the breakdown of the reconciliation effort with the Taliban and uncertainty about the result of the transition process due to President Hamid Karzai's unexpected refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the April 5 election is the only remaining opportunity for a political resolution of the continuing crisis in Afghanistan. A more complete understanding of the 2009 elections—how they were and were not a disaster—can help to narrow the gap between Afghan and international expectations; and an understanding of some of the changes that have occurred in Afghan society since 2009 can offer reason for optimism that the election will at the least create space for political elites to address the root causes of the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

40. PakVotes: A Social Media Experiment in Elections Monitoring

Author:
Nadia Naviwala
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
PakVotes, a pilot project supported by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), used social media platforms and a network of reporters located in areas outside of major cities in Pakistan to track violence during the 2013 elections. The project offers lessons that could guide future efforts to use social media to record and publicize conflicts and the use of violence during elections and other major events. The hashtag #PakVotes trended for several days around elections, serving as a popular alternative news source to the mainstream media, which was not as diverse in its geographic coverage, sources or story types.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

41. A crisis of democratic legitimacy? It's about legitimation, stupid!

Author:
Alexander Mattelaer and Eline Severs
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Are we witnessing a crisis of democratic legitimacy? While citizens may lose trust in political authorities, democratic principles and ideals continue to exercise considerable appeal. This Policy Brief argues that this paradox must be understood as a crisis of legitimation. Research suggests that legitimacy is inherently subjective and must be constantly re-earned. Low levels of political trust can be explained as the result of the complexity of globalised yet fragmented societies. The present feeling of malaise calls for a redefinition of the relationship between citizens and the authorities by which they are ruled. If popular sovereignty is to mean anything in today's age, it requires a new legitimising narrative.
Topic:
Democratization, Sovereignty, Political Theory, and Governance

42. TSG IntelBrief: The Umbrella Revolution: Students Protest in Hong Kong

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The student-led, pro-democracy 'Umbrella Revolution' currently underway in Hong Kong is the most significant uprising within the sphere of the People's Republic of China since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989 Angered by Beijing's restrictions to candidate choices for the upcoming 2017 election, Hong Kong's citizens are massing by the thousands to protest As the pro-democracy protests grow, the government's reaction threatens to becomes more aggressive, possibly bringing the situation to a tipping point reminiscent of Tiananmen Square The Chinese government believes it can't afford to back down-with a wariness influenced by events in Ukraine and the 'Arab Spring'-but it also can't afford another massacre; the world is watching and plays a much larger role in the Chinese economy than it did in 1989.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and Hong Kong

43. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Arabia

44. Behind Closed Doors: The risk of denying women a voice in determining Afghanistan's future

Author:
Elizabeth Cameron and Jorrit Kamminga
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As the Taliban regime fell in 2001 after six years of abuse and oppression, the international community made a promise to the women of Afghanistan, that it would never again abandon them. The protection of their rights, at least in part, became a key element to afterwards legitimize the war which followed. It is 13 years since Colin Powell, then- US Secretary of State, declared that, 'the rights of the women in Afghanistan will not be negotiable.' Now Afghan women are questioning what the future holds.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

45. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and Egypt

46. Negotiating Libya's Constitution

Author:
Duncan Pickard and Karim Mezran
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Among the many problems facing Libya's troubled transition to democracy is the challenge of constructing a state in a country with a legacy of weak institutions. Muammar al-Qaddafi's brutal forty-two-year dictatorship employed a policy of de-institutionalization, leaving the presence of the state feeble throughout the country. Those organs that were powerful, including the secret security apparatus, lost their leader with Qaddafi's fall in 2011, leaving a power vacuum that nonstate actors have scrambled to fill. Some of the most influential political groups in Libya today are militias formed during and after the revolution. Although some are loosely affiliated with the ministries of interior or defense, most, if not all, do not demonstrate any particular loyalty to the government. Militias have kidnapped the prime minister (the militia responsible called it an “arrest”), assassinated judges and police officers, physically occupied the office of the justice minister, and engaged in an urban battle in Tripoli. They also seek to advance their political interests—which vary, but include influence over officials, rent seeking, and some Islamist agendas—with threats against ministries or officials. And yet the state relies on militias to provide essential security services such as running checkpoints and protecting the airport because no ministry force is up to the task. The ascendancy of these militias points to two troubling realities: the state lacks a monopoly over the use of force and the country faces an ongoing deterioration of the rule of law.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

47. No Arab Spring for Algeria

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The popular uprisings that swept the Arab world in 2011 passed Algeria by. While there were sporadic street demonstrations calling for political change, principally in the country's capital Algiers, they quickly petered out due to lack of support from the general public. Unlike in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, the political power system in Algeria remained intact. The autocratic government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has been the president since 1999, retained complete control, culminating in his reelection on April 17 for a fourth term despite his obviously failing health.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Social Movement, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia

48. Kenya's elections: the peace lobotomy?

Author:
Jean-Christophe Host
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This Africa Policy Brief will look at the Kenyan elections of March 4th 2013 and examine what lessons can be learned from them. The argument that will be developed throughout this paper is that, although the violence was contained, the elections were not a success, because the drivers of conflict in Kenya remain untouched. The underlying reason being that the informal power of the political class still outweighs all the formal institutions and plans put in place. The ruling elite has acknowledged the drivers of conflict in Kenya for years but has shown very little interest in resolving them, because that could influence the drivers of their power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

49. Mali: filling the void

Author:
Hans Hoebeke
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Mali, from model of democracy to a deep political, institutional crisis and war in the course of a few months. This policy brief offers an analysis of the Malian conflict looking into the national political dimension as well as the entire region where already present dynamics were reinforced by the Libyan war of 2011. It also looks into the regional and international response mechanisms.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

50. Investing in the Future: Rebuilding Higher Education in Myanmar

Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
The Institute of International Education's delegation to Myanmar last month had an unusual start. Dr.Catherine Raymond, a faculty member at Northern Illinois University who curates the Burmese art collection there, was a part of our group and had taken on the mission to give back to Myanmar a Buddha sculpture created more than 1,000 years ago. At a ceremony with the minister of culture, we learned that the return of the Buddha was not an easy thing.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

51. Great Expectations: Iran's New President and the Nuclear Talks

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani's 4 August swearing in as Iran's president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country's nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West's ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

52. Building peace in Mali: the elections and beyond

Author:
Tobias Koepf and Cristina Barrios
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
On 28 July, the Malian population will go to the polls to elect a new president. This event will mark a return to the constitutional order, which ceased following a military coup on 22 March 2012. Getting Mali back on track after years of decline and months of turmoil is no easy task. This holds true for the elections per se but also, and most importantly, for the period after them as the newly elected head of state will have to lead the recovery of the country and build long-term peace.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Mali

53. The Georgian succession

Author:
Ondrej Ditrych
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
A state with a turbulent modern history, Georgia has seen three regime changes in the last two decades. In October, the country will hold a presidential election - an important milestone in the ongoing political transition of the country that is bound to be closely monitored.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Caucasus and Georgia

54. The usual surprise? Iran's presidential elections

Author:
Rouzbeh Parsi
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
When the 2009 presidential election in Iran went awry, and its aftermath rocked the authority and legitimacy of the system (nezam), it seemed that nothing could bring the Islamic Republic back to normalcy. Back then, the next presidential elections looked far away and beyond anyone's ability to imagine. Yet, for all other things that can be said about the Islamic Republic, it has insistently and regularly held its presidential polls, wars and political crises notwithstanding. And now, in 2013, we are yet again trying to grapple with the complicated game of politics in Tehran as the official campaign has started. Doubts exist about how many citizens will actually go to the polls this time (it was a remarkable 80 per cent in 2009), but the fact that - on 14 June - presidential elections are to be held in conjunction with local and city council votes may increase the chances of a decent voter turnout.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

55. The March 2013 Elections in Kenya and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 4 March Kenyans will vote in highly anticipated elections. These elections will be Kenya's first since widespread violence following the December 2007 presidential election shocked the country and world. The 2007/8 violence lasted two months, during which time 1,133 Kenyans were killed, over 600,000 driven from their homes and more than 110,000 private properties were destroyed. The stakes during the upcoming elections are high and, while not inevitable, there is a serious risk of a recurrence of widespread violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

56. Against the odds – capacity development of fragile state institutions

Author:
Birgitte Lind Petersen
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The need to support central state institutions in fragile situations by prioritising capacity development has recently been elevated to a shared global concern as a result of the New Deal developed through the forum of the International Dialogue for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding. Peacebuilding and statebuilding are perceived as the most important aims of aid, and capacity development is central to achieving these. The emphasis on a country-led process indicates the need to develop capacities to lead such processes. Also, the commitment to joint development of a plan, support to political dialogue and leadership, transparency, risk sharing, strengthening of country systems along with the strengthening of capacities, all depend on or encompass strong elements of capacity development. This policy brief elaborates some major issues to be considered by donors supporting capacity development of central state institutions in fragile situations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State

57. Electoral Offensive: Taliban Planning for Afghanistan's 2014 National Elections

Author:
Antonio Giustozzi and Casey Garret Johnson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Taliban have more resources and are better organized to disrupt Afghanistan's 2014 national elections than was the case in any of the country's last four elections. Still, there are disagreements between insurgent leaders about carrying out a campaign of violence and intimidation. One group, led by Akhtar Mansur and tied to the Quetta Shura, favored, at least for some time, a more conciliatory approach and in the spring met informally with Afghan government officials to discuss allowing the polls to go forward. Another Group, led by Taliban military commander Zakir and the Peshawar Shura, favors disrupting the election. These upper-level divisions may have little consequence on the ground since rank-and-file fighters are either vowing to carry out attacks regardless or, as has happened in the past, may strike local deals with political entities to look the other way and allow voting to take place.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

58. Held to Account: Putting democratic governance at the heart of development finance

Author:
Cecile Untemaehrer
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The right of citizens to hold public officials to account is at the heart of democratic governance. When citizen oversight is absent and the power to allocate public resources lies in the hands of a few decision makers, it is all too easy for resources to be diverted from their intended use and abused for private gain. Such corruption denies people the health care, education, and other public services to which they are entitled, and which would otherwise give them the means to work their way out of poverty.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Development, Education, Health, Poverty, and Governance

59. Somalia: Puntland's Punted Polls

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Puntland is the first of Somalia's federal units to attempt transition from clan-based representation to directly-elected government, but poor preparations and last-minute cancellation of local elections in July underline the challenges of reconciling competing clan interests with a democratic constitution. Cancellation pragmatically averted violence, but societal tensions remain unaddressed. The presidential vote by a clan-selected parliament in January 2014 will thus be fraught. Weak political and judicial institutions will struggle to mediate, risking involvement by partisan arms of the state. Direct elections are no panacea for reducing the conflict risks, but hard-won incremental progress on the constitution and local democratisation must not be abandoned. The cancelled ballot's lessons should be instructive for promised elections in the rest of Somalia. Better technical preparations matter, but Puntland's experience shows that donors and other international actors also need to be heedful of local political realities, including support of elites, robustness of institutions and viability of electoral districts.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

60. Not a Rubber Stamp: Myanmar's Legislature in a Time of Transition

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's new legislature, the Union Assembly formed in 2011 on the basis of elections the previous year, has turned out to be far more vibrant and influential than expected. Both its lower and upper houses have a key role in driving the transition process through the enactment and amendment of legislation needed to reform the outdated legal code and are acting as a real check on the power of the executive.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Law
Political Geography:
East Asia and Myanmar

61. Putin's reactive reforms: Unfavourable conditions are forcing the Kremlin to change the rules of the game

Author:
Sean Roberts
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Following Vladimir Putin's presidential election victory in March 2012, the Russian political system has undergone significant change. The latest changes affect the way regional elections are conducted. However, a number of puzzles remain, not least the intentions of the Putin administration. Alongside liberalising reforms, such as the return of direct elections for regional governors and the easing of party registration requirements, we see new restrictions that close the political field. Nonetheless, the events of the past 20 months do reveal a distinct change in the reform process, as the Putin administration reluctantly adjusts to unfavourable political and economic conditions. In Putin's first two presidential terms, 2000-2008, reform was 'progressive', aimed at extending the Kremlin's power and authority. The latest changes, in contrast, are 'reactive' and involve an inevitable loss of control over political processes. One immediate implication is that political processes will become less predictable, as the Kremlin tries to reorganise its system of governance. But, in the longer-term there is a danger that the use of political reform as a substitute for democratic change will undermine the legitimacy of the entire political system.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia

62. Rule of law or rule of thumb? A New Copenhagen Mechanism for the EU

Author:
Sergio Carrera, Elspeth Guild, and Nicholas Hernanz
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The European Union, and its Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ), is founded on a set of common principles of rule of law, democracy and human rights. This has been officially enshrined in the body of Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) which lists "respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities" as the shared values on which the Union is rooted. One of the current modalities of action to ensure that all member states of the EU respect Article 2 TEU is to filter their compliance with these values before they accede to the Union. The so-called 'Copenhagen criteria' have been established in 1993 to ensure that all new EU member states are in line with the Union's common principles before crossing the bridge towards membership.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, International Law, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

63. Colombia, the peace process and the political participation of the armed groups

Author:
Felipe Gómez Isa
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
One of the key indicators to determine the degree of success of any given peace process is the stable participation in national politics of former members of armed groups in rebellion against the state. In the case of Colombia, the traditionally exclusive nature of its political system explains why both the enlargement of spaces for democratic participation and the political participation itself of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army (FARC-EP) have become key issues to be discussed at the talks in Havana. It would be highly desirable for the obstacles and reticence evinced by specific political sectors to be overcome so that the current peace process can result in both the political participation of the demobilised members of the FARC-EP and greater democracy in Colombia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

64. Arab Spring à l'algérienne

Author:
Rachid Tlemçani and Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Even though many of the socioeconomic conditions that have driven the popular Arab Spring uprisings and toppled several regimes across the Middle East have been present in Algeria as well, the Algerian regime has thus far been able to weather the winds of change. This policy brief takes a closer look at the "Algerian exception" by examining the protest movement in Algeria and why it has been more limited than elsewhere, as well as recent political "reforms" adopted in response to the protests. It argues that in addition to the experiences of the bloody decade of the 1990s, a number of factors account for the more limited protest movement in Algeria, such as the regime's larger spending power and its experience in dealing with large-scale protests. While the Algerian regime has introduced reforms over the last two years, these have been mainly cosmetic, largely consolidating the political status quo. The policy brief also briefly discusses the threat of Islamist terrorism in the Sahel region, with particular reference to the recent In Amenas hostage crisis in Algeria. As for Algeria's future evolution and prospects for political reform, fundamental change seems unlikely, at least in the short to medium term.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

65. Saudi Arabia's domestic sectarian politics

Author:
Madawi al-Rasheed
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Saudi regime has a vested interest in the Saudi public remaining fragmented and unable to bridge the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. Both Shia and Sunnis in Saudi Arabia have been invigorated by the ongoing Arab uprisings, and in their own regions have staged minor protests demanding similar rights. However, the regime's entrenched sectarian propaganda has succeeded in isolating the Shia and delaying a confrontation with Sunni Islamists. In the short term this may be a successful strategy, but in the long term it may fail to contain the frustration of Saudis who want serious political reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

66. Pakistan's 2013 elections: what implications for exclusion and fragility?

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Pakistan's election result was a vote for the status quo and has clearly maintained power in the hands of the country's political elite. However, analysis of the election process and outcome does indicate some shifts in the deeply entrenched patterns of political, social and economic exclusion that fuel Pakistan's fragility. On the negative side these include increased splits among the provinces and a more dominant Punjab, as well as greater threats to minorities and secular voices. However, some positive trends also emerge. These include a possible increase in political appetite for economic reform and development investment; growing political confidence among Pakistan's women; and the political engagement of the urban youth and middle-class populations with an interest in changing Pakistan's corrupt political system. As the international community begins to engage with Nawaz Sharif's new government it must recognise the importance of addressing exclusion as a major cause of Pakistan's instability. In particular, it must seek new entry points in the post-election environment to support the emergence of a more inclusive political settlement in Pakistan.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Gender Issues, and Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

67. Tunisia after Ben Ali: retooling the tools of oppression?

Author:
Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Tunisia under Ben Ali was a police state par excellence and reforming the country's internal security apparatus has thus been one of the major challenges since the long-standing autocrat's fall. This policy brief examines the various efforts to reform Tunisia's internal security system in the post-Ben Ali period and the challenges this process faces. It argues that reforms in this area have been limited so far, focusing mainly on purges rather than on broader structural or institutional reform of the country's police force. Moreover, not only have human rights violations committed by the police – despite important improvements – continued on a significant scale, but there are also concerns that the police will once again be instrumentalised for political purposes, this time by the Ennahda-led government. Indications to this effect have included in particular the seeming complacency of the police vis-à-vis the growth in religiously inspired violence. The recent killing of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in the first political assassination in Tunisia since Ben Ali's fall has further underscored the need to reform the country's internal security system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa

68. Walking a Thin Line: The Role of Think Tanks in Arab Transitions and Foreign Support

Author:
Pol Morillas
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This policy brief reflects upon the results of the workshop “Rethinking the Role of Think Tanks and Research Institutes and EU Policies towards the Mediterranean”, held in Madrid on 14th December 2012 and organised in collaboration with Real Instituto Elcano and FRIDE. It argues that Arab think tanks can shape political transformations in the region by informing, convening and advocating democratic reform. It also presents a set of recommendations for external powers such as the European Union in support of Arab think tanks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Education, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

69. Reforming Arab security sectors

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2011, Arab security forces, long suspected to be inextricably linked to their respective regimes, once again became decisive political agents in their own right: agents of change, agents of repression and, in some cases, both. Their facilitation or suppression of democratic transitions has sparked a long-overdue debate on security sector reform in the Arab world. What are the main features of security sectors in the region? What are the main obstacles to reform? And why is this debate taking place only now?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia

70. Honduras under siege

Author:
Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
America, Latin America, and Mexico

71. Death Penalty Policy in Countries in Transition

Author:
Madoka Futamura
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Countries under transition from war to peace or from an authoritarian to a democratic regime face fundamental political and social transformations and difficulties in emerging from a problematic past. The transition presents challenges but also opportunities for countries to reconsider their death penalty policies. It is in such a context that some countries abolish, retain or even actively resort to the death penalty to tackle transitional needs. Those who are working for abolition of the death penalty need to go beyond the human rights approach and take a more holistic approach to understand the fragile and complex local situation and needs in which the death penalty becomes a highly political issue.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Human Rights, Political Economy, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Reform

72. Democratic Trajectories in Africa: Unravelling the Impact of Foreign Aid

Author:
Danielle Resnick
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
When, why and how has foreign aid facilitated, or hindered, democracy in recipient countries? Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this policy brief examines the impact of foreign aid on supporting transitions from one-party to multi-party regimes, preventing democratic breakdown and the erosion of civil liberties, enhancing vertical and horizontal accountability, and enabling competitive political party systems. Particular attention is given to the trade-offs and complementarities between different types of foreign aid, namely democracy assistance and economic development aid. Select policy recommendations are offered to improve aid effectiveness at bolstering democratic trajectories within the region.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

73. Russia assumes and exploits the chairmanship of the G20

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Russia's plans for chairing the G20 in 2013 go further than staging a pompous summit in St Petersburg similar to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vladivostok in September 2012. Russian leadership feels an acute need to re-establish a solid international profile eroded by the evolving domestic crisis, which undermines the credibility of Putin's regime.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Emerging Markets, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Norway, Asia, Moscow, and Syria

74. The US and the Gulf States: Uncertain Partners in a Changing Region

Author:
Richard LeBaron
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Two important issues are testing relations between the United States and its allies in the Gulf: democratic transitions in the Arab world and regional security. Their outcome will either strengthen or disrupt what has been a long-term partnership. The United States and its Gulf allies are well into their second year of reacting to, and attempting to influence, the rapid political change in the Middle East and North Africa, but their efforts are informed by differing motivations. Meanwhile the looming threat of Iran attaining nuclear weapons has brought greater urgency to efforts to enhance Gulf security, but also some disquiet in the Gulf about any possible US deal with Iran that would serve global non-proliferation interests but threaten their vital regional security interests.
Topic:
Democratization, International Security, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, North Africa, and North America

75. Egypt's Litigious Transition: Judicial Intervention and the Muddied Road to Democracy

Author:
Mahmoud Hamad
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Egypt's judiciary has played a central role in the country's transition since the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. The political forces that led the uprising agreed on almost nothing except their profound rejection of dictatorship, corruption, and injustice. The military generals who took over from Mubarak lacked the imagination or the will to set out a clear roadmap to democracy. Ultimately, it fell to the judiciary to shape many aspects of the transition. In the legally murky climate of the past two years, judges drew fire from forces across the political spectrum, issuing decisions affecting the public perception of their objectivity.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

76. Post-revolutionary Politics in Libya: Inside the General National Congress

Author:
Karim Mezran, Fadel Laman, and Eric Knecht
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Piecing together the nascent political picture in Libya is essential to understanding the current roadblocks to democracy. Unlike Egypt, no single party, force, or personality anchors the political scene. Unlike Tunisia, no coalition provides a gauge of the relative strength of political groups. In Libya, where parties were banned even before the reign of Muammar al-Qaddafi, post-revolution politics remain fluid, loyalties fleeting, and ideological fault lines less defined than in its North African neighbors. Nevertheless, ten months after the country's first free elections, an early snapshot of the contemporary political scene is coming into focus.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia

77. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

78. Electoral Politics Under Tunisia's New Constitution

Author:
Duncan Pickard
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Tunisians are waiting for a new constitution to cement a democratic order after decades of dictatorship. The constitution-making process has dominated politics since the January 2011 revolution; what can be expected when the constitution is complete? How will presidential and parliamentary elections proceed under this new constitution, expected early next year? Although the constitution will initiate a form of legal stability, party politics and new institutional arrangements could converge to complicate decision-making and obscure consensus.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
North Africa

79. Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Although it appears Jordan has survived the Arab uprisings thus far, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state in Jordan has been retreating from many citizens' economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Worryingly, the segment of the population most affected is the monarchy's base, which sees the Palestinian-Jordanian population as benefiting from the new status quo. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country long term. Yet the real danger to the monarchy's stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

80. Can Democracy Take Root in Georgia?

Author:
Ivane Chkhikvadze
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Seven months after a genuinely contested election led to a historic change of government in Georgia, the situation remains precarious. The new “cohabitation” between the Georgian Dream coalition led by Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili in a strengthened parliament and President Mikheil Saakahsvili has weathered constitutional reform but is far from stable. Recent arrests of former high-ranking officials have raised questions. The new government faces the challenge of meeting public demand for accountability for the previous government’s abuse of power while delivering an ambitious legislative reform agenda. Greater openness to civil society and its pro-reform agenda has impressed many impartial observers, but domestic impatience for socio-economic improvement and job creation is growing. This latest policy brief addresses the challenges in Georgia and for the ruling coalition, and argues that reforms aimed at an independent judiciary and effective criminal justice system should take precedence over restorative justice. It also advocates a constructive approach by government and opposition in enacting lasting reforms to state institutions to ensure that they are neutral and not fused with the ruling party. Although it needs to improve communication with international audiences, the government should place less importance on image-making abroad, but rather more time listening to citizens and delivering on reforms. Finally, in the run-up to the presidential elections in October and the Vilnius Summit in November, EU member states, parliamentarians, and officials should desist from taking sides based on partisan allegiances and judge Georgia on the implementation of its commitments.
Topic:
Democratization, Elections, Constitution, Illiberal Democracy, and Political Rights
Political Geography:
Georgia

81. Effective Bureaucracy can Facilitate Economic Reforms in Myanmar

Author:
Anita Prakash
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Myanmar has opened up to democratic and economic reforms. Bureaucracy is one of the chosen agents of reforms, both political and economic. Bureaucracy faces the difficult task to reform itself for optimum delivery of reforms. Structural changes are required in transforming the bureaucracy into a development agent. Capacity building of the bureaucracy, without compromising its independence, is required for the effective implementation of reforms. A restructured and informed bureaucracy should be Myanmar's preferred agent of change.
Topic:
Democratization, Reform, Economic Development, Bureaucracy, and Independence
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

82. Africa's Militaries: A Missing Link in Democratic Transitions

Author:
Mathurin C. Houngnikpo
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A spate of military coups from 2008 to 2010 in Mauritania, Guinea, Niger, and Madagascar raised the specter of a return to military rule in Africa. While the subsequent resumption of civilian government in Guinea and Niger has reduced these concerns, evidence of military influence in politics remains widespread across the continent. This is prominently in view in Egypt where, in the midst of political transition, the military is attempting to maintain a privileged role for itself despite the widespread demands for genuine democratic reform.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Politics, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Guinea, and Mauritania

83. The advent of 'Islamic' democracy in MENA

Author:
Khalil al-Anani
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has reshaped the political landscape in MENA region. According to this new EuroMeSCo Brief by professor Khalil al-Anani, Middle Eastern and North African politics are now marked by the rise of Islamist parties either from the far right (Salafis and ex-jihadis), the center (the Musltim Brothers in Egypt) and the progressive and liberal Islamists in Tunis and Morocco. Khalil al-Anani highlights that Islamists were alienated under the despotic regimes and that after the Arab Spring they have significantly transformed its ideology, strategies and rhetoric, entering the political game. This transformation takes place in an increasingly competitive and fragmented political scene in which some Islamist parties have tended to adopt more pragmatic programs whereas others are still preoccupied with identity politics. Regarding foreign policy, an emerging commonality among Islamists can be identified: to seek a balanced relationship with western countries based on mutual respect and interests. Professor Khalil al-Anani concludes that Islamists will not necessarily become liberal but that they will have to succumb to the increasing demands of personal and public freedoms around the Arab world.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East

84. Elections in Libya

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and North Africa

85. How to Promote International Religious Freedom

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
President Obama's 2009 Cairo speech and Secretary Clinton's 2012 speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace persuasively argued for policies that promote international religious freedom (IRF), including links to national security, economic development, and democracy promotion, and as an antidote to religious extremism and terrorism. Unfortunately, current IRF policy--in place since 1998 and largely built around the threat of economic sanctions which no administration has been willing to use--is not up to the challenges or the opportunities that President Obama and Secretary Clinton so eloquently identified. To correct that, the White House needs to embrace a leadership role, building an infrastructure and providing the necessary resources for a reinvigorated policy of new tools and strategies to thrive. The need is pressing.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Economics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

86. How to Support and Engage Human Rights Defenders

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Human rights defenders work peacefully to protect and promote the universal rights of others. Whether they are lawyers, judges, journalists, bloggers, students, religious leaders, trade unionists, or human rights professionals, human rights defenders often are at the forefront of change in their own societies. Because they challenge their governments and other powerful interests to respect universal rights, human rights defenders and their families are often harassed, detained, interrogated, imprisoned, tortured, and even killed for their work. Many governments view such activists as opponents, rather than partners in the formation of a more pluralistic society.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Torture, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Nations

87. 2011— A Testing Year for Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Özdem Sanberk
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:
2011 was undoubtedly a year that witnessed the beginning of grand transformations which will continue in the years ahead. The popular movements under the name of the Arab Spring started in Tunisia and spread quickly to the rest of the region, sparking the process of political transformation. In another part of the world, the economic crisis which began in Greece and then engulfed the whole eurozone took the European Union to a difficult test regarding its future. Both events, one lying to the south of Turkey and the other to its west, interact directly with our country and therefore its zone of interest. Ankara inevitably stands in the epicenter of these two transformations of which the effects will certainly continue for a long period. Consequently, rising as a stable focus of power with its growing economy and its expanding democracy, Turkey has tried to respond to historically important developments throughout the year. In light of these realities and developments, this study will focus on the performance of Turkish foreign policy with regard to global and regional transformations which took place during 2011.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, and Islam
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

88. The electoral trap: Why the EU should think beyond Belarus's parliamentary election

Author:
Anaïs Marin
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One should not expect the 23 September election to comply with democratic standards. The current legislation in Belarus does not guarantee a free and fair process. The institutional setting prevents a transparent vote count and the election of opposition candidates. Yet, in sending a full-fledged observation mission to Belarus, the OSCE again appears to be giving official Minsk the benefit of the doubt. Breaking the vicious circle of external regime legitimation would require consistency and restraint in giving this periodic electoral farce any credence whatsoever. Imitating procedural democracy brings regime consolidation for Lukashenka: enticing the opposition forces – and their Western supporters for that matter – into the electoral trap is a preemptive scheme to disqualify them. Decapitated, divided, distrusted, the opposition is incapable of carrying out regime change. The regime's repressive build-up also dissuades Belarusians from mobilising to contest the predictable fraud – for now. They are nonetheless expressing increasing demands for independent election monitoring. In view of the 2015 presidential elections, the EU should invest more in the capacity-building and training of civil society actors, notably domestic election observers. Turning voters into reliable rule of law watchdogs could raise awareness in, and demand for democracy in Belarus.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe and Belarus

89. Country Economic Forecasts: Czech Republic

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP fell by a larger than expected 1% on the quarter in 2012Q1 according to initial data released in mid-May. As a result, we now expect GDP will fall 1.1% in 2012. On the political side, the government has avoided a snap election by surviving a confidence vote on 27 April. However, it will find it harder to stick to its austerity plans as its majority was weakened by the vote. Under current policies, we now expect the fiscal deficit to rise to 3.6% of GDP in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011 due to the weakness of the economy.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Czech Republic

90. Georgian Dream or Nightmare? Transition of power poses great challenges for Georgia and its foreign relations

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The victory of the Georgian Dream Coalition (GDC) over the United National Movement (UNM) has brought pluralism into Georgian policymaking. Until the power shifts from the President to the Prime Minister in 2013, the country will be led by an awkward dual power. New leadership offers great opportunities for Georgia. It can improve its democratic system and economic growth and establish a dialogue with Russia and the breakaway districts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would alleviate the frozen conflict and tense security dilemma on the boundary lines. If the transition of power does not go well, there will be prolonged power struggles that could cripple the policymaking and cast Georgia back to pre-Saakashvili times. Saakashvili's UNM is still a very significant player in Georgian politics and it is important for the GDC and the UNM to find a way to cooperate. In order to smooth the fragile transition period, Georgia needs special support and attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government

91. Advancing Myanmar's Transition: A Way Forward for U.S. Policy

Author:
Priscilla Clapp and Suzanne DiMaggio
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In January 2012, an Asia Society delegation visited Burma/Myanmar to engage in a Track II dialogue with the Myanmar Development Resources Institute (MDRI), a newly created, independent think tank based in Yangon. The MDRI participants in the dialogue include advisors with a mandate to provide policy advice in the areas of political, economic, and legal affairs to President Thein Sein and his government. The goal of this informal dialogue is to establish an ongoing channel of communication between experts from both countries and to explore opportunities to advance U.S.–Myanmar relations during a particularly fluid and fragile period of transition in Myanmar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

92. The Uprisings and the Future of North Africa and the Middle East: The Vienna Seminar 2012

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
"Seldom in the history of the Middle East and North Africa have so many changes taken place so dramatically, so quickly, and at the same time." This observation, made by a participant at the International Peace Institute's 2012 Vienna Seminar, helps explain the world's current focus on the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the forty-second annual Vienna Seminar was to make sense of these changes and see what steps can be taken to encourage the positive trends, and to promote peace and security in the region.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Vienna

93. Political Unrest in Venezuela

Author:
Patrick D. Duddy
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda–– who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

94. Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Closer U.S.-South Africa Relations

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe moves closer to elections, the prospect for political violence, even civil war, grows. President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are wrangling over a new constitution and the timing of upcoming elections. The eighty-eight-year-old Mugabe is suffering from cancer and wants elections soon to ensure his "liberation" legacy. At the same time, Mugabe-allied military factions, flush with off-the-books cash from Marange diamonds mined in the eastern part of the country, are mobilizing to stay in power when Mugabe dies. Political murder is on the upswing and Zimbabwe is as tense and divided now as it was during the run-up to the violent 2008 elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

95. Russia's pressure politics: The Kremlin's uncompromising approach to opponents threatens political stability

Author:
Sean Roberts
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
If Russia is to follow an evolutionary path to democracy, then the regime must be ready to draw the so-called 'non-systemic' opposition into political processes. This gradualist formula for democratic change is also the formula for political stability. A number of liberalising reforms conducted by the regime in response to widespread protests following the December 2011 State Duma election gave grounds for optimism that this process is now underway. However, any hopes that these events would kick-start democratic reforms were short-lived. Rather than draw in opponents, the regime has sought to isolate them, using a combination of reform, non-reform, dividing tactics and repression. But the results have not been positive. The non-systemic opposition is under increasing pressure, having seen its options all but reduced to more protesting. It is also showing signs of radicalisation. At the same time, the Kremlin's uncompromising approach is undermining regime stability. The pressure is building in the Russian political system. The combination of repression and radicalisation could easily see political stagnation degenerate into instability and the EU should take this new dynamic into account in its future policy planning.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Democratization, Government, Political Economy, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

96. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:
Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

97. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE

Author:
Joe Stork
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

98. Regional security co-operation in the smaller Gulf states

Author:
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This overview paper examines the challenges facing regional security co-operation in the five smaller Gulf States. It demonstrates the resilience and durability of intra-regional differences, particularly scepticism of Saudi Arabia's greater size and regional objectives. With the notable exception of Bahrain, differences of outlook have continued into the post-Arab Spring period as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman hold significant reservations about moving toward a closer Gulf union. The Arab Spring has injected urgent new domestic considerations into a regional security complex hitherto marked by external instability. Yet the bold political action and longer-term planning that is needed to address these issues is lacking, because ruling elites prioritise short-term policies designed to ensure regime security in a narrower sense. This means that security remains defined in hard, “traditional” terms and has not evolved to include the security of individuals and communities rather than rulers and states. The future of regional security co-operation is therefore uncertain and bleak, and the closing of ranks may yet herald a closer Gulf union as rulers come together to deal with the pressures generated by the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman

99. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership

Author:
Sean R. Roberts
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan

100. Rethinking US Relations with a Changing Egypt

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With Egypt in the midst of a political transition, this is a crucial time to rethink the US's relationship with Egypt, argues Atlantic Council Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Michele Dunne in this policy brief for the Project on Middle East Democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East