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62. Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The number of people in need as a result of the conflict in Syria continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. The donor conference in London on 4 February 2016 is another opportunity to reverse that trend and put Syrian civilians first. Oxfam is calling for rich states to commit to fully funding this year’s Syria crisis response appeal and to resettle 10 percent of all registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016. Oxfam has developed indicators to determine the fair level of commitment that each wealthy country should make to the appeals in 2016 to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the Syria crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
63. Papua's Insecurity: State Failure in the Indonesian Periphery
- Author:
- Bobby Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- West Papua is the most violent area of Indonesia. Indonesian security forces battle the country's last active separatist insurgency there. The majority of Indonesia's political prisoners are Papuans, and support for independence is widespread. But military repression and indigenous resistance are only one part of a complex topography of insecurity in Papua: vigilantism, clan conflict, and other forms of horizontal violence produce more casualties than the vertical conflict that is often the exclusive focus of international accounts of contemporary Papua. Similarly, Papua's coerced incorporation into Indonesia in 1969 is not unique; it mirrors a pattern of long-term annexation found in other remote and highland areas of South and Southeast Asia. What distinguishes Papua is the near-total absence of the state in indigenous areas. This is the consequence of a morass of policy dysfunction over time that compounds the insecurity that ordinary Papuans face. The author illuminates the diverse and local sources of insecurity that indicate too little state as opposed to too much, challenges common perceptions of insecurity in Papua, and offers a prescription of policy initiatives. These include the reform of a violent and unaccountable security sector as a part of a broader reconciliation process and the urgent need for a comprehensive indigenous-centered development policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia
64. Aligning Unevenly: India and the United States
- Author:
- Dinshaw Mistry
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the early and mid-2000s, US policymakers anticipated India becoming one of America's top global partners. Have New Delhi's policies on key strategic issues actually aligned strongly with US objectives, as would be typical of close partners? An analysis of twelve prominent issues in US-India relations indicates that New Delhi's policies mostly converged moderately, rather than to a high extent, with US objectives. Specifically, the alignment between New Delhi's policies and US objectives was high or moderate-to-high on three issues—UN peacekeeping, nonproliferation export controls, and arms sales. It was moderate or low-to-moderate on six issues—China, Iran, Afghanistan, Indian Ocean security, Pakistan, and bilateral defense cooperation. And it was low or negligible on three issues—nuclear reactor contracts for US firms, nuclear arms control, and the war in Iraq. To be sure, despite the low or negligible convergence, New Delhi did not take an anti-US position on these issues. Four factors explain why New Delhi's policies aligned unevenly with US objectives across the issues: India's strategic interests (that diverged from US interests on some issues); domestic political and economic barriers (that prevented greater convergence between India's policies and US objectives); incentives and disincentives (that induced New Delhi to better align with US objectives); and certain case-specific factors. This analysis suggests that, rather than expecting India to become a close ally, US policymakers should consider it a friendly strategic partner whose policies would align, on the average, moderately with US strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
65. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
66. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
67. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State
- Author:
- Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
68. Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces
- Author:
- Tyler Jost
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In "Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces,” Tyler Jost, a former U.S. Army Company Commander who served two tours in Afghanistan, lays out how the United States can most effectively support the Afghan National Security Forces. Mr. Jost argues that in the coming months, Afghanistan will depend on increasingly independent Afghan security forces to fight a tough insurgency—one that is perhaps even as strong as it was four years ago during the height of U.S. and coalition operations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
69. Choosing to Return? Prospects for Durable Solutions in Iraq
- Author:
- Rachel Sider
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the rapid advance of Daesh through central parts of Iraq, a humanitarian crisis of significant proportion remains. Since March 2015, over 458,000 people have returned to their places of origin. Many have been driven by government guarantees of improved security coupled with a lack of access to land, food and income generating activities in displacement sites. They have returned under precarious conditions, without the support required to ensure progress towards durable solutions, and they rely on assistance to recover and rebuild. Efforts must be made to ensure that returns are safe, dignified and sustainable. This paper outlines the current situation and provides recommendations for the Government of Iraq, UN agencies, donors and NGOs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, Reconstruction, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
70. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis
- Author:
- David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria’s neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Syria
71. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
- Author:
- Stanislav Secrieru
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
72. AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in 2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has given the impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has been employing a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snap election. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging the main Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and have resulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKP aims to win power in the next election at all costs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
73. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Libya, and Syria
74. Insurgent Alliances in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Mallory Sutika Sipus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- One of the contributing factors to Afghanistan’s civil conflict has been the fluidity within military alliances at the sub-national level. This brief examines the circumstances of military alliances between insurgent commanders—what factors play into an alliance and how they are maintained, with assessments resulting from research from the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies and supported by USIP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
75. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
76. Promoting Rule of Law: Myth Versus Reality
- Author:
- Christina Murtaugh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Rule of law has long been a key international concern, especially for conflict-affected countries, and promoting it is a critical challenge to the international community. This Peace Brief focuses on the misconceptions of what is called the golden hour approach to offer more practicable alternatives. The issue is focus—whether to find a solution among Western paradigms or to empower people, support sustainable change, and provide enough time for the people to act and the process to unfold on their own terms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Law
77. National Dialogues: A Tool for Conflict Transformation?
- Author:
- Susan Stigant and Elizabeth Murray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- National dialogue is an increasingly popular tool for conflict resolution and political transformation. It can broaden debate regarding a country’s trajectory beyond the usual elite decision makers; however, it can also be misused and manipulated by leaders to consolidate their power. This brief includes principles to strengthen national dialogue processes and considerations for international actors seeking to support these processes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. Reviving Afghanistan's Economy
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some say reviving the Afghan economy in a time of intensifying violent conflict and declining external financial inflows will be impossible. Expectations need to be kept modest, and measures must go beyond conventional economic approaches in order to be effective. This brief puts forward some outside-the-box ideas, which, combined with greater government effectiveness and, hopefully, reductions in violent conflict, may help turn the economy around.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
79. Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: The Prospect of Reviving Taliban Talks
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are few viable options for resolving Afghanistan’s conflict other than an inclusive peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Momentum toward this goal must be maintained following the “Heart of Asia” Ministerial Conference on December 9, 2015, where Afghan, Pakistani, and U.S. officials renewed their commitment to resuming dialogue. This brief discusses three key concerns that need to be addressed to effectively move the peace process forward and achieve a near-term cease-fire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Central Asia
80. Conflict Zones, Israel and Diaspora Perspectives in Canadian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aya Al-Shachli, Ramina Ghassemi, and Areej Rashid
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- While Canadian Jewish community organizations are actively engaged in lobbying the Canadian government on its foreign policy with Israel and Palestine, it is not at all clear that the perspectives of the Jewish-Israeli diaspora that have emigrated from this conflict zone have been considered. The absence of diaspora voices from the region seems a missed opportunity for the development of a more comprehensive foreign policy position.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Diaspora
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Israel, and Palestine