Search

Begin New Search Content Type Policy Brief

21. Catch-up and Leapfrog Strategies for Developing Countries: Making a Case for a Social Spring

Author:
Leonardo Paz Neves
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
There is an ongoing consensus that we are on the brink, if not already started, of a major technological revolution. The Fourth Industrial Revolution has a wider and deeper transformative power. It could be considered a major paradigm shift of our time. Its importance is characterized by a wave of innovation in many fields, yet it is not compartmentalized in silos of technological advancements and product innovation. Each of those breakthroughs ripples in many other spheres as productive, labor, social, economic, health, etc. And in every transition, every transformation, new opportunity arrives. In paradigm shifts like these, ‘Windows of Opportunity’ are opened. Perez and Soete (1988) studied the entry phase, which developing countries should use in their development strategies to catch-up with industrialized countries, arguing that from time to time, the entry barriers recede, creating a window of opportunity for those developing countries. Taking advantage of these windows of opportunity is fundamentally conditioned to the ‘social capability’ of these lagging countries (Abramovitz 1995). There is because, in the moments in which the edge based in tech experience is not a determinant factor and the entry barriers recede, latecomers have a better chance in catching-up. But, they will only be able to compete with the leading economies if certain social conditions are met. With fewer development pol-icy options, these countries will have to go be-yond the classic developmental approach to succeed in leapfrogging and take the lead. Thus, while forging their path towards devel-opment, developing countries should try to take their own past experience and reassess it from a different perspective.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Development, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Munsu Kang
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

23. Developing ODA Evaluation Methodology for Technical Cooperation

Author:
Eunsuk Lee and Hyemin Yoon
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
As the volume of Korea's official development assistance (ODA) expands, the demand for systematic management of evaluations and improvement of their usefulness is increasing. This study focuses on developing evaluation methodology for technical cooperation (TC) which is an important part of Korea’s ODA. Based on the case studies of six multilateral organizations and four bilateral development agencies, we draw lessons for Korean ODA agencies in terms of selection criteria, types, and methodological aspects of evaluation of technical cooperation and propose a four-step project management and evaluation mechanism for TC activities.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Science and Technology, and Management
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

24. The Impact of Populist Executive on the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America

Author:
Seungho Lee
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Populist forces have been resilient in Latin America and continue to cause instability and uncertainty across the region. Populist figures in the region first rose to prominence during the period of import substitution industrialization in the 1930s, capitalizing on the growing demands for mass politics and better social benefits from the rapidly expanding urban working class. Populism, which had been rampant in Latin America for more than 30 years since then, seemed to fade into obscurity with military regimes which have dominated regional politics in the 1960s and 1970s. However, after a series of democratic transitions, Latin American democracies witnessed yet another wave of populism. A notable number of candidates with a populist discourse have achieved victories in presidential elections in the 1980s and 1990s. With the wave of democratization and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction due to a series of economic crises, some so-called neopopulists took power in a number of Latin American countries. They attracted voters by combining neoliberal economic policies with the typical “us-versus-them” discourse, demonstrating that any economic ideology can be linked to populist ideas. The new millennium witnessed another tide of populist presidents across the region. While a rapid transition to neoliberal policies led to various socioeconomic problems, traditional parties and politicians could not respond effectively to the emerging problems. This time around, left-wing populist figures dominated the region’s political landscapes, combining populist ideas with so-called 21st-century socialism. While the era of radical left-wing populists came to an end, new breeds of populists appeared one after another and were elected to office in the 2010s. Not many expect that populist executives will cease to exist across the region in the near future. Social and economic inequality is worsening in the aftermath of COVID-19, and the public distrust of established party politics and existing democratic institutions is growing more than ever. All in all, there is fertile ground for populist forces to spread even more, who claim that they are the only ones who can eliminate the "incompetent and corrupt" establishment and truly represent the "virtuous" people. Against this backdrop, there is a growing need to improve our understanding of the characteristics of populist governments that have repeatedly emerged in the region. Among many channels through which populist rule influences Latin American countries, Lee et al. (2022) dedicate one of their chapters to analyzing the impact of populist rule on the inflow of foreign direct investment, a variable of much importance in Latin American economies.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Populism, and Instability
Political Geography:
Latin America

25. International Humanitarian Assistance and Multilateral Cooperation in North Korea

Author:
Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The economic situation in North Korea is worsening. If an economic crisis occurs in North Korea, the first thing that will be pursued is humanitarian aid from the international community. North Korea's problems should not spread beyond North Korea, and above all, the international community should help ensure that the residents of North Korea can live at a minimum level of respect as human beings. This article aims to examine international humanitarian aid to North Korea and multilateral cooperation. We will examine how international humanitarian aid to North Korea has been carried out so far, what North Korea's position is on international support, and what the achievements of multilateral cooperation have been.
Topic:
Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

26. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Does Institutional Quality Matter to Korean Outward FDI? A Gravity Model Analysis

Author:
Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
According to Korea’s Ministry of Knowledge Economy (currently the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy), foreign investment has now become one of the major economic pillars driving the Korean economy over the past 15 years (Tang 2022). The Korean economy started to open up to rest of the world following the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and was the biggest FDI policy reformer among 40 developed and emerging economies over the period from 1997 to 2010 (Nicolas et al. 2013). Over the last decade, Korea’s outward FDI grew much faster than inward FDI (See Figure 1) and Korea is now a net capital exporter to the world. In 2021, Korea’s outward FDI flows totaled $76.64 billion and a total of 2323 Korean enterprises invested in overseas countries (Korea EXIM Bank 2022). Due to this increased amount of outward FDI, a large number of studies (Kim and Rhee 2009; Park and Jung 2020) investigated what determines Korea’s outward FDI (OFDI). Institutional quality is found to be a major determinant in FDI literature in general. It suggests that political risk (lack of/poor institutional quality) not only deters FDI inflows to host countries but also can lead FDI to countries with higher risks and to ‘pollution heaven’ which might have an adverse impact on long term growth and development in both host and home countries. There are strong empirical evidences in literature that lack of institutional quality or good governance is associated with lower FDI inflows. An extensive literature (Alfaro et al. 2008; Ali et al. 2010; Akhtaruzzaman et al. 2017; Bénassy‐Quéré et al. 2007) investigated FDI response to various types of institutional quality in FDI host countries. Over the last 20 years data evidenced that Korea’s OFDI flowed to developing countries with a sustained large gap existing in institutional quality between host countries and Korea (See, Fig 2 top panel); however; those countries had been offering a higher degree of capital account openness. A sharp increase in capital account openness since the early 2000s coincides with sharp increase in Korea’s OFDI to those host countries. For example, Peru was the least open economy and started to initiate measures to open capital account since the mid-90s and early 2000s. The degree of openness in Peru is now similar to that of developed countries. On the other hand, Peru is one of the least progressed countries in terms of institutional quality over the same period of time. This slow or no progress in institutional quality is a common pattern of institutional improvement for a large sample of host countries of Korea’s OFDI (see, Figure 2). However, those developing countries including Peru are regular destinations of a substantial amount of Korea’s OFDI. Does this suggest that institutional quality of host country does not matter to Korean investors, or is there a 3rd factor mitigating the impact of institutional quality on Korea’s OFDI? Few studies on Korea’s OFDI considered institutional quality of host country as a control variable instead of main determinant of FDI (Park and Jung 2020). However, existing studies do not explain why Korea’s OFDI flowed to countries with a large gap in institutional quality between Korea and host countries. This research fills the gap in the literature of Korea’s OFDI. The findings of this research suggest that high degree of capital account openness (a factor that ensures profit repatriation of investors) weakened the negative impact of poor institutional quality in host countries on Korea’s OFDI. The remaining of this paper is organised as follows. Section II reviews relevant literature of FDI and identifies major determinants for Korea’s OFDI from existing studies; Section III discusses research method and empirical issues; Section IV presents the research findings; Section V concludes the research, points to the research limitations, and provides policy recommendations.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Institutions, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

28. Analysis on the Determinants of Labor Share and Its Policy Implications

Author:
Yaein Baek, Minsoo Han, Wongi Kim, and Hyunsuk Kim
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
There has been a significant decline in the global labor share, leading to numerous studies about the cause of this drop. The labor share is used as one of the main indicators of inequality because a decrease in the labor share can lead to aggravation of income inequality. This is because low-skilled workers can be greatly affected by such a decline in the labor share and the main source of in-come for the low-income class, including the self-employed, is labor income. Among various indicators of inequality, this study analyzes the determinants of the change in labor share. Technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in information and communications technology (ICT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are expected to change the labor market. Hence, this study analyzes the impact of technological changes on labor share and suggests policy responses.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Analysis of India's New and Renewable Energy Market and Policies and Implications for Korea-India Cooperation

Author:
Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The importance of new and renewable en-ergy has been drawing attention since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. In response to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Korean government declared carbon neutrality by 2050 and announced policy plans to create a low-carbon ecosystem in 2020. However, the domestic new and re-newable energy market is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosys-tem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation pro-jects. Thus, it is believed that energy cooperation with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, India can be a good partner for Korea in the renewable sector. To have a clear understanding of India’s renewable energy market, we conduct the analysis on India’s renewable energy market and policy, which we will explore in this article.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Renewable Energy, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

30. Network and Text Analysis on Digital Trade Agreements

Author:
Kyu Yub Lee, Cheon-Kee Lee, Won Seok Choi, Jyun-Hyun Eom, and Unjung Whang
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
We use the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data and their corresponding texts to undertake network and text analysis on trade agreements with digital trade chapters to identify which countries are important in the network and how similar or different their texts of digital trade chapters are. centrality values reflect which countries are influential in the network, while values of similarity assess the level of similarity between the texts of digital trade chapters concluded by these countries. Centrality and similarity are complementary in assessing the relative positions of countries in the network, where the number of linkages between countries is significant in centrality and the quality of digital trade chapters is critical in similarity. We interpret this to mean that a country with a high degree of centrality is likely to be a rule-promoter in the network, whereas a country with a high degree of similarity is likely to be a rule-maker. The brief highlights three key findings from network and text analysis of digital trade agreements: (1) The U.S. has been the best rule-maker but not the best rule-promoter, whereas Singapore has been the best rule-promoter but not the best rule-maker. (2) China is a rule-maker, but to a weaker extent than the U.S., and Korea is a rule-promoter, although it is less active than Singapore. (3) Japan and Australia have served as both rule-makers and rule-promoters. Identification of countries’ relative positions in the network of digital trade agreements would be useful at the start of talks on digital trade policy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Digital Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and United States of America

31. China's Green Transition Policies and Its Implications for Korea

Author:
Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In China, carbon emissions from the energy and heat producing sector account for 53.4% of total emissions, with industry (28.6%) and transportation (8.9%) being the main carbon emission sectors. Therefore, various green transition policies in energy, industry and transportation are being pursued in Chinese cities. In Chinese cities, the promotion of rooftop-distributed photovoltaic power generation, among renewable energy sources, is evaluated to be capable of intensive development, reducing power peak load, and inducing residents to consume green energy. Policies are being implemented in urban industries to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, increase energy use efficiency, improve resource use levels, and improve green manufacturing systems. In the transportation sector, China's policies to reduce emissions, expand the supply of new energy vehicles, and strengthen green transportation technology are representative. Consequently, this study summarizes the policy implications, areas of Korea-China cooperation, and risk factors of China's green transition promotion plan for its Chinese cities.
Topic:
Transportation, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

32. Strategies of Multinational Companies Entering China in the Era of U.S.-China Competition and Implications for Korea

Author:
Sang Baek Hyun, Ji Young Moon, Min-suk Park, Jonghyuk Oh, and Yunmi Oh
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
With the integration of resources and markets around the world sparked by the trend of globalization, multinational companies have continued to grow at a rapid pace. In particular, global manufacturers have maintained their competitiveness by distributing resources more efficiently while establishing a global value chain with China as their main production hub. However, measures taken by the U.S. to block China’s access to technology and supply chains in some high-tech industries have prompted discussions on reorganization of the global supply chain, placing these multinational companies in an uncertain situation concerning their operations in China. At a time when competition between the U.S. and China is intensifying, it is necessary to look at the response strategies of global companies that have entered China and seek effective countermeasures for Korean companies.
Topic:
Economics, Multinational Corporations, Manufacturing, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

33. Higher Renewable Energy Targets in Germany: How Will the Industry Benefit?

Author:
Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
“Deutschland – Einstieg in die Deindustrialisierung?” – “Germany, the beginning of deindustrialisation?” asked the German economic newspaper Handelsblatt in the context of the spike in energy prices that has put at risk thousands of companies across Germany in 2022. Whereas some sectors such as steel, glass and chemicals have been seriously hit, the manufacturing industries operating in the areas linked to the energy transition (such as renewable energies and hydrogen production) should benefit from decisions taken to reach climate neutrality. Will the German industry benefit from the ambitious commitments agreed by the new coalition? The boom and bust of the solar sector in 2011 are a reminder that a strong internal demand does not necessarily translate into strong and resilient supply chains on the national territory. In the context of generous support schemes, several companies emerged in the 2000s benefiting from the strong demand for solar panels before being overwhelmed by Asian competitors. Nowadays, more than 90% of solar panels are imported from China. The level of ambition of the Federal government for the Energiewende has dramatically increased with the new coalition elected in 2021, the share of renewables to be reached in the power mix by 2030 being set at 80% (against 47% in 2022). The German wind industry has however been affected by a slowdown of the expansion of capacities, several rounds of onshore wind and solar auctions being in 2022 undersubscribed. The added value of the Energiewende in terms of job creation has been ambivalent so far. The country’s current industrial geography might be partly reshaped with the efforts made by northern and eastern States to deploy renewables and green hydrogen at large scale. Stakes are high for southern Germany since new spatial patterns are emerging in the automotive sector too. While Chinese competition in the solar and wind manufacturing sectors is tough, the Inflation Reduction Act has reinvigorated discussions around a stronger industrial policy.
Topic:
European Union, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

34. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation

Author:
Alice Billon-Galland and Élie Tenenbaum
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The Franco-British Summit on March 10th, 2023, will mark a much-needed reset in bilateral cooperation, following years of strained relations. With a recently re-elected French president and a new British Prime minister, both sides are committed to making this summit a success and re-launching a positive agenda for bilateral cooperation. The summit, the first since Sandhurst in 2018, will focus on three key topics: migration, energy, and foreign policy. Defense cooperation will also be addressed, as it remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, though it may take a less prominent part than on previous occasions. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation Download 1.38 Mo Several concrete topics for joint work should therefore be discussed and agreed, from strategic discussions on European security frameworks to joint operational deployments and capability projects. It is crucial to ensure that the symbolic reset of the bilateral relationship at the summit leads to a realistic yet ambitious defense roadmap, with concrete commitments and deliverables. As the Franco-British Summit approaches, defense cooperation remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. As the war in Ukraine continues, it increases the rationale for resuming closer UK-France defense cooperation. Lessons needs to be drawn from the Lancaster House Treaties : overly ambitious and structuring plans are less likely to succeed than pragmatic, budget-conscious and ready-to-use projects. The need to prepare for high-intensity warfare opens new perspectives for capability development in all domains and for operational cooperation across the globe. This Briefing is part of a joint Chatham House-IFRI research project, the "Cross-Channel Strategic Dialogue", investigating prospects for UK-France defence and security cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and High Intensity Warfare
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, and France

35. Food Systems in the Pacific: Addressing Challenges in Cooperation with Europe

Author:
Celine Pajon
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
More frequent climate disasters, rising sea levels, the economic fallout of Covid-19 lockdowns, border closures, supply chain constraints, and the global impact of the war in Ukraine have aggravated the challenge of maintaining sustainable and resilient food systems for Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Food systems in PICs are of great importance due to their impact on the health and well-being of Pacific peoples, local livelihoods, and national economies. Between 50 and 70% of Pacific people depend on agriculture and fishing activities for their livelihoods. The Pacific is home to extensive crop biodiversity, and Pacific countries are developing unique value chains for markets and international supply. However, they also face unique challenges in realizing equitable benefits in the global food system. Additionally, the Pacific needs to tackle issues like malnutrition and non-communicable diseases. Urgent global and local action is needed to manage climate change and other risks and ensure resilient food systems. Europeans are also confronted with the global food crisis and are actively working with their Pacific partners to find and fund solutions to address current and future risks by investing in local sustainable food systems. This Briefing explains the complex issues at stake regarding food systems in PICs and explores ways to address these challenges, both at the local level and in cooperation with Europeans. This Briefing is based on discussions that took place during the webinar "Food Security in Times of Crisis: Connecting the Pacific and Europe," organized by the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri)'s Pacific Islands Program in partnership with the Pacific Community (SPC) on December 8, 2022. Contributions from panelists will, therefore, be highlighted.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Food, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, European Union, Oceania, and Pacific Islands

36. Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

Author:
Héloïse Fayet and Amélie Ferey
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking. In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them. The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight. The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
Topic:
War Games, Military, and Anticipation
Political Geography:
Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

37. How Sweden Can Use its EU Presidency to Build the Civilian Security Dimension of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Michal Baranowski, Mikołaj Bronert, Maximilian Kaminski, and Elene Kintsurashvili
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) lacks a security dimension and this is an urgent reform need. In particular, the EU should become the leading provider of civilian security support in the EaP countries, particularly Ukraine. But significant weaknesses in this policy field inhibit its capability to do so. Sweden’s long-term focus on the EaP, its experience in augmenting domestic cyber and hybrid resilience as well as in placing the civilian aspect at the heart of its national security, and it its leading contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions put it in a unique position to be a champion of the security dimension of the EaP during its presidency of the Council of the EU. Sweden can do so by pushing for: a EU-NATO memorandum of understanding on the EaP; the provision of a rapid financing mechanism to assist EaP countries in nonmilitary defense; a more coordinated training, planning, and implementing process for CSDP missions between EU actors and the EaP countries; a more targeted approach towards EaP countries; and prioritization of deepening of cooperation with EaP countries in the domain of hybrid threats.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Sweden, and Central Europe

38. Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price

Author:
Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer. On January 9, the UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2672 extending the provision of cross-border humanitarian aid into northwest Syria for another six months. In the immediate term, the vote is good news for Syrian civilians suffering through one of their worst energy crises since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. But the main problem persists—absent an alternative mechanism outside the Security Council, cross-border aid will remain bound to Russia’s increasing political and security demands in Syria, which are ultimately tied to the situation in Ukraine as well. Many were surprised by Moscow’s decision to approve the new resolution. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly threatened to veto previous resolutions, and the West has largely given in to its demands by steadily diluting the aid mechanism. From that perspective, this month’s vote appeared to be a welcome sign of the Biden administration’s willingness to stand its ground on Syria despite dealing with a complex Russian challenge in Ukraine. Moscow did not even resort to its frequent tactic of abstaining from the final vote in order to signal its displeasure with the mechanism.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, UN Security Council, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

39. Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges

Author:
Henry Rome
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs. On January 11, President Ebrahim Raisi submitted his budget proposal to the Majlis for the Iranian year 2023/24. Drafted amid the most severe protests the Islamic Republic has faced since its establishment in 1979, the proposal includes no economic olive branches to the people and avoids structural reforms that could help rein in inflation and fuel growth.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Budget, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

40. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:
Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean