Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic: Conflict Resolution

101. Licensing Afghan Opium for Medicinal Use: Why It Won't Work

Author:: David Mansfield and William A. Byrd
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: With large increases in Afghan opium cultivation and production in 2013 and 2014, there is a risk that resulting frustration may give rise to a search for extreme but unproductive solutions. There are no easy solutions to the illegal narcotics problem. The proposal that Afghanistan could shift to licensed production of opium for pain medications will not work. Due to severe problems with governance, rule of law and security, opium licensing in Afghanistan would be subject to extremely high leakages. Afghanistan's comparative advantage in supplying the illicit market means that it would likely expand cultivation to meet demand in both markets. Afghanistan is a high-cost producer of opium, and prices for licensed opium are much lower than on the illegal market, so profits might well be marginal or even negative. Existing producers of licensed opiates— Australia, Turkey, India, France and others—would strongly oppose any move to let Afghanistan become a competitor on the licensed market. Even if a more liberalized market for opiates is envisioned, technological advances and modern techniques in other countries mean that Afghanistan could not be a competitive producer.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Turkey, India, France, and Australia

102. Toward a Lasting Ceasefire in Gaza

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: More than seven weeks after the most devastating war yet waged in Gaza, its underlying causes remain unresolved. Hamas did not achieve an end to Gaza's closure; Israel did not attain the demilitarisation of the Strip or Hamas. The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) remains unrepresentative and its credibility continues to fade. Fatah's popularity has sunk while Hamas's has increased to levels unseen since its 2006 electoral victory. Small steps toward reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO have been taken, but they are very distant from the end goal of a unified, representative Palestinian leadership. But in reconciliation lies the only hope of achieving a sustainable ceasefire and, more broadly, of bringing Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank under one authority.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

103. From Crisis to Catastrophe: South Sudan's man-made crisis — and how the world must act now to prevent catastrophe in 2015

Author:: Isabel Martins
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: South Sudan is facing the world's worst food crisis, driven by the conflict that erupted in December 2013. Unless there is an end to the fighting, this food crisis will continue. Without far stronger international pressure, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved. International diplomacy – as well as aid and the protection of civilians on the ground – is urgently needed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

104. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

105. The Die Is Cast: Confronting Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe

Author:: Christopher Musselman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Ukraine crisis demonstrates that European security can no longer be taken for granted and that NATO and the broader transatlantic community are struggling to address emerging security challenges. Whether Russia is classified revanchist, expanding its sphere of influence, or seeking to create regional hegemony, Putin's actions in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine are a stark reminder that the era of geopolitical competition in Europe is far from over. The transatlantic community must be ready to deal with similar challenges in the decades ahead.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

106. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

107. Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As Aleppo goes, so goes Syria's rebellion. The city is crucial to the mainstream opposition's military viability as well as its morale, thus to halting the advance of the Islamic State (IS). After an alliance of armed rebel factions seized its eastern half in July 2012, Aleppo for a time symbolised the opposition's optimism and momentum; in the following months, it exposed the rebels' limits, as their progress slowed, and they struggled to win over the local population. Today, locked in a two-front war against the regime and IS, their position is more precarious than at any time since the fighting began. Urgent action is required to prevent the mainstream opposition's defeat: either for Iran and Russia to press the regime for de-escalation, to showcase their willingness to confront IS instead of exploiting its presence to further strengthen Damascus; or, more realistically, for the U.S., Europe and regional allies to qualitatively and quantitatively improve support to local, non-jihadi rebel factions in Aleppo. Any eventual possibility of a negotiated resolution of the war depends on one course or the other being followed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia and Syria

108. Nordic-Baltic Support to Military and Security Capacity Building?

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Support to Military and Security Capacity Building is expanding as a way to strengthen the resilience of states and enhance their ability to manage conflict and insecurity constructively. It offers new openings for Nordic and Baltic engagements and partnerships.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping

109. Transforming armed non-state actors Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: It is necessary to rethink the assumptions and theory of change of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programs in current situations of armed violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, War, and Armed Struggle

110. After Ukraine: Keeping the Arctic Stable

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The greatest challenge to the stability of the Arctic actually comes from outside the region itself, but there are still strong reasons to be optimistic about security in the Arctic region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Arctic

111. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

112. Supporting Negotiations for Peace in Afghanistan

Author:: Janel B. Galvanek
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: This brief looks in detail at the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and examines some of the major challenges and impediments to ensuring a successful peace agreement with the armed groups of the country. More specifically, it highlights four themes which the international community can address with the incoming government in Afghanistan in order to support and advance the peace process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Afghanistan, War on Terror, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

113. The Responsibility to Protect: Ensuring the Norm's Relevance After Libya, Côte d'Ivoire and Syria

Author:: Maissaa Almustafa, Evan Cinq-Mars, and Matthew Redding
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Since its endorsement in 2005, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has become central to how the global community responds to genocide and mass atrocities. The norm presently faces the “risk of relevance” as a result of the interventions in Libya and Côte d'Ivoire and the deadlock over the situation in Syria. The recommendations in this brief will strengthen preventive capacities, maximize the protection afforded to civilians and ensure the norm's future relevance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Genocide, Human Rights, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Africa and Arabia

114. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:: Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

115. Five Pillars of a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post 2014

Author:: Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Most of the conditions for a successful transition into a stable Afghanistan would require appropriate bureaucratic and institutional mechanisms to ensure that the momentum for change is harnessed and that timely follow-ups take place. The major parties with stakes in the security of Afghanistan will need a roadmap and a framework for achieving the policy outcomes identified in this policy brief.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

116. Women in Conflict Mediation: Why It Matters

Author:: Andrea Ó Súilleabháin and Marie O'Reilly
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Traditional approaches to international conflict mediation—in which statesmen hammer out agreements between governments, or between governments and well-defined rebel movements—are falling short in the face of 21st century violence. Interstate conflict has decreased dramatically, and today one off civil wars with clearly defined parties are relatively rare: 90 percent of civil wars occur in countries already affected by conflict. Despite international efforts to mediate and implement peace agreements, between a quarter and a half of all civil wars recur within five years.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping

117. Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks

Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Confrontation, low-intensity but volatile, between Azerbaijan and Armenia has entered a period of heightened sensitivity. Peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh bogged down in 2011, accelerating an arms race and intensifying strident rhetoric. Terms like “Blitzkrieg'', “pre-emptive strike'' and ''total war” have gained currency with both sides' planners. An immediate concern is military miscalculation, with implications that could far exceed those of a localised post-Soviet frozen conflict, as the South Caucasus, a region where big powers meet and compete, is now also a major energy corridor. Clashes increasingly occur along the Azerbaijani-Armenian frontier far from Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict's original focus. Tensions have also spread to areas along the border with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan where Azerbaijani and Turkish exercised in July. A subsequent firefight produced casualties, and Armenia staged its own war games near the Azerbaijan border in September. Vigorous international engagement is needed to lessen chances of violent escalation during coming weeks and months.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, International Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

118. Kenya's elections: the peace lobotomy?

Author:: Jean-Christophe Host
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This Africa Policy Brief will look at the Kenyan elections of March 4th 2013 and examine what lessons can be learned from them. The argument that will be developed throughout this paper is that, although the violence was contained, the elections were not a success, because the drivers of conflict in Kenya remain untouched. The underlying reason being that the informal power of the political class still outweighs all the formal institutions and plans put in place. The ruling elite has acknowledged the drivers of conflict in Kenya for years but has shown very little interest in resolving them, because that could influence the drivers of their power.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

119. Mali: filling the void

Author:: Hans Hoebeke
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Mali, from model of democracy to a deep political, institutional crisis and war in the course of a few months. This policy brief offers an analysis of the Malian conflict looking into the national political dimension as well as the entire region where already present dynamics were reinforced by the Libyan war of 2011. It also looks into the regional and international response mechanisms.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, and North Africa

120. Dealing with land issues and conflict in eastern Congo: towards an integrated and participatory approach

Author:: Koen Vlassenroot
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: There is an increased recognition that land issues are a key driver and sustaining factor of conflict in eastern DRC. Scholars and practitioners have identified a number of critical land-related factors contributing to violence and conflict, including a huge diversity of land governance forms; the existence of overlapping legal frameworks and the weakness of the statutory land law; competition between indigenous and migrant communities; limited access to arable land in demographically dense areas; the weak performance of the administration and justice system in the reconciliation and arbitration of land disputes; growing stress on local resources caused by massive displacement; the expansion of artisanal and small-scale mining; and increased competition between elites for the control over land and the consequent land concentration.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Peace Studies, Post Colonialism, War, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

121. Education for young people in fragile situations – the need for support

Author:: Birgitte Lind Petersen
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: With massive unemployment, insecure livelihoods and unpredictable political transitions in many fragile states, there is an urgent need to train and educate young people – tomorrow's citizens. Governments and donors now realise this, yet, according to recent documentation, donors commit only 10% of what is needed to educate and train youth in fragile situations, and provide even less. UNESCO, among others, points to the serious underfunding as the most problematic aspect of aid to education in fragile states, especially at secondary school level.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Demographics, Education, War, and Labor Issues

122. Great Expectations: Iran's New President and the Nuclear Talks

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani's 4 August swearing in as Iran's president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country's nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West's ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

123. Oil, Conflict, and U.S. National Interests

Author:: Jeff D. Colgan
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Although the threat of “resource wars” over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. No other commodity has had such an impact on international security.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

124. Macedonia - A country in crisis

Author:: Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Macedonia is a country in deep trouble. Under a veneer of normality lies a climate of deep mistrust between all the political parties and between the main ethnic communities. Several incidents of inter-ethnic violence took place in the capital city earlier this year and are on the increase. Political dialogue, insofar as it exists between the parties, remains confrontational.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

125. Civil wars: a very short introduction

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The civil war in Syria is not the first of its kind to be extraordinarily complex, violent and difficult to settle. Lasting ten times longer than international wars (on average 7 years), civil wars are the longest, and tragically, the bloodiest of all forms of human conflict. Although 2% of countries in the world are undergoing some form of civil war at any given time, the phenomenon is less studied than international wars – in part because it is so much more complex to understand, prevent and bring to an end, as the Syrian example shows.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Welfare, Peace Studies, War, Political Theory, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Syria

126. Partnering in crisis management: ten years of EU-UN cooperation

Author:: Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: A decade ago, on 24 September 2003, the UN and the EU signed a Joint Declaration on UN-EU Cooperation in Crisis Management. At the time, the two institutions had limited experience of one another, and apart from some cooperation between the European Commission and UN agencies dealing with development and humanitarian affairs, very little had brought them together in the field of crisis management.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Europe and United Nations

127. To Catch a Fogle

Author:: Ondřej Ditrych
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The Putin regime seems to have chosen to publicly expose Ryan Fogle not simply as a “tit-for-tat” for the embarrassing release of footage by the FBI of the meetings of “illegals” detained in the U.S. (2010) with Russian diplomats, but to gesture toward domestic audiences and to humiliate the U.S. in order to weaken its position in mutual negotiations, knowing that Washington may not be in the position to retaliate.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Intelligence, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

128. Centrafrique : l'intervention de la dernière chance

Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Durant les neuf derniers mois, ce qui restait de l'Etat centrafricain s'est effondré avec de graves conséquences humanitaires (400 000 personnes sont déplacées et presque la moitié de la population a besoin d'aide humanitaire). Le gouvernement de transition et la force de sécurité régionale ont été incapables de freiner la chute dans l'anarchie aussi bien en zone rurale qu'en zone urbaine et notamment à Bangui. Après plusieurs mois de passivité et à la suite de tueries, la communauté internationale a pris conscience des conséquences de la faillite de la RCA. Malheureusement, la détérioration de la situation est bien plus rapide que la mobilisation internationale et Bangui est au bord de l'explosion. Dans l'immédiat, le Conseil de sécurité devrait fournir un mandat sous chapitre 7 à la Mission internationale de soutien à la Centrafrique sous conduite africaine (Misca) épaulée par les forces françaises pour rétablir l'ordre dans Bangui dans un premier temps puis se déployer dans d'autres villes. Par la suite, la réconciliation religieuse devrait être privilégiée et des mesures de stabilisation devraient être appliquées.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa

129. Against the odds – capacity development of fragile state institutions

Author:: Birgitte Lind Petersen
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The need to support central state institutions in fragile situations by prioritising capacity development has recently been elevated to a shared global concern as a result of the New Deal developed through the forum of the International Dialogue for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding. Peacebuilding and statebuilding are perceived as the most important aims of aid, and capacity development is central to achieving these. The emphasis on a country-led process indicates the need to develop capacities to lead such processes. Also, the commitment to joint development of a plan, support to political dialogue and leadership, transparency, risk sharing, strengthening of country systems along with the strengthening of capacities, all depend on or encompass strong elements of capacity development. This policy brief elaborates some major issues to be considered by donors supporting capacity development of central state institutions in fragile situations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State

130. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict

Author:: Thomas Pierret
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

131. Syria's Sectarian Ripples across the Gulf

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Like the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon's 2006 war, Syria's internecine conflict has enabled the Gulf's ruling families, media commentators, clerics, parliamentarians, and activists to invoke and amplify Sunni-Shia identities, often for goals that are rooted in local power politics. By-products of the mounting sectarian tension include the fraying of reform cooperation among sects and regions, and pressure on the Gulf's formal political institutions. Traditional and social media have served to amplify the most polarizing voices as well as provide reform activists new means for cross-sectarian communication that circumvent governmental efforts to control or block such activities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

132. Sunni-Shia Relations After the Iraq War

Author:: Fanar Haddad
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Iraq, as elsewhere in the Middle East, the social, political, and technological changes of the 21st century are giving birth to a new sectarian landscape. The three most consequential drivers behind the change in sectarian relations have been the political change in Iraq of 2003; the near simultaneous spread of new media and social networking in the Arab world; and – perhaps as a consequence of the first two – the ongoing search for alternatives to familiar but moribund forms of authoritarianism, as demonstrated most dramatically by the “Arab Spring.” 2003 highlighted the uncomfortable fact that there were multiple, indeed contradictory, visions of what it meant to be an Iraqi and by extension what it meant to be a part of the Arab world. New media, social networking, user-generated websites, and private satellite channels helped to make Iraq's accelerated sectarianization contagious. The mainstreaming of sectarian polemics has increased the relevance of religious, doctrinal, and dogmatic differences in views regarding the sectarian “other,” a particularly dangerous development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

133. Sectarianism in Lebanon and Syria: The Dynamics of Mutual Spill-Over

Author:: Joseph Bahout
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: When the Arab revolutions reached Syria, the Sunni-Shia cleavage in Lebanon was already well in the making. Syria's turmoil only added fuel to an existing fire in Lebanon. Syria's crisis is intensifying Sunni-Shia tensions in Lebanon on two levels, symbolic and identity-based on the one hand, and geopolitical or interest based, on the other hand. The shift toward identity-based or symbolic forms of sectarianism can probably be explained by the existential character the struggle in the Levant is taking, whereby both “communities,” however imagined or over-constructed, are coming to perceive themselves as defending not only their share of resources or power, but their very survival. Lebanon's minority communities – including Christian and Druze – are increasingly anxious about the changing regional environment. Lebanon and Syria must face the difficult equation of sectarian diversity and national unity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

134. The Syrian Conflict's Impact on Lebanese Politics

Author:: Melani Cammett
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian crisis has had a negative impact on Lebanon's political scene, including the dynamics among political factions within and across the country's major sectarian communities. The political fragmentation of the Sunni community has implications for the growing trend toward political violence triggered by the Syrian conflict. The rise of challengers and the decline of centralized authority within the Sunni community further increase the probability of violence perpetrated by in-group factions. Despite the pressures from the Syrian conflict, mounting sectarian tensions will not inexorably spark another all-out civil war. If Lebanon does not move past the current political deadlock and stagnation, the spillover from the Syrian crisis stands to undermine the country's stability in the longer term.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

135. Violence Against Women and Girls in Emergencies

Author:: Caroline Green
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In every humanitarian crisis, humanitarian agencies, donors , and governments should seek to prevent and respond to violence against women and girls (VAWG ) and gender-based violence (GBV) in emergencies, by: Reducing the risk s of GBV/ VAW G for beneficiaries of humanitarian programmes; Supporting long-term efforts to tackle the causes of GBV/VAWG in recovery and transition strategies; Supporting survivors' access to safe, confidential services ; and Placing all of the above in the context of efforts to tackle the broader gendered impacts of crises , in order to meet the needs of women, men, girls and boys , and to find opportunities to promote women's rights and gender equality in the long term . As well as encouraging other actors to undertake these actions, Oxfam is committed to promoting gender equality and preventing GBV/VAWG, through the implementation of its Minimum Standards for G ender in Emergencies. In addition, and particularly in conflict and transition contexts , donors, governments, UN agencies, civil society, armed forces , and peacekeepers, should advance women's rights, and undertake special measures to ensure their protection from GBV/VAWG.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Government, Health, and War

136. Gender Issues in Conflict and Humanitarian Action

Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Humanitarian crises can affect women, men, girls and boys in radically different ways; changing social and cultural structures, and redefining women's and men's statuses – in both positive and negative ways. If humanitarian interventions are not planned with gender dynamics in mind, the needs of those most under threat may not be adequately met, and an opportunity to support positive change will be lost. That is why gender equality is central to humanitarian action.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Gender Issues, and Humanitarian Aid

137. Saving Lives with Common Sense: The case for continued US support for the Arms Trade Treaty

Author:: Scott Stedjan
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: By signing the Arms Trade Treaty on September 25, Secretary John Kerry took an important step toward a safer and more secure world. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is the first-ever multilateral treaty on the global trade in conventional arms. It is a common sense agreement that establishes standards for the $40 billion legal international weapons trade and seeks to reduce the illicit arms trade.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Poverty, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States

138. Peacekeeping Reimbursements-Key Topics for the Next COE Working Group

Author:: Bianca Selway
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: With UN peacekeeping operating in more complex environments and taking on new tasks, peacekeepers need appropriate equipment to carry out their mandates. A central aspect to equipping peacekeepers is ensuring that member states are appropriately reimbursed for their contributions under a equipment reimbursement system, called the Contingent-Owned Equipment System(COE). Every three years the United Nations conducts a meeting to negotiate the terms and conditions of the financial reimbursements paid to member states for the equipment they provide to UN peacekeeping operations. Preparations and briefings to member states are already underway in New York for the next COE Working Group meeting, to be held January 20-31, 2014. With 98,311 military and police deployed with their related equipment in seventeen missions around the world, the financial implications of these tri-annual discussions can be significant. In MONUSCO alone, the mission's annual budget for reimbursements to troop-contributing and police-contributing countries for major equipment and self-sustainment in the fiscal years 2008/09, 2009/10, and 2010/11 were $144million, $160million, and$180million, respectively.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: United Nations

139. NATO in Afghanistan: Turning Retreat into Victory

Author:: Henrik Larsen
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Afghanistan forced NATO to undergo a long adaptive process to be able to operate in an unprecedented and harsh strategic theater. It differed fundamentally from NATO's previous peacekeeping missions in the Balkans because the traditional division of labor between civilian and military efforts could not be maintained in practice. The UN state building agenda (Afghanistan Compact) tied NATO specifically to the security pillar throughout the country, which proved to be a gross underestimation of the actual resources required for such an effort. NATO contributors initially preferred a "light footprint" approach with a limited number of boots on the ground to avoid repeating the Soviet Union's negative experience. It proved inefficient, however, and warlords and power brokers did not demobilize and arbitrate disputes through Western-style elections and centralized institutions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, Development, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Korea

140. Disarming Syria: The Chemical Weapons Challenge

Author:: Trevor Findlay
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Disarmament during armed conflict: unprecedented Speed, efficiency and effectiveness of international institutions: breathtaking. The diplomatic choreography involved: impressive Complexity and interwoven nature of the arrangements; astounding.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

141. UN Statebuilding at a Turning Point: What's new about the intervention brigade and peacekeeping drones?

Author:: Touko Piiparinen
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Last March the UN Security Council authorised the so-called Intervention Brigade to undertake 'targeted offensive operations' against illegal armed groups operating in the Eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Brigade, which undertook its first operations in August, differs from traditional UN peacekeeping in terms of its robust mandate and mobility. The UN has simultaneously adopted a new technology, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in the DRC, which represents the first-ever use of UAVs as a part of UN peacekeeping. UAVs will be deployed in the DRC at the end of November, and start operating in early December The Intervention Brigade and UAVs have been hailed as a turning point in UN peacekeeping. However, they should not be perceived as completely new or standalone instruments of UN conflict management. They could instead be best understood as a continuum and extension of the long held state building doctrine applied by the UN. These new instruments enable the UN to perform one of its key functions of state building and protection of civilians, namely controlling and policing the whole territory of a state where an intervention has been undertaken more effectively than before. The lessons learned from the UN peace operation in the DRC indicate that the UN state building doctrine remains self-contradictory on account of the tendency of UN state building missions to spill over into wars and the mismatch between the ambitious goals set for state building and the chronic lack of resources. The Intervention Brigade and UAVs can potentially help the UN to resolve that mismatch by enhancing the UN's state building and protection capacities. However, they cannot resolve the other major disadvantage of state building, namely collateral damage inflicted in state building wars, and may even aggravate that problem.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

142. Colombia, the peace process and the political participation of the armed groups

Author:: Felipe Gómez Isa
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: One of the key indicators to determine the degree of success of any given peace process is the stable participation in national politics of former members of armed groups in rebellion against the state. In the case of Colombia, the traditionally exclusive nature of its political system explains why both the enlargement of spaces for democratic participation and the political participation itself of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army (FARC-EP) have become key issues to be discussed at the talks in Havana. It would be highly desirable for the obstacles and reticence evinced by specific political sectors to be overcome so that the current peace process can result in both the political participation of the demobilised members of the FARC-EP and greater democracy in Colombia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

143. MINUSMA: first steps, achievements and challenges

Author:: Isaline Bergamaschi
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This policy brief deals with the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). It explains its first achievements and the two main challenges it has faced so far: issues of leadership, including co-ordination between actors and capacities, on the one hand, and issues related to security conditions and the absence of peace, on the other. Finally, the policy brief proposes some recommendations to the actors involved – MINUSMA itself (i.e. its civilian and military personnel) and the UN member states supporting it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

144. Saudi Arabia's domestic sectarian politics

Author:: Madawi al-Rasheed
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Saudi regime has a vested interest in the Saudi public remaining fragmented and unable to bridge the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. Both Shia and Sunnis in Saudi Arabia have been invigorated by the ongoing Arab uprisings, and in their own regions have staged minor protests demanding similar rights. However, the regime's entrenched sectarian propaganda has succeeded in isolating the Shia and delaying a confrontation with Sunni Islamists. In the short term this may be a successful strategy, but in the long term it may fail to contain the frustration of Saudis who want serious political reform.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

145. Israel's internal frontier: the enduring power of ethno-nationalism

Author:: Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the paradox of Mizrahim (Arab Jews) supporting right-wing Israeli policies through a case study of the border town of Kiryat Shemona. Based on ethnographic research, it illuminates the enduring power of ethno-nationalism and demonstrates how it affects Mizrahi lives. Mizrahim became trapped by Israeli nation-building on the geographic and socioeconomic margins of the state positioned between the dominant Ashkenazi elite and the Palestinian population. Factors such as Mizrahim's partial inclusion in the nation; tensions between Jews and Arabs, and between the secular and the religious; the decline of the welfare state; and a shared perception of threats and dangers informed everyday nationalism in the town. Mizrahim contested Ashkenazi Israeliness through ethnic and transnational identifications and practices. Simultaneously, their support for the nation-in-arms and identification as "strong"and "civilised" reinforced the dominant logic of ethno-nationalism. Mizrahi support for right-wing militarism is likely to persist as long as national unity is used as a colonial practice by the centre. The inclusion of Mizrahim as equals together with other marginalised citizens would necessarily entail an Israeli Spring.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

146. "We are one, but we are different": Murle identity and local peacebuilding in Jonglei State, South Sudan

Author:: Diana Felix da Costa
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Despite the Murle group being politically and economically marginalised, local and national political and popular discourses portray this group as the main aggressor in South Sudan's Jonglei State. This widely asserted narrative ignores the fact that responsibility for the cycle of violence in Jonglei rests with all those perpetrating violence and certainly not solely with one group. While sharing an overarching ethnic identity, when it comes to issues of peacebuilding, the Murle can be neither seen nor treated as a consolidated group. Rather, there are cattlekeeping Murle living in the lowlands of Pibor county and agrarian Murle living in the Boma Plateau; there are also age-sets, clans and many other differentiating factors. Accusing all Murle of responsibility for violence only serves to magnify the sense of marginalisation and isolation felt by the Murle as a whole. This policy brief seeks to address some of the differences between the cattlekeeping lowlands Murle and the cultivating highlands Murle from the Boma Plateau. By doing so, it highlights the importance of understanding cultural specificities and the local political economy and, when it comes to peacebuilding, of differentiating who is responsible for a specific conflict and who has influence over those responsible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

147. Tunisia after Ben Ali: retooling the tools of oppression?

Author:: Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Tunisia under Ben Ali was a police state par excellence and reforming the country's internal security apparatus has thus been one of the major challenges since the long-standing autocrat's fall. This policy brief examines the various efforts to reform Tunisia's internal security system in the post-Ben Ali period and the challenges this process faces. It argues that reforms in this area have been limited so far, focusing mainly on purges rather than on broader structural or institutional reform of the country's police force. Moreover, not only have human rights violations committed by the police – despite important improvements – continued on a significant scale, but there are also concerns that the police will once again be instrumentalised for political purposes, this time by the Ennahda-led government. Indications to this effect have included in particular the seeming complacency of the police vis-à-vis the growth in religiously inspired violence. The recent killing of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in the first political assassination in Tunisia since Ben Ali's fall has further underscored the need to reform the country's internal security system.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Arabia and North Africa

148. Peace Operations in Africa: Lessons Learned Since 2000

Author:: Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Violent conflict and the power of armed nonstate actors remain defining priorities in 21 st century Africa. Organized violence has killed millions and displaced many more, leaving them to run the gauntlet of violence, disease, and malnutrition. Such violence has also traumatized a generation of children and young adults, broken bonds of trust and authority structures among and across local communities, shattered education and healthcare systems, disrupted transportation routes and infrastructure, and done untold damage to the continent's ecology from its land and waterways to its flora and fauna. In financial terms, the direct and indirect cost of conflicts in Africa since 2000 has been estimated to be nearly $900 billion. The twin policy challenges are to promote conflict resolution processes and to identify who can stand up to armed nonstate actors when the host government's security forces prove inadequate.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

149. Awaiting Justice: Prospects for Prosecuting War Crimes in Syria

Author:: Maria Radziejowska
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In light of the current situation in Syria, and calls to hold to account those responsible for the atrocities allegedly committed during the conflict, a group of members of the American Congress suggested that the Security Council should create an ad hoc tribunal for Syria. A Blue Ribbon Panel of international criminal law experts presented a draft Statute for a Syrian Extraordinary Tribunal to Prosecute Atrocity Crimes, while some of the Security Council members suggested referring the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. Issues pertaining to establishing justice and restoring the rule of law in Syria will certainly be on the agenda for future peace talks. The question of working out a transitional justice strategy for the country is inevitable. Whether such a strategy should include a judicial accountability mechanism will certainly be considered.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:: Syria

150. Reforming Arab security sectors

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2011, Arab security forces, long suspected to be inextricably linked to their respective regimes, once again became decisive political agents in their own right: agents of change, agents of repression and, in some cases, both. Their facilitation or suppression of democratic transitions has sparked a long-overdue debate on security sector reform in the Arab world. What are the main features of security sectors in the region? What are the main obstacles to reform? And why is this debate taking place only now?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arabia

151. Business and the Barrel of a Gun: Understanding Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries

Author:: Philip Verwimp, Wim Naudé, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Although the impacts of violent conflict on investment, production, incomes and inequality have been widely studied on an aggregate level, comparatively less is known about the more diverse impacts of such conflict at the micro (particularly firm) level. Understanding such impacts can improve policies to mitigate the human and financial costs of violent conflict in developing countries. This policy brief discusses lessons from recent studies to address this gap.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and War

152. Recent Developments at the Extraordinary Chambers of the Courts of Cambodia

Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: The death of Ieng Sary, one of the three accused in Case 002 at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia, cast into sharp relief the many delays and difficulties that threaten to deny justice to the victims of the Khmer Rouge. The court continues to struggle with Case 002, while the specter of political interference haunts Cases 003 and 004, and a funding crisis hangs over the entire institution. This report examines recent events at the court and offers recommendations for action by the UN, the Royal Government of Cambodia, and the court’s donors.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Courts, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:: Cambodia

153. Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expires in a half-year; and emboldened troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to deal the weakened (though still potent) extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab further defeats. This confluence of factors presents the best chance in years for peace and stability in the south and centre of the country. To achieve that, however, requires regional and wider international unity of purpose and an agreement on basic principles; otherwise spoilers could undermine all peacebuilding efforts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

154. Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria

Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: One year into the Syrian uprising, the level of death and destruction is reaching new heights. Yet, outside actors – whether regime allies or opponents – remain wedded to behaviour that risks making an appalling situation worse. Growing international polarisation simultaneously gives the regime political space to maintain an approach – a mix of limited reforms and escala ting repression – that in the longer run is doomed to fail; guarantees the opposition' s full militarisation, which could trigger all - out civil war; and heightens odds of a regional proxy war that might well precipitate a dangerous conflagration. Kofi Annan' s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition. It must not be squandered. For that, Russia and others must understand that, short of rapidly reviving a credible political track, only an intensifying military one will remain, with dire consequences for all.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

155. The Koran Desecration and the Role of Religion in Conflict

Author:: Qamar ul Huda
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The recent desecration of the Koran and Islamic writings caused violent unrest in Afghanistan and raises concerns about essential training in culture and religion for U.S. personnel. Basic knowledge of religious actors and their roles in peacebuilding and conflict management is still barely factored in by policymakers and advisers to U.S. government. There needs more effort by local, regional, and international religious leaders to promote nonviolent and tolerant reactions even in midst of incendiary events. An assessment is needed to evaluate whether efforts at promoting inter-cultural sensitivity are working or not, and identifying processes for mitigating tensions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

156. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran

Author:: Philip K. Verleger
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

157. Development Cooperation, Climate Change and Conflict

Author:: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Development cooperation cannot entirely eliminate the risk of climate change aggravating climate-related conflict. But it can help address some of the root causes, and support frameworks for managing and resolving them before they escalate into violence. Addressing climate-related conflict prevention and resolution in development cooperation will: reduce the impact of conflict in terms of increasing poverty and marginalisation. Conflict prevention and resolution can help minimise conflict as a risk factor for the poor, and thereby improve the options and resources for livelihood improvement. contribute to macro-economic development. Preventing and resolving conflicts can help provide more stable environments for production and investment. contribute to good governance and institutional development. Institutional frameworks can help sustain and develop spaces for risk-free expression of interests and grievances, and thereby contribute to open and democratic governance. enhance the results of development interventions. Conflict prevention and resolution can help ensure that the outcomes of interventions across the full range of sectors are more effective and sustainable. ensure that development cooperation does not in itself contribute to conflict. Conflict-sensitive programmes can ensure that development interventions do not lead to increased tensions and conflicts of interest.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation

158. Syria's Phase of Radicalisation

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As the 10 April deadline Kofi Annan (the UN and Arab League joint Special Envoy) set for implementation of his peace plan strikes , the conflict ' s dynamics have taken an ugly and worrying turn. Syrians from all walks of life appear dumbfounded by the horrific levels of violence and hatred generated by the crisis. Regime forces have subjected entire neighbourhoods to intense bombardment, purportedly to crush armed opposition groups yet with no regard for civilians. Within the largest cities, innocent lives have been lost due to massive bomb attacks in the vicinity of key security installations. Perhaps most sickening of all have been pictures displaying the massacre of whole families, including the shattered skulls of young children. The first anniversary of what began as a predominantly peaceful protest movement came and went with only scattered popular demonstrations. Instead, there was immeasurable bloodshed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

159. National R2P Focal Points Recommendations

Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: In 2005 at the United Nations World Summit, states unanimously committed to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity by adopting the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). R2P affirms an individual state's primary responsibility to protect its population from these four crimes along with the collective international responsibility to take appropriate measures to help protect populations at risk.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and War
Political Geography:: United Nations

160. Elections in Libya

Author:: George Joffé
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Arab Countries and North Africa

161. Turkey focus policy brief no:2 cyprus: is peace ever possible?

Author:: Baroness Hussein-Ece OBE
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Last week the All Party Parliamentary Group on Conflict Issues, held an event in Westminster. The meeting introduced a new concept where a network of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot civil society organisations (CSOs) were calling for a shake-up of the Cyprus peace process. They made a strong case to include a more central and active role for civil society, woman and young people to work in tandem with negotiations between the leaders of the two communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey and Greece

162. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer

Author:: Clint Watts
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Arabia

163. Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia

Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Turkey is the newest country to intervene in Somalia and its involvement has produced some positive results. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's courageous visit to Mogadishu in August 2011 at the height of the famine and his decision to open an embassy gave fresh impetus to efforts to establish lasting peace. Widespread Somali gratitude for Turkish humanitarian endeavours and the country's status as a Muslim and democratic state established Turkey as a welcome partner. Ankara has signalled it is in for the long haul. However, it must tread prudently, eschew unilateralism and learn lessons to avoid another failed international intervention. Over twenty years, many states and entities have tried to bring relief and secure peace in Somalia, often leaving behind a situation messier than that which they found. Ankara must appreciate it alone cannot solve the country's many challenges, but must secure the support and cooperation of both the Somali people and international community. Trying to go solo could backfire, hamper ongoing efforts and lose the immense good-will it has accumulated.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, and Somalia

164. Towards efficient early action: The EU needs a regional focus and proactive tools to prevent and manage conflicts

Author:: Tanja Tamminen
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Lisbon Treaty and the European External Action Service provide the EU with an excellent framework for comprehensive and effective crisis prevention and crisis management work. They just need to be utilised to the full. The security and development nexus can only be enhanced through long-term perspectives. Rather than renewing its general security strategy, the EU's focus should be on preparing tailor made and institutionally endorsed regional approaches and strategies, where the broad objectives would be operationalized into more concrete goals. In conflict-prone regions, goal-setting should be carried out through full participation with the beneficiary countries and their civil societies. Dialogue and mediation are perfect tools for achieving reconciliation and stability, and need to be utilized at every stage of comprehensive crisis management and at different levels of society. Comprehensive EU activities in the field of crisis prevention and crisis management should be duly evaluated, as only by looking at the bigger picture can lessons truly be learned and endorsed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

165. Giving the Surge Partial Credit for Iraq's 2007 Reduction in Violence

Author:: Stephen Biddle, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many credit the "surge," or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course after a wave of sectarian cleansing. Evidence drawn from recently declassified data on violence at local levels and a series of seventy structured interviews with coalition participants finds little support for the cleansing or Awakening theses. This analysis constitutes the first attempt to gather systematic evidence across space and time to help resolve this debate, and it shows that a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required for violence to drop as quickly and widely as it did.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

166. Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?

Author:: Robert Muggah and Birger Heldt
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The purpose of the second International Expert Forum, "Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?," which was held at IPI on June 6, 2012, was to take stock of the consequences of ongoing violent conflict and means to prevent and reduce them, including peacekeeping operations and special envoys. The ambition was to identify patterns and formulate lessons learned and policy implications in the short, medium, and long term. The forum was divided into three sessions: mapping the trends and causes of violence against civilians; mapping the challenges and impact of peacekeeping operations; and mapping the challenges and impact of special envoys.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Peace Studies, and United Nations

167. Georgian Dream or Nightmare? Transition of power poses great challenges for Georgia and its foreign relations

Author:: Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The victory of the Georgian Dream Coalition (GDC) over the United National Movement (UNM) has brought pluralism into Georgian policymaking. Until the power shifts from the President to the Prime Minister in 2013, the country will be led by an awkward dual power. New leadership offers great opportunities for Georgia. It can improve its democratic system and economic growth and establish a dialogue with Russia and the breakaway districts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would alleviate the frozen conflict and tense security dilemma on the boundary lines. If the transition of power does not go well, there will be prolonged power struggles that could cripple the policymaking and cast Georgia back to pre-Saakashvili times. Saakashvili's UNM is still a very significant player in Georgian politics and it is important for the GDC and the UNM to find a way to cooperate. In order to smooth the fragile transition period, Georgia needs special support and attention.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government

168. Terrorism in Perspective: An Assessment of 'Jihad Project' Trends in Indonesia

Author:: Julie Chernov Hwang
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The face of extremism in Indonesia has changed dramatically over the past decade. While the security threat from Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other Salafi-Jihadist groups remains, it has diminished significantly from its heyday in the early 2000s. With many hardline leaders now in prison or dead and current mainstream leaders reluctant to support terror attacks, violence as a means to establish an Islamic state appears to be losing favor in militant circles. New followers continue to be radicalized through a number of channels, but there are also former radicals who are disengaging as they grow disillusioned with movement tactics and leadership, as they develop new relationships, and as their priorities shift. The organized, large-scale bombings have declined, largely in response to a changing security environment. Small-scale attacks and targeted assassinations are still prevalent, but these are often the actions of small splinter groups or unaffiliated individuals. Within JI itself, support for terror attacks on Indonesian soil is increasingly a minority-held view.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Indonesia

169. EU engagement in the Sahel: lessons from Somalia and AfPak

Author:: Damien Helly
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: On 19 November, the Council of the EU welcomed the Crisis Management Concept for a possible EU training mission for Mali, paving the way for the launch of a CSDP operation replicating the work done in Uganda with Somali troops. And many in Brussels have started to speak of EUTM Mali, as if EUTM and more generally the EU approach to the crisis in Somalia was a relevant model for action in Mali.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Uganda, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, Somalia, Mali, and Mauritania

170. Renewed Violence in Iraq

Author:: Douglas A. Ollivant
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Iraq—violence has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, its economy is growing modestly, oil production recently surpassed that of Iran, and foreign investment is beginning to restore infrastructure decayed by years of war and sanctions—the risk of acute instability and renewed conflict remains. Already, in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal in December 2011, Iraq has seen a fierce political struggle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and many of his rivals in the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya parliamentary coalition, plus increasing tension with at least some segments of the Kurdish minority. For the positive trends to continue, Iraq will need to contain various threats to internal stability and weather regional turmoil that could worsen significantly in the coming months. The United States has a significant stake in helping Iraq overcome these challenges; Iraq is a critical state within a critical region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Oil, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

171. Commodities of War: Communities speak out on the true cost of conflict in eastern DRC

Author:: Steven Van Damme
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The past year has seen massive displacement, increasing volatility and widespread suffering among communities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). International attention has focused on the emergence of the M23 rebel group in April 2012, which has resulted in a disintegration of state control and violence, with severe humanitarian consequences. However, this is not so much a new crisis as a dramatic new dimension to a protracted conflict that has trapped communities in a relentless cycle of chronic abuse and constant insecurity, corroding people's ability to lift themselves out of poverty.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

172. Beyond Ceasefire: Ending the blockade of Gaza

Author:: Martin Hartberg
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The ceasefire agreed between the Government of Israel and Hamas on 21 November 2012, following the recent military escalation in Gaza and southern Israel, provides an unprecedented opportunity to end the cycle of violence that has affected too many innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians. In the ceasefire understanding, the parties agreed to negotiate 'opening the crossings' into the Gaza Strip and to put an end to 'restricting residents' free movement and targeting residents in border areas'. It is therefore also a unique chance to once and for all lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which has had a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of Gaza's civilian population and on Palestinian development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

173. No membership without stability in Northern Kosovo: Seven recommendations on how to achieve it

Author:: Imke Pente
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: With a three-month postponement, the European Council agreed to grant Candidate Status to Serbia in early March. This right and groundbreaking decision may yet not release Serbia from settling its relationship with Kosovo and from advancing in settling Kosovo's status. Serbia implemented the agreements of the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue held under the auspices of the European External Action Service only sluggishly. The dialogue has been subject to recurrent adjournments due to growing tensions between the conflicting parties. The fatal escalation of the customs conflict between Serbia and Kosovo in July 2011 illustrated the limbo in northern Kosovo threatening to overturn. The clear results of the referendum about the recognition of the government in Pristina held in Northern Kosovo in February 2012 constitute yet another indicator for the deadlock between the Albanian and Northern Serb communities. For the sake of stability, the EU member states must not be lenient with the status settlement question before allowing Serbia membership in the European Union.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

174. A wake-up call from enlargement fatigue: The cases of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia

Author:: Anne Bercio and Katrin Böttger
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:: Given the current criticism of EU foreign policy after the Lisbon Treaty, the EU urgently needs success in the Western Balkan’s approximation to the EU in order to reassert its own foreign policy standing. After the 2004 enlargement, the EU has been widely advocating its accession policy as its most successful foreign policy instrument. With the Western Balkan countries’ ambitions for and great expectations in a future EU membership, the confirmation of the “European perspective” at Thessaloniki 2003, should have put them on a stable and progressive path towards European Union membership.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Serbia

175. L'Est du Congo : la rébellion perdue des ADF-Nalu

Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Les Forces démocratiques alliées-Armée nationale de libération de l'Ouganda (ADF-N alu) sont un des groupes armés les plus anciens et les moins connus de l'Est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le seul de cette région à être considér é comme une organisation terroriste appartenant à la nébuleuse islamiste d'Afrique de l'Est. S'ils ne constituent pas une menace déstabilisatrice comme le Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), ils tiennent cependant tête à l'armée congolaise depuis 2010. Créé en RDC en 1995 et situé aux confins montagneux de la RDC et de l'Ouganda, ce groupe armé congolo-ougandais fait preuve d'une extraordinaire résilience qui tient à sa position géostratégique, son inse rtion dans l'économie transfrontalière et la corruption de s forces de sécurité. Par con- séquent, avant d'envisager toute nouvelle intervention militaire contre les ADF-Nalu, il convient de faire la part du mythe et de la réalité et de réduire sa base socioéconomique tout en proposant une offre de démobilisation et de réinsertion à ses combattants.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa

176. Threats to Security in the Sahel: The Mali Crisis

Author:: Mohamed Mahmoud Mohamed Salah
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: This issue brief provides a view from the Sahel on the current threats to peace and security in the region. As part of its project on peace and security in the Sahel- Sahara region, IPI's Africa Program has partnered with the Mauritania-based think tank, the Centre for Strategies for Security in the Sahel Sahara Region. The Centre 4S was established in June 2011 to help countries in the Sahel take the lead in transforming the region's daunting security and development challenges into opportunities. Originally written in French, this June 2012 research paper from the Centre 4S examines the principal threats to peace and security in the Sahel and their impact on development. It then offers proposals and recommendations for surmounting the current conflicts before presenting possible future scenarios for the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: North Africa

177. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:: Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

178. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration

Author:: William Byrd
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

179. A Diplomatic Milestone for Mindanao?

Author:: Jennifer M. Keister
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: A recent framework agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leaves much yet to do in building peace in Mindanao, but does offer an opportunity for careful progress. Many of the problems that have plagued previous agreements in Mindanao's 40-year conflict still exist. The international community has an opportunity to support progress and avoid a repeat of previous agreements' disappointments. Careful foreign aid policies that empower locals and do not foster competition can be critical in building peace in Mindanao.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Israel and Philippines

180. Turkey and the Iranian nuclear programme: Key to progress in regional disarmament?

Author:: Hanna Ojanen and Barbara Zanchetta
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The increasing tension around the Iranian nuclear programme and the uncompromising positions of the protagonists have made the goal of creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East seem utopic. Yet, the current strategy of maintaining a low profile in the discussions on the zone, while keeping the focus exclusively on Iran, is not likely to lead to progress. Instead, combining the Iranian question with the zone and enlarging the content and scope of the negotiations even further by including Iran's neighbours could be a better strategy. Turkey could play a key role because of its unique relations with Iran, and because of its strong quest for a more prominent international position — if it can only strike the right balance between the role of lead actor and team player. Turkish-Iranian relations could notably inspire the consideration of accompanying pragmatic agreements on regional cooperation in other fields as a way forward for the upcoming Middle East disarmament negotiations in Finland.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Finland

181. Drugs in Afghanistan—A Forgotten Issue?

Author:: William Byrd and David Mansfield
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Opium will continue to be an important part of the Afghan landscape—with political and security as well as economic ramifications. The ongoing security transition (2011-2014) will be accompanied by greater risks to Afghanistan's polity, security and economy from the illicit drug industry—including through likely further increases in opium production.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Terrorism, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

182. The Emerging Order in the Middle East

Author:: Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

183. Humanitarian Funding

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In both conflicts and disasters, people anywhere have the right to the humanitarian assistance and protection that they need. When national governments are unable to provide it, or need support, the international community has a responsibility to help, including through funding humanitarian action by disaster-affected governments, local and national NGOs, the UN and others. Despite increased funding, new donors and initiatives the level and nature of funding remains inadequate.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, War, Natural Disasters, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:: United Nations

184. Provision of Aid by Foreign Military Forces

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Foreign military forces, including UN peacekeeping operations, should not provide relief or development assistance, other than in exceptional cases. Governments should follow the accepted international standards to judge those exceptional circumstances, and determine how military forces should act. These standards are the Guidelines on the Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defence Assets in Disaster Relief [the Oslo Guidelines] for natural disasters, and separate UN guidelines for conflicts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: United Nations

185. What It Will Take to Secure Afghanistan

Author:: Max Boot
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Afghanistan is approaching a major inflection point in its long and turbulent history. In 2014 most of the foreign military forces are due to pull out. With them will go the bulk of foreign financing that has accounted for almost all of the state's budget. Twenty fourteen is also the year that Afghanistan is due to hold presidential elections. Hamid Karzai, the only president the country has known since the fall of the Taliban, has said he will not seek another term in office. Thus Afghanistan is likely to have a new president to lead it into a new era. This era will be shaped by many factors, principally decisions made by Afghans themselves, but the United States has the ability to affect the outcome if it makes a sustained commitment to maintain security, improve the political process, and reduce Pakistani interference so as to build on the tenuous gains achieved by the U.S. troop surge since 2010.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

186. Lessons for UN Electoral Certification from the 2010 Disputed Presidential Poll in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:: Lori-Anne Théroux-Bénoni
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: After the November runoff of the 2010 presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the country's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced that in the preliminary results, Alassane Ouattara, candidate of the Rassemblement des Républicains, had won. The Constitutional Council cancelled the results from several northern electoral areas favourable to Ouattara, however, and declared Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president who ran for La Majorité Présidentielle, the winner.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

187. Unfinished Business: A Framework for Peace in the Great Lakes

Author:: Rigobert Minani Bihuzo
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Landmark peace agreements signed in 2002 by 11 African governments and various nonstate armed groups were meant to end 7 years of war that had ravaged Africa's Great Lakes region. A decade later, instability, tightly intertwined with regional geopolitics, persists. Recurring conflict has killed tens of thousands, mostly civilians, and displaced millions of others. The extended instability has also led to a collapse of basic social services and economic activity in parts of the DRC, resulting in manifold more deaths due to malnutrition, lack of access to basic healthcare, and scarce livelihood opportunities.Amid this breakdown, barbaric forms of violence have emerged. During one 4-day period in the summer of 2011, nearly 400 women, men, and children were raped by militia fighters. Since 1996, there have reportedly been more than 200,000 rapes, which are mostly attributed to armed militias.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

188. Statement by Col. Joseph Felter (Ret.) before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee

Author:: Joseph Felter
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: My testimony draws on experience and perspective gained during my career as a US Army Special Forces officer with deployments to Afghanistan most recently in 2010- 2011 as commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Counterinsurgency Advisory and Assistance Team (CAAT) deploying experienced counterinsurgency advisors across all five ISAF regional commands and reporting directly to COMISAF. It is also informed by participation in efforts to build host nation security force capabilities in the Philippines and elsewhere as well as by scholarly research on the effective employment of state security forces to combat insurgency.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, War, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

189. Mutual Accountability: Lessons and Prospects for Afghanistan Post-Tokyo

Author:: William Byrd
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: At the Tokyo conference on July 8, donors committed to provide massive civilian aid to Afghanistan and improve aid effectiveness, while the Afghan government committed to a number of governance and political benchmarks. The outcome at Tokyo exceeded expectations, but a review of Afghan and international experience suggests that implementing the Tokyo mutual accountability framework will be a major challenge. The multiplicity of donors could weaken coherence around targets and enforcing benchmarks, and undermine the accountability of the international community for overall funding levels. Uncertain political and security prospects raise doubts about the government's ability to meet its commitments, and political will for needed reforms understandably may decline as security transition proceeds and the next election cycle approaches. It is doubtful whether major political issues can be handled through an articulated mutual accountability framework with benchmarks and associated financial incentives. The civilian aid figure agreed upon at Tokyo ($16 billion over four years) is ambitious and exceeded expectations; if the international community falls short, this could be used to justify the Afghan government failing to achieve its benchmarks. Finally, given past experience there are doubts about how well the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) process (mandated to oversee implementation), and the series of further high-level meetings agreed at Tokyo, will work.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Asia

190. Avoiding Meeting Fatigue: How to make the numerous international meetings on Afghanistan more effective

Author:: William Byrd
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The numerous high-profile international meetings on Afghanistan since 2001 have helped keep attention focused on Afghanistan, elicit financial support, give a “seat at the table” to all partners, generate good strategic documents, and provide a forum for the Afghan government. However, the meetings often have raised excessive expectations; lacked meaningful follow-up; undermined their own objectives; prioritized diplomacy over substance; focused more on donors' issues than Afghan problems; oriented the Afghan government toward donors; diverted resources toward meetings; resulted in meeting fatigue; and sometimes seemingly substituted for action. These meetings can be made more effective by: (1) keeping to realistic expectations; (2) not expecting meetings to substitute for difficult decisions and actions; (3) having substantive, disciplined agendas and avoiding co-optation by diplomatic priorities; (4) matching objectives with the issue(s) the meeting is supposed to address; (5) ensuring quality background work; (6) focusing follow-up on key areas and a few simple, monitorable benchmarks; and (7) keeping the number and frequency of meetings manageable.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

191. Jerusalem, Netanyahu and the two-state solution

Author:: Daniel Seidemann
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: What are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's real intentions vis-à-vis Israeli–Palestinian negotiations and the two-state solution? What does he really want? Speculation aside, a great deal can be gleaned about both Netanyahu's core beliefs and his intentions by examining his words and his actions with respect to Jerusalem. Jerusalem is universally recognised as a key permanent status issue, which, for any peace agreement, will require the reconciling of competing Israeli and Palestinian claims as well as recognition and protection of Jewish, Muslim and Christian equities. In the context of the current political stalemate, however, it has become much more than that. Today, Jerusalem is both the volcanic core of the conflict – the place where religion and nationalism meet and combine in a potentially volatile mix – and a microcosm of the conflict and the imbalance of power that characterises developments on the ground.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

192. Transitional justice in Egypt: one step forward, two steps back

Author:: Judy Barsalou
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The dominance of neo-patriarchal, semi-authoritarian regimes with little interest in justice, accountability or other values associated with democratic governance has meant that, until recently, the Arab region has had limited experience with transitional justice (TJ). Several states have started down the TJ path since the emergence of the “Arab Spring”, but their progress is uneven. In Egypt, much depends on the nature and speed of the transition, whose outcomes remain uncertain. Whether and how Arab transitional states embrace TJ – especially how they manage the fates of their deposed rulers and essential institutional reforms – will indicate whether they intend to break with the past and build public institutions that inspire civic trust.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

193. The media and freedom of expression in the Arab world

Author:: Jean-Paul Marthoz
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Online media, global TV and social networks played a significant role in the Arab Spring and will be important factors in determining the direction of these “revolutions”.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Science and Technology, Mass Media, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

194. Regional implications of the conflict in Syria: a view from Israel

Author:: Yossi Alpher
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Syria is geo-strategically, historically and politically the most central of Middle East countries, hence the over-riding importance of the conflict there. Yet any discussion of the regional implications of that conflict is necessarily highly speculative. Its points of departure are the instances of regional intervention and "overflow" from the situation already taking place. Turkey, with its open support for the armed Syrian opposition, is the leading candidate to establish "safe zones" or even "humanitarian corridors" that could conceivably lead to war. Ankara's growing rivalry with Iran is increasingly being acted out in Syria and is interacting with tensions between Sunni Muslims and Alawites/Shias not only in Syria, but in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

195. Mali : pour une action internationale résolue et concertée

Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: En l'absence de décisions rapides, fortes et cohérentes aux niveaux régional (Communauté économique des Etats d'Afrique de l'Ouest, Cedeao), continental (Union Africaine, UA) et international (Nations unies) avant la fin de ce mois de septembre, la situation politique, sécuritaire, économique et sociale au Mali se détériorera. Tous les scénarios sont encore ouverts, y compris celui d'un nouveau coup d'Etat militaire et de troubles sociaux dans la capitale, aboutissant à une remise en cause des institutions de transition et à un chaos propice à la propagation de l'extrémisme religieux et de la violence terroriste au Mali et au- delà. Aucun des trois acteurs qui se partagent le pouvoir, le président intérimaire Di oncounda Traoré, le Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra et le chef de l'exjunte, le capitaine Amadou Sanogo, ne dispose d'une légitimité populaire et d'une compétence suffisantes pour éviter une crise plus aiguë. Le pays a urgemment besoin de la mobilisation des meilleures compétences maliennes au-delà des clivages politiques et non d'une bataille de positionnement à la tête d'un Etat qui risque de s'écrouler.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Africa

196. Advancing the Rule of Law Agenda at the 67th General Assembly

Author:: Alberto Cutillo
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since 2004, the rule of law has gained solid attention in the UN community. This year, on September 24th , there is an opportunity to mark a milestone in enhancing its role in the global effort to rebuild societies after conflict, support transition sand economic growth, and strengthen state institutions. For the first time, the United Nations General Assembly will devote its opening high – level event to the topic.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:: United Nations

197. Improving the Peace Process: The Influence of Ideas in Resolving Violent Conflict

Author:: Isaac Caverhill-Godkewitsch, Vanessa Humphries, Sean Jellow, and Nyiri Karakas
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: On June 27, 2012, Queen Elizabeth II shook the hand of Martin McGuinness, a former Irish Republican Army (IRA) commander, and symbolically solidified the long peace process that had sought to resolve the Troubles of Northern Ireland (Rayner, 2012). This historic gesture illustrates that even the most ideologically heated and intractable conflicts can be resolved. In the case of Northern Ireland, resolution was not possible without first acknowledging the important roles that notions of personal and national identity, self-determination and economic fairness played as defining stakes in the conflict. In contrast, the conflict between Israel and Palestine continues to produce turmoil in addition to a stream of failed negotiations. The failure to include values and beliefs, such as equality and basic human rights, in discussions has poisoned peace efforts, with no end to the bloodshed in sight.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Ireland

198. VOICES FROM THE FIELD: Protecting Children from Conflict and Strengthening Accountability of Armed Actors

Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: On September 19ththe UN Security Council called on member states to bring perpetrators of child rights violations to justice. To do so, Resolution 2068—adopted on the occasion of the annual Open Debate on Children and Armed Conflict—emphasized the importance of national judicial systems and, where applicable, international mechanisms.This call to end impunity was one of the key conclusions of a roundtable discussion held at the International Peace Institute and co-organized with Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflicton September 17th , just two days before the adoption of Resolution 2068.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:: United Nations

199. On the Brink: Israeli settlements and their impact on Palestinians in the Jordan Valley

Author:: Lara El-Jazairi and Fionna Smyth
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Jordan Valley, located in the eastern part of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), makes up 30 per cent of the West Bank (see Map 1 on page 7). Requisitions and expropriations of Palestinian land by the Israeli authorities continue to destroy the livelihoods of Palestinians living in the area and, unless action is taken, there are strong indications that the situation will only get worse. The Israeli government recently announced proposals and policies for the expansion of settlements, which, if implemented, will further threaten the living conditions and human rights of Palestinian communities in the Jordan Valley, undermining efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the OPT and Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

200. Providing Space for Positive Youth Engagement

Author:: Tim Luccaro
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Afghanistan's youth bulge, estimated at 21 million people under 25 years old, are a potential catalyst for shifting the current political and conflict dynamics in Afghanistan. Donor governments seeking positive change in Afghanistan can approach those under the age of 30 as the most likely source of such change. International financing and political capital may be strategically focused to develop youth as a positive political, economic and social force. It is important that the international community concentrate development funding over the next 10 years on youth-oriented programming— particularly as it relates to education, enterprise and agricultural development, and civic engagement. Young Afghan advocates need support from the international community to ensure that they have the requisite space and skills to meaningfully participate in future electoral processes and in local and national peace negotiations or reintegration programs.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Demographics, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

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