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6501. Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh against Iran

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $60 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional allies in the face of a growing threat from Iran. For the Saudis, the transaction represents a clear return to considering the United States as its principal arms supplier, a position the Americans risked losing to France as recently as 2006.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

6502. Reassessing U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since 2005, Washington has obligated more than $700 million in military assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the aftermath of the LAF's August 3 cross-border shooting of two Israeli officers, one fatal, this funding has come under increasing scrutiny. Not coincidentally, the shooting followed a series of setbacks for Washington's allies in Beirut, which in turn fundamentally altered the conditions that had spurred the 2005 spike in U.S. funding. It is unclear how this new dynamic is affecting the military, but many infer from the shooting that the LAF is shifting away from neutrality and toward Hizballah. More broadly, the incident has resurrected questions as to whether Washington's main policy objective for the LAF --establishing state sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory -- is ultimately achievable.
Political Geography:
United States and Lebanon

6503. U.S. Policy on Hizballah: The Question of Engagement

Author:
Ash Jain
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Four years ago this week, Israel launched a military campaign in Lebanon in retaliation for a brazen Hizballah attack on its soldiers. The goal, according to an Israeli official, was "to put Hizballah out of business." But neither war nor subsequent U.S. diplomatic efforts aimed at weakening the group have succeeded, and some in the Obama administration now appear to view direct engagement as an option worth exploring. Reaching out to Hizballah, however, at a time when it is politically and military emboldened, would be an exercise in futility that could prove counterproductive.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Lebanon

6504. Three Critical Weeks in the Middle East: Insights into U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
It is important to recall that the Gaza incident had the unintended consequence of wiping from the headlines much discussion about the U.S. decision to accede to the final resolution of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference. Indeed, if Gaza had not occurred, there would be much more intense focus on how the decision to acquiesce in a deeply flawed NPT document gave clarity to the administration's priorities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

6505. Yemen's Forever War: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

Author:
Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is not the biggest problem -- or even the biggest security challenge -- facing the Yemeni government, the United States and much of the international community still place it above other issues. Successful counterterrorism is directly linked to state stability. If Yemen becomes a failed state within the next few decades, U.S. counterterrorism objectives would be decisively undermined. The challenge for U.S. policy is finding a way to bolster the struggle against AQAP without exacerbating other aspects of Yemen's overlapping security, economic, and political crises.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries

6506. Pakistan: The Worsening IDP Crisis

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The monsoon floods in Pakistan have caused massive de- struction and turned a displacement crisis in the insecure western borderlands into a national disaster of mammoth proportions. When the floods hit, almost all those displaced from Malakand had returned hom e and were struggling to rebuild lives in a region where much of the infrastructure had been destroyed in fighting; 1.4 million more displaced from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The disaster would have proved challenging under any circum- stance. The fragile civilian government, already tackling an insurgency, and its institutions, neglected during nine years of military rule, lack the capacity and the means to provide sufficient food, shelter, health and sanitation without international assistance. The Pakistan govern- ment and international actors should ensure those in the flood-devastated conflict zones are urgently granted the assistance they need to surv ive and to rebuild lives and livelihoods. If military objectives dictate rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, a population exhausted by con- flict could become a soft target for militants, making sta- bility in the northwest even more elusive.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

6507. Mining for facts: PacRim Cayman LLC v. El Salvador

Author:
Alexandre de Gramont
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In his recent article, “Thinking twice about a gold rush: Pacific Rim v. El Salvador” (Columbia FDI Perspectives, No. 23, May 24, 2010), Professor Gus Van Harten uses the PacRim v. El Salvador arbitration, pending at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), as the basis for asserting a number of criticisms against the overall system of arbitration under investment treaties.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Latin America

6508. Will China relocate its labor-intensive factories to Africa, flying-geese style?

Author:
Terutomo Ozawa and Christian Bellak
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
China has developed increasingly close economic relations with Africa in its quest for oil and minerals through investment and aid. The World Ban k recently called upon China to transplant labor-intensive factories onto the continent. A question arises as to whether such an industrial relocation will be done in such a fashion to jump-start local economic development—as previously seen across East Asia and as described in the flying-geese (FG) paradigm of FD.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and China

6509. Political risk insurance and bilateral investment treaties: a view from below

Author:
Lauge Skovgaard Poulsen
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Many of the risks covered by bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are also covered by political risk insurance (PRI). Although there are important differences between PRI and BITs, both in terms of coverage and underlying purpose, the considerable overlap between the two instruments suggest that PRI providers should take BITs into account when assessing the risk of investment projects. But while the relationship between BITs and PRI has often been alleged to be considerable, in practice there is practically no publicly available evidence to sustain this assumption. This Perspective reviews evidence from a recent survey of officials in private and public (or mixed private/public) PRI providers.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations

6510. FDI incentives pay — politically

Author:
Nathan M. Jensen and Edmund J. Malesky
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite broad skepticism about the benefits of globalization, the majority of U.S. states have offered lucrative tax incentives to attract investment. The size of these incentives is generally considered too large to be welfare enhancing, and many economists are skeptical of the effectiveness of these policies. Yet despite the mounting evidence to the contrary, the incentives offered by U.S. states (and foreign countries) continue and have actually increased in their generosity over time.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

6511. The response to the global crisis and investment protection: evidence

Author:
Kathryn Gordon and Joachim Pohl
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In March 2009, Columbia FDI Perspectives carried an early analysis of investment policies in response to the financial crisis that began in early 2008. At that time, the authors, Anne van Aaken and Jürgen Kuntz, found “clear evidence of widespread discrimination directed at foreign actors” in the emergency response to the crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Colombia

6512. Foreign direct investment and U.S. national security: CFIUS under the Obama Administration

Author:
Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
There was considerable public scrutiny of the Obama Administration's performance in its inaugural year, but comparatively little focus on one of the Administration's key processes governing the flow of investment into the United States — namely, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Yet, this is a frequent question we receive from foreign investors -- has the change in the administration affected CFIUS?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

6513. Thinking twice about a gold rush: Pacific Rim v El Salvador

Author:
Gus Van Harten
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Whether it concerns oil drilling or gold mining, sometimes a government, facing new circumstances, must change its mind.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Latin America

6514. How BRIC MNEs deal with international political risk

Author:
Premila Nazareth Satyanand
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Hitherto, political risk has worried developed country multinational enterprises (MNEs) investing in developing country markets. But as more emerging market firms invest overseas, they too must grapple with this subject. World Investment and Political Risk 2009 looks at this issue for the first time and finds that Brazilian, Russian, Indian, and Chinese (BRIC) firms appear to worry more about political risk than global counterparts. Though these results are based on as mall sample of 90 of the largest BRIC investors, they are thought-provoking nonetheless.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Latin America

6515. Managing Land Conflict in Timor-Leste

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight years after independence, Timor-Leste is still with- out a legal basis for determining ownership of land. In its absence, the challenges of enforcing property rights have grown more complex and increased the potential for conflict. The politically charged task of sifting through over- lapping claims inherited from the country's two colonial administrations has been complicated by widespread illegal occupation of property after the displacement of over half the population that followed the 1999 referendum. The legal and social uncertainties this created magnified the effects of the country's 2006 crisis, causing further mass displacement in the capital and beyond. Resolution of these uncertainties through new laws, regulations and policies is necessary to reduce conflict, diminish the risk of further instability and to provide a clear way to resolve past and future disputes.
Topic:
Environment and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Asia

6516. China's Myanmar Strategy: Elections, Ethnic Politics and Economics

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's 2010 elections present challenges and opportunities for China's relationship with its south-western neighbour. Despite widespread international opinion that elections will be neither free nor fair, China is likely to accept any poll result that does not involve major instability. Beijing was caught off-guard by the Myanmar military's offensive into Kokang in August 2009 that sent more than 30,000 refugees into Yunnan province. Since then it has used pressure and mediation to push Naypyidaw and the ethnic groups that live close to China's border to the negotiating table. Beyond border stability, Beijing feels its interests in Myanmar are being challenged by a changing bilateral balance of power due to the Obama administration's engagement policy and China's increasing energy stakes in the country. Beijing is seeking to consolidate political and economic ties by stepping up visits from top leaders, investment, loans and trade. But China faces limits to its influence, including growing popular opposition to the exploitation of Myanmar's natural resources by Chinese firms, and divergent interests and policy implementation between Beijing and local governments in Yunnan.
Topic:
Democratization and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China

6517. Central Asia: Chased by Chaos

Author:
Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Aside from the threat of political violence, most Central Asian states are faced with internal, as well as external threats from terrorism and organized crime. All states must work and cooperate amongst themselves and with their neighbors to come up with a sustainable response to these threats and ensure the stability of the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Central Asia

6518. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): Reducing Human Vulnerabilities To Natural Disasters

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the world has witnessed several major natural disasters, from the boxing day tsunami in 2004, to the Haiti earthquake in January 2010 and the recent floods in Pakistan in August 2010. The 'World Disasters Report 2009' states that 3,605 natural disaster occurrences were recorded from 2000 to 2008. In many of these disasters, critics have repeatedly brought up the issue of the failure to provide adequate response, calling on states and international communities to shift from reactive to proactive approaches to disaster management. In fact, as the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) acknowledges, policymakers have come to better understand how natural disasters exacerbate vulnerabilities of states and communities (UN, 2005). It should be noted that natural disasters have greater impact on poor countries and communities in particular as they tend to be more exposed to hazards and have less capacity and awareness to manage disaster risks (Concern Emergency Unit, 2005:2). This places greater importance on disaster risk reduction (DRR) as a means of reducing vulnerabilities of such states and communities and building their resilience to natural hazards.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan

6519. Nonstate Policing: Expanding the Scope for Tackling Africa's Urban Violence

Author:
Bruce Baker
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Violent crime in Africa's cities is endemic and in many places worsening. Africa as a whole has a homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 (in Europe it is 5.4, in North America 6.5, and in South America 25.9). The problem is particularly severe in some urban areas. Kinshasa's homicide rate is estimated to be as high as 112 homicides per 100,000. The Nigerian police have recorded consistently rising rates of murder and at - tempted murder over the last 20 years. Rates of armed robbery in Africa are also very high. In Nairobi, 37 percent of residents reported being victims. The rate is 27 percent in some Mozambican cities and 21 percent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nairobi

6520. Illicit Arms in Indonesia

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A bloody bank robbery in Medan in August 2010 and the discovery in Aceh in February 2010 of a terrorist training camp using old police weapons have focused public attention on the circulation of illegal arms in Indonesia. These incidents raise questions about how firearms fall into criminal hands and what measures are in place to stop them. The issue has become more urgent as the small groups of Indonesian jihadis, concerned about Muslim casualties in bomb attacks, are starting to discuss targeted killings as a preferred method of operation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia

6521. Halving Hunger: Still Possible? Building a rescue package to set the MDGs back on track

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Ten years after the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) agreed by world leaders became the greatest-ever commitment for a 'more peaceful, prosperous and just future', progress is slow and many hard-won achievements have been undone after the global food, fuel and economic crises. Unless an urgent rescue package is developed to accelerate fulfillment of all the MDGs, we are likely to witness the greatest collective failure in history.
Topic:
Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Nations

6522. Short Sales Bans: Shooting the Messenger?

Author:
Laurence Copeland
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In response to the recent financial crisis, many governments chose to ban or restrict short sales, hoping to mitigate the impact of the stock market downturn. Stock markets function as a continuous election, held to determine the allocation of resources with buyers voting for and sellers voting against investment in particular stocks. Banning short selling is akin to disenfranchising the "no" voter, thereby creating a distortion in the resource allocation process. Ban-induced price distortions damage the integrity of stock prices among investors and potentially cause stocks to expand beyond what is optimal for the firms and the economy.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Washington

6523. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth

Author:
S. Akbar Zaidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

6524. Improving the Governance of the Food Aid Convention: Which Way Forward?

Author:
Jennifer Clapp and C. Stuart Clark
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Informal talks began in mid-2010 on renegotiating the FAC with a view to adopting a new agreement by June 2011. The FAC is an international agreement that sets out the rules and minimum commitments for member countries which donate international food aid to feed hungry people in developing countries. The existing Convention is dated and requires revision on a number of fronts (Clay 2010; Hoddinott, Cohen and Barrett 2008; Barrett and Maxwell 2006), particularly in the current context of high food insecurity and volatile world food markets (FAO 2009a; FAO 2010). The effectiveness of the FAC as a mechanism to provide appropriate and predictable minimum levels of food aid to those in need has been diminishing to the point of virtual invisibility in the midst of the recent food price crisis — a clear illustration of its fading legitimacy.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Food

6525. The Environment and Corporate Governance in Zimbabwe

Author:
Hany Besada and arolina Werner
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Formerly one of Africa's most promising economies, Zimbabwe has begun a process of economic reconstruction after decades of political turmoil and economic mismanagement. The advent of a national unity government in February 2009 launched a new but still tentative era of political stability. The government has a daunting political and economic agenda. Top priorities include restoring the rule of law, demonstrating fiscal responsibility, and putting in place macroeconomic and structural reforms to win the confidence of domestic and international investors.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

6526. Reaching for Justice: The participation of victims at the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia

Author:
Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
The Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) is the first international or internationalised tribunal to include the participation of victims as Civil Parties during the trial. There was a steep learning curve regarding management of victims' involvement in the first trial. There was initially insufficient funding allocated to support victims' participation, with late establishment and understaffing of victim support at the ECCC. Cambodian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have proved instrumental in ensuring the submission of Civil Party applications, legal representation and other forms of support for Civil Parties throughout the process and played a pivotal role in outreach activities. Donors should consider financing NGO and civil society activities that support victim participation, in order to maximise the impact of the significant expenditures they are often allocating to the ECCC. The challenges and successes of the first trial provide lessons not only for future ECCC cases but also for other courts concerning the participation of victims such as the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and International Law
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Southeast Asia

6527. The Civil Society-Military Relationship in Afghanistan

Author:
Lisa Schirch
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The intense challenge of coordinating government civilians with military actors in the International Security Assistance Forces' Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan has inhibited development of military relationships with civil society. The counterinsurgency strategy of “shape, clear, hold, build” invites civil society organizations (CSOs) to play key roles in the final “build” stage at the operational level. Yet many CSOs resist “coordination” in a mission and strategy different from their own. CSOs seek greater policy dialogue and “communication” with high-level ISAF decision makers, particularly during planning stages. An ongoing, high-level forum for civil society-military policy dialogue could help address tensions, provide a mechanism for CSOs to share their conflict assessments, and explore areas for possible collaboration such as in security sector reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Indonesia

6528. The ICJ's Advisory Opinion on Kosovo

Author:
Richard Caplan
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On July 22, 2010, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued its advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence of February 17, 2008, observing that the declaration was not in violation of international law. The Court's opinion may facilitate further recognitions of Kosovo but thus far there has been no significant increase in the number of countries extending recognition. Although the Court's opinion was drafted with the specific and unique circumstances of the Kosovo case in mind, it has been followed with interest by separatist parties engaged in contested territorial struggles elsewhere around the world. Separatists are likely also to be watching with interest the next steps that may be taken with regard to Kosovo in the wake of the ICJ's advisory opinion, especially any boundary adjustments that may be proposed and agreed upon between the Serbian and Kosovar governments.
Topic:
International Law and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Kosovo and Balkans

6529. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia

Author:
Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America

6530. Afghanistan: Conditions-Based Redeployment

Author:
William B. Taylor
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
President Barack Obama's policy of a conditions-based redeployment in Afghanistan starting in July 2011 leaves him a lot of flexibility. The administration will likely decide to maintain the troop numbers in Afghanistan near the surge level next year, pending another review.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

6531. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan

Author:
Matt Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

6532. Iran's Subsidies Conundrum

Author:
Semira Nikou
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has subsidized petroleum products, basic foodstuffs, medical goods and utilities since 1980, first to manage hardships during the eight-year war with Iraq, and then to prevent political and economic challenges after the war. Since the 1990s, three presidents have tried to cut back subsidies that are now estimated to cost Iran between $70 billion and $100 billion annually. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won parliamentary approval for a controversial plan to phase out subsides by 2015. Under the plan, universal price controls are to be replaced with small cash payments to families and direct support of industries. Some economists are concerned that lifting price controls will trigger dramatic rises in inflation and unemployment. The cutbacks come at a time the government already faces serious economic troubles and tougher international sanctions. For the public, the change is likely to produce the most economic disruption since the revolution. Economic reforms have triggered unrest in the past. If reform succeeds, however, the program could help reduce waste, shrink state outlays and enhance efficiency and productivity.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

6533. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6534. Many Shuras Do Not a Government Make: International Community Engagement with Local Councils in Afghanistan

Author:
Noah Coburn and Shahmahmood Miakhel
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The need to engage local Afghan leaders and support community decision making has recently been promoted as a key element of both development and counterinsurgency strategies in Afghanistan. The resulting proliferation of community councils—commonly called shuras or jirgas— sponsored by different actors within the Afghan government and international community has decreased the effectiveness of local governance and rule of law in many places. Traditional Afghan dispute resolution and governance bodies are most effective when they are formed by local residents and genuinely reflect the interests of the community. Their legitimacy decreases if international or government sponsors create shuras or jirgas to promote their own interests. This paradox creates a dilemma for programs designed to foster good governance: how to promote community self-rule that reflects traditional values and mechanisms and that develop locally, while adhering to rigid counterinsurgency and development timelines and strategies. These so-called 'traditional' political structures have an important place in local governance in Afghanistan, but the international community should not assume that such bodies fairly represent their respective communities. Rather, sound understanding of local dynamics and in-depth consultation with local government actors and community leaders are necessary to help ensure that such bodies are represented and thus, legitimate within the community. A more coherent, sustainable vision of long-term local governance and coordinated strategies between the Afghan government and international forces is necessary to bring both stability and development to Afghanistan. In particular, this Peace Brief supports the attempts to create a coherent long-term goal of local governance based on legitimate local actors, most likely selected through elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

6535. Misdirected Development a Threat to Security – Analysis of Southeast Asia

Author:
Manpavan Joth Kaur and Lina Gong
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Under-performance on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and conflicts are connected such that the former can catalyse or prolong the latter. This Insight looks at Southeast Asia, where intrastate conflicts and violence have plagued countries for years. Three socially vulnerable groups experiencing inequality in access to outcomes of projects on the MDGs are identified - women and youth in rural areas and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The propensity for such inequality to incite and prolong conflict is examined.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

6536. Dependency and Complacency in the Energy Sector: Implications for Human Security

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The need for higher levels of economic growth and development – in both developing and developed countries – has only served to increase the world's appetite for energy. The persistent dependence on traditional sources of energy in the form of fossil fuels such as oil and coal relegates the plan to develop renewable sources of energy to a long-term goal despite the desire for sustainable development and a low-carbon economy. Such dependency on these energy sources has sometimes come with a degree of complacency. Complacency sets in when profit-driven firms fail to take into account the socioeconomic and environmental implications of the development of traditional energy sources; these could indirectly affect production and operational processes as well as the firms' overall image. This complacency is reflected in ineffective management which can and has posed threats to human security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6537. New Crisis, Old Demons in Lebanon

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le Liban traverse, à nouveau, une zone de graves dangers. La crise qu'il subit depuis l'assassinat en 2005 de l'an- cien premier ministre Rafic Hariri, connaît en effet une nouvelle mutation particulièrement dangereuse, à mesure que les perspectives de mises en accusation décidées par le tribunal international chargé d'enquêter sur ce meurtre se font plus précises. L'implication attendue de membres du Hizbollah a replongé la scène politique dans une lutte féroce, où se jouent tout à la fois les relations intercommu- nautaires, la légitimité de la résistance que ce mouvement incarne, la crédibilité du tribunal, la survie de l'actuel gouvernement d'unité nationale, la solidité du récent rap- prochement syro-saoudien et, plus généralement, la stabi- lité bien fragile du pays. Le soutien international offert au tribunal, son rejet catégorique par le Hizbollah, et la diffi- culté qu'il y a pour Saad Hariri, premier ministre et fils de Rafic, à le désavouer risque de conduire rapidement à une impasse, dont les effets se re porteront rapidement au ni- veau de la rue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia

6538. The Making of a Seoul Development: Consensus The essential development agenda for the G20

Author:
Jasmine Burnley and Elizabeth Stuart
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
When the G20 meets in Seoul in November 2010, it has a big choice to make. It can either retreat into a narrow focus on its own interests, or it can prove it is capable of genuine global leadership in the face of the interlinked economic, food, and climate change crises. The G20 must adopt a Seoul 'development consensus' that confronts the challenges of the 21st century: reducing inequality and tackling global poverty through sustainable, equitable growth that gives poor women and men, and their governments, the tools they need to overcome poverty.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, and South Korea

6539. Righting Two Wrongs: Making a new Global Climate Fund work for poor people

Author:
Tracy Carty
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate-related shocks are negatively affecting the lives of millions of poor women and men with increasing frequency and severity. The non- binding pledges made in Copenhagen put the world on track for a catastrophic temperature rise of 3-4°C. If developed countries fail to set much more ambitious emissions targets, the cost of damages will increase dramatically. There is an urgent need to set up a proper system of finance for adaptation to help developing countries avoid the worst impacts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, and Development

6540. Agricultural challenges and opportunities for Haiti's reconstruction

Author:
Marc Cohen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The massive earthquake that struck Haiti on 12 January 2010 devastated rural areas as well as urban, destroying crops, farm buildings, equipment, and infrastructure. Indirect effects touched almost every corner of the nation, as 600,000 people migrated to the countryside, increasing pressure on already stretched food and fuel resources. Internal displacement worsened food insecurity, which affected six out of ten people even before the disaster.
Topic:
Development, Disaster Relief, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
Caribbean

6541. How to Change the EU Treaties: An Overview of Revision Procedures under the Treaty of Lisbon

Author:
Peadar ó Broin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Less than a year has passed since the Lisbon Treaty became part of EU law, thereby bringing to an end almost a decade of intergovernmental wrangling over EU institutional reform. Yet despite its protracted ratification process and pledges from national administrations and EU authorities that the Lisbon Treaty had closed the issue of treaty reform for the foreseeable future, a number of modifications to the EU treaties are currently in the pipeline. One such proposal, relating to the number of seats in the European Parliament, has already left the drawing board and is presently pending national ratification. But perhaps most significant are those proposals that could amount to major treaty reform in areas such as the Franco-German Declaration of Deauville, which proposes significant changes in the area of economic and monetary union and, possibly also institutional reform.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

6542. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon Treaty Revision(s)

Author:
Piotr Maciej Kaczyński and Peadar ó Broin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Lisbon

6543. What reforms for the credit rating industry? A European perspective

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Credit rating agencies (CRAs) continue to find themselves in the eye of the storm. Despite having singled out the industry early on in the financial crisis as needing more regulation, policy-makers seem not to be reassured by the measures that have been adopted in the meantime, and want to go further. Faced with a rapid downgrading in ratings in the context of the sovereign debt crisis, European Commissioner Michel Barnier raised the possibility last May of creating a new EU-level rating agency that would specialise in sovereign debt.
Topic:
Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6544. What kind of governance for the eurozone?

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The survival of the eurozone hinges on the capacity of its leaders to improve its governance. This has become very clear since the eruption of the government debt crisis in the eurozone in 2009, which can be said to result from a failure of economic governance. In order to answer the question of how the economic governance of the eurozone should be reformed, we should first make a diagnosis of the crisis in which the eurozone has been mired since 2009.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

6545. Fiscal Policy Coordination and Competitiveness Surveillance: What solutions to what problems?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In June 2010, both the European Commission and the European Central Bank published documents containing ideas for enhancing European economic governance. Both proposals stress the need for stronger surveillance on a country-by-country basis and the effective enforcement of surveillance through incentives and a wider spectrum of sanctions.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6546. The Responsibility to Protect and Kenya: Past Successes and Current Challenges

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The passing of the 4 August constitutional referendum in Kenya is a promising sign in the broader context of efforts to prevent atrocities and uphold the responsibility to protect (R2P). The peaceful referendum sharply contrasts with the wave of violence that erupted in the wake of the disputed December 2007 presidential election, when within hours of the announcement of the results violence broke out. Less than two months later 1,133 Kenyans had been murdered, unknown numbers raped, and over 500,000 forcibly driven from their homes. The perpetrators included individuals, militias and the police with victims often targeted on the basis of their ethnicity and corresponding perceived support for a particular presidential candidate.
Topic:
Political Violence and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

6547. Upholding the Responsibility to Protect in Burma/Myanmar

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The situation in Burma/Myanmar remains grave. With elections scheduled for 7 November 2010 international attention on the country has increased. Such attention, and any policy action taken, must focus not only on the goal of democratic transition, and concerns about the regimes nuclear collaboration with North Korea, but also on the plight of Burma's ethnic minorities who continue to suffer atrocities at the hands of the government. These atrocities may rise to the level of crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing – crimes states committed themselves to protect populations from at the 2005 World Summit, as described in the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect policy brief dated 4 March 2010, “Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar.”
Topic:
Democratization, Genocide, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, Burma, and Myanmar

6548. Examining Pandemic Responses in Asia

Author:
Li Hongyan and Ong Suan Ee
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The recent pandemic disease outbreaks which affected many Asian countries underscore the need for appropriate pandemic responses to be developed in order to contain and mitigate the spread of pandemics that emerge in the future. Through an examination of the different responses to SARS and H1N1 in the region, and the effects of those efforts, this NTS Insight seeks to highlight issues which should be considered when developing pandemic response programmes.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Asia

6549. Atrocities in Nigeria's Plateau State and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 7 March 2010, between 1 and 3 am, groups of armed men launched simultaneous attacks on the villages of Dogo Nahauwa, Zot, and Ratsat, in Du District of Jos South Local Government Area, Plateau state, Nigeria. Driven from their homes by the sound of gunfire, villagers were maimed and killed by machete wielding men who also set homes on fire, displacing the survivors.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

6550. Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The Burmese junta, its armed forces known as the “Tatmadaw,” and other armed groups under government control are committing gross human rights violations against ethnic and religious minorities. Extrajudicial killings, torture, and forced labor are prevalent; rape and sexual abuse by the Tatmadaw are rampant; and from August 2008 through July 2009 alone, 75,000 civilians in the east, where armed conflict is ongoing, were forcibly displaced. The Tatmadaw shows a complete disregard for the principle of distinction, intentionally targeting civilians with impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

6551. The International Response to 28 September 2009 Massacre in Guinea and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 28 September 2009, government forces opened fire on opposition supporters peacefully protesting in a stadium in Conakry, Guinea. Demonstrators had gathered to contest junta leader Captain Dadis Camara's reported intention to run in the January 2010 elections, and break his promise to cede power to civilian rule. Over 150 civilians were killed in attacks that Human Rights Watch reports were premeditated and that the United Nations Commission of Inquiry concluded amounted to crimes against humanity. Over 1,200 people were injured, rape and sexual violence was widespread, and unknown numbers of protestors and political opponents were detained.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

6552. Will the EU get a real president? The EU's political system as another example of semi-presidentialism in Europe

Author:
Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At first glance the EU's political system doesn't seem to correspond to any contemporary type of regime. There is a directly elected European Parliament (EP), but the way of constructing relations of power and accountability between the parliament and the three bodies with executive powers, the Commission, the European Council or the Council, complicates the picture. The Commission's accountability to the European Parliament has been confirmed in the founding treaties ever since their conclusion. But what is the value of such a rule when there seems to be a much more powerful executive emerging beyond the reach of any EU-level accountability, namely the European Council?
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

6553. Can Asia Learn from Brazil's Agricultural Success?

Author:
Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world's major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil's success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of selfsufficiency in the region.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Food
Political Geography:
Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

6554. Stalemate in Southern Thailand

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The deadly conflict in Thailand's predominantly Malay Muslim South is at a stalemate. Although military operations might have contributed to the reduction in violence, the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made little effort to tackle the political grievances that drive the insurgency. A limited unilateral suspension of hostilities offered by rebels has met no significant response. Draconian laws that grant security forces sweeping powers remain imposed while justice for serious cases of past abuse remains unaddressed and torture of suspects continues. As bloody anti-government protests in Bangkok distracted the nation in early 2010, the death toll in the six-year-long insurgency steadily climbed. The conflict in the Deep South remains on the margins of Thai politics and unresolved. A paradigm shift is needed to acknowledge that assimilation of Malay Muslims has failed and that recognition of their distinct ethno-religious identity is essential. Dialogue with insurgents and reform of governance structures remain two missing components of a comprehensive political solution.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

6555. China-Japan Security Relations

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The recent clash between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard in the East China Sea demonstrates continuing potential for conflict between China and Japan over territory and maritime resources, one that could affect the United States. China's stronger navy and air force in and over the waters east and south of the country's coast is one dimension of that country's growing power. But the deployment of these assets encroaches on the traditional area of operations of Japan's navy and air force - and a clash between Chinese and Japanese ships and planes cannot be ruled out.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Asia

6556. The Drag on India's Military Growth

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
India's remarkable economic growth and newfound access to arms from abroad have raised the prospect of a major rearmament of the country. But without several policy and organizational changes, India's efforts to modernize its armed forces will not alter the country's ability to deal with critical security threats. Our research suggests that India's military modernization needs a transparent, legitimate and efficient procurement process. Further, a chief of defense staff could reconcile the competing priorities across the three military services. Finally, India's defense research agencies need to be subjected to greater oversight.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Development
Political Geography:
India

6557. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

6558. South-east European Surplus Arms: State Policies and Practices,

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Ensuring the physical security and proper management of national inventories and surplus stocks is key to minimizing potential hazardous effects on populations and environments surrounding depots.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Environment, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe

6559. Under Pressure: Social violence over land and water in Yemen

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In February 2007 at least a dozen people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed during a land dispute between tribesmen from al-Baydha and Sanhan that erupted in a southern suburb of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a. A sheikh from Sanhan kidnapped the son of a sheikh from al-Baydha to pressure him into renouncing ownership of a large plot of land. The youth reportedly fought back, injuring his kidnapper, and was then killed. The boy's family rejected mediation and a gun battle erupted, with further killings apparently occurring when injured fighters were taken to hospital. Fighting was only quelled when the government sent tanks to separate the parties.
Topic:
Political Violence, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries

6560. Hello Missile Defence–Goodbye Nuclear Sharing?

Author:
Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
It appears likely that NATO's new strategic concept, although largely only confirming the status quo on nuclear policy, will also set out the bold decision to adopt a Ballistic Missile Defence System.Through this combination the new strategic concept looks set to herald radical change in long cherished principles about nuclear sharing and to directly address sensitive issues of Alliance cohesion and deterrence posture.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

6561. Democracy and the Chain of Command: A New Governance of Africa's Security Sector

Author:
Dominique Djindjéré
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Africa's senior defense and security officials must adopt higher standards of leadership to reshape Africa's security forces into professional bodies capable of handling contemporary security threats and earning the respect of civilian populations. Politicians' adherence to constitutional limits on power will avoid placing military officers in the untenable position of choosing between respecting civilian authority and upholding democracy. Security cooperation and assistance from international partners should favor African states with a track record of responsible governance within the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa

6562. Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa

Author:
Jon Temin
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

6563. Kosovo: The Next Steps

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Kosovo should not be allowed to stagnate as a "frozen conflict." There are well-established principles that can provide a basis for moving forward. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina on a framework for managing their relationship on practical issues are both possible and necessary, even if they do not happen right away. The time available should be used for careful preparations, especially by Pristina. As Belgrade and Moscow present serious challenges, a joint EU/U.S. effort has the best prospects for success to prevent a "frozen conflict."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Kosovo, Moscow, and Balkans

6564. Zimbabwe: Power-Sharing Deal Under Stress

Author:
Michael Bratton
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Zimbabwe's coalition government is increasingly dysfunctional, mainly due to a defeated incumbent ruler's unwillingness to surrender real executive authority to a popular opposition. The latest dispute over the president's unilateral exercise of appointment powers threatens to escalate into a constitutional crisis that seems likely to be resolved only through fresh elections. International actors can help to bring Zimbabwe's transition to a peaceful and democratic conclusion by guaranteeing power sharing, supervising elections, and maintaining targeted sanctions.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

6565. When Is International Peacemaking Illegal? Implications of the 2010 Supreme Court Decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project

Author:
Stephanie Schwartz
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The June 21st Supreme Court decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project affirmed the constitutionality of the material support statue which makes it illegal for U.S. citizens and organizations to provide material support, including expert advice or assistance, service or personnel, to designated terrorist organizations regardless of whether the support is intended to promote nonviolence and peace. The material support law and the process of listing terrorist groups provides the U.S. government with an enhanced legal structure to arrest alleged terrorists and prevent terrorist acts. However, it is unclear that the process is effective in practice or that enhancing the government's legal power to prevent acts of terrorism outweighs the unintentional consequences of prohibiting nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from working on the front lines of conflict zones to promote conflict resolution. Looking to the future, NGOs can work with the State Department and Congress to find ways to allow peacebuilding and humanitarian organizations to continue their operations legally, while also not threatening national security.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States

6566. Defying Expectations: Polio Vaccination Programs Amid Political and Armed Conflict

Author:
Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Defying expectations, successful polio vaccination campaigns have taken place in well over two dozen armed conflicts, and continue today. Polio vaccination campaigns amid war have often succeeded in gaining the cooperation of anti-government forces such as Sendero Luminoso in Peru, multiple rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Diplomatic means have also been employed to overcome severe political obstacles to such campaigns, even when the campaigns have become a flashpoint in places of political turmoil. Such campaigns face many challenges because vaccinators need to reach all villages without threats to their own lives or the programs' implementation. They require security for safe passage for immunizations and sometimes temporary cease-fires. The many successes of vaccination campaigns can be attributed to the programs' exclusive focus on the immunization needs of children; the use of interlocutors who are credible because they demonstrate neutrality; transparent discussions with opposition groups about the reasons for the campaigns; a role for opposition groups in facilitating the campaigns; limits on the number of days vaccinations take place; and the absence of any strategic or political goals for the effort beyond polio eradication.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Taliban, and Peru

6567. MINURCAT Withdrawal: The Risks to Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Assistance in Eastern Chad

Author:
Erin A. Weir
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Chad hosts over 249,000 refugees from the Darfur conflict and 168,000 internally displaced persons who were relocated after instability caused by Chadian rebel groups. The U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad has been reduced to 1,900 as of October 15, 2010. It will withdraw completely by December 31, 2010. There are concerns about the capacity of the Chadian security forces to adequately protect the population.The government of Chad and the international community must work to ensure the security of the population and humanitarian workers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

6568. Stabilizing Chad: Security, Governance and Development Challenges

Author:
Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On May 20, 2010, USIP and the International Peace Institute brought together some of Chad's national, regional and international stakeholders to discuss Chad's democratization, the regional security dynamics and the management of the oil sector.Electoral reform, as called for in Chad's 2007 "August 13 Political Agreement," has been poorly implemented, endangering the credibility of the upcoming February legislative elections. Improvements in regional security prompted the Chadian government to request the departure of the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which was charged with securing and providing humanitarian relief along the Chad-Central African Republic border. However, many question if Chadian forces can fill the security gap. Oil exports have significantly increased Chad's budget, with most of these gains being invested in the military. The improved regional security provides an opportunity to invest in sectors such as education, health care, and development, which have been neglected.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa

6569. Transparency is the Key to Legitimate Afghan Parliamentary Elections

Author:
Scott Worden
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On September 18, Afghanistan held its second parliamentary elections since the fall of the Taliban. Like last year's vote, these elections were marked by high levels of violence, low turnout and widespread reports of fraud.Despite the challenges, however, Afghans across the country defied Taliban threats and overcame problems with the electoral administration to signal their support for the democratic process. Participation appeared higher among the youth demographic, which is a promising sign for the future of democratic processes in Afghanistan. It is still too early to tell whether the quality of the elections was better than the flawed 2009 process, but the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has improved its procedures and transparency both before and after the elections, and has so far helped to restore the credibility of the institution as a neutral administrator of the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is again under-resourced, has had little time to establish and train the Provincial Electoral Complaints Commissions (PECCs) that will be adjudicating the 4,200 election day complaints, and has yet to make public its decisions regarding the campaign or polling complaints.The ultimate success of the 2010 elections depends less on the level of fraud that was committed on election day-which was bound to be high-and more on the way in which the fraud is handled by the IEC and ECC. If they are transparent and honest about the problems, and take responsible corrective action, then the elections can be considered a partial success despite its flaws.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

6570. Persistent Challenges to Long-Term Peace in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Dorina A. Bekoe and Andrea Bartoli
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The announcement that 429,000 fraudulent or possibly foreign names were on the voters registry halted the preparations for already delayed 2009 presidential election and revived the divisive discussion of citizenship and identity in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivoirité) The stalled electoral process highlighted unresolved issues such as the failed demobilization and disarmament processes and the marginalization of civil society from the implementation of the 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Agreement. In April 2010, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Community of Sant'Egidio and George Mason University's Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution brought key leaders of Ivorian civil society and the religious community to Washington, D.C. to develop an approach for resolving the present political impasse and to actively participate in the peace process. The April meeting resulted in the Washington Appeal, which urges Ivoirians to tolerate ethnic and political diversity, reduce the tensions around elections, identify longstanding grievances, and expand the role of civil society in the peace process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

6571. Humanitarian Space Shrinking for Health Program Delivery in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, humanitarian space has shrunk as the Taliban and other insurgent groups have stepped up attacks on civilians, especially international aid workers, contractors and local leaders. Health programs continue to operate, but the ability of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to recruit and retain staff and to travel outside Kabul has suffered. The United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and other groups have sought to persuade the Taliban and other armed groups not to impede or interfere with humanitarian aid activities. These efforts have had some success where the aid is administered by Afghans, but they have not limited attacks on international staff, who along with all foreigners, remain at high risk of attack. Many NGOs act as implementing partners in the government's strategy to implement a comprehensive primary care system in Afghanistan under the direction of the Ministry of Public Health. They have managed to maintain those services with local staff despite their association with the government of Afghanistan, so long as they operate with impartiality and community engagement. The vulnerability of their staff to attack appears to be a product of generalized insecurity or the presence of foreign aid workers, rather than a result of collaboration with the Ministry.NGOs report that military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and military involvement in the medical sector, have contributed to the shrinkage of humanitarian space. The military's provision of health services through Provincial Reconstruction Teams and other mechanisms, though well-intended, sometimes sows confusion about the allegiances of U.S. and other Western aid workers and creates tensions with humanitarian principles the agencies rely on to operate in conflict environments. The conduct of the Afghanistan National Army and Police and the Pakistan military in entering facilities to gain access to arrest insurgents or gather information also leads to greater insecurity for NGO personnel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Non-Governmental Organization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

6572. Crime, Politics and Violence in Post- Earthquake Haiti

Author:
Louis-Alexandre Berg
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Crime and violence are on the rise in Port-au-Prince due to prisoner escapes during the earth quake. Youth gangs and other armed groups are regaining strength in the most vulnerable neighborhoods and spreading to other areas of the city. In the tent camps around Port-au- Prince, displaced people—especially women—remain vulnerable to crime. These factors have contributed to an increasing sense of insecurity. As political tensions rise in the run-up to elections, armed groups, criminal enterprises and vulnerable youth could once again be mobilized by political forces to fuel violence or disrupt the political process. Gangs and their involvement in criminal and political violence are deeply rooted in Haitian politics, and fueled by widespread poverty, inadequate police presence, government weak ness, and social and economic inequities. Prior to the earthquake, criminal violence had begun to decline due to a combination of political reconciliation, law enforcement operations and investment in marginalized neighborhoods. These fragile gains have been reversed since the earthquake and public confidence in the police has been shaken. Directing resources toward mitigating violence while addressing the underlying sources of crime and violence should remain a priority in post-earthquake reconstruction.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Natural Disasters, and Law Enforcement

6573. Mental Health Services During and After Armed Conflict: The State of Knowledge and Practice

Author:
Leonard Rubenstein and Anjalee Kohli
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There is increasing recognition that the violence, displacement, disruption of communities and social networks, and deprivation stemming from war deeply impact the mental health of individuals and the social cohesion of communities. In response, donors and providers are creating programs for psychosocial or clinical services that seek to be culturally appropriate, attentive to the need to build local capacity, and sustainable. The quality and comprehensiveness of mental health programs offered in crises, however, generally remains mixed. Too often the programs do not sufficiently differentiate among widely varying individual needs or focus predominantly on either community-based interventions or the clinical needs of more severely affected people but not both. Services for people with more severe disabilities often replicate institutional models, and accompanying human rights violations, that existed in the pre-war period. The challenge of providing sound programs, moreover, is complicated by a relatively thin evidence base. In the face of these challenges, the “Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial Support in Emergency Settings” adopted in 2007 by the Interagency Standing Committee (IASC) offer a promising approach. They stress understanding local context, programming that attends to psychosocial support needs of the entire community, meeting clinical needs of people with more severe conditions, and respecting human rights. Following the IASC and building the evidence base by assuring adequate evaluation of funded programs can help meet the tremendous mental health needs of suffering populations.
Topic:
Political Violence, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and War

6574. Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
U.S. military operations in Afghanistan are now entering their tenth year and policymakers in Washington are looking for a way out. A policy review is due in December but the outline is already clear: U.S. forces will try to pummel the Taliban to bring them to the table, responsibility for security will increasingly be transferred to Afghan forces and more money will be provided for economic development. NATO partners agreed at the Lisbon summit to a gradual withdrawal of combat troops with the goal of transitioning to full Afghan control of security by the end of 2014. The aim will be a dignified drawdown of troops as public support wanes while at the same time ensuring that a post-withdrawal Afghanistan, at the very least, does not become the epicentre of transnational terrorism. While success is being measured in numbers of insurgents killed or captured, there is little proof that the operations have disrupted the insurgency's momentum or increased stability. The storyline does not match facts on the ground.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Washington, Taliban, and Lisbon

6575. Côte d'Ivoire : sortir enfin de l'ornière?

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A la veille du second tour de l'élection présidentielle, la tension ne cesse de monter entre les partisans de Laurent Gbagbo et ceux d'Alassane Ouattara. Le 19 et le 22 novembre des échauffourées ont opposé des partisans des deux candidats, faisant, plusieurs blessés. Ces incidents sont symptomatiques de la détérioration du climat en Côte d'Ivoire depuis l'annonce des résultats du premier tour. Ils s'ajoutent à la brutalité de certains discours de campagne et font planer le spectre d'un scrutin calamiteux. L'heure n'est plus à l'autosatisfaction et aux exhortations courtoises. Le message unique de la communauté internationale et des Nations unies doit être clair : les acteurs politiques et militaires ivoiriens doivent accepter les résultats du vote du 28 novembre. Ceux qui opteraient pour le sabotage du dernier acte de cette présidentielle par des fraudes, des intimidations d'électeurs ou des violences s'exposeront à de nouvelles sanctions individuelles de l'ONU.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa

6576. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

6577. Currency Wars?

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A widespread currency war is in prospect. The term was first introduced by Guido Mantega, the finance minster of Brazil. He envisaged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developing an index that measures whether currencies are held artificially low to boost exports (popularly referred to as “currency manipulation”). If that IMF exercise did not lead to an easing of such exchange market intervention, he suggested that an undervalued exchange rate could eventually be considered a commercial subsidy.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Brazil

6578. Will It Be Brussels, Berlin, or Financial Markets that Check Moral Hazard in Europe's Bailout Union? Most Likely the Latter!

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
So far so good for the European Union in preventing the Greek sovereign debt crisis from spiraling out of control in the short term. But with Greece in May 2010 requiring an unprecedented bailout from the European Union/IMF to avoid immediate default and 25 of the European Union's 27 member states currently subject to an “excessive deficit procedure” (European Commission 2010i), it remains evident that the European Union's existing fiscal surveillance framework patently failed both before and during the Great Recession and that Europe's leaders must head back to the drawing board for a required long term reform of the EU fiscal policy and surveillance framework.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

6579. The Central Banker's Case for Doing More

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In this policy brief I present my view on the role of monetary policy in our recovery and whether the major central banks in the United Kingdom and beyond should be doing more in the coming months. Of course, every central bank's policysetting committee has to make its own assessment of the right policy measures for its economy, based on its own forecastand the mandate legally set for it. Thus, I am not presuming to offer a “one size fits all” prescription for central bankers beyond the United Kingdom. I would like, however, to try to give some general assessment of the common challenges we face, and what I believe to be the appropriate monetary policy response, barring special circumstances. Not that there will be any doubt about it, but for the record, these are solely my own personal views.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

6580. Prospects for Implementing the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was signed on June 30, 2007. Since then, the Korean National Assembly has vetted the agreement and the pact cleared a major legislative hurdle when the Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee approved it in April 2009; the full assembly has deferred final passage pending comparable action by the US Congress. In the United States, the ratification process has not yet begun; neither President George W. Bush nor President Barack Obama has submitted implementing legislation to Congress.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Law
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, and Korea

6581. Not All Financial Regulation Is Global

Author:
Nicolas Véron and Stéphane Rottier
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
“All politics is local,” as the saying goes, but all economics is global, and regulation is one area where these two realities meet and conflict. This has been particularly true for financial regulation in the wake of the unprecedented financial crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Genocide, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6582. Cheap but Costly: Constraints of Economic Development in the Coal Mining Industry

Author:
Lina Gong and Sofiah Jamil
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The demand for coal is set to increase over the coming years, especially among developing countries. However, while coal may be a cheap source of energy to facilitate economic development, it is costly in terms of the implications for human security. Coal mining has been seen to adversely impact local communities and cause sociopolitical instability. Long-term environmental sustainability is also negatively affected. This NTS Insight seeks to examine the extent to which governance mechanisms have been successful in mitigating these socioeconomic and environmental costs, with a focus on China and Indonesia. The paper will also assess the effectiveness of current initiatives designed to address the various forms of human insecurities stemming from coal mining in the two countries.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6583. How much do U.S. corporations know (and care) about bilateral investment treaties? Some hints from new survey evidence

Author:
Jason Webb Yackee
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
A remarkable number of countries have recently entered into bilateral investment treaties (BITs) as a means of protecting and promoting inward foreign direct investment (FDI). But do the treaties “work?” In exchange for giving up some mea sure of regulatory autonomy, host countries hope to receive increased flows of investment. Scholars have devoted substantial energy to examining whether this so-called “grand bargain” has in fact been realized. Most studies follow a common research design. The number of BITs that a state has signed are counted up, with the resulting independent variable regressed against country-level FDI flow data. Unfortunately, the results of these various and increasingly complex statistical exercises are inconsistent. 1 Some studies show that BITs can have massive positive impacts on foreign investment; others show modest positive impacts; others show no impact at all, or even a negative impact.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

6584. What will an appreciation of China's currency do to inward and outward FDI?

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Ken Davies
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
What will an appreciation of the Chinese yuan do to China's inward and outward direct investment? The discussion so far has been almost exclusively about the impact on China's trade balance. But it is at least as important to see what effect it may have on the country's inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), which plays such a crucial role in China's economic development, and its outward FDI (OFDI), which is receiving increased attention worldwide.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

6585. Oversight for Cybersecurity Activities

Author:
Adriane Lapointe
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The absence of consensus, and therefore of policy, on how to balance privacy with the need for government cybersecurity measures, has led many to contemplate intelligence oversight practices as a possible model for oversight in the cybersecurity realm. Reliance on intelligence privacy oversight practices for cybersecurity might allow us to duck the hard work of developing appropriate cybersecurity policy, but it would not in the end further cybersecurity for the nation. A better approach would be to adopt the purely structural aspects of Executive Order 12333, developing a parallel executive order tailored to the distinct goals and operational drivers of cybersecurity. Such a document would establish basic guidelines for policy governing cyber mission, frame cybersecurity oversight processes, and mandate the development and approval of procedures to implement them.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Science and Technology

6586. The U.S.-UAE Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: A Gold Standard or Fool's Gold?

Author:
Fred McGoldrick
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It is hard to know what is more disturbing — Iran's continued defiance of UN Security Council Resolutions ordering Tehran to cease its uranium enrichment activities and to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or the tour that North Korea recently gave to U.S. scientists of its new uranium enrichment plant. Policymakers fear that these programs will enable these states to produce more fissile materials for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

6587. Georgia: Securing a Stable Future

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Two and a half years after the war with Russia, Georgia's political life is increasingly turning towards preparations for the 2012-2013 elections and debates around divisions of power after a recent overhaul of the constitution. The substantial amendments, which come into force in 2013 at the same time as President Mikheil Saakashvili steps down due to a term limit, will give much greater power to the prime minister. The next two years will go a long way in determining whether the country progresses toward a truly stable, modern democracy, or deteriorates into a fragile, pseudo-pluralistic and stagnating system. The government and political opposition movement need to use that crucial period to create public trust in democratic institutions. The best way to achieve this is by engaging in meaningful dialogue to ensure a fair election cycle, strengthened rule of law, economic stability and the legitimacy of the future government.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Russia

6588. Chinese Domestic Debates on Soft Power and Public Diplomacy

Author:
Maria Wey-Shen Siow
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Western debates and discussions surrounding China's soft power are more widely known than the discourse within China itself. While the broad parameters of Chinese discussions are fundamentally similar to those of their western counterparts, there are some variations as to how the Chinese perceive soft power. Soft power is after all a largely western concept that has only in recent years made inroads and found widespread acceptance within Chinese policy-making circles. However, broadly speaking, Chinese scholars and analysts agree with the definition of soft power as espoused by Joseph Nye, which is the use of attraction and persuasion in foreign policy, and the appeal of a country based on its culture, values, beliefs, policies, and way of life.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
China

6589. Cash on Delivery: A New Approach to Foreign Aid

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Ayah Mahgoub, and William D. Savedoff
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Foreign aid often works, but it is often criticized for being ineffective or even for undermining progress in developing countries. This brief describes a new approach, Cash on Delivery Aid, which gives recipients full responsibility and authority over funds paid in proportion to verified measures of progress. Through the example of using COD Aid to support universal primary-school completion, the brief illustrates a practical approach to aid that holds the promise of making aid more effective and less burdensome by fundamentally restructuring the relationships of accountability among funders, recipients, and their respective constituencies.
Topic:
Development, Education, Third World, and Foreign Aid

6590. Emerging Africa: How 17 Countries Are Leading the Way

Author:
Steven Radelet
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There's good news out of Africa. Seventeen emerging countries are putting behind them the conflict, stagnation, and dictatorships of the past. Since the mid-1990s, these countries have defied the old negative stereotypes of poverty and failure by achieving steady economic growth, deepening democracy, improving governance, and decreasing poverty.
Topic:
Debt, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

6591. Think Long Term: How Global AIDS Donors Can Strengthen the Health Workforce in Africa

Author:
Nandini Oomman and Christina Droggitis
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
For the past decade, global AIDS donors—including the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEFPAR), the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund), and the World Bank's Multi-Country HIV/AIDS Program for Africa (the MAP)—have responded to HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa as an emergency. Financial and programmatic efforts have been quick, vertical, and HIV-specific. To achieve ambitious HIV/AIDS targets, AIDS donors mobilized health workers from weak and understaffed national health workforces. The shortages were the result of weak data for effective planning, inadequate capacity to train and pay health workers, and fragmentation and poor coordination across the health workforce life-cycle. Ten years and billions of dollars later, the problem still persists. The time has passed for short-term fixes to health workforce shortages. As the largest source of global health resources, AIDS donors must begin to address the long-term problems underlying the shortages and the effects of their efforts on the health workforce more broadly.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

6592. Start with a Girl: A New Agenda for Global Health

Author:
Miriam Temin
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Improving adolescent girls' health and wellbeing is critical to achieving virtually all international development goals, from reducing infant and child deaths to stimulating economic growth and encouraging environmental sustainability. Governments and donors seem to recognize this, but they have yet to take the specific actions needed to genuinely invest in adolescent girls' health and, thereby, the health and wellbeing of generations to come.
Topic:
Development, Gender Issues, Health, Human Rights, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Africa and China

6593. The Transformational Impact of EMU and the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Francesco Paolo Mongelli
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The headwinds facing the euro area are many and substantial: there is no pretence of denial. While most attention is correctly devoted to the size of rescue packages for some countries and the terms of crisis management and resolution mechanisms, we argue that these challenges must also be met from within the euro area. We are aided by a simple framework illustrating how the benefits the euro can generate depend on the degree of openness, flexibility and income correlation among euro area countries. Sharing the euro has steadily transformed euro area economies that are now deeply interconnected. This is generating largely benign effects that represent the intrinsic value of the euro area: it is a shared asset. Yet, such integration has provided the ground for the transmission of the sovereign crisis: through financial exposure, trade linkages and cross-country asset ownership.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

6594. A Renewed Political Deal for Sustainable Growth within the Eurozone and the EU: An Open Letter to the President of the European Council

Author:
Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Richard Baldwin, Giuliano Amato, and Pier Carlo Padoan
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Under current policies, the European Union will only be able to pull itself out of low growth and high unemployment very slowly – too slowly to exclude dangerous economic and political assaults on the Union's continuing cohesion and viability. What is needed is a substantial increase in the EU output growth rate, which has been persistently low for too long a time. With low growth, sovereign debt sustainability in a number of member states will remain uncertain, possibly leading to renewed strains in financial markets and rising spreads that will aggravate the costs of budgetary consolidation. The divergences in productivity and competitiveness and the current external imbalances they engendered can be unwound at an acceptable cost only if growth accelerates in the core and the periphery. On present trends, the adjustment burden might be unbearable for peripheral countries and generate strains that may eventually undermine the euro.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

6595. Consumer Valuation of Energy Supply Security: An Analysis of Survey Results in Three EU Countries

Author:
Wan-Jung Chou, Alistair Hunt, Anil Markandya, Andrea Bigano, Roberta Pierfederici, and Stephane La Branche
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
There is a decided movement in EU energy markets towards a deregulated framework. This framework, however, might lack the necessary incentive structure for generators to maintain high service reliability, thus increasing the risk of generation and transmission outages. Faced with such a challenge, it is crucial for policy-makers to envisage consumer valuation of service reliability in the future so that an acceptable combination of regulatory and economic tools can be applied to maintain adequate security of energy supply that is socially optimal and economically efficient.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6596. Europe's Electricity Supply Security: Strengthening the Chain

Author:
Michele Benini
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Efficient development of electricity transmission infrastructure is crucial to achieving EU targets for a secure, competitive and sustainable electricity supply. However, many uncertainties, such as future load demand, generation supply, electricity prices and increasing time requirements for the realisation of transmission infrastructures in member states, increase the risk that these targets will not be reached. Given the forecasted increase of distributed generation and the introduction of demand response techniques to control load, new decentralised network architectures must be defined to guarantee the system's efficient use and stability. Each link in the chain of electricity security of supply is crucial, from generation to transmission to distribution to demand.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6597. Europe's Coal Supply Security: Obstacles to Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

Author:
Christian von Hirschhausen, Clemens Haftendorn, Johannes Herold, Franziska Holz, Anne Neumann, and Sophia Rüster
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Europe faces a paradox with respect to coal supply security. On the one hand, coal is a reliable fossil fuel, with ample reserves available from a large number of producers. Globally, coal use has risen at a rate of 4.9% annually in recent years (WCI, 2010). Yet on the other hand, Europe's climate policy objectives will not allow continued use unless this 'dirtiest' of all fossil fuels can be transformed into a 'clean' one, e.g. via new carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) technology. CCTS, however, this requires substantial technological advances for application in the medium and long term (MIT, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2005) concludes that CCTS can contribute 15-55% of the cumulative emissions reduction effort through 2100, and assumes a major role in a portfolio of the low carbon technologies needed to mitigate climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2008), CCTS is "the most important single new technology for CO2 savings" in both power generation and industry. However, the IEA's 2009 'Blue Map' scenario also states that 100 carbon capture plants, a minimum of 10,000 km of pipelines and storage of 1.2 GtCO2 are required for CCTS to become a serious abatement technology by 2020. We are nowhere close to these and might never get there.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6598. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

Author:
Andrew Macintosh
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have an impact on the EU. This Policy Brief is a summation of the European Union's vulnerability to natural gas supply security risks.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6599. National Commitments, Compliance and the Future of the Kyoto Protocol

Author:
Noriko Fujiwara and Diarmuid Torney
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Among the many unresolved issues on the agenda of the forthcoming UN climate change negotiations in Cancun is the issue of what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, since at present, there will be no targets for greenhouse (GHG) emissions from developed countries under the Protocol beyond 2012. To illuminate this aspect of the Protocol, this Policy Brief looks closer at the nature of the commitments and the compliance regime under the Kyoto Protocol. We argue that the compliance regime of the Protocol is not as robust as many of the Protocol's supporters might think. The precise legal form of the commitments in the climate regime may have little impact on whether countries actually achieve their targets. Instead, we argue, negotiators should focus on agreeing a framework of commitments that are credible and enforceable, rather than focus excessively on the legal form of those commitments.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

6600. The Bosnian Hiatus: A Story of Misinterpretations

Author:
Goran Tirak
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter: Bosnia or BiH) has often been described as a failed state, but in reality it is actually not that far behind other Western Balkan countries that have aspirations to join the EU. Due to recent developments, however, there is a danger that this gap will widen.
Topic:
Civil War, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans