Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: Conflict Resolution

301. Conflict Prevention: Principles, Policies and Practice

Author:: Lawrence Woocher, Jonas Claes, and Abiodun Williams
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Conflict prevention is widely endorsed in principle—including in the 2010 U.S. National Security Strategy—but too rarely put into serious practice. It is thus important to narrow the gap between rhetoric and action in preventing violent conflicts. The interest of elites in exploiting ethnic differences for political gains, the absence of well-established mechanisms for prevention in certain regions, and the destabilizing role of external meddling continue to impede the development of effective prevention strategies. Yet, much progress has been made in the field of conflict prevention, both at the normative and the operational levels. As a crucial actor in conflict prevention, the United States should work with others to forge a consistent approach to countries at risk, urge countries to deal with arbitrary borders through negotiation rather than violence, and support greater cooperation between regional organizations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Education, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: United States

302. Central Asia: Chased by Chaos

Author:: Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Aside from the threat of political violence, most Central Asian states are faced with internal, as well as external threats from terrorism and organized crime. All states must work and cooperate amongst themselves and with their neighbors to come up with a sustainable response to these threats and ensure the stability of the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Central Asia

303. Reaching for Justice: The participation of victims at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia

Author:: Johanna Herman
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:: The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) is the first international or internationalised tribunal to include the participation of victims as Civil Parties during the trial. There was a steep learning curve regarding management of victims' involvement in the first trial. There was initially insufficient funding allocated to support victims' participation, with late establishment and understaffing of victim support at the ECCC. Cambodian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have proved instrumental in ensuring the submission of Civil Party applications, legal representation and other forms of support for Civil Parties throughout the process and played a pivotal role in outreach activities. Donors should consider financing NGO and civil society activities that support victim participation, in order to maximise the impact of the significant expenditures they are often allocating to the ECCC. The challenges and successes of the first trial provide lessons not only for future ECCC cases but also for other courts concerning the participation of victims such as the International Criminal Court.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:: Cambodia and Southeast Asia

304. The Civil Society-Military Relationship in Afghanistan

Author:: Lisa Schirch
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The intense challenge of coordinating government civilians with military actors in the International Security Assistance Forces' Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan has inhibited development of military relationships with civil society. The counterinsurgency strategy of “shape, clear, hold, build” invites civil society organizations (CSOs) to play key roles in the final “build” stage at the operational level. Yet many CSOs resist “coordination” in a mission and strategy different from their own. CSOs seek greater policy dialogue and “communication” with high-level ISAF decision makers, particularly during planning stages. An ongoing, high-level forum for civil society-military policy dialogue could help address tensions, provide a mechanism for CSOs to share their conflict assessments, and explore areas for possible collaboration such as in security sector reform.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Indonesia

305. Afghanistan: Conditions-Based Redeployment

Author:: William B. Taylor
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: President Barack Obama's policy of a conditions-based redeployment in Afghanistan starting in July 2011 leaves him a lot of flexibility. The administration will likely decide to maintain the troop numbers in Afghanistan near the surge level next year, pending another review.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

306. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan

Author:: Matt Waldman
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

307. Many Shuras Do Not a Government Make: International Community Engagement with Local Councils in Afghanistan

Author:: Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The need to engage local Afghan leaders and support community decision making has recently been promoted as a key element of both development and counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan. The resulting proliferation of community councils—commonly called shuras or jirgas— sponsored by different actors within the Afghan government and international community has decreased the effectiveness of local governance and rule of law in many places. Traditional Afghan dispute resolution and governance bodies are most effective when they are formed by local residents and genuinely reflect the interests of the community. Their legitimacy decreases if international or government sponsors create shuras or jirgas to promote their own interests. This paradox creates a dilemma for programs designed to foster good governance: how to promote community self-rule that reflects traditional values and mechanisms and that develop locally, while adhering to rigid counterinsurgency and development timelines and strategies. These so-called 'traditional' political structures have an important place in local governance in Afghanistan, but the international community should not assume that such bodies fairly represent their respective communities. Rather, sound understanding of local dynamics and in-depth consultation with local government actors and community leaders are necessary to help ensure that such bodies are represented and thus, legitimate within the community. A more coherent, sustainable vision of long-term local governance and coordinated strategies between the Afghan government and international forces is necessary to bring both stability and development to Afghanistan. In particular, this Peace Brief supports the attempts to create a coherent long-term goal of local governance based on legitimate local actors, most likely selected through elections.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

308. Misdirected Development a Threat to Security – Analysis of Southeast Asia

Author:: Manpavan Joth Kaur and Lina Gong
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Under-performance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and conflicts are connected such that the former can catalyse or prolong the latter. This Insight looks at Southeast Asia, where intrastate conflicts and violence have plagued countries for years. Three socially vulnerable groups experiencing inequality in access to outcomes of projects on the MDGs are identified - women and youth in rural areas and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The propensity for such inequality to incite and prolong conflict is examined.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

309. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia

310. China-Japan Security Relations

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The recent clash between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard in the East China Sea demonstrates continuing potential for conflict between China and Japan over territory and maritime resources, one that could affect the United States. China's stronger navy and air force in and over the waters east and south of the country's coast is one dimension of that country's growing power. But the deployment of these assets encroaches on the traditional area of operations of Japan's navy and air force - and a clash between Chinese and Japanese ships and planes cannot be ruled out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia

311. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:: Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

312. Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa

Author:: Jon Temin
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

313. Kosovo: The Next Steps

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Kosovo should not be allowed to stagnate as a "frozen conflict." There are well-established principles that can provide a basis for moving forward. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina on a framework for managing their relationship on practical issues are both possible and necessary, even if they do not happen right away. The time available should be used for careful preparations, especially by Pristina. As Belgrade and Moscow present serious challenges, a joint EU/U.S. effort has the best prospects for success to prevent a "frozen conflict."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Kosovo, Moscow, and Balkans

314. Defying Expectations: Polio Vaccination Programs Amid Political and Armed Conflict

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Defying expectations, successful polio vaccination campaigns have taken place in well over two dozen armed conflicts, and continue today. Polio vaccination campaigns amid war have often succeeded in gaining the cooperation of anti-government forces such as Sendero Luminoso in Peru, multiple rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Diplomatic means have also been employed to overcome severe political obstacles to such campaigns, even when the campaigns have become a flashpoint in places of political turmoil. Such campaigns face many challenges because vaccinators need to reach all villages without threats to their own lives or the programs' implementation. They require security for safe passage for immunizations and sometimes temporary cease-fires. The many successes of vaccination campaigns can be attributed to the programs' exclusive focus on the immunization needs of children; the use of interlocutors who are credible because they demonstrate neutrality; transparent discussions with opposition groups about the reasons for the campaigns; a role for opposition groups in facilitating the campaigns; limits on the number of days vaccinations take place; and the absence of any strategic or political goals for the effort beyond polio eradication.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Taliban, and Peru

315. MINURCAT Withdrawal: The Risks to Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Assistance in Eastern Chad

Author:: Erin A. Weir
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Chad hosts over 249,000 refugees from the Darfur conflict and 168,000 internally displaced persons who were relocated after instability caused by Chadian rebel groups. The U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad has been reduced to 1,900 as of October 15, 2010. It will withdraw completely by December 31, 2010. There are concerns about the capacity of the Chadian security forces to adequately protect the population.The government of Chad and the international community must work to ensure the security of the population and humanitarian workers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

316. Humanitarian Space Shrinking for Health Program Delivery in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Afghanistan and Pakistan, humanitarian space has shrunk as the Taliban and other insurgent groups have stepped up attacks on civilians, especially international aid workers, contractors and local leaders. Health programs continue to operate, but the ability of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to recruit and retain staff and to travel outside Kabul has suffered. The United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and other groups have sought to persuade the Taliban and other armed groups not to impede or interfere with humanitarian aid activities. These efforts have had some success where the aid is administered by Afghans, but they have not limited attacks on international staff, who along with all foreigners, remain at high risk of attack. Many NGOs act as implementing partners in the government's strategy to implement a comprehensive primary care system in Afghanistan under the direction of the Ministry of Public Health. They have managed to maintain those services with local staff despite their association with the government of Afghanistan, so long as they operate with impartiality and community engagement. The vulnerability of their staff to attack appears to be a product of generalized insecurity or the presence of foreign aid workers, rather than a result of collaboration with the Ministry.NGOs report that military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and military involvement in the medical sector, have contributed to the shrinkage of humanitarian space. The military's provision of health services through Provincial Reconstruction Teams and other mechanisms, though well-intended, sometimes sows confusion about the allegiances of U.S. and other Western aid workers and creates tensions with humanitarian principles the agencies rely on to operate in conflict environments. The conduct of the Afghanistan National Army and Police and the Pakistan military in entering facilities to gain access to arrest insurgents or gather information also leads to greater insecurity for NGO personnel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Non-Governmental Organization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

317. Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: U.S. military operations in Afghanistan are now entering their tenth year and policymakers in Washington are looking for a way out. A policy review is due in December but the outline is already clear: U.S. forces will try to pummel the Taliban to bring them to the table, responsibility for security will increasingly be transferred to Afghan forces and more money will be provided for economic development. NATO partners agreed at the Lisbon summit to a gradual withdrawal of combat troops with the goal of transitioning to full Afghan control of security by the end of 2014. The aim will be a dignified drawdown of troops as public support wanes while at the same time ensuring that a post-withdrawal Afghanistan, at the very least, does not become the epicentre of transnational terrorism. While success is being measured in numbers of insurgents killed or captured, there is little proof that the operations have disrupted the insurgency's momentum or increased stability. The storyline does not match facts on the ground.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Washington, Taliban, and Lisbon

318. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

319. Conflict and Post-Conflict Governance: The Stakeholder Perspective

Author:: Jacleen Mowery, Demis Yanco, and Ryan McClanahan
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Post-conflict governance requires simultaneous and complementary action on three levels. national governance, local governance, and civil society. Norbert Mao, a parliamentary leader from Uganda, offered this progression for managing the trade-off between short-term stabilization and long-term capacity building: "In the emergency phase, you should do it for us. In the reconstruction phase, you should do it with us. And in the development phase, you should do it through us." Efforts to develop the capacity of local governments to deliver services may be more responsive to external assistance than programs aimed at overcoming systemic dysfunctions in the central government, in part because municipal officials are more accountable to their communities. Civil society should be a prominent player in transitioning to “local ownership,” which may erroneously be conceived in terms of ownership by national and perhaps local governments. Building the capacity of civil society entails connectivity with international partners and ideas, not just financing. There are trade-offs involved among the three stakeholders. Among the most salient, when a legacy of abuse of power by the national government and repression of opposition groups must be confronted, an active civil society is essential. An invigorated civil society can fundamentally challenge illicit structures of power that profited from conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies, War, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Uganda

320. Chad's 2007 Peace Agreement Plagued by Poor Implementation

Author:: Delphine Djiraibe
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Political crises and armed opposition movements have plagued Chad for several years. After several failed peace initiatives, the August 13 Agreement was reached in 2007. The agreement is the most viable framework for bringing peace to Chad. It calls on the Chadian government to reform critical electoral institutions, undertake a credible electoral census and demilitarize politics in order to ensure fair and transparent elections. To date, the agreement has been poorly implemented. It jeopardizes the credibility of the upcoming legislative elections, currently scheduled for February 2011. Only comprehensive reform that addresses the development and governance challenges facing Chad will definitively end its political crisis.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

321. Pakistan: dealing with peace in the tribal areas?

Author:: Laila Bokhari
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The six Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along Pakistan's western border have long been seen as a hub for militants, some with sympathies to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The region has increasingly come to the world's attention as a recruitment and training base for groups responsible for attacks on Pakistani soil and as a launch pad for attacks on US troops and their allies in Afghanistan. Even though the various groups comprising the Pakistani Taliban have been around for a number of years, it was only in December 2007 that they formally established themselves as a united force.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

322. The Kosovo Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice and its Political Consequences

Author:: Pál Dunay and Steven Haines
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Ever since NATO's Operation Allied Force in 1999 resulted in a withdrawal of Serb forces from Kosovo and the establishment of governance arrangements for the province that included an important external presence (with UN, EU, NATO and OSCE missions) as well as Kosovo's own Provisional Institutions of Self Government, the precise future status of Kosovo has been in doubt. Two extreme options were favoured by Serbia and Kosovo, respectively: either for Kosovo to continue as a part of Serbia or for it to achieve independent status (most likely by attaining statehood). On 17 February 2008, a group of Kosovo leaders issued a Declaration of Independence. Serbia responded with a request that the UN General Assembly seek an opinion on the legality of Kosovo's action from the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The Court delivered its Opinion on 22 July 2010. What did the Court say and what are the political consequences of its Opinion?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Law, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, United Nations, and Balkans

323. Sudan: Fulfilling the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: Sudan stands today at a precipice. In 100 days the South will hold a referendum on self-determination with a vote for independence expected. Extensive early warnings exist indicating a real threat of the commission of mass atrocities surrounding the referendum, with those populations most at risk already identified. This threat looms while intertribal violence in the South is rising; conflict in Darfur persists; attacks by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in Central and Western Equatorial states continue unabated; and a return to war in the South is a possibility.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

324. Central Asia: Living in Afghanistan's shadow

Author:: Martha Brill Olcott
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The absence of a functional government in Afghanistan has been creating economic and security challenges for the Central Asian states since their founding in 1991. Long frustrated by the international community's failure to end the Afghan civil war through negotiation, the 2001 September 11 attack created the expectation among these countries that the US would intervene successfully in Afghanistan, leading to an economic recovery that would advance the development of all the states in the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

325. Transitional Justice and Peacebuilding Strategies: Considerations for Policymakers

Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:: It is critical to take into account the ways in which policies and programming in peacebuilding and transitional justice may be not only contradictory but also complementary. This brief examines the interaction of the following peacebuilding activities with transitional justice processes: Disarmament, Demobilization, and Re-integration (DDR), Security Sector Reform (SSR) and rule of law promotion.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United Nations

326. A Renewable Energy Peace Park in the Golan as a Framework to an Israeli-Syrian Agreement

Author:: Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The widely discussed Syrian-Israeli peace park concept is rooted in the assumption that Syrian and Israeli "good will" for cooperation is sufficient to mobilize a long-lasting, firm peace treaty between the two countries. The current discussions on a layout for a peace park provide a description of the mechanisms that will control and maintain the park, but fail to provide the insights for how to keep these mechanisms functioning in one, five or ten years into the future. This paper argues that given the lack of stabilizing factors in an Israeli-Syrian partnership, even if negotiations succeed and an agreement is signed, the probability of failure during implementation is high.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

327. U.S. Institute of Peace Teaches International Security Personnel to Resolve Conflicts without Resorting to the Use of Force

Author:: Mary Hope Schwoebel
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has trained members of police and military forces around the world to prepare them to participate in international peacekeeping operations or to contribute to post-conflict stabilization and rule of law interventions in their own or in other war-torn countries. Most of the training takes place outside the United States, from remote, rugged bases to centrally located schools and academies, from Senegal to Nepal, from Italy to the Philippines.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Philippines, Nepal, Italy, and Senegal

328. Media for Next Generation Peacebuilding in Iraq

Author:: Theo Dolan
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: USIP's Center of Innovation for Media, Conflict and Peacebuilding organized an expert working group on April 26-27 in Erbil, Iraq to discuss how to create a multimedia program that will provide Iraqi teenagers (ages 14-18) the tools to help them grow into independent, empowered citizens within a complex society.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Iraq and Arabia

329. A New Agenda for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:: Jim O'Brien
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: USIP has circulated several papers analyzing the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Collectively, they offer diverse but insightful portraits of developments in Bosnia. This short note takes a different approach. I focus on what can be done, not on causes or description. Because there is attention or money for only a few things to be done in Bosnia, we should pick our initiatives carefully.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

330. Beyond Emergency Responses in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Regional Solutions for a Regional Conflict

Author:: Raymond Gilpin, Catherine Morris, and Go Funai
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Building peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) troubled regions requires sustained intervention by a wide range of stakeholders to address aspects of the regional political economy that perpetrate cross-border abuse of the country's abundant resources. Violent competition for control of mineral resources, particularly in northeastern DRC, has involved regular forces as well as militia from the subregion and contributed to a flourishing war economy, many years after the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement in 1999.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Asia and Democratic Republic of the Congo

331. An Education Track for the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: A. Heather Coyne, Barbara Zasloff, and Adina Shapiro
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: President Barack Obama declared in his June 4thaddress at Cairo University that “all of us must recognize that education and innovation will be the currency of the 21st century.” His emphasis throughout the speech on the importance of educational initiatives reflects the central role that education can play in preparing communities for change. This is particularly relevant in regard to the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians. Education can be an important component of fostering positive change in social values, attitudes and skills that are necessary to overcome the pain of conflict and to cope with the frustrations involved in a peace process. Alternatively, education can reinforce conflict-producing myths and stereotypes, serving as a battleground where social groups are demonized, and different communities compete over history and the society's narratives.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, South Africa, Arabia, Germany, and North Ireland

332. Beyond Settlements: U.S. Policy Options Going Forward

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Having raised Arab expectations months ago with the idea of a settlement freeze, the Obama administration now has the unpleasant task of coaxing Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas to tacitly accept an agreement on settlements that offers less than expected -- if more than was offered in the past. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the United States will succeed at arranging a trilateral summit involving President Barack Obama, President Abbas, and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the UN next week that would culminate in the announcement of a formal relaunching of peace negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

333. After the Crackdown: The Iran Democracy Fund

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Nearly three months have passed since Iran's bloody crackdown on the mass protests over the controversial June 12 presidential election. The Obama administration, however, has yet to determine a strategy to support the first serious challenge to the regime since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Last week's statement by Iran's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- that he saw no proof the British or the West were behind the protests -- should encourage the United States to pursue a more assertive approach to support Iranians working for change. Nevertheless, the State Department's Iran Democracy Fund -- currently the only tool available for promoting democracy in Iran -- has been extremely cautious in its funding decisions since President Barack Obama's inauguration.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Iran

334. Rejectionists Readying to Counter U.S. Peace Push

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With rumors in the air of a U.S.-brokered, mid-September meeting between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, various regional actors are busy positioning themselves for the coming round of diplomacy. Analysis of these dynamics provides some useful perspective on the road ahead, beyond the usual focus on the minutiae of settlement construction, prisoner exchanges, or other immediate concerns.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

335. Putting Iraq's Security Agreement to the Vote: Risks and Opportunities

Author:: Michael Knights and Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 17, Iraq's Council of Ministers approved a draft legislation that would require the ratification of the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement, also known as the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), in a national referendum coinciding with the national elections on January 16, 2010. Out of the 275 Iraqi parliamentarians, a simple majority is needed to authorize the draft law when the National Assembly reconvenes on September 8, 2009. If a referendum takes place, and the Iraqis reject the security agreement, U.S. forces would be required to leave Iraq by January 16, 2011, instead of December 31, 2011. The referendum could also change the nature of the upcoming national elections, focusing attention on nationalistic posturing at the expense of the U.S.-Iraqi relationship, and distracting Iraqi politicians and voters from the many serious issues facing the country.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, War, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

336. Fatah Congress: Will New Resolutions Mean a New Direction?

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At its recently concluded General Congress, Fatah established a new political program that will affect both its terms of reengagement with Israel and its relations with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Fatah's new constraints on negotiations with Israel, however, may harm Mahmoud Abbas -- PA president and the party's top leader -- who needs to respond positively to international peace initiatives that may conflict with the organization's new rules of engagement. Abbas might ignore these congressional decisions, believing its program is intended only for internal consumption to fend off the accusations of the party's hardline members. Fatah's renewed efforts to reunite the West Bank and Gaza could lead to an escalation with Hamas, since many observers doubt unity can be achieved peacefully.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Terrorism, Power Politics, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

337. Reality Contradicts New Hamas Spin

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Stephanie Papa
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent interviews, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal has offered to cooperate with U.S. efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, indicated a willingness to implement an immediate and reciprocal ceasefire with Israel, and stated that the militant group would accept and respect a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital. But the conciliatory tone of this hardline Hamas leader, who has personally been tied to acts of terrorism and is himself a U.S.-designated terrorist, is belied by the group's continued violent actions and radicalization on the ground, as well as the rise to prominence of violent extremist leaders within the group's local Shura (consultative) councils. Hamas's activities of late appear to be diametrically opposed to the compliance of Mashal's statements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

338. No Expansion vs. Freeze: Obama's Dilemma over Israeli Settlements

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two and a half months after U.S. president Barack Obama and Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu first hit an impasse over the settlement issue, the dispute has not only continued, it has also grown more complex. Saudi Arabia has now rebuffed requests from Special Envoy for Middle East Peace George Mitchell to pursue confidence-building measures toward Israel, even in return for a moratorium on settlement construction. Although the Obama administration has not yet leveled any public criticism against Riyadh, it continues to be critical of Israeli settlements. To move diplomacy forward, Washington will have to engage in some creative policymaking.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia

339. 'Managed Democracy' Gives Way in Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 29, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) issued the provisional results of last month's presidential and parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan. The election outcome -- the traditionally entrenched political bloc losing ground to a newly formed party -- has exposed an opening in the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). Consequently, the region has taken a step away from a fully "managed democracy" toward a more fluid and unpredictable political system.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq and Kurdistan

340. Engagement or Consequences: Getting the Iran Message Right

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A number of top U.S. national security officials are visiting Israel this week, including Defense Secretary Robert Gates and National Security Advisor Gen. James Jones, and Iran will surely be at the top of their agenda. With Iran making steady progress toward nuclear weapons capability and remaining silent on the U.S. offer to negotiate, and with the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran looming ever closer, U.S. officials' public message on the consequences for Iran should engagement fail will draw close scrutiny. Although the Obama administration appears to understand the need for serious consequences, its public messaging on this point has been uneven, blunting its effectiveness.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

341. China: stumbling through the Pacific

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China lacks a coherent strategy for its aid program in the Pacific – beyond checking and reversing diplomatic recognition of Taiwan – and tends to pursue short-term objectives. China pledges aid in an erratic manner, funds projects without regard to recurring costs, and the secrecy surrounding its program obstructs development outcomes, and breeds suspicion. This short-termism has likely led China to miscalculate by over-engaging the dictatorship in Fiji. This approach is a legacy of its long-running battle with Taiwan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

342. Kosovo: Štrpce, a Model Serb Enclave?

Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Štrpce, one of Kosovo's largest Serb enclaves and one of the few with good Serb-Albanian relations and economic prospects, risks falling victim to the status dispute between Belgrade and Pristina. But it also has a chance to demonstrate to Serbs that they can protect their interests within Kosovo's constitutional order. Since May 2008, the municipality has been governed by competing authorities, both Serb-led: an official government appointed by the UN in the face of local opposition and a parallel regime elected in defiance of Kosovo law. Neither has the capacity to perform its duties. The impasse has deprived this peaceful enclave of effective government and devastated its economy, notably by preventing regulation of its lucrative property market and blocking privatisation of the Brezovica ski resort. Local elections on 15 November 2009 can end the un- easy status quo, give Štrpce a legitimate government and unlock its economic potential. Belgrade, Pristina and the international community should encourage voting and thereafter equip the municipal government with the expanded powers and resources it needs.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:: Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

343. The Obama Administration's New Counternarcotics Strategy in Afghanistan: Its Promises and Potential Pitfalls

Author:: Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Nearly eight years after a U.S.-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime, Afghanistan remains far from stable. As President Barack Obama considers alternatives to increasing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, his administration's new counternarcotics strategy meshes well with counterinsurgency and state-building efforts in the country. It is a welcome break from previous ineffective and counterproductive policies. The effectiveness of the policy with respect to counternarcotics, counterinsurgency and state-building, however, will depend on the operationalization of the strategy. The details are not yet clear, but the strategy potentially faces many pitfalls.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

344. Bosnia's Dual Crisis

Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) post-war status quo has ended but the international community risks muddling the transition by delaying decisions on a new kind of engagement. Republika Srpska (RS), one of the state's two entities, has defied the High Representative, Bosnia's international governor, and the international community has not backed him up. Instead, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) launched in October 2009 on the Butmir military base outside Sarajevo a high-level effort to persuade the country's leaders to adopt far-reaching constitutional reforms and allow the mandate of the High Representative and his office (OHR) to end. Disagreements over the scope and content of reform make agreement uncertain. But Bosnia's leaders should adopt as much of the EU-U.S. proposal as possible, and the international community should end its protectorate in favour of a new, EU- and NATO-led approach including strong security guarantees.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Balkans

345. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: PARSING THE OPTIONS

Author:: Michael Dziedzic and Megan Chabalowski
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On June 25, 2009, USIP hosted a public forum, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Parsing the Options,” where various courses of action for U.S. policy toward Bosnia and its unfinished state-building were debated. At issue are Bosnia's current conditions and what to do about them: Is the country on a trajectory toward instability and violence, or is it making hesitant progress? What is needed to overcome ethnic tensions between Bosnia's political leaders and how can the international community induce them into productive negotiations over reforms? What should the U.S.'s role be in Bosnia's integration process into the EU?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

346. The Current Status of Religious Coexistence and Education in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:: Renata Stuebner
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: This report is intended to examine the status of religious reconciliation and coexistence in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Bosnia and Herzegovina's centuries-old tradition of religious coexistence is rapidly disappearing. Memories of a time when people shared the same schools, office space and living conditions are slowly giving way to a fear of “the others.” Some positive interactions still take place due to family ties from mixed marriages, economic interdependence and old, enduring friendships. However, some efforts of top religious leaders, similar to those of the nationalistic politicians, seem to be driving society in the opposite direction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

347. Military-humanitarian integration: The promise and the peril

Author:: Denis Kennedy
Publication Date:: 08-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Finland is currently drafting a comprehensive national crisis management strategy (CNCM). This briefing paper puts this exercise in conversation with the increase in violence directed at aid workers in crisis situations, with special reference to Afghanistan. On a policy level, Finnish decision makers should take into consideration the changing security environment and the mosaic of actors involved in crisis management. It is argued that increased integration and coordination has complicated aid agencies' attempts to maintain neutrality in the field. Neutrality, together with impartiality and independence, functions to create a "humanitarian space" in conflict zones. It is precisely this space that is most at risk when humanitarian actors are coupled with military and state apparatuses. The aim of integration and coordination is to improve the responsiveness, effectiveness, and efficiency of humanitarian relief and crisis response. It involves coordination and cooperation in the planning and use of military and civil defense assets in humanitarian operations. Despite the potential for efficiency gains, integration remains a controversial topic. In particular, it forces tough questions on aid agencies who find their ability to remain neutral, impartial, and independent severely curtailed. There is concern in the humanitarian sector that coherence and integration mean subordinating principles to politics and that this has made aid agencies targets of violence. In Afghanistan and elsewhere, rising violence testifies to an environment in which aid agencies are now perceived as taking sides in conflict. The increase in violence in crisis situations calls attention in drafting the CNCM to the fragility of humanitarian space and the need for open, public debate. Given Finland's experiences with neutrality during the Cold War and in light of contemporary debates over Afghanistan, there is the opportunity to bring deeper understandings to bear in the field of crisis management.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Finland

348. Serbia - Stepping into Calmer or Rougher Waters?

Author:: Djordje Popovic
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:: The May 2008 elections in Serbia showed that the majority of the voters opted for European integration. However, difficulties in forming the government in the period after the elections proved that Serbian society is still highly divided. The polarization between pro-Europeans and traditionalists became so intense that it provided a coalition potential to Milosevic's Socialist Party of Serbia that even they did not expect. After an exhausting period of negotiations the Socialists decided to join the pro-European bloc, for the time-being.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, and Balkans

349. Obama's surge: The United States, Australia and the Second War for Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: President Obama's announcement of a troop surge and the planned withdrawal of the Netherlands as lead nation in Oruzgan province in mid-2010, where the bulk of Australia's military contribution operates, raise a number of issues for Australia's role in Afghanistan. In particular: the potential and perhaps unintended impact of any new lead nation on the relative improvements in security that have been achieved in Oruzgan province a possible demand for more Australian troops and greater flexibility in the way they are used in Afghanistan as the result of changes in US strategy; and the effectiveness of Australia's small but growing number of civilian and police personnel in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Australia

350. Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of Southeast Afghanistan

Author:: Tom Gregg
Publication Date:: 10-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: There is increased recognition of the importance of engaging tribes in Afghanistan, but the government of Afghanistan and the international community are yet to come up with a coherent and coordinated approach. While more effective tribal engagement won't work everywhere, there is an opportunity to engage more fully with Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan's southeast. A meaningful and well resourced tribal policy would help improve stability in this strategically important region and also help avoid any mismanagement that could make things worse.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

351. Issue Brief: Perspectives on the Peacebuilding Commission's Coordination Role

Author:: Jenna Slotin
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The founding resolutions of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) state that one of the main purposes of the commission is “to improve the coordination of all relevant actors within and outside the United Nations.” What does this mean for an intergovernmental advisory organ? Can the PBC really be expected to coordinate the many UN agencies, funds, and programs on the ground, let alone the many bilateral, multilateral, and nongovernmental actors that are present in a postconflict country? What does the PBC have to offer with respect to coordination?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, and United Nations

352. Issue Brief: Perspectives on the Peacebuilding Commission and Mutual Accountability

Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Mutual accountability has become one of several principles that underpin the PBC's work. The commission has facilitated the articulation of mutual commitments as part of the peacebuilding frameworks developed in Burundi, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau, and the Central African Republic. This has begun to fill an important gap. But, the PBC has so far not fulfilled the full promise of this principle: to serve as a forum where national and international actors can hold each other to their commitments. This brief reflects on the PBC's experience with mutual accountability and puts it into a broader context to highlight why it is an area where the PBC can potentially add value.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa, Sierra Leone, and Burundi

353. Turkey and the Palestinian Question

Author:: Bülent Aras
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Palestinian question is a central issue at the both state and society level in Turkey. Thousands of Turkish people protested the Israeli aggression against the Palestinians in Gaza this month in different parts of Turkey. Turkish PM Erdogan responded to the Israeli action by labeling it an act of disrespect to Turkey and suspended Turkey's facilitating role for indirect talks between Israel and Syria. Erdogan also initiated an intensive diplomatic campaign at the regional and international levels, utilizing Turkey's seat in the United Nations Security Council. Turkey calls for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and urges a compromise between rival Palestinian groups. Finally, the war on Gaza will have far-reaching consequences for the future of the region as well as for Turkish-Israeli relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Palestine

354. Macedonia's Name: Breaking the Deadlock

Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Macedonia is a relative success story in a region scarred by unresolved statehood and territory issues. International engagement has, since the 2001 conflict with an ethnic Albanian insurgency, brought progress in integrating Albanians into political life. This has been underpinned by the promise of European Union (EU) and NATO integration, goals that unite ethnic Macedonians and Albanians. But the main NATO/EU strategy for stabilising Macedonia and the region via enlargement was derailed in 2008 by the dispute with Greece over the country's name. Athens claims that, by calling itself “Macedonia”, it appropriates part of the Hellenic heritage and implies a claim against Greece's northern province. At summits it blocked Macedonian membership in NATO and EU accession talks until the issue is settled. Mystifying to outsiders, the dispute touches existential nerves, especially in Macedonia, and has serious regional implications. The parties need to rebuild trust; member states need to press both to compromise, especially Greece to respect its commitment not to block Skopje in international organisations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

355. Local Election Disputes in Indonesia: The Case of North Maluku

Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The election for governor in Indonesia's North Maluku province was one of the most bitterly contested since direct elections for local government heads were introduced in 2005. Held in November 2007, it remains in dispute more than a year later, although a winner has been named and inaugurated. At one point it seemed as if violence between the two sides could escalate into serious communal conflict, in an area where thousands had died in religious violence a decade earlier. By early 2009, however, it looked as though Indonesia's democratic institutions would be resilient enough to cope with an election gone wrong, and the dispute would be quietly resolved in the Constitutional Court. The Court's decision is expected in early February. The dispute that many thought could trigger further turmoil may prove instead to be a minor wrangle in Indonesia's largely successful effort to choose local government leaders by direct popular vote.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

356. Timor-Leste: No Time for Complacency

Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A year after the near-fatal shooting of President José Ramos-Horta, security in Timor-Leste is strikingly improved. Armed rebels are no longer at large. The atmosphere on the streets of Dili is far less tense. The government does not seem to be facing any serious political threat to its survival. It has, at least temporarily, been able to address several of the most pressing security threats, in large part by buying off those it sees as potential troublemakers. Nevertheless, the current period of calm is not cause for complacency. Security sector reform is lagging, the justice system is weak, the government shows signs of intolerance towards dissenting voices, and it has not got a grip on corruption. These problems, which have been at the root of the instability facing Timor-Leste since independence, must be tackled if the country is to escape the cycle of conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:: South Asia, Asia, and Vienna

357. The Palestinian Refugee Issue: A Palestinian Perspective

Author:: Abbas Shiblak
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The quest of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes is not only a legal and moral right but has become a major part of Palestinian identity and symbolizes Palestinian historical narratives. It has been an effective instrument of mobilization that became the political priority of various resistance groups which later formed the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO embarked on a line of negotiation which sought to reconcile rightist and realist approaches. They sought acknowledgment by Israel of its responsibility for the refugee issue and acceptance in principle of their right of return while showing flexibility and readiness to discuss various formulations of return. At the core of the inter-Palestinian debate is the dynamic between the two objectives of achieving statehood and the resolution of the refugee issue. State-building came to be seen not only as a means of reconstructing Palestinian identity but also as a catalyst to resolution of the refugee issue. A peace agreement should widen the options for the refugees and address all aspects of the refugee issue including the rights of repatriation to Israel, return to a Palestinian state, compensation, and equality and full citizenship rights in countries where refugees choose to remain. A comprehensive peace agreement must include the regional aspects of the refugee issue and all regional actors. There is an urgent need to review the current format of negotiations and bring about more balanced and effective international political engagement in the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

358. Haiti 2009: Stability at Risk

Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A series of crises in 2008 have increased the potential for serious trouble in Haiti this year. The politically motivated, violent April riots against high living costs caused widespread disruption and suffering, toppled the government of Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard Alexis and forced postponement of a donor conference. In August and September, four tropical storms and hurricanes killed 800, affected nearly one million, exacerbated food shortages and pushed yet more Haitians into poverty. Extensive damage was caused to infrastructure and agriculture. The global financial crisis is making it difficult for donors to meet commitments and reducing diaspora remittances. President René Préval and Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis, who took office in September 2008, need to secure the support of donors and parliament quickly for a wide-ranging stabilisation strategy or risk political instability and violence. These are major challenges in a year in which parliamentary elections will be held and constitutional reform is on the agenda.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Disaster Relief, Economics, Politics, Post Colonialism, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

359. Post-War and Post-Conflict Challenges for Development Cooperation

Author:: Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Conflict and violence have become an important context for development cooperation during the last decade. Donors not only have to cope with the consequences of conflict in their day-to-day work on the ground, but also need to develop strategies in the fields of early warning and prevention, as well as instruments for conflict analysis and conflic-sensitive approaches for cooperation. At the same time, external actors have been important supporters for many peace processes aiming at the termination of armed conflicts and violence. When wars or armed conflicts end (or at least when violence on the ground decreases) the hope for sustainable peacebuilding grows. UN General Secretary Ban Ki Moon pointed out the importance of the immediate post-conflict/post-war period in a report to the Security Council on June 11, 2009: “The immediate post-conflict period offers a window of opportunity to provide basic security, deliver peace dividends, shore up and build confidence in the political process, and strengthen core national capacity to lead peacebuilding efforts.” This gives a first impression of the many challenges internal and external actors face; at the same time experiences on the ground show that liberal peacebuilding conceived as a profound transformation process is a difficult endeavour.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: United Nations

360. Recruitment of Rule of Law Specialists for the Civilian Response Corps

Author:: Michael Dziedzic and Scott Carlson
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: For more than a decade, experienced international practitioners and peace scholars have recognized that multilateral interventions in societies ravaged by internal conflict cannot succeed unless they come prepared to deal with the inevitable void in public security and inability of the legal system to function effectively. In 1998, two core components of any solution to this crucial deficiency were highlighted in Policing the New World Disorder. First, “...the capacity of the international community to mobilize CIVPOL [civilian police] personnel should be strengthened, both within contributing states and at the United Nations.” Second, “The task of rebuilding or reforming the public security apparatus requires that the judicial process, associated legal code s, and penal system be addressed during the earliest stages...” The Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations (2000, commonly referred to as the Brahimi Report) urged “...Member States to establish enhanced national 'pools' of police officers and related experts, earmarked for deployment to United Nations peace operations, to help meet the high demand f or civilian police and related criminal justice/rule of law expertise in peace operations dealing with inter-state conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Globalization

361. Reconstructing Gaza – Lessons from Lebanon

Author:: Alistair Harris
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Last week's international donor conference to address the question of humanitarian assistance to Gaza underscores the myriad challenges confronting the process. Namely, how should the international community respond to the complex issues surrounding assistance in post-conflict recovery and reconstruction, particularly when several key donors reject any contact with Hamas, the governing authority on the ground? By any estimation, the Gaza reconstruction process will face several perplexing issues: How can billions of US dollars be effectively, transparently and accountably dispersed in a coordinated way, when several key donors and the Government of Israel reject any moves that will bolster the fortunes of Hamas, who m they classify as a terrorist organisation? What impact will an emerging Palestinian National Unity Government have on the mechanisms for overcoming many donors' reluctance to deal directly with Hamas? What opportunities and challenges does the reconstruction of Gaza pose for a rapprochement between Hamas and Fatah? Who will lead the reconstruction process and how will meaningful activity take place in the face of severe restrictions on access and movement? With Hamas in power in Gaza and Israel ref using to consider opening their common borders until kidnapped Israeli Defence Forces Corporal Gilad Shalit is released by Hamas, how is meaningful recovery and reconstruction even possible? In the absence of a credible political process, what use is reconstruction anyway if it merely returns the population of Gaza to their pre-conflict socio-economic imperilment? Lebanon faced a similar situation following the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Lebanon

362. Resolving the Crisis over Constitutional Interpretation in Afghanistan

Author:: J Alexander Thier and John Dempsey
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The current political crisis over elections in Afghanistan stems, in part, from a fundamental gap in Afghanistan's legal and political system: lack of agreement on what entity(s) has the power to resolve constitutional disputes, and how that power is accessed. Without a clear path to settling constitutional disagreements, the system becomes deadlocked as disputes arise, exacerbating tensions between Afghanistan's fragile institutions and factionalized political elite.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

363. Indonesia: Deep Distrust in Aceh as Elections Approach

Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Tensions in Aceh are high as elections approach, although they have receded somewhat from a peak in mid-February. The murders of three former combatants of the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM), other shootings and numerous grenade attacks over the last two months – all with unidentified perpetrators – have set the province on edge, and there remains a risk of sporadic, low-level violence before and after general elections on 9 April. Disputes over the results, with 44 parties competing for seats in district, provincial and national legislatures using a new and complicated system of voting, are also likely. There is little danger in the short term of violence escalating out of control, let alone a return to armed conflict, but the underlying causes of the tensions are not just election-related and need to be addressed if peace is to be preserved in the long term.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

364. Palestine and Israel: Time for Plan B

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The international effort to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has come to a dead end, at least for the present. Things can—and might well—get worse unless the United States and other outside actors couple a realistic view of the present with a serious effort to push for a more promising future. The first step in a new diplomatic approach must be to establish a cease-fire that builds on the common interest of both Israel and Hamas to avoid fighting in the short term. A new cease-fire should be clear and perhaps even written; mediators (whether Arab or European) must be willing to make an agreement more attractive to both sides to sustain (Hamas can be enticed by some opening of the border with Egypt; Israel will demand serious efforts against the supply of arms to Hamas). The second step must be an armistice that would offer each side what they crave for the present—Israel would get quiet and a limit on arms to Hamas; Palestinians would get open borders, a freeze on settlements, and an opportunity to rebuild their shattered institutions. Such an armistice must go beyond a one-year cease-fire to become something sustainable for at least five to ten years. Finally, the calm provided by the armistice must be used to rebuild Palestinian institutions and force Palestinians and Israelis to confront rather than avoid the choices before them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

365. Annual Review of Global Peace Operations 2009

Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: After several years of continuous expansion, reform and resiliency, in 2008 global peacekeeping was pushed to the brink. This publication warned in 2006 that peacekeeping faced a risk of overstretch. In 2007 it highlighted the mounting pressures on peacekeeping organizations, while stressing that peace operations had shown surprising resilience. By 2008 peacekeeping was spread increasingly thin, in many respects the victim of its own success. Our thematic review that year was by Lakhdhar Brahimi and Salman Ahmed. It cautioned that we risked unlearning the central lesson of the Brahimi Report: that peacekeeping is not a substitute for an effective political process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Peace Studies

366. The Future of Peacekeeping Operations: Fighting Political Fatigue and Overstretch

Author:: Richard Gowan
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: In the last sixth months, NATO and the UN have both confronted the possibility that their largest individual peace operations may fail. In Afghanistan, NATO troops have struggled to contain the Taliban. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the UN was unable to halt rebel attacks that displaced as many as 250,000 people last September.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Taliban and Democratic Republic of the Congo

367. Haiti: Saving the Environment, Preventing Instability and Conflict

Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Reversing a decades-long trend of environmental destruction is essential to Haiti's development, social and economic stability and, ultimately, security. Instability and violent conflict are not attributable solely to environmental degradation. But they are made more likely by the latter's interaction with such factors as weak institutions and governance, political fragility, pervasive and extreme poverty, vulnerability to natural disasters, rapid population growth, urban overcrowding and social and economic inequality. Concerted national effort and international support is required to stop deforestation and land erosion; reduce energy shortages and charcoal dependence; address rural and urban pollution, including the absence of a solid waste collection and recycling system; and strengthen an inadequate capacity to cope with natural disasters.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Post Colonialism

368. Nigeria: Seizing the Moment in the Niger Delta

Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The report of the government-constituted Technical Committee on the Niger Delta, submitted to Nigeria's President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua on 1 December 2008, offers an opportunity to reduce violent conflict significantly and begin longer-term regional development in the oil-rich region. The government needs to respond urgently and positively, in particular by accepting a third-party mediator to facilitate discussions of amnesty and demobilisation of militants, in order to dispel growing misgivings in the Delta, save the region from further violence and organised criminality, and ensure Nigeria's continued reliability as a leading source of energy for the world.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Oil, and War
Political Geography:: Africa

369. Just peace? Peacebuilding and rule of law in Africa: Lessons for policymakers

Author:: Olga Martin-Ortega, Chandra Lekha Sriram, and Johanna Herman
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:: Rule of law promotion is integral to peacebuilding, but not always well integrated It is important to distinguish between technical delivery of rule of law assistance and access to justice as perceived by the population Rule of law promotion and transitional justice may be complementary, or competitive Despite emphasis on the formal sector, informal justice processes are often most accessible to the vast majority Such informal processes may be transformed both by conflict and by peacebuilding activities Emphasis on state institutions in rule of law promotion can inadvertently undermine equal access to justice Given these challenges, the international community faces serious dilemmas about whom to engage, and particularly whether to engage the informal sector at all.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa

370. Protecting the Contiguity of Israel: The E-1 Area and the Link Between Jerusalem and Maale Adumim

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The E-1 area is a part of the Israeli city of Maale Adumim, located immediately adjacent to Jerusalem. There is an E-1 construction plan that was devised in order to link Maale Adumim and its 36,000 residents to Jerusalem. Every Israeli prime minister since Yitzhak Rabin has supported the plan. The E-1 site covers an area of largely uninhabited, state-owned land. Without control of the E-1 area, Israel is apprehensive about a Palestinian belt of construction that will threaten Jerusalem from the east, block the city's development eastward, and undermine Israel's control of the Jerusalem-Jericho road. This major artery is of paramount strategic importance for Israel in order to transport troops and equipment eastward and northward via the Jordan Rift Valley in time of war. Contrary to reports, the completion of E-1 would not cut the West Bank in half and undermine Palestinian contiguity. Israel has planned a new road that would allow Palestinian traffic coming from the south to pass eastward of Maale Adumim and continue northward to connect with the cities in the northern West Bank. This Palestinian bypass road would actually reduce the time for Palestinian drivers traveling in a north-south direction who would encounter no Israeli roadblocks. The main threat to Israel's future contiguity comes from encroachments on E-1 made by illegal Palestinian construction. Israeli and Palestinian construction in the West Bank has been governed by the legal terms of the Oslo II Interim Agreement from September 28, 1995. The area around E-1 is within Area C, where, according to Oslo II, Israel retained the powers of zoning and planning. As a result, much of the recently completed Palestinian construction there is illegal. In contrast, none of the Oslo Agreements prohibited Israeli settlement activity, though Israel undertook unilateral limitations upon itself in this area in recent years. Israeli construction of E-1 will not undermine Palestinian contiguity, but were Israel to lose control of E-1, the contiguity of Israel would be severely compromised.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Imperialism, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:: Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

371. Al Jazeera and Qatar: The Muslim Brothers' Dark Empire?

Author:: Zvi Mazel
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: There has been a significant presence of the Muslim Brothers (also known as the Muslim Brotherhood) in Qatar since the second half of the twentieth century. The first wave came from Egypt in 1954 after Nasser had smashed their organization. The next wave came from Syria in 1982 after Hafez el-Assad bombed their stronghold in Hama. The last group arrived after September 11, 2001 - from Saudi Arabia. In 1995, the present Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, deposed his father in a bloodless palace coup. One of his first steps was to establish the Al Jazeera satellite channel in 1996, which is the most viewed station in the Arab world with an estimated audience of some 60 million. There was never any doubt about the network's political orientation. Al Jazeera immediately launched scathing attacks on Israel during the Second Intifada and went on to incendiary broadcasts against the United States at the time of the Afghanistan conflict and over Iraq. It was later revealed to be in contact with bin Laden, and was the medium of choice for the video and audio cassettes of bin Laden and his men. During the U.S. war in Iraq, the Americans accused the station of being pro-Saddam, and after the war, of presenting the terrorist groups active in the country in a positive light. One of its reporters stationed in Baghdad always seemed to arrive suspiciously quickly, with his camera, at the site of terror attacks. During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Al Jazeera behaved as a Hizbullah spokesman. During the Gaza war, a senior Al Jazeera reporter stationed himself at Shifa Hospital, from where he broadcast a stream of carefully selected horror pictures. The Egyptian Maamun Fendi wrote in Asharq Alawsat that some 50 percent of the network's personnel belong to the Muslim Brothers. He believes that Qatar, by embracing the Brothers while hosting American bases, has found the perfect formula against retaliation by Arab leaders and attacks by Islamic extremists. Al Jazeera has become a weapon in the hands of an ambitious emir who may be driven by the Muslim Brothers and who is threatening the stability of the Middle East. With the Muslim Brothers increasingly aligned in recent years with Iran, by repeatedly attacking the Sunni Arab regimes and inciting against them, Al Jazeera is serving as an important instrument for Tehran and its effort to undermine their internal stability.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

372. The Russian Handicap to U.S. Iran Policy

Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: There are voices in the Obama Administration who believe that the Kremlin is able and willing to exert pressure on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, perceived geopolitical and economic benefits in the unstable Persian Gulf, in which American influence is on the wane, outweigh Russia's concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The Kremlin sees Iran not as a threat but as a partner or an ad-hoc ally to challenge U.S. influence. Today, both Russia and Iran favor a strategy of "multipolarity," both in the Middle East and worldwide. This strategy seeks to dilute American power, revise current international financial institutions, and weaken or neuter NATO and the OSCE, while forging a counterbalance to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Russian technological aid is evident throughout the Iranian missile and space programs. Russian scientists and expertise have played a direct and indirect role in these programs for years. According to some reports, Russian specialists are helping to develop the longer-range Shahab-5, and Russia has exported missile production facilities to Iran. Moscow has signed a contract to sell advanced long-range S-300 air-defense systems to Iran. Once Iran has air defenses to repel Israeli or American air strikes and nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles, it will possess the capacity to destroy Israel (an openly stated goal of the regime) and strike targets throughout the Middle East, in Europe, and the Indian subcontinent. Beyond that, if and when an ICBM capability is achieved, Tehran will be able to threaten the U.S. homeland directly. Given the substantial Russian interests and ambitions, any grand bargain would almost certainly require an excessively high price paid by the United States to the detriment of its friends and allies. Russia simply does not view the situation through the same lens as the U.S.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

373. The European Union Report on Jerusalem: Distortions and Omissions

Author:: Nadav Shragai
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: An imbalanced EU position paper on Jerusalem written in December 2008, and recently leaked to the media, completely ignores Israel's historical and legal rights to its capital. The EU attack refers primarily to the City of David, located just beyond Jerusalem's Old City walls, an area identified by archaeologists and historians as the location of King David's capital some 3,000 years ago. Archaeological excavations took place there during Ottoman rule, as well as under the ensuing British Mandatory rule, and they have continued under Israeli rule as well. About 20 years ago a wave of new, illegal construction by Palestinians began on the site, causing significant and sometimes irreversible damage to the antiquities there. The Jerusalem municipality intends to offer the delinquent residents generous compensation and alternative land in the city. Jerusalem has had a Jewish majority for the last 150 years - at least since 1864. Israel's position in Jerusalem under international law derives from the Palestine Mandate, where the League of Nations recognized "the historical tie between the Jewish people and Palestine," and called "for the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine." The 1949 Armistice Agreement between Israel and Jordan did not fix the final boundaries between the parties, but only the lines of military separation at the close of the 1948 war. At the demand of the Arab side, the Armistice Agreement stipulated that it did not serve to predetermine the rights of any party in the final resolution of conflict. In other words, upon the outbreak of the Six-Day War, the 1967 lines enjoyed no diplomatic status. In 1967, Israel agreed to allow the Muslim Waqf to manage the Temple Mount area, with a view toward preventing inter-religious conflict at one of the world's most sensitive sites. This was a huge concession on Israel's part that has never been properly recognized. By doing so, Israel has underscored its intention to assure freedom of access to members of all faiths at all of the holy sites in Jerusalem.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

374. The Obama Administration and Implications for Freedom and Democracy in the Middle East

Author:: Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 04-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The Obama administration marks the return of a so-called "realist" approach and an intentional downplaying of President Bush's vision of an America that would use its power actively to advance freedom around the world. Few will lament the demise of Bush's "Freedom Agenda," which came to be seen as dangerous naivete which risked the stability of the region and with it Israel's security. The height of folly was the Palestinian elections in January 2006 when, in contradiction to the Oslo Accords, Hamas was allowed to compete and ultimately win without laying down its weapons. Too late, the administration recognized it could no longer take the risk of bringing potentially hostile forces to power through democratic elections. Unfortunately, neither approach addresses the structural and demographic time bombs in the region. A youth "bulge" requires the creation of 100 million new jobs by 2010, according to the World Bank. Yet if economic reform is to be advanced and sustained, democratic development must also take place. The U.S. government can use Arab governments' insecurity regarding Iran as leverage to encourage real reform. This is particularly true for Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia - now engaged in the ideological fight of their lives with Iran and its reactionary allies. Only by establishing a new bargain with these regimes that stresses the need for them to respect internal civil and political rights, while forging a joint response to the reactionary threat, can the U.S. offer a true alternative to theocratic and minority rule. This is not to say that democratic and economic reform need be the priority for the West, but it must remain a priority, if otherwise intractable problems which pose a longer-term national security threat are to be addressed. Allowing autocrats to continue to get away with inaction will simply make the coming tidal wave of Iranian-style revolutions larger and more damaging, placing Israel's existence in even greater jeopardy than it is now.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Egypt

375. The Role of Radical Islamic Groups in Israel: Implications for Israeli-Arab Coexistence

Author:: Mordechai Kedar
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Many in the Arab world felt deep humiliation due to George W. Bush. The Islamic view is that Islam came to the world to replace Judaism and Christianity, and all of the sudden comes a religious Christian president and occupies Iraq, the capital of the Islamic Abbasid Caliphate and the beating heart of Arab history. So when Bush left office, this was viewed as a victory for Allah over the modern Crusaders. The core question is to whom does this country belong? According to the Arab narrative, this has been an Arab Islamic state since the days of Omar, the caliph who conquered the country in the seventh century. According to Islamic tradition, he declared that the country between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River is waqf land, meaning it belongs forever to Muslims all over the world, and no one else could ever have it According to Islam, land can only go one way, to become Islamic, and it can never go the other way, just like Spain, Sicily, and parts of the Balkans, which at different stages of history were lands of Islam. This is why Hamas and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood cannot even begin to consider recognizing the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state on the land of Palestine. At the same time, Jews feel that this country belongs to them. From the Jewish perspective, this country was populated by Jews and two Jewish kingdoms were here until 1900 years ago. We Jews were expelled with no justification and we came back to our country. This is what gives justification to the Jews having our state here and not in Uganda, Argentina or Birobijan. It even appears in the Koran that this country had been given to the Jews. In 2006 a document approved by the Committee of Arab Local Authorities in Israel - entitled: "The Future Vision of the Palestinian Arabs in Israel and their Relations with the State" - opened with the statement: "Israel is the outcome of a colonialist action which was initiated by the Jewish-Zionist elites in Europe and in the West." To call Israel a colonialist state means a total denial of Jewish history, and echoes the Islamic approach to Jewish history. According to this approach, since Islam came to the world in the year 622 CE with the hijra of Mohammed from Mecca to Medina, all of history before that time lost any meaning or significance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

376. The Obama Administration Reaches Out to Syria: Implications for Israel

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: In early March, two senior U.S. officials traveled to Damascus for the highest-level bilateral meeting in years, part of the new administration's policy of "engagement." Washington seeks to test Damascus' intentions to distance itself from Iran. While a "strategic realignment" of Damascus is unlikely, in the short term the diplomatic opening is sure to alleviate international pressure on Damascus. The Assad regime made no secret of its preference for Barack Obama last November. At the same time, Syrian regime spokesmen appear to be setting preconditions for an effective dialogue, saying Washington would first have to drop the Syria Accountability Act sanctions and remove Syria from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. U.S. diplomatic engagement with Syria comes at a particularly sensitive time, just a few months before the Lebanese elections, where the "March 14" ruling coalition faces a stiff challenge from the Hizbullah-led "March 8" opposition, and Washington has taken steps to shore up support for its allies. Should the U.S. dialogue with Damascus progress, Washington might consent to take on an enhanced role in resumed Israeli-Syrian negotiations. However, U.S. participation on the Syria track could conceivably result in additional pressure for Israeli concessions in advance of any discernible modifications in Syria's posture toward Hizbullah and Hamas. Based on Syria's track record, there is little reason to be optimistic that the Obama administration will succeed where others have failed. Washington should not necessarily be faulted for trying, as long as the administration remains cognizant of the nature of the regime. Damascus today remains a brutal dictatorship, which derives its regional influence almost exclusively through its support for terrorism in neighboring states and, by extension, through its 30-year strategic alliance with Tehran.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Syria

377. The Future of the Two-State Solution

Author:: Giora Eiland
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: While the outlines of a two-state solution are generally known, the maximum that any government of Israel will be ready to offer the Palestinians and still survive politically is much less than the minimum that any Palestinian leader can accept. The real gap between both sides is much greater than what is perceived, and that gap is growing. The level of trust between both sides has changed. There are fewer Israelis who believe that the real intention of the Palestinians is to have only a small Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. Furthermore, there is less trust in the Palestinians' abilities to keep their commitments, even if they undertake the right commitments. In Gaza today there is, for all practical purposes, an independent state led by Hamas. It is not part of the Palestinian Authority because that is what the Palestinians decided. If there is an accountable state in Gaza, although it is an enemy state, Israel has a degree of deterrence because there is another party that has something to lose. Current Israeli policy claims that Israel's goal is to bring about the collapse of the Hamas government in Gaza, but that is not going to happen. If we make Gaza double or triple its current size by adding an additional 600 sq. km. of territory from Egyptian Sinai, this could give Gaza the space it needs. Suddenly Gaza would have the space to build a new city of a million people, along with a real seaport and airport, and to create the conditions that would make economic expansion possible At the same time, Israel needs 600 sq. km. in the West Bank because the 1967 line is unacceptable from a security point of view. In return, Israel could give to Egypt 600 sq. km. in the Negev in southern Israel. At the end of the day no one loses land, while multilateral swaps enable us to solve the currently intractable problem of Gaza and solve Israeli needs in the West Bank. Egypt can gain significant benefits from this arrangement. The new seaport and airport next to Egypt can become major economic connections between the Gulf and Europe. Furthermore, Egypt could get a land corridor to enable movement from Egypt to the rest of the Middle East without the need to cross Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

378. The George Mitchell Appointment: The Tactics of "Symmetrical Negotiations" May Not Work in "Asymmetrical Conflicts"

Author:: Lenny Ben-David
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The appointment of former Senator George J. Mitchell as Middle East envoy was warmly received in Washington, Jerusalem, and Ramallah. Yet, the Middle East that Mitchell will confront today is much changed from the one he wrestled with eight years ago as chairman of the 2001 Sharm el-Sheikh Fact-Finding Committee, which was created to investigate the outbreak of the Second Intifada. The 2001 Mitchell Report was seen as an "even-handed" document, reflecting President Clinton's directive to "strive to steer clear of...finger-pointing. As a result, the committee attempted - even at the risk of straining credibility - to split the blame for the crisis. The Mitchell Committee could not ignore Palestinian terrorism and the Palestinian use of civilians as human shields. Israel's transgression - and there had to be one to balance Palestinian sins - was its settlement activity. The committee recommended a "freeze [of] all settlement activity, including the 'natural growth' of existing settlements." Israelis objected that the freeze - never mandated in the interim stages of the Oslo Accords - would serve to reward the Palestinians' terrorism. The committee was appointed before the 9/11 al-Qaeda attack. Its report came prior to the capture of two weapons-laden ships bound for Gaza - the Santorini in May 2001 and the Karine A in January 2002 - and prior to President Bush's 2004 recognition of "new realities on the ground [in the territories], including already existing major Israeli populations centers." Bush continued: "[I]t is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949." The 2001 Mitchell Report was issued years before Hamas' coup in Gaza. Hamas remains dedicated to Israel's destruction. Its alliance with Iran and its affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood mark Hamas as an enemy of moderate Arab regimes. Hamas may yet prove to be a fatal flaw to Mitchell's axiom that "there is no such thing as a conflict that can't be ended."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

379. Averting Iranian Influence in Post-War Gaza: The Rehabilitation Issue

Author:: Shimon Shapira
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Immediately upon the end of the fighting in Gaza, the international community will enlist on behalf of an extensive rehabilitation project to enable the Palestinian population to return to their homes and get on with their civil and economic lives. It is of prime importance to prevent Iran from acquiring influence in post-war Gaza through any assistance programs. Following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Iran and Hizbullah grasped the political and economic significance of the rehabilitation project in the Shiite areas of southern Lebanon damaged during the war. Hizbullah directed the rehabilitation work, while totally ignoring the central Lebanese government, and in this manner regained and even reinforced its influence within the Shiite community. Iran is already positioning itself for influence in post-war Gaza. On January 14, 2009, the Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Ali Akbar Mohtashami, arrived in Lebanon heading a 40-man delegation in order to direct Iranian support for Hamas. The main objective for Israel and the international community should be to deny Iran the attainment of this objective and to transform the Palestinian Authority, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, into the principal factor, along with Egypt, entrusted with the rehabilitation work in Gaza.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

380. Georgia-Russia: Still Insecure and Dangerous

Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Ten months after the “August war” between Georgia and Russia, violent incidents and the lack of an effective security regime in and around the conflict zones of South Ossetia and Abkhazia create a dangerous atmosphere in which extensive fighting could again erupt. Russia has not complied with key aspects of the cease-fire agreements that President Medvedev reached in August/September 2008 with French President Sarkozy in his then EU presidency role. Its 15 June Security Council veto of an extension of the sixteen-year-old UN observer mission mandate in Georgia and Abkhazia and its apparent intention to require the removal of the mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) by the end of the month are blows to regional security that will further fuel tensions. Most of the on-the-ground conflict resolution machinery is thus being dismantled. Moscow should review its counterproductive position and work for a reasonable compromise allowing the UN and OSCE monitors to continue their important work.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eastern Europe, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

381. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan

Author:: Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states.) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation — including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census — have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Sudan

382. What to do about Bosnia and Herzegovina?: The Case for Accelerated NATO Membership and OSCE Coordination of Constitutional Reform

Author:: Edward P. Joseph
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The policy choice in Bosnia revolves around one question: how much time does the country have? If one believes that the country is reasonably stable, that another election will produce more cooperative leaders, and that Bosnia's "EU future" is assured, then the way forward is clear: cede international leadership in Bosnia from the U.S. to the European Union.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

383. Haiti: Is Economic Security Possible if Diplomats and Donors Do Their Part?

Author:: Robert Perito
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In 2009, Haiti has been the subject of an unprecedented diplomatic initiative led by the United Nations. In rapid succession, Haiti received visits from the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the UN Security Council, former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and numerous senior delegations from Caribbean and South American countries. In April, Haiti was the subject of an international donors' conference hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank that reaffirmed previous commitments and pledged $324 million in new economic assistance. The visits and the donors' conference were preceded by a UN sponsored report by Oxford economist and bestselling author Paul Collier on specific steps that could help Haiti achieve economic security.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: South America, Caribbean, and Haiti

384. Guinea-Bissau: Beyond Rule of the Gun

Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na Wai, on 1 March 2009 and Presi- dent Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending the election the constitution requires. That the killings occurred only months after the acclaimed November parliamentary elections, however, indicates that, in current circumstances, the democratic process cannot cope with the rule of the gun, as well as the extent to which the military's use of force has overwhelmed state institutions. Without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt a slide into further violence. Elites need to stand up to the military, but they require support. The international community should work for an international or hybrid commission of inquiry into the killings. Security system reform needs to be improve d by better international coordination and creation of a national commission with enhanced autonomy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea-Bissau

385. Côte d'Ivoire : les impératifs de sortie de crise

Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Le 4 mars 2007, les deux principaux protagonistes de la crise ivoirienne signaient l'accord politique de Ouagadougou (APO). Ce compromis a, dans un pre-mier temps, apporté un environnement de paix en Côte d'Ivoire. La ligne de démarcation entre les deux pro-tagonistes a été démantelée. Un nouveau gouvernement a été formé et les bases ont été jetées pour apporter une réponse aux deux questions-clés du conflit : l'identité et la citoyenneté ivoiriennes et la légitimité du pouvoir. Mais, plus de deux ans après son adoption, l'APO va mal. Une sortie de crise sera possible uniquement si les engagements pris dans la capitale burkinabé sont enfin suivis d'effets. Sortir la Côte d'Ivoire de sa décen-nie de crise ne nécessitera pas seulement l'organisation d'élections crédibles mais impliquera également des progrès significatifs dans le processus de désarmement ainsi qu'une véritable réunification de l'administration. Ceci demandera la remobilisation de la facilitation burkinabé et une pression accrue des partenaires inter-nationaux sur les acteurs du conflit.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:: Africa

386. Rebuilding Gaza: Putting people before politics

Author:: Sara Hamood
Publication Date:: 06-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In June 2009 the blockade on the Gaza Strip enters its third year. The intense closure policy, coupled with the government of Israel's recent military operation 'Cast Lead', has had a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of one and a half million Gazans, pushing them further into poverty and aid dependency. Parties to the conflict and the international community have, to varying degrees, prioritised their own political objectives over people's rights and needs, leaving Gazans sitting on the ruins of their homes. By attempting to isolate Hamas, the government of Israel and key international donor governments and institutions have in fact isolated the people of Gaza, thereby reducing chances of securing a peaceful, just and durable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

387. Fragile states and the international response: in pursuit of security or development?

Author:: Koen Vlassenroot
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In the pursuit of security and development in Africa, more and more reference is being made to the concept of fragile states. This paper explores the meaning of this concept and considers the attention that is being paid to it as a consequence of integrating security and development into the policy of the major donor countries. In an African context state fragility is a cause of numerous conflicts, but also a major focal point of peace processes and donor interventions. This paper is intended to be a warning against a too narrow focus on security in the process of combating fragility. It pleads for an integrated policy, based on the pursuit of sustainable development and emphasises the strengthening of the authority and power of the state and the promotion of local economic and social development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Economics, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa

388. The Relationship between the Responsibility to Protect and the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict

Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) holds an open debate on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict (POC) twice yearly. Following the UNSC's reaffirmation of the World Summit agreement on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) populations from genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Resolutions 1674 (2006) and 1894 (2009) on POC, discussion of R2P has been an important component of these debates. This is reflected in government statements, presentations by the Emergency Relief Coordinator, and in the Secretary-General's 2007 report on POC where he referred to the agreement on R2P as a "cardinal achievement."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: United Nations

389. The Justice Dilemma in Uganda

Author:: Scott Worden
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On February 18, 2008 the Ugandan government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) reached agreement on an accountability and reconciliation accord that would provide for prosecution in Uganda of senior LRA leaders most responsible for atrocities committed over the course of the country's 20-year long civil conflict. The agreement also provides that lower level perpetrators will be held accountable by traditional justice mechanisms indigenous to Northern Uganda, where much of the violence occurred.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

390. Engaging the Darfur Diaspora for Peace

Author:: Susan Hayward
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In partnership with Concordis International and the Preparatory Committee for the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation (DDDC), USIP held a consultation with approximately30 members of the North American Darfur diaspora community from February 12-14, 2008.Representative of Darfur's constituencies, this group of Darfurians traveled to Washington, D.C. from throughout the U.S. and Canada in order to address a broad range of issues related to the conflict in their homeland. Through small-group brainstorming and plenary ession debates, the group developed a set of consensus recommendations aimed at creating the conditions necessary for a sustainable safe and secure environment to prevail in the troubled region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Canada

391. Negotiating Peace in Darfur

Author:: Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: As the planned deployment of the joint UN and African Union (AU) hybrid peacekeeping force to Darfur begins, these institutions are placing more emphasis on finding a lasting political solution to the conflict in Darfur. After the failure of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA), the international community realized the importance of involving all the key rebel movements in peace negotiations. Planned peace talks in Sirte, Libya have been delayed in an effort to convince key rebel leaders to participate.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Africa

392. Armenia: Picking up the Pieces

Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Political Violence, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

393. Chechnya Weekly: KBR Interior Minister: Republic's Militants Well-Organized and Trained

Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Bomb disposal experts with the Interior Ministry for the Southern Federal District's counterterrorist Center 'T' defused a large bomb in a wooded area three kilometers outside the village of Babugent in the Cherkesk district of the Kabardino-Balkaria Republic (KBR), Kavkazky Uzel reported on February 28. "The explosive device was located in a hiding place," a source in the KBR Interior Ministry told the website. "It consisted of a gas-cylinder with a capacity of 27 liters, four bags with a mixture of ammonium nitrate and aluminum powder, a five-liter plastic canister of kerosene and a demolition cord." KBR Interior Minister Yury Tomchak told a meeting of the ministry's public council on February 26 that 53 members of "illegal armed formations" are wanted by the republican authorities, Interfax reported. "Until recently the law-enforcement bodies were searching for 42 NFV [illegal armed formation] members, 14 of whom are on the federal wanted list and 10 who are on the international wanted list," Tomchak said. He added that the republic's Interior Ministry, with the assistance of the republican branch of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor General's Office, have put another 11 members of "illegal armed formations" on the republic's wanted list over the last two weeks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

394. Chechnya Weekly: Voting in Ingushetia and Chechnya Again Scrutinized

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ingushetia's election commission reported on March 4 that 92.3 percent of the republic's eligible voters voted in the Russian presidential and republican legislative elections, both of which were held on March 2, Kavkazky Uzel reported. According to the commission, 91.6 percent of those in Ingushetia who voted in the presidential election cast their ballots for Dmitry Medvedev, while 6.1 percent voted for Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, 1.5 percent voted for Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov and 0.1 percent voted for Democratic Party leader Andrei Bogdanov. In the election for Ingushetia's People's Assembly held the same day, the pro-Kremlin United Russia party received 74.09 percent of the vote, the LDPR won 11.06 percent, the pro-Kremlin A Just Russia party received 7.39 percent of the vote and the Communist Party won 7.34 percent.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

395. Chechnya Weekly: Zyazikov Dismisses His Cabinet

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Ingushetian President Murat Zyazikov on March 12 dismissed his cabinet, which is chaired by Ibragim Malsagov, as well as the republic's local administration heads. Newsru.com reported that the dismissed cabinet will remain in place until a new one is formed and that First Vice-Premier Khov Yevloev will serve as the republican government's acting chairman, replacing Malsagov.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

396. Chechnya Weekly: At Least 10 People Reportedly Killed in Chechen Village Battle

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chechen rebel, pro-Moscow government and independent sources alike reported on March 19-20 that a large-scale battle had taken place in the village of Alkhazurovo in Chechnya's Urus-Martan district. Kavkazky Uzel reported on March 20 that the battle had taken place the previous evening and that rebels had burned down the village administration building and killed five law-enforcement officers along with two civilians. At least six other people, including two women and a teenager, were wounded in the fighting, the website reported. "To all appearances, up to 15 militants took part in yesterday's armed clash in the village of Alkhazurovo," a Chechen police officer told Kavkazky Uzel. "At the moment, actions to find and neutralize this gang are continuing. The militants burned the local administration building, and five employees of power structures (four policemen and an employee of the military prosecutor's office) and two local residents were killed."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

397. Chechnya Weekly: Dagestani Journalists, Police and Young People Victims of Violence

Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Gadzhi Abashilov, the head of GTRK Dagestan, the Dagestani affiliate of Russia's state television and radio company, was killed in a drive-by shooting as he traveled home from work in Dagestan's capital, Makhachkala, on March 21. His driver was seriously injured in the attack. Just hours earlier, Ilyas Shurpaev, a Dagestan-born journalist who covered the North Caucasus for state television's Channel One, was found stabbed and strangled in his Moscow apartment after a neighbor reported a fire in the apartment. Russian news reports quoted investigators as saying that the perpetrators had set fire to the apartment in an attempt to conceal the crime.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and North Caucasus

398. Chechnya Weekly: Medvedev and Kadyrov: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?

Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Kavkazky Uzel, citing the press service of the Chechen president and government, reported on April 2 that President-elect Dmitry Medvedev and Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov met and discussed issues related to the socio-economic development of the Chechen Republic. Forum.msk.ru reported that the meeting took place in the Kremlin and that during a portion of the meeting that was open to the press, they discussed changes that have taken place in Chechnya over the past year. "Let's talk about the whole complex of issues: how work to develop the republic's socio-economic potential is going; what achievements [and] what problems there are," the website quoted Medvedev as saying in opening the meeting.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

399. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Rebels Step Up Operations

Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Kavkazky Uzel reported on April 8 that Chechnya's rebels have stepped up their activities and even taken control of villages on at least two occasions during the last month. With the arrival of spring and the appearance of foliage, which works to the advantage of guerrilla fighters, rebel units have noticeably stepped up their actions in the republic's foothills and mountainous regions, the website reported. While last month's incident in the village of Alkhazurovo, in which a large contingent of rebel fighters took over the village and held it for several hours, killing five policemen and burning down the local administration building before leaving (Chechnya Weekly, March 20 and April 3), received significant press coverage, a similar rebel operation in the village of Yandi-Kotar in Chechnya's Achkhoi-Martan district received none.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

400. Chechnya Weekly: Chechen Parliament Asks Defense Minister to Deal with Vostok Battalion

Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chechnya's parliament on April 17 adopted a resolution calling on Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov either to dissolve Vostok, the elite Chechen-manned battalion that answers to the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff, or to replace its leaders, including its formal commander, Sulim Yamadaev. A road collision between Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov's motorcade and a Vostok convoy that occurred near the Chechen town of Argun on April 14 was followed by an armed confrontation between Vostok fighters, including Sulim Yamadaev's younger brother, Badrudin, who commands one of the battalion's platoons, and fighters loyal to Kadyrov. According to Reuters, 18 or more people were killed in a shootout that followed the traffic accident (see Andrei Smirnov's article).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS