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752. Between Terrorism And Truce: Developments In Middle East Violence
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today's terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due to announce the truce but instead opted to have other PA officials announce it on Palestinian television and radio. Moreover, Hamas quickly declared that it is not bound by the terms of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office nevertheless announced that the ceasefire is in effect.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Paris, Arabia, and Jerusalem
753. Special Policy Forum Report: New Paradigms In Arab Politics And The Peace Process
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Friday, October 27, 2000, Washington Institute Executive Director Dr. Robert Satloff delivered a presentation on the current Middle East situation to a Special Policy Forum luncheon briefing. Following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
754. The Draft Communique Of The Arab Summit: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Yesterday, the text of a draft communiqué for the impending Arab summit, principally drafted by host Egypt, was leaked to the Beirut press. In an interview about this document, Egyptian foreign minister Amre Moussa indicated that this draft was accurate but preliminary. If this version emerges from the summit relatively unchanged, it would represent a stunning regression in Arab-Israeli relations and a major setback for the prospects of Middle East diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
755. Special Policy Forum Report: The Escalating Crisis In The Middle East (Continued)
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 13, 2000, David Makovsky, senior fellow at The Washington Institute and former editor of the Jerusalem Post, spoke at The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The Grand Deal on peace is buried for now. Too many factors have conspired against attaining a Grand Deal in the near future, foremost of which include lack of trust, parliamentary arithmetic, and the undermining of the premises of Camp David.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
756. President Clinton's Sharm Al-Shaykh Declaration: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Clinton announced bare-bones understandings today on Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire-plus-disengagement. The test of success of this understanding will be in the swift and full implementation of its objectives on the ground, with today's shooting at a Jewish neighborhood in Jerusalem boding ill for the success of this process. Even if fully implemented, however, this understanding is unlikely to lead to a renewal of "permanent status negotiations" where the parties left off their post-Camp David diplomacy three weeks ago.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries
757. Special Policy Forum Report: The Escalating Crisis In The Middle East -- Prospects And Policy, Robert Satloff
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The last two weeks have been symptomatic of the different sort of Middle East the United States will be facing in the early years of the new decade. Whereas the dominant context of the 1990s was peacemaking punctuated by intermittent bouts of violence and conflict, the new decade will be marked by violence and conflict punctuated by intermittent bouts of diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
758. Hizballah's Kidnapping: An Opportunity To Test Bashar Al-Asad
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The capture of three IDF soldiers from the Israeli-Lebanese border last Saturday not only raises the danger of a third front for Israel—in addition to the upheaval in the Palestinian territories and the tensions with Israel Arabs inside sovereign Israel—but it offers the United States the first opportunity to test the intentions and capabilities of Syria's new yet inexperienced president, Bashar al-Asad.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
759. Inside The Fatah Tanzim: A Primer
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As violence continues to flare in parts of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, attention is increasingly focused on the Palestinian group responsible for much of the rioting and confrontation—the Fatah Tanzim. Just yesterday, the leader of the Tanzim, Marwan Barghouthi, ridiculed the ceasefire reached in Paris as useless. That the agreement was so short-lived highlights the growing importance of this quasi-civilian strike force.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries
760. From Riots To Diplomacy: Re-Thinking Principles, Assessing Options
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The fact that U.S. and Israeli officials—not Yasir Arafat—announced that the Palestinian leader had ordered a halt to violence in the West Bank and Gaza highlights the failure of the U.S.-led summit meeting in Paris. This underscores the prospect that the al-Aqsa Intifada—as Palestinians have termed the week-long spasm of violence and rioting—is a turning point, not a transitory blip, in the seven-year-old Oslo peace process. To the Clinton Administration, engrossed in the peace process since 1993, this came as a painful setback. Chances are high, however, that the President will wade into Arab-Israeli diplomacy at least once again before leaving office-either for one last push toward agreement or to ward off the accusation that he focused on peace when opportunity beckoned but left a mess to his successor. Much will depend on whether violence actually abates soon, as promised; on Arafat's success in internationalizing the conflict, as his current UN gambit for an international inquiry suggests; on the political fortunes of Israel's Ehud Barak and the potential for a national unity government; and on the outcome of the November election (i.e., will the passing of the baton next January be characterized, by and large, by continuity in policy and personnel [a Gore victory] or reassessments and staffing up lag-time [a Bush victory]?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
761. The 'Battle For Jerusalem': Assessing Strategy And Tactics
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Uneven press coverage and shocking television footage have skewed analysis of the ongoing "Battle for Jerusalem"—the week-old explosion of violence that has swept from the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, to the West Bank, Gaza and Arab population centers in Israel. Seen in political and historical context, current events actually highlight a relatively low level of casualties, a general policy of restraint by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and a confluence of interests among all elements of the Palestinian political spectrum—from the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership to the street-level Fatah tanzim to the opposition Hamas—favoring violence against Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, Gaza, and Arab Countries
762. The Israeli Arabs: Defending Al-Aqsa Or Fighting For Equality?
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The riots and violent demonstrations of Israeli Arab citizens in the last few days have been the most violent in 18 years and can be compared only to the violent protests that occurred in response to the massacres in the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatilah by Christian Phalanges in September 1982. Israeli Arabs did not give vent to such violence and rage even during the Palestinian Uprising (Intifadah) in the Territories. Although most of the Israeli Arab citizens have not taken part in the current violence, it seems from their reactions that most of them—especially the Muslim population—identify with the expressions of rage (Christian, Northern Bedouin, and Druze villages took no part in the latest incidents).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
763. The Final Months: Clinton Administration Options; On The Peace Process
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With talks completed between senior Israeli and Palestinian negotiators at a northern Virginia hotel, following Monday evening's tête-à-tête between Ehud Barak and Yasir Arafat, this week has marked the beginning of the Clinton administration's last big push to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace. As the countdown to January 20, 2001 proceeds, the administration faces a difficult set of options to achieve its long-sought breakthrough on the peace process.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
764. Special Policy Forum Report: Peace On Three Fronts -- Shimon Peres
- Author:
- Shimon Peres
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jews are not only the Chosen People but also a people with a choice. The Israeli choices in this peace process have not always been pleasant, but the choice, particularly that to begin negotiating with the Palestinians, was basically a moral one. Israelis felt deep in their hearts that it was wrong for the Jewish people to remain dominators of another people. Although there are some advantages gained by holding the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel could not remain a Jewish state and be a dominating country at the same time.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
765. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects For Ending The Conflict -- A Palestinian View; Nabil Sha'ath
- Author:
- Shimon Peres
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The wishes of the Palestinian and Israeli peoples and the situation in which they find themselves mandate a resolution to the conflict. The fact that all three parties—Americans, Palestinians and Israelis—are motivated to reach a deal quickly makes this goal more readily attainable. However, in spite of the wish to reach an agreement before the American elections, this need is not absolute, for two reasons. Firstly, the peace process is not a partisan issue in the U.S. It is not a real catastrophe if an agreement doesn't take place in the next six weeks because negotiations are going to continue with whoever is elected, Gore or Bush. Secondly, "lame duck" presidents have managed in the past to accomplish great things in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
766. The Temples Of Jerusalem In Islam
- Author:
- Martin Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The political status of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem is the subject of final status negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. According to press reports, at one moment in the Camp David negotiations last July, senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat asked his Israeli counterpart: "How do you know that your Holy Temple was located there?" A Jerusalem Report cover story (September 11) placed this in the context of a growing Palestinian denial of the existence of the First and Second Temples. "It's self-evident that the First Temple is a fiction," one Palestinian archaeologist at Bir Zeit University is quoted as saying. "The Second also remains in the realm of fantasy."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
767. Statehood, Final Status, And The Future Role Of The Plo: Will The Conflict End With Independence?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last Sunday, the world breathed a sigh of relief as the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Central Council voted to postpone a declaration of statehood until at least November 15, 2000. Less noticed, however, has been the internal battle over what is perhaps the second most important political issue on the Palestinian political agenda—the drafting of the Palestinian Constitution. Within the Palestinian Authority (PA) today, the constitution is the focus of an increasingly bitter debate pitting PLO "outsiders" against West Bank/Gaza "insiders." The outcome of this contest will determine not only the future of the PLO as a revolutionary movement and political institution but it may also have far-reaching implications for any future Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
768. Assessing The Arab 'Yellow Light' On A Palestinian; Unilateral Declaration Of Independence
- Author:
- Kenneth W. Stein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Clinton will again meet his two Camp David partners—though not yet in scheduled three-way talks during this week's Millennium Summit, six weeks after the conclusion of their inconclusive Camp David negotiations. In the August interval, each side sent leaders and diplomats jetting about Europe, Asia, and the Middle East offering their spin on what was offered at the summit, what went wrong, and what needed to be done next. In stark contrast to the effective news black-out that governed Camp David, world leaders have, over the past month, been pitched one, two, or even three sets of briefings about each side's views and where the negotiations should go from here.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arab Countries
769. Israeli Politics And Camp David
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Domestic political considerations will be an important factor in Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's moves at Camp David. Although he would like to have one for a myriad of reasons, politically Barak does not need a deal. To the contrary, failure to reach an agreement could even bring his "big tent" coalition back from dead. Barak had hoped to have a broad government that included the religious parties behind him, having learned from the Yitzhak Rabin era that it was a mistake to have a narrow government relying on its Arab members to squeeze through Knesset confidence votes. But having lost the Jewish majority before his departure, the prime minister's critics will insist that the results of the Camp David summit are illegitimate. Undoubtedly, Barak will reject such assertions, pointing to his promise to hold a national referendum.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
770. A Second Camp David Summit? Assessment And Prospects
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A decision whether to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks at a reconvened Camp David Summit may be made next Wednesday, but as it stands now, the prospects seem very uncertain. President Bill Clinton is scheduled to hold separate meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat during the United Nations special Millennium Summit. Mindful of an array of ticking clocks, Washington would like to reconvene Camp David for a short and final session sometime during the second half of September. Yet, given the failure of the last summit in July, a generally recognized precondition for a revival of summitry is the prior resolution of almost all outstanding issues between the parties, in order to virtually guarantee the success of renewed negotiations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
771. Camp David II Aftermath: Options For The Next Ninety Days
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of Camp David II and with the start of the Knesset summer recess yesterday, there appears to be a 40-90 day "window" for Israelis and the Palestinians to determine whether a diplomatic breakthrough is still possible or whether the parties will move in alternative directions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
772. Special Policy Forum Report: Camp David Collapse — A Behind The Scenes Assessment By A Participant
- Author:
- Elyakim Rubinstein
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although the failure of the Camp David II summit to reach a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is certainly sad, it is important to emphasize that this two-week meeting was not a waste of time. For the first time, Israelis and Palestinians sat together in an official setting and thoroughly discussed previously deferred matters like Jerusalem and the refugees. Although unsuccessful in reaching a full resolution, a "basic and very deep clarification of the positions" was achieved at Camp David. A partial agreement was not the preferred alternative of either the Israelis or the Palestinians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
773. Special Policy Forum Report; Jerusalem's Status And The Evolution Of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Shlomo Slonim and Geoffrey Watson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since 1967, U.S. administrations have varied their policy regarding the status of East Jerusalem. Under the Johnson and Reagan administrations, East Jerusalem was not considered occupied territory, and, consequently, Israeli control of the city in its entirety was implicitly accepted. Johnson emphasized that the international interest lay only with the holy sites of Jerusalem, and Reagan indicated that Jerusalem as a whole should remain under exclusive Israeli administration. In contrast, the Nixon and Bush administrations viewed East Jerusalem as occupied territory, therefore implicitly calling for a reorganization, if not redivision, of the city. The Nixon administration was the first to declare East Jerusalem "occupied" under the provisions of the 1949 Geneva Convention, and Bush went so far as to declare Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem as contrary to international law. The Carter and Clinton administrations were both ambiguous about the status of East Jerusalem.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
774. The Status Of The Palestinian Refugees
- Author:
- Nicole Brackman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Among the issues being discussed at Camp David between Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat, and President Clinton is one matter that directly affects several other states in the region not represented at the talks, namely, the situation of the Palestinian refugees, especially those in Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Jordan
775. Camp David II: The End Of The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict?
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- There have been at least seven agreements between Israel and the Palestinians in the past seven years. Negotiations with intermittent spurts of violence have been a way of life. Any new agreement will not be about an end to the conflict: The original 1993 agreement specified such an end, with all further disputes to be settled by negotiations alone. What Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak is looking for is an agreement that will put an end to all further claims.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
776. Arafat's Resistance To A Summit
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright completed her round of talks with both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) today, failing to announce the immediate convening of a U.S. summit. At the end of her discussions, she said she would report to U.S. president Bill Clinton on Thursday, and that he would only then determine whether and when such a summit will take place. But Palestinian officials say the likely format will be further Israeli-Palestinian talks with an aim toward convening a summit at a later date.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
777. Special Policy Forum Report: An Islamist Internationale?, Transnational Links Among Islamist Radical Groups
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian dispute is no longer the main issue on the Islamist agenda. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the development of national and Muslim-Christian disputes in various parts of Europe and central Asia assisted in the globalization of the Islamist struggle. In addition to the continuing troubles in Afghanistan and Kashmir, the 1990s have seen warfare in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, and parts of Indonesia (most prominently East Timor). All this brought about a transfer of the main Islamist struggle from the Arab world to the margins of the Middle East. Afghanistan has become the meeting point between the Arab Islamists and their Asian colleagues in the developing globalization of the Islamic radical struggle.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Indonesia, Middle East, Arabia, and Kosovo
778. The Israeli Arabs And Lebanon: A New Phase?
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The sudden death of Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad on June 10 added confusion and uncertainty to the relations among Syria, Israel, and Lebanon—relations that were already in flux after Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. One unexpected result may be increased politicization of the Israeli Arabs in northern Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
779. Back To The Palestinian Track: Prospects For The Clinton-Arafat Meeting
- Author:
- David Schenker and Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Palestinian Authority (PA) president Yasir Arafat meets President Bill Clinton today strengthened by the death of Syria's Hafiz al-Asad, whose funeral Arafat attended Tuesday. An Arafat buoyed and more confident by the death of his longtime nemesis adds a new wrinkle to an already complex game of brinkmanship that constitutes the Israeli-Palestinian dual-track negotiations on interim issues and permanent status.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
780. Hamas's Lessons From Lebanon
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israel's quick withdrawal from Lebanon and the collapse of the South Lebanon Army (SLA) is certain to be studied by Hamas, the main Palestinian Islamist organization. To understand what lessons Hamas may draw, it is useful to look at two recent developments: discussion inside Hamas about "Lebanonizing" the Palestinian territories and the early May arrest of Hamas military commander Muhammad Deif by the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries
781. Palestinian Refugees In Lebanon: New Source Of Cross-Border Tension?
- Author:
- Nicole Brackman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While Hizballah still mulls over its options in the wake of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon–terrorism, political activism, or both–there remains in Lebanon one other sizable community that could be the source of renewed tension and violence: the 350,000 Palestinian refugees. This group has a long and tortured history in Lebanon, but the development of the Oslo process (which most refugees in Lebanon perceive as an illegitimate betrayal of their cause), along with both the loss of Syrian-Lebanese leverage over Israel following unilateral withdrawal and the increasing desperation of the refugees, has fostered those ideological movements inside the refugee camps that may turn violent in order to bring attention to the refugees' humanitarian plight.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
782. Barak's Kaleidescope Coalition And The Knesset Challenge
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As violence rocked the West Bank and Gaza, Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak was scoring a significant parliamentary victory Monday. By a 56-48 margin, the Knesset approved transfer of three Palestinian villages on the outskirts of Jerusalem, including Abu Dis, from partial to full control by the Palestinian Authority (PA). An endorsement of Barak's peace process approach, the vote also stemmed a growing perception that the prime minister is hopelessly captive to the escalating, conflicting demands of recalcitrant coalition partners.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, and Arab Countries
783. The Ritual Of Violence: Israeli-Palestinian Clashes
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The May 15 clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian civilians and policemen on the occasion of the Nakbah ("catastrophe"), a Palestinian memorial day protesting the establishment of Israel, were the most violent since the September 1996 opening of the tunnel entrance in Jerusalem's Old City. Five Palestinians were killed and over 300 were wounded in. this week's clashes, along with over ten Israeli soldiers wounded in the fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
784. Special Policy Forum Report: The Future Of Israel As A Zionist State — A Debate
- Author:
- Yoram Hazony and Israel Bartal
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Abandonment of the Zionism of Ben Gurion and Herzl by Mainstream Zionist Intellectuals. The movement away from the concept of Israel as a Jewish state is spreading across the ideological spectrum and at times has had an effect on Israeli policy. Examples include: In 1994 a new code of ethics was adopted for the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) which in its explanation of the purposes for which the IDF fights excluded all references to the Jewish state, the Jewish people, and the land of Israel. The Law of Return, the law that Ben Gurion said gives a "bill of rights" to all Jews in the world, has been recently under fire. It has been termed one of the main racialist aspects of the Jewish state that must be repealed if Israel is to ever have peace with its Arab citizens. Preeminent Zionist thinker and Hebrew University professor Eliezer Schweid is promoting the adoption of a universalistic Zionism applicable to Jews and non-Jews alike in Israel. He suggests adding a symbol to the Israeli flag that would represent the participation of the Arab minority (it is difficult to imagine a symbol other than the half-crescent moon that would serve this purpose) and changing the national anthem to reflect a more universalist interpretation of Zionism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Arab Countries
785. Palestinian Democracy And The Peace Process: One Year After May 4, 1999
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Palestinian and Israeli negotiators settle into a negotiating routine in Eilat this week, the peace process quietly marks an anniversary of sorts—one year ago the Oslo-Wye diplomacy faced the threat of a unilateral Palestinian declaration of independence. That step was temporarily averted when Palestinian Authority (PA) ra'is Arafat postponed his May 4 declaration until after the Israeli election that month and then, following the signing of the Sharm el-Sheikh accord with the new government of Ehud Barak, until September 13, 2000. Today, May 4 is no longer a critical date on the calendar of Palestinian national aspirations. Yet, it does remain an important milestone for those committed to developing a more representative, democratic, and accountable PA. And more so than is commonly recognized, that process in turn is likely to have a significant impact on the prospects for an eventual Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries
786. Palestinian Track: Getting Down To Business
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "In our judgment, the next six to eight weeks could well be a decisive phase in the pursuit of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. . . . That phase obviously is now including a more intensive American involvement." This shift—after several months of focusing on Syria talks—does not necessarily mean that the Syrian track can be considered dead and buried (and indeed Arab leaders such as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah are said to be quietly seeking to revive that track). Yet, operationally, it means that the United States and Israel will no longer wait for Syria as they revive the Palestinian track and plan for Israel's pullback from Lebanon in July.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
787. The Israel-Lebanon Border: A Primer
- Author:
- Frederic C. Hof
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 16, Israel officially notified the United Nations (UN) that southern Lebanon would be evacuated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425, adding further weight to the March 5, 2000, announcement by the Israeli cabinet that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would "redeploy on the border with Lebanon by July 2000." Twenty-two years after the passage of UNSCR 425, Israel has decided to leave Lebanon unconditionally.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
788. Palestinian Holocaust Denial
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) has recently published a denial of the Jewish Holocaust on its official website. Although Hamas often uses anti-Jewish phrases, this was the first time the organization has officially denied the Holocaust.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries
789. Who Will Control The Shore And Waters Of The Galilee?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Fredric Hof
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret and as Lake Tiberias) have come to the fore.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Middle East, Arabia, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries
790. Special Policy Forum Report: Crossing Between Two Tracks — Barak, Syria, And The Palestinians
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to defend itself from the international border with Lebanon. The target date is also a deadline for the negotiations with the Syrians, as nine years after the peace conference in Madrid we are likely to witness either a breakthrough or a breakdown.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
791. The Clinton-Asad Agenda: Make Peace...But Prevent War, Too
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President Clinton's trip to Geneva on Sunday to meet Syrian leader Hafiz al-Asad begins the last leg of the administration's eight-year marathon effort to broker an elusive Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. The stakes, however, are higher than just Clinton's peacemaking legacy. While most observers believe that Syria and Israel are just a whisker away from peace, the two countries are also not much further away from conflict and perhaps war. Within days, the countdown to one of those outcomes will be clear.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
792. Special Policy Forum Report: The Vatican And The Middle East — Pope John Paul II's Trip To The Holy Land
- Author:
- Marshall Breger and George Weigel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Historically the Vatican's view of Israel and Zionism was negative. The Vatican explicitly told Herzl that that the Jews were meant to wander, and if they set foot on Palestinian soil the Christians would be there to convert them. The main concern of the Catholic Church regarding the Holy Land has long been to maintain the status quo of the Catholic holy places. For many years, the Church supported the creation of Jerusalem as an entity independent from the surrounding states—a corpus separatum. But in the 1970s, the Vatican spoke instead of international guarantees for the holy places, an idea that remains Vatican policy today.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Arab Countries, and Vatican city
793. Special Policy Forum Report: The Turkish-Israeli-Syrian Triangle
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky, Cengiz Candar, and Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The emergence of close Israeli-Turkish relations is one of the significant strategic developments in the post-Cold War Middle East. These ties are likely to flourish as long as Israel and Turkey remain pro-Western, anti-Islamic fundamentalist, and compatible in military inventory. Turkish-Israeli ties should be described as a "strategic relationship," not as an alliance. Turkey and Israel are not obligated or likely to go to war if the other is attacked. They also have somewhat differing threat perceptions regarding Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
794. Israel's Strategy For Security And Peace
- Author:
- Ephraim Sneh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The recent delay in talks between the Israelis and Palestinians is the result of an unnecessary crisis initiated by Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat. The motivation behind this tactic is the idea that you can squeeze more out of the Israelis through crisis than you can at the negotiating table. This artificial stalemate is designed to achieve more for the Palestinians, but ultimately it will not. Such political maneuvering is a mistake. The current dispute regarding the transfer of 6 percent of West Bank territory concerns implementation of one aspect of last year's Sharm al-Sheikh agreement, and this technicality has no real meaning with regard to final status. The Israelis are willing to discuss such issues, but Palestinian eagerness to stonewall the talks pertaining to them draws both parties away from the most important concerns.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Arab Countries
795. Special Policy Forum Report: 'Red Lines' In The Israeli-Syrian And Israeli-Palestinian Tracks
- Author:
- Ze'ev Schiff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the negotiations between Israel and both Syria and the Palestinians, each side has red lines—points on which it cannot concede. No agreement will be possible that crosses the red line of either side. Not all red lines are the same. In particular, Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have to draw red lines based on how much either can concede and still obtain the support of the public for the agreement, whereas in Syria, President Hafiz al-Asad is the sole decision maker.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria
796. Special Policy Forum Report: Democracy And The Palestinian Authority — Is Good Governance Essential For Peace?
- Author:
- David Schenker and Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In 1996, Assistant Secretary of State for Near East and South Asian Affairs Robert Pelletreau described democracies as "the best partners for making peace and building prosperity." Nevertheless, democracy is a term seldom mentioned with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. U.S. policy toward the Palestinians and the peace process has been focused on security, but that does not necessarily have to come at the expense of democracy. In fact, a more democratic Palestinian Authority (PA) would enhance security. En route to a peace agreement with Israel, Palestinians will be required to make concessions that will be easier to achieve if a popular consensus for those concessions is built through a democratic process. Democracy will promote better governance, resulting in an improved economy and therefore a better Palestinian neighbor for Israel. Furthermore, Palestinians will be discontented without democracy, for they have a long history of democratic civil institutions, including student councils and municipal elections, as well as an extensive knowledge of and appreciation for Israeli democracy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
797. Special Policy Forum Report: Syria's Economy — Prospects For Peace, Aid, And Market Reform
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, Daniela Gressani, and Eliyahu Kanovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) and about 30 percent of employment. Industry remains very much state led, even when not state owned. The private sector is subject to comprehensive regulations, and foreign trade is less than might be expected for an economy Syria's size. On the other hand, there is a fair amount of labor moving from Syria to neighboring countries. Syria has a young population, so the labor force is growing; young people entering the labor force have a much better education than did the previous generation and therefore seek better jobs and better opportunities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
798. The Multilaterals: Status And Prospects
- Author:
- Nicole Brackman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 1, the multilateral track of the Middle East peace process is scheduled to resume in Moscow with the first meeting of the Steering Committee since May 1995. In the wake of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's election last summer, there was widespread expectation that the multilateral talks would restart, but Egypt insisted no meeting be held until negotiations reopened between Damascus and Jerusalem. The restart of those talks last month paved the way for a revival of the multilateral talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Jerusalem, Moscow, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Damascus
799. Syria's Critique Of The U.S. Draft Treaty: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Syria-Israel negotiations are on hold, but Israelis and Syrians have found a way to negotiate through third parties—the media. Two weeks ago, Israel leaked the U.S. draft text of a proposed peace treaty, complete with a timeline for implementation, in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. Over the last ten days, a surprised and embarrassed Syria has responded with its own leaks through the Lebanese media. Beirut's al-Safir newspaper is the favored recipient of these leaks, the most authoritative of which were a set of interviews by Syrian foreign minister Faruq al-Shara and a document detailing article-by-article amendments to the proposed U.S. text. The Shara interviews highlight Syria's (professed) obsession with dignity as an essential ingredient in negotiations as well as Damascus's demand that the United States procure a clear Israeli commitment to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 borders prior to the renewal of talks. More important, though, is the al-Safir critique of the original U.S. draft treaty. A close reading of that chilly document suggests that Syria is keen to project the image of offering Israel only an arctic-cold peace, correcting the impression advanced by some press reports that al-Shara had offered numerous concessions to Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak during the Shepherdstown talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
800. The U.S. Draft Treaty For Syria-Israel Peace: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties—over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither rules in nor rules out an Israeli withdrawal to the "June 4, 1967, lines." The draft reflects a document much more detailed than a Camp David-style framework accord or an Oslo-type Declaration of Principles but still far short of a full-blown peace treaty. In tone and wording, it is a throwback to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, with few improvements and even several drawbacks from that two-decade-old document.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Egypt