Content Type: Policy Brief / Topic:

901. Rising to the Challenge: The case for permanent progressive policies to tackle Asia’s coronavirus and inequality crisis

Author:: Emma Seery
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Asia remains in the grip of a coronavirus crisis that is supercharging already high levels of inequality. While the richest and most privileged can protect their health and increase their wealth further, the pandemic is putting the lives and livelihoods of the region's poorest and most vulnerable people at risk. Women, poor and low-skilled workers, migrants and other marginalized groups are being hit hardest. But it is not too late to turn the tide. Governments must make this the moment to implement permanent progressive policies that put the needs of the many before the profit and extreme wealth of the few.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia

902. Protection Dilemmas Arising from the Reintegration of Former Combatants and the Impact of the Terrorist Designation

Author:: Agathe Sarfati and Phoebe Donnelly
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The concept and implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have evolved as DDR-related activities have increasingly occurred in environments where armed conflict is ongoing, no peace agreement has been signed, and armed groups designated as terrorist organizations (AGDTOs) are operating. In parallel, reintegration has increasingly been discussed in the UN counterterrorism architecture through the concept of prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration (PRR). The changing context has raised challenges related to reintegration, especially reintegration of former members of AGDTOs. This policy paper analyzes the risks faced by individuals taking part in reintegration processes and by the communities they are reintegrating into. In particular, it analyzes how the designation of an armed group as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council or by a state impacts these risks while acknowledging that these risks largely depend on the broader context. The paper examines three case studies of current reintegration processes: (1) the process for reincorporating former combatants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People’s Army (FARC-EP); (2) the defector program for former members of al-Shabaab in Somalia; and (3) the reintegration process for individuals associated with Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. The paper concludes by recommending several steps the UN could take to help ensure that reintegration processes address protection risks, especially for former members of AGDTOs: Tailor reintegration programs to the context, not to whether a group is labeled as a terrorist organization; Design reintegration programs to be gender-sensitive and human rights–compliant; Ensure that PRR and DDR programs are complementary and adopt the Integrated DDR Standards module on AGDTOs; and Keep reintegration and counterterrorism goals distinct.
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa and Colombia

903. UN, EU, and NATO Approaches to the Protection of Civilians: Policies, Implementation, and Comparative Advantages

Author:: Joachim A. Koops and Christian Patz
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The protection of civilians (POC) in armed conflict has become a core strategic objective for the United Nations system and for UN peace operations in particular. The UN, however, is not the sole actor engaged in POC. The European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), among other regional actors, have been developing their own policies and approaches to POC. While the significant overlap in these organizations’ member states and interorganizational developments create an opportunity to coordinate and synergize their POC policies, their approaches to POC differ—in some cases substantially. As the EU and NATO are both in the process of reassessing their strategic direction against the backdrop of new conflict scenarios, there is a need to reflect on the differences and similarities between these three organizations’ approaches to POC, their comparative advantages, and the future direction of the POC agenda. At a time when international peace operations and protection efforts are under intense political and operational pressure, such an understanding could also lay the foundation for more informed and effective interorganizational cooperation on POC. Toward this end, this paper examines the conceptualization of POC in the UN, the EU, and NATO, lays out the core POC policies and approaches of the three organizations and examines their approaches to implementing these policies in the field. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the UN, the EU, and NATO to strengthen POC efforts within and between the three organizations: Adapt POC to new operational realities; Revitalize discussion on POC within and between the organizations; Improve POC training, preparedness, and institutionalization; and Focus on both passive (harm mitigation) and active approaches to POC.
Topic:: NATO, United Nations, European Union, Conflict, Civilians, Protection, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

904. The UN Agenda for Protection: Policy, Strategic, and Operational Priorities

Author:: Damian Lilly
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In his 2020 Call to Action on Human Rights, UN Secretary-General António Guterres committed to developing an “Agenda for Protection.” The agenda provides an opportunity for the UN to reaffirm that the protection of crisis-affected populations is fundamental to its purpose and values. To be effective it should address the lessons learned from previous efforts to bring about a system-wide approach to protection, particularly the Human Rights up Front initiative. Critically, it should address the systemic and structural shortcomings of the UN to effectively respond to protection crises by providing strategic coherence to the fragmented ways in which the different UN entities contribute to protection. This policy paper analyzes the policy, strategic, and operational priorities for the forthcoming Agenda for Protection. It focuses on how the UN system can reform the way it addresses protection crises while remaining mindful that its role is heavily influenced by member states. It argues that without a transformative and comprehensive approach that brings together the fragmented ways the different UN entities contribute to protection, the Agenda for Protection is likely to suffer the same fate as previous unsuccessful efforts, further undermining the organization’s credibility. The paper concludes by providing several recommendations for the UN to consider as it drafts the Agenda for Protection: Establishing a clear vision statement and a commitment to protect; Setting out a common framework of protection measures to be implemented; Designating and resourcing a system-wide lead entity on protection; Outlining procedures to scale up the response in the event of a protection crisis; Developing an implementation plan and accountability framework; and Consolidating the reporting of protection results.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, Civilians, Humanitarian Response, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

905. An Unfinished Agenda: Carving Out Space for Humanitarian Action in the UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Resolutions and Related Sanctions

Author:: Agathe Sarfati
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, the UN Security Council has developed two main streams of work related to counterterrorism: the sanctions regime established by Resolution 1267 and measures under Resolution 1373. However, these resolutions and related sanctions regimes have been criticized for failing to safeguard and facilitate impartial humanitarian action. In response, the council has progressively incorporated language that better considers international humanitarian law (IHL) and humanitarian principles. Despite these efforts, humanitarian organizations have continued to criticize counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes for inhibiting humanitarian activities. This policy paper considers how the Security Council’s counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes can continue making progress to better protect humanitarian action. It begins by describing the council’s main streams of work on counterterrorism as well as their subsidiary organs. The second section discusses the impact of these counterterrorism measures on impartial humanitarian activities. The third section then reviews the incremental steps taken by the Security Council to incorporate language relevant to IHL and humanitarian affairs into these measures. The fourth section analyzes the four most recent counterterrorism-related resolutions adopted by the Security Council. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for entities both within and outside of the UN to better safeguard humanitarian action within counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes: For humanitarian organizations, relevant civil society groups and UN entities, and independent experts: Advocate to keep humanitarian action high on the Security Council agenda; Monitor the implementation of the humanitarian exception for Afghanistan; and Issue independent opinions on advisable forms of humanitarian carve-outs. For the UN Security Council and other UN member states: Reinforce implementation and monitoring of provisions in Security Council resolutions pertaining to IHL and humanitarian action; Provide adequate resources to monitor the impact of UN counterterrorism measures and related sanctions on humanitarian action; Amend language in UN counterterrorism resolutions and related sanctions regimes to facilitate humanitarian action; and Empower elected members of the Security Council to be agents of change.
Topic:: Sanctions, Counter-terrorism, UN Security Council, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Global Focus

906. Blue on Blue: Investigating Sexual Abuse of Peacekeepers

Author:: Phoebe Donnelly, Dyan Mazurana, and Evyn Papworth
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: It is commonly assumed that the main threats to uniformed peacekeepers originate from outside of peacekeeping missions. However, many women (and some men) deployed as military or police peacekeepers are subjected to sexual abuse by other members of the organizations they serve. Until now, there has been little research specifically focused on this sexual abuse by uniformed peacekeepers against their peacekeeping colleagues. This paper helps fill that gap, drawing on a survey of peacekeepers as well as data from interviews and a closed-door workshop. It presents findings related to the extent, frequency, and type of abuse peacekeepers have experienced and witnessed; the perpetrators of this abuse; the organizational cultures that enable it; and peacekeepers’ perceptions of the UN’s response. These findings reveal that while sexual abuse is a major threat to uniformed peacekeepers, especially women, the UN and troop- and police-contributing countries (T/PCCs) have not adequately responded to the issue. This lack of attention is in contrast to the relatively robust architecture for reporting on and investigating sexual exploitation and abuse of host communities in peacekeeping environments. To successfully prevent and respond to sexual abuse within peacekeeping missions as well as increase women’s meaningful participation in peace operations, the report concludes by providing several recommendations across four broad areas for the UN and T/PCCs: Transform the organizational cultures that enable sexual abuse of peacekeepers; Mandate robust training to prevent sexual abuse of peacekeepers; Require T/PCCs to address sexual abuse of peacekeepers within their contingents; and Create a robust, confidential, and victim-centric reporting and investigation infrastructure.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Sexual Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

907. Enhancing the Protection of Civilians through Conventional Arms Control

Author:: Damian Lilly and Barbara Morais Figueiredo
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Conventional arms control and disarmament efforts have historically been framed as a humanitarian cause to limit human suffering. However, activities with an arms control component have only featured to a limited extent within the protection of civilians (POC) mandates of United Nations peace operations. Both issues feature on the agenda of the UN Security Council, which mandates missions, but the linkages between the two have not been well explored at the policy, strategic, and operational levels. Produced in conjunction with the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, this brief provides an analysis of the actual, and potential, contribution of conventional arms control and related activities to POC within the context of UN peace operations—both peacekeeping operations and special political missions. There has been limited research conducted on this topic, and it has been addressed in only a cursory manner in relevant policies, guidelines, and strategies. This paper therefore attempts to demonstrate the existing linkages between these two mandated tasks, as well as to pinpoint some of the barriers and challenges to why arms control has not featured more fully within the POC efforts of missions. It then identifies relevant entry points based on concrete examples of how arms control-related activities can be better leveraged by UN peace operations to ensure the more effective protection of civilians.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civilians, UN Security Council, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

908. Gender-Responsive Leadership in UN Peace Operations: The Path to a Transformative Approach?

Author:: Sarah Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Initiatives to increase gender equality or implement the women, peace, and security agenda in peace operations routinely fail when they lack support from leadership. Gender-responsive leadership is thus essential to the UN’s efforts to promote gender equality in UN missions and the countries where these missions are deployed. While the phrase “gender-responsive leadership” is not yet widely used by the UN, its fundamental principles have been integrated across several peacekeeping priority areas and policy frameworks, including training and mentoring programs, accountability frameworks, and data collection and monitoring. Yet significant shortcomings remain. This issue brief examines the concept and practice of gender-responsive leadership and assesses its potential to contribute to UN peace operations. It begins by examining the concept of gender-responsive leadership, the approaches and strategies envisioned by policymakers, and what outcomes it can achieve. It then outlines why gender-responsive leadership is important to UN peace operations and how it could bring about new approaches and challenge barriers to gender equality. It also considers the steps the UN has taken to implement gender-responsive leadership at both the mission and headquarters levels. The paper argues that gender-responsive leadership has the potential to change gender-unequal outcomes in peacekeeping if it is supported through training, mentoring, online resources, and assessment frameworks. Ultimately, the paper recommends a more inclusive, intersectional view of gender-responsive leadership—one that pays attention to issues such as race, ability, and sexual orientation—to ensure that leaders do not operate according to homogenized or essentialized understandings of women’s experiences.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

909. Vaccine Equity in ConflictAffected Areas: The Challenges of Development, Production, Procurement, and Distribution

Author:: Katherine DeLand
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: While the wide-ranging impacts of COVID-19 are being felt in all countries and communities, the pandemic is having a disproportionately large impact on vulnerable populations, such as people living in areas affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. Vaccines hold enormous promise to mitigate these impacts, but the complications inherent to armed conflict make accessing vaccines especially challenging. Even when countries do receive vaccines, they often face challenges in rolling out vaccination programs, whether because they lack adequate capacity or because the doses are set to expire or are not acceptable to the communities set to receive them. This issue brief focuses on the challenges of equitably distributing COVID-19 vaccines to populations in conflict-affected areas. It begins by looking at general issues related to the development, approval, production, procurement, and distribution of vaccines. It then examines the particular challenges to distributing vaccines in conflict-affected areas both before and during the vaccine rollout. The report concludes with several recommendations for stakeholders and policymakers to improve the delivery of vaccines in conflict-affected areas: Redistribute global resources to increase the supply of vaccines to conflict-affected countries; Increase the transparency and predictability of global vaccine supplies; Enhance cooperation and coordination at the national and local levels to deliver vaccines to conflict-affected areas through existing humanitarian response mechanisms; and Ensure that vaccination campaigns in conflict-affected areas adhere to humanitarian principles.
Topic:: Health, Conflict, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Global Focus

910. The Impact of Women Peacekeepers on Public Support for Peacekeeping in TroopContributing Countries

Author:: Laura Huber
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: There are several common assumptions about how women peacekeepers may impact public opinion in the countries from which they deploy. Women peacekeepers may boost public support for peacekeeping by increasing the perceived legitimacy of peacekeeping missions. They may also boost public support for women’s rights by challenging norms around the roles women should perform. Finally, there is a belief that the death of women peacekeepers could decrease support for peacekeeping. Drawing on two rounds of online public surveys in India and South Africa, this issue brief tests these assumptions. It also draws on an additional survey of UN member-state representatives in New York to understand how decision makers believe the deployment of women alters public support for peacekeeping. Overall, the surveys revealed relatively high levels of support for peacekeeping in both India and South Africa. Moreover, member-state representatives in New York indicated that they not only value public opinion on peacekeeping and consider it when making deployment decisions but also believe that the deployment of women peacekeepers increases support for UN peacekeeping. However, differences between the surveys of the two countries underscore that women peacekeepers may be perceived differently by the public in different contexts and may not always increase support for peacekeeping or women’s rights. Therefore, scholars and policymakers within national governments and the UN should consider how the deployment of women may interact with other social, cultural, and political norms and practices to moderate how the public will perceive and react to women peacekeepers.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Public Opinion, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, India, and South Africa

911. Expanding Conceptions of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence among Military Peacekeepers

Author:: Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: UN peacekeeping missions tend to frame conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) narrowly both in terms of who its victims are and who is best placed to address it. The victims of CRSV are usually assumed to be women and girls, and there is often an expectation that women peacekeepers will be better able to address CRSV than men. These assumptions reflect the frequent conflation of CRSV with “violence against women and girls,” as well as with “sexual and gender-based violence.” They also reflect the broader conflation of “women” and “gender” throughout UN policy documents and training resources for military peacekeepers. This issue brief explores how the UN system currently understands CRSV and SGBV, how this understanding affects the responsibilities, roles, and perceptions of military peacekeepers, and how UN policies—especially those focused on military women’s participation in peacekeeping—might be more inclusive. It draws on desk research as well as interviews with practitioners, UN personnel, and academic gender experts, as well as insights shared in several closed-door, expert-level workshops. The paper concludes that the current narrow understanding of CRSV harms victims of sexual violence who are not women and girls, including men and boys as well as sexual and gender minorities. Beyond the victims, narrow understandings of CRSV also harm women peacekeepers. Those pushing to increase the number of uniformed women peacekeepers often emphasize their added value in preventing and responding to CRSV. This assumption can perpetuate the idea that women peacekeepers’ primary added value is their gender identity and saddles them with additional responsibilities, often without adequate training, resources, or authority.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Conflict, Sexual Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

912. Decarbonisation of the energy system

Author:: Georg Zachmann, Alexander Roth, Ben McWilliams, Franziska Holz, Robin Sogalla, Frank Meissner, and Claudia Kemfert
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Three quarters of the European Union’s greenhouse gas emissions stem from burning coal, oil and natural gas to produce energy services, including heating for buildings, transportation and operation of machinery. The transition to climate neutrality means these services must be provided without associated emissions. It is not possible today to determine tomorrow’s optimal clean energy system, largely because the cost, limitations and capability developments of competing technologies cannot be predicted. Energy systems with widely diverging shares of ‘green fuels’, in the form of electricity, hydrogen and synthetic hydrocarbons, remain conceivable. We find the overall cost of these systems to be of the same order of magnitude, but they involve larger investments at different stages of value chains. A large share of synthetic hydrocarbons would require more investment outside the EU, but less in domestic infrastructure and demand-side appliances, while electrification requires large investment in domestic infrastructure and appliances. Current projections show an overall cost advantage for direct electrification, but projections will evolve and critical players may push hard for alternative fuels. Policy will thus play a major role in shaping this balance. Political decisions should, first, push out carbon-emitting technology, primarily through carbon pricing. The more credible and predictable this strategy is over the coming decades, the smoother will be both divestment from brown technologies and investment in green technologies. Second, policy needs to help ensure that enough climate-neutral alternatives are available in time. Clear public support should be given to three system decisions about which we are sufficiently confident: the massive roll-out of renewable electricity generation; the electrification of significant shares of final energy consumption; and rapid phase-out of coal from electricity generation. For energy services where no dominant system has yet emerged, policy should forcefully explore different solutions by supporting technological and regulatory experimentation. Given the size and urgency of the transition, the current knowledge infrastructure in Europe is insufficient. Data on the current and projected state of the energy system remains inconsistent, either published in different places or not at all. This impedes the societal discussion. The transition to climate neutrality in Europe and elsewhere will be unnecessarily expensive without a knowledge infrastructure that allows society to learn which technologies, systems, and polices work best under which circumstances.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

913. Does Europe need a Health Union?

Author:: Anne Bucher
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Health outcomes in the European Union are good by international standards, even compared to other developed economies, and improved continuously before COVID-19. This reflects the alignment of the objectives of improving health and wellbeing with the overall socio-economic objective of prosperity, and suggests that a radical overhaul of EU health policy is not needed. However, the EU could benefit from closer integration in some areas and be more effective in delivering a high level of health protection. Action could be taken in the following areas: The European Commission’s November 2020 Health Union package to increase resilience to cross-border health threats is ambitious, in particular with the establishment of the Health Emergency Response Authority, which extends the scope of cooperation in health emergencies. The EU should pursue further the Health Union approach to address cross-border externalities and enhance health security. It could, for instance, do more to tackle anti-microbial resistance, or define minimum requirements for the resilience of health systems. For non-communicable diseases, the EU should tap the economies of scale of research and knowledge organised at EU level, and put in place systems for the surveillance of non-communicable diseases and consolidation of scientific knowledge. This could be achieved through an extension to non-communicable diseases of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control mandate. The ‘Health in all Policies’ principle is a key channel to deliver good health outcomes at EU level. EU scientific agencies provide health risk assessments in a number of areas, but the EU should better organise, coordinate and consolidate the scientific knowledge that underpins health-protection measures in sectoral legislation, and should more systematically apply better regulation rules to the health impacts of EU policies. The EU should support the digital transformation of health systems and set high targets for the European Health Data Space initiative, which is a critical infrastructure for the future of health research, regulation and policymaking. Several non-health EU policy objectives (cohesion policies, European Pillar of Social rights, economic governance) are linked to the performance of health systems. A common understanding on how to measure this performance would inform these policies in a consistent way. Moreover favourable health outcomes in the EU have not reduced health inequalities, which remain high between and within EU countries. Monitoring of health inequalities, including those related to access to and quality of healthcare, should be improved as an initial step.
Topic:: Health, European Union, Regional Integration, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

914. The failure of global public health governance: a forensic analysis

Author:: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Anne Bucher, and George Papaconstantinou
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: COVID-19 has underlined that in a context of recurring pandemics, public health is a basic global public good, the provision of which presupposes effective and timely collective action at global level. It has exposed the limitations of the prevailing framework. This Policy Contribution positions global public health governance in the wider debate on the reform of international governance arrangements. It distinguishes between the ‘before’ phase of pandemic preparedness, characterised by ‘denial and neglect’; the first phase (‘addressing the outbreak’), with scientific cooperation and an uncoordinated response to the outbreak; the second phase (‘responding and containing’), with a scaling up of testing, but also competition for scarce equipment and slow development of tests; the third ‘protecting’ phase, with the exceptional development of new vaccines but also rival vaccine diplomacy; and the final ‘exit’ phase, with ramping up of vaccine distribution, but also a glaring failure to vaccinate poor countries. In the evolution of global governance arrangements in different policy areas, six ingredients have been important, and two were clearly present in public health: joint identification of the problem, and shared expertise, as demonstrated especially in the scientific and institutional response. This was much less the case with two others: common action principles, and transparent reporting mechanisms. Finally, there have been significant problems with the last two ingredients: there is no accepted outcome-evaluation process to assess results and adapt instruments, while trust issues continue to hamper the work of the World Health Organisation. The decision to work towards a new pandemic treaty should be assessed against the reform agenda of global health security governance. Four proposals can be made. The WHO should be turned it into a strong and independent standard-setting and surveillance authority for preparedness, prevention, and response, while existing institutions and initiatives should be streamlined and consolidated to better provide essential medical supplies globally. Meanwhile, a G20-type body should be established to provide leadership and ensure a whole-of-government approach that repositions global health governance in the world order and puts it on par with economic interdependence or financial stability in terms of governance, institutional backing and resources. Adequate funding should be provided through a self-standing fund to address the shortfalls COVID-19 has revealed in preparedness of national health systems, detection and containment, and shortages and misallocations of critical medical supplies.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, COVID-19, and Forensic Science
Political Geography:: Global Focus

915. Is the post-war trading system ending?

Author:: Uri Dadush
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The world trading system is reeling from the trade war between China and the United States, the disabling of the World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Understanding and repeated rule-breaking by WTO members. This does not mean the end of the post-war system, but it is being transformed into a more complex, politicised and contentious set of trade relationships. The new framework is likely to evolve around a WTO in maintenance mode with weak and largely unenforceable rules, and three blocs built by regional hegemons. Trade within the blocs will be relatively free and predictable, but the blocs are far from cohesive, contributing to the politicisation of the system. Trade relations between the blocs, especially among the regional hegemons, will be tense and potentially unstable. Countries across the world need to rethink their trade and foreign policies to reflect the new reality. They need to continue to lend support to the WTO but also to accelerate work on regional and bilateral deals, while entering plurilateral agreements on specific issues – within the WTO if possible, or outside it if not. Beyond these general prescriptions, the priorities of different economies vary greatly. The trade hegemons of China, the European Union and the US face vastly different challenges. Middle powers on the periphery of the regional blocs, or outside them, such as Brazil, India and the United Kingdom, face an especially arduous struggle to adjust to a less predictable system. Small nations will be forced into asymmetrical deals with the hegemons or will play them off against each other, adding to the politicisation of trade relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

916. Better pensions for the European Union’s self-employed

Author:: Rebecca Christie, Monika Grzegorczyk, and Diane Mulcahy
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Self-employed workers are taking on a larger role in the European economy, particularly workers who operate as independent contractors rather than as small-business owners with their own workforce. Becoming self-employed offers flexibility and entrepreneurial potential, but can limit access to state-sponsored pension schemes. We assess the current state of pension policy across the European Union and take a more detailed look at five countries to see how independent workers are treated compared with their traditionally employed counterparts. We consider how policymakers might adjust or even overhaul their pension offerings to improve opportunities for the self-employed, while being mindful of the broader policy context in areas like innovation and overall tax burdens. In assessing policy options, it is useful to determine whether government, companies or individuals will be primarily responsible for paying for better pensions, and we structure our suggestions accordingly. Governments can make programmes more widely available, more consistent for all types of work and easier to understand and take part in. Companies can be encouraged to make pension contributions for all their workers, not just those they hire full-time. Individuals can be encouraged to set aside more for retirement with tax incentives, benefits flexibility and other policy measures. Access to pensions for low-income, more vulnerable self-employed workers should be considered separately from access for higher-paid workers. The current system does not facilitate this and indeed inhibits it in jurisdictions where a minimum income is required to join self-employment pension schemes.
Topic:: Labor Issues, European Union, Economy, and Self-Employment
Political Geography:: Europe

917. The Development Response to Kleptocracy and Strategic Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: Kleptocracies do not stop at their own borders. The same actors, networks, tactics, and resources that they wield to prevent democracy and rule of law from sprouting at home are also repurposed for foreign aggression. While cronies, oligarchs, and lesser operatives do get rich in the process, “strategic corruption” is chiefly a geopolitical weapon directed by autocratic regimes to secretly undermine the sovereignty of other countries. The three most common manifestations of strategic corruption vary on a spectrum of how directly and boldly they violate sovereignty and subvert democratic processes. Starting with the most indirect and chronic form of strategic corruption, Russia and China invest “corrosive capital” throughout Eastern Europe and the Belt and Road Initiative, respectively. They use corrupt patronage networks and opaque business dealings to spread their kleptocratic model of authoritarian governance. Those corrupt investments are usually also supported by tactics of “malign influence,” like when a minister or politician receives bribes or economic threats until they censor their political speech, advance a foreign policy initiative, or otherwise subordinate the legitimate sovereign interests entrusted to them by their own people in favor of the interests of a foreign power. Finally, the most direct and acute form of strategic corruption involves financial methods of election interference and other tactics of corrupting democratic processes. Often funded with the proceeds of kleptocracy, election interference through covert political financing has become the bailiwick of Kremlin-directed oligarchs. Separate from those three manifestations of strategic corruption—corrosive capital, malign influence, and election interference—China and Russia try to hide their dirty money and malign activities by pressuring foreign journalists into silence through surveillance, thuggery, and lawsuits. Western foreign assistance has not yet offered a coherent response to kleptocracy and strategic corruption, but that is starting to change under the Biden administration. Building resilience to this transnational threat through foreign aid will require four new approaches that are more political and coordinated than traditional development assistance. First, aid should be informed by local political analysis. More important and less used than technical reviews of laws and institutions, political analysis should center anti-corruption efforts around known corrupt activity. That starts by asking sensitive questions about which individuals, institutions, and sectors are the most corrupt, how extensively their networks of wealth and power span, and which corrupt figures must be held accountable to thoroughly purge grand corruption. Second, aid should be responsive to political shifts, scaling up and down, respectively, in response to windows of opportunity for anti-corruption reform and times of backsliding toward kleptocracy. Third, aid responses to kleptocracy should be coordinated at the regional and global levels, similarly to how grand corruption operates across borders through transnational networks of actors and tools. Fourth, anti-corruption programming should be deeply integrated across the traditional sectors of assistance, particularly health, infrastructure, energy, climate, and security. Some of these new approaches are already being prioritized under the Biden administration’s new strategy to combat corruption, particularly coordinating across tools and sectors to fight transnational corruption. But operationalizing this mission will be no small endeavor, given that anti-corruption assistance is delivered through a notoriously technocratic and apolitical bureaucracy built during the Cold War to aid socioeconomic development in individual countries steadily over decades. But getting this right offers the key to defending democracies from autocratic aggression, showing how democracy can deliver, and even helping bring foreign policy and domestic politics into alignment for the first time in a generation.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Finance, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

918. Beating burnout: identifying bad jobs and improving job quality

Author:: Mia Hoffmann and Laura Nurski
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: While European-wide information on burnout is scarce, national statistics show that stress-related absenteeism is on the rise, generating significant costs for firms and welfare states, while reducing worker wellbeing. Although manifested at the individual level, burnout is an occupational phenomenon, predicted most clearly by imbalances in job content (high workloads and low autonomy) and the social environment at work – two under-explored aspects of job quality. While the economy and society as a whole would benefit from a healthier workforce, market failures drive job quality below an optimal level, necessitating attention from policymakers. Measuring and intervening in job content is not straightforward, however, and has not been a main policy domain in Europe. Policy frameworks and interventions therefore tend to focus on other areas of job quality, such as the physical and contractual working conditions. To manage the burnout epidemic and mitigate the impact of the changing nature of work, job-quality policy needs to focus on the job-content aspects as well. Wellbeing outcomes of low job quality, such as burnout, need to be monitored at European level and can serve to evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions in job quality.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Economic Growth, Inclusion, Workforce, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Europe

919. COVID-19 and the shift to remote work

Author:: Scott Marcus
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: COVID-19 has accelerated the shift to remote work. Enabling knowledge workers to do their jobs from home or elsewhere brings benefits by increasing labour participation, avoiding unproductive commuting time (thus reducing the carbon footprint), and reducing the gender gap by enabling single parents or partners with domestic-care responsibilities to work. Not all jobs are suitable for remote work, but far more remote work is feasible than was typical prior to the pandemic. The post-pandemic new normal is sure to differ both from the pre-pandemic normal and from current arrangements. Hybrid arrangements in which part of the week is spent at the office, and part at home, are likely to become the norm. Employers, workers, educators, trade unions and governments will need to adapt to the new normal. For employers and managers, the change emphasises the need to manage based on results rather than hours worked, and likely implies many changes in how they manage their employees. Workers will need to be flexible in order to capitalise on the new opportunities in the evolving world of work, and to ensure they have suitable skills for remote work. Educators will need to further emphasise digital skills, and to accelerate the shift from traditional education to lifelong learning. Trade unions will need to re-think how they recruit workers who do not see each other every day, and how they can respond to evolving social protection needs. Policymakers will need to deal with distributional effects driven by the shift to remote work, to protect the work-life balance that remote work potentially erodes, and to seek to ensure that the shift to remote work does not erode social protection.
Topic:: Employment, Work Culture, COVID-19, and Remote Work
Political Geography:: Global Focus

920. How to make the EU Energy Platform an effective emergency tool

Author:: Walter Boltz, Klaus-Dieter Borchardt, and Thierry Deschuyteneer
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Uncertainty about the supply of Russian natural gas is causing extremely high and volatile European gas and electricity prices. European Union countries may struggle to import sufficient volumes of natural gas at reasonable prices. During the summer, the imperatives are to fill storage sites sufficiently in a coordinated manner and to organise sufficient import volumes to replace a substantial share of gas that might no longer come from Russia. Coordination is essential to ensure that disruptions during difficult winter months do not lead to a break-up of the EU internal gas market with potentially serious political repercussions. One part of the EU response is establishment of an EU Energy Platform for the purchase of gas, LNG and hydrogen. This aims to pool demand to leverage the bloc’s economic clout, international outreach to reliable partners and efficient use of existing infrastructure. EU leaders have backed the plan but it has not yet been translated into a feasible scheme. The platform should be developed into an effective emergency tool to safeguard gas supply in case Russian flows stop. We detail two complementary proposals to achieve this. First, there should be EU-wide auctioning of remuneration for filling storage sites in specific regions. Companies would remain responsible for all stages of the value chain, benefitting from remuneration and in return offering the market operator some control over how this gas is released during winter months. Second, EU demand for additional LNG quantities, and the sourcing of this on international markets, should be coordinated through a platform, creating a transparent market for these volumes. These mechanisms would resolve the prevention paradox and prevent free-riding. If EU countries buy gas jointly, they will find it much easier to let markets allocate scarce volumes across borders in case of a complete stop to Russian supplies. . This would reduce the risk of energy market fragmentation, as well as the subsequent energy security, economic and political impacts of a shock that would hit member states very differently.
Topic:: Oil, European Union, Gas, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

921. An analysis of central bank decision-making

Author:: Maria Demertzis, Catarina Martina, and Nicola Viegi
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The process by which central banks take decisions has evolved over the years, with a tendency towards independence and decisions taken by committees rather than individuals. Monetary policy committees can be set up formally in different ways, traditionally falling into one of two categories: individualistic or collegial. Individualistic committees reach decisions by voting and publish the votes of each of their members, while in collegial committees, decisions are typically reached collectively. The European Central Bank is an example of the latter, while the Bank of England follows an individualistic approach. Focusing on decision-making, a relevant question is whether the formal set-up in practice leads to different ways of deliberating and reaching monetary policy decisions. We look at decisions taken by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank over more than 20 years to evaluate how different the decision-making process is in these three central banks. The results indicate that, irrespective of the committee type, their approach to consensus building when they take decisions is similar. The three central banks seem to value reaching decisions by unanimity, both on interest rates – the prime monetary policy instrument by definition – and on asset purchases. Decisions to tighten monetary policy are more often taken unanimously than decisions to ease monetary policy. When maintaining policy unchanged, decisions are usually backed by most committee members.
Topic:: Federal Reserve, Finance, Central Bank, European Central Bank, Decision-Making, and Bank of England
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

922. Legal options for a green golden rule in the European Union’s fiscal framework

Author:: Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Achieving the European Union’s climate goals and decoupling from Russian energy will require a massive increase in green public spending, which will be difficult when EU fiscal rules requiring fiscal consolidation are reinstated. The two major proposals to address the conflicting goals of fiscal consolidation and increased green public investment needs are a possible new European climate investment fund and a green golden rule. The latter would exclude any increase in net green public investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure compliance with fiscal rules, for countries with sound public finances. An EU climate fund and a well-designed green golden rule would be equivalent in terms of project selection, implementation and control procedures. If the climate fund does not involve redistribution across member states, then the treatment of related spending and consequent borrowing in national fiscal indicators and in the EU’s fiscal framework would be the same. New regulations would be needed to set up both the climate fund and the green golden rule. Special legislation would be needed to exempt the subsequent climate expenditures from EU fiscal rules in both cases. A climate fund financed by EU borrowing with redistributive effects across countries would likely result in the exclusion of the fund’s activities from national fiscal indicators and EU fiscal rules without any legislative changes. There are question marks about the desirability and political feasibility of redistribution across the EU for climate purposes. An EU climate fund, irrespective of whether or not it involves redistribution, would mainly benefit southern and eastern EU countries. An instrument is needed to foster green public investment in western and northern EU countries as well. The green golden rule would be such an instrument. While there are some pragmatic options to mimic a green golden rule in the current EU fiscal framework, such as amending the so-called ‘investment clause’ and adjusting the medium-term objective for the structural balance, ultimately, elements of the 2011 Six-Pack legislation and the 2012 Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance should be revised to include a green golden rules.
Topic:: Climate Change, Law, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

923. Competition and Content Moderation

Author:: Jennifer Huddleston
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act has played a pivotal role in fostering the internet ecosystem we have today. Although the law applies to millions of websites of all sizes, critics often misconstrue it as a special exemption for “big tech” companies, shielding them from legal scrutiny; however, platforms large and small are liable for all content they create or develop, even if only in part. Yet many lawmakers see Section 230 as a stumbling block impeding fairness and accountability online. Their arguments fail to consider the expansive impact that Section 230 has had in fostering and preserving a competitive online marketplace over the past 25 years. Its protections for both platforms and users have proven essential to increasing competition.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Social Media, Legislation, Content Moderation, and Competition
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

924. The National Flood Insurance Program: Solving Congress’s Samaritan’s Dilemma

Author:: Peter Van Doren
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Who should pay for the damages caused by natural disaster? The American ethos has long called on personal responsibility and private charity, rather than broad public aid, to secure people’s welfare. Although public emergency services play a vital role during and immediately after a catastrophe, this ethos looks to private insurance and disaster‐oriented organizations, such as the Red Cross, to be the main modes of recovery from a flood or storm, as well as prior care in siting and constructing buildings to blunt the effects of wind and rain.
Topic:: Government, Natural Disasters, Public Policy, and Insurance
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

925. Universal Preschool: Lawmakers Should Approach with Caution

Author:: Colleen Hroncich
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Children are not widgets. What works well for one may not work for another. That is why education is not a one‐size‐fits‐all endeavor. When looking at preschool or K–12 education, having a diversity of options is essential.
Topic:: Education, Children, Legislation, Preschool, and Schools
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

926. The (Updated) Case for Free Trade

Author:: Scott Lincicome and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The long‐standing bipartisan consensus in favor of free trade in the United States has unraveled as the nation’s commitment to the multilateral trading system is increasingly subordinated to inward‐looking ideological priorities. Like all forms of market competition, trade can be disruptive for some companies and workers, and various trade agreements may require updating to address both an increasingly authoritarian China and the 21st‐century global economy. Nevertheless, both the seen and unseen economic benefits that free trade has delivered to countless individuals, businesses, and communities in America are undeniable and irreplaceable. Furthermore, the lone alternative to free trade, protectionism, has repeatedly proven to impose high costs for minimal benefits. In short, the case for free trade is an economic no‐brainer.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Economy, Free Trade, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

927. Biden and Trade at Year One: The Reign of Polite Protectionism

Author:: James Bacchus
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: As a presidential candidate, Joe Biden promised a change from the go‐it‐alone, my‐way‐or‐the‐highway approach to trade policy of Donald Trump. Disappointingly, during the first year of his presidency, Biden has instead largely embraced the failed Trump policy of unilateralism and protectionism in trade. He and his administration have done so politely, without Trump’s bluster and bombast. Yet, the results have been mostly the same: a turn toward more trade protection and managed trade, toward a proposed industrial policy that would add more restrictions on trade, and toward a destructive unilateralism that threatens to continue undermining the multilateral trading system overseen by the World Trade Organization. If Biden continues to pursue this misguided trade policy, American recovery and prosperity are at risk. There is still time—at least three years—for him to end this reign of polite protectionism by framing and pursuing a new trade policy that will benefit all Americans: a policy that will achieve more trade liberalization, stop managed trade, halt trade‐restrictive industrial policy, renew trade multilateralism, and give restored and unflinching support to the international rule of law in trade.
Topic:: Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

928. False Alarm over the Retreat of the Himalayan Glaciers

Author:: Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar and Vijay K. Raina
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Many activists and journalists warn that rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers due to global warming will have catastrophic consequences. The glaciers have been melting since the end of the last ice age 11,700 years ago, but the melting has not worsened recently. Satellite studies suggest that the vast majority of glaciers in the Himalayas are stable, a minority are shrinking, and a few are advancing. The retreat of the Gangotri Glacier, the source of the Ganges River, has decelerated in recent decades to 10 meters (33 feet) per year, at which rate it will last 3,000 years.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Glaciers
Political Geography:: Himalayas

929. Unfair Trade or Unfair Protection? The Evolution and Abuse of Section 301

Author:: Scott Lincicome, Inu Manak, and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 gives the U.S. trade representative (USTR) broad authority to investigate “unfair” foreign trade policies allegedly harming American companies and to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions to achieve the removal of those policies. The statute was a common tool of U.S. trade policy from the 1980s to the 1990s, authorizing the USTR to conduct almost 100 different investigations during that period. Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) was established in 1995, however, the USTR has used Section 301 infrequently and almost exclusively to initiate or implement WTO dispute settlement actions—actions that, per WTO rules, were supposed to supplant the kinds of unilateral trade actions once applied under the law. The Trump administration departed from this long‐standing U.S. practice and took advantage of Section 301’s flaws to circumvent the WTO and enact unilateral tariffs against multiple U.S. trading partners, imposing significant economic and geopolitical costs along the way. This paper examines the Trump administration’s actions in historical context, evaluates how the law was stretched beyond its intended purpose in direct contravention of the United States’ WTO obligations, and offers practical reforms to prevent future abuse.
Topic:: Economics, Legislation, Trade, Protectionism, and WTO
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

930. Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality

Author:: Alina Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, Moritz Schularick, and Paul Wachtel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The racial tensions that spread across the United States in 2020 have caught the attention of monetary policymakers and focused concern on the size and persistence of the gap between both the income and wealth of black and white households. There is widespread recognition that despite some decline in overt labor market discrimination, gains in educational opportunities, and income growth of black households since the onset of the civil rights movement, the gaps persist and have even grown larger by some measures. According to the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the median wealth of a white household was $184,390, compared with only $20,730 for the median black household. The typical black household owns only about 11 percent of the wealth of the typical white household. The income gap is smaller but still large; the median income of black households ($38,688) is 58 percent of the median income of white households ($67,196).
Topic:: Race, Monetary Policy, Inequality, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

931. Opening Up Military Innovation: Effects of Bottom‐Up Reforms to U.S. Defense Research

Author:: Sabrina Howell, Jason Rathje, John Van Reenen, and Jun Wong
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The U.S. economy’s productivity growth has slowed down in recent decades. This slowdown appears due in part to declining innovation, especially among high‐growth new firms, making the design of innovation incentives particularly important. One overlooked but crucial decision a government or private‐sector research funder must consider is whether to take a centralized top‐down approach, tightly specifying the desired innovation, or a more open bottom‐up approach, giving more latitude to firms to define their research proposals. The bottom‐up approach may be useful if the research funder is uncertain about what opportunities exist. We compare these two strategies by studying a major reform to the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program at the U.S. Air Force.
Topic:: Reform, Economy, Research, Innovation, Defense Industry, and Military
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

932. The Effect of Tax Avoidance Crackdown on Corporate Innovation

Author:: Qin Li, Mark (Shuai) Ma, and Terry Shevlin
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The past three decades have witnessed significant increases in corporate tax avoidance at both the state and federal levels. U.S. firms utilize one of the most important tax avoidance strategies, which involves extensively using intangible assets to shift taxable income from high‐tax areas to low‐tax areas to reduce income taxes. To combat such income‐shifting behavior and crack down on tax avoidance, more than 20 U.S. state governments have adopted addback statutes that specifically target tax‐motivated income‐shifting transactions that use intangibles. These statutes require firms within the adopting state to add back intangible‐related expenses paid to related parties in other states to their state taxable income. For example, Connecticut adopted an addback statute in 1999. That means if a firm’s subsidiary in Connecticut pays royalty fees for using patents held by a subsidiary in another state that does not tax intangible income, the firm needs to add the royalty fees to the taxable income reported in Connecticut. Thus, these provisions are expected to effectively limit firms’ ability to avoid paying state income taxes by preventing them from using intangible assets to shift income across states. Different state governments adopted the addback statutes at different times, providing a powerful setting for examining the economic consequence of this tax policy.
Topic:: Economic Policy, Innovation, Corporations, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

933. When Interventions Fail: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Latin America

Author:: Leticia Abad and Noel Maurer
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In the middle of 2021, despite two decades of effort, the Afghan government collapsed in just nine days. The United States failed to create a state with the capacity to control its own armed forces or local officials. As early as 2009, eight years into the intervention, Ambassador Karl Eikenberry had already noted that the Afghan government could not carry out most state functions and that its leadership showed little interest in trying. U.S. civilians and soldiers tried to fill the gap.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, State Building, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Latin America, and United States of America

934. When Is Tinkering with Safety Net Programs Harmful to Beneficiaries?

Author:: Jeffrey Clemens and Michael J. Wither
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The U.S. safety net has many moving parts. Redistributive transfers are made in cash and in kind, often come through regulation, and are implemented by multiple levels of government. Arrangements related to health care and health insurance are particularly complicated, as low‐income households must navigate eligibility for free care, Medicaid, subsidized coverage, and employer‐provided coverage.
Topic:: Government, Economic Policy, Labor Market, and Safety Net
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

935. Real Effects of Climate Policy: Financial Constraints and Spillovers

Author:: Söhnke M. Bartram
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Climate change is among the most intensely debated socioeconomic issues of current times. As a response to potential catastrophic risks from climate change, governments around the world are pushing for various regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is far from a consensus on optimal policy approaches, and as a result, climate policies are highly fragmented across the jurisdictions in which they are designed and implemented. More importantly, it is unknown whether such localized yet uncoordinated policies are able to internalize potential externalities that may impede efforts to address climate change as a global phenomenon or simply distort allocations in the economy. For example, at the beginning of 2013, California became the first and only state to put a comprehensive mandatory carbon regulation in place in the form of a cap‐and‐trade system that applies universally to all industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Exploiting the introduction of the California cap‐and‐trade rule, we investigate the internal resource‐allocation responses by firms and the real but unintended spillover effects of localized climate policies that arise from the importance of financial constraints. Our study analyzes the interplay between climate policy and firm behavior, and it informs policymakers regarding the effectiveness of climate regulation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Regulation, Economy, Business, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

936. Slippery Fish: Enforcing Regulation under Subversive Adaptation

Author:: Andres Gonzalez-Lira
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Correcting market failures and improving economic efficiency often require curbing undesirable behaviors of market agents who act to maximize their private benefits. Examples include actions that affect ecosystems, such as deforestation, pollution, and overexploitation of natural resources; actions that affect community health, such as drunk driving and open defecation; or actions that undermine government performance, such as corruption and tax evasion. Enacting and enforcing regulations is the most direct strategy to deter such behaviors. Implementing this strategy requires strong institutions to enforce laws, plus sophisticated policing to track agents’ reactions to enforcement so that rules are robust enough to curb the undesirable behavior even when regulated agents try to game the new system.
Topic:: Environment, Government, Markets, Regulation, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

937. Policy Experimentation in China: The Political Economy of Policy Learning

Author:: Shaoda Wang and David Y. Yang
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Determining what policies to implement and how to implement them is an essential government task. Policy learning is challenging, as policy effectiveness often hinges on the nature of the policy, its implementation, the degree that it is tailored to local conditions, and the efforts and incentives of local politicians to make the policy work.
Topic:: Political Economy, Politics, Policy Implementation, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

938. The Regulatory Costs of Being Public

Author:: Michael Ewens, Kairong Xiao, and Ting Xu
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: An important explanation for the significant decline in the number of publicly listed companies in the United States is the increased burden of disclosure and governance regulations. Indeed, practitioners often point to heightened regulatory costs as the culprit of the disappearing public firms, while major deregulations such as the 2012 Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act were directly motivated by perceived costs of being public. Thus, understanding the role of regulations in the cost of being public and the decline in the number of public firms can address concerns about possible capital market dysfunction.
Topic:: Markets, Governance, Regulation, and Business
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

939. Evidence of the Unintended Labor Scheduling Implications of the Minimum Wage

Author:: Qiuping Yu, Shawn Mankad, and Masha Shunko
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The effect of the minimum wage has been an important topic of debate for decades. For many years, low‐wage laborers, especially in the food service and retail sectors in the United States, have been advocating an increase in the minimum wage to $15. Intending to increase worker welfare, many states (e.g., California and New York) and municipalities (San Francisco, Seattle, and New York City) have responded by raising their minimum wages.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economic Policy, and Minimum Wage
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

940. Who Pays Sin Taxes? Understanding the Overlapping Burdens of Corrective Taxes

Author:: Christopher Conlon, Nirupama Rao, and Yinan Wang
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: “Sin taxes”—or excise taxes on particular goods that society deems harmful—are popular in the United States. Federal, state, and local governments levy taxes on alcohol and tobacco with the dual and sometimes conflicting goals of curbing consumption and raising revenue. For many of these products, taxes represent a large share of the overall price. In New York City, a 1.75L bottle of vodka might sell for as little as $11.99 of which $7.97 is tax; and a $13.00 pack of cigarettes includes $6.86 in taxes.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

941. The Welfare Effects of Time Reallocation: Evidence from Daylight Saving Time

Author:: Joan Costa-i-Font, Sarah Fleche, and Ricardo Pagan
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: More than 70 countries around the world currently observe daylight saving time (DST) to reduce energy demand. However, recent studies have shown that DST does not save energy and may actually increase electricity consumption. Furthermore, opponents of DST argue that even a one‐hour time change can have long‐term consequences for individuals. DST transition has been linked to increased risks of car accidents, heart attacks, and depressive symptoms in studies. According to our findings, the spring DST transition has a negative impact on individuals’ welfare, specifically a decrease in life satisfaction. Investigating a broad range of outcomes, we show that this decline in life satisfaction can be explained by a decrease in sleep following the transition and an increase in time pressure, which significantly affect individuals’ physical and emotional health in subsequent days.
Topic:: Economic Policy, Time, Well-Being, and Daylight Saving Time
Political Geography:: Global Focus

942. The State of the Creator Economy – Assessing the economic, societal, and cultural impact of YouTube in the US in 2021

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This study presents an updated assessment of YouTube’s contribution to US GDP and employment, and its broader impact on society and culture.
Topic:: Economics, Mass Media, Employment, Social Media, and YouTube
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

943. Youth Inclusion in Transitional Justice Policy in Africa: Youth Contribute to Shaping the Way Forward

Author:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Including youth in the design and implementation of transitional justice is now being recognized as a key priority that has been long neglected. Such inclusion and participation would strengthen the value of transitional justice initiatives for society and make them more responsive to youth priorities and perspectives. This policy brief draws on the voices of youth in four African countries to guide the debate about how youth can be involved in transitional justice policy development and provide recommendations on taking this forward.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Youth, Violence, Participation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa

944. Reparations for Victims of the Marikana Masssacre

Author:: Hugo van der Merwe, Jordi Vives-Gabriel, and Malose Langa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents a summary assessment of the progress made in providing redress for victims of the Marikana Massacre,1 when 34 striking miners were killed by the South African Police Service (SAPS) in 2012 and ten people were killed in the conflict that led up to it. In the ten years since the massacre, there has been meagre progress in addressing its consequences. Direct victims and their relatives have not received full reparations, the community of Marikana remains underdeveloped and deeply divided, and the apartheid legacy of the mining sector in South Africa remains an unresolved wound in the national psyche. An integrated approach is required to address both the systemic injustices and the specific legacies of the Marikana Massacre, while being clear about the specific responsibilities of all the stakeholders. This policy brief spells out key facts about the events, outlines what progress that has been made in the last ten years in seeking truth, justice and reconciliation, and spells out recommendations for state, corporate and civil society actors on the way forward.
Topic:: Torture, Criminal Justice, State Violence, Police, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

945. China: An Economic and Political Outlook for 2022

Author:: Kevin Rudd
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: In recent years, Xi Jinping has taken China to the “left” politically and economically, but to the “right” with his deeply nationalist narratives at home and a more assertive foreign and security policy abroad. More recently, this has contributed to a slowdown in the Chinese economy and an increase in the level of political and policy reaction against Xi’s anti-market measures. Now, with last month’s Central Economic Work Conference, the Communist Party appears to have now acknowledged a number of Xi’s measures have indeed gone too far, especially as Xi himself seeks to maximize economic stability ahead of his bid for reappointment to another term in office at the 20th Party Congress this November. But whether these corrective measures will be enough to restore economic growth in the short term given the Chinese private sector is now “once bitten, twice shy” is another question altogether. In China: An Economic and Political Outlook for 2022 – Domestic Political Reaction to China’s Economic Slowdown ASPI President and CEO Kevin Rudd tackles these questions and provides an analysis of how China’s economic challenges are likely to shape its politics and policies in the year ahead.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

946. Raising the Curtain on China’s 20th Party Congress: Mechanics, Rules, “Norms,” and the Realities of Power

Author:: Christopher K Johnson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is preparing to convene its 20th Party Congress in late 2022, and the party apparatus is already in full swing making the necessary arrangements for the political conclave, held every five years. President and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping had hoped to tread an easy path toward an atypical third term in power, but unexpected events at home and abroad have complicated that trajectory. Xi would like the congress to mark the beginning of what could be a sustained period of strongman rule, making it one of the most consequential party gatherings in decades: Xi has spent his current term laying the groundwork for a major win at the 20th Party Congress. The regime’s key power centers are more beholden to him personally than they were five years ago, and Xi has orchestrated a methodical campaign of highly personalized aggrandization of his position within the leadership by garnering progressively more grandiose ideological laureates, making Xi and his policies very difficult to challenge. Xi’s third-term gambit leaves him in a much stronger position to dictate outcomes than his two immediate predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, both of whom were preparing to step down from formal office at roughly the same time in their tenure. Xi has rewired the regime’s policymaking ecosystem to deemphasize the formal government bureaucracy, bolstering his ability to steer a course that is favorable to his personal and policy goals. Against this backdrop, this paper reviews the official building blocks that shape what is and is not permissible in CCP politics, as well the mechanics of producing a new top leadership lineup at each party congress, and considers whether these mechanisms might restrict Xi’s freedom of action despite his impressive accrual of personal power atop the CCP hierarchy.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Norms, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

947. 2022, Xi Jinping’s Annus Horribilis: Or is it?

Author:: Christopher K Johnson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: The year 2022 is proving to be a difficult one for China and for President Xi Jinping. Choices like Xi’s embrace of Russia and the zero-COVID policy have prompted sporadic outbursts from the Chinese public and a backlash abroad. Unsurprisingly, this has spawned speculation that Xi is facing political difficulties at home that could hamstring or even disrupt his plan to remain China’s top leader after the 20th Party Congress later this year. Despite the real challenges Xi and the party have faced in 2022, however, this paper will argue that such narratives rest on a series of faulty assumptions about the impetus for Xi’s consolidation of power, the presence of powerful opposition voices within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) system, and the judgment that Xi’s policy approach amounts to a series of blunders that may help his critics as they try to diminish him at the party congress.
Topic:: Economy, Domestic Politics, Olympics, Xi Jinping, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

948. Countering the Hydra: A proposal for an Indo-Pacific hybrid threat centre

Author:: Lesley Seebeck, Emily Williams, and Jacob Wallis
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Enabled by digital technologies and fuelled by geopolitical competition, hybrid threats in the Indo-Pacific are increasing in breadth, application and intensity. Hybrid threats are a mix of military, non-military, covert and overt activities by state and non-state actors that occur below the line of conventional warfare. The consequences for individual nations include weakened institutions, disrupted social systems and economies, and greater vulnerability to coercion—especially from revisionist powers such as China. But the consequences of increased hybrid activity in the Indo-Pacific reach well beyond individual nations. The Indo-Pacific hosts a wide variety of political systems and interests, with multiple centres of influence, multiple points of tension and an increasingly belligerent authoritarian power. It lacks the regional institutions and practised behaviours to help ensure ongoing security and stability. And, because of its position as a critical centre of global economic and social dynamism, instability in the Indo-Pacific, whether through or triggered by hybrid threats, has global ramifications. Because hybrid threats fall outside the conventional frameworks of the application of state power and use non-traditional tools to achieve their effects, governments have often struggled to identify the activity, articulate the threat and formulate responses. Timeliness and specificity are problematic: hybrid threats evolve, are often embedded or hidden within normal business and operations, and may leverage or amplify other, more traditional forms of coercion. More often than not, hybrid threat activity is targeted towards the erosion of national capability and trust and the disruption of decision-making by governments—all of which reduce national and regional resilience that would improve security and stability in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Hybrid Threats, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Australia and Indo-Pacific

949. The cost of Defence ASPI defence budget brief 2022–2023

Author:: Marcus Hellyer and Ben Stevens
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Shortly before the recent election, the previous government released a defence budget that continued its record of delivering the funding it promised in the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP) and subsequent 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU). This year, the consolidated defence funding line (including both the Department of Defence and the Australian Signals Directorate) is $48.6 billion, which is 2.11% of GDP based on the Budget papers' estimates of GDP. That funding represents a very substantial nominal growth of 7.4%. It's the 10th straight year of real growth, but with inflation running hot, it's hard to determine a precise percentage; we've estimated it at 3.8% based on the Budget papers, but, if inflation stays around 5%, the real growth figure will be less. That will hurt Defence. Just as inflation eats into Australian families' budgets, it's eroding Defence's buying power.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Budget, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:: Australia

950. The Offsetting Mechanism in Guangdong Province’s ETS: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Author:: Yang Shu
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: As one of the first low-carbon pioneering provinces in China, Guangdong launched its carbon market in 2013. An important design feature of the Guangdong Province emissions trading system (ETS) has been the use of offset credits. This brief, in both Chinese and English, explores the Guangdong ETS’s offset mechanism and its possible future evolution. The brief builds on discussions in an online research workshop on Guangdong Province’s ETS, conducted June 16 – 17, 2021 by the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements and the Research Center for Climate Change, Guangdong University of Technology, directed by Professor Zeng Xuelan. Information on the workshop, including the agenda, participant list, and most presentations, is here. The Harvard Project’s initiative on Guangdong Province’s ETS is supported by Energy Foundation China.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

951. Increasing the Emissions-Reduction Efficiency of Carbon Trading Schemes in China Under the “30.60” Target: Reflection on the Carbon Markets of Guangdong Province, China

Author:: Chen Shaoqing
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Key Points: • Guangdong currently has two pilot carbon-emissions-trading markets (in Shenzhen — and in Guangzhou, for the remainder of Guangdong Province). The Guangdong—Hong Kong—Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) carbon market will be established in the near future. Therefore, Guangdong Province has regional advantages in innovation in the low-carbon field. • In September 2020, China announced its intention to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To meet its responsibilities under the “30.60” target, GBA needs to choose a less costly and more efficient way to reduce emissions, build resilience to climate impacts, and promote green economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. • In terms of accounting methods, life-cycle accounting from production and consumption perspectives should be the methodological basis for cities, parks, and enterprises to participate in carbon trading. • Trading activity in China’s carbon markets needs to be increased. In the future, carbon markets can gradually be opened to small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, and cross-border trade can also be included in carbon trading mechanisms, with proper risk management. • At present, carbon quotas in local pilots and the national market are allocated freely. In the future, a reasonable mix of auctioned allocation and free allocation can be considered to establish a transparent, fair, and dynamic carbon-quota-allocation mechanism. • After starting with the electricity industry, the national carbon market will continue to include other key high-carbon industries; China should seek balanced development between local pilots and the national carbon market to improve the efficiency of emission reduction.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific

952. Technological Innovation and the Future of Energy Value Chains

Author:: Nicola De Blasio
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The transition from energy systems dominated by fossil fuels1 to ones based on renewable electricity and carbon-free molecules will significantly impact existing value chains2 and forge new pathways and transformation steps from production to consumption. This transition will bring not only substantial cost challenges but also promises to dramatically alter stakeholders’ interactions along value chains. Technological innovation is driving dynamics not seen in the energy sector since the Industrial Revolution, and it will be key to accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy while sustaining growth and achieving prosperity for all. But as new technologies develop to meet growing energy needs, understanding how these technologies will impact existing energy value chains is crucial for navigating the energy transition successfully. To elucidate these dynamics, we must first identify the key technologies3 driving disruptive change and then understand how their deployment at scale might impact existing value chains or cause new ones to emerge.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Innovation, Renewable Energy, Value Chains, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

953. Toward a Better Immigration System: Fixing Immigration Governance at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Author:: Doris Meissner and Ruth Ellen Wasem
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Whether it is record-breaking numbers of unaccompanied child and family migrants crossing the southwest border or unprecedented backlogs in immigration and naturalization petitions, immigration governance is buckling from breakdowns in performance across key Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration components and partner agencies. Rethinking immigration governance at DHS and across the executive branch is essential. Although many of the issues plaguing the immigration system are due to Congress’s failure to update immigration laws to reflect national needs, the management of DHS’ immigration components is the responsibility of the executive branch. DHS’ current chain of command and coordination capabilities are not strong enough to counteract the centrifugal forces of better-resourced, singular operations (e.g. border security and immigration detention). The DHS components and the agencies they collaborate with in other federal departments lack the assuredness and agility to effectively recalibrate and adjust to new circumstances. The challenge for the DHS immigration components is to fuse broader immigration policy and performance outcomes with enduring border and national security imperatives. This paper examines questions of structure—as compared with leadership and policy—and proposes changes that would enable more effective and humane implementation of the nation’s immigration laws. It identifies four key organizational areas of concern—mission, institutional structures, funding priorities, and institutional culture—essential to the vitality and governance of the U.S. immigration system. We argue that immigration is a system that spans both intra-DHS and interagency organizational entities and processes, and that it must operate as a system to successfully carry out its duties. Managing immigration as a system calls for coordinated operational capabilities, decision-making structures, and resource allocations. The paper provides recommendations that can be accomplished within the current authority of the secretary of homeland security and the executive branch. In addition, it closes with select proposals for a longer-term change agenda that would require legislation.
Topic:: Immigration, Governance, Homeland Security, and Borders
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

954. North Korean Cryptocurrency Operations: An Alternative Revenue Stream

Author:: Heeu Millie Kim, June Lee, and Rachel Paik
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: As cryptocurrency has risen to prominence within the past decade, its widespread use has like- wise created great potential for exploitation by malicious actors. With a cyber arsenal capable of reaching cryptocurrency platforms and users, North Korea has increasingly targeted virtual assets as a source of revenue for its regime. In its 2021 final report, the United Nations Panel of Experts estimated that North Korea stole approximately $316.4 million in virtual assets between January 2019 and November 2020. The decentralized nature of the cryptocurrency market is well-suited for a heavily-sanctioned and financially-isolated state like North Korea, especially given tighter trade restrictions and border closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The ease of obscuring ownership of virtual assets and the lack of regulatory oversight make cryptocurrency all the more attractive for North Korea. Although North Korean cyber operations have been widely publicized, the purpose of this report is to focus on three ways North Korea obtains cryptocurrencies, specifically cryptomining, cryptojacking, and fraudulent initial coin offerings (ICOs). Given observed trends and changes in the cryptocurrency environment—namely, the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and over-the-counter brokers—this paper finds that North Korea’s crypto operations are consistent with its national objectives and likely to continue. Second, North Korea’s cryptocurrency operations offer an attractive and transferable model for other financially-isolated states and non-state actors. Finally, governments should work with law enforcement agencies, multilateral institutions, and non-traditional actors to mitigate the national security threat from North Korea’s cryptocurrency activities.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Finance, Cryptocurrencies, and Virtual Assets
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

955. Toward an Integrated North American Emergency Response System

Author:: Juliette N. Kayyem
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Disasters and emergencies have never respected borders, and current climate and development trends are only generating greater challenges for emergency management across North America. Natural disasters are evolving: wildfires are growing in frequency and intensity, advancing across borders, destroying forests, homes, and croplands; hurricanes increase in strength and travel trajectory, reaching farther north and leaving greater destruction in their wake; lengthy droughts persist, which fuel greater fire danger and present an urgent water problem for municipalities and agriculture; and environmental migration is a growing reality. Simultaneously, population growth increases demand for housing, services, food, mobility, and more. Additionally, the next pandemic and human-made disasters, whether terrorist in origin or stemming from the cross-border movement of dangerous substances, must remain a planning and response priority. The rapidly intensifying effects of climate change, the increased globalization and potential spread of infectious disease outbreaks, and the rise in both the threat and impact of disruption to technology or infrastructure pose an expanded risk across North America. As the risk profile evolves, so does the need for improved coordination among the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Although the need for collaboration is clear, the distinct federal systems that operate in each country and their politics complicate intergovernmental collaboration, as do the different roles that national, regional, and private corporations can and should play across all of these separate jurisdictions. Each lever of power, governmental or private sector, provides a unique set of capabilities, yet none can address these urgent issues alone. To meet these challenges, North America must progress beyond the historic approach to cross- border emergency management, which has consisted primarily of sharing information, to a more systemic and operational cooperation. Establishing a North American approach is a key component to more comprehensive and effective emergency management structured to meet current and emerging threats. This paper briefly examines the history of emergency response coordination among the United States, Mexico, and Canada, highlighting some of the major bilateral, regional and non-governmental agreements. It analyzes the challenges in emergency response and the resulting shortfalls of existing agreements, as well as considering lessons from COVID-19 pandemic. These historic and current deficiencies support the creation of a more robust tri-lateral agreement to deal with the pressing nature of evolving emergency response threats in the future. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to adapt the current emergency response systems to function as a North American Emergency Response Compact.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Homeland Security, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: North America

956. Dismantling Migrant Smuggling Networks in the Americas

Author:: Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Migration trends in the Americas recently have undergone a significant transformation. During the past few years, an increasing number of migrants and asylum seekers from different parts of the hemisphere—and other regions of the world, including Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and the African continent—have been undertaking a very long and arduous journey to the United States. Migrant mobility has been facilitated by sophisticated smuggling networks (that operate often in tandem with other criminal organizations) and corrupt officials. The journey to the United States of economic migrants and asylum seekers from developing countries or countries at war is invariably perilous. At the same time, current migration trends and organized mass irregular migrations pose substantial homeland security risks. This paper proposes the dismantling of migrant smuggling networks through intelligence and targeted actions as important elements both of border security and enforcement and humanitarian migration management. In addition to these policies, the U.S. government should collaborate closely with other governments to cooperatively redesign asylum systems.
Topic:: Migration, Homeland Security, Human Trafficking, and Asylum
Political Geography:: North America

957. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context

Author:: Jonathan M. Moch, William Xue, and John P. Holdren
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Biden administration has set a goal of reaching net zero economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.1 Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)—a suite of current and emerging technologies that remove carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from energy or industrial processes and then either sequester the carbon underground or use it for production of a variety of fuels or products2—is very likely to be a key technology on most of the plausible paths for reaching this goal. Among various applications of the technology, CCUS in combination with natural gas powerplants can be used to provide firm baseload electricity or could serve as backup for intermittent renewable power in place of multi-day electricity storage.3 Additionally, CCUS could be used to decarbonize hard-to-electrify industrial processes4 and to provide synthetic fuels for decarbonizing nonelectric energy uses.5 The key barrier to CCUS filling these various roles and living up to its technical potential is high costs relative to current incentives: despite current U.S. government support through tax policy, CCUS is not economically competitive today in most of its applications. Unless and until it becomes so or is required by law, it will not achieve widespread deployment.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Coal, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

958. China’s Rise and U.S. Defense Implications

Author:: Marco Lyons and Natalia Angel
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: What are the international implications of China’s rise? What developments may be expected, and what should U.S. national defense leaders do about the likely effects of these developments? China is a rising power but even if that cannot be said to translate into a security threat to the United States directly, there is little reason to believe that Beijing will not take action to get out from under what it perceives as unfriendly U.S.-led global diplomatic, economic, and security orders. In very broad terms, U.S. defense policy makers will need to address the change from military capabilities for enforcing a liberal international order, to capabilities for both advancing and protecting friendly regional or even sub-regional orders. China’s potential power is sizable and increasing based on a large population and growing national wealth and this potential power makes its neighbors fear that it will become the regional hegemon. Since other states in the region cannot predict if or when Beijing will make a bid for hegemony, relations are beset with uncertainty. Weaker neighbors, like Vietnam and Laos in Southeast Asia, can be expected to accommodate Beijing more while trying to benefit from Chinese economic growth when and where possible.1 The U.S. security allies can be expected to cooperate more with each other while calling for more visible displays of U.S. commitment (including more military force presence).2 India will become more important to U.S. strategy as a link between Australia and Thailand, and the Middle East and Central Asia, and the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

959. The Challenges of Decarbonizing the U.S. Electric Grid by 2035

Author:: Jonathan M. Moch and Henry Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Biden administration has established a national goal of 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 and reaching net-zero economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.1 To realize these goals, the United States must not only transition the production of power, but also build thousands of miles of upgraded or new transmission. The U.S. electric grid consists of 600,000 miles of transmission lines connected to over 1 million megawatts of electricity generation capacity.2 Over 70% of these lines are more than 25 years old, well into their approximately 50-year lifetime.3 Furthermore, to meet President Biden’s 2050 goal, experts claim that over a million miles of new transmission will have to be built over a three-decade time span.4 Most plausible pathways to net-zero emissions call for the electrification of multiple services, such as heating and transportation.5 The resulting increase in electricity demand will require major upgrades to the grid, with some studies suggesting a 60% increase in peak demand by 2050.6 In the United States, the greatest potential wind energy resources are in the Midwest and along the two coasts,7 while the greatest solar energy resources are in the Southwest and in Florida.8 New transmission lines will be needed to carry the electricity from the areas where the renewable resources are most plentiful to distant load centers.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

960. Tunisia’s Secret Apparatus: Why Ennahda’s Deputy Head was detained?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Tunisian Ennahda party on December 31, 2021 announced that the government security forces, acting on orders from the Interior Minister Taoufik Charfeddine have detained the Deputy Head Noureddine Bhiri and former Interior Ministry official Fathi Al-Baladi, and put them under house arrest.
Topic:: Corruption, Domestic Politics, and Ennahda Party
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

961. Beyond Turkey’s ‘zero problems’ policy Motives, means and impact of the interventions in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen and Bob Deen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, but especially after the failed coup d’état in 2016, Turkey’s foreign policy has shifted from ‘zero problems’ to the pursuit of strategic depth and autonomy in its neighbourhood. In 2020, Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus became three theatres for Ankara’s new hard-power tactics, a policy that may well be here to stay (at least until the elections in 2023). This policy brief explores the strategic motives, the means of intervention and the impact of Turkish operations in these three conflict areas. While Turkey’s strategic considerations, modalities and consequences vary greatly from case to case, certain parallels can be drawn. They reveal an overall pattern of a much more assertive Turkey that is increasingly willing to deploy a combination of political and military means to secure its strategic objectives in its immediate neighbourhood.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Hard Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Libya, Syria, and South Caucasus

962. Politicking in Doha: But will the Syrian opposition shift to more pragmatic diplomacy?

Author:: Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) are in dire need of internal renewal and a new political strategy given the deadlock of UN-led peace negotiations. A forthcoming opposition gathering on 4 February in Doha with more than 80 Syrian opposition leaders, activists and academics might offer an opportunity to do so. However, the event’s public face is Riyad Hijab, who is no longer part of the SOC and is seen as pursuing an internal leadership takeover. It is likely that the event will be part of a series that seeks to create a new centre of opposition without creating a new opposition body. Yet, neither Hijab’s internal politicking nor possible legitimacy/efficiency gains from implementation of a parallel SOC internal reform plan will generate a new political strategy for the opposition. This requires creative and pragmatic diplomacy that focuses on, for example, negotiating crossline arrangements between all conflict parties that improve local security and facilitate travel, trade and aid to improve the desperate situation of the Syrian people — in line with the UN’s call for a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE). The habits of dialogue and compromise that can gradually develop in this manner could be leveraged at a later stage to address the more complex issues of power sharing and reconstruction once an appropriate window of opportunity has opened up.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Doha

963. Phoenix or Icarus? European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: With all eyes on the next Russian move in Ukraine, the notion of European strategic autonomy is experiencing a revival. At first glance, this seems overdue given that talks between Washington and Moscow bypass Brussels entirely. But beyond a limited use for the concept to help mitigate vulnerabilities resulting from dependencies and credibly malign actors that can exploit them, the notion remains surplus to requirements. Broad use of the term ‘EU strategic autonomy’, as is in vogue, risks giving populism and nationalism an unnecessary impulse. It also risks unmooring the EU from its collaborative and compromise-oriented essence because it depicts the world outside the EU as a swamp where danger lurks behind every tree. If EU Member States want a more assertive and capable set of institutions that act on their behalf, they should just get on with their unfinished business – the Single European Market, industrial/digital policy, fiscal transfers and defence/security policy.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Strategic Autonomy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

964. Big brother is watching: Evolving relations between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:: Kamal Chomani
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The relationship between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) will remain securitised in the short term due to the unresolved business of a return to the nuclear deal and its possible aftermath, the gradual reduction of the US military footprint in Iraq and the strengthening hold on power of Iran’s conservatives. Iran’s response to the Iraqi Kurdish referendum for independence in 2017 and its suppression of the revival of armed activity by Iranian Kurdish parties operating from Iraq makes it clear that Tehran does not hesitate to intervene to defend its security interests either. Iran is also likely to seek to counter growing Turkish intrusiveness in northern Iraq. Because the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is currently weak and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) stuck between Turkey, dissatisfaction with its own rule and pro-Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) sentiments among segments of Kurdish public opinion, the KRI is more vulnerable to Iranian and Turkish pressure than it used to be. In other words, dependency and dominance will continue to characterise the Iran-KRI relation to Tehran’s benefit for the foreseeable future. Ironically, deeper integration of the KRI into a federal Iraq could reduce this risk in the medium-term.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

965. Turkish interventions in its near abroad: The case of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Author:: Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The primary objective of Turkey’s recent interventions in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is to cut the Gordian knot of its own Kurdish question by engaging the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates militarily until they no longer control any territory. To this end, it is essential that Ankara maintains Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – and especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – as a junior and compliant partner. A secondary Turkish objective is to balance Iran’s influence in Iraq’s disputed territories, mainly by acting as protector of Turkmen and Sunni groups. In the background, the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) desire to maintain regime stability at home plays an important role since its alliance with the ultranationalist-conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and some of its domestic legitimacy depends on the success of Turkish interventions into the KRI. Such interventions have historical precedent, but their scope and scale have increased significantly since 2018, with the effect that Ankara has been able to force the PKK into a defensive position. This has been achieved at the cost of the KDP’s popular legitimacy, an increase in PKK popularity and significant collateral damage among ordinary Iraqi (Kurdish) citizens. Further intensification of Turkish interventions into Sinjar, the Nineveh Plains or Sulaymaniyah will lead to greater tensions with both Baghdad and Iran. An extension of UNAMI’s security sector reform work to include border control can help prevent further conflict escalation by inserting a more neutral actor into this volatile situation.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)

966. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

967. Harnessing EU-Kenya renewable energy relations for a bright future

Author:: Akash Ramnath and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Unlike many of its neighbours, Kenya is progressing towards universal electrification from 100% renewable sources as set out by the country’s Vision 2030 Agenda. This feat, however, does not mean that there are not areas for improvement of its energy profile, especially around grid resilience, energy access and mitigating fluctuating supply and volatile prices. The EU stands poised to help this strengthening, not only due to the bloc’s leading presence in the Kenyan energy transition, but also because of growing geopolitical competition in Africa. The EU aims to beat its competitors in the field of green technologies. Moreover, as part of the external dimension of the European Green Deal the EU aims to avoid further carbon lock-ins, strengthen the ability of countries like Kenya to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and boost the EU’s international influence and visibility. This policy brief enumerates opportunities and offers recommendations for the evolution of EU-Kenya relations in the field of renewable energy.
Topic:: European Union, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Europe

968. Forging European Unity on China: The Case of Hungarian Dissent

Author:: Ties Dams
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: EU Member states can be divided on China, even on issues such as human rights. Often singled out as an agent of division is the Hungarian government of prime minister Viktor Orbán. Hungarian dissent begs the question: how can the EU move forward on China given Hungary’s strategy of obstructive dissent? European cooperation ought not wait for unanimity, nor should it rely on value-politics: member states should play the power game to circumvent or break lingering impasses. Member States should support setting up a 27+1 Forum as the main platform for European China-policy, form a leading group tackling strategic corruption and corrosive capital, and initiative a track 1.5 dialogue on China with Germany and the Visegrád Countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Human Rights, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Hungary

969. Overcoming EU internal dividing lines in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue

Author:: Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Last year saw the 10th anniversary of the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. While leading to results on technical matters, political normalisation of the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo has not been achieved. As part of a broader study on EU foreign policy effectiveness, this policy brief discusses the ways in which EU internal factors have hampered the EU’s effectiveness in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. Specifically, the paper assesses the positions and influence of EU member states vis-à-vis one another and the European institutions, asking how contradictions could be overcome in the future. This assessment is placed in the wider context in which the dialogue takes place, taking into account the state of EU enlargement and foreign power influence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Institutions, Normalization, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

970. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of northern Cyprus

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The primary objective of Ankara’s recent political and military interventions in northern Cyprus is to use the island as the linchpin for its maritime ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean in terms of the geo-economics of claiming and exploring the hydrocarbon resources around the island and expanding its naval power more broadly. Turkey recently upgraded the military utility of the island in line with its Blue Homeland naval doctrine as one track towards realising its primary objective. Another track consists of Ankara politically empowering Turkish Cypriots who advocate for a two-state solution. In doing so, Turkey aims to maintain the status quo, which it views as a ‘two-states-on-one-island’ situation that brings northern Cyprus under increasing Turkish control and pulls it out of the EU’s orbit. In the process, it suppresses the views of advocates of re-unification in northern Cyprus. The EU also stands to lose as the prospect of settling the Cyprus question via a bi-zonal and bi-communal federation – its preferred option – fades from sight.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Turkey, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

971. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

972. Europe Cannot Wait for Unity

Author:: Ties Dams, Giulia Cretti, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The EU is not always united and visible in foreign policy. This policy brief argues it could make more use of leading groups of member states under the coordination of the High Representative and European External Action Service (EEAS), the type of strategic thinking that guided the development of the Strategic Compass, and a Team Europe approach to a wider range of international activities, going beyond development cooperation. One idea would be to formulate a European Council Forum on Economic Security and Sanction policy. The Netherlands could contribute proactively, for instance by advocating for a strategic conversation on the topic of economic power at the level of the European Council.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

973. The West’s struggle in Sudan: Standing with the people while being stuck with the coup regime

Author:: Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. Meanwhile, conniving with Islamist elements of the former al-Bashir regime, the coup alliance is cementing its stranglehold over the state. The historic opportunity for genuine democratic transition risks being lost. This policy brief argues that, by holding on to a transition that has ceased to exist, Western governments have helped consolidate the coup. To counter that course Western donor governments are well advised to 1) increase economic and diplomatic pressure on the coup regime, 2) strengthen the civil society that opposes the coup, and 3) safeguard aid against diversion and political manipulation.
Topic:: Democratization, Coup, Revolution, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

974. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022

Author:: Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance.
Topic:: Governance, Islamism, Legitimacy, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

975. The Dutch position on Kosovo’s visa liberalisation process: Light at the end of the tunnel?

Author:: Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Kosovo remains the last country in the Western Balkans that has not yet attained EU visa liberalisation which would allow its citizens to travel freely to the EU for up to 90 days. In spite of a 2018 positive assessment from the European Commission on the fulfilment of the formal benchmarks, the Netherlands, as well as several other EU member states, have remained opposed to date, citing rule of law concerns. The status quo has resulted in a politicisation of the process and rising frustrations. Unpacking the different positions is essential in order to identify action points for breaking the deadlock on both the Dutch and the Kosovar side. This policy brief therefore assesses the Dutch position on the visa liberalisation process, as well as how that position is perceived in Kosovo. It does so through an analysis of government documents and interviews with policy makers, politicians and civil society representatives. The brief shows how the Dutch narrative is slowly changing, arguing that even if divergences in narratives remain, visa liberalisation could take place towards the end of 2022. It articulates recommendations for both Kosovo and the Netherlands to capitalise on the current momentum.
Topic:: European Union, Visa, Travel, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Netherlands

976. On a Collision Course: Russia’s Dangerous Game in Ukraine

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

977. The End of the Post-Cold War Era: Russia's Adventure in Ukraine Reshapes the Entire World Order

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Whether Russian adventure in Ukraine proves to be a success or a failure, the integration of Russia into Europe has come to a halt. Europe will face division once again, albeit along lines that differ greatly from those of the Cold War.
Topic:: NATO, Integration, Post Cold War, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

978. War in Ukraine enters its second month: serious implications and far-reaching changes

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in its second month witnessed several developments, including the failure of the Russian forces to achieve a quick and decisive military victory and the Russian leadership's reduction of its primary objectives.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

979. After the 25 July constitutional referendum: Codification of autocratic rule heightens Tunisians’ fears of the future

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: While Saied initially had popular momentum behind his programme—he came into office in 2019 with a whopping 72 percent of the vote—his popularity has eroded sharply over the last year as many Tunisians have lost faith in his ability to address economic woes, improve living conditions and fight corruption.
Topic:: Corruption, Constitution, Referendum, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: North Africa and Tunisia

980. Ukraine: Toward a Prolonged War of Attrition Fuelling Great Power Competition

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Russia and China no longer need to play by the rules of the Euro-American international order. It is therefore likely that in this uncertain period of flux, the major four powers will vie to win friends and allies, giving second-tier powers like Turkey and India more influence if they can ably manage their foreign relations and avoid unnecessary alignment with any of the four major powers.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

981. Conflict in Two Theaters? European Misperceptions about the Asia-Pacific

Author:: Elisabeth Suh
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine is being heralded as a moment of strategic clarity for Europe about the return of revisionist power politics. While the immediate neighborhood remains the main concern, European strategists are worried about a second source of risk: violent revisionism in the Asia-Pacific. The United States has already shifted its center of strategic gravity to the Pacific, but conflicts brewing there also require a European response.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Political stability, Conflict, Violence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Asia-Pacific

982. Economic Equidistance is Not an Option: Germany and the US-Chinese Geo-Economic Conflict

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Intensifying US-Chinese rivalry will increase pressure on Germany to support a more hawkish US geo-economic policy. The new German government should give Washington support in as far as US policies seek to create an economic level playing field vis-à-vis China. Given its dependence on international trade and investment, Germany should seek to resist a broader politicization of international economic relations.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Germany, and United States of America

983. Britain, Germany, and the Rise of Competitive Virtue Signaling

Author:: Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: In 2016, British and German officials were clear: they wanted quickly to put Brexit behind them and cooperate on big ticket items like the international rule of law. Now, in 2022, the pair in fact seem to be competing more than they cooperate. Germany wants to shine in comparison with Britain, and the UK sees advantages for its own standing if Germany falls short. This “competitive virtue signaling” defines Germany and the UK’s post-Brexit rivalry, and – oddly – might lead to tighter relations.
Topic:: European Union, Brexit, Rivalry, Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, and Germany

984. Japan's "Economic Security" Measures

Author:: Didi Kirsten Tatlow and Afra Herr
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Japan and Germany face an acute dilemma. China, a key trading partner for both nations, uses political warfare and economic statecraft to advance its interests. Like Germany, Japan has a strong SME economy and auto industry, and has dependencies on China. Yet Japan faces more risk due to its geographical proximity to China and territorial disputes. As global tensions grow, Japan is responding robustly by building economic security. Germany, together with the EU and other like-minded partners, should do the same.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and Germany

985. Promoting the Euro – Countering Secondary Sanctions: Germany Should Push to Complete Monetary Union

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: US-Chinese rivalry will increasingly play out in the geo-economic realm. The use of secondary sanctions – especially secondary dollar sanctions – negatively affects German economic interests. The new German government should therefore intensify efforts to promote the euro as an international currency coequal to the dollar in addition to lending its qualified support to EU anti-coercion policies.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, European Union, Rivalry, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

986. If Russia Uses Migration as a Weapon, Europeans Should Respond In Kind

Author:: Alia Fakhry, Roderick Parkes, and András Rácz
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, we show how the EU can meet this specific threat.
Topic:: Security, Migration, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Ukraine

987. Designing a Geo-Economic Policy for Europe

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Geo-economic policies have become an increasingly important feature of international politics – and not just since the war in Ukraine. The EU has proposed an economic anti-coercion tool to deter third-party coercion. This policy brief analyses the risks and benefits as well as the challenges related to the EU’s proposed deterrence policy based on a review of the academic literature on coercion and the effectiveness of economic sanctions.
Topic:: Sanctions, Coercion, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

988. Sea Change for Europe’s Security Order: Three Future Scenarios

Author:: Christian Mölling, Tyson Barker, David Hagebölling, Afra Herr, and Kai Kornhuber
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine in February has destroyed the European security order. The German government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. It still must envisage and shape a new order. Key factors are whether Europe will be united in strategic policy areas, and how Russia will position itself.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Science and Technology, European Union, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

989. The Economics of Great Power Competition: Why Germany Must Step Up on Defense

Author:: Markus Jaeger
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Without a sound economic foundation, political and military ambitions cannot be sustained. This also applies to the geopolitical competition between the United States and its rivals. So far, America and its allies are economically ahead of Russia and China. But where Russia’s long-term outlook is weak, China’s economic might is rapidly increasing. Despite the war in Ukraine, Washington will have to focus its resources on Asia. In Europe, Germany, with its large financial and economic base, should lead on military spending and enhanced security.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

990. Using Information to Influence the Russian War in Ukraine

Author:: Valentin Weber
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Future scenarios for the war in Ukraine explore how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term. The four possible variations of Russian/Western cohesion – high/high, low/high, high/low, low/low – indicate how each side would define the outcome of the conflict. These possible outcomes, in turn, generate lessons about how a liberal West might use information to tip the scales on an autocratic Russia.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digitization, Information, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

991. Sanctions Against Russia: Five Lessons from the Case of Iran

Author:: Stefan Meister and David Ramin Jalilvand
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to the most comprehensive economic sanctions imposed on a country of this size since the end of the Second World War. Yet sanctions are only an effective tool of foreign and security policy if they are embedded in a sustainable political strategy that considers the cost-benefit analysis for both sides. Looking at the sanctions against Iran can be helpful when it comes to learning lessons about how to deal with Russia.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Ukraine

992. Defining Feminist Foreign Policy in Germany’s National Security Strategy

Author:: Serafine Dinkel, Dana Schirwon, and Leonie Stamm
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Writing a National Security Strategy (NSS) in an acute crisis requires concision and priority-setting. Pairing the NSS with feminist foreign policy (FFP) – two novelties for Germany, which is formulating an overarching strategy for the first time – might seem risky for the government in Berlin. How can FFP serve as an enduring compass for the NSS in diverse policy areas? And how can the NSS process help flesh out FFP and prove its efficacy in addressing major security issues?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, and Feminism
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

993. Don’t Panic! How to Give Germany’s Crisis Management Strategic Footing

Author:: Tobias Bergner and Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Crises cannot be predicted. But that is no excuse for being unprepared. By evaluating how previous crises were handled, governments can improve future crisis management and give it strategic footing. This paper presents reforms based on past experience, and it shows how they might fit into Germany’s planned National Security Strategy (NSS). As such, it rethinks the relationship between crisis response and strategy.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Crisis Management, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

994. China’s Global Vision Vacuum: An Opportunity and Challenge for Europe

Author:: Tim Rühlig
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: China seems to strive to redefine the global order around sovereignty and a strong state. Yet is China engaging in a constitutive process shaped by the global economy; or is it an imperial power pursuing national sovereignty at any cost? In the West, there are very different answers to this question. This ambiguity is not by design but rather indicates that China lacks a coherent vision for the world. If the EU is to exploit this, it needs to understand why.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Economy, and International Order
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

995. Integrating Climate in Germany’s National Security Strategy: How to Avoid Being Derailed by Russia’s Aggression

Author:: Tim Bosch and Kira Vinke
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The uneven distribution of climate impacts and emissions has long hindered a coherent international response to climate change. Moreover, given the return of great power politics, revisionist powers appear ready to weaponize the dependencies that result from attempting to address such challenges multilaterally – even at the expense of their own long-term security. Although the need to respond to Russia’s war in Ukraine has made the political case for fighting climate change harder to make, Germany must prioritize climate as a collective, global dimension of its security as it drafts its National Security Strategy (NSS).
Topic:: Climate Change, National Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

996. Achieving a Safer U.S. Nuclear Posture

Author:: Joseph Cirincione
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • U.S. nuclear posture is on a dangerous path that imperils national security and expends far too many resources. It is not a rational response to external threats but is driven primarily by domestic factors including a hubristic strategy of nuclear supremacy, partisan politics, and entrenched arms lobbies with formidable influence in the Pentagon and Congress. • A safer nuclear policy entails, among other steps, reducing the number of deployed strategic warheads by one-third, to about 1,000, taking nuclear-armed missiles off hair-trigger alert, embracing no first use or sole purpose doctrines, and requiring an additional senior official to authorize launch. Pacts such as AUKUS that encourage the spread of nuclear weapons technology must also be rethought. • If implemented, these policies will greatly reduce risk while maintaining deterrence; they will also lead to significant savings in the national security budget. A majority of independent experts believe that U.S. national security objectives can be met at far lower levels and with a safer nuclear posture, saving hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few decades. • Many of these recommendations can be implemented even if the Biden administration’s upcoming Nuclear Posture Review proves disappointing. The president retains substantial policy and budgetary options for reducing the risk of nuclear war and the cost of nuclear deterrence.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Budget, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

997. Beyond Deterrence: A Peace Game Exercise for the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Frank Aum and Jessica J. Lee
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This report describes a virtual role-playing peace game exercise conducted in October 2021 that simulated diplomatic negotiations aimed at making tangible progress toward improving relations, enhancing security, and building confidence on the Korean Peninsula. The exercise, hosted by the United States Institute of Peace, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, and the Sejong Institute in Seoul, consisted of negotiating teams representing the United States, South Korea, North Korea, and China. The U.S. and North Korean teams emerged as the principal actors in the exercise, determining whether negotiations remained static or moved forward. However, these teams perceived potential losses in negotiations more acutely than potential gains, which resulted in diplomatic inertia. Both teams seemed open to negotiations as long as the other side took the first conciliatory step, but presidential leadership and political will were necessary to overcome inaction. The U.S. team also seemed more driven by the risks of North Korean aggression and duplicity in negotiations than the South Korean team, which led to divergent policy approaches between allies. In addition, the U.S.-China rivalry fueled a zero-sum mentality that hindered opportunities for progress and heightened misunderstandings between the U.S. and South Korean teams. These observations lead to the following policy recommendations for the actors involved: Advancing peace and denuclearization will require the highest level of executive leadership and intervention from all parties to build support for a final agreement. For the United States, that means greater presidential prioritization and increased coordination with Congress. All parties should start with smaller, more reversible measures; mitigate the risk of failure; and highlight potential gains. The United States should consider confidence-building measures that jump-start negotiations but do not undermine its security interests. Washington should strengthen coordination with Seoul on North Korea policy and other key alliance matters to harmonize strategies. To achieve progress, all parties should separate issues pertaining to the Korean Peninsula from the U.S.-China contestations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America

998. Pathways to Pentagon Spending Reductions: Removing the Obstacles

Author:: William D. Hartung
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Despite the changing security landscape, in which nonmilitary challenges ranging from pandemics to climate change are the gravest threats to the American people, United States security spending continues to focus on the Pentagon at the expense of other agencies and other policy tools. • In December 2021 Congress authorized $768 billion in spending on the Pentagon and related work on nuclear warheads at the Department of Energy — $25 billion more than the Pentagon asked for, and higher in real terms than peak budgets during the Korean and Vietnam wars and the Reagan buildup of the 1980s. An additional $10 billion in mandatory spending drove the final figure to $778 billion. There are press reports — yet to be officially confirmed by the administration — that the comparable proposal for spending on national defense in the fiscal year 2023 budget could exceed $800 billion.1 • The three main drivers of excessive spending on the Department of Defense are strategic overreach, pork-barrel politics, and corporate lobbying. • An overly ambitious, “cover-the-globe” strategy that favors military primacy and endless war must be replaced with a strategy of restraint that would provide a more-than-sufficient defense while increasing investments in diplomacy, foreign economic development, and other nonmilitary tools of statecraft. • Measures to weaken the influence of the military-industrial complex in the budget process should include prohibiting the armed services from submitting “wish lists” for items that are not in the Pentagon’s official budget request; slowing the “revolving door” between government departments and the weapons industry, and reducing the economic dependence of key communities on Pentagon spending, along with alternative government investments in areas such as infrastructure, green technology, and scientific and public health research.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Defense Spending, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

999. The Yemen War in Numbers: Saudi Escalation and U.S. Complicity

Author:: Annelle Sheline
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Yemen’s humanitarian crisis demonstrates the consequences and risks of the American decision to enable Saudi and Emirati military action against Yemen. This decision reflects a flawed calculus: the belief that by supporting Arab security partners, the U.S. can prevent them from moving into China’s or Russia’s orbit. As recent events have demonstrated, America’s partners in the Middle East are hedging despite the Biden administration’s extensive support: For example, when the U.N. Security Council voted in February to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE abstained. America’s Gulf partners hope to strengthen their relationships with Moscow and Beijing while continuing to reap the benefits of Washington’s largesse. • American involvement in supporting Saudi-led military action against the Houthis in Yemen, rather than helping to resolve the conflict as the Biden administration claims, is prolonging and escalating the violence. By continuing to support Saudi and Emirati aggression, the U.S. not only deepens its complicity in the slaughter of Yemen’s civilian population; it also risks getting dragged into more active participation in the war on behalf of these two Arab security partners. • Biden committed to ending support for offensive operations in Yemen. His administration alleges that the support America provides to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is merely defensive. Yet by selling weapons it designates as defensive, as well as servicing contracts for spare parts and maintenance for the Saudi air force, the U.S. actively helps the coalition wage its war. Further, this position ignores the billions of dollars in offensive weapons the U.S. previously sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which they continue to use on Yemen. The administration asserts that the U.S. must help Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend against transborder attacks; yet the data show that Houthi transborder attacks pose a minor threat to the Saudis and Emiratis, especially compared with the scale of their attacks on Yemen. • Instead of escalating U.S. involvement in defending the Saudis and Emiratis from the consequences of their aggression, the Biden administration should suspend all arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE until they end their military intervention in Yemen.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

1000. Avoiding the Dangers of a Protracted Conflict in Ukraine

Author:: Anatol Lieven, Sarang Shidore, and Marcus Stanley
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: A protracted conflict in Ukraine looks increasingly plausible. Russia continues to launch attacks on military and civilian targets, and the United States and its partners are increasing shipments of arms to the Zelensky government. Washington is reportedly making plans to support long-term guerrilla warfare against Russian forces, should Kyiv fall. The current path toward a protracted war in Ukraine is highly undesirable and is laden with grave risks to the interests of the United States, Ukraine, and the international community. Such risks include: • a high cost in Ukrainian lives and suffering and the destruction of Ukraine — its infrastructure, institutions, and social fabric; • radicalization of Ukrainian society and a consequent civil war; • escalation to a great-power war, potentially involving nuclear weapons and pitting NATO against Russia, thereby threatening U.S. national security; • a weakening of NATO’s cohesion; • a prolonged global recession that strikes the U.S. as hard as it will any other nation. The United States and its allies should avoid these destructive outcomes by prioritizing support for the Ukrainian government to achieve a diplomatic settlement. Such a settlement will result in a more secure outcome for Ukraine, the United States, the European allies, and the rest of the world. While the details of such a settlement lie beyond this brief’s scope, the progress of Ukrainian–Russian talks indicates that a settlement providing for meaningful sovereignty and independence for Ukraine is possible. Avoiding a protracted conflict also implies that the United States should not adopt maximalist objectives, such as regime change in Moscow or the complete and decisive defeat of Russia. It should instead deploy sanctions to build up Ukraine’s negotiating leverage.
Topic:: NATO, Conflict, Escalation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS