Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic:

6301. Stalemate in Southern Thailand

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The deadly conflict in Thailand's predominantly Malay Muslim South is at a stalemate. Although military operations might have contributed to the reduction in violence, the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made little effort to tackle the political grievances that drive the insurgency. A limited unilateral suspension of hostilities offered by rebels has met no significant response. Draconian laws that grant security forces sweeping powers remain imposed while justice for serious cases of past abuse remains unaddressed and torture of suspects continues. As bloody anti-government protests in Bangkok distracted the nation in early 2010, the death toll in the six-year-long insurgency steadily climbed. The conflict in the Deep South remains on the margins of Thai politics and unresolved. A paradigm shift is needed to acknowledge that assimilation of Malay Muslims has failed and that recognition of their distinct ethno-religious identity is essential. Dialogue with insurgents and reform of governance structures remain two missing components of a comprehensive political solution.
Topic:: Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

6302. China-Japan Security Relations

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The recent clash between a Chinese fishing vessel and the Japanese coast guard in the East China Sea demonstrates continuing potential for conflict between China and Japan over territory and maritime resources, one that could affect the United States. China's stronger navy and air force in and over the waters east and south of the country's coast is one dimension of that country's growing power. But the deployment of these assets encroaches on the traditional area of operations of Japan's navy and air force - and a clash between Chinese and Japanese ships and planes cannot be ruled out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia

6303. The Drag on India's Military Growth

Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: India's remarkable economic growth and newfound access to arms from abroad have raised the prospect of a major rearmament of the country. But without several policy and organizational changes, India's efforts to modernize its armed forces will not alter the country's ability to deal with critical security threats. Our research suggests that India's military modernization needs a transparent, legitimate and efficient procurement process. Further, a chief of defense staff could reconcile the competing priorities across the three military services. Finally, India's defense research agencies need to be subjected to greater oversight.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Development
Political Geography:: India

6304. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:: Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

6305. South-east European Surplus Arms: State Policies and Practices,

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Ensuring the physical security and proper management of national inventories and surplus stocks is key to minimizing potential hazardous effects on populations and environments surrounding depots.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Environment, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Europe

6306. Under Pressure: Social violence over land and water in Yemen

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In February 2007 at least a dozen people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed during a land dispute between tribesmen from al-Baydha and Sanhan that erupted in a southern suburb of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a. A sheikh from Sanhan kidnapped the son of a sheikh from al-Baydha to pressure him into renouncing ownership of a large plot of land. The youth reportedly fought back, injuring his kidnapper, and was then killed. The boy's family rejected mediation and a gun battle erupted, with further killings apparently occurring when injured fighters were taken to hospital. Fighting was only quelled when the government sent tanks to separate the parties.
Topic:: Political Violence, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries

6307. Hello Missile Defence–Goodbye Nuclear Sharing?

Author:: Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: It appears likely that NATO's new strategic concept, although largely only confirming the status quo on nuclear policy, will also set out the bold decision to adopt a Ballistic Missile Defence System.Through this combination the new strategic concept looks set to herald radical change in long cherished principles about nuclear sharing and to directly address sensitive issues of Alliance cohesion and deterrence posture.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

6308. Democracy and the Chain of Command: A New Governance of Africa's Security Sector

Author:: Dominique Djindjéré
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Africa's senior defense and security officials must adopt higher standards of leadership to reshape Africa's security forces into professional bodies capable of handling contemporary security threats and earning the respect of civilian populations. Politicians' adherence to constitutional limits on power will avoid placing military officers in the untenable position of choosing between respecting civilian authority and upholding democracy. Security cooperation and assistance from international partners should favor African states with a track record of responsible governance within the security sector.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Democratization
Political Geography:: Africa

6309. Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa

Author:: Jon Temin
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: African leaders have recently expressed concern that the possible division of Sudan may lead to a domino effect of other secessions on the continent—but closer analysis questions how likely this may be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Territorial Disputes, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

6310. Kosovo: The Next Steps

Author:: Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Kosovo should not be allowed to stagnate as a "frozen conflict." There are well-established principles that can provide a basis for moving forward. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina on a framework for managing their relationship on practical issues are both possible and necessary, even if they do not happen right away. The time available should be used for careful preparations, especially by Pristina. As Belgrade and Moscow present serious challenges, a joint EU/U.S. effort has the best prospects for success to prevent a "frozen conflict."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Kosovo, Moscow, and Balkans

6311. Zimbabwe: Power-Sharing Deal Under Stress

Author:: Michael Bratton
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Zimbabwe's coalition government is increasingly dysfunctional, mainly due to a defeated incumbent ruler's unwillingness to surrender real executive authority to a popular opposition. The latest dispute over the president's unilateral exercise of appointment powers threatens to escalate into a constitutional crisis that seems likely to be resolved only through fresh elections. International actors can help to bring Zimbabwe's transition to a peaceful and democratic conclusion by guaranteeing power sharing, supervising elections, and maintaining targeted sanctions.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

6312. When Is International Peacemaking Illegal? Implications of the 2010 Supreme Court Decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project

Author:: Stephanie Schwartz
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The June 21st Supreme Court decision in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project affirmed the constitutionality of the material support statue which makes it illegal for U.S. citizens and organizations to provide material support, including expert advice or assistance, service or personnel, to designated terrorist organizations regardless of whether the support is intended to promote nonviolence and peace. The material support law and the process of listing terrorist groups provides the U.S. government with an enhanced legal structure to arrest alleged terrorists and prevent terrorist acts. However, it is unclear that the process is effective in practice or that enhancing the government's legal power to prevent acts of terrorism outweighs the unintentional consequences of prohibiting nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from working on the front lines of conflict zones to promote conflict resolution. Looking to the future, NGOs can work with the State Department and Congress to find ways to allow peacebuilding and humanitarian organizations to continue their operations legally, while also not threatening national security.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: United States

6313. Defying Expectations: Polio Vaccination Programs Amid Political and Armed Conflict

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Defying expectations, successful polio vaccination campaigns have taken place in well over two dozen armed conflicts, and continue today. Polio vaccination campaigns amid war have often succeeded in gaining the cooperation of anti-government forces such as Sendero Luminoso in Peru, multiple rebel groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Diplomatic means have also been employed to overcome severe political obstacles to such campaigns, even when the campaigns have become a flashpoint in places of political turmoil. Such campaigns face many challenges because vaccinators need to reach all villages without threats to their own lives or the programs' implementation. They require security for safe passage for immunizations and sometimes temporary cease-fires. The many successes of vaccination campaigns can be attributed to the programs' exclusive focus on the immunization needs of children; the use of interlocutors who are credible because they demonstrate neutrality; transparent discussions with opposition groups about the reasons for the campaigns; a role for opposition groups in facilitating the campaigns; limits on the number of days vaccinations take place; and the absence of any strategic or political goals for the effort beyond polio eradication.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Taliban, and Peru

6314. MINURCAT Withdrawal: The Risks to Civilian Protection and Humanitarian Assistance in Eastern Chad

Author:: Erin A. Weir
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Chad hosts over 249,000 refugees from the Darfur conflict and 168,000 internally displaced persons who were relocated after instability caused by Chadian rebel groups. The U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad has been reduced to 1,900 as of October 15, 2010. It will withdraw completely by December 31, 2010. There are concerns about the capacity of the Chadian security forces to adequately protect the population.The government of Chad and the international community must work to ensure the security of the population and humanitarian workers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

6315. Stabilizing Chad: Security, Governance and Development Challenges

Author:: Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On May 20, 2010, USIP and the International Peace Institute brought together some of Chad's national, regional and international stakeholders to discuss Chad's democratization, the regional security dynamics and the management of the oil sector.Electoral reform, as called for in Chad's 2007 "August 13 Political Agreement," has been poorly implemented, endangering the credibility of the upcoming February legislative elections. Improvements in regional security prompted the Chadian government to request the departure of the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT), which was charged with securing and providing humanitarian relief along the Chad-Central African Republic border. However, many question if Chadian forces can fill the security gap. Oil exports have significantly increased Chad's budget, with most of these gains being invested in the military. The improved regional security provides an opportunity to invest in sectors such as education, health care, and development, which have been neglected.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:: Africa

6316. Transparency is the Key to Legitimate Afghan Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Scott Worden
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On September 18, Afghanistan held its second parliamentary elections since the fall of the Taliban. Like last year's vote, these elections were marked by high levels of violence, low turnout and widespread reports of fraud.Despite the challenges, however, Afghans across the country defied Taliban threats and overcame problems with the electoral administration to signal their support for the democratic process. Participation appeared higher among the youth demographic, which is a promising sign for the future of democratic processes in Afghanistan. It is still too early to tell whether the quality of the elections was better than the flawed 2009 process, but the Independent Election Commission (IEC) has improved its procedures and transparency both before and after the elections, and has so far helped to restore the credibility of the institution as a neutral administrator of the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) is again under-resourced, has had little time to establish and train the Provincial Electoral Complaints Commissions (PECCs) that will be adjudicating the 4,200 election day complaints, and has yet to make public its decisions regarding the campaign or polling complaints.The ultimate success of the 2010 elections depends less on the level of fraud that was committed on election day-which was bound to be high-and more on the way in which the fraud is handled by the IEC and ECC. If they are transparent and honest about the problems, and take responsible corrective action, then the elections can be considered a partial success despite its flaws.
Topic:: Corruption, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

6317. Persistent Challenges to Long-Term Peace in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:: Dorina A. Bekoe and Andrea Bartoli
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The announcement that 429,000 fraudulent or possibly foreign names were on the voters registry halted the preparations for already delayed 2009 presidential election and revived the divisive discussion of citizenship and identity in Côte d'Ivoire (Ivoirité) The stalled electoral process highlighted unresolved issues such as the failed demobilization and disarmament processes and the marginalization of civil society from the implementation of the 2007 Ouagadougou Peace Agreement. In April 2010, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Community of Sant'Egidio and George Mason University's Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution brought key leaders of Ivorian civil society and the religious community to Washington, D.C. to develop an approach for resolving the present political impasse and to actively participate in the peace process. The April meeting resulted in the Washington Appeal, which urges Ivoirians to tolerate ethnic and political diversity, reduce the tensions around elections, identify longstanding grievances, and expand the role of civil society in the peace process.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa

6318. Humanitarian Space Shrinking for Health Program Delivery in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Afghanistan and Pakistan, humanitarian space has shrunk as the Taliban and other insurgent groups have stepped up attacks on civilians, especially international aid workers, contractors and local leaders. Health programs continue to operate, but the ability of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to recruit and retain staff and to travel outside Kabul has suffered. The United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), and other groups have sought to persuade the Taliban and other armed groups not to impede or interfere with humanitarian aid activities. These efforts have had some success where the aid is administered by Afghans, but they have not limited attacks on international staff, who along with all foreigners, remain at high risk of attack. Many NGOs act as implementing partners in the government's strategy to implement a comprehensive primary care system in Afghanistan under the direction of the Ministry of Public Health. They have managed to maintain those services with local staff despite their association with the government of Afghanistan, so long as they operate with impartiality and community engagement. The vulnerability of their staff to attack appears to be a product of generalized insecurity or the presence of foreign aid workers, rather than a result of collaboration with the Ministry.NGOs report that military activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and military involvement in the medical sector, have contributed to the shrinkage of humanitarian space. The military's provision of health services through Provincial Reconstruction Teams and other mechanisms, though well-intended, sometimes sows confusion about the allegiances of U.S. and other Western aid workers and creates tensions with humanitarian principles the agencies rely on to operate in conflict environments. The conduct of the Afghanistan National Army and Police and the Pakistan military in entering facilities to gain access to arrest insurgents or gather information also leads to greater insecurity for NGO personnel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Non-Governmental Organization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

6319. Crime, Politics and Violence in Post- Earthquake Haiti

Author:: Louis-Alexandre Berg
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Crime and violence are on the rise in Port-au-Prince due to prisoner escapes during the earth quake. Youth gangs and other armed groups are regaining strength in the most vulnerable neighborhoods and spreading to other areas of the city. In the tent camps around Port-au- Prince, displaced people—especially women—remain vulnerable to crime. These factors have contributed to an increasing sense of insecurity. As political tensions rise in the run-up to elections, armed groups, criminal enterprises and vulnerable youth could once again be mobilized by political forces to fuel violence or disrupt the political process. Gangs and their involvement in criminal and political violence are deeply rooted in Haitian politics, and fueled by widespread poverty, inadequate police presence, government weak ness, and social and economic inequities. Prior to the earthquake, criminal violence had begun to decline due to a combination of political reconciliation, law enforcement operations and investment in marginalized neighborhoods. These fragile gains have been reversed since the earthquake and public confidence in the police has been shaken. Directing resources toward mitigating violence while addressing the underlying sources of crime and violence should remain a priority in post-earthquake reconstruction.
Topic:: Political Violence, Crime, Natural Disasters, and Law Enforcement

6320. Mental Health Services During and After Armed Conflict: The State of Knowledge and Practice

Author:: Leonard Rubenstein and Anjalee Kohli
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: There is increasing recognition that the violence, displacement, disruption of communities and social networks, and deprivation stemming from war deeply impact the mental health of individuals and the social cohesion of communities. In response, donors and providers are creating programs for psychosocial or clinical services that seek to be culturally appropriate, attentive to the need to build local capacity, and sustainable. The quality and comprehensiveness of mental health programs offered in crises, however, generally remains mixed. Too often the programs do not sufficiently differentiate among widely varying individual needs or focus predominantly on either community-based interventions or the clinical needs of more severely affected people but not both. Services for people with more severe disabilities often replicate institutional models, and accompanying human rights violations, that existed in the pre-war period. The challenge of providing sound programs, moreover, is complicated by a relatively thin evidence base. In the face of these challenges, the “Guidelines on Mental Health and Psychosocial Support in Emergency Settings” adopted in 2007 by the Interagency Standing Committee (IASC) offer a promising approach. They stress understanding local context, programming that attends to psychosocial support needs of the entire community, meeting clinical needs of people with more severe conditions, and respecting human rights. Following the IASC and building the evidence base by assuring adequate evaluation of funded programs can help meet the tremendous mental health needs of suffering populations.
Topic:: Political Violence, Health, Humanitarian Aid, and War

6321. Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: U.S. military operations in Afghanistan are now entering their tenth year and policymakers in Washington are looking for a way out. A policy review is due in December but the outline is already clear: U.S. forces will try to pummel the Taliban to bring them to the table, responsibility for security will increasingly be transferred to Afghan forces and more money will be provided for economic development. NATO partners agreed at the Lisbon summit to a gradual withdrawal of combat troops with the goal of transitioning to full Afghan control of security by the end of 2014. The aim will be a dignified drawdown of troops as public support wanes while at the same time ensuring that a post-withdrawal Afghanistan, at the very least, does not become the epicentre of transnational terrorism. While success is being measured in numbers of insurgents killed or captured, there is little proof that the operations have disrupted the insurgency's momentum or increased stability. The storyline does not match facts on the ground.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Washington, Taliban, and Lisbon

6322. Côte d'Ivoire : sortir enfin de l'ornière?

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: A la veille du second tour de l'élection présidentielle, la tension ne cesse de monter entre les partisans de Laurent Gbagbo et ceux d'Alassane Ouattara. Le 19 et le 22 novembre des échauffourées ont opposé des partisans des deux candidats, faisant, plusieurs blessés. Ces incidents sont symptomatiques de la détérioration du climat en Côte d'Ivoire depuis l'annonce des résultats du premier tour. Ils s'ajoutent à la brutalité de certains discours de campagne et font planer le spectre d'un scrutin calamiteux. L'heure n'est plus à l'autosatisfaction et aux exhortations courtoises. Le message unique de la communauté internationale et des Nations unies doit être clair : les acteurs politiques et militaires ivoiriens doivent accepter les résultats du vote du 28 novembre. Ceux qui opteraient pour le sabotage du dernier acte de cette présidentielle par des fraudes, des intimidations d'électeurs ou des violences s'exposeront à de nouvelles sanctions individuelles de l'ONU.
Topic:: Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

6323. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future

Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

6324. Currency Wars?

Author:: William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A widespread currency war is in prospect. The term was first introduced by Guido Mantega, the finance minster of Brazil. He envisaged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developing an index that measures whether currencies are held artificially low to boost exports (popularly referred to as “currency manipulation”). If that IMF exercise did not lead to an easing of such exchange market intervention, he suggested that an undervalued exchange rate could eventually be considered a commercial subsidy.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Brazil

6325. Will It Be Brussels, Berlin, or Financial Markets that Check Moral Hazard in Europe's Bailout Union? Most Likely the Latter!

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: So far so good for the European Union in preventing the Greek sovereign debt crisis from spiraling out of control in the short term. But with Greece in May 2010 requiring an unprecedented bailout from the European Union/IMF to avoid immediate default and 25 of the European Union's 27 member states currently subject to an “excessive deficit procedure” (European Commission 2010i), it remains evident that the European Union's existing fiscal surveillance framework patently failed both before and during the Great Recession and that Europe's leaders must head back to the drawing board for a required long term reform of the EU fiscal policy and surveillance framework.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

6326. The Central Banker's Case for Doing More

Author:: Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In this policy brief I present my view on the role of monetary policy in our recovery and whether the major central banks in the United Kingdom and beyond should be doing more in the coming months. Of course, every central bank's policysetting committee has to make its own assessment of the right policy measures for its economy, based on its own forecastand the mandate legally set for it. Thus, I am not presuming to offer a “one size fits all” prescription for central bankers beyond the United Kingdom. I would like, however, to try to give some general assessment of the common challenges we face, and what I believe to be the appropriate monetary policy response, barring special circumstances. Not that there will be any doubt about it, but for the record, these are solely my own personal views.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

6327. Prospects for Implementing the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was signed on June 30, 2007. Since then, the Korean National Assembly has vetted the agreement and the pact cleared a major legislative hurdle when the Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee approved it in April 2009; the full assembly has deferred final passage pending comparable action by the US Congress. In the United States, the ratification process has not yet begun; neither President George W. Bush nor President Barack Obama has submitted implementing legislation to Congress.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Law
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Asia, and Korea

6328. Not All Financial Regulation Is Global

Author:: Nicolas Véron and Stéphane Rottier
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: “All politics is local,” as the saying goes, but all economics is global, and regulation is one area where these two realities meet and conflict. This has been particularly true for financial regulation in the wake of the unprecedented financial crisis.
Topic:: Economics, Genocide, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

6329. Cheap but Costly: Constraints of Economic Development in the Coal Mining Industry

Author:: Lina Gong and Sofiah Jamil
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The demand for coal is set to increase over the coming years, especially among developing countries. However, while coal may be a cheap source of energy to facilitate economic development, it is costly in terms of the implications for human security. Coal mining has been seen to adversely impact local communities and cause sociopolitical instability. Long-term environmental sustainability is also negatively affected. This NTS Insight seeks to examine the extent to which governance mechanisms have been successful in mitigating these socioeconomic and environmental costs, with a focus on China and Indonesia. The paper will also assess the effectiveness of current initiatives designed to address the various forms of human insecurities stemming from coal mining in the two countries.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

6330. How much do U.S. corporations know (and care) about bilateral investment treaties? Some hints from new survey evidence

Author:: Jason Webb Yackee
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: A remarkable number of countries have recently entered into bilateral investment treaties (BITs) as a means of protecting and promoting inward foreign direct investment (FDI). But do the treaties “work?” In exchange for giving up some mea sure of regulatory autonomy, host countries hope to receive increased flows of investment. Scholars have devoted substantial energy to examining whether this so-called “grand bargain” has in fact been realized. Most studies follow a common research design. The number of BITs that a state has signed are counted up, with the resulting independent variable regressed against country-level FDI flow data. Unfortunately, the results of these various and increasingly complex statistical exercises are inconsistent. 1 Some studies show that BITs can have massive positive impacts on foreign investment; others show modest positive impacts; others show no impact at all, or even a negative impact.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

6331. What will an appreciation of China's currency do to inward and outward FDI?

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Ken Davies
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: What will an appreciation of the Chinese yuan do to China's inward and outward direct investment? The discussion so far has been almost exclusively about the impact on China's trade balance. But it is at least as important to see what effect it may have on the country's inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), which plays such a crucial role in China's economic development, and its outward FDI (OFDI), which is receiving increased attention worldwide.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

6332. Oversight for Cybersecurity Activities

Author:: Adriane Lapointe
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The absence of consensus, and therefore of policy, on how to balance privacy with the need for government cybersecurity measures, has led many to contemplate intelligence oversight practices as a possible model for oversight in the cybersecurity realm. Reliance on intelligence privacy oversight practices for cybersecurity might allow us to duck the hard work of developing appropriate cybersecurity policy, but it would not in the end further cybersecurity for the nation. A better approach would be to adopt the purely structural aspects of Executive Order 12333, developing a parallel executive order tailored to the distinct goals and operational drivers of cybersecurity. Such a document would establish basic guidelines for policy governing cyber mission, frame cybersecurity oversight processes, and mandate the development and approval of procedures to implement them.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Science and Technology

6333. The U.S.-UAE Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreement: A Gold Standard or Fool's Gold?

Author:: Fred McGoldrick
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is hard to know what is more disturbing — Iran's continued defiance of UN Security Council Resolutions ordering Tehran to cease its uranium enrichment activities and to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or the tour that North Korea recently gave to U.S. scientists of its new uranium enrichment plant. Policymakers fear that these programs will enable these states to produce more fissile materials for nuclear weapons.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

6334. Georgia: Securing a Stable Future

Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Two and a half years after the war with Russia, Georgia's political life is increasingly turning towards preparations for the 2012-2013 elections and debates around divisions of power after a recent overhaul of the constitution. The substantial amendments, which come into force in 2013 at the same time as President Mikheil Saakashvili steps down due to a term limit, will give much greater power to the prime minister. The next two years will go a long way in determining whether the country progresses toward a truly stable, modern democracy, or deteriorates into a fragile, pseudo-pluralistic and stagnating system. The government and political opposition movement need to use that crucial period to create public trust in democratic institutions. The best way to achieve this is by engaging in meaningful dialogue to ensure a fair election cycle, strengthened rule of law, economic stability and the legitimacy of the future government.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Russia

6335. Chinese Domestic Debates on Soft Power and Public Diplomacy

Author:: Maria Wey-Shen Siow
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Western debates and discussions surrounding China's soft power are more widely known than the discourse within China itself. While the broad parameters of Chinese discussions are fundamentally similar to those of their western counterparts, there are some variations as to how the Chinese perceive soft power. Soft power is after all a largely western concept that has only in recent years made inroads and found widespread acceptance within Chinese policy-making circles. However, broadly speaking, Chinese scholars and analysts agree with the definition of soft power as espoused by Joseph Nye, which is the use of attraction and persuasion in foreign policy, and the appeal of a country based on its culture, values, beliefs, policies, and way of life.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China

6336. Cash on Delivery: A New Approach to Foreign Aid

Author:: Nancy Birdsall, Ayah Mahgoub, and William D. Savedoff
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Foreign aid often works, but it is often criticized for being ineffective or even for undermining progress in developing countries. This brief describes a new approach, Cash on Delivery Aid, which gives recipients full responsibility and authority over funds paid in proportion to verified measures of progress. Through the example of using COD Aid to support universal primary-school completion, the brief illustrates a practical approach to aid that holds the promise of making aid more effective and less burdensome by fundamentally restructuring the relationships of accountability among funders, recipients, and their respective constituencies.
Topic:: Development, Education, Third World, and Foreign Aid

6337. Emerging Africa: How 17 Countries Are Leading the Way

Author:: Steven Radelet
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: There's good news out of Africa. Seventeen emerging countries are putting behind them the conflict, stagnation, and dictatorships of the past. Since the mid-1990s, these countries have defied the old negative stereotypes of poverty and failure by achieving steady economic growth, deepening democracy, improving governance, and decreasing poverty.
Topic:: Debt, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa

6338. Think Long Term: How Global AIDS Donors Can Strengthen the Health Workforce in Africa

Author:: Nandini Oomman and Christina Droggitis
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: For the past decade, global AIDS donors—including the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEFPAR), the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund), and the World Bank's Multi-Country HIV/AIDS Program for Africa (the MAP)—have responded to HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa as an emergency. Financial and programmatic efforts have been quick, vertical, and HIV-specific. To achieve ambitious HIV/AIDS targets, AIDS donors mobilized health workers from weak and understaffed national health workforces. The shortages were the result of weak data for effective planning, inadequate capacity to train and pay health workers, and fragmentation and poor coordination across the health workforce life-cycle. Ten years and billions of dollars later, the problem still persists. The time has passed for short-term fixes to health workforce shortages. As the largest source of global health resources, AIDS donors must begin to address the long-term problems underlying the shortages and the effects of their efforts on the health workforce more broadly.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa

6339. Start with a Girl: A New Agenda for Global Health

Author:: Miriam Temin
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Improving adolescent girls' health and wellbeing is critical to achieving virtually all international development goals, from reducing infant and child deaths to stimulating economic growth and encouraging environmental sustainability. Governments and donors seem to recognize this, but they have yet to take the specific actions needed to genuinely invest in adolescent girls' health and, thereby, the health and wellbeing of generations to come.
Topic:: Development, Gender Issues, Health, Human Rights, and Border Control
Political Geography:: Africa and China

6340. The Transformational Impact of EMU and the Global Financial Crisis

Author:: Francesco Paolo Mongelli
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The headwinds facing the euro area are many and substantial: there is no pretence of denial. While most attention is correctly devoted to the size of rescue packages for some countries and the terms of crisis management and resolution mechanisms, we argue that these challenges must also be met from within the euro area. We are aided by a simple framework illustrating how the benefits the euro can generate depend on the degree of openness, flexibility and income correlation among euro area countries. Sharing the euro has steadily transformed euro area economies that are now deeply interconnected. This is generating largely benign effects that represent the intrinsic value of the euro area: it is a shared asset. Yet, such integration has provided the ground for the transmission of the sovereign crisis: through financial exposure, trade linkages and cross-country asset ownership.
Topic:: Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

6341. A Renewed Political Deal for Sustainable Growth within the Eurozone and the EU: An Open Letter to the President of the European Council

Author:: Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Richard Baldwin, Giuliano Amato, and Pier Carlo Padoan
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Under current policies, the European Union will only be able to pull itself out of low growth and high unemployment very slowly – too slowly to exclude dangerous economic and political assaults on the Union's continuing cohesion and viability. What is needed is a substantial increase in the EU output growth rate, which has been persistently low for too long a time. With low growth, sovereign debt sustainability in a number of member states will remain uncertain, possibly leading to renewed strains in financial markets and rising spreads that will aggravate the costs of budgetary consolidation. The divergences in productivity and competitiveness and the current external imbalances they engendered can be unwound at an acceptable cost only if growth accelerates in the core and the periphery. On present trends, the adjustment burden might be unbearable for peripheral countries and generate strains that may eventually undermine the euro.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

6342. Consumer Valuation of Energy Supply Security: An Analysis of Survey Results in Three EU Countries

Author:: Wan-Jung Chou, Alistair Hunt, Anil Markandya, Andrea Bigano, Roberta Pierfederici, and Stephane La Branche
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: There is a decided movement in EU energy markets towards a deregulated framework. This framework, however, might lack the necessary incentive structure for generators to maintain high service reliability, thus increasing the risk of generation and transmission outages. Faced with such a challenge, it is crucial for policy-makers to envisage consumer valuation of service reliability in the future so that an acceptable combination of regulatory and economic tools can be applied to maintain adequate security of energy supply that is socially optimal and economically efficient.
Topic:: Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

6343. Europe's Electricity Supply Security: Strengthening the Chain

Author:: Michele Benini
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Efficient development of electricity transmission infrastructure is crucial to achieving EU targets for a secure, competitive and sustainable electricity supply. However, many uncertainties, such as future load demand, generation supply, electricity prices and increasing time requirements for the realisation of transmission infrastructures in member states, increase the risk that these targets will not be reached. Given the forecasted increase of distributed generation and the introduction of demand response techniques to control load, new decentralised network architectures must be defined to guarantee the system's efficient use and stability. Each link in the chain of electricity security of supply is crucial, from generation to transmission to distribution to demand.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

6344. Europe's Coal Supply Security: Obstacles to Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

Author:: Christian von Hirschhausen, Clemens Haftendorn, Johannes Herold, Franziska Holz, Anne Neumann, and Sophia Rüster
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Europe faces a paradox with respect to coal supply security. On the one hand, coal is a reliable fossil fuel, with ample reserves available from a large number of producers. Globally, coal use has risen at a rate of 4.9% annually in recent years (WCI, 2010). Yet on the other hand, Europe's climate policy objectives will not allow continued use unless this 'dirtiest' of all fossil fuels can be transformed into a 'clean' one, e.g. via new carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) technology. CCTS, however, this requires substantial technological advances for application in the medium and long term (MIT, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2005) concludes that CCTS can contribute 15-55% of the cumulative emissions reduction effort through 2100, and assumes a major role in a portfolio of the low carbon technologies needed to mitigate climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2008), CCTS is "the most important single new technology for CO2 savings" in both power generation and industry. However, the IEA's 2009 'Blue Map' scenario also states that 100 carbon capture plants, a minimum of 10,000 km of pipelines and storage of 1.2 GtCO2 are required for CCTS to become a serious abatement technology by 2020. We are nowhere close to these and might never get there.
Topic:: Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

6345. Security of Europe's Gas Supply: EU Vulnerability

Author:: Andrew Macintosh
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have an impact on the EU. This Policy Brief is a summation of the European Union's vulnerability to natural gas supply security risks.
Topic:: Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6346. National Commitments, Compliance and the Future of the Kyoto Protocol

Author:: Noriko Fujiwara and Diarmuid Torney
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Among the many unresolved issues on the agenda of the forthcoming UN climate change negotiations in Cancun is the issue of what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, since at present, there will be no targets for greenhouse (GHG) emissions from developed countries under the Protocol beyond 2012. To illuminate this aspect of the Protocol, this Policy Brief looks closer at the nature of the commitments and the compliance regime under the Kyoto Protocol. We argue that the compliance regime of the Protocol is not as robust as many of the Protocol's supporters might think. The precise legal form of the commitments in the climate regime may have little impact on whether countries actually achieve their targets. Instead, we argue, negotiators should focus on agreeing a framework of commitments that are credible and enforceable, rather than focus excessively on the legal form of those commitments.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

6347. The Bosnian Hiatus: A Story of Misinterpretations

Author:: Goran Tirak
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter: Bosnia or BiH) has often been described as a failed state, but in reality it is actually not that far behind other Western Balkan countries that have aspirations to join the EU. Due to recent developments, however, there is a danger that this gap will widen.
Topic:: Civil War, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

6348. Unearthing China's Rare Earths Strategy

Author:: Roderick Kefferputz
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Relations between China and the West have been difficult at best in recent months. Frustrations on both sides have increased palpably. Besides long-standing disagreements over Beijing's policy on the renminbi, the stalled climate change negotiations and human rights, new challenges have also (re)emerged. These include, amongst others, rising concerns over China's role in the South China Sea and the conflict over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Recently, however, one issue in particular has made the headlines: rare earths.
Topic:: Environment, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Europe

6349. The European Council Summit and the Political Economics of the EMU Crisis

Author:: Christian Fahrholz and Cezary Wójcik
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Roger Ailes, a former advisor to Ronald Reagan, recalls in his book an intriguing practice of the ancient Romans: when they finished building a bridge or an arch, they enforced accountability by placing the engineer in charge beneath the construction when the scaffolding was removed. If the edifice did not hold, he was the first to know. We do not follow such drastic practices these days in Europe, but with some European economies shaking and the Greek sovereign debt crisis still not over, the architecture of the euro area has been certainly come under severe stress. Unfortunately, the 28-29 October 2010 European Council Summit has not made this architecture much safer.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

6350. Recurrent cost boom threathens Millennium Development Goals

Author:: Ole Therkildsen
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: At the September 2010 UN summit on the Millennium Development Goals the Secretary-General stressed that tremendous progress in school enrolment, disease control and access to clean water had been achieved. This policy brief addresses a question that he did not talk about. How shall the achievements in relation to the goals be sustained beyond January 1, 2016?
Topic:: Development, Economics, Education, Health, Poverty, and Water
Political Geography:: United Nations

6351. Justice and security – when the state isn't the main provider

Author:: Helene Maria Kyed and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Most people in the world do not take it for granted that the state can or will provide justice and security. Donors who seek to improve access to these services should abandon their concern with 'what ought to be' and focus on 'what works'. This means supporting the providers that exist, and accepting that while wholesale change is not possible, gradual improvement is.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Aid, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Sierra Leone

6352. Recurrent cost boom threathens Millenium Development Goals

Author:: Ole Therkildsen
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The long-term financing of the costs of the Millennium Development Goals – the MDGs – must urgently be addressed. Otherwise, present achievements can be undermined by a potential recurrent cost boom in many poor donor-dependent countries.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: United Nations

6353. Riding the Tiger: China's Rise and the Liberal World Order

Author:: Trine Flockhart and Li Xing
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The re-emergence of China as a key political and economic actor since the liberalization of the late 1970s may well turn out to be one of the most important developments in recent world history. China's economic impact is already felt worldwide, cemented by China's new status as the world's second largest economy, after it overtook Germany in 2009 and Japan in 2010. The question now is what impact China's increasing economic and political power will have on the existing international system and established institutional order, built largely on Western principles and liberal values that are not shared by China.
Topic:: Globalization and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Europe

6354. A new farewell to arms: Viewing disarmament in a new security environment

Author:: Jean Pascal Zanders
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 1909 Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey, Viscount Grey of Fallodon, prophesied the outbreak of World War I when he declared that the naval arms race between Britain and Germany had become the most important single factor increasing tensions and the risk of war in Europe. The judgement captures the kernel of disarmament: certain types of weaponry are inherently so destabilising to international peace and security that they should preferably be removed from the military arsenals. Disarmament became a major objective of the League of Nations in the 1920s and 1930s. Under the Charter of the United Nations it is a responsibility of the General Assembly (Article 11) and the Security Council (Article 26). Today, as in the past, disarmament is one of the policy options available to governments to enhance national security. Barring a decision to unilaterally renounce a particular weapon category or coercive destruction of military equipment following defeat in war, it forms an integral part of cooperative security that aims for stability, predictability and transparency in international relations based on equal rights and obligations for all parties concerned.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and United Nations

6355. Russia's Arctic policy: Geopolitics, mercantilism and identity-building

Author:: Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The maritime border delimitation deal between Russia and Norway sensationally announced by President Dmitri Medvedev in Oslo on 27 April 2010 and signed in Murmansk on 15 September 2010 warrants a re-appraisal of Russia's Arctic policy. The penchant for sensationalism often spills over from the media into policy analysis, which recycles perceptions of the 'struggle for resources' reaching the intensity of a 'great Arctic game' and escalating into a 'new Cold War'. In reality, however, Moscow has not overstepped the rules of international law and has remained committed to the 'club regulations' of several Arctic institutions, so 2010 might set the trend towards a de-escalation of tensions in the High North. It would have been too simplistic to explain away the pronounced emphasis on cooperation in Russia's foreign policy with references to the impact of the economic recession, which has undercut the previous rise of ambitious self-assertiveness. Rather, the Arctic policy is shaped by a dynamic interplay of poorly compatible Russian interests and intentions, and this paper seeks to demonstrate that this interplay cannot be reduced to an equation of security imperatives and economic drivers because immaterial ideas add to its complexity.
Topic:: Cold War and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

6356. Deciphering Egypt's Transition: What do Egypt's botched elections mean for the EU?

Author:: Timo Behr
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Egypt has arrived at a crossroads. After almost three decades in power, the Mubarak era is coming to an end. With President Hosni Mubarak's health reportedly deteriorating, the stage is set for an uncertain transition. Egypt's botched parliamentary elections have been the first act in this succession drama, paving the way for next year's decisive presidential elections. As the Middle East's traditional powerhouse, the outcome of this transition process is going to have important repercussions that will be felt far beyond Egypt's borders.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

6357. The belittled trio: Towards a new managerial identity for the rotating EU Council presidency

Author:: Kaisa Korhonen
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The presidency of the Council of the European Union is still alive and rotating, albeit in a somewhat modified form, after the entering into force of the Treaty of Lisbon on 1 December 2009. At the same time as the prerogatives of the Council presidency were decreased in number by the new treaty, it was overshadowed by two new political figures with presidential mandates–the President of the European Council and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The post-Lisbon role of the Council presidency was tentatively deemed politically unimportant and limited to administrative assistance only. After a year with the Treaty of Lisbon in place, a more nuanced analysis of this new role is, however, justified.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

6358. High expectations, limited resources: The bottlenecks of EU civilian crisis management in Kosovo

Author:: Tanja Tamminen
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: EULEX Kosovo is the flagship of EU civilian crisis management operations. It is the biggest and the most expensive operation ever conducted under the CSDP, employing almost 2,000 international experts and over 1,000 local staff members. All 27 EU member states agreed on sending the EULEX mission to Kosovo on 4 February 2008, only 13 days before the Kosovo independence declaration. Its mandate to assist and strengthen the Kosovo rule of law institutions has been extended until June 2012.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Kosovo and Balkans

6359. Russia-EU cooperation on energy efficiency: Enthusiasm and challenges ahead

Author:: Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The adoption of the new energy efficiency legislation in Russia in 2009 has led to anticipation that a new exciting avenue of cooperation is about to open up in Russia-EU relations. The EU has been called upon to support the Russian initiatives as they would make its energy relations with Russia more stable. Furthermore, because both Russia and the EU are working towards the same goal of making their respective economies more energy efficient, the two are natural partners. This partnership is often postulated in terms of transferring European investments and technologies to Russia’s emerging energy efficiency market.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

6360. Russia's modernization reloaded: Political constraints on economic development

Author:: Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Rumour has it that prior to his first visit to Beijing in spring 2008, President Medvedev instructed officials at the Ministry of Trade and Development to take a picture of Moscow that would aptly convey Russia's drive for modernization and innovation to his Chinese hosts. In carrying out his orders, employees from the ministry spent two months looking for a suitable place to photograph, but it is not known whether they were successful in their quest or not. Perhaps the story is only apocryphal, and no such order was ever given. Nevertheless, the anecdote has sown the seeds of doubt in the minds of the country's current leadership that there is actually not that much to see when it comes to the campaign for the 'technological modernization' of Russia.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Moscow

6361. A Political Storm Over the Nile

Author:: Adonia Ayebare
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The Nile River basin is a vast area covering ten states, of which five are among the poorest in the world. Home to more than 350 million people, it is a troubled region that has been ravaged by armed conflicts, state failure, genocide, severe drought, and aid dependency. But it is also an area with great potential and geopolitical significance. In the past, the Nile River, with its origin in East and Central Africa, has been at the center of international affairs, most critically during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956. Currently, the Nile is among the postreferendum issues being negotiated by parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan: the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Topic:: Natural Resources and Water
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Arabia, and North Africa

6362. Preventing Identity Conflicts Leading to Genocide and Mass Killings

Author:: I. William Zartman
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Genocide and mass killings are preceded and prepared by identity conflicts that escalate into targeted mass killing. They can be the work of rebel movements, but frequently are that of the sovereign state against its own people. They are generally pathologically defensive reactions to a perceived existential threat. What is required to prevent this situation is a return to (or move toward) the ideal condition of “normal politics,” where government responds to the needs and demands of its citizens, and the citizens regularly review its record in adequately providing this response. It is the object of the intervention—the shortcoming to be prevented—that confers a responsibility to protect the target of identity conflict, but there is no agreed threshold of seriousness that compels intervention. Early warnings abound; early awareness and early action are lacking; a “Security Weather Agency” is needed.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Genocide, Human Rights, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Nations

6363. The Sudan Referenda: What Role for International Actors?

Author:: Paul Romita
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Two referenda are scheduled for January 9, 2011, in Sudan. In one, the people of Southern Sudan will decide whether they will remain part of the Republic of the Sudan or form an independent country with its capital in Juba; in the other, residents of the Abyei region will determine whether or not Abyei will become part of Southern Sudan.
Topic:: Civil War, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Sectarian violence, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Juba

6364. Issue Brief: Reaching the OSCE Summit in Astana

Author:: Walter Kemp
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: On December 1 and 2, 2010, Kazakhstan will host the heads of state or government of fifty-six countries for the first summit of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 1999. This is a major achievement for a country that was considered by some to be an inappropriate choice to lead the OSCE. Yet the Astana summit is not a test of Kazakhstan's leadership. It is about the future of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian security, and the viability of the OSCE. At a time when the European Union, Russia, and the United States are redefining their relationships and looking for common ground, the Astana summit provides an opportunity to focus on issues that unite all stakeholders—finding a sense of common purpose to deal with common threats and challenges on the basis of common principles. This brief looks at what it will take to reach the “summit” at Astana, examines the main issues at stake, and considers the relevance and future direction of the OSCE.
Topic:: Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

6365. Five Surprises of the Great Recession

Author:: Uri Dadush and Vera Eidelman
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Latin America

6366. Hunger in the Sahel: A permanent emergency? Ensuring the next drought will not cause another humanitarian crisis

Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In 2010, more than 10 million people, mainly women and children, were victims of the food crisis in the Sahel. Nearly 500,000 severely malnourished children were taken into care between January and November 2010 in Niger, Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso. Most livestock in the Sahel was decimated. The images and the stories of hunger harked back to the food crisis of 2005 and the famines in 1973-1974 and 1984-1985.
Topic:: Agriculture, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa

6367. Ghosts of Christmas Past: Protecting civilians from the LRA

Author:: Ellie Kemp and Verity Johnson
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: On Christmas Eve 2008 and over the following three weeks, 865 women, men and children were savagely beaten to death and hundreds more abducted by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in a remote corner in the north-east of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and in southern Sudan. The attack was a murderous backlash in response to Operation “Lightning Thunder”, a military offensive launched some 10 days before against the LRA by Uganda, DRC and southern Sudan. Less than a year later, between 14 and 17 December 2009, LRA commanders oversaw the killing of more than 300 people, again shattering communities in a remote corner of northern DRC.
Topic:: Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Sudan

6368. Engaging with Communities: The next challenge for peacekeeping

Author:: Clea Kahn
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The protection of civilians from the worst ravages of war is a dilemma that international bodies have sought to address for decades. However, despite lessons learned from the atrocities of Rwanda and Srebrenica, among others, civilians are still not only adversely affected by armed conflict; they are too often directly targeted.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Intelligence, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Sudan

6369. Mapping the Russian Blogosphere

Author:: Anand Varghese
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Analysis of more than 11,000 Russian-language blogs reveals an active political blogosphere comprising internationally linking bloggers; Russian media-focused bloggers; nationalists; members of the democratic opposition; bloggers focused on business, economics, and finance; and social and environmental activists. Russian bloggers tend to be less politically polarized than their counterparts in the American blogosphere, and they prefer to blog about political issues from a nonpartisan position. Future research should focus on the offline outcomes of online political blogging, the effect of blogging platforms on polarization, the responses of the Russian government, and mapping the effects of newer social networking platforms.
Topic:: Globalization, Science and Technology, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: Russia and America

6370. Conflict and Post-Conflict Governance: The Stakeholder Perspective

Author:: Jacleen Mowery, Demis Yanco, and Ryan McClanahan
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Post-conflict governance requires simultaneous and complementary action on three levels. national governance, local governance, and civil society. Norbert Mao, a parliamentary leader from Uganda, offered this progression for managing the trade-off between short-term stabilization and long-term capacity building: "In the emergency phase, you should do it for us. In the reconstruction phase, you should do it with us. And in the development phase, you should do it through us." Efforts to develop the capacity of local governments to deliver services may be more responsive to external assistance than programs aimed at overcoming systemic dysfunctions in the central government, in part because municipal officials are more accountable to their communities. Civil society should be a prominent player in transitioning to “local ownership,” which may erroneously be conceived in terms of ownership by national and perhaps local governments. Building the capacity of civil society entails connectivity with international partners and ideas, not just financing. There are trade-offs involved among the three stakeholders. Among the most salient, when a legacy of abuse of power by the national government and repression of opposition groups must be confronted, an active civil society is essential. An invigorated civil society can fundamentally challenge illicit structures of power that profited from conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies, War, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Uganda

6371. Transcending the Past to Build Haiti\'s Future

Author:: Robert Maguire
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Efforts to build a better Haiti following the catastrophic earthquake of January 2010 are complicated by the challenges of addressing urgent needs, including elections and the cholera outbreak, that run parallel to the rebuilding process and that present an enormous challenge to Haiti\'s under-resourced and weakened government. Enactment of the Haitian government\'s internationally-endorsed and ambitious action recovery plan is hindered by the apparent lack of an over-riding operational framework that will help to ensure not only implementation, but also coherence. Donors and other international actors would be wise to embrace Haiti as a country that has highly propitious fundamentals for successful economic growth, and to build on them. Without important shifts in political, economic and social paradigms, the prospect for Haiti\'s future as a better country that can sustain and expand progress and can improve prospects for all its citizens is clouded.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

6372. Chad's 2007 Peace Agreement Plagued by Poor Implementation

Author:: Delphine Djiraibe
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Political crises and armed opposition movements have plagued Chad for several years. After several failed peace initiatives, the August 13 Agreement was reached in 2007. The agreement is the most viable framework for bringing peace to Chad. It calls on the Chadian government to reform critical electoral institutions, undertake a credible electoral census and demilitarize politics in order to ensure fair and transparent elections. To date, the agreement has been poorly implemented. It jeopardizes the credibility of the upcoming legislative elections, currently scheduled for February 2011. Only comprehensive reform that addresses the development and governance challenges facing Chad will definitively end its political crisis.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

6373. Pakistan: dealing with peace in the tribal areas?

Author:: Laila Bokhari
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The six Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along Pakistan's western border have long been seen as a hub for militants, some with sympathies to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The region has increasingly come to the world's attention as a recruitment and training base for groups responsible for attacks on Pakistani soil and as a launch pad for attacks on US troops and their allies in Afghanistan. Even though the various groups comprising the Pakistani Taliban have been around for a number of years, it was only in December 2007 that they formally established themselves as a united force.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

6374. International responses to Pakistan's water crisis: opportunities and challenges

Author:: Michael Kugelman
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Pakistan faces a multidimensional water crisis that claims hundreds of thousands of lives every year. The root causes of the crisis are twofold: circumstantial, which are linked to poor water-resource management policies (including water-wasting flood irrigation) structural, tied to factors deeply ingrained in politics and society such as the obsession with India, inequitable rural land-ownership and endemic water misgovernance (for example, exploitation of the rotational irrigation system to the detriment of the poor). To resolve the crisis, both types of cause will need to be tackled, and the international community can play an invaluable role.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Pakistan and India

6375. The NBRIC Revolution and International Relations?

Author:: Dr Graeme P. Herd and Mr Dale A. Till
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: We live in the “Anthropocene” era – the Age of Humans: human activity impacts earth's at-mosphere, its climate system, and is the driver of one of the biggest mass extinctions in history.The rapid advancement and application of NBRIC technologies (Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Robotics, and Information and Communications technology) both enable and exacerbate the global impact of human activity. The rise in speed and fall in the cost of computational analysis and the force multiplying convergence of NBRIC clusters have led revolutions in these inter-enabling technologies. Such technologies are located in biological systems where biotechnology and genetics, post-genomics, and epigenetics try and bridge the gulf between the genome and the or-ganism, and material systems, where advances in nanotechnology, robotics and information and communications technologies are ground-breaking.
Topic:: International Relations, Debt, Genocide, Politics, Science and Technology, and Power Politics

6376. The European External Action Service: Implications and Challenges

Author:: Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The 2009 Lisbon Treaty is considered by many a turning point for the EU as it encourages a more coherent and effective use of existing civilian, military, economic, and military instruments. Among its better known innovations is the new post of President of the European Council (currently Mr. Herman van Rompuy) and modified post of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission (presently Baroness Catherine Ashton).
Topic:: International Organization and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

6377. The Kosovo Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice and its Political Consequences

Author:: Pál Dunay and Steven Haines
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Ever since NATO's Operation Allied Force in 1999 resulted in a withdrawal of Serb forces from Kosovo and the establishment of governance arrangements for the province that included an important external presence (with UN, EU, NATO and OSCE missions) as well as Kosovo's own Provisional Institutions of Self Government, the precise future status of Kosovo has been in doubt. Two extreme options were favoured by Serbia and Kosovo, respectively: either for Kosovo to continue as a part of Serbia or for it to achieve independent status (most likely by attaining statehood). On 17 February 2008, a group of Kosovo leaders issued a Declaration of Independence. Serbia responded with a request that the UN General Assembly seek an opinion on the legality of Kosovo's action from the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The Court delivered its Opinion on 22 July 2010. What did the Court say and what are the political consequences of its Opinion?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Law, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, United Nations, and Balkans

6378. Why Didn't the Global Economic and Financial Crisis Have More of an Impact on International Migration?

Author:: Khalid Koser
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Economic and financial crises have always impacted on international migration patterns, processes, and policies. The Great Depression (1929- 33) resulted in massive repatriations of Latin Americans from the United States and the introduction of highly restrictive immigration policies in a number of industrialized countries, including France and Canada. The Oil Crisis (1973) resulted in severe restrictions on labour migration, a concomitant growth in asylum applications and irregular migration in Europe, and the emergence of new flows of labour migration to emerging industrial centres in Asia and Latin America. As a result of the Asian financial crisis (1997-99) several South-East Asian countries introduced policies of national preference and sought to expel migrant workers. The Russian financial crisis (1998) accelerated rates of emigration from Russia, in particular of Russian Jews and the highly-skilled. The gravity of the Latin American financial crisis (1998- 2002) also resulted in a significant exodus, in particular from Argentina.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, and Latin America

6379. Not Beyond Limits: The Prospects of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Author:: Pál Dunay
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created in 2001, and it is the first regional integration attempt in the post - Soviet space that has spread beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet Union, and has included the People's Republic of China. Since its inception the organization has gone through breathtaking developments, simultaneously broadening and deepening its agenda. Its international surrounding has also changed fundamentally. Following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 the strategic importance of the area where the SCO has been operating increased enormously, with particular reference to Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the last two being SCO members. The organization's special relationship with Afghanistan is another factor that has contributed to the SCO's increasing stature. The importance of natural resources (primarily oil and gas) has steadily increased, and this is likely to be a prolonged point of contention between all the major powers, among others, in Central Asia.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, and Israel

6380. Kyrgyzstan's Regime Change: Causes and Possible Consequences

Author:: Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: On 10 June 2010 in the southern Kyrgyz city of Osh violence erupted, spreading to Jalalabad two days later, with reports of armed gangs, inter - ethnic violence, rape, and stampedes at border crossings into Uzbekistan. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as well as Rosa Otunbayeva the acting interim government Prime Minister and President, stated that over 200 people had been killed, over 2000 wounded, with 400,000 (8% of the Kyrgyz population) displaced – 300,000 internally, 100,000 as refugees into Uzbekistan's neighbouring Andizhan province. China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Germany and Russia amongst others, airlifted their foreign nationals to Bishkek and beyond (see Map: Kyrgyzstan's Complex Emergency).
Topic:: Political Violence and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

6381. A Bright Future for International Law?

Author:: Steven Haines
Publication Date:: 06-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: During the period of the Bush presidency, from 2001-2009, there was much concern expressed, both domestically within the United States and internationally, about Washington's apparently cavalier attitude towards international law. 1 Much of this – though by no means all – was prompted by the US reaction to the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington (the so-called 'global war on terrorism'), and the decision in 2002/3 to opt for regime change in Iraq. For many commentators it seemed as though US policy in that period provided solid evidence that law within the international system was of little influence in the face of determined power. This perception reflects realist assumptions about the pre-eminence of national interest and power as determinants of policy. Of particular moment is the power of those states that fall within the category of 'great power' – and 'superpower' has a special quality all its own.
Topic:: Economics, International Law, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States

6382. Building Partnerships in Peace Operations: The Limits of the Global/Regional Approach

Author:: Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: A consensus seems to exist on the need to tackle contemporary intra-state conflicts through a multiplicity of actors who display different comparative advantages and levels of expertise. For the United Nations as well as for the regional organisations that, since the end of the Cold War, have emerged as crisis management actors, working together is the way forward. The UN and the EU run or have run simultaneous operations in Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chad) and Kosovo and have largely institutionalised their cooperation; the UN took over operations initially deployed by the African Union in West Africa and in Burundi and the two institutions have created a hybrid UN-AU mission in Darfur; the EU is assisting the AU in the building-up of its Stand-by Force and finances AU operations; the EU, the OSCE and NATO have for some time shared the burden of security management in the Balkans. As noted in a UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) document, “reinforcing interoperability with key partners […] can enhance cooperation and ensure that we maximise finite global peacekeeping resources”. Indeed, given the scope of crisis management needs, not least the UN overstretch, burden-sharing has become an imperative and its corollary, inter-institutional partnerships, equally central. Yet, the establishment of partnerships among international institutions is facing important political and technical difficulties that make the prospect for an interlocking system unlikely.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Globalization, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kosovo, and United Nations

6383. Russia's Strategic Choice

Author:: Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of the global financial crisis, a debate over necessary policy responses morphed into something much more profound and fundamental – the sustainability of Russia's current governance model and its preferred longer-term modernization paradigm. On 10 September 2009 President Medvedev published a remarkably frank article entitled 'Russia, Forward!' This article noted that Russia's governance model appeared to be failing, proving vulnerable in the face of the global financial crisis. President Medvedev himself criticized Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on raw materials, as well as its 'inefficient economy, a semi-Soviet social sphere, an immature democracy, negative demographic trends, unstable Caucasus.' In his 12 November 2009 Message to the Federal Assembly, Medvedev elaborated further on this theme: Russia could either modernize or deteriorate; modernization would provide a touchstone for 'how we can overcome our chronic backwardness, dependence on raw materials exports, and corruption'. On 3 February 2010, the Institute for Contemporary Development (INSOR) published a report that received widespread coverage entitled 21st Century Russia: The Image of Tomorrow We Want. As President Medvedev had created INSOR in 2008 to give him independent advice on economic and foreign policy and sat as a trustee on its board, this report received widespread publicity. Such publicity was magnified as the report touched just about every exposed nerve by advocating that Russia should join NATO, end censorship, abolish the state security service, and adopt a Western-style democracy, entailing the separation of the courts from the state, of the legislative branch from the executive, horizontal modernization (characterized as the debureaucratization of the vertical top-down corrupt, over-regulated economic process)3. Without change, Russia faced a strategic cul de sac that leads to slow and steady strategic marginalization: 'In a few years, when it turns out that Russia has nothing to boast about except export supplies of raw materials at prices that are dictated to us, we will be exporting people. And, not only the cleverest like now, but any workers, who are in demand in Europe, as is happening today in Latvia, for example. I frankly do not know what Russia should do in this situation. This problem will be one of the main ones for the president who is elected in 2012
Topic:: Democratization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Latvia

6384. Ten Years of Women, Peace and Security: Gaps and Challenges in Implementing Resolution 1325

Author:: Nils Goede and Swen Dornig
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: On 26 October 2010, the UN Security Council (SC) marked the 10th anniversary of Security Council resolution (SCR) 1325. With the adoption of SCR 1325, the SC recognised the disproportionate impact of armed conflicts on women and girls for the first time and further emphasized the decisive role of women in preventing conflicts and consolidating peace. At the time of its adoption, SCR 1325 was recognized as a major breakthrough for greater gender equality in the area of peace and security and the acceptance of women as active agents in conflict management. Three further SCRs – 1820, 1888 and 1889 – now strengthen the women, peace and security (WPS) framework.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Gender Issues, and War
Political Geography:: United Nations

6385. Energy Innovation Policy in Major Emerging Countries

Author:: Ruud Kempener
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the six BRIMCS countries— Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, China, and South Africa—have become important global players in political and economic domains. In 2007, they were collectively responsible for a third of the world's energy consumption, driven by China's growing energy use. Despite their increasing significance in the world's energy sector, very little systematic analysis of their energy investments, innovation institutions, and energy innovation policies has taken place. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is one of the few agencies that have been collecting data on ERD investments, but none of the BRIMCS countries are members.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

6386. Towards a Breakthrough for Deadlocked Climate Change Negotiations

Author:: Akihiro Sawa
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: With the gap between developed and developing nations remaining unclosed, post-Kyoto Protocol negotiations have run into rough waters: Developing countries insist that developed countries be committed to more ambitious targets for the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol and provide large amounts of financial or technological assistance to developing countries, while developed countries propose that financial and technological support be balanced with developing countries' mitigation actions and measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV).
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements

6387. The International Climate Change Regime: The Road from Copenhagen

Author:: Daniel Bodansky
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The failure of the Copenhagen conference to adopt a new legal agreement on climate change is blamed by some on poor chairing or other transitory factors. But the problems with the UN climate-change negotiations are more fundamental and are unlikely to go away anytime soon. Rather than putting all of our eggs in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) basket or listening to the siren song of a new legal agreement, states should seek to address climate change in additional forums and through additional means.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

6388. Addressing the UAE Natural Gas Crisis: Strategies for a Rational Energy Policy

Author:: Justin Dargin
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Although it seems inconceivable, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is facing an enormous energy shortage. Much of the world views the UAE – and the rest of the Gulf countries by extension – as an inexhaustible reserve of hydrocarbons. However, as with many of the other Gulf countries, the UAE confronts a potentially far reaching energy crisis. Despite increased energy production and imported Qatari gas through the Dolphin natural gas pipeline, UAE domestic gas demand substantially exceeds available supply. This disparity created a shortfall met by an increasing use of fuel oil, natural gas liquids, and in certain circumstances, coal. But it is natural gas that continues to be the UAE's most important domestic energy source.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

6389. The Carter Center News Spring 2010

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: In 1986, when The Carter Center decided to take on the challenge of eradicating Guinea worm disease, outside observers probably believed success to be impossible. After all, there were 3.5 million cases of the disease spread across 20 countries in impoverished areas and no vaccine or medicine to stop the scourge. Not to mention that The Carter Center was a four-year-old organization with just a handful of staff.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Guinea

6390. Carter Center News Spring 2010

Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Men and women around the world, many of whom live on less than a dollar a day, volunteer their time to knock on a neighbor's door to distribute medicines that prevent horrible diseases or sit watchfully at a polling station to ensure each person's vote is counted. Networks like these of active citizens across the globe are vital to the Carter Center's impact and reach.
Topic:: Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid

6391. The pernicious institution of the party-appointed arbitrator

Author:: Hans Smit
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As arbitration has grown by leaps and bounds, so has the role of the party-appointed arbitrator. Surprisingly, this has not led to increased inquiry into the appropriateness of having arbitrators appointed by the parties in general, or in arbitrations against states in particular. In my judgment, party-appointed arbitrators should be banned unless their role as advocates for the party that appointed them is fully disclosed and accepted. Until this is done, arbitration can never meet its aspiration of providing dispassionate adjudication by those with special skills and experience in a process designed to combine efficiency with expertise.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
Political Geography:: Colombia

6392. State-controlled entities as claimants in international investment arbitration: an early assessment

Author:: Michael D. Nolan and Frédéric Sourgens
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: State-controlled entities (SCEs) are increasingly important participants in international investment flows and international trade. Cumulative FDI by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) has reportedly reached US$100 billion. SWFs are significant equity investors in, and provide significant debt financing to, every kind of company, from professional sports franchises to container ports. In addition to the role of these funds, national oil companies are growing in regional and international importance. In many countries, other industries are also increasingly government-owned.
Topic:: Development, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States

6393. U.S.-Japan-India Strategic Dialogue September 22-24, 2010

Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Recognizing the strategic potential for expanding cooperation on regional and global challenges and the shared values among the United States, Japan and India, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) initiated the U.S.-Japan-India Strategic Dialogue in June 2006.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and India

6394. Iran's Youth, The Unintended Victims of Sanctions

Author:: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The effect of the international sanctions on Iran is to deepen its current economic recession and make recovery very difficult if not impossible. In doing so, it will inflict pain on the general population. By prolonging the recession, the sanctions will hurt Iran's youth (15-29 year olds) particularly harshly, as they will bear the brunt of the resulting unemployment. They account for 70 percent of unemployment, and any improvement in their condition depends on economic recovery.
Topic:: Economics and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States and Iran

6395. Sudan: Fulfilling the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: Sudan stands today at a precipice. In 100 days the South will hold a referendum on self-determination with a vote for independence expected. Extensive early warnings exist indicating a real threat of the commission of mass atrocities surrounding the referendum, with those populations most at risk already identified. This threat looms while intertribal violence in the South is rising; conflict in Darfur persists; attacks by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in Central and Western Equatorial states continue unabated; and a return to war in the South is a possibility.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

6396. Revitalising Papua New Guinea's health system: the need for creative approaches

Author:: Katherine Lepani and Julienne McKay
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: There is significant potential for the PNG government to deliver better health services for all Papuan New Guineans. Major health problems are now preventable. Cost-effective options are available to Papua New Guineans to treat malaria, pneumonia, tuberculosis and HIV as well as to reduce infant and maternal mortality. In this Policy Brief Julienne McKay and Dr Katherine Lepani explore how demand-responsive mechanisms (vouchers, micro-health insurance, social franchises and social businesses) can be a compelling addition to strengthening health systems in PNG. The research looks at the potential use of these instruments with a focus on HIV, maternal health, tuberculosis and malaria, and contains policy recommendations for government, the private sector and donors.
Topic:: Health and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Guinea

6397. Dropping the autopilot: improving Australia's defence diplomacy

Author:: Nicholas Floyd
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? With Canberra's instruments of international policy under strain, the military offers much potential as a foreign policy force multiplier. The Australian Department of Defence has 92 defence advisory staff in diplomatic missions, and about 560 other staff overseas, not counting troops on deployment. There has been recent movement away from an old-fashioned defence diplomacy based more on habit and individual initiative than on strategic or whole-of-government guidance. This movement needs to be consolidated and built upon. The nation needs to drop any remnants of its autopilot approach to defence diplomacy.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

6398. A digital DFAT: joining the 21st century

Author:: Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) needs to keep pace with technological advancements that could increase efficiency, improve internal and external communication, and facilitate information exchange and gathering. Without e-diplomacy DFAT will be cut off from important audiences and find it increasingly hard to communicate its messages and coordinate Australian foreign policy across government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

6399. An Update on EU Financial Reforms

Author:: Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the context of a transatlantic comparison, the first thing to be mentioned is the difference between the time sequence of financial reforms in the European Union and its equivalent in the United States. The financial crisis started simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic, with the initial disruption of some financial market segments in August 2007 and the major panic episode of September through October 2008. But they are not at the same stage of policy reaction and especially regulatory reform now. At least four reasons can be identified for this difference.
Topic:: Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

6400. Strengthening IMF Surveillance: A Comprehensive Proposal

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The central challenge facing the global economy and financial system today is the failure of countries to limit the negative effects of their policies on other countries and on global economic and financial stability. The most prominent manifestations of this challenge are the balance-of-payments adjustment process and the notorious asymmetry therein, spillovers from other countries' financial-sector policies such as those involved in the crisis of 2007–10, and the prospect of sustained unbalanced growth in the global economy with some countries overheating and others facing substantial excess capacity. Against this background, I propose an approach to strengthened IMF surveillance over the economic and financial policies of its member countries.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

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